Q1 2026 Meritage Homes Corp Earnings Call
Speaker #1: To the first quarter 2026 Meritage Homes analyst call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session.
Speaker #1: Please be advised that today's conference is being assistance please press star zero. I would now like to turn the call over to Emily Togano VP of Investor Relations and External Communications.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our first quarter 2026 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed.
Speaker #2: You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our home page.
Speaker #2: Please refer to slide two cautioning you that our statements during this call as well as in the earnings release and accompanying slides contain forward-looking statements.
Speaker #2: Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management which are subject to change at any time and we assume no obligation to update them.
Speaker #2: Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain. Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors which we have identified and listed on this slide as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission specifically our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K.
Speaker #2: We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures.
Speaker #2: With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton Executive Chairman, Philippe Lord CEO, and Hila Sforza Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes.
Speaker #2: We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton.
Speaker #2: Steve?
Speaker #3: Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone joining today's call. Today I begin with a brief overview of market trends and highlight our first quarter results.
Speaker #3: Philippe will then discuss our strategy, provide an operational update. Finally, Hila will review our financial performance and share our 2026 forward-looking guidance. Entering 2026 we were cautiously optimistic that lower interest rates and pent-up demand would translate into a solid performance for home builders.
Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Q1 2026 Meritage Homes Analyst Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you should need operator assistance, please press star zero. I would now like to turn the call over to Emily Tadano, VP of Investor Relations and External Communications. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: Please stand by. Your meeting is about to begin. Greetings. And welcome to the first quarter 2026 Meritage Homes Analyst Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode.
Operator: Greetings, and welcome to the Q1 2026 Meritage Homes Analyst Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you should need operator assistance, please press star zero. I would now like to turn the call over to Emily Tadano, VP of Investor Relations and External Communications. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Balanced by more muted volatility as you well know a few weeks into the year many of our markets were impacted by a severe winter storm where sales activities were halted for several days.
Speaker #1: After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. If you should need operator assistance, please press star zero.
Speaker #3: As we were starting to recover from the lost days of sales military operations in Iran commenced at the end of February increasing interest rates price gas prices and inflation all of which negatively impacted consumer confidence.
Speaker #1: I would now like to turn the call over to Emily Tadano, VP of Investor Relations and External Communications. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Despite these challenges our first quarter 2026 sales orders totaled $3,664.5% below last year's first quarter as our slower absorption pace was almost fully offset by our increasing community count.
Emily Tadano: Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our Q1 2026 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com, or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our homepage. Please refer to slide 2 cautioning you that our statements during this call, as well as in the earnings release, and accompanying slides, contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them. Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain.
Emily Tadano: Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our Q1 2026 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed. You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com, or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our homepage. Please refer to slide 2 cautioning you that our statements during this call, as well as in the earnings release, and accompanying slides, contain forward-looking statements. Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them. Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain.
Speaker #2: Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to our analyst call to discuss our first quarter 2026 results. We issued the press release yesterday after the market closed.
Speaker #2: You can find it along with the slides we'll refer to during this call on our website at investors.meritagehomes.com or by selecting the Investor Relations link at the bottom of our homepage.
Speaker #3: While we still believe that long-term fundamentals for the home industry are strong we also acknowledge that the current market conditions are causing potential home buyers to hesitate and that capturing demand for the near term will require a higher than anticipated use of incentives.
Speaker #2: Please refer to slide 2, cautioning you that our statements during this call, as well as in the earnings release and accompanying slides, contain forward-looking statements.
Speaker #3: Looking to our operations our 60-day closing guarantee available supply of new completed spec inventory and year-over-year improved cycle times contribute to another quarter with exceptional backlog conversion rate of 254%.
Speaker #2: Those and any other projections represent the current opinions of management, which are subject to change at any time, and we assume no obligation to update them.
Speaker #2: Any forward-looking statements are inherently uncertain. Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2025 Annual Report on Form 10-K.
Emily Tadano: Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide, as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K. We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures. With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman, Phillippe Lord, CEO, and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes. We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?
Emily Tadano: Our actual results may be materially different than our expectations due to a wide variety of risk factors, which we have identified and listed on this slide, as well as in our earnings release and most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically our 2025 annual report on Form 10-K. We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures. With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman, Phillippe Lord, CEO, and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes. We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton. Steve?
Speaker #3: We delivered 2,967 homes and home closing revenue of $1.1 billion this quarter however the slower start to the spring selling season and the increased incentives resulted in home closing gross margin of 17.5% and delivered EPS of $82 a share.
Speaker #2: We have also provided a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures referred to in our earnings release as compared to their closest related GAAP measures.
Speaker #3: As of March 31, 2026 our book value per share increased 6% year-over-year. And with that I'll now turn it over to Philippe.
Speaker #2: With us today to discuss our results are Steve Hilton, Executive Chairman; Phillippe Lord, CEO; and Hilla Sferruzza, Executive Vice President and CFO of Meritage Homes.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Steve. Given the current uncertainty in the macro climate I am proud of the Meritage team for navigating these choppy waters. We started the year with $336 active communities which we then grew to $345 by March 31.
Speaker #2: We expect today's call to last about an hour. A replay will be available on our website later today. I'll now turn it over to Mr. Hilton.
Speaker #4: Another company record. In the near term we expect total volume and top line results will largely be driven by increased community count not higher per store absorptions.
Speaker #2: Steve?
Steven J. Hilton: Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone joining today's call. Today, I begin with a brief overview of market trends and highlight our Q1 results. Philippe will then discuss our strategy and provide an operational update. Finally, Hilla will review our financial performance and share our 2026 forward-looking guidance. Entering 2026, we were cautiously optimistic the lower interest rates and pent-up demand would translate into a solid performance for home builders, balanced by more muted volatility. As you well know, a few weeks into the year, many of our markets were impacted by a severe winter storm where sales activities were halted for several days. As we were starting to recover from the lost days of sales, military operations in Iran commenced. At the end of February, increasing interest rates, gas prices, and inflation, all of which negatively impacted consumer confidence.
Steve Hilton: Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone joining today's call. Today, I begin with a brief overview of market trends and highlight our Q1 results. Philippe will then discuss our strategy and provide an operational update. Finally, Hilla will review our financial performance and share our 2026 forward-looking guidance. Entering 2026, we were cautiously optimistic the lower interest rates and pent-up demand would translate into a solid performance for home builders, balanced by more muted volatility. As you well know, a few weeks into the year, many of our markets were impacted by a severe winter storm where sales activities were halted for several days. As we were starting to recover from the lost days of sales, military operations in Iran commenced. At the end of February, increasing interest rates, gas prices, and inflation, all of which negatively impacted consumer confidence.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Emily. Welcome to everyone joining today's call. Today, I begin with a brief overview of market trends and highlight our first quarter results.
Speaker #4: Our first quarter 2026 ending community count of 345 was up 19% year-over-year compared to 290 at March 31, 2025 and up 3% sequentially compared to 336 at December 31, 2025.
Speaker #3: Phillippe will then discuss our strategy, provide an operational update. Finally, Hilla will review our financial performance and share our 2026 forward-looking guidance. Entering 2026, we are cautiously optimistic that lower interest rates and pent-up demand would translate into a solid performance for homebuilders.
Speaker #4: During the quarter we brought on 40 new communities throughout all of our regions. We reiterate our expectations of 5 to 10% full-year community count growth for 2026.
Speaker #3: Balanced by more muted volatility, as you well know, a few weeks into the year, many of our markets were impacted by a severe winter storm where sales activities were halted for several days.
Speaker #4: We continue to lean into our strategy in this competitive market. Through our 60-day closing guarantee moving ready homes and strong real-term engagement we offer certainty and consistency to our customers.
Speaker #3: As we were starting to recover from the lost days of sales, military operations in Iran commenced, and at the end of February, increasing interest rates pushed gas prices and inflation higher.
Speaker #4: Despite the current headwinds that Steve mentioned we believe that long-term demand remains supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes in the US and when demand normalizes our strategy and increased store count will provide a competitive advantage and allow us to increase our market share.
Speaker #3: All of which negatively impacted consumer confidence. Despite these challenges, our first quarter 2026 sales orders totaled $3,664.5% below last year's first quarter, as our slower absorption pace was almost fully offset by our increasing community count.
Steven J. Hilton: Despite these challenges, our Q1 2026 sales orders totaled 3,664, 5% below last year's Q1, as our slower absorption pace was almost fully offset by our increase in community count. While we still believe that long-term fundamentals for the home industry are strong, we also acknowledge that the current market conditions are causing potential home buyers to hesitate, and that capturing demand for the near term will require higher than anticipated use of incentives. Looking to our operations, our 60-day closing guarantee, available supply of new completed spec inventory, and year-over-year improved cycle times contribute to another quarter with exceptional backlog conversion rate of 254%. We delivered 2,967 homes and home closing revenue of $1.1 billion this quarter. However, the slower start to the spring selling season and the increased incentives resulted in home closing gross margin of 17.5% and a diluted EPS of $0.82 a share.
Steve Hilton: Despite these challenges, our Q1 2026 sales orders totaled 3,664, 5% below last year's Q1, as our slower absorption pace was almost fully offset by our increase in community count. While we still believe that long-term fundamentals for the home industry are strong, we also acknowledge that the current market conditions are causing potential home buyers to hesitate, and that capturing demand for the near term will require higher than anticipated use of incentives. Looking to our operations, our 60-day closing guarantee, available supply of new completed spec inventory, and year-over-year improved cycle times contribute to another quarter with exceptional backlog conversion rate of 254%. We delivered 2,967 homes and home closing revenue of $1.1 billion this quarter. However, the slower start to the spring selling season and the increased incentives resulted in home closing gross margin of 17.5% and a diluted EPS of $0.82 a share.
Speaker #4: In volatile times we believe keeping a strong balance sheet and a critical focus on capital allocation will place us on a solid footing when the market stabilizes.
Speaker #3: While we still believe that long-term fundamentals for the home industry are strong, we also acknowledge that the current market conditions are causing potential homebuyers to hesitate and that capturing demand for the near term will require a higher than anticipated use of incentives.
Speaker #4: Once again we intentionally stepped up our share buybacks repurchasing 130 million worth of common shares in Q1. Which was above our previously announced target of $100 million in quarterly programmatic spend in 2026.
Speaker #4: Taking advantage of the significant discount to intrinsic value for our share price. Additionally we increased our dividend 12% to 48 cents per share. We will continue to seek balance between growth and shareholder returns given the current market backdrop.
Speaker #3: Looking to our operations, our 60-day closing guarantee available supply of new completed spec inventory and year-over-year improved cycle times contribute to another quarter with exceptional backlog conversion rate of 254%.
Speaker #4: Now turning to slide four. First quarter 2026 orders were 5% lower year-over-year primarily due to an 18% decline in average absorption pace which was mostly offset by a 17% increase in average community count.
Speaker #3: We delivered 2,967 homes and home closing revenue of $1.1 billion this quarter, however, the slower start to the spring selling season and the increased incentives resulted in home closing gross margin of 17.5% and a diluted EPS of 82 cents a share.
Speaker #4: The cancellation rate of 11% remained slightly below the historical average of mid to high teens as we benefit from a quick sale to close process.
Speaker #4: Our first quarter 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6 compared to 4.4 in the prior year. This quarter we again committed to finding the right balance between velocity and margin in the current macroeconomic environment and did not pursue foreign net sales per month where community level market dynamics would not support it.
Steven J. Hilton: As of 31 March 2026, our book value per share increased 6% year over year. With that, I'll now turn it over to Phillippe.
Steve Hilton: As of 31 March 2026, our book value per share increased 6% year over year. With that, I'll now turn it over to Phillippe.
Speaker #3: As of March 31, 2026, our book value per share increased 6% year over year. And with that, I'll now turn it over to Phillippe.
Phillippe Lord: Thank you, Steve. Given the current uncertainty in the macro climate, I am proud of the Meritage team for navigating these choppy waters. We started the year with 336 active communities, which we then grew to 345 by 31 March, another company record. In the near term, we expect total volume and top-line results will largely be driven by increased community count, not higher per store absorptions. Our Q1 2026 ending community count of 345 was up 19% year over year, compared to 290 at 31 March 2025, and up 3% sequentially compared to 336 at 31 December 2025. During the quarter, we brought on 40 new communities throughout all of our regions. We reiterate our expectations of 5% to 10% full year community count growth for 2026. We continue to lean into our strategy in this competitive market.
Phillippe Lord: Thank you, Steve. Given the current uncertainty in the macro climate, I am proud of the Meritage team for navigating these choppy waters. We started the year with 336 active communities, which we then grew to 345 by 31 March, another company record. In the near term, we expect total volume and top-line results will largely be driven by increased community count, not higher per store absorptions. Our Q1 2026 ending community count of 345 was up 19% year over year, compared to 290 at 31 March 2025, and up 3% sequentially compared to 336 at 31 December 2025. During the quarter, we brought on 40 new communities throughout all of our regions. We reiterate our expectations of 5% to 10% full year community count growth for 2026. We continue to lean into our strategy in this competitive market.
Speaker #4: Thank you, Steve. Given the current uncertainty in the macro climate, I am proud of the Meritage team for navigating these choppy waters. We started the year with 336 active communities, which we then grew to 345 by March 31.
Speaker #4: While other long-term while over the long term we strive to be a foreign net sales per month in all markets as we believe we best leverage our fixed costs at that volume in geographies where demand is meaningfully inelastic due to affordability or competitive tensions we moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land.
Speaker #4: Another company record. In the near term, we expect total volume and top-line results will largely be driven by increased community count, not higher per-store absorptions.
Speaker #4: Our first quarter 2026 ending community count of 345 was up 19% year over year, compared to 290 at March 31, 2025, and up 3% sequentially compared to 336 at December 31, 2025.
Speaker #4: ASP on orders this quarter of $382,000 was down 5% from prior year due to an increased use of incentives and discounts as well as geographical mix shifting from the higher ASP west region into the lower ASP east region.
Speaker #4: During the quarter, we brought on 40 new communities throughout all of our regions. We reiterate our expectations of 5 to 10 percent full-year community count growth for 2026.
Speaker #4: We saw a nice uptick in March even though it wasn't quite as strong as typical spring selling season. After a slow start April is feeling the same as March.
Speaker #4: Consumer psychology remains fragile and can be driven by daily news announcements. But we still believe that pent-up demand will materialize once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
Speaker #4: We continue to lean into our strategy in this competitive market. Through our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in ready homes, and strong realtor engagement, we offer certainty and consistency to our customers.
Phillippe Lord: Through our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready homes, and strong realtor engagement, we offer certainty and consistency to our customers. Despite the current headwinds that Steve mentioned, we believe that long-term demand remains supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes in the US. When demand normalizes, our strategy and increased store count will provide a competitive advantage and allow us to increase our market share. In volatile times, we believe keeping a strong balance sheet and a critical focus on capital allocation will place us on a solid footing when the market stabilizes. Once again, we intentionally stepped up our share buybacks, repurchasing $130 million worth of common shares in Q1, which was above our previously announced target of $100 million in quarterly programmatic spend in 2026, taking advantage of the significant discount to intrinsic value for our share price.
Phillippe Lord: Through our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready homes, and strong realtor engagement, we offer certainty and consistency to our customers. Despite the current headwinds that Steve mentioned, we believe that long-term demand remains supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes in the US. When demand normalizes, our strategy and increased store count will provide a competitive advantage and allow us to increase our market share. In volatile times, we believe keeping a strong balance sheet and a critical focus on capital allocation will place us on a solid footing when the market stabilizes. Once again, we intentionally stepped up our share buybacks, repurchasing $130 million worth of common shares in Q1, which was above our previously announced target of $100 million in quarterly programmatic spend in 2026, taking advantage of the significant discount to intrinsic value for our share price.
Speaker #4: Moving to the regional level trends on slide five. As always sales performance was driven by local marketing conditions in the first quarter. While all markets required additional incentives in some markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix consumer demand was comparatively more elastic where incremental volume was achievable with only small incremental incentives.
Speaker #4: Despite the current headwinds that Steve mentioned, we believe that long-term demand remains supported by favorable demographics and an undersupply of affordable homes in the US and when demand normalizes, our strategy and increased store count will provide a competitive advantage and allow us to increase our market share.
Speaker #4: Meanwhile other markets such as Austin, parts of Florida, and Charlotte continue to be tougher selling environments. Turning to slide six. We've been right-sizing our starts pace and WIP inventory to align with our faster cycle times.
Speaker #4: In volatile times, we believe keeping a strong balance sheet and a critical focus on capital allocation will place us on a solid footing when the market stabilizes.
Speaker #4: Once again, we intentionally stepped up our share buybacks, repurchasing 130 million worth of common shares in Q1, which was above our previously announced target of 100 million in quarterly programmatic spend in 2026.
Speaker #4: We maintained a sub-110 calendar day construction schedule for the four straight quarter. Allowing us to carry less home inventory without constraining availability to meet consumer demand and preferences.
Speaker #4: In Q1 we moderated start to approximately 2,500 homes 30% less than last year's Q1 and 6% lower than Q4. We traditionally align our starts pace with our sales pace.
Speaker #4: Taking advantage of the significant discount to intrinsic value for our share price. Additionally, we increased our dividend 12% to 48 cents per share. We will continue to seek balance between growth and shareholder returns, given the current market backdrop.
Phillippe Lord: Additionally, we increased our dividend 12% to $0.48 per share. We will continue to seek balance between growth and shareholder returns given the current market backdrop. Now turning to slide four. Q1 2026 orders were 5% lower year over year, primarily due to an 18% decline in average absorption pace, which was mostly offset by a 17% increase in average community count. The cancellation rate of 11% remains slightly below the historical average of mid to high teens as we benefit from a quick sale to close process. Our Q1 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6, compared to 4.4 in the prior year. This quarter, we again committed to finding the right balance between velocity and margin in the current macroeconomic environment and did not pursue four net sales per month where community-level market dynamics would not support it.
Phillippe Lord: Additionally, we increased our dividend 12% to $0.48 per share. We will continue to seek balance between growth and shareholder returns given the current market backdrop. Now turning to slide four. Q1 2026 orders were 5% lower year over year, primarily due to an 18% decline in average absorption pace, which was mostly offset by a 17% increase in average community count. The cancellation rate of 11% remains slightly below the historical average of mid to high teens as we benefit from a quick sale to close process. Our Q1 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6, compared to 4.4 in the prior year. This quarter, we again committed to finding the right balance between velocity and margin in the current macroeconomic environment and did not pursue four net sales per month where community-level market dynamics would not support it.
Speaker #4: But due to faster cycle times and the need to work through some inventory in certain locations we reduced our starts pace this quarter. We expect our go-forward starts pace to more closely align with our sales expectations as we progress throughout the year.
Speaker #4: Now turning to slide four. First quarter 2026 orders were 5% lower year over year, primarily due to an 18% decline in average absorption pace, which was mostly offset by a 17% increase in average community count.
Speaker #4: With nearly 70% of Q1 closings also sold during this quarter our backlog conversion rate was 254%. As a result our ending backlog declined 7% year-over-year from approximately 2,000 as of March 31, 2025 to approximately 1,900 homes as of March 31, 2026.
Speaker #4: The cancellation rate of 11% remains slightly below the historical average of mid to high teens, as we benefit from a quick sale-to-close process. Our first quarter 2026 average absorption pace was 3.6 compared to 4.4 in the prior year.
Speaker #4: We reiterate our long-term backlog conversion target of 175 to 200% as we expect to carry fewer finished specs in the future. Internally we look at our inventory as the combined total specs and backlog.
Speaker #4: This quarter, we again committed to finding the right balance between velocity and margin, and the current macroeconomic environment, and did not pursue foreign net sales per month where community-level market dynamics would not support it.
Phillippe Lord: While over the long term, we strive to be 4 net sales per month in all markets, as we believe we best leverage our fixed costs at that volume, in geographies where demand is meaningfully inelastic due to affordability or competitive tensions, we moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land. ASP on orders this quarter of $382,000 was down 5% from prior year due to an increased use of incentives and discounts, as well as geographical mix shifting from the higher ASP west region into the lower ASP east region. We saw a nice uptick in March, even though it wasn't quite as strong as typical spring selling season. After a slow start, April is feeling the same as March.
Phillippe Lord: While over the long term, we strive to be 4 net sales per month in all markets, as we believe we best leverage our fixed costs at that volume, in geographies where demand is meaningfully inelastic due to affordability or competitive tensions, we moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land. ASP on orders this quarter of $382,000 was down 5% from prior year due to an increased use of incentives and discounts, as well as geographical mix shifting from the higher ASP west region into the lower ASP east region. We saw a nice uptick in March, even though it wasn't quite as strong as typical spring selling season. After a slow start, April is feeling the same as March.
Speaker #4: While other long-term while over the long term, we strive to be a foreign net sales per month in all markets, as we believe we best leverage our fixed costs at that volume, and geographies where demand is meaningfully inelastic due to affordability or competitive tensions, we moderated our pace to avoid further deterioration to margins to ensure we are optimizing the underlying value of our land.
Speaker #4: Because more than half of our deliveries consistently come from inter-quarter sales since we began our new strategy six quarters ago. We had around 6,600 spec and backlog units at March 31, 2026 25% less than the approximate 8,800 units we had at March 31, 2025.
Speaker #4: We ended the quarter with approximately 4,700 spec homes down 30% from approximately 6,800 specs in the prior year and down 19% sequentially from Q4.
Speaker #4: ASP on orders this quarter of $382,000 was down 5% from the prior year due to an increased use of incentives and discounts, as well as a geographical shift from the higher ASP West region into the lower ASP East region.
Speaker #4: The 14 specs per store this quarter was our fewest level lowest level since early 2022. But appropriately aligned with our current absorption targets. This translated to a little under four months supply intentionally at the low end of target of four to six months supply specs due to the slower demand expectations and improved cycle times.
Speaker #4: We saw a nice uptick in March, even though it wasn't quite as strong as typical spring selling season. After a slow start, April is feeling the same as March.
Phillippe Lord: Consumer psychology remains fragile and can be driven by daily news announcements, but we still believe that pent-up demand will materialize once macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Moving to the regional level trends on slide 5. As always, sales performance was driven by local market conditions in Q1. While all markets required additional incentives, in some markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix, consumer demand was comparatively more elastic, where incremental volume was achievable with only small incremental incentives. Meanwhile, other markets such as Austin, parts of Florida, and Charlotte continue to be tougher selling environments. Turning to slide 6. We've been right-sizing our starts pace and WIP inventory to align with our faster cycle times. We maintained a sub-110 calendar day construction schedule for the fourth straight quarter, allowing us to carry less home inventory without constraining availability to meet consumer demand and preferences.
Phillippe Lord: Consumer psychology remains fragile and can be driven by daily news announcements, but we still believe that pent-up demand will materialize once macroeconomic conditions stabilize. Moving to the regional level trends on slide 5. As always, sales performance was driven by local market conditions in Q1. While all markets required additional incentives, in some markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix, consumer demand was comparatively more elastic, where incremental volume was achievable with only small incremental incentives. Meanwhile, other markets such as Austin, parts of Florida, and Charlotte continue to be tougher selling environments. Turning to slide 6. We've been right-sizing our starts pace and WIP inventory to align with our faster cycle times. We maintained a sub-110 calendar day construction schedule for the fourth straight quarter, allowing us to carry less home inventory without constraining availability to meet consumer demand and preferences.
Speaker #4: Consumer psychology remains fragile and can be driven by daily news announcements, but we still believe that pent-up demand will materialize once macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
Speaker #4: Comparatively in the first quarter of 2025 we had 23 specs per store or five months of supply. Although our completed specs units decreased 70% year-over-year our completed specs as a percent of total specs were 46% at March 31, 2026 down from 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Speaker #4: Moving to the regional-level trends on slide five. As always, sales performance was driven by local marketing conditions in the first quarter. While all markets required additional incentives, in some markets such as Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix, consumer demand was comparatively more elastic, where incremental volume was achievable with only small incremental incentives.
Speaker #4: Still above our target of approximately one-third completed specs. We will continue to focus on bringing this ratio down in Q2. With that I will now turn it over to Hila to walk through our financial results.
Speaker #4: Meanwhile, other markets such as Austin, parts of Florida, and Charlotte continue to be tougher selling environments. Turning to slide six. We have been right-sizing our starts pace and WIP inventory to align with our faster cycle times.
Speaker #3: Thank you Philippe. Let's turn to slide seven. And cover our Q1 results in more detail. First quarter 2026 home closing revenue of $1.1 billion was 17% lower than prior year due to 13% lower closing volume and a 5% decrease in ASP on closings reflecting the tougher demand environment this quarter.
Speaker #4: We maintained a sub-110-calendar-day construction schedule for the four straight quarters, allowing us to carry less home inventory without constraining availability to meet consumer demand and preferences.
Speaker #3: As Philippe noted with nearly 70% closings also sold in the current quarter the events impacting Q1 performance are already mostly reflected in our P&L.
Phillippe Lord: In Q1, we moderated starts to approximately 2,500 homes, 30% less than last year's Q1 and 6% lower than Q4. We traditionally align our starts pace with our sales pace, but due to faster cycle times and the need to work through some inventory in certain locations, we reduced our starts pace this quarter. We expect our go-forward starts pace to more closely align with our sales expectations as we progress throughout the year. With nearly 70% of Q1 closings also sold during this quarter, our backlog conversion rate was 254%. As a result, our ending backlog declined 7% year over year from approximately 2,000 as of 31 March 2025, to approximately 1,900 homes as of 31 March 2026. We reiterate our long-term backlog conversion target of 175% to 200% as we expect to carry fewer finished specs in the future.
Phillippe Lord: In Q1, we moderated starts to approximately 2,500 homes, 30% less than last year's Q1 and 6% lower than Q4. We traditionally align our starts pace with our sales pace, but due to faster cycle times and the need to work through some inventory in certain locations, we reduced our starts pace this quarter. We expect our go-forward starts pace to more closely align with our sales expectations as we progress throughout the year. With nearly 70% of Q1 closings also sold during this quarter, our backlog conversion rate was 254%. As a result, our ending backlog declined 7% year over year from approximately 2,000 as of 31 March 2025, to approximately 1,900 homes as of 31 March 2026. We reiterate our long-term backlog conversion target of 175% to 200% as we expect to carry fewer finished specs in the future.
Speaker #4: In Q1, we moderated starts to approximately 2,500 homes, 30% less than last year's Q1 and 6% lower than Q4. We traditionally align our starts pace with our sales pace, but due to faster cycle times and the need to work through some inventory in certain locations, we reduced our starts pace this quarter.
Speaker #3: While our closings and revenue reflect our intentional decision to limit incremental incentives and focus on both margin and pace overall ASP on closings was still impacted by the increased use of incentives as well as the geographic mix shift towards the east region.
Speaker #4: We expect our go-forward starts pace to more closely align with our sales expectations as we progress throughout the year. With nearly 70% of Q1 closings also sold during this quarter, our backlog conversion rate was 254%.
Speaker #3: Home closing gross margin of 17.5% for the quarter was $400 bps lower than prior year's 22% as a result of increased use of incentives higher lot costs and lost leverage all of which were partially offset by improved direct costs decreased compensation expense and faster cycle times.
Speaker #4: As a result, our ending backlog declined 7% year over year, from approximately 2,000 as of March 31, 2025, to approximately 1,900 homes as of March 31, 2026.
Speaker #3: First quarter 2026 home closing gross margin included 2.4 million of real estate inventory impairments and 1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges compared to no impairments and 1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges in the prior year.
Speaker #4: We reiterate our long-term backlog conversion target of 175 to 200 percent, as we expect to carry fewer finished specs in the future. Internally, we look at our inventory as the combined total of specs and backlog.
Phillippe Lord: Internally, we look at our inventory as the combined total of specs and backlog, because more than half of our deliveries consistently come from inter-quarter sales since we began our new strategy six quarters ago. We had around 6,600 spec and backlog units at 31 March 2026, 25% less than the approximate 8,800 units we had at 31 March 2025. We ended the quarter with approximately 4,700 spec homes, down 30% from approximately 6,800 specs in the prior year and down 19% sequentially from Q4. The 14 specs per store this quarter was our lowest level since early 2022, but appropriately aligned with our current absorption targets. This translated to a little under four months supply, intentionally at the low end of target of four to six months supply specs due to the slower demand expectations and improved cycle times.
Phillippe Lord: Internally, we look at our inventory as the combined total of specs and backlog, because more than half of our deliveries consistently come from inter-quarter sales since we began our new strategy six quarters ago. We had around 6,600 spec and backlog units at 31 March 2026, 25% less than the approximate 8,800 units we had at 31 March 2025. We ended the quarter with approximately 4,700 spec homes, down 30% from approximately 6,800 specs in the prior year and down 19% sequentially from Q4. The 14 specs per store this quarter was our lowest level since early 2022, but appropriately aligned with our current absorption targets. This translated to a little under four months supply, intentionally at the low end of target of four to six months supply specs due to the slower demand expectations and improved cycle times.
Speaker #3: Coupled with about 20 bps from lost leverage on anticipated higher closing revenue these impairments also impacted margins by about 30 bps. Our current land basis is primarily comprised of higher cost land vintages from 2022 through 2024 and will continue to negatively impact margin in 2026.
Speaker #4: Because more than half of our deliveries consistently come from inter-quarter sales since we began our new strategy six quarters ago. We had around 6,600 spec and backlog units at March 31, 2026, 25% less than the approximately 8,800 units we had at March 31, 2025.
Speaker #3: Based on what we're seeing in the market today we expect some margin relief will start at the tail end of 2027 due to some lower land basis and land development costs we have recently started to experience.
Speaker #4: We ended the quarter with approximately 4,700 spec homes, down 30% from approximately 6,800 specs in the prior year, and down 19% sequentially from Q4.
Speaker #3: In Q1 we had direct cost savings of nearly 5% per square foot on a year-over-year basis as we were able to float of the income statement the lower costs from our extensive vendor negotiations.
Speaker #4: The 14 specs per store this quarter was our fewest level, lowest level since early 2022, but appropriately aligned with our current absorption targets. This translated to a little under four months' supply intentionally at the low end of target of four to six months' supply of specs due to the slower demand expectations and improved cycle times.
Speaker #3: However lumber costs have started to trend higher this quarter and as a result of the Iran conflict we are monitoring any potential long-term inflationary impact on oil prices.
Phillippe Lord: Comparatively, in Q1 2025, we had 23 specs per store or five months of supply. Although our completed specs units decreased 17% year over year, our completed specs as a percent of total specs were 46% at 31 March 2026, down from 50% in Q4 2025, still above our target of approximately one-third completed specs. We will continue to focus on bringing this ratio down in Q2. With that, I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results.
Phillippe Lord: Comparatively, in Q1 2025, we had 23 specs per store or five months of supply. Although our completed specs units decreased 17% year over year, our completed specs as a percent of total specs were 46% at 31 March 2026, down from 50% in Q4 2025, still above our target of approximately one-third completed specs. We will continue to focus on bringing this ratio down in Q2. With that, I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results.
Speaker #4: Comparatively, in the first quarter of 2025, we had 23 specs per store, or five months of supply. Although our completed specs units decreased 77% year over year, our completed specs as a percent of total specs were 46% at March 31, 2026, down from 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Speaker #3: Although we do not anticipate a notable material gross margin impact this year our long-term gross margin target remains at 22.5 to 23.5% in a normalized market when incentives and interest rates stabilize near historical averages.
Speaker #3: SG&A as a percentage of home closing revenue in the first quarter of 2026 was 11.8% compared to 11.3% for the first quarter of 2025 despite curtailing discretionary spend.
Speaker #4: We're still above our target of approximately one-third completed specs. We will continue to focus on bringing this ratio down in Q2. With that, I will now turn it over to Hilla to walk through our financial results.
Speaker #3: Although SG&A dollars declined year-over-year we lost leverage on lower home closing revenue and had to spend more sales and marketing dollars to earn each sale.
Hilla Sferruzza: Thank you, Phillippe. Let's turn to slide seven and cover our Q1 results in more detail. Q1 2026 home closing revenue of $1.1 billion was 17% lower than prior year due to 13% lower closing volume and a 5% decrease in ASP on closings, reflecting the tougher demand environment this quarter. As Phillippe noted, with nearly 70% closings also sold in the current quarter, the events impacting Q1 performance are already mostly reflected in our P&L. While our closings and revenue reflects our intentional decision to limit incremental incentives and focus on both margin and pace, overall ASP on closings was still impacted by the increased use of incentives, as well as the geographic mix shift towards the east region.
Hilla Sferruzza: Thank you, Phillippe. Let's turn to slide seven and cover our Q1 results in more detail. Q1 2026 home closing revenue of $1.1 billion was 17% lower than prior year due to 13% lower closing volume and a 5% decrease in ASP on closings, reflecting the tougher demand environment this quarter. As Phillippe noted, with nearly 70% closings also sold in the current quarter, the events impacting Q1 performance are already mostly reflected in our P&L. While our closings and revenue reflects our intentional decision to limit incremental incentives and focus on both margin and pace, overall ASP on closings was still impacted by the increased use of incentives, as well as the geographic mix shift towards the east region.
Speaker #1: Thank you, Philippe. Let's turn to slide seven and cover our Q1 results in more detail. First quarter 2026 home closing revenue of $1.1 billion was 17% lower than the prior year due to 13% lower closing volume and a 5% decrease in ASP on closings, reflecting the tougher demand environment this quarter.
Speaker #3: As we look specifically at external commission costs we believe our strategic focus on partnering with the external broker is a key driver to our success.
Speaker #3: Our broker relationships remain strong with co-broke percentages consistently at the low 90% range and a healthy percentage of our total sales volume generated by repeat sales from our realtors all while maintaining our external broker commission cost relatively flat as a percentage of home closing revenue year-over-year.
Speaker #1: As Philippe noted, with nearly 70% closings also sold in the current quarter, the events impacting Q1 performance are already mostly reflected in our P&L.
Speaker #1: While our closings and revenue reflect our intentional decision to limit incremental incentives and focus on both margin and pace, overall ASP on closings was still impacted by the increased use of incentives, as well as the geographic mix shift towards the East region.
Speaker #3: With our continued investment in technology we are driving long-term improvement through back office automation. This will position us to operate more efficiently as closing volumes increase supporting our continued commitment to a long-term SG&A target of 9.5%.
Hilla Sferruzza: Home closing gross margin of 17.5% for the quarter was 400 bps lower than prior year's 22%, as a result of increased use of incentives, higher lot costs, and lost leverage, all of which were partially offset by improved direct costs, decreased compensation expense, and faster cycle times. Q1 2026 home closing gross margin included $2.4 million of real estate inventory impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges, compared to no impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges in the prior year. Coupled with about 20 bps from lost leverage, unanticipated higher closing revenue, these impairments also impacted margins by about 30 bps. Our current land basis is primarily comprised of higher cost land vintages from 2022 through 2024 and will continue to negatively impact margin in 2026.
Hilla Sferruzza: Home closing gross margin of 17.5% for the quarter was 400 bps lower than prior year's 22%, as a result of increased use of incentives, higher lot costs, and lost leverage, all of which were partially offset by improved direct costs, decreased compensation expense, and faster cycle times. Q1 2026 home closing gross margin included $2.4 million of real estate inventory impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges, compared to no impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges in the prior year. Coupled with about 20 bps from lost leverage, unanticipated higher closing revenue, these impairments also impacted margins by about 30 bps. Our current land basis is primarily comprised of higher cost land vintages from 2022 through 2024 and will continue to negatively impact margin in 2026.
Speaker #1: Home closing gross margin of 17.5% for the quarter was $400 bps lower than prior year's 22% as a result of increased use of incentives, higher lot costs, and lost leverage, all of which were partially offset by improved direct costs, decreased compensation expense, and faster cycle times.
Speaker #3: The first quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.7% this year compared to 23.3% for the first quarter of 2025. We expect a minimal impact in the second half of 2026 after the elimination of the energy tax credit program at June 30 as our eligibility for such credits was significantly reduced starting in 2025 when the higher construction thresholds went into effect.
Speaker #1: First quarter 2026 home closing gross margin included $2.4 million of real estate inventory impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges, compared to no impairments and $1.4 million in terminated land deal walkaway charges in the prior year.
Speaker #3: Overall lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to a 51% year-over-year decrease in first quarter 2026 diluted EPS to 82 cents from $1.69 in 2025.
Speaker #1: Coupled with about 20 bps from lost leverage unanticipated higher closing revenue, these impairments also impacted margins by about 30 bps. Our current land basis is primarily comprised of higher-cost land vintages from 2022 through 2024, and will continue to negatively impact margin in 2026.
Speaker #3: Before we move on to the balance sheet I wanted to cover our customers' first quarter credit metrics. As expected FICO scores DTIs and LTVs remain consistent with our historical averages despite market volatility we haven't seen much movement in these metrics over the last year or two validating our belief that hesitation in the market is at least partially a psychological decision versus a purely financial one.
Hilla Sferruzza: Based on what we're seeing in the market today, we expect some margin relief will start at the tail end of 2027 due to some lower land basis and land development costs we have recently started to experience. In Q1, we had direct cost savings of nearly 5% per square foot on a year-over-year basis, as we were able to flow to the income statement the lower costs from our extensive vendor negotiations. However, lumber costs have started to trend higher this quarter, and as a result of the Iran conflict, we are monitoring any potential long-term inflationary impact on oil prices. Although we do not anticipate a notable material gross margin impact this year, our long-term gross margin target remains at 22.5% to 23.5% in a normalized market when incentives and interest rates stabilize near historical averages.
Hilla Sferruzza: Based on what we're seeing in the market today, we expect some margin relief will start at the tail end of 2027 due to some lower land basis and land development costs we have recently started to experience. In Q1, we had direct cost savings of nearly 5% per square foot on a year-over-year basis, as we were able to flow to the income statement the lower costs from our extensive vendor negotiations. However, lumber costs have started to trend higher this quarter, and as a result of the Iran conflict, we are monitoring any potential long-term inflationary impact on oil prices. Although we do not anticipate a notable material gross margin impact this year, our long-term gross margin target remains at 22.5% to 23.5% in a normalized market when incentives and interest rates stabilize near historical averages.
Speaker #1: Based on what we're seeing in the market today, we expect some margin relief will start at the tail end of 2027 due to some lower land basis and land development costs we have recently started to experience.
Speaker #1: In Q1, we had direct cost savings of nearly 5% per square foot on a year-over-year basis, as we were able to float to the income statement the lower costs from our extensive vendor negotiations.
Speaker #3: On to slide eight. Our balance sheet remains healthy at March 31, 2026 with cash of $767 million nothing drawn under our credit facility and a net debt to cap of 17.4%.
Speaker #1: However, lumber costs have started to trend higher this quarter, and as a result of the Iran conflict, we are monitoring any potential long-term inflationary impact on oil prices.
Speaker #3: As a reminder the ceiling for our net debt to cap ratio remains in the mid 20% range. As we've been more selective with land deals and timing of land development our land spend was down 30% year-over-year this quarter totaling $326 million in Q1.
Speaker #1: Although we do not anticipate a notable material gross margin impact this year, our long-term gross margin target remains at 22.5% to 23.5% in a normalized market when incentives and interest rates stabilize near historical averages.
Speaker #3: Given current market conditions we are reiterating our forecasted land acquisition and development spend of up to $2 billion in 2026. We returned $162 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends this quarter up from $76 million in the same period last year.
Hilla Sferruzza: SG&A, as a percentage of home closing revenue in Q1 2026, was 11.8%, compared to 11.3% for Q1 2025, despite curtailing discretionary spend. Although SG&A dollars declined year over year, we lost leverage on lower home closing revenue and had to spend more sales and marketing dollars to earn each sale. As we look specifically at external commission costs, we believe our strategic focus on partnering with the external broker is a key driver to our success. Our broker relationships remain strong, with co-broke percentages consistently in the low 90% range and a healthy percentage of our total sales volume generated by repeat sales from our realtors, all while maintaining our external broker commission cost relatively flat as a percentage of home closing revenue year over year. With our continued investment in technology, we are driving long-term improvement through back-office automation.
Hilla Sferruzza: SG&A, as a percentage of home closing revenue in Q1 2026, was 11.8%, compared to 11.3% for Q1 2025, despite curtailing discretionary spend. Although SG&A dollars declined year over year, we lost leverage on lower home closing revenue and had to spend more sales and marketing dollars to earn each sale. As we look specifically at external commission costs, we believe our strategic focus on partnering with the external broker is a key driver to our success. Our broker relationships remain strong, with co-broke percentages consistently in the low 90% range and a healthy percentage of our total sales volume generated by repeat sales from our realtors, all while maintaining our external broker commission cost relatively flat as a percentage of home closing revenue year over year. With our continued investment in technology, we are driving long-term improvement through back-office automation.
Speaker #1: SG&A, as a percentage of home closing revenue in the first quarter of 2026, was 11.8% compared to 11.3% for the first quarter of 2025, despite curtailing discretionary spend.
Speaker #3: We bought back over $1.8 million shares in the first quarter or 2.7% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year for $130 million.
Speaker #1: Although SG&A dollars declined year over year, we lost leverage on lower home closing revenue and had to spend more sales and marketing dollars to earn each sale.
Speaker #3: Nearly three times more than Q1 of 2025 as we believe this was the right use of our cash under current market conditions. We repurchased the shares this quarter at an average 6% discount to book value.
Speaker #1: As we look specifically at external commission costs, we believe our strategic focus on partnering with the external broker is a key driver to our success.
Speaker #1: Our broker relationships remain strong, with co-broke percentages consistently at the low 90% range and a healthy percentage of our total sales volume generated by repeat sales from our realtors, all while maintaining our external broker commission cost relatively flat as a percentage of home closing revenue year over year.
Speaker #3: With $384 million remaining available under the repurchase program we reiterate our plan to programmatically bind back $100 million in shares for each remaining quarter in 2026 assuming no additional material market shifts.
Speaker #3: We increased our quarterly cash dividend 12% year-over-year to $48 cents per share in 2026 from $43 cents per share in 2025. Our cash dividend this quarter totaled $32 million for the first quarter of 2026 the $162 million of capital we returned to shareholders was $295% of our quarterly earnings.
Speaker #1: With our continued investment in technology, we are driving long-term improvement through back-office automation. This will position us to operate more efficiently as closing volumes increase, supporting our continued commitment to a long-term SG&A target of 9.5%.
Hilla Sferruzza: This will position us to operate more efficiently as closing volumes increase, supporting our continued commitment to a long-term SG&A target of 9.5%. The first quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.7% this year, compared to 23.3% for Q1 2025. We expect a minimal impact in H2 2026 after the elimination of the energy tax credit program at 30 June, as our eligibility for such credits was significantly reduced starting in 2025, when the higher construction thresholds went into effect. Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to a 51% year-over-year decrease in Q1 2026 diluted EPS to $0.82 from $1.69 in 2025. Before we move on to the balance sheet, I wanted to cover our customers' Q1 credit metrics. As expected, FICO scores, DTIs, and LTVs remain consistent with our historical averages.
Hilla Sferruzza: This will position us to operate more efficiently as closing volumes increase, supporting our continued commitment to a long-term SG&A target of 9.5%. The first quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.7% this year, compared to 23.3% for Q1 2025. We expect a minimal impact in H2 2026 after the elimination of the energy tax credit program at 30 June, as our eligibility for such credits was significantly reduced starting in 2025, when the higher construction thresholds went into effect. Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit led to a 51% year-over-year decrease in Q1 2026 diluted EPS to $0.82 from $1.69 in 2025. Before we move on to the balance sheet, I wanted to cover our customers' Q1 credit metrics. As expected, FICO scores, DTIs, and LTVs remain consistent with our historical averages.
Speaker #3: Slide nine. In the first quarter of 2026 we secured almost $400 net new lots under control which included the impact at about $850. Terminated lots.
Speaker #1: The first quarter's effective income tax rate was 23.7% this year, compared to 23.3% for the first quarter of 2025. We expect a minimal impact in the second half of 2026 after the elimination of the energy tax credit program at June 30, as our eligibility for such credits was significantly reduced starting in 2025 when the higher construction thresholds went into effect.
Speaker #3: In the first quarter of 2025 we put nearly $2,200 net new lots under control. As of March 31, 2026 we owned or controlled a total of about $75,500 lots.
Speaker #3: Equating to $5.2 year supply of the last 12 months closing. In today's market conditions we believe that this is the right amount of the needed year supply of lots to meet our gross targets.
Speaker #1: Overall, lower home closing revenue and gross profit, led to a 51% year-over-year decrease in first quarter 2026 diluted EPS to 82 cents from $1.69 in 2025.
Speaker #3: We also had approximately $14,600 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the quarter which is another potential one-year supply in a pipeline that we can choose to control.
Speaker #1: Before we move on to the balance sheet, I wanted to cover our customers' first quarter credit metrics. As expected, FICO scores, DTIs, and LTVs remain consistent with our historical averages.
Speaker #3: When it comes to financing land purchases we target around 40% option lots. About 70% of our total lot inventory at March 31, 2026 was owned and 30% options compared to prior year where we had a 62% owned inventory and a 38% option lot position.
Hilla Sferruzza: Despite market volatility, we haven't seen much movement in these metrics over the last year or two, validating our belief that hesitation in the market is at least partially a psychological decision versus a purely financial one. On to slide eight. Our balance sheet remains healthy at 31 March 2026, with cash of $767 million, nothing drawn under our credit facility, and a net debt to cap of 17.4%. As a reminder, the ceiling for our net debt to cap ratio remains in the mid 20% range. As we've been more selective with land deals and timing of land development, our land spend was down 30% year-over-year this quarter, totaling $326 million in Q1. Given current market conditions, we are reiterating our forecasted land acquisition and development spend of up to $2 billion in 2026.
Hilla Sferruzza: Despite market volatility, we haven't seen much movement in these metrics over the last year or two, validating our belief that hesitation in the market is at least partially a psychological decision versus a purely financial one. On to slide eight. Our balance sheet remains healthy at 31 March 2026, with cash of $767 million, nothing drawn under our credit facility, and a net debt to cap of 17.4%. As a reminder, the ceiling for our net debt to cap ratio remains in the mid 20% range. As we've been more selective with land deals and timing of land development, our land spend was down 30% year-over-year this quarter, totaling $326 million in Q1. Given current market conditions, we are reiterating our forecasted land acquisition and development spend of up to $2 billion in 2026.
Speaker #1: Despite market volatility, we haven't seen much movement in these metrics over the last year or two, validating our belief that hesitation in the market is at least partially a psychological decision versus a purely financial one.
Speaker #3: As we shift more land to off-balance sheet we are doing so very slowly and cautiously remaining hyper-focused on margin and IRR and only considering land deals with sufficient margin to absorb the additional cost as we do not believe that all or most land today belongs off-book.
Speaker #1: On to slide eight. Our balance sheet remains healthy at March 31, 2026, with cash of $767 million, nothing drawn under our credit facility, and a net debt to cap of $17.4%.
Speaker #3: While we have set 40% as our initial off-book target our actual percentage will be solely driven higher or lower by the underlying financial metrics of each deal and its ability to appropriately bear the burden of the incremental cost.
Speaker #1: As a reminder, the ceiling for our net debt to cap ratio remains in the mid-20% range. As we've been more selective with land deals and timing of land development, our land spend was down 30% year over year this quarter totaling $326 million, in Q1.
Speaker #3: Finally I'll direct you to slide 10. Based on current market conditions we are updating 2026 home closing volume and revenue to at or within 5% of full year 2025 results.
Speaker #1: Given current market conditions, we are reiterating our forecasted land acquisition and development spend of up to $2 billion in 2026. We returned $162 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends this quarter, up from $76 million in the same period last year.
Speaker #3: For Q2 2026 we are projecting total home closings between 3650 and 3,900 units home closing revenue of $1.37 to $1.47 billion home closing gross margin around 18% and effective tax rate of 24.5 to 25% and diluted EPS in the range of $1.18 to $1.46.
Hilla Sferruzza: We returned $162 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends this quarter, up from $76 million in the same period last year. We bought back over 1.8 million shares in Q1, or 2.7% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year for $130 million, nearly three times more than Q1 of 2025, as we believe this was the right use of our cash under current market conditions. We repurchased the shares this quarter at an average 6% discount to book value. With $384 million remaining available under the repurchase program, we reiterate our plan to programmatically buy back $100 million in shares for each remaining quarter in 2026, assuming no additional material market shifts. We increased our quarterly cash dividend 12% year-over-year to $0.48 per share in 2026 from $0.43 per share in 2025. Our cash dividend this quarter totaled $32 million.
Hilla Sferruzza: We returned $162 million of capital to shareholders via buybacks and dividends this quarter, up from $76 million in the same period last year. We bought back over 1.8 million shares in Q1, or 2.7% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year for $130 million, nearly three times more than Q1 of 2025, as we believe this was the right use of our cash under current market conditions. We repurchased the shares this quarter at an average 6% discount to book value. With $384 million remaining available under the repurchase program, we reiterate our plan to programmatically buy back $100 million in shares for each remaining quarter in 2026, assuming no additional material market shifts. We increased our quarterly cash dividend 12% year-over-year to $0.48 per share in 2026 from $0.43 per share in 2025. Our cash dividend this quarter totaled $32 million.
Speaker #1: We bought back over $1.8 million shares in the first quarter, or $2.7% of shares outstanding at the beginning of the year, for $130 million.
Speaker #1: Nearly three times more than Q1 of 2025, as we believe this was the right use of our cash under current market conditions. We repurchased the shares this quarter at an average 6% discount to book value.
Speaker #3: With that I'll turn it back over to Philippe.
Speaker #1: Thank you Hewa. In closing please turn. Slide 11. Before we conclude it's worth reinforcing what sets Merit apart. We are a top five home builder focused on spec building that is supported by streamline operations.
Speaker #1: With $384 million remaining, available under the repurchase program, we reiterate our plan to programmatically buy back $100 million in shares for each remaining quarter in 2026, assuming no additional material market shifts.
Speaker #1: Our go-to-market strategy differences from peers and is anchored on three tenets. Our 60-day closing guarantee move-in ready inventory and strong realtor engagement. Together who we are and how we operate give us a competitive advantage.
Speaker #1: We increased our quarterly cash dividend 12% year over year to $48 per share in 2026 from $43 per share in 2025. Our cash dividend this quarter totaled $32 million.
Speaker #1: In the entry-level space to provide home buyers certainty and consistency. Amid today's market backdrop our priorities are central on balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation.
Hilla Sferruzza: For Q1 2026, the $162 million of capital we returned to shareholders was 295% of our quarterly earnings. Slide nine. In Q1 2026, we secured almost 400 net new lots under control, which included the impact of about 850 terminated lots. In Q1 2025, we put nearly 2,200 net new lots under control. As of 31 March 2026, we owned or controlled a total of about 75,500 lots, equating to 5.2 year supply of the last 12 months closings. In today's market conditions, we believe that this is the right amount of the needed year supply of lots to meet our growth targets. We also had approximately 14,600 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the quarter, which is another potential one-year supply in the pipeline that we can choose to control.
Hilla Sferruzza: For Q1 2026, the $162 million of capital we returned to shareholders was 295% of our quarterly earnings. Slide nine. In Q1 2026, we secured almost 400 net new lots under control, which included the impact of about 850 terminated lots. In Q1 2025, we put nearly 2,200 net new lots under control. As of 31 March 2026, we owned or controlled a total of about 75,500 lots, equating to 5.2 year supply of the last 12 months closings. In today's market conditions, we believe that this is the right amount of the needed year supply of lots to meet our growth targets. We also had approximately 14,600 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the quarter, which is another potential one-year supply in the pipeline that we can choose to control.
Speaker #1: For the first quarter of 2026, the $162 million of capital we returned to shareholders was 295% of our quarterly earnings. Slide nine. In the first quarter of 2026, we secured almost 400 net new lots under control, which included the impact of about 850 terminated lots.
Speaker #1: We are maintaining a low net to cap and structuring land deals off-balance sheet where appropriate. This approach gives us flexibility to moderate land spend and accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and dividends.
Speaker #1: When we compare our strategy with our growing community account faster cycle times and a disciplined cash commitment framework we believe Merit is as well positioned to capture incremental market share as demand conditions improve and normalize and to continue creating long-term shareholder value.
Speaker #1: In the first quarter of 2025, we put nearly $2,200 net new lots under control. As of March 31, 2026, we owned or controlled a total of about 75,500 lots, equating to 5.2-year supply of the last 12 months closings.
Speaker #1: With that I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator.
Speaker #1: In today's market conditions, we believe that this is the right amount of the needed year supply of lots to meet our gross targets. We also had approximately 14,600 lots that were still undergoing diligence at the end of the quarter, which is another potential one-year supply in the pipeline that we can choose to control.
Speaker #3: Thank you. To ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad. If you want to remove yourself from the queue please press star two.
Speaker #3: In the interest of time we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Though others can hear your questions clearly we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality.
Hilla Sferruzza: When it comes to financing land purchases, we target around 40% option lots. About 70% of our total lot inventory at 31 March 2026 was owned and 30% optioned compared to prior year where we had a 62% owned inventory and a 38% option lot position. As we shift more land to off balance sheet, we are doing so very slowly and cautiously, remaining hyper-focused on margin and IRR, and only considering land deals with sufficient margin to absorb the additional cost, as we do not believe that all or most land to date belongs off book. While we have set 40% as our initial off-book target, our actual percentage will be solely driven higher or lower by the underlying financial metrics of each deal and its ability to appropriately bear the burden of the incremental cost. Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10.
Hilla Sferruzza: When it comes to financing land purchases, we target around 40% option lots. About 70% of our total lot inventory at 31 March 2026 was owned and 30% optioned compared to prior year where we had a 62% owned inventory and a 38% option lot position. As we shift more land to off balance sheet, we are doing so very slowly and cautiously, remaining hyper-focused on margin and IRR, and only considering land deals with sufficient margin to absorb the additional cost, as we do not believe that all or most land to date belongs off book. While we have set 40% as our initial off-book target, our actual percentage will be solely driven higher or lower by the underlying financial metrics of each deal and its ability to appropriately bear the burden of the incremental cost. Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10.
Speaker #1: When it comes to financing land purchases, we target around 40% option lots, about 70% of our total lot inventory at March 31, 2026, was owned, and 30% optioned compared to prior year where we had a 62% owned inventory and a 38% option lot position.
Speaker #3: We'll take our first question from Trevor Allison with Wolf Research. Your line is now open.
Speaker #4: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one's on your spec count which you noted is the lowest it's been in several years.
Speaker #4: I think we've heard other builders talk about a reduction in specs across the industry helping it take some pressure off of margins here. So appreciating you guys operate a spec model.
Speaker #1: As we shift more land to off-balance sheet, we are doing so very slowly and cautiously, remaining hyper-focused on margin and IRR, and only considering land deals with sufficient margin to absorb the additional cost, as we do not believe that all or most land today belongs off-book.
Speaker #4: Are you seeing both your lower spec count and also kind of industry lower spec counts ease the margin pressure here and is that something you expect to be supportive of margins moving forward even if demand remains choppy?
Speaker #1: While we have set 40% as our initial off-book target, our actual percentage will be solely driven higher or lower by the underlying financial metrics of each deal and its ability to appropriately bear the burden of the incremental cost.
Speaker #1: Yeah. Thanks Trevor. I think that's absolutely the condition we're seeing. A lot of builders are either pivoting away from carrying as much inventory finished inventory as they did before during COVID and the supply chain environment and they're moving to reduced finished inventory selling homes earlier in cycle.
Speaker #1: Finally, I'll direct you to slide 10. Based on current market conditions, we are updating our guidance for full-year 2026 home closing volume and revenue to at or within 5% of full-year 2025 results.
Hilla Sferruzza: Based on current market conditions, we are updating our guidance for full year 2026 home closing volume and revenue to at, or within 5% of full year 2025 results. For Q2 2026, we are projecting total home closings between 3,650 and 3,900 units, home closing revenue of $1.37 to $1.47 billion, home closing gross margin around 18%, an effective tax rate of 24.5% to 25%, and diluted EPS in the range of $1.18 to $1.46. With that, I'll turn it back over to Phillippe.
Hilla Sferruzza: Based on current market conditions, we are updating our guidance for full year 2026 home closing volume and revenue to at, or within 5% of full year 2025 results. For Q2 2026, we are projecting total home closings between 3,650 and 3,900 units, home closing revenue of $1.37 to $1.47 billion, home closing gross margin around 18%, an effective tax rate of 24.5% to 25%, and diluted EPS in the range of $1.18 to $1.46. With that, I'll turn it back over to Phillippe.
Speaker #1: And then some folks are pivoting more to a BTO model which is clearing out a lot of inventory in the market. So I think we saw across all of our markets less finished inventory that we were competing with and we're optimistic as we move throughout the year that that creates a better environment for margin stability on a go-forward basis.
Speaker #1: For Q2 2026, we are projecting total home closings between 3,650 and 3,900 units, home closing revenue of $1.37 to $1.47 billion, home closing gross margin around 18%, and an effective tax rate of 24.5 to 25%, and diluted EPS in the range of $1.18 to $1.46.
Speaker #1: Specifically for our strategy where we are focused on continuing to build specs and carry them to a later stage.
Speaker #1: With that, I'll turn it back over to Philippe.
Phillippe Lord: Thank you, Hilla. In closing, please turn to slide 11. Before we conclude, it's worth reinforcing what sets Meritage apart. We are a top five home builder focused on spec building that is supported by streamlined operations. Our go-to-market strategy differentiates from peers and is anchored on three tenets. Our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready inventory, and strong realtor engagement. Together, who we are and how we operate give us a competitive advantage in the entry-level space to provide homebuyers certainty and consistency. Amid today's market backdrop, our priorities are centered on balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation. We are maintaining a low net debt to cap and structuring land deals off balance sheet where appropriate.
Phillippe Lord: Thank you, Hilla. In closing, please turn to slide 11. Before we conclude, it's worth reinforcing what sets Meritage apart. We are a top five home builder focused on spec building that is supported by streamlined operations. Our go-to-market strategy differentiates from peers and is anchored on three tenets. Our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready inventory, and strong realtor engagement. Together, who we are and how we operate give us a competitive advantage in the entry-level space to provide homebuyers certainty and consistency. Amid today's market backdrop, our priorities are centered on balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation. We are maintaining a low net debt to cap and structuring land deals off balance sheet where appropriate.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Hilla. In closing, please turn to slide 11. Before we conclude, it's worth reinforcing what sets Meritage apart. We are a top-five home builder focused on spec building, that is supported by streamlined operations.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thanks absolutely. Very helpful. And then second one you guys talked about your off-balance sheet portfolio can you talk about what portion of that portfolio is held by land banks versus more traditional land options or other structures and then.
Speaker #4: Any detail on how those agreements are structured with an eye on your ability to walk away and then just generally your view on use of land banks moving forward for your off-balance sheet needs.
Speaker #2: Our go-to-market strategy differentiates us from peers and is anchored on three tenets: our 60-day closing guarantee, move-in-ready inventory, and strong realtor engagement. Together, who we are and how we operate give us a competitive advantage.
Speaker #4: Thanks.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I can take that one. So about 38% of our total inventory controlled is off-book. Of that about a third is with land bankers.
Speaker #2: In the entry-level space, to provide home buyers certainty and consistency. Amid today's market backdrop, our priorities are central on balance sheet strength and disciplined capital allocation.
Speaker #3: So all in only about 10% of our total land supply is with traditional land bankers at this point in time. As far as structure we don't cross-collateralize.
Speaker #2: We are maintaining a low net debt to cap and structuring land deals off-balance sheet where appropriate. This approach gives us flexibility to moderate land spend and accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and dividends.
Phillippe Lord: This approach gives us flexibility to moderate land spend and accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and dividends. When we pair our strategy with our growing community count, faster cycle times, and a disciplined cash commitment framework, we believe Meritage is well-positioned to capture incremental market share as demand conditions improve and normalize, and to continue creating long-term shareholder value. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?
Phillippe Lord: This approach gives us flexibility to moderate land spend and accelerate the return of capital to shareholders through a combination of share buybacks and dividends. When we pair our strategy with our growing community count, faster cycle times, and a disciplined cash commitment framework, we believe Meritage is well-positioned to capture incremental market share as demand conditions improve and normalize, and to continue creating long-term shareholder value. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?
Speaker #3: So we always have the ability if any deal goes sideways to walk away from that deal without maybe some other hooks and implications that would make us stay in a.
Speaker #3: A transaction that doesn't structurally work or financially work any longer. So we're very cautious from that perspective. So the only thing at risk for us would be the deposit and any other ancillary costs.
Speaker #2: When we compare our strategy with our growing community count, faster cycle times, and a disciplined cash commitment framework, we believe Meritage is well positioned to capture incremental market share as demand conditions improve and normalize.
Speaker #2: And to continue creating long-term shareholder value. With that, I will now turn the call over to the operator for instructions on the Q&A. Operator?
Speaker #1: And the only thing I would add is that as Hewa said it's a very small percentage with true lot financing but because it's not cross-collateralized I think working through those deals on a one-by-one basis is much easier.
Operator: Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad. If you want to remove yourself from the queue, please press star two. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality. We'll take our first question from Trevor Allinson with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Operator: Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone keypad. If you want to remove yourself from the queue, please press star two. In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality. We'll take our first question from Trevor Allinson with Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.
Speaker #3: Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press *1 on your telephone keypad. If you want to remove yourself from the queue, please press *2.
Speaker #1: We have had some scenarios where we've gone back to our land bank financers and asked for some more time to stabilize the market stabilize our inventory levels and again working on one deal it creates more of an opportunity to do so.
Speaker #3: In the interest of time, we ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. So others can hear your questions clearly, we ask that you pick up your handset for best sound quality.
Speaker #3: Yeah. And I think we addressed this in our prepared remarks. Because we're very selective at the get-go as to what deals even go off-book they typically have a little bit of breathing room on the margin versus having arbitrary targets where we're forcing deals off-book to hit a percentage.
Speaker #3: We'll take our first question from Trevor Allison with Wolf Research. Your line is now open.
Trevor Allinson: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one's on your spec count, which you noted is the lowest it's been in several years. I think we've heard other builders talk about a reduction in specs across the industry, helping take some pressure off of margins here. Appreciating you guys operate a spec model, are you seeing both your lower spec count and also kind of industry lower spec counts ease the margin pressure here? Is that something you'd expect to be supportive of margins moving forward, even if demand remains choppy?
Trevor Allinson: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one's on your spec count, which you noted is the lowest it's been in several years. I think we've heard other builders talk about a reduction in specs across the industry, helping take some pressure off of margins here. Appreciating you guys operate a spec model, are you seeing both your lower spec count and also kind of industry lower spec counts ease the margin pressure here? Is that something you'd expect to be supportive of margins moving forward, even if demand remains choppy?
Speaker #4: Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. First one's on your spec count, which you noted is the lowest it's been in several years.
Speaker #4: I think we've heard other builders talk about a reduction in specs across the industry, helping it take some pressure off of margins here. So appreciating you guys operate a spec model.
Speaker #3: So for us the ability to work with our partners our off-book partners is pretty high since they understand the transaction and see the margin profile and are willing to work with us on terms if we need them.
Speaker #4: Are you seeing both your lower spec count and also kind of industry lower spec counts ease to margin pressure here? And is that something you expect to be supportive of margins moving forward, even if demand remains choppy?
Speaker #4: Very helpful. Thanks for all the color and good luck moving forward.
Speaker #3: Thank you.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. Thanks, Trevor. I think that's absolutely the condition we're seeing. A lot of builders are either pivoting away from carrying as much inventory, finished inventory, as they did before during COVID and the supply chain environment. They're moving to reduce finished inventory, selling homes earlier in cycle. Some folks are pivoting more to a BTO model, which is clearing out a lot of inventory in the market. I think we saw across all of our markets, less finished inventory that we were competing with. We're optimistic as we move throughout the year that that creates a better environment for margin stability on a go-forward basis, specifically for our strategy, where we are focused on continuing to build specs and carry them to a later stage.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. Thanks, Trevor. I think that's absolutely the condition we're seeing. A lot of builders are either pivoting away from carrying as much inventory, finished inventory, as they did before during COVID and the supply chain environment. They're moving to reduce finished inventory, selling homes earlier in cycle. Some folks are pivoting more to a BTO model, which is clearing out a lot of inventory in the market. I think we saw across all of our markets, less finished inventory that we were competing with. We're optimistic as we move throughout the year that that creates a better environment for margin stability on a go-forward basis, specifically for our strategy, where we are focused on continuing to build specs and carry them to a later stage.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Our next question comes from ISI. Your line is now open.
Speaker #2: Yeah. Thanks, Trevor. I think that's absolutely the condition we're seeing. A lot of builders are either pivoting away from carrying as much inventory finished inventory as they did before during COVID and the supply chain.
Speaker #5: Yeah. Thanks very much guys. Appreciate it. If I could follow up on the land bank question can you give us a sense for roughly what percent of your land bank deals you've extended your takedown schedules and am I right in thinking that in a typical land bank deal any individual land bank deal is you extend let's say six months that that might drive roughly 100 basis point lower gross margin on the remaining lots versus the initial expected lot price?
Speaker #2: Environment, and they're moving to reduced finished inventory, selling homes earlier in cycle. And then some folks are pivoting more to a BTO model, which is clearing out a lot of inventory in the market.
Speaker #2: So I think we saw across all of our markets less finished inventory that we were competing with. And we're optimistic as we move throughout the year that that creates a better environment for margin stability on a go-forward basis specifically for our strategy where we are focused on continuing to build specs and carry them to later stage.
Speaker #1: Thanks Stephen. So first part again we have such a small percentage of our land book is land bank with lot financing so even as you look at what percent of our deals require us to restructure.
Trevor Allinson: Okay. Thanks, that's really very helpful. Second one, you guys talked about your off-balance sheet portfolio. Can you talk about what portion of that portfolio is held by land banks versus more traditional land options or other structures? Any detail on how those agreements are structured with an eye on your ability to walk away, and then just generally your view on use of land banks moving forward for your off-balance sheet needs. Thanks.
Trevor Allinson: Okay. Thanks, that's really very helpful. Second one, you guys talked about your off-balance sheet portfolio. Can you talk about what portion of that portfolio is held by land banks versus more traditional land options or other structures? Any detail on how those agreements are structured with an eye on your ability to walk away, and then just generally your view on use of land banks moving forward for your off-balance sheet needs. Thanks.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thanks, Seth. Very helpful. And then second one, you guys talked about your off-balance sheet portfolio. Can you talk about what portion of that portfolio is held by land banks versus more traditional land options or other structures?
Speaker #1: And when I say restructure maybe we needed a quarter delay in the next take to buy our buy some time to get through some inventory or stabilize kind of margins or whatnot.
Speaker #4: And then any detail on how those agreements are structured, with an eye on your ability to walk away, and then just generally your view on use of land banks moving forward for your off-balance sheet needs.
Speaker #1: For the most part that was very small as well. Most of our deals are performing fine. We're continuing to take lots down and we're moving through the inventory as we planned.
Speaker #4: Thanks.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, I can take that one. About 38% of our total inventory controlled is off-book. Of that, about a third is with land bankers. All in, only about 10% of our total land supply is with traditional land bankers at this point in time. As far as structure, we don't cross-collateralize, so we always have the ability, if any deal goes sideways, to walk away from that deal without maybe some other hooks and implications that would make us stay in a transaction that doesn't structurally work or financially work any longer. We're very cautious from that perspective. The only thing at risk for us would be the deposit and any other ancillary costs.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, I can take that one. About 38% of our total inventory controlled is off-book. Of that, about a third is with land bankers. All in, only about 10% of our total land supply is with traditional land bankers at this point in time. As far as structure, we don't cross-collateralize, so we always have the ability, if any deal goes sideways, to walk away from that deal without maybe some other hooks and implications that would make us stay in a transaction that doesn't structurally work or financially work any longer. We're very cautious from that perspective. The only thing at risk for us would be the deposit and any other ancillary costs.
Speaker #5: Yeah. I can take that one. So about 38% of our total inventory controlled is off-book. Of that, about a third is with land bankers.
Speaker #1: As far as your other question I think it's a little bit of an oversimplification it really depends on the deal how many lots you're buying per quarter the structure of the deal in some cases I think some land bankers are willing to actually give you a take for no carry just to keep you in the deal rather than taking back the lots and owning the lots.
Speaker #5: So all in, only about 10% of our total land supply is with traditional land bankers at this point in time. As far as structure, we don't cross-collateralize.
Speaker #5: So we always have the ability if any deal goes sideways to walk away from that deal without maybe some other hooks and implications that would make us stay in a transaction that doesn't structurally work or financially work any longer.
Speaker #1: I think we're sort of in that environment today at least with our folks. So it's hard to answer it really depends on your relationship and it depends on the deal.
Speaker #5: So we're very cautious from that perspective. So the only thing at risk for us would be the deposit and any other ancillary costs.
Speaker #1: I guess if all things being equal they were going to charge you for those delays. Your math might be close. I don't know Hewa if you want to add anything to it.
Phillippe Lord: The only thing I would add is, as Hilla said, it's a very small percentage with true lot financing. But because it's not cross-collateralized, I think working through those deals on a one-by-one basis is much easier. We have had some scenarios where we've gone back to our land bank financers and asked for some more time to stabilize the market, stabilize our inventory levels, and again, working on one deal, it creates more of an opportunity to do so.
Phillippe Lord: The only thing I would add is, as Hilla said, it's a very small percentage with true lot financing. But because it's not cross-collateralized, I think working through those deals on a one-by-one basis is much easier. We have had some scenarios where we've gone back to our land bank financers and asked for some more time to stabilize the market, stabilize our inventory levels, and again, working on one deal, it creates more of an opportunity to do so.
Speaker #2: And the only thing I would add is as Hilla said, it's a very small percentage with true lot financing. But because it's not cross-collateralized, I think working through those deals on a one-by-one basis is much easier.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I mean it depends what part of the cycle and how many assets you still have on book part of that math and of course what your interest rate is.
Speaker #3: But for us when we look at it good thing bad things don't get better with age. So if we're asking for a hold it's typically for us to rework a product lineup or to value engineer something we're not just holding and crossing our fingers and thinking something arbitrarily is going to get better in three to six months.
Speaker #2: We have had some scenarios where we've gone back to our land bank financers and asked for some more time to stabilize the market, stabilize our inventory levels.
Speaker #2: And again, working on one deal creates more of an opportunity to do so.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. I think we address this in our prepared remarks. Because we're very selective at the get-go as to what deals even go off-book, they typically have a little bit of breathing room on the margin, versus having arbitrary targets where we're forcing deals off-book to hit a percentage. For us, the ability to work with our partners, our off-book partners, is pretty high since they understand the transaction and see the margin profile and are willing to work with us on terms if we need them.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. I think we address this in our prepared remarks. Because we're very selective at the get-go as to what deals even go off-book, they typically have a little bit of breathing room on the margin, versus having arbitrary targets where we're forcing deals off-book to hit a percentage. For us, the ability to work with our partners, our off-book partners, is pretty high since they understand the transaction and see the margin profile and are willing to work with us on terms if we need them.
Speaker #5: Yeah. And I think we addressed this in our prepared remarks. Because we're very selective at the get-go as to what deals even go off-book, they typically have a little bit of breathing room on the margin versus having arbitrary targets where we're forcing deals off-book to hit a percentage.
Speaker #3: So again that's kind of the beauty of being very selective as to what deals you're putting in to an off-book structure in the first place.
Speaker #3: But yeah I mean there's definitely if you can't work a freebie it's typically going ing to cost you whatever your interest burden is for that six-month hold.
Speaker #5: So for us, the ability to work with our partners—our off-book partners—is pretty high, since they understand the transaction and see the margin profile, and are willing to work with us on terms if we need them.
Speaker #3: So yeah there's going to be an implication but 100 bips may be a little heavy.
Speaker #4: Okay.
Speaker #5: Appreciate that. Yeah. And I also appreciate your comments about how there is a human component to this. It's not all just simply math. I think that's an important point to make.
Trevor Allinson: Very helpful. Thank you for all the color, and good luck moving forward.
Trevor Allinson: Very helpful. Thank you for all the color, and good luck moving forward.
Speaker #4: Very helpful. Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward.
Hilla Sferruzza: Thank you.
Hilla Sferruzza: Thank you.
Speaker #5: Thank you.
Speaker #5: If I could also talk about your long-term gross margin target of 22.5 to 23.5 which obviously is where you were not that long ago and is but something that's quite above where you are currently.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Our next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.
Stephen Kim: Yeah, thanks very much, guys. I appreciate it. If I could follow up on the land bank question, can you give us a sense for roughly what percent of your land bank deals you've extended your takedown schedules? And am I right in thinking that, in a typical land bank deal, any individual land bank deal, if you extend, let's say, six months, that might drive roughly 100 basis point lower gross margin on the remaining lots versus the initial expected lot price?
Stephen Kim: Yeah, thanks very much, guys. I appreciate it. If I could follow up on the land bank question, can you give us a sense for roughly what percent of your land bank deals you've extended your takedown schedules? And am I right in thinking that, in a typical land bank deal, any individual land bank deal, if you extend, let's say, six months, that might drive roughly 100 basis point lower gross margin on the remaining lots versus the initial expected lot price?
Speaker #6: Yeah, thanks very much, guys. I appreciate it. If I could follow up on the land bank question—can you give us a sense for roughly what percent of your land bank deals you've extended your takedown schedules?
Speaker #5: You've talked in the past Hewa about the importance of volume. In achieving your level of gross margin. And so am I right to assume that that long-term target is consistent with at least a four per community absorption rate or do you think there's an opportunity to hit that gross margin level long-term with a lower level of absorptions than you had envisioned in the past?
Speaker #6: And am I right in thinking that in a typical land bank deal, any individual land bank deal, if you extend, let's say, six months, that that might drive roughly 100 basis points lower gross margin on the remaining lots versus the initial expected lot price?
Phillippe Lord: Thanks, Steven. First part, again, we have such a small percentage of our land book is land bank with lot financing. Even as you look at what percent of our deals required us to restructure, and when I say restructure, maybe we needed a quarter delay in the next take to buy some time to get through some inventory or stabilize kind of margins or whatnot. For the most part, that was very small as well. Most of our deals are performing fine. We're continuing to take lots down, and we're moving through the inventory as we planned. As far as your other question, I think it's a little bit of an oversimplification. It really depends on the deal, how many lots you're buying per quarter, the structure of the deal.
Phillippe Lord: Thanks, Steven. First part, again, we have such a small percentage of our land book is land bank with lot financing. Even as you look at what percent of our deals required us to restructure, and when I say restructure, maybe we needed a quarter delay in the next take to buy some time to get through some inventory or stabilize kind of margins or whatnot. For the most part, that was very small as well. Most of our deals are performing fine. We're continuing to take lots down, and we're moving through the inventory as we planned. As far as your other question, I think it's a little bit of an oversimplification. It really depends on the deal, how many lots you're buying per quarter, the structure of the deal.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Stephen. So, first part, again, we have such a small percentage of our land book that is land banked with lot financing. So, even as you look at what percent of our deals require us to restructure.
Speaker #1: Thanks Steve. I'll take part of that question. This is Philippe. So I think it's a lot easier to get to our long-term goal around 22.5 at four net sales per month.
Speaker #1: We're just way more efficient at that level. We leverage our fixed and variable overhead much more meaningfully. We're able to navigate cost the cost the vertical cost environment more effectively so the path at four net sales per month is much easier if we were to run it at something less than that than the offset would have to be in margin direct margin.
Speaker #2: And when I say restructure, maybe we needed a quarter delay in the next take to buy our some time to get through some inventory or stabilize kind of margins or whatnot.
Speaker #2: For the most part, that was very small as well. Most of our deals are performing fine. We're continuing to take lots down, and we're moving through the inventory as we planned.
Speaker #1: Which you might be able to hold onto your margins at a slower pace and try to drive it. So there is a path at three and a half if you will versus four but I think long-term four is the way to get there.
Speaker #2: As far as your other question, I think it's a little bit of an oversimplification. It really depends on the deal, how many lots you're buying per quarter, the structure of the deal.
Phillippe Lord: In some cases, I think some land bankers are willing to actually give you a take for no carry, just to keep you in the deal, rather than taking back the lots and owning the lots. I think we're sort of in that environment today, at least with our folks. It's hard to answer. It really depends on your relationship, and it depends on the deal. I guess if all things being equal, they were going to charge you for those delays, your math might be close. I don't know, Hilla, if you want to add anything to it.
Phillippe Lord: In some cases, I think some land bankers are willing to actually give you a take for no carry, just to keep you in the deal, rather than taking back the lots and owning the lots. I think we're sort of in that environment today, at least with our folks. It's hard to answer. It really depends on your relationship, and it depends on the deal. I guess if all things being equal, they were going to charge you for those delays, your math might be close. I don't know, Hilla, if you want to add anything to it.
Speaker #2: In some cases, I think some land bankers are willing to actually give you a take for no carry just to keep you in the deal.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I think Philippe's exactly right. There's two components. The first is just absolute value absolute volume and the second is volume per store. We're much more efficient at four plus so we definitely want that because the costs the local store level the superintendent and the cost of running that location are leveraged better but there's also costs at the division level that get better leverage period with volume.
Speaker #2: Rather than taking back the lots and owning the lots, I think we're sort of in that environment today, at least with our folks. So it's hard to answer.
Speaker #2: It really depends on your relationship, and it depends on the deal. I guess, if all things being equal, they were going to charge you for those delays.
Speaker #3: So we think that there's an opportunity for both. Right now the opportunity for us is at a higher store count so hopefully you'll see that improvement just between Q1 and Q2.
Speaker #2: Your math might be close. I don't know, Hilla, if you want to add anything to it.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. It depends what part of the cycle and how many assets you still have on book, part of that math, and of course, what your interest rate is. For us, when we look at it, bad things don't get better with age. If we're asking for a hold, it's typically for us to rework a product lineup or to value engineer something. We're not just holding and crossing our fingers and thinking something arbitrarily is going to get better in 3 to 6 months. Again, that's kind of the beauty of being very selective as to what deals you're putting into an off-book structure in the first place. Yeah, there's definitely. If you can't work a freebie, it's typically going to cost you whatever your interest burden is for that 6-month hold.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. It depends what part of the cycle and how many assets you still have on book, part of that math, and of course, what your interest rate is. For us, when we look at it, bad things don't get better with age. If we're asking for a hold, it's typically for us to rework a product lineup or to value engineer something. We're not just holding and crossing our fingers and thinking something arbitrarily is going to get better in 3 to 6 months. Again, that's kind of the beauty of being very selective as to what deals you're putting into an off-book structure in the first place. Yeah, there's definitely. If you can't work a freebie, it's typically going to cost you whatever your interest burden is for that 6-month hold.
Speaker #5: Yeah. I mean, it depends what part of the cycle and how many assets you still have on book. Part of that math, and of course, what your interest rate is.
Speaker #3: Right? The volume that we are guiding to on closings on Q2 is nicer than where we are today and we guide it to a higher margin than where we ended the quarter and part of that's going to be the incremental leverage.
Speaker #5: But for us, when we look at it, good thing bad things don't get better with age. So if we're asking for a hold, it's typically for us to rework a product lineup or to value engineer something we're not just holding and crossing our fingers and thinking something arbitrarily is going to get better in three to six months.
Speaker #3: But once we get back to that four net sales per store average there's another bump for us on incremental leveraging above that.
Speaker #1: And we see our path from where we are to where we want to go both this year and the future years is really driven by the following things.
Speaker #5: So again, that's kind of the beauty of being very selective as to what deals you're putting in to an off-book structure in the first place.
Speaker #1: The volume. We have the higher store count so we think we can get incremental volume. Less inventory in the market to compete with so a stronger pricing backdrop.
Speaker #5: But yeah, I mean, there's definitely if you can't work a freebie, it's typically going to cost you whatever your interest burden is for that six-month hold.
Speaker #1: And then reducing our incentives over time. A lot of the incentives that are currently in the market are psychological. We're trying to psychology so we're optimistic that as long as nothing from the macro environment continues to erode we can see a path there.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, there's going to be an implication, but 100 bps may be a little heavy.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, there's going to be an implication, but 100 bps may be a little heavy.
Speaker #5: So yeah, there's going to be an implication, but 100 bps may be a little heavy.
Stephen Kim: Okay. Appreciate that. Yeah, and I also appreciate your comments about how there is a human component to this. It's not all just simply math. I think that's an important point to make. If I could also talk about your long-term gross margin target of 22.5 to 23.5, which obviously is where you were not that long ago and is, but something that's quite above where you are currently. You've talked in the past, Hilla, about the importance of volume in achieving your level of gross margin. Am I right to assume that long-term target is consistent with at least a four per community absorption rate? Or do you think there's an opportunity to hit that gross margin level long term with a lower level of absorptions than you had envisioned in the past?
Stephen Kim: Okay. Appreciate that. Yeah, and I also appreciate your comments about how there is a human component to this. It's not all just simply math. I think that's an important point to make. If I could also talk about your long-term gross margin target of 22.5 to 23.5, which obviously is where you were not that long ago and is, but something that's quite above where you are currently. You've talked in the past, Hilla, about the importance of volume in achieving your level of gross margin. Am I right to assume that long-term target is consistent with at least a four per community absorption rate? Or do you think there's an opportunity to hit that gross margin level long term with a lower level of absorptions than you had envisioned in the past?
Speaker #6: Okay, appreciate that. Yeah, and I also appreciate your comments about how there is a human component to this. It's not all just simply math.
Speaker #6: I think that's an important point to make. If I could also talk about your long-term gross margin target at 22.5% to 23.5%, which obviously is where you were not that long ago, and is something that's quite above where you are currently.
Speaker #5: Great. Appreciate it guys. Thanks.
Speaker #6: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman. Your line is now open.
Speaker #4: Hey guys. Good morning. Thanks as always for the detail so far. First question on the margin guide and I think you Philippe you kind of touched on it in the news question but just want to dig a little deeper.
Speaker #6: You've talked in the past, Hilla, about the importance of volume. In achieving your level of gross margin. And so am I right to assume that that long-term target is consistent with at least a four-per-community absorption rate?
Speaker #4: So admittedly I was pleasantly surprised to see that you expected a hold margin roughly steady quarter over quarter. I would have thought just given kind of what we're hearing from other builders what we're seeing in the macro environment that there might have been some additional pressure there at least flowing through in two Q's.
Speaker #6: Or do you think there's an opportunity to hit that gross margin level long term, with a lower level of absorptions than you had envisioned in the past?
Speaker #4: So it sounds like some of that is top line leverage but I'm curious if you feel like now that you've reset some of the absorption goals at least for the near term whether this kind of 18% margin in the current backdrop is something that might be sustained through the year if market conditions remain fairly steady with where they are today.
Phillippe Lord: Thanks, Steve. I'll take part of that question. This is Phillippe. I think it's a lot easier to get to our long-term goal, around 22.5 at 4 net sales per month. We're just way more efficient at that level. We leverage our fixed and variable overhead much more meaningfully. We're able to navigate the vertical cost environment more effectively. The path at 4 net sales per month is much easier. If we were to run it at something less than that, then the offset would have to be in margin, direct margin, which you might be able to hold onto your margins at a slower pace and try to drive it. There is a path at 3.5, if you will, versus 4, but I think long-term, 4 is the way to get there.
Phillippe Lord: Thanks, Steve. I'll take part of that question. This is Phillippe. I think it's a lot easier to get to our long-term goal, around 22.5 at 4 net sales per month. We're just way more efficient at that level. We leverage our fixed and variable overhead much more meaningfully. We're able to navigate the vertical cost environment more effectively. The path at 4 net sales per month is much easier. If we were to run it at something less than that, then the offset would have to be in margin, direct margin, which you might be able to hold onto your margins at a slower pace and try to drive it. There is a path at 3.5, if you will, versus 4, but I think long-term, 4 is the way to get there.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Steve. I'll take part of that question. This is Phillippe. So I think it's a lot easier to get to our long-term goal around 22.5 at four net sales per month.
Speaker #2: We're just way more efficient at that level. We leverage our fixed and variable overhead, much more meaningfully. We're able to navigate cost, the cost, the vertical cost environment more effectively.
Speaker #1: Yeah. A lot of questions in there that I'll answer all of them for you because they're all very good. I do think that there's a couple of things we see that feel like it's forming sort of a potential floor.
Speaker #2: So the path at four net sales per month is much easier. If we were to run it at something less than that, then the offset would have to be in margin, direct margin, which—you might be able to hold onto your margins at a slower pace and try to drive it.
Speaker #1: Now this is again I don't know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't know what's going to happen with a lot of things that are outside of my control that can impact this.
Speaker #1: But in the industry we see a couple of things. Number one we see inventory levels stabilizing which I think is really good for pricing stability and confidence for the consumer when there's less inventory out there I think consumers feel a little bit more urgency than when there's a lot out there.
Speaker #2: So there is a path that three and a half, if you will, versus four. But I think long-term, four is the way to get there.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, I think Phillippe's exactly right. There's two components. The first is just absolute volume, and the second is volume per store. We're much more efficient at 4+, so we definitely want that because the costs at the local store level, the superintendent and the cost of running that location are leveraged better. There's also costs at the division level that get better leverage, period, with volume. We think that there's an opportunity for both. Right now, the opportunity for us is at a higher store count. Hopefully you'll see that improvement just between Q1 and Q2, right? The volume that we are guiding to on closings on Q2 is nicer than where we are today, and we guide it to a higher margin than where we ended the quarter. Part of that's going to be the incremental leverage.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah, I think Phillippe's exactly right. There's two components. The first is just absolute volume, and the second is volume per store. We're much more efficient at 4+, so we definitely want that because the costs at the local store level, the superintendent and the cost of running that location are leveraged better. There's also costs at the division level that get better leverage, period, with volume. We think that there's an opportunity for both. Right now, the opportunity for us is at a higher store count. Hopefully you'll see that improvement just between Q1 and Q2, right? The volume that we are guiding to on closings on Q2 is nicer than where we are today, and we guide it to a higher margin than where we ended the quarter. Part of that's going to be the incremental leverage.
Speaker #5: Yeah, I think Phillippe's exactly right. There are two components. The first is just absolute value, absolute volume. And the second is volume per store. We're much more efficient at four-plus.
Speaker #1: So I think that is helpful. I think the volume is critical. We have the highest community count we've ever had. We're projecting more community count growth through the rest of this year.
Speaker #5: So we definitely want that because the costs at the local store level, the superintendent and the cost of running that location are leveraged better.
Speaker #1: And even at these slower absorption paces we think we can get there and not have to give up more margin to get there. So we're optimistic about that.
Speaker #5: But there's also costs at the division level that get better leverage, period, with volume. So we think that there's an opportunity for both. Right now, the opportunity for us is at a higher store count.
Speaker #1: And then look in the beginning of this of Q1 we actually started feeling a better about things the weather kind of threw us off.
Speaker #5: So hopefully, you'll see that improvement just between Q1 and Q2, right? The volume that we are guiding to on closings on Q2 is nicer.
Speaker #1: February was okay. We had the war in Iran and people took a step back in certain markets. But March was pretty good. So we started feeling like we had some stability and some predictability in the market.
Speaker #5: And where we are today, and we guide it to a higher margin than where we ended the quarter, and part of that's going to be the incremental leverage.
Speaker #1: It just really hard to tell every week whether that's going to be something that's maintained and sustainable or there's going to be something else that throws the consumer off their game.
Hilla Sferruzza: Once we get back to that 4 net sales per store average, there's another bump for us on incremental leveraging above that.
Hilla Sferruzza: Once we get back to that 4 net sales per store average, there's another bump for us on incremental leveraging above that.
Speaker #5: But once we get back to that four net sales per store average, there's another bump for us on incremental leveraging above that.
Phillippe Lord: We see our path from where we are to where we want to go, both this year and the future years is really driven by the following things. The volume, we have the higher store count, so we think we can get incremental volume. Less inventory in the market to compete with, so a stronger pricing backdrop. Reducing our incentives over time. A lot of the incentives that are currently in the market are psychological. We're trying to convince folks that it's a good time to buy. It's part affordability, and part psychology. We're optimistic that as long as nothing from the macro environment continues to erode, we can see a path there.
Phillippe Lord: We see our path from where we are to where we want to go, both this year and the future years is really driven by the following things. The volume, we have the higher store count, so we think we can get incremental volume. Less inventory in the market to compete with, so a stronger pricing backdrop. Reducing our incentives over time. A lot of the incentives that are currently in the market are psychological. We're trying to convince folks that it's a good time to buy. It's part affordability, and part psychology. We're optimistic that as long as nothing from the macro environment continues to erode, we can see a path there.
Speaker #2: And we see our path from where we are to where we want to go both this year and the future years is really driven by the following things.
Speaker #1: But I feel a lot better about where inventory levels are and I feel a lot better about the communities that we've opened and the opportunity those give us to gain volume throughout the year.
Speaker #2: The volume. We have the higher storm count. So we think we can get incremental volume. Less inventory in the market to compete with. So a stronger pricing backdrop.
Speaker #3: That two other points on margin Alan. The first and we talked about it a little bit on our last earnings call that as we continue to improve on our direct costs as we work through our finished spec inventory you're going to start to see even better direct costs coming through.
Speaker #2: And then reducing our incentives over time. A lot of the incentives that are currently in the market are psychological. We're trying to convince folks that it's a good time to buy.
Speaker #3: So that's a benefit that you'll see starting in Q2 and continuing through the latter part of the year obviously all new communities are all with a new cost.
Speaker #2: It's part affordability and part psychology. So we're optimistic that, as long as nothing from the macro environment continues to erode, we can see a path there.
Speaker #3: So the more volume we have from those the better that piece is. And then just kind of doing math if you look at our closings this quarter and what we're guiding to for next quarter the back half of the year is going to be higher volume at our current projections.
Stephen Kim: Great. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.
Stephen Kim: Great. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.
Speaker #6: Great. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman. Your line is now open.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman. Your line is now open.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Our next question comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman. Your line is now open.
Speaker #3: Even at the low point of the full year guidance that we provided. So again that leveraging component that we're talking about is going to have an even more material impact for us through the back half of the year.
Alan Ratner: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks as always for the details so far. First question on the margin guide, and I think you, Phillippe, kind of touched on this in Steve's question, but just want to dig a little deeper. Admittedly, I was pleasantly surprised to see that you expect to hold margins roughly steady quarter over quarter. I would have thought, just given kind of what we're hearing from other builders, what we're seeing in the macro environment, that there might have been some additional pressure there, at least flowing through in Q2.
Alan Ratner: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks as always for the details so far. First question on the margin guide, and I think you, Phillippe, kind of touched on this in Steve's question, but just want to dig a little deeper. Admittedly, I was pleasantly surprised to see that you expect to hold margins roughly steady quarter over quarter. I would have thought, just given kind of what we're hearing from other builders, what we're seeing in the macro environment, that there might have been some additional pressure there, at least flowing through in Q2.
Speaker #7: Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks, as always, for the detail so far. First question on the margin guide, and I think you, Felipe, kind of touched on this in Steve's question, but just want to dig a little deeper.
Speaker #4: Great. All right. Perfect. I appreciate all the detail there. Second question I don't give specific cash flow guidance but the last couple of years cash has been a drag as you've been ramping the spec supply as you've been gearing up for this very significant community count growth.
Speaker #7: So admittedly, I was pleasantly surprised to see that you expected a hold margins roughly steady quarter over quarter. I would have thought just given kind of what we're hearing from other builders, what we're seeing in the macro environment, that there might have been some additional pressure there, at least flowing through in two Qs.
Speaker #4: It feels like both of those are kind of hitting an inflection point here where spec inventory is coming down a little bit. Community count still going up but not at the same rate it was.
Alan Ratner: It sounds like some of that is top-line leverage, but I'm curious if you feel like, now that you've reset some of the absorption goals, at least for the near term, whether this kind of 18% margin in the current backdrop is something that might be sustained through the year if market conditions remain fairly steady with where they are today.
Alan Ratner: It sounds like some of that is top-line leverage, but I'm curious if you feel like, now that you've reset some of the absorption goals, at least for the near term, whether this kind of 18% margin in the current backdrop is something that might be sustained through the year if market conditions remain fairly steady with where they are today.
Speaker #7: So it sounds like some of that is top-line leverage, but I'm curious if you feel like now that you've reset some of the absorption goals, at least for the near-term weather, this kind of 18% margin in the current backdrop is something that might be sustained through the year if market conditions remain fairly steady with where they are today.
Speaker #4: Pretty strong cash flow in the first quarter at least seasonally speaking. So can you give any guidance or color on where you expect the cash flow to shake out for the year?
Speaker #4: Are we past kind of the biggest burn periods and maybe cash should start to improve even if earnings are under pressure on a year over year basis?
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. A lot of questions in there that I'll answer all of them for you because they're all very good. I do think that there's a couple things we see that feel like it's forming sort of a potential floor. Now, this is, again, I don't know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't know what's going to happen with a lot of things that are outside my control that can impact this. In the industry, we see a couple of things. Number one, we see inventory levels stabilizing, which I think is really good for pricing stability and confidence for the consumer. When there's less inventory out there, I think consumers feel a little bit more urgency than when there's a lot out there. I think that is helpful. I think the volume is critical. We have the highest community count we've ever had.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. A lot of questions in there that I'll answer all of them for you because they're all very good. I do think that there's a couple things we see that feel like it's forming sort of a potential floor. Now, this is, again, I don't know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't know what's going to happen with a lot of things that are outside my control that can impact this. In the industry, we see a couple of things. Number one, we see inventory levels stabilizing, which I think is really good for pricing stability and confidence for the consumer. When there's less inventory out there, I think consumers feel a little bit more urgency than when there's a lot out there. I think that is helpful. I think the volume is critical. We have the highest community count we've ever had.
Speaker #2: Yeah, a lot of questions in there, and I'll answer all of them for you because they're all very good. I do think that there's a couple of things we see that feel like they're forming sort of a potential floor.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I mean we don't have specific cash flow guidance as you noted but the discipline to get down to 14 specs per store is an incredible effort.
Speaker #2: Now, this is, again, I don't know what's going to happen geopolitically. I don't know what's going to happen with a lot of things that are outside of my control that can impact this.
Speaker #3: By the team especially if you think that it just a year ago we were at 23 specs per store. That's relieved a lot of cash.
Speaker #3: That was kind of a more measured approach on land development. While definitely increasing shareholder returns but not by an equal offset is letting us kind of hold steady.
Speaker #2: But in the industry, we see a couple of things. Number one, we see inventory levels stabilizing, which I think is really good for pricing stability and confidence for the consumer.
Speaker #3: So if you think about the fact that we have these faster cycle times and we're trying to time starts with sales pace you really shouldn't see something too detrimental occurring on the cash flows and any cash position we think where we are is probably a good place for us with the size of the balance sheet that we have.
Speaker #2: When there's less inventory out there, I think consumers feel a little bit more urgency than when there's a lot out there. So I think that is helpful.
Speaker #2: I think the volume is critical. We have the highest community count we've ever had. We're projecting more community count growth through the rest of this year.
Phillippe Lord: We're projecting more community count growth through the rest of this year. Even at these slower absorption paces, we think we can get there and not have to give up more margin to get there. We're optimistic about that. Then look, in the beginning of Q1, we actually started feeling better about things. The weather kind of threw us off. February was okay. We had the war in Iran, and people took a step back in certain markets. March was pretty good. We started feeling like we had some stability and some predictability in the market. It's just really hard to tell every week whether that's going to be something that's maintained and sustainable, or there's going to be something else that throws the consumer off their game.
Phillippe Lord: We're projecting more community count growth through the rest of this year. Even at these slower absorption paces, we think we can get there and not have to give up more margin to get there. We're optimistic about that. Then look, in the beginning of Q1, we actually started feeling better about things. The weather kind of threw us off. February was okay. We had the war in Iran, and people took a step back in certain markets. March was pretty good. We started feeling like we had some stability and some predictability in the market. It's just really hard to tell every week whether that's going to be something that's maintained and sustainable, or there's going to be something else that throws the consumer off their game.
Speaker #2: And even at these slower absorption paces, we think we can get there—and not have to give up more margin to get there. So we're optimistic about that.
Speaker #3: So I think that you're going to see this kind of maintenance of cash flows. The outsized return to shareholders for the balance of this year as we've already articulated in our programmatic repurchase plan.
Speaker #2: And then, look, in the beginning of this, of Q1, we actually started feeling better about things. The weather kind of threw us off.
Speaker #3: But I think that you should see a more measured cash utilization as we're bringing stores online but a lot of the spend has already been incurred and we're definitely monitoring the whip units and the sticks and bricks cost that we that we're expending before we close the home.
Speaker #2: February was okay. We had the war in Iran and people took a step back in certain markets. But March was pretty good. So we started feeling like we had some stability and some predictability in the market.
Speaker #4: Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Speaker #2: It's just really hard to tell every week whether that's going to be something that's maintained and sustainable, or if there's going to be something else that throws the consumer off their game.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rehot with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Phillippe Lord: I feel a lot better about where inventory levels are, and I feel a lot better about the communities that we've opened and the opportunity those give us to gain volume throughout the year.
Phillippe Lord: I feel a lot better about where inventory levels are, and I feel a lot better about the communities that we've opened and the opportunity those give us to gain volume throughout the year.
Speaker #2: But I feel a lot better about where inventory levels are and I feel a lot better about the communities that we've opened and the opportunity those give us to gain volume throughout the year.
Speaker #5: Thanks. Good morning everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with just kind of broader thoughts around the demand backdrop. So far this earnings season we've heard slightly different narratives across the spectrum.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. Two other points on margin, Alan. The first, and we talked about it a little bit on our last earnings call, that as we continue to improve on our direct costs, as we work through our finished spec inventory, you're going to start to see even better direct costs coming through. That's a benefit that you'll see starting in Q2 and continuing through the latter part of the year. Obviously, all new communities are always a new cost. The more volume we have from those, the better that piece is. Just kind of doing math, if you look at our closings this quarter and what we're guiding to for next quarter, the back half of the year is going to be higher volume at our current projections, even at the low point of the full year guidance that we provided.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. Two other points on margin, Alan. The first, and we talked about it a little bit on our last earnings call, that as we continue to improve on our direct costs, as we work through our finished spec inventory, you're going to start to see even better direct costs coming through. That's a benefit that you'll see starting in Q2 and continuing through the latter part of the year. Obviously, all new communities are always a new cost. The more volume we have from those, the better that piece is. Just kind of doing math, if you look at our closings this quarter and what we're guiding to for next quarter, the back half of the year is going to be higher volume at our current projections, even at the low point of the full year guidance that we provided.
Speaker #5: That two other points on margin, Alan. The first, and we talked about it a little bit on our last earnings call, that as we continue to improve on our direct costs, as we work through our finished spec inventory, you're going to start to see even better direct costs coming through.
Speaker #5: Some builders kind of more leaning towards kind of a net commentary that maybe trends are a little bit more stable. Also incentives and levels maybe also kind of stabilizing.
Speaker #5: So that's a benefit that you'll see starting in Q2 and continuing through the latter part of the year, obviously, all new communities are all with a new cost.
Speaker #5: You kind of noted also a little bit about maybe inventory coming down somewhat which has been helpful. At the same time you've kind of highlighted some choppiness across your footprint notwithstanding perhaps March coming back a little bit stronger.
Speaker #5: So the more volume we have from those, the better that piece is. And then just kind of doing math, if you look at our closings this quarter and what we're guiding to for next quarter, the back half of the year is going to be higher volume.
Speaker #5: At our current projections, even at the low point of the full-year guidance that we provided. So again, that leveraging component that we're talking about is going to have an even more material impact for us through the back half of the year.
Speaker #5: But I was hoping to get a sense of with what it sounds like from your commentary maybe a little bit more on the cautious side if I'm interpreting that correctly.
Hilla Sferruzza: Again, that leveraging component that we're talking about is going to have an even more material impact for us through H2.
Hilla Sferruzza: Again, that leveraging component that we're talking about is going to have an even more material impact for us through H2.
Speaker #5: Is it certain markets that you're exposed to? You highlighted parts of Florida, Charlotte, Austin. Is it maybe the price point that you're offering or the fact that you're maybe still in kind of that spec area which I think by definition might cause a little bit more competition.
Alan Ratner: Great. All right. Perfect. I appreciate all the detail there. Second question. I know you don't give specific cash flow guidance, but the last couple of years, cash has been a drag as you've been ramping the spec supply, as you've been gearing up for this very significant community count growth. It feels like both of those are kind of hitting an inflection point here where spec inventory is coming down a little bit. Community count's still going up, but not at the same rate it was. Pretty strong cash flow in Q1, at least seasonally speaking. Can you give any guidance or color on where you expect the cash flow to shake out for the year? Are we past kind of the biggest burn periods and maybe cash should start to improve even if earnings are under pressure on a year-over-year basis?
Alan Ratner: Great. All right. Perfect. I appreciate all the detail there. Second question. I know you don't give specific cash flow guidance, but the last couple of years, cash has been a drag as you've been ramping the spec supply, as you've been gearing up for this very significant community count growth. It feels like both of those are kind of hitting an inflection point here where spec inventory is coming down a little bit. Community count's still going up, but not at the same rate it was. Pretty strong cash flow in Q1, at least seasonally speaking. Can you give any guidance or color on where you expect the cash flow to shake out for the year? Are we past kind of the biggest burn periods and maybe cash should start to improve even if earnings are under pressure on a year-over-year basis?
Speaker #7: Great. All right. Perfect. I appreciate all the detail there. Second question, I know you don't give specific cash flow guidance, but the last couple of years, cash has been a drag, as you've been ramping the spec supply, as you've been gearing up for this very significant community count growth.
Speaker #7: It feels like both of those are kind of hitting an inflection point here, where spec inventory is coming down a little bit, community count is still going up, but not at the same rate it was.
Speaker #5: Just trying to reconcile kind of where you are within the industry and how to better understand your positioning and how that relates to your commentary.
Speaker #7: Pretty strong cash flow in the first quarter, at least seasonally speaking. So, can you give any guidance or color on where you expect the cash flow to shake out for the year?
Speaker #1: Yeah. Thanks. I feel like you kind of answered your own question but I'll try to add some more to it. I think we're more cautious than maybe the opposite of being cautious.
Speaker #7: Are we past, kind of, the biggest burn periods? And maybe cash should start to improve, even if earnings are under pressure on a year-over-year basis?
Speaker #1: I think a part of it is our buyer profile seems to be lacking the confidence that maybe other buyer profiles have. They're stretched more from an affordability standpoint, cost of living.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. I mean, we don't have specific cash flow guidance, as you noted, but the discipline to get down to 14 specs per store is an incredible effort by the team, especially if you think that just a year ago, we were at 23 specs per store. That's relieved a lot of cash. That was kind of a more measured approach on land development, while definitely increasing shareholder returns, but not by an equal offset is letting us kind of hold steady. If you think about the fact that we have these faster cycle times and we're trying to time starts with sales pace, you really shouldn't see something too detrimental occurring on the cash flows in our any cash position. We think where we are is probably a good place for us with the size of the balance sheet that we have.
Hilla Sferruzza: Yeah. I mean, we don't have specific cash flow guidance, as you noted, but the discipline to get down to 14 specs per store is an incredible effort by the team, especially if you think that just a year ago, we were at 23 specs per store. That's relieved a lot of cash. That was kind of a more measured approach on land development, while definitely increasing shareholder returns, but not by an equal offset is letting us kind of hold steady. If you think about the fact that we have these faster cycle times and we're trying to time starts with sales pace, you really shouldn't see something too detrimental occurring on the cash flows in our any cash position. We think where we are is probably a good place for us with the size of the balance sheet that we have.
Speaker #5: Yeah, I mean, we don't have specific cash flow guidance, as you noted, but the discipline to get down to 14 specs per store is an incredible effort.
Speaker #5: By the team, especially if you think that just a year ago, we were at 23 specs per store. That's relieved a lot of cash.
Speaker #1: So it does feel like the procurement of those sales is very high which makes us very cautious. I think the other thing is our footprint.
Speaker #5: That was kind of a more measured approach on land development. While definitely increasing shareholder returns, but not by an equal offset, is letting us kind of hold steady.
Speaker #1: We're in the Sun Belt states primarily. Those were the states where prices got the most. Stretched during the last five years. Affordability got the most stretch.
Speaker #5: So, if you think about the fact that we have these faster cycle times and we're trying to time starts with sales pace, you really shouldn't see something too detrimental occurring on the cash flows or any cash position.
Speaker #1: There's probably higher levels of inventory that we're competing with. We're going the head to head with a lot of other entry level builders that do similar things to us.
Speaker #1: So for all those reasons I think when we look at our buyer profile and our geographical footprint we feel cautious right now.
Speaker #5: We think where we are is probably a good place for us with the size of the balance sheet that we have. So I think that you're going to see this kind of maintenance of cash flows.
Hilla Sferruzza: I think that you're going to see this kind of maintenance of cash flows, the outsized return to shareholders for the balance of this year, as we've already articulated in our programmatic repurchase plan. I think that you should see a more measured cash utilization as we're bringing stores online, but a lot of that spend has already been incurred, and we're definitely monitoring the WIP units and the sticks and bricks cost that we're expending before we close a home.
Hilla Sferruzza: I think that you're going to see this kind of maintenance of cash flows, the outsized return to shareholders for the balance of this year, as we've already articulated in our programmatic repurchase plan. I think that you should see a more measured cash utilization as we're bringing stores online, but a lot of that spend has already been incurred, and we're definitely monitoring the WIP units and the sticks and bricks cost that we're expending before we close a home.
Speaker #4: Right. Right. No. Understood. Secondly, there's a question earlier about cash flow and community count. And obviously if you reiterated your outlook for this year and you still have very strong growth kind of flowing through in 2026.
Speaker #5: The outsized return to shareholders for the balance of this year as we've already articulated in our programmatic repurchase plan. But I think that you should see a more measured cash utilization as we're bringing stores online, but a lot of the spend has already been incurred and we're definitely monitoring the whip units and the sticks and bricks costs that we're expending before we close the home.
Speaker #4: How should we think about 27, 28 given your current land position? It's particularly since with volumes being such a big driver of leverage and maybe you're a little less confident at least in the near term around getting significant improvements in absorption.
Alan Ratner: Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Alan Ratner: Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Speaker #7: Thanks very much. Appreciate it.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rehaut with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Speaker #5: Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rehot with JPMorgan. Your line is now open.
Michael Rehaut: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to start off with just kind of broader thoughts around the demand backdrop. So far this earnings season, we've heard slightly different narratives across the spectrum. Some builders kind of more leaning towards kind of a net commentary that maybe trends are a little bit more stable. Also incentives and levels maybe also kind of stabilizing. You kind of noted also a little bit about maybe inventory coming down somewhat, which has been helpful. At the same time, you've kind of highlighted some choppiness across your footprint, notwithstanding perhaps March coming back a little bit stronger. I was hoping to get a sense of with what it sounds like from your commentary, maybe a little bit more on the cautious side, if I'm interpreting that correctly. Is it certain markets that you're exposed to? You highlighted...
Michael Rehaut: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Wanted to start off with just kind of broader thoughts around the demand backdrop. So far this earnings season, we've heard slightly different narratives across the spectrum. Some builders kind of more leaning towards kind of a net commentary that maybe trends are a little bit more stable. Also incentives and levels maybe also kind of stabilizing. You kind of noted also a little bit about maybe inventory coming down somewhat, which has been helpful. At the same time, you've kind of highlighted some choppiness across your footprint, notwithstanding perhaps March coming back a little bit stronger. I was hoping to get a sense of with what it sounds like from your commentary, maybe a little bit more on the cautious side, if I'm interpreting that correctly. Is it certain markets that you're exposed to? You highlighted...
Speaker #6: Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to start off with just kind of broader thoughts around the demand backdrop. So far, this earnings season, we've heard slightly different narratives across the spectrum.
Speaker #4: How should we think about community count growth over the near to medium term two to three years out?
Speaker #1: Yeah. Great question. I feel really good about 2027. I mean as I indicated in the script we will have 5 to 10 percent community count growth this year over last year.
Speaker #6: Some builders kind of more leaning towards kind of a net commentary that maybe trends are a little bit more stable. Also, incentives and levels maybe also kind of stabilizing.
Speaker #1: So we'll go into 2027 with that. I feel like we'll be able to hold or grow that incrementally in 2027. Really hard to pin that down just yet until schedules are dialed in and whatnot.
Speaker #6: You kind of noted also a little bit about maybe inventory coming down somewhat, which has been helpful. At the same time, you've kind of highlighted some choppiness across your footprint, notwithstanding perhaps March coming back a little bit stronger.
Speaker #1: So I don't want to commit to anything in 2027 but we have the ability to grow our community count in 2027 if it makes sense.
Speaker #1: We're obviously rationalizing all new land. We're as Hila said we're phasing developments a lot more slowly these days. So we'll have to see how that all plays out in the back half of this year.
Speaker #1: 2028 is pretty far out there. We have 75,000 lots. So we have the ability to grow in 2020 as well. We're being very conservative on new land deals although land prices have stabilized in some places come down.
Speaker #6: But I was hoping to get a sense of—just from your commentary—it sounds like maybe you're a little bit more on the cautious side, if I'm interpreting that correctly. Is it certain markets that you're exposed to?
Speaker #1: Terms are better. They're still somewhat difficult to underwrite in the incentive environment. So we've been very slow to ramp up new land and I think we'll continue to do so.
Michael Rehaut: parts of Florida, Charlotte, Austin. Is it maybe the price point that you're offering or the fact that you're maybe still in that spec area, which, I think by definition might cause a little bit more competition? Just trying to reconcile where you are within the industry and how to better understand your positioning and how that relates to your commentary.
Michael Rehaut: parts of Florida, Charlotte, Austin. Is it maybe the price point that you're offering or the fact that you're maybe still in that spec area, which, I think by definition might cause a little bit more competition? Just trying to reconcile where you are within the industry and how to better understand your positioning and how that relates to your commentary.
Speaker #6: You highlighted parts of Florida, Charlotte, Austin. Is it maybe the price point that you're offering or the fact that you're maybe still in kind of that spec area which I think by definition might cause a little bit more competition?
Speaker #1: We have enough land to get where we need to go. And I think if we need to do some things to plus up 2028 I think the opportunities will be there.
Speaker #1: So I don't have a lot of visibility in 2028 right now but I feel good about 2027.
Speaker #6: Just trying to reconcile kind of where you are within the industry and how to better understand your positioning and how that relates to your commentary.
Speaker #3: Yeah. The goal is not to shrink. Right? We have the ability to maintain or grow and we'll take our cues from the market.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. Thanks. I feel like you answered your own question, but I'll try to add some more to it. I think we're more cautious than maybe the opposite of being cautious. I think a part of it is our buyer profile seems to be lacking the confidence that maybe other buyer profiles have. They're stretched more from an affordability standpoint, cost of living. It does feel like the procurement of those sales is very high, which makes us very cautious. I think the other thing is our footprint. We're in the Sun Belt states primarily. Those were the states where prices got the most stretched during the last five years. Affordability got the most stretched. There's probably higher levels of inventory that we're competing with. We're going head to head with a lot of other entry-level builders that do similar things to us.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah. Thanks. I feel like you answered your own question, but I'll try to add some more to it. I think we're more cautious than maybe the opposite of being cautious. I think a part of it is our buyer profile seems to be lacking the confidence that maybe other buyer profiles have. They're stretched more from an affordability standpoint, cost of living. It does feel like the procurement of those sales is very high, which makes us very cautious. I think the other thing is our footprint. We're in the Sun Belt states primarily. Those were the states where prices got the most stretched during the last five years. Affordability got the most stretched. There's probably higher levels of inventory that we're competing with. We're going head to head with a lot of other entry-level builders that do similar things to us.
Speaker #2: Yeah, thanks. I feel like you kind of answered your own question, but I'll try to add some more to it. I think we're more cautious than maybe the opposite of being cautious.
Speaker #4: Great. Thanks so much.
Speaker #3: Thank you. Our next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Speaker #6: Thank you. Good morning everyone. My first question is on the cancellation rate that you saw in the quarter. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it stayed low.
Speaker #2: I think a part of it is our buyer profile seems to be lacking the confidence that maybe other buyer profiles have. They're stretched more from an affordability standpoint—cost of living—so it does feel like the procurement of those sales is very high, which makes us very cautious.
Speaker #6: Can you talk to how your strategy of quick close is helping buyers even though they are seeing you are seeing a lot more caution in there and how that came through in that cancellation rate this quarter?
Speaker #1: I mean it's really low. So until it rises we're not paying a ton of attention to it. I think a lot of the cancellations that are happening have a lot more to do with the buyer stepping away and just thinking it's not a good time.
Speaker #2: I think the other thing is our footprint. We're in the Sunbelt states, primarily. Those were the states where prices got the most stretched during the last five years.
Speaker #2: Affordability got the most stretched. There's probably higher levels of inventory that we're competing with. We're going head-to-head with a lot of other entry-level builders that do similar things to us.
Speaker #1: But again it's a very low amount. Because we have such a quick sale to close we got a closing ready guarantee because our homes are ready to go.
Phillippe Lord: For all those reasons, I think when we look at our buyer profile and our geographical footprint, we feel cautious right now.
Phillippe Lord: For all those reasons, I think when we look at our buyer profile and our geographical footprint, we feel cautious right now.
Speaker #2: So for all those reasons, I think when we look at our buyer profile and our geographical footprint, we feel cautious right now.
Speaker #1: As soon as you buy it you're picking out your furniture. Our can rate is extremely low and we expect it to remain that way given our strategy.
Michael Rehaut: Right. No, understood. Secondly, there was a question earlier about cash flow and community count. Obviously, I believe you reiterated your outlook for this year, and you still have very strong growth kind of flowing through in 2026. How should we think about 2027, 2028, given your current land position, particularly since with volumes being such a big driver of leverage and maybe you're a little less confident, at least in the near term, around getting significant improvements in absorption? How should we think about community count growth over the near to medium term, two to three years out?
Michael Rehaut: Right. No, understood. Secondly, there was a question earlier about cash flow and community count. Obviously, I believe you reiterated your outlook for this year, and you still have very strong growth kind of flowing through in 2026. How should we think about 2027, 2028, given your current land position, particularly since with volumes being such a big driver of leverage and maybe you're a little less confident, at least in the near term, around getting significant improvements in absorption? How should we think about community count growth over the near to medium term, two to three years out?
Speaker #7: Right. Right. No. Understood. Secondly, there's a question earlier about cash flow and community count. And obviously, I believe you reiterated your outlook for this year and you still have very strong growth kind of flowing through in 2026.
Speaker #1: I think when people can start to imagine moving into the house 60 days they start planning their lives. And so it's extremely low. We expect it to remain very low.
Speaker #1: I'm not sure I'm answering your question if there's another question let me know.
Speaker #3: Just Susan I think everything Felice said is pretty much the amount of time that it takes them from the time we enter into the sales contract until the time they close the house they spend getting documents to the mortgage company.
Speaker #7: How should we think about 2027, 2028, given your current land position? Particularly since with volumes being such a big driver of leverage, and maybe you're a little less confident, at least in the near term around getting significant improvements in absorption, how should we think about community count growth over the near to medium-term, two to three years out?
Speaker #3: There's not a lot of time to rethink and tour other homes and maybe get convinced away from the commitment that they already made. So they're so hyper focused on just getting everything to the finish line that that's really helpful for us in the cancellation rate perspective.
Speaker #3: And even though our commitment is 60 days if you look at our backlog conversion rate you can see it's actually happening much faster than that.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah, great question. I feel really good about 2027. As I indicated in the script, we will have 5% to 10% community count growth this year over last year. We'll go into 2027 with that. I feel like we'll be able to hold or grow that incrementally in 2027. Really hard to pin that down just yet until schedules are dialed in and whatnot. Don't want to commit to anything in 2027, but we have the ability to grow our community count in 2027, if it makes sense. We're obviously rationalizing all new land. As Hilla said, we're phasing developments a lot more slowly these days, so we'll have to see how that all plays out in the back half of this year. 2028 is pretty far out there. We have 75,000 lots, so we have the ability to grow in 2028 as well.
Phillippe Lord: Yeah, great question. I feel really good about 2027. As I indicated in the script, we will have 5% to 10% community count growth this year over last year. We'll go into 2027 with that. I feel like we'll be able to hold or grow that incrementally in 2027. Really hard to pin that down just yet until schedules are dialed in and whatnot. Don't want to commit to anything in 2027, but we have the ability to grow our community count in 2027, if it makes sense. We're obviously rationalizing all new land. As Hilla said, we're phasing developments a lot more slowly these days, so we'll have to see how that all plays out in the back half of this year. 2028 is pretty far out there. We have 75,000 lots, so we have the ability to grow in 2028 as well.
Speaker #2: Yeah, great question. I feel really good about 2027. I mean, as I indicated in the script, we will have 5% to 10% community count growth this year over last year.
Speaker #3: At 254 percent backlog conversion we're getting folks from sale to movement in less than 60 days. So they literally don't have any time to second guess the decision to fall out is typically an event outside of not wanting the home that's causing them to have a cancellation.
Speaker #2: So, we'll go into 2027 with that. I feel like we'll be able to hold or grow that incrementally in 2027. Really hard to pin that down just yet, until schedules are dialed in and whatnot.
Speaker #3: It's something that occurred either on their financial position or in their personal life. That's causing the cancellation rate. It's very rarely that they still continue to tour homes thinking they're moving into a house in 40 days and they fell in love with something else and walked away from the deposit.
Speaker #2: So, I don't want to commit to anything in 2027, but we have the ability to grow our community count in 2027 if it makes sense.
Speaker #2: We're obviously rationalizing all new land. We're, as Hilla said, we're phasing developments a lot more slowly these days. So we'll have to see how that all plays out in the back half of this year.
Speaker #3: Hopefully that's helpful.
Speaker #6: Yes. No. That is helpful. That gets to my question of you're not seeing any change there obviously. The strategy of that quick close is helping to keep those people engaged and get them through that process which is great to hear.
Speaker #2: 2028 is pretty far out there. We have 75,000 lots. So we have the ability to grow in 2028 as well. We're being very conservative on new land deals, although land prices have stabilized in some places come down.
Phillippe Lord: We're being very conservative on new land deals. Although land prices have stabilized, in some places they've come down. Terms are better. They're still somewhat difficult to underwrite in the current incentive environment. We've been very slow to ramp up new land, and I think we'll continue to do so. We have enough land to get where we need to go, and I think if we need to do some things to plus up 2028, I think the opportunities will be there. I don't have a lot of visibility in 2028 right now, but I feel good about 2027.
Phillippe Lord: We're being very conservative on new land deals. Although land prices have stabilized, in some places they've come down. Terms are better. They're still somewhat difficult to underwrite in the current incentive environment. We've been very slow to ramp up new land, and I think we'll continue to do so. We have enough land to get where we need to go, and I think if we need to do some things to plus up 2028, I think the opportunities will be there. I don't have a lot of visibility in 2028 right now, but I feel good about 2027.
Speaker #6: So that's good. My second question is on the SG&A. You mentioned that obviously there was some impact of less leverage overhead leverage that you saw this quarter.
Speaker #2: Terms are better. They're still somewhat difficult to underwrite in the current incentive environment. So we've been very slow to ramp up new land, and I think we'll continue to do so.
Speaker #6: I guess as you think about the back half of this year how are you expecting that to come through to or what will that mean for SG&A?
Speaker #2: We have enough land to get where we need to go. And I think if we need to do some things to plus up 2028, I think the opportunities will be there.
Speaker #6: And then as we think over time can you talk a bit more about the back office automation and other savings that you're implementing?
Speaker #2: So I don't have a lot of visibility in 2028 right now, but I feel good about 2027.
Speaker #3: typically Q1 is our high watermark for SG&A. We have some certain retirement compensation triggers that disproportionately skew expenses into the first quarter anyway. And based on our full year guidance for closings it's going to be our lowest level quarter on closings.
Hilla Sferruzza: The goal is not to shrink. Right. We have the ability to maintain or grow, and we'll take our cues from the market.
Hilla Sferruzza: The goal is not to shrink. Right. We have the ability to maintain or grow, and we'll take our cues from the market.
Speaker #7: Yeah. The goal is not to shrink, right? We have the ability to maintain or grow, and we'll take our cues from the market.
Michael Rehaut: Great. Thanks so much.
Michael Rehaut: Great. Thanks so much.
Speaker #6: Great. Thanks so much.
Speaker #3: So definitely some lower leverage opportunities for us on SG&A costs in Q1. So you should definitely see an improvement in that target. For the balance of the year in every one of the upcoming quarters.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question comes from Susan McClary with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.
Susan Maklari: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the cancellation rate that you saw in the quarter. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it stayed low. Can you talk to how your strategy of quick close is helping buyers, even though you are seeing a lot more caution in there, and how that came through in that cancellation rate this quarter?
Susan Maklari: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the cancellation rate that you saw in the quarter. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it stayed low. Can you talk to how your strategy of quick close is helping buyers, even though you are seeing a lot more caution in there, and how that came through in that cancellation rate this quarter?
Speaker #8: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. My first question is on the cancellation rate that you saw in the quarter. I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that it stayed low.
Speaker #3: As far as the back office automation there's a tremendous amount that's still done in home building taking one piece of paper and typing it into another system whether it's a closing document something from title escrow mortgage a lot of people doing things that are not their job description.
Speaker #8: Can you talk to how your strategy of quick close is helping buyers, even though we are seeing a lot more caution out there, and how that came through in that cancellation rate this quarter?
Phillippe Lord: It's really low. Until it rises, we're not paying a ton of attention to it. I think a lot of the cancellations that are happening have a lot more to do with the buyer stepping away and just thinking it's not a good time. Again, it's a very low amount because we have such a quick sale to close. We got a closing ready guarantee. The homes are ready to go. As soon as you buy it, you're picking out your furniture. Our cancel rate is extremely low, and we expect it to remain that way given our strategy. I think when people can start to imagine moving into the house 60 days, they start planning their lives, and so it's extremely low. We expect it to remain very low. I'm not sure I'm answering your question. If there's another question, let me know.
Phillippe Lord: It's really low. Until it rises, we're not paying a ton of attention to it. I think a lot of the cancellations that are happening have a lot more to do with the buyer stepping away and just thinking it's not a good time. Again, it's a very low amount because we have such a quick sale to close. We got a closing ready guarantee. The homes are ready to go. As soon as you buy it, you're picking out your furniture. Our cancel rate is extremely low, and we expect it to remain that way given our strategy. I think when people can start to imagine moving into the house 60 days, they start planning their lives, and so it's extremely low. We expect it to remain very low. I'm not sure I'm answering your question. If there's another question, let me know.
Speaker #9: I mean, it's really low. So until it rises, we're not paying a ton of attention to it. I think a lot of the cancellations that are happening have a lot more to do with the buyer stepping away and just thinking it's not a good time.
Speaker #3: Right? If your job is an analyst it's not a typist. So we're finding ways for AI and technology to interpret documents and auto feed a lot of data.
Speaker #3: Into our systems which should help us gain efficiencies and is part of the path for us on getting to that 9.5 percent SG&A target in the future.
Speaker #9: But again, it's a very low amount. Because we have such a quick sale to close, we got a closing-ready guarantee. The homes are ready to go.
Speaker #3: Obviously those numbers become even more meaningful at higher volumes. It would require would have required more man hours to do some of those tasks.
Speaker #9: As soon as you buy it, you're picking out your furniture. Our can rate is way given our strategy. I think when people can start to imagine moving into the house 60 days, they start planning their lives.
Speaker #3: So it helps you not just with costs but also with accuracy and rework. So we're pretty excited about some of the initiatives. There's also a lot of customer facing initiatives whether it's something that we'll be rolling out.
Speaker #9: And so it's extremely low. We expect it to remain very low. I'm not sure I'm answering your question. If there's another question, let me know.
Speaker #3: I don't want to steal a thunder from our sales and marketing team so stay tuned for some fun announcement about some of our customer facing solutions.
Hilla Sferruzza: Susan, I think everything Phillippe said is dead on. Pretty much the amount of time that it takes them from the time we enter-
Hilla Sferruzza: Susan, I think everything Phillippe said is dead on. Pretty much the amount of time that it takes them from the time we enter-
Speaker #7: Just Susan, I think everything Felipe said is dead on. Pretty much the amount of time that it takes them—from the time we enter into the sales contract until the time they close the house—they spend getting documents to the mortgage company.
Speaker #3: But we have both back office and customer facing tools that should both drive SG&A leverage benefits in the very near term.
Speaker #6: Okay. That all sounds great. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.
Speaker #7: There's not a lot of time to rethink and tour other homes and maybe get convinced away from the commitment that they already made. So they're so hyper-focused on just getting everything to the finish line that that's really helpful for us in a cancellation rate perspective.
Speaker #3: Thanks.
Speaker #7: Thank you. Our next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS. Your line is now open.
Speaker #8: Hey guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well. So you opened 40 new communities in the quarter which I think is a pretty solid result.
Speaker #7: And even though our commitment is 60 days, if you look at our backlog conversion rate, you can see it's actually happening much faster than that.
Speaker #8: We typically would think of these newer communities having a higher absorption just given and higher levels of interest and wait lists and things of that nature.
Speaker #7: At 254% backlog conversion, we're getting folks from sale to move-in in less than 60 days. So they literally don't have any time to second-guess the decision the fallout is typically an event outside of not wanting the home that's causing them to have a cancellation.
Speaker #8: So the question is I mean did you experience higher absorption in these new communities and then how many more communities should we expect as we move through the year?
Speaker #1: Thanks ks John. I think most of the communities we opened up in Q1 a lot of them opened up the last month of the quarter.
Speaker #7: It's something that occurred either in their financial position or in their personal life that's causing the cancellation rate. It's very rare that they still continue to tour homes thinking they're moving.
Speaker #1: They kind of hit what we thought. They met our expectations. I wouldn't say they exceeded our expectations. I wouldn't say they underperformed. They kind of did what we thought they were going to do.
Speaker #7: It's a house in 40 days. And they fell in love with something else and walked away from the deposit. Hopefully, that's helpful.
Speaker #1: Probably Q2 will tell us more about whether they're hitting their stride but they seem they're all very good locations. Strong positions. Strong margins. Strong pricing.
Speaker #1: Yes. No, that is helpful. That gets to my question of you're not seeing any change there. Obviously, the strategy of that quick close is helping to keep those people engaged and get them through that process, which is great to hear.
Speaker #1: So I think we feel pretty good about them. And then as we said on the script we expect 5 to 10 percent range of growth year over year.
Speaker #1: So that's good. My second question is on the SG&A. You mentioned that, obviously, there was some impact of less overhead leverage that you saw this quarter.
Speaker #1: So I think you can expect a little bit more here in the back half of this year. To get us to that number. We'll see how everything goes around opening those up.
Speaker #1: I guess, as you think about the back half of this year, how are you expecting that to come through to, or what will that mean for SG&A?
Speaker #1: But we're committed to a 5 to 10 percent year over year growth in our community count this year.
Speaker #1: And then, as we think over time, can you talk a bit more about the back-office automation and other savings that you're implementing?
Speaker #8: Okay. That's helpful. And then in the prepared remarks and then I think in the press release you guys called out some storm impact in the first quarter which makes sense.
Speaker #7: Yeah. So we definitely typically Q1 is our high watermark for SG&A. We have some certain retirement compensation triggers that disproportionately skew expenses into the first quarter anyway.
Speaker #8: Curious if those deliveries were actually captured in the quarter or do you expect those to be captured in the second quarter? And then if there's any way to quantify the number of units.
Speaker #7: And based on our full-year guidance for closings, it's going to be our lowest-level quarter on closings. So definitely some lower leverage opportunities for us on SG&A cost in Q1.
Speaker #1: Yeah. I mean January was softer than we thought. And I think the primary reason for that given what we saw in February and March was the storm.
Speaker #7: So you should definitely see an improvement in that target. For the balance of the year, in every one of the upcoming quarters, as far as the back office automation, there's a tremendous amount that's still done in home building taking one piece of paper and typing it into another system, whether it's a closing document, something from title, escrow, mortgage, a lot of people doing things that are not their job description, right?
Speaker #1: There were multiple markets that were impacted by that storm. In some cases mobility was impacted. And so we just didn't see the traffic that we would have thought we would have saw towards the end of January.
Speaker #1: And as you can see from our guidance we missed our guidance and we think that was why. I think that incremental volume that we thought we were going to see in January didn't materialize and if we would have closed an extra 2 to 3 hundred homes we probably would have been a lot closer to what we thought we were going to do.
Speaker #7: If your job is an analyst, it's not a typist. So we're finding ways for AI and technology to interpret documents and auto-feed a lot of data into our systems, which should help us gain efficiencies and is part of the path for us on getting to that 9.5% SG&A target in the future.
Speaker #1: Those buyers we probably captured them in February or March depending. And so they'll probably close into Q2. But our business doesn't really work that way.
Speaker #1: I mean we sell a home and we close a 60 days later. So whether we got that buyer or not it's going to either happen next month or the month after that.
Speaker #7: Obviously, those numbers become even more meaningful at higher volumes. It would require would have required more man-hours to do some of those tasks. So it helps you not just with cost, but also with accuracy and rework.
Speaker #1: And we're really just a just in time business at this point. So hopefully that's helpful and answers your question.
Speaker #3: Yeah. I mean it's lost days of sale. You don't double up when the stores open back up and you capture two days of sale in one.
Speaker #7: So we're pretty excited about some of the initiatives. There's also a lot of customer-facing initiatives, whether it's something that we'll be rolling out. I don't want to steal the thunder from our sales and marketing team, so stay tuned for some fun announcements.
Speaker #3: So there are basically three, four, five lost days of sale in a large portion of our markets in January. And those are sales that are we're not somehow recaptured in the next month.
Speaker #7: Some of our customer-facing solutions, but we have both back office and customer-facing tools that should both drive SG&A leverage benefits in the very near term.
Speaker #3: So we were trying to press on the gas and figure out a way to accelerate that. And then as we mentioned the kind of consumer confidence maybe put a little bit of a damper when inflation and interest rates and gas prices increase.
Speaker #1: Okay, that all sounds great. Thank you. Good luck with the quarter.
Speaker #7: Thanks.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question comes from John Lovallo with UBS. Your line is now open.
Speaker #3: So we view those as true lost days. Now we're working to catch up. You see our projections for Q2 are a lot healthier than Q1.
Speaker #10: Hey, guys. Thank you for taking my questions as well. So, you opened 40 new communities in the quarter, which I think is a pretty solid result.
Speaker #3: But I don't know that they were somehow recaptured in February.
Speaker #10: We typically would think of these newer communities having a higher absorption, just given higher levels of interest, waitlists, and things of that nature.
Speaker #8: Okay. Got it. Thank you guys.
Speaker #7: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay McCandless with Citizens. Your line is now open.
Speaker #10: So, the question is—I mean, did you experience higher absorption in these new communities? And then, how many more communities should we expect as we move through the year?
Speaker #9: Hey. Good morning everyone. First question I had Hila in the script I think you talked about land vintages mostly being 2022 to '24. But I missed some of your other comments around that.
Speaker #11: Thanks, John. I think most of the communities we opened up in Q1, a lot of them opened up the last month of the quarter.
Speaker #9: I guess how much of either total lots now are owned lots are running at that vintage or in that vintage area?
Speaker #11: They kind of hit what we thought. They met our expectations. I wouldn't say they exceeded our expectations. I wouldn't say they underperformed. They kind of did what we thought they were going to do.
Speaker #3: Yeah. That's pretty granular. So I mean we always have some long-term communities that we're in phase six and we have some new communities that we probably bought in '25 that we're selling at right now.
Speaker #11: Probably Q2 will tell us more about whether they're hitting their stripe, but they seem they're all very good locations. Strong positions, strong margins, strong pricing.
Speaker #3: So we're not getting that level of breakout. But for the most part it was mostly just commentary as to why the lot cost is running a little bit hotter.
Speaker #11: So I think we feel pretty good about them. And then, as we said on the script, we expect a 5% to 10% range of growth year over year.
Speaker #3: We tend to have community sizes between 100 and 150. And at about three and a half, four and a half net sales per store you can do the math as to how quickly we've burned through those.
Speaker #11: So, I think you can expect a little bit more here in the back half of this year to get us to that number. We'll see how everything goes around opening those up.
Speaker #3: So for the most part for us everything's live I think was the intent of that comment. What we're experiencing and what we have been experiencing at the elevated land development cost burden that's running through our numbers currently but hopefully we should be able to tail end of that by the end of '27.
Speaker #11: But we're committed to a 5% to 10% year-over-year growth in our community count this year.
Speaker #10: Okay. That's helpful. And then in the prepared remarks, and then I think in the press release, you guys called out some storm impact in the first quarter, which makes sense.
Speaker #8: Okay. That's great. Thank you for explaining that. And then the second question I had on the left segment and I fifth quarter in a row where orders are down year over year and kind of stuck at this mid '80s community count.
Speaker #10: Curious if those deliveries were actually captured in the quarter, or do you expect those to be captured in the second quarter? And then, if there's any way to quantify the number of units.
Speaker #8: Maybe what's the strategy near term? Are there some older dated communities you have to sell through there before you can start to grow that again?
Speaker #11: Yeah. I mean, January was softer than we thought. And I think the primary reason for that, given what we saw in February and March, was the storm.
Speaker #8: Just maybe a quick take on what you're doing in the west segment.
Speaker #1: Yeah. I think you're talking about the western region which is California and Arizona and Colorado and Utah. Those are certainly some of the more challenged markets.
Speaker #11: There were multiple markets that were impacted by that storm. In some cases, mobility was impacted. And so we just didn't see the traffic that we would have thought we would have saw towards the end of January.
Speaker #1: I think the narrative on Denver is pretty clear. The narrative on what's been happening in northern California is pretty clear. Arizona's kind of what it is.
Speaker #11: And as you can see from our guidance, we missed our guidance, and we think that was why. I think that incremental volume that we thought we were going to see in January didn't materialize.
Speaker #1: SoCal's been okay and Utah's a pretty strong market. But just in general the west region has been a tougher place to do business. The affordability has been a lot of pressure on the buyers.
Speaker #11: And if we would have closed an extra 200 to 300 homes, we probably would have been a lot closer to what we thought we were going to do.
Speaker #11: Those buyers, we probably captured them in February or March, depending. And so they'll probably close into Q2. But our business doesn't really work that way.
Speaker #1: There's a lot of competition. Land prices are super sticky. Regulatory environment is really high. So we've been intentionally trying to reallocate a significant part of our business to the east of the west region.
Speaker #11: I mean, we sell a home, and we close 60 days later. So whether we got that buyer or not, it's going to either happen next month or the month after that.
Speaker #1: It doesn't mean we're not in those markets. We don't believe in those markets but we're being much more strategic the value of your land book is high and it's very irreplaceable.
Speaker #11: And we're really just a just-in-time business at this point. So, hopefully that's helpful and answers your question.
Speaker #1: So we're willing to run that region at a slower pace and try to maximize the margins of that land book because it took a long time to put it together.
Speaker #1: Yeah, I mean, it's lost days of sale. You don't double up when the stores open back up, and you capture two days of sale in one.
Speaker #1: And so you'll continue to I think see the west region be a smaller part of our business long term.
Speaker #1: So there are basically three, four, five lost days of sale in a large portion of our markets in January. And those are sales that were not somehow recaptured in the next month.
Speaker #8: Okay. Great. And if I could speak one more end Felipe was encouraged to hear what you're saying about external inventories. I mean if we think about time whether it's 12, 18 months any commentary you have on when you think external spec inventories will be down to a level that will give you guys some better pricing power?
Speaker #1: So we were trying to press on the gas and figure out a way to accelerate that. And then, as we mentioned, the kind of consumer confidence maybe put a little bit of a damper when inflation and interest rates and gas prices increase.
Speaker #1: Yeah. Great question. I think the builder group in general did a great job these last quarters navigating some of their aged inventory. I think they're still a little bit of overhang out there.
Speaker #1: So, we view those as true lost days that we're working to catch up. You see our projections for Q2 are a lot healthier than Q1, but I don't know that they were somehow recaptured in February.
Speaker #1: Even our numbers were still a little high on the finished specs. That we're carrying we'd like to carry a little bit less. I think there's still some other folks that are navigating as well.
Speaker #10: Okay. Got it. Thank you, guys.
Speaker #1: But the effort was significant so I already feel better in general as we go into Q2 that the environment is less competitive. But I do think there's still some more to go.
Speaker #1: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay McCandless with Citizens. Your line is now open.
Speaker #12: Hey, good morning, everyone. First question I had—Hilla, in the script, I think you talked about land vintages mostly being 2022 to '24, but I missed some of your other comments around that.
Speaker #1: But I think as we work through that the rest of this year I could see going into 2027 with a much different sort of competitive inventory environment.
Speaker #12: I guess, how much of either total lots now or owned lots are running at that vintage, or in that vintage area?
Speaker #1: I think the other thing I mentioned it's important is just there's a pivot away from specs in general in our industry for a lot of reasons.
Speaker #1: Yeah, that's pretty granular. So, I mean, we always have some long-term communities that we're in phase six, and we have some new communities that we probably bought in '25 that we're selling at right now.
Speaker #1: Depending on who your consumer segment is and the markets you're in. So I think that's helpful for us because we're not pivoting away from specs.
Speaker #1: So, we're not giving that level of breakout. But for the most part, it was mostly just commentary as to why the lot cost is running a little bit hotter.
Speaker #1: That's our business. And so less competition in the spec entry level business moving ready business it creates a better competitive environment for our products specifically.
Speaker #1: We tend to have community sizes between 100 and 150. And at about three and a half, four and a half net sales per store, you can do the math as to how quickly we burn through those.
Speaker #8: Okay. That's great. Thank you.
Speaker #7: Thank you. And our final question comes from Jay Bramani with KBW. Your line is now open.
Speaker #1: So, for the most part, for us, everything's live—I think that was the intent of that comment—what we're experiencing. And what we have been experiencing is the elevated land development cost burden that's running through our numbers currently, but hopefully, we should be at the tail end of that by the end of '27.
Speaker #8: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Jason Savgnon for Jade. I wanted to ask you about AI across various surveys the construction industry ranks quite low in terms of the expected AI impact.
Speaker #8: Any comment in on deployment opportunities in back office automation potentially customer acquisition? What are you seeing any other areas of the business where it could potentially make a difference be that supply chain management or construction management?
Speaker #12: Okay. That's great. Thank you for explaining that. And then the second question I had on the west segment, fifth quarter in a row, where orders are down, year over year, and kind of stuck at this mid-'80s community count.
Speaker #12: Maybe, what's the strategy near term? Are there some older-dated communities you have to sell through there before you can start to grow that again?
Speaker #8: Thank you.
Speaker #3: I mean AI is going to have a place in every sector of every business. I think it's just deployment and low hanging fruit. So I think we're starting off with a very easy pieces and hopefully making the mistakes and things that are easily fixable as we grow in new muscle in our skill set.
Speaker #12: Just maybe a quick take on what you're doing in the west segment.
Speaker #11: Yeah, I think you're talking about the West region, which is California, Arizona, and Colorado. And Utah—those are certainly some of the more challenged markets.
Speaker #3: But yeah eventually it's going to be a component of everything that we do. The more that we manage our data and are able to use AI on in a holistic way at all of our data we try not to look at things as limited by a system.
Speaker #11: I think the narrative on Denver is pretty clear. The narrative on what's been happening in Northern California is pretty clear. Arizona's kind of what it is.
Speaker #11: SoCal's been okay. And Utah's a pretty strong market. But just in general, the West region has been a tougher place to do business. The affordability has been a lot of pressure on the buyers.
Speaker #3: So if you think about your data and a data warehouse and then you can query everything in AI from that perspective. Then there is no limit as to what functional area is benefiting from your AI initiative.
Speaker #11: There's a lot of competition. Land prices are super sticky. The regulatory environment is really high. So we've been intentionally trying to reallocate a significant part of our business to the East from the West region.
Speaker #3: So yeah it's definitely something that we're hyper focused on the opportunities for savings on a cost side. Our massive when you're thinking about it from that perspective.
Speaker #3: But we're going to walk or crawl walk run right? So we got to take the easy steps first and then advance on to beyond that.
Speaker #11: It doesn't mean we're not in those markets. We do believe in those markets, but we're being much more strategic. The value of your land book is high, and it's very irreplaceable.
Speaker #8: Got it. Thank you. And then just as a final question is there certain level of mortgage rates or the tenure that you'd expect to drive an inflection in buyer activity?
Speaker #11: So we're willing to run that region at a slower pace and try to maximize the margin of that land book, because it took a long time to put it together.
Speaker #11: And so you'll continue to, I think, see the West region be a smaller part of our business long term.
Speaker #1: Good question. I think it feels like as things sort of move at to 6 or slightly below 6 we really see buyer psychology change below that level.
Speaker #12: Okay, great. And if I could sneak one more in, Phillippe, I was encouraged to hear what you’re saying about external inventories. I mean, if we think about time—whether it’s 12, 18 months—any commentary you have on when you think external spec inventories will be down to a level that will give you guys some better pricing power?
Speaker #1: And I think anything below that on your way to 5 will just be really unleashed demand because of the affordability piece. So that's kind of how we feel about it.
Speaker #1: 6 or lower is a good for our business. It's stable. Our rate buy downs are more efficient. Anything below that just provides more tailwind for our industry.
Speaker #11: I think the builder group in general did a great job these last quarters navigating some of their aged inventory. I think there's still a little bit of overhang out there.
Speaker #8: Great. Thanks.
Speaker #11: Even our numbers were still a little high on the finished specs that we're carrying. We'd like to carry a little bit less. I think there's still some other folks that are navigating as well.
Speaker #1: Thank you operator. I'd like to thank everyone who joined this call today for your continued interest in Mary's Homes. We hope you have a great rest of the day and a great weekend.
Speaker #11: But the effort was significant. So I already feel better in general as we go into Q2 that the environment is less competitive. But I do think there's still some more to go.
Speaker #1: Thank you.
Speaker #11: But I think as we work through that the rest of this year, I could see going into 2027 with a much different sort of competitive inventory environment.
Speaker #11: I think the other thing I mentioned is it's important, there's just a pivot away from specs in general in our industry for a lot of reasons.
Speaker #11: Depending on who your consumer segment is and the markets you're in. So I think that's helpful for us because we're not pivoting away from specs.
Speaker #11: That's our business. And so, less competition in the spec entry-level business, move-in-ready business, it creates a better and more competitive environment for our product specifically.
Speaker #12: Okay. That's great. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you. And our final question comes from Jade Rahmani with KBW. Your line is now open.
Speaker #12: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. This is Jason Savagnon for Jade. I wanted to ask you about AI across various surveys, the construction industry, ranks quite low in terms of the expected AI impact.
Speaker #12: Any comment on deployment opportunities in back office, automation, potentially customer acquisition? But are you seeing any other areas of the business where it could potentially make a difference, be that supply chain management or construction management?
Speaker #12: Thank you.
Speaker #1: I mean, AI is going to have a place in every sector of every business. I think it's just deployment, and low-hanging fruit. So I think we're starting off with the very easy pieces, and hopefully making the mistakes and things that are easily fixable as we grow new muscle in our skill set.
Speaker #1: But yeah, eventually it's going to be a component of everything that we do. The more that we manage our data and are able to use AI in a holistic way at all of our data, we try not to look at things as limited by a system.
Speaker #1: So, if you think about your data in a data warehouse, and then you can query everything, and AI from that perspective, then there is no limit as to what functional area is benefiting from your AI initiative.
Speaker #1: So yeah, it's definitely something that we're hyper-focused on. The opportunities for savings on the cost side are massive when you're thinking about it from that perspective.
Speaker #1: But we're going to walk or crawl—walk, run. Right? So we’ve got to take the easy steps first, and then advance on beyond that.
Speaker #12: Got it. Thank you. And then, just as a final question, is there a certain level of mortgage rates or the 10-year that you'd expect to drive an inflection in buyer activity?
Speaker #11: Good question. As things—it feels like as things—sort of move at to 6 or slightly below 6, we really see buyer psychology change below that level.
Speaker #11: And I think anything below that on your way to 5 will just be really unleashed demand because of the affordability piece. So that's kind of how we feel about it.
Speaker #11: 6 or lower is a good for our business. It's stable. Our rate buy-downs are more efficient. Anything below that just provides more tailwind for our industry.
Speaker #12: Great. Thanks.
Speaker #11: Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everyone who joined this call today for your continued interest in Meritage Homes. We hope you have a great rest of the day and a great weekend.
Speaker #11: Thank you.