First Hawaiian Q4 2025 First Hawaiian Inc Earnings Call | AllMind AI Earnings | AllMind AI
Q4 2025 First Hawaiian Inc Earnings Call
Operator: Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the First Hawaiian, Inc. Q4 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.... I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Hasegawa, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one-one on your telephone.
Speaker #1: We will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded.
Speaker #1: I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Kevin Haseyama, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Kevin. And thank you, everyone, for joining us as we review our financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. With me today are Bob Harrison, Chairman, President, and CEO; Jamie Moses, Chief Financial Officer; and Lea Nakamura, Chief Risk Officer.
Kevin Hasegawa: Thank you, Kevin, and thank you everyone for joining us as we review our financial results for Q4 2025. With me today are Bob Harrison, Chairman, President, and CEO; Jamie Moses, Chief Financial Officer; and Lea Nakamura, Chief Risk Officer. We have prepared a slide presentation that we will refer to in our remarks today. The presentation is available for downloading and viewing on our website at fhb.com in the Investor Relations section. During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, so please refer to slide one for our safe harbor statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The appendix to this presentation contains reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the most directly comparable GAAP measurements. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob.
Kevin Hasegawa: Thank you, Kevin, and thank you everyone for joining us as we review our financial results for Q4 2025. With me today are Bob Harrison, Chairman, President, and CEO; Jamie Moses, Chief Financial Officer; and Lea Nakamura, Chief Risk Officer. We have prepared a slide presentation that we will refer to in our remarks today. The presentation is available for downloading and viewing on our website at fhb.com in the Investor Relations section. During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, so please refer to slide one for our safe harbor statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. The appendix to this presentation contains reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the most directly comparable GAAP measurements. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob.
Speaker #2: We have prepared a slide presentation that we will refer to in our remarks today. The presentation is available for downloading and viewing on our website at fhb.com in the Investor Relations section.
Speaker #2: During today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements, so please refer to slide 1 of our safe harbor statement. We may also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Speaker #2: The appendix to this presentation contains reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measurements to the most directly comparable GAAP measurements. And now I'll turn the call over to Bob.
Speaker #3: Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start with some local economic highlights. The state unemployment rate continued to fall and was at 2.2% in November, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%.
Bob Harrison: Aloha, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start with some local economic highlights. The state unemployment rate continued to fall and was at 2.2% in November, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. Through November, total visitor arrivals were down 0.2% compared to last year, primarily due to fewer visitors from Canada. Japan remained a bright spot, up 2.8% on a year-to-date basis. However, year-to-date spending through November was $19.6 billion, up about 6% compared to the same period of last year. Housing market remained stable, with the median single-family home price on Oahu in December was $1.1 million, up 4.3% from the prior year.
Bob Harrison: Aloha, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. I'll start with some local economic highlights. The state unemployment rate continued to fall and was at 2.2% in November, compared to the national unemployment rate of 4.5%. Through November, total visitor arrivals were down 0.2% compared to last year, primarily due to fewer visitors from Canada. Japan remained a bright spot, up 2.8% on a year-to-date basis. However, year-to-date spending through November was $19.6 billion, up about 6% compared to the same period of last year. Housing market remained stable, with the median single-family home price on Oahu in December was $1.1 million, up 4.3% from the prior year.
Speaker #3: Through November, total visitor arrivals were down 0.2% compared to last year, primarily due to fewer visitors from Canada. Japan remained a bright spot, up 2.8% on a year-to-date basis.
Speaker #3: However, year-to-date spending through November was $19.6 billion, up about 6% compared to the same period last year. The housing market remained stable, with the median single-family home price on Oahu in December at $1.1 million, up 4.3% from the prior year.
Speaker #3: The median condo sales price on Oahu in December was $512,000, down 5.2% from last year. Turning to Slide 2, we had another strong quarter.
Bob Harrison: The median condo sales price on Oahu in December was $512,000, down 5.2% from last year. Turning to slide 2, we had another strong quarter. Our NIM expanded, net interest income grew, expenses were well contained, and credit quality remained strong. Our profitability measures remained solid, with return on average tangible equity at 15.8% in Q4 and 16.3% for the full year. The effective tax rate in Q4 was 24.8%. This was due to the reversal of our previously accrued tax benefit. We expect the effective tax rate to return to about 23.2% going forward. Turning to slide 3, balance sheet remains solid. We continue to be well capitalized with ample liquidity.
The median condo sales price on Oahu in December was $512,000, down 5.2% from last year. Turning to slide 2, we had another strong quarter. Our NIM expanded, net interest income grew, expenses were well contained, and credit quality remained strong. Our profitability measures remained solid, with return on average tangible equity at 15.8% in Q4 and 16.3% for the full year. The effective tax rate in Q4 was 24.8%. This was due to the reversal of our previously accrued tax benefit. We expect the effective tax rate to return to about 23.2% going forward. Turning to slide 3, balance sheet remains solid. We continue to be well capitalized with ample liquidity.
Speaker #3: Our NIM expanded, net interest income grew, expenses were well contained, and credit quality remained strong. Our profitability measures remained solid, with return on average tangible equity at 15.8% in the fourth quarter and 16.3% for the full year.
Speaker #3: The effective tax rate in the fourth quarter was 24.8%. This was due to the reversal of our previously accrued tax benefit. We expect the effective tax rate to return to about 23.2% going forward.
Speaker #3: Turning to slide 3, the balance sheet remained solid. We continued to be well capitalized with ample liquidity. We had good growth in C&I loans, as well as retail and commercial deposits.
Bob Harrison: We had good growth in C&I loans, as well as retail and commercial deposits. During the quarter, we repurchased about 1 million shares, which used the remaining $26 million of our $100 million purchase authorization for 2025. Our new stock repurchase authorization is for $250 million, and unlike prior authorization, the current authorization is not for a specific timeframe. Turning to slide 4, total loans grew $183 million in the quarter, or 5.2% on an annualized basis. We had good growth in C&I loans, primarily due to draws on existing lines, as well as the addition of a new auto dealer customer. The CRE growth and decline in construction was primarily due to a couple construction deals that were converted from construction to CRE. Outside of those conversions, balances in both portfolios were relatively flat.
We had good growth in C&I loans, as well as retail and commercial deposits. During the quarter, we repurchased about 1 million shares, which used the remaining $26 million of our $100 million purchase authorization for 2025. Our new stock repurchase authorization is for $250 million, and unlike prior authorization, the current authorization is not for a specific timeframe. Turning to slide 4, total loans grew $183 million in the quarter, or 5.2% on an annualized basis. We had good growth in C&I loans, primarily due to draws on existing lines, as well as the addition of a new auto dealer customer. The CRE growth and decline in construction was primarily due to a couple construction deals that were converted from construction to CRE. Outside of those conversions, balances in both portfolios were relatively flat.
Speaker #3: During the quarter, we repurchased about 1 million shares, which used the remaining $26 million of our $100 million purchase authorization for 2025.
Speaker #3: Our new stock repurchase authorization is for $250 million. And unlike prior authorization, the current authorization is not for a specific time frame. Turning to slide 4, total loans grew $183 million in the quarter.
Speaker #3: Or 5.2% on an annualized basis. We had good growth in C&I loans, primarily due to draws on existing lines, as well as the addition of a new auto dealer customer.
Speaker #3: The CRE growth and decline in construction was primarily due to a couple of construction deals that were converted from construction to CRE. Outside of those conversions, balances in both portfolios were relatively flat.
Speaker #3: Now I'll turn it over to
Bob Harrison: Now I'll turn it over to Jamie.
Now I'll turn it over to Jamie.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Bob. Turning to slide 5, we saw good growth in retail and commercial deposits, while a lot of the public operating deposits that came in during the third quarter flowed out in the fourth quarter, as we expected.
Jamie Moses: Thanks, Bob. Turning to slide five, we saw good growth in retail and commercial deposits, while a lot of the public operating deposits that came in during the Q3 flowed out in the Q4, as we expected. Retail and commercial deposits increased $233 million, while public deposits declined by $447 million. That dynamic resulted in a net increase in deposits of $214 million in the Q4. The total cost of deposits fell by 9 basis points to 1.29%, and our non-interest-bearing deposit ratio was 32%. On slide six, net interest income was $170.3 million, $1 million higher than the prior quarter. The NIM in the Q4 was 3.21%, up 2 basis points compared to the prior quarter.
Jamie Moses: Thanks, Bob. Turning to slide five, we saw good growth in retail and commercial deposits, while a lot of the public operating deposits that came in during the Q3 flowed out in the Q4, as we expected. Retail and commercial deposits increased $233 million, while public deposits declined by $447 million. That dynamic resulted in a net increase in deposits of $214 million in the Q4. The total cost of deposits fell by 9 basis points to 1.29%, and our non-interest-bearing deposit ratio was 32%. On slide six, net interest income was $170.3 million, $1 million higher than the prior quarter. The NIM in the Q4 was 3.21%, up 2 basis points compared to the prior quarter.
Speaker #2: Retail and commercial deposits increased $233 million, while public deposits declined by $447 million. That dynamic resulted in a net increase in deposits of $214 million in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #2: The total cost of deposits fell by nine basis points to 1.29%, and our non-interest-bearing deposit ratio was 32%. On slide 6, net interest income was $170.3 million, $1 million higher than the prior quarter.
Speaker #2: The NIM in the fourth quarter was 3.21%, up two basis points compared to the prior quarter. The increase in the margin was primarily driven by lower deposit costs and the full quarter benefit of the borrowing that matured in September, partially offset by lower loan yields.
Jamie Moses: The increase in the margin was primarily driven by lower deposit costs and the full quarter benefit of the borrowing that matured in September, partially offset by lower loan yields. The exit NIM for the month of December was 3.21%. Turning to slide 7, non-interest income was $55.6 million. Non-interest expense in Q4 was $125.1 million. Now I'll turn it over to Lea.
The increase in the margin was primarily driven by lower deposit costs and the full quarter benefit of the borrowing that matured in September, partially offset by lower loan yields. The exit NIM for the month of December was 3.21%. Turning to slide 7, non-interest income was $55.6 million. Non-interest expense in Q4 was $125.1 million. Now I'll turn it over to Lea.
Speaker #2: The exit NIM for the month of December was 3.21%. Turning to slide 7, non-interest income was $55.6 million. Non-interest expense in the fourth quarter was $125.1 million.
Speaker #2: And now I'll turn it over to Lea.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Jamie. Moving to slide 8, the bank continues to maintain its strong credit performance and healthy credit metrics. Credit risk remains low, stable, and well within our expectations.
Lea Nakamura: Thank you, Jamie. Moving to slide 8, the bank continues to maintain its strong credit performance and healthy credit metrics. Credit risk remains low, stable, and well within our expectations. Overall, we're not observing any broad signs of weakness across either the consumer or commercial books. Classified assets decreased by 7 basis points, while special mention assets increased by 16 basis points. Quarter to date, net charge-offs were $5 million, or 14 basis points of total loans and leases. Year to date, net charge-offs were $16.3 million. Our annual net charge-off rate was 11 basis points, unchanged from the third quarter. Non-performing assets and 90-day past due loans were 31 basis points of total loans and leases at the end of the fourth quarter, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by a single relationship.
Lea Nakamura: Thank you, Jamie. Moving to slide 8, the bank continues to maintain its strong credit performance and healthy credit metrics. Credit risk remains low, stable, and well within our expectations. Overall, we're not observing any broad signs of weakness across either the consumer or commercial books. Classified assets decreased by 7 basis points, while special mention assets increased by 16 basis points. Quarter to date, net charge-offs were $5 million, or 14 basis points of total loans and leases. Year to date, net charge-offs were $16.3 million. Our annual net charge-off rate was 11 basis points, unchanged from the third quarter. Non-performing assets and 90-day past due loans were 31 basis points of total loans and leases at the end of the fourth quarter, up 5 basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by a single relationship.
Speaker #4: Overall, we're not observing any broad signs of weakness across either the consumer or commercial books. Classified assets decreased by seven basis points, while special mention assets increased by sixteen basis points.
Speaker #4: Quarter-to-date net charge-offs were $5 million, or 14 basis points of total loans and leases. Year-to-date net charge-offs were $16.3 million. Our annual net charge-off rate was 11 basis points, unchanged from the third quarter.
Speaker #4: Non-performing assets and 90-day past-due loans were 31 basis points of total loans and leases at the end of the fourth quarter, up five basis points from the prior quarter, primarily driven by a single relationship.
Speaker #4: Moving to slide 9, we show our fourth quarter allowance for credit losses, broken out by disclosure segments. The bank recorded a $7.7 million provision in the fourth quarter.
Lea Nakamura: Moving to slide 9, we show our Q4 allowance for credit losses broken out by disclosure segments. The bank recorded a $7.7 million provision in the Q4. The asset ACL increased by $3.2 million to $168.5 million, with coverage increasing to 118 basis points of total loans and leases. We believe that we continue to be conservatively reserved and ready for a wide range of outcomes. And now I'll turn it back over to Bob.
Moving to slide 9, we show our Q4 allowance for credit losses broken out by disclosure segments. The bank recorded a $7.7 million provision in the Q4. The asset ACL increased by $3.2 million to $168.5 million, with coverage increasing to 118 basis points of total loans and leases. We believe that we continue to be conservatively reserved and ready for a wide range of outcomes. And now I'll turn it back over to Bob.
Speaker #4: The asset ACL increased by $3.2 million to $168.5 million, with coverage increasing to 118 basis points of total loans and leases. We believe that we continue to be conservatively reserved and ready for a wide range of outcomes.
Speaker #4: And now I'll turn it back over to
Speaker #4: Bob. Thanks, Lea.
Bob Harrison: Thanks, Lee. Turning to slide 10, we have summarized our current full year 2026 outlook for some of our key earnings drivers. Starting with loans, we expect full year loan growth to be 3% to 4% range. The growth will be driven primarily by CRE and C&I loans. We anticipate that the full year NIM will be in the 3.16% to 3.18% range. We continue to expect tailwinds from fixed asset repricing, but additional Fed rate cuts and a decreasing deposit beta will remain headwinds. We expect non-interest income to be stable and to come in at about $220 million for the year. And finally, we expect expenses to be about $520 million in 2026. That concludes our prepared remarks, and now we'd be happy to take your questions.
Bob Harrison: Thanks, Lee. Turning to slide 10, we have summarized our current full year 2026 outlook for some of our key earnings drivers. Starting with loans, we expect full year loan growth to be 3% to 4% range. The growth will be driven primarily by CRE and C&I loans. We anticipate that the full year NIM will be in the 3.16% to 3.18% range. We continue to expect tailwinds from fixed asset repricing, but additional Fed rate cuts and a decreasing deposit beta will remain headwinds. We expect non-interest income to be stable and to come in at about $220 million for the year. And finally, we expect expenses to be about $520 million in 2026. That concludes our prepared remarks, and now we'd be happy to take your questions.
Speaker #2: Turning to slide 10, we have summarized our current full-year 2026 outlook. For some of our key earnings drivers, starting with loans, we expect full-year loan growth to be in the 3% to 4% range.
Speaker #2: The growth will be driven primarily by CRE and C&I loans. We anticipate that the full-year NIM will be in the 3.16% to 3.18% range.
Speaker #2: We continue to expect tailwinds from fixed asset repricing, but additional Fed rate cuts and a decreasing deposit beta will remain headwinds. We expect non-interest income to be stable and to come in at about $220 million for the year.
Speaker #2: And finally, we expect expenses to be about $520 million in 2026. That concludes our prepared remarks, and now I'd be happy to take your questions.
Speaker #1: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. If you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star 1-1 on your telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to move yourself from the queue, please press star 1-1 again.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered, or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.
Operator: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. If your question has been answered, or you wish to remove yourself from the queue, please press star one one again. We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: We'll pause for a moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question comes from David Feaster with Raymond James. Your line is open.
Speaker #5: Hi, good morning everybody.
[Analyst] (Raymond James): Hi, good morning, everybody.
David Feaster: Hi, good morning, everybody.
Bob Harrison: Morning, Dave.
Bob Harrison: Morning, Dave.
Lea Nakamura: Good morning, Dave.
Lea Nakamura: Good morning, Dave.
Speaker #7: Morning, Morning to you.
Speaker #7: David, I wanted to start on
[Analyst] (Raymond James): I wanted to start on the loan growth. It was really encouraging to see some of the trends that you guys had, and especially to see the C&I growth. I was hoping to maybe just get some color on, I guess, first of all, you know, how pipelines are shaping up and, you know, how much of the growth in C&I was, you know, increasing utilization, versus, you know, new relationship growth. Just kind of curious some of the underlying trends you're seeing there. And then just some commentary too, on Mainland versus Hawaii as well.
David Feaster: I wanted to start on the loan growth. It was really encouraging to see some of the trends that you guys had, and especially to see the C&I growth. I was hoping to maybe just get some color on, I guess, first of all, you know, how pipelines are shaping up and, you know, how much of the growth in C&I was, you know, increasing utilization, versus, you know, new relationship growth. Just kind of curious some of the underlying trends you're seeing there. And then just some commentary too, on Mainland versus Hawaii as well.
Speaker #5: The loan growth—it was really encouraging to see some of the trends that you guys had, and especially to see the C&I growth. I was hoping to maybe just get some color on, I guess, first of all, you know, how pipelines are shaping up and, you know, how much of the growth in C&I was utilization versus, you know, new increasing relationship growth.
Speaker #5: Just kind of curious, some of the underlying trends you're seeing there. And then just some commentary, too, on mainland versus Hawaii as well.
Speaker #6: Sure. Yeah, great question. Thanks, David. This is Bob. So, on the loan growth—when we looked at it, it really was more, as far as what happened in the quarter, it wasn't quite what we thought it would be.
Bob Harrison: Sure. Yeah, great question. Thanks, Dave. This is Bob. So on the loan growth, when we looked at it, it really was more, as far as what happened on the quarter, it wasn't quite what we thought it would be. We had some payoffs in the CRE portfolio that we had anticipated to come in later, which is why we didn't quite hit the number we had talked about on the third quarter call. But having said that, it really was pretty broad-based in local, primarily in some mainland, draws under lines, and then a new dealer relationship helped out as well. We'll see more of that, I think, in the quarters to come. So as we look forward, we're really looking towards as far as the pipeline of multifamily is still there.
Bob Harrison: Sure. Yeah, great question. Thanks, Dave. This is Bob. So on the loan growth, when we looked at it, it really was more, as far as what happened on the quarter, it wasn't quite what we thought it would be. We had some payoffs in the CRE portfolio that we had anticipated to come in later, which is why we didn't quite hit the number we had talked about on the third quarter call. But having said that, it really was pretty broad-based in local, primarily in some mainland, draws under lines, and then a new dealer relationship helped out as well. We'll see more of that, I think, in the quarters to come. So as we look forward, we're really looking towards as far as the pipeline of multifamily is still there.
Speaker #6: We had some payoffs in the CRE portfolio that we had anticipated to come in later, which is why we didn't quite hit the number we had talked about on the third quarter call.
Speaker #6: But having said that, it really was pretty broad-based in local, primarily, and some mainland draws under lines, and then the new dealer relationship helped out as well.
Speaker #6: We'll see more of that, I think, in the quarters to come. So as we look forward, we're really looking towards—as far as the pipeline of multifamily, it's still there.
Bob Harrison: We're very, very busy, and of course, when you book those deals, it will take a while for them to fund. We're still a little bit outrunning the payoffs that happened in that gap period we talked about on the last call of SVB, kind of slowing down production for a while, a couple years ago. So that's behind us, mostly in the first half of the year, and we expect the second half of the year to start to see more normalized growth in the CRE on the mainland. We are still seeing activity here in Hawaii. A good amount of the activity this past quarter in Q4 was Hawaii-based, but not exclusively. Does that cover what you're thinking about?
We're very, very busy, and of course, when you book those deals, it will take a while for them to fund. We're still a little bit outrunning the payoffs that happened in that gap period we talked about on the last call of SVB, kind of slowing down production for a while, a couple years ago. So that's behind us, mostly in the first half of the year, and we expect the second half of the year to start to see more normalized growth in the CRE on the mainland. We are still seeing activity here in Hawaii. A good amount of the activity this past quarter in Q4 was Hawaii-based, but not exclusively. Does that cover what you're thinking about?
Speaker #6: We're very, very busy, and of course, when you book those deals, it will take a while for them to fund. We're still a little bit outrunning the payoffs that happened in that gap period we talked about on the last call—of SVB kind of slowing down production for a while, a couple of years ago.
Speaker #6: So, that's behind us mostly in the first half of the year, and we expect the second half of the year to start to see more normalized growth in the CRE on the mainland.
Speaker #6: We are still seeing activity here in Hawaii. A good amount of the activity this past quarter in Q4 was Hawaii-based, but not exclusively. Does that cover what you were thinking about?
[Analyst] (Raymond James): That's, that's extremely helpful. And, and, you know, the-- could you maybe talk about the payoffs and paydowns have been a real headwind in the industry. Could you maybe touch on, on what led to maybe some of the, the payoffs and paydowns coming sooner than expected? And, and as you think about, you know, your outlook that you guys have laid out for loan growth, does that contemplate continuation of, of payoffs and paydowns, or, or is that a risk that y'all are concerned about? Just kind of curious your thoughts on that, that side.
Speaker #5: That's extremely helpful. And, you know, could you maybe talk about the payoffs and payouts have been a real headwind in the industry. Could you maybe touch on what led to maybe some of the payoffs and payouts coming sooner than expected?
David Feaster: That's, that's extremely helpful. And, and, you know, the-- could you maybe talk about the payoffs and paydowns have been a real headwind in the industry. Could you maybe touch on, on what led to maybe some of the, the payoffs and paydowns coming sooner than expected? And, and as you think about, you know, your outlook that you guys have laid out for loan growth, does that contemplate continuation of, of payoffs and paydowns, or, or is that a risk that y'all are concerned about? Just kind of curious your thoughts on that, that side.
Speaker #5: And as you think about, you know, your outlook that you guys have laid out for loan growth, does that contemplate continuation of payoffs and payouts, or is that a risk that y'all are concerned about?
Speaker #5: Just kind of curious your thoughts on that side.
Bob Harrison: Sure. I think there's two pieces to that. The first piece is, are the payoffs coming sooner than we expected. They have been a bit this year. I think all the permanent lenders are just as hungry for assets as the banks are. And so, you know, they're coming in, maybe a little bit earlier than normal. Not like we saw a few years ago when they were coming in before properties were even completed construction, but maybe before full stabilization, you're seeing permanent lenders come in on some of those, multifamily projects. So that's kind of a moving up the calendar a bit, but not really a big difference.
Bob Harrison: Sure. I think there's two pieces to that. The first piece is, are the payoffs coming sooner than we expected. They have been a bit this year. I think all the permanent lenders are just as hungry for assets as the banks are. And so, you know, they're coming in, maybe a little bit earlier than normal. Not like we saw a few years ago when they were coming in before properties were even completed construction, but maybe before full stabilization, you're seeing permanent lenders come in on some of those, multifamily projects. So that's kind of a moving up the calendar a bit, but not really a big difference.
Speaker #6: Sure. I think there are two pieces to that. The first piece is the payoffs coming sooner than we expected. They have been a bit this year.
Speaker #6: I think all the permanent lenders are just as hungry for assets as the banks are, and so, you know, they're coming in maybe a little bit earlier than normal.
Speaker #6: Not like we saw a few years ago, when they were coming in before properties were even completed construction, but maybe before full stabilization. You're seeing permanent lenders come in on some of those multifamily projects.
Speaker #6: So, that's kind of a moving up the calendar a bit, but not really a big difference. The payouts and the industry, as we talked about before, I think we're in that belly of the part of the curve where deals didn't get done a couple of years ago, after the, you know, concerns about liquidity with SVB, First Republic, Signature, et cetera.
Bob Harrison: The paydowns in the industry, as we talked about before, I think we're in that belly of the part of the curve that where deals didn't get done a couple of years ago after the, you know, concerns about liquidity with SVB, First Republic, Signature, et cetera. So, we think that should be kind of burning through in the first half of this year and the back half of the year, that should get better. But there is still a high desire for assets out there and of good quality assets, which is the ones we like to fund. People are looking for that.
The paydowns in the industry, as we talked about before, I think we're in that belly of the part of the curve that where deals didn't get done a couple of years ago after the, you know, concerns about liquidity with SVB, First Republic, Signature, et cetera. So, we think that should be kind of burning through in the first half of this year and the back half of the year, that should get better. But there is still a high desire for assets out there and of good quality assets, which is the ones we like to fund. People are looking for that.
Speaker #6: So, we think that should be kind of burning through in the first half of this year, and in the back half of the year, that should get better.
Speaker #6: But there is still a high desire for assets out there, and good quality assets, which are the ones we like to fund. People are looking for that.
Speaker #5: Okay. And then maybe just shifting to the other side of the balance sheet. I mean, core deposit trends have been really good. It's not—you already have a low cost of deposits, and you're continuing to take it down further.
[Analyst] (Raymond James): Okay. And then maybe just shift into the other side of the balance sheet. I mean, core deposit trends have been really good. It's not you all already have a low cost of deposits, and you're continuing to take it down further. You know, a lot of the NIM expansion that we've seen has come from reduction in funding costs. I know your margin guide has, you know, I think two cuts in there. As you think about margin expansion going forward, is on the funding cost side and the back pricing, really the tailwind?
David Feaster: Okay. And then maybe just shift into the other side of the balance sheet. I mean, core deposit trends have been really good. It's not you all already have a low cost of deposits, and you're continuing to take it down further. You know, a lot of the NIM expansion that we've seen has come from reduction in funding costs. I know your margin guide has, you know, I think two cuts in there. As you think about margin expansion going forward, is on the funding cost side and the back pricing, really the tailwind?
Speaker #5: You know, a lot of the NIM expansion that we've seen has come from reduction in funding costs. I know your margin guide has, I think, two cuts in there.
Speaker #5: As you think about margin expansion going forward, do you notice on the funding cost side, in the back, increasing really the tailwind there? And just how has funding been to reducing deposit costs thus far?
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): ... there, and just how has been to reducing deposit costs thus far? Like, have you seen any attrition or much pushback as you work through that?
... there, and just how has been to reducing deposit costs thus far? Like, have you seen any attrition or much pushback as you work through that?
Speaker #5: Like, have you seen any attrition or much pushback as you work through?
Speaker #5: Sorry, could you repeat that? So, Dave, you kind of cut out.
Jamie Moses: So, Dave, you kind of cut out there a little bit, but I'm going to answer the question as I think you asked it, and then you can let me know if I missed something for you. You know, I think the margin guide reflects both an ability to continue to cut deposit rates, you know, when the Fed cuts, as well as that fixed asset repricing that we continue to talk about, and we've seen those trends over time. We think the beta is probably going to be a little bit lower go forward than where we were before. So Q4, you know, interest-bearing deposit beta around 35%.
Jamie Moses: So, Dave, you kind of cut out there a little bit, but I'm going to answer the question as I think you asked it, and then you can let me know if I missed something for you. You know, I think the margin guide reflects both an ability to continue to cut deposit rates, you know, when the Fed cuts, as well as that fixed asset repricing that we continue to talk about, and we've seen those trends over time. We think the beta is probably going to be a little bit lower go forward than where we were before. So Q4, you know, interest-bearing deposit beta around 35%.
Speaker #6: There's a little bit, but I'm going to answer the question as I think you asked it, and then you can let me know if I missed something for you.
Speaker #6: You know, I think the margin guide reflects both an ability to continue to cut deposit rates, you know, when the Fed cuts, as well as that fixed asset repricing that we continue to talk about.
Speaker #6: And we've seen those trends over time. We think the beta is probably going to be a little bit lower going forward than where we were before.
Speaker #6: So, fourth quarter, you know, interest-bearing deposit beta around 35%. You know, we would anticipate with two rate cuts that the interest-bearing deposit beta on that would be somewhere between 30 and 35.
Jamie Moses: You know, we would anticipate with two rate cuts that the interest-bearing deposit beta on that, somewhere between 30 and 35. So less than, less than where we've been, but still pretty healthy for now, at least. And then on the fixed asset repricing side, we kind of summarized that for you. So inclusive of all of the pay downs in the securities portfolio, as well as fixed rate cash flows coming out of the loan portfolio, we think that's about $400 million a quarter or so, with about 150 basis points repricing accretion on that.
You know, we would anticipate with two rate cuts that the interest-bearing deposit beta on that, somewhere between 30 and 35. So less than, less than where we've been, but still pretty healthy for now, at least. And then on the fixed asset repricing side, we kind of summarized that for you. So inclusive of all of the pay downs in the securities portfolio, as well as fixed rate cash flows coming out of the loan portfolio, we think that's about $400 million a quarter or so, with about 150 basis points repricing accretion on that.
Speaker #6: So, less than where we've been. Still pretty healthy for now, at least. And then on the fixed asset repricing side, we kind of summarized that for you.
Speaker #6: So, inclusive of all of the payouts and the securities portfolio as well as fixed-rate cash flows coming out of the loan portfolio, we think that's about $400 million a quarter or so, with about 150 basis points repricing accretion on that.
Speaker #6: So, you know, all of those things suppose a particular set of loan growth, and obviously, the way that the pace and timing of Fed rate cuts will impact that as well.
Jamie Moses: So, you know, we, all of those things suppose a particular set of loan growth, and obviously, the way that the pace and timing of Fed rate cuts will impact that as well. But yeah, that's kind of where we're at on the NIM.
So, you know, we, all of those things suppose a particular set of loan growth, and obviously, the way that the pace and timing of Fed rate cuts will impact that as well. But yeah, that's kind of where we're at on the NIM.
Speaker #6: But yeah, that's kind of where we that's kind of where we're at on the
Speaker #6: NIM.
Speaker #5: That's
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): That's great. Thanks.
David Feaster: That's great. Thanks.
Speaker #5: great.
Speaker #5: Great, thanks. One moment for our next.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andrew Terrell, with Stephens. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Andrew Terrell, with Stephens. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Andrew Terrell with Stevens. Your line is open.
Speaker #7: Hey, good
[Analyst] (Stephens): Hey, good morning.
Andrew Terrell: Hey, good morning.
Speaker #7: Morning. Morning. Just to start, and just to clarify, the $385 million of fixed cash flows, that's on a quarterly basis, so that kind of checks with—I think we've talked about—like $1.5 billion in the past on an annual basis?
Jamie Moses: Morning.
Jamie Moses: Morning.
[Analyst] (Stephens): Just to start and just to, to clarify, the $385 million of fixed cash flows, that's on a quarterly basis, so it kind of checks with, I think we've talked about like a $1.5 billion in the past on an annual basis?
Andrew Terrell: Just to start and just to, to clarify, the $385 million of fixed cash flows, that's on a quarterly basis, so it kind of checks with, I think we've talked about like a $1.5 billion in the past on an annual basis?
Speaker #6: Yeah, that was the fourth quarter. To be very specific,
Jamie Moses: Yeah, that was, that was the fourth quarter, to be very specific, Andrew. Yeah.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, that was, that was the fourth quarter, to be very specific, Andrew. Yeah.
Speaker #6: Andrew, yeah. We didn't get it. Put that in there. We did a quick clarify—that was a quarter and not some of the annual assumptions we had in there and the rest of that page.
[Analyst] (Stephens): Got it. Okay.
Andrew Terrell: Got it. Okay.
Jamie Moses: We didn't put that in deck. We just clarified that was the quarter and not, some of the annual assumptions we had in there and the rest of that page. Thank you for clarifying.
Bob Harrison: We didn't put that in deck. We just clarified that was the quarter and not, some of the annual assumptions we had in there and the rest of that page. Thank you for clarifying.
Speaker #6: Thank you for
Speaker #6: clarifying. Yeah, no worries.
[Analyst] (Stephens): Yep. Yep, no worries. Thank you, guys. Could you maybe help me just, bifurcating that out a little bit? And I think we have a good sense of relative dollars on either side that you've given, but I'd want to talk about maybe spread competition you're seeing for new, new assets today. You know, how much in marginal pickup would you expect from securities cash flow versus, you know, where loans are running off versus where you're kind of able to reprice that today? Just, we've heard a lot on competition recently from other banks, and I'm curious if you're seeing the same thing on new loan growth.
Andrew Terrell: Yep. Yep, no worries. Thank you, guys. Could you maybe help me just, bifurcating that out a little bit? And I think we have a good sense of relative dollars on either side that you've given, but I'd want to talk about maybe spread competition you're seeing for new, new assets today. You know, how much in marginal pickup would you expect from securities cash flow versus, you know, where loans are running off versus where you're kind of able to reprice that today? Just, we've heard a lot on competition recently from other banks, and I'm curious if you're seeing the same thing on new loan growth.
Speaker #7: Thank you, guys. Could you maybe help me just bifurcate that out a little bit? And I think we have a good sense of relative dollars on either side that you've given, but I'd just want to talk about maybe spread competition you're seeing for new assets today. You know, how much in marginal pickup would you expect from securities cash flow versus, you know, where loans are running off, versus where you're kind of able to reprice that today?
Speaker #7: We've heard a lot about competition recently from other banks, and we're curious if you're seeing the same thing on new loan growth.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I would say that there is some spread competition. We've definitely seen that. We still think it's, you know, 180 to 200 basis points on the securities portfolio, and that's pretty fixed. That's pretty well known. And so again, you know, that's about $600 million for the next year, and then about $1 billion on the loan portfolio. So, you know, a little bit less than that, maybe a hundred basis points, somewhere in 80, 100 basis points, pick up on the loans, versus the 200 or so on the securities.
Speaker #6: Yeah, I would say that there is some spread competition. We've definitely seen that. We still think it's, you know, 180 to 200 basis points on the securities portfolio, and that's pretty fixed.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I would say that there is some spread competition. We've definitely seen that. We still think it's, you know, 180 to 200 basis points on the securities portfolio, and that's pretty fixed. That's pretty well known. And so again, you know, that's about $600 million for the next year, and then about $1 billion on the loan portfolio. So, you know, a little bit less than that, maybe a hundred basis points, somewhere in 80, 100 basis points, pick up on the loans, versus the 200 or so on the securities.
Speaker #6: That's pretty well known. And so, again, you know, that's about $600 million for the next year, and then about $1 billion on the loan portfolio.
Speaker #6: So, you know, a little bit less than that, maybe 100 basis points, somewhere in 80–100 basis points pickup on the loans versus the 200 or so on the—
Speaker #6: securities. Yeah.
[Analyst] (Stephens): Yeah. Okay. And then on the just on the full year loan growth guide of 3% to 4%, it sounds like you might expect some payoffs maybe in the first part of the year, but then better on the second half of the year. And I guess the question is: Is it fair to think you could start, you know, at the low end or even below the guide in terms of loan growth, and then it picks up throughout the year? Or should we just think about it as kind of ratable 3% to 4% throughout the year?
Andrew Terrell: Yeah. Okay. And then on the just on the full year loan growth guide of 3% to 4%, it sounds like you might expect some payoffs maybe in the first part of the year, but then better on the second half of the year. And I guess the question is: Is it fair to think you could start, you know, at the low end or even below the guide in terms of loan growth, and then it picks up throughout the year? Or should we just think about it as kind of ratable 3% to 4% throughout the year?
Speaker #7: Okay. And then on the full-year loan growth guide of 3% to 4%, it sounds like you might expect some payoffs maybe in the first part of the year, but then better growth in the second half of the year.
Speaker #7: And I guess the question is, is it fair to think you could start, you know, at the low end or even below the guide in terms of loan growth, and then it picks up throughout the year?
Speaker #7: Or should we just think about it as kind of ratable 3% to 4% throughout the year?
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think it's not so much more payoffs in the first half of the year. I think it's a normal payoff activity. There were just fewer loans that were done a year and a half, two years ago, that are going to be funding now. So it's really less of the new production from that multifamily portfolio, and that should be through that in the back half of the year. So yeah, fair assumption, it should be probably lower in the first half and a pickup in the second half.
Speaker #6: Yeah, I think it's not so much more payoffs in the first half of the year. I think it's a normal payoff activity. There just were fewer loans that were done a year and a half, two years ago, that are going to be funding now.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, I think it's not so much more payoffs in the first half of the year. I think it's a normal payoff activity. There were just fewer loans that were done a year and a half, two years ago, that are going to be funding now. So it's really less of the new production from that multifamily portfolio, and that should be through that in the back half of the year. So yeah, fair assumption, it should be probably lower in the first half and a pickup in the second half.
Speaker #6: So, it's really less of the new production from that multifamily portfolio, and that should be through that back half of the year. So, yeah, fair assumption that it should be probably lower in the first half, and a pickup in the second half.
Speaker #7: Okay, great. Thank you, guys, for taking the—
[Analyst] (Stephens): Okay, great. Thank you, guys, for taking the questions.
Andrew Terrell: Okay, great. Thank you, guys, for taking the questions.
Speaker #7: questions. One
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: Moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Janet Lee with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): Hello.
Janet Lee: Hello.
Speaker #8: Hello. Good
Jamie Moses: Good morning.
Jamie Moses: Good morning.
Speaker #6: morning.
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): To clarify on your deposit beta expectations for 30 to 35% after two cuts. So, I see 47%, if my calculation is correct, I think I see 47% interest-bearing deposit beta for Q4. So starting in Q1 or Q2, does that step down to 30 to 35%? Is that the right way to interpret?
Janet Lee: To clarify on your deposit beta expectations for 30 to 35% after two cuts. So, I see 47%, if my calculation is correct, I think I see 47% interest-bearing deposit beta for Q4. So starting in Q1 or Q2, does that step down to 30 to 35%? Is that the right way to interpret?
Speaker #8: Can you clarify your deposit beta expectations for 30 to 35% after two cuts? So, is it 40? If my calculation is correct, I think I see a 47% interest-bearing deposit beta for the fourth quarter.
Speaker #8: So, starting in the first or second quarter, does that step down to 30% to 35%? Is that the right way to interpret?
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think that's the right way to interpret it, is that the interest-bearing deposit beta is going to step down, you know, over time. But I think we're okay with, you know, like with the 2 rate cuts, it should continue to be close to what we've had in the past.
Speaker #6: Yeah, I think that's the right way to interpret it, is that the interest-bearing deposit beta is going to step down, you know, over time.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think that's the right way to interpret it, is that the interest-bearing deposit beta is going to step down, you know, over time. But I think we're okay with, you know, like with the 2 rate cuts, it should continue to be close to what we've had in the past.
Speaker #6: But we're, I think we're okay with, you know, like with the two rate cuts, it should continue to be close to what we've had in the—
Speaker #6: But we're—I think we're okay with, you know, like, with the two rate cuts, it should continue to be close to what we've had in the past.
Speaker #3: And that goes to—we've got a very low deposit cost. So, at some point, you just can't keep cutting rates, even though rates are coming down.
Operator: That goes to, we've got a very low deposit cost, so at some point, you just can't keep cutting rates, even though rates are coming down.
Bob Harrison: That goes to, we've got a very low deposit cost, so at some point, you just can't keep cutting rates, even though rates are coming down.
Speaker #8: Yes, definitely. Thanks for that. And for the expenses, you've had, I guess, two years of flat-ish expense growth. Looks like it's going up about 4 to 5%.
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): Yes, definitely. Thanks for that. For the expenses, you've had, I guess, two years of flattish expense growth. Looks like it's going up about 4% or 5%. Is this just a normalization of expense, or are you hiring a little more in 2026? Or, I mean, it's a pretty specific number for the expense guide. How should we think about, you know, potentially you beat 520 or coming in above? How should we think about your expense trajectory? Thanks.
Janet Lee: Yes, definitely. Thanks for that. For the expenses, you've had, I guess, two years of flattish expense growth. Looks like it's going up about 4% or 5%. Is this just a normalization of expense, or are you hiring a little more in 2026? Or, I mean, it's a pretty specific number for the expense guide. How should we think about, you know, potentially you beat 520 or coming in above? How should we think about your expense trajectory? Thanks.
Speaker #8: Is this just a normalization of expense, or are you hiring a little more in 2026, or? I mean, it's a pretty specific number for the expense guide.
Speaker #8: How should we think about, you know, potentially you beat $520, or coming in above? How should we think about your expense trajectory? Thanks.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, great question, Janet. Let me kind of back up a little bit and tell you, you know, one of the primary reasons why we've been able to hold costs down in the last year or two has been, we're still going out and trying to hire people, just to answer that part of your question. It's difficult to find the people we want to hire, so we haven't been able to staff all the people we want. But the reason for our good expense control over the last couple of years has been some of the investments we made in the past in technology enabled us to exit higher cost delivery, whatever it was, higher cost ways of doing business as we've brought things in-house.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, great question, Janet. Let me kind of back up a little bit and tell you, you know, one of the primary reasons why we've been able to hold costs down in the last year or two has been, we're still going out and trying to hire people, just to answer that part of your question. It's difficult to find the people we want to hire, so we haven't been able to staff all the people we want. But the reason for our good expense control over the last couple of years has been some of the investments we made in the past in technology enabled us to exit higher cost delivery, whatever it was, higher cost ways of doing business as we've brought things in-house.
Speaker #6: Yeah, great question, Janet. Let me kind of back up a little bit and tell you, you know, one of the primary reasons why we've been able to hold costs down in the last year or two has been we're still going out and trying to hire people, just to answer that part of your question.
Speaker #6: It's difficult to find the people we want to hire. So, we haven't been able to staff all the people we want. But the reason for our good expense control over the last couple of years has been some of the investments we made in the past in technology enabled us to exit higher-cost delivery, whatever it was—higher-cost ways of doing business—as we've brought things in-house.
Speaker #6: And so, that's really been a huge help for us over the last couple of years, as we've terminated expensive vendor relationships and been able to take that in-house.
Bob Harrison: And so that's really been a huge help for us over the last couple of years as we've terminated expensive vendor relationships and been able to take that in-house. So our rate of growth has been increasing over the last couple of years, but it's been held down by our ability to reduce costs in other areas of our expense base. So as we go forward into 2026, we see that most of that we've captured; there'll still be a little bit of it, and we're going back to a little bit more of a normalized expense growth number.
And so that's really been a huge help for us over the last couple of years as we've terminated expensive vendor relationships and been able to take that in-house. So our rate of growth has been increasing over the last couple of years, but it's been held down by our ability to reduce costs in other areas of our expense base. So as we go forward into 2026, we see that most of that we've captured; there'll still be a little bit of it, and we're going back to a little bit more of a normalized expense growth number.
Speaker #6: So, our rate of growth has been increasing over the last couple of years, but it's been held down by our ability to reduce costs in other areas of our expense base.
Speaker #6: So, as we go forward into 2026, we see that most of what we've captured will still be a little bit of it, and we're going back to a little bit more of a normalized expense growth number.
Speaker #8: Got it. Thank you.
[Analyst] (TD Cowen): Got it. Thank you.
Janet Lee: Got it. Thank you.
Speaker #1: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kelly Matta with KBW. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kelly Motta with KBW. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Kelly Motta with KBW. Your line is open.
[Analyst] (KBW): Hi, good morning. Thanks for the question. On, on capital return in the buyback, you've been pretty diligent with executing the $100 million you'd had for 2025, and you noted the $250 million doesn't have any, you know, time period associated with it. I'm just wondering your appetite for continuing on at a similar pace here, and how you're thinking through that versus, some, some other maybe M&A aspects of, of the capital stack. Thank you.
Kelly Motta: Hi, good morning. Thanks for the question. On, on capital return in the buyback, you've been pretty diligent with executing the $100 million you'd had for 2025, and you noted the $250 million doesn't have any, you know, time period associated with it. I'm just wondering your appetite for continuing on at a similar pace here, and how you're thinking through that versus, some, some other maybe M&A aspects of, of the capital stack. Thank you.
Speaker #9: Hi, good morning. Thanks for the question. On capital return in the buyback, you've been pretty diligent with executing the $100 million you'd had for 2025, and you noted the $250 million doesn't have any time period.
Speaker #9: Associated with it, just wondering your appetite for continuing on at a similar pace here, and how you're thinking through that versus some other, maybe M&A aspects, of the capital.
Speaker #9: Thank you.
Jamie Moses: Thanks, Kelly. You know, I think that we have a pretty good appetite to continue the pace that we had set last year. You know, I think there always will be other considerations as well. You know, there will be some, you know, potentially some opportunism baked into the program that we've set out. You know, but we haven't really made any firm commitment, I would say, internally even, around exactly the pace and timing of the share buyback. Other than that, we recognize we have plenty of capital to do, you know, any number of things with.
Speaker #6: Thanks, Kelly. You know, I think that we have a pretty good appetite to continue the pace that we had set last year. You know, I think there always will be other considerations as well.
Jamie Moses: Thanks, Kelly. You know, I think that we have a pretty good appetite to continue the pace that we had set last year. You know, I think there always will be other considerations as well. You know, there will be some, you know, potentially some opportunism baked into the program that we've set out. You know, but we haven't really made any firm commitment, I would say, internally even, around exactly the pace and timing of the share buyback. Other than that, we recognize we have plenty of capital to do, you know, any number of things with.
Speaker #6: Some, you know, potentially some—You know, there will be opportunism baked into the program that we've set out. You know, but we haven't really made any firm commitments, I would say, internally even around exactly the pace and timing of the share buyback.
Speaker #6: Other than that, we recognize we have plenty of capital to do, you know, any number of things with. You know, I think that obviously organic growth is what we're really looking for.
Jamie Moses: You know, I think that, obviously, organic growth is what we're really looking for, and then the share buyback is a way for us to return some of that capital. So, I think it's kind of a, you know, it's kind of a combination of all the things that we're looking at, and that will determine that sort of pace.
You know, I think that, obviously, organic growth is what we're really looking for, and then the share buyback is a way for us to return some of that capital. So, I think it's kind of a, you know, it's kind of a combination of all the things that we're looking at, and that will determine that sort of pace.
Speaker #6: And then the share buyback is a way for us to return some of that capital. So, I think it's kind of a, you know, it's kind of a combination of all the things that we're looking at, and that will determine that sort of pace.
Bob Harrison: And just to add to Jamie's comments, you know, we've messaged for a couple of years now of a 12% CET1 target, and we're certainly well above that at 13+. So I think this larger buyback capacity, it's just an acknowledgment of that, and just gives us flexibility to, to bring it back closer to what we had targeted or what we had messaged in the past.
Speaker #3: And just to add to Jamie's comments, you know, we've messaged for a couple of years now of a 12% CET1 target, and we're certainly well above that at 13% plus.
Bob Harrison: And just to add to Jamie's comments, you know, we've messaged for a couple of years now of a 12% CET1 target, and we're certainly well above that at 13+. So I think this larger buyback capacity, it's just an acknowledgment of that, and just gives us flexibility to, to bring it back closer to what we had targeted or what we had messaged in the past.
Speaker #3: So, I think this larger buyback capacity is just an acknowledgment of that and just gives us flexibility for what we had messaged—to bring it back closer to what we had targeted.
Speaker #1: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Matthew Clark with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: open. Yeah, good
[Analyst] (Piper Sandler): Hey, good morning, everyone.
Matthew Clark: Hey, good morning, everyone.
Speaker #10: morning, everyone.
Speaker #3: Morning.
Jamie Moses: Morning.
Jamie Moses: Morning.
[Analyst] (Piper Sandler): Can we get the spot rate on deposits at the end of the year?
Matthew Clark: Can we get the spot rate on deposits at the end of the year?
Speaker #10: Can we get the spot rate on deposits at the end of the year?
Speaker #6: Spot rate on deposits at the end of the year, 1.24%, in December.
Jamie Moses: Spot rate on deposits at the end of the year, 124, in December.
Jamie Moses: Spot rate on deposits at the end of the year, 124, in December.
Speaker #10: Okay. In December or at the end of—
[Analyst] (Piper Sandler): Okay. In December or at the end of December?
Matthew Clark: Okay. In December or at the end of December?
Speaker #10: December? It
Jamie Moses: It was-
Jamie Moses: It was-
Speaker #6: It was December. I'm not sure my calculus is good enough to give you that derivative at the moment.
Bob Harrison: The month of December.
Bob Harrison: The month of December.
Jamie Moses: At December. I'm not sure my calculus is good enough to give you that derivative at the moment.
Jamie Moses: At December. I'm not sure my calculus is good enough to give you that derivative at the moment.
Speaker #10: Okay. Just wondering if it was lower at the end of the year. Okay. And then on the expenses, as for the first quarter, can you remind us how the seasonality works, whether or not it's more in the first quarter or second, or a combination of both?
[Analyst] (Piper Sandler): Okay. Just wondering if it was lower at the end of the year. Okay. And then on the, on expenses, as for the, you know, for the Q1, can you remind us how the seasonality works, whether or not it's more in the Q1 or Q2, or combination of both? Just trying to get a sense for the run rate to start the year.
Matthew Clark: Okay. Just wondering if it was lower at the end of the year. Okay. And then on the, on expenses, as for the, you know, for the Q1, can you remind us how the seasonality works, whether or not it's more in the Q1 or Q2, or combination of both? Just trying to get a sense for the run rate to start the year.
Speaker #10: Just trying to get a sense for the run rate. To start the
Speaker #10: year. Yeah.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, for the most part, the expenses are pretty flat throughout the year. We do see a pickup a little bit in the Q1. You can, you know, you can see that in our numbers last year and the year before, and they kind of decline a little bit from that. But in general, I think we're thinking about it pretty flat at the moment.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, for the most part, the expenses are pretty flat throughout the year. We do see a pickup a little bit in the Q1. You can, you know, you can see that in our numbers last year and the year before, and they kind of decline a little bit from that. But in general, I think we're thinking about it pretty flat at the moment.
Speaker #6: For the most part, the expenses are pretty flat throughout the year. We do see a pickup a little bit in the first quarter; you can see that in our numbers last year and the year before.
Speaker #6: And they kind of declined a little bit from that. But in general, I think we're thinking about it pretty flat at the moment.
Speaker #10: Okay, okay. And then just your updated thoughts on mainland M&A? Any discussions you've been having—whether or not things are more active? And maybe just remind us what your ideal target would look like?
[Analyst] (Piper Sandler): Okay. Okay. And then just your updated thoughts on mainland M&A. Any discussions you've been having, whether or not things are more active? And maybe just remind us what your ideal target would look like.
Matthew Clark: Okay. Okay. And then just your updated thoughts on mainland M&A. Any discussions you've been having, whether or not things are more active? And maybe just remind us what your ideal target would look like.
Speaker #6: Yeah, no, we're still, as Jamie mentioned, our focus is still on growing our core business, but it's still an option for us to consider for M&A.
Bob Harrison: Yeah. No, so as Jamie mentioned, our focus is still on growing our core business, but, you know, it's still an option for us to consider for M&A. Some of the things we've talked about in the past, just to reiterate, we'd be looking for a strong management team who will stick around to be good partners with us. Obviously, a disciplined lending culture, which is similar to the way we look at the business. Strong deposit franchise. And I guess it's a little more touchy-feely, but we want it well managed. We're not looking for a fixer-upper, if we were looking to partner with somebody. And just for location, West of the Rockies is more what we're familiar with as an organization and where we've had people on the ground and where we have had a lot of relationships already.
Bob Harrison: Yeah. No, so as Jamie mentioned, our focus is still on growing our core business, but, you know, it's still an option for us to consider for M&A. Some of the things we've talked about in the past, just to reiterate, we'd be looking for a strong management team who will stick around to be good partners with us. Obviously, a disciplined lending culture, which is similar to the way we look at the business. Strong deposit franchise. And I guess it's a little more touchy-feely, but we want it well managed. We're not looking for a fixer-upper, if we were looking to partner with somebody. And just for location, West of the Rockies is more what we're familiar with as an organization and where we've had people on the ground and where we have had a lot of relationships already.
Speaker #6: Some of the things we've talked about in the past, just to reiterate, we'd be looking for a strong management team who will stick around to be good partners with us.
Speaker #6: Obviously, a disciplined lending culture—which is similar to the way we look at the business—and a strong deposit franchise. And I guess it's a little more touchy-feely, but we want it well managed.
Speaker #6: We're not looking for a fixer-upper if we were looking to partner with somebody. And just for location, west of the Rockies is more what we're familiar with as an organization and where we've had people on the ground and where we have had a lot of relationships already.
Bob Harrison: As far as size, probably somewhere between $2 and 15 billion would be the range.
Speaker #6: And as far as size, probably somewhere between $2 million and $15 million would be the
As far as size, probably somewhere between $2 and 15 billion would be the range.
Speaker #10: Perfect.
Operator: Perfect. Thanks. Thanks again. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Anthony Elian with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Operator: Perfect. Thanks. Thanks again. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Anthony Elian with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Speaker #10: Thanks. Thanks range.
Speaker #10: Again, one moment for our next.
Speaker #1: Our next question comes from Anthony Elliott with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.
Speaker #11: Hi, everyone. On deposits—Jamie, how are you thinking about balances in Q1? If I look at your past couple of Q1s, you typically see a seasonal...
[Analyst] (J.P. Morgan): Hi, everyone. On deposits, Jamie, how are you thinking about balances in Q1? If I look at your past couple of Q1s, you typically see a seasonal decline.
Anthony Elian: Hi, everyone. On deposits, Jamie, how are you thinking about balances in Q1? If I look at your past couple of Q1s, you typically see a seasonal decline.
Speaker #11: decline. Yeah, I
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think that's, I think that's fair. Again, that's probably something that we, that we should expect in Q1. And then in totality, you know, throughout the year, I think, you know, we're, we're sort of mostly focused on what we can do with commercial and retail deposits. And so, you know, we're expecting kind of low single digits on that for the entire year. And then, you know, for us, it's tough in totality, the public deposits that we have to kind of fluctuate, generally speaking, quarter by quarter, week by week, even. But, you know, I think those in general, we should probably see some, you know, normal like state, like a GSP-type increase with those things. So, I think that's how we're thinking about balances.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think that's, I think that's fair. Again, that's probably something that we, that we should expect in Q1. And then in totality, you know, throughout the year, I think, you know, we're, we're sort of mostly focused on what we can do with commercial and retail deposits. And so, you know, we're expecting kind of low single digits on that for the entire year. And then, you know, for us, it's tough in totality, the public deposits that we have to kind of fluctuate, generally speaking, quarter by quarter, week by week, even. But, you know, I think those in general, we should probably see some, you know, normal like state, like a GSP-type increase with those things. So, I think that's how we're thinking about balances.
Speaker #6: I think that's fair. Again, that's probably something that we should expect in the first quarter. And then in totality, throughout the year, I think we're mostly focused on what we can do with commercial and retail deposits.
Speaker #6: And so we're expecting kind of low single digits on that for the entire year. And then for us, it's tough in totality. The public deposits that we have, they kind of fluctuate, generally speaking, quarter by quarter, week by week even.
Speaker #6: But I think those in general, we should probably see some normal state, like a GSP-type increase with those things. So I think that's how we're thinking about it.
Speaker #6: balances. Okay.
[Analyst] (J.P. Morgan): Okay. And then on the full year NIM guide of 3.16 to 3.18, so that's a pretty tight range.
Anthony Elian: Okay. And then on the full year NIM guide of 3.16 to 3.18, so that's a pretty tight range.
Speaker #11: And then on the full-year NIM guide of 3.16% to 3.18%, so that's a pretty tight range. Do you expect each quarter to be within that range this year?
Jamie Moses: Yeah.
Jamie Moses: Yeah.
[Analyst] (J.P. Morgan): Do you expect each quarter to be within that range this year? Thank you.
Anthony Elian: Do you expect each quarter to be within that range this year? Thank you.
Speaker #11: Thank
Speaker #11: you.
Jamie Moses: Probably, that's maybe taken a little too far. But, you know, I think it really will depend on the amount of rate cuts.
Jamie Moses: Probably, that's maybe taken a little too far. But, you know, I think it really will depend on the amount of rate cuts.
Speaker #6: Probably.
Speaker #6: That's maybe taking it a little too far. But I think it's going to, it really will depend on the amount of rate cuts that we see and the timing of those, and whether they're 25 or whether they're 50.
Bob Harrison: In time.
Bob Harrison: In time.
Jamie Moses: that we see and the timing of those, and whether they're 25 or whether they're 50. So, this contemplates sort of a May, September version of that. And so, you know, I guess that's how I'd answer it.
Jamie Moses: that we see and the timing of those, and whether they're 25 or whether they're 50. So, this contemplates sort of a May, September version of that. And so, you know, I guess that's how I'd answer it.
Speaker #6: So this contemplates sort of a May, September version of that. And so I guess that's how I'd answer.
Speaker #6: it. Any direction for
[Analyst] (J.P. Morgan): Any direction for the Q1 NIM, specifically relative to the 3.21 you printed for Q4? Thank you.
Anthony Elian: Any direction for the Q1 NIM, specifically relative to the 3.21 you printed for Q4? Thank you.
Speaker #11: The OneQ NIM specifically, relative to the 3.21% you printed for Q4?
Speaker #6: Yeah. I think we think it's going to come down a little bit. We had two rate cuts in the quarter, obviously, one in December.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think we think it's gonna come down a little bit. You know, we had two cuts, you know, two rate cuts in the quarter, obviously, one in December. So we think it's probably gonna come down a few basis points off of the December number.
Jamie Moses: Yeah, I think we think it's gonna come down a little bit. You know, we had two cuts, you know, two rate cuts in the quarter, obviously, one in December. So we think it's probably gonna come down a few basis points off of the December number.
Speaker #6: So we think it's probably going to come down a few basis points off of the December.
Speaker #6: number. Great.
[Analyst] (J.P. Morgan): Great. Thank you.
Anthony Elian: Great. Thank you.
Speaker #11: Thank
Speaker #11: you. One moment
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Operator: One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Timur Braziler with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: For our next question, our next question comes from Timmer Braziller with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Speaker #1: open.
Speaker #12: Hi, good
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Hi, good morning.
Timur Braziler: Hi, good morning.
Speaker #6: Good morning. morning.
Bob Harrison: Morning.
Bob Harrison: Morning.
Jamie Moses: Hey.
Jamie Moses: Hey.
Speaker #12: Hey. Maybe just going back to the loan growth and trying to bifurcate how much of it is expected to come from some of the increased draws on production in years past versus what the opportunity is to kind of re-engage on the mainland, with seemingly some better momentum starting there.
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Maybe just going back to the loan growth and trying to bifurcate how much of it is expected to come from some of the increased draws on production in years past, versus what the opportunity to kind of reengage on the mainland with seemingly some better momentum, starting there.
Timur Braziler: Maybe just going back to the loan growth and trying to bifurcate how much of it is expected to come from some of the increased draws on production in years past, versus what the opportunity to kind of reengage on the mainland with seemingly some better momentum, starting there.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, Timur, I'm not sure I 100 percent understand your question, but there has been, you know, for our existing lines, it's a little hard to predict with our larger corporate and commercial customers, exactly when an opportunity will come up that they need to fund versus their line versus a new production. We are seeing, while still continued activity here in Hawaii, for sure, and in Guam, you know, there's just a broader economic base on the West Coast where we operate, and there's a lot of opportunities up there. So we're continuing to pursue new dealer opportunities as well as commercial real estate opportunities on the mainland US, primarily on the West Coast. So I don't have a breakdown-
Bob Harrison: Yeah, Timur, I'm not sure I 100 percent understand your question, but there has been, you know, for our existing lines, it's a little hard to predict with our larger corporate and commercial customers, exactly when an opportunity will come up that they need to fund versus their line versus a new production. We are seeing, while still continued activity here in Hawaii, for sure, and in Guam, you know, there's just a broader economic base on the West Coast where we operate, and there's a lot of opportunities up there. So we're continuing to pursue new dealer opportunities as well as commercial real estate opportunities on the mainland US, primarily on the West Coast. So I don't have a breakdown-
Speaker #6: Yeah, Timmer, I'm not sure I 100% understand your question, but for our existing lines, it's a little hard to predict with our larger corporate and commercial customers exactly when an opportunity will come up that they need to fund versus their line versus a new production.
Speaker #6: We are seeing, while there's still continued activity here in Hawaii for sure and in Guam, there's just a broader economic base on the West Coast where we operate, and there's a lot of opportunities up there.
Speaker #6: So we're continuing to pursue new dealer opportunities as well as commercial real estate opportunities on the mainland US, primarily on the West Coast. So I don't have a breakdown for you, per se, but I guess that's broadly how we're looking at it.
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Yeah.
Timur Braziler: Yeah.
Bob Harrison: for you per se, but I guess that's broadly how we're looking at it.
Bob Harrison: for you per se, but I guess that's broadly how we're looking at it.
Speaker #12: Okay. Maybe another way of asking that—just if you can kind of frame the opportunity set of, I think you had mentioned the multifamily production that was booked 12, 18, 24 months ago that is going to start funding up—just how much of an opportunity that's going to be.
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Okay, maybe another way of asking that, just if you can kind of frame the opportunity set of... I think you had mentioned the multifamily production that was booked, you know, 12, 18, 24 months ago, that is gonna start funding up, just how much of an opportunity that's gonna be.
Timur Braziler: Okay, maybe another way of asking that, just if you can kind of frame the opportunity set of... I think you had mentioned the multifamily production that was booked, you know, 12, 18, 24 months ago, that is gonna start funding up, just how much of an opportunity that's gonna be.
Speaker #6: Yeah, I don't have that number handy, but we can look into that.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, I don't have that number handy, but we can look into that.
Bob Harrison: Yeah, I don't have that number handy, but we can look into that.
Speaker #12: Okay. And then during the prepared remarks, you had made a comment that you had a couple of construction deals that were converted to commercial real estate.
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Okay. And then during the prepared remarks, you had made a comment that you had a couple of construction deals that were converted to commercial real estate. I'm just wondering, is that pretty normal to have kind of the construction piece of it and then do the permanent financing in-house? Like, is that a pretty normal kind of continuation for you guys?
Timur Braziler: Okay. And then during the prepared remarks, you had made a comment that you had a couple of construction deals that were converted to commercial real estate. I'm just wondering, is that pretty normal to have kind of the construction piece of it and then do the permanent financing in-house? Like, is that a pretty normal kind of continuation for you guys?
Speaker #12: I'm just wondering, is it pretty normal to have the construction piece of it and then do the permanent financing in-house? Is that a pretty normal kind of continuation for you guys?
Speaker #12: I'm just wondering, is it pretty normal to have the construction piece of it and then do the permanent financing in-house? Is that a pretty normal kind of continuation for you?
Bob Harrison: It depends on the sector. You know, for customers kind of within the footprint, that is very normal. For the multifamily construction activity we're doing primarily in the mainland, on the West Coast, but it's not. And so it wasn't those deals, it was really more of our other customers within the footprint. So it really depends on the customer segment, if that's, quote, "normal or not.
Speaker #6: It depends on the sector. For customers kind of within the footprint, that is very normal. For the multifamily construction activity we're doing primarily in the mainland on the West Coast, it's not.
Bob Harrison: It depends on the sector. You know, for customers kind of within the footprint, that is very normal. For the multifamily construction activity we're doing primarily in the mainland, on the West Coast, but it's not. And so it wasn't those deals, it was really more of our other customers within the footprint. So it really depends on the customer segment, if that's, quote, "normal or not.
Speaker #6: And so it wasn't those deals. It was really more of our other customers within the footprint. So, it really depends on the customer segment, if that's "normal" or—
Speaker #12: Okay, got it. And then, just—the yields held up really well this quarter. I'm just wondering, is that kind of new production maybe offsetting some of the decline in the variable rate portfolio? Or maybe just kind of talk me through, internally, if you were maybe surprised, or if that was kind of an expected decline within the C&I book?
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Okay, got it. And then just last for me, the C&I yields held up really well this quarter. I'm just wondering, is that kind of new production maybe offsetting some of the decline in the variable rate portfolio? Or maybe just kind of talk me through internally if you were maybe surprised or that was kind of expected decline within the C&I book, because it seemed to hold up pretty well relative to the type of decline we saw, during the 2024 rate cutting cycle.
Timur Braziler: Okay, got it. And then just last for me, the C&I yields held up really well this quarter. I'm just wondering, is that kind of new production maybe offsetting some of the decline in the variable rate portfolio? Or maybe just kind of talk me through internally if you were maybe surprised or that was kind of expected decline within the C&I book, because it seemed to hold up pretty well relative to the type of decline we saw, during the 2024 rate cutting cycle.
Speaker #12: last for me, the C&I
Speaker #12: Because it seemed to hold up pretty well relative to the type of decline we saw during the 2024 rate-cutting.
Speaker #12: cycle. Well, I
Bob Harrison: I think a little bit... Well, I'm not, I don't have a perfect answer for you, but given that the draws were under lines, existing lines, so I think that speaks to why the rate, you know, the yield didn't change as much in the fourth quarter. I think if you go back to right when the pandemic happened, you had a lot of backup lines with very highly rated customers that just had lower pricing at the time. And so when they were drawing, that pricing structurally in those agreements was lower than more of our, quote, "normal base." But I'd need to do more analysis to make certain of that.
Speaker #6: Think a little bit. Well, I'm not a perfect answer for you, but given that the draws were under lines, existing lines, so I think that speaks to why the yield didn't change as much in the fourth quarter.
Bob Harrison: I think a little bit... Well, I'm not, I don't have a perfect answer for you, but given that the draws were under lines, existing lines, so I think that speaks to why the rate, you know, the yield didn't change as much in the fourth quarter. I think if you go back to right when the pandemic happened, you had a lot of backup lines with very highly rated customers that just had lower pricing at the time. And so when they were drawing, that pricing structurally in those agreements was lower than more of our, quote, "normal base." But I'd need to do more analysis to make certain of that.
Speaker #6: I think if you go back to right when the pandemic happened, you had a lot of backup lines with very highly rated customers that just had lower pricing.
Speaker #6: At the time, and so when they were drawing, that pricing structurally in those agreements was lower than more of our "normal base." But I'd need to do more analysis to make certain of that.
Speaker #12: Okay, no, that makes sense. Okay, thank you.
[Analyst] (Wells Fargo): Okay. No, that, that makes sense. Okay. Thank you.
Timur Braziler: Okay. No, that, that makes sense. Okay. Thank you.
Speaker #12: You. Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a
Operator: Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to Kevin for any further remarks.
Operator: Again, ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question or a comment at this time, please press star one one on your telephone. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I turn the call back over to Kevin for any further remarks.
Speaker #1: comment at this time, please press star 11 on your telephone. And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back over to Kevin for any further remarks.
Speaker #6: We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend.
Speaker #6: We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend.
Jamie Moses: We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend.
Kevin Hasegawa: We appreciate your interest in First Hawaiian, and please feel free to contact me if you have any additional questions. Thanks again for joining us, and have a good weekend.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a wonderful day.
