Q3 2025 GFL Environmental Inc Earnings Call

Speaker #1: Hello everyone . Thank you for attending today's JFL third Quarter 2020 Earnings Call . My name is Ken , and I'll be your moderator today .

Speaker #1: All eyes will be muted during the presentation portion of the call with an opportunity for questions and answers at the end . If you would like to ask a question , please press star one on your telephone keypad .

Speaker #1: We will limit to one question and one follow up . I would now like to pass the conference over to your host , Patrick Dovigi .

Speaker #1: The CEO and founder of JFL . Please go ahead .

Speaker #2: Thank you and good morning . I would like to welcome everyone to today's call , and thank you for joining us this morning .

Speaker #2: We will be reviewing our results for the third quarter and updating our guidance for the full year 2025 . I am joined this morning by Luke Pelosi , our CFO , who will take us through our forward looking disclaimer before we get into the details .

Speaker #3: Thank you Patrick . Good morning everyone , and thank you for joining . We have filed our earnings press release , which includes important information .

Speaker #3: The press release is available on our website . During this call , we will be making some forward looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S.

Speaker #3: securities laws , including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate may occur in the future . These forward looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties , including those set out in our filings with the Canadian and U.S.

Speaker #3: securities regulators . Any forward looking statement is not a guarantee of future performance and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward looking statements .

Speaker #3: These forward looking statements speak only as of today's date , and we do not assume any obligation to update these statements , whether as a result of new information , future events and developments , or otherwise .

Speaker #3: This call will include a discussion of certain non IFRS measures , a reconciliation of these non IFRS measures can be found in our filings with the Canadian and US securities regulators .

Speaker #3: I will now turn the call back over to Patrick .

Speaker #2: Thank you Luke . Once again I want to start by thanking our incredible employees whose commitment drove another quarter of exceptional performance . Our results exceeded expectations from top to bottom .

Speaker #2: For the quarter . We achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in our company's history at 31.6% . All of this was accomplished despite a challenging macro backdrop and an incremental commodity related headwind .

Speaker #2: As I said last quarter , we view the consistent delivery of record setting results even in the face of challenges . As a continued demonstration of the quality of our asset base , the effectiveness of our value creation strategies , and the resilience of our business model near double digit top line growth is driven by the continued success of our pricing strategies .

Speaker #2: The impact from our disciplined rigor on price , cost spread , harvesting , pricing opportunities related to ancillary surcharges , and incremental price discovery opportunities , as well as the ramping and other contract renewals were apparent in the quarter and position us now to expect pricing for the full year of 6% .

Speaker #2: Industry leading volume performance also contributed to the top line growth . MSW volumes and the ongoing tailwind from our recent EPR investments more than offset the impact of softer construction orientated activity .

Speaker #2: Lower manufacturing and industrial collection . C and D landfill and special waste volumes . We continue to see broader economic uncertainty impacting the level of activity in these areas of our market , but remain well positioned to participate in upside when these volumes inevitably return .

Speaker #2: Operational costs . As a percentage of revenue trended lower in the quarter . In response to our continued improvements in labor turnover and our ongoing focus on cost discipline process optimization , and the realization of self-help opportunities across our portfolio .

Speaker #2: The effectiveness of these cost efficiencies , cost efficiencies is seen in the margin line where we once again delivered an industry leading 90 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion .

Speaker #2: Luke will take you through the detailed bridge , but when you factor in the impact of commodity prices and credits realized in the year , we realized over 250 basis points of underlying margin expansion with each passing quarter , we are proving out the businesses ability to meet and exceed the industry leading margin expansion targets .

Speaker #2: We laid out in our Investor Day presentation . We also remain highly confident in the targets . We set out at our Investor Day for M&A .

Speaker #2: Year to date , we have deployed nearly 650 million into acquisitions , including approximately 50 million deployed subsequent to quarter end . We have several incremental deals in process and will deploy incremental capital into M&A before year end .

Speaker #2: Our M&A pipeline remains very active and anticipate transactions will close in the first half of next year as well . The rollover impact of these transactions provides us with significant growth tailwinds as we head into 2026 .

Speaker #2: The strength of the base business performance and the anticipated contribution from M&A allow us to raise full year guidance for the second time this year .

Speaker #2: Luke will provide you with those details in the quarter . We also completed the previously discussed recapitalization of GIP by partnering with ECP , a leading investor in critical infrastructure .

Speaker #2: The transaction value GIP at $4.25 billion , returned approximately 585 million to GIP shareholders and added 175 million to the balance sheet to fund future growth .

Speaker #2: Since our original investment in GIP in 2022 , I have consistently expressed my belief that GIP would be a vehicle for significant value creation for GFL shareholders .

Speaker #2: The recapitalization back in 2022 valued our original investment at $250 million and at over 1.1 billion , returning nearly four and a half times just over in three years .

Speaker #2: I believe this is yet another reflection of Gfl's strength in the management team and the effectiveness of our strategies to create longer shareholder value .

Speaker #2: GFL received 200 million of the shareholder distribution and continues to own 30% of the equity of GIP . That will allow us to participate in what we expect to be continued value creation from GIP business .

Speaker #2: We are pleased with the valuation we realized on IP and environmental Services transaction earlier this year , but currently see a significant dislocation in the value of GFL share price and therefore see share repurchases as an attractive opportunity to deploy capital .

Speaker #2: We repurchased 350 million of shares in the third quarter , and nearly 2.8 billion of shares year to date . Going forward , we will continue to be opportunistic on executing share buybacks .

Speaker #2: I will now pass the call over to Luke , who will walk you through in the quarter in more detail , and then I'll share some closing comments before we open it up for Q&A .

Speaker #3: Thanks , Patrick . Consolidated revenue for the quarter grew 9% over the prior year , driven by a 50 basis point sequential acceleration in pricing to 6.3% and 100 basis points in positive volume , which more than overcame the headwinds from commodity prices and fuel surcharges that were even greater than anticipated .

Speaker #3: The accelerated realization of incremental price discovery opportunities that we outlined at Investor Day is increasing our full year price growth expectations . Another 25 basis points to around 6% .

Speaker #3: Even when excluding the pricing impacts from large scale contract renewals , both in collection and recycling processing , we continue to see pricing in excess of our internal cost of inflation , driving appropriate returns on invested capital .

Speaker #3: Volumes grew 100 basis points as the benefits of recent growth investments and improved MSW volumes offset the ongoing softness seen in the broader macro environment .

Speaker #3: Volumes were up 5% in Canada and 0.9% behind the prior year . In the US , inclusive of 3% lower C and D and 9% lower special waste volumes .

Speaker #3: While Q4 is expected to see negative volumes on a tough hurricane cleanup comp , we remain well positioned to benefit from a broader economic recovery .

Speaker #3: Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 31.6% , the highest in our company's history , and ahead of our internal expectations . Commodity prices , which slid over 20% sequentially from Q2 and were down over 30% year over year , continued to be a drag on margins , M&A and the Non-recurrence of ITC's recognized in the prior year comparative quarter , were also headwinds .

Speaker #3: Whereas RNG and fuel prices were tailwinds . Excluding these items , underlying solid waste margins expanded 250 basis points . Adjusted free cash flow was $181 million better than plan on account of the outperformance of adjusted EBITDA and the timing of CapEx , partially offset by changes in working capital items .

Speaker #3: With the continued strength of our operational performance , we are able to raise our guidance for the year . Yet again . And now expect to be at or above the high end of the previously reported ranges .

Speaker #3: Specifically , we now expect full year revenue to be between 6.575 and 6.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be about 1.975 billion . Over $50 million , more in nearly 3% higher than our original guidance for the year on a constant currency basis , adjusted free cash flow remains at 750 million as the incremental adjusted EBITDA is off set by incremental working capital and cash interest , while the incremental M&A expected to be completed before the end of the year , will have minimal contribution to the 2025 results , it will add to the nearly 150 basis points of acquisition revenue roll already in hand .

Speaker #3: Additionally , the continued ramp of EPR in 26 should add another 75 basis points of incremental revenue growth in next year . And while we await until February to provide our detailed guidance for 26 , we remain confident in our ability to deliver on Gfl's multiyear growth trajectory that we laid out at our Investor Day .

Speaker #3: I will now pass the call back to Patrick , who will provide some closing comments before Q&A today .

Speaker #2: We're keeping it short and sweet as we think the results speak for themselves . Our focus is singular in our path . Forward is clear even in the face of uncertain economic environment .

Speaker #2: The setup for 2026 is simple and clear . We are very confident in our operating plan . As you have witnessed quarter after quarter , our M&A pipeline has never been stronger and we now have the balance sheet that allows us to keep repurchasing our own shares at what we believe to be dislodged .

Speaker #2: Prices . I will now turn the call over to the operator to open the line for Q&A .

Speaker #1: Thank you . If you would like to ask a question , please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad . To remove your question , please press star , followed by two .

Speaker #1: Again , to ask a question , please press star one . As a reminder . If you are using a speakerphone , please remember to pick up your handset before asking a question and there will be only one question and one follow up .

Speaker #1: We'll pause you briefly as questions are registered . Thank you . We have our first question from taken from LBC . Please go ahead .

Speaker #3: Great .

Speaker #4: Thanks and good morning . So just on the the guidance update , can you maybe just walk us through some of the puts and takes you reflected in the guidance uptake ?

Speaker #4: I think there's some upside in the Q3 results . But just wondering how you took into account M&A effects and some of the moving pieces and sort of how comfortable you are with the guidance uptake .

Speaker #4: Thanks .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Hey it's Luke . Good morning . Great question . Obviously something that in this environment we're very pleased to be able to come for the second time this year .

Speaker #3: And push the numbers even further up . If you think about the year as a whole , right . Initially at the top line , we had guided at the midpoint about 6.525 billion of revenue .

Speaker #3: And if you use the constant currency FX , that would have equated to about 6.625 billion for the year as a whole where we're at today .

Speaker #3: But roughly $100 million incremental . So I'll just take the translational impact of FX out of the equation for a second . If you think about that 100 , really what you have happening at the pricing line , you know , we've now breaking pricing up to close to 6% , nearly 75 bips higher than where we started .

Speaker #3: So you have sort of 40 to $50 million of incremental pricing action as a good guy , that's largely offset by the fuel surcharge and commodity related headwinds that you've seen through the industry for the year .

Speaker #3: Pretty equally offset . So you have about 40 to $50 million negative coming from that . Then you have the volume story now , volume for the year is going to be plus or -25 Bips .

Speaker #3: We're pleased to be able to report that we're going to be slightly positive on volume , but really within that number , again , you have puts and takes are .

Speaker #3: Ramping has outperformed and we're enjoying excess benefit from some transitional contracts that have come on faster than anticipated . And obviously offsetting that is some of the C and D and construction oriented materials that Patrick alluded to in his opening remarks .

Speaker #3: And consistent with the industry as a whole . And then you have the M&A , right . So very pleased that we've been able to acquire about $200 million of annualized revenue for the year , you know , roughly , you're going to recognize half of that in year , and half is going to sort of roll over .

Speaker #3: So that's really , you know , driving the majority of that raise . But very interesting . And happy to see the benefits of our strategies .

Speaker #3: Being able to overcome the real industry wide headwinds that , you know , have been present throughout 2025 .

Speaker #4: Okay , great . And then just for my follow up , I guess we've maybe just recap where we are on the EPR runway .

Speaker #4: It looks like it's starting to contribute . Maybe if you can just walk us through kind of the wins you have , how much of that is starting to roll in and how much more is likely to come through 2026 and beyond .

Speaker #4: Thanks very much .

Speaker #3: Yeah . So just continuing with what I just said . I mean , this year we've had sort of great outperformance coming from EPR and what we spoken about for each quarter is how the Canadian both price and volume has been enjoying uplifts as all these EPR contracts are coming online .

Speaker #3: As I alluded to , we're seeing transitional arrangements whereby our customer base is asking us to do larger quantities of volume or start doing work earlier than initially anticipated .

Speaker #3: And we're therefore enjoying and acceleration of the realization of EPR benefits in 25 on amounts that were otherwise going to be coming in 26 .

Speaker #3: Now , where we sit and what I said , what it's looking like 26 , we're going to have an incremental roughly 100 basis point of top line rollover from incremental EPR revenues coming online , offset by the reduction of some of these transitional contracts that I spoke to .

Speaker #3: And so you're going to get this net 75 basis point impact rolling into 26 . As we kept alluding to , there's still smaller opportunities that we continue to pursue , which could be additive to those numbers .

Speaker #3: But feeling really good to be entering 26 . In addition to our normal course , organic growth , normal course M&A , to have this incremental tailwind of roughly 75 Bips at the revenue line , which , as we said before , will be margin accretive to the business as a whole .

Speaker #3: And certainly to our Canadian segment , which is very quickly closing the gap on that blended margin . And you're seeing it consistently print at north of 30% margins .

Speaker #1: Thank you very much . We have our next question from Kelvin Chan from CIBC . Please go ahead .

Speaker #4: Hey , thanks . Thanks for taking my question and congrats on a on a good Q3 there . I know we'll wait till I guess February when you provide 2026 guidance , but maybe if I just look at some of the moving parts and I appreciate some of the top line comments you provided .

Speaker #4: Luke . But if I look at your run rate EBITDA at the end of Q3 and I know there's a bunch of moving parts in there , but I take that and I look look back to your Investor Day in terms of the growth you expect organically and what you can get from an M&A perspective , it seems like a run rate EBITDA of two point just over 2.1 billion could be close to 2.3 billion .

Speaker #4: Next year , made some comment on the they need to be completed to get there , but just I guess how you think about that directionally , just given the strength you're exiting Q3 and 2025 at .

Speaker #3: Yeah , great question Kevin . Thank you for the comments on the quarter . Look , the run rate number being reported right now is a little bit skewed by virtue of the inclusion of some of these large EPR collection contracts .

Speaker #3: It's you're actually getting that number included in your run rate metric this year , even though the sort of performance will come throughout 2026 .

Speaker #3: So I think to grow organically off that number , you effectively double counting a little bit . But the way I would think about next year and you know , without forcing us to give you our guidance , you know what we've said is we're going to enjoy periods of outsized margin expansion over the near term as we execute on our strategies and realize the benefits of the self-help levers .

Speaker #3: So the guidance we've just given for this year , you're ending at 30% margin , right ? I think the revenue building blocks we just gave you get to a revenue number that's , you know , north of seven , you know , starts with the seven .

Speaker #3: And a margin expansion on that outsized . I think , you know , you should be banking on something north of 50 basis points .

Speaker #3: So when you put that all together I think on the 1975 of EBITDA that we are guiding for the current year , there should be a double digit growth number coming on that .

Speaker #3: You know , consistent with what we said in Investor Day . Now , as Patrick said , there's a very healthy pipeline of stuff that we're actively working on .

Speaker #3: And , you know , any incremental acquisition activity would be additive to that . So I think if you take the building blocks , you can , you know , where you sit today , see a 10% EBITDA growth before considering , you know , the impact of any incremental M&A or the recovery of some of the industry wide headwinds , namely commodities and volumes , as all of that will be upside to where we sit today .

Speaker #4: That's that's that's extremely helpful . And maybe just a follow up here . I noticed your G&A intensity or as a percentage of revenue , it was like my math is correct , down about 80 basis points quarter over quarter .

Speaker #4: And I think that's the best we've seen since you've gone public . I know you've been shifting the portfolio a bit here , but just maybe thoughts on on on trends over the medium term here .

Speaker #4: It does feel like you're starting to get some of that cost absorption benefit . You talked about at your Investor Day .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks for noticing , Kevin . But I mean , what we're excited about , it's not just on the line . You're right .

Speaker #3: You had that 7080 basis point improvement at SG&A . But if you look at labor and benefits , you know , our main cost category , you have 40 basis point improvement .

Speaker #3: There . You know , the R and M cost , you had about a 50 basis point improvement . So it's really across all the cost categories .

Speaker #3: And you're seeing that coming through . And it's a function of obviously improving labor turnover , which is you know is a narrative you've heard throughout the industry .

Speaker #3: And we're certainly realizing that as well , which is certainly coming through in the cost . But it's also just leveraging the infrastructure and cost base that we've put in place .

Speaker #3: I mean , as we spoke about before , effectively , our corporate cost segment , which was trending down towards 3% with the divestiture of yes , jumped back up north of 4% , and now you're getting the operating leverage both organically as you execute on our price driven growth strategy , but also integrating .

Speaker #3: Right , because we don't really need to add to that supportive , shared services and broader executive infrastructure to accommodate the incremental M&A contribution that's coming online .

Speaker #3: And so you're going to see the operating leverage . You know , I think we're set up to print the corporate segment at a sort of 4% of total revenue this year .

Speaker #3: And that's going to continue to trend down . And I think that's part of our excitement as we go forward over the near to medium term , is that we have the cost in place and the scalability , and we can now execute on both our organic and inorganic growth initiatives and be able to leverage these , you know , relatively fixed cost bases .

Speaker #3: So thanks for the question, Kevin.

Speaker #1: Thank you . We'll have our next question from Stephanie Moore from Jefferies . Please go ahead .

Speaker #5: Hi . Good morning . Thank you . Now , Patrick , I think you've been pretty open about your view on just the underlying value of shares .

Speaker #5: And I think you've taken pretty decisive actions to unlock value , whether it's selling . Yes or GIP . And anything else here .

Speaker #5: So as we think about where the business stands today , are there any other actions that you would consider that you believe would further unlock value for shareholders ?

Speaker #5: Thanks .

Speaker #2: Yeah . I mean , I think when you sort of sit and look at it , you know , everyone says , you know , what's the relative value of the business .

Speaker #2: And I think , I think we clearly demonstrated , you know , that the multiple that these businesses are trading at today , when you look at the crown jewels of all of our asset bases , and I'm not just talking about GFL specifically , but just the industry in general , and where valuations have trended , I think , you know , we've been handed the industry's been handed a bit of a bad deck of cards up today .

Speaker #2: I mean , if you look at the results of all the companies across the sector , even in the face of this economic environment , you know , it's certainly overdone in my view .

Speaker #2: And if you look at the valuations in the private market and private capital and the returns that can be generated in the private markets , I mean , that's what should drive , you know , what the multiples of these businesses trade for .

Speaker #2: And I think today it's clearly not right . And I think that's why , you know , even you know , we execute on these transactions exited those , you know , two businesses and kept meaningful equity stakes .

Speaker #2: But you know , 15 to 16 times for two businesses that I would say , you know , slightly inferior to the solid waste business that Remainco that being said , it provides a great opportunity .

Speaker #2: And as you've seen , we bought back , you know , you know , we anticipate that we'd buy back sort of between 2 and 2.3 billion in stock at the beginning of the year .

Speaker #2: And we've acquired, we bought back $2.8 billion, $2.9 billion. And me, as the largest individual shareholder, I think that's the best use of our capital today.

Speaker #2: And that's why we did that . That being said , you know , we're obviously executing on continued M&A pipeline . And I think my closing remarks , I basically said what I said , which is very straightforward plan moving forward .

Speaker #2: We're very we're very confident in our operating plan . We have a balance sheet now that we can execute on share buybacks with what we believe to be dislocated , share prices and our M&A pipeline .

Speaker #2: Since going public has never been better . So , you know , I think in the Investor Day presentation , we , you know , had a base number of sort of spending 750 to $1 billion .

Speaker #2: I think next year will be an outsized year again , I think . Well in excess of $1 billion . So we've teed that up , coupled together with the rollover .

Speaker #2: I said , you know , at the end of the day , this the stock will move at the appropriate time . Obviously , we don't control the share price , but when we see opportunities like this , we're going to lean in pretty heavily to own more of the company .

Speaker #2: And I want to own more of the company at these prices .

Speaker #5: Great . Well , appreciate the time . I'll pass it on . Thank you everybody . Thank you .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question from Trevor Romeo from William Blair . Please go ahead .

Speaker #6: Hi . Good morning guys . Thanks so much for for taking the questions . I wanted to maybe dig in a little bit more on your price metric for this quarter , because it did seem a little different than the typical seasonal cadence throughout the year .

Speaker #6: Going up 50 basis points relative to last quarter . So maybe I missed it in the prepared remarks , but was there like a specific portion of your book that had really good results this quarter or any mix impacts ?

Speaker #6: Or maybe you could just dive into price a little bit more ? And what drove the improvement ?

Speaker #3: Yeah . Great question Trevor . And you . Absolutely right . It does sort of defy the typical seasonal cadence . And that's really driven by sort of two pieces .

Speaker #3: So one is EPR . And you know , as we're going through this transitional period , we are starting to have new contracts come on .

Speaker #3: And recognizing the price on that, on a sort of atypical calendar perspective. And so you're seeing the pricing of that come through.

Speaker #3: And , you know , the Canadian pricing was a sort of high sixes number for for the period . And , you know , really getting benefit from EPR coming through , defying the normal core seasonal cadence .

Speaker #3: The other piece is, you know, another part that we're really excited about is just the execution of the strategies that we sort of spoke so much about at our Investor Day.

Speaker #3: And this is really , you know , realizing the latent benefit within our existing book , primarily related to ancillary surcharges . And we sort of talked about , you know , we are actively going to be ensuring that we're sort of paid the appropriate rates on the services we provide .

Speaker #3: And we are out there executing on that strategy . And so you're seeing that start to sort of ramp , which is providing incremental sort of support to our blended pricing line and something that , you know , is setting us up with a high degree of conviction for visibility , of pricing as we go into 26 .

Speaker #3: So I'd say it's both of those things together . Trevor . That's underlying is normal course seasonality . And then you have these bolstering in the second half of the year .

Speaker #6: Okay . Thanks , Luke . That is helpful . And then for my follow up , maybe just ask for an update on labor turnover .

Speaker #6: I think you touched on costs a little bit earlier , but maybe labor turnover specifically has been a good story across the industry .

Speaker #6: What kind of improvement have you seen so far this year ? What do you think is possible next year , and how does that translate into the kind of wage inflation that you're seeing now and maybe heading into next year ?

Speaker #2: Yeah , I think Patrick speaking , I think obviously it's trended in a direction that is very favorable . And , you know , it's the unquantifiable cost with the lower turnover .

Speaker #2: You know , numbers that , you know , that are relevant to the overall PNL . I productivity just overall sort of performance , etc.

Speaker #2: . But today we're sitting we're sitting at , you know , high teens today in the voluntary turnover line , which again , as you know in Covid that sort of ramped up to , you know , north of 30% .

Speaker #2: If you look at historical averages pre-COVID , we were always around sort of 17 , 18 , 19% . And that's basically where we're sort of sitting today .

Speaker #2: We think , you know , obviously in this macro environment that probably has the ability to to trend lower as labor pool have broadened .

Speaker #2: And a lot of the market , not everyone market is the same . But , you know , we still have markets where , you know , our best drivers are expecting above average increases .

Speaker #2: And you know , the driver pools are , you know , shrinking for high quality drivers . But that being said , we feel very comfortable in the voluntary turnover line of of sort of high teens is very comfortable .

Speaker #2: If we can trend towards mid-teens , obviously just going to be further improvement on the sort of margin line for us .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question from Shlomo H . Rosenbaum from Starfield . Please go ahead .

Speaker #7: Hi . Thank you very much . Thank you for taking my questions . It's , you know , a really good quarter . And I'm trying to just get underneath the numbers a little bit more just to understand kind of the organic growth trends in Canada versus the US .

Speaker #7: I don't know if you could parse a little bit more about what's going on . You saw organic growth in the US trended down a little bit .

Speaker #7: I'm not sure how much of that was commodities prices coming down , but I was wondering if you could just kind of unpack some of the trends there and how that translated to the organic growth rates of the the two different , you regions .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Thanks , Luke . Speaking . Great question . As you see in the headline , reported numbers across the segments , Canada did enjoy a higher overall organic growth number than the US .

Speaker #3: If you break the pieces apart , look at the pricing . You know , both markets are continuing to sort of price . You know at the levels we need to be .

Speaker #3: And I think both pricing in Canada and the US was sort of north of 6% . I think low sixes in the US and high sixes in Canada .

Speaker #3: And that's what was blending to the general 6.3 . I'd say the uplift in Canada was really driven by the EPR contribution and X that Canada would have actually been slightly lower than the US , as some of the sort of ancillary surcharge recognition we were saying is actually being realized in the US at a faster rate than sort of Canada .

Speaker #3: Volume is really the differentiator between the two . Again , Canada positive volume once again , and it is really being supported by EPR , not entirely , because even Canada still enjoyed positive volume , but I think EPR contributed about an incremental $15 million in Canada for the quarter , which certainly was was a great support to another sort of , you know , sluggish macro , I'd say the US , US had negative volume for the quarter .

Speaker #3: It's really a function of the I'd say landfill and special waste volumes a little bit on the collection side , you know , the special waste in C and D , while soft , I'd say on a macro basis , you can still enjoy volumes geographically if you happen to be in an area where there is activity going on , there still is some activity , just muted .

Speaker #3: And I highlight that because , for instance , our Canadian business actually had positive special waste volumes in the quarter , whereas our US business was was negative , but a -3% C and and -8% special waste in the US .

Speaker #3: I'd say , you know , just sometimes luck of where your site is sort of located . But you know , take away those things around the edges .

Speaker #3: I think underlying we continue to see similar sort of organic trends in each of our markets , and it is that there is a softness in the broader sort of manufacturing and related industrial expansionary sort of CapEx spend .

Speaker #3: And you're seeing that in your volumes . But , you know , underlying our market selection continues to sort of bolster our volumes by being in the demographic regions where people are moving to our strategic investments in items of EPR and other are providing volumetric tailwinds .

Speaker #3: And our pricing strategies continue to remain strong , regardless of the broader macro environment .

Speaker #7: Okay , great . And then I'm just trying to map the for q EBITDA guidance . The implied going to the top end of the range , I guess from the midpoint would be 12.5 million .

Speaker #7: You've already exceeded expectations in the third quarter by 10 million . That leaves you kind of two and a half . You've done incremental 25 million in M&A .

Speaker #7: Looks like pricing is better . Incremental FX tailwinds . Can you just give me the puts and takes . It just seems seems to me that you're you know , there's a certain conservatism that might be in there .

Speaker #7: And maybe that's it . Or maybe there's other headwinds on the commodities or things that I'm not , you know , fully able to to calculate .

Speaker #3: Yeah . So , Shlomo , I think the the issue is in these seasonal climates like Canada and other , it's difficult to just say whatever your H2 guidance was , if you have outperformance in Q3 , therefore , all carries forward .

Speaker #3: It's going back to my comment I made on Canadian special waste volumes . You know , we enjoyed a very strong quarter in Q3 and that may now actually result in some sort of , you softness in Q4 .

Speaker #3: So I don't think it's appropriate to roll forward that . Ten obviously , we have some sort of conservatism as we want to make sure that we can sort of deliver , but commodities is an incremental headwind coming against you .

Speaker #3: You know , the broader sort of volumetric story doesn't seem to be , you know , improving any time soon . And you got to really sort of tough comp that , you last Q4 , you did enjoy a whole bunch of volume related to hurricane and other sort of special waste cleanup that , you know , we're not seeing sort of materialize .

Speaker #3: So , you know , I think it's an appropriate degree of guidance . Is there a little bit of conservatism in there ? Sure .

Speaker #3: We hope to be able to , you know , do better versus doing worse . But I would factor in the commodity and just that timing , cadence before , you know , just extrapolating the Q3 results to an expected outcome for the year as a whole .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question comes from Konark Gupta from Scotiabank . Please go ahead .

Speaker #8: Thanks , operator . Good morning , everyone . I wanted to touch on the sustainability targets you guys set out at the Investor Day , specifically as pertains to RNG .

Speaker #8: I guess . I mean , the commodity prices , right ? Like they've been volatile this year so far . And I know do you expect for next year ?

Speaker #8: But I mean , it doesn't seem like the wins are trending at the range that you guys were assuming back then . Maybe the rebound next year .

Speaker #8: But you know , do you need to reevaluate any of these R&D projects or investments as you as you consider the current commodity prices ?

Speaker #2: Yeah , I think again , everyone got a little bit and everyone seems to tend to forget , you know , where where the Rin prices were when we actually embarked on these projects .

Speaker #2: I mean , we underwrote these projects at a 225 Rin . Yes , over the last couple of years , you know , Rins under the last administration ran to 3 to 3 and a quarter .

Speaker #2: You know , and that just made the profitability of those and paybacks of those RNG build outs . Look that much better . But that being said , we always underwrote a 225 .

Speaker #2: So we still feel very confident about where we are in terms of returns on invested capital coupled together with obviously bonus depreciation and other things that we're able to use on some of the build outs .

Speaker #2: Just make the returns look , you know , that much better . You know , as we articulated last quarter , you know , we basically we we did slow things down a little bit .

Speaker #2: Just ensuring that the administration wasn't going to make drastic changes to the program , which they didn't . So , yes , we moved some of our RNG progress build out 6 to 12 months , sort of to the right .

Speaker #2: But , you know , from our perspective , we are we do have plans now to sort of ramp that back up . You know , back half of this year as we started and now into next year .

Speaker #2: So we will restart that program . But from our perspective at a 225 , Rin returns on invested capital . Very good paybacks are still , you know , sort of 3 to 3 and a half years , you know , versus the one and a half to two years we were getting when Rins rent at 3 to 3 and a quarter .

Speaker #2: But you know , if you look at the forecast of , you know what a lot smarter people than me are forecasting in terms of the Rin program .

Speaker #2: You know people are forecasting back to high twos , low threes over the next couple of years . But that being said , our investment case is based on a 2.25 Rin .

Speaker #2: And even on a 225 Rin , we feel very comfortable about where the returns are at . That .

Speaker #8: Okay , that's great . Thanks , Pat . And Luke , maybe for you , I think on leverage side of things , I mean , creeped up obviously in Q3 .

Speaker #8: I think you were expecting to now finish the year around those levels . Roughly speaking . But in terms of philosophy for leverage ratio , I think you guys have , you know , like the buyback opportunity has increased .

Speaker #8: Now , given the stock price . And , you know , the M&A kind of remains pretty high . I mean , would you be comfortable kind of like remaining in this range like low to mid three or something for for the foreseeable future .

Speaker #8: Like as long as you have these opportunities .

Speaker #2: Yeah I think , you know , actually articulated Investor Day as we continue articulate , we'll be opportunistic low to mid threes is where we where we want to be given the free cash flow generation .

Speaker #2: The free cash flow ramp over the next couple of years . We feel very comfortable operating in that space . And we have ultimate operating flexibility .

Speaker #2: As we said , one to buy back shares and number two to execute on the M&A pipeline .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question from Brian Burgmeier from Citi . Please go ahead .

Speaker #9: Hey , good morning . Thank you for taking the questions . Maybe just following up on RNG Luke , I heard you call it the benefit for 2026 from the M&A rollover and the EPR .

Speaker #9: Are we still expecting another kind of incremental step up from RNG next year ? And then I think there's maybe a larger step up into 2027 .

Speaker #9: Is that still accurate ?

Speaker #3: Yeah , Brian , thanks for the question . 26 is rather muted in terms of production volume . Now the incremental production volume really has .

Speaker #3: You had facilities come online in 25 . They're now fully ramped is probably offset by today's Rin pricing . So modest incremental amount in 26 .

Speaker #3: But it really is 27 into 28 . When you get the sort of next leg up . So you know , we'll put a pin in , you know , our guide , depending on where Rin prices are at at the beginning of the year , when we speak in sort of February .

Speaker #3: But , you know , the expectation where I sit today is the modest incremental units of RNG will be offset by the , you know , year over year price declines .

Speaker #3: And it's really 27 and 28 where we'll get that next leg up in tailwinds .

Speaker #9: Okay . Yeah . Makes makes sense . Thanks for that detail . And then just just one more question for me . You've spoken a lot about price on the call .

Speaker #9: But maybe just any details on sort of the restricted price versus the open market price and how that sort of trended in the back half of the year .

Speaker #9: And if you have any preliminary thoughts on 26 , that would be helpful as well . Thank you . I'll turn it over .

Speaker #3: So look , I'd say blended kind of pricing . You know , is typical cadence . What you're seeing open market commercial industrials , high single digit numbers .

Speaker #3: You know your residential sort of restricted is on the lower end of mid-single digits . And then as you're getting renewals and contracts being reset to appropriate pricing for today's cost environment , you're seeing , you know , the higher end of mid-single digit touching high single digit price blending to sort of residential collection pricing in the higher end of sort of mid-single digit post collection .

Speaker #3: You know , you're seeing that sort of healthy mid-single digit sort of level . So we continue to like the industry , you know , be constructive of the narrative that we need to move our restricted pricing off of CPI related indices , as it doesn't necessarily accurately reflect our underlying cost structure .

Speaker #3: I'd say we're in the nascent stages of that migration vis a vis some of our competitors , but certainly something that we're sort of supportive of .

Speaker #3: And we'll continue to sort of move forward . But , you know , I'd say we view the pricing in our industry continue to remain rational , disciplined and sort of healthy .

Speaker #3: And I think all of us are , you know , unwilling to give away our valuable services at rates that don't provide appropriate sort of levels of return .

Speaker #3: So we're going to continue to do that . You know , as we round out the year here , we'll form a view on 2026 .

Speaker #3: Expected internal cost inflation . And you're going to see us pricing at a blended level in excess of that . In order to generate the return that the shareholder group is looking for .

Speaker #1: Thank you . We'll have our next question from James shown from TD . Please go ahead .

Speaker #6: Hey good morning guys . Yeah . I wanted .

Speaker #10: To see if you could provide a little bit more color on those cost inflation expectations for next year . Should we should we be thinking about 4% or could it be as low as 3.5% ?

Speaker #3: Hey , James . Luke speaking . I mean , we're going to wait till 26 before we form a view . I mean , where I sit today , I feel it is very squarely going to start with the four .

Speaker #3: You know , I know sort of CPI may be doing what it's doing . But when you look at labor costs across the industry , notwithstanding the current labor market , you know , those numbers are north of three on a blended labor cost number .

Speaker #3: You start thinking about the potential delayed impact of some of these tariffs or other sort of regulations starting to bleed through into spare parts and other items .

Speaker #3: You know , I think there's a very viable path where your cost inflation on those amounts is something higher than a mid-single digit number .

Speaker #3: And then again , people focus on sort of labor and labor standalone . But when you think about , you know , medical costs and other benefit costs in the US , those are accreting every year .

Speaker #3: It's something well north of 3% . So when you put that all together , I'm expecting a number that starts with a four .

Speaker #3: But we are going to wait till going to be 2026 to put a finer pin in that . James .

Speaker #10: Okay , thanks , Luke . And then just on on pricing , are you trying to , based on your earlier answer there , you're in the early stages of trying to move off CPI .

Speaker #10: Are you trying to move to CPI water , sewer , trash or or is it would you would you want like a just a 4% number or where are you trying to go with that .

Speaker #10: And then , you know , as we think about pricing next year , you're at roughly 6% this year . And you noted some benefits from EPR this year , is that I mean , I think , I think we're all expecting that number to be lower .

Speaker #10: But do those one time benefits mean we see like a a larger move , lower because you won't have as much of those EPR benefits or just if you could give any help there would be appreciated .

Speaker #3: So much so . So Jim , I'll take the I'll take the latter part and I'll pass it to Patrick . How we think strategically and , you know , moving the needle .

Speaker #2: So Canada I mean break apart Canada , the US , Canada obviously doesn't have sewer sort of water trash index . That being said , the trend we're seeing in Canada is and what we're pushing for is , you going

Speaker #2: to lose point . You know that , headline CPI is not reflective of the true cost of our business to operate our business .

Speaker #2: So what we're pushing for and a lot of the contracts are fixed price increases of , you know , high threes to 4% .

Speaker #2: If we don't see that then we're pricing it in day one . You know I think we're articulating the story to our customers that , hey you know we need this price in order to continue to be competitive and give you the best service that you've been experiencing , to keep the best drivers .

Speaker #2: And you know , that has been received fairly well . You know , this is more of a phenomenon on the sort of on the municipal collection side , as well as the landfill transfer station processing facilities , because obviously on the commercial book , you know , we can price what we need to be based on what we believe our CPI is internally at the time .

Speaker #2: But yeah , and obviously in the US , wherever we can , we obviously want to move to the , you know , more favorable index than CPI , which is not reflective of our sort of business costs .

Speaker #2: But you know , that trend is sort of happening . It's more of a West Coast phenomenon . Truthfully , in the US than it has been on the East Coast .

Speaker #2: But the we are looking for the same type of opportunities that we that exist in the West Coast move to the East Coast .

Speaker #2: And whether that's fixed pricing , whether that's moving to another index or whether it's pricing it in sort of day one , we are sort of finding that solution .

Speaker #3: And then , Jim , on your second part of your question , as you think about next year's pricing , high level . Absolutely right .

Speaker #3: This year , you're getting the benefit of the sort of EPR ramp manifesting in the pricing line , the incremental ramp next year will be manifest more in the volume line .

Speaker #3: So you can . Think between 75 to 100 basis points of this year's price is by virtue of incremental EPR ramp . So if you were to sort of back that out on the basis , you'd only be getting a portion of that next year , yes , you would be looking at a pricing level , something closer to five than the six that you're having today .

Speaker #3: Just on that math alone. But again, we'll save our detailed pricing guidance until we speak to you again in February.

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question comes from Michael Dumas from National Bank of Canada . Please go ahead .

Speaker #7: Good morning .

Speaker #10: Just going back to pricing the .

Speaker #11: Rental price , recognizing the Q3 versus Q1 . So that 60 basis points , how much of that was recognized from surcharge implementations .

Speaker #11: And again , I'm just curious how much more is there to go get . And you know , would that flow through into 2026 incremental to whatever underlying price expectation .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Hey Michael it's Luke . Thanks for the question . Look , the surcharge absolute quantity , it gets complicated as you think about sort of volumes puts or takes and volumes attracting different degree of surcharge .

Speaker #3: But holistically I think we've said in the Investor Day there was a 50 to $60 million prize . Forgive me , I might be a little off .

Speaker #3: I'm not trying to recast the guy , but whatever the number we had said in the Investor Day , I don't have it right in front of me .

Speaker #3: I think the idea was , we're going to recognize that , you know , over the next couple of years . I think we've had great success in 2025 and starting the recognition of that earlier than anticipated .

Speaker #3: And so you're seeing that come and sort of support the overall pricing number this year . But we remain , you know , well on track to realize that overall prize as it relates to ancillary charges that we had articulated over that sort of 25 through 28 period .

Speaker #11: And , Patrick , you made some remarks on first half , 26 M&A , and given the second half , 25 looks to be pretty deal heavy , I would have thought that maybe that you would be working down your M&A pipeline into the year end .

Speaker #11: But from your comments , it sounds like you're actually going the other way . And potentially entering 26 with a healthy pipeline . Is there anything specific driving the larger pipeline or more of the activity that maybe larger deals , anything you can comment on ?

Speaker #2: Yeah , I think , you know , we spent the last half or the sorry , the last quarter of 24 really focused on repatriating capital and simplifying the business , which was really coming up with a plan for the business .

Speaker #2: And , you know , completing that transaction , which was , you know , an $8 billion transaction . And then around GIP and which we always said .

Speaker #2: So we spent the first half of 25 focusing on those divestitures , which got executed . We said M&A pipeline for GFL would be , you know , back half of 25 weighted , what you're seeing .

Speaker #2: You know , we had a high level of confidence given the pipeline that we had built for stuff that was going to close in , you know .

Speaker #2: 825 or H2 or 25 . And then when I look at H1 26 again , you know , these are all opportunities that we've been working on for a long period of time .

Speaker #2: Relationships . Fostering for a long period of time sellers that want to deal with us . These are not bank run processes . These are opportunities that you know are sourced by ourselves with relationships from either myself or the team , sort of in the field and where I sit today , you know , I think as we said in our Investor Day , $750 billion would be , you know , the sort of average spend .

Speaker #2: And there'd be a year where there would be a higher level of M&A . And I think when I look at what we have teed up for H1 of next year , and then opportunities that are , you know , in the hopper , I think , you know , we're going to have a bigger year on M&A next year than we've had this year .

Speaker #2: And I think that could be , you know , you know , 50 plus percent higher than what we did this year . So we feel very comfortable with that .

Speaker #2: Again back half of 25 as you're seeing and what we've articulated has been strong . And first half of next year looks to be very strong as well .

Speaker #2: And a lot of opportunities that will backfill into the second half . So we're feeling very good about the the M&A pipeline for next year .

Speaker #2: And as I said , it's for us in the markets where we want to be again , focused on opportunities that are in existing regions where we can leverage existing infrastructure .

Speaker #2: We believe those are going to get the highest returns on invested capital for us , and that's where we're focused and that's where we're focused on executing .

Speaker #2: We're not looking to buy a business in a new geography at the moment . These are all things within the existing footprint that work with our existing footprint that we can leverage those , you know , post-collection assets and that's what we're focused on .

Speaker #1: Thank you very much . We have next question comes from Tobi Sumo from Chris . Please go ahead .

Speaker #7: Thanks . Want to .

Speaker #12: Follow up on that M&A comment for next year ? I'll steer clear pricing for now given the more permissive US antitrust posture . Is that a factor that could lead to larger deals for GFL or maybe within the industry over the next three years ?

Speaker #2: I think if you were thinking about a mega merger , now is probably the time . I don't think from my perspective , much has changed in terms of , you know , the HSR and the regulatory environment under the old administration , the new administration , that being said , 95 to 99% of deals that we do don't even require HSR approval because they're under the the threshold .

Speaker #2: So , you know , the lion's share . What we do is following under HSR . Yeah , we might have 1 or 2 that exceed .

Speaker #2: But you know , from from where we sit today , we haven't seen much of a change . But I think if someone was , you know , trying wanting to do something much larger , this would probably be the administration to do it under .

Speaker #5: Appreciate that .

Speaker #12: And then curious what you think the upper bound as a percent of sales . You think the business can have associated with commodity related areas within the portfolio and still warrant that that higher multiple versus the current dislocated price ?

Speaker #2: Yeah , I mean , commodity commodities today are sort of a relatively de minimis number . I mean , not only for us , but sort of for the rest of the industry .

Speaker #2: I mean , what do you have going in that bucket ? You have RNG today that would have a little bit of volatility , and then you have sort of all the recycling volumes .

Speaker #2: You know , I think today where we all sit today , I think the entire industry that sort of sub 10% , these are , you know , very good margin accretive assets that we want to own regardless .

Speaker #2: And I think most importantly , meet the return on invested capital thresholds that , you know , we all basically run our businesses on .

Speaker #2: So , you know , from my perspective again , does that do you want to have that number 20% ? Absolutely not . But anywhere sort of in the 10 to 15% range , I think is more than comfortable , particularly with the structures that we all have today .

Speaker #1: Thank you very much . We have our next question from Chris Murray from ATB Capital Markets . Please go ahead .

Speaker #13: Yeah . Thanks , folks . Good morning . You know , turning back to some of the self-help initiatives and thinking about this , go back to the Investor Day .

Speaker #13: At the time , your CEO had been in the chair for about a month , you know , maybe had a little more time to think about the operation .

Speaker #13: And , look , there was all kinds of levers . There was technology , there was turnover , pricing strategies , things like that .

Speaker #13: But but just thinking about , you know , ideas as we go into 2026 , you know , where do you feel you are on these self-help levers at this particular point ?

Speaker #13: And there are other are there other new opportunities you're starting to uncover or think about doing ? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is where where we are in the margin kind of catch up or progression against the rest of the industry .

Speaker #13: And anything you think you can do on the MSW business to to drive margins over the next couple of years .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Hey Chris , it's great question . And you know , something that hopefully we're demonstrating , we're sort of delivering on quarter after quarter , continuing to lead the industry with the margin expansion and being able to beat our , you know , the guides that we lay out that's already inclusive of industry leading expansion .

Speaker #3: Look , you said Billy was in the seat for just a month . I mean , Billy's been here with us for years and has been an active sort of member of the operational and senior executive leadership team all that time .

Speaker #3: So it's not as if we've put together that sort of plan . You know , with imperfect information per se , that has been sort of well crafted .

Speaker #3: You know , Billy was an author of that over the sort of years leading up to that Investor Day presentation . So I'd say , you know , our strategies and or focuses have not changed .

Speaker #3: You know , and Patrick's remarks , you heard him say that , you know , we are clear and our focus is singular .

Speaker #3: And I would echo that those are what we believe to be the highest and best use of our time and efforts in terms of reward .

Speaker #3: That's going to come out . So is the area of focus in terms of the cadence by which we are realizing that , look , every quarter with which we exceed our otherwise provided EBITDA guidance , we are doing better than a pro ramp .

Speaker #3: Right ? So if you say in that presentation , we said we're going to go from X to Y , from 25 to 28 .

Speaker #3: Well , if this year we've now just added 20 basis points to our margin expansion that we set at the beginning of the year , well , that puts us that much further ahead of the curve .

Speaker #3: So we're feeling really good . I don't think the levers are going to materially change over this window of , you know , the medium term .

Speaker #3: Those are going to be the things you're going to hear us talking about . It will get boring , but hopefully this will of results are anything but that .

Speaker #3: So I'd say we're feeling very good about our progress towards those goals . And as Patrick alluded to , the setup we have in going into 26 makes us feel that we'll get even further ahead of that .

Speaker #3: Otherwise, pro rata cadence.

Speaker #1: Thank you . We have our next question from Will , from Barclays . Please go ahead .

Speaker #9: Good morning. Thanks for the time. Just one question for me here. I wanted to come back to leverage. Obviously, it ticked up a little bit.

Speaker #9: Quarter on quarter on a trailing 12 month EBITDA basis . Just , you know , given your comments around , you know , possibly ramping share buybacks here and , you know , a very strong M&A pipeline and outlook into 2026 , how should we think about maybe the trajectory of that leverage ratio over the next several quarters .

Speaker #9: And you know , I know you kind of reiterated the low to mid three times target . But should we think about this not being sort of a straight line down .

Speaker #9: Maybe there's more variability quarter to quarter . Just around actual capital deployment .

Speaker #2: Yeah I mean leverage again we spent time moving leverage from low fours to low to mid threes . And I think we've made a commitment that we will keep leverage .

Speaker #2: That will toggle between low threes and mid threes . So you'll see us you know reinvesting the free cash flow . To business based on those sort of leverage targets .

Speaker #2: So that's that's what we're focused on .

Speaker #3: Yeah . Well I mean there is a seasonal cadence obviously naturally with the free cash flow Q4 is a higher free cash quarter .

Speaker #3: And so you'll see the generation and , you know , the reduction in debt coming out of that . But , you know , then buybacks and M&A can sort of augment that .

Speaker #3: Otherwise organic cadence . But , you know , in a given year , you know , it's not going to be perfectly straight line because the pace of M&A and or buybacks and or just general underlying free cash flow won't be a perfect straight line .

Speaker #3: But I think what you hear is this sort of absolute commitment to live in and around these ranges , and obviously if there's a higher level sort of M&A at one point , then , you know , you afforded the opportunity to sort of temporarily pause as you then bring leverage back in and so on and so forth .

Speaker #3: So it's not going to be perfectly straight , but it will be absolutely committed over sort of four quarter periods to live within these sort of ranges that we're talking about .

Speaker #9: I appreciate it . Thank you very much .

Speaker #2: Thank you . Well , thank you everyone for participating today . And . Sorry . Operator . Is that the end of the last question ?

Speaker #1: Yes . Thank you .

Speaker #2: Okay . Thank you everyone . And we look forward to speaking with you in February when we report our full year results and giving our full outlook for 2026 .