Q3 2025 Vivid Seats Inc Earnings Call
Speaker #1: The .
Speaker #2: Good morning and welcome to the Vivid Seats Inc third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference call . Following management prepared remarks , we will open the call for Q&A .
Speaker #2: I would now like to turn the call over to Kate Africk .
Speaker #3: Good morning and welcome to Vivid Seats Inc third quarter 2025 Earnings Conference call . I am Kate Africk , Head of Investor Relations at Vivid Seats Inc .
Speaker #3: This morning we issued our third quarter financial results . The press release , as well as supplemental earnings slides are available on the Investor Relations page of our website at Vivid Seats Inc .
Speaker #3: During the course of today's call , we may make forward looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws . These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially , including the risks and uncertainties described in our earnings press release .
Speaker #3: Our most recent annual Report on Form 10-K , our subsequent quarterly Reports on Form 10-q and our other filings with the SEC . On today's call , we will refer to adjusted EBITDA , which is a non-GAAP financial measure that provides useful information for investors .
Speaker #3: A reconciliation of this non-GAAP financial measure to its corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings press release and supplemental earnings slides this morning .
Speaker #3: We also announced a leadership transition that is effective today . Lawrence Fey , who has served as chief financial officer since 2020 , will succeed Stanley Chia as chief executive officer .
Speaker #3: Additionally , Ted Picus , who has served as chief accounting officer since 2022 , has been appointed as interim chief financial officer until a successor is identified .
Speaker #3: Accordingly Ted are joining me today on the call with Larry's extensive history with Vivid Seats Inc dating back to 2017 , the Vivid Seats Inc board believes he is uniquely qualified to navigate the evolving industry environment and steer the company back to growth .
Speaker #3: Larry will share more detail on his vision for Vivid Seats Inc next chapter today , and now I would like to turn the call over to Larry .
Speaker #4: Good morning , everyone , and thank you for joining us today . First , I would like to discuss the leadership transition and express my gratitude to Stan for his leadership and service over the last seven years .
Speaker #4: His accomplishments include successfully leading Vivid Seats Inc through a global pandemic , bringing vivid seats to the public markets , and launching key innovations such as the vivid seats reward program , which provides a foundation on which we will continue to build as we deliver a unique and leading value proposition to our customers .
Speaker #4: I recognize the responsibility of this role and will look to take decisive action to reverse recent trends and build a resilient business well positioned for long term success .
Speaker #4: The core pillars of our strategy start with the foundational advantages that have been in place at Vivid Seats for years , build from there .
Speaker #4: There is much work to be done , but the foundation to return to profitable growth is in place and our path forward is clear .
Speaker #4: Vivid seats has long been known for its leading tech capabilities , unique data and focus on efficiency . In and years , as paid search has become more competitive and customer acquisition economics have become strained .
Speaker #4: So has increasingly invested in its app , with a focus on building a loyal and recurring customer base . We are now increasing our focus and investment in delivering a leading value proposition to our customers , alongside our loyalty program , which rewards recent redeemable in the app .
Speaker #4: Late in the third quarter , we launched our lowest price guarantee . Also in the app , we believe the combination of our lowest price guarantee and our loyalty program represents the most compelling value proposition in the industry , and we are already seeing positive responses from our customers with our enhanced value proposition , we expect to see a growing number of app users and resulting transactions .
Speaker #4: Our app users return more often , convert at a higher rate , and touch performance marketing channels less over time . As our volume increasingly moves into the app .
Speaker #4: Our performance will be increasingly insulated from the heightened competitiveness we have seen in performance marketing channels in recent years . Further , we believe that information transparency will only increase as AI proliferates and impacts the way consumers interact with brands across the internet .
Speaker #4: It will take time to build comprehensive awareness of our enhanced app value proposition , but we are confident we will disproportionately benefit as A.I.
Speaker #4: reshapes consumer discovery and decision making . As we match consumer demand with the most compelling value in the industry . One of our initial efforts to build awareness of our app value proposition is our recently renewed partnership with ESPN .
Speaker #4: With ESPN , we have launched a national marketing campaign on Disney streaming , which is reaching more than 127 million global subscribers across over 700 live sports events .
Speaker #4: Monthly . We are excited to see how fans respond to our new offering as awareness continues to build . We believe our investments in delivering a leading value proposition will drive order , volume but reduce our take rates .
Speaker #4: Funding these investments into sustainable manner will require a commitment to operating the most efficient platform and ticketing . We will focus on operating as a lean and agile organization enabled by powerful technology and unique data .
Speaker #4: We announced the cost reduction program last quarter , and we are now more than doubling our fixed cost reduction target from 25 million to 60 million .
Speaker #4: We have made substantial progress towards our updated target with savings spanning fixed marketing , G&A and stock based compensation . Both these savings and our considerable reinvestment in our app value proposition are reflected in our initial 2026 guidance .
Speaker #4: Continuing with our theme of driving efficiency through clear focus , we executed our corporate simplification Agreement , which included the termination of our tax receivable agreement and the collapse of our dual class share structure .
Speaker #4: Early in the fourth quarter . The corporate simplification will yield substantial immediate and ongoing savings as part of the termination , we issued approximately 400,000 class A shares to the former Tra parties .
Speaker #4: In return , we will avoid $6 million of cash . Tra payments . Otherwise due in Q1 2026 , while capturing up to $180 million of lifetime tax savings , subject to generating sufficient profitability .
Speaker #4: In addition , by simplifying our structure , we expect to save approximately $1 million per year from reduced financial reporting and compliance costs , while also removing tax inefficiencies in our structure .
Speaker #4: At current levels of profitability , we anticipate our annual cash income taxes to be approximately $3 million . The savings between our cost reduction program and corporate simplification will create a more focused and agile organization , one that can invest strategically for growth while maintaining discipline and profitability .
Speaker #4: Next , I'll address trends in our third quarter results , which we believe validate our path forward and underpin our initial 2026 outlook , which Ted will provide .
Speaker #4: While private label remains under pressure , we are encouraged to see stabilization and early signs of momentum across our owned properties against a flat , sequential industry backdrop .
Speaker #4: Vivid Seats Inc Vegas.com delivered sequential growth , while the Vivid Seats delivered double digit sequential growth and return to year over year growth .
Speaker #4: This is a direct result of our ongoing investment in product development and our enhanced value proposition . As we look to the fourth quarter and into 2026 , there are no quick fixes , but our priorities are clear .
Speaker #4: We are committed to improving our financial performance by leveraging Vivid Seats Inc foundational advantages , including leading technology , unique data , best in class efficiency , and continued investment into a unique and differentiated value proposition .
Speaker #4: Now I'll turn it to Ted to discuss the quarter and financial outlook in more detail . As we mentioned earlier , Ted , our Chief accounting officer , will take on the role of Interim Chief Financial Officer Ted has been at Vividseats leading our accounting function for more than a decade .
Speaker #4: I have full confidence in Ted and am glad to have him step into the interim CFO role as we manage our leadership transition .
Speaker #5: Thank you Larry , and hello everyone . I am honored to be with you today and to assume this role during a transformational time for the business .
Speaker #5: Turning to our results , in the third quarter , we delivered $618 million of marketplace G.of 136 million of revenues and 5 million of adjusted EBITDA .
Speaker #5: These results reflect an intense competitive environment that impacted our private label business , which was also impacted by the loss of a large partner .
Speaker #5: We generated 618 million of marketplace GOF in Q3 , which was down 29% year over year . Total marketplace orders were also down 29% , with average order size flat .
Speaker #5: Looking at sequential trends compared to Q2 of this year , overall marketplace GOF was down 10% due to private label headwinds while owned property GOF increased in a flat , sequential industry environment .
Speaker #5: We generated 136 million of revenues in Q3 , down 27% year over year . Our Q3 marketplace take rate was 17.0% , down from 17.5% in Q3 2024 .
Speaker #5: We expect near-term take rates in 16% range . Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA was 5 million , down substantially from the prior year due to lower volume , lower take rates and negative operating leverage .
Speaker #5: We expect improved operating performance as we enter 2026 with the full benefit of our recent cost reductions . Next , I'll address our 2026 initial outlook with stabilizing owned property volumes .
Speaker #5: We expect 2026 marketplace GOF in the range of 2.2 to 2.6 billion at the midpoint . This assumes marketplace GOF roughly in line with our third quarter run rate .
Speaker #5: We intend to reinvest cost savings into our enhanced customer value proposition , and as such , currently anticipate 30 to 40 million of 2026 adjusted EBITDA .
Speaker #5: Our 2026 initial outlook assumes industry volumes are flat year over year , as the core concert on sale season , which provides supply visibility for the coming year , has yet to occur .
Speaker #5: We ended Q3 with $391 million of debt , 145 million of cash and net debt of 246 million , against a flat industry environment .
Speaker #5: We saw working capital continue to consume cash , but at a substantially lower level than seen the first half of the year . I'll now hand it back to Larry for concluding remarks .
Speaker #4: Thanks , Ted . Despite challenging year over year trends , the third quarter offered signs of stabilization , including sequential growth in owned property .
Speaker #4: GOF year over year growth in app GOF and substantial cost reduction progress from here , diligent execution is crucial , but we believe our investment into our app value proposition provides a clear path to return to growth .
Speaker #4: With that operator , let's open it up for questions .
Speaker #2: Thank you . As a reminder to ask a question , you will need to press star . Then the number one on your telephone keypad .
Speaker #2: And if you would like to withdraw your question , press star one . Again . We do request for today's session that you please limit to two questions only .
Speaker #2: We'll pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster . Your first question comes from the line of Cameron Manson Perrone with Morgan Stanley .
Speaker #2: Your line is open .
Speaker #6: Thanks . Morning . Thanks for taking the questions . And , Ted , welcome to the call . I guess the the first question is really just I'd like to hear a little bit more about what gives you confidence in issuing 26 guidance .
Speaker #6: This early , given the pressures that have existed in the business recently , I you know , I heard you on the stabilization front , but just , you know , a little bit more on what gives you kind of that increased visibility relative to the past .
Speaker #6: I think would be helpful . And then if you could just kind of try and help contextualize what's reflected in the high and low end of the guide for next year with regard to , you know , competitive environment and expectations in any other gating factors around , you know , what what would what would determine whether you shake out on the high or low end .
Speaker #6: Thanks . Yeah . Thanks .
Speaker #4: Cameron . Yeah , I think the the you've heard us say in the past that we prefer to give guidance on our Q4 call once the Q4 on sale calendar has run its course , as you'll have more industry visibility .
Speaker #4: And so the important caveat in the guidance we put forward , is it presumes a flat year over year industry outlook . And I think to your your question on what would govern the the low end versus the high end , I would start with , you know , the industry under indexes to to flat that would push you towards the low end if it overindexes or grows , that would push you towards the higher end .
Speaker #4: You know , we certainly saw the Live Nation commentary , which if you interpolate what they said , it feels like they're pointing towards another positive growth year in North America .
Speaker #4: So hopefully there is some conservatism built in . We'll learn more over the coming months . On exactly where the industry settles out , but tried to put a baseline that we think is is reasonably skewed to the cautious side of the spectrum .
Speaker #4: On on the industry performance , you know , why do we put guidance out ? Why do we have confidence ? I point to a , few elements .
Speaker #4: I think one , we obviously pulled 2025 guidance . So it's been a while since there's been a flag or a stake in the ground for folks to look at .
Speaker #4: You can see a number of changes playing out in Q3 where we've talked about our cost reduction initiatives . We talked about some of our reinvestment in our value proposition and lots of puts and takes .
Speaker #4: And rather than having there be a vacuum where people are waiting in suspense for for months on what the net of all of those are , we wanted to distill it down to a target , you know , probably goes with without saying if competition or competitive intensity , you know , reaches new highs , that will pressure .
Speaker #4: And if they abate , that will be a release valve relative to the range we put forward . But we've assumed essentially a broad continuation of the competitive intensity we've seen in the second half of 2025 .
Speaker #6: Got it . That's all clear . And helpful . Thanks , Larry . You .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Dan Kurnos with Benchmark Company . Your line is open .
Speaker #7: Yeah . Thanks . Good morning . Larry . I guess maybe just to double click on the leadership transition . Obviously Dan had a lot of digital experience from his history .
Speaker #7: So I guess maybe why now make this move ? If you could just give us some color on the thought process . And obviously to be clear here , I think you're eminently qualified to lead the company .
Speaker #7: Larry . I just would be helpful to get sort of some of the thought process on the timing and then , you know , in , an agentic world , you talked about discovery with OpenAI .
Speaker #7: If you're going to push app , which is fine , everyone else is putting their app into OpenAI for discoverability . So , you know , I don't know what your thoughts are about that given some of the puts and takes on demand .
Speaker #7: Gen and OpenAI potentially becoming the source of demand gen . But just help us think about your willingness to increase visibility via that channel and other ways that you might increase the visibility of the value prop .
Speaker #7: Thank you .
Speaker #4: Yeah . Thanks , Dan . You know , I I'd start with it . It the the thanks to Stan of course were were sincere .
Speaker #4: Seven years was a great run . I think it was just reaching a a time for , for a shift and you know , preparing the business for the , you know , efficiency push that that we're embarking on in the near term .
Speaker #4: Yeah . To the second question , I think you touched on a theme that is is spot on , you know , yes , we're pushing on app and I almost think of the , the customer universe as two buckets .
Speaker #4: Right . There's the new customer acquisition and there's a competitive dynamic around that . And then there's , you know , the folks who have already done their research and made informed decisions around which marketplaces they buy from or which marketplaces they consider , and that generally occurs in the in the app where I think there could be a really interesting blurring of those lines or fusion of the two as we move forward .
Speaker #4: You know , if one of the fundamental tenets of AI is increasing information synthesis , increasing information transparency as we increasingly place the best value proposition out into the ether , we then , of course , have an obligation to make sure that value proposition is digestible by this .
Speaker #4: These new AI platforms that are looking for all of the best information to synthesize and distill for customers . But but you better have something that's compelling , right ?
Speaker #4: If they do their job and put forward the best value proposition , you better be front of the line . And so that's where we're going with with the app .
Speaker #4: I think in the near term , while we wait for , you know , the commerce portion of the AI , disruption to fully arrive , we're going to continue continue focusing on retaining our customers in the app ecosystem .
Speaker #4: And then we think there's opportunity coming on that customer acquisition as the technology format evolves .
Speaker #7: Great . Thanks , Larry . I appreciate the color .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Maria Ripps with Canaccord Genuity . Your line is open .
Speaker #8: Great . Good morning and thanks for taking my questions . And Larry and Ted , congrats on the transition . Can you maybe share a little bit more color on the competitive backdrop right now ?
Speaker #8: Are you seeing any early signs that maybe some of the competitors in the space are starting to focus more on profitability ?
Speaker #4: Yeah . Thanks , Maria . You know , we've we've talked in the past a bit about ebbs and flows and it can be a little dangerous to extrapolate , you know , short term behavior and assume it continues indefinitely .
Speaker #4: But I would say , you know , broadly aligning with call it changes in corporate status . We have seen a shift in competitive posture .
Speaker #4: You know , it was a fairly methodical increase in share that we saw from StubHub over the last couple of years . You know , common ways .
Speaker #4: But it kind of went one direction . And we've actually seen that reverse and roll over in September and October . Where they're now down year over year on share .
Speaker #4: And I think that is directly tied to what we perceive as a shift in marketing aggressiveness . You know , the magnitude obviously was enough to reverse that trend , but it wasn't , you know , like a reversion to 2022 or 2023 levels .
Speaker #4: And we , of course know that they reserve the right to change their mind and posture as we embark in a 2026 . But a notable change over the last .
Speaker #4: Call it 6 to 8 weeks .
Speaker #8: Got it . That's very helpful . And then any early thoughts you can share ? Sort of on quality of concert lineup in 2026 ?
Speaker #4: Yeah , we you know , I'd say continue to be looking to to Live Nation for the prospective on on what's coming . You know , I heard pretty positive commentary when I , when I read the release .
Speaker #4: You know , I think they touched on what clearly looks like positive North American growth askew towards larger venues thus far in the year .
Speaker #4: You know , you get into these year over year comparisons where timing just varies slightly year over year . But we're in the midst this year , Morgan Wallen just announced that I think will be one of the top tours of the year .
Speaker #4: We've seen several others . So at this point , I would say , you know , other than week to week variance , it looks like the the Live Nation commentary is flowing through .
Speaker #4: And what we're seeing .
Speaker #8: Got it . That's very helpful . Thank you so much .
Speaker #4: Thank .
Speaker #9: You .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Ryan Seidel with Craig-hallum . Your line is open .
Speaker #10: Hey good morning Larry . Ted , in response to the FTC lawsuit , Ticketmaster shutting down Trade Desk for concerts . They're also limiting Ticketmaster accounts even further , as it appears as they take more action on pricing .
Speaker #10: Curious your perspective on this ? Does this present an opportunity for vivid to take share on the POS side ? But at the same time , I guess the negative would be how much contraction and negative do you see from a supply standpoint in the secondary ticketing ?
Speaker #9: Yeah . Thanks , Ryan . I think .
Speaker #4: You framed it properly in that , you know , any disruption to trade Desk ? I think can only be a tailwind . And we think skybox will be waiting with open arms with its best in class capabilities to to support any customers who no longer have the full suite that they need to run their business and can only help our position .
Speaker #4: And then , as you said , you know , counterbalance , if there is , you know , additional pressure , I'd start from our fundamental view is that the vast majority of what drives this industry is a fundamental financial , well functioning financial market , right , where you have artists and teams who are looking to diversify risk .
Speaker #4: You have artists and teams who are looking to , offload risk well in advance of shows , and that there is a healthy , vibrant financial instrument via the secondary market that facilitates and benefits all parties to the extent folks are violating the rules of the game , they we have always said this .
Speaker #4: We continue to say it . We can , should , will support anything and everything that needs to be done to ensure folks do play by the proper rules as defined by the artists and the primary ticketing platforms .
Speaker #4: To the extent there are folks that are , I'm sure there are . Right . There's there's got to be a bad actor out there .
Speaker #4: To the extent those folks behaviors are forced to modify , I think what will be unknown and we'll find out as you all find out , does that contract a secondary market or does it just change the form where you now have increased fragmentation , where new , smaller sellers fill in the gap and the overall market opportunity remains the same .
Speaker #4: So we'll keep a close eye on it . But I do think , yeah , there's a positive tailwind on Trade Desk , a potential headwind .
Speaker #4: But but maybe not on the the change to Ticketmaster policies .
Speaker #10: Thanks , Larry . Then just the other hot topic kind of from an industry standpoint , direct issuance . Vivid has a smaller die type offering with college basketball crown but curious what you think about the ambitions of some of your peers in the space on this model , specifically .
Speaker #10: And then kind of to your point , on rules of the game , I guess contractually , etc. . I guess just your thoughts on direct issuance and the the viability of doing that in an accelerated way , going forward .
Speaker #10: And what that potentially means from a secondary marketplace standpoint , if that further limits the supply of brokers , play .
Speaker #4: Yeah , I think , you know , obviously strategies are subject to change . And so just reacting to the way we have seen the direct issuance opportunity defined to date , and maybe they change this , but to date it's been primarily focused as we understand it on on sold inventory .
Speaker #4: And so you can imagine , you know regular season baseball games less popular theatre shows where you have , well past the event going on sale , substantial available inventory available from the primary .
Speaker #4: And if that gets piped directly into a secondary marketplace , that would recommend would represent incremental supply . I think the threshold question for the robustness of that opportunity would start with is this a supply or demand constrained ?
Speaker #4: Industry ? And does the fact that you took an event that already had a decent amount of supply and made more available , will that stimulate incremental demand , or will it cannibalize the eyeballs that you are already getting on the site ?
Speaker #4: And to sell more , you still need to get additional eyeballs and spend the marketing dollars to bring them in . I think our our viewpoint has been that generally , this is a demand constrained exercise , not supply constrained .
Speaker #4: And in all but the the most rarefied air . Right . Like you could see Taylor Swift tickets really selling out . But most events , including World Series , Super Bowl .
Speaker #4: Right . There's there are tickets available all the way up until the event starts , even for the high profile events . So I'd say we're we're a bit more muted on our belief of the impact that could have , but you know , we certainly have heard that there the ambitions are are big .
Speaker #4: And so we'll keep a close eye .
Speaker #10: Thanks , Larry . Good luck guys .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Ralph Chocolate with William Blair . Your line is open .
Speaker #11: Good morning . Thanks for taking the question , Larry . I just kind of want to circle back on on the sort of driving more awareness of the app and sort of the efforts there .
Speaker #11: I know you talked about having ESPN as a partner to do that , which obviously a great partner to have there , but maybe you could just sort of provide a little bit more color how you drive more direct traffic here and build more awareness .
Speaker #11: And would you be contemplating , you know , potentially like a marketing campaign or other efforts to grow more awareness , to go direct to that ?
Speaker #11: Thank you .
Speaker #4: Yeah , thanks , Ralph . You know , I think we're doing what I would call our brand Marketing Surge via ESPN . That is going to be concentrated in the near term , you know , kind of throughout Q4 , which is peak sports season .
Speaker #4: You know , I think this is an industry where there's been many attempts to do broad based brand marketing , and it is challenging to to prove compelling ROI from that .
Speaker #4: So I don't think we're going to , you know , reverse course and jump headfirst back into broad brand marketing . I think we're going to continue to focus on thoughtful , different slices of call it more targeted , performance based metrics .
Speaker #4: You know , one of the advantages we have foundational strengths we have is we've been one of the leading marketplaces for a long time .
Speaker #4: And as a result , we've sold a lot of tickets to a lot of people . And we have a really robust existing user base , really robust CRM database .
Speaker #4: And so a lot of our effort has been increasing our personalization , improving the nature of our messaging . And now when we're delivering a message with a fundamentally improved value proposition , I think that leads to more engagement across that existing user base .
Speaker #4: And then continuing as people , you know , we acquire them on the web , making them immediately aware of what awaits if if they trusted us enough to buy on the web .
Speaker #4: That's wonderful . And we have perks that would compel them to come back to the app and making sure that that hyper addressable audience gets made fully aware of the proposition .
Speaker #4: Those are the two major buckets I think we'll be focusing on in the near term .
Speaker #11: Okay . Great . Thanks , Larry .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Steven McDermott with Bank of America . Your line is open .
Speaker #12: Hey . Good morning and thank you for taking my question . Just two quick ones . Firstly for 2026 , what World Cup assumptions are kind of built into that outlook .
Speaker #4: Yeah , we essentially have not assumed a meaningful impact from World Cup . I think that is primarily due to two things . One , there's not a lot of precedent that we can rely on .
Speaker #4: Right ? The the US World Cup , in an era with online secondary ticketing , has has zero precedent data points . When we look at the last two World Cups , they were in markets that we basically don't operate in in Russia and Qatar .
Speaker #4: And so trying to strike a cautious tone given a lack of conviction beyond that , the second observation , I think it's fairly well documented , but we've seen , you know , FIFA be , let's say , quite , quite aggressive in seeking to monetize , optimize their monetization of of the event .
Speaker #4: I think it's safe to assume there will be incremental volume . We will benefit from it . But between those two factors , we've opted to essentially disregard it as we've contemplated our outlook for next year .
Speaker #4: And it would purely represent upside .
Speaker #12: Got it . Thank you . Appreciate that color . And then my second question just it sounds like you said StubHub pulled back on marketing .
Speaker #12: Spend a bit . Is it fair to say that the Q3 exit rate improved on the year over year basis ?
Speaker #4: Yeah , I think it would be fair to say that over the course of Q3 , we saw a shift in their behavior and at corresponding shift in volumes across marketplaces .
Speaker #4: Yeah , that that happened closer to the end of Q3 than the beginning .
Speaker #12: Gotcha . That's very helpful . Thank you .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Brad Erickson with RBC Capital Markets . Your line is open .
Speaker #13: Hey , thanks . I just follow up on that last one , actually , Larry , when you when you say or when you look at kind of what's instructing the stabilization commentary on the owned property business .
Speaker #13: So you mentioned competitive intensity easing several times . Is that kind of the main driver ? Any other drivers you'd call out there , either things in your control or other market forces ?
Speaker #4: Yeah , I think the biggest one is so yeah . So the competitive landscape , of course , matters . But I'd say of similar if not equal , if not slightly more important in terms of what we've seen in the immediate term has been this value proposition .
Speaker #4: Push an inherent in what we're trying to achieve . As we get more volume in our app . I think that is a more protected ecosystem .
Speaker #4: Right ? You can bid whatever you want for a Google link , but if someone already has our app , already trusts us , is already looking at us , they will likely look at us .
Speaker #4: And if we have a structurally better offer . It doesn't matter who else is buying the top Google link . And so you can control your own destiny .
Speaker #4: More on that . That's why we're pushing , right ? Reduce the surface area and exposure to competitive response . That's a long game play , right ?
Speaker #4: You don't make that change in immediately . Have you know , profound shift of volume from one channel to the other . But we have seen market increases in the volume that's moving into the app .
Speaker #4: And I think this is one of those like layer cake dynamics where every month it goes where you bring in a new cohort of customers who have done their research , seeing the value prop , they're going to be fundamentally stickier .
Speaker #4: And over time , that will compound and build into something pretty exciting .
Speaker #13: Got it . And then appreciate the 26 guide and all . You gave the EBITDA numbers . Any color you can give maybe on cash conversion relative to that EBITDA guide .
Speaker #13: Thanks .
Speaker #4: Yeah . So appreciate that question . Yeah . I think if we look at our cash obligations moving forward , you have roughly 20 million of net interest expense .
Speaker #4: We'll have a bit less than 20 million of CapEx cap software . And then we mentioned in this release that proforma for the Tra transaction will have about 3 million of cash taxes , primarily from international operations .
Speaker #4: So you sum those up before you consider working capital . You have a roughly $40 million set of cash obligations . As we've talked about quite a bit the last few quarters , when we're growing , working capital as a source , when we're shrinking , it's a use of cash .
Speaker #4: And so I think at the epicenter of will cash growth , cash balance grow next year , is do you believe that we can sequentially grow gov I think it's reasonable to assume that take Q1 as we lap the private label losses that we saw in Q3 continue to lap those , you know , the overall year over year gov numbers will continue to be down .
Speaker #4: But if the sequential help because the balance sheet kind of remarks to market every quarter is stable and growing , you can see working capital reverse course .
Speaker #4: And so the the base case plan is at at the midpoint or better of our guidance , we would expect to be cash generative next year .
Speaker #13: Understood . Thanks .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Ben Black with Deutsche Bank . Your line is open .
Speaker #14: Hi . Thanks for taking the question . This is Kunal for Ben . Quick one on on the outlook . And you just talked about the cash flow consequences that we could see .
Speaker #14: One thing with regard to the assumption that underlie that . So are you assuming that the competitive intensity remains at the September October levels in 2026 ?
Speaker #14: Or are you assuming that maybe things go back to what we had seen earlier in this year ? And that is what determines the the the market share that you expect in 26 .
Speaker #14: And then the second one would be with regard to the traffic that you are getting and the traffic that you have on your app .
Speaker #14: What is different from other providers that makes your value proposition so unique that people will not go anywhere else to shop ? Thank you .
Speaker #4: Yeah . So let me let me start with the the app value prop , because I think that's a really compelling one . You know , I think we've talked about our loyalty program for a number of years .
Speaker #4: You know , we continue to be on a journey to build awareness of that loyalty program . But those who find and use that program , I think structurally , buy more at a multiple of the typical user .
Speaker #4: And it even before the more recent changes to our value proposition , I think . Resulted in kind of a clear best in class value prop .
Speaker #4: And then recently , what we've really pushed is , you know , base . Lower everyday pricing . And then we're continually innovating on what kind of inducements and incentives we can provide as customers move through their move , through their journey , their lifetime journey with us .
Speaker #4: So if we think if you create a experience where someone comes in and realizes that your your pricing without paying consideration to any incentives , without paying consideration to loyalty are , you know , the best in the industry relative to our largest competitors .
Speaker #4: You have a good experience , you get great customer service , you enjoy the layout of the site , and then subsequent to that , you get thoughtful recommendations .
Speaker #4: You get incentives and inducements . You sign up for loyalty and that price advantage becomes even more significant . That's a really compelling lifetime experience .
Speaker #4: Now , is that to say that others , can't offer various elements of that ? I don't think there's anything philosophically that would prevent folks from doing it .
Speaker #4: I think it's a it's an economic question . Right . If you're spending significant amounts bidding for the top keywords on search , can you do that ?
Speaker #4: And offer these lower price points ? If you have very large partnership obligations , can you do those and offer these inducements and incentives ?
Speaker #4: So we'll see . Right . I think our our belief is that we can operate the leanest platform and that uniquely enables us to sustainably deliver a best in class value prop and others will need to respond as they see fit , you know , as it relates to the first question on the competitive environment contemplated .
Speaker #4: Yeah , it's difficult to be precise on this . We certainly have have seen that . Its been kind of an up and to the right level of intensity over the last two years , and we are want we want to make sure we don't just forget that .
Speaker #4: We also want to reflect that . We have seen a change . And so I would I would characterize the midpoint as call it something in between .
Speaker #4: What we've seen in September and October and what we saw at the worst of it , kind of late Q1 , early Q2 .
Speaker #4: And so a little bit of reversion from the run rate , but not all the way back to the the most extreme point that we saw .
Speaker #14: Thank you .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Thomas Forte with Maxim Group . Your line is open .
Speaker #15: Great . Thank you . congratulations , Larry and Ted and the new opportunities and best wishes to Stan for his future endeavors . One question , one follow up .
Speaker #15: So , Larry , are you seeing any changes in consumer behavior when it comes to the secondary ticket market ? For example , when you have a game seven and a playoff series , are they still willing to pay premium prices for the experience as they have in the past ?
Speaker #4: Yeah . Thanks , Tom . I would say as a broad aggregate statement continues to feel like live events are central piece of what consumers want to spend their money on .
Speaker #4: Yeah . Thanks , Tom . I would say as a broad aggregate statement continues to feel like live events are central piece of what consumers want to spend their money on
Speaker #4: Dodgers , and so I World Series volumes and average order size were down So first off , relative to that . But when we look at the World Series relative to every year post other than the Yankees and Dodgers , this was the second best year .
Speaker #4: And so I think healthy , robust demand that we're seeing that across a lot of high profile events . I think we alluded to this last quarter , to the extent we have seen softness , it's more been on the the lower end of the market .
Speaker #4: And I think we actually see that manifest in Vegas more than in our core business . You know , the the call it week day , you know , lower AOS shows have been feeling I think some of this , you know , much talked about consumer softness .
Speaker #15: Excellent . And then I might be a little early in this one . But can you talk about your allocation priorities including reinvesting in the business international expansion , strategic M&A and buybacks .
Speaker #4: Yeah , I think , you know , for now , it's reasonable to assume that we won't be looking to complete acquisitive M&A .
Speaker #4: You know, that would be called adjacencies. I think we've long believed that there could be a compelling consolidation in this space.
Speaker #4: And so we would be eager participants in that . But , you know , Tam expansion , I think we've got to know , that in the hatches and focus on on the core business .
Speaker #4: Yeah . Given the , you know , performance on both EBITDA and cash flow this year , I think , you know , we'll display a lot of prudence on on any cash leaving the system , including share repurchases in the near term .
Speaker #4: I think we think that the there's a very compelling value at these prices . But step one is bad in the hatches and assure that we have all of the capital we need to continue investing in all of the initiatives that we see .
Speaker #4: Really compelling you ROI against , such as international . And so we'll keep doing , you know , the defend the core . And then once we have a little more of a proven track record of stabilization , return to growth , return to cash , we can open up the aperture a bit .
Speaker #15: Thank you Larry . Thank you Ted .
Speaker #2: Next question comes from the line of Andrew Murdock with Raymond James . Your line is open .
Speaker #16: Thanks for taking my question . Maybe on the international part there . I guess , what signals are you seeing in kind of that , what you call the core international business that give you the the impetus to to continue investing there as a , as opposed to maybe rationalizing some incremental cost savings out of that business .
Speaker #16: Thank you .
Speaker #4: Yeah . Thanks , Andrew . I'd start with , you know , we've been pleasantly surprised at the quickness with which we've been able to bring the international business to the contribution margin positive .
Speaker #4: So we are there today already . I think we've we've had just to refresh on the context via has a very substantial market position in Europe and as a result , when we have shown up in pockets where we have fully competitive supply and I would say that has initially been areas where it's either NFL comes to Europe .
Speaker #4: US artists go on global tours or other events where US sellers have meaningful positions . We immediately have fully competitive supply . When we have competed for traffic and eyeballs on those areas .
Speaker #4: With competitive supply , competitive pricing . We have seen abundant success . The task ahead , then , is to continue to add pockets across various countries , especially with the focus on local events where we can have that fully competitive supply and pricing .
Speaker #4: And from what we've seen , the ability to market profitably will follow quickly . Once you have that supply in place at some hand to knife fighting to get to that point .
Speaker #4: And so that's the journey we're on from here .
Speaker #2: There are no further questions at this time . That concludes today's call . Thank you all for joining . You may now disconnect .