Q3 2025 Permian Resources Corp Earnings Call

Speaker #3: Good morning and welcome to Permian Resource conference call to discuss its third quarter 2025 earnings . Today's call is being recorded . A replay of the call will be accessible until November 20th , 2025 by dialing (888) 660-6264 and entering the replay access code 91750 , or by visiting the company's website at Permian Resource .

Speaker #3: At this time , I will now turn the call over to Hays Mabry Permian Resource , Vice President of Investor Relations , for some opening remarks .

Speaker #3: Please go ahead .

Speaker #4: Thank you . Jenny , and thank you all for joining us on the call today . Are William Hickey and James Walter . Our Chief executive officers and Guy Olsson , our chief financial officer .

Speaker #4: Many of the comments during this call are forward looking statements that involve risk and uncertainties that could affect our actual results and are discussed in more detail in our filings with the SEC .

Speaker #4: We may also refer to non-GAAP financial measures for any non-GAAP measure , we use a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in our earnings release or presentation .

Speaker #4: With that , I will turn the call over to William Hickey co-CEO .

Speaker #5: Thanks , Hayes . We're excited to discuss our third quarter results this morning . This marks the 12th consecutive quarter of strong operational performance by the PR team , culminating in our highest quarterly free cash flow per share since inception .

Speaker #5: Despite a suppressed commodity environment . Our business is firing on all cylinders as we are able to deliver strong execution in the field .

Speaker #5: Progress . Our acquisition strategy , improve our balance sheet and continue delivering strong returns to our shareholders . We think this performance is a testament to both the quality of our people and the quality of our assets , and should continue to set PR up for strong and growing free cash flow .

Speaker #5: Going forward . In Q3 , production exceeded expectations with oil production of 187,000 barrels of oil per day , up 6% from Q2 , and total production of 410,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day .

Speaker #5: Our production outperformance was driven by continued strong execution , particularly from a large scale Texas development that was brought online in the quarter .

Speaker #5: On the cost side , our operations team continues to set the standard in the Delaware Basin . We reduced controllable cash costs by 6% quarter over quarter , primarily driven by reducing low approximately $0.30 to 507 per boe , and DNC costs by 3% , averaging 7.25 per foot in the quarter .

Speaker #5: Both metrics were below full year guidance , and we see additional room for improvement on the DNC side as we head into next year .

Speaker #5: The combination of strong production and lower costs drove adjusted operating cash flow of $949 million and record adjusted free cash flow of 469 million , with $480 million of cash .

Speaker #5: CapEx . Our outstanding operating performance and conservative financial strategy further enhance our fortress balance sheet . During the third quarter , we called our 2026 Senior Notes and redeemed the Legacy Centennial Convert , reducing outstanding debt by over 450 million and further simplifying our capital structure .

Speaker #5: In July , we received our first investment grade credit rating from Fitch , and earlier this week , Moody's upgraded us to a positive outlook , bringing us one step closer to investment grade .

Speaker #5: Our credit metrics have long matched our investment grade peers , and we appreciate the recognition . Slide five highlights our strong Haley production outperformance that underpinned Q3 production results .

Speaker #5: We frequently talk about our Delaware Basin leading cost structure , but this development is a great example of how our technical team approaches every project to maximize recoveries and value across our position .

Speaker #5: Our proprietary subsurface characterization dictated how we space stack sequence and customized completions for each of these 17 wells . The combination of these technical refinements drove a 45% oil outperformance versus offset wells in the first 90 days .

Speaker #5: The recipe here is the same one we've used to consistently improve results across our portfolio . Data driven spacing and targeting . Interval specific completions and precise wellbore placement , all supported by PR's cutting edge technology and long history of technical expertise in the Delaware Basin .

Speaker #5: Having our entire team based in Midland , close to our assets allows us to seamlessly translate technical insights to the field , driving lower costs and superior execution on the back of our strong well results and stellar operational execution this quarter .

Speaker #5: We're raising the midpoint of our full year production guidance to 181.5 thousand barrels of oil per day and 394,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day , while keeping our CapEx guidance unchanged .

Speaker #5: This plan reflects an increase to the original full year production guide of 5% , while lowering the capital budget by 2% , demonstrating continued improvements in capital efficiency .

Speaker #5: With that , I will turn it over to James .

Speaker #4: Thanks , will .

Speaker #5: Turning to slide seven . We wanted to provide a little more .

Speaker #4: Context and background about . how we built Permian resources into the business it is today . When we started Colgate Energy and moved to Midland in 2015 , we had no assets and no production .

Speaker #4: We quickly realized that building a business of quality and scale was not going to be easy . And if we were going to be successful , we would have to focus on doing the hard things that other companies didn't want to do .

Speaker #4: We built Colgate by working harder and being scrappier than the companies that surrounded us . We were also fortunate that our entire team was in Midland .

Speaker #4: This allowed us to have great real time information and to build long lasting relationships with mineral owners , brokers and legacy operators . It also gave us access to real time Intel on the latest technology .

Speaker #4: Well , results in information in a rapidly changing environment . Having our headquarters and entire team in Midland allowed us to truly ingrain ourselves within the Permian Basin ecosystem , which was our first competitive advantage .

Speaker #4: Today , we are fortunate to have another true competitive advantage , which is our peer leading cost structure in the Delaware Basin . As you can see in the graph to the top of slide seven , we were able to drill , complete and operate wells at a cost structure that is meaningfully lower than the companies around us .

Speaker #4: And the results speak for themselves . We have completed over 2000 transactions in the past ten years and have built a track record of driving the highest equity returns in the oil and gas business .

Speaker #4: But as a private company , before and now as a public company , and our momentum and opportunity set is only growing . We're on pace this year to do more transactions than any other year .

Speaker #4: And think the acquisitions we are doing today are as good as any deals we have done in the history of the company . We are proud that our team has continued to maintain the same culture of doing the small things and doing the hard things .

Speaker #4: This culture is clear in our approach to acquisitions and divestitures , but more importantly , it is deeply ingrained in every department and every part of our business .

Speaker #4: Doing the hard things , not only supports our M&A effort , but leads to the best in basin cost structure that allows it all to happen .

Speaker #4: And all of this shows itself more specifically in what we were able to accomplish in Q3 . We closed 250 deals , primarily in New Mexico , adding 5500 net leasehold acres in 2400 net royalty acres for approximately $180 million .

Speaker #4: The acreage we bought in Q3 fits like a glove with our existing position and the locations will compete for capital in our high quality portfolio from day one .

Speaker #4: Our acquisition pipeline remains robust and we feel good about Ppe's ability to continue to do accretive deals that increase our inventory life and drive long term value for investors .

Speaker #4: Slide nine shows the progress we have made, increasing the amount of gas we sell at a basin and improving our netbacks. Piano has agreements to sell approximately 330,000,000 cubic feet per day out of the basin in 2026, increasing to 700,000,000 cubic feet per day in 2028.

Speaker #4: As a result , at current strip , the volumes associated with these agreements are expected to realize approximately $1 per MCF . Higher pricing , net of fees , in 2026 , resulting in a greater than $100 million uplift to free cash flow next year .

Speaker #4: As a result of these agreements and our existing hedges , the company has reduced its Waha exposure to approximately 25% of total gas volumes in 2026 .

Speaker #4: Longer term , these agreements put PR in a position to benefit from growing natural gas demand and higher realized prices on a larger portion of its natural gas production .

Speaker #4: Moving to slide ten , we want to point out that PR is in the fortunate position of having the flexibility to allocate capital to whatever part of our business we think is going to drive the most long term value .

Speaker #4: Capital allocation is the most important thing we do , and our strong balance sheet allows the company to pursue an all of the above approach to value creation .

Speaker #4: We can allocate capital to the highest return opportunities , rather than having to focus our efforts on a single capital allocation strategy . Just this year , we see an opportunity to deploy 800 million into acquisitions , $75 million into buybacks , all while reducing our total debt by 630 million and maintaining one of the highest based dividends in the sector .

Speaker #4: Having the flexibility to allocate capital to whatever we believe creates the most long-term value has been a key part of our business model for the last ten years and remains a core part of our strategy going forward.

Speaker #4: Thank you for tuning in today , and now we will turn it back to the operator for Q&A .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Ladies and gentlemen , we will now begin the question and answer session . Did you have a question ? Please press .

Speaker #3: The star followed by the one on your touchtone phone . Should you wish to cancel your request , please press the followed by the two .

Speaker #3: If you are using a speaker phone , please lift the handset before pressing any keys . Once again , that is star one .

Speaker #3: Should you wish to ask a question . Your first question is from Scott Hanold from RBC . Your line is now open .

Speaker #6: Hey , thanks . Good morning guys . I know it's a bit early on 2026 , but obviously it's very topical for for investors .

Speaker #6: So can you just give us a general sense of how you're thinking about the activity pace and what that could , you know , just high level mean about oil production and relative CapEx ?

Speaker #4: Yeah , sure . Scott . I'd say , look , per our long standing policy , we're not going to put out a soft guide or anything like that at this time .

Speaker #4: As we've done the last few years . We think it makes a lot more sense running this business to wait until February to put out 2026 guidance .

Speaker #4: I'd say , obviously , four months from now , we think we'll know a lot more about the macro . The service cost , environment , what we think commodity prices look like heading heading into the balance of the year .

Speaker #4: So I think what I tell you is . Look , we're fortunate that our business continues to have a ton of flexibility next year and we should be in a position to react to whatever the macro environment looks like .

Speaker #4: And I think if that's an environment that is supportive of and encouraging to , to hire reinvestment quicker , paybacks , higher returns , and ultimately production growth , we can do that and do that quickly .

Speaker #4: And if it's an environment that has weaker commodity prices , kind of lower returns than we're in a position to , to deliver a really capital efficient kind of lower or no growth program , you know , that's that's probably not as much detail as you'd like , but but what I can tell you is that 2026 is shaping up to be a really strong year .

Speaker #4: Whichever of the various paths we do end up choosing , I think we think it's setting up to be the most capital efficient year we have ever had .

Speaker #4: Look , we continue to get more efficient . On the upside , as you see this quarter and make substantial and sustainable improvements to really all parts of our cost structure , our productivity remains strong .

Speaker #4: We think next year should be just as good as this year , which was just as good as the years before that . And as we talked about a couple of times in this deck in the last decade , our realizations are meaningfully better next year .

Speaker #4: You know , we talked about on the prior earnings call that we expect to realize $0.50 a barrel higher on the crude side .

Speaker #4: And we think our our gas netback could be $0.20 an MCF better based on the agreements we've signed the last couple of months .

Speaker #4: So all in , you know , I think next year should be a really good , strong year for Permian resources . But but we're going to wait and see what the macro brings before we we formalize a plan .

Speaker #6: Okay . Thanks . And I appreciate that that context . You know , if we could take a look at that Haley , you know , that Haley kind of that pad you all drilled or at least set a wells , you know , obviously fantastic results .

Speaker #6: But , you know , as you step back and look at your , you know , acreage holistically , are there any other opportunities like that across your asset base , whether you know , smaller or larger or similar size ?

Speaker #6: And and why was that ? So , you know , like uniquely good on a relative basis .

Speaker #5: Yeah . Thanks , Scott . Haley was unique to us in that it was kind of more of like a one off block that we owned and is not contiguous with the greater PR position .

Speaker #5: And as such , I think it gave our team an ability to demonstrate what they do so well , you know , both from the cost side and the productivity side as compared to , to offset results .

Speaker #5: But if you take a step back , I'd say on an absolute basis , the performance from the Haley pad is kind of right in the middle of performance of PR's overall position .

Speaker #5: This was a it caught us off guard because we built expectations based on offset production . And , you know , significantly outperformed that over the first 90 days .

Speaker #5: But if you just look at kind of productivity of that pad , it should fall pretty much in line with our overall portfolio .

Speaker #5: So , you know , it was a it was a nice surprise to the upside . And I think really demonstrate what our team does very well .

Speaker #5: But it's not a the rest of our portfolio will continue to perform as good if not better than Haley , which is consistent with previous years .

Speaker #6: Thank you for that .

Speaker #4: Thanks ,

Speaker #7: Scott .

Speaker #3: Thank you . And your next question is from John Freeman from Raymond James . Your line is now open .

Speaker #8: Thanks . Good morning guys . Nice to see the the continued progress on the the gas marketing agreements . Obviously looks like in a couple of years out .

Speaker #8: 2728 year old , you know you'll have 90% plus of those gas volumes being priced outside the basin . And I'm just trying to get maybe some color on maybe the the optionality that you all have in terms of like the gas that's being moved to kind of DFW market versus the options to move it to the Gulf Coast .

Speaker #8: I mean , just looking at some of the agreements you've got , like , you know , the Hugh Brunson line . Well , I know that that that stops in Maypearl , you know , south of DFW , I believe it has optionality to go to , you know , Katy , you've got Matterhorn that goes directly to Katy just trying to get a sense of kind of when I look at DFW versus the Gulf Coast markets , just kind of the optionality you've got with these agreements , if you could .

Speaker #4: Yeah , I think we do have quite a bit of flexibility to kind of shift volumes from the Houston Ship Channel to DFW markets .

Speaker #4: I think what that looks like for us out in 27 or 28 is going to depend on what the market looks like at the time , you know , so I think for us , I do think specifically , most of our gas will go to Houston Ship Channel or DFW and probably somewhere close to 5050 , in a base case with the ability to swing that , you know , 10 or 15% in either direction , depending on on what we're seeing in the market .

Speaker #4: But I do think we've got some flexibility there . But but in any case , we'll have gas going to both DFW and , you know , the Gulf Coast markets .

Speaker #8: Got it . And then on the bottom of that , that slide five , we all highlight a number of of different leading edge things .

Speaker #8: Y'all been doing to improve recovery , lower costs . I'm just some of those I think y'all been doing for all year . I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of what y'all would characterize as more , maybe more recent developments , things that maybe are just starting to flow through , you know , operations , results , just anything y'all could highlight on that front .

Speaker #5: Yeah , I'd say we are always kind of tinkering and trying new things to both reduce costs and increase recoveries . You know , not to sound repetitive with kind of other conversations , but I'd say like recent breakthroughs have been on the drill outside for longer laterals .

Speaker #5: We've kind of been testing and had a lot of success with a new technique that I'd say is meaningfully reduced drill out cost .

Speaker #5: We're going to continue to kind of tinker with it and see exactly how well it fits across our whole portfolio , but I'd say , especially on extended reach laterals , it has been a kind of a step change in efficiencies and cost on the drill outside , I'd say on the recovery side , we are kind of continuing to play with optimal landing targets , combined with kind of the right completion design .

Speaker #5: You know that those details change on every well , we drill , but this is something that I'd say our team prides herself on is we are , I think , have been deemed , you know , the leader on the cost side in the basin .

Speaker #5: But we put just as much effort on the recovery side as well to make sure that we are maximizing the value of every acre that we own.

Speaker #5: And I think the team has done a really good job .

Speaker #8: Thanks , guys . Great results .

Speaker #5: Thanks .

Speaker #7: John .

Speaker #3: Thank you and your next question is from Neal Dingmann from William Blair . Your line is now open .

Speaker #9: Morning , guys . Nice quarter James just jumping right into my first question , I think really notable on that . Slide 11 .

Speaker #9: All the above slide . You know , my question is I can't help but see the comment where you mentioned the dividend supported by around $40 .

Speaker #9: So my question is sort of on when you bookend that . If prices do fall , you know , let's say in the near term around that , could we see mostly just leaning , you know , just just that quarterly dividend .

Speaker #9: Then the other side of that , when prices once oil does rebound , do you anticipate , you know , sort of again , all the above where you would look at dividends , buybacks , debt repayment and acquisitions ?

Speaker #4: That's a great question . I mean , I think that slide ten is our favorite slide in the deck . I'm glad you pointed it out .

Speaker #4: But I'd say look like the way we're trying to run this business is that we would be able to deploy this all of the above strategy and and really in any commodity price environment , including something as low as , as $40 or below , you know , I think as you see , like we've got leverage and liquidity in a place where we want to be able to deploy capital to whichever of these , you know , acquisitions , buybacks is the most attractive return .

Speaker #4: And we want to be able to do that even in the darkest days of a down cycle . So I think for us , like the way we've positioned our balance sheet , the liquidity , the leverage , like we want to be doing this , all of the above strategy at any environment , because I think we've seen it .

Speaker #4: You know , at the bottoms of these cycles , the best opportunities arise . And and don't want to have to be on the sidelines at $35 , $40 , whatever kind of most bearish prices .

Speaker #4: We probably don't think will happen . But but want to make sure we're ready for it . So I'd say this all the above strategy is something we're going to deploy .

Speaker #4: And in any part of the down cycle and as as dark as it gets . And just fortunate the business is in a position that that we think we can do that .

Speaker #4: And pretty much any commodity price , environment . .

Speaker #9: And then just lastly , sort of bolting on to that , my second question , just on M&A specifically , you guys were very active .

Speaker #9: I know , you know , there's always the rumblings that , you know , they can't find any more acreage . Yet you not only find it , you find it at a lower cost .

Speaker #9: So I guess my question is , you know , are there continue to be small deals out there and your thoughts about , you know , there was obviously some big prices paid on the some of the New Mexico lease sales .

Speaker #9: And there's another one coming up this month. Just your thoughts on sort of ground game versus other M&A.

Speaker #4: Yeah , I mean , I think kind of to the beginning of your question , I'd say our ground game and M&A pipeline is , is as full as it's ever been .

Speaker #4: You can see in the graph on slide seven , like we've actually done more transactions through the first nine months of this year than any other year in company history .

Speaker #4: So I'd say rather than kind of drawing opportunity , set drying out , it , it seems to be expanding and we're having to look harder and turn over more rocks and probably do more deals and more small deals to to find the values that you see add up to the really attractive prices you see on slide eight .

Speaker #4: Like I'd say , as you mentioned , there have been some big prices paid in New Mexico . It's it's the best rock in the world .

Speaker #4: And unfortunately to be operating in what we think is the best basin and but also fortunate that we have a I think a true differentiated and proprietary access to to deal flow that other people don't see .

Speaker #4: We're on the ground here in Midland . We're kicking over every rock and still willing to do the small and hard stuff . Like I said in my introductory remarks .

Speaker #4: So I think for us , you know , this rock is incredibly valuable . But we're in a fortunate position of having a lot of different ways to find deals and kind of pursuing all of the above strategy here to .

Speaker #9: Well said . Thank you all .

Speaker #7: Thanks , Neil .

Speaker #3: Thank you . And your next question is from Neil Mehta from Goldman Sachs . Your line is now open .

Speaker #10: Yeah , great . Great execution . Guys , I've been multiple quarters of it . And so I guess my first question is , you know , beyond just the operational volume improvement , the balance sheet is getting better recognized .

Speaker #10: You went to a positive watch I believe at at Moody's . And you're pretty close to , to turning investment grade . So can you talk about you know , what are the next steps there .

Speaker #10: And and what does move into investment grade mean for for Permian resources ?

Speaker #11: Hey Neil . It's Guy . Thanks for the question . Yeah . We were happy with both the Fitch and Moody's Outcomes here recently .

Speaker #11: We think it recognizes what we've communicated to our investors and to the rating agencies , which is we have an investment grade balance sheet and financial strategy .

Speaker #11: And we've grown fast in the rating agencies are following that , along with us . What do we have to do from here ?

Speaker #11: We're just continuing our dialogue with the agencies . So I think really understand our story . And we've got a great shot at getting to investment grade in the near term .

Speaker #11: I think what it does for us is we continue to think about protecting the balance sheet through the cycle , availability of capital through the cycle , and lowering our cost of capital .

Speaker #11: And this does all of those things . So it's very complementary to all the things that we're doing as a business today . And a recognition of how we've grown the business the right way .

Speaker #10: Yeah . Thanks , guy . And then just the follow up is just on the Permian broadly , we've seen strong growth year over year , I think led by the majors .

Speaker #10: But I think companies like yourself have also outperformed expectations . There's a big debate out there . Are we at peak Permian or not .

Speaker #10: And obviously has macro implications . I know you guys spend more time thinking about your operations than trying to predict the oil price , but you've got an on the ground perspective in Midland .

Speaker #10: How far away from peak Permian do you think we are ?

Speaker #4: Oh , Neil , that's a good question . I don't think we pretend to know the answer to that . I think what we do know , though , is activity is definitely been slowing down out here .

Speaker #4: I mean , I think you've seen it in the rig count . You've seen it in completions , activities that there's a lot of kind of kind of slowdown .

Speaker #4: I'd say , you know , it'll come . I think we've seen the Permian historically be more resilient than , than maybe people thought .

Speaker #4: I think it's kind of TBD if if that continues . But it definitely feels like you can feel it on the streets of Midland .

Speaker #4: There's there's fewer people , there's fewer rigs , there's fewer completion crews . And you know , eventually we think that that manifests itself in production growth slowing and ultimately flattening .

Speaker #4: And then I think eventually declining . But I think it's kind of too early to tell when exactly that turnover happens .

Speaker #10: That's good on the ground colour . Thanks , James .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from Kevin Mckirdy from Pickering Partners . Your line is now open .

Speaker #12: Hey , good morning . I wanted to ask on CapEx cadence this year and how that could translate going forward . You know , the first half of this year , around 500 million a quarter , the back half is around , you know , as closer to 480 million to 485 , given three key results in the four Q guide .

Speaker #12: And then is that just a function of lower well costs throughout the year ? Are there any activity changes that affected CapEx ? And , you know what ?

Speaker #12: How can we kind of think about that quarterly cadence heading forward ?

Speaker #5: No , it's been pretty flat activity . So I'd say , well , cost and kind of normal ebbs and flows in working interest would drive any , any kind of quarter to quarter differentiation .

Speaker #5: But well , cost being the main driver of what you're seeing in the back half of the year .

Speaker #12: Thank you . That's helpful . And I wanted to ask again about the ground game and transactions . And just wanted to get your perspective .

Speaker #12: I mean , we've seen the M&A market kind of heat up . And there's an assumption that large operators are hunting big deals .

Speaker #12: Just kind of curious if this reflects what you're seeing on the ground . And is that making it harder or easier to do kind of these smaller deals that you're known for ?

Speaker #4: Honestly , it's easier to do the the smaller deals than it's ever been . You know , I think we've always had a good sourcing pipeline , but I think our , our cost structure advantage is , is wide as we see it today , as it's ever been .

Speaker #4: And I think people with our activity levels are kind of in basin in Midland on the . Ground knowledge of everything going on like it feels like we've got a more sustainable , competitive advantage on the on the small deals side than we've ever had .

Speaker #4: And I don't think we've seen the the kind of pressure at the top . Neil had previously referenced some some big prices paid and in large scale auctions like that tends to not trickle down .

Speaker #4: I'd say the people who are chasing larger deals aren't chasing the deals . At the smaller end of the spectrum , that's just kind of not how the ecosystem has has been set up or has worked historically .

Speaker #4: And we don't see that pressure at the bottom today . And really don't see it kind of coming down over time .

Speaker #12: That's great answer . Thank you .

Speaker #7: Thanks , Kevin .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from Paul Diamond from Citi . Your line is open .

Speaker #13: Thanks . Good morning all . It's a quick one sticking on the ground game . As mentioned it's the strongest pipeline you've seen .

Speaker #13: But has any recent volatility kind of shifted the balance of those deals . You're looking at between you know more of the working interest heavy versus those more to block out your acreage .

Speaker #4: No , I don't think so . I'd say , you know , I think the macro , the smaller end , the kind of smaller size deals tend to be more stable and just kind of come at the pace , frankly , that we find them .

Speaker #4: A lot of those deals are us turning over rocks themselves and kind of finding the deals and drawing them out . So we that kind of tends to go as fast as as we can go .

Speaker #4: And I do think that that pace has accelerated a little bit with our larger footprint . I'd say honestly , a renewed focus on on the ground game .

Speaker #4: It's something we talk a lot about in the office today . I think volatility can have a bigger effect on on larger deals .

Speaker #4: You know , I'd say we got an Apache deal done in April May . But besides that , the larger deal pipeline was pretty quiet over that time period .

Speaker #4: I think people but it seems like they're kind of the macro environment has has settled down a little bit . You know , I think would expect buyers and sellers of deals in the hundreds of millions of dollars to kind of be able to get there in this environment .

Speaker #4: I think if you saw oil sharply go to 40 or 80 , that might put things on pause again for a little while .

Speaker #4: But but the beat goes on . You know , I think that that deals that are going to come to market are going to come to market .

Speaker #4: And the rocks that we're going to turn over , we're going to turn over . So I'd say it can have 1 or 2 month slowdowns or accelerations , but by and large it's it's pretty steady over here .

Speaker #13: Got it . Makes perfect sense . And then just sticking on the nat gas feet and sales agreements moving to 5025 , 25 .

Speaker #13: But I guess over time where do you guys see the right balance of that ? Do you want more in that 75% number in feet in sales agreements ?

Speaker #13: Or is the hedging and remain a pretty substantial part ?

Speaker #4: You know , I think a lot of I think we we likely continue to hedge as we move forward . I think hedging could look different .

Speaker #4: Right . Like today , you know , our hedges are largely hedges that we have placed at Waha because that's where the gas corresponding gas sales are .

Speaker #4: I think over time we'll be in the fortunate position . If we're selling more and more gas in the downstream market at Dfw's and along the Gulf Coast , I think we'll have a different question of do we want to hedge the Houston Ship Channel price and lock that in ?

Speaker #4: I think we're fortunate about that , as we'd expect less volatility and less dislocations . The further downstream you get from the Permian Basin .

Speaker #4: So have more flexibility there . But yeah , I think I think we'll continue to hedge actual financial hedging like we've done . But I think more importantly , what we're doing is , is more of a physical hedge where we're actually physically selling more of our volumes at the end markets that we think will be better markets over the long term .

Speaker #4: So probably reduces the amount of hedging going forward . But I think that's going to be dependent on the market and the pricing as we see it .

Speaker #4: You know , in the future .

Speaker #13: Got it . I appreciate the clarity . I'll leave it there .

Speaker #3: Thank you . You next question is from David Deckelbaum from TD Bank . Your line is now open .

Speaker #14: Hey guys . Thanks for taking the question today to to follow up just on on some of the gas marketing questions . I just wanted to get some color from your perspective .

Speaker #14: You know , why shine these agreements now versus other periods in the past . And I guess how should we be thinking about the the impact to your cost structure beyond 27 ?

Speaker #4: I mean , I think we probably should have signed a lot of a lot of these agreements 3 or 4 years ago . That's probably on us .

Speaker #4: I think a lot of people missed it too . But I'd say , look , as we've run the business most of the time , the last decade , our number one focus has been on on flow assurance .

Speaker #4: And we've bought a lot of assets that came with legacy contracts that had lots of restrictions on what amount of gas we could take in kind and how we could sell downstream from there.

Speaker #4: So I'd say we've been pretty transparent that over the last two years , maximizing our netbacks on not just crude volumes , which I think we've done an awesome job on the last ten years , but on gas volumes as well , has been one of , if not the top priority at the company .

Speaker #4: And we've been making as much progress as we can . And , you know , I think it's all kind of coming together , you know , this year and in the past couple of quarters .

Speaker #4: But we're convicted . It's the right decision . We're convicted that for all your hydrocarbons that's selling further downstream , closer to end users is going to get you a higher netback on the average over time .

Speaker #4: And you're seeing that play out in a big way in 2026 . And we think although the kind of futures market doesn't imply as big of an uplift in years beyond that , we think it'll continue to outperform and pay dividends for for years to come .

Speaker #14: I appreciate that color . And maybe just to expand a little bit , I know that you said you didn't want to give any guidance on 26 , but I think you did remark you think it's going to be your most capital efficient year ever .

Speaker #14: Is that is that more in reference to the uplift that you see in realizations , or are there sounds like your expectation is that , well , productivity is pretty static .

Speaker #14: I mean , what what sort of motivates your enthusiasm around capital efficiency next year ?

Speaker #5: I mean , in short answer , we think that , you know , well , productivity will be consistent with the last 2 or 3 years .

Speaker #5: And are , well , costs are as low as they've ever been . And I think that we probably have a little bit of room from here to continue to kind of reduce them a little bit from here .

Speaker #5: And so , you know , lowest well cost ever with consistent productivity and , and better realizations is a recipe for more capital efficient business .

Speaker #5: And so I think that what James alluded to earlier is that 26 is going to be a great year . The decision that we ultimately need to make over the next few months is , do we let that incremental capital efficiency accrue to , to more production or less CapEx ?

Speaker #5: And I think that's what we're going to work through over the next few months .

Speaker #14: Sounds good . Appreciate it .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from Josh from Daniel Energy Partners . Your line is now open .

Speaker #15: Hey , guys . There's a lot to geek out on . On slide five . But kind of wondering about when I see the 6% decline in controllable costs .

Speaker #15: You call out chlorine dioxide as a treatment to increase base production . I'm kind of wondering what other sort of initiatives you're taking on that side to sort of manage base production and keep lowering your lows .

Speaker #15: In particular .

Speaker #5: I mean , those guys are always trying to make the business better . You know , we've had a lot of success in New Mexico , where power's terrible on kind of combining well , site generation to more central , you know , larger scale generation .

Speaker #5: I think we took 26 generators out of the field in Q3 over the three microgrids we've put in . I think we've got 1 or 2 more between now and year end .

Speaker #5: So , you know , that's a step change both in cost of power , but also in runtime . You know , I'd say a big part of our production outperformance over the course of this year has been improved runtime .

Speaker #5: And if you can go stack lots of compressors or lots of power generation on one site , you get much better runtime than you do when it's spread out over , over .

Speaker #5: Lots of different places . Yeah , I'd say the carbon dioxide is an interesting one . Just as older wells have more build up around the perfs .

Speaker #5: When we have a failure and we're running in a lot of times we'll pump some kind of carbon dioxide and acid to clean up perfs and clean up near wellbore .

Speaker #5: And we've seen in some places where you have a remarkable increase in production , you know , 5 to 10 x where you were temporarily and ultimately it kind of declines back to something that is still material , materially better than you were before .

Speaker #5: Look , I think that the the Permian Basin is a place where innovation is always happening . And we've built a team and a culture of always trying to kind of have our ear to the ground .

Speaker #5: So we're the the fastest follower in places where we are not innovating the new ideas . And in other cases , we are kind of truly pioneering new things .

Speaker #5: And I think that that'll show up in , you know , hopefully better runtime , better , well , cost and better productivity over time .

Speaker #15: Gotcha . So I mean , but it still sounds like it's potentially kind of early days for some of these initiatives . Is that fair ?

Speaker #7: So I'd .

Speaker #4: Say it's always early days . Like I don't think the .

Speaker #7: Pace of innovation .

Speaker #4: I has slowed at all . Like it feels like every day , every month , every year , like the opportunity set to make the business better across all facets production , optimization specifically , but it's always good .

Speaker #4: I don't think we see it slowing down and maybe early days on 1 or 2 of these technologies . But there's another technology coming around next year that we're not even talking about today .

Speaker #4: So I don't think that pace of innovation is slowing by any means . And we Permian Resource I think probably on the front end , but but the whole industry is finding ways to continue to get better .

Speaker #15: Great . Thanks . I'll turn it back .

Speaker #7: Thanks , Jeff .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from John Abbott from Wolfe Research . Your line is now open .

Speaker #16: Hey , thank you very much for taking our questions , Guy . Maybe just a really quick question . You've had a little bit more time to examine the one big beautiful bill .

Speaker #16: Anything incremental as far as future cash taxes at this point on .

Speaker #11: Nothing different from last quarter .

Speaker #16: All right . That's that's helpful . And then then the other question is , I mean , you have a very low corporate break , even with the dividend .

Speaker #16: How do you think about the pace of future dividend growth at this period of time as you sort of look at what you're doing as your ability to generate free cash flow ?

Speaker #4: Yeah , I mean , I think , I think kind of look for us , I'd say having a sustainable and growing base dividend is a core part of our strategy .

Speaker #4: As Permian Resource . It's what we view as a core quality of any high quality business in this sector , or really in any sector .

Speaker #4: So I'd say growing the dividend over time is a priority and something you will see consistently from us year in , year out .

Speaker #4: I think . I think the pace of what we've done the last couple of years probably slows from here . It's been pretty exceptional from a care perspective , but I'd say as next year that's something we'd expect to finalize alongside our February budget .

Speaker #4: But I'd say the business is firing on all cylinders . The ability to continue to grow the dividend , given the capital efficiency we've referenced on this call , is as strong as ever .

Speaker #4: So you should see it continue to grow next year . And for years to come .

Speaker #16: Thank you very much for taking our questions .

Speaker #7: You bet .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from Paul Cheng from Scotiabank . Your line is now open .

Speaker #17: Thank you . Good morning gentlemen . I'm just curious that I think the whole industry and including yourselves , that is looking at the metal link and you are seeing that you are seeing some success .

Speaker #17: If I look at from a land position standpoint where you see the opportunity set , what percent of your program could be in the three miles , and also have you test on the alternative shape and whether that you think that will be a good fit for you .

Speaker #17: That's the first question .

Speaker #7: Yeah. Look, I'd say the helipad.

Speaker #4: Was a great example of a really successful three mile development . I think we drilled quite a few three milers this year . I'd say it's become a larger part of our program , and we're very impressed with how well our teams executed on on the longer models , we'll mention some great technology on the drill outside .

Speaker #4: We've applied . I think our land position sets up really well . We've got a blocky position in Texas and New Mexico that could set up for long laterals .

Speaker #4: I think for us , the honest answer is we don't see that much of a capital efficiency step up in the Delaware Basin today , and most of the areas that we operate , going from two miles to three miles , obviously three miles are are better on a DNC per foot basis .

Speaker #4: But just given how much oil and gas and fluid we make in the Delaware , we often don't see the corresponding one for one uplift in in initial production .

Speaker #4: So you you drill and complete cheaper , but you make closer to the same amount of oil in in the early times . So on a discounted cost of capital , rate of return basis , you're not seeing major uplifts from going from two miles to three .

Speaker #4: I think the short answer is anywhere from 2 to 3 is a pretty good place to be. And the vast majority of our positions set up for long laterals in that window and should be the majority of our program going forward.

Speaker #17: How about on the alternative shape ? Have you guys ever looked at that or test it out ?

Speaker #5: Oh , you turn wells . we drilled . I think we've drilled ten U-turns year to date . I'd say it's .

Speaker #4: It's not an important part of our go forward program . I think there's been some cool examples of us , like where you had a legacy one mile .

Speaker #4: Well , on a DSU and you and the rest of it , the rest of the pads set up for two mile laterals perfectly .

Speaker #4: And you had a legacy . Well , that you could do a U-turn or a j-hook around . That's been a really cool tool .

Speaker #4: It's a lot us to more efficiently drain resource , probably add an extra stick that otherwise wouldn't have been economic , but you know , we're really fortunate our land position sets up for two and three miles straight .

Speaker #4: Well , so aren't going to have to drill a lot of U-turns going forward .

Speaker #17: Okay . And on the opportunistic buy , can you share that ? What kind of criteria or metrics that you guys are using in terms of that design , whether that this is the right time to do buyback or not ?

Speaker #4: Yeah , I mean , I think we've always said we're going to buy back shares when there are material dislocations in the share price .

Speaker #4: You know , I think most more often than not that's driven by the macro . I think rather than tell everyone our specific criteria , do you think kind of pointing to what we did in April immediately after quote unquote , Liberation Day , we saw a material reaction in downward in the Permian Resource stock price and had a .

Speaker #4: Awesome opportunity to buy shares in the 10 to $11 range and hit that as hard as we could that whole week . You know , I'd say the stock recovered pretty quickly .

Speaker #4: And that opportunity window closed. But I'd say for us, it's going to be a material dislocation that is going to be kind of what we use as the criteria.

Speaker #4: And frankly , we're always going to be weighing that against our other opportunities . I'd say , you know , our acquisition pipeline remains robust , so we'll be constantly weighing do we think we'll generate a higher long term return ?

Speaker #4: Buying back shares or doing acquisitions or or frankly , putting cash on the balance sheet for future opportunities ? So I'd say any one of those is on the table at any given time .

Speaker #4: And we're constantly evaluating the opportunity set more broadly and going to allocate capital to whatever we think generates the highest rate of return and creates the most long term value for shareholders .

Speaker #17: Great . Thank you .

Speaker #3: Thank you . Your next question is from Noah , from Bank of America . Your line is now open .

Speaker #18: Morning . I'd like to start off on just a maintenance CapEx . Given the DNC efficiencies you've seen , how can we think about maintenance CapEx levels and then also how your dividend breakeven evolves over time through 26 and beyond ?

Speaker #7: Sorry , I .

Speaker #5: Can hit the first part . Can you repeat the second part of that question ?

Speaker #18: Yeah , the the dividend breakeven . Just just how that evolves over time through 2026 . And after .

Speaker #5: Cool maintenance CapEx , I'd say kind of just generally speaking , we've quoted about a billion , eight of maintenance CapEx plus or minus .

Speaker #5: And I think , you know , what you've seen transpire this year is we've grown production pretty meaningfully . So the base is a lot bigger , but we've reduced cost and kept well , productivity the same .

Speaker #5: So I think that plus or minus those probably offset each other . And you get to something that is in that range or slightly higher , something like that .

Speaker #5: On maintenance CapEx side . Dividend breakeven .

Speaker #4: Yeah . Break even . The goals were to to get better over time or or stay the same . If there's a proportionate increase in in our base dividend .

Speaker #4: So I think for us the business is getting better . So that should either lower our dividend break evens over time or give us greater capacity to pay out the base dividend and lower commodity prices .

Speaker #4: So I think that's a TBD capital allocation decision . But the business is getting better . So you should either be able to pay a larger base dividend with the same level of protection or lower the break even .

Speaker #18: You know , that makes a ton of sense . And then for my second question , and you guys touched on this a little bit , but regarding the additional FTE that you guys took on , and you mentioned the strength of Waha kind of in the forward curve and how waha bases closes and , you know , back half of 26 and into 27 .

Speaker #18: What was the advantage of signing up for the FTE versus just hedging hedging out the forward curve ?

Speaker #7: Yeah , I mean .

Hey, good morning guys. And thanks for taking my questions.

For my first 1 on slide 5, you highlight leveraging AI, to expand play boundaries, I wanted to ask if you could expand on this and then more broadly, how do you see the opportunity for organic inventory expansion, through editions of secondary zones from here?

Yeah, look, I I if you look at, I think Eddie county is a good example of, you know, we have been both 1 of the most active buyers of acreage and also 1 of the most active Drillers in Eddie County over the last few years. And so, as such, we have a significant information advantage over really anyone. In Eddie County, you know, we, we get

Production information, uh, logs incremental seismic information, faster than anyone else does just given everything that we drill is, you know, there's a 6-month plus lag. But before its public and what our team's been able to do is just kind of the workflows that we had internally, which may have previously taken weeks, or months to to get incorporated into passing that through to the A and D team or passing that through to the next development package. I'd say a lot of these large language models, allow us to do that in minutes and so really it's just speeding up the the passing of information across our team to to something that's kind of more real time and that allows all the different groups, the the land team, the BD team.

the drilling team, the police team engineering, team Etc, to kind of benefit from what truly is an informational advantage that we have albeit short term, uh,

and then with new zones, I'd say that that's 1 that is

Unique. I I'd say to some degree of we are seeing tons of shallow and deep but newer zones drilled across the New Mexico Delaware and New Mexico. Delaware has a a huge benefit of you know state and federal leases don't have Pew Clauses when you drill 1, well you hold all depths basically forever which is I'd say unique to New Mexico and given permanent resources, deep inventory, position of, kind of the same benches. We've drilled over the last few years. I'd say that is not a huge part of our program and we have the benefit of getting to kind of, wait, watch and see. And so, we've had a, I'd say, a ton of organic inventory expansion, via offset, operators drilling programs that it's, it's honestly the cheapest way to go. You know, add inventory is to kind of let others do it for you around us. Um, I I think you'll see that we'll drill call it.

5 or 10 wells a year and kind of the more

Upside or kind of organic inventory expansion benches. But for the most part, we've had the luxury of getting to kind of

Sit back and let that get proven up by people around us and I think that's 1 of the things. That's so,

Special about being in the Delaware Basin is that the the rate of new inventory, editions really hasn't slowed over the last decade like every year. It seems like PR and offset operators, finding a, a new Zone and, and not just a new Zone. I think the zones that were were discovering the zones that were delineating actually compete with capital with the, with the best parts of the Basin. So it's not like we're finding secondary and tertiary zones, that, that are marginal. We're finding new zones that can compete for capital de 1. And and we think that's a really big difference and and what we think is the the best and most exciting base in in North American enp.

Great color. I appreciate it.

For my follow-up, staying on slide 5, could you expand on the microseismic asthma analysis? And then, maybe more specifically, to what degree are you altering the asthma to optimize completion efficiency relative to the analysis?

Yeah, I'd say.

They're long, and how to leverage it. But I mean, on a, you know,

Not a large percentage but on some amount of our program we'll go ahead and and run micro seismic and microphones to to really understand where fracks are going. And and really the goal is just to to optimize our design, we want to you know pump pump more or or stimulate more where the rock is good and we don't want to go waste a bunch of capital in places where recoveries will not be as good. And so I think what you're starting to see is just the incorporation of that.

In the business, both either increasing recoveries in some instances or just lowering costs in others. Um,

I’d say the micro size has been around a long time, but the use of it and the way that people are.

Using it today is slightly better and more efficient.

I appreciate it there.

Thank you.

Thank you. Okay, there are no further questions at this time. I will now hand the call back to will hickey for the closing remarks.

Thank you. Um, as you can

Ways to improve the business each and every day. Given our high quality asset base in Fortress balance sheet, we believe we can continue this execution and value creation. Going forward in any commodity price environment. Thanks to everyone for joining the call today and following the puran resources story.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference has now ended. Thank you all for joining. You may all disconnect your lines.

Q3 2025 Permian Resources Corp Earnings Call

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Permian Resources

Earnings

Q3 2025 Permian Resources Corp Earnings Call

PR

Thursday, November 6th, 2025 at 3:00 PM

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