Q3 2025 Frontier Group Holdings Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #2: Good day and thank you for standing by . Welcome to the frontier Group Holdings . Quarter three , 2025 Earnings Call . At this time , all participants are in a listen only mode .

Speaker #2: After the speakers presentation , there will be a question and answer session . To ask a question during the session , you will need to press star one .

Speaker #2: One on the telephone . You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised . To withdraw your question , please press star one .

Speaker #2: One again , please be advised that today's conference is being recorded . I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today , David Erdman senior Director of Investor Relations .

Speaker #2: Please go ahead .

Speaker #3: Thank you , and good afternoon , everyone . Welcome to our third quarter 2020 earnings call . On the call with me in speaking order are Barry Biffle Chief Executive Officer Jimmy Dempsey , President Bobby Schroeder , chief commercial officer .

Speaker #3: And Mark chief financial officer . Each will deliver brief , prepared remarks . But before they do , I'll recite the customary safe harbor provisions .

Speaker #3: During this call , we will be making forward looking statements , which are subject to risks and uncertainties . Actual results may differ materially from those projected in these forward looking statements .

Speaker #3: Additional information concerning risk factors , which could cause such differences are outlined in the announcement . We released moments ago , along with reports we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission .

Speaker #3: We'll also be discussing non-GAAP financial measures . Actual results of which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of the earnings announcement .

Speaker #3: And as well , we'll be talking about stage adjusted unit metrics , which are based on 1000 miles . So I'll give the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks .

Speaker #3: Barry . Thanks ,

Speaker #4: David , and good afternoon , everyone . We delivered third quarter results per share at the midpoint of our guidance range , demonstrating disciplined execution as we navigated competitive , fare pressures and excess peak capacity through the rigorous , rigorous cost management .

Speaker #4: Operationally , our performance was noteworthy . In September and October , ranking third and fourth respectively . In completion factor among domestic carriers , underscoring our reliability and operational strength .

Speaker #4: Looking ahead , the competitive landscape is shifting in our favor with our largest low fare competitor significantly reducing capacity . We anticipate a more balanced supply demand environment .

Speaker #4: This positions us to accelerate key commercial initiatives aimed at driving growth and reinforcing our competitive advantage . Our strategy remains clear to be the leading low fare carrier in the top 20 U.S.

Speaker #4: metros . We are leveraging enhancements to our loyalty program and upgraded product offerings , including the rollout of first class seating by spring , an important milestone in elevating customer experience and revenue opportunities .

Speaker #4: At the same time , we will continue to aggressively manage costs to preserve our industry leading cost advantage , which is central to delivering sustainable margin improvement .

Speaker #4: I want to thank our 15,000 Team Frontier members , including pilots , flight attendants , mechanics , airport staff and more , whose dedication enables us to deliver the exceptional service and execute on our strategy every day .

Speaker #4: I'll now turn the call over to Jimmy for commercial review . Jimmy .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Barry , and good afternoon , everyone . In the third quarter , total revenue was $886 million . On 4% lower capacity year over year revenue per passenger rose to $106 , up 1% from the prior year , supported by an 81% load factor .

Speaker #5: Nearly three points higher than last year . Ransom was 9.1 $0.04 , and stage adjusted Ratzon improved 2% year over year to 8.7 $0.06 , reflecting disciplined capacity deployment for the fourth quarter .

Speaker #5: We expect capacity to be roughly flat year over year , with an average stage length of approximately 890 miles . Importantly , competitive seat capacity is projected to decline by two percentage points , including significant reductions by Spirit Airlines , which is exiting 36 overlapping routes and reducing frequencies by 30% across 41 others .

Speaker #5: In December , this dynamic should drive sequential improvement in stage adjusted Rassam and supports our confidence as we plan for 2026 . We expect to return to growth next year , given the developing competitive landscape , and will provide formal 2026 capacity guidance on our next earnings update to capitalize on emerging opportunities , we announced 42 new routes launching through early 2026 , expanding our presence in major metro areas such as Atlanta , Baltimore , Charlotte , Chicago , Dallas , Fort Worth , Detroit , Fort Lauderdale and Houston , along with new international destinations including Guatemala , Honduras , Mexico , Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas .

Speaker #5: These additions reinforce our commitment to scale and strengthen our network . Finally , I'm pleased to welcome Jeff Mathieu as our new Chief Information Officer .

Speaker #5: Jeff brings deep experience leading large scale . It organizations and will accelerate our digital transformation , enhancing customer engagement and driving efficiency . I'll now hand it over to Bobby to provide a brief loyalty update .

Speaker #6: Thanks , Jimmy . The significant investments in our loyalty assets , including Frontier Miles , our Co-brand credit card , Go Wild Pass and Discount Den , generated approximately $7.50 in revenue per passenger in the third quarter , up more than 40% year over year , driven by that resonate with higher income , higher credit customers .

Speaker #6: Frontier Miles now offers the most attainable elite status in the industry , with meaningful benefits like premium seat upgrades , free bags and unlimited companion travel .

Speaker #6: We've expanded redemption options through miles for bundles and improved boarding for our most loyal customers . In addition , cardholders received two free checked bags , a benefit we introduced last year that has been very well received and we recently introduced Free companion passes with the credit card .

Speaker #6: These initiatives are fueling engagement and position us to double loyalty revenue per passenger over time , creating a durable , high margin revenue stream .

Speaker #6: I'll turn it over to Marc now for the financial update .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Bobby .

Speaker #7: And good afternoon , everyone . Recapping our cost performance during the third quarter . Our non-fuel operating expenses were 729 million , down 6% sequentially , driven largely by fleet impacts associated with spare engine inductions and related sale leaseback financing gains .

Speaker #7: The increase in Non-fuel expenses over the prior year quarter was primarily related to a one time , $38 million non-recurring credit tied to a legal settlement recognized in the 2020 fourth quarter , and fleet related growth on a unit basis .

Speaker #7: Adjusted Casm ex fuel in the third quarter was 7.5 $0.03 , 9% higher year over year , due largely to a 15% reduction in aircraft utilization resulting from our disciplined capacity deployment primarily on off peak days .

Speaker #7: Fuel expense was $234 million , down 10% year over year , driven mainly by a 5% decrease in the average fuel cost . 4% lower capacity and slightly higher fuel efficiency .

Speaker #7: We generated 105 Asm's per gallon in the quarter , 2% higher than the corresponding 24 quarter third quarter net loss was 77 million , including 1 million of tax expense resulting in a net loss per share of $0.34 .

Speaker #7: At the midpoint of our guidance , we ended the quarter with $691 million in total liquidity in addition , post quarter end , we issued a $105 million par value note in a private placement that is secured by substantially all of the spare parts and tooling related to our fleet of A320 family aircraft .

Speaker #7: The note matures in 2032 . Pro forma for this transaction , liquidity on September 30th was approximately 21% of trailing 12 months revenue .

Speaker #7: Briefly recapping fleet activity during the quarter , we took delivery of two A321neo aircraft , both financed with sale leaseback transactions , bringing our total aircraft fleet to 166 at quarter end .

Speaker #7: We expect another ten aircraft deliveries in the fourth quarter . Our largest quarterly allocation of the year , comprised of seven A320neos and three A321neos , of which all have committed sale leaseback financing .

Speaker #7: Following the agreement with Pratt executed in July, we took delivery of six GTF spare engines in the third quarter, all of which were financed with sale-leaseback transactions.

Speaker #7: We expect to take delivery of another ten GTF spare engines in the fourth quarter , which we also expect to finance with sale leaseback transactions .

Speaker #7: Turning to guidance . As provided in this afternoon's announcement , we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings between 4 and $0.20 per diluted share on capacity , which is expected to be roughly flat year over year .

Speaker #7: The average all in fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon , which is $0.09 higher relative to the prior quarter . Forward curve indication .

Speaker #7: Our fourth quarter guidance reflects an expected improvement in competitive overlap capacity versus the prior year quarter . Continued progress across key commercial initiatives , fleet related financing activities , and jet fuel prices , which are elevated relative to the prior quarter guidance expectation .

Speaker #7: Lastly , we do not expect the material tax provision in the fourth quarter due to a cumulative tax loss carry forward , which will largely offset any tax expense .

Speaker #7: Thanks again , everyone . And operator . We're ready to begin the Q&A segment .

Speaker #2: Thank you . At this time , we will conduct the question and answer session as a reminder to ask a question . You will need to press star one on your phone and wait for your name to be announced .

Speaker #2: To withdraw your question , please press star one . One again , please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster . Our first question comes from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley .

Speaker #2: Your line is now open .

Speaker #8: Great . Thanks , everyone . Just a couple of questions on the competitive capacity here . Obviously , you guys are being pretty disciplined right now with flat growth next quarter .

Speaker #8: But what's the risk to the industry potentially fills in for the capacity that's coming out here . And we end up in roughly the same situation that we had before .

Speaker #4: I don't I don't think that's that's likely . Thanks for the question . Look , the capacity that's coming out right now is , is some of the lowest cost capacity and some of the lowest yielding customers .

Speaker #4: The only ones that could actually profit off that is actually us . So I just don't see that being replaced by by big airlines .

Speaker #4: It's not their business .

Speaker #8: Understood . Maybe a quick follow up . Kind of . How long do you think the tailwind here lasts ? Is this something that is really strong out the gate ?

Speaker #8: Kind of given the disruption ? Or do you think it gets kind of better , if you will , from your perspective ? The longer it goes on ?

Speaker #4: Well , I wish I knew the answer to the pace of that . I mean , it's dribbling pretty good . Tailwind right now .

Speaker #4: Could that tailwind go from 30 miles an hour to 100 miles an hour ? Possibly it increases , but we see a lot of tailwinds over the next , next year .

Speaker #4: At some point , it's it's it's going to change . But right now we see a pretty good path to to a very good environment for frontier .

Speaker #8: Understood . Thanks , guys .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Atul Mansouri of UBS . Your line is now open .

Speaker #9: Good evening . Thanks a lot for taking my question . I have a question on the government shutdown . That's just recent news that if a deal is not reached by November 7th , we're looking at 10% cuts across the top 40 airports .

Speaker #9: If that were to come to pass , what would be the financial impact on frontier ? Presumably this could , for rasam for the fourth quarter , but then you'd end up carrying excess costs .

Speaker #9: So maybe you can help us? Dimensionalize relative to your current guidance, like how much of an incremental risk this would be?

Speaker #4: We listen . We heard about this in the last 20 minutes , just like you did . You know , my knee jerk reaction is we need to figure out how to make sure we can accommodate all of our customers .

Speaker #4: I guess the good news here is that we're in a low demand period of of November . I mean , the high demand obviously is Thanksgiving .

Speaker #4: So I think we'll be able to accommodate everyone . And so I would actually expect on balance , this is probably a positive , just simply because of the rasam that we're going to generate on on less flights .

Speaker #4: But I think that the customer disruption is more my , my larger concern . But I don't see this being a major impact to us .

Speaker #9: Okay . Got it . That's fair . And then as my follow up , Boeing , recently announced that is expecting certification of the Max ten next year .

Speaker #9: And with some aircraft in inventory that it already has , that is ready to be delivered upon certification . So assuming this does come to pass and this happens in 26 and the legacies get hold of this aircraft , they're likely to use this are this higher gauge asset to expand , you know , the basic economy type of operating which directly competes with the product that you have in the marketplace .

Speaker #9: So the question then is: how much of a risk does this present to Frontier next year and beyond? And what would you do to counter this risk going forward?

Speaker #4: Thank you . I think the main I think the main risk is probably anyone holding the residual value of a 7700 . I don't think it's a challenge to us .

Speaker #4: I think if you look at the situation , we see less capacity in our markets , not more . And I don't see basic economy improving .

Speaker #4: I mean , I mean , just think about that . I'm relatively decent at math . It doesn't improve your margins to expand .

Speaker #4: Basic economy , selling product below your cost . So I don't think that's going to be a major opportunity . You've seen across the industry , domestic profits have been under pressure .

Speaker #4: So I think that , you know , I think cooler heads are going to prevail on capacity over the next year . This may enable them to be be more efficient .

Speaker #4: But I think you actually see the lesser efficient aircraft leave the United States .

Speaker #9: Got it . Thanks for that and good luck with the rest of the year .

Speaker #4: Thanks . Thanks for thanks for being on .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays . Your line is now open .

Speaker #10: A comrades . Good afternoon and thanks for taking the question from the People's Commune of New York . Appreciate it . Very well .

Speaker #10: There is going to be free bus travel here . So I don't know . That might be a competitive mode . Looking forward .

Speaker #10: But Barry , in all seriousness , can you talk to how spirit cutting in November has maybe changed the pricing dynamic here ? Closer in on the fourth quarter ?

Speaker #10: Because I suspect that there were they were pretty close in booked to begin with .

Speaker #4: Yeah , I think look , I mean , look , we were really excited . I would say two months ago when , you know , things started , you know , changing over there .

Speaker #4: And we started seeing some , some book away and then you got to , I guess probably second week of September and unfortunately , that what we , what we believe is their book away caused them to drop their fares dramatically .

Speaker #4: And so we saw a significant drop to fares that had been improving , by the way . I mean , on our last call , we were staring at staring at advance yields going up considerably year over year .

Speaker #4: And then they went down . Now we're getting into a better phase . So so the fares are now restoring it did do damage to September and again to October .

Speaker #4: But we're getting into the capacity cut phase . And I think this this will give a sugar high to them for ransom . Right .

Speaker #4: Because they would consolidate flights . But it's starting to show up and be a meaningful to us . And I don't think it's going to benefit this quarter that much .

Speaker #4: But like this morning , we just we haven't had a chance to to flow it through . But they pulled out of another five cities .

Speaker #4: So I expect that this continues to improve . And we think it's pretty meaningful where they have cut . We've seen , you know , high single digits or plus improvements where they're cutting .

Speaker #4: So this is going to continue I think this is going to be really meaningful for frontier . .

Speaker #10: Okay I appreciate that response . And you guys talked a lot about loyalty on this call . I mean , can you give us your initial impact from southwest maybe recently .

Speaker #10: And more importantly , especially as you look to launch first class , like , are you seeing more momentum on that angle ?

Speaker #4: Yes . So look , I mean , we haven't gotten the benefit of first class yet , but we'll work backwards from your question .

Speaker #4: And and Jimmy or Bobby can can can chime in , but first class is going to be wildly accretive . Right . Because we haven't had that product .

Speaker #4: And we know the demand is there. So that's going to be worth several points next year. But I think if you look at the loyalty, there's no real benefit.

Speaker #4: I don't think necessarily from southwest . It's mainly all the investments we've made over the last year , I don't know , Bob , if you want to kind of add to that .

Speaker #6: Yeah . Hey , how's it going ? This is Bobby . So we talked about what we added quite a bit in terms of , you know , benefits that we've had over the past really year and a half , two years .

Speaker #6: A lot of that actually kind of building up to this past year , as well as we transformed what we're providing some of the elite tiers , the accessibility we're providing that .

Speaker #6: So look , in the end , we've created a program that is the most rewarding in the sky . And it is something where people can get to these elite tiers much faster than you see with other airlines .

Speaker #6: They actually are getting those benefits . You know , where it might be more difficult to see those at other airlines as well .

Speaker #6: You know , we've talked before . You get a much higher conversion rate on on seat upgrades at 80% on our top tiers .

Speaker #6: They're getting 80% upgrades to our top premium seat upgrade there . So they're also getting free bags . And we've added free companions on not only the higher elite tiers , but also that's unlimited companion travel , but also on the credit card .

Speaker #6: You're getting companion passes as you spend and hit certain milestones . So just a lot that we've we've put into this and you're seeing the engagement there .

Speaker #6: Look , you have a lot of people out there that are disenfranchised with their other programs , whether those are airlines or or other types of travel programs or other credit cards .

Speaker #6: We're providing an incredible value there . And you're seeing people not only engage in terms of acquisition , but also spend . I mean , spend was up tremendously year over year because people are wanting to move up that ladder in terms of elite status , because they see the benefits that they're getting .

Speaker #4: And I would just add , I mean , and , Brandon , you're old enough to remember , I mean , the Starwood program , you know , in the 2000 was just amazing .

Speaker #4: And they kind of used their their costs and so forth to , to build that loyalty and that credit card was one of the consistently one of the top ranked cards .

Speaker #4: And , and now that we've kind of got it underway , we sat down a year and a half or two years ago and said , you know , we've got the lowest costs .

Speaker #4: We should be able to provide the most value in loyalty . And so we have made methodical changes over the last year , year and a half , as Bobby mentioned .

Speaker #4: And now we're starting to see the benefits of that . And it's early . But you know , when you see 40% jump to the loyalty ecosystem year over year , we're on a track .

Speaker #4: And so , you know , we're doing in the seven seven and a half dollar range . And and we could see that doubling in pretty short order .

Speaker #4: So, we're pretty excited about it. I think it's one of the key pillars to getting back to sustainable margins. But it's a big part of what we're doing.

Speaker #4: And and the savings that people get are real . I mean , it's thousands of dollars a year that you can save if you use this card and if and to Bobby's point , when he mentioned , you know , kind of the disenfranchised , what we're seeing is the customer that just flies a couple times a year on one of the big the big airlines , they don't have they don't have the actual tier that they need to get really upgraded .

Speaker #4: Their number 36 on the upgrade list , they never get upgraded . And so when they take that spend and put it on our card , they actually get rewarded with real loyalty .

Speaker #4: They get real upgrades and that upgrade not going to be up front . Plus next year it's going to be first class . So so I think that we've just started we're kind of in the first first inning or two , but we are going to close the gap on loyalty revenues with the big guys , and this is going to be a material part of our discussions .

Speaker #4: I think in the quarters to come . .

Speaker #6: And just on the just a quick add to on first class , I mean , obviously we're going to be be selling that and we anticipate a variety of the income coming from just people buying it outright .

Speaker #6: But that is a a product that again , those disenfranchised customers with other programs have the opportunity to get upgraded to that they would never see .

Speaker #6: And with us , they will be able to see that at at a much lower rate . Therefore they'll get it faster . So we're excited about that .

Speaker #10: Thanks both . And number 36 on the upgrade list . Sounds good to me . I'm usually way behind that . So thanks guys .

Speaker #4: Yeah .

Speaker #2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Savi Smith of Raymond James. Your line is open.

Speaker #11: Hey , guys , this is Carter on for Savi . I was wondering what you guys are seeing on the price on pricing in your spirit , overlap markets relative to your other markets .

Speaker #11: More broadly . And are you seeing anything different in Fort Lauderdale where you guys most recently added service ?

Speaker #4: Yeah . Look , I mean , I think I mentioned this a while ago , we saw pricing go down after they filed .

Speaker #4: We've seen that kind of recover now and we've seen our pricing . Obviously , you know , go up in those markets . So I wouldn't say it's over .

Speaker #4: But and then obviously they're trimming capacity and pulling out . So there is no more pricing in some of those . So I think it's stabilized .

Speaker #11: Got it . Thanks . And then just for my follow up , I want to clarify . Does your earlier comment about returning to growth in 2026 mean you're no longer planning on having flattish capacity through the first half of 26 , or is that more of just a comment of returning to growth in the back half ?

Speaker #4: It's a very dynamic situation right now . I mean , we're watching the competitive situation and , you know , based on that , how that plays out , we have the ability to flex up or down , but , you know , we we believe there will be opportunities for us in our cost structure to kind of replace that capacity in several places .

Speaker #4: And if so , that will dictate growth . But it's , you know , we'll update everybody by Q1 . And our next call because I think most of this , we believe most of this should be sorted out by then .

Speaker #11: Got it. Thanks, guys.

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Michael Lindenberg of Deutsche Bank . Your line is open .

Speaker #12: Oh hi . Yeah . This is Shannen Doherty on for Mike . Thanks for taking my questions Barry . You know , earlier this year we were talking about double digit margins .

Speaker #12: By the summer of 25 . Obviously Liberation Day threw monkey wrench into that plan . But do you see a path back to double digit margins in 26 with the current competitive landscape ?

Speaker #12: And if so , can you help us ? Help us there from today ?

Speaker #4: Well , look , I mean , we didn't plan on all of the things that happened in the turmoil in the front half this year and what has happened .

Speaker #4: But I can tell you that that as far as our our pillars of , kind of paths back to sustainable profitability , look , I think doubling our loyalty revenues from where it is , introducing first class , getting that premium , getting our fair share of that premium , as well as the fair share of loyalty .

Speaker #4: I think the competitive capacity reduction , as we've talked about , I mean , that's going to be a huge tailwind for us going into next year , and then we're going to double down on our costs .

Speaker #4: I know everybody kind of accepts the inflation , but we're going to double down . We hope to have , you know , all that ready to lay out at the next call .

Speaker #4: But you're going to see kind of wave of of us kind of pushing , pushing further down on cost , ensure that we maintain a wide margin of cost advantage versus the industry .

Speaker #4: another

Speaker #4: And we're going to continue to improve our operations . Our complaints are down dramatically year over year . We continue to be kind of 30 , 40% down every month , year over year and complaints .

Speaker #4: And that's that's that's kind of tied to what's happened with our improvement in the operations . So I'm not going to declare the day we're going to we're going to get back to any , any margin target .

Speaker #4: But I can tell you that there's plenty of fundamentals that are in our favor at this point .

Speaker #12: Thanks for that . And maybe a follow up on thinking about growth for next year . Well , spirit cutting deeper than 20% next year .

Speaker #12: Maybe a lot more . Be the determining

Speaker #12: growth . Again . I mean , clearly you are carrying a lot of extra costs taking down aircraft utilization , and you want to get back to growth .

Speaker #12: So I'm just trying to figure out what gets you there .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Shannon , it's Jimmy here . Look , we we're watching what's happening in terms of of network deployment across the industry , including spirit at the moment .

Speaker #5: And there's certainly opportunities that are existing . You've seen us launch some stuff across the United States in the last couple of months that fill in for some capacity that we think is going to be adjusted in their network , whether that drives material growth next year or not .

Speaker #5: We we don't know . We've got to see how things develop in the next 2 or 3 months . Hence we we've we're kind of deferring to the next earnings call to give you an insight into , into our growth .

Speaker #5: But clearly we have substantial body of aircraft that we can deploy to infill for any disruptive capacity that comes out of the marketplace in the next couple of months .

Speaker #5: And so we're we're positioned for that . As I said in the last earnings call , it does take time from a growth perspective .

Speaker #5: To hire and train pilots and get them deployed in our network . And that's typically a 6 to 8 month process . And so any meaningful growth will occur .

Speaker #5: You know , sometime Q2 or Q3 or Q4 next year , depending on on our view over the next couple of months on what we want to do in terms of growing the airline into opportunities that that that crop up .

Speaker #2: Thank you one moment for our next question . Our next question comes from Dwayne Wirth of Evercore ISI .

Speaker #13: Hey , thank you . Just one question for me , for the team . How has your thinking about consolidation of the Ulcc sector evolved or changed over the last 90 days ?

Speaker #4: Good to hear from you , Dwayne . I don't know that it's changed . I think that I think we're going to see and I've said this before , I think you're going to see less capacity in the United States .

Speaker #4: And I don't know that that's a US ulcc thing . I think it's just a domestic capacity thing . And I think it'll be far beyond just the ulcc space .

Speaker #4: I think you're going to see a lot less seats . Consolidation is one of the the mechanisms to to help facilitate that . But it's not the only way to get there .

Speaker #4: But I do think there'll be less seats . There's another carrier that is not ulcc that that we suspect is going to shrink a considerable amount over the next year .

Speaker #4: So, I think a seat is a seat. And the more that go out, it's probably constructive to the supply and demand balance as we move into 2026.

Speaker #13: Okay . Thanks .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research . Your line is open .

Speaker #14: Hey , this is Ryan Capozzi on for Scott . So aircraft utilization has been down pretty significantly so far this year . Just curious how we should think about utilization levels into four .

Speaker #14: Q and really more so into next year .

Speaker #7: Yeah , I mean , from a utilization standpoint , I mean , I think , you know , to Jimmy's point , when you look at , you know , the lead time , that's needed to to ramp that up , I mean , from the environment that we sit in today , you know , the overall macro environment , you know , I think you'll see , you know , consistency .

Speaker #7: You know , and where we've been , you know , Q3 to Q4 from a utilization standpoint . But then as both Jimmy and Barry have mentioned , as you look into 26 , you know , we need to , you know , evaluate what that landscape looks like and how we want to , you know , move forward with utilization .

Speaker #7: Obviously , you know , the higher able to drive that , you know , that brings down unit costs . So there's positive there .

Speaker #7: But you just need to balance that with the larger macro .

Speaker #5: Yeah. And just to give a little context, there are two things going on with the fleet. One is that you have a delivery order book that can provide growth.

Speaker #5: And then you can also utilize your assets more . And what we've been doing in the last 8 to 9 months is reducing some utilization on the on the asset base .

Speaker #5: What you're likely to see as you progress through next year is growth . More on peak days than off peak days . And through new aircraft deliveries , which is which is which is healthy growth coming into the into the business , whether we choose to do higher utilization or not , that's something that we have to consider going into next year to see where the competitive capacity environment looks .

Speaker #14: Got it . I appreciate the color there . And then I guess on competitive capacity , I think you you had mentioned two percentage points of improvement in for Q any sense of what level of reductions you're expecting in one Q here ?

Speaker #5: We look , we haven't quantified the level of reductions that we expect as people solidify their schedules going into Q1 . We'll have more of an insight into that in the coming month or two .

Speaker #5: You know .

Speaker #2: Thank you . One moment for our next question . Our next question comes from Jamie Baker of JP Morgan securities . Your line is now open .

Speaker #15: Hey , good afternoon . This is James on for Jamie . A lot of questions on domestic capacity . Maybe just a question on the international routes .

Speaker #15: You guys announced and what you're seeing there , particularly in how rasam is trending into four . Q and 2026 .

Speaker #6: Yeah , I mean so just you're talking about the fourth , fourth quarter starts . We've been seeing some some pretty good results .

Speaker #6: Happy with the new route specifically as you brought up within the Latin America kind of VFR or Latin VFR routes that are launching sort of in the holiday Christmas .

Speaker #6: Three Kings peak period . So pretty excited about the results that we've been seeing so far .

Speaker #15: Okay . Got it . And then for my second question , you know , we're seeing smaller regional airlines , you know , enter the market .

Speaker #15: I'm just in the past few years. Are you seeing any particularly in the routes that maybe Spirit exited? Are you seeing any of those airlines come in to fill that capacity that you're now competing with?

Speaker #4: No , we're not really seeing that . I mean , look , I think the landscape has become pretty clear . I mean , frontier is , is has been the one to outplay and outlast .

Speaker #4: And so I don't think that I don't see a new entrant trying to come in on some of the things that we're doing .

Speaker #15: Okay . Thank you .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Tom Fitzgerald of TD Cohen . Your line is open .

Speaker #16: Hi , everyone . Thanks so much for the time . I'm curious on the loyalty program , if you're where you're seeing the most strength in signups , whether it's just kind of any place where you have where you have a base or a decent enough schedule density , if there's particular markets that stand out .

Speaker #4: Yeah . Look , it's obviously , you know , where we have bases , we've got 13 bases and then we've got , you know , large concentrations , right .

Speaker #4: In other cities . Raleigh , Baltimore , New York and so forth . But I mean , it's where you would expect I mean , customers , you've got to be able to earn it .

Speaker #4: And when you fly and you've got to be able to use it . So it kind of fits our geography . But I think the the big thing that's changed , I mean , obviously to see this kind of growth when we're not actually growing the airline right now is actually really impressive .

Speaker #6: Yeah . I mean , to echo what Barry said , you're going to see it where there's relevance on both the network and the program and where you can , you know , you're looking for aspirational opportunities where you can go and then , frankly , the the benefits you can get from that .

Speaker #6: And we're , we're hitting on all those things .

Speaker #16: Thanks so much . That's really helpful . And then just curious on on first class seating as you kind of just keep going upmarket .

Speaker #16: Is there do you assume any time for that those products to mature in the market , or do you think it away ? And I'm wondering if there's any kind of if you're upgrading a lot at the beginning to kind of entice people to get them familiar with the product .

Speaker #16: If then , you know , shows up in the revenue . But if of it's upgrades or , you know , if there's like a non-cash component .

Speaker #16: If then , you know , shows up in the revenue . But if hits right

Speaker #16: Thanks again for the time.

Speaker #4: Yeah , thanks . So , so look , I mean , we're not expecting it to go to full maturity . That could take honestly years .

Speaker #4: I mean but you're going to see an immediate benefit in the product moving to first from just having upfront . Plus it took us about a year for upfront .

Speaker #4: Plus , at first a lot of people got it for free and so forth . And our and our top elites get it .

Speaker #4: Will get upgraded into it , which is what helps kind of feed the the loyalty asset ecosystem . But you know , you're going to mature as more people figure it out .

Speaker #4: I mean , at the end of the day , we've observed in the United States a huge change

Speaker #4: in the appetite for leisure customers to pay for first class seats and we believe that given our it's a lot cost structure , we can deliver a first class seat cheaper than anyone .

Speaker #4: And so we're going to obviously benefit from not only having a premium product , but it's going to be priced at a level that you won't see for the big guys .

Speaker #4: So I mean , I wouldn't be surprised that that we're going to be priced under a premium economy seat . In many cases .

Speaker #4: But yet for us , I could double the revenue we're getting per passenger . So it's great for us . And I think it's going to be great for consumers .

Speaker #4: But it could take , you know , you know , 1 to 3 years to get reach full maturity . But it'll be huge .

Speaker #4: I think it's going to be huge . Not just for our kind of our revenue on board , but also in the credit card , because , you know , at the end of the day , I mean , that frustration about people getting upgraded at the big airlines , you know , you're going to get real value with frontier with that product , but it'll take time .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global . Your line is open .

Speaker #17: Oh , hey . Good afternoon guys . Thanks for the time here . I just have two house cleaning questions and then one other question just following up on Dwayne's .

Speaker #17: But the house cleaning questions , it looks like full time equivalents are down 6% year over year . But unit labor costs are up 10% .

Speaker #17: So I'm just wondering if you can square that dynamic . And I guess what I'm really wondering here is if it's just the beginning .

Speaker #17: At the beginning of sort of unit cost de-risking for future labor deals , and then the second house cleaning question is what percent of the network , you know , do you expect will be premium ized , you know , so to speak , by year end , 26 .

Speaker #4: Well , there's several things going on on the on the salary , wage and benefits . I mean , we we stopped hiring flight attendants and what happens when you're looking at in your numbers ?

Speaker #4: We're actually largely , you know , kind of right sized , I guess , in the flight sense . But we carried a lot , you know , hundreds and hundreds of extra pilots .

Speaker #4: So I think it's a little I think that's I think it's just a that's just a mathematical nuance . As we get back to hiring flight attendants as an example , I think you'll see see the numerator and denominator change and I'm sorry , what was the second question .

Speaker #17: Just the percent of the network that will be premium ized by year end 26 .

Speaker #4: Okay . Well , 100% of the fleet will actually have have the first class product . And look , it's eight seats . We've got 202 , give or take .

Speaker #4: I mean , it's gonna be 4% of your seats . So it's pretty rough . It's pretty simple math , right ? If you take 4% of your seats and we end up getting paying paid close to double what we were getting on the others once this is rolling out , this is a material jump in your ASM .

Speaker #17: Yeah . Second question here . You know , just following up on on Dwayne's question . You know , some of spirits creditors are pushing their management team for , for a merger .

Speaker #17: And you know , frontier is the most one of the most logical airlines . Of course . And I guess , you know , just to to kind of push on that a little bit further is , has that ship sailed as far as frontier is concerned ?

Speaker #17: Just given the network overlap or , or is that I guess my question really is if if that were to become a possibility at some point in the future , is that network overlap manageable , say , with carve outs or gate givebacks ?

Speaker #4: I'm not going to comment on on merger . We've we spent a lot of time on this in the past . I've spoken about it a lot .

Speaker #4: We're not going to comment on it . I'll go back to we see significant opportunity for frontier focusing on our business and what we see is , is , is pretty significant tailwinds to our business due to competitive capacity .

Speaker #4: And we don't see that changing . We've not seen anything that's going to change that opinion . And again , every day it seems to get better for us .

Speaker #4: I mean , they just closed another five cities or announced closing another five cities today , including Phoenix , Saint Louis , Milwaukee .

Speaker #4: So these are all key cities for frontier . So , you know , we see pretty good upside . But we're we're we're not talking about a merger .

Speaker #17: Yeah . Understood . Thanks so much .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Our next question comes from Kristopher Stephanopoulos of SIG . Your line is open .

Speaker #18: Good afternoon . Thanks for taking my question , Barry . I wanted to ask for an update on the revenue initiatives because there's a lot going on here .

Speaker #18: I heard 750 and packs per passenger in the third quarter , but the comment you made two questions ago , I think it was first class priced .

Speaker #18: I think you gave a price point or you quantified a certain percentage below a basic , basic economy seat or what I took to be an entry level product versus I'm assuming network peers .

Speaker #4: Could you premium I said premium economy on one of the big airlines . Not basic .

Speaker #18: Okay , okay . Maybe you know , I think that's an interesting point . If you could speak to is that in select markets .

Speaker #18: And I think you said that's going to take 2 to 3 years to to mature . I think that's that's an important point .

Speaker #18: And one that I hope you could give some more .

Speaker #4: Comment . I think we'll get somewhere between 60 to 80% of the benefit within the first year . Right ? I think for it to fully mature , we'll take you a few years .

Speaker #4: But it will be it will be additive , incremental . It will be positive ROI within months . I mean , and so and when you think about the pricing , I'll just go back to the pricing .

Speaker #4: I mean , I think if you look where we fly today , it's not uncommon for us to have a , you know , a $49 fare .

Speaker #4: Maybe the legacy has got a 69 , $79 basic economy . But then their $400 or $500 for first class . And so I think you could see us easily being in that 200 to 250 range for first class .

Speaker #4: And it's going to be a smack and deal for , for anybody that wants to fly first class . But it's going to be a huge improvement .

Speaker #4: I mean , we're going to take we're going to take four seats off the plane that we're actually the lowest . You know , fares that we were selling .

Speaker #4: And they're now going to become the highest fares we're selling. That's a huge move on your part when you do something like that.

Speaker #4: So this will be a massive improvement to us . But we I mean look the pricing is going to be dynamic by route by day .

Speaker #4: And depending upon the situation .

Speaker #18: Okay . Great . Thank you . And the comment on the down to competitive capacity for the fourth quarter , I'm guessing that's that's your system or select routes .

Speaker #18: And then if there are any markets where you're seeing I guess better or worse , insofar as additions or deletions from competitors . Thanks .

Speaker #4: Yeah . I mean , there there's a number of routes where I mean , Jimmy spoke about this in his prepared remarks , but Jimmy , I don't know if you want to remind him of the numbers there .

Speaker #5: Yeah , we've had we've seen a significant change in two areas . One is where they've exited markets . And so we've seen them exit about 36 routes that that overlap with us .

Speaker #5: And we've also seen a significant reduction in frequencies about 30% across 41 other markets . So so it's a considerable change in overlap capacity between US and spirit and it's across the system in a lot of cases .

Speaker #18: Okay .

Speaker #5: Thank you . But a predominance , particularly in the West . .

Speaker #18: Great . Thank you .

Speaker #2: Thank you I am showing no further questions at this time . I would now like to turn it back to the chief Executive Officer , Barry Biffle , for closing remarks .

Speaker #4: I want to thank everybody for calling in . We're really excited about the future and things have really kind of turned around from a foundational perspective .

Speaker #4: So I look forward to updating you again and talking to you again in the new year .