Q1 2026 AXT Inc Earnings Call

April 30, 2026

Tracy: Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to AXT's Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, Vice President of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Tracy, I will be your coordinator today. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, investor relations for AXT. Leslie, go ahead.

Operator: Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to AXT's Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, Vice President of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Tracy, I will be your coordinator today. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, investor relations for AXT. Leslie, go ahead.

Speaker #1: In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, who will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Tracy, and I will be your coordinator today.

Speaker #1: After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand.

Speaker #1: I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Leslie, go ahead.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits, our plan to list our subsidiary Tongmei in China, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity.

Leslie Green: Thank you, Tracy. Good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits, our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei in China, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity.

Speaker #2: We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially.

Leslie Green: We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include, but are not limited to, the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China. In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at axt.com through 30 April 2027.

Speaker #2: In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China.

Speaker #2: In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Speaker #2: These are available online by link from our website, and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

Speaker #2: This conference call will be available on our website at AXT.com through April 30th, 2027. Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the first quarter of 2026.

Leslie Green: I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for Q1 2026. This information is available on our website at axt.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our Q1 results. Gary?

Speaker #2: This information is available on our website at AXT.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our first quarter results.

Speaker #2: Gary?

Speaker #3: Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was 26.9 million, compared with 23.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 19.4 million in the first quarter of 2025 last year.

Gary Fischer: Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for Q1 2026 was $26.9 million, compared with $23.0 million in Q4 2025, and $19.4 million in Q1 2025 last year. To break down our Q1 2026 revenue for you by product category, Indium Phosphide was $13.6 million, primarily from data center applications. Gallium Arsenide was $5.4 million. Germanium Substrates were $200,000. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q1 was $7.6 million. In Q1 2026, revenue from Asia Pacific was 78%, Europe was 21%, and North America was 1%. The top 5 customers generated approximately 32% of total revenue, and no customers were over the 10% level.

Speaker #3: To break down our Q1 '26 revenue for you by product category, Indian phosphide was 13.6 million. Primarily from data center applications. Gallium arsenide was 5.4 million, germanium substrates were 200,000.

Speaker #3: Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q1 was 7.6 million. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue from Asia Pacific was 78%, Europe was 21%, and North America was 1%.

Speaker #3: The top five customers generated approximately 32% of total revenue, and no customers were over the 10% level. Gross margin showed a substantial improvement in the first quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 29.9%, compared with 21.5% gross margin in Q4 of 2025, and a negative 6.1% gross margin in Q1 of 2025 last year.

Gary Fischer: Gross margin showed a substantial improvement in the Q1. Non-GAAP gross margin was 29.9% compared with 21.5% gross margin in Q4 of 2025, and a -6.1% gross margin in Q1 of 2025 last year. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the Q1 was 29.6%, compared with 20.9% in Q4, and a -6.4% in Q1 of 2025. Moving to operating expenses. Total non-GAAP operating expense in Q1 was $8.6 million, compared with $7.5 million in Q4 and $8.5 million in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: For those who prefer to track results on a gap basis, gross margin in the first quarter was 29.6%, compared with 20.9% in Q4, and a negative 6.4% in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: Moving to operating expenses, total non-gap operating expense in Q1 was 8.6 million, compared with 7.5 million in Q4, and 8.5 million in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: On a gap basis, total operating expenses in Q1 was 9.6 million, compared with 8.7 million in Q4 of 2025 and 9.0 million in Q1 of 2025.

Gary Fischer: On a GAAP basis, total operating expenses in Q1 was $9.6 million, compared to the $8.7 million in Q4 of 2025 and $9.0 million in Q1 of 2025. Our Non-GAAP operating loss for Q1 of 2026 was $550,000, compared to the Non-GAAP operating loss in Q4 of 2025 of $2.6 million, and a Non-GAAP operating loss of $9.6 million in Q1 of 2025. For reference, our GAAP operating line for Q1 of 2026 was a net loss of $1.6 million, compared with an operating loss of $3.8 million in Q4 of 2025, and an operating loss of $10.3 million in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: Our non-gap operating loss for the first quarter of 2026 was 550,000, compared with a non-gap operating loss in Q4 of 2025 of 2.6 million, and a non-gap operating loss of 9.6 million in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: For reference, our gap operating line for the first quarter of 2026 was a net loss of 1.6 million, compared with an operating loss of 3.8 million in Q4 of 2025, and an operating loss of 10.3 million in Q1 of 2025.

Speaker #3: Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the first quarter of 2026 was a net loss of 35,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today.

Gary Fischer: Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for Q1 of 2026 was a net loss of $35,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. In Q1 of 2026, we made substantial progress towards profitability. We had a Non-GAAP net loss of $585,000, or $0.01 per share, compared with a Non-GAAP net loss of $2.3 million or $0.05 per share in Q4, and Non-GAAP net loss in Q1 of 2025 of $8.2 million or $0.19 per share.

Speaker #3: In Q1 of 2026, we made substantial progress towards profitability. We had a non-GAAP net loss of $585,000, or $0.01 per share, compared with a non-GAAP net loss of $2.3 million, or $0.05 per share, in the fourth quarter, and a non-GAAP net loss in Q1 of 2025 of $8.2 million, or $0.19 per share.

Speaker #3: On a gap basis, the net loss in Q1 was 1.6 million or 3 cents per share, compared to a net loss of 3.6 million or 8 cents a share in the fourth quarter, and 8.8 million or 20 cents per share last year in Q1 of 2025.

Gary Fischer: On a GAAP basis, the net loss in Q1 was $1.6 million or $0.03 per share, compared to a net loss of $3.6 million or $0.08 a share in Q4, and $8.8 million or $0.20 per share last year in Q1 of 2025. The weighted average basic shares outstanding in Q1 of 2026 was 53.3 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments decreased by $5.1 million to $123 million as of 31 March. By comparison, at 31 December, it was $128.4 million. Accounts receivable increased by $5.2 million, almost exactly the same as the change in cash. Depreciation and amortization in Q1 was $2.4 million. Total stock comp was $1.0 million.

Speaker #3: The weighted average basic shares outstanding in Q1 of 2026 was 53.3 million. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments decreased by 5.1 million to 123 million as of March 31st.

Speaker #3: By comparison, at December 31st, it was 128.4 million, accounts receivable increased by 5.2 million, almost exactly the same as the change in cash. Depreciation and amortization in the first quarter was 2.4 million, total stock comp was 1.0 million.

Speaker #3: Net inventory was up approximately 8.5 million for the first quarter to 90.2. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary Tongmei in China, on the STAR market in Shanghai, we remain very interested in completing the IPO, particularly in light of the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure buildout in China, and China's development of its semiconductor supply chain, which is fueling increased China-based demand for Indian phosphide substrates.

Gary Fischer: Net inventory was up approximately $8.5 million for Q1 to $90.2. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei, in China on the STAR Market in Shanghai. We remain very interested in completing the IPO, particularly in light of the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out in China and China's development of its semiconductor supply chain, which is fueling increased China-based demand for Indium Phosphide substrates. We have continued to keep our IPO application current, and Tongmei remains in process as a part of a much more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago. Though the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tongmei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate.

Speaker #3: We have continued to keep our IPO application current, and Tongmei remains in process as a part of a much more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago.

Speaker #3: Though the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tongmei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate.

Speaker #3: We will keep you informed of any updates. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets.

Gary Fischer: We will keep you informed of any updates. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?

Speaker #3: Morris?

Speaker #2: Thank you, Gary. This is an incredibly exciting time for AXT. As many of you are aware, last week we completed a capital raise for 632.5 million dollars in support of Tongmei's Indian phosphide capacity expansion.

Morris Young: Thank you, Gary. This is an incredibly exciting time for AXT. As many of you are aware, last week, we completed a capital raise for $632.5 million in support of Tongmei's Indium Phosphide capacity expansion, as well as R&D investment in new products like 6-inch Indium Phosphide and other working capital needs. With our backlog of orders and customer forecasts achieving record levels, we are laser-focused on adding capacity to support customer requirements. I'm pleased to report that we are running ahead of our plan to double our Indium Phosphide capacity this year from Q4 of 2025 levels. Our capability to scale up quickly is unique among our peers.

Speaker #2: As well as R&D investment in new products like six-inch Indian phosphide and other working capital needs. With our backlog of orders and customer forecasts achieving record levels, we are laser-focused on adding capacity to support customer requirements.

Speaker #2: I'm pleased to report that we are running ahead of our plan to double our Indian phosphide capacity this year from Q4 of 2025 levels.

Speaker #2: Our capability to scale up quickly is uniquely among our peers. Unlike our competitors, AXT designs and builds our own crystal growth furnaces, has our own supply of critical raw materials, and has the manufacturing space in place to achieve our expansion goal this year.

Morris Young: Unlike our competitors, AXT designs and builds our own crystal growth furnaces, has our own supply of critical raw materials, and has the manufacturing space in place to achieve our expansion goal this year. As you can imagine, longer-term capacity planning is one of the most important discussions we're having today with customers and major supply chain players in our space. The message we are having for them is this: AXT is stepping up. Beyond our 2026 capacity expansion, we're planning to double our Indium Phosphide capacity again in 2027 with a new facility near our current one that we will be dedicated to Indium Phosphide wafer production. Our 2028 planning is also underway, and we expect to expand again meaningfully. This is an industry in which scale matters. The barrier to entry are high, even for most skilled manufacturers.

Speaker #2: As you can imagine, longer-term capacity planning is one of the most important discussions we're having today with customers and major supply chain players in our space.

Speaker #2: The message we are having for them is this: AXT is stepping up. Beyond our 2026 capacity expansion, we're planning to double our Indian phosphide capacity again in 2027 with a new facility near our current one that we will be dedicated to Indian phosphide wafer production.

Speaker #2: Our 2028 planning is also underway, and we expect to expand again meaningfully. This is an industry in which scale matters; the barrier to entry is high, even for most skilled manufacturers.

Speaker #2: As the market continues to grow, capacity is becoming a critical enabler. What we are hearing from the industry sources and echoing from our customers is the expectation that the market for optical components will increase significantly in the coming years.

Morris Young: As the market continue to grow, capacity has become a critical enabler. What we are hearing from the industry sources and echo from our customers is the expectation that the market for optical components will increase significantly in the coming years, driving a 4 to 6 times increase in substrate market overall in the next 3 to 5 years, driven by both scale out and scale up applications. Beyond pluggable transceivers, we're seeing a very large developing market for CPO, co-packaged optics. We are actively engaging in discussions with customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could represent another inflection point in our business beginning in late 2027 and beyond. With this massive growth cycle ahead of us, we're actively working with a multitude of players from our direct customers to the end customers with whom we have not historically had direct relationships.

Speaker #2: Driving a four to six times increase in substrate market overall in the next three to five years, driven by both scale-out and scale-up applications.

Speaker #2: Beyond probable transceivers, we are seeing a very large developing market for co-pack CPO, co-package optics, we are actively engaging in discussions with customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could represent another inflection point in our business beginning in late 2027 and beyond.

Speaker #2: With this massive growth cycle ahead of us, we're actively working with a multiple multitude of players from our direct customers to the end customers.

Speaker #2: With whom we have not historically had direct relationships. We are there to understand their longer-term requirements and to align our growth and innovation plans accordingly.

Morris Young: We are there to understand their long, longer-term requirements and to align our growth and innovation plans accordingly. This will be a thoughtful and measured process, but we believe we are in a best position competitively to support and enable our industry in meeting its current and future needs. Over the last few quarters, the expansion of our Indium Phosphide customer base has been gratifying. We are now supporting nearly all leading customers in the optical space. This includes tier 1 laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both around the globe and in China. In alignment with our customers' technical requirements and roadmaps, we are making important progress on our 6-inch Indium Phosphide product for both iron doped and sulfur-doped specifications. A significant part of our capacity expansion will be focused on 6-inch crystal growth technology to support the planned roadmap of 6-inch capability by our customers.

Speaker #2: This will be a thoughtful and measured process. But we believe we are in a best position competitively to support and enable our industry in meeting its current and future needs.

Speaker #2: Over the last few quarters, the expansion of our Indian phosphide customer base has been gratifying. We're now supporting nearly all leading customers in the optical space.

Speaker #2: This includes Tier 1 laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both around the globe and in China. In alignment with our customers' technical requirements, and roadmaps, we're making important progress on our six-inch Indian phosphide product for both iron-doped and sulfur-doped specifications.

Speaker #2: A significant part of our capacity expansion will be focused on six-inch crystal growth technology to support a plant roadmap of six-inch capability by our customers.

Speaker #2: We're excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speeds and greater sophistication for both scale-up and scale-out applications.

Morris Young: We're excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speeds and greater sophistication for both scale up and scale out applications. Turning to Q1. Export permits in our Q1 came in as slightly better than our guidance and are off to a solid start in Q2. Gary will take you through our full guidance in a few minutes. We're expecting to achieve sequential revenue growth in Q2, driven primarily by growth in Indium Phosphide. In fact, Q2 will be expected to be our largest quarter for Indium Phosphide in AXT's history. This derives from an Indium Phosphide backlog that has now reached a new high of over $100 million.

Speaker #2: Now turning to Q1. Export permits in our first quarter came in a slightly better than our guidance, and are off to a solid start in Q2.

Speaker #2: Gary will take you through our full guidance in a few minutes, but we're expecting to achieve sequential revenue growth in Q2. Driven primarily by growth in Indian phosphide.

Speaker #2: In fact, Q2 will be expected to be our largest quarter for Indian phosphide in AXT's history. This derives from an Indian phosphide backlog that has now reached a new high of over 100 million dollars.

Speaker #2: As we mentioned last quarter, customers are giving us more visibility into their expected demand and working closely with them in this supply-constrained environment to meet their need as we continue to expand our capacity.

Morris Young: As we mentioned last quarter, customers are giving us more visibility into their expected demand and working closely with them in this supply-constrained environment to meet their need as we continue to expand our capacity. From a geographic demand perspective, the massive AI infrastructure build-out and planned CapEx spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the US is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers, as well as high-speed photodetectors. We believe that today our material is being used in multiple US hyperscalers. We expect that end customers' use will continue to broaden. We're also seeing significant growth in China as China moves to accelerate its capability throughout the AI supply chain. Our revenue related to Indium Phosphide-based laser market in China more than doubled in Q1 from the prior quarter, and we expect them to double again in Q2.

Speaker #2: For our geographic demand perspective, the massive AI infrastructure build-out and planned capex spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the US is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers.

Speaker #2: As well as high-speed photodetectors. We believe that today, our material is being used in multiple U.S. hyperscalers; we expect that end customers' use will continue to broaden.

Speaker #2: We're also seeing significant growth in China as China moves to accelerate its capability throughout the AI supply chain. Our revenue-related to Indian phosphide-based laser market in China more than doubled in Q1 from the prior quarter, and we expect them to double again in Q2.

Speaker #2: This highlights China's increasing investment in AI infrastructure supply chain, for the global market. This is a great opportunity for AXT as there is no permit required to ship our product within China.

Morris Young: This highlights China's increasing investment in AI infrastructure supply chain for the global market. This is a great opportunity for AXT as there is no permit required to ship our product within China. Turning to Gallium Arsenide. In Q1, demand for semiconducting wafers for industry, robotics, and data center lasers applications all held steady from the prior quarter. We continue to see demand for semi-insulating wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have a strong opportunity for market share expansion. This is gated primarily by our ability to obtain export license, which came in light in Q1. Our raw material business continue to be a crown jewel in our growth strategy. We're pleased to report that our subsidiary, Jinmei, has begun to refine high-purity indium, which gives us direct control of a guaranteed supply of another critical material for our Indium Phosphide substrates.

Speaker #2: Turning to gallium arsenide. In Q1, demand for semiconducting wafers for industry robotics and data center lasers applications all held steady for the prior quarter.

Speaker #2: We continue to see demand for semi-insulin wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have a strong opportunity for market share expansion. However, this is gated primarily by our ability to obtain export license which came in light in Q1.

Speaker #2: Finally, our raw material business continues to be a crown jewel in our growth strategy. We're pleased to report that our subsidiary Jingmei has begun to refine high-purity Indian, which gives us direct control of a guaranteed supply of other critical material for our Indian phosphide substrates.

Speaker #2: We're also investing to help Jingmei expand its capability so that our AXT's demand grows; Jingmei will continue to provide a meaningful portion of our raw material requirements.

Morris Young: We're also investing to help JinMei expand its capability so that our AXT's demand grows, JinMei will continue to provide a meaningful portion of our raw material requirements. Globally, there continue to be a greater awareness of the importance of earth's materials, and we are decades ahead of the curve in developing our unique integrated supply chain. We continue to invest in our portfolio as we believe it's a major competitive differentiator. In summary, we believe AXT is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company's history. The investment we're making today in capacity, in technology, and in our unique integrated supply chain positions us to meet extraordinary demand we see building across the optical and AI infrastructure markets. Our customer engagement is deepening, our visibility is improving, and our competitive differentiation is strong.

Speaker #2: Globally, there continues to be greater awareness of the importance of earth materials, and we are decades ahead of the curve in developing our unique integrated supply chain.

Speaker #2: We'll continue to invest in our portfolio, as we believe it's a major competitive differentiator. In summary, we believe AXT is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company's history.

Speaker #2: The investment we are making today in capacity, in technology, and in our unique integrated supply chain positions us to meet extraordinary demand we see building across the optical and AI infrastructure markets.

Speaker #2: Our customer engagement is deepening our visibility is improving and our competitive differentiation is strong. While we remain disciplined and thoughtful in our execution, we're confident that the groundwork are laying out now will enable us for meaningful growth in the years to come.

Morris Young: While we remain disciplined and thoughtful in our execution, we're confident that the groundwork, laying out now will enable us for meaningful growth in the years to come. With that, I turn the call back to Gary for our Q2 guidance. Gary?

Speaker #2: With that, I turn the call back to Gary for our second quarter guidance. Gary, thank you, Morris. To reiterate a couple of key points from Morris's commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our Indian phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle.

Gary Fischer: Thank you, Morris. To reiterate a couple of key points from Morris' commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our Indium Phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle. Given the geopolitical complexities surrounding this market trend, our customer base is diversifying and expanding, and customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs. With all of these positive market and AXT specific growth drivers, the most significant single factor to our growth in Q2 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits. Therefore, guiding for future revenue is somewhat tricky for us right now as we cannot predict future timing of permits or our success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order.

Speaker #2: Given the geopolitical complexity surrounding this market trend, our customer base is diversifying and expanding, and customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs.

Speaker #2: With all of these positive market and AXT-specific growth drivers, the most significant single factor to our growth in Q2 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits.

Speaker #2: Therefore, guiding for future revenue is somewhat tricky for us right now, as we cannot predict future timing of permits or our success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order.

Speaker #2: But drawing on what we know and what we've experienced thus far, in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight into our expectations for Q2.

Gary Fischer: Drawing on what we know and what we've experienced thus far in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight into our expectations for Q2. As of today, we have approximately $34 million in revenue that can be realized in Q2 across our substrate product lines and raw materials, for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q2. We could see upside, even significant upside, to this number in Q2 should we receive permits for additional orders for which we have the inventory to support.

Speaker #2: As of today, we have approximately 34 million in revenue that can be realized in Q2 across our substrate product lines and raw materials for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required.

Speaker #2: We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q2. We could see upside even significant upside to this number in Q2 should we receive permits for additional orders for which we have the inventory to support.

Speaker #2: But we do not want to but we do want to stress that the timing for permit issuance is not predictable nor in our control and doesn't align with our quarterly reporting.

Gary Fischer: We do not want to stress that the timing for permit issuance is not predictable, nor in our control, and doesn't align with our quarterly reporting. We continue to focus on gross margin improvement. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to revenue mixed by product, absorption of fixed cost, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency. With regards to OPEX, we expect that it'll be approximately $9.3 million in Q2 on a non-GAAP basis and approximately $10 million on a GAAP basis. With these factors in mind, we expect to achieve profitability on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis in Q2.

Speaker #2: We continue to focus on gross margin improvement, further improvement depends on a number of factors including total revenue as it relates to revenue mixed by product, absorption of fixed costs, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency.

Speaker #2: With regards to OPEX, we expect that it will be approximately 9.3 million in Q2 on a non-gap basis and approximately 10 million on a gap basis.

Speaker #2: With these factors in mind, we expect to achieve profitability on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis in Q2. We believe our non-GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.06 to $0.08, and our GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.05 to $0.07.

Gary Fischer: We believe our non-GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.06 to $0.08, our GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.05 to $0.07. We estimate share count for Q2 will be approximately 63.5 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We'll be glad to answer your questions now. Tracy?

Speaker #2: We estimate share count for Q2 will be approximately 63.5 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We'd be glad to answer your questions now.

Speaker #2: Tracy, thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one now to raise your hand.

Tracy: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one now to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Finally, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by now while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Tim Savageau with Northland Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one now to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Finally, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by now while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Tim Savageau with Northland Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality.

Speaker #2: If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Finally, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by now while we compile the Q&A roster.

Speaker #2: Your first question comes from the line of Tim Savageau with Northland Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead. Hey, good afternoon. And congrats on the step up and backlog and the strong guidance for next quarter in Indian phosphide.

Tim Savageau: Hey, good afternoon, and congrats on the step up in backlog, and the strong guidance for next quarter in Indium Phosphide. Guess my first question, you know, you mentioned backlog and customer forecasts at record levels, and we certainly saw that with $100 million in backlog. You know, with regards to long-term capacity planning with customers, you know, are you at the point of, you know, coming to any sort of long-term supply agreements with various customers? If so, you know, what's the kind of, what sort of timing might you'd expect on that? Thanks.

Tim Savageaux: Hey, good afternoon, and congrats on the step up in backlog, and the strong guidance for next quarter in Indium Phosphide. Guess my first question, you know, you mentioned backlog and customer forecasts at record levels, and we certainly saw that with $100 million in backlog. You know, with regards to long-term capacity planning with customers, you know, are you at the point of, you know, coming to any sort of long-term supply agreements with various customers? If so, you know, what's the kind of, what sort of timing might you'd expect on that? Thanks.

Speaker #2: I guess my first question you mentioned backlog and customer forecasts at record levels and we certainly saw that with $100 million in backlog. With regards to long-term capacity planning with customers, are you at the point of coming to any sort of long-term supply agreements with various customers and if so, what's the kind of what sort of timing might you expect on that?

Speaker #2: Thanks.

Speaker #3: Same follow-up.

Tim Bettles: Tim-

Tim Savageau: One follow-up.

Tim Savageaux: One follow-up.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Tim. Yes, we're talking to a number of customers right now on long-term supply agreements. As we build our capacity out and try and understand where their demand is going, nearly all of the larger customers in this space are talking to long-term talking about long-term supply agreements with us.

Tim Bettles: Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Tim. Yes, we are. We're talking to a number of customers right now on long-term supply agreements as we build our capacity out and try and understand where their demand is going. Nearly all of the larger customers in this space are talking about long-term supply agreements with us. We expect to come to resolution with some of those in the very near future.

Speaker #2: And we expect to come to a resolution with some of those in the very near future.

Speaker #3: Great. And just following up on that, I'm sorry, go ahead.

Tim Savageau: Great.

Tim Savageaux: Great.

Tim Bettles: Tim-

Tim Savageau: Following up on that. I'm sorry, go ahead.

Tim Savageaux: Following up on that. I'm sorry, go ahead.

Speaker #2: Oh, no. Just saying it's your turn, Tim. Tim, yes.

Tim Bettles: Oh, no. Just saying it's your turn, Tim. Tim S.

Speaker #3: Okay, Roger that. Just an update — you'd mentioned last quarter that you were developing some relationships with Tier 1 customers or Tier 1 suppliers who hadn't necessarily been close relationships or customers over time.

Tim Savageau: Okay. Roger that. Just an update, you'd mentioned last quarter that you were developing some relationships with tier 1 customers or tier 1 suppliers who hadn't, you know, necessarily been, you know, close relationships or customers over time. I wonder if we can get an update on that, and I have one more follow-up after that.

Tim Savageaux: Okay. Roger that. Just an update, you'd mentioned last quarter that you were developing some relationships with tier 1 customers or tier 1 suppliers who hadn't, you know, necessarily been, you know, close relationships or customers over time. I wonder if we can get an update on that, and I have one more follow-up after that.

Speaker #3: I wonder if we can get an update on that. And I have one more follow-up after that.

Speaker #2: Yes. Thanks, Tim. That's going really well, actually. We've got qualification wafers in with a lot of customers and we're finding paths and avenues to get wafers into a lot of these Tier 1 customers.

Tim Bettles: Yes. Thanks, Tim. That's going really well, actually. We've got qualification wafers in with a lot of customers, and we're finding paths and avenues to get wafers into a lot of these tier 1 customers. You know, we've, as we see this market grow, there's a lot of opportunity for us. We've said in the past that we've really been focused on these next-generation technology products that require high-quality material that, frankly, only AXT can build and supply. Of course, with emerging supply chain constraints with indium phosphide, we are in the strongest position to grow capacity. We're qualifying, and we're supplying wafers to a lot of new tier 1 customers in this field. It's exciting times for us.

Speaker #2: We've as we see this market grow, there's a lot of opportunity for us. And we've said in the past that we've really been focused on these next-generation technology products.

Speaker #2: That require high-quality material that, frankly, only AXT can build and can supply. And of course, with emerging supply chain constraints with Indian phosphide, we are in the strongest position to grow capacity.

Speaker #2: So we are we're qualifying and we're supplying wafers to a lot of new Tier 1 customers in this field. So it's exciting times for us.

Speaker #4: Yeah. I want to add one point because I think Tim, you are the front soldier. You're talking to them. But from my perspective, I started to hear, let's say, three months ago was some of the Tier 1 customers.

Morris Young: Yeah. I want to add one point because I think, you know, Tim, you are the front soldier, you're talking to them. From my perspective, I started to hear, let's say, 3 months ago, was some of the tier 1 customers. Now I'm starting to hear even add on to it is the end hyperscalers we're hearing. In other words, the customer's customer, the end users, are also interested in seeing how we develop the supply chain guarantee for their growth plan.

Speaker #4: But now I'm starting to hear even add on to it is the end hyperscalers we're hearing. In other words, the customers' customer, the end users are also interested in seeing how we develop the supply chain guarantee for their growth plan.

Speaker #2: Yeah, that's correct, Morris. That's a good point. So there's been a lot of press releases out about long-term supply agreements into our customers. From the hyperscalers and from the hardware companies.

Tim Bettles: Yeah, that's correct, Morris. It's a good point. You know, there's been a lot of press releases out about long-term supply agreements into our customers from the hyperscalers and from the hardware companies. There's been a lot of encouragement from those hyperscalers and hardware companies for their suppliers to enter into long-term supply agreements with AXT. That is actually driving a lot of the discussions, I think, that we're having on long-term supply agreements. Of course, it's given us a lot more visibility into what the market demands are at the hyperscaler side of things and how that trickles down to demands for AXT. It also gives us a lot of visibility into technical demands as we move forward into high-end lasers and detectors in these new products.

Speaker #2: And there's been a lot of encouragement from those hyperscalers and hardware companies for their suppliers to enter into long-term supply agreements with AXT. So that is actually driving a lot of the discussions, I think, that we're having on long-term supply agreements.

Speaker #2: And of course, it's given us a lot more visibility into what the market demands are at the hyperscaler side of things and how that trickles down to demands for AXT.

Speaker #2: It also gives us a lot of visibility into technical demands as we move forward into high-end lasers and detectors in these new products.

Speaker #3: Great. And that makes sense. And maybe somewhat related to those discussions, I'd be interested in an update on what you're seeing in terms of pricing for Indian phosphide substrates.

Tim Savageau: Great. That makes sense and maybe somewhat related to those discussions. I'd be interested in an update on what you're seeing in terms of pricing for Indium Phosphide substrates.

Tim Savageaux: Great. That makes sense and maybe somewhat related to those discussions. I'd be interested in an update on what you're seeing in terms of pricing for Indium Phosphide substrates.

Speaker #2: Yeah. That's a good question. Again, thanks, Tim. So what we are doing is we are raising some of our prices. We're seeing some recent pricing increase in raw materials and specifically with India.

Tim Bettles: Yeah, that's a good question. Again, thanks, Tim. What we are doing is we are raising some of our prices. We're seeing some recent price increase in raw materials, and specifically with indium. We're having conversations with our customers to align our costs and maintain gross margins, maintain or grow gross margins. We're also starting to globalize or we've been globalizing our pricing. Obviously, certain geographical regions have been more aggressive in the past on price targets, especially when we're looking at the lower-end markets such as GPON. We're starting to globalize our markets so that it is more standardized across those geographical regions.

Speaker #2: So we're having conversations with our customers to align our costs and maintain gross margins, maintain or grow gross margins. We're also starting to globalize or we've been globalizing our pricing.

Speaker #2: Obviously, certain geographical regions have been more aggressive in the past on price targets, especially when we're looking at the lower-end markets such as GPOM.

Speaker #2: So we're starting to globalize our markets so that it is more standardized across those geographical regions.

Speaker #4: Well, let me add on to that. I think nevertheless, I think the pricing opportunity for us, I believe, is also the fact we're migrating more towards larger size.

Gary Fischer: Well, let me add on to that. I think nevertheless, I think the pricing opportunity for us, I believe, is also the fact we're migrating more towards larger size. As you know, some of the smaller size, they are more traditional, they are more price sensitive, and they are more competitor who can fill that shoes. When you get to 4 inch and 6 inch, and then as well, as well as higher, specification requirements, then we can really demand, you know, that's where our product shines.

Morris Young: Well, let me add on to that. I think nevertheless, I think the pricing opportunity for us, I believe, is also the fact we're migrating more towards larger size. As you know, some of the smaller size, they are more traditional, they are more price sensitive, and they are more competitor who can fill that shoes. When you get to 4 inch and 6 inch, and then as well, as well as higher, specification requirements, then we can really demand, you know, that's where our product shines.

Speaker #4: As you know, some of the smaller sizes are more traditional. They are more price-sensitive. And there are more competitors who can fulfill their shoes.

Speaker #4: But when you get to 4-inch and 6-inch, and then as well as higher specification requirements, then we can really demand there—our product shines.

Speaker #3: Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

Tim Savageau: Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

Tim Savageaux: Okay. Thanks very much. Appreciate it.

Speaker #4: Thanks, Tim.

Gary Fischer: Thanks, Tim.

Speaker #1: Your next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tracy: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Bryson with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Bryson with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Hey, thanks for taking my question and great results. I just wanted to hone in on the gross margins a bit. Q1. I'm not quite getting to the peak you had in Q2 or in Q2, I'm not quite getting to the peak back in the COVID timeframe.

Matthew Bryson: Hey, thanks for taking my question and great results. I just wanted to hone in on gross margins a bit. Obviously you saw a pretty big uptick in Q1. I'm not quite getting to the peak you had in Q2 or in Q2, I'm not quite getting the peak back in the COVID timeframe, but I'm getting pretty close. I guess, could you talk a little bit about how much of that is higher utilization levels versus how much of it is increased pricing and whether my math is roughly accurate?

Matt Bryson: Hey, thanks for taking my question and great results. I just wanted to hone in on gross margins a bit. Obviously you saw a pretty big uptick in Q1. I'm not quite getting to the peak you had in Q2 or in Q2, I'm not quite getting the peak back in the COVID timeframe, but I'm getting pretty close. I guess, could you talk a little bit about how much of that is higher utilization levels versus how much of it is increased pricing and whether my math is roughly accurate?

Speaker #5: But I'm getting pretty close I guess. Could you talk a little bit about how much of that is higher utilization levels versus how much of it is increased pricing and whether my math is roughly accurate?

Speaker #2: Well, for Q1, there is some that's a result of increased pricing. But the primary drivers are the traditional two drivers that we highlight. One is, volume is up.

Gary Fischer: Well, for Q1, there is some that's a result of increased pricing, but the primary drivers are the traditional two drivers that we highlight. One is volume is up. The other is the mix is rich towards Indium Phosphide. As a matter of fact, if you look at it percentage-wise, Indium Phosphide was just a tad north over 50% of total revenue. It's really helped in that. The pricing effects are being put in place, but we'll see the impact from your viewpoint, Matt, for your eyes. Your eyes will see that later this year.

Speaker #2: And the other is the mix is rich towards Indian phosphide. As a matter of fact, if you look at it percentage-wise, Indian phosphide was just a tad north over 50% of total revenue.

Speaker #2: So it’s really helped, in that the pricing effects are being put in place, but we’ll see them—we’ll see the impact from your viewpoint, Matt, for your eyes.

Speaker #2: Your eyes will see that later this year.

Speaker #5: Got it. Just a Q2, Gary, if I said that the gross margins are coming in roughly around 40%, is that in the ballpark? And again, can you just talk to how much that's mix versus utilization versus pricing?

Matthew Bryson: Got it. Just Q2, Gary, if I said that the gross margins are coming in roughly around 40%, is that in the ballpark? Again, can you just talk to how much that's mix versus utilization versus pricing?

Matt Bryson: Got it. Just Q2, Gary, if I said that the gross margins are coming in roughly around 40%, is that in the ballpark? Again, can you just talk to how much that's mix versus utilization versus pricing?

Speaker #2: Yeah. I don't have your forecast in front of me, but I think that's too aggressive. And you know us—we like to be a little bit more conservative.

Gary Fischer: Yeah, I don't have your forecast in front of me, but I think that's too aggressive. You know, you know us, we like to be a little bit more conservative. You know, we're definitely going to be crossing the 30% threshold, which we've said for several years, if we can get to $30 million in revenue and have a good mix, then we could be above 30% in gross margin. But I think you're probably, you know, it's up to you, but I'd encourage you to, you know, maybe knock that down a bit. We can talk about it maybe later. Having said that, we're both on the right direction. Gross margins should go up, and we feel very confident that they will.

Speaker #2: So we're definitely going to be crossing the 30% threshold, which we said for several years if we can get to 30 million in revenue and have a good mix and we could be above 30% in gross margin.

Speaker #2: But I would I think you're probably it's up to you. But I'd encourage you to maybe knock that down a bit. We can talk about it maybe later, so.

Speaker #2: But having said that, we're both on the right direction. Gross margins should go up. And we feel very confident that they will. And we have to how fast and what we calculate is to be determined.

Gary Fischer: You know, we have to, you know, how fast and what we calculate is to be determined. All the indicators are exactly what I've been saying for many years now. The mix is rich for Indium Phosphide, and the volume is up. You know, it's a unique sort of transition for us. It's, you know, inside the company, we're very pleased, so.

Speaker #2: But all the indicators are exactly what I’ve been saying for many years now. And the mix is rich for indium phosphide. And the volume is up.

Speaker #2: And so it's a unique sort of transition for us that's inside the company. We're very pleased, very pleased, so.

Speaker #4: Yeah. I do want to add on a point about this. I mean, obviously, Gary, you own the gross margin calculation. But I would argue the shine.

Tim Bettles: Yeah, I do want to add another point about this. I mean, obviously, Gary, you own the gross margin calculation, but I would argue

Morris Young: Yeah, I do want to add another point about this. I mean, obviously, Gary, you own the gross margin calculation, but I would argue, the supply chain strategy will start to shine. You know, I always say AXT is like a choo-choo train. We're the locomotive. We're chugging along. When we are accelerating, all the box behind us, such as our JinMei, Boyu, which makes our crucibles, high-purity materials, et cetera, they all are gonna chug along with us. When we slow down, of course, they will crash against us. Right now is a good time. We're chugging along very strongly. You can see their contribution to our, you know, ability to make profit will grow too.

Morris Young: The supply chain strategy will start to shine. You know, I always say AXT is like a choo-choo train. We're the locomotive. We're chugging along. When we are accelerating, all the box behind us, such as our JinMei, Boyu, which makes our crucibles, high-purity materials, et cetera, they all are gonna chug along with us. When we slow down, of course, they will crash against us. Right now is a good time. We're chugging along very strongly. You can see their contribution to our, you know, ability to make profit will grow too.

Speaker #4: I always say the AXTs like a ChuChu train. We're the locomotive. We're chugging along. When we are accelerating, all the box behind us, such as our Jingmei, Boyu, which makes our crucibles high-purity materials, etc., they're also going to chug along with us.

Speaker #4: When we slow down, of course, they will crash against us. But right now, it's a good time. We're chugging along very strongly. So you're going to see their contribution to our ability to make profit will grow too.

Speaker #5: Got it. And then just my one follow-up is I noticed going back to the last filing that you've got an export licenses. I think for Evergeography, except for the US.

Matthew Bryson: Got it. Just my one follow-up is, I noticed coming back to the last filing that you'd gotten export licenses, I think for every geography except for the US. Just any more thoughts on getting licenses for shipping to the US, and how important is that in terms of being able to fully utilize that additional capacity you're bringing on?

Matt Bryson: Got it. Just my one follow-up is, I noticed coming back to the last filing that you'd gotten export licenses, I think for every geography except for the US. Just any more thoughts on getting licenses for shipping to the US, and how important is that in terms of being able to fully utilize that additional capacity you're bringing on?

Speaker #5: Just any more thoughts on getting licenses for shipping to the US and how important is that in terms of being able to fully utilize that additional capacity you're bringing on?

Morris Young: I don't think we're giving up the United States. No. It's still pending.

Speaker #2: Wait. I don't think we're giving up the United States. No. It's still pending.

Morris Young: I don't think we're giving up the United States. No. It's still pending.

Speaker #5: Right. We're still Matt, we're still being encouraged to apply for export permits. For US customers, both in the US and in other global regions, so at the moment, obviously, we're getting we are getting permits pretty readily.

Tim Bettles: Right. We're still, you know, Matt, we're still being encouraged to apply for export permits for US customers, both in the US and in other global regions. You know, at the moment, obviously, we are getting permits pretty readily for US customers based in other global regions. That, as Morris said, that doesn't mean that we are completely stopping any work on trying to obtain permits for the US. We've been contacted by the Ministry of Commerce in China on a number of US applications right now to submit more data that gives us an encouraging sign that they're still looking at US-based permits, and there's still a possibility to get a permit for the US in the near future. As I say.

Speaker #5: For US customers based in other global regions, but that is Morris said, that doesn't mean that we are completely stopping any work on trying to obtain permits for the US.

Speaker #5: We've been commented or we've been contacted by the Ministry of Commerce in China on a number of US applications right now to submit more data that gives us an encouraging sign that there's still looking at US-based permits and there's still a possibility to get a permit for the US in the near future.

Speaker #5: As I say, so we are definitely looking at that avenue. And in the meantime, we are supplying wafers globally to other regions as well.

Tim Bettles: We are definitely looking at that avenue. In the meantime, we are supplying wafers, globally to other regions as well. This is a very global supply chain, and it's a very global market, and I think we're taking advantage of all the avenues that we can.

Speaker #5: So this is a very global supply chain. And it's a very global market. And I think we're taking advantage of all the avenues that we can.

Speaker #5: Yeah. Thanks. And I didn't mean to intimate that you weren't getting going to get a US permit or weren't still working on it. I just want an update and that was also an update.

Matthew Bryson: Yeah, thanks. I didn't mean to intimate that you weren't gonna get a US permit or weren't still get working on it. I just wanted an update, and that was an also update. Thanks for giving us.

Matt Bryson: Yeah, thanks. I didn't mean to intimate that you weren't gonna get a US permit or weren't still get working on it. I just wanted an update, and that was an also update. Thanks for giving us.

Speaker #5: Thanks again, guys.

Speaker #2: No problem.

Tim Bettles: No problem.

Speaker #1: Just a reminder that if you would like to ask a question or a follow-up, please press star one to raise your hand now. Your next question comes from the line of Charles Xi with Needham.

Tracy: Just a reminder that if you would like to ask a question or a follow-up, please press star one to raise your hand now. Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Operator: Just a reminder that if you would like to ask a question or a follow-up, please press star one to raise your hand now. Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #1: Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask you more about the capacity and the capacity build plan here. I think your last COVID high for Indian phosphide quarterly record was 17.7 million.

Charles Shi: Hi, thanks for taking my question. wanna ask you more about the capacity and the capacity build for plan here. I think your last COVID high for Indium Phosphide quarterly record was $17.7 million. That was achieved in Q2 2022. You are basically implying you're gonna be at or above that level in this coming Q2. I recall back in 2022, you probably also built above that 17.7, because back then you thought you would have Indium Phosphide demand from the premium electronics company for smartphone applications. wanna ask you this: what's the max factory output for your existing factory today? How utilized is the existing factory, and what's the expected capacity factory output once you add the next two factories?

Speaker #2: That was achieved in the second quarter of 2022. Are you basically implying you're going to be at or above that level in this coming Q2? But I recall back in 2022, you probably also built above that 17.7 because back then you thought you would have indium phosphide demand from the premium electronics company for smartphone applications.

Speaker #2: So I want to ask you this. What's the max factory output for your existing factory today? How utilized is the existing factory? And what's the expected capacity factory output once you add the next two factories?

Speaker #2: I mean, I think that's something you talked about after the follow-on offering. And if you can provide any color on the numbers, that would be great.

Charles Shi: I mean, I think that's something you talked about after the follow-on offering. If you can provide any color on the numbers, that would be great.

Morris Young: I usually take the last digit out. We usually say our highest Indium Phosphide revenue per quarter was $17 million. You have a very good memory. Okay. We did say in Q4, we said we have increased our capacity about 25% in Q4 of 2025. In 2026, we're gonna double that. Okay? In my calculation on our own capacity planning, we think we're gonna get about $35 million per quarter capability by the end of 2026. Okay? Don't forget, that's the end of 2026. In other words, the capacity are increasing every month, every time we as we talk about. I mean, in the next quarter, our Indium Phosphide revenue is gonna be above, up and beyond the $17 million per quarter.

Speaker #4: Yeah. I usually take the last digit out. We usually say our highest Indian phosphide revenue per quarter was 17 million dollars. You have a very good memory.

Speaker #4: Okay. And we did say in Q4, we said we have increased our capacity by about 25% in Q4 of 2025. And in 2026, we're going to double that.

Speaker #4: Okay. So in my calculation, our own capacity planning within we're going to get about 35 million dollars per quarter capability by the end of 2026.

Speaker #4: Okay. But don't forget, that's the end of 2026. In other words, the capacity is increasing every month, every time as we talk about. Look, I mean, in the next quarter, Indian phosphide revenue is going to be up and beyond the 17 million dollars per quarter.

Tim Bettles: It'll be a new record.

Speaker #4: Yeah. It'll be a new record in Q2. Okay. But the other capacity we also mentioned is that we are acquiring another piece of land near our existing factory in Beijing right now, which we're in the process of negotiating—buying the land and doing the design.

Morris Young: Yeah. It will be a new record in Q2. Okay? The other capacity we also mentioned about is that we are acquiring other piece of land near our existing factory in Beijing right now, which is we are, we're in the process of negotiating buying the land and doing the design. We're probably gonna start building it, because it's a greenfield, it will probably take us about a year, maybe a year and a half to complete that expansion, okay? You know, our capacity expansion is sort of in stages, you know. For instance, our, you know, the clean room is the most critical because if you don't have a clean room, you don't have no space to put in your machine. So that's very difficult.

Speaker #4: And we probably are going to start building it. But because it's a greenfield, it probably it will probably take us about a year maybe a year and a half to complete that expansion.

Speaker #4: Okay. However, our capacity expansion is sort of in stages. For instance, sometimes the clean room is the most critical because if you don't have a clean room, you don't have any space to put in your machine.

Speaker #4: So that's very digital. And but some of the crystal growth capacity is more incremental. Okay. So right now, the clean room capacity is greater, much greater than our crystal growth capacity.

Morris Young: Some of the crystal growth capacity is more incremental, okay. Right now, the clean room capacity is greater, much greater than our crystal growth capacity. As we speak now, we're increasing our capacity sort of gradually. I think in the next year or so, once the greenfield is up for construction, then I think it would be more logical to expand our clean room capacity. I mean, do you have anything to add, Tim?

Speaker #4: So as we speak now, we're increasing our capacity sort of gradually. But I think in the next year or so, once the greenfield is up for construction, then I think it would be more digital to expand our clean room capacity.

Speaker #4: I mean, do you have anything to add, Tim?

Speaker #2: Yeah. So I just wanted to add a little bit. Morris talked about doubling our capacity to a rate of 35 million dollars per quarter in Indian phosphide by the end of this year.

Tim Bettles: Yeah. I just wanted to add a little bit. Morris talked about doubling our capacity to a rate of $35 million per Q in Indium Phosphide by the end of this year. Remember, that's in a brownfield site that was once a crystal growth facility used for Gallium Arsenide. As we relocated Gallium Arsenide, we've been able to move into that. We've been extremely fortunate that we're in a position I think that nobody else in the Indium Phosphide world is in, that we can double our capacity so quickly. You know, looking into the next growth, as Morris just mentioned, we're acquiring a facility which is right next door to us. Again, extremely fortunate. The building is already there, and that allows us to double yet again.

Speaker #2: Remember, that's in a brownfield site. That was once a crystal growth facility used for gallium arsenide. And as we relocated gallium arsenide, we've been able to move into that.

Speaker #2: So we've been extremely fortunate that we're in a position, I think, that nobody else in the Indian phosphide world is in, that we can double our capacity so quickly.

Speaker #2: Looking into the next growth, as Morris just mentioned, we are acquiring a facility which is right next door to us. Again, extremely fortunate—the building is already there.

Speaker #2: And that allows us to double yet again. So by the time we've completed that expansion, which should be by the end of 2027, maybe early 2028, we should be at the region of somewhere in the region of 65 to 70 million dollars of capacity per quarter.

Tim Bettles: By the time we've completed that expansion, which should be by the end of 2027, maybe early 2028, we should be at the region of somewhere in the region of $65 to 70 million of capacity per quarter. That really takes us to the type of capacity that we're expecting to see in our existing locations. As Morris mentioned again in his call or in his script as we talked earlier, we are now looking at where we need to go from here. We are looking at other opportunities and other ways to expand beyond that, probably in a greenfield site somewhere else.

Speaker #2: So that really takes us to the type of capacity that we're expecting to see in our existing locations. And then as Morris mentioned again in his call or in his script, as we talked earlier, we're now looking at where we need to go from here.

Speaker #2: So, we're looking at other opportunities and other ways to expand beyond that, probably in a greenfield site somewhere else.

Speaker #4: Yeah. And that's what 2028.

Morris Young: Yeah. That's for 2028.

Speaker #2: Correct.

Tim Bettles: Correct.

Speaker #4: Yeah.

Morris Young: Yeah.

Speaker #2: So let me be a bit more specific as sort of the detailed guide. But 17 million which we've already achieved. By the end of this year, we'll be at 35 million.

Gary Fischer: Let me be a bit more specific as sort of the detail guy, but $17 million, which we've already achieved. By the end of this year, we'll be at $35 million.

Morris Young: Per quarter.

Gary Fischer: Per quarter.

Speaker #2: Per quarter. So that's times four. 35, 140 million. Per year.

Morris Young: Mm-hmm.

Gary Fischer: That's times 4, $140 million?

Morris Young: Per quarter?

Gary Fischer: Per year.

Tim Bettles: Yeah.

Speaker #4: Yeah.

Morris Young: Yeah.

Speaker #2: Yeah. So we'll have that capacity at the end of 2026 to do 140 million.

Morris Young: Yeah.

Gary Fischer: We'll have the capacity at the end of 2026 to do $140 million.

Speaker #4: Yeah. But you cannot do that because the capacity is continually increasing. You can't use the.

Morris Young: Yeah, you cannot do that because of the capacity is continually increasing.

Gary Fischer: Yeah, yeah.

Morris Young: You can't use the end of the year.

Gary Fischer: It's not digital. It's analog. A year later, it'll be $280 million. It's double, double.

Speaker #2: Not digital. It's analog. A year later, it'll be 280 million, so. So it's double, double, double.

Speaker #3: Thanks. Maybe a follow-up on the capacity expansion, right? I think this is not like I come up with a question, but the investors do ask.

Charles Shi: Thanks. Maybe a follow-up on the capacity expansion, right? I think, this is not like I come up with a question, but investors do ask this question. When you think about your capacity expansion, why can't you do the China plus one type of a strategy like many companies in the global economic electronic supply chain? Like, maybe you should continue to build in China to satisfy China demand, but can you build outside of China maybe to supply to the rest of the world? I know this is an easier said than done. There are policy reasons that may stop you from doing that.

Speaker #3: This question: When you think about your capacity expansion, why can't you do the China-plus-one type of strategy like many companies in the global electronic supply chain?

Speaker #3: Maybe you should continue to build in China. To satisfy China demand, but can you build outside of China? Maybe to supply to the rest of the world.

Speaker #3: And I know there is a this is more this is an easier step than done. There are policy reasons that may stop you from doing that.

Speaker #3: But is there anything you think from the business perspective that is preventing you from doing that? And why? Thank you.

Charles Shi: Is there anything you think from a business perspective that is preventing you from doing that and why? Thank you.

Tim Bettles: Well, there's certainly, there's certainly a lot of opportunity, both within China and outside of China for us to consider that. As I said just now, we're looking to build more capacity in 2028 and beyond, which is gonna be meaningful capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond. As part of that plan, we are working closely with our customer base to understand the long-term requirements and aligning the plans globally, right? Our recent capital raise will be fundamental to expanding, as we enter this next growth plan, which could include more capacity within China, potentially also with capacity outside of China.

Speaker #2: Well, there's certainly a lot of opportunity. Both within China and outside of China, for us to consider that. And as I said just now, we're looking to we're looking to build more capacity in 2028 and beyond, which is going to be meaningful capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond.

Speaker #2: And as part of that plan, we are working closely with our customer base to understand the long-term requirements and aligning the plans globally, right?

Speaker #2: So, our recent capital raise will be fundamental to expanding as we enter this next growth plan, which could include more capacity within China, and potentially also capacity outside of China.

Speaker #4: Yeah, so I do want to add one point. I know you don't want me to say this, okay? I'll tell you. The important thing to answer to investors is that adding capacity versus being able to deliver wafers is two different things.

Morris Young: Yeah. I do want to add 1 point. I know you don't want me to say this, okay? I tell you. Important thing to answer to investors is that adding capacity versus able to deliver wafers is 2 different things. You're gonna hear a lot of people is gonna say, I'm gonna add capacity. Look, Indium Phosphide, I tell you, it's not easy. You know, 1 question a lot of investors asking me is, You gonna double your capacity, why don't you triple or quadruple? Our need is 10 times. It's not easy.

Speaker #4: You're going to hear a lot of people is going to say, "I'm going to add capacity." Look, Indian phosphide, I tell you, it's not easy.

Speaker #4: And one question a lot of investors are asking me is, "Are you going to double your capacity? Why don't you triple or quadruple?" Our need is 10 times.

Speaker #4: It's not easy.

Tim Bettles: Morris, that's a really good point. That's really why our focus on the next 2 years has been focused on Beijing.

Speaker #2: Morris, that's a really good point. And that's really why our focus on the next two years has been focused on Beijing. And increasing the capacity on our existing Beijing-Tongmei site.

Morris Young: Yeah

Morris Young: Yeah.

Tim Bettles: ... and increasing the capacity on our existing Beijing Tongmei site. That is the minimum, the minimum risk that we can absolutely take to get wafers out, not just to increase capacity.

Speaker #2: That is the minimum risk that we can absolutely take to get wafers out, not just to increase capacity.

Morris Young: Well, not only that, it's also for the good of our customers.

Speaker #4: Well, not only that. It's also for the good of our customers. Their demand is so aggressive. The better way or the guaranteed way to satisfy that capacity and we're stretching we're working very hard to answer that demand is to do now, okay?

Tim Bettles: Yes.

Morris Young: Their demand is so aggressive, the better way or the guaranteed way to satisfy that capacity, and we're stretching, we're working very hard to answer that, their demand, is to do now, okay? Do we have other plans? You bet we do. We're stepping up, don't forget.

Speaker #4: Do we have other plans? You bet. We do. We're stepping up. Don't forget.

Speaker #3: Yeah. Thanks, Morris. Like I said, easier step than done. Just felt like that's a question so common that I have to ask. So maybe last question.

Charles Shi: Thanks, Morris. Like I said, easier said than done. Just felt like that's a question so common that I have to ask. Last question. You talk about 6-inch versus maybe 4-inch or below. What's the shipment or shipment is a bad metric here, but what's in the backlog that you're seeing that the mix between 6-inch and the 4-inch or below right now? Wanna get some thoughts around that. If you can, also, we're kinda curious about the mix between iron-doped and sulfur-doped. We know one is for laser, the other is for photodetector. Wanna get some thoughts on what's the mix you expect to mix within that, the $100 million plus backlog. Thanks. That's the last question.

Speaker #3: You talk about six-inch versus maybe four-inch or below. What's the shipment or maybe shipment is a bad metric here, but what's in the backlog that you are seeing that the mix between six-inch and the four-inch or below right now?

Speaker #3: And want to get some thoughts around that. And if you can, also we're kind of curious about the mix between ion doped and sulfur doped that one is for laser, the other is for photodetector.

Speaker #3: I want to get some thoughts on, what's the mix? Expect a mix. Within that, the $100 million-plus backlog. Thanks. That's the last question.

Speaker #4: Okay. Good. So ion doped is coming up big time. We used to see about 10 to 1 in favor of sulfur doped prior to this.

Morris Young: Okay. Yeah. iron-doped is coming up big time. We used to see about 10 to 1 in favor of sulfur-doped prior to this. Right now, I would say the mix, especially the large diameter, is almost like iron-doped is 40%, 60%. Correct, Tim?

Speaker #4: Right now, I would say the mix, especially the large diameter, is almost like ion doped is 40%, 60%. Correct, Tim?

Speaker #2: Yeah. So, when we look at backlog and we look at customer demand over the next few quarters into next year and beyond, what we can see is there's still a lot of three-inch out there.

Tim Bettles: Yeah. When we look at, when we look at backlog, and we look at customer demand over the next few quarters into next year and beyond, what we can see is there's still a lot of 3 inch out there, specifically for the laser. Sulfur-doped is still going strong on 3 inch. There is a transition to 4 inch on N-type material for the laser. Whereas the high speed detector, frankly, has pretty much all transitioned to 4 inch already. We're seeing still a lot of 3 inch coming along, a lot of transitioning over to 4 inch. As we look into the future, of course, 6 inch is incredibly important, and there's a lot of interest and a lot of opportunity out there for 6 inch.

Speaker #2: Specifically for the laser—so, sulfur-doped is still going strong on three-inch. There is a transition to four-inch on N-type material for the laser.

Speaker #2: Whereas the high-speed detector, frankly, has pretty much all transitioned to four-inch already. So we're seeing still a lot of three-inch coming along, a lot of transitioning over to four-inch.

Speaker #2: And as we look as we look into the future, of course, six-inch is incredibly important. And there's a lot of interest and a lot of opportunity out there for six-inch.

Tim Bettles: I'll say at this moment in time, a lot of the production that we're seeing and a lot of our capacity that we're seeing is still focused on the 3 and 4 inch, with a longer term plan to transition to 6 inch within the next probably year or so.

Speaker #2: But I'll say at this moment in time, a lot of the production that we're seeing and a lot of our capacity that we're seeing is still focused on the three and the four-inch.

Speaker #2: With a longer-term plan to transition to six-inch, within the next probably year or so.

Speaker #4: Yeah. The signal is obviously very strong. A lot of customers are telling us, "Can we get more four-inch?" Okay? And six-inch is actually a little bit more out, but people are warning us it's coming.

Morris Young: Yeah. The signal is obviously very strong. A lot of customers are telling us, "Can we get more 4 inch?" Okay. 6 inch is actually a little bit more out, but people are warning us, "It's coming, it's coming." Okay. 4 inch is real. I would say the ratio for 3 inch and 6 inch right now is maybe 4 to 1 in favor of 3 inch. I think going out in about 6 months to 1 year, it could be, I mean, as far as wafer number is concerned, it becomes probably 2 to 1 in favor of 3 inch. 3 inch is still the majority, the larger, the numbers. Because 4 inch is actually at a lower number right now, so it's gonna grow very rapidly in the next coming quarters.

Speaker #4: It's coming. Okay? But four-inch is real. And I would say the ratio for six-inch three-inch and six-inch right now is maybe four to one in favor of three-inch.

Speaker #4: And I think going out in about six months to a year, it could be I mean, as far as wafer numbers concerned, it becomes probably two to one.

Speaker #4: In favor of three-inch. Three-inch is still the majority—the larger the numbers. But because four-inch is actually at a lower number right now, it's going to grow very rapidly.

Speaker #4: In the coming quarters.

Speaker #3: Thanks, great color. I appreciate that. Thank you.

Charles Shi: Thanks. great color. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you, Charles.

Tim Bettles: Thank you, Charles.

Speaker #1: Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig Hallum. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Tracy: Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker #5: Well, hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a couple of questions here. I'd love to understand how do we think about the CAPEX requirements here for these capacity builds.

Richard Shannon: Well, hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a couple questions here. I'd love to understand how do we think about the CapEx requirements here for these capacity builds. You talked about a brownfield one this year that's doubling, and then a greenfield one, I think that's gonna happen in 2028 or maybe in 2027, maybe going into 2028 here that's more greenfield. I wonder if you can give us some numbers or at least some statistics to think about what that's gonna require and over what period of time.

Speaker #5: You talked about a brownfield one this year that's doubling. And then a greenfield one, I think that's going to happen in '28 or maybe in '27, maybe going into '28 here that's more greenfield.

Speaker #5: What if you give us some numbers or at least some statistics to think about what that's going to require and over what period of time?

Speaker #4: Okay. Well, for this year, it's mostly adding high-tech growth equipment for crystal growth. So furnaces, some back-end stuff for polishers, but as Tim and Morris have said, we haven't existing footprint.

Gary Fischer: Okay. Well, for this year, it's mostly adding, you know, high-tech growth equipment for crystal growth. Furnaces, some back-end stuff for polishers. As Tim and Morris have said, we have an existing footprint. That's one reason we think we have an advantage. Our current Indium Phosphide crystal growth site has room for more furnaces. As Tim explained, we're repurposing our Gallium Arsenide crystal growth that was in Beijing for even more. This year it's compared to the future years, it's probably gonna be $35 million in CapEx, maybe $30, maybe $40, somewhere in that range. To be honest, we'll spend as much as we can as fast as we can because we're uniquely positioned to be able to add capacity quickly. Next year, let's see.

Speaker #4: That's one reason we think we have an advantage. Our current Indian phosphide crystal growth site has room for more furnaces. And as Tim explained, we're repurposing our gallium arsenide crystal growth that was in Beijing for even more.

Speaker #4: So this year, it's compared to the future years, it's probably going to be 35 million in CAPEX, maybe 30, maybe 40, somewhere in that range.

Speaker #4: And to be honest, we'll spend as much as we can, as fast as we can, because we're uniquely positioned to be able to add capacity quickly.

Speaker #4: So, next year, let's see. I think as we—it's depending on which things we're talking about. Tim, you want to—you've got it split up in your paperwork there, but.

Gary Fischer: I think as it depends on which things we're talking about. Tim, you've got it split up in your, in your paperwork there.

Speaker #2: Yeah. I think as we go into next year and we look at building out this facility next door to us, obviously buying a new facility, putting doubling our capacity again there, and also building some capacity through our supply chains as well.

Tim Bettles: I think as we go into next year and we look at building out this facility next door to us, obviously buying a new facility, doubling our capacity again there, and also building some capacity through our supply chains as well, I think we're looking somewhere in the region of about $100 million or so. Beyond that, if we were to build a greenfield site somewhere else, I think we're looking at somewhere in the region of $220 to 250 million, depending on obviously what capacity we put in that greenfield site. Again, I'm thinking if we're putting a meaningful capacity there, you're looking at $200 plus million.

Speaker #2: I think we're looking somewhere in the region of about $100 million or so. And then beyond that, if we were to build a greenfield site somewhere else, I think we're looking at somewhere in the region of $220 to $250 million.

Speaker #2: Depending on, obviously, what capacity we put in that greenfield site. But again, I'm thinking if we're putting a meaningful capacity there, you're looking at 200-plus million dollars.

Speaker #5: Okay. Fair enough. Thanks for that detail here. I want to ask on Indian phosphide business here by geography. It made a couple of interesting comments here.

Richard Shannon: Okay. Fair enough. Thanks for that detail here. wanna ask on your Indium Phosphide business here by geography. You made a couple interesting comments here. last call, you said China was gonna grow about 60% this Q1, and then you said it actually was up 100%, if I caught you correctly. It's gonna double again here in Q2. What kind of percentage of your Indium Phosphide business in Q2 is China gonna be then?

Speaker #5: Last call, you said China was going to grow about 60% this first quarter, and then you said it actually was up 100%. And, if I caught you correctly, it's going to double again here in the second quarter.

Speaker #5: What kind of percentage of Indian phosphide business in the second quarter is China going to be, then?

Speaker #2: That's a great question. So I think we're seeing a lot of growth in China, and it's not just because we're seeing data center growth in China.

Tim Bettles: That's a great question. I think we're seeing a lot of growth in China, and it's not just because we're seeing data center growth in China, but we're seeing China enter the global supply chain market for optical transceivers and potentially co-packaged optics as we go forward. Again, you know, remember this is, this is fully globalized, and a lot of those transceiver companies that manufacture their transceivers within China are driving to a Chinese supply chain of laser diodes and photodetectors. In Q2, we estimate that the Chinese demand is probably about 30% of the overall Indium Phosphide global market demand that we're seeing. And we're seeing that increasing through certainly through Q3 and Q4 as well.

Speaker #2: But we're seeing China enter the global supply chain market for optical transceivers and potentially co-packaged optics as we go forward. So again, remember, this is fully globalized and a lot of those transceiver companies that manufacture their transceivers within China are driving to a Chinese supply chain of laser diodes and photodetectors.

Speaker #2: So in Q2, we estimate that the Chinese demand is probably about 30% of the overall Indian phosphide global market demand that we're seeing. And we're seeing that increasing through certainly through Q3 and Q4 as well.

Speaker #2: So as we get into Q4, it could even be as high as something pushing up to 40% share of the Indian total Indian phosphide market.

Tim Bettles: You know, as we get into Q4, it could even be as high as something pushing up to 40%, share of the total Indium Phosphide market.

Speaker #5: Okay. That is helpful, Tim. And I'll ask one last question, jump out of line here, and that's on the topic of gross margins. Gary, you've talked about in the past here with hoping to get to 35% with kind of an upside goal of looking at 40%.

Richard Shannon: Okay. That is helpful, Tim. I'll ask one last question, jump on the line here, and that's on the topic of gross margins. Gary, you've talked about, in the past here with, you know, hoping to get to 35% with kind of an upside goal of looking at 40%. When you're talking about the pretty strong mix shift towards Indium Phosphide here and even about price increases here, I would imagine you'd maybe help us think about whether that could go higher at some point in time. I'm not asking for any time soon, are you looking for a, for a kind of a ceiling of gross margins that get us above that 40% level? Thank you.

Speaker #5: But when you're talking about the pretty strong makeshift towards Indian phosphide here and even about price increases here, I would imagine you'd maybe help us think about whether that could go higher at some point in time.

Speaker #5: I'm not asking for any time soon, but are you looking for kind of a ceiling of gross margins that get us above that 40% level?

Speaker #5: Thank you.

Speaker #4: Well, internally, as a management team, we're definitely going to be targeting something that begins at the 4. But it's far out. We don't know yet.

Gary Fischer: Well, internally, as a management team, we're definitely gonna be targeting something that begins with a four, but it's far out and we don't know yet. I'd still stick with my sense that, you know, somewhere in the 35% range is very, very reasonable, that's for, you know, for the outside world. It's a safe, you know, landing point. That doesn't mean that we're satisfied with it, and we think we can, you know, do better. let's we need to get it farther down the road and prove that first, so.

Speaker #4: And so I'd still stick with my sense that somewhere in the 35% range is very, very reasonable. But that's for the outside world. It's a safe arrival landing point.

Speaker #4: But that doesn't mean that we're satisfied with it, and we think we can do better. But we need to get it farther down the road and prove that first, so.

Speaker #5: Okay. That's all I want to hear. That's all from me, Gary. Thank you.

Richard Shannon: Okay. That's all I want to hear. That's all for me, Gary. Thank you.

Speaker #4: You're welcome, Richard. Good to hear from you.

Gary Fischer: You're welcome, Richard. Good to hear from you.

Speaker #1: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Green, investor relations at AXT, for closing remarks.

Tracy: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Green, investor relations at AXT, for closing remarks.

Operator: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Green, investor relations at AXT, for closing remarks.

Speaker #4: Thank you, Tracy. And thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the B. Reilly Securities 2026 Annual Investor Conference and the Craig Hallum Institutional Conference in May, as well as the Northland Virtual Conference in June.

Leslie Green: Thank you, Tracy, thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the B. Riley Securities 2026 annual investor conference and the Craig-Hallum Institutional Conference in May, as well as the Northland Virtual Conference in June. We hope to see many of you there, and as always, feel free to contact us if you'd like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you all in the near future. Thanks.

Speaker #4: We hope to see many of you there. And as always, feel free to contact us if you'd like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you all in the near future.

Speaker #4: Thanks.

Tracy: This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Operator: This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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