Q3 2025 Centerspace Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Hello everyone , and welcome to the CENTERSPACE Q3 2025 Earnings Call . My name is Ezra and I will be your coordinator today .
Speaker #1: If you would like to ask a question , please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad . If you change your mind , please press star followed by two .
Speaker #1: I will now hand over the call to Josh . Latest from CENTERSPACE . To begin , please go ahead .
Speaker #2: Good morning everyone . CENTERSPACE is form 10-q for the quarter ended September 30th , 2025 was filed with the SEC yesterday after the market closed Additionally , our earnings release and supplemental disclosure package have been posted to our website at CENTERSPACE , homes.com and filed on form 8-K .
Speaker #2: It's important to note that today's remarks will include statements about our business outlook and . forward looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions .
Speaker #2: These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties discussed in our filings under the section titled "Risk Factors" and in our other filings with the SEC.
Speaker #2: We cannot guarantee that any forward looking statements will materialize and you are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward looking statements .
Speaker #2: Please refer to our earnings release for reconciliations of any non-GAAP information , which may be discussed on today's call . I'll now turn it over to CENTERSPACE president and CEO , Anne Olson for the company's prepared remarks .
Speaker #3: Thank you for joining us today . I'm here with our SVP of Investments and Capital Markets , Graham Campbell , who will provide some comments on the transaction market .
Speaker #3: And our CFO , Bhairav Patel , who will discuss our guidance and balance sheet . CENTERSPACE third quarter and year to date results are a testament to the health of our smaller regional markets , our operating platform , which helped us drive exceptional expense control and the strength of our team , which has remained focused even in light of the significant sale and acquisition activity that we have undertaken .
Speaker #3: For the third quarter , we reported 4.5% year over year growth in NOI . Within our same store portfolio . This is being driven by solid increases in revenue coupled with excellent execution on expenses .
Speaker #3: That said , due to timing adjustments related to our planned strategic transactions and associated G&A costs , we are lowering the midpoint of our core FFO guidance by $0.02 to $4.92 .
Speaker #3: Rob will further discuss the impact of our capital recycling activities when he speaks to our outlook . In June , we announced strategic initiatives that included acquisitions in both Colorado and Utah and dispositions that reduce our portfolio concentration in Minnesota .
Speaker #3: We expect to close on the sale of seven communities in the Minneapolis area . Yet this month , at which time we will have recycled approximately $212 million of capital , an increase the quality and efficiency of our portfolio .
Speaker #3: While our current cost of capital has impeded our ability to execute on external growth opportunities , we are committed to enhancing our market position and value for our shareholders .
Speaker #3: We have many levers we can use to do that , and we will remain disciplined and flexible operationally . Our portfolio continues to benefit from the stability of our Midwest market .
Speaker #3: Like in 2020 for lease rates peaked in mid Q2 and remain positive for us , up 1.3% on a blended basis in the quarter and 1.6% year to date .
Speaker #3: Retention has exceeded our initial expectations , hitting 60% in both of our peak leasing quarters . In our largest market of Minneapolis . Results benefited from the dual tailwinds of improved occupancy and increasing rental rates .
Speaker #3: Where we saw improvement in both new and renewal leases in the quarter , leading to blended increases of 2.1% in our other markets , North Dakota continues to be a standout with portfolio leading blended increases of 5.2% in the quarter .
Speaker #3: Our Denver portfolio has been challenged by supply pressures and Q3 blended lease rates were down 3.5% . Digging more into Denver , we believe our experience there is truly the result of supply based on absorption data , 2025 has been Denver's second best year ever in our portfolio .
Speaker #3: We are seeing higher closing of leads with our Q3 lead to lease of 275 basis points year over year and higher tenant incomes , which are up 7% versus last year , as well as a 70 basis point improvement in our occupancy over Q2 .
Speaker #3: Some of that occupancy was driven by our decision to offer concessions in this market . We anticipate Denver will return to a more normal environment as we move through 2026 , and we remain optimistic .
Speaker #3: I'll ask Grant to comment on the state of the transaction market .
Speaker #2: Thanks , Dan , and good morning , everyone . On a macro level , while we do not expect transaction volumes to return to 2021 and 2022 levels in the near term , this year has produced more transaction activity compared to the last two years .
Speaker #2: We are seeing investors display conviction in placing capital and this dynamic should drive value for our shareholders . Our recent transaction initiatives position the portfolio well for continued long term growth .
Speaker #2: In May , we closed the acquisition of Sugarman in Salt Lake City , and in July we expanded our Fort Collins presence with the acquisition of railway flats in Loveland , Colorado , both of which were discussed in detail on last quarter's call .
Speaker #2: In the case of railway flats , Fort Collins has been a target . Geography for us , as evidenced by two of our recent investments occurring there .
Speaker #2: This market has displayed outperformance in annual rent growth , absorption and vacancy when compared to metro Denver . Within our portfolio , Fort Collins retention is 800 basis points ahead of Denver in the quarter and Fort Collins occupancy is our strongest year over year increase across our portfolio markets .
Speaker #2: To fund these acquisitions , we completed the sale of our Saint Cloud , Minnesota portfolio in September for 124 million , exiting us from that market .
Speaker #2: Investor reception was strong , with buyer interest ranging from individual , community offers to portfolio offers . This portfolio transaction of lower growth prospect communities priced at a 6% cap rate , well inside of the mid 7% implied portfolio cap rate .
Speaker #2: Our stock trades at today . In addition , this week we anticipate closing the sale of seven communities in Minneapolis for 88.1 million .
Speaker #2: These seven assets are smaller communities totaling 679 homes . This transaction will price at a high 5% cap rate . Again , well inside the implied portfolio cap rate .
Speaker #2: We trade at today . Upon completion of this sale , our remaining Minneapolis portfolio will be higher quality , increasingly suburban , with 87% of NOI located in suburban submarkets and operationally more efficient with NOI margin for the Minneapolis portfolio increasing approximately 90 basis points as a result of the impending seven community sale .
Speaker #2: Recent comparable trades support low 5% to 5.75% . Cap rates for our remaining Minneapolis portfolio . Lastly , on the capital allocation front , we repurchased 63,000 shares in the quarter at an average price of $54.86 per share , driven by the current disconnect between public and private market valuation .
Speaker #2: I'll now turn it over to Bhairav to discuss our financial results and guidance . Thanks , Grant and hello everyone . Last night we reported third quarter core FFO of $1.19 per diluted .
Speaker #2: share , driven by a 4.5% .
Speaker #4: Year over year increase in same store NOI . This NOI growth was driven by a 2.4% increase in same store revenues , with revenue growth composed of a 20 basis point increase in occupancy and a 2.2% increase in average monthly revenue for home .
Speaker #4: On the same store . Expense side . Q3 numbers were down 80 basis points year over year , with controllable expenses up 3.4% and Non-controllable is down 7.6% due to favorability in both property taxes and insurance , specifically on property taxes .
Speaker #4: We chewed up our accrual based on recently received assessments of value for Colorado , which were much lower than initially anticipated . Turning to guidance , we now anticipate full year core FFO per diluted share of $4.88 to $4.96 per share , with expectations for 2025 .
Speaker #4: Same store NOI growth of 3% to 3.5% . Within NOI , we expect same store revenues to grow by 2% to 2.5% for the year .
Speaker #4: This reduction is driven mainly by the impact of concessionary activity in Denver . As a reminder , concessions are amortized over the lease term and as such , a portion of the non-cash amortization will be realized in the fourth quarter and in 2026 , positive results in expenses are more than offsetting this .
Speaker #4: With same store expenses not expected to only increase by 75 basis points . Core FFO guidance is lower at the midpoint by $0.02 per share , due to higher expectations for and interest expense , offset by higher NOI .
Speaker #4: With the timing of our dispositions , playing a significant role in those differences . On our balance sheet , our recent acquisition of railway flats , which included the assumption of $76 million of long dated low rate debt at 3.26% , as well as a completed same cloud and planned Minneapolis dispositions has improved our debt profile as these transactions conclude , we expect our net debt to EBITDA to move into a low seven times level by year end , with a pro forma debt profile with an average rate of 3.6% and average time to maturity of 7.2 years .
Speaker #4: To conclude , this was a good quarter for CENTERSPACE with our results demonstrating our commitments to both operational excellence and financial discipline , and setting us up for the fourth quarter and into 2026 .
Speaker #4: Operator , please open the line for questions .
Speaker #1: Thank you very much . We will now open the floor for the Q&A session . If you would like to ask a question , please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad .
Speaker #1: Now please ensure your device is unmuted locally and if you change your mind or your question has already been answered , press star followed by two .
Speaker #1: First question comes from Brad Heffern with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Yeah , hey , everyone . Thanks . On the repurchase , obviously very attractive use of capital right now . Just given where the stock is trading .
Speaker #5: But it does compete against your goals of reducing leverage and increasing the float . So I'm just wondering how you think about the balance .
Speaker #3: Yeah . Good morning Brad and thanks for the question . That's something we think about . You know , every day when we have the opportunity to
Speaker #3: back . Our And I think , as you'll see in this quarter , it was it was a very small use of proceeds , just a few million dollars really .
Speaker #3: We we outperformed on the Saint Cloud sale from where we thought that that would trade . Having gross purchase price of 124 million .
Speaker #3: And so when we looked at the allocation of capital there , we took some of those excess proceeds . We agreed that this is a good use of capital and really sends another signal about where we think the value of the company is .
Speaker #3: And and , you know , our conviction about what we think it's worth .
Speaker #5: Okay . Got it . And then for Minneapolis , you know , you gave some numbers in the prepared comments . It seems like the market showing some pretty strong signs of recovery .
Speaker #5: Can you just talk about your expectations going forward ? Is that sort of a return to normalcy over the next couple of years , or would you expect to see a period of above average performance as sort of a catch up ?
Speaker #3: I think we're seeing right now a return to normalcy in Minneapolis . And as we look towards next year , we are expecting that it's going to outperform .
Speaker #3: Its historical . It hit its peak deliveries . We've had excellent absorption . And if we look at third party data , you know , CoStar RealPage , other Minneapolis is really slated to be in that kind of top five of of US markets for rent growth headed into 2026 .
Speaker #3: So we are expecting a little bit of outperformance there next year . We're optimistic that we're going to be able to capture that strong rent growth and hold our expenses in line to drive good Noi out of Minneapolis .
Speaker #5: Okay . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #2: Hi .
Speaker #6: This is Robin Hanlon sitting in for John.
Speaker #2: It sounds like .
Speaker #6: Revenue was mostly driven by Denver . Weakness . Could you maybe update us on what your expecting for the earnings for 26 ?
Speaker #4: Good morning . Yeah sure . From an earning perspective we're you know we're sitting just a shade above 1% of the at the moment .
Speaker #4: And as you said Robin , it captures some of the weakness in Denver where we're seeing some heavy concessions at the moment , about 1% maybe slightly above .
Speaker #6: Got it . And that's specifically on Denver . Could you just elaborate on the concession levels and how long you expect them to persist ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , certainly . So I'd say concession levels in Denver within our portfolio range from no concessions at a couple of our properties , where we have still seen strong occupancy and good absorption demand .
Speaker #3: There to , you know , six weeks free , maybe some waiving of application fees on the market as a whole . It varies pretty widely .
Speaker #3: You know , we're seeing up to two months free , eight weeks free , ten in some , you know , pretty isolated instances .
Speaker #3: But I'd say with respect to our portfolios concession relative to the market , we're either at or a little bit under what what market concessions are .
Speaker #6: So the portfolio is taking a little bit of a doing quite a little bit of recycling for calling love . Loveland seems to be targeted markets today .
Speaker #6: Could you just maybe give us how new lease performed in those two markets and how they differ from Denver fundamentals .
Speaker #3: Yeah . So we we are looking at four columns , as you said , that is a target market for us . And what we're thinking about there is really just trying to get a little bit of scale in that market .
Speaker #3: We now have two assets in the Fort Collins area , and I'd say when we look at outperformance , there relative to the Denver submarket , Grant commented a little on that .
Speaker #3: And I'm going to have him just take that and give you some stats on what the difference is there between Fort Collins and Denver .
Speaker #2: Yeah , I think that outperformance is a result of the supply dynamic deliveries peaked there in 2024 . Really concentrated in the second and third quarter in terms of the total number of units delivered at the peak , it was measured at about 7 to 8% of total inventory , so a more overall , more muted supply profile .
Speaker #2: And then when you look at , you know , really any time period kind of over the last three years , you know , you'll see rent growth that has outpaced Denver to the tune of about 450 basis points .
Speaker #2: And then also absorption or demand as a percent of inventory has been pretty robust as well , outperforming to the tune of 6 to 700 basis points compared to Denver over that same time period .
Speaker #6: And lastly, for me, how are you thinking about recycling the $88 million of sales expected across repurchases, acquisitions, and debt?
Speaker #3: Yeah , sorry , Robin . Was that question about recycling with respect to the sales that are pending here in Minneapolis ? Yeah .
Speaker #3: So we have already acquired that has already those proceeds have already been spoken for . And so that is part of the acquisitions that we did in Salt Lake City .
Speaker #3: And Fort Collins . These so these proceeds will be used solely to pay down the debt that we incurred to when we undertook those transactions .
Speaker #6: Got it . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #7: Great . Thank you for taking the question . So can you talk about your blended lease growth expectations for the fourth quarter ? Where are you sending out new and renewal leases .
Speaker #7: And then also, just as we think about, you know, we're in the slowest time of the year, what do you think January and February could look like before we get back to the spring leasing season?
Speaker #4: Again . Yeah . So for the fourth quarter , you know , renewals are out for the rest of the year . October renewals still , you know , in the high two to low 3% range .
Speaker #4: So that's pretty strong you know . But the new lease trade outs remain negative . So there's no real material change in trend relative to Q3 that we've seen so far .
Speaker #4: But from an occupancy standpoint it remains stable . And the exposure is trending in the right direction . So overall for the portfolio , you know , we're showing exposure in the low 5% range , which is a good place to be as we think about Jan and Feb , it's hard to say .
Speaker #4: You know , we still need to make it through the next couple of months from a concession standpoint in Denver . And if we see some reversal in concessions and , you know , stabilization and occupancy , which we are seeing , that'll give us a better indication of where next year may start .
Speaker #7: Okay . Thank you for that . And then can you talk on the expense side . Can you talk about the drivers of the higher G&A expense for the year ?
Speaker #7: And then also , just as we think about modeling 26 . Any specific line items that you think could be , you materially savings year over year or growth year over year ?
Speaker #7: I know you mentioned the the Colorado taxes . Just any any one time items . We should be thinking about that could help or hurt .
Speaker #4: Yeah . So I'll take the G&A question first . You know , there were some additional fees and legal expenses that we incurred in the quarter , plus some true ups , which had an impact on the Q3 numbers .
Speaker #4: More importantly , none of these are run rate items . So , you know , from a run rate perspective , you know , our our run rate remains in the $28 million range in line with what we had previously disclosed with respect to Q3 .
Speaker #4: There was there was a true up in taxes , specifically in Colorado , which which drove the the reduction in expense there . We still expect some true ups .
Speaker #4: You know , in Q4 , in other jurisdictions . But overall , that should just bring taxes in about the 2% range growth year over year , which is pretty normalized when we think about 2026 , there aren't really particularly one time items that come to mind .
Speaker #4: One of the expense items that in recent years has driven some volatility is insurance . We should be renewing it in the next couple of weeks .
Speaker #4: And , you know , at this point , we don't really anticipate a big increase , which is a good outcome just given the 12% reduction we experienced last year that has typically driven some volatility in year over year expense growth over the past couple of years .
Speaker #4: But that is expected to be a non-factor when it comes to 2026 . So there's no real particular items that come to mind .
Speaker #4: You know , with these updates to taxes , it just seems like taxes would be in a normalized year over year pattern .
Speaker #7: Okay , thanks for that . And since you mentioned insurance , are you able to ballpark or just give us a range on how they may look across the industry next year ?
Speaker #7: I know you probably don't want to talk about yours specifically yet .
Speaker #4: Yeah . No , I mean , I think , you know , a lot of it depends on , you know , when your renewal cycle falls .
Speaker #4: I mean , we are in the process of having those discussions and , you know , over the past couple of months , we've had several discussions with , you know , the hope that it remains in the low single digits .
Speaker #4: And that's where it's trending . You know , it might be a little bit favorable , but , you know , too early to tell .
Speaker #4: Even though it's just a couple of weeks away . But I think overall it's a huge factor . You know , the renewal cycle with us , you know , being at the fag end of the of the year , you know , there might be some activity , you know , that that drives losses , which we haven't really seen this year .
Speaker #4: So we're expecting a favorable outcome this year . You know , which , as I said is is a good follow up to last year's 12% reduction .
Speaker #7: Okay . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Our next . question comes from Connor Mitchell with Piper Sandler . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #8: Hey , thanks for taking my question . And you mentioned , you know , you had some opening commentary on Denver and the supply drag .
Speaker #8: And then Grant on some of your kind of focus on the boulder and Fort Collins and how that's kind of comparing in better rent growth to Denver , I guess , just kind of drilling down on both of those .
Speaker #8: Can you just maybe just give us an idea of when you really see Denver turning the corner for supply , whether it's earlier in the year or later in the year , it seems like there's kind of more of a drag than we had expected earlier this year into 26 .
Speaker #8: And then the the demand around that as well . It sounds like the , the income is still growing for Denver and the Colorado markets , but maybe any other influences or factors that are really giving you guys some good conviction on , on Denver and then also the comparison to how you guys want to keep scaling up in Boulder and Fort Collins and how you kind of compare those two markets within the same state .
Speaker #2: Yeah . Good morning Connor . On the supply front in Denver , obviously it experienced its peak delivery levels later in the cycle relative to many institutional markets .
Speaker #2: When we look ahead , we really think demand will start to outpace supply in the back half of 2026 . And that will certainly carry forward into 2027 .
Speaker #2: So late 26 into 27 is when we expect demand to start to exceed supply from a scaling perspective , obviously , Boulder , Fort Collins , that is a smaller geographic market relative to the size of Denver .
Speaker #2: We really like our position in that market with three assets now totaling about 980 homes . We do think there could be additional opportunity there , but we're going to be selective and we're going to be targeted in our approach as it relates to that market .
Speaker #2: We do have desires to scale other regions within within the portfolio , including Salt Lake City , which is a new market for us .
Speaker #2: So Fort Collins certainly happy with the performance . We'll continue to look at opportunities there , but we'll be targeted in that approach .
Speaker #2: And then supply in Fort Collins . As I touched on earlier , certainly a more muted supply profile peaked in second and third quarter of 2024 .
Speaker #2: That continued demand and absorption that I alluded to earlier is really creating a strong backdrop for fundamentals right now .
Speaker #8: Okay . And then maybe just following that line of thinking as well , you know , you guys entered Salt Lake and you're scaling up in Fort Collins and Boulder and Loveland and then I know that you guys have mentioned just thinking of other markets for for new entries as well .
Speaker #8: Maybe if you could just stack rank that as those three options for the capital recycling program , and then thinking of expanding presence in the current markets , the ones that you're expanding in , you know , for Collins , Boulder and then Salt Lake or even entering a new a new market that's been discussed .
Speaker #2: Are priority . And that ranking , if you will , would be Salt Lake City . We do desire to scale that market .
Speaker #2: That is important to us , and we're highly focused on that . So that would be at the top of the list with the caveat that it has to be the right opportunity .
Speaker #2: You know, we're not going to buy a product there just to fill out the pie chart, if you will. It has to make sense.
Speaker #2: Be the right opportunity , and we're going to continue to seek those in terms of new markets , we're always thinking about markets internally .
Speaker #2: We're always having those discussions . We'll continue to do that . And you know more to come from our perspective . There .
Speaker #8: Okay I appreciate that . And then maybe just turning to the expense side , I think you guys are pretty well set up on rubs .
Speaker #8: You've gone through that the past couple of years . And then just kind of following the line of questioning earlier . Is there anything else that needs to be done in in setting up rubs or any other expenses that we kind of headed winter or should be thinking about with the winter months coming up ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , I think we are really well set up . As you said , we had deployed rubs across the portfolio . That's fully , you know , deployed all of our assets are on rubs to the extent they can .
Speaker #3: One thing to be thinking about, which isn't unique to us, but as an industry, is that there has been some legislation in Colorado that will limit our ability to pass on rubs that will take effect January 1st.
Speaker #3: And so that will have some negative impact . And we are working right now on , you know , what the steps we're going to take so that we can make sure that those are billed directly to tenants rather than through rubs .
Speaker #3: So there there may be some disruption there . I think that'll be market wide in Denver as we look towards 2026 .
Speaker #8: Okay . Interesting . I appreciate all the colors . Thank you guys .
Speaker #9: I will next question comes from Rob Stevenson with Jamie.
Speaker #1: Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Speaker #10: Good morning you guys lowered the value add expenditure guidance by 2 million at the midpoint . Was that due to the Minnesota sales or did you pull back on redevelopment within the core portfolio ?
Speaker #4: Good morning Rob . No , I think that was more timing driven than anything else . It wasn't really , truly driven by the Minneapolis portfolio because we hadn't really earmarked much capital to be deployed at those assets .
Speaker #4: Knowing that we were going to dispose them . So it was it's more timing driven than anything else . You know , that's thematic , okay .
Speaker #10: How aggressive are you in starting new projects today given , you know , the status of your various markets operationally ?
Speaker #3: I'd say right now we're very focused on things that can enhance the portfolio overall . So , you know , broad based ways to save water , electricity , you know , value add enhancements that can drive operating expense reductions , such as our smart rent implementation , where we installed leak detectors and keyless entries .
Speaker #3: But we're really trying to be mindful of our cost of capital that is driving up the return that we need to see . On investments .
Speaker #3: And then also with the softer market , we really want to have conviction around getting the premiums that we need in order to get to the hurdles that we want to see , given our cost of capital and the return expected .
Speaker #3: So we've pulled back a little bit on things like unit renovations and common area renovations , but we are still looking at , you know , broader portfolio wide initiatives that can drive in particular operating expense reductions .
Speaker #10: Okay . And then last one for me , Bhairav Patel what does the 93 million of secured debt mature in 2026 ? Is that early in the year ?
Speaker #10: Late in the year ?
Speaker #4: I think it's in the first half . You know , some in the first quarter and some in the second quarter . So it's all done in the first half or by June .
Speaker #10: Okay . And what is your best option for debt today to refinance . And where is that pricing .
Speaker #4: Yeah . So I mean , you know , what's maturing is secure debt . You know that's available in the low 5% range .
Speaker #4: Can , you know , can be driven a little bit lower based on leverage . So that's that's an option . You know , the other option we have is following the the paydown in the line of credit .
Speaker #4: Once we close the dispositions we'll have a lot of capacity on the line of credit . One of the reasons we expanded the line of credit was to give us flexibility , just given the disconnect between short term rates and long term rates .
Speaker #4: So that's another source of potential funding that allows us to keep the spread low and also pick up maybe a few basis points on on the on the spread between short term rates and long term rates .
Speaker #4: Overall , you know , the availability of debt capital . You know , it's a pretty favorable environment from a debt capital standpoint for the sector .
Speaker #4: So there's multiple sources of debt , including bank debt . If needed . So we have a range of options that that we can utilize to to refinance the upcoming maturities .
Speaker #10: Okay . Thanks guys . Appreciate the time this morning .
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Amy Robach with UBS . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #11: Hi . Thanks . The revenue growth leaders have been Omaha and North Dakota . And while those remain strong in the quarter , the same seems to revenue growth is decelerating .
Speaker #11: So I'm wondering if there's anything to point to there that's leading to a bit lower growth .
Speaker #3: Yeah , Amy it's really Denver . It's really the offset from Denver having a you know , still decelerating a little bit . And having negative new lease growth .
Speaker #3: So as strong as North Dakota and Omaha are , they're smaller portions of our portfolio . And really that deceleration overall in projected revenue growth for the year is is because of Denver .
Speaker #11: Okay . And is there anything to call out for Omaha or North Dakota specifically that they're also decelerating ?
Speaker #3: No , I think just these seasonality , you know , we're getting into the winter months , we have fewer expirations . There is less demand as we move through the quarter .
Speaker #3: And we did see , you know , that peak leasing has really moved from what was the end of June , July historically , you know , into May .
Speaker #3: So that that seasonality comes down a little bit faster during the year . We see really strong renewals in both of those regions .
Speaker #3: So that that is great to see . And will help keep keep that revenue boosted .
Speaker #11: Got it. And then I guess on that note, are you doing any lease expiration management to try to shift more of your leases towards more of that May peak leasing season, especially as opposed to the winter where there's not a ton of demand in those upper Midwest markets?
Speaker #3: Yeah , always . So we are constantly watching that lease expiration profile . It's a very large part of our revenue management as we look to see what the what the most attractive lease term for us is , as well as where we can we can drive pricing for those lease terms .
Speaker #3: So we have been consciously working on , you know , maintaining that you you may recall , Amy , several years ago , we kind of completely redid the lease expiration profile after not having managed it , you know , to match the demand cycle .
Speaker #3: And that's been a constant focus for us these past few years .
Speaker #11: Got it . Thanks . And then last one for me , you've seen a pretty consistent trend of same store revenue per home growth being above same store rent growth .
Speaker #11: Is that mainly driven by Rubs , or is there something else that's causing that spread to remain elevated ? And do you think it's sustainable ?
Speaker #3: Yeah it is . It is mostly driven by rubs . We also have things like , you know , pet rent and you know , that is sustainable , that has grown over time , where we see more and more people having that ancillary items on , on their lease .
Speaker #3: And then do you want to comment on that as well ?
Speaker #4: Yeah . And then you kind of think about it specifically on a quarter to quarter basis . There can be some timing driven volatility , but overall , as Ann mentioned , you know , it's it's really some of the other line items from the revenue standpoint .
Speaker #4: .
Speaker #11: Got it . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Our .
Speaker #9: Next question comes from Rich Anderson .
Speaker #1: With Cantor Fitzgerald . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #12: Hey thanks . Good morning . Just a couple really quick modeling questions first . So varied FFO went up $0.02 . Core FFO went down $0.02 .
Speaker #12: Can you just what's the four cent swing factor in the normalized lines ?
Speaker #4: Yeah , I mean I can , you know , look into it further . But overall from a core FFO standpoint , the key driver is , is really the gas spike that we saw in , in Q3 .
Speaker #4: That kind of stays with us in Q4 . So that's really what's driving the core FFO . And I can look into it further and tell you what the difference is between between the two .
Speaker #12: Okay . And then in terms of expense growth , you know , we talked a lot about tax ups and whatnot . But if I'm doing this right , the four Q number is sort of very impressive from a euro year basis .
Speaker #12: Something like 4% reduction , same store expenses . Is that in the ballpark that what you're seeing or are we doing something wrong here .
Speaker #4: Yeah . So you know that's that's in the ballpark . One of the reasons is it's a favorable comp for us this quarter because we had some Ram expenses last year that were pushed into Q4 .
Speaker #4: And some , you know , so that was really driving the expense higher last year . So it is a favorable comp . There is some benefit from the valuations that we receive in Colorado .
Speaker #4: Plus we expect some additional benefit in some of the other jurisdictions . When you kind of put it all together , that is what's creating that .
Speaker #4: You know , that year over year number that you're seeing , as in the ballpark that we have as well .
Speaker #12: Okay , great . All right . Now some real questions . So , you know , you've had some success in Saint Cloud , as you mentioned .
Speaker #12: You did better than you thought . Still , the negative spread between sales and purchases is some one 5200 basis points . Now , you know , as you look ahead into 2026 , you're not going to give me guidance .
Speaker #12: I don't think . But but do you think that that spread will hold as you continue to pursue this trade strategy ? Or is there something about the environment or where you might sell and where you might buy , where that that spread between buys and sells might change in one direction or the or another ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , I'll start and then I'll ask Grant to comment on , you know , where he thinks cap rates are . And going into 2026 for the markets that we're targeting .
Speaker #3: Don't
Speaker #3: Minneapolis , that we're projecting into 2026 , where they're well into the recovery , demand and the absorption has been really strong . And we're expecting strong rent growth .
Speaker #3: We could see the cap rates on the sales , on any sales in Minneapolis and even places like North Dakota , where we have , you know , had a really good experience and they've now had several years of very strong growth .
Speaker #3: We could see those come in a little bit and then Grant , what do you think about any movement on target market cap rates ?
Speaker #2: Yes . Target market cap rates have been pretty constant here recently . Well located core communities in Denver , pricing in the high fours , Salt Lake City , mid to high fours .
Speaker #2: Core communities in Minneapolis , pricing in the low fives . And then when you slide into the class B space , you know , well-located Minneapolis or Denver B is generally call it five and a half to five and three quarters .
Speaker #2: We don't see as we sit today any significant change to that profile . I think one theme that we have seen as we've explored sales and markets like Saint Cloud or talk to others , is there really is a deep bid right now for the secondary and tertiary market products ?
Speaker #2: So there's a lot of capital desiring to be in those locations. They can obtain financing that is attractive to them. So we've really seen a strong bid and strong pricing in those markets.
Speaker #2: So that's something we are monitoring as we think about our future actions . And where would those cap rates settle ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , we're clearly focused on what's that differential and what does it do do to our earnings . And you know the immediate future of our earnings .
Speaker #3: But we're we're really trying to balance that with what is the best growth profile for the company . Longer longer term . What and what provides us with the liquidity we need .
Speaker #3: That's that's demanded by public market investors . You know , and where we can take the company from a growth perspective over a longer period of time .
Speaker #12: Great . Okay . And then on Denver , you know , you mentioned maybe fortunes start to turn in 2027 . It is a big market for you .
Speaker #12: Of course . Have you given any thought to moving around within Denver , or do you think that the exposure to Denver will change as your as the world around it changes ?
Speaker #12: And the reason I ask is , you know , you could probably get some decent cap rates there if you were to sell some assets and reduce your exposure to Denver .
Speaker #12: I don't know that that's your plan , but I'm just wondering if you're having any change of thought about your exposure to Denver .
Speaker #12: You know , and and if there might be any transaction activity , you know , buys or sells , you know , maybe you get in front of , you know , what will be a recovery eventually .
Speaker #12: And just I'm just curious if you have any change of heart around Denver and your process in the transaction market .
Speaker #2: We like our position in Denver . We like how our portfolio lays out geographically as well as the different product type offerings that we have within our portfolio .
Speaker #2: So I would say no concrete plans to significantly change that composition via transactions . With that said , we always pick up the phone if people reach out and have an idea or a thought , and we'll continue to do that .
Speaker #2: So, if somebody reaches out regarding one of our Denver communities, we will listen to them. But overall, we like our position.
Speaker #2: I think more so the exposure level that Denver provides within our portfolio will change as the world around it . As you alluded to , changes here over the course of 2026 and 2027 .
Speaker #12: Great . And last for me . You know , leverage ticks down to low sevens after you're done with everything that's on on the on the plate right now .
Speaker #12: Do you foresee a six handle at some point in your in your future in 2026 or should we be assuming kind of a seven ish type of leverage number for you guys for the for for now and for the foreseeable future ?
Speaker #12: Thanks .
Speaker #4: Yeah . I mean , the six handle comes through some natural deleveraging as earnings grow . Obviously , as you know , there's some portfolio repositioning .
Speaker #4: You know , that we've been doing . So you know things may be volatile for a while as you saw this year . But from our perspective the focus always remains on managing it at a , you know , in the low the moment and then letting it tick down with some naturally leveraging it through earnings .
Speaker #4: sevens at
Speaker #12: Okay, great. That's all I have. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Mason Gehl with Baird . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #13: Hey good morning everyone . Which of your smaller markets do you expect to outperform next year ? And then when do you expect your larger markets to take lead in the portfolio over your smaller markets ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , I think we're we're really have a lot of confidence that North Dakota is going to continue to perform . It's been outperforming our other markets .
Speaker #3: We see that continuing into
Speaker #3: Minneapolis is going to be close on its tail next year with with some really good tailwinds we have here , particularly with respect to how much demand we've seen in this market .
Speaker #3: And then I think it's 2027 , as Grant kind of alluded to before , we're really seeing the dearth of new supply coming online that can impact that can impact growth rates overall .
Speaker #3: So next year , I'd keep a close eye on North Dakota again . And then into 2027 , we might see Denver and Minneapolis really start to outpace that .
Speaker #13: Great. And can you talk about what drove the lower disposition proceeds guidance?
Speaker #3: I'm sorry . Mason , can you can you repeat that question ?
Speaker #13: Yeah . Just could you talk about what drove the lower disposition proceeds ? Guidance ?
Speaker #4: Estimation from , you know , overall , the disposition proceeds when you compare it for all the assets were in line . We outperformed in Saint Cloud a little bit .
Speaker #4: Minneapolis came in , you know , a little bit below what we had initially expected . You know , that is mostly driven by the fact that the portfolio Minneapolis is a little disparate .
Speaker #4: It's a collection of different kind of assets . And we were prioritizing execution . There , you know , through the sale to a single bidder , which helps us from a 1031 standpoint , which was an integral part of this overall recycling transaction .
Speaker #4: So a bunch of different , you know , factors led us to prioritize execution over just optimizing the proceeds . Given everything that was incorporated within the transaction .
Speaker #13: Great . Thank you .
Speaker #1: Thank you very much. Just as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad.
Speaker #1: Now . Our next question comes from Buckhorn with Raymond James . Your line is now open . Please go ahead .
Speaker #2: Hey .
Speaker #14: Thanks . Good morning . Just a couple quick ones for me . You know , it sounds . Pardon me ? It sounds like you're doing a great job on on resident retention in this environment .
Speaker #14: And managing through the the supply and sounds like there's not a lot of movement from existing tenants . I'm just wondering , though , to what extent .
Speaker #14: I mean , there's been a lot of talk about the weakening of the job market , particularly for young adults . Recent college graduates , just kind of financial pressures that are building on kind of the younger cohort .
Speaker #14: Are you seeing any signs of that in your recent new lease traffic or any , you know , is there any degradation in , you know , the renter tenant profiles or what are you seeing in terms of front door leasing demand ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , this is a great question . We haven't seen anything . Now it's a little hard to bifurcate . So a couple things that we have seen that we mentioned in comes continue to rise .
Speaker #3: So and and rent to income ratios are staying pretty steady I think we're at 22% . So the our bad debt has held really low which is great .
Speaker #3: So we feel great about the health of the renter . Retention is higher . As you mentioned , the average age of our resident has ticked up and the and also the of time that their tenure with us overall is ticking up .
Speaker #3: So it's hard to say if you look at that . You know , age is going up . Is that an indication that we're not seeing as many younger renters coming to the market ?
Speaker #3: So it's hard to say if you look at average amount it could also just be a factor of , you know , the not as many people able to buy homes at the same age as they historically have , but we're not seeing any degradation in traffic overall other than just , you know , in Denver , the market , the traffic has been a little softer in the market .
Speaker #3: But no indication that we're , you know , there hasn't been a big spike in age of residents showing that we aren't getting that younger , younger renters still in .
Speaker #3: We haven't seen a change in the average residents per household either . So there's really no evidence that people are starting to double up .
Speaker #3: If anything , it may bode well for us if they're moving home for their parents . That will create , you know , future , future demand for us .
Speaker #14: Great , great . No . Appreciate the color there . That's very helpful . And just last one following up the the value add CapEx shift , I mean , would that you know , it sounds like the hurdle rate's getting a little higher .
Speaker #14: Would you consider diverting some of those previously budgeted proceeds to share repurchases in the year end ?
Speaker #3: Yeah , I think when I , you know , the levers that we have to pull would be not only share repurchases , but debt reduction , you know , so we're we're looking at every option .
Speaker #3: It's too small of an amount to really allocate in a meaningful way to new acquisitions. But definitely look at debt reduction and share repurchases as alternative uses of that capital.
Speaker #14: Perfect . Thanks , guys . Good luck .
Speaker #1: Thank you very much. We currently have no further questions, so I will hand back over to Anne for any closing remarks.
Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks everyone for joining us today . You know , we'd be remiss if we didn't acknowledge again our team who did such a great job this quarter .
Speaker #3: And we are going to continue into 2026 . Given the environment we think we're putting up great results for our shareholders , and we're going to keep that at the forefront of everything .
Speaker #3: We do . Have a great day .