Q3 2025 First Capital Real Estate Investment Trust Earnings Call
Speaker #3: Good day , everyone , and thank you for joining for today's First Capital rights . Q3 2025 results , webcast and conference call .
Speaker #3: As a reminder , all phone participants have been placed in a listen only mode to reduce background noise . And later you will have the opportunity to ask questions using the star and one on your telephone keypad to signal us .
Speaker #3: Also, a reminder that today's session is being recorded, and it is my pleasure to turn the floor over for opening remarks and introductions to Mr. Neil Downey.
Speaker #3: Please go ahead, sir.
Speaker #4: Thank you Jim , and good afternoon , everyone . In discussing our financial and operating performance and in responding to your questions during today's call , we may make forward looking statements .
Speaker #4: These statements are based on our current estimates and assumptions, many of which are beyond our control and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements.
Speaker #4: A summary of these underlying assumptions , risks and uncertainties is contained in our securities filings , including our Q3 , MDA . Our MDA for the year ended December 31st , 2024 and our current AIF , which are available on Kdr+ and our website .
Speaker #4: These forward looking statements are made as of today's date and except as required by securities law , we undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any such statements .
Speaker #4: During today's call , we will also be referencing certain non IFRS financial measures . These do not have standardized meanings prescribed by IFRS and should not be construed as alternatives to net income or cash flow from operating activities determined in accordance with IFRS .
Speaker #4: Management provides these as a complement to IFRS measures and to aid in assessing the REIT's performance . These non IFRS measures are further defined and discussed in our MDA , which should be read in conjunction with this conference call .
Speaker #4: And with that , I will now turn the call to Adam . Okay .
Speaker #5: Thank you very much , Neal . Good afternoon , everyone , and thank you for joining us today for our Q3 conference call .
Speaker #5: We're very pleased to deliver another strong quarter of operating and financial results . It has been a great start thus far in 2025 for FCR .
Speaker #5: In the third quarter , same property , cash NOI grew by a healthy 6.4% . This excludes lease termination fees and bad debt expense .
Speaker #5: In round numbers . A little over 2% of the NOI growth was from increased occupancy and new tenants paying cash rent . At one blue reached all other factors which are primarily higher rents across the balance of the portfolio contributed a little over 4% of same property NOI growth on a year to date basis .
Speaker #5: Same property cash NOI excluding lease termination fees and bad debt expense has increased by 6% . This is a very healthy growth rate for our business .
Speaker #5: And as you've heard from Neil on prior calls , it has exceeded the expectations we had at the beginning of the year . The primary driver of this outperformance has been better than expected .
Speaker #5: Leasing with demand continuing to exceed supply for FCR type retail space . We expect our properties will continue to perform well . Following a record high occupancy level of 97.2% in Q2 , occupancy remained solid at 97.1% in the third quarter .
Speaker #5: Our average in-place net rental rate in Q3 stood at just over $24.50 per square foot , which is an all time high . During Q3 .
Speaker #5: We renewed approximately 550,000ft² across 146 spaces . Net rental rates in year one of the renewal terms averaged $27.41 per square foot , representing a year one renewal rent increase of over 13% .
Speaker #5: Approximately three quarters of our renewed leases in the third quarter included contractual rent escalations throughout the renewal terms . This resulted in a renewal lift of over 18% .
Speaker #5: When comparing net rents in the last year of the expiring terms to the average net rents during the renewal terms . In addition to renewal , leasing , we also completed approximately 150,000ft² of new leasing at SCR share across 55 spaces .
Speaker #5: Leasing continues to be very strong . We owned great assets and our leasing teams deep understanding of the strong fundamentals for our product type , which I discussed in detail last quarter , positions them well to capitalize on countless opportunities for rent growth .
Speaker #5: We continue to have confidence that these market dynamics provide a very long runway for accelerated and sustained rent growth for our portfolio . We're now just over halfway through our three year strategic plan that we presented to our investors .
Speaker #5: At the beginning of last year . At its heart , the plan is focused on delivering on three primary investor objectives stability and consistent growth in FFO per unit , growth in Nav per unit , and absolutely stable , reliable monthly cash distributions to our investors and growth in those distributions over time .
Speaker #5: The business continues to perform exceptionally well , so we remain on track to achieve the operating FFO per unit growth and debt to EBITDA metrics that are the core premise of our three year plan .
Speaker #5: Through the first 21 months of the plan , our operating FFO per unit Kager , excluding several positive but non-recurring items , is approximately 5% .
Speaker #5: We're tracking ahead on ofo , our debt to EBITDA has improved to the low nines and is on track to improve further throughout 2026 .
Speaker #5: We're very pleased with our results to date and with that , I will now pass things over to Neil to expand on them .
Speaker #4: Thanks , Adam . Consistent with our usual practice , we also have a slide deck available on our website at . And in my remarks , I'll make a number of references to that presentation .
Speaker #4: So let's start with slide six . SCR generated operating FFO of approximately $72 million during the third quarter . This compared to $73 million in Q2 2025 , and it was down from $77 million in the third quarter of 2024 .
Speaker #4: The prior year results were elevated by the recognition of an $11 million density bonus , which was included in interest and other income on a per unit basis .
Speaker #4: Q3 2025 ofo was $0.33 . This was down very slightly from Q2 , and it was 7% lower than the $0.36 earned in the third quarter of 2024 .
Speaker #4: Excluding the 2024 density bonus income of 5.3 cents per unit , the FFO growth rate was 9% during the quarter . On a per unit basis .
Speaker #4: So once again , we characterized the Q3 results as being very strong with same property NOI growth as the key driver . Now , turning to net operating income , specifically same property NOI excluding bad debt expense and lease termination fees , was $111 million in Q3 .
Speaker #4: This represents 95% of total NOI . The year over year growth was 6.4% , or $6.7 million , relative to approximately $105 million in Q3 2020 .
Speaker #4: For results for the quarter also included $900,000 of lease termination income . We currently expect upwards of $1 million of additional lease term termination income in the fourth quarter of this year .
Speaker #4: On a year over year basis , the No.I loss from dispositions was approximately $1.6 million . This relates to property sales totaling $174 million from Q4 of last year through to the end of the third quarter of this year , and finally , within other non same property , NOI , there's a $1.3 million year over year decrease , $1.2 million of this amount relates to lower straight line rent further down the FFO statement .
Speaker #4: Interest and other income of $5.4 million was $2.5 million lower year over year. This is due to lower interest income on cash balances, and it's really a function of timing in the prior period. Fxr carried more than $400 million in cash in the early part of the third quarter of 2024.
Speaker #4: This was in preparation for funding a $300 million debt maturity. Moving on to general and administrative expenses, which were $10.2 million, this was a 4% decline year over year.
Speaker #4: We've carried a handful of vacant positions this year, and we've been very focused on containing discretionary expenses. Turning to slide nine.
Speaker #4: It summarizes the nine month results . And here we generated same property NOI growth of 6% excluding lease termination fees and bad debt expense .
Speaker #4: We expect the finish to the year, and as such, we believe Fxr can deliver 2025 same property NOI growth of at least 5%, which is ahead of prior expectations.
Speaker #4: Slide eight and nine cover key operating metrics, most of which Adam has already touched upon. And really, the theme remains quite consistent through the third quarter with continued and broad strength across our key occupancy, leasing velocity, leasing spreads, and rental rate metrics.
Speaker #4: Slides ten and 11 look at various distribution payout ratio metrics during Q3 and on a year to date basis . Fcrs FFO and AFFO payout ratios are running in the high 60% range , and the mid 80% range , respectively .
Speaker #4: Advancing to slide 12 . The REIT September 30th net asset value per unit was $22 and $0.29 . This is an increase of $0.09 from midyear , and it's a year over year increase of $0.37 , or about 2% from $21.92 at September 30th , 2020 .
Speaker #4: For the NAV change during the quarter, there was a very small net fair value increase of $1 million. Now, for a bit more context, beneath the surface of this net number, Fxr recorded total fair value increases of $68 million related to higher NOI and cash flow assumptions.
Speaker #4: These principally related to our core multi-tenant grocery-anchored shopping center portfolio. There was also a fair value increase of approximately $8 million in the quarter.
Speaker #4: Related to the mark to sale price of our Anjou development site , which was sold during the quarter , and one small other asset .
Speaker #4: These fair value increases were largely offset by $75 million of fair value losses. And really, behind the losses were two themes.
Speaker #4: These included lower valuations for residential development properties in the Greater Toronto Area and lower values for certain operating multi-res properties, where market rental rates continue to be a bit soft.
Speaker #4: Turning to capital investments as outlined on slide 13 , in the third quarter , $57 million of capital was invested into the business , bringing the nine month to date number to $160 million .
Speaker #4: Q3 capital investments included $43 million of development-related expenditures and $14 million of leasing costs and CapEx into the operating portfolio. The most significant development expenditures during the quarter.
Speaker #4: Related to our Young and Roselawn development, the Humber Town Shopping Centre redevelopment, where phases two and three are advancing nicely, and our 1071 King project.
Speaker #4: It was a fairly quiet quarter on the financing front. As summarized by slide 14 on July 31st, we repaid the maturing Series S debenture, which had a principal amount of $300 million and an effective interest rate of 4.2%.
Speaker #4: The cash resources for this repayment had been raised in mid June through the issuance of a $300 million series E debenture . We and our partner also financed the Whitby property with a new five year , $38 million mortgage .
Speaker #4: Having an effective rate of 4.7%, this financing provided cash to First Capital of $19 million. Slides 15 through 17 summarize some of the key credit metrics, the rates, and the debt maturity profile.
Speaker #4: FXR is in a strong financial position. The business ended Q3 with more than $650 million of liquidity in the form of cash and availability on the three revolvers.
Speaker #4: The unencumbered asset pool had a total value of $6.4 billion, equating to nearly 70% of total assets, and the secured debt to total asset ratio was a low 16%.
Speaker #4: Fxr has only one debt instrument maturing in Q4, which is its $11 million share of a mortgage on Amberly Shopping Center, located in Pickering.
Speaker #4: The maturing debt has an interest rate of 6.2%, and this Friday we will be financing the property with a new $30 million seven-year mortgage, of which Fxr's share is 50%.
Speaker #4: The interest rate roll down will be approximately 200 basis points, and even though there will be only a small savings in our total interest expense, Fxr will generate $4 million in cash proceeds from the Up financing.
Speaker #4: Now , before wrapping up my prepared remarks today , I'll make a few comments related to the upcoming special meeting of unitholders . The meeting relates to a planned internal reorganization that will simplify First Capital's structure during the quarter , we recorded approximately $2 million of restructuring and advisory costs , and in the fourth quarter , we currently expect to incur roughly $3 million of additional costs related to the planned internal reorganization .
Speaker #4: These costs have, and will be, grouped with other gains, losses, and expenses; as such, they are excluded from operating FFO.
Speaker #4: In terms of timeline , on October 1st , the board of Trustees unanimously approved the proposed reorganization last week . On October 27th , we announced the special meeting date , which is Monday , November 24th , and the meeting materials were also mailed to unitholders last week , with those on record as of October 20th being entitled to vote .
Speaker #4: This is a reorganization that features the tax team and advisors who have been working on for many months. It will be completed by way of a plan of arrangement under the Business Corporations Act.
Speaker #4: Ontario , with an effective date of November 30th . So what does this all mean ? Well , in layman's terms , the effect of the arrangement will be to flatten and simplify .
Speaker #4: First Capital's organizational structure . The reorganization will be accomplished through a series of steps that ultimately see the elimination of First Capital Realty , Inc. as the REIT's wholly owned subsidiary that owns , directly and indirectly , all of the Fxr property portfolio .
Speaker #4: First Capital has received an advanced income tax ruling from the Canada Revenue Agency in connection with the steps of the arrangement. The arrangement will not result in a change to FCR's overall strategy.
Speaker #4: Portfolio or operations , and there's no change to Fcrs at standing units . They continue to trade on the TSX . Same ticker symbol , same Cusip number , current Fxr unit holders continue to own the same number of units they held before the arrangement , and there will be no direct tax consequences at the time of the reorg .
Speaker #4: Having said this , there are several key benefits from the arrangement , including number one simplification , the arrangement is expected to simplify First Capital's operating structure and reduce the significant complexity of legal and accounting and reporting , as well as income tax compliance inherent in the existing structure .
Speaker #4: Part of the simplification will include the alignment of tax years across the REIT's subsidiary LPs trusts and corporations . Secondly , tax efficiency host reorg FCR will become a full , fully flow through entity holding its interest in the underlying trust and LPs directly .
Speaker #4: This will allow income to pass to unit holders in a tax efficient manner into perpetuity , and in this regard , the elimination of Fcri as the principal corporate subsidiary means that substantially all of Fcrs $740 million deferred tax liability will be credited to unit equity through a deferred tax recovery in the fourth quarter of this year , and the third benefit relates to unit holder taxation beginning in 2026 , cash distributions to unit holders will mirror the income profile of Fcrs underlying real estate business .
Speaker #4: Since converting to a REIT in 2019 , distributions to date have been effectively 100% taxable . Future distributions , however , will include taxable income .
Speaker #4: But we also expect there will be some periodic capital gains distributions, which are only 50% taxable, as well as a tax-deferred return of capital component within the regular distribution.
Speaker #4: Any return of capital , of course , is not taxable upon receipt by unitholders . Instead , it reduces the investor's adjusted cost base in the units and therefore defers the taxation until the future sale of those units .
Speaker #4: We , the REIT's executive leadership team , have a meaningful amount of our investable net worth in FCR units . We're financially aligned with investors , and we're very enthusiastic about the benefits of the reorganization .
Speaker #4: So, this concludes my prepared remarks. I'm now pleased to turn the session over to Jordie to elaborate further on FCR's recent investing and related activities.
Speaker #6: Thank you , Neal , and good afternoon . Today I will update you on our investment development and entitlement activities , starting with dispositions during the third quarter .
Speaker #6: We closed or entered into binding agreements on three properties with gross proceeds of $39 million . The most notable of these sales was placed on a 4.7 acre site in Montreal's east End , with two freestanding retail buildings totaling 52,000ft² of GLA .
Speaker #6: The $33 million sale of this future residential development, which closed in July, represented a 30% premium over our IFRS value and equated to a mid-2% yield based upon its income in place during the third quarter.
Speaker #6: We also entered into a binding agreement to sell a property we own located on Jean-Talon in Montreal. This is an IPP site tenanted by an Avis car rental location.
Speaker #6: At $4.5 million, it's a small transaction of a non-strategic FCR asset, but at a 3.4% yield on its income in place.
Speaker #6: It's a logical and accretive snail. Closing is scheduled for December 2025. We are active on several other dispositions, and we will update you on these files as they advance on the acquisition front.
Speaker #6: We completed the purchase of a 50% interest in an 18-acre vacant and unimproved development site located in the Ottawa suburb of Kanata.
Speaker #6: Capitalizing on the property's two existing signalized access points and its strategic location within a major retail node, we plan to develop a large retail shopping center on the site.
Speaker #6: Turning to development phases two and three of our modernization and expansion of Humber Town Shopping Centre, we continue on September 30th. Loblaws, the store sitting in phase two of our redevelopment, took possession of their renovated and enlarged 34,000 square foot premises.
Speaker #6: They anticipate opening in Q2 2026 . Phase three , which includes a newly created 20,000 square foot Shoppers Drug Mart and the Scotiabank , along with a number of other to be announced tenants , are on target for completion in the second half of 2026 .
Speaker #6: On completion of the redevelopment, we will have added a total of 23,000 ft², removed all of its enclosed common area, and Humber Town will look and feel like a brand new grocery and pharmacy-anchored shopping center with anchors in ideal formats.
Speaker #6: Paying market rents. Looking at the associated financial returns, we will have invested approximately $45 million in this redevelopment and will generate an unlevered return that exceeds 7%.
Speaker #6: We are also redeveloping a small property that we own in Calgary. The property is located in Bridgeland, a very desirable and gentrifying neighborhood close to downtown Calgary.
Speaker #6: The new building will be entirely occupied by Shoppers Drug Mart, with a turnover scheduled in Q4 2025 and their opening slated for Q2 2026.
Speaker #6: We currently have other opportunities in the planning stages, including the redevelopment of several other shopping centers. We look forward to providing you with details on this redevelopment work in future quarters.
Speaker #6: Our active mixed use developments continue to advance as well . At Young and Roselawn , we remain on schedule and on budget . We own 50% of this 636 unit residential rental building with 65,000ft² of prime retail space , and serve as its development manager .
Speaker #6: The second floor slab will be completed this month, and work is progressing to the third floor. Eighty-two percent of the project costs are now awarded.
Speaker #6: Construction of our 1071 King Street West development project in Liberty Village also remains on schedule and on budget. Formwork for the 11th floor slab is underway, and precast and window installation are also underway.
Speaker #6: You'll recall we owned 25% of this 298 unit , 17 story , 225,000 square foot purpose built residential rental project , including 6000ft² of at grade retail space .
Speaker #6: During this past quarter , residential occupancy commenced at our Edenbridge condominium development , which forms part of our residential inventory . Possessions have gone very well to date , 124 owners of the 187 units sold have been given possession , with one purchaser in default .
Speaker #6: Turning to entitlements in 2025, we anticipate that we will receive approvals for 2.9 million ft² of incremental density at share this year.
Speaker #6: We also expect to submit rezoning applications for a further 1,600,000 ft² of incremental density to date, netting out the density we've already sold.
Speaker #6: We've submitted for entitlements on approximately 18,000,000 ft² of incremental density. This represents 77% of our 23,000,000 square foot pipeline. As the entitlements are secured and encumbrances removed, we plan to monetize its value through the sale of 100% interest, like we did in Montgomery and Anjou, or a partial sale to a strategic partner like Young and Roseland.
Speaker #6: We look forward to sharing further details with you as we advance. Thank you for your time today and your continued support of Fxr.
Speaker #6: And with that operator, we can now open it up to questions.
Speaker #3: Thank you . Ladies and gentlemen . Joining today over the phones . If you would like to ask a live question over your telephone line , simply press star and one on your telephone keypad pressing star and one will place your line into a queue and I will open your lines individually once more .
Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen , that is star and one . If you would like to ask a question , also be aware that the star one will also remove you from the queue .
Speaker #3: If you find that your question has already been asked, we'll take our first question today from the line of Loren Kumar at Desjardins.
Speaker #7: Thanks . Good afternoon everyone on the disposition side of things . There was obviously a little bit of progress made . This this quarter , but there's still a decent amount of wood to chop in 2026 .
Speaker #7: As we sit here in November . I guess . Does achieving the 750 million target . And I guess more importantly , the low eight times leverage target by the end of 26 still feel realistic .
Speaker #5: Hey , Lawrence . Adam . Well , short answer is yes . Agreed . Some wood to chop . Always some wood to chop .
Speaker #5: Just for your reference, one of the things we do every quarter is review all of the key metrics outlined in the three-year plan.
Speaker #5: And as you saw , I think it was a couple of quarters ago . You know , that we we had a couple of changes versus what we presented initially .
Speaker #5: And so we updated it. So what you should expect is that if we do expect changes to occur, regardless of what they are in terms of the key metrics that we've outlined, we will be updating that on a quarterly basis.
Speaker #5: So where we sit today , you know , we're a little over halfway through the the three year plan . You know , metrics like same property in Hawaii , operating FFO , tracking ahead of plan .
Speaker #5: Our view is debt to EBITDA is tracking on track relative to where we thought we'd be . Dispositions based on the 750 million .
Speaker #5: Again , a little over halfway through , timewise . Similarly , a little over halfway through of the 750 , we're about $400 million of what's closed or been announced as firm .
Speaker #5: So yeah , the disclosure that we've got out is , is very current and and at this point , we believe we will meet the objectives that we've laid out .
Speaker #7: Okay . Fair enough . And then maybe just sticking with this , I think you guys listed a couple of Yorkville assets , not too long ago .
Speaker #7: Just wondering if there was any update on on how , you know , investor appetite and how that that is progressing .
Speaker #5: Yeah. So normally, Jordie would answer this, but he's in the middle of a process—like, right in the middle of a process.
Speaker #5: So the only thing we're going to say today about it is , you know , exceptionally high quality assets we require a significant premium to sell them .
Speaker #5: Otherwise, we're happy to keep them and grow their NOI and their value. But we don't have anything further to report today on those assets.
Speaker #7: Okay . Fair enough . And then just lastly on the I guess , slightly revised same property in Hawaii target . I mean , I guess 2% next quarter gets you to 5% .
Speaker #7: Is there anything you're seeing out there that would indicate for queue would be meaningfully below what you guys have been able to do year-to-date?
Speaker #7: Or are you just erring on the side of being conservative?
Speaker #4: Well , Lord , to be precise , I said at least 5% . So it doesn't have to square up to your 2% interpolation .
Speaker #4: That's for sure . Look , the bottom line is we foresee very solid results to round out the fourth quarter . I can't tell you that they'll match the 6% that we've been able to to lay down for the first nine months of the year .
Speaker #4: But I think you'll they'll stack up quite well versus our peers .
Speaker #7: Okay. Lovely. Thank you very much.
Speaker #5: Thank you .
Speaker #3: Next question will come from the line of Marc Rothschild at Canaccord.
Speaker #8: Thanks . Good afternoon guys . In looking at the same property in high growth , which is clearly strengthened , looking at longer term and not asking for guidance or anything , but how does the slowing population growth impact the type of rent growth you get at your properties , or with the location of your properties ?
Speaker #8: Does it really impact the ability of the retailers to drive sales growth and pay higher rents?
Speaker #5: Hi Mark, thanks for the question. The short answer is no. The main reason is that, from our lens, the fundamentals that we have today are underpinned by 7 to 8 years of activity.
Speaker #5: And over those 7 to 8 years, we have seen a significant increase in the population within the trade areas of our properties, and we have seen almost no supply of our product type during those 7 or 8 years to service that growth and customer base for our tenants.
Speaker #5: And we've gone through a period now where sales across our tenant base have grown at a higher rate as a result of inflation.
Speaker #5: And just as importantly , across our tenant base , the general norm is that profit margins have been protected . And so that means that every store we have is making more profit than it used to , meaning they can afford to pay more rent than they used to .
Speaker #5: So we believe that what's going on now with respect to store expansion is a catch-up phase over the last number of years.
Speaker #5: And so I can tell you discussions , live discussions with tenants today are very robust . And just as optimistic and aggressive as they have been over the last several quarters .
Speaker #5: So we see a lot of future runway for for sustained growth , notwithstanding the change in the federal government's immigration policy and what the impact will be on population .
Speaker #5: And we're looking forward to capturing the benefit of that opportunity .
Speaker #8: Okay , great . I'll leave it there .
Speaker #5: Thank you very much, Mark.
Speaker #3: Next question comes from Sam Damiani at TD Cohen.
Speaker #9: Thank you . Good afternoon . Just on the on the renewal spreads in Q3 a little bit moderated from the the record pace in Q2 .
Speaker #9: Was there was there anything different or anything that was unexpected surprising in Q3 that led to that result ? And and I guess a similar question in terms of how you're thinking about Q4 and 2026 leasing spreads , is there anything that might might impact , you know , the average in any given quarter or next year ?
Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks , Sam . So look , posting up 13.5% year on renewal spreads north of 18% blended . We're thrilled with that .
Speaker #5: That works very well for our business . So we wouldn't view it as moderated as , you know , our long term average is lower than that .
Speaker #5: So, you know, I feel like we've kept pace with the trend that's been established over the last several quarters. So, I am very happy with those results.
Speaker #5: And yeah , generally we expect above average , certainly above our long term average continued growth touching on 2026 Expiries . So there's nothing out of the norm with the exception that in most years we have a small amount .
Speaker #5: But an impactful amount of very low rent space . That's maturing . Call it single digit net rent space . Most notably occupied by Walmart .
Speaker #5: And so if you look at our 2026 Expiries , well , I guess if you look at our 2025 Expiries and where they were heading into the year , what you saw was an average rent expiring at about $22 a square foot .
Speaker #5: If you exclude that low rent space . I'm talking about , like the Walmart , it averaged about $27 a square foot . And so that's kind of the that's the baseline for where we're delivering these low double digit renewal spreads .
Speaker #5: If you look at 2026 , our average expiring rent is about $27 . We view that as a very normal year . And the reason it's normal is that we don't have any Walmarts expiring in 2026 .
Speaker #5: So other than that nuance , which I know last quarter , one of your peers asked the question about it . And so we wanted to take the opportunity to more directly answer it .
Speaker #5: But other than that , we expect a very normal expiry year next year .
Speaker #9: Okay , great . That's helpful . And last one for me is just on on Didsbury Road in Ottawa . I mean , can you provide a little bit of color about what you're planning to build there ?
Speaker #9: What kind of leasing interest you have already ? And is the zoning and site plan approvals in place or expected to be so in the short term ?
Speaker #6: Hi Sam, thanks. In terms of what we're planning to build, I touched on it a bit in my formal remarks.
Speaker #6: It's a call it a conventional , unenclosed shopping center . At this stage , with respect to tenancy . Very preliminary . We've had interest based on , you know , a very small period of time for which we've owned the asset .
Speaker #6: We've got some planning work to do and , you know , in that regard , we'll keep you posted as it advances . But we like to say a lot and we like where it's located .
Speaker #5: Yeah . The only thing I'd add is a 10 million bucks for 18 acres . We've got a lot of optionality .
Speaker #9: Great. Thank you very much, and I'll turn it back.
Speaker #5: Thanks .
Speaker #3: Her next we'll hear next from the line of Mario Saric at Scotiabank .
Speaker #10: Hi . Good afternoon . I wanted to stick to the the leasing discussion . Comment . We just talked about 26 . And if I may I know 27 is is quite far out there .
Speaker #10: But you do have 14.5% of your total GLA expiring in 2027. I was curious if there was anything within those maturities that may be a bit anomalous with respect to kind of low rent renewals.
Speaker #10: Are there any known vacancies? You know, anything kind of idiosyncratic that may drive a blended lease spread that might be different from what you've been doing in the past 12 months?
Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks for the question , Mario . So short answer is no . Nothing . Nothing different . As we look ahead other than what I mentioned , we don't have any , you know , really low rent like Walmart spaces expire next year , which when you park that aside , we look at it as a normal expiry year .
Speaker #5: No major tenants that we know of are believed to be going vacant. It's a strong, strong leasing environment, so we are happy to lease space.
Speaker #5: Certainly hope there is a little bit of turnover—the right turnover, which is what we expect. I wouldn't read too much into 14.5% expiring 2027.
Speaker #5: That's not abnormal. Looking out this far, I can assure you that in a year's time we will not be having 14.5% of our space maturing in 2027.
Speaker #5: Some of that is already under negotiation. But, you know, we typically have between 10% and 15% maturing in any given year.
Speaker #5: And certainly, from our perspective, when we look at 2026 and 2027, we don't see anything out of the norm, and we expect to continue to benefit from a very strong leasing environment.
Speaker #10: Okay . And then , Adam , I think you mentioned 75% of leasing completed this quarter included contractual annual escalators . If we sit back and look at the entire portfolio today , that number has been increasing over the past couple of years for your entire portfolio today , if we were to exclude NOI growth on blended lease extensions or lease spreads just to contractual rent growth in the portfolio today , what would that amount to from a same store and why ?
Speaker #10: Perspective .
Speaker #5: So I'll have Neil address that one. But just for clarity, what I said in my prepared remarks is that 75% or three-quarters of the renewed leases have embedded contractual rent steps throughout the renewal term.
Speaker #5: That does not necessarily mean every single one of them has an annual step. Neil. Yeah, thanks.
Speaker #4: Yeah . So so , Mario , you can look at the business as having a contractual growth rate between 1 and 1.5% at the NOI line .
Speaker #4: And, you know, that's generally been the historic range. And I would say today we're gradually gravitating towards the higher end of that bound.
Speaker #10: Okay . Great . My last question , just with respect to the three year plan that you announced that you're executing on at what stage can we can we expect a three year plan to be rolled forward to include 2027 ?
Speaker #5: Well , we're in year two . We're yeah , yeah . No , you're not the first person that's asked us that . So we're we're and we appreciate people are eager to you know look that far ahead for from our perspective from a what we're prepared to talk about right now is the fact that we're in our we're still in our second year of the three year plan .
Speaker #5: And we we very much look forward to addressing the investment community and the analyst community with where we're heading beyond 2026 . It will be we will do that during the final year of the three year plan and likely during the first half of that year .
Speaker #5: So, sometime, you know, in the early to mid part of next year.
Speaker #10: Okay . Thanks guys .
Speaker #5: Thank you very much, Mario.
Speaker #3: Our next question comes from the line of Pam Beer at RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker #11: Thanks . Hi everyone . Just with respect to from a development standpoint , can you remind us how you see development spending through through 2026 ?
Speaker #4: Yeah . Hi Pami . So the way you should look at it is that we're on track for roughly 160 million , give or take , this year .
Speaker #4: And we had laid out in our three year plan the total number that we expected for the three years . So I think from that you can do a pretty simple rough plug , if you will , for 2026 .
Speaker #4: And you know, more specifically, when we come out with our fourth quarter results in February, at that point, we will be in a position to give you, I'll say, more targeted views on what our expectations for the calendar year.
Speaker #4: .
Speaker #11: Okay , that kind of leads into my next question , which is around capitalized interest as you know , some of these developments are delivered as part of that three year plan , including the condos .
Speaker #11: Not sure if you are prepared to provide any sort of visibility on what the capitalized interest should trend down to in 2026 .
Speaker #4: Well , candidly , I don't have those numbers at my fingertips , which I hope that doesn't surprise you , but I would say in very generic modeling terms , you can probably capitalize interest sort of proportionate to the value of space that's delivered .
Speaker #4: So, I think that's a simple way to think of it. And that's rather agnostic to whether it's residential inventory being delivered or it's investment properties being delivered.
Speaker #11: Okay . And then just , just lastly on on Edenbridge , it sounds like the , the closings are going quite well . I think you mentioned only one default .
Speaker #11: If I heard correctly , but are you anticipating sort of that pace to pick up over I guess from what we've seen in the last I guess through or what we'll see through Q4 and into 2026 .
Speaker #6: All right, Bobby, when you say pace to pick up, you're referring to the defaults.
Speaker #11: Yes. I think you said I can't remember the exact number in terms of closing.
Speaker #6: There was one. Yeah, it was one.
Speaker #11: Yeah. Only one default.
Speaker #6: I would say probably this is important to point out. Like, this is an entirely owner-occupied building. The majority of the buyers happen to live in the neighborhood today.
Speaker #6: They love the neighborhood . They want to stay in the neighborhood . We've sold , as I think I mentioned , 90% of the 209 units to date .
Speaker #6: And we expect that , you know , no major deviation from from the pace that we've experienced , certainly based on the first 124 deliveries .
Speaker #4: Right . So , so those suites will continue to be delivered through year end and into early Q1 . And at that point , we'll have a close process where we we turn ownership or title over to the owners .
Speaker #4: And we effectively book the sales. So that's the way to think about the 90% that's sold, Tommy.
Speaker #11: Got it. And then just lastly on Foreign Key West, I think some of those closings should start next year as well.
Speaker #11: Is the assumption there that based on what you see today, I guess it might be early, but that the default rate would be similarly low there?
Speaker #11: Or is that less owner-occupied?
Speaker #6: Palm . It's Jordan again . Yeah , I would say that building is in fact less owner occupied . I would say it's more call it conventional .
Speaker #6: That being said , you know , we've sold 97% of the units there . We have sold the majority of the those units before really pricing peaks .
Speaker #6: So , you know , we feel pretty good about its prospects going forward . I would suggest the default rate there will likely be higher , but it's not something that we're expressly concerned about .
Speaker #5: Well, it can't be lower.
Speaker #11: Sorry . Got it . Okay . Thanks very much guys . Thank you .
Speaker #5: Okay . Thanks , Bobby .
Speaker #3: We'll move on to the question from Matt Kornick at National Bank Financial.
Speaker #12: Hey, guys. I just wanted to quickly turn back because it's presumably in the 25 remaining lease amount. There is either a Walmart or a similar type of tenancy in that figure.
Speaker #12: Is that subject to a fixed renewal rate, or would that go to market in the remainder of the year? Or is it going to be going to somebody else?
Speaker #5: You're talking about the remaining 2025 lease that expires.
Speaker #12: Yeah , yeah .
Speaker #5: There's no major fixed-rate flat option, if that's what you're asking.
Speaker #12: Okay . So you could have a pretty sizable spread then if you're getting 20 high 20s versus the 18 , that's maturing , correct ?
Speaker #4: Yeah . I mean , Matt , the only thing I would say is as you get into the final quarter or any individual quarter , of course , the sample size is smaller .
Speaker #4: So, you know, a 40,000 square foot space is more impactful than a 100,000 square foot space on a 12-month inventory roll.
Speaker #12: Nope. Fair enough. And then I guess just in terms of the building blocks, we understand lease renewal spreads. Your retention rates are very high.
Speaker #12: You're getting more of these annual rent escalators and the blend. But is there anything that you're gaining on kind of efficiencies, recoveries, or anything tangential to that that would boost the NOI growth a little bit?
Speaker #12: Again, on the margin, probably not that much. But.
Speaker #5: Yeah , well , it's something that our leasing team has been very focused on for quite some time . And they've done a great job over the last couple of years of anywhere between 50 and 100 leases , where the recovery methodology has been less than proportionate share .
Speaker #5: And they've taken it generally to proportionate share, which does not come through our lease renewal rates. That's strictly on net rent.
Speaker #5: So, one of the things that is now cumulatively starting to augment the NOI growth is just better tenant recoveries on operating costs. I don't have the numbers to quantify specifically what you would put into the building block, but it's starting to chip away and make a contribution.
Speaker #12: Okay , interesting . The last one for me . I mean , we've heard kind of land values in Toronto , Vancouver under some stress given the condo market , when you look at transactions today or other people look at assets , how are they thinking about the value of density at the end of the day versus obviously an implied cap rate where you are ?
Speaker #12: That's probably the value of the retail. But does it make sense to sell if, in the future, density is going to be worth a lot more?
Speaker #5: Well , if we if we had a strong view on that , the answer is no . We'd wait to sell it . When it was worth a lot more .
Speaker #5: You know, Jordie and his team have done a great job in a really tough market to sell density in Montreal and Toronto at prices that we are very comfortable with, and obviously, we don't feel like we're leaving a lot on the table.
Speaker #5: This has never been a fire sale . And if you look at our premium to net asset value on the stuff we've sold , it's been remarkable .
Speaker #5: It's been much better than we expected, and so we'll continue to take that disciplined, methodical, tactical approach. And we own great real estate even though we're selling it.
Speaker #5: We still understand the quality, and we will make sure we sell it at the appropriate time for the appropriate price.
Speaker #12: Okay . Makes sense . Thanks .
Speaker #5: Okay. Thank you very much, Matt.
Speaker #3: Our next question today will come from Mike Marcus at BMO Capital Markets . Hello , Mike . Your line is open , sir .
Speaker #13: Sorry , I was on mute . Quick question for me , technical nature . Apologies , Neil . Just on Edenbridge . I guess you're starting to .
Speaker #13: Residents are in occupancy , but you're not booking any inventory gains . That might be in contrast to what we've seen elsewhere . So just to confirm , like you won't , I guess two questions you won't book inventory gains until you register the units as condos in the number one .
Speaker #13: And number two is with respect to permits . Question on the recapitalization . Is there is there construction lines tied to that project and hence effectively pay that down and therefore it becomes a moot point ?
Speaker #4: Okay . Well , the short answer is yes . And yes . Okay . So we will will book it as a as closings and therefore the , the , the residential profit , if you will , will occur at the time of closing in Q1 .
Speaker #4: And there's a significant cash repeat repatriation from those sales processes . Of course . But a lot of that goes directly to pay the construction loan .
Speaker #4: Now , as you know . Well , Mike , the market doesn't do a particularly good job of differentiating debt within our capital stack .
Speaker #4: In other words, it treats a construction loan on a condominium project the same way it treats an unsecured debenture that's been used to finance the income portfolio.
Speaker #4: So, if we pay down the construction loan, our net debt balance decreases.
Speaker #13: , right ? Okay . No , I got that . And then can you just remind me from a , just from a tying to how you're going to report for consensus and all that fun stuff .
Speaker #13: Are you going to book the condo gains in OFO, or are you going to exclude it from OFO?
Speaker #4: A good question . So it will be included in ofo , but importantly , we benchmarked ourselves in terms of our three year plan to ofo prior to any condominium profits .
Speaker #4: So that was the baseline which we gave that three year guidance of average annual growth , averaging at least 3% in FFO per unit was excluding any condo profits .
Speaker #13: Okay , that's it for me . Thanks so much . .
Speaker #5: Thank you very much , Mike .
Speaker #3: And also, we'll take a follow-up from Lauren Kumar. Please go ahead.
Speaker #7: Hey , sorry for having to jump back in here . I just had one quick follow up on toys R us . There's been a lot of chatter about a potential bankruptcy .
Speaker #7: There . Just wondering if you've taken any provisions related to them and if you have plans , if you do , in fact get the space back .
Speaker #6: So we really it's Shorty , by the way . We don't have anything to add besides what what is really in the public domain .
Speaker #6: Our exposure to toys is is really small , represents just under 0.4% of our rent . We had previously sold Anjou , which had a toys in it .
Speaker #6: They recently closed another space that we own half of . So we have two remaining toys , locations and their current , and they're rented both toys really in both these cases , plays pays below market rents and they're located in very high demand centers .
Speaker #6: One in Toronto, one on an island in Montreal. We feel that to the extent we get them back, we are very confident about our ability to backfill them.
Speaker #6: And really , in the case of the Montreal property , it lends quite favorably to a grocery store . And we expect we'd be focused on that opportunity .
Speaker #6: In particular, to the extent this space does come back...
Speaker #7: Okay . Thank you very much . Appreciate it .
Speaker #5: Okay. Thank you very much, Lauren.
Speaker #3: And ladies and gentlemen, that was our final question in the queue for today. I would like to thank you all for taking the time to join today's First Capital Reads Q3 2025 results webcast and conference call.