Q3 2025 Imperial Oil Ltd Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Please stand by. Good day, and welcome to the IMPERIAL OIL LTD Q4 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Peter Shaw, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Operator: Please stand by. Good day and welcome to the Imperial Oil Q3 2025 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Peter Shaw, Vice President, Investor Relations.
Speaker #2: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 earnings conference call. I am joined this morning by Imperial Senior Management Team, including John Whelan, Chairman, President, and CEO; Dan Lyons, Senior Vice President, Finance and Administration; Sheryl Gomez Smith, Senior Vice President of the Upstream; and Scott Maloney, Vice President of the Downstream.
Peter Shaw: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 earnings conference call. I am joined this morning by Imperial Oil's senior management team, including John Whelan, Chairman, President, and CEO; Dan Lyons, Senior Vice President, Finance and Administration; Cheryl Gomez-Smith, Senior Vice President, Upstream; and Scott Maloney, Vice President, Downstream. Today's comments include reference to non-GAAP financial measures. The definitions and reconciliations of these measures can be found in Attachment 6 of our most recent press release and are available on our website with a link to this conference call. Today's comments may contain forward-looking information. Any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance, and actual future performance and operating results can vary materially depending on a number of factors and assumptions.
Speaker #2: Today's comments include reference to non-GAAP financial measures, the definitions and reconciliations of these measures can be found in the attachment 6 of our most recent press release, and are available on our website with a link to this conference call.
Speaker #2: Today's comments may contain forward-looking information. Any forward-looking information is not a guarantee of future performance and actual future performance, and operating results can vary materially depending on a number of factors and assumptions.
Speaker #2: Forward-looking information and the risk factors and assumptions are described in further detail on our Q3 earnings release that we issued this morning, as well as our most recent Form 10-K.
Peter Shaw: Forward-looking information and the risk factors and assumptions are described in further detail in our Q3 earnings release that we issued this morning, as well as our most recent Form 10-K. All these documents are available on CDOT Plus, EDGAR, and our website. I ask you to refer to those. John is going to start this morning with some opening remarks and then hand it over to Dan, who is going to provide the financial update. John will provide an operations update, and once we're done that, we'll allow time for Q&A. With that, I will turn it over to John for his opening remarks.
Speaker #2: All these documents are available on CDAR Plus, EDGAR, and our website. So I'd ask you to refer to those. John is going to start this morning with some opening remarks and then hand it over to Dan, who is going to provide the financial update.
Speaker #2: And then John will provide an operations update, and once we're done with that, we'll allow time for Q&A. So with that, I will turn it over to John for his opening remarks.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our Q3 earnings call. I hope everyone is doing well. As always, we appreciate you taking the time to join us this morning.
Brad Corson: Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our Q3 earnings call. I hope everyone is doing well, and as always, we appreciate you taking the time to join us this morning. I'm really pleased to report another strong quarter. We generated cash flow from operations of nearly $1.8 billion and ended the quarter with approximately $1.9 billion of cash on hand. To our shareholders, we delivered over $1.8 billion through dividends and buybacks. Our strong financial performance and ability to return significant cash to shareholders was underpinned by higher volumes, including record crude production and high refinery utilization. With planned turnaround activity now complete, we're positioned for a strong finish to the year across all of our assets. While crude has softened of late, our integrated business model is very resilient, and we generate substantial free cash flow over a range of oil price environments.
Speaker #3: I'm really pleased to report another strong quarter. We generated cash flow from operations of nearly $1.8 billion. And ended the quarter with approximately $1.9 billion of cash on hand.
Speaker #3: To our shareholders, we delivered over $1.8 billion through dividends and buybacks. Our strong financial performance and ability to return significant cash to shareholders was underpinned by higher volumes, including record crude production and high refinery utilization.
Speaker #3: We planned turnaround activity now complete; we're positioned for a strong finish to the year across all of our assets. While crude has softened of late, our integrated business model is very resilient, and we generate substantial free cash flow over a range of oil price environments.
Speaker #3: As such, we will continue executing on our strategy and the plans we provided at our investor day earlier this year. During the quarter, we also announced a restructuring effort that is aligned with our well-established strategy and will further strengthen our leading position and our foundation for future growth.
Brad Corson: As such, we will continue executing on our strategy and the plans we provided at our Investor Day earlier this year. During the quarter, we also announced a restructuring effort that is aligned with our well-established strategy and will further strengthen our leading position and our foundation for future growth. I'll come back to this in more detail shortly. Let me share some highlights from the quarter. At Kearl, the bar has been raised again, with the team delivering 316,000 barrels per day gross, the highest quarterly production in the asset's history. A great step on our path towards reaching annual production of 300,000 barrels per day. At Cold Lake, Grand Rapids continued to perform well. And the new Lemming SAGD development finished steaming, and we expect first production shortly.
Speaker #3: I'll come back to this in more detail shortly. And let me share some highlights from the quarter. At Curl, the Borough has been raised again.
Speaker #3: With the team delivering $316,000 barrels per day gross, the highest quarterly production in the assets' history. A great step on our path towards reaching annual production of $300,000 barrels per day.
Speaker #3: At Coal Lake, Grand Rapids continued to perform well, and the new Lemmings SAG-D development finished steaming. We expect first production shortly. These projects support transformation at Coal Lake, where we continue to expect more than 40% of production by 2030 to come from advantaged technologies.
Brad Corson: These projects support transformation at Cold Lake, where we continue to expect more than 40% of production by 2030 to come from advantaged technologies. Downstream utilization of 98% was significantly higher quarter over quarter, even with planned turnaround activity at Sarnia beginning in September. That turnaround is now complete and was executed below cost and ahead of schedule. Now I'd like to share more on our restructuring plans. On September 29, we announced restructuring plans to further advance our well-established strategy of increasing cash flow and delivering unmatched, industry-leading shareholder returns. We plan to further improve our industry-leading performance by centralizing additional corporate and technical activities in global business and technology centers, realizing substantial efficiency and effectiveness benefits from scale, integration, and technology. This restructuring is consistent with our longstanding strategy to maximize the value of our existing assets using technology and leveraging our relationship with ExxonMobil.
Speaker #3: Downstream utilization of 98% was significantly higher quarter over quarter, even with planned turnaround activity at Sarnia beginning in September. That turnaround is now complete, and was executed below cost and ahead of schedule.
Brad Corson: With data availability and processing capabilities growing at an accelerating pace, the changes are designed to fully leverage global available expertise to maximize the benefits of current technology and accelerate the cost-effective deployment of new technologies to drive value and enhance financial resilience. Our world is evolving quickly. Technology is advancing in leaps and bounds. We see it all around us. There has been huge growth in global capability centers, and we have to move with it. As a company, our legacy is defined by change and adaptation to ever-evolving business environments, technology, and customer needs. That ability to evolve is one of our greatest strengths. We have done it time and time again, and it is key to our success and leading position. These restructuring actions will further enhance our foundation for future growth and position us to continue delivering unmatched, industry-leading returns and long-term value for our shareholders.
Brad Corson: At the same time, we remain fully committed to meet or beat the medium-term growth and expense reduction plans communicated at our Investor Day in April. Additionally, as a result of the restructuring, we have recorded a one-time restructuring charge and expect to achieve a reduction in annual expenses of $150 million by 2028. Larger benefits are expected over the long term, as more fully leveraging the global scale and expertise of ExxonMobil will enable us to further enhance cash flow growth by driving productivity improvements across our operations, including higher production, reduced downtime, lower unit operating costs, as well as project planning and execution excellence. Our relationship with ExxonMobil is an advantage that others do not have and cannot replicate. Now, we will manage this transition through a rigorous process.
Our relationship with Exxon Mobile is an advantage that others don't have and can't replicate.
Brad Corson: We will be restructuring our corporate workforce, what we call above field, which will result in a reduction in the number of employee roles by the end of 2027. In the second half of 2028, we will further consolidate activities at our operating sites, primarily the Strathcona Refinery in Edmonton, to enhance collaboration, operational focus, and execution excellence. Through this transition, our focus remains on supporting our employees, operating with integrity, putting safety first, and executing our business strategy. Additionally, in view of the restructuring and our reduced office space requirements, we have signed an agreement to sell our Calgary campus, resulting in a non-cash impairment charge. On that note, I'll turn it over to Dan to discuss our financial results in more detail.
Now, we will manage this transition through a rigorous process.
We will be restructuring our corporate Workforce. What we call above field?
Which will result in a reduction in the number of employee roles by the end of 2027.
Then in the second half of 2028, we will further consolidate activities at our operating sites. Primarily the Strathcona refinery in Edmonton.
To enhance. Collaboration, operational, focus, and execution excellence.
Through this transition, our Focus remains on supporting our employees.
Operating with Integrity, putting Safety First, and executing our business strategy.
Additionally, in view of the restructuring and our reduced office space requirements. We have signed an agreement to sell our Calgary campus.
Resulting in a non-cash impairment charge.
Dan Lyons: Thanks, John. We had two identified items in the Q3 in our corporate segment. First, the restructuring plans that John mentioned resulted in a charge of $330 million before tax in the quarter, with an unfavorable earnings impact of $249 million after tax. This charge largely consists of employee severance costs, which will be paid out over the next two years as we migrate activities to business and technology centers and achieve efficiencies. Second, following an extensive marketing effort and after careful consideration of the current status and the anticipated outlook for large properties in the Calgary real estate market, we signed a sales and purchase agreement to sell our Calgary campus, which is expected to close in the coming months. Consistent with this, we recorded a non-cash impairment charge of $406 million before tax, with an unfavorable earnings impact of $306 million after tax in the quarter.
And on that note, I'll turn it over to Dan to discuss our financial reasons in more detail. Thanks John, we had 2 identify items.
In the third quarter and our corporate segment. First, the restructuring plans that John mentioned resulted in a charge of 330 million dollars before tax in the quarter, with an unfavorable earnings impact of 249 million after tax. This charge largely consists of employee Severance costs, which will be paid out over the next 2 years as we migrate activities to Business and Technology Centers and Achieve efficiencies
Second.
Bowing and extensive marketing effort. And after careful consideration of the current status and the anticipated outlook for large properties in the Calgary real estate market, we signed a sales and purchase agreement to sell our Calgary campus which is expected to close in the coming months. Consistent with this, we recorded an
Dan Lyons: The sales and purchase agreement includes a lease-back arrangement to support Imperial Oil's needs over the next several years. Turning to our underlying Q3 results, we recorded net income of $539 million. However, excluding identified items, the ones I just described, net income for the quarter is $1.94 billion, down $143 million from the Q3 of 2024, driven by lower upstream realizations partially offset by higher refining margins. When comparing sequentially, Q3 net income is down $410 million from the Q2 of 2025, but again, excluding identified items, net income is up $145 million, primarily due to strong operational performance. Now, shifting our attention to each business line and looking sequentially, upstream earnings of $728 million are up $64 million from the Q2, primarily due to higher volumes and realizations. Downstream earnings of $444 million are up $122 million from the Q2, mainly reflecting higher margins and volumes.
Comcast impairment charge of 406 million before tax with an unfavorable earnings impact of 306 million after tax in the quarter.
The sales and purchase agreement. Includes a lease back arrangement to support imperial's needs over the next several years.
Turning to our underlying third quarter results, we recorded net income of $539 million. However, excluding identified items, the ones I just described, net income from the quarter is $1 billion, 94 million, down $143 million from the third quarter of 2024, driven by lower upstream realizations, partially offset by higher refining margins.
When comparing sequentially third quarter. Net income is down. 410 million from the second quarter of 2025. But again, excluding identified items. Net income is up, 145 million primarily due to strong, operational performance.
Now, shifting our attention to each business line and looking sequentially Upstream earnings of 728 million are up 64 million from the second quarter, primarily due to higher volumes and realizations.
Dan Lyons: Our chemical business generated earnings of $21 million, consistent with the Q2. Moving on to cash flow, in the Q3, we generated $1.798 billion in cash flows from operating activities, excluding working capital effects. Cash flows from operating activities for the Q3 were $1.600 billion, which includes a $149 million unfavorable impact from the previously mentioned restructuring charge. Taking this into account, normalized cash flow was about $1.750 billion in the quarter. As John mentioned, we ended the quarter in a strong position with about $1.9 billion of cash on hand. Now, shifting to CapEx, capital expenditures in Q3 totaled $505 million, $19 million higher than Q3 of 2024. In the upstream, Q3 spending of $353 million focused on sustaining capital at Kearl, Cold Lake, and Syncrude. In the downstream, Q3 CapEx was primarily spent on sustaining capital projects across our refining network.
Downstream earnings of 444 million are up 122 million from the second quarter, mainly reflecting, higher margins and volumes our chemical business generated earnings of 21 million consistent with the second quarter.
Moving on to cash flow.
In the third quarter, we generated 1,798 million dollars in cash flows from operating activities. Excluding working capital effects. Cash flows from operating activities for the third quarter were 1,600 million dollars, which includes
a 149 million unfavorable impact from the previously mentioned restructuring. Charge. Taking this into account normalized. Cash flow was about 1,750 million dollars in the quarter.
Dollars of cash on hand.
Dan Lyons: Our full-year outlook remains consistent with our previously issued guidance. Shifting to shareholder distributions, in Q3, we continue to demonstrate our longstanding commitment to return surplus cash to our shareholders, paying $366 million in dividends and returning almost $1.5 billion through our accelerated share repurchase program under our normal course issuer bid. We anticipate completing our NCIB program before year-end. Finally, this morning, we announced the Q4 dividend of $0.72 per share, in line with our Q3 dividend. Imperial Oil remains committed to a reliable and growing dividend, as demonstrated by 31 consecutive years of annual dividend growth. Now, I'll turn it back to John to discuss our operational performance.
Now, shifting to capex Capital expenditures in the third quarter total 505 million 19 million higher than the third quarter of 2024 in the Upstream. Third quarter spending of 353 million focus on sustaining Capital, that curl, Cold Lake and S crude. And the downstream third quarter capex is primarily spent on sustaining capital projects across our refining. Network.
Our full year outlook remains consistent with our previously issued guidance.
Shifting to shareholder distributions and the third quarter, we continue to demonstrate our long-standing commitment to return surplus cash to our shareholders, paying $366 million.
In dividends and returning almost 1.5 billion dollars through our accelerated share repurchase program under our. Normal course, issuer bid
We anticipate completing our ncib program before year end.
Brad Corson: Thanks, Dan. I want to take the next few minutes to share the key highlights from our operating results. Upstream production for the quarter averaged 462,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day, up 35,000 barrels per day versus Q2, and up 15,000 barrels per day versus Q3 of 2024. This quarter marks a new crude production record for the company. Now, I'll cover highlights for each of the assets, starting with Kearl. Kearl set a quarterly production record averaging 316,000 barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day versus Q2, and up 21,000 barrels per day versus Q3 of 2024. This marks the highest quarterly production ever for Kearl, surpassing our previous best set in Q4 of 2023.
Finally, this morning we announced the fourth-quarter dividend of $0.72 per share, in line with our third quarter. Dividends Imperial remains committed to a reliable and growing dividend, as demonstrated by 31 consecutive years of annual dividend growth. Now, I'll turn it back to John to discuss our operational performance.
Thanks Dan. I want to take the next few minutes to share the key highlights from our operating results.
Upstream production for the quarter averaged 462,000 oil equivalent barrels per day.
up, 35,000 barrels per day versus the second quarter and up 15,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter of 2024
This quarter marks a new crude production record for the company.
Now, we'll cover highlights for each of the assets, starting with colonel.
Curl set a quarterly production record averaging 316,000 barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day versus the second quarter.
And up 21000, barrels per day versus the third quarter of 2024.
Brad Corson: The strong volumes were driven by a combination of high ore quality and our optimization efforts associated with ore selectivity, and we're also realizing reliability gains from upsizing and design improvements of the hydrotransport lines. Kearl continued to progress on unit cash costs, and that is quickly becoming one of my favorite parts of our story. Unit cash costs at Kearl were $15.13 US per barrel this quarter, a decrease of nearly $4 US per barrel compared to Q2, helped by the absence of our planned turnaround, but also improved reliability, recovery, and ore selectivity. When compared to Q3 of last year, we achieved a decrease of over $2 US per barrel. The Q3 strong performance contributed to our year-to-date unit cash cost of $17.89 US per barrel.
This marks the highest quarterly production ever for Colonel, surpassing our previous best set in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The strong volumes were driven by a combination of high or quality and are optimization efforts associated with or selectivity. And we're also realizing reliability, gains from upsizing and design improvements of the hydro transport lines.
Curl continued to progress on unit cache costs, and that is quickly becoming one of my favorite parts of our story.
Unit cache costs at curl, or $15.13 us per barrel. This quarter,
A decrease of nearly $4 us per barrel compared to the second quarter helped by the absence of our plant, turnaround, but also improved reliability recovery. And or selectivity
when compared to the third quarter of last year, we achieved a decrease of over 2 dollars US per barrel.
Brad Corson: With year-to-date unit cash costs down over $2 US per barrel, we are realizing the benefit of our strategy that is focused on growing volumes with lower unit cash costs. Moving next to Cold Lake. Cold Lake's production averaged 150,000 barrels per day, up 5,000 barrels per day versus Q2 of 2025, and up 3,000 barrels per day versus Q3 of 2024. I would like to take a moment to draw your attention to unit cash costs at Cold Lake. The current cost in Q3 was $13.38 US per barrel, and that is supporting year-to-date costs of $14 US, which is down $1 US per barrel versus the same period last year. While we have certainly benefited from low gas prices, we continue to make progress on structural cost reduction initiatives and our strategy to transform Cold Lake to a high proportion of technology-advantaged production.
The third quarter, strong performance contributed to our year-to-date unit cash. Cost of $17.89 US per barrel.
With year-to-date unit cash costs down over $2 per barrel, we are realizing the benefit of our strategy that is focused on growing volumes with lower unit cash costs.
Moving next to Cole Lake.
Cole Lake's production averaged 150,000 barrels per day, up 5,000 barrels per day versus the second quarter of 2025 and up 3,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter of 2024.
I would like to take a moment to draw your attention to unit cache costs at Cold Lake.
The current cost in the third quarter was 13.38 us per barrel.
And that is supporting year-to-date costs of $14 us, which is down. $1 us per barrel versus the same period last year.
Brad Corson: Consistent with that, our Lemming SAGD project remains on track. Having recently completed steam circulation, we expect to see first oil in the coming weeks, with production ramping up over the next year. Looking to the future, we have an abundance of high-quality in-situ opportunities in our portfolio. At Aspen, we continue to progress the Ebert pilot, with startup remaining on track for early 2027. In addition, our Clark Creek and Corner assets provide us with further long-term growth opportunities. These three assets have the potential to support up to 150,000 barrels per day each of advantaged production during their estimated 25 to 50-year operating life. To round out the upstream, I'll cover Syncrude. Imperial Oil's share of Syncrude production for the quarter averaged 78,000 barrels per day, which was up 1,000 barrels per day versus Q2, and down 3,000 barrels per day versus Q3 2024.
While we have certainly benefited from low gas prices. We continue to make progress on structural cost reduction initiatives and our strategy to transform collate to a high proportion of Technology advantaged production.
Consistent with that are Lemmings. Sagd project remains on track.
And looking to the future, we have an abundance of high-quality in situ opportunities in our portfolio. At Aspen, we continue to progress, with the Ebert pilot startup remaining on track for early 2027.
In addition our Clark Creek and Corner assets. Provide us with further long-term growth opportunities, these 3 assets have the potential to support up to 150,000 barrels per day. Each of Advantage production during their estimated 25 to 50 year operating life.
And to round out the Upstream Auto cover, sync group Imperial's share of Syncrew production for the quarter averaged 78,000 barrels per day.
Brad Corson: In early September, Syncrude began its planned 50-day COCR turnaround and was able to complete it ahead of schedule and under budget, with work wrapping up at the beginning of last week. Syncrude also continued to utilize the Interconnect pipeline to import bitumen and gas oil to ensure high upgrader utilization, and this enabled an additional 6,000 barrels per day, our share of Syncrude Suite premium production. Now, moving to the downstream. We delivered strong operational results while progressing our planned turnaround at Sarnia. Refinery throughput averaged 425,000 barrels per day, equating to a refinery utilization of 98%. This exceeded last year's Q3 throughput by 36,000 barrels per day, and it exceeded Q2 2025 throughput by 49,000 barrels per day, primarily driven by lower turnaround impacts and strong reliability at all sites.
which was up a thousand barrels per day versus the second quarter and down 3,000 barrels per day versus the third quarter of 2024
in early September sink crew began its planned 50-day core turnaround and was able to complete it ahead of schedule and under budget with work wrapping up at the beginning of last week.
In crude also continued to utilize the interconnect pipeline to import bitumen and gas oil to ensure High upgrader utilization and this enabled an additional 6,000 barrels per day. Our share of sink fruit, sweet premium production,
Now, moving to the downstream.
We delivered strong operational results while progressing on our planned turnaround at Sarnia.
Refinery throughput averaged 425,000 barrels per day.
Equating to a refinery utilization of 98%.
Brad Corson: As we mentioned in the Q2 earnings call, we started up the Strathcona Renewable Diesel facility and are already realizing benefits of backing out more expensive imported products and replacing them with our own low cost of supply. We continue to optimize production based on hydrogen availability. Earlier this week, we successfully completed our turnaround at Sarnia, ahead of schedule and below budget. With our turnaround activity complete for the year, we are expecting a strong Q3. Petroleum product sales in the quarter were 464,000 barrels per day, which is down 16,000 barrels per day versus Q2 2025, driven by lower export volumes, partially offset by higher jet and asphalt sales. Overall, we continue to see robust demand in Canada, with gas and diesel comparable to the Q3 2024 levels and jet showing stronger demand. Turning now to chemicals, earnings in Q3 were $21 million, consistent with Q2.
This exceeded last year's third quarter throughput by 36,000 barrels per day and is also ahead of the second quarter 2025 throughput by 49,000 barrels per day, primarily driven by lower turnaround impacts and strong reliability at all sites.
As we mentioned in the second quarter earnings call, we started up the Strath coner renewable diesel facility and are already realizing benefits of backing out, more expensive imported products and replacing them with our own low-cost of supply.
We continue to optimize production based on hydrogen availability.
Earlier this week, we successfully completed our turnaround at Zarnia ahead of schedule and below budget.
With our turnaround activity. Complete for the year, we are expecting a strong 4 year.
Patrol petroleum product sales in the quarter were 464,000 barrels per day, which is down 16,000 barrels per day versus the second quarter of 2025, driven by lower export volumes, partially offset by higher jet and asphalt sales.
Overall, we continue to see robust demand in Canada with gas and Diesel comparable to the third quarter of 2024 levels and Jet showing stronger. Demand.
Brad Corson: Compared to Q3 2024, earnings were down $7 million, driven by weaker polyethylene margins. While challenging market conditions persist, our integration with the Sarnia Refinery continues to add value and provides resilience in low-price environments. To wrap up, I'm very pleased with the strong operational and financial performance in the quarter, highlighted by the record quarterly liquids production in our upstream, best-ever quarterly production at Kearl, and strong refinery utilization of 98% in our downstream. With our planned turnaround activity complete, we're focused on a strong finish and remain confident in our guidance. We continue to return surplus cash to our shareholders in a timely manner and still expect to complete the accelerated normal course issuer bid by the end of the year. As mentioned earlier, our restructuring plan advances our longstanding strategy of maximizing the value of our existing assets.
Turning now to chemicals earnings in the third quarter, which were $21 million, consistent with the second quarter. Compared to the third quarter of 2024, earnings were down $7 million, driven by weaker polyethylene margins.
While challenging market conditions, persist our integration with the science, Nia Refinery continues to add value and provides resilience to low price devices.
So, to wrap up.
I'm very pleased with the strong operational and financial performance in the quarter.
Highlighted by the record quarterly liquids production in our Upstream.
Best ever. Quarterly production at Curl?
And a strong refinery utilization of 90-98% in our downstream.
With our planned turnaround activity complete, we're focused on a strong finish and remain confident in our guidance.
We continue to return surplus cash to our shareholders in a timely manner and still expect to complete the accelerated normal course issuer bid by the end of the year.
Brad Corson: The plan positions Imperial Oil to continue delivering industry-leading shareholder returns over a range of market conditions. We are transforming from a position of strength, leveraging the rapidly advancing technology environment, the growth in global capability centers, and our relationship with ExxonMobil. I've described what is changing as part of our restructuring. It is equally important to highlight what is not. Our governance and leadership structure is not changing. What we are doing is fully aligned with our strategy. Our strategy is not changing, and our growth plans are not changing. We remain a proud Canadian company, an industry-leading, technology-focused energy company contributing significantly to the country and our shareholders. Throughout this transition, we remain committed to supporting our employees, the communities where we operate, and responsibly producing the energy and products Canadians rely on.
as mentioned earlier, our restructuring plan advances, our long-standing strategy of maximizing, the value of our existing assets,
The plant positions Imperial to continue delivering industry-leading shareholder returns over a range of market conditions.
We are transforming from a position of strength.
Leveraging, the rapidly advancing technology environment.
The growth in global capability centers and our relationship with Exxon Mobil.
As part of our restructuring.
It is equally important to highlight, what is not?
Our governance and leadership structure is not changing.
What we are doing is fully aligned with our strategy; our strategy is not changing.
And our growth plans are not changing.
We remain a proud Canadian company.
And industry-leading.
Technology-focused energy company contributing significantly to the country and our shareholders.
And throughout this transition, we remain committed to supporting our employees.
The communities where we operate.
And responsibly producing the energy and products Canadians rely on.
Brad Corson: In closing, let me say the combination of our financial position, strong operating results, and our strategic initiatives to further strengthen our efficiency and effectiveness give me confidence in the future of Imperial Oil and our ability to further enhance our industry-leading position. I am very pleased with the strong results our team has delivered, and I want to thank them. Thank you once again for your continued interest and support. Looking ahead, we are planning to issue our annual guidance for 2026 in mid-December. With that, I will now move to our Q&A session and pass the floor back to Peter.
In closing, let me say that the combination of our financial position...
Strong operating results.
And our strategic initiatives to further strengthen our efficiency and effectiveness.
Give me confidence in the future of Imperial.
And our ability to further enhance our industry-leading position.
I'm very pleased with the strong results. Our team has delivered and I want to thank them.
And as always, I'd like to thank you once again for your continued interest and support.
Looking ahead, we are planning to issue our annual guidance for 2026 in mid-December.
and with that,
Peter Shaw: Thank you, John. As always, we'd appreciate it if you could limit yourself to one question plus a follow-up, so that we can get to all the questions. With that, Operator, could you please open up the line for questions?
We will. Now I will now move to our Q&A session and pass the floor back to me.
Operator: Thank you. If you would like to signal with questions, please press Star 1 on your touch-tone telephone. If you're joining us today using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, that is Star 1 if you would like to signal with questions. The first question will come from Manav Gupta with UBS.
Thank you, John. As always, we do appreciate it. If you could limit yourself to 1 question plus a follow-up so that we can get to all the questions. So, with that, operator, could you please open up the line for questions?
Thank you. If you would like to signal with questions, please press *1 on your touchtone telephone. If you're joining us today using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, that is *1. If you would like to signal with questions,
And the first question will come from Manav Gupta with UBS.
[Analyst 1]: Good morning, guys. Kearl keeps setting new milestones. I mean, production volume was significantly better than our expectations, and I don't think I've seen a $15 op cost out there. Help us understand what's driving these improvements and how is this asset positioning Imperial Oil extremely well for times to come ahead.
Uh, good morning guys. Go keeps setting new Milestones. I mean, production volume was significantly better than our expectations and I don't think I've seen a 15 dollar up cost out there. So help us understand what's driving these improvements and how is this asset positioning Imperial extremely well for times to come ahead.
Brad Corson: Thank you, Manav. I may make a few comments, and Sheryl can chime in as well. Thank you for that comment. As I said, you know, Kearl, the unit cost performance there and reliability, the performance of the asset has certainly become one of my favorite parts of the story. It is very key to our success and our future for sure. As we look at where we are right now, I think we're really well positioned to meet the midpoint of our annual guidance. The team continues to set new records. We had a best-ever second quarter. Now we've had the best-ever quarter in Q3. It is important to note there's variability quarter to quarter, and we need to keep that in mind as we go forward as well. This quarter, we had very strong volumes with our high ore quality, our optimization efforts, as well as reliability gains.
Brad Corson: Honestly, I couldn't be prouder of this team and have been more optimistic about this asset and the importance of it to our business. We're on track to deliver on our commitments and around a future of 300,000 barrels a day for this asset and a unit cost target of $18 a barrel in 2027. Sheryl can comment a bit more, but thank you for the comments. This is a very important part of our business for sure, and we're very pleased with the performance of this asset.
Thank you manov, and I mean, make a few comments and I'll share all can chime in as well. Thank you for that comment. And as I said, you know, curls the unit cost performance there. A reliability, the performance of the asset has certain become 1 of my favorite parts of the story. Um, it is very key to our, our success and, and our future for sure. And you know, as we look at where we are right now, I think we're really well positioned to meet, uh, the midpoint of our annual Guidance, the team continues to set new records. We had a best second quarter, uh, best ever second quarter. Now, we've had the best ever quarter in the third quarter, uh, but, but it is important to note. There's variability quarter to quarter and, you know, we need to keep that in mind as we go forward as well. But this quarter, we had very strong volumes with our high or quality, our optimization efforts and as well as reliability gains, you know, honestly, I couldn't be more. I couldn't be prouder of this team and have, uh, be more optimistic about this asset and the importance of it to our business.
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Thanks, John. A little bit more in terms of what's made the difference, and I'm going to go back to some of the messages that I shared when we had Investor Day. Kearl continues to have a relentless focus on optimizing scope and collaborating lessons learned, and this is including implementing creative ideas. We continue to integrate lessons learned and technology, drive better decisions via data and analytics, as well as leverage our global learnings and benchmarking. In short, we're maintaining this continuous improvement mindset. The work and the success that we've had to date gives me confidence to continue to outperform while maintaining our facility integrity as well as our strong risk management.
We are on track to, um, you know, deliver on our commitments and around, you know, a future of 300,000 barrels a day for this asset and a unit cost targeted of $18 a barrel in 2027. Um, Cheryl can comment a bit more, but, uh, thank you for the comments. This is a very important part of our business, for sure. And we're very pleased with the performance of this asset.
Thanks, John. So, uh, a little bit more in terms of what's made the difference. And I'm going to go back to some of the messages that I shared when we had Investor Day. Curl continues to have a relentless focus on optimizing scope and collaborating on lessons learned, and this includes implementing creative ideas. We continue to integrate lessons learned and technology to drive better decisions via data and analytics, as well as leverage our global learnings and benchmarking. In short, we're maintaining this continuous improvement mindset. The work and the success that we've had to date give me confidence to continue to outperform while maintaining our facility integrity, as well as our strong risk management.
[Analyst 1]: Thank you. My quick follow-up is on the refining macro. It looks like the diesel markets are very tight, and whatever channel checks we are doing is indicating that the Russian refineries have taken a significant hit, and it will take a long time for those markets to normalize. I wanted to understand in the next three to six months, how do you see the refining market out there? Do you think the strength in diesel cracks can continue? If that's the case, your Q4 numbers in the refining side have definite upside from where we are. If you could comment on that.
Refineries have taken a significant hit and it'll take a long time for those markets to normalize. And so I wanted to understand in the next 3 to 6 months. How do you see the refining Market out there? Do you think the strength in diesel cracks can continue? Because if that's the case, your fourth quarter numbers in the refining site have definite upside from where we are. So if you could comment on that,
Brad Corson: Sure, I'll jump in and take that. Yeah, we have certainly seen the same things right out the door right now with the global supply-demand balances and the sanctions out there propping up diesel margins. As long as those sanctions continue and the disruptions occur in the global market, we think that that's a possible outcome for us. The way we manage our business is making the products that we see margins out the door on. With all of our maintenance work behind us this year, we see high utilization numbers for the balance of Q4. Combined with the margins that we're seeing, especially in the diesel channel, we're looking forward to a positive Q4.
Sure, I'll, I'll jump in and take that. Um, yeah, we, we have certainly seen the same things right out the door right now with the, the global Supply demand balances. And then the sanctions out there, uh, propping up, um, diesel margins. And so, you know, we as long as those sanctions continue and the and the disruptions occur and the global market, we think that that's, that's a possible, um, outcome for us. Uh, the way we manage our business is is making the products that uh, we see margins out the door on and with all of our maintenance work. Um, behind us this year, we see um, High utilization numbers for the balance of the fourth quarter and uh, combined with the mark, the margins that we're seeing. In the diesel Channel, we're we're seeing, uh, we're looking forward to a positive fourth quarter.
Operator: Thank you. We'll take a question from Greg Pardy with RBC Capital Markets.
Thank you.
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the rundown, John and Dan. I wanted to come back to the restructuring just to better understand how the transition is going to work. You've done the sale lease-back on the building, which means that the staff that, you know, will be retained presumably is going to be at Quarry Park. It sounds like you'll be at Quarry Park. I'm just trying to understand if the transition is going to occur over essentially 2026 and 2027. Have the folks that no longer have a role, are they still in the building, or has that transition kind of moved? I'm just trying to better understand how the dynamics are going to shake out.
And we'll take a question from Greg Party with RBC Capital Markets.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Thanks for the, uh, thanks for the rundown. Uh, John and Dan, I wanted to come back to the restructuring, just to, to better understand how the transition is is going to work. So you've done the sale lease back on the building which means that the staff that, you know will be retained. Presumably is going to be a Corey Park. Sounds like you'll be a Corey Park and then I'm just trying to understand that if the transition is going to curl over essentially 26 and 27.
Have the folks who no longer have a role, are they still in the building or has that transition kind of moved? I'm just trying to better understand how the dynamics are going to shake out.
Brad Corson: Thanks, Greg. Let me cover that. If we step back from this, what we're doing, I would say, and I'll get to the specifics of your question, this is, we've been assessing this opportunity over a couple of years, and it really builds on the transformation journey that we've been on for more than a decade, frankly, of gradually outsourcing work to global capability centers and leveraging technology to improve efficiency. In the past, you've seen that over the last decade in terms of our organization size. We're doing just as much or more in terms of what we're operating, what we're executing, but with less people, doing it in a more efficient manner. In the past, we did this opportunity-by-opportunity based on an opportunity-by-opportunity basis or organization-by-organization.
Well thanks Greg. Let me let me uh let me cover that you know this if we step back from this, what we're doing, I would say and I I'll get to the specifics of your question, you know? This is we have been assessing this opportunity over a couple of years and it really Builds on the transformation Journey that we've been on for more than a decade. Frankly of, you know, gradually Outsourcing work. Global capability centers and leveraging Technology to improve efficiency in the past. We, you know, you've seen that over the last decade in terms of our organization size, we are doing just as much or more in terms of what we're operating, what we're executing. But with, with less people, doing it in a more efficient manner. So, in the past, we did this opportunity by opportunity based on an opportunity by opportunity basis.
Brad Corson: Now we've looked at this from a company-wide perspective, and as we've kind of crawled and walked, we see the opportunity to run as we move forward. I share that just to highlight there's been a tremendous amount of planning put into this, and we have a detailed plan for how we will execute this over the next two years. In terms of, you're right, this transition will occur over a two-year period in terms of the workforce transformation piece of it. The consolidation of operating sites will happen after that in 2028, so an overall three-year period. We have detailed plans in place for the outsourcing of this work to global capability centers. Another important part to consider is part of this efficiency gain is outsourcing work, but there's also about 40% of the reduction is pure efficiency gain.
Brad Corson: There will be less people required to do the work as we capture the scale that we can get in these global capability centers. We have a two-year transition for how we'll capture those efficiencies and outsource the work to these global capability centers. Our organization, we are right, the office, while we are, we have entered into a sale and purchase agreement on the office that includes a lease-back for us where we will stay in Quarry Park through 2026 and 2027 and the first part of 2028 until we move most of the staff to consolidate them at operating sites at that time. Nobody will have to move. You will see a transitioning, a reduction in our workforce over that two-year period, 2026 and 2027. The end of 2027, we will get to the outcome, the desired outcome that we have communicated.
Organization by organization. Um, now we've looked at this from a companywide perspective, and as we've kind of crawled and walked, we see the opportunity to run as we move forward. And I share that just just to highlight. There's been a tremendous amount of planning, uh, put into this. And we have a detailed plan for how that we will execute this over the next 2 years. So, in terms of you're right, this transition will occur over a 2-year period in terms of the workforce transformation piece of it. And then the the, uh, consolidation is operating sites will happen after that, in 2028. So an overall, a 3 year period, we have detailed plans in place for the Outsourcing of this of work to Global capability centers. Uh but another important part to consider is part of this. Um, efficiency gain is outsourcing work, but there's also about 40% of the reduction is pure efficiency gains. There will be
You know, we will be less people required to do the work as we capture the scale that we can get in these Global capability centers.
So we have a 2 year transition, for how we'll capture those efficiencies and Outsource the work to these Global capability centers, our organization, we are right, the office while we are, we have entered into a sale and purchase agreement on the office. That involve that includes, um, a lease back for us where we will.
Brad Corson: In 2028, we will move people after we've achieved that reduction. John, I hope that answers your question.
Stay in Corey Park through 2026 and 2027 and the first part of 2028 until we move, you know, most of the staff to our consolidate, the Met operating sites at that time. So nobody will have to move and we will you will see a transitioning a reduction in our Workforce over that 2 year period. 26 and 27 the end of 27 we will get to you know the uh the outcome, the desired outcome that we have communicated and then in 28 we will move people after we've achieved that reduction
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Oh my goodness. Yeah. No, I mean, John, you're always well prepared. No, that's incredibly thorough. Maybe just to come back to what Cheryl was talking about with respect to Kearl. In Canadian dollars, a little over $20 is looking very, very good. I'm wondering if you could just maybe break it down between kind of volume versus input costs versus just perhaps the elimination of absolute costs or structural costs that have now been taken out of Kearl as a consequence of fewer people, digitalization, and so forth. Obviously, we had very weak natural gas prices in Q3, but not sure that that's really a factor at all in terms of the performance you put up.
That’s incredibly thorough. I may be back. Um,
To what Cheryl was talking about with respect to curl? So on in, you know, sea dollars a little over 20 bucks is is looking very, very good. I'm I'm wondering if you could just maybe break it down between
kind of volume versus input costs versus just perhaps the elimination of absolute costs or structural costs that have now been taken out of curl as a consequence of, you know, fewer people digitalization and so forth. Because obviously we had very weak natural gas prices uh in the third quarter. But not sure that that's really a factor at all in terms of performance, you put up
Brad Corson: I'll start, and then I will hand over to Sheryl, Greg. Thanks for the question. It is a really good point you make. It is a combination of both. We are working both the denominator and the numerator in that. We have been reducing our absolute costs, what we call capturing structural efficiencies. Not just reducing in the short term, not pushing things out, but actually structurally reducing our costs, costs that we can reduce and will remain reduced. We do that with a very laser-like focus on maintaining integrity, safety, and all of those things that are most important to us. You've heard me talk about in the past being the most responsible operator. That involves safety performance, your integrity, your reliability, but also your cost structure. We do those things in concert, ensuring that we maintain integrity, reliability, and safety, but also reducing our structural costs.
I mean, I will start and then I will hand over to Cheryl Greg.
Thanks for the question. I mean it is and it is a really good point. You make it is a combination of both. We are working both the denominator and the numerator in that so we have been reducing our absolute costs. Our, you know what, we call a capturing structural efficiency. So not just reducing in the short term, not pushing things out. But actually structurally reducing our cost, it costs that we can reduce and we'll remain reduced and we do that with a very laser-like focus on maintaining Integrity safety and all of those things that are most important to us. You know, you've heard me talk about in the past, being the most responsible operator, and that involves
Brad Corson: There have been millions and millions of dollars in structural savings identified, but obviously you have seen the barrels go up as well. It is the combination of both. The team continues to work on both parts of that equation, which is really important, given the magnitude of the improvements we've seen and what we want to continue to do as we go forward. I'll pass over to Sheryl to elaborate a little more.
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Sure. Thanks, John. Greg, what I would say is this is a very good example of the AND equation, as John mentioned. In this space where we're looking at unit cash costs, we're leveraging scale, looking at structural cost savings as well as incremental production. When I think about incremental production, it leverages the relatively high fixed cost structure at Kearl. This is a powerful lever in terms of lowering our unit cash costs. As John mentioned, we continue to focus on reliability, maintenance optimization, deployment of digital solutions to improve our productivity and lower absolute costs. Several of the things we highlighted at our investment day in terms of automation, robotics, remote activities. It is a yes and in terms of how we get there.
You know, safety performance, your integrity, your reliability but also your cost structure. So we do those things in concert ensuring that we maintain Integrity reliability and safety but also uh, reducing our structural costs. So there has been millions and millions of dollars in structural savings identified, but obviously you you have seen the barrels go up as well. Um, and so it is the combination of both uh and and the team continues to work on both parts that equation which is really important, you know, given the magnitude of the improvements we've seen and what we want to continue to do, as we go forward. I'll, I'll pass over to Cheryl to elaborate a little more sure. Thanks, John. And and and Greg, what I would say is this is a uh, a very good example of the and equation as John mentioned. So, in this space where we're looking at unit, cash costs, we're leveraging scale, looking at structural cost savings as well as incremental production, you know, when I think about incremental production, it leverages the the the relatively High fixed cost structure.
Structure at curl. So this is a powerful lever in terms of lowering our unit cash costs. And as Sean mentioned, we continue to focus on reliability, maintenance optimization deployment of digital solutions to improve our productivity and lower absolute costs. Several of those things we highlighted at our investment day, um, in terms of automation, robotics remote activities. So it's a yes, and
Brad Corson: Understood. Thanks very much.
In terms of of how we get there.
Understood. Thanks very much.
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Thank you, Greg.
Operator: We'll take a question from Dennis Fong with CIBC.
Greg. And
And we'll take a question from Dennis Fong with CIBC.
Peter Shaw: Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. My first one is just related to your in-situ pipeline, Aspen, Clark Creek, and Corner. Thank you for the rundown. Obviously, Ebert is a focal point in terms of the go forward strategy, just kind of solidifying and understanding the development potential and the result from the pilot, the primary driver for kind of moving on to the next steps. Maybe what else would you like to see beyond kind of further prove out of the technology for you to feel comfortable moving forward with Aspen, I guess, first, or any of these three in-situ projects?
Hi, good morning and thanks for taking my question. Um, my my first 1 is just related to your uh Institute pipeline Aspen Clark Creek and Corner. Um, thank you for the kind of the rundown. Um, obviously Ebert is a focal point. In terms of the go forth, strategy is just kind of solidifying and and understanding the development potential and, uh, the results of the pilot, the, the primary driver for, um, kind of, moving on to the next steps. And, and maybe what else would you like to see beyond kind of further prove out of the technology for you to feel for feel comfortable, moving forward with um as and I guess first or any of these 3 Institute projects.
Brad Corson: Thank you. Thank you, Dennis, for the question. I'll start again, and I may ask Cheryl to chime in as well. I think if we look at this future in-situ portfolio, we remain very bullish about it. The resource base is significant and of high quality, and we believe we have the technology and Ebert to unlock that resource base at lower unit cost, lower emissions than even the technology we're using today. We have decided to do the pilot. We feel quite confident in the technology. We've done a lot of lab testing on it. Given the scale at which we want to deploy it, we felt it was valuable to do the pilot. The main things we're going to be looking for in the pilot are the solvent recovery and the production uplift that come from those. That's the main thing. We'll start up the pilot in 2027.
Uh, thank you. Thank you. Dennis for the question. I I'll start again and I'll I may ask Cheryl to chime in as well. I think if we look at these future, this future in situ portfolio, we remain very bullish about it. Um, the resource base is significant and of high quality and we believe we have the technology in Ebert to unlock that resource base at lower unit cost lower emissions uh than even the technology we're using today.
Brad Corson: That's from a technology perspective. We're going in pretty positive about it, but it's important to prove that up, I think, through a real-life pilot in the field. We feel very good about the resource. We will continue to do some delineation work around that, but we've done a lot already, and we feel very comfortable in that space. I think the other part is just the overall investment environment. You've heard us in industry talk about that, the importance, and we've been on record with that at the government, and we're working closely with the government around that, simplifying regulations, shortening project approval timelines, and those types of things. That's important as we consider future investment and growth in production. The other aspect is egress, and we feel very good about that, particularly for Aspen.
It's important to prove that up. I think through a real-life, um, you know, pilot in the field.
The uh we feel very good about the resource. We will continue to do some delineation work around that, but we we've done a lot already and we feel very comfortable in that space.
Brad Corson: As we look out the next decade and we listen to what the pipeline companies are talking about in terms of debottlenecking projects with Trans Mountain, Enbridge. Enbridge has announced projects that they've been talking about. We feel very good that there's egress going to be available for the next decade or so. We're doing some work on the technology. There's an investment climate piece that we continue to work with the government on. We think there's egress. Overall, we're very bullish about the opportunities.
And uh, I think the other part is just the overall investment, you know, environment, you've heard us in Industry, talk about that the importance and and we've been been on record with that at the government and we're working closely with the government around, that simplifying regulations, shortening project, approval timelines, and those type of things. You know, that that's important as, as we consider future investment and growth in production. Um, and then the other aspect is egress and we feel very good about that particularly for Aspen. Um, as we look out the next decade and we listen to what the pipeline companies are talking about, in terms of default linking projects with Trans Mountain Umbridge. Umbridge, is announced, you know, projects that they've been talking about. We feel very good that there's egress, uh, going to be available for the next decade or so. So we're doing some work on the technology, there's an investment climate uh, you know, piece that we continue to involve work with the government on we think there's egress. So overall, we're very
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: I'll just add a couple other comments, Dennis. We've drilled the three wells, and as John mentioned, we're on target for an early 2027 startup. We're going to run the pilot to validate production uplift here. John mentioned solvent recovery as well as overall operability. The other thing I'd highlight is the pilot is intended to de-risk this technology, and it's a very similar approach to what we took for SAGD. I think we're well on track there. I'd echo the comments that John made, which is we're very, we're looking forward to Ebert technology. This is what we're looking for in terms of being a game changer for our in-situ developments going forward.
Very bullish about about the opportunities.
Notice that a couple other comments. Dennis, uh, We've drilled the 3 Wells and as John mentioned, we're on target for an early 2027 startup. Uh, we're going to run the pilot to validate production of uplift here. John mentioned, solvent recovery as well as overall operability. The other thing I I'd highlight is the pilot is intended to de-risk this technology and it's a very similar approach to what we took for essay, sagd.
So, I think we're well on track there, and uh, I'd Echo what, uh, the comments that John made, which is where we're we're, we're very, we're looking forward to eert technology. This is, uh, what we're looking for in terms of being a game changer for our Institute developments going forward.
Peter Shaw: Great. Really appreciate that context from both of you. I want to shift focus back maybe towards Cold Lake. Obviously, you have the Lemming SAGD project with the targeted startup here. I just wanted to think a little bit more, how should we be thinking about the Mohican SAGD project, as well as if you wouldn't mind highlighting any of the future SAGD project opportunities that exist within that field and maybe what that potentially looks like, both from an op cost perspective as well as a production perspective and level, and if there's any further updates from what you guys highlighted at the investor day. Thanks.
Great great, really appreciate that that context from both of you. Um, I, I want to shift Focus, uh, back maybe towards cold like, um, obviously you have the lemming site project with the the targeted, uh, startup here. And, um, I just wanted to think a little bit more. How should we be thinking about, uh, the make and uh, essay segd, uh, project? Um, as well as, uh, if you wouldn't mind highlighting, any of the future essays, like the project opportunities that exist within that field and maybe what that potentially looks like both from a, an OP cost perspective as well as a a production, uh, perspective and and level. And if there's any further updates from, uh, what you guys highlighted at the investor day. Thanks.
Brad Corson: I'll make a few broader comments, Dennis, and then Sheryl can come in again as well. Our plan that we laid out for 165,000 barrels per day at Cold Lake in the next few years, we still feel very good about that plan. We're committed to that plan, and there's a number of things that contribute to that. There are low-cost base optimization projects such as our laser technology. There's infill drilling using the unique compact rig that we have there to do infill drilling. That's a part of it. We're applying warm flow in a number of areas. We've got the Lemming SAGD project that I just spoke about. Grand Rapids is going extremely well as well. It's all of these building blocks and components that contribute to our confidence of getting to 165,000 barrels per day.
Brad Corson: Now, the Mohican SAGD, I'll let Sheryl come back and talk more about that. That's obviously very important, but that's a 2029 startup with a peak production of about 30,000 barrels per day. It's all of these building blocks that contribute to it. Also, the transition, the transformation really that we're making at Cold Lake, moving to these advantaged technologies and seeing ourselves continue to see in 2030 at about 40% of our production coming from that advantaged technology. I'll let Sheryl say a bit more specifically on Mohican and so on.
This I'll make a few broader comments. Dennis. And then Cheryl can, you know, come in again as well? Um, you know, our plan that we laid out for 165,000 barrels per day at at Cole Lake in the next few years, we still feel very good about that plan. We're committed to that plan, um, and there's a number of things that contribute to that. You know, there's low cost based up based optimization projects such as our Laser Technology. There's infill drilling using the unique compact rig that we have there to do infield drilling. That's a part of it. Uh, we're applying warm flow in a number of areas. We've got the lemming sag d project that I just spoke about. Uh, Grant Rapids is going extremely well, as well. So it's all of these building blocks and components that contribute to our confidence of getting to 165,000 barrels today, barrels per day. Now the mahag B, I'll let Cheryl come back and talk more about that. That's obviously very important but that's a 2029 startup with
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: Sure. Maybe I'll cycle back with Grand Rapids. You know, we're very pleased, Dennis, with our results from Grand Rapids thus far. Specific to that effort, the next three pads are currently in development, and this will fully leverage our plant capacity and offer inventory to sustain production at low capital. Now, switching to Mohican, this will be our first commercial clear water SASAGD development. John mentioned a 2029 startup. One of the things that's an enabler and projects take time in the development is we have to convert the Mohican plant, which is currently a cyclic steam facility, to a solvent-enabled SASAGD plant. All that in mind, we're on track to deliver, I'd say, more than about 50,000 barrels per day from SASAGD advantage production by the 2030 timeframe.
Peak production is about 30,000 barrels a day, but it's all of these building blocks that contribute to it. And also, you know, the transition, the transformation, really that we're making at Cold Lake, moving to these Advantage Technologies and seeing ourselves continue to see in 2030 with about 40% of our production coming from that Advantage technology. And I'll let Cheryl say a bit more specifically on the heekin. And so on, sure, maybe I'll cycle back with Grand.
About 50,000 barrels per day. From essay saggy Advantage production by the 2030 time frame.
Cheryl Gomez-Smith: The other thing maybe I'll leave with is we do have a pipeline of future SASAGD projects, you know, as I look at 2040, 2050, and we'll take those in due course.
The other thing maybe I'll leave with is we do have a pipeline of future essay sagd projects. You know as I look at 240 2050 and we'll take those in due course
Peter Shaw: Great. Thank you very much, Cheryl and John. Really appreciate that color on both of those items.
Great. Thank you very much, Cheryl and John. I really appreciate that color on both of those items.
Brad Corson: Thank you, Dennis.
Operator: We have a question from Doug Leggett with Wolf Research.
Thank you, Dennis.
And we have a question from Doug with Wolfe research.
Brad Corson: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for having me on. John, I wonder if I could ask a really simple follow-up on Kearl. Given the sustained efficiency improvements you've seen, the consistent production performance, what would you say today is the production capacity trajectory for Kearl in terms of where it is now and where you think you can get to? That's my first one. My follow-up is a quick one. It's probably for Dan. It's always for Dan, same question every quarter. You leaned on your balance sheet a little bit this quarter, and you've accelerated the timeline for your buyback. Is there any intention in the current environment for an SIB before the middle of next year?
Uh, thanks, so good morning, everyone. Thanks for having me on. Um, John, I I wonder if I could ask a really simple. Follow-up on Carroll,
Uh, G given, you know, the, the sustained efficiency improvements you've seen in the consistent production in, you know, performance, what would you say today is the, um, production capacity trajectory for Carol terms of where it is now and where you think you can get to that? That's my first 1. My, my follow-up is a quick 1, um, is probably for Dan is always for Dan. Same question every quarter. You you leaned on your balance sheet a little bit, this quarter and you've accelerated. Um, the timeline for your buyback. Is there any intention in the current environment for an sib? Uh, before the middle of next year?
Brad Corson: Thanks, Doug. Yeah, let me take the Kearl one. You know, again, I couldn't be more proud of this team and the improvements that have been made at Kearl over a number of years. I remain confident that we'll continue to make improvements at Kearl in terms of unit cost reductions and volumes uplift. I think our story is very consistent, though, with right now the way we think about it is very consistent with our investor day. We believe we have a strong foundation that supports potential for 300,000-plus barrels per day. You know, we talked about at that time the number of days that we're seeing of greater than 300,000 barrel a day days. You see the quarter that we just had and the quarter that also builds that confidence. Right now, our focus is really how do we move it to 300,000 barrels a day?
Brad Corson: I would just say the confidence in that is growing all the time. You know, we do, and we talked about that in the investor day. We have a pretty clear path to get the asset to 300,000 barrels a day with bitumen recovery projects, continued focus on individual equipment performance, extending our turnaround intervals, and the reduction duration. Feel very good about that. We're not done at 300. We're very much focused on what's the potential beyond that. We believe there is potential beyond that. We're continuing to work and develop those plans. You know, we'll share them as those get matured.
Thanks Doug. Yeah, let me, let me take the curl 1, you know. Again, I I couldn't be, um, more proud of this team and and, and the improvements that have been made at curl over a number of years. And I I remain confident that we'll continue to make improvements and at curl in terms of unit cost, you know, reductions and volumes uplift. I think our story is very consistent though with right now, the way we think about it, it's very consistent with our investor day. We believe we have a strong Foundation that supports potential for 300 plus thousand barrels per day. Um, you know, we talked about at that time, the number of days that we're seeing of a greater than 300,000 Barrel a day days. You see the quarter that we just had in the quarter that also builds that confidence. Right now, our focus is really, um, how do we move it to 300,000 barrels a day and that I would just say the confidence in that is growing all the time. And uh, you know, we do. And we talked about that
In in in the investor day. So we have a pretty clear path to get the asset to 300,000 barrels. A day with vitamin recovery. Projects continued, focus on individual equipment performance, extending our turnaround intervals, and the reduction duration, feel very good about that but we're not, we're not done at 300. We're very much focused on. You know, what's the potential beyond that we believe there is potential beyond that. And uh we're
Continuing to work and develop those plans and, you know, we'll share them as as those get matured.
Brad Corson: Thanks, John.
Brad Corson: Do you want me to take the second one?
Brad Corson: Thanks, John.
Brad Corson: Yeah. Hey, Doug. Just to address your question, as you said, as we've said here, we fully plan to complete our accelerated NCIB by year-end, consistent with what we've said a few times. Of course, looking into next year, the soonest we can renew that is late June of 2026. Of course, we plan to renew our NCIB. Your question is really around the first half of 2026. As I said before, our ability to return cash in that period really just depends on commodity prices, right? It depends on the crude prices and cracks. What we've said for a long time is, as we generate surplus cash, we'll return it in a timely way. That still remains our principle. It is really just going to be dependent on what the commodity markets give us in the first half of next year.
Thanks, John. Do you want me to take the second one? Yeah. Hey, Doug. Um,
uh,
Brad Corson: Okay. From your mouth to God's ears. Thanks, guys.
So just to kind of address address your question as you uh, as you said as we've said here, we we fully plan to complete our accelerated and CIB by year, end by year, end consistent with what we said. Um, a few times. Um, and you know, then of course, looking into next year, the soonest we can renew. That is late June of 2631 the first half of 26. And, you know, as I said before, you know, our ability to return cash in that period. Really just depends on commodity prices, right? It depends on the crude prices and cracks and um you know you know what we've said for a long time is, you know, we you know, as we generate Surplus cash we'll return it in a timely way that Still Remains our principal. So it's really just going to be dependent on what the commodity markets. Give us in the in the first half of next year.
Okay, well from your M, thanks, guys.
Brad Corson: Thank you, Doug.
Thank you, Doug.
Operator: That does conclude the question and answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Peter Shaw for closing remarks.
And that does conclude the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the conference back over to Peter Shaw for closing remarks.
Peter Shaw: Thank you. On behalf of the management team, I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the IR team, and we'll be happy to answer those. With that, we'll say thank you very much and have a great day.
Operator: Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.
Thank you, and on behalf of the management team, I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. If you have any further questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to the IR team, and we'll be happy to answer those. With that, we'll say thank you very much, and have a great day.
Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.