Q3 2025 Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #1: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cooper-Standard third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in listen-only mode.

Operator: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. During the presentation, all participants will be in listen-only mode. Following company-prepared comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press Star, then 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press Star, then 2. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and the webcast will be available on the Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. website for replay later today. I would now like to turn the call over to Roger Hendriksen, Director of Investor Relations.

Speaker #1: Following company-prepared comments, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. At that time, if you have a question, you will need to press star, then one on your telephone keypad.

Speaker #1: To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and the webcast will be available on the Cooper-Standard website for replay later today.

Speaker #1: I would now like to turn the call over to Roger Hendriksen, Director of Investor Relations.

Speaker #2: Thanks, Danny, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you spending some time with us this morning. The members of our leadership team who will be speaking with you on the call this morning are Jeff Edwards, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jon Banas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Roger Hendriksen: Thanks, Danny, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you spending some time with us this morning. The members of our leadership team who will be speaking with you on the call this morning are Jeff Edwards, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Jon Banas, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I need to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. While they are made based on current factual information and certain assumptions and plans that management currently believes to be reasonable, these statements do involve risks and uncertainties. For more information on forward-looking statements, we ask that you refer to Slide 3 of this presentation and the company's statements included in periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

Speaker #2: Before we begin, I need to remind you that this presentation contains forward-looking statements. While they are made based on current factual information and certain assumptions and plans that management currently believes to be reasonable, these statements do involve risks and uncertainties.

Speaker #2: For more information on forward-looking statements, we ask that you refer to slide three of this presentation and the company's statements included in periodic filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker #2: This presentation also contains non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the presentation.

Roger Hendriksen: Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in the appendix to the presentation. With those formalities out of the way, I'll turn the call over to Jeff Edwards.

Speaker #2: So, with those formalities out of the way, I'll turn the call over to Jeff Edwards.

Speaker #3: Thanks, Roger, and good morning, everyone. We certainly appreciate the opportunity to review our third quarter results and provide an update on our business and the outlook going forward.

Jeff Edwards: Thanks, Roger, and good morning, everyone. We certainly appreciate the opportunity to review our third-quarter results and provide an update on our business and the outlook going forward. To begin on Slide 5, I'll highlight some of the key third-quarter data points that we believe are reflective of our continuing outstanding operational performance and our ongoing commitment to our core company values. In terms of operations and customer service, we're on track to have possibly one of the best years in our company's 65-year history. We ended the third quarter with 99% of our customer scorecards for quality and service being green. For new program launches, we also continue to deliver strong performance with 97% of those scorecards green. Our Plant Managers and our plant employees continue to deliver outstanding performance and value for our customers through their dedication and commitment to excellence. We're extremely proud of that.

Speaker #3: So, to begin on slide five, I'll highlight some of the key third quarter data points that we believe are reflective of our continuing outstanding operational performance.

Speaker #3: And our ongoing commitment to our core company values. In terms of operations and customer service, we're on track to have possibly one of the best years in our company's 65-year history.

Speaker #3: We ended the third quarter with 99% of our customer scorecards for quality and service being green. For new program launches, we also continue to deliver strong performance with 97% of those scorecards green.

Speaker #3: Our plant managers and our plant employees continue to deliver outstanding performance and value for our customers through their dedication and commitment to excellence. We're extremely proud of that.

Speaker #3: Also, in our plant operations, safety performance continues to be excellent. In fact, during the third quarter, we had a total incident rate of just 0.28 recordable incidents per 200,000 hours worked.

Jeff Edwards: Also, in our plant operations, safety performance continues to be excellent. In fact, during the third quarter, we had a total incident rate of just 0.28 recordable incidents per 200,000 hours worked. That's well below the world-class benchmark of 0.47. Importantly, 36 of our plants have maintained a perfect safety record with a total incident rate of zero for the first three quarters of the year. That's 60% of all of our production facilities achieving a perfect safety score and demonstrating that our ultimate goal of zero safety incidents is achievable. We're proud of our entire global team for their focus and achievement in this most important operating measure. In terms of cost optimization, we had another solid quarter with our manufacturing and purchasing teams delivering $18 million of savings through lean initiatives and other cost-saving programs.

Speaker #3: That's well below the world-class benchmark of 0.47. Importantly, 36 of our plants have maintained a perfect safety record with a total incident rate of zero for the first three quarters of the year.

Speaker #3: That's 60% of all of our production facilities achieving a perfect safety score. And demonstrating that our ultimate goal of zero safety incidents is achievable.

Speaker #3: We're proud of our entire global team for their focus and achievement in this most important operating measure. In terms of cost optimization, we had another solid quarter.

Speaker #3: With our manufacturing and purchasing teams delivering $18 million of savings through lean initiatives and other cost-saving programs. These cost reductions and operating efficiencies combined with revenue growth in the quarter allowed us to achieve a solid $140 basis point improvement in gross margin versus the third quarter of last year.

Jeff Edwards: These cost reductions and operating efficiencies, combined with revenue growth in the quarter, allowed us to achieve a solid 140 basis point improvement in gross margin versus the third quarter of last year. Despite some of the market headwinds that we've been seeing, we continue to drive profitable growth and margin expansion through the execution of our plans and strategies. Finally, we're continuing to leverage world-class service, technical capabilities, and our award-winning innovations to win new business. During the third quarter of 2025, we received $96 million in net new business awards, which are expected to drive profitable growth as they launch over the next few years. That brings our total net new business awards for the first nine months to nearly $229 million.

Speaker #3: So, despite some of the market headwinds, that we've been seeing, we continue to drive profitable growth and margin expansion through the execution of our plans and strategies.

Speaker #3: Finally, we're continuing to leverage world-class service, technical capabilities, and our award-winning innovations to win new business. During the third quarter of 2025, we received 96 million dollars in net new business awards which are expected to drive profitable growth as they launch over the next few years.

Speaker #3: That brings our total net new business awards for the first nine months to nearly 229 million dollars. I will provide some additional detail on this in a few minutes.

Jeff Edwards: I will provide some additional detail on this in a few minutes, but first, let me turn the call over to Jon to discuss the financial details of the quarter.

Speaker #3: But first, let me turn the call over to Jon to discuss the financial details of the quarter.

Speaker #4: Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the next few slides, I'll provide some details on our financial results for the quarter and discuss our cash flows, liquidity, and aspects of our balance sheet and capital structure.

Jon Banas: Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. In the next few slides, I'll provide some details on our financial results for the quarter and discuss our cash flows, liquidity, and aspects of our balance sheet and capital structure. On Slide 7, we show a summary of our results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025 with comparisons to the same periods last year. Third quarter 2025 sales were $695.5 million, an increase of 1.5% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The slight increase was driven primarily by positive foreign exchange and favorable volume and mix, partially offset by certain customer price adjustments. As Jeff mentioned, our third quarter 2025 gross margin improved 140 basis points compared to the prior year to 12.5% of sales.

Speaker #4: On slide seven, we show a summary of our results for the third quarter and first nine months of 2025, with comparisons to the same periods last year.

Speaker #4: Third quarter 2025 sales were $695.5 million, an increase of 1.5% compared to the third quarter of 2024. The slight increase was driven primarily by positive foreign exchange and favorable volume and mix, partially offset by certain customer price adjustments.

Speaker #4: As Jeff mentioned, our third quarter 2025 gross margin improved 140 basis points compared to the prior year. To 12.5% of sales. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was 53.3 million dollars, an increase of more than 15.6% when compared to the 46 million dollars we reported in the third quarter of last year.

Jon Banas: Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $53.3 million, an increase of more than 15.6% when compared to the $46 million we reported in the third quarter of last year. Importantly, we were able to drive further margin expansion of 100 basis points versus the same period a year ago, despite the modest revenue growth and market headwinds. On a U.S. GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $7.6 million in the third quarter compared to a net loss of $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusting for restructuring and other items from both periods, as well as the related tax impacts, adjusted net loss for the third quarter of 2025 was $4.4 million, or $0.24 per share, compared to an adjusted net loss of $12 million, or $0.68 per share in the third quarter of 2024.

Speaker #4: Importantly, we were able to drive further margin expansion of 100 basis points versus the same period a year ago despite the modest revenue growth and market headwinds.

Speaker #4: On a US GAAP basis, we reported a net loss of $7.6 million in the third quarter, compared to a net loss of $11.1 million in the third quarter of 2024.

Speaker #4: Adjusting for restructuring and other items from both periods, as well as the related tax impacts, adjusted net loss for the third quarter of 2025 was $4.4 million.

Speaker #4: Or $0.24 per share compared to an adjusted net loss of $12 million or $0.68 per share in the third quarter of 2024.

Speaker #4: Our capital expenditures in the third quarter of 2025 totaled 11.2 million dollars or 1.6% of sales. Similar to the prior year period. We continue to exercise discipline around capital investments, which our primarily focused on program launch readiness.

Jon Banas: Our capital expenditures in the third quarter of 2025 totaled $11.2 million, or 1.6% of sales, similar to the prior year period. We continue to exercise discipline around capital investments, which are primarily focused on program launch readiness in order to maximize our returns on invested capital. Moving on to the nine months. For the first nine months of 2025, our sales were essentially flat compared to the first nine months of 2024. Significantly, and despite flat revenue over the first three quarters, our gross profit margin increased by 170 basis points and our adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 230 basis points compared to the first nine months of last year. Moving to Slide 8. The charts on Slide 8 provide additional insights and quantification of the key factors impacting our results for the third quarter.

Speaker #4: In order to maximize our returns on invested capital. Moving on to the nine months. For the first nine months of 2025, our sales were essentially flat compared to the first nine months of 2024.

Speaker #4: But significantly, and despite flat revenue over the first three quarters, our gross profit margin increased by 170 basis points. And our adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 230 basis points compared to the first nine months of last year.

Speaker #4: Moving to slide eight. The charts on slide eight provide additional insights and quantification of the key factors impacting our results for the third quarter.

Speaker #4: For sales, favorable volume and mix, net of customer price adjustments, increased sales by approximately 2 million dollars compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Jon Banas: For sales, favorable volume and mix, net of customer price adjustments, increased sales by approximately $2 million compared to the third quarter of 2024. The impact of favorable foreign exchange was approximately $8 million. For adjusted EBITDA, lean initiatives in purchasing and manufacturing positively contributed $18 million year over year. In addition, we continue to realize benefits from our restructuring initiatives implemented in prior periods, amounting to $5 million in incremental savings in the third quarter compared to last year. Favorable foreign exchange was a tailwind of approximately $4 million in the quarter. Partially offsetting these improvements were $5 million of unfavorable volume and mix, including customer price adjustments and the impact of certain short-term production disruptions, $6 million in increased costs in wages and general inflation, and $6 million in higher SGA&E expense.

Speaker #4: The impact of favorable foreign exchange was approximately 8 million dollars. For adjusted EBITDA, lean initiatives and purchasing and manufacturing positively contributed 18 million dollars year over year.

Speaker #4: In addition, we continue to realize benefits from our restructuring initiatives implemented in prior periods, amounting to 5 million dollars in incremental savings in the third quarter compared to last year.

Speaker #4: Favorable foreign exchange was a tailwind of approximately 4 million dollars in the quarter. Partially offsetting these improvements were 5 million dollars of unfavorable volume and mix including customer price adjustments, and the impact of certain short-term production disruptions.

Speaker #4: $6 million in increased costs and wages, along with general inflation, and $6 million in higher SGA and E expenses. The increase in SGA and E expenses was primarily related to stock price appreciation adjustments for certain equity-based incentive awards, as our share price increased by approximately 72% during the third quarter.

Jon Banas: The increase in SGA&E expense was primarily related to stock price appreciation adjustments for certain equity-based incentive awards, as our share price increased by approximately 72% during the third quarter. With most of the price gain occurring later in the quarter, this increase and the related incremental expense were not contemplated in early August when we last reported earnings and updated our guidance. Moving to Slide 9. On Slide 9, we present the same type of year-over-year bridge analysis for the first nine months of the year. As mentioned, sales were essentially flat for the first nine months, with slight positive volume and mix being offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. Adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months increased by more than $48 million, or more than 38%, compared to the first nine months of 2024.

Speaker #4: With most of the price gain occurring later in the quarter, this increase, and the related incremental expense, were not contemplated in early August when we last reported earnings and updated our guidance.

Speaker #4: Moving to slide nine. On slide nine, we present the same type of year-over-year bridge analysis for the first nine months of the year. As mentioned, sales were essentially flat for the first nine months.

Speaker #4: With slight positive volume and mix being offset by unfavorable foreign exchange. Adjusted EBITDA in the first nine months increased by more than 48 million dollars.

Speaker #4: Or more than 38% compared to the first nine months of 2024. The improvement was driven primarily by 63 million dollars of manufacturing and purchasing efficiencies, 17 million dollars of restructuring savings, and 9 million dollars of favorable foreign exchange.

Jon Banas: The improvement was driven primarily by $63 million of manufacturing and purchasing efficiencies, $17 million of restructuring savings, and $9 million of favorable foreign exchange. These positive drivers were partially offset by $21 million of unfavorable volume, mix, and price adjustments, approximately $19 million of higher wages and general inflation, and $5 million in higher SGA&E expense, again, mainly due to the stock price appreciation discussed earlier. Overall, our SGA&E continues to benefit from previous restructuring and cost reduction initiatives and a disciplined management focus on controlling costs. We are pleased with our improving results in the first three quarters of 2025. As our focus on controlling costs, delivering exceptional operational performance, and the launch of new, more profitable programs are having the positive impacts we had planned, despite some of the market headwinds we began to see late in the third quarter. Moving to Slide 10.

Speaker #4: These positive drivers were partially offset by 20 million dollars of unfavorable volume, mix, and price adjustments. Approximately 19 million dollars of higher wages and general inflation.

Speaker #4: And 5 million in higher SGA and E expense. Again, mainly due to the stock price appreciation discussed earlier. Overall, our SGA and E continues to benefit from previous restructuring and cost reduction initiatives and a disciplined management focus on controlling costs.

Speaker #4: We are pleased with our improving results in the first three quarters of 2025. As our focus on controlling costs, delivering exceptional operational performance, and the launch of new, more profitable programs are having the positive impacts we had planned.

Speaker #4: Despite some of the market headwinds we began to see late in the third quarter, moving to slide 10. Looking at cash flow and liquidity, net cash provided by operating activities was approximately $39 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $28 million in the third quarter of 2024.

Jon Banas: Looking at cash flow and liquidity, net cash provided by operating activities was approximately $39 million in the third quarter of 2025, compared to $28 million in the third quarter of 2024. Capital spending, as mentioned earlier, was approximately $11 million in the third quarter of 2025, resulting in net free cash flow of approximately $27 million for the quarter, more than $11 million higher than the same period last year. We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of approximately $148 million. Coupled with $166 million of availability on our ABL facility, which remained undrawn, we had solid total liquidity of approximately $314 million as of September 30, 2025. We believe that is more than sufficient to support the continuing execution of our business plans and profitable growth objectives in today's environment.

Speaker #4: Capital spending, as mentioned earlier, was approximately 11 million dollars in the third quarter of 2025, resulting in net free cash flow of approximately 27 million dollars for the quarter.

Speaker #4: More than 11 million dollars higher than the same period last year. We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of approximately 148 million dollars.

Speaker #4: Coupled with $166 million of availability on our ABL facility, which remained undrawn, we had solid total liquidity of approximately $314 million as of September 30.

Speaker #4: We believe that is more than sufficient to support the continuing execution of our business plans and profitable growth objectives in today's environment. Following the solid results of the first three quarters, and even considering our revised outlook for production volume headwinds in Q4, we believe we remain on track to achieve positive free cash flow for the full year this year.

Jon Banas: Following the solid results of the first three quarters, and even considering our revised outlook for production volume headwinds in the fourth quarter, we believe we remain on track to achieve positive free cash flow for the full year this year. With respect to our capital structure, we are continuing to evaluate various options to strengthen our balance sheet and further improve our cash flow, and are carefully monitoring market conditions and developments in the credit markets. We are optimistic that as we continue to deliver improving results, we will be able to favorably refinance our first and third lien notes in the next several months. With that, let me turn it back over to Jeff.

Jeff Edwards: Okay, thanks, Jon. In this last portion of our call, I'd like to again comment on our high-level strategic imperatives and how these are positioning us for continuing profitable growth over the next several years. I'll wrap up with a few comments on our near-term outlook and our revised guidance for 2025. Please turn to Slide 12. Our strategies and operating plans are built around the four key strategic imperatives that you see outlined on Slide 12. By aligning the company around these common objectives, we've been able to drive significant improvements in virtually every aspect of our business. By the continuing execution of our plans and strategies, we're positioning the company to deliver continued profitable growth, further improvements in margins, and significantly improved returns on invested capital, as we discussed in last quarter's call.

Jeff Edwards: Moving to Slide 13, or as I name it, my favorite slide in today's presentation, one of the key improvements in our business has been the increase in our profit margins and overall financial strength of the business. Through our successful strategic execution, we've been able to increase our gross profit margins by more than 100 basis points each year over the past three years. That's despite reduced or flat production volumes in our two largest operating regions. Because of our focus on sustainable efficiency and fixed cost reductions, we will continue this trend of expanding margins into the future, even if production volumes remain flat. We would obviously expect to leverage any increase in production volume to drive further profitability and returns. In addition to our cost optimizations, we're benefiting from continuing launches of new programs and products with enhanced variable contribution margins.

Jeff Edwards: As the new programs ramp up, they'll be replacing the older programs that have lower margins on average. Our book business, launch cadence, and the timing of run-out business give us a high degree of confidence in our expanding margin outlook. Turning to Slide 14, our strategic execution is also enabling business wins that we believe will drive further profitable growth in coming years. I mentioned at the beginning of the call that in the first nine months of the year, we've received nearly $229 million in net new business awards. Of the total awards, 87% were related to the value-add innovations in product and technology that we've introduced into the market. We continue to believe that our strategy and capabilities around technology and innovation are a clear source of competitive advantage for us.

Turning to slide 14.

Our strategic execution is also enabling business wins that we believe will drive further profitable growth in coming years.

I mentioned at the beginning of the call that in the first 9 months of the year, we've received nearly 229 million in net, new business Awards.

Of the total Awards, 87% were related to the value add Innovations in product, and technology that we've introduced into the market.

Jeff Edwards: Similarly, 83% of the new awards were related to battery, electric, or hybrid vehicle platforms, which is an indication of how closely our product offerings and innovations are strategically aligned with the fastest-growing segments of the market. Finally, as we shared last quarter, our growth strategy includes expanding our relationships with the fast-growing Chinese OEMs that are beginning to expand their business globally. This opens up significant opportunity for us to expand both in terms of our customer base as well as geographically, where we believe the greatest growth will be occurring over the next several years. We are proud to be the supplier that our customers turn to for quality components, consistency of delivery, and collaboration on critical design and development of new technologies. We are also the supplier they're returning to to support their global expansion needs.

We continue to believe that our strategy and capabilities around technology and innovation are a clear source of competitive advantage for us.

Aligned with the fastest growing segments of the market.

Finally, as we shared last quarter, our growth strategy includes expanding our relationships with the fast growing Chinese oems that are beginning to expand their business globally.

This opens up significant opportunity for us to expand both in terms of our customer base.

As well as geographically where we believe the greatest growth will be occurring over the next several years.

We are proud to be the supplier that our customers turn to for Quality components, consistency of delivery and collaboration on critical design and development of new technologies.

Jeff Edwards: With these awards in hand and bright outlook for new business wins ahead, we are increasingly confident that we will be able to execute our plans and achieve our longer-term strategic financial targets for growth, margins, and return on capital. Turning to Slide 15. To conclude our prepared remarks this morning, let me focus in the nearer term and our outlook for the rest of 2025. Following a somewhat choppy third quarter in which certain of our customers around the world experienced short-term production disruptions from things like cyberattacks, lightning strikes, labor disruptions, just to name a few, we're now expecting a much more significant impact, unfortunately, in the fourth quarter due to the aluminum supply chain disruption that has hit our largest customer.

And now we're also the supplier of the returning to support their global expansion needs.

With these Awards in hand.

And bright outlook for new business wins ahead.

We are increasingly confident that we will be able to execute our plans and Achieve our longer term strategic Financial targets for growth.

Margins and return on Capital.

Turning to slide 15.

To conclude our prepared remarks this morning. Let me focus in the nearer term in our outlook for the rest of 2025.

Following a somewhat choppy third quarter in which certain of our customers around the world experienced short-term production disruptions from things like cyberattacks, lightning strikes, and labor disruptions, just to name a few, we're now expecting a much more significant impact. Unfortunately, in the fourth quarter,

Jeff Edwards: While we're encouraged by public commentary about plans to make up the lost production in future periods, there is no way we can mitigate the impact this will have on our fourth quarter. From a more positive perspective, the statements about making up lost production early next year support our view that the underlying demand for new light vehicles remains strong. It's consistent with our plans for strong profitable growth over time as markets normalize. We expect any reduction in production volumes related to this latest supply disruption to be temporary and will not have any lasting impact on our opportunities to achieve our longer-term strategic targets. As a company, we're maintaining our relentless focus on the aspects of our business that we can control: operational excellence, delivering world-class quality, service, and innovation to our customers, and continued near-flawless launches of new programs with enhanced contribution margins.

Due to the aluminum supply chain disruption, that's hit our largest customer.

While we're encouraged by public commentary about plans to make up the loss production and future periods. There is no way we can mitigate the impact. This will have on our fourth quarter.

From a more positive perspective, the statements about making up lost production early next year support our view that the underlying demand for new light Vehicles remain strong. It's consistent with our plans for strong profitable growth over time as markets normalize.

We expect any reduction in production volumes related to this latest supply disruption to be temporary and will not have any lasting impact on our opportunities to achieve our longer-term strategic targets.

Jeff Edwards: As we do this, we're confident that we will position the company to achieve our strategic financial targets going forward as production volumes normalize. Turning to Slide 16. Despite our strong results in the first three quarters of the year, which exceeded our original plans, we are reducing our full-year guidance ranges for sales and adjusted EBITDA to reflect the expected impact of various temporary reductions in customer production volume, including on some of our most important platforms. The waterfall chart on the right breaks out the various drivers of our revised outlook for 2025 full-year adjusted EBITDA versus 2024 actuals. Our success in delivering manufacturing efficiencies and other cost savings are still the biggest drivers to the positive. However, unfavorable volume and mix is now a significantly greater factor to the downside.

As a company, we're maintaining our Relentless focus on the aspects of our business that we can control. Operational excellence, delivering world-class quality service, and Innovation to our customers and continued near Flawless, launches of new programs with enhanced contribution margins. As we do this, we're confident that we will position the company to achieve our strategic Financial targets, going forward,

Forward, as production volumes normalize.

Turning to slide 16.

Despite our strong results in the first three quarters of the year, which exceeded our original plans, we are reducing our full-year guidance ranges for sales and adjusted EBITDA to reflect the expected impact of various temporary reductions in customer production volume.

Including on some of our most important platforms.

The waterfall chart on the right, breaks out the various drivers of our revised outlook for 2025 full year adjusted ebitda versus 2024 actuals.

Our success in delivering manufacturing, efficiencies and other cost savings are still, the biggest drivers to the positive.

Jeff Edwards: Importantly, even with challenging overall outlook in the fourth quarter, we still expect to deliver significantly higher adjusted EBITDA and positive free cash flow for the full year on sales that are flat to slightly lower than they were in 2024. We want to thank our customers, our suppliers, and all of our stakeholders for your continued confidence and support. We remain committed to working together and finishing the year as strongly as possible. This concludes our prepared remarks, so let's move into Q&A.

But unfavorable volume and mix is now a significantly greater factor to the downside.

Importantly, even with challenging overall Outlook in the fourth quarter, we still expect to deliver significantly higher adjusted, ebitda, and positive free cash flow for the full year on sales that are flat to slightly lower than they were in 2024.

We want to thank our customers, our suppliers, and all of our stakeholders for your continued confidence and support. We remain committed to working together and finishing the year as strongly as possible. This concludes our prepared remarks. So, let's move into Q&A.

Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star key followed by one on your telephone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before entering your request. To withdraw from the queue, press star two. One moment, please, as we assemble the queue for questions. All right, your first question comes from Michael Ward of Citi Research. Please go ahead.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

On your telephone, if you are using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before entering your request to withdraw from the queue. Press Start to 1 moment, please, as we assemble the queue for questions.

Hi, your first question comes from Mike Ward of Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Michael Ward: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Thank you. Good morning everyone.

Jeff Edwards: Sorry, Mike.

Michael Ward: Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Jon. Roger, I know you're in there someplace. Good morning. Jeff, if we look out for Q4, it's unfortunate the Ford thing happened, but it sounds like they're trying to get it accelerated as fast as they can. It sounds like they're going to try to make it up pretty early in the first half. It also sounds like they're going to add a third shift to Dearborn and line speed. When you kind of balance it out, it's really just postponing it into first half 2026. Is that how you're looking at it? Can we look at first half of 2026 where some of the things actually start to accelerate for you? Is that the way you're thinking about it?

um, sorry Mike, I wonder if we

Um, Roger I know you're in there someplace. Good morning. Um,

Jeff, if we look out for Q4, uh, you know, it's unfortunate the fourth thing happened, but it sounds like they're trying to get an accelerated as fast as they can. And then it sounds like they're going to try to make it up pretty early in the first half.

Jeff Edwards: That's exactly how I'm thinking about it. I think while the end of 2025 isn't quite what we had forecasted because of the event, we're preparing our business plans for 2026, 2027, and 2028. Certainly, there's an impact positively to what's going on in 2026. It's a short-term issue, as I said in my prepared remarks, and I have no doubt that the first half of 2026 will reflect improved results beyond what we originally had planned.

Um and it it also sounds like they're going to add a third shift to Dearborn and line speed. So when you kind of balance it out, it's really just postponing it into first half 26, is that how you're looking at it? And so can we look at first half of 26, where some of the things actually start to accelerate for you? Is that the way you're thinking about it,

Michael Ward: When we look across the different vehicles you supply components to, if you had to pick one where they're increasing the line rate, would the Ford F-150 be the one? Is it your highest content vehicle?

That's exactly how I'm thinking about it. I, I think, you know, while the end of 25 isn't quite we, what we had forecasted because of the, the event. Uh, we're preparing our business plans for 26/27 and 28 and and certainly, uh, there's an an impact, positively to to what's going on in 26. So yeah, it's a short term issue. As I said, in my prepared remarks and and I have no doubt that uh that the first half of 26 will reflect improved results uh beyond what we originally had planned.

You know, when we look across the different Vehicles, you supply components to. If you had to pick 1 where they're increasing, the line rate with the F-150 B to 1, is it your highest content vehicle.

Jeff Edwards: Yeah, my short answer would be yes.

Yeah, my short answer would be yes.

Michael Ward: Jon, I wonder if you can walk through the gives and takes on the cash flow, because it's a pretty strong cash flow statement you made for fourth Q. You have to pay the interest, right, that was accrued in three Qs? You have the six-month interest payment. Is that correct?

John John, I wonder if you can walk through the gives and takes on the

Cash flow, because it's a pretty strong cash flow statement you made for Q4. Um.

You have to pay the interest, right? That was accrued in Q3. So the 6-month interest payment is that correct?

Kirk Ludtke: That's correct. Mid-December is the next coupon due on the first and third-line notes.

Michael Ward: That's about $30 million?

Uh, that's correct. And mid-December, is the, uh, the next coupon due on the first and thirdly notes?

And that's about 30 million.

Kirk Ludtke: Actually, closer to 55.

Michael Ward: $55 million. Okay. Okay. You have working capital. It sounds like working capital should be a strong positive.

And uh, actually closer to 55.

5 555.99.

Okay. Okay. Okay. And then you have, um,

Working capital. So, it sounds like working capital should be a strong positive.

Jeff Edwards: Yeah, it needs to be.

Michael Ward: Yeah. Right.

Kirk Ludtke: To get the positive, we need to generate about $30 million-plus of free cash flow in Q4. You're right. The big benefit that we see, as we do every Q4, is an improvement in working capital, unwinding that from an accounts receivable perspective, and reducing inventory levels as production winds down towards the end of the year. Both of those obviously have a positive cash benefit. We're spending less, obviously, in the lighter months of November and into December as well. That preserves some cash in the balance sheet as well. All that combined will benefit and more than outweigh the $55 million in coupon payment that's due mid-December.

Yeah, it it it needs to be micro. Yeah. Right. You know, the the to get the positive we need to generate about 30 million plus of free cash flow in in Q4. So, you're right the big benefit that we see, um, as we do, every Q4 is, um, is an improvements in working capital unwinding that from a accounts receivable, uh, perspective and, uh, reducing inventory levels as production, you know, winds down towards the end of the year. Both of those obviously have a positive uh, cash benefit.

And um and we're we're spending less obviously in in the the lighter months of November and into December as well. So that preserves some cash in the balance sheet as well. All that combined, uh, will will benefit and, uh, more than outweigh the 55 million in, in coupon payment, that's due mid December.

Michael Ward: Super. The Ford F-150 delays doesn't disrupt the working capital that much? I guess because you had a bandwagon.

Super, and the, the F-150 delays doesn't disrupt the working capital that much.

Kirk Ludtke: The timing will matter about when the production comes out. Because if you think about the timing of average days receivable, things that don't get produced in October would impact the total quarterly cash flows. If it's later in November or December that it's not being produced, then that impacts the subsequent quarter's cash flow timing.

I guess cuz you had Advanced 1.

You know, the uh, the timing will will matter about, uh, when the, the production comes out. Uh, because if, if you think about the timing of average days receivable things that, um, don't get produced in, in October would impact the, the, the total quarterly cash flows.

Michael Ward: Okay. That's great news. Thanks, Jon.

Uh, but if it's uh, later in November or December that it, that's not being produced. Then that impacts the uh the subsequent quarters, uh, cash flow timing.

See. Well, that's great news. Thanks, John.

Kirk Ludtke: You're welcome.

You're welcome.

Operator: Your next question comes from Nathan Jones of Stifel. Please go ahead.

Nathan Jones: Good morning, everyone.

Your next question comes from Nathan Jones of stifel. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone.

Michael Ward: Good morning, Nathan.

Nathan Jones: I'll start on some of the net new business wins. Probably the year-to-date ones more than just focusing on the Q3 ones, and how that impacts the path to the 2030 targets that you laid out last quarter. What I'm looking for is some more commentary on the linearity of the path from 2025 to 2030. Should we expect the growth and margin expansion to be fairly linear between 2025 and 2030? Is it more backloaded? I think some of these Chinese OEM contracts will ramp up faster than maybe some of the Western ones. Just any commentary you can give us on the linearity you're looking at for that, please.

Morning Nathan. I guess, I guess I'll start on some of the net new business wins um and and probably as it I guess the year to date ones more than just the focusing on the 3Q ones and how that impacts uh the path to the 2030 targets that you laid out uh last quarter.

Jeff Edwards: Yeah, Nathan, this is Jeff. I will tell you that we've been at this, booking new business at these higher margins now for a couple of years plus, probably. If you're going to take the line from today to 2030, I think it's pretty linear. Certainly, you're also correct that the Chinese launches are coming to market faster than most. Even with that taken into consideration, I would tell you we're very happy with what we're seeing in margin growth. We showed you a little bit of that today, the historical trend line there, and even a glimpse into what we already know with 2026. If you drew the line from 2026 to 2030, you'd keep going on a similar trajectory.

What I'm looking for is some more commentary on the linearity, um, of the path from 2025 to 2030. Should we expect the growth and margin expansion to be fairly linear between 2025 and 2030? Is it more back loaded? I mean, I think some of these uh, Chinese, uh, OEM contracts will ramp up faster than maybe some of the western ones. Just any commentary you can give us on the linearity. You're looking at for that please.

So yeah, if you're going to take the the line from from today to 2030, I think it's a it's pretty linear. Uh, certainly you're also correct that the Chinese

um, launches are are coming to Market faster than than most. Uh, but even with that, uh, taken into consideration I I would tell you, we're, we're

Very happy with, uh, what we're seeing in margin.

Growth. Uh we showed you a little bit of that today. The historical uh trend line there, and even a glimpse into to what we already know with 2026. So if you drew the line from 26 to 30, you'd keep going on a similar trajectory.

Nathan Jones: I guess to follow up to that. Obviously, these platforms don't start ramping up out in 2030. There are net new business wins that you need to get over the next couple of years, at least to get to those 2030 targets. What kind of net new business wins should we be looking for, say, in 2026, 2027, and 2028 to check that the company is still on target to get to those 2030 goals?

I guess to follow up.

Ramping up at in 2030. So there are net new business wins that you need to get over the next couple years.

Uh, at least to get to those 2030 targets, what kind of net new business wins should we be looking for, say, 2026, 2027, and 2028 to check that the company is still on target to get to those 2030 goals?

Jeff Edwards: I think similar to what we track this year. It's kind of how we have to do it, right? You got to replace what's building out, and you got to win the new stuff that's coming. If there's new programs or conquest opportunities on top of that, historically, it's been in that same range that you see happening this year. We've had some years that were a little better, some years maybe a little bit under it, but I think that's a pretty good number going forward as well.

I think it's similar to what we track this year. It's kind of how we have to do it, right? You got to replace.

What uh what's building out and you got to win the new stuff that's coming and then if there's new programs or Conquest opportunities on on top of that. So, um, it's historically, it's been it's been in that uh, that same range that you see happening this year, we've had some years that were a little better, some years, maybe a little bit under it, but I think that's a pretty good number going forward as well.

Nathan Jones: Maybe a follow-up on the balance sheet. We still have about $4.2 million, a little over 4 times of leverage today. I think you guys have targeted getting that down closer to 2 times by the end of 2027. Do you think you're still on target to get to there? Does any of this disruption change that at all, or I still think that you're on target to get to that kind of leverage by then? Thanks.

Jeff Edwards: Yeah, this is Jeff. We're still on target to get there. As we just talked, I think '26 is actually going to be better than we originally had planned, not only because of what we discussed a few minutes ago with the volumes being made up from some of the fourth-quarter disruption, but I also tend to believe that we're going to see increases in overall volumes in some of our key regions. We don't have that yet in our forecast, but based on the leading indicators and certainly based on the amount of new models that are being invested in and coming through the system related to hybrid and electric vehicles, we're pretty excited about the businesses that we've been winning and the overall impact we think that'll have on the next several years related to volume.

And then maybe a follow up on the balance sheet. Um, we still had about 4.2 a little over 4 uh, times of Leverage today. Uh, I think you guys have targeted getting that down closer to 2 times in by the end of 2027. Do you think you're still on target to get to their uh, does you know any of this disruption change that at all or uh, still think that you're on target to get to that kind of Leverage by then? Thanks.

This is Jeff, uh, we're still on target to to get there. Uh, as we just talked, I think 26 is actually going to be better than we originally had planned. Not only because of what we what we discussed a few minutes ago with the the volumes being made up from some of the fourth quarter disruption. Uh but I also tend to believe that we're going to see uh increases in overall uh volumes and some of our key regions. Um so we don't have that yet in our forecast but based on

The leading indicators.

And in certainly based on the amount of new models that are being invested in and coming through, the system related to hybrid and electric vehicles, we were pretty, uh, excited about the businesses that we've been winning and the overall impact. We think that'll have on the next several years, uh, related to volume.

Nathan Jones: Great. Thanks very much for taking my questions.

Jeff Edwards: You're welcome.

Great. Thanks very much for taking my questions.

Michael Ward: Thanks, Nathan.

You're welcome. Thanks, Nathan.

Operator: Your next question comes from Kirk Ludtke of Imperial Capital. Please go ahead.

The next question comes from Kirk Idki of Imperial.

Capital.

Kirk Ludtke: Hello, Jeff, Jon, Roger. Appreciate the call.

Michael Ward: Good morning.

Kirk Ludtke: Hey, Kirk. On slide 15, did any of these items impact the third quarter?

Hello. Jeff. John Roger appreciate the call. Um good morning.

On Slide.

15. Uh, did any of these items, um, impact the third quarter?

Michael Ward: Hey, Kirk. It's Jon. When you think about some of the non-aluminum issues, the answer would be yes. Obviously, when you're thinking about the cybersecurity incident at one of our customers, as well as some of the natural disaster weather-induced things, they did impact September and did put a little bit of a drain otherwise on Q3.

Hey Kirk, it's it's John. Um, when you when you think about some of the, um, the non-aluminum issues, uh, the answer would be. Yes, obviously the uh, anything is about the the cyber security incident at 1 of our customers, as well. As some of the natural disaster, weather induced things, they did impact, uh, you know, September and uh and and and did put a little bit of a drain otherwise on Q3

Kirk Ludtke: Okay. Was it meaningful? Can you quantify it, or is it kind of good?

Okay, is there, is it was it meaningful? Can you quantify it or

Michael Ward: You see it impacted in the lower volume and mix that we would have had otherwise. Certainly not anywhere near as significant as the Q4 impact of the $25 million that you see on the bridge slide. We were able to essentially manage through that. You need to think of the lost revenue. It's a big portion of the lower contribution at $53 million of EBITDA. Otherwise, we would have been a couple of million higher than that.

To kind of uh, you you see it impacted in the in the lower volume and mix that we would have had otherwise um certainly not anywhere near as significant as the the Q4 uh impact of the 25 million that you see on the the bridge slide.

Kirk Ludtke: Got it. I know we've talked about number one, but are number two and three, do you expect the production lost from number two and number three to be recovered in the first half of 2026?

Uh, so we were able to, to essentially manage through that but uh, you need to think of um, you know, the the Lost Revenue. You know, it's a, a big portion of uh the lower contribution at 53 million of IBA. Otherwise we would have been um, a couple million higher than that.

got it is, is the are the I know we've talked about number 1, but our number 2 and 3, do you expect

The production loss from number 2 and number 3, to be recovered. In the first half of

Michael Ward: We haven't heard directly on that from those number one, number two, and number three customers. If it's any indication, I think that they'll be competing for share and should do well as far as their production ramps.

Kirk Ludtke: Okay. Thank you. On slide 14, the new business, not new business slide, that's very helpful to break that out. Can you apportion that 83% between just battery and hybrid?

Uh haven't uh heard directly on that um uh from from those number 1 and number or sorry. Number 2 and number 3 customers. But um if it's any indication, uh I think that they'll be competing for share and and should do well as far as their their production ramps.

Thank you. And, and then on, um, on slide 14, the new business, not new business slide. That's, you know, very helpful to break that out. And, um, can you a portion that 83% between, uh, just battery and hybrid?

Michael Ward: We do have that breakdown, Kirk. I'm going to have to get back to you on what the current business wins are, broken out by hybrid and the true battery electric. As we indicated, the majority of the total is, in fact, electrified, one of those platforms or another compared to the ICE-plate platforms. We'll get you that in short order.

Kirk Ludtke: Got it. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

We we do have that breakdown uh Kirk. Um I'm going to have to uh to get back to you on on what that the current business wins are uh Broken Out by by hybrid and and uh and the true battery electric. Uh but as we've as we indicated the majority of the total is, in fact uh electric electrified 1, 1 of those platforms or another compared to the ice light platforms. But we'll we'll get you that um, in in short order.

Got it. I appreciate it. Thank you very much.

Operator: As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one. It appears there are no more questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Roger Hendriksen.

As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press *1.

It appears there are no more questions. I would now like to turn the call back over to Roger Hendrickson.

Michael Ward: Okay, everybody. Thanks for your engagement this morning. We've appreciated your questions. If you do have additional questions that weren't addressed on the call this morning, please feel free to reach out to me. If necessary, we can arrange for future discussions with the management team. Thanks again for joining the call. This will conclude today's session. Thank you.

Okay everybody, thanks for your engagement this morning. We appreciate your questions. If you do have additional questions, that weren't addressed on the call this morning, please feel free to reach out to me. And, uh, if necessary we can arrange for future discussions,

With the management team.

Thanks again for joining the call. Uh this will conclude today's session. Thank you.

Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect