Q1 2026 ArcelorMittal SA Earnings Call

April 30, 2026

Daniel Fairclough: Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call to discuss ArcelorMittal's performance and progress in Q1 2026. Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items as usual. We will not be going through the presentation that was published on our website this morning. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 20 of that presentation. Following opening remarks from Genuino Christino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please do press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue. With that, I will hand the call over to Genuino Christino.

Speaker #1: Leading today's call will be our Group CFO, Mr. Genuino Christino. Before we begin, I would like to mention a few housekeeping items, as usual.

Speaker #1: We will not be going through the presentation that was published on our website this morning. However, I do want to draw your attention to the disclaimers on slide 20 of that presentation.

Speaker #1: Following opening remarks from Genuino, we will move directly to the Q&A session. So if you would like to ask a question, then please do press star 11 on your keypad to join the queue.

Speaker #1: And with that, I will hand the call over to Genuino.

Speaker #2: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome, everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief. In much of what I say will echo the messages from recent quarters.

Genuino Christino: Thanks, Daniel. Welcome everyone, and thanks for joining today's call. As usual, I will keep my remarks brief, and much of what I say will echo the messages from recent quarters. That reflects the consistency of our performance, the clarity of our focus, and the discipline with which we continue to execute our strategy. What we are delivering at the bottom of the cycle positions us very well for the near future, particularly as more favorable policy conditions translate into a stronger operating environment with improving margins and returns. Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, this supports the free cash flow outlook and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders. First, I want to address safety. Our multi-year safety transformation program is now delivering more consistent and improved outcomes across our organization.

Speaker #2: That reflects the consistence of our performance, the clarity of our focus, and the discipline with which we continue to execute our strategy. What we are delivering at the bottom of the cycle positions us very well for the near future, particularly as more favorable policy conditions translate into a stronger operating environment, with improving margins and returns.

Speaker #2: Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, the supports the free cash flow outlook and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders. But first, I want to address safety.

Speaker #2: Our multi-year safety transformation program is now delivering more consistent and improved outcomes across our organization. Leadership expectations are clearly defined, risk management practices are being applied more uniformly, and our focus on process safety has expanded across installations.

Genuino Christino: Leadership expectations are clearly defined, risk management practices are being applied more uniformly, and our focus on process safety has expanded across installations. Advanced analytics, including AI, are strengthening these efforts. For example, enabling early identification of workers entering hazard areas and triggering path alerts and interventions that human monitoring alone. Most importantly, this sustained focus on safety is translating to tangible improvements in performance across the group. We provide a more detailed account of this progress in the sustainability report published last week, which I encourage you to review for a fuller picture of how we are advancing our safety objectives. I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results consistently demonstrate clear structural improvements.

Speaker #2: Advanced analytics, including AI, are strengthening these efforts. For example, enabling early identification of workers entering hazardous areas and triggering past alerts and interventions that human monitoring alone.

Speaker #2: Most importantly, the sustained focus on safety is translating to tangible improvements in performance across the group. We provide a more detailed account of this progress in the Sustainability Report published last week, which I encourage you to review for a fuller picture of how we are advancing our safety objectives.

Speaker #2: Now I want to focus this quarter on three key points. First and foremost, our results consistently demonstrate clear structural improvements. In the first quarter, we delivered EBITDA of $131 per ton, up $15 per ton year on year, and around 50% higher than our historical average margins.

Genuino Christino: In Q1, we delivered EBITDA of $131 per ton, up $15 per ton year-on-year and around 50% higher than our historical average margins. This clearly demonstrates the strengthening of our underlying earnings power over recent years. Importantly, this performance does not yet reflect the significantly stronger price environment seen in recent months, which we expect to be more fully evident in our Q2 results. Underlying free cash flow performance was robust. Excluding the seasonal working capital investment and in strategic growth CapEx, underlying free cash flow was running at an annualized rate of over $2 billion. Again, considering where we are in the cycle, this represents a strong outcome. Consistent and disciplined execution of our strategy is driving improved performance and providing the capacity to continually invest with discipline and focus, and materially enhance the future earnings potential of ArcelorMittal.

Speaker #2: This clearly demonstrates the strengthening of our underlying earnings power over recent years. Importantly, this performance does not yet reflect the significantly stronger pricing environment seen in recent months.

Speaker #2: Which we expect to be more fully evident in our second quarter results. Underlying free cash flow performance was robust. Excluding the seasonal working capital investment and the strategic growth CapEx, underlying free cash flow was running at an annualized rate of over $2 billion.

Speaker #2: Again, considering where we are in the cycle, this represents a strong outcome. Consistent and disciplined execution of our strategy is driving improved performance and providing the capacity to continually invest with discipline and focus, and materially enhance the future earnings potential of ArcelorMittal.

Speaker #2: This brings me to my second point, our compelling growth opportunities, which clearly set us apart from our peers. We are allocating capital to the highest return opportunities.

Genuino Christino: This brings me to my second point, our compelling growth opportunities, which clearly set us apart from our peers. We are allocating capital to the highest return opportunities. This includes projects that are actively enabling the energy transition, expanding our iron ore mining capacity, and adding new value-added capabilities. We recently approved an EAF investment in Dunkirk. The decision was enabled by the more supportive policy backdrop, the cost visibility from a competitive long-term energy contract, and the support of the French government. Our EAF projects are expected to deliver incrementally higher EBITDA to provide an acceptable return on the capital deployed. We have reflected Dunkirk together with the previously announced EAF projects in Sestao and Gijon into the expected EBITDA impact from strategic projects. This now stands at an incremental $1.8 billion from 2026 onwards.

Speaker #2: This includes projects that are actively enabling the energy transition, expanding our iron ore mining capacity, and adding new value-added capabilities. We recently approved an EAF investment in Dunkirk.

Speaker #2: This decision was enabled by the more supportive policy backdrop, the cost visibility from a competitive long-term energy contract, and the support of the French government.

Speaker #2: Our EAF projects are expected to deliver incrementally high EBITDA to provide an acceptable return on the capital deployed. So we have reflected Dunkirk together with the previously announced EAF projects in Sistao and Guihong into the expected EBITDA impact from a strategic project.

Speaker #2: This now stands at an incremental 1.8 billion from 2026 onwards. My final point is on the positive outlook. Which is underpinned by trade policy.

Genuino Christino: My final point is on the positive outlook, which is underpinned by trade policy. Given the change to trade policy, the steel sector today offers much more defensive characteristics, particularly in Europe, than it did in the past. More effective trade protections are leading to increasingly regionalized market structures, enabling domestic producers to recapture market share from unfairly subsidized imports. The biggest shift occurring in Europe. We are very pleased with the agreement achieved in the new tariff rate quota tool in Europe. As a result, we can expect this to be in effect from 1 July 2026. Together with CBAM, this underpins our positive outlook for our European business. We are seeing stronger customer engagement, higher order inquiries, and customers shifting more towards domestic supply. This is apparent in the material improvement in steel prices and spreads since the start of the year.

Speaker #2: Given the change to trade policy, the steel sector today offers much more defensive characteristics, particularly in Europe, than it did in the past. More effective trade protections are leading to increasingly regionalized market structures enabling domestic producers to recapture market share from unfairly subsidized imports.

Speaker #2: The biggest shift occurring in Europe. We are very pleased with the agreement achieved in the new tariff rate quota tool in Europe. As a result, we can expect this to be in effect from 1st of July 2026.

Speaker #2: Together with CBAM, this underpins our positive outlook for our European business. We are seeing stronger customer engagement, higher order inquiries, and customers shifting more towards domestic supply.

Speaker #2: This is apparent in the material improvement in steel prices and spreads since the start of the year. As a result, despite the volatility of energy markets caused by the conflict in Iran, we continue to expect our production and shipments to improve across all regions in 2026.

Genuino Christino: As a result, despite the volatility of energy markets caused by the conflict in Iran, we continue to expect our production and shipments to improve across all regions in 2026, and we should see a clear improvement in our EBITDA in all steel segments next quarter. As I conclude, the message is simple: We are consistently delivering structurally improved results while executing our strategy with discipline. Our high return growth opportunities differentiate us from our peers, as does our track record of capital returns through the consistent application of our policy. That framework has already delivered a 38% reduction in our share count and a doubling of the dividend over the past 5 years. At the same time, we have advanced the business strategically, enhancing resilience and structurally improving returns on capital, all achieved while maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet.

Speaker #2: And we should see a clear improvement in our EBITDA in all steel segments next quarter. As I conclude the message, it's simple. We are consistently delivering structural improved results while executing our strategy with discipline.

Speaker #2: Our high return growth opportunities differentiate us from our peers as does our track record of capital returns. Through the consistent application of our policy.

Speaker #2: That framework has already delivered a 38% reduction in our share count and a doubling of the dividend over the past five years. At the same time, we have advanced the business strategically.

Speaker #2: Enhancing resilience and structurally improving returns on capital all achieved while maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet. With that, Daniel, I believe we can begin the Q&A.

Genuino Christino: With that, Daniel, I believe we can begin the Q&A.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thank you, Genuino Christino. We have quite a long list of questions already. We will move to the first, which we'll take from Alain. Please go ahead, Alain.

Speaker #1: Great. Thank you, Genuino. So we have quite a long question, a list of questions, already so we will move to the first, which will take from Alan.

Speaker #1: Please go ahead, Alan.

Speaker #3: Yes, thank you for taking my question, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. Genuino, the usual question is probably a good place to start if you can walk us through the usual profit bridges Q1 versus Q2 and where do you see the greatest deltas in prices and volumes.

[Analyst]: Yes, sir. Thank you for taking my question, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. Genuino Christino, the usual question is probably a good place to start, if you can walk us through the usual profit bridges, Q1 versus Q2, and where do you see the greatest deltas in prices and volumes? And how are your divisional costs evolving sequentially, including the CO2 cost implications in Europe? That's the first question. Thanks.

Alain Gabriel: Yes, sir. Thank you for taking my question, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. A couple of questions from my side. Genuino Christino, the usual question is probably a good place to start, if you can walk us through the usual profit bridges, Q1 versus Q2, and where do you see the greatest deltas in prices and volumes? And how are your divisional costs evolving sequentially, including the CO2 cost implications in Europe? That's the first question. Thanks.

Speaker #3: And how are your divisional costs evolving sequentially, including the CO2 cost implications in Europe? That's the first question. Thanks.

Speaker #1: So I will ask Daniel to start with the bridge. Daniel, do you want to kick it off?

Genuino Christino: I will ask Daniel to start with the bridge. Daniel, do you wanna kick it off?

Speaker #4: Yeah, sure. Thanks, Genuino. And it's a very simple bridge which you've already alluded to, I think, in your opening remarks. You referenced that we expect all of the steel segments to improve in the second quarter relative to the first quarter.

Daniel Fairclough: Yeah, sure. Thanks, Janmino. It's a very simple bridge, which you've already alluded to, I think, in your opening remarks. You referenced that we expect all of the steel segments to improve in Q2 relative to Q1. The drivers behind that improvement are common across the segment. It's a theme of improved volumes and improved prices. That's applicable to Europe, it's applicable to North America, and it's applicable to Brazil.

Speaker #4: And the drivers behind that improvement are common across the segments. So it's a theme of improved volumes, an improved prices, so that's applicable to Europe.

Speaker #4: It's applicable to North America, and it's applicable to Brazil.

Speaker #1: Yeah, perhaps then I will add, Daniel. I mean, the point on carbon costs is, Alan, I mean, as you know, I mean, we have the new benchmarks, right?

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Perhaps then I will add, Daniel. I mean, the point on carbon costs is Alain, as you know, we have the new benchmarks, right? From beginning of the year, that's ETS 4.2. I'm sure you know what it means in terms of reduction of free allowances, right? I think what is important here, and we have in our results, is that now with CBAM, which so far, based on what we can see, is proving to be very effective, right? We see that prices since introduction of CBAM has moved up by 50, and just look at the index, almost EUR 100, right? You don't see that yet in our results. You see, of course, the costs in Europe already, right?

Speaker #1: From the beginning of the year, that's ETS 4.2, so I'm sure you know what it means in terms of reduction of free allowances, right?

Speaker #1: But I think what is important here and we have in our results is that now with CBAM, which so far based on what we can see is proving to be very effective, right?

Speaker #1: I mean, we see that prices since introduction of CBAM has moved up by this year and just look at the index almost 100 euros, right?

Speaker #1: And you don't see that yet in our results. You see, of course, the costs in Europe already, right? As we accrue the higher CO2 costs, but you don't see yet the benefits of CBAM.

Genuino Christino: As we accrue the higher CO2 costs, but you don't see yet the benefits of CBAM. That's how I would say. That should come, of course, from Q2 onwards.

Speaker #1: That's what I would say. So that should come, of course, from quarter two onwards.

Speaker #3: Thank you. Thank you. And my second question is, if you're able to give us some qualitative color on the European customer behavior, how receptive are they to the new pricing frameworks, both CBAM and with the upcoming safeguard?

[Analyst]: Thank you. Thank you. My second question is, if you're able to give us some qualitative color on the European customer behavior, how receptive are they to the new pricing frameworks, both CBAM and to the upcoming safeguard? Are you worried about inventory levels in Europe, or are you seeing any client retrenchment because of the Middle Eastern conflict? Any color you can give us on your customer profile in Europe today would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Alain Gabriel: Thank you. Thank you. My second question is, if you're able to give us some qualitative color on the European customer behavior, how receptive are they to the new pricing frameworks, both CBAM and to the upcoming safeguard? Are you worried about inventory levels in Europe, or are you seeing any client retrenchment because of the Middle Eastern conflict? Any color you can give us on your customer profile in Europe today would be much appreciated. Thank you.

Speaker #3: And are you worried about inventory levels in Europe or are you seeing any client retrenchment because of the Middle Eastern conflict? So any color you can give us on your customer profile in Europe today would be much appreciated.

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Yeah, well, I made some comments in my prepared open remarks, right? We are seeing a more activity in the order book is good. So when I compare where we were last year, I would say the order book is stronger.

Genuino Christino: Well, I made some comments with my prepared open remarks, right? We are seeing more activity. The order book is good. When I compare where we were last year, I would say the order book is stronger. We see customers trying to develop the relationships. That is all supportive, Alain. That's good. That's why, I mean, we feel, of course, confident to confirm the guidance that we discussed at the time of Q4 results, higher shipments in Europe year on year, right? I would expect our H2 actually to be stronger than the H1, which is, as you know, unusual.

Speaker #1: We see customers trying to develop the relationships, so that is all supportive alone. That's good. So, and that's why, I mean, we feel, of course, confident to confirm the guidance that we discussed at the time of Q4 results.

Speaker #1: Higher shipments in Europe year on year, right? And I would expect our second half actually to be stronger than the first half, which is, as you know, unusual typically our second half is weaker, but because of everything that we are discussing here, I would expect shipments in the second half to be actually stronger.

Genuino Christino: Typically, our H2 is weaker. Because of everything that we are discussing here, I would expect shipments in the H2 to be actually stronger. Yeah. I think it's all moving in the right direction.

Speaker #1: Yeah, so I think it's all moving in the right direction.

Speaker #3: Thank you very much. Thank you.

Andrew Jones: Thank you very much. Thank you.

Alain Gabriel: Thank you very much. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Great. So we'll move now to take a question from Bastien at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastien. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. We'll move now to take a question from Bastian at Deutsche Bank. Hi, Bastian. Please go ahead.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Yeah, good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions. My first one is also a follow-up actually on maybe your guidance, particularly on the steel production side in Europe specifically, which was, I guess, very low in terms of production in Q1. You talked about the maintenance, but shipments were down quite a lot as well, which, I guess 1 could say is a little bit surprising given the impact from CBAM we've seen already, as well as maybe some withdrawal from imports. I'm wondering how far we will see a real catch-up in Q2 driving very strong year-on-year growth, whether you would be able to even give a bit more detail on that. That would be great. That's my first question.

Speaker #5: Yeah, good afternoon and thanks for taking my questions. My first one is also a follow-up actually on maybe your guidance, particularly on the steel production side and Europe specifically, which was, I guess, very low in terms of production in Q1 and you talked about the maintenance, but shipments were down quite a lot as well.

Bastian Synagowitz: Yeah, good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions. My first one is also a follow-up actually on maybe your guidance, particularly on the steel production side in Europe specifically, which was, I guess, very low in terms of production in Q1. You talked about the maintenance, but shipments were down quite a lot as well, which, I guess 1 could say is a little bit surprising given the impact from CBAM we've seen already, as well as maybe some withdrawal from imports. I'm wondering how far we will see a real catch-up in Q2 driving very strong year-on-year growth, whether you would be able to even give a bit more detail on that. That would be great. That's my first question.

Speaker #5: Which, I guess, one could say is a little bit surprising given the impact from CBAM we've seen already, as well as maybe some withdrawal from imports.

Speaker #5: So I'm wondering how far we will see a real catch-up in the second quarter driving very strong year-on-year growth. And whether you would be able to even give a bit more detail on that, that would be great.

Speaker #5: That's my first question.

Speaker #1: Yeah, sure, Bastien. Yeah, Bastien, you're right. So we are, of course, and as we discussed in Q4, we had maintenance in some of our facilities, right?

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Sure, Bastian. Yeah, Bastian, you're right. We are of course, as we discussed in Q4, we had maintenance in some of our facilities, right? We have just one or two days ago, we started one of our furnaces in Poland, and we continue to work on our furnace in Poland, in Spain. We're gonna be in a position to bring back the capacity as and when we see the demand, right? As a result, the furnace in Poland is already we are ramping up that as we speak. I mean, inventories, and I have not really touched on it, when I have, so I should do it now.

Speaker #1: And we have just one or two days ago restarted one of our furnaces in Poland. And we continue to work on our furnace in Force, in Spain.

Speaker #1: So we're going to be in a position to bring back the capacity as and when we see the demand, right? So as a result, the furnace in Poland is already we are ramping up that as we speak.

Speaker #1: I mean, inventories and I have not really touched on it when I asked, so I should do it now. I mean, we know that imports were quite elevated in Q4, right?

Genuino Christino: I mean, we know that imports were quite elevated in Q4, right? We saw imports coming down in Q1, right? Evidence suggests that imports, at least at the beginning of Q2, are still elevated. You still have players still trying of course to get materials here before the new TRQ starts from 1 July. Having said that, we don't believe that inventories are too high. I mean, of course, they are higher than the than I would say normal levels, but not so high. Our expectation is that as the new TRQ comes into place, this inventory should normalize relatively quickly.

Speaker #1: We saw imports coming down in quarter one, right? But evidence suggests that imports at least at the beginning of quarter two are still elevated.

Speaker #1: So you still have players still trying, of course, to get materials here before the new TIQ starts from 1st of July. Having said that, we don't believe that inventories are too high.

Speaker #1: I mean, of course, they are higher than I would say normal levels, but not so high. So our expectation is that as the new TIQ comes into place, this inventory should normalize relatively quickly.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Mm-hmm. Okay. In terms of what this means for, I guess, the overall cycle, I guess there are some players in the market which do expect that imports in Q2 will basically go up before they fade in H2. Is this the view you do share as well? I guess what is your view maybe particularly also on the pricing side? Prices have been very strong already, but is your view that maybe comes Q3, we will see further price dynamic most likely kicking in in Europe?

Bastian Synagowitz: Mm-hmm. Okay. In terms of what this means for, I guess, the overall cycle, I guess there are some players in the market which do expect that imports in Q2 will basically go up before they fade in H2. Is this the view you do share as well? I guess what is your view maybe particularly also on the pricing side? Prices have been very strong already, but is your view that maybe comes Q3, we will see further price dynamic most likely kicking in in Europe?

Speaker #5: Okay. And in terms of what this means for, I guess, the overall cycle, I guess there are some players in the market which do expect that imports in the second quarter will basically go up before they fade in the second half.

Speaker #5: Is this the view you do share as well? And I guess what is your view, maybe particularly also on the pricing side, prices have been very strong already, but is your view that basically comes third quarter, we will see further price dynamic most likely kicking in in Europe?

Speaker #5: Or will it take longer to maybe digest and work through, I guess, inventory overhang? Whatever disruptions we could see.

Genuino Christino: Well.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Will it take longer to maybe digest and work through, I guess, inventory overhang, whatever disruptions, we could see?

Bastian Synagowitz: Will it take longer to maybe digest and work through, I guess, inventory overhang, whatever disruptions, we could see?

Genuino Christino: Well, Bastian, I mean, what we are seeing, I mean, we saw first prices actually moving up during the quarter, right? Actually accelerating from beginning of the Iran war. Also in response, right, to cost pressures. I think it's fair to say that imports in Q2 should still be high, right, as we discussed, because just it's normal, right? Players trying to get the materials here before the new TRQ. Again, it's not ideal, of course. We're gonna need to work through that, but we don't expect that to really be or to take us, to take the market long to absorb that.

Speaker #1: Well, Bastien, I mean, what we are seeing, I mean, we saw, of course, prices actually moving up during the quarter, right? Actually accelerating from beginning of the beginning of the Iran war.

Speaker #1: Also in response, right, to cost pressures. So I think it's fair to say that imports in Q2 should, in Q2, should still be high, right?

Speaker #1: As we discussed, because just it's normal, right? So players trying to get the materials here before the new TIQ. But again, it's not ideal, of course.

Speaker #1: We're going to need to work through that. But we don't expect that to really be or to take us to take the market long to absorb that.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Mm-hmm.

Bastian Synagowitz: Mm-hmm.

Genuino Christino: Of course, on prices, Bastian, as you know, we cannot comment, right? I can only refer you to what we are seeing. If you look at the index, it's right. I mean, not only prices increasing during the year, but it spreads, right? When you look at the spreads also evolving positively and also as a result of introduction of CBAM at the beginning of the year. I think we need to look at European now market. As we have always been saying, right? It is the combination of the two, CBAM and TRQ, that is very, very powerful here, right? We have one piece, and we're gonna have the second piece now from 1 July.

Speaker #1: And of course, on prices, Bastien, as you know, we cannot comment, right? We can I can only refer you to what we are seeing if you look at the index, right?

Speaker #1: I mean, we have a nice not only prices increasing during the year, but it spreads, right? So when you look at the spreads also evolving positively, and also as a result of introduction of CBAM at the beginning of the year, I think we need to look at the European now market as we have always been saying, right?

Speaker #1: It is the combination of the two CBAM and TIQ that is very, very powerful here, right? And we have one piece and we're going to have the second piece now from 1st of July.

Speaker #5: Okay, great. Maybe a very quick one on India, which you didn't mention in your earlier second quarter indication. I guess we've seen decent performance actually in Q1; prices also picked up, but then there is obviously the energy situation as well.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Okay. Great. Maybe a very quick one on India, which you didn't mention in your early Q2 indication. I guess we have seen decent performance actually in Q1. Prices also picked up, but then there is obviously the energy situation as well. I guess what is the trajectory for India into Q2?

Bastian Synagowitz: Okay. Great. Maybe a very quick one on India, which you didn't mention in your early Q2 indication. I guess we have seen decent performance actually in Q1. Prices also picked up, but then there is obviously the energy situation as well. I guess what is the trajectory for India into Q2?

Speaker #5: So, I guess, what is the trajectory for India into the second quarter?

Speaker #1: Yeah, it's also good you're right. So because of the DRI, we are more exposed to gas in India. But as you know, I mean, we have we are fully hedged.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. It's also good APM. Because of the APM, we are more exposed to gas in India. As you know, I mean, we have, we are fully hedged Russian. We don't expect cost pressure coming from gas in India. We are fully hedged. The price environment has also improved, which already benefited Q1, right? We would expect also a good second quarter for our Indian operations.

Speaker #1: Bastien, so we don't expect cost pressure coming from gas in India. So we are fully hedged. And the price environment has also improved. Which already benefited Q1, right?

Speaker #1: And we would expect also a good second quarter for Indian operations.

[Analyst] (Deutsche Bank): Understood. Thanks so much, Genuino Christino.

Bastian Synagowitz: Understood. Thanks so much, Genuino Christino.

Speaker #5: Understood. Thanks so much, Genuino.

Speaker #1: Thanks, Bastien. So we'll move to take the next question from Reinhardt at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhardt. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Bastian. We'll move to take the next question from Reinhard at Bank of America. Hi, Reinhard. Please go ahead.

[Analyst] (Bank of America): Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino. Thanks for taking my question. First one, maybe just, you know, we've spoken a lot about inventories, and it seems like it's creating a bit of an uncertain picture around, you know, when this domestic demand will kind of kick in. What are you seeing across the European steel industry in terms of capacity mobilization? Outside of the actions that you've taken, do you think that the European industry is ready for the challenge of producing that additional volume?

Reinhardt van der Walt: Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino. Thanks for taking my question. First one, maybe just, you know, we've spoken a lot about inventories, and it seems like it's creating a bit of an uncertain picture around, you know, when this domestic demand will kind of kick in. What are you seeing across the European steel industry in terms of capacity mobilization? Outside of the actions that you've taken, do you think that the European industry is ready for the challenge of producing that additional volume?

Speaker #6: Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino. Thanks for taking my question. First one, maybe just, you know, we've spoken a lot about inventories and it seems like it's creating a bit of an uncertain picture around, you know, when this domestic demand will kind of kick in.

Speaker #6: What are you seeing across the European steel industry in terms of capacity mobilization outside of the actions that you've taken? Do you think that the European industry is ready for the challenge of producing that additional volume?

Genuino Christino: Well, Reinhard, I'm not, I'm not gonna talk much about what the competition is doing, right? I think what we have been saying very consistently is that ArcelorMittal is in a good position, right? To take our market share of the reduced imports and we can do more, right? To the extent that others cannot, we're gonna be in a good position. As we talked about, we have a lot of flexibility here, so we have the finances that we can bring back. We have the possibility to bring back slabs, and we have more downstream capacity. We're gonna be in a good position here to make sure that the market is supplied, that we don't have any shortages as a result of these changes.

Speaker #1: Well, Reinhardt, I mean, I'm not going to talk much about what the competition is doing, right? I think what we have been saying very consistently is that ArcelorMittal is in a good position, right?

Speaker #1: To take our market share of the reduced imports and we can do more, right? So to the extent that others cannot, so then we're going to be in a good position as we talked about.

Speaker #1: We have a lot of flexibility here. So we have the finances that we can bring back. We have the possibility to bring back slabs.

Speaker #1: We have more downstream capacity. So we're going to be in a good position here to make sure that the market is supplied that we don't have any shortages in the as a result of these changes.

[Analyst] (Bank of America): Understood. That's very clear. Thank you. Just maybe a second question on the Dunkirk EAF investment. Are you looking to do any kind of downstream additions there or to, like, get any changes in your product mix maybe out of that capacity as you go through the capital allocation?

Reinhardt van der Walt: Understood. That's very clear. Thank you. Just maybe a second question on the Dunkirk EAF investment. Are you looking to do any kind of downstream additions there or to, like, get any changes in your product mix maybe out of that capacity as you go through the capital allocation?

Speaker #6: Understood. That's very clear. Thank you. Just maybe a second question on the Dunkirk EAF investment. Are you looking to do any kind of downstream additions there or to get any changes in your product mix, maybe out of that capacity as you go through the capital allocation?

Genuino Christino: Can you repeat the question, Reinhard? I'm not sure that I got it.

Speaker #1: So can you repeat the question, Reinhardt? I'm not sure that I got it.

Genuino Christino: Can you repeat the question, Reinhard? I'm not sure that I got it.

Speaker #6: Yeah, sure. So as you're converting over to EAF, are you looking to add any downstream investment as well? Any kind of finishing capacity as part of that project?

[Analyst] (Bank of America): Yeah, sure. As you're converting over to EAF, are you looking to add any?

Reinhardt van der Walt: Yeah, sure. As you're converting over to EAF, are you looking to add any?

Genuino Christino: Yeah

[Analyst] (Bank of America): downstream investment as well? Any kind of finishing capacity as part of that project?

Genuino Christino: Yeah

Reinhardt van der Walt: downstream investment as well? Any kind of finishing capacity as part of that project?

Speaker #1: No, not really. We're going to be able to, of course, and that's why the CapEx can be reduced to some extent because we're going to be able to still use some of the equipment there, right?

Genuino Christino: No, not really. We're gonna be able to, of course, and that's, that's why the CapEx can be reduced to some extent because we're gonna be able to still use some of the equipment there, right? Downstream will, of course, be intact. Basically, what we're changing is the upstream, right? Instead of the blast furnace and the converters, you're gonna have the EAF, the ladle furnaces, and then we're gonna just follow the normal process of that plant. We should be in a position to achieve the same mix, which in Dunkirk, as you know, it's quite high.

Speaker #1: And downstream will, of course, be intact. We're going to be able to so basically what we're changing is the upstream, right? So instead of the blast furnace, and the converters, you're going to have the EAF, the ladder furnace, and then we're going to just follow the normal process of that plan.

Speaker #1: So, we should be in a position to achieve the same mix, which in Dunkirk—as you know, it's quite high. We have a very high-quality order book there, which, of course, is very important for us to protect, and that's exactly the idea here: that we should be in a position to produce the same grades as we can today with the blast furnace.

Genuino Christino: We have a very quality high order book there, which we of course, it's very important for us to protect, and that's exactly the idea here, that we should be in a position to produce the same grades as we can today with the blast furnace.

Speaker #6: That's clear. Thanks, Luan. I'll hand it over.

[Analyst] (Bank of America): That's clear. Thanks a lot. I'll hand it over.

Reinhardt van der Walt: That's clear. Thanks a lot. I'll hand it over.

Speaker #1: Thanks, Reinhardt. So we'll move now to take a question from Boris at Kappa Shobro. Hi, Boris. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Reinhard. We'll move now to take a question from Boris at Kepler Cheuvreux. Hi, Boris. Please go ahead.

[Analyst] (Kepler Cheuvreux): Hi. Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino Christino. Thank you for taking my question. The first question is about the new capacity restart at Fos in France and at Dąbrowa in Poland, plus the EAF capacity in Spain. How much capacity are you bringing back with those new furnaces? The second question would be on North America. Are you still facing the same headwind about the tariffs, Section 232? Can you share with us the expectations you might have for the coming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement? Thank you.

Boris Bourdet: Hi. Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino Christino. Thank you for taking my question. The first question is about the new capacity restart at Fos in France and at Dąbrowa in Poland, plus the EAF capacity in Spain. How much capacity are you bringing back with those new furnaces? The second question would be on North America. Are you still facing the same headwind about the tariffs, Section 232? Can you share with us the expectations you might have for the coming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement? Thank you.

Speaker #7: Hi, Daniel. Hi, Genuino. Thank you for taking my question. The first question is about the new capacity restock at Fos in France and at Dabrowa in Poland, plus the EAF capacity in Spain.

Speaker #7: How much capacity are you bringing back with those new furnaces? And the second question would be on North America. Are you still facing the same headwinds about the tariffs, Section 232?

Speaker #7: And can you share with us the expectations you might have for the coming renegotiation of the USMCA agreement? Thank you.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. We have a couple of questions there, Boris. The first one, the capacity in Europe. All these furnaces, they are 2+ million tons. They are relatively large sized furnaces as I mentioned before. We started Dąbrowa already, and we are getting ready in Fos and also in Spain, right? We'll of course announce when we are ready to bring these furnaces back up, right? We're just doing all the work so that we are in a position to restart them when we need them, right? In North America, look, I mean, the USMCA, I mean, it's early days.

Speaker #1: Yeah. So we have a couple of questions. Yeah, Boris. So the first one, the capacity in Europe. So all these furnaces, they are two-plus million tons.

Speaker #1: So they are relatively large-sized furnaces. As I mentioned before, so we started the global already and we are getting ready in Falls and also in Spain, right?

Speaker #1: And we will, of course, announce when we are ready to bring these furnaces back up, right? But we're just doing all the work so that we are in a position to restart them when we need them, right?

Speaker #1: In North America, look, I mean, the USMCA, I mean, it's early days. I think we have to wait to see really how it starts, right?

Genuino Christino: I think we have to wait to see really, how it, how it starts, right? It's probably wouldn't be right for me to speculate. The only thing I can say is that we hope that one that we feel that we can operate as a single as a single block, right? I think for us, for our business, what would be ideal is that we have Mexico, we have Canada putting the same barriers against, you know, the imports that we have similar protection as we have in the United States, right? The material then can flow. That's what I would say.

Speaker #1: It's probably wouldn't be right for me to speculate. The only thing I can say is that we hope that the outcome will be one that we feel that we can operate as a single block, right?

Speaker #1: That I think the for us, for our business, what would be ideal is that we have Mexico, we have Canada, put in the same barriers against the imports, that we have similar protection as we have in the United States, right?

Speaker #1: And then the material then can flow. So that's what I would say. I think we have to wait there. And Boris.

Genuino Christino: I think we have to wait, Boris.

Speaker #7: Okay, thank you. And just the current headwind that we feel—something like $150 million per quarter.

[Analyst] (Kepler Cheuvreux): Okay. Thank you. Just the current headwind that we've seen something like $150 million dollar per quarter due to tariffs.

Boris Bourdet: Okay. Thank you. Just the current headwind that we've seen something like $150 million dollar per quarter due to tariffs.

Speaker #1: Yeah, there is no change there. The headwinds remain basically the same, Boris.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. There is no change there. The headwinds remain basically the same, Boris.

Speaker #7: Okay. Thank you.

[Analyst] (Kepler Cheuvreux): Okay. Thank you.

Boris Bourdet: Okay. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Great. Thanks, Boris. So we'll move now to take a question from Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Boris. We'll move now to take a question from Tristan at BNP Paribas. Hi, Tristan. Please go ahead.

[Analyst] (BNP Paribas): Yes, hi. I have 2 question, and thank you for taking them. The first one is for a question on North America and Section 232. We've seen recently that there could be some relief for Mexican, Canadian producer if they build new capacity in the US to supply the auto market. Do you believe this could be retroactively applied to your first Calvert EAF? If not, is that a consideration for the potential second one?

Speaker #8: Yes, hi. I have two questions and thank you for taking them. The first one is for a question on North America and section 232.

Tristan Gresser: Yes, hi. I have 2 question, and thank you for taking them. The first one is for a question on North America and Section 232. We've seen recently that there could be some relief for Mexican, Canadian producer if they build new capacity in the US to supply the auto market. Do you believe this could be retroactively applied to your first Calvert EAF? If not, is that a consideration for the potential second one?

Speaker #8: We've seen recently that there could be some relief for Mexican, Canadian producer if they build new capacity in the US to supply the auto market.

Speaker #8: Do you believe this could be retroactively applied to your first culvert EAF, and if not, is that a consideration for the potential second one?

Genuino Christino: Yeah, Tristan. I just think it's important to be clear, right? Today we are not receiving any tariff relief, right? All imports into the US, including from Canada and Mexico, continue to pay Section 232, 50% tariffs. I think you know our position on tariffs, which is very consistent. For over 20 years, we have been arguing that the global steel industry has been suffering from overcapacity and continuously pushing for fair trade, whether it is in the US, Brazil, Europe, Canada, or other parts of the world.

Speaker #1: Yeah, yeah, Tristan. So, I just—I think it's important to be clear, right? So, today we are not receiving any tariff, really, right?

Speaker #1: And all the imports seem to be US, including from Canada and Mexico, continue to pay section 232, 50% tariffs. I think you know our position on tariffs, which is very consistent for over 20 years.

Speaker #1: We have been arguing that the global steel industry has been suffering from overcapacity. And continuously pushing for fair trade, whether it is in the US, Brazil, Europe, Canada, or the parts of the world.

Speaker #1: So we do fully support the section 232. But we also support being able to operate as I was saying before, as one regional market across North America.

Genuino Christino: We do fully support the Section 232, but we also support being able to operate, as I was saying before, as one regional market across North America, and that there are no tariffs on steel that is melted and put in Canada and Mexico. As you know, we have been seriously considering the second EAF in Calvert, as US is an attractive market to make steel. In terms of potential tariff relief, as you know, tax has been now published, designed to stimulate additional investments in the US, and we are analyzing it. It's a lot of details, has now been published and we're just going through that. The answer is not really actually a yes. We still need to study it.

Speaker #1: And that there are no tariffs on steel that is melted and put in Canada and Mexico. And as you know, we have been seriously considering the second EAF and culvert.

Speaker #1: As the US is an attractive market to make steel. And in terms of potential tariff relief, as you know, tax has been now published, designed to stimulate additional investments in the US.

Speaker #1: And we are analyzing it. So it's a lot of details. It has now been published and we're just going through that. And the answer is not really a clear yes.

Speaker #1: We still need to study it. And I just want also just to take the opportunity as a lot has been written on this topic.

[Analyst] (BNP Paribas): All right.

Tristan Gresser: All right.

Genuino Christino: I just want also, just take the opportunity as a lot has been written on this topic. I would actually like to also take the opportunity to confirm that we are contributing steel to the White House ballroom. Approximately 600 tons have been delivered to date. As you know, we have a track record of both supplying strong, high quality steels to US customers and donating steel to iconic buildings and projects around the world that showcase its strength and flexibility. Just to give an example, when the Freedom Tower was wanted the strongest steel in the world, they came to our facilities. We are pleased to add the White House to the list of iconic American buildings where our steel will stand strong for years to come, Tristan.

Speaker #1: I would actually like to also take the opportunity to confirm that we are contributing steel to the White House ballroom. So approximately 600 tonnes have been delivered to date.

Speaker #1: As you know, we have a track record of both supplying strong, high-quality steels to US customers. And donating steel to iconic buildings and projects around the world that showcase its strength and flexibility.

Speaker #1: Just to give an example, when the Freedom Tower was one of the strongest steel in the world, they came to our facilities. So we are pleased to add the White House to the list of iconic American buildings where our steel will stand strong for years to come, Tristan.

Genuino Christino: We just need to wait a bit more. We're gonna go through the details, and then we're gonna be in a position to update everyone.

Speaker #1: So, we just need to wait a bit more. We're going to go through the details, and then we're going to be in a position to update everyone.

Genuino Christino: We just need to wait a bit more. We're gonna go through the details, and then we're gonna be in a position to update everyone.

Speaker #8: Okay. Okay. No, that's clear, but that's a potential thing to consider. And my second question is on the green steel economics in Europe. I was a bit surprised to see that you were only targeting €200 million of EBITDA for your three EAF projects.

[Analyst] (BNP Paribas): Okay. Okay. No, that's clear, but that's a potential thing to consider. My second question is on the green steel economics in Europe. I was a bit surprised to see that you were only targeting EUR 200 million of EBITDA for your three EAF projects. Because if I understood correctly, Sestao in Spain is potentially adding another 1 million tons of new volumes. Gijon is replacing 1 million tons, and Dunkirk is replacing 2 million tons. That's close to 4 million tons of EAF steel, and it does not look like there are much productivity gains or green steel premiums baked into that.

Tristan Gresser: Okay. Okay. No, that's clear, but that's a potential thing to consider. My second question is on the green steel economics in Europe. I was a bit surprised to see that you were only targeting EUR 200 million of EBITDA for your three EAF projects. Because if I understood correctly, Sestao in Spain is potentially adding another 1 million tons of new volumes. Gijon is replacing 1 million tons, and Dunkirk is replacing 2 million tons. That's close to 4 million tons of EAF steel, and it does not look like there are much productivity gains or green steel premiums baked into that.

Speaker #8: Because if I understood correctly, Systeo in Spain is potentially adding another 1 million tonne of new volumes. Gironne is replacing 1 million tonne. And Dunkirk is replacing 2 million tonne.

Speaker #8: So that's close to 4 million tonne of EAF steel. And it does not look like there are much productivity gains or green steel premiums baked into that.

Speaker #8: So maybe if you could discuss a little bit the high-level assumptions you're making, and perhaps the delta is on the cost base, and if you expect a big increase there for moving from BF to EF.

[Analyst] (BNP Paribas): Maybe if you could discuss a little bit the high level assumptions you're making and perhaps the delta is on the cost base and if you expect a big increase there from moving from BF to EF. Thank you.

Tristan Gresser: Maybe if you could discuss a little bit the high level assumptions you're making and perhaps the delta is on the cost base and if you expect a big increase there from moving from BF to EF. Thank you.

Speaker #8: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Yeah. Well, Tristan, there are a couple of points there, right? I think it's just important to appreciate that we are talking about we are just giving you the incremental EBITDA, right?

Genuino Christino: Well, Tristan, there are a couple of points there, right? I think it is important to appreciate that we are talking about we are just giving you the incremental EBITDA, right? It's incremental to what we are earning today. As you know, the idea here is that we're gonna be, except for Sestao, where we are really increasing capacities, in Dunkirk, we are, we're gonna be replacing one furnace. We are not really looking to increase capacity. What you have is really what is incremental. I think it's also important to take into account the amount of the investments, right? That's why we were so focused as a company to make sure that we have the right conditions, right?

Speaker #1: So it's incremental to what we are earning today. And as you know, the idea here is that we're going to be except for Systeo where we are really increasing capacity, in Dunkirk, we are we're going to be replacing one furnace.

Speaker #1: So we are not really looking to increase capacity. So what you have is really what is incremental. And then I think it's also important to take into account that the amount of the investments, right?

Speaker #1: And that's why we were so focused as a company to make sure that we have the right conditions, right? So that we can justify this investment.

Genuino Christino: That we can justify this investment. That's why the focus on making sure that we have visibility in terms of CBAM, visibility in terms of imports, TRQ. We have visibility in terms of our energy contract, which we now have for this project, as you know. I would encourage you also to look at what is the net amount of this context, right? In the case of Dunkirk, not only are you going to have the 50% support through the white certificates, but we're going to also be in a position to avoid the reliance of the finance that we're going to be replacing. That's why in the end, we feel that we're going to be in a position to earn a return on our investment.

Speaker #1: That's why the focus on making sure that we have visibility in terms of CBAM, visibility in terms of imports, DRQ. We have visibility in terms of our energy contract, which we now have for this project, as you know.

Speaker #1: So I would encourage you also to look at what is the net amount of this culvert, right? And then in the case of Dunkirk, not only you're going to have the 50% support through the wide certificates, but we're going to also be in a position to avoid the reline of the furnace that we're going to be replacing.

Speaker #1: So that's why in the end, we feel that we're going to be in a position to earn a return on our investment. And when it comes to the assumptions, we don't want to be too specific about it, Tristan.

Genuino Christino: When it comes to the assumptions, we don't want to be too specific about it, Tristan. As you can imagine, this is also commercially sensitive. We have our teams going out and marketing already for the future, these contracts, the green steel. I mean, as you know, for some time at least, we believe that this will be limited, right? I think this is, our teams are out there, so we don't want to be talking too much about the assumptions. Yeah.

Speaker #1: As you can imagine, this is also commercially sensitive. We have our teams going out and marketing already for the future, this contracts, the green steel.

Speaker #1: I mean, as you know, for some time, at least, we believe that this will be limited, right? So and I think this is it's our team's out there.

Speaker #1: So we don't want to be talking too much about the assumptions. Yeah.

Speaker #8: Okay. No, that's very clear. Thank you.

[Analyst] (BNP Paribas): Okay. No, that's very clear. Thank you.

Tristan Gresser: Okay. No, that's very clear. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. Thanks, Tristan. So we'll move to take the next question. Which I think will be from Ephraim. Sorry. Yes, Ephraim at City. Hi, Ephraim.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Tristan. We'll move to take the next question, which I think will be from Ephraim. Sorry, yes, Ephraim at Citi. Hi, Ephraim. Please go ahead.

Speaker #2: Please go ahead.

Speaker #7: I'm just trying to understand the page 12 AMNS future growth optionality figures. There's 15 million tonnes from Hasiva, 8 million tonnes from Andhra, which gives you 23.

Ephrem Ravi: I'm just trying to understand the page 12, AM/NS future growth optionality figures. There's 15 million tons from Hazira, 8 million tons from Andhra, which gives you 23. My understanding was that Hazira was after 15, there is an optionality of phase 2A to 18, and then phase 2B to 24. Obviously the greenfield in Andhra is sort of separate. So, is the phase 2 being delayed? Is that how we should sort of interpret that in favor of pushing ahead with the greenfield in Andhra in order to balance the balance sheet and skill sets?

Speaker #7: My understanding was that Hasiva was after 15, there is an optionality of phase 2A to 18, and then phase 2B to 24. And then obviously, the green feel in Andhra is sort of separate.

Speaker #7: So is the phase 2 being delayed, is that how we should sort of interpret that in favour of pushing ahead with the green feel in Andhra in order to balance the balance sheet and skill sets?

Genuino Christino: Ephrem, I think you're right. I mean, of course we have to phase it, right? Absolutely right. We had in front of us the 2 options. It continues to be an option for us, right? To take Hazira further and that will most likely happen over time as well. Right now, yeah, that's the sequence that we see, right? Which is we start Andhra. Yeah. Hazira will remain an option for us as well as after we complete this first phase in Andhra, we can go also for another phase there, right? The 14 million tons vision for the Indian operations remain intact.

Speaker #1: Ephraim, I think you're right. I mean, of course, we have to phase it, right? And absolutely right. So we had in front of us the two options.

Speaker #1: And it continues to be an option for us, right, to take Hasiva further, and that will most likely happen over time as well. But right now, yeah, that's the sequence that we see, right?

Speaker #1: And which is to start Andhra. And, yeah, and Hasiva will remain an option for us as well, as after we complete this first phase in Andhra.

Speaker #1: We can go also for another phase there, right? So the 14 million tonnes vision for the Indian operations remain intact.

Speaker #7: Thanks. And then you've said that obviously, your current energy situation is manageable. Hedging and support of policies framework for insulates margins. Can you give us a sense of timeline for that in terms of how long?

Ephrem Ravi: Thanks. You've said that, obviously your current energy situation is manageable, hedging and supportive policies framework for insulates margins. Can you give us a sense of timeline for that, in terms of how long? Because energy prices could remain high for six months, 12 months, two years. If they remain for how long would your hedging policies cover it? At what point do you think you and the industry will have to start thinking about energy surcharges in your steel?

Speaker #7: Because I mean, energy prices could remain high for six months, 12 months, two years. So if they remain for how long would your hedging policies cover it?

Speaker #7: And at what point do you think you and the industry will have to start thinking about energy surcharges in your steel?

Speaker #1: Yeah. Well, specifically in India, our programme goal, it's a multi-year programme, Ephraim. So I think we are in a good place there. So it's a multi-year.

Genuino Christino: Well, specifically in India, our program goes. It's a multi-year program, Ephrem. I think we are in a good place there. It's a multi-year and even in Europe for gas, we will also have a multi-year plan program. I think, as I said, I think we are in a good place.

Speaker #1: And even in Europe, for gas, we will also have a multi-year plan programme. So I think we are as I said, I think we are in a good place.

Speaker #7: Okay. Thank you.

Ephrem Ravi: Okay. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. Thanks, Ephraim. So we'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Ephrem. We'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Cole at Jefferies. Hi, Cole, please go ahead.

Speaker #8: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like a little bit of colour on the metals on iron ore, just the ramp-up on volumes and how you see that into the second quarter, just any colour you can provide.

[Analyst] (Jefferies): Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like a little bit of color on the metals, on iron ore, just the ramp up on volumes and how you see that into Q2. Just any color you can provide. I'd also just like to follow up on imports into Europe ahead of the trade barriers. I mean, we've seen a lot of logistics disruptions globally. Do you think that there's a possibility that everyone's expecting a lot of imports into Europe, but considering the supply chains, we just don't see them delivered in time or, you know, customers potentially pull back on some of those orders just considering they might not meet the delivery dates? Just any thoughts on that. Thank you.

Cole Hathorn: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I'd just like a little bit of color on the metals, on iron ore, just the ramp up on volumes and how you see that into Q2. Just any color you can provide. I'd also just like to follow up on imports into Europe ahead of the trade barriers. I mean, we've seen a lot of logistics disruptions globally. Do you think that there's a possibility that everyone's expecting a lot of imports into Europe, but considering the supply chains, we just don't see them delivered in time or, you know, customers potentially pull back on some of those orders just considering they might not meet the delivery dates? Just any thoughts on that. Thank you.

Speaker #8: And then I'd also just like to follow up on imports into Europe ahead of the trade barriers. I mean, we've seen a lot of logistics disruptions globally.

Speaker #8: Do you think that there's a possibility that everyone’s expecting a lot of imports into Europe, but considering the supply chains, we just don't see them delivered in time? Or that customers potentially pulled back on some of those orders, just considering they might not meet the delivery dates? Just any thoughts on that?

Speaker #8: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Yeah. So maybe I'll take this one, Daniel, and then maybe you can comment on I don't know. So you're right. So I think what we are seeing, of course, is at this point in time, what we are seeing, it's more a cost issue, right?

Genuino Christino: Maybe I'll take this one then, and then maybe you can comment on, I don't know. You're right. I think what we are seeing, of course, is at this point in time, what we are seeing is more a cost issue, right? We are seeing freight rates going up. Of course, some of the journey is also taking longer because of the conflict. It's not something that we believe should be delaying the arrival of the materials. I think that's why we, as we discussed, we feel that Q2 should still end up with elevated levels of imports, right? As a final quarter and then from Q3 onwards, the new TRQ comes into play.

Speaker #1: We are seeing freight rates going up. And of course, some of the journey is also taking longer because of the conflict. But it's not something that we believe should be delaying the arrival of the materials.

Speaker #1: So I think that's why as we discussed, we feel that second quarter should still end up with elevated levels of imports. Right? And as a final quarter, and then from Q3 onwards, the new TRQ comes into play.

Speaker #1: And I would say that this window is now closed, right, as we are here almost the beginning of May. The window to imports, they are basically under the existing safeguards regime, getting close to an end.

Genuino Christino: I would say that this window is now closed, right? As we are here almost beginning of May, the window to imports, they are basically under the existing safeguards regime are getting close to an end. The fact that we don't have yet the quotas for the new TRQ, and split by country, I mean, it makes it even a little bit harder for imports, right? That's what we are seeing. Dan, you wanna talk about the... I don't know.

Speaker #1: And the fact that we don't have yet the quarters for the new TRQ is split by country. I mean, it makes it even a little bit harder for imports, right?

Speaker #1: So that's what we are seeing. Daniel, do you want to talk about the—I don't know.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Sorry, Cole, would you mind just repeating that question?

Daniel Fairclough: Yeah. Sorry, Cole, would you mind just repeating that question?

Speaker #8: Just a little bit of colour on just a little bit of colour on the iron ore production that you're expecting into Q2 and any of the phasing through the year, just so that we can think about that in the model?

[Analyst] (Jefferies): Just a little bit of color on the iron ore production that you're expecting into Q2 and any of the phasing through the year, just so we can think about that in the model.

Cole Hathorn: Just a little bit of color on the iron ore production that you're expecting into Q2 and any of the phasing through the year, just so we can think about that in the model.

Speaker #2: Yeah. Sure. So thank you. So we did have obviously a good start to the year in Liberia and other record production shipment quarter. So I think as we and that will just continue over the next three quarters.

Daniel Fairclough: Yeah, sure. Thank you. We did have, obviously a good start to the year in Liberia, another record production shipment quarter. I think that will just continue over the next 3 quarters. We've signaled in our initial guidance at the beginning of the year that we expect to be at full capacity and in the H2 and to achieve at least 18 million tons of shipments. Yeah, that's how I would be factoring it into the model. Some further improvement in the Q2. I expect that we will navigate the rainy season through Q3. We continue to improve in our ability to navigate that.

Speaker #2: So we've signalled in our initial guidance at the beginning of the year that we expect to be at full capacity and in the second half and to achieve at least 18 million tonnes of shipments.

Speaker #2: So yeah, I would just be that's how it would be factoring it into the model. Some further improvement in the second quarter. I expect that we will navigate the rainy season through Q3.

Speaker #2: We continue to improve on our ability to navigate that. And then I would expect we should finish with a strong fourth quarter performance.

Daniel Fairclough: Then I would expect we should finish with a strong Q4 performance.

Speaker #8: And then maybe just following up on iron ore, you've been very clear that the energy situation is manageable across the rest of the business.

[Analyst] (Jefferies): Maybe just following up on iron ore. You've been very clear that, you know, the energy situation's manageable across the rest of the business. Are there any things we should be thinking about in iron ore costs just for diesel, et cetera, on the mining side?

Cole Hathorn: Maybe just following up on iron ore. You've been very clear that, you know, the energy situation's manageable across the rest of the business. Are there any things we should be thinking about in iron ore costs just for diesel, et cetera, on the mining side?

Speaker #8: But are there any things we should be thinking about in iron ore costs just for diesel, etc., on the mining side?

Genuino Christino: I think the only thing I would call out is freight, right? I think the profitability of mining in Q2 will depend, of course, much more of course where prices finally land, and freight, right? Oil will have an impact as well. Based on what I see today, I would be more focused on prices and freight.

Speaker #1: I think the only thing I would call out, Cole, is freight, right? I think the profitability of mining in Q2 will depend, of course, much more, of course, where price is finally land.

Speaker #1: And freight, right? So oil will have an impact as well. But based on what I see today, I would be more focused on prices and freight.

Speaker #8: Thank you.

[Analyst] (Jefferies): Thank you.

Cole Hathorn: Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. Thanks, Cole. So we'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Andy at UBS. Hi, Andy. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Thanks, Cole. We'll move to the next question, which we'll take from Andy at UBS. Hi, Andy. Please go ahead.

Speaker #9: Yes. Thanks, Jens. I've got a few follow-ups to previous questions. Just on that potential tariff carve-out in North America, my understanding is it's based upon volumes sold just into the auto sector.

Andrew Jones: Yes, thanks, gents. I've got a few follow-ups to previous questions. Just on that potential tariff carve-out in North America. My understanding is it's based upon volumes sold just into the auto sector. If you ship slabs from Mexico into Calvert, is it your understanding you'd potentially get some relief on those if they're then resold into auto? That's the first one. I've got a couple of modeling ones to follow.

Andy Jones: Yes, thanks, gents. I've got a few follow-ups to previous questions. Just on that potential tariff carve-out in North America. My understanding is it's based upon volumes sold just into the auto sector. If you ship slabs from Mexico into Calvert, is it your understanding you'd potentially get some relief on those if they're then resold into auto? That's the first one. I've got a couple of modeling ones to follow.

Speaker #9: So if you ship slabs from Mexico into Calvert, is it your understanding you'd potentially get some relief on those if they're then resold into auto?

Speaker #9: That's the first one. I've got a couple of modeling ones to follow.

Genuino Christino: Andy, as I said, I mean, we just got all these details, right? The teams are busy going through that, so I don't want to anticipate the analysis. If you don't mind, I think we will address that with you next quarter. I'm sure we'll have more color and information to provide on that.

Speaker #1: Andy, as I said, I mean, we just got all these details, right? And the teams are busy going through that. So I don't want to anticipate the analysis.

Speaker #1: If you don't mind, I think we will address that with you next quarter and I'm sure we will have more colour and information to provide on that.

Speaker #9: Yeah. Okay. No worries. And just a couple of modeling ones. On the Ukraine contribution, I mean, that was obviously a drag in the first quarter.

Andrew Jones: Yeah. Okay. No worries. Just a couple of modeling ones. On the Ukraine contribution, I mean, that was obviously a drag in Q1. Can you quantify that on EBITDA? Do you see anything changing into Q2?

Andy Jones: Yeah. Okay. No worries. Just a couple of modeling ones. On the Ukraine contribution, I mean, that was obviously a drag in Q1. Can you quantify that on EBITDA? Do you see anything changing into Q2?

Speaker #9: Can you quantify that on EBITDA? And do you see anything changing into Q2?

Speaker #1: Yeah, yeah, it was. Q1 was a challenging quarter for Ukraine, right? So, energy prices in particular were really very, very high. So as we discussed before, Ukraine, they have been managing relatively well.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Yeah. It, it was. Q1 was a challenging quarter for Ukraine, right? Energy prices in particular, very high. As we discussed before, Ukraine, they have been managing relatively well, right? In the whole of 2025, as we discussed, at EBITDA level, they managed to be basically neutral. Still free cash negative of course because of CapEx. Q1, EBITDA was negative as a result of the high energy costs. Energy has come down, which is good news. We do expect to do better in Q2, right? As we know, the situation remains very challenging. At least on that front, we expect to do better.

Speaker #1: Right? So in the whole of 2025, as we discussed, had a bit of level, they managed to be basically neutral. Still free cash negative, of course, because of CAPEX.

Speaker #1: Q1 a bit of was negative. As a result of the high energy costs. Energy has come down. So which is good news. So we do expect to do better in the second quarter, right?

Speaker #1: But as we know, the situation remains very challenging. But at least on that front, we expect to do better. And that has been really one of the key drivers of the result.

Genuino Christino: That has been really one of the key drivers of the result.

Andrew Jones: Okay. That's clear. Just finally on Mexico, the operating issues that you had last year, there was a little bit of overspill into Q1. Like how material was that? I think you've, you know, I think maybe in Q4 you called out $65 million hit. I mean, what was the equivalent number in Q1? Was it material?

Andy Jones: Okay. That's clear. Just finally on Mexico, the operating issues that you had last year, there was a little bit of overspill into Q1. Like how material was that? I think you've, you know, I think maybe in Q4 you called out $65 million hit. I mean, what was the equivalent number in Q1? Was it material?

Speaker #9: Okay. That's clear. And just finally on Mexico, the operating issues that you had last year, there was a little bit of overspill into one queue.

Speaker #9: How material was that? I think you've I think it may be in the fourth quarter you called out 65 million hits. I mean, what was the equivalent number in one queue?

Speaker #9: Was it material?

Speaker #1: Yeah. So the evolution in Mexico is very good, right? We started the finance, which is producing long products. So we were not yet at full capacity in Q1 in long.

Genuino Christino: The evolution in Mesquites is very good, right? We restarted the furnace which is producing long products. We were not yet at full capacity in Q1 in long, so we're gonna be at full capacity in Q2. I would expect our production and shipments in North America to continue to improve as we move forward, right? It's no longer, of course, the same magnitude that we had in prior quarters. I think it's a very good evolution. As we discussed at the time of Q4, you see profitability in North America was leveling, and we should continue to see progress going forward in Q2.

Speaker #1: So we're going to be at full capacity in quarter two. So I would expect our production and shipments in North America to continue to improve as we move forward, right?

Speaker #1: But it's no longer, of course, the same magnitude. That we had in prior quarters. So I think it's a very good evolution. As we discussed at the time of Q4, you see profitability in North America was doubling.

Speaker #1: And we should continue to see progress going forward in the second quarter. But production is now up and running. And it's only now this the full capacity of the furnace that you should see in quarter two.

Genuino Christino: Production is now up and running, and it's only now, this, the full capacity of the furnace that you should see, in Q2.

Speaker #9: Okay. That's fine. Thank you.

Andrew Jones: Okay. That's fine. Thank you.

Andy Jones: Okay. That's fine. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thanks, Andy. So, we'll move now to take a question from Timna at Wells Fargo. Hi, Timna.

Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Amit. We'll move now to take a question from Timna at Wells Fargo. Hi, Timna.

Speaker #10: Yeah, hey, thanks. I wanted to actually double-click, as the kids say these days, on North America just a bit more, if I could. I think we obviously, as you point out in the last response, are seeing a nice benefit.

Timna Tanners: Yeah. Hey, thanks. I wanted to actually double-click, as the kids say these days, on North America just a bit more, if I could. I think, obviously, as you pointed out in the last response, seeing a nice benefit, it was the biggest contributor to Q1 over Q4 from rising prices. You know, you have some locked up in annual contracts. Can you talk to us about how auto annual contracts fleshed out a bit, or give us high level color on that? Also, do you think that you could see the same order of magnitude in the US into Q2, given the pace of price increases? Also wanted some more color on how Calvert was ramping up. Thanks.

Speaker #10: It was the biggest contributor to Q1 over Q4 from rising prices. You have some locked up in annual contracts. Can you talk to us about how auto annual contracts fleshed out a bit or give us high-level colour on that?

Speaker #10: And then also, do you think that you could see the same order of magnitude in the US into Q2, given the pace of price increases?

Speaker #10: And then also wanted some more colour on how Calvert was ramping up things.

Speaker #1: Yeah. Hi, Tim. So automotive, I mean, as you know, in the US, our contracts, they are really the negotiations happen throughout the year. It's a little bit more spread out compared to Europe.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Hi, Timna. Automotive, I mean, as you know, in the US, our contracts, they are really the negotiations happen throughout the year. It's a little bit more spread out compared to Europe. In Europe, we have a concentration really at the beginning of the year. In US, it's more, I would say more like, you know, 30% Q1, 30% from Q2, and then the rest is 25% Q3. I think we are doing well. As you know, we don't really comment so much on the outcome of these negotiations, but I have to say that they are going in line with our expectations. It's good.

Speaker #1: In Europe, we have a concentration really at the beginning of the year. In the US, it's more, I would say, more like 30, 30% Q1, 30% from quarter two.

Speaker #1: And then the rest is 25. It's Q3. So I think we are doing well. And as you know, we don't really comment so much on the outcome of these negotiations.

Speaker #1: But I have to say that they are going in line with our expectations. It's good. The ramp-up at Calvert, the EAF is progressing. So in quarter one, we were a little bit running above already 20, 25 percent.

Genuino Christino: The ramp-up at Calvert, the EAF is progressing. So in Q1, we were a little bit running above already 20% to 25%. We are progressing. We believe that by the end of Q2, we should be at much higher levels. We remain optimistic that we're gonna be getting close to ending this ramp-up phase by the end of this year, Timna Tanners. Then if I have.

Speaker #1: And we are progressing. We believe that by the end of quarter two, we should be at much higher levels. And we remain optimistic that we're going to be getting close to ending this ramp-up phase by the end of this year.

Speaker #1: And then if I have.

Timna Tanners: That's great. mm-hmm.

Speaker #10: Mm-hmm.

Speaker #1: No, no. Go ahead, Tim.

Genuino Christino: No, no, go ahead, Timna.

Speaker #10: Oh, no. I just wanted to ask about if you would be able to quantify the extent of the price increase in Q1 over Q4, if that could be sustained given recent price strengths.

Timna Tanners: Oh, no, I just wanted to ask about if you would be able to quantify the extent of the price increase in Q1 over Q4, if that could be sustained given recent price strengths continuing into Q2?

Speaker #10: Continuing into Q2.

Speaker #1: Yeah. Look, we're not going to be quantifying that. But, I mean, I think you know very well how prices have moved up in the US.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Look, I'm, we're not gonna be quantifying that, but I mean, I think you know very well how prices have moved up in US. I mean, they continue to rise, and you should see that reflect in our results. Of course, I mean, we talked about automotive, the annual contracts and how much is resetting, right? Yeah.

Speaker #1: I mean, they continue to rise. And you should see that reflect in our results. Of course, I mean, we talked about the automotive, the annual contracts, and how much is resetting, right?

Speaker #1: So yeah. So I.

Speaker #10: Okay. And one further one, if I could, please. We're hearing a bit about switching away from aluminum to steel. In the US, of course, as in a more extreme change in prices between the two.

Timna Tanners: Okay. One further one, if I could, please. We're hearing a bit about switching away from aluminum to steel. In the US, of course, it's been a more extreme, you know, change in prices between the two, but even in Europe, to the extent that the BYD are getting built and have more steel amount in them versus aluminum. It'd be great to get any observations that you're seeing on switching away from aluminum to steel in automotive. Thanks.

Speaker #10: But even in Europe, to the extent that the BYDs are getting built and have more steel amount in them versus aluminum. So it'd be great to get any observations that you're seeing on switching away from aluminum to steel in automotive things.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. I think you're right. I think this is, to be honest, it has been at least now a less of an issue. We continue to be very focused on that, showing the benefits of steel to our customers. I think we have been very successful there, Tina, as you know. I think we continue to make improvements there. It's not something that I would highlight to you as, you know, as a big concern that we have at this point, right? Of course, we remain very focused on R&D, making sure that we have the right grades, we achieve what customers want. We have successes.

Speaker #1: Yeah, so when we look at the—I think you're right. I think this is, to be honest, it has been at least now less of an issue.

Speaker #1: We continue to be very focused on that showing the benefits of CO2 to our customers. I think we have been very successful there, Tim.

Speaker #1: As you know, so I think we continue to make improvements there. So it's not something that I would highlight to you as a big concern that we have at this point, right?

Speaker #1: But of course, we remain very focused on R&D, making sure that we have the right crates. We achieve what customers want. So we have successes.

Genuino Christino: When we look at the level of intensity, steel intensity on average, we see relative stability.

Speaker #1: And so when we look at the level of intensity, steel intensity, on average, we see relatively stability.

Genuino Christino: When we look at the level of intensity, steel intensity on average, we see relative stability.

Speaker #10: Great. Thank you.

Timna Tanners: All right. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thanks, Timna. So we'll move now to question from Tom at Barclays. Hi, Tom. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Timna. We'll move now to a question from Tom at Barclays. Hi, Tom. Please go ahead.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Yeah. Hey, thanks very much. Just one quick follow-up for me just on Ukraine. You talked about obviously high energy costs having an impact in Q1. Are you seeing anything from CBAM impacting Ukraine? I guess one of your Ukrainian peers has called out CBAM as being, you know, quite a big disruptor for Ukrainian steel going into Europe because I think it's not exempt at the moment. There's been a few articles saying maybe some order cancellations. Yeah. Are you seeing any kind of impact there?

Speaker #11: Yeah. Hey, thanks very much. Just one quick follow-up for me, just on Ukraine. You talked about, obviously, high energy costs, having an impact in Q1.

Tom Zhang: Yeah. Hey, thanks very much. Just one quick follow-up for me just on Ukraine. You talked about obviously high energy costs having an impact in Q1. Are you seeing anything from CBAM impacting Ukraine? I guess one of your Ukrainian peers has called out CBAM as being, you know, quite a big disruptor for Ukrainian steel going into Europe because I think it's not exempt at the moment. There's been a few articles saying maybe some order cancellations. Yeah. Are you seeing any kind of impact there?

Speaker #11: Are you seeing anything from CBAM impacting Ukraine? I guess one of your Ukrainian peers has called out CBAM as being quite a big disruptor for Ukrainian steel going into Europe because I think it's not exempt at the moment.

Speaker #11: There's been a few articles saying maybe some order cancellations. Yeah. Are you seeing any kind of impact there?

Speaker #1: Yeah. I think there was an expectation that Ukraine would be exempted, right? And they are not. And we believe that it's right. It shouldn't be exemptions, right?

Genuino Christino: Yeah. I think there was an expectation that Ukraine would be exempted, right? They are not. We believe that it's right. There shouldn't be exemptions, right? At the same time, prices are increasing in Europe. If you have the right cost base, of course, then you should be competitive. In our business, of course, we are focused in Ukraine on the domestic market, right? Also selling pig to different parts of the globe. There's good demand for pig, which we continue to sell.

Speaker #1: At the same time, prices are increasing in Europe. So if you have the right cost base, of course, then you should be competitive in our business.

Speaker #1: Of course, we are focused in Ukraine to on the domestic market, right? And also selling big to different parts of the globe. There's good demand, of course, big, which we continue to sell.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Sorry, I didn't quite catch that. Did you say it shouldn't be or it should be exempt from CBAM? You think.

Speaker #11: Sorry. I didn't quite catch that. Did you say you were it shouldn't be or it should be exempt from CBAM? You think.

Tom Zhang: Sorry, I didn't quite catch that. Did you say it shouldn't be or it should be exempt from CBAM? You think.

Genuino Christino: It shouldn't be, it shouldn't be any exemption.

Speaker #1: It shouldn't be. It shouldn't be any exemption.

Speaker #11: Shouldn't. Okay. So you're focusing more on the domestic market. And you would say there was some kind of earnings impact that, I guess, persists into Q2 if an exemption doesn't come through?

[Analyst] (Barclays): Shouldn't. Okay. You're focusing more on the domestic market.

Tom Zhang: Shouldn't. Okay. You're focusing more on the domestic market.

Genuino Christino: Yeah.

[Analyst] (Barclays): You would say there was some kind of earnings impact that, I guess, persist into Q2 if an exemption doesn't come through. Then just second question, just on sort of buyback thoughts, really. I mean, I know your capital allocation policy hasn't changed. We haven't seen any buybacks for nearly a year now. If I look at your free cash over the last 12 months, it's it is positive, and I guess you're talking about earnings ramping up through the rest of the year. Is that sort of back on the cards potentially to restart that buyback program?

Tom Zhang: You would say there was some kind of earnings impact that, I guess, persist into Q2 if an exemption doesn't come through. Then just second question, just on sort of buyback thoughts, really. I mean, I know your capital allocation policy hasn't changed. We haven't seen any buybacks for nearly a year now. If I look at your free cash over the last 12 months, it's it is positive, and I guess you're talking about earnings ramping up through the rest of the year. Is that sort of back on the cards potentially to restart that buyback program?

Speaker #11: Then just second question, just on sort of buyback thoughts, really. I mean, I know your capital allocation policy hasn't changed. We haven't seen any buybacks for nearly a year now.

Speaker #11: If I look at your free cash over the last 12 months, it is positive. And I guess you're talking about earnings ramping up through the rest of the year.

Speaker #11: Is that sort of back on the cards, potentially, to restart that buyback program?

Speaker #1: Well, I think you're right. So you know our policy, right? And we had, by the way, in Q1, our first quarterly dividend, which was paid.

Genuino Christino: Well, I think you're right. You know, you know our policy, right? We had, by the way, in Q1, our first quarterly dividend, which was paid. We remain very optimistic that we're gonna be free cash flow positive this year. The policy will kick in. Based on the visibility that I have today, I see no reason why we would not go above the minimum 50% as we have been doing in the last couple of years. If I can remind everyone, the policies has been really great. I mean, we bought more than 38% of our stock, I think we are close to restart that.

Speaker #1: We remain very optimistic that we're going to be free cash flow positive this year, and then the policy will kick in. Based on the visibility that I have today, I see no reason why we would not go above the minimum 50%, as we have been doing in the last couple of years.

Speaker #1: And if I can remind everyone, the policy has been really great. I mean, we bought more than 38% of our stock. And I think we are close to restart that.

Speaker #11: Okay. Great. And sorry, you just said so optimistic, free cash flow positive this year. Then the policy will kick in. Does that mean the policy only kicks in once you sort of see the full year numbers in?

[Analyst] (Barclays): Okay, great. Sorry, you just said, so optimistic, free cash flow positive this year, then the policy will kick in. Does that mean the policy only kicks in once you sort of see the full year numbers in, or is it more dynamic than that? You know, if you have good-

Tom Zhang: Okay, great. Sorry, you just said, so optimistic, free cash flow positive this year, then the policy will kick in. Does that mean the policy only kicks in once you sort of see the full year numbers in, or is it more dynamic than that? You know, if you have good-

Speaker #11: Or is it more dynamic than that? If you have good enough visibility, you could start sooner?

Genuino Christino: No, I think.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Enough visibility, you could start sooner.

Tom Zhang: Enough visibility, you could start sooner.

Speaker #1: Yeah. I mean, it is more dynamic.

Genuino Christino: Yeah. You know, I mean, it is more dynamic.

[Analyst] (Barclays): Yep. Okay. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Tom Zhang: Yep. Okay. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Speaker #11: Okay. Appreciate that. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. So we have time for maybe two or three more questions. So the first, we will take from Max at Otto. Hi, Max. Please go ahead.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. We have time for maybe two, three more questions. The first we will take from Max at ODDO BHF. Hi, Max, please go ahead.

Speaker #12: Yeah. Good afternoon, Chen. So first question is, you published last week a sustainability report where you cut your carbon emissions objective to minus 10% from minus 30% previously by 2030.

[Analyst] (ODDO BHF): Yeah, good afternoon, gents. First question is, you published last week a sustainability report, where you cut your carbon emissions objective to -10% from -30% previously by 2030. I think the new objective is very dependent actually on Dunkirk being delivered on time in 2030. My question is, what would be, in your view, a more realistic timeline for the 30% reduction? Is it the mid-thirties, the late thirties, even beyond? How should we think about the sequencing of the next year for projects in Europe? Are you waiting for Gijon to be delivered and ramped up before potentially launching investments, or will it come perhaps even later?

Max Kogge: Yeah, good afternoon, gents. First question is, you published last week a sustainability report, where you cut your carbon emissions objective to -10% from -30% previously by 2030. I think the new objective is very dependent actually on Dunkirk being delivered on time in 2030. My question is, what would be, in your view, a more realistic timeline for the 30% reduction? Is it the mid-thirties, the late thirties, even beyond? How should we think about the sequencing of the next year for projects in Europe? Are you waiting for Gijon to be delivered and ramped up before potentially launching investments, or will it come perhaps even later?

Speaker #12: I think the new objective is very dependent, actually, on Dinkirk being delivered on time. In 2030, so my question is, what would be in your view a more realistic timeline for the 30% reduction?

Speaker #12: Is it the mid-30s, the late 30s, even beyond? And how should we think about the sequencing of the next EF projects in Europe? Are you waiting for Giron to be delivered and ramped up before potentially launching the investments?

Speaker #12: Or will it come perhaps even later?

Genuino Christino: Yeah. Do you wanna start with this one, Daniel?

Speaker #1: Yeah. Do you want to start with this one, Daniel?

Speaker #2: Yeah. Thanks, Gemino. So I think your right to observe the change to our 2030 target, we'd well flag that, I think, in recent reports and communications.

Daniel Fairclough: Thanks, Germino. I think you're right to observe the change to our 2030 target. We'd well flagged that, I think, in recent reports and communications. What's, I think, important to take away is that that 2030 target is based on the announced projects. It's a number that we are confident we can achieve, and that's why we updated it. In terms of the timing of the next EAF projects, I think if you look at our communications and our messaging, we've also been quite clear that our EAF projects are gonna be sequential. We don't expect significant overlap on any of our blast furnace to EAF projects. The focus right now is completing Gijon.

Speaker #2: What's, I think, important to take away is that that 2030 target is based on the announced projects. So it's a number that we are confident we can achieve.

Speaker #2: And that's why we updated it. In terms of the timing of the next EF projects, I think if you look at our communications and our messaging, we've also been quite clear that our EF projects are going to be sequential.

Speaker #2: So we don't expect significant overlap on any of our blast furnace to EF projects. So the focus right now is completing Gijón. We've just announced Dunkirk.

Daniel Fairclough: We've just announced Dunkirk, and that will occupy us for the medium term. Then the intention and time is to obviously communicate on what the project that will then follow will be. Let's really focus on getting a smooth start to Dunkirk at this stage, and then we will update on the next project in due course.

Speaker #2: And that will occupy us for the medium term. And then the intention and time is to obviously communicate on what the project that will then follow will be.

Speaker #2: So let's really focus on getting a smooth start to Dunkirk at this stage and then we will update on the next project in due course.

Speaker #12: Okay. And just a second and last one. It's about the German stimulus plan. So expectations in the recent weeks have gone down. Actually, amid the red tape, other priorities perhaps than infra for the new German government.

[Analyst] (ODDO BHF): Okay. Just a second and last one, it's about the German stimulus plan. Expectations in the recent weeks have gone down actually, amid the red tape, other priorities perhaps than infra for the new German government. What's your latest view on the topic? You were quite vocal previously on it, saying that it could increase demand in Europe by around 2% per year over the next 10 years. Is that still your view?

Max Kogge: Okay. Just a second and last one, it's about the German stimulus plan. Expectations in the recent weeks have gone down actually, amid the red tape, other priorities perhaps than infra for the new German government. What's your latest view on the topic? You were quite vocal previously on it, saying that it could increase demand in Europe by around 2% per year over the next 10 years. Is that still your view?

Speaker #12: So what's your latest view on the topic? You were quite vocal previously on it, saying that it could increase demand in Europe by around 2% per year over the next 10 years.

Speaker #12: Is that still your scenario? And when do you expect that to really kick in? Already next 2026. So it's more of a story of 2027 or even 2028 based on your latest understanding.

[Analyst] (ODDO BHF): Your scenario, and when do you expect that to really kick in? Already next to 2026, or it's more of a story of 2027 or even, 2028, based on your latest understanding?

Max Kogge: Your scenario, and when do you expect that to really kick in? Already next to 2026, or it's more of a story of 2027 or even, 2028, based on your latest understanding?

Speaker #1: Well, I mean, to be honest, I mean, we don't see any significant change there. I mean, when we look at the impact of the program, we start actually to see some activity, right?

Genuino Christino: Well, I mean, to be honest, I mean, we don't see any significant change there. I mean, when we look at the impact of the program, we start actually to see some activity, right? I don't believe that the overall numbers that we talked about, they will change. I mean, we, at least, that's not the intelligence that we have. We will of course have to keep monitoring that. I think we are progressing as the progress is happening there.

Speaker #1: So, I don't believe that the overall numbers that we talked about—they will change. I mean, at least that's not the intelligence that we have. We will, of course, have to keep monitoring that.

Speaker #1: But I think we are progressing, as the progress is happening there.

Speaker #12: Okay. Thank you.

[Analyst] (ODDO BHF): Okay. Thank you.

Max Kogge: Okay. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. Good stuff. So we've do have time for two more questions. So we'll take the first from Dominic at JPMorgan. Hi, Dominic.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. Good stuff. If we do have time for two more questions, we'll take the first from Dominic at JPMorgan. Hi, Dominic.

[Analyst] (JPMorgan): Hello. Thanks for taking my question. Two quick questions. You've spoken given us a lot of granularity on Europe. Just maybe coming back to the US. Given how tight we see that market at the moment, do you think there's any possibility that you actually run harder than through Q2 than normal? Obviously, we often see a summer slowdown. Do you think there is some potential that given the state of lead times that you may run harder than normal? Second question just on any kind of obvious cash flow items we need to be aware of for Q2 modeling for the net debt bridge?

Dominic O'Kane: Hello. Thanks for taking my question. Two quick questions. You've spoken given us a lot of granularity on Europe. Just maybe coming back to the US. Given how tight we see that market at the moment, do you think there's any possibility that you actually run harder than through Q2 than normal? Obviously, we often see a summer slowdown. Do you think there is some potential that given the state of lead times that you may run harder than normal? Second question just on any kind of obvious cash flow items we need to be aware of for Q2 modeling for the net debt bridge?

Speaker #13: Hello. Thanks for taking my question. So two quick questions. You've spoken and given us a lot of granularity on Europe. And again, just maybe coming back to the US, given how tight we see that market at the moment, do you think there's any possibility that you actually run harder than through Q2 than normal?

Speaker #13: So obviously, we often see some slowdown. Do you think there is potential that, given the state of lead times, that you may run harder than normal?

Speaker #13: And second question, just on so any kind of obvious cash flow items we need to be aware of for Q2 modeling for the net debt bridge?

Genuino Christino: Dominic, in US, I mean, as you know, we are running our facilities full. I mean, Calvert is, we have been running at high levels. That will continue, right? Where you're gonna see improvements in terms of production, shipments is going to be more really in Mexico and a little bit also in Canada, right? The focus in US for us right now is to ramp up the electric EAF as we talked about. That will bring more results, it should contribute to results. The second part of the question, can you repeat that for me, please?

Speaker #2: Dominic, so anywhere else—I mean, as you know, we are running our facilities full. I mean, covered is, we have been running at a high level.

Speaker #2: And that will continue, right? So where you're going to see improvements in terms of production shipments is going to be more really in Mexico, and a little bit also in Canada.

Speaker #2: Right? And the focus in the US for us right now is to ramp up the EF as we talked about. That will bring more results.

Speaker #2: So we should contribute to results. And the second part of the question, can you repeat that for me, please?

Speaker #13: Well, just in terms of modeling for net debt into Q2, are there any cash flow items?

[Analyst] (JPMorgan): Just in terms of modeling for net debt into Q2.

Dominic O'Kane: Just in terms of modeling for net debt into Q2.

Genuino Christino: Oh, yeah.

[Analyst] (JPMorgan): Are there any?

Dominic O'Kane: Are there any?

Genuino Christino: Yeah

[Analyst] (JPMorgan): Obvious cash flow items to be aware of?

Dominic O'Kane: Obvious cash flow items to be aware of?

Genuino Christino: Sure. Look, I would not, Daniel, I would not focus so much in Q2, right? I mean, I guess my message is more really when I think about the year as a whole. As you know, we have typically we will have a larger release of working capital in H2. That should continue to be the case despite all the improvements that we are discussing, we are seeing, right? We explained that because we built some strategic inventories end of last year that we're gonna be releasing.

Speaker #2: Yeah. I would not, Daniel, I would not focus so much on quarter two, right? I mean, I guess my message is more really when I think about the year as a whole, as you know, we have typically, we will have a larger release of working capital in the second half.

Speaker #2: That should continue to be the case, despite all the improvements that we are discussing. We are seeing, right? And we explain that because we built some strategic inventories end of last year that we're going to be releasing.

Speaker #2: So despite all the good developments that we are seeing in terms of prices, volumes in the second half, our expectation is that for full year, working capital should not really be consuming significant amount of cash, which should then support even more the free cash flow.

Genuino Christino: Despite all the good developments that we have seen in terms of prices, volumes in H2, our expectation is that for full year, working capital should not really be consuming significant amount of cash, which should then support even more the free cash flow generation.

[Analyst] (JPMorgan): Thank you.

Dominic O'Kane: Thank you.

Daniel Fairclough: Is that helpful, Dominic? I think the focus there, just to reiterate is, you know, normally the working capital movement in Q2, Q3 is not a major delta in the cash flow bridge. Where it is a major delta is normally Q1 and Q4. Normally we invest in working capital in the first quarter and this year has been no different. Normally we see a nice release of working capital in Q4. In Q2, Q3, normally that's broadly a wash. Great. I think we will now move to the last question, which we're gonna take from Matt at Goldman Sachs.

Speaker #2: Is that helpful, Dominic? So, I think the focus there, just to reiterate, is normally the working capital movement in Q2, Q3 is not a major delta.

Speaker #2: In the cash flow bridge where it is a major delta is normally Q1 and Q4. So normally, we invest in working capital in the first quarter and this year has been no different.

Speaker #2: And then normally, we see a nice release of working capital in Q4 and Q2, Q3. Normally, that's broadly a wash. Great. So I think we will now move to the last question.

Speaker #2: We're going to take for a mat at Goldman Sachs.

Speaker #14: Hi, Daniel. Thanks for squeezing me in. Look, I have one question on your Indian operations, perhaps in two parts. Januarino, you mentioned costs are largely hedged.

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): Hey, Daniel. Thanks for squeezing me in. Look, I have one question on your Indian operations, perhaps in two parts. Generally, you know, you mentioned costs are largely hedged, that's fine. Given India's reliance on gas imports primarily from the Middle East and some of your peers flagging shortages, could you outline where you're sourcing your gas from today and whether you've received any force majeure on future deliveries? Just to follow up, given your use of gas-based DRI and captive power, what measures can you realistically take to manage gas availability or reduce gas intensity across the Indian operations? Thank you.

Matt Greene: Hey, Daniel. Thanks for squeezing me in. Look, I have one question on your Indian operations, perhaps in two parts. Generally, you know, you mentioned costs are largely hedged, that's fine. Given India's reliance on gas imports primarily from the Middle East and some of your peers flagging shortages, could you outline where you're sourcing your gas from today and whether you've received any force majeure on future deliveries? Just to follow up, given your use of gas-based DRI and captive power, what measures can you realistically take to manage gas availability or reduce gas intensity across the Indian operations? Thank you.

Speaker #14: That's fine. But given India's reliance on gas imports primarily from the Middle East and some of your peers flagging shortages, could you outline where you're sourcing your gas from today and whether you've received any force majeure on future deliveries?

Speaker #14: And then just to follow up, given your use of gas-based DRI and captive power, what measures can you realistically take to manage gas availability or reduce gas intensity across the Indian operations?

Speaker #14: Thank you.

Speaker #2: So I think we are in a good place there as well. I mean, we have different sources of gas. So we are not really dependent only on the Middle East.

Genuino Christino: I think we are in a good place there as well. I mean, we have different sources of gas, we are not really dependent only on Middle East. We are in a good place. We have not had any force majeure, we have received all our gas. We have no indication we are, as we speak, in beginning of end of April, beginning of May, no indication of force majeure. I think we are, as we discussed, I think we are in a good place there. We are not expecting any disruptions because of availability. For sure on the price and also on availability, it's not something that we are really concerned at this point.

Speaker #2: So we are in a good place. So we have not had any force majeure. So we have received all our gas. We have no indication we are, as we speak, in the beginning of end of April, beginning of May, no indication of force majeure.

Speaker #2: So, I think we are, as we discussed, I think we are in a good place there. So we are not expecting any disruptions because of availability.

Speaker #2: For sure, on the price and also on availability, it's not something that we are overly concerned at this point.

Speaker #14: That's great. Thank you.

[Analyst] (Goldman Sachs): That's great. Thank you.

Matt Greene: That's great. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Great. So I'll hand back to you, Gemino, for any closing remarks.

Daniel Fairclough: Great. I'll hand back to you, Genuino, for any closing remarks.

Speaker #1: Yeah. So thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reflect on the key messages from today's discussion. First, our first quarter performance, again, demonstrates the structural improvement in the earnings power of ArcelorMittal.

Genuino Christino: Thank you, everyone. Before we close, let me briefly reflect on the key messages from today's discussion. First, our Q1 performance again demonstrates the structural improvement in the earnings power of ArcelorMittal. Margins are well above historical levels, with the further benefits of more favorable policies still to accrue. Underlying free cash is annualizing at over $2 billion. Second, we have a clear and differentiated growth pipeline. Our strategic investments are supporting our results and materially enhancing our future EBITDA potential. Finally, the positive outlook for our business is underpinned by more supportive trade policy, especially for Europe. More effective trade protections are fostering a more regionalized market structure, providing a robust platform for higher capacity utilization and profitability and higher and more consistent returns on capital employed.

Speaker #1: Margins are well above historical levels with the further benefits of more favorable policy steel to accrue. Underlying free cash is annualizing at over $2 billion.

Speaker #1: Second, we have a clear and differentiated growth pipeline. Our strategic investments are supporting our results. And materially enhancing our future EBITDA potential. Finally, the positive outlook for our business is underpinned by more supported trade policy, especially for Europe.

Speaker #1: More effective trade protections are fostering a more regionalized market structure. Providing a robust platform for higher capacitization and profitability and higher and more consistent returns on capital employed.

Speaker #1: Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, it supports the free cash flow outlook for ArcelorMittal and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders.

Genuino Christino: Alongside the impact of our growth strategy, this supports the free cash flow outlook for ArcelorMittal and the delivery of consistent capital returns to shareholders. With that, I will close today's call. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Dan and his team. Thank you again for joining us. I look forward to speak with you soon. Stay safe and keep those around you safe as well. Thank you.

Speaker #1: With that, I will close today's call. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Daniel and his team. Thank you again for joining us.

Q1 2026 ArcelorMittal SA Earnings Call

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