Q3 2025 Trex Company Inc Earnings Call
Speaker #3: Good day . And welcome to the Trex Company . Third quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call . All participants will be in a listen only mode .
Speaker #3: Should you need assistance , please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key , followed by zero . After today's presentation , there will be an opportunity to ask questions , to ask a question , you may press star , then one on a touch tone phone .
Speaker #3: To withdraw your question , please press star . Then two . Please note this event is being recorded . I would now like to turn the conference over to Casey Kotary .
Speaker #3: Please go ahead .
Speaker #4: Thank you everyone for joining us today . With us on the call are Bryan Fairbanks President and Chief Executive Officer and Chris Gandhi , Senior Vice President and Chief Financial officer .
Speaker #4: Joining Brian and print is Amy Fernandez senior vice president , chief legal officer and secretary , as well as other members of Trex management .
Speaker #4: The company issued a press release today after market close containing financial results for the third quarter of 2025 . This release is available on the company's website .
Speaker #4: This conference call is also being webcast and will be available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website for 30 days.
Speaker #4: I will now turn the call over to Amy Fernandez. Amy.
Speaker #5: Thank you . Casey . Before we begin , let me remind everyone that statements on this call regarding the company's expected future performance and conditions constitute forward looking statements meaning of federal securities laws .
Speaker #5: These statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward looking statements .
Speaker #5: For a discussion of such risks and uncertainties , please see our most recent form 10-K and form 10-q , as well as our 1933 and other 1934 filings with the SEC .
Speaker #5: Additionally , non-GAAP financial measures will be referenced in this call . A reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP financial measure can be found in our earnings press release at Trex Company Inc .
Speaker #5: The company's expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise publicly any forward looking statements , whether as a result of new information , future events or otherwise .
Speaker #5: With that introduction , I will turn the call over to Bryan Fairbanks .
Speaker #6: Thank you , Amy , and thank you all for participating in today's call to review our third quarter results and discuss our business outlook .
Speaker #6: We anticipated 2025 would include some recovery in R&R , spend based on historical trends . While there were indications of recovery in the second quarter and into July , consumer demand eased during the rest of the third quarter , resulting in third quarter revenues coming in 5% below the midpoint of our guidance range .
Speaker #6: But there were a number of positive takeaways worth noting . First , our positioning in the pro and Home Center channels continued to serve us well and remains a long term advantage for Trex .
Speaker #6: Second , new products accounted for 25% of our trailing 12 month sales . This compares favorably with last year's third quarter , when new products accounted for 18% of our 2024 nine month sales , demonstrating how well aligned our new product launches are with consumer preferences .
Speaker #6: Third , our railing strategy , now in its second full year , continues to yield positive results in Q3 . Our sales were robust and in line with our expectations .
Speaker #6: And lastly , our profitability was strong with gross profit benefiting from higher sales volumes and efficiencies gained from our continuous improvement projects . And adjusted EBITDA increasing by 33% , inclusive of a 15% increase in spending .
Speaker #6: These results were achieved under mixed market conditions . As we look ahead , we believe these positive achievements in a challenging market will benefit Trex when the buying season begins in January 2026 .
Speaker #6: In tandem with our early buy program , Trex continues to benefit from the strength of our channel positioning , being the leading company in our industry that serves the Pro channel and is both on the shelf and available by special order at the leading home centers .
Speaker #6: We continue to put priority on ensuring that Trex is present wherever the consumer is shopping for decking and railing products . Also , our new products products we launched over the last 36 months have shown impressive growth .
Speaker #6: While it generally takes about three years for new products to gain full traction , we are pleased with the early success of our most recent launches .
Speaker #6: This includes products we added to our Trek Select decking line . We launched three new colors featuring elevated aesthetics and performance , including the industry's first mid-price deck board that includes sun comfortable .
Speaker #6: Our proprietary heat mitigating technology . In addition , Trex decking is submersible and rated for wild urban interface , making it ideal for marine applications in areas susceptible to wildfires .
Speaker #6: We now have the most differentiated mid-priced product on the market , and we continue to see strong demand across our railing portfolio , which we filled out in 2024 with the addition of our innovative cable and glass railing systems .
Speaker #6: And then added our new enhanced steel system and select aluminum systems in early 2025 . Year to date , our railing sales are tracking to the double digit year on year growth that was expected , and we are well positioned to continue on this path in 2026 .
Speaker #6: We continue to elevate branding , marketing and R&D spend in the third quarter to support future growth . Our new performance , engineered for Your life Outdoors campaign , launched earlier this year and it highlights our leadership in delivering outdoor solutions that combine lasting beauty with real world durability .
Speaker #6: These investments in branding in a refreshed marketing campaign have produced significant increases in early indicators of purchase intent . Trex Product Sample program and website traffic are both up 50% year on year , and our improved cost calculator is driving higher completion rates and generating double digit increases in lead generation .
Speaker #6: For our contractors . Another highlight of the third quarter is the continued progress that we're making on our new state of the art plastic processing and decking facility in Arkansas .
Speaker #6: Production rates and yields in our plastic processing operations continue to surpass our initial expectations . These results support our expectation that once fully built , Arkansas will be our most efficient production hub us to capitalize on growth opportunities for years to come .
Speaker #6: Our production level loading strategy , which is now completing its first full annual cycle , has allowed us to increase our operating efficiency and enable us to work even more closely with our Pro channel partners , positioning us to respond quickly when repair and remodel .
Speaker #6: Spend recovers . As we noted in our earnings release today , , enabling we are anticipating a muted fourth quarter and have adjusted our production levels accordingly .
Speaker #6: Our fourth quarter sales guidance considers similar market sell through as seen in the third quarter . Additionally , the fourth quarter is the seasonally lightest period of shipments for decking , railing , and accessories , and we expect that our channel partners will manage their year end inventory to lower levels than in the prior year .
Speaker #6: Looking ahead , Trex is moving forward with strategies to design to capture an increasing share of the conversion from wood to composite decking .
Speaker #6: In addition to including our popular sun comfortable heat mitigating technology in new decking colors to be introduced in 2026 . We have new product launches planned for next year that will include features designed to expand our market penetration .
Speaker #6: We support this increased level of activity and continue to strengthen the advanced consumer awareness of the benefits of Trex decking and railing . We expect that in future periods , our G&A spending will return to pre-COVID levels of approximately 18% of net sales .
Speaker #6: Also , we expect the mix impact associated with another year of double digit growth in railing and additional depreciation related to the expansion of our Arkansas facility to reduce 2026 gross margin by approximately 250 basis points , two thirds of the 250 basis point impact is related to depreciation .
Speaker #6: With the remainder related to mix . In summary , while this year's sales are coming in below our initial expectations of mid-single digit growth , 2025 to date has been a year of significant accomplishment for Trex .
Speaker #6: Despite market headwinds confident that our strategy for long term growth positions us to realize significant gains as R&R spending recovers . Demonstrating this confidence .
Speaker #6: Our Board of Directors has authorized a $50 million share repurchase program . I'm pleased to ask our new Senior Vice President and CFO to handle the third quarter financial review press only came on board a month ago , but he's already making a positive difference at Trex .
Speaker #6: Chris . Thank you . Brian , and good evening . everyone . I'm pleased to deliver my first financial review as Chief Financial Officer of Trex .
Speaker #6: I know many of you already and look forward to reconnecting and getting to know the Trex investors and other . analysts who cover Trex .
Speaker #6: With . that , I'll now I'm review our third quarter 2025 and year to date results . Unless otherwise stated , all comparisons are on a year over year basis compared to the third quarter and first nine months of fiscal 2020 .
Speaker #6: Four . In the third quarter , net sales were 285 million , an increase of 22% compared to 234,000,000 in 2020 . Four , driven by growth across product range , which was led by strength in Railing as well as the lack of channel inventory destocking .
Speaker #7: That we experienced in Q3 of last year . Gross profit was 115 million , a 23.9% increase from 93 million , and gross margin was 40.5% , a 60 basis point expansion from 39.9% in the prior year .
Speaker #7: This increase is primarily the result of lower labor costs and production efficiencies from our continuous improvement programs . Our level of loading program , which tracks has previously discussed , delivered a positive impact in Q3 .
Speaker #7: Our strategic investments in the third quarter included one time start up costs related to the Arkansas facility of 1.4 million and one time railing conversion costs of 0.3 million .
Speaker #7: Excluding these items , adjusted gross profit was 117 million . Selling , general and administrative expenses were 45 million , or 15.8% of net sales , to 39 million , or 16.6% of net sales in the prior year .
Speaker #7: This increase is primarily related to higher spending on branding , and it . As we continue to advance on our marketing strategy and new product innovation .
Speaker #7: Two elements essential to our success as the category leader in composite decking and railing . In the third quarter . One time expenses related to digital transformation activities compared and the start up of the Arkansas facility , where approximately 2.4 million .
Speaker #7: Excluding these one time expenses , G&A expenses were 43 million or 15% of net sales . Net income was 52 million . In the third quarter , or $0.48 per diluted share , an increase of 27.7% from 41 million , or $0.37 per diluted share , excluding the previously mentioned one time charges incurred in the third quarter .
Speaker #7: Adjusted net income was 55 million , or $0.51 per diluted share . Adjusted EBITDA was 90 million , up 33% compared to 68 million in the prior year , led by sales growth across our product lines , expanded gross profit margin and stable year on year and expense from a year to date perspective .
Speaker #7: Net sales for the first nine months of 2025 totaled 1 billion , a 3% increase compared to 984 million in the first nine months of 2024 .
Speaker #7: Net income was 188 million , or 1.75 per diluted share , a 13% decrease compared to 217 million , or $1.99 per diluted share .
Speaker #7: Excluding one time charges incurred year to date , adjusted net income was 198 million , or $1.84 per diluted share , and adjusted EBITDA was 314 million .
Speaker #7: Year to date , operating cash flow was 293 million , compared to 152,000,000 in 2020 . For . The increase was primarily due to the timing of working capital changes related to our level loading and channel inventory strategy .
Speaker #7: We anticipate ending the year with inventory levels at approximately the same level as the end of year 2024 . Given our continued strong cash flow generation .
Speaker #7: We will look to repurchase up to $50 million in shares through the end of 2025 , depending on equity market conditions . We have invested 188 million in capital expenditures year to date , primarily related to the building out of the Arkansas facility .
Speaker #7: Now turning to our guidance for the remainder of 2025 , as noted in today's earnings release , we now expect several factors to impact fourth quarter sales , bringing them well below our original expectations .
Speaker #7: As Brian mentioned , we expect consumer demand to remain muted in the fourth quarter , which is also the seasonally slowest time of the year .
Speaker #7: In addition, we expect our pro channel partners to lower their inventories through the end of the year. Due to these factors, we are revising our full year net sales and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance ranges.
Speaker #7: We now expect full year net sales to range from 1.15 to 1.16 billion , approximately flat with our reported sales in 2024 . We also expect our full year adjusted EBITDA margin to range from 28 to 28.5% .
Speaker #7: This net sales guidance implies a Q4 sales range from $140 million to $150 million. The implied low double-digit Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin considers the impact on gross margin of reduced capacity utilization rates and continued spending on branding and marketing to accelerate future growth.
Speaker #7: Full year guidance for our other financial metrics include a expenses to be approximately 16.5 to 17% of net sales on an unadjusted basis , interest expense less than 2 million , and depreciation in the range of 60 to 65 million for the full year .
Speaker #7: We are projecting an effective tax rate of approximately 26%, and capital expenditures are projected to be approximately $210 million to $220 million for the full year.
Speaker #7: As we continue the development of the Arkansas campus . The change is related to the timing of cash flows related to the completion of the project .
Speaker #7: With that , I will now turn the call back to Brian for his closing remarks . Brian .
Speaker #6: Thanks, Chris. Our business landscape is changing. Recent merger and acquisition activity in both the Pro channel and the home centers has increased.
Speaker #6: The importance of brand recognition and product differentiation in capturing and market demand . As the market leader with the largest network of contractors , dealers , distributors and home centers , Trex is best positioned and fully committed to gaining the greatest share of the industry's long term growth opportunities .
Speaker #6: Operator . I'd now like to open the call to questions .
Speaker #3: We will now begin the question and answer session . To ask a question , you may press star , then one on your touch tone phone .
Speaker #3: If you are using a speakerphone , please pick up your handset before pressing the keys . If at any time your question has been addressed or if you would like to withdraw your question , please press star then two .
Speaker #3: We ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up . At this time , we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster .
Speaker #3: The first question today comes from Ryan Merkel with William Blair . Please go ahead .
Speaker #8: Hey everyone . Thanks for the question . Brian , I want to start off with a sell through . What was it in third quarter ?
Speaker #8: I know you said the fourth quarter . You're assuming the same , but also , what was the surprise in the quarter ? Where was the slowdown ?
Speaker #8: Was it the Pro Channel? Was it retail? Just any more color there? And also, on cadence, it sounded like it slowed after July.
Speaker #6: Yeah . And a year to date basis we saw a low single digit sell through as we had our last earnings call . We did see that accelerate June July giving us some confidence that that was going to continue as the year went on .
Speaker #6: Come August and September , we did not see that , did not see that go on . And it wasn't channel dependent . It was really across all of the channels .
Speaker #6: Now we expect on a full year basis from a sell through perspective to be low , single digit on the year , while revenue will be flat with the prior year .
Speaker #6: We do expect to see some inventory come out of the channel , which will support that growth .
Speaker #8: Okay . Got it . And then can you just clarify why now that you're increasing the marketing spend and the G&A , is it the soft markets ?
Speaker #8: Is it new products ? Is it rising competition ? And I just want to clarify , if you're guiding SG&A to 18% of sales in 26 , it sounds like you are , but just want to .
Speaker #8: .
Speaker #6: We are guiding to 18% and we feel that the marketing is extremely important , especially in a softer market , to make sure that we are getting the Trex name in front of anybody who may be building a deck .
Speaker #6: We are also seeing more competitive spending from others out there in the marketplace . So backing away from that in a in a weaker market , we don't feel is the right thing to do .
Speaker #6: We've got some great messaging out there . We are starting to see improvements with that early indicator side of things . We just need a little bit better consumer confidence around that and better feeling around repair and remodel .
Speaker #6: And I think we'll start seeing some very attractive growth rates again .
Speaker #8: All right . Thanks for the color . Pass it on .
Speaker #6: Thanks , Ryan .
Speaker #3: Next question comes from Colin Barron with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Speaker #9: Good evening . Thank you for taking my questions . I guess just given the lower inventory in the channel in the fourth quarter and the weaker trends that you're you're seeing any kind of handhold you can give around how you're thinking about early 2026 and the , the load in ahead of decking season for next year .
Speaker #9: Just given the softer demand that you guys are seeing as we exit this year .
Speaker #6: I expect that we will see a robust early by . I don't worry as much about early buy per se . It's about getting that product staged for when the season turns on .
Speaker #6: I'm more concerned about the overall growth for the year . We've got our normal programs put together and we will get product staged out in the marketplace .
Speaker #6: We haven't laid out those targets as of yet . We'll give more detail in the in the end of the year . Call on that .
Speaker #6: But I expect the program to be similar to what we've seen in prior years.
Speaker #9: That's helpful . Color . And then on SG&A spend any how quickly does that spend usually turn into sort of an acceleration in demand and in periods past where you might have seen a little bit of a softer R&R and you ramp up that spending , I guess .
Speaker #9: Just curious as to how quickly you think you can see a return on that money .
Speaker #6: Well , I think the best way to look at is from an overall industry perspective . We've got a repair and remodel industry that's going to be down low , single digits .
Speaker #6: We expect our sell through is going to perform up low single digits , so that spending that we're doing from a branding perspective , as well as the industry that we're in , the conversion opportunity against wood does give us a better opportunity for payoff with that additional spending .
Speaker #6: And I mentioned to the last question that came up , we are seeing a more competitive market environment from a spending perspective related to others that are out there .
Speaker #6: Advertising . We need to make sure that Trex name is in front of buyers as they're looking to make that decision . It's more than just about having the product everywhere that that consumer is going to be buying .
Speaker #6: We want to make sure they're walking in the door to make the purchase , or they're sitting with their contractor . They've already made that decision .
Speaker #9: All right . Thank you very much .
Speaker #6: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs . Please go ahead .
Speaker #10: Thank you . My first question is on the pricing side , Brian , you talked about realizing some low single digit pricing in the past .
Speaker #10: I guess given the environment that we're in , are you still expecting that to come through , or can you talk a bit about price , cost and how that is coming together ?
Speaker #6: We did take some pricing coming out of the second quarter . We also talked about not really realizing much of that during the third quarter .
Speaker #6: We did have people buy ahead and we went ahead and shipped that . Of course , during the quarter itself , we saw a little bit come through in September .
Speaker #6: And then , of course , with lower revenue in the fourth quarter , you don't see too much impact for that .
Speaker #10: Right , okay . And then maybe turning back to brand , you obviously have a very well brand and something that is recognized by a lot of consumers .
Speaker #10: As you think about spending on the marketing and helping to drive that recognition , are there things that you're changing in your approach to your ad in marketing
Speaker #10: spend , and pricing how are you able to leverage some of the investments you've made in the last couple of years around digital and data gathering ?
Speaker #10: To further that and make sure that spend is really effective?
Speaker #6: Yeah . Jody Lee , who is our senior vice president of marketing , joined us . I guess , about 5 or 6 months ago at this point .
Speaker #6: And we're already starting to see the benefits of some of the changes that she's making from a messaging perspective , how we're getting in front of those consumers .
Speaker #6: I expect as she gets a full year under her belt and we move into next year , that we'll even have more engaging programs related to that , that marketing message .
Speaker #6: So I'm pretty excited about the things that are on the plate as we move forward .
Speaker #10: Okay. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.
Speaker #6: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from RAF Jedrusik with Bank of America . Please go ahead .
Speaker #11: Hi . Thanks for taking my question , Brian . How do you feel about the conversion rate of wood to composite and your market share trends within the category today versus where it's been historically or year to date versus where it's been historically ?
Speaker #6: Yeah , last quarter we reported that through the end of 2024 , there was 170 basis points of conversion from wood to composites .
Speaker #6: I don't have new data since that time frame . We do have other pieces of data that come in from the channel itself .
Speaker #6: And what we are seeing is that there is continued conversion that's out there . I wouldn't say it's probably fine enough that I could put a basis point of conversion on it , but the data would indicate that consumers are still trending towards those composite products .
Speaker #6: Our strategy with our enhanced basics , which is really that wood fighter at about two x the price of wood , and then our enhanced naturals product , roughly three x , the price of wood , giving that consumer the opportunity to see they can afford a Trex deck and be able to move up to a higher end aesthetic .
Speaker #6: With that enhanced naturals that continues to be an effective strategy .
Speaker #11: Okay . And then just with the conversion continuing , just kind of understanding the step up in a are you mentioned the release date , you're going back to sort of the pre-COVID level ?
Speaker #11: I have to go back to 2017 to get to 18 . Around 18% of a percent of sales . Your sales base is two times higher than that point .
Speaker #11: Is this sort of this level of spend like a catch up where there's been under investment and this is an opportunity , or do we think about it as you know , this is sort of just an appropriate longer term term run rate .
Speaker #6: Or recall during Covid itself . We pulled way back on the marketing side of things . So we're back to a more normalized type marketing .
Speaker #6: It's really in reaction to two things . First , the weaker market condition , we believe that that that sales , excuse me , that marketing in conjunction with our sales effort can drive better opportunity for us in the marketplace .
Speaker #6: And longer term , as we move forward and we start getting back to the growth levels that Trex is normally used to , I expect that we'll be able to see some leverage opportunities within SG&A .
Speaker #6: Again .
Speaker #11: Okay , okay . Great . Thank you .
Speaker #6: Thanks , Ralph .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Keith Hughes with Truist. Please go ahead.
Speaker #12: Thank you . Question . Seltzer is lower than you've anticipated , as you said , but this seems like a pretty drastic reduction in production and ordering from your customers .
Speaker #12: Are there anticipating business to continue to deteriorate going into next year ?
Speaker #6: We are expecting we had original expectation that we were going to be 5 to 7% , and instead we expect that to be in low single digit levels .
Speaker #6: So that difference is really what's coming out. We're seeing the largest piece of that, of course, in the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaker #6: I'm not expecting anybody to be building any inventories as we move into the end of the year . I think the other piece that's important to note is the channel has gotten better in managing inventory .
Speaker #6: We have a lot of different SKUs between the different decking colors that we have, and the different railing products that we have in our channel.
Speaker #6: Partners continue to get more efficient each year in the way they're running their supply chains . So that's why we expect the inventory to to be down as we move out into next year .
Speaker #6: We're coming off of three years of down repair and remodel. More and more pent-up demand is out there, and at some point, that's going to break free, and we'll be ready to take advantage of it.
Speaker #12: If seltzer stays where it is , will you run back , go back to some normal production in the first quarter ?
Speaker #6: We will finish our inventory roughly in line with where where we were last year , and we'll keep that . We'll be a little bit of an increase in the in the new year .
Speaker #6: If we see stronger market conditions, we'll be able to bring on a couple more lines without any issue.
Speaker #12: Okay . Thank you .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Cat and Mantura with BMO capital . Please go ahead .
Speaker #13: Thank you . Brian , can you just remind us some of the , you know , incremental costs that you had in the first half of 25 related to enhanced retooling ?
Speaker #13: Should we expect that to sort of reverse in 2026? And how much can you quantify that for us?
Speaker #6: We didn't call that specifically out as a one timer . It was under $5 million in the first half of the majority of it .
Speaker #6: In the first quarter . And then a much lesser piece of it in the second quarter . But no , I would not expect that to repeat next year .
Speaker #13: Understood . Got it . And then any sort of early read into how CapEx would shake out for 2026 , given that you are sort of almost at the end of of the big Arkansas plant ?
Speaker #6: Yeah , we still have 40 , $50 million of little Rock to go . That'll be in next year . And the other side of our cap spending will be be down considerably as well .
Speaker #6: So we've talked about maintenance of business CapEx being in the 5 to 6% , but probably even in the next few years because of we have a new plant that could be a little bit lower than that .
Speaker #6: So we're probably looking around the $100 million range or so .
Speaker #13: That's all in Brian .
Speaker #6: Yeah .
Speaker #14: Yeah .
Speaker #13: Perfect . Okay . Got it . Thanks very much . Good luck .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Tim Wolf with Baird. Please go ahead.
Speaker #15: Hey , guys . Good . Good afternoon . Hey , Brian , on the gross margin headwinds in 2026 , the 250 basis points that you're talking about with with DNA and just railing mix , are there are there any offsets to that that we should think about .
Speaker #15: Because I guess if we have a couple hundred basis points next year of of of margin compression , it does seem like it might be hard to , to actually generate gross profit growth or EBITDA growth .
Speaker #15: Just trying to kind of understand what might offset that mix , that mix headwind .
Speaker #6: Yeah , we've got some other costs that are coming into the business as well . Of course , you've got higher labor costs , just general inflation that in our continuous improvement program should be offsetting that .
Speaker #6: comes Includes .
Speaker #6: That side of the business right now we're calling this out specifically because this depreciation is coming in . We don't have an offset for it next year .
Speaker #6: The following year as we get into production in little Rock and we lay out the most optimum footprint for our production levels , then I think there is opportunity to be able to offset that .
Speaker #6: And then from a mix perspective , this is related to tariffs on many of the new products that we have coming in , whether it's aluminum or steel , that's being sourced here in the US , the prices of those products have gone up because of tariffs or whether we're bringing it in from overseas .
Speaker #6: So we are not able to capture all of the revenue to offset those tariffs in the general market conditions at this point.
Speaker #15: Okay , okay . Understood . And then I guess as you think about the sell through
Speaker #15: you know , this year , just to clarify , the the low single digits , does that include or exclude the double digit growth that you're seeing in railing .
Speaker #15: Okay okay . Sounds good . Thank you guys .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Michael Reinhart with J.P. Morgan . Please go ahead .
Speaker #16: Thanks . Good afternoon everyone . Just wanted to see if I could get a little more granular . If possible , on the three , two , for .
Speaker #16: Q . The three Q miss versus guidance and for Q , you know , reduction , you know , in total is about 65 million plus or minus a little , you know , 15 in the third quarter , just trying to get a sense when you think about that , how much is just due to the softer market backdrop relative to your prior expectations versus the , you know , reduction in inventory and , you know , also just trying to understand by price point , you know , there was some differentiation in the market earlier in the year in terms of low end versus mid to high end .
Speaker #16: And if you're seeing any differentiation in the second half .
Speaker #6: Sure , through the numbers that we already provided , we assumed prior guidance 5 to 7% growth . Same thing from a sell through perspective .
Speaker #6: Now we're talking about a low single digit type growth . So let's call roughly half of it a little bit more . Is coming from from market weakness side of it .
Speaker #6: And the remainder is coming out of inventory within the channel as it relates to the various product lines . If we look back , the past couple of years , excluding 2025 , we did see meaningful differences at the high end of the market versus the entry level products .
Speaker #6: That has not been nearly as impactful . It's really just been kind of broad based at this point where there isn't any one level of the product line that's Overperforming or underperforming .
Speaker #6: We've just seen it kind of across the entire decking railing side of the business . Now , we did mention with the new products , railing is growing nicely , but again , from a from a decking perspective , there's really no no major difference from a growth perspective , the high versus the low .
Speaker #16: Okay . I appreciate that , Brian . Also , I just wanted to give you a little clarification if possible , around the 18% SG&A number for next year .
Speaker #16: If that's kind of a a percentage that you would , you know , Peg , to any top line number or is it more of a comment on an absolute basis ?
Speaker #16: You know , where you're trying to peg a certain dollar number and that 18% could be higher or lower based on how revenues actually come out .
Speaker #6: With the planning that we're working on at this point , we believe 18% is the number will be . Obviously , that could change if we see a considerably stronger market or a considerably weaker market on it .
Speaker #6: But it's the best planning number we have for everybody right now.
Speaker #16: Okay . So . Maybe ask another way . You know , with that 18% reflect kind of like a low single digit type top line growth , which if you're thinking maybe the market's flat and you and composite little bit , is that a reasonable way to think about it ?
Speaker #6: We'll provide further guidance on revenue during the end of the year. Call.
Speaker #16: All right . Thank you .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS . Please go ahead .
Speaker #17: Hey , guys . Thank you for taking my questions . The first one is . Any thoughts on your largest competitor
Speaker #6: not change our strategy with Boise . I think what you've seen with various distributor announcements just recently here outperforms a is just normal end of the year type movements .
Speaker #6: As you see products coming into a location that really hadn't been carrying much , much in the way of decking . And then in other cases , locations that are moving over to Trex , which are moving out of competitive product along the way .
Speaker #6: So I wouldn't read too much into that .
Speaker #17: Okay . And then I know it's tough to tell in a short period of time , but do you get any sense that you're seeing share shifts among you and your largest competitors ?
Speaker #17: You know , keeping side out of the equation just on the opposite side .
Speaker #6: Our sales team , we're very active in the market tracking what our contractors are doing , understanding overall market growth of where we are .
Speaker #6: We're not seeing indications of that at the ground level .
Speaker #17: Okay . Thank you guys .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens . Please go ahead .
Speaker #18: Hey good afternoon . So in the kind of touching again I know I know , this has been discussed a lot , but
Speaker #18: The wood, the 18% SGA next year, I think. Branding costs have historically run, you know, about 6% or so of sales.
Speaker #18: If memory serves me . And so is , is that roughly the way we should be thinking about , you know , branding spend as part of the kind of 18% SGA mix or , you know , would it be higher here as you ramp ?
Speaker #6: Absolutely . As we this year , you've seen a higher brand spend , next year . We expect that will be the elevated again in a week market .
Speaker #6: Market background . We haven't provided a specific percentage on that . We can do that in the next call . But assume a good portion of that is related to marketing .
Speaker #18: Yep . Okay . And and then I think I think it was touched on just a bit here . But you know , any any way that that we could , you could maybe help us think about , you know , how this , this increase in branding or this ramp could , could translate into or maybe drive , you know , more demand how quickly this spin could , could kind of translate into to better dollars for you guys revenue for you guys .
Speaker #6: Yeah . What we have seen is with the increased branding this year , we've seen the purchase indicators increase . We've not seen that turn into the level of sales growth that we're satisfied with , but it definitely shows there's consumer interest in doing decking products projects in the marketplace .
Speaker #6: So we do need a little bit of economic tailwind to start breaking some of these projects . Through . But backing off on marketing and waiting for those those tailwinds to start is not going to be an effective strategy , especially when our competitors are out with very , very heavy marketing spend .
Speaker #18: Yep . Understood . Thanks , Brian , for taking my questions . Best of luck .
Speaker #14: Thanks , Craig .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Jeffrey Stephenson with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.
Speaker #19: Hi . Thanks for taking my questions today . So Brian , given the step down , you're expecting in 2026 CapEx expectation , could that give you some flexibility to increase other capital priorities such as share repurchases , given the higher expected free cash flow generation next year ?
Speaker #6: I think you're already seeing the the first example of that , where we do expect that we will be in the market depending upon market conditions , to buy back $50 million of shares .
Speaker #6: We have been somewhat muted in being into the marketplace because there have been a lot of capital going into the going into little Rock , but over the longer term , we will be generating a significant amount of free cash flow .
Speaker #6: If you look at the years when we generated that cash flow , in a lot of cases , we used it for buybacks .
Speaker #6: So they'll still be opportunities for that . So this is the first indicator of usage of that higher free cash flow .
Speaker #19: Got it . Now that that makes sense . And I was wondering if you could give additional , you know , color on the recent expanded partnership with Weeks Forest Products which helps further strengthen your relationship with Snavely .
Speaker #19: Can you talk about how this strengthens your Midwest distribution footprint? And could there be additional opportunities to further expand partnerships with key distribution partners after the Boise announcement?
Speaker #19: You know , caught some investors by surprise ?
Speaker #6: Yeah , we're really pleased with the relationship , the furthering of our relationship with weeks Minneapolis marketplace is a significant marketplace , and we felt that they'd be be in a great , great addition .
Speaker #6: Beyond that , I'm not going to get into any of the other commercial agreements we may be working on .
Speaker #19: Okay .
Speaker #14: Thank you . Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Trevor Allison with Wolfe Research . Please go ahead .
Speaker #20: Hi . Good evening . Thank you for taking my questions . First question related to your long term EBITDA margin targets with the increased expectation for SG&A spending , you've called the new level of CA spend as being normalized .
Speaker #20: So should we think of your long term EBITDA margin target still being around 34% , or did the prior margin target assume a little less competition in the market , and thus the higher CA spend reduces your long term target from that 34% level ?
Speaker #6: Now that 34% assumed a much stronger underlying repair and remodel marketplace in a mid-single digit type level , we haven't seen that in three years .
Speaker #6: Hopefully we'll see it next year . But I would say the indicators aren't great . I'd be happy if we start to see growth back in repair and remodel as we get into next year .
Speaker #6: So, it’d be a real challenge to be able to achieve that level by the original target date. But we do need to see that underlying economic strength to be able to get to those kinds of numbers.
Speaker #20: Okay . Makes sense . And then second question on year end inventory , I think we've been at or somewhat below normalized inventory exiting the year the last few years .
Speaker #20: Can you talk about where you're expecting days of inventory in the channel to be exiting for Q3 this year versus more normalized levels?
Speaker #20: Thanks .
Speaker #6: Yeah , we've talked in the past about week supply generally , end of the year tends to be a little bit a little bit higher .
Speaker #6: Just because you've got lower , lower demand in that 6 to 8 week type range . And then during the busy part of the season , you're going to be right around that , that four week range or so .
Speaker #6: So we think that that that 6 to 8 week probably is on the lower end of that part of it . I'm not all that worried about it .
Speaker #6: From an inventory perspective , because it is a slower part of the season . And I expect our distributors as well as dealer partners , will take advantage of the early buy opportunities that are presented .
Speaker #20: Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead.
Speaker #17: Hi . Good evening .
Speaker #21: You know , the you mentioned the mix in railing and Arkansas depreciation reducing the gross margin next year by 250 Bips . I was just wondering if there was any kind of , you know , cadence for that in terms of the year over year headwind , is it pretty ?
Speaker #21: You know , weighted pretty evenly over the four quarters of the year because we could potentially kind of dissipate into the end of the year , or is there any kind of cadence we should keep in mind when we model it out ?
Speaker #6: I mentioned the two third one third split , the one third is going to be pretty consistent by quarter . The two thirds of it will build over the course of the year .
Speaker #6: As we check out all of the lines that depreciation will turn on . So you'll start to see that late in Q1 building in Q2 and then into Q3 .
Speaker #21: Okay , okay . That's helpful . And then I'm just curious . I mean , when you talk to channel partners and contractors , is there any common theme in terms of the consumer , the end buyer in terms of what maybe has created this sort of extra caution ?
Speaker #21: You know , are there increased concerns around job loss or tariffs or , you know , obviously you have a lot of partners and channels , but I just I'm curious kind of qualitatively if there's any theme that that kind of came up as you saw this , you know , just increased caution from buyers .
Speaker #6: Yeah , I do hear all of those . More from just a general economic perspective of people stepping back , making sure that they have job security .
Speaker #6: When I talk to our contractors , the biggest thing that we hear back from their perspective , it is a more competitive marketplace .
Speaker #6: And when they're out and they have job opportunities , generally speaking , that consumer or a couple of years ago , they might be getting 1 or 2 contractors coming in .
Speaker #6: Now , in many cases , they've got four coming in to give them bids . So people are really looking for the best deal that they can get on the projects .
Speaker #6: And I'm sure not all of them are coming to fruition if they don't get to the numbers they're expecting.
Speaker #21: Okay , that's very helpful . Color . I'll turn it over .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Phil Ng with Jefferies . Please go ahead .
Speaker #22: Hey , Brian , in the past , you guys would give us a early look on EBITDA margins for the next year . If I kind of take your framework , you've given us for this year , call it 28 , 28.5% EBITDA margins , you called out a few headwinds , 80 basis points on mix , on the gross margin side , 30 basis points , give or take on SG&A .
Speaker #22: Is that the right way to think of it ? Just taking the 25 and those would be the drags . Is there any offset ?
Speaker #22: We should be mindful of? I mean, certainly volume leverage will be impactful. And you're obviously taking some downtime in the fourth quarter to work down inventory.
Speaker #22: But help us think through what you've done . Margins could look like next year , at least directionally .
Speaker #14: Yeah , I'd .
Speaker #6: Love to give you some additional detail on that . And you're right . Normally we would provide some commentary on that during our third quarter call , given the difficulty in understanding where the consumer is , what things are going to look like for next year , we're not going to try to do that in this call .
Speaker #6: We will give definitely more detail as we get into the end of the year . Call .
Speaker #22: I mean , I guess let me ask you , do you have any offsets that we should be mindful that on the continuous improvement side , that should kick in , that you guys are looking to tackle or .
Speaker #6: I did mention earlier that we will have continuous improvement activities that will be underway . Those activities will offset other inflation , other costs that are coming into the business .
Speaker #6: We're calling out this 250 now because we don't have this 250 covered .
Speaker #22: That's helpful . Any early read in terms of placement with the channel , whether it's on the wholesale side or retail , I know there's been some consolidation of the distribution side in the West Coast .
Speaker #22: That might be an opportunity for you guys. Are you at one of your bigger retail channel partners? But just an early look front.
Speaker #22: And he talked about competition being more elevated on the marketing side . Anything on the rebate side . We should be mindful as well .
Speaker #14: Yeah , there's .
Speaker #6: Always going to be commercial discussions underway with all of the the larger partners that are out there . We do expect that there will be some additional pressures from a from an incentive perspective in the marketplace as well , especially with some of the the larger providers of of of sales opportunity .
Speaker #22: Okay . Appreciate it . Thank you so much .
Speaker #14: Thanks , Bill .
Speaker #3: The next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson . Please go ahead .
Speaker #23: Great . Thanks . Just one question for me on the railing side . I believe there were certain retail shelf space ads this year that that have been beneficial .
Speaker #23: How do you think about the ability to sustain this year's momentum into 2026 , as you potentially lap that ? And is the pro channel performance pretty comparable as we look between the two .
Speaker #6: What we tend to see with new product launches and shelf space wins , whether it's in the Pro channel or within retail that it continues to build over the first couple of years .
Speaker #6: So we've been very pleased with what we've seen with the new products this year . We expect that we will see considerable opportunity as we take advantage of that , share that space on the shelf , as well as working with contractors to be able to convert them away from competitive products that we're we're confident that we've got the right strategy as we drive forward on railing .
Speaker #23: Okay , appreciate the color . Thank you .
Speaker #14: Thanks .
Speaker #3: Next question comes from Matthew Bouley with Barclays . Please go ahead .
Speaker #24: Good evening everyone . Thank you for taking the questions on the comments that your competitors are out with , with heavy marketing spend .
Speaker #24: I'm wondering if that has had an impact on market share at the dealer or contractor level already , or is it not yet , but you're seeing the marketing out there and you want to prevent the share shifts .
Speaker #24: Or perhaps your retail partners are asking for more marketing spend . Just kind of help us understand how that lay . The land is playing out .
Speaker #24: Thank you .
Speaker #6: As I mentioned to an earlier question , we've not seen those share shifts . We do keep a close look at from a ground level perspective , but we also recognize that it is a very competitive marketplace .
Speaker #6: We've got aggressive competitors in the market . They're spending a lot on marketing and dialing back when we're starting to see those consumers come through and see the purchase indicators improving with it , we think would be the wrong way to go .
Speaker #24: Okay . Understood . And then secondly , I think you said earlier that you're looking for inventory levels to be I think you said flat year over year to end 2025 .
Speaker #24: And correct me if I'm wrong , but is there a scenario where you would look to take down inventory levels depending on how the market is shaping up ?
Speaker #24: Thank you .
Speaker #6: We saw a really significant shift in the market from a downward perspective . I don't see indicators of that at this point , but again , I don't see anything that would cause that to be the case right now .
Speaker #24: Okay . Thanks , Brian . Good luck guys .
Speaker #14: Thanks , Matt .
Speaker #3: This concludes our question and answer session . I would like to turn the conference back over to Bryan Fairbanks for any closing remarks .
Speaker #6: Thanks for participating in today's call . We look forward to seeing you at upcoming conferences and meetings . Good evening .