Q3 2025 Covenant Logistics Group Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #3: Welcome to today's Covenant Logistics group . Q3 2025 earnings Release and Investor conference call . Our host for today's call is Tripp Graham .

Paul Bunn: Welcome to today's Covenant Logistics Group Inc., Q3 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Conference Call. Our host for today's call is Tripp Grant. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to your host. Mr. Grant, you may begin, sir.

Speaker #3: At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode . Later , we will conduct a question and answer session . I would now like to turn the call over to your host , Mr. Graham .

Speaker #3: You may begin , sir .

Speaker #4: Good morning , everyone , and welcome to the Covenant Logistics Group . Third quarter 2025 conference Call . As a reminder , this call will contain forward looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act , which are subsequent to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially .

James Grant: Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Covenant Logistics Group Inc. third quarter 2025 conference call. As a reminder, this call will contain forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please review our SEC filings and most recent risk factors. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. Our prepared comments and additional financial information are available on our website at www.covenantlogistics.com/investors. Joining me today are CEO David R. Parker, President Paul Bunn, and COO Dustin Koehl. Our business remained resilient in the third quarter, although margins were compressed, particularly in our asset-based truckload segments, due to an inflationary cost environment, persistently high claims expense, headwinds from excessive unproductive equipment, and continued pressure on volume and yields in our expedited and dedicated segments.

Speaker #4: Please review our SEC filings . In most recent risk factors . We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward looking statements .

Speaker #4: Our prepared comments and additional financial information are available on our website at Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. Joining me today are CEO David Parker and President Paul Bunn.

Speaker #4: And COO Dustin Kale . Our business remained resilient in the third quarter , although margins were compressed , particularly in our asset based truckload segments due to an inflationary cost environment , persistently high claims expense headwinds from excessive unproductive equipment , and continued pressure on volume and yields in our expedited and dedicated segments year over year .

James Grant: Year-over-year highlights for the quarter include consolidated freight revenue increased by 4%, or approximately $10.2 million, to $268.9 million. Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 22.5% to $15 million, primarily as a result of year-over-year increases within our combined truckload segment. Our net indebtedness as of September 30th increased by $48.6 million to $268.3 million compared to December 31st, 2024, yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.1 times and debt-to-capital ratio of 38.8% as a result of executing our share repurchase program and acquisition-related earnout payments. The average age of our tractors at September 30th increased to 23 months compared to 20 months a year ago. On an adjusted basis, return on average invested capital was 6.9% versus 8.1% in the prior year. Now, providing a little more color on the performance of the individual business segments. Our expedited segment yielded a 93.6% adjusted operating ratio.

Speaker #4: Highlights for the quarter include consolidated freight revenue increased by 4% , or approximately $10.2 million , to $268.9 million . Consolidated adjusted operating income shrank by 22.5% to $15 million , primarily as a result of year over year increases within our combined truckload segment .

Speaker #4: Our net indebtedness as of September 30th increased by $48.6 million to $268.3 million , compared to December 31st , 2020 . For yielding an adjusted leverage ratio of approximately 2.1 times and debt to capital ratio of 38.8% .

Speaker #4: As a result of executing our share repurchase program and acquisition related earn out payments , the average age of our tractors at September 30th increased to 23 months compared to 20 months a year ago .

Speaker #4: On an adjusted basis , return on average , invested capital was 6.9% versus 8.1% in the prior year . Now , providing a little more color on the performance of the individual business segments .

Speaker #4: Our expedited segment yielded a 93.6% adjusted operating ratio . While this result falls short of our expectations for this segment , we've been pleased with the resilience of this segment over the prolonged downturn compared to the prior year .

James Grant: While this result falls short of our expectations for this segment, we've been pleased with the resilience of this segment over the prolonged downturn. Compared to the prior year, expedited adjusted operating ratio increased 160 basis points. The average fleet size shrunk by 31 units or 3.4% to 861 average tractors in the period. We expect the size of this fleet to flex up and down modestly based on various market factors. As market conditions improve, our focus will be on improving margins through rate increases, exiting less profitable business, and adding more profitable business. Dedicated's 94.7% adjusted operating ratio also fell short of both the prior year and our long-term expectations for this segment.

Speaker #4: Expedited adjusted operating ratio , increased 160 basis points . The average fleet size shrunk by 31 units , or 3.4% , to 861 .

Speaker #4: Average tractors in the period we expect the size of this fleet to flex up and down modestly , based on various market factors .

Speaker #4: As market conditions improve , our focus will be on improving margins through rate increases , exiting less profitable business , and adding more profitable business .

Speaker #4: Dedicated adjusted operating ratio of 94.7% also fell short of both the prior year and our long-term expectations for this segment. We were successful in growing the dedicated fleet by 136 tractors, or approximately 9.6%, compared to the prior year.

James Grant: We were successful in growing the Dedicated fleet by 136 tractors, or approximately 9.6% compared to the prior year, as we have continued to win new business and specialize in high-service niches within our Dedicated segment. Going forward, we plan to reduce certain of our fleet in this segment that is exposed to more commoditized end markets where returns are not justified and continue to invest in areas that provide value-added services for customers. Managed Freight exceeded both revenue and adjusted operating income compared to the prior year, but fell backward sequentially due to the loss of a short-term customer that scaled up in the first half of 2025 and rolled off in Q3. Our team showed resilience through this difficult freight cycle with their ability to bring on new freight, handle overflow freight from Expedited, and reduce costs to offset lost business.

Speaker #4: As we have continued to win new business and specialized in high service niches within our dedicated segment . Going forward , we plan to reduce certain of our fleet in this segment .

Speaker #4: That is exposed to more commoditized and markets where returns are not justified and continue to invest in areas that provide value added services for customers .

Speaker #4: Managed freight exceeded both revenue and adjusted operating income compared to the prior year, but fell backwards sequentially due to the loss of a short-term customer that scaled up in the first half of 2025 and rolled off in Q3.

Speaker #4: Our team showed resilience through this difficult freight cycle with their ability to bring on new freight , handle overflow freight from expedited and reduce costs to offset loss business over the longer term .

James Grant: Over the longer term, our strategy is to grow and diversify this segment. We note that an operating margin in the mid-single digits generates an acceptable return in capital, given the asset-light nature of this segment. Our Warehousing segment experienced freight revenue and adjusted operating income that was slightly below the prior year quarter and yielded an adjusted operating ratio of 92.1%. The adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating ratio in this segment was a solid improvement sequentially. Going forward, we anticipate top-line revenue growth and operating income growth as a result of a large customer startup scheduled for November. Our minority investment in Transport Enterprise Leasing contributed pre-tax net income of $3.6 million for the quarter compared to $4 million in the prior year period.

Speaker #4: Our strategy is to grow and diversify this segment , and we note that an operating margin in the mid single digits generates an acceptable return in capital , given the asset light nature of this segment .

Speaker #4: Our warehouse segment experienced freight revenue and adjusted operating income . That was slightly below the prior year quarter , and yielded an adjusted operating ratio of 92.1% .

Speaker #4: The adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating ratio in this segment was a solid improvement sequentially going forward , we anticipate top line revenue growth in operating income growth as a result of a large customer start up scheduled for November .

Speaker #4: Our minority investment in Tel contributed pre-tax net income of $3.6 million for the quarter , compared to $4 million in the prior year period .

Speaker #4: The impact of incremental bad debt expense in the quarter compared to the prior year reduced sales and pre-tax net income. Although overall business remains strong, exiting capacity from the general freight environment is expected to impact them again in the fourth quarter and potentially beyond.

James Grant: The impact of incremental bad debt expense in the quarter compared to the prior year reduced Transport Enterprise Leasing's pre-tax net income. Although Transport Enterprise Leasing's overall business remains strong, exiting capacity from the general freight environment is expected to impact them again in the fourth quarter and potentially beyond. Regarding our outlook for the future, we anticipate the fourth quarter of the year to remain challenging, with the continuation of a soft freight market combined with the impact of company-specific factors that will result in what we believe to be an unseasonably soft quarter, despite a slight positive impact from Peak. Company-specific factors within our line of sight include the negative impact of increased claims accruals, the negative impact the U.S.

Speaker #4: Regarding our outlook for the future , we anticipate the fourth quarter of the year to remain challenging with the continuation of a soft freight market combined with the impact of company specific factors that will result in what we believe to be an unseasonably soft quarter .

Speaker #4: Despite a slight positive impact from peak company specific factors . Within our line of sight include the negative impact of increased claims accruals , the negative impact the US government shutdown is having on volumes of freight we carry for the Department of Defense , and accelerated customer bankruptcies with tell will all prove to be challenges for the quarter .

James Grant: government shutdown is having on volumes of freight we carry for the Department of Defense, and accelerated customer bankruptcies with Transport Enterprise Leasing will all prove to be challenges for the quarter. In addition, as capacity exits accelerate within the general market, we anticipate the cost to procure transportation will likely lead to our ability to capture rate increases from our customers in our managed freight segment, resulting in constrained margins. Despite both the general market and company-specific challenges over the short term, we are increasingly optimistic about the pace at which the freight market should recover. Recent enforcement of government policies concerning English language and non-domiciled drivers have seemed to accelerate the pace of capacity exiting the market. We believe the impact of this trend is being masked by consumer pause and uncertainty as a result of elevated interest rates and volatility of global trade policy.

Speaker #4: In addition , as capacity exits accelerate within the general market , we anticipate the cost to procure transportation will likely lead our ability to capture rate increases from our customers and our managed freight segment , resulting in constrained margins .

Speaker #4: Despite both the general market and company specific challenges over the short term , we are increasingly optimistic about the pace at which the freight market should recover .

Speaker #4: Recent enforcement of government policies concerning English language and non-domicile drivers have seemed to accelerate the pace of capacity exiting the market . We believe the impact of this trend is being masked by consumer pause and uncertainty .

Speaker #4: As a result of elevated interest rates and volatility of global trade policy . Our belief is that consumer demand will improve with the continuation of monetary easing and the eventual settlement of trade tensions .

James Grant: Our belief is that consumer demand will improve with the continuation of monetary easing and the eventual settlement of trade tensions. In addition, the impact of recent tax policy will further facilitate demand. Regardless of when the market environment turns, our team is ready to move quickly to execute with urgency to capture additional market share and the appropriate amount of operational leverage that returns appropriate levels of capital to our shareholders. Thank you for your time, and we will now open the call for any questions.

Speaker #4: In addition, the impact of recent tax policy will further facilitate demand regardless of when the market environment turns. Our team is ready to move quickly to execute with urgency to capture additional market share and the appropriate amount of operational leverage that returns appropriate levels of capital to our shareholders.

Speaker #4: Thank you for your time , and we will now open the call for any questions .

Speaker #3: If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your phone now, and you'll be placed into the queue in the order received.

Paul Bunn: If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your phone now, and you'll be placed into the queue in the order received. Please be prepared to ask your question when prompted. Once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your phone now. Our first question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

Speaker #3: Please be prepared to ask your question when prompted . Once again , if you would like to ask a question , please press star one on your phone .

Speaker #3: Now . And our first question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research .

Speaker #5: Hey , thanks . Good morning . So I want to start where you wrapped up . Just talking about the capacity backdrop and maybe just give us some color on what you're actually seeing in the market with respect to capacity , how big of a deal do you think this is , is going to have ?

[Analyst 1]: Hey, thanks. Good morning. I want to start where you wrapped up, just talking about the capacity backdrop and maybe just give us some color on what you're actually seeing in the market with respect to capacity exits. How big of a deal do you think this is going to have? I don't know, maybe just like a, you know, there's certainly more talk in the market about this. Why don't you think we're seeing any impact on like national spot rates? I know there's a lot of talk about local markets getting tighter, but why do you think this isn't showing up necessarily in national spot rate data?

Speaker #5: And then , I don't know , maybe just like a , you know , there's certainly more talk in the market about this .

Speaker #5: Why don't you think we're seeing any impact on like national spot rates ? I know there's a lot to talk about . Local markets getting tighter , but why do you think this isn't showing up necessarily in national spot rate data ?

Speaker #6: Hey , Scott , this is David . Yeah . I mean , this is something that , you know , been driving me crazy trying to figure out where all this is going .

David R. Parker: Hey, Scott. It's David. This is something that has been driving me crazy trying to figure out where all this is going. I would say a couple of things because it's a great first question. From a standpoint, I'm more excited. I've been in this thing 53 years. I'm more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years. I see some things that we've never, ever been in a position where we are starting to get the government that is now starting to get concerned about who's driving trucks and why should they be driving them. You are sensing that, and I just see an avalanche that's in the process of happening. As I think about from spot rates, we have seen compression on margins on our brokerage side in the last three weeks when all this stuff started.

Speaker #6: And I would say a couple of things because it's great . First question from a standpoint , I'm more excited I've been in this thing 53 years .

Speaker #6: I'm more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career. For the next 2 to 3 years, I see some things that we've never, ever been in a position where we are starting to get the government that is now starting to get concerned about who's driving trucks and why they should be driving them.

Speaker #6: And you are sensing that . And I just see a avalanche that's in the process of happening . And as I think about from spot rates , I mean , we have seen we have seen compression on margins on our brokerage side in the last three weeks when all this stuff started and it is right now defined to a lot of individual states .

David R. Parker: It is right now defined to a lot of individual states. I met yesterday with our brokerage group, and California, Texas, Oklahoma, Chicago, those are states and cities that keep coming up over and over. You have got third parties that are scared to go to those states, right, wrong, or indifferent. That is the reason why you are seeing, instead of across the board, that you are seeing, I believe, spot areas of the country where it's becoming tighter and rates have gone up in those areas because a lot of these truckers just don't want to go. I'm not going to Oklahoma. I heard Oklahoma pulled over 135 trucks and sent everybody to jail and all those stories that we're all hearing. I'm not going to Laredo, Texas. They're going to stop everybody that can't speak English. That is really leading the effort.

Speaker #6: And I met yesterday with our brokerage group and California , Texas , Oklahoma , Chicago , those are states and cities that keep coming up over and over and you have got third parties that are scared to go to those states .

Speaker #6: Right ? Wrong or indifferent . And that's the reason why you are seeing instead , across the board that you are seeing . I believe you know , spot areas of the country where it's becoming tighter and rates have gone up in those areas because a lot of these truckers just don't want to go .

Speaker #6: I'm not going to Oklahoma . I heard Oklahoma pulled over 135 trucks and , you know , send everybody to jail and all those all those stories that were all hearing , I'm not going to Laredo , Texas .

Speaker #6: You know , they're going to they're going to stop everybody . They can't speak English . And and so that is really leading the effort .

Speaker #6: Now , that said , will it be a red versus blue states , red being aggressive blue not being as aggressive . But I'm here to tell you that if they continue to have we if we all continue to wake up every day with another fatality accident by illegal immigrant , it is going to spread throughout the United States .

David R. Parker: That said, will it be a red versus blue states? Red being aggressive, blue not being as aggressive. I'm here to tell you that if they continue to have, if we all continue to wake up every day with another fatality accident by an illegal immigrant, it is going to spread throughout the United States. As I look at this, as I look at non-domiciled CDLs, as I look at the English-speaking issue, as I look at ELDs, there is more cheating going on and toggling is unbelievable, guys, than what's going on with ELDs. So far, the government has suspended five or six companies. I'm here to tell you there's going to have to be hundreds. There's about 950 that are approved ELD suppliers, and they need to look at every one of these ELD suppliers.

Speaker #6: And as I look at this , as I look at Non-domiciled , CDL , as I look at the English speaking issue , as I look at E , there is more cheating going on in toggling is unbelievable .

Speaker #6: Guys , the what's going on with Elds and I and so far the government has suspended 5 or 6 companies . I'm here to tell you there's going to have to be hundreds .

Speaker #6: There's about 950 that are approved . Eld suppliers , and they need to look at every one of these Eld suppliers . We we all thought that when we went to Elds that everything was going to be legal .

David R. Parker: We all thought that when we went to ELDs that everything was going to be legal and you're not going to have logbooks and everybody's not going to be cheating. I'm here to tell you, us big guys, we love the ELDs. We love not having logbooks, but when you have toggling going on, it's rampant cheating that is happening. I run a truck 100,000 miles. They're running trucks 140,000 miles. The government is just now, for the first time ever, starting to go down this road. I feel very confident that over the next six months, one year, two years, whatever it's going to be, it's going to be a snowballing effect that we are going to have fewer drivers on the road. We're going to have safer drivers on the road. We're going to have English-speaking people that can have the ability to speak English and understand it.

Speaker #6: And you're not going to have logbooks and everybody's not going to be cheating . Well , I'm here to tell you , us big guys , we love the Elds , we love not having logbooks .

Speaker #6: But when you got toggling going on , it's rampant cheating that is happening . I run a truck 100,000 miles . They're running trucks 140,000 miles .

Speaker #6: And so the government is just now , for the first time ever , that is starting to go down this road . And so I feel very confident that over the next six months , one year , two years , whatever it's going to be , it's going to be a snowballing effect that we are going to have less drivers on the road .

Speaker #6: We're going to have safer drivers on the road . We're going to have English speaking people that can have the ability to speak English and understand it .

Speaker #6: We are going to have Elds are going to be a much better shape , get rid of the multiple Imsi numbers , guys .

David R. Parker: We are going to have ELDs that are going to be in much better shape. Get rid of the multiple MC numbers. Guys, it's rampant with shutting down this, opening up that one. Today I shut down, tomorrow I open up another one. We're just now learning about this and just now started to do anything about it. As I look at capacity, one of the things that excites me is this is coming to a head. It's in the process of exiting, but as good as anything, I'm here to tell you the funnel is stopping coming in. Whatever that number is that's leaving, whether it's 1,000 or 200,000, they're going to leave, but there's not going to be a flood of entries coming in. That is extremely encouraging that for the first time in my 53 years, there's actually a constraining of supply that's happening.

Speaker #6: It's rampant with shutting down this opening up that one today I shut down , tomorrow I open up another one . We're just now learning about this and just now starting to do anything about it .

Speaker #6: So as I look at capacity , one of the things that excites me is this is coming to a head . It's going to be it's in the process of exiting .

Speaker #6: But as good as anything . I'm here to tell you , the funnel is stopping coming in . Whatever that number is that's leaving , whether it's 1000 or 200,000 , they're going to leave , but there's not going to be a flood of entries coming in .

Speaker #6: And so that is extremely encouraging that for the first time in my 53 years , there's actually a constraining of supply that's happening .

Speaker #6: And there's not going to be a bunch of new drivers from all over the world . That's entering the truck driving workforce . I look at that .

David R. Parker: There's not going to be a bunch of new drivers from all over the world that's entering the truck driving workforce. I look at that, Scott, and I'll shut up here in a minute. You asked the first question of what I've been ate alive with for the last month. As I look at this supply, then I start looking at what the Fed is doing on interest rates. They're going to continue to lower interest rates. They're going to continue to pump the economy up. This physical, the stimulus package that we all hear Trump talk about, $17 trillion, $20 trillion, $8 trillion, I don't know what the number is. The only thing I do know is gigantic. There is a lot of freight on these plants that are being built in America, even if it takes two years.

Speaker #6: Scott , and I'll shut up here in a minute . You asked the first question of what I've been alive with for the last month , but as I look at this supply , then I start looking at what the fed is doing on interest rates .

Speaker #6: They're going to continue to lower interest rates . They're going to continue to pump the economy up . This physical , the stimulus package that we all hear Trump talk about , 17 trillion , 20,000,000,000,008 I don't know what the number is .

Speaker #6: I don't think I do know it's gigantic . And there is a lot of freight on these plants that are being built in America , even if it takes two years .

Speaker #6: There is a lot of business that's coming to America . That's got a lot of freight in it . On from these new plants .

David R. Parker: There is a lot of business that's coming to America that's got a lot of freight in it from these new plants that are going to be coming up. As I look at supply, I am more excited than I've ever been. There is no doubt. I think we and the industry, we got some junk to go through. What do I mean by that? Brokerage, margin compression, it's happening now. I see it in our business. All the brokers are going to see it in their business. As I look at used truck markets as we speak today, it's less than what I want, but I believe it's going to turn around fairly soon, maybe next year, because nobody's going to buy a Class 8 truck. We don't even know what we're going to pay for a Class 8 truck.

Speaker #6: They're going to be coming up . So as I look at supply , I am more excited than I've ever been . There is no doubt .

Speaker #6: I think we and the industry , we got some junk to go through . What do I mean by that ? Brokerage margin compression .

Speaker #6: It's happening now . I see it in our business . All the brokers are going to see it in their business . As I look at used truck markets as we speak today , it's it's less than what I want .

Speaker #6: But I believe it's going to turn around fairly soon, maybe next year, because nobody's going to buy a Class Eight truck. We don't know what we're going to pay for.

Speaker #6: A class eight truck . I'm at ATA next week in San Diego and I can't tell you what a price of a truck is right now , or if I am even going to buy one .

David R. Parker: I'm at ATA next week in San Diego, and I can't tell you what the price of a truck is right now, or if I am even going to buy one. It's going to drive up the used truck prices. I'm happy about that. This government shutdown has hurt me on my Department of Defense business, but you know I'm a month into it. We'll see what happens there, but it's not helping. Eventually, it will go back to work and everything will be good there. Lastly, I was just telling the guys here before we got on here, one of the things that I'm really excited about, as we all know, our industry has not raised rates in four years. We haven't raised rates virtually at all in four years.

Speaker #6: So it's going to drive up the used truck prices so that that I'm happy about that . This government should shut down . It's hurting me on my Department of Defense business .

Speaker #6: But you know , I'm a month into it . We'll see what happens there . But it's not helping . Eventually . It will .

Speaker #6: Eventually it'll go back to work and everything will be good . There . But and lastly , I was just telling the guys here before we got on here , one of the things that I'm really excited about , as we all know , our industry is not raised rates in four years hadn't raised rates virtually at all in four years .

Speaker #6: And I was in a meeting in the last couple of days with sales and both on our legacy dedicated and on our expedited .

David R. Parker: I was in a meeting in the last couple of days with sales, and both on our legacy Dedicated and on our Expedited, we've got eight or ten accounts that we have asked for rate increases and actually have been given 2.5% to 4% in the last couple of weeks. That excites me. Is that something that's going to happen on every customer I got? I don't know, but I haven't seen it in four years, and I'm starting to see it. I'm starting to see bids at all-time highs. You're seeing the customers. Our bids are up 17% since August. That doesn't happen. That's a November, December, January, February event, and it started happening in August and September. Why is that? It's because our customers are concerned about capacity, even though we all need freight right now. Scott, I'll shut up.

Speaker #6: We've got 8 or 10 accounts that we have asked for rate increases and actually have been given two and a half to 4% in the last couple of weeks .

Speaker #6: That excites me . Is that a is that something that's going to happen on every customer I got ? I don't know , but I haven't seen it in four years and I'm starting to see it .

Speaker #6: I'm starting to see bids at all time highs . So you're seeing the customers . Our bids are up 17% since August . Well , that don't happen .

Speaker #6: That's a that's a November , December , January , February event . And it started happening in August and September . Why is that ?

Speaker #6: It's because our customers are concerned about capacity . Even though we all need freight right now . So , Scott , I'll shut up as I look at it .

David R. Parker: As I look at it, I'm more excited than I've ever been about 2026, 2027, 2028. If anybody's ever going to buy a trucker, it's now. If they don't buy truckers now, they don't need to be buying truckers. That's where I'm at.

Speaker #6: I'm more excited than I've ever been . About 26 , 27 , 28 if anybody's ever going to buy a trucker , it's now .

Speaker #6: If they don't buy truckers now , they don't need to be buying truckers . So that's where I'm at .

Speaker #7: Hey , Scott , let me give you a couple things . You know , David talked a lot about the regulation and there's no doubt that we're sensing it .

Paul Bunn: Hey, Scott, let me give you a couple of things. You know, David talked a lot about the regulation, and there's no doubt that we're sensing it. You know, he's given some color on maybe demand, you know, freight going forward. I would say there's a couple of words we're using internally right now. One is patience. I think we're all going to have some patience, and I'll get a little bit into that. The other is, you know, there's going to be some pain before there's some gain. Pain in used truck prices, and you know, as these smaller guys go bankrupt and flood the market, pain with some brokerage compression. Every time in history in this business, there has to be pain before there's gain, and I think that's where we're at.

Speaker #7: And then , you know , he's given some color on maybe demand , you know , freight going forward . I would say there's a couple words .

Speaker #7: We're using internally right now . One is patience . I think we're all going to have some patience . And I'll get a little bit into that .

Speaker #7: The other is , you know , there's going to be some pain before there's some gain . And pain . And used truck prices and you know , it's these smaller guys go bankrupt and flood the market pain with some brokerage compression .

Speaker #7: But but every time in history in this business there has to be pain before there's gain . And I think that's where we're at on the patient side of things specific to your spot market question , the the week after Secretary Duffey came out and talked about the Non-domiciled Cdls , I think you did see spot rates go up .

Paul Bunn: On the patience side of things, specific to your spot market question, the week after Secretary Duffy came out and talked about the non-domiciled CDLs, I think you did see spot rates go up, especially in those markets David was talking about. What happened was a lot of those folks just stayed home. A lot of these non-domiciled CDLs have been issued in a, they're concentrated in a handful of states. I mean, there's some in every state, but there's some West Coast states that had a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs. The reason you hadn't seen the spot rates jump up is that the two largest West Coast states that have the non-domiciled CDLs, they have not, they're in the process of trying to figure out what are they going to do with the people that have the non-domiciled CDLs.

Speaker #7: And especially in those markets , David was talking about and what happened was a lot of those folks just stayed home . A lot of these known , these non-domiciled Cdls have been issued in a in a they're concentrated in a handful of states .

Speaker #7: I mean , there's some in every state , but there's some West Coast states that had a lot of these Non-domiciled Cdls the reason you hadn't seen the spot rates jump up is the two largest West Coast states that have the non-domiciled Cdls , they have not .

Speaker #7: They're in the process of trying to figure out what are they going to do with the people that have the non-domiciled cdls . And so I think California is supposed to decide in the next five days , they're supposed to direct carriers what to do with those drivers .

Paul Bunn: I think California is supposed to decide in the next five days, they're supposed to direct carriers what to do with those drivers. The first five, six, ten days, you had some people that maybe had those type licenses stay home. They've had to get back to work, so they're still out there running around. In the next five to ten days, California is going to tell the carriers, here's what we want you to do, here's the process to do that. I think that's when you're going to start seeing some of that capacity exit. I mean, I think on that side, it's probably sooner than later. To David's point, the other is, you know, you're stopping filling the bucket with new entrants into the market.

Speaker #7: And so , you know , the first , the first five , six , ten days , you had some people that maybe had those type licenses stay home .

Speaker #7: Well , they've had to get back to work . So they're still out there running around in the next 5 to 10 days .

Speaker #7: You're going to California is going to tell the carriers , here's what we want you to do . Here's the process to do that .

Speaker #7: And so I think that's when you're going to start seeing some of that capacity exit . I think I think on that side , it's probably sooner than later .

Speaker #7: And then to David's point , the other is , you know , you're stopping filling the bucket with new entrants into the market .

Speaker #7: So I don't know if that helps paint a picture on maybe why the spot rates haven't jumped , but you know , you had some of them stay home right when it came out .

Paul Bunn: I don't know if that helps paint a picture on maybe why the spot rates haven't jumped, but you know, you had some of them stay home right when it came out, then they've gotten back to work. I think in the next five to ten days, you're going to see some of these states roll out the policies that, you know, here's what you do. I think over 30 days after that is when you'll start seeing some of this capacity exit.

Speaker #7: Then they've gotten back to work . But but I think in the next 5 to 10 days you're going to see some of these states roll out the policies that , you know , here's what you do .

Speaker #7: And I think over 30 days after that is when you'll start seeing some of this capacity exit.

Speaker #5: Okay . Super helpful , David , at the risk of getting your blood pressure any higher , can I I'd like to ask a follow up if I can .

[Analyst 1]: Okay. Super helpful. David, at the risk of getting your blood pressure any higher, I'd like to ask a follow-up if I can. How do I think about how many of these drivers do you have, you know, from just your perspective on enforcement? It's always been easier to enforce large fleets than mom-and-pop truckers. How do you change this? Is your perspective here that ultimately this is going to be a big help for large fleets? Is it a risk to the brokerage model in general?

Speaker #5: How how do I think about like how many of these drivers do you have ? You know , from just your perspective on enforcement , like , you know , it's always been easier to enforce large fleets than mom and pop truckers .

Speaker #5: Like , how does how do you change this and then like , but is your perspective here that ultimately like this is going to be , you know , a big help for large fleets ?

Speaker #5: And is it a risk to the broker , to a brokerage model in general ?

Speaker #6: Yeah , yeah . I mean , you know , we got a $200 million brokerage and it does concern me because I think led by Duffy at Dot , I think that they're going to I think there's going to be enough leading from Dot that is going to go after more of the small carriers that are illegal than it is the big carriers .

David R. Parker: Yeah, I mean, you know, we got a $200 million brokerage, and it does concern me because I think led by Duffy at DOT, I think that there's going to be enough leading from DOT that is going to go after more of the small carriers that are illegal than it is the big carriers. I think that I'm concerned about compression on my margins on my brokerage. I think after a period of time, whether that's three months, six months, I don't know, but a period of time, you'll start seeing the asset rates rise very nicely to all that will offset any of the brokerage compression.

Speaker #6: So yeah , I think that I'm concerned about compression on my margins , on my brokerage . But I think after a period of time , whether that's three months , six months , I don't know .

Speaker #6: But a period of time that you'll start seeing the asset rates rise very nicely to . That will offset any of the brokerage compression .

Speaker #7: Yeah , I think Scott , when I was referring to there's going to be some pain before there's gain , I think that that that was probably more on the brokerage side .

Paul Bunn: Yeah. I think, Scott, when I was referring to there's going to be some pain before there's gain, I think that that was probably more on the brokerage side because there will be some pain going through this with a lot of brokerages. Your point, it should help asset companies more.

Speaker #7: You know , because there there will be some pain going through through this with a lot of brokerages and you're point it should help asset companies more .

Speaker #7: Okay . But broker broker brokers make money . Yeah yeah . Brokers make money when when rates are rising hard . When rates are falling hard .

[Analyst 1]: Okay.

Paul Bunn: Brokers make money.

[Analyst 1]: Let me ask one last thing.

Paul Bunn: Yeah, go ahead.

[Analyst 1]: Brokers make money when rates are rising hard, when rates are falling hard. Where are they getting troubles? In the middle, and if you got contract rates and it hadn't reset, it'll, you know.

Speaker #7: And so where are they getting troubles in . You know , in the middle . And if you got contract rates and hadn't reset .

Speaker #7: So .

Speaker #6: And if the government was not doing nothing , if the government was just going to be on the sidelines , it all go back to way .

David R. Parker: If the government was not doing nothing, if the government was just going to be on the sidelines, it'd all go back to the way it's always been for 40 years. I don't believe that's happening. I believe that there's an unbelievable amount of pressure that, A, that the government is putting on it, but I think constituents are putting back to the government now saying, "Am I going to wake up every day to a fatality accident?

Speaker #6: It's always been for 40 years . But I don't believe that's happening . And believe that there's unbelievable amount of pressure that a that the government is putting on it .

Speaker #6: But I think constituents are putting back to the government now saying , am I going to wake up every day to a fatality accident ?

Speaker #5: Okay . And then just last one , if I can , just turning to your business , you talked about near term pain in Q4 .

[Analyst 1]: Okay. Just last one, if I can, just turning to your business, you talked about near-term pain in Q4. Any way to sort of size sort of what you're thinking about for Q4? I know you've got a lot of like that line haul LTL business. How's that performing right now?

Speaker #5: Any way to sort of size , sort of what what you're thinking about for Q4 . And I know you're you've got a lot of like that Linehaul LTL business how , how how's that performing right now ?

Speaker #6: Yeah , the LTL is down and it's interesting because , you know , forever LTL would slow down in November , December . That was typical , to be honest with you .

David R. Parker: Yeah, the LTL is down. It's interesting because, you know, forever, LTL would slow down in November, December. That was typical. To be honest with you, from COVID for two or three years, say 2021, 2022, 2023, we really didn't see the LTLs really slow down a lot. The LTL guys are slow. I mean, you know, their business has been hit. I think overall, the volumes are down. I don't know when that is necessarily going to come back. It will, but I don't know when it's going to be. Yeah, I look at that. That concerns me. I look at how long is the government shutdown going to be on my Department of Defense business because it's only, you know, it's only half of what it was, and so we got to deal with that. Then compression on the brokerage side of the business.

Speaker #6: From Covid for 2 or 3 years , say 21 , 22 , 23 . We really didn't see the ltls really slow down a lot , but the LTL guys are slow .

Speaker #6: I mean , you know , their their business has been hit and and I think overall that volumes are down and I don't know when that is necessarily going to come back .

Speaker #6: It will . But I don't know when it's going to be . So yeah , I look at that that concerns me . I look at how long the government shutdown going to be on my DoD business , because it's only , you know , it's only half of what it was .

Speaker #6: And so we got we got to deal with that . And then compression on the on the , on the brokerage side of the business .

Speaker #6: So I think we got to go through that junk , you know , on our tail business . I'm happy about a couple of things .

David R. Parker: I think we got to go through that junk. You know, in our TEL business, I'm happy about a couple of things. They've grown, more business, you know, more sales, more leases is what I'm trying to think of. They've brought more customers so far in the last six weeks, which is a good sign. They also have had to take back more trucks than they've had. I'm seeing some sloppiness in the TEL business that concerns me. I think all that adds up to fourth quarter that it ain't going to be third quarter. It's going to be less than third quarter. I'll let y'all and Tripp talk.

Speaker #6: They've grown up more business . You know more sales , more leases is what I'm trying to think of . They brought customers so far in the last six weeks , which is a good sign .

Speaker #6: But they also had to take back more trucks than they've had . So I'm seeing some sloppiness in the tail business that that concerns me .

Speaker #6: And so I think all that adds up to fourth quarter that it ain't going to be third quarter . It's going to be less than third quarter .

Speaker #6: And I'll let y'all . And yeah .

Speaker #4: I think .

Speaker #6: It's it's .

James Grant: I think it's too early to put a number on it, Scott, but I would say it's softer than what it seasonably will be for all of the reasons that David talked about, mostly on the truckload side and also on the tail side. I think from our line of sight and what we have seen, even though it's early in this quarter, and the visibility that we have into Expedited, which there's a little bit of good peak in freight in there, but it's not enough to offset some of the negatives that we've seen over the first two or three weeks of October. I do think it's unseasonably softer, but I'd be hesitant to put a.

Speaker #4: Too early to put a number on it Scott . But I would say it's softer than what it's seasonably will be for all of the reasons that David talked about mostly on the truckload side and also on the tail side , I think from our line of sight and what we have seen , even though it's early in this quarter and then the visibility that we have in the peak , which there's some a little bit of good peak in freight in there , but it's not enough to offset some of the negatives that we've seen over the last first 2 or 3 weeks of , of October .

Speaker #4: So I do think it's unseasonably softer , but I'd be hesitant to put .

Speaker #6: A , you know , I mean , that's interesting because I am I am somewhat optimistic about what I'm seeing about peak business and , and some of our customers have already gotten back with us saying that carriers have given back freight to them , which is on the brokerage side , and so that's also interesting to me .

David R. Parker: That's interesting because I am somewhat optimistic about what I'm seeing about peak business. Some of our customers have already gotten back with us saying that carriers have given back freight to them, which is on the brokerage side. That's also interesting to me. Peak is not going to take care of some of the reductions, but I am optimistic that peak seems like it might be a decent peak for us.

Speaker #6: So , yeah , peak is not going to take care of some of the reductions , but I am optimistic that peak seems like it might be a decent peak for us .

Speaker #5: All right . Super helpful . Thank you guys .

[Analyst 1]: All right. Super helpful. Thank you, guys.

Speaker #8: Was that operator at John David? Your cell phone. Is it? I can hear you talking about the operator.

Paul Bunn: Where's that operator at? John, can you dial on your cell phone? He says, "I can hear you talking about operator.

Speaker #5: Guys , I don't know if you can still hear me , but just so you know , we can hear you .

Tripp Grant: Guys, I don't know if you can still hear me, but just so you know, we can hear you.

Speaker #6: Okay .

Speaker #8: Thank you . I'm gonna .

David R. Parker: Okay, thank you.

Speaker #4: Put it on mute or operator has disappeared .

James Grant: We're going to put it on mute. Our operator has disappeared.

Speaker #6: Yeah , we're trying to see if there's any more . Any other questions ?

David R. Parker: Yeah, we're trying to see if there's any other questions.

Speaker #5: Maybe . Maybe you convince the operators . Busy buying trucking stocks .

Tripp Grant: Maybe you convince the operator who's busy buying trucking stocks.

Speaker #4: He's busy .

James Grant: He's busy, yeah. The market is open.

Speaker #8: Yeah . Market is open .

Speaker #6: Hey , guys , we're trying to get hold of the operator to see if they can facilitate any more questions . So . We'll see what .

David R. Parker: Hey, guys, we're trying to get a hold of the operator to see if they can facilitate any more questions. We'll see what happens.

Speaker #8: Happens .

Speaker #5: Just so there's not dead air, do you want me to ask more questions?

Tripp Grant: Just so there's not dead air, do you want me to ask more questions?

Speaker #6: Yes , please .

David R. Parker: Yes, please.

Speaker #5: So , sure . I mean , let's talk pricing a little bit . You . I think you said you're starting to have some bid activity .

Tripp Grant: Let's talk pricing a little bit. I think you said you're starting to have some bid activity. Just what you're seeing from a pricing standpoint. Early thoughts on 2026 bid season.

Speaker #5: Just , you know what your you know what you're seeing from a pricing standpoint . Early thoughts on 26 bid season .

Speaker #7: You know Scott . Yeah , it's it's really as David said we're going out to some customers and you know I think . Low low single digits is is kind of the norm .

Paul Bunn: You know, Scott, yes, it's early. As David said, we're going out to some customers. I think low single digits is kind of the norm. I mean, we need a lot more than that. Inflation has been significant in 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. I'm betting the price of trucks is going to go up next year, and health insurance and casualty insurance is going to go up. We need a lot more. I think low single digits, there are customers that are willing to have good active discussions around those numbers, just from the recent experience we've had.

Speaker #7: I mean you know we need a lot more than that . You know inflation has been significant in 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 .

Speaker #7: And , you know , I'm I'm betting the price of trucks is going to go up next year . And health insurance and casualty insurance is going to go up .

Speaker #7: And so , you know , we need a lot more . But but I think low single digits , there are customers that are willing to have , you know , good active discussions around those numbers .

Speaker #7: You know, just from the recent experience we've had.

Speaker #5: Okay . And you made a comment that no one wants to buy trucks right now . What you're going you'll be at ETA next week .

[Analyst 1]: Okay. You made a comment that no one wants to buy trucks right now. What are you doing from a fleet perspective? What are you thinking about from a?

Speaker #5: But what are you doing from a fleet perspective ? What are you how are you thinking about from a .

Speaker #7: So a couple things I'll speak to it . Yeah I'll speak to it and then let David follow up . But first off nobody's pricing most years most of the large fleets already have pricing by this point .

Paul Bunn: A couple of things. I'll speak to it and then let David follow up. First off, nobody's pricing. Most years, most of the large fleets already have pricing by this point. With all the questions around tariffs, and you know, there were some announcements in late September, early October about additional potential big truck tariffs. Is that on the whole truck? Is that on parts of the truck? Which vendors? There's a lot that's been up in the air. Hopefully, by next week, we'll know more. We're meeting with all the OEMs while out in San Diego. I think nobody's been placing orders because you don't know what the price is, A. B, the order boards at all these OEMs are very slack right now. In the fourth quarter going into next year, order boards are very, very slack on truck and trailer equipment.

Speaker #7: But with all the questions around tariffs and , you know , there were some announcements in early , you know , late September , early October about additional potential big truck tariffs .

Speaker #7: And , you know , is that on the whole truck is that on parts of the truck is that , you know , which vendors , you know , there's a lot that's been up in the air .

Speaker #7: Hopefully by next week we'll we'll know more . We're meeting with all the OEMs while out in San Diego . And so I think nobody's been placing orders because you don't know what the price is .

Speaker #7: A B . The order boards at all these OEMs are very slack right now . I mean , it , you know , in the fourth quarter , going into next year , order boards are very , very slack on on truck and trailer equipment as far as as far as our fleet numbers .

Paul Bunn: As far as our fleet numbers, I think our total fleet size in total, Tripp, probably be about the same. We may rationalize a little bit of business if we can't get the margin out of it. Tripp, from a net CapEx standpoint next year, I'll let you give them that.

Speaker #7: You know , I think our total fleet size in total . You know , probably be about the same . We may rationalize a little bit of business if we can't get the margin out of it .

Speaker #7: You know , from a CapEx , net CapEx standpoint , next year , I'll let you give them that .

Speaker #8: Yeah , I , I think .

James Grant: Yeah. I think, one, it's a big question mark. It has got to be somewhere probably net in the neighborhood between $70 million to $80 million, but I would be hesitant to commit to that. I would say that could be subject to change. We have a number of new trucks that we have financed and are sitting on the fence that are ready to go into service. We have quite a bit of unproductive equipment right now, whether it's new or used. We don't want to fire sell it. I think we're in the position to kind of sit on it for a little bit longer and take advantage of a market swing.

Speaker #4: One , it's a big question mark . It has got to be somewhere probably net in the neighborhood between 70 to $80 million .

Speaker #4: But I would be hesitant to commit to that . I would say that could be subject to change . We have a number of new trucks that we have financed and are sitting on the fence that are ready to go into service , and so we have quite a bit of unproductive equipment right now , whether it's new or used .

Speaker #4: We don't want to fire or sell it . We don't . You know , I , I think we're in the position to kind of sit on it for a little bit longer and take advantage of a market swing .

Speaker #4: But at the same time , our fleet , although it aged . probably 2 or 3 months compared to the prior year , it's a little bit of a misnomer because we've got a lot of new equipment that hasn't gone into service , so our fleet is very , very healthy .

James Grant: At the same time, our fleet, although it aged probably two or three months compared to the prior year, it's a little bit of a misnomer because we've got a lot of new equipment that hasn't gone into service. Our fleet is very, very healthy. Our balance sheet remains very, very healthy, and we're going to buy some equipment. It's hard to commit to a number when you don't have pricing on it. I think that gives us a little bit of an advantage over some of the other peers in our group as we've been pretty consistent about replacement and replacing our fleets in bad times and having a good, healthy fleet with the latest and greatest safety equipment on it and the best, you know, MPG, if you will, so fuel economy. That's what we're going to continue to do. We're going to continue to operate that playbook.

Speaker #4: Our balance sheet remains very , very healthy , and we're going to buy some equipment . We just it's hard to commit to a number when you don't have pricing on it .

Speaker #4: And I think that gives us a little bit of an advantage over some of the other peers in our group , as we've been pretty consistent about replacement and replacing our fleets and bad times and having a good , healthy fleet with the latest and greatest safety equipment on it .

Speaker #4: And the best , you know , MPG , if you will . So fuel economy and and so that's what we're going to continue to do .

Speaker #4: We're going to continue to operate that playbook . And I think we've got a little more flexibility than maybe some of the others in the market to to whether it's either delay purchase or reduce purchases next year .

James Grant: I think we've got a little more flexibility than maybe some of the others in the market to whether it's either delay purchase or reduce purchases next year, but we're just kind of in wait-and-hold mode in terms of absolute volumes.

Speaker #4: But we're just kind of in wait-and-hold mode. And in terms of absolute volumes.

Speaker #5: Have you guys tracked down the operator yet ?

[Analyst 1]: Have you guys tracked down the operator yet?

Speaker #6: Nope . There you go . Operator .

David R. Parker: No. There you go, Operator.

Speaker #7: Yes .

Paul Bunn: Yes. Yes.

Speaker #9: Yes .

Speaker #6: What about the more question ?

[Analyst 1]: That's more questions.

Speaker #10: Yes . Our next question comes from from Jason Seidl from TD Cowan . Please go ahead . Jason .

Paul Bunn: Yes. Our next question comes from Jason Seidl from TD Cowen. Please go ahead, Jason.

Speaker #11: Hey , hey . Thank you . I appreciate you joining the fray again . You know , David , one of the things I love about you , you're just so calm about the markets and not really ever enthused .

James Grant: Hey, thank you. I appreciate you joining the fray again. You know, David, one of the things I love about you, you're just so calm about the markets and not really ever enthused. Don't change. I wanted to touch a little more on two different things. Can you talk a little bit about the government shutdown and the Department of Defense? You said that business is down about half. Sort of how should we expect that to flow through the P&L? Once the government does reopen, whenever that may be, how quickly do you expect that freight to come back? I have a question on sort of capacity.

Speaker #11: So don't change . I wanted to I wanted to touch a little more on on two different things . You know , can you talk a little bit about the the government shutdown and the DoD ?

Speaker #11: You know , you said that business is down about half sort of how should we expect that to flow through the personnel ? And then once the government does reopen , whenever that may be , how quickly do you expect that freight to come back ?

Speaker #11: And then I have a question on sort of capacity .

Speaker #7: Yeah. So, Jason, this is Paul. A couple of things.

Paul Bunn: Yeah, Jason, this is Paul. A couple of things.

Speaker #8: Hey , Paul .

James Grant: Hey, Paul.

Speaker #7: On the on the DoD business , I would say about half that business . We will kind of just be lost . There's there's kind of the way they move that freight .

Paul Bunn: On the Department of Defense business, I would say about half that business will kind of just be lost. There's kind of the way they move that freight. Some of it is just inventory movements, and then some of it's vendor-type freight. It's not like there's some of it will build a backlog that has to be moved eventually, and some of it won't. It'll just be kind of lost freight. We've moved a lot of those trucks onto a lot of expedited loads just to keep the trucks moving and keep the drivers getting paid and that kind of stuff. I think you'll see a little bit of a spike whenever the government opens back up. I don't know that it's not going to be a one-for-one makeup.

Speaker #7: Some of it is just inventory movements and and then some of it's vendor type freight . And so it's it's not like there's some of it will build a backlog that has to be , has to be moved eventually .

Speaker #7: And some of it won't . It'll just be kind of lost freight . We've moved a lot of those trucks , owned a lot of expedited loads .

Speaker #7: Just to keep the trucks moving and keep the drivers getting paid . And and that kind of stuff . And so , you know , I think you'll see a little bit of a spike whenever the , whenever the government opens back up .

Speaker #7: But , but I don't know that it's not going to be a one for one make up . It's , you know , as far as it flowing through the PNL , you know , I think the question is , does , you know , if it lasts the whole quarter , you know , it's going to be pretty impactful on expedited results if it's if it's , you know , if they get something done first week of November , which I guess that's next week at this point , you know , then then maybe it'll be a little maybe it'll be a little muted .

Paul Bunn: As far as it flowing through the P&L, I think the question is, does, you know, if it lasts the whole quarter, it's going to be pretty impactful on expedited results. If they get something done first week in November, which I guess that's next week at this point, then maybe it'll be a little, maybe it'll be a little muted. I hate that we've lost the month of October because a lot of these bases shut down around Thanksgiving. A lot of them shut down around Christmas. October is a month that we really, really run hard in that fleet. I mean, really, October 1 to about November 15 is when that fleet is really flowing. The government shutdown couldn't have come at a less opportune time. It's going to hit us. As David R. Parker said, it kind of stinks.

Speaker #7: I hate that we've lost a month of October because you know , a lot of these bases shut down around you know around Thanksgiving a lot of them shut down around Christmas .

Speaker #7: And so October is a month that that we really , really run hard in that fleet . I mean , really October 1st to about November 15th is when that that fleet is really flowing .

Speaker #7: And so the government shutdown couldn't have come at a less opportune time . I mean , it's going to hit us as David said , you know , it kind of stinks .

Speaker #7: And that's another one of my there's pain before the gain . But but that business will come back okay .

Paul Bunn: That's another one of my, there's pain before the gain. That business will come back.

Speaker #11: Appreciate the color there . And I guess turning back to capacity , you know , as Scott mentioned , you know , we're really not seeing much of an impact in the spot market .

[Analyst 1]: Okay. Appreciate the color there. Turning back to capacity, as Scott mentioned, we're really not seeing much of an impact in the spot market. Obviously, you've seen what we've written. I think that eventually comes back as we keep sort of rolling through the months here. My question is, what could accelerate this? Is there, we've heard some smatterings that some insurance companies have talked about taking some actions, and then some customers have talked about taking some actions in terms of exposure to carriers who might have non-domiciled drivers. How should we sort of frame that up and what are you hearing in the marketplace?

Speaker #11: But you know , I think , you know , obviously you've seen what we've written . I think that eventually comes back as we keep sort of rolling through the months here .

Speaker #11: But my question is what could accelerate this is there . You know , we've heard some smatterings , you know , some insurance companies .

Speaker #11: Have talked about taking some actions and then some customers have talked about taking some actions in terms of exposure to carriers who might have non-domiciled drivers .

Speaker #11: How should we sort of frame that up? And what are you hearing in the marketplace?

Speaker #6: I think everything you just said there , Jason , is in the process of happening . I think you're going to see insurance companies that are not going to ensure non-domiciled , CDL license .

David R. Parker: I think everything you just said there, Jason, is in the process of happening. I think you're going to see insurance companies that are not going to insure non-domiciled CDL license. I think that that will be happening. As Paul was saying, of course, California is leading it. We're going to hear next week or so what California is planning on doing about it. I think you got insurance companies that are in the process of saying, "We're not going to insure this." I guarantee you they're sitting around in their offices right now looking at their book of business, saying, "What do we have on the books?" They're going to have to get their hands around that. The process will be that there's going to be a bunch of folks that aren't going to have any insurance.

Speaker #6: I think that that will be happening . And as Paul is saying , of course , California is leading it . We're going to hear next week or so what California is planning on doing about it .

Speaker #6: But I think you got insurance companies that are in the process of saying , we're not going to insure this . I guarantee you they're sitting around in their offices right now looking at their book of business , saying , what do we have on the books ?

Speaker #6: And they're going to have to get their hands around that . But the process will be that there's going to be a bunch of folks that aren't going to have no insurance .

Speaker #6: So, I think that is one thing that is definitely going to be transpiring. But then there's just going to be pressure from the government on all the stuff that we didn't even talk about.

David R. Parker: I think that is one thing that is definitely going to be transpiring. It's just going to be pressure from the government on all the stuff that I talked. We didn't even talk about cabotage. I mean, that's unbelievable how much cheating is going on with cabotage. These people coming out of Mexico and going to Canada and going to the United States, they're supposed to go straight back, and they sit here for a month going back and forth. The government is under that. That's under Christie Nohm. They are over under that, and that is coming to the top that I think will bring more freight back to us, U.S. carriers. There's just a lot of stuff that whether it takes between now, if I was going to throw one, it's April. I don't know. Only because fourth quarter is virtually over with here.

Speaker #6: Cabin cabotage . I mean , that's unbelievable how much cheating is going on on cabotage . And these people coming out of Mexico and going to Canada and going to the United States , it's supposed to go straight back and they sit here for a month going back and forth .

Speaker #6: The government is under that. That's under Kristi Noem. They are over under that. And that is coming to the top that I think will bring more freight back to us.

Speaker #6: US carriers . There's just a lot of stuff that , whether it takes , whether it takes between . Now , if I was going to throw one , it's April .

Speaker #6: I don't know , I because fourth quarter is virtually over with . Here it is what it is . And and first quarter gets into into the weather .

David R. Parker: It is what it is. First quarter gets into the weather. With the government's heavy hand, of which I agree with, their heavy hand, you are going to see capacity leaving the market. Better than anything, no new capacity coming. I don't know if you saw this, Jason, but you know we look at a number that is a plus and minus of MC numbers on a weekly basis. To give you an idea, for the last few months, that number has been negative 50 to 100 less MC numbers a week, 50 to 100. Last week, it was over 400, 400 less. That was powerful. I look at another number that I keep an eye on.

Speaker #6: But with the government's heavy hand of which I agree with their heavy hand , you are going to see capacity leaving the market .

Speaker #6: But better than anything . No new capacity coming . I don't know if you saw this , Jason , but you know , we look at it , we look at a number that is a plus .

Speaker #6: And minus of MC numbers on a weekly basis . And to give you an idea for the last few months , that number has been negative 50 to 100 MC .

Speaker #6: Last MC numbers a week , 50 to 100 . Last week it was over 400 400 less . That was powerful . I look at another number that I keep an eye on .

Speaker #6: Look at total volume . A report that we look at that is taking all of the all the reports that are coming out on whether it's cast or truck stop this and and they accumulate them all and volume is down 17% .

David R. Parker: Look at total volume, a report that we look at that has taken all of the reports that are coming out on whether it's CAS or Truck Stop This, and they accumulate them all. Volume is down 17%, but rejections are up almost 2%. What is that saying? This is this week. Volume is down 17%, but rejections are up almost 2%. It's telling you something about capacity. That's the kind of stuff that we're

Speaker #6: But rejections are up almost 2% . What does that saying this is this week volume is down 17% . But rejections are up almost 2% .

Speaker #6: It's telling you something about capacity . And so that's that's the kind of stuff that we're looking at , you know , as we go forward .

Operator: Looking at, you know, as we go forward.

Speaker #11: Well , David , let's say you're right . And the recovery is in April with , you know , the start of spring shipping season because you finally got the volume back up .

Tripp Grant: David, let's say you're right, and the recovery is in April with, you know, the start of spring shipping season because you finally get the volume back. Bid season, you know, we're going to be well into that already, and you know, probably not at exceedingly favorable rates at this stage.

Speaker #11: Bid season , you know , we're going to be well into that already . And , you know , probably not at exceedingly favorable rates at this stage .

Speaker #8: Right .

Speaker #11: What what what's your ability to go back to the customers and say , hey , listen , you know , it's June , the market's , you know , the market's different right .

Operator: Right.

Tripp Grant: What's your ability to go back to the customers and say, "Hey, listen, you know, it's June, the market's different," right?

Speaker #11: Yeah .

Operator: Yeah. 100%. Not 99, 100%. I mean, I love my customers. Ain't nobody love my customers like I love my customers. At the same time, if I've not raised you in four years, if I cannot make an argument that says three months into a pathetic rate that I don't have the ability to be able to get a rate increase when the market allows me, then we have no relationship, and I don't want them in my portfolio. You will, but it won't be me. It will be the entire industry. As I look at that on the rates, Jason, that we talked about in Department of Defense, and you know, we got a margin compression on this, and we got to go through some difficult times that I think, I think it is, I'm happy with it.

Speaker #6: 100% not 99 100% . I mean I love my customers . Ain't nobody love my customers . Like I love my customers . But at the same time , if I've not raised you in four years , if I cannot make a argument that says three months into a pathetic rate , that I don't have the ability to be able to get a rate increase when the market allows me , then we have no relationship and I don't want them in my portfolio .

Speaker #6: And so that you will , but it won't be me . It will be the entire industry . So as I look at that on the rates , Jason , that that we talked about in DoD and , you know , we got it .

Speaker #6: Margin compression on this and we got to go through some difficult times that I think I , I think it is I , I'm happy with it .

Speaker #6: I'm very pleased with it because as I step back from this junk that we're having to go through and or the negatives or whatever words you want to use , and I look at how much positive demand opportunities , foreign investments , accelerated depreciation .

Operator: I'm very pleased with it because as I step back from this junk that we're having to go through, or the negatives or whatever words you want to use, and I look at how much positive demand opportunities, foreign investments, accelerated depreciation, as I look at rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, as I look at all this domestic investment that Trump is bringing, as I look at the Build Back America Beautiful or whatever they're calling the, whatever that bill's called, I mean, it is going to be, and with ISM being down below 50 for three years, with what Trump is doing on bringing back plants, I promise you, interest rates going down, it is going to feed the economy with capacity leaving. That's why I'm excited. A perfect storm is here.

Speaker #6: As I look at rate cuts from the Federal Reserve , as I look at all this domestic investment that Trump is bringing is I look at the build Back America Beautiful or whatever they're calling the whatever that Bill's called .

Speaker #6: I mean , it is going to be and with ism being down below 50 for three years with what Trump is doing on bringing back plants , I promise you , interest rates going down , it is going to feed the economy with capacity leaving .

Speaker #6: So that's why I'm excited . A perfect storm is .

Speaker #11: Coming . It and and listen , I don't have 50 years in trucking , but I have just over 30 . So it's it's definitely one of the more interesting times I've seen for sure .

Tripp Grant: I can certainly see it.

Operator: Yeah.

Tripp Grant: I don't have 50 years in trucking, but I have just over 30, so it's definitely one of the more interesting times I've seen for sure. I appreciate the time as always, and I tell everyone to stay safe out there.

Speaker #11: But listen , gentlemen , I appreciate the time as always . And tell everyone to stay safe out there .

Speaker #8: Yeah , thanks , Jason .

Operator: Yeah.

Paul Bunn: Thanks, Jason.

Speaker #10: And our next question comes from Reed . Say from Stephens . Please go ahead . Reed .

James Grant: Our next question comes from Reid Say from Stephens. Please go ahead, Reid.

Speaker #12: Hey guys . Thanks for taking the question . Given a lot of good color , but I wanted to come back and touch on some of this government business you mentioned , like the volume will come back once the government comes back .

[Analyst 1]: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. You've given a lot of good color, but I wanted to come back and touch on some of this government business. You mentioned like the volume will come back once the government comes back, but here in the fourth quarter, let's say maybe we get a shutdown here at the end of the month, could we potentially see a catch-up of these volumes in Q4, or how would you expect maybe the cadence following a return of these volumes?

Speaker #12: But here in the fourth quarter , let's say maybe we get a shutdown here at the end of the month . Could we potentially see a catch up of these volumes in for Q or how would you expect maybe the cadence following a return of these volumes ?

Speaker #7: Yeah , Reed here's what I'd say . That's a minute ago when I speak to you . It won't be a full catch up .

Paul Bunn: Yeah, Reid, here's what I'd say. A minute ago when I spoke to you, it won't be a full catch-up. It'd be a partial. There could be a partial catch-up. Part of what handcuffs the catch-up is, you know, these bases are going to shut down around Thanksgiving, and they're going to shut down around Christmas. Just the way the calendar is going to fall, it's going to hamper a full recovery. Some other things just around the nature of the freight. I mean, it's still moving. It won't be a full catch-up. You could have a partial catch-up if the government reopened sooner than later.

Speaker #7: It'd be a partial . There could be a partial catch up and part . Part of what ? What handcuffs ? The catch up is , you know , these bases are gonna .

Speaker #7: They're going to shut down around Thanksgiving , and they're going to shut down around Christmas . And so , you know , just the way the calendar is going to fall , it's going to hamper a full recovery .

Speaker #7: And just some other things just around the nature of the freight . I mean , it's still moving . It won't be a full catch up .

Speaker #7: You could have a partial catch up if the government reopened sooner than later .

Speaker #12: Got it , got it . And then it looks like during the quarter , costs were moving in the right direction . Can you talk about maybe some actions that you've taken on the cost side here in three ?

[Analyst 1]: Got it. Got it. It looks like during the quarter, costs were moving in the right direction. Can you talk about maybe some actions that you've taken on the cost side here in Q3 and maybe if there are any more to come in Q4 if we have demand continuing to be weak in the LTL or in certain parts of the business?

Speaker #12: Q and maybe if there are any more to come in ? Four Q if we have demand , continue to be weak and the LTL or in certain parts of the business .

Speaker #7: You know , we've continued to try to make sure our headcount matched our , you know , was matching our freight volumes and tried to make sure we weren't getting , you know , frivolous on overhead .

Paul Bunn: You know, we've continued to try to make sure our headcount matched our, you know, was matching our freight volumes, and tried to make sure we weren't getting, you know, frivolous on overhead. You know, we've really shut down any significant growth in overhead. We did that earlier in the year, maybe even the end of last year, knowing this market was continuing to drag out. You know, we saw, I would say we're happy with maintenance costs, some things we've done on those to really manage them down. I would say it's just more of blocking and tackling, Reid, and trying to make sure that, you know, we're battening down the hatches for the, we've been in this storm for 36 to 40 months now. You can't be getting out over your skis on cost.

Speaker #7: You know , we've really shut down any , any significant growth in overhead . We did that earlier in the year , maybe even the end of last year .

Speaker #7: Not knowing this, the market was continuing to drag out. You know, we saw, I would say we're happy with maintenance costs.

Speaker #7: Some things we've done on those in the to really manage them down . And so I would say it's just more of blocking and tackling .

Speaker #7: Reed and trying to make sure that , you know , we're battening down the hatches for the we've been in this storm for 36 to 40 months now .

Speaker #7: You you can't be getting it getting out over your skis on cost .

Speaker #8: Yeah yeah .

Tripp Grant: Yeah, I agree. You know, there were some callouts. I'll just add on to what Paul was saying. There were some callouts to some pretty hard cost-cutting decisions in the quarter for which we provided a table in there that kind of reconciled those. Those were difficult decisions, but I would also say that throughout the year, we've been very cost-conscious. Some of the headwinds that we saw probably earlier in the year, whether it's first quarter or second quarter, were equipment-related costs. You know, just as we grow certain of our Dedicated fleets and we start to expand geographies, it takes a while to begin to optimize your cost profile in those geographies and within those fleets. We're trying to find the sweet spot. We're trying to develop the amount of density needed to efficiently operate that equipment.

Speaker #4: I agree you know there were some call outs . I'll just add on to what Paul was saying . There were some call outs to some pretty hard cost cutting decisions in the quarter for which we provided a table in there .

Speaker #4: That kind of reconciled those . But . Those were difficult decisions . But I would also say that throughout the year , we've been very cost conscious , and some of the headwinds that we saw probably earlier in the year , whether it's first quarter or second quarter , were equipment related costs and , you know , just as we grow certain of our dedicated fleets and we start to expand geographies and it takes a while to begin to optimize your cost profile in those geographies .

Speaker #4: And within those fleets, we're trying to find the sweet spot. We're trying to develop the amount of density needed to efficiently operate that equipment.

Speaker #4: And there was some cost in the quarter . In Q3 related to some start up costs . I would say for shops and other new hires , shop salaries and things like that , that we think will make us more efficient in the long run .

Tripp Grant: There was some cost in the quarter in Q3 related to some startup costs, I would say, for shops and new hires, shop salaries, and things like that that we think will make us more efficient in the long run. We continue to invest in the things that are going to return the right capital to our shareholders. It's just clunky. I will say there was some clunkiness in the quarter. I think longer term, as we continue to grow that business, you're going to see some efficiencies from it.

Speaker #4: So we continue to invest in the things that are going to return . The right capital to our shareholders . It's just clunky and I will say there was some clunkiness in the quarter , but I think longer term , as we continue to grow , that business , you're going to see some efficiencies from it .

Speaker #12: Got it. Appreciate the color, guys.

[Analyst 1]: Got it. Appreciate the color, guys.

Speaker #8: Thanks , Reed .

Paul Bunn: Thanks, Reid.

Speaker #10: And our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners . Please go ahead Jeff .

James Grant: Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners. Please go ahead, Jeff.

Speaker #8: Hey .

Speaker #13: Guys . Just some quick kind of look ahead here . What do you expecting to hear from the other carriers at ETA . That might be a little different than what you were thinking a couple weeks ago .

David R. Parker: Hey, guys. Just some quick kind of look-aheads here. What are you expecting to hear from the other carriers at ATA that might be a little different than what you were thinking a couple of weeks ago?

Speaker #6: I think it's just going to be an add on . Jeff , of everything we've talked about today , I think you've got motor carriers that are mad .

Operator: I think it's just going to be an add-on jump of everything we've talked about today. I think you've got motor carriers that are mad. I think you've got motor carriers that are happy with what the government is doing. I think that's going to be the tone at ATA. The side note is going to be, "OEMs, what are we going to do about trucks?" I think that's going to be the two pressing issues, don't you, Paul?

Speaker #6: I think you got motor carriers that are happy with what the government is doing . And I think that I think that that's going to be the tone at ETA .

Speaker #6: I really do . Then the side note is going to be OEMs . What are we going to do about trucks ? I think that will be the I think that's going to be the two pressing issues .

Speaker #6: Don't you ? Paul ?

Speaker #7: Yeah , I think it's yeah , it's going to be government regulation . It's going to be how bad's inflation been over the last 36 to 42 months that you haven't been able to get in rates and up regulation trucks and , and inflation that you haven't been able to cover in rates .

Paul Bunn: Yeah, I think it's going to be government regulation. It's going to be how bad's inflation been over the last 36 to 42 months that you hadn't been able to get in rates? Regulation, trucks, and inflation that you hadn't been able to cover in rates. That'll be the three big talking points.

Speaker #7: That'll be the three big talking points okay .

Speaker #13: And then just one follow up question because I know a lot of questions were asked by Scott Group . The shares are about nine times earnings right now , give or take .

David R. Parker: Okay. Just one follow-up question because I know a lot of questions were asked by Scott Group. The shares are about nine times earnings right now, give or take. I know it frustrates you. It just is what it is. I know the balance sheet's in good shape, but what are you thinking in terms of share repurchase here? You don't want to get over your skis and buy them in a tough environment. On the other hand, the shares appear like a bit of a gift at these valuations for a buyback.

Speaker #13: I know it frustrates you . It just is what it is . I know the balance sheet is in good shape , but what are you thinking in terms of share repurchase here ?

Speaker #13: I mean , you don't want to get over your skis and buy them in a tough environment . On the other hand , you know , the shares appear like a bit of a gift that these valuations for a buyback .

Speaker #4: No , I agree with you . I think our shares are highly discounted . And I think there's a lot of potential value there .

Tripp Grant: No, I agree with you. I think our shares are highly discounted, and I think there's a lot of potential value there. To your point, the balance sheet is in good shape. Our debt today in terms of EBITDA leverage is just over two times. For a variety of reasons, we bought back a ton of stock. In the first half of the year, we had an earnout payment, and we front-loaded to avoid some tariffs on almost all of our equipment. I do think our mortgage or our debt potentially, just call it free cash flow if you will, maintenance CapEx and cash from ops, cash flow from operations will improve in the fourth quarter and will allow us opportunities. I don't want to commit.

Speaker #4: To your point , the balance sheet is in good shape . Our debt , you know , today in terms of EBITDA leverage is just over two times .

Speaker #4: We , you know , for a variety of reasons . We bought back a ton of stock in the first half of the year .

Speaker #4: We had an earn out payment and we front loaded to avoid some tariffs on almost all of our equipment . And so I do think our margin or our debt potentially just just call it free cash flow , if you will , maintenance CapEx and cash from ops , cash flow from operations will improve in the fourth quarter .

Speaker #4: And will allow us opportunities . And I don't want to commit . We do have some availability under our share repurchase program that was approved by the board , but I don't want to commit to say that we're going to buy back any of that .

Tripp Grant: We do have some availability under our share repurchase program that was approved by the board, but I don't want to commit to say that we're going to buy back any of that. We have a full range of options that we've exercised in the past, whether that's M&A or whether that's share repurchases, and continuation of dividends. We feel like our formula is working, and we're going to stick with that.

Speaker #4: But we have a full range of options that we've exercised in the past , whether that's M&A or whether that's share repurchases . And , you know , continuation of dividends .

Speaker #4: And we feel like our formula is working, and we're going to stick with that.

Speaker #13: All right, I appreciate your answer. And that's all I have. Thank you.

David R. Parker: All right, I appreciate your answer, and that's all I have. Thank you.

Speaker #8: Thanks, Jeff. Thanks, Jeff.

Paul Bunn: Thanks, Joe.

Tripp Grant: Thanks, Joe.

Speaker #10: At this time there are no further questions . We'll turn the call back over to Tripp for closing remarks .

James Grant: At this time, there are no further questions. We'll turn the call back over to Tripp for closing remarks.

Speaker #4: All right . Well , thank you , everybody , for joining us for the third quarter earnings call for Covenant Logistics . We look forward to talking to you next quarter .

Tripp Grant: Thank you, everybody, for joining us for the third quarter earnings call for Covenant Logistics Group Inc. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thank you very much.

Speaker #4: Thank you very much .

Speaker #10: This concludes today's conference call . Thank you for attending .

James Grant: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for attending.

[Unknown Speaker]: The host has ended this call. Goodbye.