Q1 2026 Eni SpA Earnings Call
Speaker #1: To focus on the delivery of financial performance and key strategic milestones. As we set out at our Capital Market Update just over a month ago, we are working to deliver reliable, affordable, and lower-carbon energy for all our customers.
Speaker #1: Our industrial strategy anchored to technology skills and long-term investment into top-tier asset across a diversified portfolio has—if anything—been further validated in the context of the event of this year.
Speaker #1: Our investment framework, underpinned by strong cash flow and a robust balance sheet, supports us in delivering sector-leading growth. As a result, we can also reward our investors through a combination of attractive distribution and a continued rise of the capital value of the business, something that has been reflected by the share price improvement.
Speaker #1: It's also worth keeping in mind that while energy markets have been highly volatile since March, Q1 average—although higher than the planning assumption set out at our Capital Market Update—were well within an historical normal range for our volatile industry.
Speaker #1: Actually, in Euro term, it was a bit softer than last year. 2026 has seen very positive advancements in strategic terms, and Q1 supported this progress with strong financials.
Speaker #1: I will analyze the financial in more detail shortly, but we reported €3.5 billion of proforma EBIT, cash flow from operation of €2.9 billion, and proforma gearing at 15%, well within our expected 10-15 range, our proforma gearing—assuming the full effect of planning to deconsolidation—is even lower, at 12%.
Speaker #1: Major strategic events of the year to date include probably the ever-best start to a year for exploration, with an exceptional level of new resources discovered in seven different counties.
Speaker #1: The FID of Gang North and Ham in Indonesia, the dual exploration strategies valorization of a stake in our Belayn, discovery, strong production growth helped by startup of production at NGC in Angola, and first LNG export from the second Congo LNG.
Speaker #1: And in the transition sector, the agreement to reorganize and deconsolidate Planitude, and advancing two new bio-refineries at San Lazzaro and Priolo. But before we get into the details of the financial, I will spend a bit more time on what was the most remarkable start of the year for exploration.
Speaker #1: As you know, we have established a track record as the leading exploration company in the sector. Discovering an average €900 million per year over the past 10 years.
Speaker #1: And while our impact activity is somewhat front-loaded, in the first four months of 2026, we had already added around €1 billion of new resources.
Speaker #1: Critically, these new resources also help all have a credible and visible pathway to development and production, consistent with our focus on efficient time-to-market, where we are also an industry leader.
Speaker #1: Our production growth to 2030 is visible, and sector-leading. And we are building material optionality for the '30s. In Angola, our Azul affiliate as operator announced the significant oil discovery of Algaeta, on Block 1506.
Francesco Gattei: In more detail shortly. We reported EUR 3.5 billion of pro forma EBIT, cash flow from operation of EUR 2.9 billion, and pro forma gearing at 15%, well within our expected 10% to 15% range. Our pro forma gearing, assuming the full effect of Plenitude deconsolidation, is even lower at 12%. Major strategic events of the year to date include probably the very best start to a year for exploration, with an exceptional level of new resources discovered in seven different countries. The FID of Gehem North and Gehem in Indonesia, the dual exploration strategy, valorization of a stake in our Baleine discovery, strong production growth helped by startup of production at Agogo in Angola, and first LNG export from the second Congo LNG. In the transition sector, the agreement to reorganize and deconsolidate Plenitude. Advancing two new biorefineries at Sannazzaro and Priolo.
Francesco Gattei: In more detail shortly. We reported EUR 3.5 billion of pro forma EBIT, cash flow from operation of EUR 2.9 billion, and pro forma gearing at 15%, well within our expected 10% to 15% range. Our pro forma gearing, assuming the full effect of Plenitude deconsolidation, is even lower at 12%. Major strategic events of the year to date include probably the very best start to a year for exploration, with an exceptional level of new resources discovered in seven different countries. The FID of Gehem North and Gehem in Indonesia, the dual exploration strategy, valorization of a stake in our Baleine discovery, strong production growth helped by startup of production at Agogo in Angola, and first LNG export from the second Congo LNG. In the transition sector, the agreement to reorganize and deconsolidate Plenitude. Advancing two new biorefineries at Sannazzaro and Priolo.
Speaker #1: Preliminary estimates put oil in place at around €500 million. And the presence of an FPSO, Merrill 18 km away, promises a speedy and efficient development.
Cash flow from operations of €2.9 billion and we perform with gearing at 15%.
Speaker #1: In Côte d'Ivoire, the Murène South One Well significantly extended the proven area of Callao Gas Condensate Discovery, confirming a world-class discovery of up to 5 TCF and 450 million barrels in place.
While within our expected, 1,050 range, our ProForm gearing—assuming the full effect of planet to the consolidation—is even lower at 12%.
Speaker #1: In Libya, in March, we announced two offshore gas discovery estimated to total more than 1 TCF in place, enclosed by the existing Barasalan facilities enabling rapid tie-back.
Major strategic events of the year to date include probably the best ever start to a year for exploration, with an exceptional level of new resources discovered in seven different countries.
The idea of gang growth and HAM in Indonesia. The dual expiration strategy of organization of a stake in our B Lane.
Speaker #1: In early April, we announced that the NIS discovery in the TEMSA concession offshore exit. Our preliminary estimate for the NIS is 2 TCF of gas and 130 million barrel of condensate in place, and situated less than 10 kilometers from existing production infrastructure.
Discovery strong production, growth helped by startup of production at the NGC Angola and first LNG shipped from the second Congo energy.
And in the transition sector, the agreement to reorganize and the consolidated planning to—
Speaker #1: Last but certainly not least, this week we announced the giant Geliga Gas Condensate Discovery, in the Q3 basin offshore Indonesia. Our preliminary resource estimate is in place gas of 5 TCF and 300 million barrel of condensate.
And advancing two new bio-refinances as soon as there are, and Creo.
Francesco Gattei: Before we get into the details of the financials, I will spend a bit more time on what was the most remarkable start of the year for exploration. As you know, we have established a track record as the leading exploration company in the sector, discovering an average of 900 million barrels per year over the past 10 years. While our upstream activity is somewhat front-loaded, in the first four months of 2026, we had already added around 1 billion of new resources. Critically, these new resources also all have a credible and visible pathway to development and production, consistent with our focus on efficient time to market, where we are also an industry leader. Our production growth to 2030 is visible and sector leading, and we are building material optionality for the 2030s.
Francesco Gattei: Before we get into the details of the financials, I will spend a bit more time on what was the most remarkable start of the year for exploration. As you know, we have established a track record as the leading exploration company in the sector, discovering an average of 900 million barrels per year over the past 10 years. While our upstream activity is somewhat front-loaded, in the first four months of 2026, we had already added around 1 billion of new resources. Critically, these new resources also all have a credible and visible pathway to development and production, consistent with our focus on efficient time to market, where we are also an industry leader. Our production growth to 2030 is visible and sector leading, and we are building material optionality for the 2030s.
Speaker #1: Effectively a second gang. Because Geliga is close to the undeveloped 2 TCF Gula discovery, that includes also an additional 70 million barrel of condensate, and thus development synergy plus the same infrastructure and time-to-market advantage of gang, there is a clear case for a fast-track development of a third major production hub, and the significant production and value uplift this implies.
But before we get into the details of the financials, I will spend a bit more time on—what was the most?
Remarkable start of the year for exploration. As you know, we have established a track record as the leading exploration company in the sector, discovering an average of 900 million barrels per year over the past 10 years.
Speaker #1: Q1 results were consistent with the scenario condition we face, and the positive momentum we are generating in growing the company. But not all the upside of the scenario was captured in this quarter, as our downstream and bio-refineries were under the traditional maintenance that we executed before the start of the driving season.
And while our impact activities, some water front loaded in the first 4 months of 2026 were the already added around 1 billion of new resources, critically, this new resources. Also all have a credible and visible Pathway to development and production consistent with our focus on efficient time to Market, where we are also an industry leader.
Speaker #1: EMP delivered 9% year-on-year production growth, and consistent capture of benchar prices. Year over year, growth contribution from Norway and Congo were especially notable. And the outcome is after disruption to Middle East volumes in March.
Our production growth to 2030 is visible and sector-leading, and we are building material optionality for the '30s.
Francesco Gattei: In Angola, our Azule affiliate, as operator, announced the significant oil discovery of Algaita on Block 15/06. Preliminary estimates put oil in place at around 500 million barrels, and the presence of an FPSO, merely 18km away, promises a speedy and efficient development. In Côte d'Ivoire, the Murene South-1 well significantly extended the proven area of Calao gas condensate discovery, confirming a world-class discovery of up to 5 TCF and 450 million barrels in place. In Libya, in March, we announced two offshore gas discoveries, estimated to total more than 1 TCF in place and close by the existing Bahr Essalam facilities, enabling rapid tieback. In early April, we announced the Deniz discovery in the Temsah concession offshore Egypt. Our preliminary estimate for Deniz is 2 TCF of gas and 130 million barrels of condensate in place, and situated less than 10km from existing production infrastructure.
Francesco Gattei: In Angola, our Azule affiliate, as operator, announced the significant oil discovery of Algaita on Block 15/06. Preliminary estimates put oil in place at around 500 million barrels, and the presence of an FPSO, merely 18km away, promises a speedy and efficient development. In Côte d'Ivoire, the Murene South-1 well significantly extended the proven area of Calao gas condensate discovery, confirming a world-class discovery of up to 5 TCF and 450 million barrels in place. In Libya, in March, we announced two offshore gas discoveries, estimated to total more than 1 TCF in place and close by the existing Bahr Essalam facilities, enabling rapid tieback. In early April, we announced the Deniz discovery in the Temsah concession offshore Egypt. Our preliminary estimate for Deniz is 2 TCF of gas and 130 million barrels of condensate in place, and situated less than 10km from existing production infrastructure.
Speaker #1: GGP proforma EBIT of 0.3 billion is reflecting the more volatile scenario, and it is consistent with our updated guidance of 1.3 billion euro in proforma EBIT.
In Angola, our Azula affiliate as operator announced the significant oil discovery of Algaida on Block 1506.
Speaker #1: In our transition businesses, proforma EBITDA of 0.52 billion is consistent with our full-year guidance of 2.4 billion euro. Planitude, that will continue to grow both on clients and new capacity, will increase its gross EBITDA by 20% to 1.3 billion euro, while ENI Live will continue to see supportive bio-refining margin and will reach an EBITDA of 1.1 billion euro.
Preliminary estimates put oil in place at around 500 million barrels, and the presence of an FPSO merely 18 kilometers away promises a speedy and efficient development. In Cut The War, the Muran South 1A discovery confirms a world-class find of up to 5 TCF and 450 million barrels in place.
Speaker #1: 16% over last year. Our refinery utilization was low. Reflecting a major turnaround program we should position us well for the remainder of the year.
In Libya, in March, we announced two short gas discoveries estimated to total more than 1 TCF in place, enclosed by the system facilities enabling rapid tie-back.
in early April, we announced
Speaker #1: Meanwhile, our results in Versailles highlight some evident progress in the reported results of curtailing its losses in line with our plan. Contribution from associates reflected the macro scenario condition, with VAR reporting a strong production growth.
the Denise Discovery in the tamsa concession of short edit,
Our preliminary estimate for the news.
Speaker #1: A higher scenario along the year will enhance the results of our satellites, and could improve their distribution and our cash flow too. The tax rate of 42% was in line with our full-year guidance.
Francesco Gattei: Last but certainly not least, this week we announced the giant Geliga gas condensate discovery in the Kutei Basin offshore Indonesia. Our preliminary resource estimate is in-place gas of 5 TCF and 300 million barrels condensate, effectively a second Gehem. Because Geliga is closer to the undeveloped 2 TCF Gula discovery, that includes also an additional 70 million barrels of condensate, and thus plus the same infrastructure and time to market advantage of Gehem, there is a clear case for a fast-track development of a third major production hub, and the significant production and value uplift this implies. Q1 results were consistent with the scenario condition we face and the positive momentum we are generating in growing the company.
Francesco Gattei: Last but certainly not least, this week we announced the giant Geliga gas condensate discovery in the Kutei Basin offshore Indonesia. Our preliminary resource estimate is in-place gas of 5 TCF and 300 million barrels condensate, effectively a second Gehem. Because Geliga is closer to the undeveloped 2 TCF Gula discovery, that includes also an additional 70 million barrels of condensate, and thus plus the same infrastructure and time to market advantage of Gehem, there is a clear case for a fast-track development of a third major production hub, and the significant production and value uplift this implies. Q1 results were consistent with the scenario condition we face and the positive momentum we are generating in growing the company.
There is 2 TCF of gas and 130 million barrels of condensate in place, and situated less than 10 kilometers from existing production infrastructure.
Last. But certain
Speaker #1: Cash flow from operation generated was in line with our expectation, with good contribution from associate dividend and a cash tax rate of around 25%.
Not least, this week we announced the giant Geng North gas condensate discovery in the CE-1B offshore Indonesia.
Speaker #1: Working capital at a large negative impact on cash flow consistent with the sharp rise in prices in March. But it's not out of the ordinary in that context.
Our preliminary resource estimate is in place: gas of 5 TCF and 30 million barrels of condensate.
Speaker #1: We do expect to reverse this in the coming quarters. CAPEX was 1.9 billion euro, in line with the full-year amount of 7 billion for the year.
Effectively a second gang because Giga is close to the undeveloped 2 CF Goula discovery that also includes an additional 70 million, battery locations, and as the—
Speaker #1: Net CAPEX was broadly equal to gross, with limited portfolio activity in this quarter, beyond announcing but not completing the sale of a 10% stake in Baleen in Ivory Coast to SOCAR.
Speaker #1: After the quarter ended, we completed on the previously announced acquisition by Planitude of ACEA Energy, for around 500 million euro. We paid the third quarterly dividend referring to 2025 in March, and the repurchase 280 million euro in share.
Plus, with the same infrastructure and trying to market the bunch of gang, there is a clear case for a fast-tracked development of a third major production hub and the significant production and value uplift. This implies—
Our results were consistent with the scenario and conditions we face.
Francesco Gattei: Not all the upside of the scenario was captured in this quarter, as our downstream and biorefineries were under the traditional maintenance that we execute before the start of the driving season. E&P delivered 9% year-on-year production growth and consistent capture of Brent prices. Year-over-year growth contribution from Norway and Congo were especially notable, and the outcome is after disruption to Middle East volumes in March. GGP pro forma EBIT of EUR 0.3 billion is reflecting the more volatile scenario, and it is consistent with our updated guidance of EUR 1.3 billion in pro forma EBIT. In our transition businesses, pro forma EBITDA of EUR 0.52 billion is consistent with our full year guidance of EUR 2.4 billion.
Francesco Gattei: Not all the upside of the scenario was captured in this quarter, as our downstream and biorefineries were under the traditional maintenance that we execute before the start of the driving season. E&P delivered 9% year-on-year production growth and consistent capture of Brent prices. Year-over-year growth contribution from Norway and Congo were especially notable, and the outcome is after disruption to Middle East volumes in March. GGP pro forma EBIT of EUR 0.3 billion is reflecting the more volatile scenario, and it is consistent with our updated guidance of EUR 1.3 billion in pro forma EBIT. In our transition businesses, pro forma EBITDA of EUR 0.52 billion is consistent with our full year guidance of EUR 2.4 billion.
Speaker #1: Shares initials have reduced by 17% since the end of 2021. Proforma gearing of 15% incorporates M&A transaction announced but not yet concluded, and represents a broadly balanced quarter for cashier and cash out.
As our Downstream and by refineries were under the traditional maintenance that we execute before the start of the driving season.
Speaker #1: We expect the consolidation of Planitude to close in the third quarter, with a benefit to consolidated net debt over the following quarter as Planitude funding is restricted.
EMP delivered 9% year-on-year production growth and consistent capture of venture prices year-over-year. Growth contribution from Norway and Congo were especially notable. And the outcome is after disruption to Middle East volumes in March.
Speaker #1: If we incorporate also this effect, our proforma gearing is actually at 12%. Updating our guidance for 2026, we confirmed the outlook for EMP production with a growth rate of 3 or 4 percent, incorporating our current assumption for the impact on Middle East disruption.
GGP, performer EBIT of €0.3 billion is reflecting the more volatile scenario, and it is consistent with our updated guidance on €1.3 billion in preform EBIT.
Speaker #1: We have also updated our market scenario projection for the year, in the context of the current situation, raising full-year brent to 83 dollars per barrel from 70, the TTF to 50 euro for megawatt-hour from 36, as we believe that higher price will be necessary for the refilling of empty storage.
Francesco Gattei: Plenitude, that will continue to grow both on clients and new capacity, will increase its gross EBITDA by 20% to EUR 1.3 billion, while Enilive will continue to see supportive biorefining margin and will reach an EBITDA of EUR 1.1 billion, 16% over last year. Our refinery utilization was low, reflecting a major turnaround program which should position us well for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, our results in Versalis highlight some evident progress in the reported results of curtailing its losses, in line with our plan. Contribution from associates reflected the macro scenario condition, with VAR reporting a strong production growth. A higher scenario along the year will enhance the results of our satellites and could improve their distribution and our cash flow too. The tax rate of 42% was in line with our full year guidance.
Francesco Gattei: Plenitude, that will continue to grow both on clients and new capacity, will increase its gross EBITDA by 20% to EUR 1.3 billion, while Enilive will continue to see supportive biorefining margin and will reach an EBITDA of EUR 1.1 billion, 16% over last year. Our refinery utilization was low, reflecting a major turnaround program which should position us well for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, our results in Versalis highlight some evident progress in the reported results of curtailing its losses, in line with our plan. Contribution from associates reflected the macro scenario condition, with VAR reporting a strong production growth. A higher scenario along the year will enhance the results of our satellites and could improve their distribution and our cash flow too. The tax rate of 42% was in line with our full year guidance.
In our transition businesses, performance was a bit down at €0.52 billion, which is consistent with our full-year guidance of €2.4 billion. We are planning that this will continue to grow, both on clients and new capacity, which will increase its gross every day by 20% to €1.3 billion, while Enilive will continue to see supportive biorefining margin and we reach an EBITDA of €1.1 billion.
Speaker #1: And the refining margin in Europe is our CERM to 8 dollars per barrel from 6. From a financial perspective, reflecting the changed scenario underlined outperformance, we now estimate cash flow from operation pre-working capital of 13.8 billion euro, up 20% from 11.5 billion set in March.
16% over last year.
Our refiner utilization was low, reflecting a major turnaround program. We should position as well for the remainder of the year. Meanwhile, our results in Versalis show some evident progress.
In the reported results, of course, sailing its losses in line with our plan, contribution from associate reflected, the macro scenario condition.
Speaker #1: Applying our proposed updated distribution policy, this implies a share buyback raised by around 90% to 2.8 billion euro. As previously communicated, this is the floor for 2026 that will be maintained even in the case of future scenario deterioration.
with that, reporting a strong production growth.
A higher scenario for the year will enhance the results of our satellites and could improve the distribution and our cash flow too.
Francesco Gattei: Cash flow from operations generated was in line with our expectation, with good contribution from associate dividend, and a cash tax rate of around 25%. Working capital had a large negative impact on cash flow, consistent with the sharp rise in prices in March, but is not out of the ordinary in that context. We do expect to reverse this in the coming quarters. CapEx was EUR 1.9 billion, in line with the full year amount of EUR 7 billion for the year. Net CapEx was broadly equal to gross, with limited portfolio activity in this quarter, beyond announcing but not completing the sale of a 10% stake in Baleine in Ivory Coast to SOCAR. After the quarter ended, we completed on the previously announced acquisition by Planeta Dofaceia Energy for around EUR 500 million. We paid the third quarterly dividend referring to 2025 in March, and repurchased EUR 280 million in shares.
Francesco Gattei: Cash flow from operations generated was in line with our expectation, with good contribution from associate dividend, and a cash tax rate of around 25%. Working capital had a large negative impact on cash flow, consistent with the sharp rise in prices in March, but is not out of the ordinary in that context. We do expect to reverse this in the coming quarters. CapEx was EUR 1.9 billion, in line with the full year amount of EUR 7 billion for the year.
Straight of 42% was in line with our full-year guidance.
Speaker #1: Actually, taking into account the current market prices are well above that level, we should expect even further increase in our distribution policy in the coming quarters.
Cash flow from operations generated was in line with our expectation, with good contribution from associate dividends and a cash tax rate of around 25%.
Speaker #1: Our new policy will be put to shareholder for approval at the AGM on 6th of May. And this concludes my remarks, and along with my colleagues from ENI Top Management on the call, I am ready to take your questions.
Working capital had a large negative impact on cash flow, consistent with the sharp rise in prices in March. But it is not out of the ordinary in that context; we do expect to reverse this in the coming quarters.
Francesco Gattei: Net CapEx was broadly equal to gross, with limited portfolio activity in this quarter, beyond announcing but not completing the sale of a 10% stake in Baleine in Ivory Coast to SOCAR. After the quarter ended, we completed on the previously announced acquisition by Planeta Dofaceia Energy for around EUR 500 million. We paid the third quarterly dividend referring to 2025 in March, and repurchased EUR 280 million in shares.
Speaker #2: This is the conference operator. Please press star one for questions, and star two to remove yourself from the question queue. I now leave the floor to Mr. John Rigby for the Q&A session.
CapEx was €1.9 billion, in line with the full-year amount of €7 billion for the year. Net CapEx was broadly equal to gross, with limited portfolio activity in this quarter beyond announcing, but not completing, the sale of a 10% stake in Plenitude. In every cost to soar.
Speaker #3: Thanks, operator. We'll start the Q&A with the normal request for one or two questions only, please, so that we can get through the entire list.
After the quarter ended, we completed on the previously announced acquisition by planning to do FG for around €500 million,
Speaker #3: And we're going to start with Biraj at RBC. Biraj, if you'd like to ask your question.
Francesco Gattei: Shares in issue have reduced by 17% since the end of 2021. Pro forma gearing of 15% incorporates M&A transaction announced but not yet concluded and represent a broadly balanced quarter for cash in and cash out. We expect the consolidation of Plenitude to close in Q3, with a benefit to consolidate net debt over the following quarter as Plenitude funding is restructured. If we incorporate also this effect, our pro forma gearing is actually at 12%. Updating our guidance for 2026, we confirm the outlook for E&P production with a growth rate of 3% or 4%, incorporating our current assumption for the impact of Middle East disruption.
Francesco Gattei: Shares in issue have reduced by 17% since the end of 2021. Pro forma gearing of 15% incorporates M&A transaction announced but not yet concluded and represent a broadly balanced quarter for cash in and cash out. We expect the consolidation of Plenitude to close in Q3, with a benefit to consolidate net debt over the following quarter as Plenitude funding is restructured. If we incorporate also this effect, our pro forma gearing is actually at 12%. Updating our guidance for 2026, we confirm the outlook for E&P production with a growth rate of 3% or 4%, incorporating our current assumption for the impact of Middle East disruption.
We paid the third quarterly dividend referring to 2025 in March, and repurchased €280 million in shares.
Speaker #4: And out. How should we think about that 55 million this quarter and what we should assume for the full year 26 and into 27?
Shares in issue have reduced by 17% since the end of 2021, performing a gearing of 15% in the corporate Seminary transaction announced but not yet concluded. This represents a broadly balanced quarter for cash in and cash out.
Speaker #4: And then second question is just on Indonesia and congratulations again on the exploration success. Now that we're closer to the deal closing in Q2, are you able to say what the cash adjustment is set to be net to ENI?
We expect the consolidation of 22 to close in the third quarter, with a benefit to consolidate a net debt over the following quarter, as plenty of funding is restricted. If we incorporate also, this affects our pro forma gearing, which is actually at 12%.
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Biraj, could you just re-go over your first question? Because we missed the start of it. Thanks.
Speaker #4: Oh, sorry. It's the transformation costs. The 55 million you've broken out, what should we expect for the full year?
Francesco Gattei: We have also updated our market scenario projection for the year in the context of the current situation, raising full year Brent to $83 per barrel from $70, the TTF to €50 per megawatt hour from €36, as we believe that higher price will be necessary for the refilling of empty storage, and the refining margin in Europe, our SERM, to $8 per barrel from $6. From a financial perspective, reflecting the change of scenario and the line of outperformance, we now estimate cash flow from operations pre-working capital of €13.8 billion, up 20% from €11.5 billion set in March. Applying our proposed updated distribution policy, this implies a share buyback raised by around 90% to €2.8 billion. As previously communicated, this is the floor for 2026 that will be maintained even in the case of future scenario deterioration.
Francesco Gattei: We have also updated our market scenario projection for the year in the context of the current situation, raising full year Brent to $83 per barrel from $70, the TTF to €50 per megawatt hour from €36, as we believe that higher price will be necessary for the refilling of empty storage, and the refining margin in Europe, our SERM, to $8 per barrel from $6. From a financial perspective, reflecting the change of scenario and the line of outperformance, we now estimate cash flow from operations pre-working capital of €13.8 billion, up 20% from €11.5 billion set in March. Applying our proposed updated distribution policy, this implies a share buyback raised by around 90% to €2.8 billion. As previously communicated, this is the floor for 2026 that will be maintained even in the case of future scenario deterioration.
Speaker #5: Okay. I will leave the question about the transformation costs to Adriano Alfani. On Indonesia, we do expect a cash settlement and also you know that we work in this kind of model with some distribution that are related to the capability of funding of these entities standalone.
Speaker #5: But we do not disclose this amount that will be in any case relevant.
Updating our guidance for 2026, we confirm the outlook for EMP production with a growth rate of 3 or 4%, incorporating our current assumption for the impact of Middle East disruption. We have also updated our market scenario projection for the year in the context of the current situation, raising fully your brand to $83 per barrel from $70, the TTF to €50 per megawatt hour from €36. As we believe that higher prices will be necessary for the refilling of empty storage and the refining margin in Europe, our
Speaker #4: Sure. Thanks for the question. I mean, on the 55 million, while we started a new project, we continue to drive efficiency on all the sites that are in transformation.
To $8 per barrel from $6.
Speaker #4: So you should read on analyze-based roughly 50 million of efficiency that we are going to bring. So you should not multiply 55 or 4, but you should discount by 50 million at least of efficiency that we are going to bring.
For my financial perspective, reflecting the changed scenario and the line down per outperformance, we now estimate cash flow from operations pre-working capital of €13.8 billion, up 20% from €11.5 billion set in March.
Speaker #4: But you need to consider that today these sites are in transformation. For the future, adding value through the new project, because we are going to start a new activities.
Applying our proposed updated distribution policy, this implies a share buyback raised by around 90% to €2.8 billion.
Speaker #4: So this is something that in the future will generate value. And by the way, it's incorporating our CFO4 guidance. Yeah.
Francesco Gattei: Actually, taking into account the current market prices are well above that level, we should expect even further increases in our distribution policy in the coming quarters. Our new policy will be put to shareholders for approval at the AGM on 6 May. This concludes my remarks, and along with my colleagues from the top management on the call, I am ready to take your questions.
Francesco Gattei: Actually, taking into account the current market prices are well above that level, we should expect even further increases in our distribution policy in the coming quarters. Our new policy will be put to shareholders for approval at the AGM on 6 May. This concludes my remarks, and along with my colleagues from the top management on the call, I am ready to take your questions.
As previously communicated, this is the floor for 2026 that will be maintained even in the case of future scenario deterioration, actually taking into account the current—
Speaker #3: Thanks, Biraj. We are now going to go sorry, one second. Yeah. We'll now move sorry, apologies. We'll now move to Alejandro Vigil at Santander.
Even further increase in our distribution.
Policy in the coming quarters.
Our new policy will be put to shareholders for approval at the
AGM on 6th of May.
Speaker #3: Alejandro, could you ask your questions?
And this concludes my remarks, and, along with my colleagues from...
Speaker #6: Sure. The first one is about the situation in the Middle East in your portfolio. How are you managing the situation and potential impact in terms of your supply contracts, your oil and gas production, in general?
Many top management are on the call. I am ready to take your questions.
Operator: This is the conference operator. Please press star one for questions and star two to remove yourself from the question. Thank you. I now leave the floor to Mr. John Rigby for the Q&A session.
Operator: This is the conference operator. Please press star one for questions and star two to remove yourself from the question. Thank you. I now leave the floor to Mr. John Rigby for the Q&A session.
This is the conference operator. Please.
Speaker #6: How are you managing these contexts? And the second one is about Indonesia. I remember that you were talking about the plateau of the new joint venture of about half a million dollars per day.
Press star 1 for questions and star 2 to remove yourself from the question queue.
Thank you.
Speaker #6: With the new discoveries, this is now a very conservative assumption, or you reiterate this half a million as a guidance for the production. Thank you.
I now leave the floor to Mr. John Rigby for the Q&A session.
John Rigby: Thanks, operator. We'll start the Q&A with the normal request for one or two questions only, please, so that we can get through the entire list. We're going to start with Biraj at RBC. Biraj, if you'd like to ask your question.
John Rigby: Thanks, operator. We'll start the Q&A with the normal request for one or two questions only, please, so that we can get through the entire list. We're going to start with Biraj at RBC. Biraj, if you'd like to ask your question.
Speaker #3: I leave to Guido Brusco to answer the both questions.
Thanks, operator. Uh, we'll start the, uh, Q&A, um, with the normal.
Speaker #7: First, on Middle East, the impact overall is marginal, both on oil production and, of course, on free cash flow. We have a limited exposure in terms of production: 3% of our total production comes from Middle East.
Um, requests for, uh, 1 or 2 questions, only please. So that we can get through the, the entire list. And we're going to start with, uh, Barrage at RBC barrage. If you'd like to ask your question,
[Analyst] (RBC): How should we think about that EUR 55 million this quarter and what we should assume for the full year 2026 and into 2027? Second question is just on Indonesia, and congratulations again on the exploration success. Now that we're closer to the deal closing in Q2, are you able to say what the cash adjustment is set to be net to Eni? Thank you.
Biraj Borkhataria: How should we think about that EUR 55 million this quarter and what we should assume for the full year 2026 and into 2027? Second question is just on Indonesia, and congratulations again on the exploration success. Now that we're closer to the deal closing in Q2, are you able to say what the cash adjustment is set to be net to Eni? Thank you.
Speaker #7: As far as concerns the products and LNG, also is limited, if not zero impact on LNG. Thanks to the flexibility of our portfolio, the diversified geographical footprint, we could basically cope with the missing volumes coming from Qatar.
And out. How should we think about that $55 million this quarter? And, you know, what should we assume for the full year, '26 and into '27? And then, second question is just on Indonesia, and congratulations again on the exploration success.
Speaker #7: Essentially, while for the products, we on all the commodities, gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel, we are prepared to honor all our commitment with our customers.
John Rigby: Biraj, could you just re-go over your first question because we missed the start of it? Thanks.
John Rigby: Biraj, could you just re-go over your first question because we missed the start of it? Thanks.
Now that we're closer to the deal closing in Q2, are you able to say what the cash adjustment is set to be, Nettie? And I thank you.
[Analyst] (RBC): Oh, sorry. It's the transformation costs. The EUR 55 million you've broken out, what should we expect for the full year?
Biraj Borkhataria: Oh, sorry. It's the transformation costs. The EUR 55 million you've broken out, what should we expect for the full year?
Mirage, could you just, um, just go over your first question again because we missed the start of it? Thanks.
Oh, sorry. It's the transformation costs—the $555 million you've broken out. What should we expect for the full year?
Francesco Gattei: Okay. I will leave the question about the transformation cost to Adriano Alfani. On Indonesia, we do expect a cash settlement. You know that we work in this kind of model with some distribution that are related to the capability of funding of this entity standalone, but we do not disclose this amount that will be in any case irrelevant.
Francesco Gattei: Okay. I will leave the question about the transformation cost to Adriano Alfani. On Indonesia, we do expect a cash settlement. You know that we work in this kind of model with some distribution that are related to the capability of funding of this entity standalone, but we do not disclose this amount that will be in any case irrelevant.
Speaker #7: So on Indonesia, yeah, indeed, I would say the that assumption was reflecting the status of the base of resources at that time. Of course, having discovered Galiga, which is equivalent in terms of volume in place to GANG, and having also another stranded asset there, Gula, which is give and take 2 TCF, we can basically replicate another hub in the region.
Adriano Alfani: Sure. Thanks for the question. On the EUR 55 million, while we started a new project, we continue to drive efficiency on all the sites that are in transformation. You should read on an annualized basis, roughly EUR 50 million of efficiency that we are going to bring. You should not multiply 55 by 4, but you should discount by EUR 50 million at least of efficiency that we are going to bring. You need to consider that today these sites are in transformation for the future, adding value through the new project because we are going to start the new activities. This is something that in the future will generate the value. By the way, it is incorporated in our CFO guidance. Yeah.
Adriano Alfani: Sure. Thanks for the question. On the EUR 55 million, while we started a new project, we continue to drive efficiency on all the sites that are in transformation. You should read on an annualized basis, roughly EUR 50 million of efficiency that we are going to bring. You should not multiply 55 by 4, but you should discount by EUR 50 million at least of efficiency that we are going to bring. You need to consider that today these sites are in transformation for the future, adding value through the new project because we are going to start the new activities. This is something that in the future will generate the value. By the way, it is incorporated in our CFO guidance. Yeah.
Okay, I will leave the question about the transformation cost to Adrian Alfani on Indonesia. We do expect a cash settlement. And also, you know that we work in this, uh, in this kind of model, with some distributions that are related to the capability of funding of this entity standalone. But we do not disclose this, uh, this, uh, this amount that will in any case be relevant.
Speaker #7: So clearly, this will raise the production target in the medium to long term to more than 500, I would say 700, 750 might be a reasonable figure.
Sure, thanks. Thanks for the question. I mean, on the €55 million, while we started a new project, we continue to drive efficiency on all the sites that are in transformation. So you should read on Analyze page, roughly €50 million of efficiency that we are going to bring. So you should not multiply 55 by 4, but you should discount by €50 million at least of efficiency that we are going to bring. But you need to consider that today, these sites are in transformation for the future—adding value to the new project because we are going to start new activities. So this is something that in the future will generate the value and, by the way, is incorporated in our CFO guidance. Yeah.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Guido. We're going to move now to we're going to move to Josh at UBS. Josh, if you'd like to ask your question.
John Rigby: Thanks, Biraj. We'll now move to Alejandro Vigil at Santander. Alejandro, could you ask your questions?
John Rigby: Thanks, Biraj. We'll now move to Alejandro Vigil at Santander. Alejandro, could you ask your questions?
Thanks, Barrage. Um, we are now going to go—sorry, one second.
Speaker #8: Yeah. Thanks, John. And good afternoon. Hopefully, you can hear me. Two questions. One just on the buyback and your decision to lift it. Obviously, I understand there's some sort of mechanical nature here, given the new cash flow guidance.
Speaker #8: But more a question of the timing of why you felt now was the time to do it so soon after the capital markets day and your confidence there.
We'll now move. Sorry, apologies. We'll now move to Alejandro Vil—uh, at Santam and Sant—and the, uh, Alejandro, could you ask your questions?
Alejandro Vigil: Sure. The first one is about the situation in the Middle East, in your portfolio. How are you managing the situation and potential impact in terms of your supply contracts, your oil and gas production? In general, how you are managing this context. The second one is about Indonesia. I remember that you were talking about the plateau of the new joint venture of about half million barrels per day. With the new discoveries, this is now a very conservative assumption, or you reiterate this half million as a guidance for the production. Thank you.
Alejandro Vigil: Sure. The first one is about the situation in the Middle East, in your portfolio. How are you managing the situation and potential impact in terms of your supply contracts, your oil and gas production? In general, how you are managing this context. The second one is about Indonesia. I remember that you were talking about the plateau of the new joint venture of about half million barrels per day. With the new discoveries, this is now a very conservative assumption, or you reiterate this half million as a guidance for the production. Thank you.
Speaker #8: And then second question, looking at your macro deck, one thing that does stand out is the gas assumption at 50 euros per megawatt hour, which is above the curve.
Speaker #8: You're involved in the market. You have a storage business. Can you explain maybe why prices haven't moved higher so far? What do you think are the main reasons?
Speaker #8: And why are you set your assumption above the forward curve? Thanks.
Speaker #7: Yeah. Thank you for the question that are partially connected, clearly. We decided to move the buyback because we believe actually that it's already evident there is a completely different trend, even versus the capital market day.
So the first one is about the situation in the Middle East. In your portfolio, how are you managing the situation and the potential impact in terms of your supply contracts, your oil, and fractionals in general? How are you managing this context? And the second one is about Indonesia, and I remember that you were talking about the plateau of the new Jangkrik venture.
Guido Brusco: I leave it to Guido Brusco to answer both questions. First on Middle East, the impact overall is marginal, both on oil production and of course on free cash flow. We have limited exposure in terms of production. 3% of our total production comes from Middle East. As far as the products and LNG are concerned, the impact also is limited, if not zero. On LNG, thanks to the flexibility of our portfolio, the diversified geographical footprint, we could basically cope with the missing volumes coming from Qatar, essentially. While for the products, on all the commodities, gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel, we are prepared to honor all our commitments with our customers. On Indonesia, yeah, indeed, I would say that assumption was reflecting the status of the resource base at that time.
Francesco Gattei: I leave it to Guido Brusco to answer both questions.
Guido Brusco: First on Middle East, the impact overall is marginal, both on oil production and of course on free cash flow. We have limited exposure in terms of production. 3% of our total production comes from Middle East. As far as the products and LNG are concerned, the impact also is limited, if not zero. On LNG, thanks to the flexibility of our portfolio, the diversified geographical footprint, we could basically cope with the missing volumes coming from Qatar, essentially. While for the products, on all the commodities, gasoline, diesel, and even jet fuel, we are prepared to honor all our commitments with our customers. On Indonesia, yeah, indeed, I would say that assumption was reflecting the status of the resource base at that time.
About half a million dollars per day with the new discoveries. This is now a very conservative assumption, or you rate already, this half million as a as a guidance. For the, for the production. Thank you. I leave to with the Brusco to answer the both questions.
Speaker #7: The market day occurred at the middle of March. The event at the time were just started. Once we were presenting our first scenario that was based on clearly a crisis, but it could be solved in a shorter time.
Um, first on Middle East, uh, the the impact overall is, is marginal both on oil production and of course on on on free cash flow. Uh, we have a been uh, limited exposure in term of production. Uh,
Speaker #7: There were not yet bombing on the facilities that occurred at that specific time and were expanded in the following weeks. And we see there is a continuous or practically two months already inside the crisis.
Speaker #7: This crisis is not just a matter of reaching a sort of ceasefire or a peace, but it's also to restart a lot of infrastructure and production facilities, processing facilities that were shut down or were impacted by fire and bombing.
Uh, thanks to the flexibility of our portfolio, the diversified, the geographical footprint, we could, uh, basically cope with the
Speaker #7: So it will take longer. So for this reason, we believe that there is quite an expected compliance by the market on the duration of this crisis that appears I would say much more impactful than the market is probably evaluating.
With the missing volumes coming from, uh, from Qatar, uh, essentially, while for the, for the products. Uh, uh, we uh, on on all the Commodities, uh, uh, gasoline, uh, Diesel and, uh, and even jet fuel. Uh, we are, uh, prepared to honor all our commitment with our with our customers. Uh, so,
Speaker #7: On the gas specifically, we believe that in a 40, 45 euro megawatt hour environment with a extended shortage of gas, particularly from Qatar, because even if Qatar will be able to restart or there will be some kind of agreement in the coming weeks, it will take times to restart all these plants or these facilities to restart the flow to consider there is also bottlenecks in terms of tankers or ships and clearly LNG carrier.
Guido Brusco: Of course, having discovered Geliga, which is equivalent in terms of volume in place to Gang, and having also another stranded asset there, Gula, which is give or take 2 TCF, we can basically replicate another hub in the region. Clearly this will raise the production target in the medium to long term to more than 500, I would say 700, 750 might be a reasonable figure.
Guido Brusco: Of course, having discovered Geliga, which is equivalent in terms of volume in place to Gang, and having also another stranded asset there, Gula, which is give or take 2 TCF, we can basically replicate another hub in the region. Clearly this will raise the production target in the medium to long term to more than 500, I would say 700, 750 might be a reasonable figure.
Speaker #7: So overall process of refilling European storage that completed the winter at the minimum almost at the minimum 25%. Now we are at 30%. And to reach at least 80, 90% before the start of the next winter, we require some price signals that should be increased.
On Indonesia, yeah, indeed, I would say the, uh, that assumption was, uh, was, um, reflecting the status of the, um, the base of resources at that time. Of course, having discovered the, um, Giga, which is equivalent in terms of volume in place to, to Gang, and having also another, uh, stranded asset there, uh, Goula, which is, um, give and take 2 TCF. We can basically replicate another up in the region. So, uh, clearly this will, uh, will raise the, uh, the production target in the, um, medium, uh, medium, uh, to long term to more than 500. I would say 700, 750 might be a reasonable, uh, reasonable figure.
John Rigby: Thank you, Guido. We're going to move now to Josh at UBS. Josh, if you'd like to ask your question.
John Rigby: Thank you, Guido. We're going to move now to Josh at UBS. Josh, if you'd like to ask your question.
Um, we're going to move now to, uh,
Speaker #7: Price signal not only in the amount of the first front month value, but also on the structure of the curve that is not supportive.
[Analyst] (UBS): Yeah. Thanks, John, and good afternoon. Hopefully you can hear me. Two questions. One just on the buyback and your decision to list it. Obviously, I understand there's some sort of mechanical nature here given the new cash flow guidance, but more a question of the timing of why you felt now was the time to do it, so soon after the Capital Markets Day and your confidence there. Second question, looking at your macro deck, one thing that does stand out is the gas assumption at EUR 50/MWh, which is above the curve. You're involved in the market, you have a storage business. Can you explain maybe why prices haven't moved higher so far? What do you think are the main reasons there, and why you set your assumption above the forward curve? Thanks.
Josh Stone: Yeah. Thanks, John, and good afternoon. Hopefully you can hear me. Two questions. One just on the buyback and your decision to list it. Obviously, I understand there's some sort of mechanical nature here given the new cash flow guidance, but more a question of the timing of why you felt now was the time to do it, so soon after the Capital Markets Day and your confidence there. Second question, looking at your macro deck, one thing that does stand out is the gas assumption at EUR 50/MWh, which is above the curve. You're involved in the market, you have a storage business. Can you explain maybe why prices haven't moved higher so far? What do you think are the main reasons there, and why you set your assumption above the forward curve? Thanks.
We're going to move to Josh at UBS. Josh, if you'd like to ask your question.
Speaker #7: So we believe that both on oil and on the gas our price deck that we have uplifted is still conservative.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Francesco.
Yeah. Thanks uh John and good afternoon. Hopefully you can hear me 2 2 questions 1 just on on the buyback and and your decision to lift it and obviously understand as a sort of mechanical nature here, given the new cash flow guidance. But more question of the timing of why you felt now was the time to do it. Uh, so soon enough to the capital markets day and and your confidence there,
Speaker #9: Excuse me. Sorry. Are we going to now move to Alessandro Pozzi at Mediabank? Alessandro, are you there?
Speaker #10: Yeah. Can you hear me? Yeah. Thanks for taking the questions. The first one is on the number of discoveries that you've made so far this year.
Guido Brusco: Thank you for the question. They are partially connected, clearly. We decided to move the buyback because we believe actually that it's already evident there is a completely different trend, even versus the Capital Markets Day. The Capital Markets Day occurred at the middle of March. The event at the time just started. Once we were presenting our first scenario that was based on clearly a crisis, but that could be solved in a shorter time. There were not yet bombing on the facilities that occurred at that specific time and were expanded in the following weeks. We see there is a continuous thing or practically two months already inside the crisis. This crisis is not just a matter of reaching a sort of ceasefire or a peace, but is also to restart a lot of infrastructure and production facilities, processing facilities that were
Francesco Gattei: Thank you for the question. They are partially connected, clearly. We decided to move the buyback because we believe actually that it's already evident there is a completely different trend, even versus the Capital Markets Day. The Capital Markets Day occurred at the middle of March. The event at the time just started.
Um and then the second question you're looking at your macro deck. 1 thing that does stand out is the gas assumption at 50 Euro has been like what our which is above the curve, you're involved in the market. Um, you have a storage business. Can you explain maybe why prices haven't moved higher so far? What do you think of the main reasons and why you sit your assumption above the forward curve? Thanks.
Speaker #10: I was wondering there is in your capital allocation framework, there is a little room for increase in CAPEX. And we all appreciate the need to be disciplined when it comes to CAPEX budgeting.
Yeah, thank you for, uh, for the question that is partially connected. Clearly, we, we decided to move, uh, the, uh, the buyback because we do actually that,
It is already evident. There is a completely different trend.
Francesco Gattei: Once we were presenting our first scenario that was based on clearly a crisis, but that could be solved in a shorter time. There were not yet bombing on the facilities that occurred at that specific time and were expanded in the following weeks. We see there is a continuous thing or practically two months already inside the crisis. This crisis is not just a matter of reaching a sort of ceasefire or a peace, but is also to restart a lot of infrastructure and production facilities, processing facilities that were shut down or were impacted by fire and bombing. It will take longer. For this reason, we believe that there is quite an unexpected compliance by the market on the duration of this crisis that appears, I would say, much more impactful than the market is probably evaluating.
Speaker #10: And I was wondering to this point, is CAPEX more of an input to your modeling assumption? I mean, you want to stick to that level of CAPEX despite the current scenario, or there is some headroom for maybe accelerating some of these projects especially the ones in Indonesia?
Even versus the Capital Market Day. The market, Al Market, you could at the middle of March, the event at the time where or just started, uh,
Once we, we were, uh, presenting our first scenario that was based on, on, on, on—clearly a crisis, but—
Speaker #10: And the second question on GGP, just wondering whether you can give us more color behind the increase in guidance and whether that is connected to your higher macro assumptions as well.
Speaker #10: Thank you.
Speaker #7: Okay. I will just a very short introduction, then I leave to Guido Brusco and Christian Signoretto for the two questions. Clearly, CAPEX, we are strict to a level of CAPEX that we want to keep under certain range.
Francesco Gattei: Shut down or were impacted by fire and bombing. It will take longer. For this reason, we believe that there is quite an unexpected compliance by the market on the duration of this crisis that appears, I would say, much more impactful than the market is probably evaluating. On the gas specifically, we believe that in a EUR 40 to 45/MWh environment with an extended shortage of gas, particularly from Qatar, because even if Qatar will be able to restart or there will be some kind of agreement in the coming weeks, it will take times to restart all these plants or this facility to restart the flow. You have to consider there is also bottlenecks in term of tankers or ships and clearly LNG carrier. The overall process of refilling European storage, they completed the winter at the minimum, almost at the minimum, 25%.
Could be solved in a short time there were not yet uh uh bombing on the facilities that occurred the at that specific time and were expanded in the following weeks and we see there is a continuous or practically 2 months already inside the crisis. This crisis is not just a matter of of reaching, a sort of of ceasefire or or a piece. But it's also to restart a lot of, uh, infrastructure and production facilities processing facilities that were
Shut down or were impacted by fire and bombing, so it will take longer.
Speaker #7: You have to consider an exploration that there are explorations that are occurring inside our business combination or affiliates associates that are reported in equity.
Speaker #7: So once you see a discovery in Azul or in Indonesia, this will have a different treatment in terms of CAPEX. Then I leave to Guido to explain also why CAPEX will be relatively softer in this case.
Francesco Gattei: On the gas specifically, we believe that in a EUR 40 to 45/MWh environment with an extended shortage of gas, particularly from Qatar, because even if Qatar will be able to restart or there will be some kind of agreement in the coming weeks, it will take times to restart all these plants or this facility to restart the flow. You have to consider there is also bottlenecks in term of tankers or ships and clearly LNG carrier. The overall process of refilling European storage, they completed the winter at the minimum, almost at the minimum, 25%.
Uh, so, for this reason, we believe that, uh, there is a, a, quite a, an expected compliance by the market on the, on the duration of this crisis that appears, I would say, much more impactful than the market is probably evaluating on the gas, specifically.
Speaker #9: Yeah. I think there are two angles here. One is some of the discoveries are discoveries near infrastructure. So our tieback, which are not requiring massive capital intensity and I mean, those are the ones that on top of what Francesco said that are in Angola like Algaita like the one in Libya or the one in Egypt, basically those are tied in with I mean, low cost.
Speaker #9: The other angle is the others which we have made in Ivory Coast and in Galicia, the one in Ivory Coast, the one in Indonesia, it applies again the concept that Francesco just illustrated.
Francesco Gattei: Now we are at 30%, and then to reach at least 80, 90% before the start of the next winter, will require some price signals that should be increased. Price signal, not only in the amount of the first front month value, but also on the structure of the curve that is not supported. We believe that both on oil and on the gas, our price deck that we have uplifted is still conservative.
Francesco Gattei: Now we are at 30%, and then to reach at least 80, 90% before the start of the next winter, will require some price signals that should be increased. Price signal, not only in the amount of the first front month value, but also on the structure of the curve that is not supported. We believe that both on oil and on the gas, our price deck that we have uplifted is still conservative.
Speaker #9: It is in a business combination. But on those, we can also eventually apply our dual exploration model. So the net CAPEX would be even accretive from our perspective.
Speaker #9: Now, Christian.
Winter. We require some price signals, that should be increased price signals, not only in the amount of the first front month's value, but also on the structure of the curve that is not supported. So we believe that both on oil and on the gas, our price deck that we have uplifted is still conservative.
John Rigby: Thanks, Francesco. Excuse me. Sorry. We're going to now move to Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Alessandro, are you there?
Josh Stone: Thanks, Francesco.
Speaker #10: Yeah. Well, on guidance of GGP, so I'd say based on the Q1 results which were fairly strong and the volume increase and the increase of asset back trading that we have seen in a more volatile scenario, we updated the guidance taking that into consideration and as we said before also extending this let's say situation and scenario broadly along the next months given the situation that Francesco just explained before to you.
Thanks Manchester.
John Rigby: Excuse me. Sorry. We're going to now move to Alessandro Pozzi at Mediobanca. Alessandro, are you there?
Alessandro Pozzi: Yep. Can you hear me? Yeah. Thanks for taking the questions. The first one is on the number of discoveries that you've made so far this year. I was wondering, there is in your capital allocation framework, there is a little room for increase in CapEx, and we all appreciate the need to be disciplined when it comes to CapEx budgeting. I was wondering, at this point, is CapEx more of an input to your modeling assumption? You want to stick to that level of CapEx despite the current scenario, or there is some headroom for maybe accelerating some of these projects, especially the ones in Indonesia. The second question on GGP, just wondering whether you can give us more color behind the increase in guidance and whether that is connected to your higher macro assumptions as well. Thank you.
Alessandro Pozzi: Yep. Can you hear me? Yeah. Thanks for taking the questions. The first one is on the number of discoveries that you've made so far this year. I was wondering, there is in your capital allocation framework, there is a little room for increase in CapEx, and we all appreciate the need to be disciplined when it comes to CapEx budgeting. I was wondering, at this point, is CapEx more of an input to your modeling assumption? You want to stick to that level of CapEx despite the current scenario, or there is some headroom for maybe accelerating some of these projects, especially the ones in Indonesia. The second question on GGP, just wondering whether you can give us more color behind the increase in guidance and whether that is connected to your higher macro assumptions as well. Thank you.
Excuse me. Sorry, are we now going to move to Alessandra Pozzi at Mediobanca? Alessandra, are you there?
Speaker #7: Okay.
Speaker #10: Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the rest of the year?
Speaker #9: No arbitration.
Speaker #10: Say it again. Sorry. Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the next? No. Okay. No. No. Absolutely not.
Speaker #9: No. Thank you. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Alessandro. Next, we're going to move to Al Sime at Citigroup. Al, are you there?
Speaker #11: Yeah. Thanks, John. First question just on gearing. Can you just confirm exactly how much net debt and plenitude that obviously gets deconsolidated into the quarter?
Yep. Um, can you hear me? Yeah. Uh, thanks for taking the questions. Um, the first one is on the number of discoveries that you've made so far and this year. Um, I was wondering, uh, there is in your, uh, capital allocation framework, there's a little room for, um, uh, increase in CapEx. And, uh, we all appreciate the need to be, uh, disciplined when it comes to, um, CapEx budgeting. And I was wondering, you know, to this point, is CapEx more of an input to your modeling assumption? I mean, you want to stick to that level of CapEx?
Speaker #11: And then secondly, there's a question around the biofuels market. Obviously, we're seeing massive price increases through first quarter. You're putting a lot of growth capital in that business.
Speaker #11: But also this week, we've seen Europe's largest airline announce cuts to routing because of the price of jet fuel. And yet I look and see sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, is 40% more expensive than jet fuel.
Speaker #11: So I wonder how you think about the issue of affordability of biofuels in your forecasting and investment horizon. Thank you.
Francesco Gattei: Okay. I will just give a very short introduction, then I leave it to Guido Brusco and Cristian Signoretto for the two questions. Clearly, CapEx, we are sticking to a level of CapEx that we want to keep within a certain range. You have to consider in exploration that there are explorations that are occurring inside our business combinations or affiliates, associates that are reported in equity. So once you see a discovery in Azule or in Indonesia, this will have a different treatment in terms of CapEx. I leave it to Guido to explain also why CapEx will be relatively softer in this case.
Francesco Gattei: Okay. I will just give a very short introduction, then I leave it to Guido Brusco and Cristian Signoretto for the two questions. Clearly, CapEx, we are sticking to a level of CapEx that we want to keep within a certain range. You have to consider in exploration that there are explorations that are occurring inside our business combinations or affiliates, associates that are reported in equity. So once you see a discovery in Azule or in Indonesia, this will have a different treatment in terms of CapEx. I leave it to Guido to explain also why CapEx will be relatively softer in this case.
Speaker #7: Yes. About the plenitude amount of debt that we are going to deconsolidate is 2.6 billion. That clearly will be reduced once there will be the increase of capital as a consequence inside the new entity.
Despite the, uh, the current scenario, is there some, um, headroom for maybe accelerating some of these, uh, uh, projects, especially the ones in Indonesia? And, uh, the second question on, um, on GGP, just wondering whether, um, you can give us more color, uh, behind the increase in guidance and whether that is connected to your higher, uh, macro assumptions as well. Thank you. Okay, I will just give a very short introduction, then I will leave it to Wido, Bruce, and Cristo for the two questions. Clearly, CapEx—we are strict to a level of CapEx that we want to keep under a certain range. You have to consider in exploration that there are exposures that are occurring inside our—
Speaker #7: And then I leave to Stefano Ballista to answer about the biofuel and SAF.
Speaker #5: Yes. No, yes. As you said, the scenario is significantly by market fundamentals. It's driven by the demand increase that we are seeing due to the regulation and the mandates that are under deployment.
Guido Brusco: Yeah, I think there are two angles here. One is, some of the discoveries are discoveries near infrastructure. They are tiebacks which are not requiring massive capital intensity. Those are the ones that on top of what Francesco said, that are in Angola, like Algaita, like the one in Libya or the one in Egypt. Basically, those are tie-ins with low cost. The other angle is the others which we have made in Ivory Coast and in Geliga. The one in Ivory Coast, the one in Indonesia, it applies again the concept that Francesco just illustrated. It is in a business combination. On those, we can also eventually apply our dual exploration model, so the net CapEx would be even accretive from our perspective. Now, Christian.
Guido Brusco: Yeah, I think there are two angles here. One is, some of the discoveries are discoveries near infrastructure. They are tiebacks which are not requiring massive capital intensity. Those are the ones that on top of what Francesco said, that are in Angola, like Algaita, like the one in Libya or the one in Egypt. Basically, those are tie-ins with low cost. The other angle is the others which we have made in Ivory Coast and in Geliga. The one in Ivory Coast, the one in Indonesia, it applies again the concept that Francesco just illustrated. It is in a business combination. On those, we can also eventually apply our dual exploration model, so the net CapEx would be even accretive from our perspective. Now, Christian.
Speaker #5: And these are rules, mandates, target that has been defined. If we look at the most recent definition of new target, I'm thinking about the US with the new renewable volume obligation, we got an increase of about 60% of demand for the next couple of years.
Business combinations or affiliates and associates that are reported in equity—so once you see a discovery in a rule or in Indonesia, this will have a different treatment in terms of capital. And I'd like to leave it to Guido to explain also why the capex will be relatively softer in this case. Yeah, I think there are two handles here. One is some of the discoveries are near infrastructure, so are tie-back, which—
Speaker #5: So this is the main reason. The geopolitical situation is going to give a little bit of extra headroom, marginally compared to the fundamentals. This means actually that the perspective on biofuel is and remain definitely strong.
Speaker #5: When you look at biofuel, you need to look both at renewable diesel on one side and sustainable aviation fuel. The market is coupled. Sustainable aviation fuel is going to be the only answer to decarbonize the aviation transport.
Speaker #5: There is no other answer at the moment. And even with small target in terms of blending, now in Europe, we are about 2%. You can create significant demand but pretty much affecting marginally the overall cost position.
Uh, which are not requiring, uh, massive, uh, capital intensity. Uh, and, um, I mean those are the ones that, on top of what Francesco said, that are in Angola, like Algaida. Uh, like the one in Libya or the one in Egypt. Basically those are tie-ins with, I mean, low, low, low cost. The other angle is the others, which, which we have made in Ivory Coast and in La Liga, the one in Ivory, the, the one in Indonesia. It applies again, the, the concept that Francesco just illustrated. It is in a, in a business combination. But on those, we can also eventually apply our dual exploration models. So the, uh, net capex would be even accretive from, from our, uh, from our perspective. And now,
Cristian Signoretto: Yeah. Well, on guidance of GGP. I'd say based on the Q1 results, which were fairly strong, and the volume increase, and the increase of asset deck trading that we have seen in a more volatile scenario, we updated the guidance, taking that into consideration. As we said before, also extending this, let's say, situation and scenario broadly along the next months, given the situation that Francesco just explained before to you.
Cristian Signoretto: Yeah. Well, on guidance of GGP. I'd say based on the Q1 results, which were fairly strong, and the volume increase, and the increase of asset deck trading that we have seen in a more volatile scenario, we updated the guidance, taking that into consideration. As we said before, also extending this, let's say, situation and scenario broadly along the next months, given the situation that Francesco just explained before to you.
Speaker #5: So we got significant space for improvement not only on renewable diesel at its happening, but also on sustainable aviation fuel with the marginal impact on a marginal component on one side of the component of the aviation business as a whole.
Speaker #5: So this is the view on the biofuel. And as I said, there is no other answer actually to decarbonize the aviation sector for a long while.
Alessandro Pozzi: Okay. Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the rest of the year?
Alessandro Pozzi: Okay. Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the rest of the year?
Yeah, well, um, on guidance of ggp. So I'd say, based on the q1 results, which were fairly strong, and the volume increase, and the increase of asset back, uh, trading that we have seen in a more volatile scenario. Uh, we, we updated the, the guidance taking that into consideration. And, as we said before, also, extending this, let's say situation and scenario, broadly, uh, along the, the, the next months given the situation that Francesco just explained before to you.
Cristian Signoretto: Say it again, sorry.
Cristian Signoretto: Say it again, sorry.
Speaker #11: It's definitely. Sorry. I mean, Europe's largest airline is basically said they can't afford jet fuel at this price. And I accept the mandate. It's only 2%, but it's meant to go up.
Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the rest of the year?
Alessandro Pozzi: Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the?
Alessandro Pozzi: Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the?
Say it again, sorry.
Cristian Signoretto: No
Cristian Signoretto: No
Alessandro Pozzi: Next. No. Okay.
Alessandro Pozzi: Next. No. Okay.
Cristian Signoretto: No, absolutely not.
Cristian Signoretto: No, absolutely not.
Speaker #11: So how on earth are they going to be able to afford a high percentage of biofuel of SAF if it's 40% more expensive than the price of jet fuel they said they can't afford?
Alessandro Pozzi: Thank you.
Alessandro Pozzi: Thank you.
Cristian Signoretto: Thank you.
Cristian Signoretto: Thank you.
Alessandro Pozzi: Thank you.
Alessandro Pozzi: Thank you.
Is there any new arbitration that we need to be aware of for the next year? No? Okay. No, no, absolutely. Thank you. Thank you.
John Rigby: Thanks, Alessandro. Next, we're going to move to Alastair Syme at Citigroup. Al, are you there?
John Rigby: Thanks, Alessandro. Next, we're going to move to Alastair Syme at Citigroup. Al, are you there?
Alastair Syme: Yeah. Thanks, John. First question just on gearing. Can you just confirm exactly how much net debt sits in Plenitude that obviously gets deconsolidated in Q3?
Al Syme: Yeah. Thanks, John. First question just on gearing. Can you just confirm exactly how much net debt sits in Plenitude that obviously gets deconsolidated in Q3?
Thanks, Alessandro. Next, we're going to move to Al Alzheimer at Citigroup. Al, are you there?
Speaker #11: It seems to be a conundrum, right?
Speaker #7: Okay. I can we can comment about what was the statement. But from our point of view, clearly, the biofuel now as a solution to have resource fuel in a situation of scarcity, the premium eventually could reflect the impact of the scarcity.
Alastair Syme: Secondly, a little bit of question around the biofuels market. Obviously, we're seeing massive price increases through Q1. You're putting a lot of growth capital in that business. Also this week, we've seen Europe's largest airline announce cuts to routing because of the price of jet fuel. Yet, I look and see sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, is 40% more expensive than jet fuel. I wonder how you think about the issue of affordability of biofuels, in your forecasting and investment horizon. Thank you.
Al Syme: Secondly, a little bit of question around the biofuels market. Obviously, we're seeing massive price increases through Q1. You're putting a lot of growth capital in that business. Also this week, we've seen Europe's largest airline announce cuts to routing because of the price of jet fuel. Yet, I look and see sustainable aviation fuel, SAF, is 40% more expensive than jet fuel. I wonder how you think about the issue of affordability of biofuels, in your forecasting and investment horizon. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, John. Um, first question, just on gearing—can you just confirm exactly how much net debt is on Plenitude that obviously gets deconsolidated and into the quarter?
You have a question about the BAR fuels?
Market. Obviously, we're seeing, you know, massive price increases through the first quarter.
Speaker #7: And you have to consider the supply chain or the chain of production of SAF is relatively young and small. Once you will have a potential larger market, you have also improved synergies.
Um, you know, you're putting a lot of growth capital.
In that business, but also this week, you know, we've seen Europe's largest airline.
Speaker #7: So the cost position is not just a matter of, let's say, industrial process. It's also a matter of having this process aligned in terms of size and materiality with domain potential.
And now it’s cuts to routing because of the price of jet fuel.
And yet, you know, I look and see sustainable aviation, for yourself, is 40% more expensive than jet fuel. So—
Speaker #7: We do expect that after this crisis, there will environmental solution, but also a reply towards a potential diversification risk to deploy a larger use of this kind of alternative solution for ships, for airplane, and for cars too.
Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the Plenitude amount of debt that we are going to deconsolidate is EUR 2.6 billion. That clearly will be reduced once there will be the increase of capital as a consequence inside the new entity. Then I leave to Stefano Ballista to answer about the biofuel and the SAF.
Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the Plenitude amount of debt that we are going to deconsolidate is EUR 2.6 billion. That clearly will be reduced once there will be the increase of capital as a consequence inside the new entity. Then I leave to Stefano Ballista to answer about the biofuel and the SAF.
You know, I wonder how you think about the issue with affordability of BS in your forecasting and investment horizon. Thank you.
Stefano Ballista: Yes. As you said, the scenario significantly improved. Actually, the main reason for the scenario improvement, it's driven by market fundamentals. It's driven by the demand increase that we are seeing due to the regulation and the mandates that are under deployment. These are rules, mandates, target that has been defined. If we look at the most recent definition of new target, I'm thinking about US with a new Renewable Volume Obligation, we got an increase of about 60% of demand for the next couple of years. This is the main reason. The geopolitical situation is going to give a little bit of extra headroom, but marginally compared to the fundamentals. This means actually that the perspective on biofuel is and remain definitely strong. When you look at biofuel, you need to look both at renewable diesel on one side and sustainable aviation fuel.
Stefano Ballista: Yes. As you said, the scenario significantly improved. Actually, the main reason for the scenario improvement, it's driven by market fundamentals. It's driven by the demand increase that we are seeing due to the regulation and the mandates that are under deployment. These are rules, mandates, target that has been defined. If we look at the most recent definition of new target, I'm thinking about US with a new Renewable Volume Obligation, we got an increase of about 60% of demand for the next couple of years. This is the main reason. The geopolitical situation is going to give a little bit of extra headroom, but marginally compared to the fundamentals. This means actually that the perspective on biofuel is and remain definitely strong. When you look at biofuel, you need to look both at renewable diesel on one side and sustainable aviation fuel.
Yes, about the plan for the amount of data that you are going to deconsolidate, it is €2.6 billion, which clearly will be reduced in the answer. There will be an increase of capital as a consequence inside the new entity. And then I’ll leave you to answer about the biofuel and stuff.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Al. We're now going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele.
Yes, no. Yes, as you said, the scenario has significantly improved, and actually, the main reason for the scenario improvement is that it's driven by market fundamentals.
Speaker #12: Thank you very much. I wanted to follow up on your exceptional exploration success. And I believe you've also completed the first quarter well in Libya and was wondering what were the early results there.
It's driven by the demand increase that we are seeing due to the regulation and the mandate that are under deployment.
Speaker #12: And second, I wanted to come back to aviation, but from a different side, I think we keep reading that we may be short of kerosene this summer.
Speaker #12: How do you see the situation and how low do you think inventories days can go before flights are actually starting to be grounded? And how much do you think that in your refiners, you can actually tilt towards more just fuel production?
Speaker #12: Thank you.
Speaker #7: I leave to Guido to answer both questions.
Stefano Ballista: The market is coupled. Sustainable aviation fuel is going to be the only answer to decarbonize the aviation transport. There is no other answer at the moment. Even with a small target in terms of blending, now in Europe, we are about 2%. You can create significant demand, but pretty much affecting marginally the overall cost position. We got significant space for improvement, not only on renewable diesel, and it's happening, but also on sustainable aviation fuel with marginal impact on a marginal component, on one side of the component, of the aviation business as a whole. This is the view on the biofuel. As I said, there is no other answer actually to decarbonize the aviation sector for a long while.
Stefano Ballista: The market is coupled. Sustainable aviation fuel is going to be the only answer to decarbonize the aviation transport. There is no other answer at the moment. Even with a small target in terms of blending, now in Europe, we are about 2%. You can create significant demand, but pretty much affecting marginally the overall cost position. We got significant space for improvement, not only on renewable diesel, and it's happening, but also on sustainable aviation fuel with marginal impact on a marginal component, on one side of the component, of the aviation business as a whole. This is the view on the biofuel. As I said, there is no other answer actually to decarbonize the aviation sector for a long while.
And these are, uh, rules, mandates, targets that have been defined. If we look at the most recent definition of new targets, I'm thinking about us with the new Renewable Volume Obligation. We got an increase of about 60% of demand for the next couple of years. So this is the main reason; the geopolitical situation is going to give a little bit of extra headroom, but marginally compared to the fundamentals. This means actually that the perspective on biofuel is, and remains, definitely strong. And when you look at biofuel, you need to look both at renewable diesel on one side and sustainable aviation, you know, fuel—the market is coupled.
Speaker #5: So the one in Libya resulted in a non-commercial discovery. And but it was very important either for us to have a better understanding of the basin, which is quite large, huge, diverse in terms of number of prospects, and so you have to think that this is a block where the last well drilled was drilled by us in the early 2000s.
Sustainable aviation fuel is going to be the only answer to decarbonize the aviation transport. There is no other answer at the moment, and even with the small, uh, target in terms of blending—now, in Europe, we are about 2%—you can create significant demand, but pretty much
Affecting marginally the overall cost position.
Speaker #5: So we are talking of a large basin with quite a number of untapped resources. So it's the first well, but we'll have for sure more understanding of the basin.
So we get, we got significant space for improvement. Not only on renewable diesel, at it's happening. But also some sustainable aviation fuel with the marginal impact, on a marginal component on 1 side of the component of the aviation business as a whole. So this is the The View on on on the bio fuel and as I said, there is no other answer actually to the carbonized the aviation
Speaker #5: As far as concerns the jet fuel, as I said before, we are prepared to satisfy and honor our commitment with our customer, of course, the situation is very different and diverse if you I mean, if you look at the different flight operator and supplier.
Alastair Syme: It's Stefano. Sorry. I mean, Europe's largest airline has basically said they can't afford jet fuel at this price. I accept the mandate is only 2%, but it's meant to go up. How on earth are they going to be able to afford a high percentage of biofuel, of SAF, if it's 40% more expensive than the price of jet fuel they said they can't afford?
Al Syme: It's Stefano. Sorry. I mean, Europe's largest airline has basically said they can't afford jet fuel at this price. I accept the mandate is only 2%, but it's meant to go up. How on earth are they going to be able to afford a high percentage of biofuel, of SAF, if it's 40% more expensive than the price of jet fuel they said they can't afford?
On a sector for a long while.
Francesco Gattei: Yes.
Francesco Gattei: Yes.
Speaker #5: But as far as concerns, ENI, we are prepared to satisfy our customers.
It's definitely—sorry. I mean, you know, Europe's largest Zelen has basically said they can't afford jet fuel at this price, and I accept the mandate is only 22%, but it's meant to go up. So, you know, how on earth are they going to be able to afford a high percentage of biofuel or SAF if it's 40% more expensive than the price of jet fuel? They said they can't afford it.
Alastair Syme: It seems to be a conundrum, right?
Al Syme: It seems to be a conundrum, right?
Francesco Gattei: Okay. We can comment about what was the statement. From our point of view, clearly, the biofuel now as a solution to have a resource of fuel in a situation of scarcity, the premium eventually could reflect the impact of this scarcity. You have to consider the supply chain or the chain of production of SAF is relatively young and small. Once you will have a potential larger market, you have also improved synergies. The cost position is not just a matter of, let's say, industrial process. It's also a matter of having this process aligned in terms of size and materiality with the main potential.
Francesco Gattei: Okay. We can comment about what was the statement. From our point of view, clearly, the biofuel now as a solution to have a resource of fuel in a situation of scarcity, the premium eventually could reflect the impact of this scarcity. You have to consider the supply chain or the chain of production of SAF is relatively young and small. Once you will have a potential larger market, you have also improved synergies. The cost position is not just a matter of, let's say, industrial process. It's also a matter of having this process aligned in terms of size and materiality with the main potential.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Michele. We're going to now move to Paul Redman at BNP. Paul, are you there?
Yes, seems to be a conundrum, right? Okay. I think we can comment about what the statement was about from our point of view. Clearly, the value of, well, now,
Speaker #13: Yeah. Thank you very much. The first question has just come back to ENI Live. Could you give us some insight into kind of what you've seen in terms of margins February, March, and what you're seeing in April for the biofuel business?
Speaker #13: And is there a lot stronger? I was surprised the EBITDA guidance didn't get upgraded. Is this because biofuels is positive, but the commercial business may be having a few more issues?
Speaker #13: And then secondly, just on working capital, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you expect this to come down. Could you just talk us through how you expect that to play out?
Francesco Gattei: We do expect that after this crisis, there will be, as a reply, not only an environmental solution, but also a reply towards a potential diversification risk to deploy a larger use of this kind of alternative solution for ships, for airplane, and for cars, too.
Francesco Gattei: We do expect that after this crisis, there will be, as a reply, not only an environmental solution, but also a reply towards a potential diversification risk to deploy a larger use of this kind of alternative solution for ships, for airplane, and for cars, too.
At a solution to have a resourceful in a situation of scarcity, the premium eventually could reflect the impact of the of the of the of this car city. And you have to consider the supply chain or the chain of production of stuff is relatively young as small. Once, you will have a potential larger market. You have also improved synergies. So the cost position is not just a matter of uh, let's see. Industrial process is also a matter of having this process aligned in terms of size and materiality. With the domain potential, we do expect that.
Speaker #13: Thank you.
After this crisis.
Speaker #7: I leave to Stefano to answer on any live, and then I will reply on the working capital.
There will be.
Speaker #5: Yes. First of all, on this scenario, actually, the scenario on biofuel improved significantly along the first quarter even before the starting of the conflict.
Speaker #5: This was true in Europe, and it's, as I said before, linked to mandates. So it's fundamental. An example, we got recently approved in Holland the new GHG target is 28% versus a red 3 of 14%.
This is a reply not only on environmental solutions, but also a reply toward a potential diversification risk in deploying a larger use of this kind of alternative solution for ships, for airplanes, and for cars too.
John Rigby: Thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Al. We're now going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?
John Rigby: Thanks, Francesco. Thanks, Al. We're now going to move to Michele Della Vigna at Goldman Sachs. Michele?
Michele Della Vigna: Thank you very much. I wanted to follow up on your exceptional exploration success, and I believe you've also completed the first deepwater well in Libya, and was wondering what were the early results there. Second, I wanted to come back to aviation, but from a different side. I think we keep reading that we may be short of kerosene this summer. How do you see the situation, and how low do you think inventory days can go before flights are actually starting to be grounded? How much do you think that in your refiners, you can actually tilt towards more jet fuel production? Thank you.
Michele Della Vigna: Thank you very much. I wanted to follow up on your exceptional exploration success, and I believe you've also completed the first deepwater well in Libya, and was wondering what were the early results there. Second, I wanted to come back to aviation, but from a different side. I think we keep reading that we may be short of kerosene this summer. How do you see the situation, and how low do you think inventory days can go before flights are actually starting to be grounded? How much do you think that in your refiners, you can actually tilt towards more jet fuel production? Thank you.
Goldman Sachs mikeli.
Speaker #5: And we got no more double counting. So a good news, to be honest, fully expected. Same in the US, we got a market significantly increasing again linked to fundamental, even in the first quarter, we got an average on the green about 1.5 dollar per in.
Speaker #5: It was less than a dollar last year. And now we are about 1.8 after the approval of the new target. So the market was already expecting the new mandates.
Speaker #5: In terms of output, it has been even better. So this got an extra drive in terms of overall margin. So this is in terms of market setting.
Speaker #5: In terms of results, a comment. In the first quarter, we got as any live as a whole 220 million of EBITDA per format adjusted.
Flights are actually starting to be, um, to be grounded. And, um, how much do you think that in your refinance you can actually tilt towards more just to your production? Thank you.
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Guido to answer both questions.
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Guido to answer both questions.
I live to Guido to answer both questions.
Guido Brusco: Yes. The one in Libya, it resulted in a non-commercial discovery. It was very important either for us to have a better understanding of the basin, which is quite large, huge, diverse in terms of number of prospects. You have to think that this is a block where the last well drilled was drilled by us in the early 2000s. We are talking of a large basin, with quite a number of untapped resources. It is the first well, but we'll have, for sure, more understanding of the basin. As far as concerns the jet fuel, as I said before.
Guido Brusco: Yes. The one in Libya, it resulted in a non-commercial discovery. It was very important either for us to have a better understanding of the basin, which is quite large, huge, diverse in terms of number of prospects. You have to think that this is a block where the last well drilled was drilled by us in the early 2000s. We are talking of a large basin, with quite a number of untapped resources. It is the first well, but we'll have, for sure, more understanding of the basin. As far as concerns the jet fuel, as I said before.
Speaker #5: This means 50 million above than the first quarter of last year. And this has been fully driven by bio refinery performance that actually on top of driving the upside as you said, balanced the partial pressure on retail prices that we are experiencing in Europe linked to fossil fuel prices.
So the, the, the one, um, the one in, in, in Libya, it resulted in a non-commercial, uh, uh, discovery. And, uh, but it was, um, it was very important either for us to have a better understanding of the basin, which is quite, uh, quite large, huge.
Speaker #5: On top, I want to highlight that actually in the first quarter, we got Venice under a maintenance and upgrading maintenance. So it has been shut down for the whole quarter.
Diverse in terms of number of prospects, uh, and so you have to think that this is a block where, uh,
Speaker #5: And that result has been achieved without that kind of production. Venice is going to come in place during the second quarter. And we're going to be at full potential for the second half.
The last, well drilled was drilled by s in the early 2000s. So we are we are talking of a of a
A large basin, uh, with, um, with quite a number of, uh, uh, untapped resources. So
Speaker #5: So being the condition of capturing results. Last comment, as I said, we were definitely expecting the improvement of the scenario even in the business plan.
Guido Brusco: We are prepared to satisfy and honor our commitment with our customer. Of course, the situation is very different and diverse if you look at the different flight operator and supplier. As far as concerns Eni, we are prepared to satisfy our customers.
Guido Brusco: We are prepared to satisfy and honor our commitment with our customer. Of course, the situation is very different and diverse if you look at the different flight operator and supplier. As far as concerns Eni, we are prepared to satisfy our customers.
Speaker #5: So this improvement has been for the majority already crafted in our business plan. That one related to fundamentals. The extra upside assuming the extra upside is going to last for the time being, this is going to get an additional value that we are capturing and we're going to keep capturing.
is the is the first well. But, uh, we'll, we'll have for sure more understanding of the Basin as far as concern, the jet fuel, as I said before, we are uh prepared to satisfy and honor our commitment with our customer. Of course, the situation is is very different and diverse. If you I mean if you if you look at the different uh uh flight operator and uh, and supplier, but
Speaker #3: Thanks, Paul. So watch this space. The next questions have come from Lydia Rainforth at Barclays.
As far as concern, he and I, we are prepared to satisfy our customers.
John Rigby: Thanks, Michele. We're going to now move to Paul Rebmann at BNP. Paul, are you there?
John Rigby: Thanks, Michele. We're going to now move to Paul Rebmann at BNP. Paul, are you there?
Speaker #14: Thanks, John. And good afternoon to you all. Two questions, if I could. I mean, just one. Can we?
Paul Rebmann: Yeah. Thank you very much. First question, just come back to Enilive. Could you give us some insight into kind of what you've seen in terms of margins February, March, and what you're seeing in April for the biofuel business? And if they are a lot stronger, I was surprised the EBITDA guidance didn't get upgraded. Is this because biofuels is positive, but the commercial business may be having a few more issues? And then secondly, just on working capital, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you expect this to come down. Could you just talk us through how you expect that to play out? Thank you.
Paul Redman: Yeah. Thank you very much. First question, just come back to Enilive. Could you give us some insight into kind of what you've seen in terms of margins February, March, and what you're seeing in April for the biofuel business? And if they are a lot stronger, I was surprised the EBITDA guidance didn't get upgraded. Is this because biofuels is positive, but the commercial business may be having a few more issues? And then secondly, just on working capital, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you expect this to come down. Could you just talk us through how you expect that to play out? Thank you.
Thanks michaeli. Uh we're going to now move to uh Paul Redmond at BNP. Uh Paul. Are you there?
Speaker #7: No, I would like just to answer about the working capital very fast. The working capital will turn back, will improve in the immediately in the next quarter and clearly along the year is subject to the evolution of the spike of the price that we see.
Speaker #7: We were at the we recognized in the first quarter. Sorry, Lydia, please continue. Thanks.
Speaker #14: No, no, that was important to say. Thank you very much for that. Just two questions. One, I just wanted to touch on Venezuela and what you're seeing there.
Speaker #14: And then the second one, I'm sorry, this is more of a long-term thing, but are you seeing in terms of the conversations you're having with the host nations, with the governments, has anything changed yet?
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Stefano to answer on Enilive, and then I will reply on the working capital.
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Stefano to answer on Enilive, and then I will reply on the working capital.
Yeah, thank you very much. Um, first question is just coming back to Iani Live. Um, could you give us some insight into what you've seen in terms of margins in February, March, and what you're seeing in April for the biofuel business, and is there a lot stronger? I was surprised the, um, even if ENI's guidance didn't get upgraded, is this because biofuels is positive, but the commercial business may be having a few more issues? Um, and then, secondly, just on working capital, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that you expect this to come down. Could you just talk us through how you expect that to play out? Thank you.
Stefano Ballista: Yes. First of all, on the scenario. Actually, the scenario on biofuel improved significantly along Q1, even before the starting of the conflict. This was true in Europe, and it's, as I said before, linked to mandate, so to fundamental. An example, we got recently approved in Holland, the new GHG target is 28% versus a RED III of 14%, and we got no more double counting. A good news, to be honest, fully expected. Same in US, we got the market significantly increasing, again, linked to fundamental. Even in Q1, we got an average on the RIN, about $1.5 per RIN. It was less than $1 last year. Now we are about $1.8 after the approval of the new target. The market was already expecting the new mandates.
Stefano Ballista: Yes. First of all, on the scenario. Actually, the scenario on biofuel improved significantly along Q1, even before the starting of the conflict. This was true in Europe, and it's, as I said before, linked to mandate, so to fundamental. An example, we got recently approved in Holland, the new GHG target is 28% versus a RED III of 14%, and we got no more double counting. A good news, to be honest, fully expected. Same in US, we got the market significantly increasing, again, linked to fundamental. Even in Q1, we got an average on the RIN, about $1.5 per RIN. It was less than $1 last year. Now we are about $1.8 after the approval of the new target. The market was already expecting the new mandates.
I like to answer on any line, and then I will reply on the working capital.
Speaker #14: Are they certainly going actually, we'd like to accelerate plans around exploration. We want more in terms of energy security. We want you involved more.
Speaker #14: So just if there's anything, those sort of conversations, is it just too early for that at this point?
Speaker #7: On Venezuela, just a month ago, we've signed an agreement which we called Cardone for Sustainability Agreement, which would allow us to basically produce sustainably the gas and provide energy to the country.
Yes. Uh first of all on this scenario, actually the scenario on biofuel uh improved significantly along the first quarter, uh, even before the starting of the conflict, this is was true in Europe and it's, as I said before, linked to mandate. So to fundamental an example, we got recently approved in Holland. The new ghg Target is 28% versus the red 3 or 14% And we got no more double counting. So a good news to be honest, fully expected
Speaker #7: And this implies also future so this fix for the future, essentially. And implies also some activity to do some debottlenecking to the plant to increase slightly the amount of volume to the domestic and to have an export outlet for the larger resources which Perla carries, basically.
Stefano Ballista: In terms of output, it has been even better, so this got an extra drive in terms of overall margin. This is in terms of market setting. In terms of results, a comment. In Q1, we got, as Enilive as a whole, EUR 220 million of EBITDA pro forma adjusted. This means EUR 50 million above than Q1 of last year. This has been fully driven by biorefinery performance. It actually, on top of driving the upside, as you said, balanced the downward pressure on retail prices that we are experiencing in Europe linked to fossil fuel prices. On top, I want to highlight that actually in Q1, we got Venice under maintenance and upgrading maintenance. It has been shut down for the whole quarter, and that result has been achieved without that kind of production.
Stefano Ballista: In terms of output, it has been even better, so this got an extra drive in terms of overall margin. This is in terms of market setting. In terms of results, a comment. In Q1, we got, as Enilive as a whole, EUR 220 million of EBITDA pro forma adjusted. This means EUR 50 million above than Q1 of last year. This has been fully driven by biorefinery performance. It actually, on top of driving the upside, as you said, balanced the downward pressure on retail prices that we are experiencing in Europe linked to fossil fuel prices. On top, I want to highlight that actually in Q1, we got Venice under maintenance and upgrading maintenance. It has been shut down for the whole quarter, and that result has been achieved without that kind of production.
Speaker #7: Perla is a reservoir of 20 TCF. So there is quite a significant potential for an export. On the oil side, we have two assets there.
Speaker #7: One in conventional water and one unconventional onshore. Two things happened. I mean, first, a new general license was issued by OFAC, which allows the I mean, the operator to carry activity in Venezuela.
Same in us. We got the market significantly increasing again. Linked to fundamental even in the first quarter. We got an average and the, the, the ring about 1.5 per in, it was less than a dollar last year. And, and now, we are about 1.8 after the approval of the new Target. So, the market was already expecting the new mandates in term of output, it has been even better. So this got an extra, uh, Drive in term of overall margin. So this is in term of Market setting in term of results. A comment in the first quarter, we got as any lab as a whole 220%, 50 million above, then the first quarter of last year and this has been fully driven by bio Refinery performance. It actually, on top of driving the upside, as you said, balance, the partial pressure on retail prices that we are experiencing is in Europe.
To fossil fuel prices.
Stefano Ballista: Venice is going to come in place during Q2, and we're going to be at full potential for H2, so being the condition for capturing results. Last comment, as I said, we were definitely expecting the improvement of the scenario, even in the business plan. This improvement has been, for the majority, already crafted in our business plan. That one related to fundamentals. The extra upside, assuming the extra upside is going to last for the time being, is going to get an additional value that we are capturing, and we're going to keep capturing.
Stefano Ballista: Venice is going to come in place during Q2, and we're going to be at full potential for H2, so being the condition for capturing results. Last comment, as I said, we were definitely expecting the improvement of the scenario, even in the business plan. This improvement has been, for the majority, already crafted in our business plan. That one related to fundamentals. The extra upside, assuming the extra upside is going to last for the time being, is going to get an additional value that we are capturing, and we're going to keep capturing.
Speaker #7: And second, a new hydrocarbon law was enacted in the end of January this year and this provides a framework, a legal framework, a fiscal framework to develop in a sustainable way our oil assets and, of course, we are engaging the authorities to make this happen.
On top of, I want to highlight that actually in the, in the first quarter, we got Venice and, um, maintenance and upgrading maintenance. So it has been shut down for the whole quarter. And that result has been achieved without that kind of production. When it's going to come, uh, in place during the second quarter, and we're going to be at full potential for the second half. So being the condition of capturing, uh, results. Last comment, as I said,
Speaker #3: And Lydia's second question was on host governments and changing?
Speaker #7: In Venezuela?
Speaker #3: Oh, more broadly, I think, as well.
We were definitely expecting the improvement of the scenario, even in the business plan. So, this improvement has been for the majority already crafted in our business plan. That one related to fundamentals, the extra side. Assuming the extra side is going to last for the time being, this is going to get an additional value that we are capturing, and we're going to keep capturing.
John Rigby: Thanks, Paul. Watch this space. The next questions will come from Lydia Rainforth of Barclays.
John Rigby: Thanks, Paul. Watch this space. The next questions will come from Lydia Rainforth of Barclays.
Speaker #7: Accelerate exploration. Yeah. Yeah. No, I mean, broadly, there is, of course, a positive reaction from government and we are noticing in several geographies that government are more prone to provide the right enabler for the operator to increase exploration provide fiscal term to produce strengthened resources, of course, there is a price element which plays a significant role, but many governments are trying to introduce enablers to make it possible.
This space.
Um, the next, uh, questions that come from Lydia Rainford, from Barclays.
Lydia Rainforth: Thanks, John, and good afternoon to you all. Two questions, if I could. I mean, just one-
Lydia Rainforth: Thanks, John, and good afternoon to you all. Two questions, if I could. I mean, just one-
Guido Brusco: Sorry.
Francesco Gattei: Sorry.
Lydia Rainforth: Sure.
Lydia Rainforth: Sure.
Guido Brusco: No, I would like just to answer about the working capital very fast.
Francesco Gattei: No, I would like just to answer about the working capital very fast.
Lydia Rainforth: Okay.
Lydia Rainforth: Okay.
Guido Brusco: The working capital will turn back, will improve immediately in the next quarter, and clearly along the year is subject to the evolution of the spike in the price that we, let's say, were recognizing in Q1. Sorry, Lydia, please continue. Thanks.
Francesco Gattei: The working capital will turn back, will improve immediately in the next quarter, and clearly along the year is subject to the evolution of the spike in the price that we, let's say, were recognizing in Q1. Sorry, Lydia, please continue. Thanks.
Lydia Rainforth: No, that was important to say. Thank you very much for that. Just two questions. One, I just wanted to touch on Venezuela and what you're seeing there. Then the second one, and sorry, this is more of a long-term thing, but in terms of the conversations you're having with host nations, with governments, has anything changed yet? Are they suddenly going, "Actually, we'd like to accelerate plans around exploration. We want more in terms of energy security. We want you involved more." So if there's anything, those sort of conversations, or is it just too early for that at this point?
Lydia Rainforth: No, that was important to say. Thank you very much for that. Just two questions. One, I just wanted to touch on Venezuela and what you're seeing there. Then the second one, and sorry, this is more of a long-term thing, but in terms of the conversations you're having with host nations, with governments, has anything changed yet? Are they suddenly going, "Actually, we'd like to accelerate plans around exploration. We want more in terms of energy security. We want you involved more." So if there's anything, those sort of conversations, or is it just too early for that at this point?
Just 1, can we now I would like just to answer about the working capital very fast. The working capital will will turn back will improve in the immediately in the next quarter and clearly along the year is subject to the evolution of the spike of the price that we let's say we were at we recognizing the first quarter, sorry. Did you please continue? Thanks.
Speaker #7: The focus is on energy security, of course, most of them are trying to maximize the domestic production. On the government side, on the international oil company, side, of course, diversification is another pillar of the strategy.
Speaker #7: It has proven in the last five years that two major providers of energy, Russia and Middle East, for both oil and gas, have failed to or has proven that they could fail to deliver and diversification in other geographies like Far East and South America or America in general and Africa is very welcomed now in the strategy.
No, no, that was important. So thank you very much for that. Um, just 2 questions and 1, I just wanted to touch on Venezuela and what you're seeing there and then the second 1, I'm sorry, this is more of a long-term thing that are. You see? In terms of the conversations you're having with host nations? With governments has anything changed yet? Are they something going? Actually, we'd like to accelerate plans around exploration. We want more in terms of energy Security, will we want? You involved more so just if there's anything those sort of conversations or is it just too early for that at this point?
Guido Brusco: On Venezuela, just a month ago, we signed an agreement which we called Cardón IV Sustainability Agreement, which would allow us to basically produce sustainably the gas and provide energy to the country. This implies also future fix for the future, essentially, and implies also some activity to do some debottlenecking to the plant to increase slightly the amount of volume to the domestic and to have an export outlet for the larger resources, which Perla carries. Basically, Perla is a reservoir of 20 TCF, so there is quite a significant potential for an export. On the oil side, we have two assets there, one conventional offshore and one unconventional onshore. Two things happened. First, a new general license was issued by OFAC, which allows the operator to carry activity in Venezuela. Second, a new hydrocarbon law was enacted in the end of January this year.
Guido Brusco: On Venezuela, just a month ago, we signed an agreement which we called Cardón IV Sustainability Agreement, which would allow us to basically produce sustainably the gas and provide energy to the country. This implies also future fix for the future, essentially, and implies also some activity to do some debottlenecking to the plant to increase slightly the amount of volume to the domestic and to have an export outlet for the larger resources, which Perla carries. Basically, Perla is a reservoir of 20 TCF, so there is quite a significant potential for an export. On the oil side, we have two assets there, one conventional offshore and one unconventional onshore. Two things happened. First, a new general license was issued by OFAC, which allows the operator to carry activity in Venezuela. Second, a new hydrocarbon law was enacted in the end of January this year.
On Venezuela. Um,
Speaker #7: As Ian and I, we are very well positioned in these three geographies. We are the very limited exposure to Russia. We have, as I said before, limited exposure to the Middle East.
Speaker #7: And if you look at the portfolio in the long term, which we presented also at our last CMU, the Americas Africa and Far East will play a larger role in our portfolio.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Guido. We're now going to move to Martin Rats. At Morgan Stanley. Martin.
Just um, a month ago, we we we've signed an agreement which we called Cardone for sustainability agreement, which uh, uh, would allow us to basically, uh, produce sustainably, uh, the gas and provide provide energy to the, to the country. And, uh, and this implies also, uh, future. Uh, so this fix for the future essentially, and, um, implies also, uh, some activity, uh, to do some, the bottlenecking to the plant to increase slightly the, the amount of volume to the domestic and to, uh, to have an export outlet for the uh, for the larger resources, which uh, which Perla carries, basically Perla is a, is a reservoir of 20 TC. So there's, there's a quite a significant potential for, uh, for an export, um, on the, on the oil on the oil side. Uh, we
Speaker #15: Yeah. Thanks, John. I've got two. First of all, I just thought I'll ask you a broad question about demand destruction. Clearly, it's a topic with a broad range of views of whether there is and how much oil and gas demand might have been destroyed as a result of these high prices.
Have to to assets there. Uh, 1 in a conventional water and 1 uh, unconventional on Shore. Um,
Speaker #15: But I was wondering if you could share a perspective and to be clear, the nature of the question goes just beyond jet fuel, which is sort of separate topic.
Speaker #15: It's in its own right. But what do you think is the amount of oil demand that has been destroyed as a result of these very high prices?
Guido Brusco: This provides a legal framework, a fiscal framework to develop in a sustainable way our oil assets. Of course, we are engaging the authorities to make this happen.
Guido Brusco: This provides a legal framework, a fiscal framework to develop in a sustainable way our oil assets. Of course, we are engaging the authorities to make this happen.
Speaker #15: And the second thing I wanted to ask you is about the Argentina LNG FID, I noticed there wasn't a mention anymore of it in the One Cube sort of statement.
2 things happened. Um, I mean, first a new general license uh, was um, was issued by ofak which uh allows the uh I mean the operator to, to carry activity uh in uh in Venezuela and second a new, uh, hydrocarbon law was was enacted uh in uh in the end of of January this year. And this provides a framework, a legal framework, a fiscal framework to uh, develop in a sustainable way our oil assets. And of course we are engaging the authorities to to make this happen.
Speaker #15: But that should still be on the schedule for later this year, no? I just wanted to confirm that.
John Rigby: Lydia's second question was on host governments and changing-
John Rigby: Lydia's second question was on host governments and changing-
Speaker #7: About demand destruction, I think that thinking about demand destruction a matter of one month and a half, is too early. So I think that demand is there.
Guido Brusco: In Venezuela.
Guido Brusco: In Venezuela.
John Rigby: No, more broadly, I think, as well.
John Rigby: No, more broadly, I think, as well.
Francesco Gattei: Accelerate the exploration.
Francesco Gattei: Accelerate the exploration.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. No, broadly, there is of course a positive reaction from government. We are noticing in several geographies that government are more prone to provide the right enabler for the operator to increase exploration, provide fiscal term to produce stranded resources. Of course, there is a price element, which plays a significant role, but many government are trying to introduce enablers to make it possible. The focus is on energy security. Of course, most of them are trying to maximize the domestic production on the government side. On the international oil company side, of course, diversification is another pillar of the strategy.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. No, broadly, there is of course a positive reaction from government. We are noticing in several geographies that government are more prone to provide the right enabler for the operator to increase exploration, provide fiscal term to produce stranded resources. Of course, there is a price element, which plays a significant role, but many government are trying to introduce enablers to make it possible. The focus is on energy security. Of course, most of them are trying to maximize the domestic production on the government side. On the international oil company side, of course, diversification is another pillar of the strategy.
Speaker #7: Clearly, there is a potentially some small reduction that potential buyers that do not afford, but demand destruction is generally happening in a certain time frame.
Speaker #7: So for the time being, you see that there is no demand destruction. There is supply destruction. There is storage use. And there is some kind of switch wherever it is possible to switch.
And Lydia's, second question was um, on a house governments and changing. Um, in Venezuela, oh, more broadly, I think as well, we celebrate the exploration. Uh, yeah. Yeah. No. The, the, the, I mean, broadly there is a, there is a, of course, a positive, uh, reaction from government. Uh, and we, we are, we're noticing in in several geographies that, uh, government are more prone to, uh, provide the, uh, the right enabler for the operator to increase exploration.
Speaker #7: Eventually, in certain coal, gas, plants. But I haven't seen a real material destruction in terms of demand from the data that we can collect.
Speaker #7: About the Argentina LNG, I will leave to Guido for completing the question.
Speaker #16: On Argentina LNG, we are still projecting an FID by the year end. And just to give you more visibility on the activity, the engineering work is almost completed.
Speaker #16: The main all the major EPC tender are progressing. And we are estimating to complete by Q2. The majority of those. And in early Q3, the remaining and in parallel, a significant progress has been made also in LNG and NGL marketing as well as on project financing.
Guido Brusco: It has proven in the last five years that two major providers of energy, Russia and Middle East, for both oil and gas, have failed to deliver, or has proven that they could fail to deliver, and diversification in other geographies like Far East and South America, or America in general, and Africa is very welcomed now in the strategy. As Eni, we are very well positioned in these three geographies. We had a very limited exposure to Russia. We have, as I said before, limited exposure to the Middle East. If you look at the portfolio in the long term, which we presented also at our last CMD, the Americas, Africa, and Far East will play a larger role in our portfolio.
Guido Brusco: It has proven in the last five years that two major providers of energy, Russia and Middle East, for both oil and gas, have failed to deliver, or has proven that they could fail to deliver, and diversification in other geographies like Far East and South America, or America in general, and Africa is very welcomed now in the strategy. As Eni, we are very well positioned in these three geographies. We had a very limited exposure to Russia. We have, as I said before, limited exposure to the Middle East. If you look at the portfolio in the long term, which we presented also at our last CMD, the Americas, Africa, and Far East will play a larger role in our portfolio.
Speaker #16: So definitely, we are setting up ourselves and our partner and all the stakeholders in Argentina to for an FID by the year end.
Uh, provides fiscal term to, uh, produce a stranded resources. Of course, there is a, there is a price element, uh, which which plays a significant role, but, uh, many, uh, many government are, uh, are trying to introduce enablers to, to make it to make it possible. The focus is on energy security. Of course, most of them are trying to maximize the domestic. Uh, the domestic production on the government side, on the international oil company, uh, side of course, uh, diversification is, uh, is uh, is another pillar of the, of the strategy. Uh, it has it has proven in the last, in the last 5 years, that 2 major, uh, provider of energy Russia and, uh, and uh, Middle East for both oil and gas, uh, have failed to, uh, or has proven that they, they, they could fail to deliver. And, uh,
Speaker #15: Terrific. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Martin. And to be clear, it's probably more of a function of a long list of projects that we can't fit in every quarter.
Now in the in the strategy as you and I we are very well positioned in these 3 in these 3 geographies. We are the
Speaker #15: Excellent. Yes.
Speaker #7: Yes.
Speaker #3: So moving on. Thanks, Martin. Moving on. We've got Matt Lofting at JPMorgan. Matt, have you got some questions?
Speaker #17: Yes. Thanks, John. Hi, everybody. Two, please. First, it struck me looking at the revised cash flow guidance for 2026 that if we annualize Q1, the new fully year targets look comfortably above that.
Very limited exposure to Russia. We have, as I said before, limited exposure to the Middle East. And if you look at the portfolio in the long term, which, uh, we presented also at our last CMU, the Americas, uh, Africa, and Forest will play a larger, a larger role in our portfolio.
John Rigby: Thanks, Guido. We're now going to move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin.
John Rigby: Thanks, Guido. We're now going to move to Martijn Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin.
Speaker #17: I imagine there's probably some price lagging effects in oil and gas that impacted the numbers in Q1, particularly given prices rallied sharply in March.
Martijn Rats: Yeah. Thanks, John. I've got two. First of all, I just thought I'll ask you a broad question about demand destruction. It clearly is a topic with a broad range of views of whether there is and how much oil and gas demand might have been destroyed as a result of these high prices. I was wondering if you could share a perspective, and to be clear, the nature of the question goes just beyond jet fuel, which is separate topic. It's in its own right. What do you think is the amount of oil demand that has been destroyed, as a result of these very high prices? The second thing I wanted to ask you is about the Argentina LNG FID. I noticed there wasn't a mention any more of it in the Q1 statement.
Martijn Rats: Yeah. Thanks, John. I've got two. First of all, I just thought I'll ask you a broad question about demand destruction. It clearly is a topic with a broad range of views of whether there is and how much oil and gas demand might have been destroyed as a result of these high prices. I was wondering if you could share a perspective, and to be clear, the nature of the question goes just beyond jet fuel, which is separate topic. It's in its own right. What do you think is the amount of oil demand that has been destroyed, as a result of these very high prices?
Thanks, Guido. We're now going to move to Martin Rats at Morgan Stanley. Martin?
Speaker #17: I wondered if you could sort of share that the price lagging impact and how that might come through. And then secondly, obviously, unusual in many respects to raised distributions and the buyback.
Speaker #17: So early in the year. Obviously, it's an unusual macro situation that we're in in that context as well. But in the past, you've talked about effectively a sort of a hard floor and a sort of a soft ceiling.
Thanks John. Um, I've got you. Um, first of all, I just thought, I'll ask you a broad question about demand destruction. Um, it clearly is a topic, um, with and with the broad range of views of of whether there is and how much, um, well oil oil and gas demand might have been destroyed as a result of these high prices, but I I was wondering if you, um, could share our perspective. Um, and to be clear, the nature of the question goes just beyond
Speaker #17: To buyback revisions, does that still apply for 2026 against the 2.8 baseline? Thank you.
Martijn Rats: The second thing I wanted to ask you is about the Argentina LNG FID. I noticed there wasn't a mention any more of it in the Q1 statement that should still be on the schedule for later this year, no? I just wanted to confirm that.
Speaker #7: Yes. About the cash flow from operation results and the fact is clearly the as a consequence, you know that in the first quarter, as we mentioned, there were and then downs in some maintenance.
Martijn Rats: that should still be on the schedule for later this year, no? I just wanted to confirm that.
Uh, jet fuel, which is a sort of separate topic. It's in its own, right? But what do you think is the amount of oil demand that that has been destroyed? Um, as a result of these of, um, of these very high prices. Um, and this the second thing I wanted to ask, you is about the, um, Argentina LNG FID. Um, I noticed there wasn't to mention any more of it in the, the, the 1 Cube sort of um, statement. But that
Speaker #7: So we are not able to capture certain results. Also from the point of view of GDP, there were some benefit that we were able to capture partially, but just in the last month of the quarter.
Should still be on the schedule for later this year? No, I just wanted to confirm that.
Francesco Gattei: About demand destruction. I think that thinking about demand destruction as a matter of one and a half months is too early. I think the demand is there. Clearly, there is potentially some small reduction that potential buyers do not afford, but demand destruction is generally happening in a certain time frame. For the time being, you see that there is no demand destruction. There is supply destruction. There is storage use, and there is some kind of switch wherever it is possible to switch, eventually in certain coal-to-gas plants. I haven't seen a real material destruction in terms of demand from the data that we can collect. About the Argentina LNG, I will leave it to Guido for completing the-
Francesco Gattei: About demand destruction. I think that thinking about demand destruction as a matter of one and a half months is too early. I think the demand is there. Clearly, there is potentially some small reduction that potential buyers do not afford, but demand destruction is generally happening in a certain time frame. For the time being, you see that there is no demand destruction. There is supply destruction. There is storage use, and there is some kind of switch wherever it is possible to switch, eventually in certain coal-to-gas plants. I haven't seen a real material destruction in terms of demand from the data that we can collect. About the Argentina LNG, I will leave it to Guido for completing the-
I think that.
Speaker #7: There is a ramp-up of production in EMP, the two improved fourth benefit along the year. And on the other side, you have to consider that there is distribution from associates that follow in certain cases quarterly, but in other cases, there are half-year or yearly distribution.
It's too early. So I think that the man is there.
Clearly, there is a potentially, some small, uh, reduction that, uh, potential buyers that do not, uh, afford, but demand, that destruction is generally happening.
In a certain time frame. So,
Speaker #7: So there are various elements that will determine different distribution in the next three quarters versus what we had in the first quarter. The other question was yeah, the unusual distribution is because we had a policy, and we applied the policy.
For the timing, you see that there is no demand destruction; there is supply destruction, there is storage.
Speaker #7: I think that I do expect that this distribution will become potentially even more unusual in the coming quarters. If the market persists.
And there is some kind of switch, wherever it is possible to switch eventually, in certain cold gas plants. But I even—I haven't seen a real material destruction in terms of the one from the data that we can collect.
Guido Brusco: On Argentina LNG, we are still projecting an FID by the year-end. Just to give you more visibility on the activity, the engineering work is almost completed. All the major EPC tenders are progressing. We are estimating to complete by Q2 the majority of those, and in early Q3, the remaining. In parallel, significant progress has been made also in LNG and NGL marketing, as well as on project financing. Definitely we are setting up ourselves, our partner, and all the stakeholders in Argentina for an FID by the year end.
Guido Brusco: On Argentina LNG, we are still projecting an FID by the year-end. Just to give you more visibility on the activity, the engineering work is almost completed. All the major EPC tenders are progressing. We are estimating to complete by Q2 the majority of those, and in early Q3, the remaining. In parallel, significant progress has been made also in LNG and NGL marketing, as well as on project financing. Definitely we are setting up ourselves, our partner, and all the stakeholders in Argentina for an FID by the year end.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Matt. We're going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita. Massimo?
Speaker #18: Thank you, John. Good afternoon to questions. One on the discovery in Indonesia, regarding the SERA JV with Petronas. In light of the significant discovery in Indonesia, can you clarify whether the terms of the agreement already incorporated the option of the additional resource upside you just discovered ahead of the closing?
About the Argentina energy, I live to Guido for the one in Argentina. LG, we are still projecting an FID by the year end. And just to give you more visibility on the activity, the engineering work is almost completed. The main, all the major EPC tender are progressing, and we...
Speaker #18: And the second on the sensitivity table, given the recent increase in volatility in physical commodity markets with widening differential across crude qualities and geographies, do you believe the sensitivities you provided on benchmark prices are still fully representative, or should we expect some divergence between benchmark movements and your realized profitability in the current environment?
Uh, we are estimating to complete by Q2, uh, the majority of those, and, uh, in early Q3, uh, the remaining. Uh, and in parallel, significant progress has been made also in LNG and NGL marketing, uh, as well as on, on, on project financing. So definitely we are, uh, we're setting up ourselves and our partner and, uh, all the stakeholders in Argentina to, for an FID by the end.
Martijn Rats: Terrific. Thank you.
Martijn Rats: Terrific. Thank you.
John Rigby: Thanks, Martin. To be clear, it's probably more of a function of a long list of projects that we can't fit in every quarter.
John Rigby: Thanks, Martin. To be clear, it's probably more of a function of a long list of projects that we can't fit in every quarter.
Martijn Rats: Excellent. Yes.
Martijn Rats: Excellent. Yes.
John Rigby: Yes. Moving on. Thanks, Martin. Moving on, we've got Matthew Lofting at JPMorgan. Matt, have you got some questions?
John Rigby: Yes. Moving on. Thanks, Martin. Moving on, we've got Matthew Lofting at JPMorgan. Matt, have you got some questions?
Speaker #18: Thank you.
Terrific. Thank you. Thanks, Martin. And to be clear, it's probably more of a function of a long list of projects that we can't fit in every quarter. Um, excellent. Yes, yes. So, moving on. Thanks, Martin. Moving on, we've got Matt Lofting at JP Morgan. Matt, have you got some questions?
Matthew Lofting: Yes. Thanks, John. Hi, everybody. Two please. First, it struck me looking at the revised cash flow guidance for 2026, that if we annualize Q1, the new full year targets look comfortably above that. I imagine there's probably some price lagging effects in oil and gas that impacted the numbers in Q1, particularly given prices rallied sharply in March. I wondered if you could sort of share the price lagging impact and how that might come through. Then secondly, obviously unusual in many respects to raise distributions and the buyback so much so early in the year. Obviously, it's an unusual macro situation that we're in in that context as well. In the past, you've talked about, effectively a sort of a hard floor and a sort of a soft ceiling to buyback revisions. Does that still apply for 2026 against the 2.8 baseline? Thank you.
Matt Lofting: Yes. Thanks, John. Hi, everybody. Two please. First, it struck me looking at the revised cash flow guidance for 2026, that if we annualize Q1, the new full year targets look comfortably above that. I imagine there's probably some price lagging effects in oil and gas that impacted the numbers in Q1, particularly given prices rallied sharply in March. I wondered if you could sort of share the price lagging impact and how that might come through. Then secondly, obviously unusual in many respects to raise distributions and the buyback so much so early in the year. Obviously, it's an unusual macro situation that we're in in that context as well. In the past, you've talked about, effectively a sort of a hard floor and a sort of a soft ceiling to buyback revisions. Does that still apply for 2026 against the 2.8 baseline? Thank you.
Speaker #7: On the sensitivity, then I will leave to Guido for the question about Indonesia. On the sensitivity, we gave you remember that we are let's say applied assuming a broader volatility range.
Speaker #7: So where different than the usual sensitivity that we fixed on a shorter size fluctuation. Clearly, a volatility and sorry, a sensitivity is just a theoretical number.
Speaker #7: We do not capture all the arbitrage, also because the arbitrage cannot be modeled because we don't know where this potential gap and the effect that on the physical barrel bottleneck that could emerge so you keep it as a key reference, but it's clear that it will be some specific spot situation where the sensitivity is not applied.
Yes um thanks John hi everybody. Uh 2 please. Um, first it struck me. Looking at the revised cash flow guidance for 2026 that if we annualize q1 um the new full year targets, look comfortably about that. Um, I imagine there's probably some price lagging effects in in oil and gas that impacted the numbers in q1 particularly given prices rallied sharply in March, I wondered, if you could to share that the price lagging impact and and how that might come through and then secondly, um, obviously unusual in many respects to raise distributions and the BuyBacks. So so, so much so
So early in the year, obviously, it is an unusual macro situation that we're in, in that context as well. In the past, you've talked about—
Speaker #7: But the sensitivity is applied also on 1.7 million barrel per day of production. So that effect is already in a certain way diluting any specific case.
Effectively, a sort of hard floor and a sort of soft ceiling, um, to buy back. Revisions—does that still apply for 2026 against the $2.8 billion baseline? Thank you.
Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the cash flow from operations results, the fact is clearly as a consequence, you know that in Q1, as we mentioned, there were some maintenance downs. We were not able to capture certain results. Also from the point of view of GGP, there were some benefit that we were able to capture partially, but just for the last month of the quarter. There is a ramp-up of production in E&P that will improve further benefit along the year. On the other side, you have to consider that there is distribution from associates that follow, in certain case, quarterly, but in other cases are half-year or yearly distribution. There are various element that will determine a different distribution in the next quarter versus what we had in Q1. The other question was. Yeah.
Francesco Gattei: Yes. About the cash flow from operations results, the fact is clearly as a consequence, you know that in Q1, as we mentioned, there were some maintenance downs. We were not able to capture certain results. Also from the point of view of GGP, there were some benefit that we were able to capture partially, but just for the last month of the quarter. There is a ramp-up of production in E&P that will improve further benefit along the year. On the other side, you have to consider that there is distribution from associates that follow, in certain case, quarterly, but in other cases are half-year or yearly distribution. There are various element that will determine a different distribution in the next quarter versus what we had in Q1. The other question was. Yeah.
Speaker #7: I leave that to Guido.
Speaker #19: Quick, clearly.
Speaker #20: There are adjustments on the free cash flow working capital, but there are also adjustments on the new resources discovered in the interim period and beyond the interim period.
Yes, about the cash flow from operation results. And the fact is, clearly, as a cost where, you know, that in the first quarter, we mentioned that there were
Speaker #20: So there are mechanisms in the agreement to readjust value accordingly.
Speaker #7: Very clear. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Massimo. We're going to move to Thurgood Sneeve at Rothschild. Thurgood?
Speaker #21: Yeah. Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my question. There's been a flurry of exploration success at the start of this year, and the billion BOE of resources discovered is very impressive.
Speaker #21: I just wanted to know whether there was any color you could give on further wells being drilled this year that we might be looking out for.
Speaker #21: And if there are any others you're particularly excited about. And then secondly, it was positive to see the chemicals result improve sequentially this quarter.
So, the results also from the point of view of ggp, there were some benefit that we were able to capture partially, but just the last month of the quarter, there is a ramp up production in, in EMP, that will improve for benefit along along the year. And on the other side, you have to consider that, uh, there is distribution from, uh, from Associates that follow, in certain case quarterly, but in other case there are half year or yearly distribution. So, there are various elements that will will uh, uh, determine a different uh, uh, distribution in the next 3 quarter versus what we had in the first quarter. The other question was
Francesco Gattei: The unusual distribution is because we had the policy, and we applied the policy. I think that I do expect that this issue will become potentially even more unusual in the coming quarters if the market persist.
Francesco Gattei: The unusual distribution is because we had the policy, and we applied the policy. I think that I do expect that this issue will become potentially even more unusual in the coming quarters if the market persist.
Speaker #21: How should we think about this improvement in terms of the contribution from the Versalis restructuring and then also the scenario in the quarter? And looking forward to Q2, do we expect the business to be able to capture any improved margins should they materialize?
Yeah, the unusual distribution is because, uh, we had the policy and we apply the policy. I think that, uh, I do expect that this will show—will become potentially even more unusual in the coming quarters if the market persists.
John Rigby: Thanks, Matt. We're going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita. Massimo?
John Rigby: Thanks, Matt. We're going to move to Massimo Bonisoli at Equita. Massimo?
Speaker #21: Thanks.
Massimo Bonisoli: Thank you, John. Good afternoon. Two questions. One on the discovery in Indonesia regarding the Serat JV with Petronas. In light of the significant discovery in Indonesia, can you clarify whether the terms of the agreement already incorporated the option of the additional resource upside you just discovered ahead of the closing? The second on the sensitivity table, given the recent increase in volatility in physical commodity markets with widening differential across group qualities and geographies, do you believe the sensitivities you provided on benchmark prices are still fully representative, or should we expect some divergence between benchmark movements and your realized profitability in the current environment? Thank you.
Massimo Bonisoli: Thank you, John. Good afternoon. Two questions. One on the discovery in Indonesia regarding the Serat JV with Petronas. In light of the significant discovery in Indonesia, can you clarify whether the terms of the agreement already incorporated the option of the additional resource upside you just discovered ahead of the closing? The second on the sensitivity table, given the recent increase in volatility in physical commodity markets with widening differential across group qualities and geographies, do you believe the sensitivities you provided on benchmark prices are still fully representative, or should we expect some divergence between benchmark movements and your realized profitability in the current environment? Thank you.
Speaker #22: I leave then to Aldo Napolitano for the exploration and Adriano Alfani back for Versalis.
Thanks, Matt. Um, we're going to move to, uh, maximum bonus solely at Equita. Maximo.
Speaker #23: Yes. In terms of program expression, program for the rest of the year, of course, we had a program this year that was really front-loaded.
Speaker #23: So many of the high-impact wells have been drilled. And so in four months, we have so we had the sequence of results that you mentioned.
Thank you, John. Good afternoon. Two questions: First, on the discovery in Indonesia regarding the Sarah JV with Petronas— in light of the significant discovery in Indonesia, can you clarify whether the terms of the agreement already incorporate the option of the additional resources?
Subside. You just discovered ahead of the closing.
Speaker #23: However, we still have some interesting wells to drill during the year. Again, in Indonesia, so in the Kutai Basin. So we plan to drill another well.
Speaker #23: Another interesting prospect. And we will have a couple of wells in Egypt, and the well in Ghana. So this will complete so the wells at least with a certain materiality.
Francesco Gattei: On the sensitivity, I will leave to Guido for the question about Indonesia. On the sensitivity, you remember that we're, let's say, applied assuming a broader volatility range. We're different than the usual sensitivity that we fixed on a shorter size fluctuation. Clearly, a sensitivity is just a theoretical number. We do not capture all the arbitrage also because the arbitrage cannot be modeled, because we don't know where this potential gap and the effect that on the physical bottleneck that could emerge. You keep it as a key reference, but it's clear there will be some specific spot situation where the sensitivity is not applied. The sensitivity is applied also on 1.7 million barrel per day of production. That effect is already, in a certain way, diluting any specific case. I leave that to Guido.
Francesco Gattei: On the sensitivity, I will leave to Guido for the question about Indonesia. On the sensitivity, you remember that we're, let's say, applied assuming a broader volatility range. We're different than the usual sensitivity that we fixed on a shorter size fluctuation. Clearly, a sensitivity is just a theoretical number. We do not capture all the arbitrage also because the arbitrage cannot be modeled, because we don't know where this potential gap and the effect that on the physical bottleneck that could emerge. You keep it as a key reference, but it's clear there will be some specific spot situation where the sensitivity is not applied. The sensitivity is applied also on 1.7 million barrel per day of production. That effect is already, in a certain way, diluting any specific case. I leave that to Guido.
Speaker #23: There's a large part of our exploration portfolio anyway that is interested by drilling for near-field ILX drilling, so contributing to production in very short term.
Speaker #23: But in those cases with more limited reserves.
Speaker #24: So on the chemical side, if we look back to the Q1, the transformation is a positive impact of roughly 100 million. Although we are facing a negative scenario because in the first quarter, clearly, there was a sort of time lag between what Francesco was talking about before, the effect on the demand versus the effect negative of supply, because we had higher costs in terms of fee stock, higher costs in terms of utilities.
And uh, the second on the sensitivity table, given the recent increase in volatility in physical commodity markets with widening, differential across group, qualities and geographies. You believe the sensitivities you provided on bench prices are still fully representative, or should we expect some Divergence between Benchmark movements and your realized profitability in the current debt? Thank you back on the sensitivity, then I will leave to Widow for the, for the, uh, for the question about Indonesia, uh, on on the sensitivity sensitivity. We gave you, you remember that? We are, uh, let's see, applied assuming a broader volatility range. So, we're different than the usual sensitivity that we fixed on a, on a shorter, shorter size. Uh, fruition.
Speaker #24: So at the end, the positive impact quarter on quarter, pro forma level is a little less than 100 because for the effect of the negative scenario, roughly 85 million.
Speaker #24: If we go in the second quarter, we are putting in place a significant action in addition to further reduced costs and to continue the transformation plan.
Clearly a volatility and sorry. A sensitivity is just a theoretical number. We do not capture all the Arbitrage also, because the Arbitrage cannot be modeled because we don't know where this, uh, potential Gap, and the effect that on the physical on the physical, but Barrel bottleneck, that could emerge. So you keep it as a key reference, but it's clear that will be some specific spot situation where the sensitivity is not applied, but the sensitivity is applied. Also on 1.7 million.
So that effect is already in a certain way, diluting any specific case. I leave them to Widow.
Speaker #24: And we expect the second quarter significantly better than the Q1. Also catching some shortage that we see on the polymer market. Despite still the high costs in terms of feedstock and utilities.
Guido Brusco: Can you hear me?
Guido Brusco: Can you hear me?
Guido Brusco: There are adjustments on the free cash flow working capital, but there are also adjustments on the new resources discovered in the interim period and beyond the interim period. There are mechanisms in the agreement to readjust value accordingly.
Guido Brusco: There are adjustments on the free cash flow working capital, but there are also adjustments on the new resources discovered in the interim period and beyond the interim period. There are mechanisms in the agreement to readjust value accordingly.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Adriano. We're going to now move to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark?
Speaker #25: Okay. Thank you. My first question is you say how you can on a commitment to customers, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, etc., totally understandable. And just does that flag the idea that margins can be squeezed given feedstock prices?
There, there are, there are adjustments on the on the, on the free cash flow working capital, but there are also adjustments on the new resources, discovered, in the interim period and Beyond the interim, period. So, there are mechanism in the agreement to readjust value accordingly.
Massimo Bonisoli: Very clear. Thank you.
Massimo Bonisoli: Very clear. Thank you.
Very clear. Thank you.
John Rigby: Thanks, Massimo. We're going to move to Fergus Lea at Rothschild. Fergus?
John Rigby: Thanks, Massimo. We're going to move to Fergus Lea at Rothschild. Fergus?
Thanks, Mr. Mo. We're going to move to Focus. Any Rothschild? Focus.
Fergus Lea: Yeah. Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my question. There's been a flurry of exploration success at the start of this year, and the 1 billion BOE of resources discovered is very impressive. I just wanted to know whether there was any color you could give on further wells being drilled this year that we might be looking out for, and if there are any others you're particularly excited about. Secondly, it was positive to see the chemicals result improve sequentially this quarter. How should we think about this improvement in terms of the contribution from the Versalis restructuring? The scenario in the quarter and looking forward to Q2, do we expect the business to be able to capture any improved margins should they materialize? Thanks.
Fergus Neve: Yeah. Hi, everyone. Thank you very much for taking my question. There's been a flurry of exploration success at the start of this year, and the 1 billion BOE of resources discovered is very impressive. I just wanted to know whether there was any color you could give on further wells being drilled this year that we might be looking out for, and if there are any others you're particularly excited about. Secondly, it was positive to see the chemicals result improve sequentially this quarter. How should we think about this improvement in terms of the contribution from the Versalis restructuring? The scenario in the quarter and looking forward to Q2, do we expect the business to be able to capture any improved margins should they materialize? Thanks.
Yeah, hi everyone. Thank you very much for taking my question.
Speaker #25: That's the first question. And then the second one, more general, yes, yet more exploration success, deep water, talking about additional developments as well. You've commented previously, Claudio, on the service market and how there could potentially be tightness.
Speaker #25: We're seeing service providers talk about renewed developments. So how would you see tightness in that contracting market and any particular services you feel may be under pressure given developments that we're looking at?
Speaker #25: Thank you.
Speaker #22: Yeah. About the first question on the margin potential risk of margin squeeze, this is for us is a relatively risk because substantially, we are in our chain of supply, we can enable to cover most of the products that we are delivering to our customers.
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Aldo Napolitano for the exploration and Adriano Alfani back for Versalis.
Francesco Gattei: I leave to Aldo Napolitano for the exploration and Adriano Alfani back for Versalis.
Uh, there’s been a flurry of, um, exploration success at the start of this year and the billion BOE of resources discovered is very impressive. I just wanted to know whether there was any color you could give on further wells being drilled this year that we might be, uh, looking out for, um, and if there are any others you’re particularly excited about. Um, and then secondly, um, it was positive to see the chemicals result improved sequentially this quarter. Um, how should we think about this improvement in terms of the contribution from the Versalis restructuring? Um, and then also the scenario in the quarter and looking forward to Q2—um, to expect the business to be able to capture any improved margins should they materialize? Thanks. Uh, I’ll leave it then to...
Aldo Napolitano: Yes. In terms of exploration program for the rest of the year, of course, we had a program this year that was really front-loaded, so
Aldo Napolitano: Yes. In terms of exploration program for the rest of the year, of course, we had a program this year that was really front-loaded, so
For the expiration and back for Versailles.
Speaker #22: So from our point of view, we are not in a situation where we have to rely too much on the cargo market. There could be some volumes related specifically on jet fuel, but this is a marginal amount.
Aldo Napolitano: Many of the high impact wells have been drilled. In four months we had the sequence of results that you mentioned. However, we still have some interesting wells to drill during the year, again, in Indonesia, so in the Kutei Basin. We plan to drill another well, another interesting prospect. We will have a couple of wells in Egypt and a well in Ghana. This will complete the wells, at least with a certain materiality. There's a large part of our exploration portfolio anyway that is interested by drilling for near field ILX drilling, so contributing to production in very short term. In those cases, with more limited reserves.
Aldo Napolitano: Many of the high impact wells have been drilled. In four months we had the sequence of results that you mentioned. However, we still have some interesting wells to drill during the year, again, in Indonesia, so in the Kutei Basin. We plan to drill another well, another interesting prospect. We will have a couple of wells in Egypt and a well in Ghana. This will complete the wells, at least with a certain materiality. There's a large part of our exploration portfolio anyway that is interested by drilling for near field ILX drilling, so contributing to production in very short term. In those cases, with more limited reserves.
Speaker #22: So for this reason, we do take the commitment that this is a commitment that is clearly related to our integrated value along the chain.
Speaker #22: About the contractual services in the oil market, I leave to Guido.
Yes, that's that. That you mentioned. However, we still have some interesting wells to drill during the year, again in Indonesia, so in the Chi Basin. So, we plan to drill another well.
Another interesting prospect. And we will have a couple of wells in, uh, in Egypt and a well in Ghana.
Speaker #26: Sorry, I have to restart again. So I was talking with the microphone off. So there are two elements of that are driving costs at the moment.
Speaker #26: One is in the driving the short-term cost inflation and this is mainly driven by the conflict in the Middle East and, of course, across the whole oil and gas value chain, higher energy prices, logistics, insurance, commodity costs are increasing.
Uh, so this, uh, this will complete, uh, so the wells at least with a certain materiality. Uh, there's a large part of our exploration portfolio, in a way, that is interested by drilling for near-field, ILX drilling. So, contributing to production in very short term, but in those cases with more limited reserves.
Adriano Alfani: On the chemical side, if we look back to the Q1, the transformation is a positive impact of roughly +EUR 100 million. Although we are facing a negative scenario because in Q1, clearly there was a sort of time lag between what Francesco was talking about before, the effect on demand versus the negative effect of supply, because we had higher costs in terms of feedstock, higher costs in terms of utilities. At the end, the positive impact quarter-on-quarter pro forma level is a little less than 100 because of the effect of negative scenario, roughly -EUR 85 million. If we go in Q2, we are putting in place a significant action in addition to further reduce costs and to continue the transformation plan.
Adriano Alfani: On the chemical side, if we look back to the Q1, the transformation is a positive impact of roughly +EUR 100 million. Although we are facing a negative scenario because in Q1, clearly there was a sort of time lag between what Francesco was talking about before, the effect on demand versus the negative effect of supply, because we had higher costs in terms of feedstock, higher costs in terms of utilities. At the end, the positive impact quarter-on-quarter pro forma level is a little less than 100 because of the effect of negative scenario, roughly -EUR 85 million. If we go in Q2, we are putting in place a significant action in addition to further reduce costs and to continue the transformation plan.
Speaker #26: And these are bringing almost immediate cost inflection. But for one moment, let's imagine that this cost pressure will be shortly fixed assuming that the cost pressure on the short term will disappear.
So on the chemical side, if we look back to Q1, the transformation has a positive impact of roughly $100 million.
Speaker #26: There are, of course, longer-term drivers of cost pressure and increase a general increase in the activity in the upstream and with notice that basically I mean, if you look at the inflation trends from '22 to '23, '23, '24, up to '25, we already had a 15% cost increase in I mean, starting from the 2022.
Although we are facing a negative scenario because in the first quarter, clearly there was a sort of time lag between the world Francesco was talking about before and the effect on the demand versus the fact. Negative was supply because we had higher costs in terms of Fisto, higher costs in terms of, in terms of materialities. So at the end, the positive impact quarter on quarter, performance level is a little less than 100, because then for the effect of negative scenario, roughly €85 million. If we go in the second quarter,
Adriano Alfani: We expect Q2 significantly better than Q1, also catching some shortage that we see on the polymer market, despite still the high cost in terms of feedstock and utilities.
Adriano Alfani: We expect Q2 significantly better than Q1, also catching some shortage that we see on the polymer market, despite still the high cost in terms of feedstock and utilities.
John Rigby: Thank you, gentlemen. We're going to now move to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark?
John Rigby: Thank you, gentlemen. We're going to now move to Mark Wilson at Jefferies. Mark?
We are put in place as a collection in addition to further reduced costs, and to continue the transformation plan. And we expect the second quarter significantly better than Q1. Also catching some shortage that we see on the polymer market, despite still the high cost. So, in terms of the feedstock and utilities,
Speaker #26: And the pre-war 2026 and coming here, we were in the region of the 3 to 4 percent of cost increase but if you add up this short-term which I was mentioning before, the range would expand from 4 to 7 percent.
Thank you. We're going to now move to Mark Wilson at Jeffries. Mark.
Mark Wilson: Okay, thank you. My first question is, you say how you can honor commitments to customers, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, et cetera, totally understandable. Just, does that flag the idea that margins can be squeezed given feedstock prices? That's the first question. Then the second one, more general. Yes, yet more exploration success, deep water, talking about additional developments as well. You commented previously, Claudio, on the service market, and how there could potentially be tightness. We're seeing service providers talk about renewed developments. So how would you see tightness in that contractor market and any particular services you feel may be under pressure given developments that we're looking at? Thank you.
Mark Wilson: Okay, thank you. My first question is, you say how you can honor commitments to customers, gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, et cetera, totally understandable. Just, does that flag the idea that margins can be squeezed given feedstock prices? That's the first question. Then the second one, more general. Yes, yet more exploration success, deep water, talking about additional developments as well. You commented previously, Claudio, on the service market, and how there could potentially be tightness. We're seeing service providers talk about renewed developments. So how would you see tightness in that contractor market and any particular services you feel may be under pressure given developments that we're looking at? Thank you.
Okay, thank you. Um, my first question is you, you say how you can on a commitment to customers gasoline, jet fuel, diesel Etc, totally understandable. And just
Speaker #26: Of course, this is the average. There are costs which are in the long term more under pressure like the vessel installation for the deep water activity.
Speaker #26: And others which are less under pressure like the onshore drilling rig but this is the general overview that we see in the market. And that is backed up also by sources like IHS, UCCI index.
Speaker #3: Good stuff. Thanks, Guido. Thanks, Mark. We're going to move now to Chris Coupland at Bank of America. Chris?
Francesco Gattei: Yeah. About the first question on the margin, potential risk on margin squeeze, this is for us, is a relative risk because substantially we are in our supply chain, we can able to cover most of the products that we are delivering to our customers. From our point of view, we are not in a situation where we have to rely too much on the cargo market. There could be some volumes related specifically on jet fuel, but this is a marginal amount. For this reason, we do take the commitment. This is a commitment that is clearly related to our integrated value chain. About the contractor services in the oil market, I leave to Guido.
Francesco Gattei: Yeah. About the first question on the margin, potential risk on margin squeeze, this is for us, is a relative risk because substantially we are in our supply chain, we can able to cover most of the products that we are delivering to our customers. From our point of view, we are not in a situation where we have to rely too much on the cargo market. There could be some volumes related specifically on jet fuel, but this is a marginal amount. For this reason, we do take the commitment. This is a commitment that is clearly related to our integrated value chain. About the contractor services in the oil market, I leave to Guido.
Does that flag the idea that margins can be squeezed? Given feed stock prices? That's the first question and then the second 1, more General. Yes. Uh, yet more exploration success, deep water talking about additional developments as well. You commented previously Claudio on the the service market and how their there could potentially be tightness. We're seeing service providers talk about renewed developments. So, how would you see tightness in that contractor market? And any particular Services, you feel may be under pressure given developments that we're looking at. Thank you.
Speaker #27: Thank you very much. Hope you can hear me okay. Just two quick detailed questions to follow up on. I wonder whether you can talk to us about those exploration box blocks that have ended up with BP?
yeah, about the
Speaker #27: Was there a consideration whether to do this with Azul? I'm talking about Namibia, sorry. And maybe you can tell us why not with Azul?
Speaker #27: And second, even smaller detail, I just wonder whether between your CMD and now, you've changed your expectations regarding receiving dividends from ADNOC refining? Thank you.
Uh, about the first question on the margin potential risk of margin squeeze. This is, uh, for us, a relative risk, because actually we are, uh, in our chain of supply, we can able to cover most of the products that we are delivering to our customers. So from our point of view, we are not in a situation where we are to rely too much on the, on the, on the cargo market. There could be some volumes already, specifically on just full.
But this is a marginal amount. So, for this reason, we do—
Take the commitment.
Speaker #22: I leave the answer to Aldo for the block in Namibia and then on Aldo, I will reply later.
This is a commitment that is clearly related to our integrated value along the chain.
Speaker #3: Sophie, if I understood correctly, so you're talking about the blocks that BP has the new blocks that BP has taken in Namibia. So these are real exploration blocks in frontier areas.
About the contractual services. In the whole oil market, I leave to Guido.
Speaker #3: So for the time being, it's an initiative of BP. So we are of course talking each other but they are not part of the Azul energy activity.
Guido Brusco: Sorry, I have to restart again. I was talking with the microphone off. There are two elements that are driving cost at the moment. One is driving the short-term cost inflation, and this is mainly driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Of course, across the whole oil and gas value chain, higher energy prices, logistics, insurance, and commodity costs are increasing, and these are bringing almost immediate cost inflation. For one moment, let's imagine that this cost pressure will be shortly fixed, assuming that this cost pressure on the short term will disappear.
Guido Brusco: Sorry, I have to restart again. I was talking with the microphone off. There are two elements that are driving cost at the moment. One is driving the short-term cost inflation, and this is mainly driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Of course, across the whole oil and gas value chain, higher energy prices, logistics, insurance, and commodity costs are increasing, and these are bringing almost immediate cost inflation. For one moment, let's imagine that this cost pressure will be shortly fixed, assuming that this cost pressure on the short term will disappear.
Sorry, sorry. Um, I—I have to restart again. So,
Speaker #26: About the ADNOC refining, you have to consider that dividend is based on two activities. One is one of refining the crudes. The other is related to trading.
Speaker #26: So these two activities clearly have different perspectives under the current crisis. We do not have yet changed any assumption. It's not material in the overall amount of dividend that we receive in the year.
I was uh I was talking with the microphone of so there are 2 elements of uh that are driving cost at the moment. 1 is is in in the driving, the short-term cost inflation. And this is mainly driven by the conflict in the Middle East and of course across the whole
Speaker #26: So I will keep the assumption as it is and it's not eventually, we do believe there is a relatively edging between these two activities.
Oil and gas value chain—higher energy prices, logistics, insurance, commodity costs—are increasing, and these are bringing almost immediate cost inflection, but, uh, uh...
Speaker #3: Okay. Thanks, Chris.
Speaker #27: Sorry, the first answer was this is too much greenfield. I'm aware that you are not taking part but I just wondered why not.
Guido Brusco: There are, of course, longer term drivers of cost pressure, a general increase in the activity in the upstream, and that we've noticed that basically, if you look at the inflation trends from 2022 to 2023, 2024, up to 2025, we already had a 15% cost increase starting from the 2022 and the pre-war 2026. Coming here, we were in the region of the 3% to 4% cost increase. If you add up this short term, which I was mentioning before, the range would expand from 4% to 7%. Of course, this is the average. There are costs which are
Guido Brusco: There are, of course, longer term drivers of cost pressure, a general increase in the activity in the upstream, and that we've noticed that basically, if you look at the inflation trends from 2022 to 2023, 2024, up to 2025, we already had a 15% cost increase starting from the 2022 and the pre-war 2026. Coming here, we were in the region of the 3% to 4% cost increase. If you add up this short term, which I was mentioning before, the range would expand from 4% to 7%. Of course, this is the average. There are costs which are
Speaker #28: So as I said, it's an initiative taken by BP. So based on their geological reconstruction. And so I think the question should be made to BP.
There are, of course, um, longer, uh, term. Um,
Uh, drivers of cost pressure and an increase—a general increase—in the activity in the Upstream. Uh,
Speaker #28: Sorry.
Speaker #3: Thanks, Chris. We're going to move now to Saddam Ali at HSBC.
Speaker #29: Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, could you just remind us of the divestment proceeds you're expecting for the rest of the year?
Speaker #29: And secondly, I was wondering if there's any further updates or developments in your plans to get back into trading? Of course, a volatile price environment that we're seeing now is a perfect opportunity to capture trading profits, which appears will benefit from.
Uh, and that we we, we've noticed that basically. I mean, if you look at the, the, the inflation Trends, uh, from 22 to 23, uh, 2324 and up to 25, we already had a 15% cost increase in. I mean, starting from from the 2022 and
The and the the pre-war uh, 2026 and coming here, we were in the in the region of the 3 to 4% of of cost increase.
Speaker #29: So I was wondering if the current environment has accelerated your plans at all. Thank you.
Speaker #22: On M&A, you know that we have completed ballooning in the first quarter. And also on the other side, we have completed in the acquisition side a channel, Energia, with Plenitude.
Guido Brusco: In the long term, more under pressure, like the vessel installation for the deep water activity, and others which are less under pressure, like the onshore drilling rig. This is the general overview that we see in the market, and that is backed up also by sources like IHS, UCCI index.
Guido Brusco: In the long term, more under pressure, like the vessel installation for the deep water activity, and others which are less under pressure, like the onshore drilling rig. This is the general overview that we see in the market, and that is backed up also by sources like IHS, UCCI index.
Speaker #22: We do expect to have a fourth disposal completed in the during the year. You are the one that we announced last year. There will be further opportunity that we are valorizing.
Speaker #22: The dual expression model, some tail assets, or areas that we do not consider core. So there is activity ongoing of negotiation that are getting closer to completion.
John Rigby: Good stuff. Thanks, Guido. Thanks, Mark. We're going to move now to Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris.
John Rigby: Good stuff. Thanks, Guido. Thanks, Mark. We're going to move now to Christopher Kuplent at Bank of America. Chris.
But if you add up this short-term uh which I was mentioning before, the range would expand from 4 to 7 percent. Of course, this is the average there are costs which are in the long term more Under Pressure like the um, vessel installation for the deep water activity and others which are less Under Pressure like like the on onshore drilling rig but uh, this is the, the general, uh, overview that we see in the in the market and that is backed up. Also by sources like uh 8 IH, uh yuichi index.
Speaker #22: And we do expect eventually to disclose later on. So remain, as we said before, quite material this year. On top of that, you should include the deconsolidation of Plenitude as an opportunity.
Good stuff. Thanks, buddy. Thanks, Mark. We're going to move now to Chris Coupland at Bank of America. Chris.
Christopher Kuplent: Thank you very much. Hope you can hear me okay. Just two quick detailed questions to follow up on. I wonder whether you can talk to us about those exploration blocks that have ended up with BP. Was there a consideration whether to do this with Azule? I'm talking about Namibia, sorry. Maybe you can tell us why not with Azule. A second, even smaller detail, I just wonder whether between your CMD and now, you've changed your expectations regarding receiving dividends from ADNOC refining. Thank you.
Chris Kuplent: Thank you very much. Hope you can hear me okay. Just two quick detailed questions to follow up on. I wonder whether you can talk to us about those exploration blocks that have ended up with BP. Was there a consideration whether to do this with Azule? I'm talking about Namibia, sorry. Maybe you can tell us why not with Azule. A second, even smaller detail, I just wonder whether between your CMD and now, you've changed your expectations regarding receiving dividends from ADNOC refining. Thank you.
Speaker #22: Clearly, Indonesia is another factor that will benefit of the partial disposal of Indonesia, referring to the 10% that will benefit not only of the scenario that is quite supportive but also of the new discovery that are emerging and the overall upside potential that is related to that basin.
Speaker #22: On the trading, I leave back to you.
Speaker #28: Yeah. Yeah. On the trading, we had a journey which started with step one was to include the trading into the overall value chain of global natural resources to try to capture all the margin.
Thank you very much. Hope you can hear me, okay? Just 2. Quick detailed questions to follow up on. I wonder whether you can talk to us about those exploration box, uh, um, um, blocks that have ended up, uh, with DP. Was there a consideration? Uh, whether to do this with Azul? Um, I'm talking about Namibia. Sorry, um, and, and um, uh, maybe you can tell us why not with Azul, um, and a second, um, even smaller detail. I just wonder whether between your CMD and now you've, um, um, uh, changed your expectations regarding receiving dividends from adnoc was signing. Thank you.
Francesco Gattei: I leave the answer to Aldo for the block in Namibia, and then on other, I will reply later.
Francesco Gattei: I leave the answer to Aldo for the block in Namibia, and then on other, I will reply later.
Speaker #28: This was the step number one. Step number two was to change the model. So do some transformation internally and turn our trading harm from a pure service provider of the different business to a marketplace where we optimized our activity in the assets, driven by the market needs.
Aldo Napolitano: If I understood correctly, so you're talking about the new blocks that BP has taken in Namibia. These are real exploration blocks in frontier areas. For the time being, it's an initiative of BP. We are, of course, talking to each other, but they are not part of the Azule Energy activity.
Aldo Napolitano: If I understood correctly, so you're talking about the new blocks that BP has taken in Namibia. These are real exploration blocks in frontier areas. For the time being, it's an initiative of BP. We are, of course, talking to each other, but they are not part of the Azule Energy activity.
I'll leave the answer to Aldo for the Block in Namibia, and then, from that point on, I will reply later.
Sophie, if I understood correctly, so you're talking about the blocks that BP has—the new blocks that BP has taken in in Namibia. So these are
Speaker #28: And then there is this third stage where we wanted to improve our soft skills in trading. We have a large base of assets. We have refineries.
Uh, real expiration blocks in, uh, in frontier areas. So, for the time being, it's an initiative of BP. So we are, of course, uh,
Talking each other but uh, they are not part of the Azul Azul energy activity.
Speaker #28: We have storage. We have physical oil. We have physical gas. We have a lot in terms of resources. And assets. And we wanted to improve our soft skills.
Francesco Gattei: About the ADNOC refining, you have to consider that the dividend is based on two activities. One is one of refining the crudes, the other is related to trading. These two activities clearly have different perspectives under the current crisis. We have not yet changed any assumption. It is not material in the overall amount of dividend that we receive in the year. I will keep the assumption as it is, and eventually we do believe there is relative hedging between these two activities.
Francesco Gattei: About the ADNOC refining, you have to consider that the dividend is based on two activities. One is one of refining the crudes, the other is related to trading. These two activities clearly have different perspectives under the current crisis. We have not yet changed any assumption. It is not material in the overall amount of dividend that we receive in the year. I will keep the assumption as it is, and eventually we do believe there is relative hedging between these two activities.
Speaker #28: So we started this engagement with other trading players. To try to combine the best of the two. The best of an oil company and the best of a trading company.
Speaker #28: And this is the objective of the third step, which is definitely forthcoming. And this scenario, of course, will accelerate it. But despite this contingent situation, we would have done in both cases.
John Rigby: Thanks, Chris.
John Rigby: Thanks, Chris.
About the ADNOC Refining, you have to consider that, uh, that dividend is based on two activities. The other is related to trading. So these two activities, clearly, are at different perspectives. Under the current crisis, we do not have yet changed any assumption. It is not material in the overall amount of dividends that we receive in the year. So I will, uh, keep the assumption as it is and is not, eventually. We do believe there is a relatively hedging between these two activities.
Christopher Kuplent: Sorry, the first answer was this was too much greenfield. I'm aware that you are not taking part, but I just wondered why not.
Chris Kuplent: Sorry, the first answer was this was too much greenfield. I'm aware that you are not taking part, but I just wondered why not.
Speaker #28: Yeah.
Speaker #3: That's good. Thanks, Saddam. We're going to move to the last question, which is from Bertrand Odi at Kepler. Bertrand?
Aldo Napolitano: As I said, it's an initiative taken by BP. Based on their geological reconstruction. I think the question should be made to BP. Sorry.
Aldo Napolitano: As I said, it's an initiative taken by BP. Based on their geological reconstruction. I think the question should be made to BP. Sorry.
Thanks, Chris. Um, sorry, the first answer was, 'this is too, too much Green Field.' I'm aware that you are not, um, taking part, but I just wondered, why not?
Speaker #29: Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have just one left. On Venezuela, you had outstanding receivables of around $2.3 billion. With an estimated realized value of $1 billion.
So as I said, it's an initiative taken by BP. So based on their uh,
Uh, geological reconstruction. And so, uh, I think the the question should be should be made to VP, sorry.
John Rigby: Thanks, Chris. We're going to move now to Saban Ali at HSBC.
John Rigby: Thanks, Chris. We're going to move now to Saban Ali at HSBC.
Speaker #29: Do you expect to recover more than the $1 billion? Because of the new carbon four sustainability agreement?
Thanks, thanks Chris. Um we're going to move now to Saturn alley at HSBC.
Saban Ali: Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, could you just remind us of the divestment proceeds you're expecting for the rest of the year? Secondly, I was wondering if there's any further updates or developments in your plans to get back into trading. Of course, a volatile price environment that we're seeing now is a perfect opportunity to capture trading profits, which your peers will benefit from. I was wondering if the current environment has accelerated your plans at all. Thank you.
Sadnan Ali: Hi there. Thanks for taking my questions. First of all, could you just remind us of the divestment proceeds you're expecting for the rest of the year? Secondly, I was wondering if there's any further updates or developments in your plans to get back into trading. Of course, a volatile price environment that we're seeing now is a perfect opportunity to capture trading profits, which your peers will benefit from. I was wondering if the current environment has accelerated your plans at all. Thank you.
Hi there, thanks for taking my questions. Uh, first of all, could you
Speaker #28: Yeah. As I said before, we just signed one agreement that the carbon four sustainable agreement to fix the future. And now with the with this new engagement and conversation, we are having on how to develop the oil assets we will fix also the past.
Remind us of the divestment proceeds you're expecting for the rest of the year. And secondly, I was wondering if there's any further updates or developments in your plans to get back into trading. Of course, the volatile price environment that we're seeing now is a perfect opportunity to capture trading profits, which your peers will benefit from. So I was wondering if the current environment has accelerated your plans at all. Thank you.
Francesco Gattei: On M&A, you know that we have completed Baleine in Q1, and also the other side, we completed in the acquisition side, Hergo Renewables with Plenitude. We do expect to have a further disposal completed during the year. The one that we announced last year. There will be further opportunity that we are valorizing. We do a special model, some tail assets or areas that we do not consider core. There is activity ongoing of negotiation that are getting closer to completion, and we do expect eventually to disclose later on. Remain, as we said before, quite material this year. On top of that, you should include the consolidation of Plenitude as an opportunity.
Francesco Gattei: On M&A, you know that we have completed Baleine in Q1, and also the other side, we completed in the acquisition side, Hergo Renewables with Plenitude. We do expect to have a further disposal completed during the year. The one that we announced last year. There will be further opportunity that we are valorizing. We do a special model, some tail assets or areas that we do not consider core. There is activity ongoing of negotiation that are getting closer to completion, and we do expect eventually to disclose later on. Remain, as we said before, quite material this year. On top of that, you should include the consolidation of Plenitude as an opportunity.
Speaker #29: And so how should we think about this $2.3 billion of outstanding receivables?
Speaker #28: There will be mechanism developed to recover this past use within the framework of the development of the oil field. Is that more clear?
Speaker #29: Yeah. Yeah. So it's not going to be within the carbon four GV but within the new oil framework?
Francesco Gattei: Clearly, Indonesia is another factor that will benefit from the partial disposal in Indonesia, referring to the 10% that will benefit from not only a scenario that is quite supportive, but also the new discoveries that are emerging, and the overall upside potential that is related to that basin. On the trading, I hand it back to you.
Francesco Gattei: Clearly, Indonesia is another factor that will benefit from the partial disposal in Indonesia, referring to the 10% that will benefit from not only a scenario that is quite supportive, but also the new discoveries that are emerging, and the overall upside potential that is related to that basin. On the trading, I hand it back to you.
Speaker #28: Or a combination or it's a very flexible. But it will be essentially more focused or centered around the oil development than.
Speaker #29: New development that will clearly give more flexibility in terms of cargo that could be used or new revenues that could emerge by production additional production.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. On the trading, we had a journey which started with step one, was to include the trading into the overall value chain of global natural resources to try to capture all the margin. This was the step number one. Step number two was to change the model, so do some transformation internally and turn our trading arm from a pure service provider of the different business to a marketplace, where we optimized our activity in the assets driven by the market needs. There is this third stage, where we wanted to improve our soft skills in trading. We have a large base of assets. We have refineries, we have storage, we have physical oil, we have physical gas. We have a lot in terms of resources and assets, and we wanted to improve our soft skills.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. On the trading, we had a journey which started with step one, was to include the trading into the overall value chain of global natural resources to try to capture all the margin. This was the step number one. Step number two was to change the model, so do some transformation internally and turn our trading arm from a pure service provider of the different business to a marketplace, where we optimized our activity in the assets driven by the market needs. There is this third stage, where we wanted to improve our soft skills in trading. We have a large base of assets. We have refineries, we have storage, we have physical oil, we have physical gas. We have a lot in terms of resources and assets, and we wanted to improve our soft skills.
Speaker #3: Think of it as an holistic solution to the whole all the challenges that we have. Thank you, Bertrand. Thank you, everybody, for joining the Q&A.
That we announced the last year, there will be further opportunity that we are valorizing. That will special models some tail assets or areas that we do not consider core. So there is activity ongoing of negotiation that are get getting closer to completion, and we do expect eventually to disclose later on. Uh, so remain, as we said before, why, why material this year, on top of that, you should include the, the consolidation of play to the, as an opportunity. Clearly Indonesia, is another factor that will benefit of the this in in the parts or disposal of Indonesia referring to the 10% that will benefit of, not only of the scenario that is quite supportive, but also of the new discoveries that are emerging and the overall upside potential, that is related to that Basin on the, on the trading. I live back. Yeah. Yeah. On on, on, on the trading. Uh, uh, uh, we, we had a journey which which started with the step 1 was to include the trading into the into the
Overall value chain of global natural resources to try to capture all the margin. This was the step number one.
Was to change the model. So do some transformation internally and turn our trading, uh, uh, harm. Uh, from a Pure service provider of the different business, to a Marketplace. Uh, where we, we've optimized our activity, uh, in the assets driven by the market, uh, by the market needs, and then
Guido Brusco: We started this engagement with other trading players to try to combine the best of the two, the best of an oil company, and the best of a trading company. This is the objective of the third step, which is definitely forthcoming. This scenario, of course, will accelerate it. Despite this contingent situation, we would have done in both cases, yeah.
Guido Brusco: We started this engagement with other trading players to try to combine the best of the two, the best of an oil company, and the best of a trading company. This is the objective of the third step, which is definitely forthcoming. This scenario, of course, will accelerate it. Despite this contingent situation, we would have done in both cases, yeah.
Then there is this third stage, where we wanted to improve our, uh, uh, soft skills. In in in trading, we, we have a large base of assets. We have refineries, we have storage, we have physical oil, we have physical gas. We have a lot in term of resources and assets and we wanted to improve our soft skills. So we started this, uh, engagement with uh, with with other uh, trading players, uh, to try to combine the best of the 2, the best of annoyed company. And the best of a, of a, of a of a trading company. And this is the, the objective of the of the third step, which are, which is definitely forthcoming. And, uh, this scenario, of course, will, uh, will will will accelerate it. But despite this, uh, uh, contingent situation, we would have done, uh, uh, in, uh, in both cases. Yeah.
John Rigby: That's Guido. Thanks, Adnan.
John Rigby: That's Guido. Thanks, Adnan.
Saban Ali: Thank you.
Sadnan Ali: Thank you.
John Rigby: Oh, we're going to move to the last question, which is from Bertrand Hodée at Kepler. Bertrand.
John Rigby: Oh, we're going to move to the last question, which is from Bertrand Hodée at Kepler. Bertrand.
Bertrand Hodée: Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have just one left. On Venezuela, you had outstanding receivables of around $2.3 billion, with an estimated realized value of $1 billion. Do you expect to recover more than the $1 billion because of the new Cardón IV sustainability agreement?
Bertrand Hodee: Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I have just one left. On Venezuela, you had outstanding receivables of around $2.3 billion, with an estimated realized value of $1 billion. Do you expect to recover more than the $1 billion because of the new Cardón IV sustainability agreement?
Thanks s. Thank you. Oh, we're going to move to the last question. Uh, which is from betron Ori a Kepler Metron.
Yes. Uh, thank you, uh, for taking my question. I have just one left, uh, on Venezuela. You had outstanding receivables of, uh, around $2.3 billion, uh, with an estimated realized value of $1 billion.
Do you expect to, uh, recover more than the $1 billion?
Uh, because of the new Cardon 4, uh, sustainability agreement.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. As I said before, we just signed one agreement, the Cardón IV Sustainability Agreement, to fix the future. Now with this new engagement and conversation we are having on how to develop the oil assets, we will fix also the past.
Guido Brusco: Yeah. As I said before, we just signed one agreement, the Cardón IV Sustainability Agreement, to fix the future. Now with this new engagement and conversation we are having on how to develop the oil assets, we will fix also the past.
Uh, yeah. As I, as I said, as I said before, uh, we, we just signed 1 agreements. We are having, uh, on how to develop the, uh, the oil assets. Uh, we will fix also the past.
Bertrand Hodée: How should we think about this $2.3 billion of outstanding receivables?
Bertrand Hodee: How should we think about this $2.3 billion of outstanding receivables?
and so,
of course, we
Guido Brusco: There will be mechanism developed to recover this past dues within the framework of the development of the oil field.
Guido Brusco: There will be mechanism developed to recover this past dues within the framework of the development of the oil field.
I think that this, uh, you know, $2.3 billion of, uh, outstanding respectables—that will be a mechanism developed to recover, uh, this past use, uh, within the framework of the development of the oil field.
Bertrand Hodée: Okay.
Bertrand Hodee: Okay.
Guido Brusco: Is that more clear?
Guido Brusco: Is that more clear?
Bertrand Hodée: Yeah. It's not going to be within the Cardón IV JV, but within the new oil framework?
Bertrand Hodee: Yeah. It's not going to be within the Cardón IV JV, but within the new oil framework?
Is that more clear? Yeah.
Guido Brusco: A combination. It's very flexible, but it will be essentially more focused or centered around the oil development.
Guido Brusco: A combination. It's very flexible, but it will be essentially more focused or centered around the oil development.
Yes, so it's it's not going to be within the garden for a GV. But within the, uh, the oil, the new oil framework or or a combination or, uh, it's, it's a very flexible but you in, it will be essentially, uh,
Francesco Gattei: New development that will clearly give more flexibility in terms of cargo that could be used or new revenues that could emerge by additional production.
Francesco Gattei: New development that will clearly give more flexibility in terms of cargo that could be used or new revenues that could emerge by additional production.
John Rigby: Think of it as a holistic solution to all the challenges that we have there. Thank you, Bertrand. Thank you everybody for joining the Q&A and your attention on Eni's Q1. We look forward to speaking to you soon. Have a great weekend. Thank you.
John Rigby: Think of it as a holistic solution to all the challenges that we have there. Thank you, Bertrand. Thank you everybody for joining the Q&A and your attention on Eni's Q1. We look forward to speaking to you soon. Have a great weekend. Thank you.
More focused or centered around the oil development than new development, that will clearly give more flexibility in terms of, uh, cargo that could be used or new revenues that could emerge by production and additional production. Think of it as, as an analytic, analytic solution to the, to the, the whole, all the challenges.
That we have there. Thank you, Peter, and thank you everybody. Uh, for joining the Q&A and your attention. Uh on any q1. We look forward to speaking to you soon. Uh, have a great weekend. Thank you.
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