Q2 2026 Olin Corp Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Good morning, and welcome to Olin Corp's second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.
Nick: Good morning. Welcome to Olin Corporation's Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. Following today's brief opening comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.
Operator: Good morning. Welcome to Olin Corporation's Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. Following today's brief opening comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, Olin's Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Steve.
Speaker #1: Following today's brief opening comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touch-tone phone.
Speaker #1: To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Steve Keenan, OLIN's Director of Investor Relations.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead, Steve.
Speaker #2: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's second quarter 2026 results. Please keep in mind that the discussion today, together with the associated slides, as well as the question-and-answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance.
Steve Keenan: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's Q2 2026 results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides, as well as the question and answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K, and in yesterday's Q2 earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.
Steve Keenan: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today to review Olin's Q2 2026 results. Please keep in mind that today's discussion, together with the associated slides, as well as the question and answer session that follows, will include statements regarding estimates or expectations of future performance. Please note these are forward-looking statements and that Olin's actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the Risk Factors section of our most recent Form 10-K, and in yesterday's Q2 earnings press release. A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the Investors section under Past Events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under Press Releases.
Speaker #2: Please note these are forward-looking statements, and that OLIN's actual results could differ materially from those projected. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ from our projections are described without limitations in the risk factors section of our most recent Form 10-K, and in yesterday's second quarter earnings press release.
Speaker #2: A copy of today's transcript and slides will be available on our website in the investor section under past events. Our earnings press release and related financial data and information are available under press releases.
Speaker #2: With me this morning are Kenneth Lane, OLIN's President and CEO, and Todd Slater, OLIN CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions.
Steve Keenan: With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. Let me now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.
Steve Keenan: With me this morning are Ken Lane, Olin's President and CEO, and Todd Slater, Olin's CFO. We'll start with some prepared remarks, then we'll look forward to taking your questions. Let me now turn the call over to Olin's President and CEO, Ken Lane.
Speaker #2: Let me now turn the call over to OLIN's President and CEO, Kenneth Lane.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Steve, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Olin and taking the time to join us on such a busy morning.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Steve, thanks to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Olin and taking the time to join us on such a busy morning. Let's begin with some highlights from Q2 on slide three. On 16 June, we were very pleased to announce our planned merger with Huntsman, bringing together two highly complementary businesses to create a world-scale, vertically integrated North American-focused chemical leader with more than $12 billion in sales. Q2 also saw the conflict involving Iran disrupt chemical supply chains and increase prices. Markets rebalanced as the quarter progressed, although significant uncertainty remains. Caustic soda and EDC export pricing was a Q2 bright spot, reflecting the supply chain disruptions at the beginning of the quarter. This was partially offset by an unplanned VCM shutdown at our Freeport, Texas facility.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Steve, thanks to everyone for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Olin and taking the time to join us on such a busy morning. Let's begin with some highlights from Q2 on slide three. On 16 June, we were very pleased to announce our planned merger with Huntsman, bringing together two highly complementary businesses to create a world-scale, vertically integrated North American-focused chemical leader with more than $12 billion in sales. Q2 also saw the conflict involving Iran disrupt chemical supply chains and increase prices. Markets rebalanced as the quarter progressed, although significant uncertainty remains. Caustic soda and EDC export pricing was a Q2 bright spot, reflecting the supply chain disruptions at the beginning of the quarter. This was partially offset by an unplanned VCM shutdown at our Freeport, Texas facility.
Speaker #3: Let's begin with some highlights from the second quarter on slide 3. On June 16th, we were very pleased to announce our planned merger with Huntsman.
Speaker #3: Bringing together two highly complementary businesses to create a world-scale vertically integrated North American-focused chemical leader with more than 12 billion dollars in sales. The second quarter also saw the conflict involving Iran-disrupt chemical supply chains and increased prices.
Speaker #3: Markets rebalanced as the quarter progressed, although significant uncertainty remains. Caustic soda and EDC export pricing were a second quarter bright spot, reflecting the supply chain disruptions at the beginning of the quarter.
Speaker #3: This was partially offset by an unplanned VCM shutdown at our Freeport, Texas facility. Epoxy also achieved higher pricing across all products during the second quarter as hydrocarbon feedstock costs rose and availability tightened.
Ken Lane: Epoxy also achieved higher pricing across all products during Q2 as hydrocarbon feedstock costs rose and availability tightened. Epoxy demand remained weak in Europe, the US saw moderate seasonal demand improvement in the quarter. Winchester's commercial ammunition recovery continues as year-over-year demand improves and our pricing initiatives to offset rising metals costs start to gain traction. Domestic and international military sales continue to show strength. Against a backdrop of weak demand and volatile global events, Olin's self-help efforts remain top of mind. Our Value First commercial approach continues to preserve ECU values, while our Beyond 250 initiative is delivering structural cost reductions. Now let's turn to slide four for an update on our recently announced merger with Huntsman, which creates a $12 billion vertically integrated cost advantage North American chemicals leader. Since announcing the transaction, we've made significant progress in a short period of time.
Ken Lane: Epoxy also achieved higher pricing across all products during Q2 as hydrocarbon feedstock costs rose and availability tightened. Epoxy demand remained weak in Europe, the US saw moderate seasonal demand improvement in the quarter. Winchester's commercial ammunition recovery continues as year-over-year demand improves and our pricing initiatives to offset rising metals costs start to gain traction. Domestic and international military sales continue to show strength. Against a backdrop of weak demand and volatile global events, Olin's self-help efforts remain top of mind. Our Value First commercial approach continues to preserve ECU values, while our Beyond 250 initiative is delivering structural cost reductions. Now let's turn to slide four for an update on our recently announced merger with Huntsman, which creates a $12 billion vertically integrated cost advantage North American chemicals leader. Since announcing the transaction, we've made significant progress in a short period of time.
Speaker #3: Epoxy demand remained weak in Europe, but the U.S. saw moderate seasonal demand improvement in the quarter. Winchester's commercial ammunition recovery continues as year-over-year demand improves, and our pricing initiatives to offset rising metals costs are starting to gain traction.
Speaker #3: Domestic and international military sales continue to show strength. Against a backdrop of weak demand and volatile global events, OLIN's self-help efforts remain top of mind.
Speaker #3: Our value-first commercial approach continues to preserve ECU values while our beyond 250 initiative is delivering structural cost reductions. Now let's turn to slide 4 for an update on our recently announced merger with Huntsman, which creates a $12 billion vertically integrated cost-advantage North American chemicals leader.
Speaker #3: Since announcing the transaction, we've made significant progress in a short period of time. We've filed our definitive proxy on July 13th, and OLIN shareholders have already begun casting their votes as we approach the August 25th special shareholder meeting.
Ken Lane: We filed our definitive proxy on 13 July, Olin shareholders have already begun casting their votes as we approach the 25 August special shareholder meeting. Todd and I have spent recent weeks on the road with the Huntsman management team, meeting with both Olin and Huntsman shareholders, listening to feedback and discussing our value creation thesis. The response has been very supportive and reinforces our excitement about the deal. In Q3, we'll begin pre-closing integration planning led by Todd. This is a very important first step toward realizing the $400 million of synergies quickly following the close, which we continue to expect in H1 2027. Now let's turn to slide five for a closer look at our Chlor Alkali Products and vinyl Q2 performance.
Ken Lane: We filed our definitive proxy on 13 July, Olin shareholders have already begun casting their votes as we approach the 25 August special shareholder meeting. Todd and I have spent recent weeks on the road with the Huntsman management team, meeting with both Olin and Huntsman shareholders, listening to feedback and discussing our value creation thesis. The response has been very supportive and reinforces our excitement about the deal. In Q3, we'll begin pre-closing integration planning led by Todd. This is a very important first step toward realizing the $400 million of synergies quickly following the close, which we continue to expect in H1 2027. Now let's turn to slide five for a closer look at our Chlor Alkali Products and vinyl Q2 performance.
Speaker #3: Todd and I have spent recent weeks on the road with the Huntsman management team. Meeting with both OLIN and Huntsman shareholders. Listening to feedback and discussing our value creation thesis.
Speaker #3: The response has been very supportive and reinforces our excitement about the deal. In the third quarter, we'll begin pre-closing integration planning led by Todd.
Speaker #3: This is a very important first step toward realizing the $400 million of synergies quickly following the close, which we continue to expect in the first half of 2027.
Speaker #3: Now let's turn to slide 5 for a closer look at our chloralkali products and vinyl's second quarter performance. Early in the quarter, the Iran conflict drove supply chain interruptions and dramatically higher feedstock and energy costs, resulting in higher prices for many products.
Ken Lane: Early in the quarter, the Iran conflict drove supply chain interruptions and dramatically higher feedstock and energy costs, resulting in higher prices for many products. As supply chains rebalanced during the quarter, export pricing for both EDC and caustic soda trended lower but remained above pre-conflict levels. These export price trends will offset stronger domestic caustic pricing in Q3. We expect product availability to tighten in Q4, driven by persistently higher feedstock and energy costs, as well as several planned industry shutdowns. As discussed on our Q1 earnings call, we had an unplanned outage in early May at our Freeport, Texas VCM plant. While the outage was disappointing, it was an isolated equipment issue that we've addressed. We were able to restart the plant by mid-May, but VCM will be running at reduced operating rates through Q3 while we complete final repairs.
Ken Lane: Early in the quarter, the Iran conflict drove supply chain interruptions and dramatically higher feedstock and energy costs, resulting in higher prices for many products. As supply chains rebalanced during the quarter, export pricing for both EDC and caustic soda trended lower but remained above pre-conflict levels. These export price trends will offset stronger domestic caustic pricing in Q3. We expect product availability to tighten in Q4, driven by persistently higher feedstock and energy costs, as well as several planned industry shutdowns. As discussed on our Q1 earnings call, we had an unplanned outage in early May at our Freeport, Texas VCM plant. While the outage was disappointing, it was an isolated equipment issue that we've addressed. We were able to restart the plant by mid-May, but VCM will be running at reduced operating rates through Q3 while we complete final repairs.
Speaker #3: As supply chains rebalanced during the quarter, export pricing for both EDC and caustic soda trended lower, but remained above pre-conflict levels. These export price trends will offset stronger domestic caustic pricing in the third quarter.
Speaker #3: We expect product availability to tighten in the fourth quarter, driven by persistently higher feedstock and energy costs, as well as several planned industry shutdowns.
Speaker #3: As discussed on our Q1 earnings call, we had an unplanned outage in early May at our Freeport, Texas VCM plant. While the outage was disappointing, it was an isolated equipment issue that we've addressed.
Speaker #3: We were able to restart the plant by mid-May, but VCM will be running at reduced operating rates through the third quarter while we complete final repairs.
Speaker #3: This outage resulted in a $40 million penalty to second quarter adjusted EBITDA, and we’ll have an estimated $20 million impact on the third quarter.
Ken Lane: This outage resulted in a $40 million penalty to Q2 adjusted EBITDA and will have an estimated $20 million impact on Q3. Q2 merchant chlorine sales improved seasonally, supported by stronger water treatment, refrigerant, and other derivative demands. During Q3, several planned chlorine customer shutdowns will reduce volumes, but chlorine pricing remains stable. Finally, we continue to make very good progress on our Beyond 250 structural cost savings initiatives, and we're on track to deliver on our commitments. Turning to slide six, let's review our epoxy results. During Q2, our epoxy business posted its best results in more than three years. As the Iran conflict unfolded, our epoxy team implemented price increases to offset rising raw material and transportation costs. Security of supply became paramount to customers, supporting Olin's strategy to grow our epoxy participation in both the US and Europe.
Ken Lane: This outage resulted in a $40 million penalty to Q2 adjusted EBITDA and will have an estimated $20 million impact on Q3. Q2 merchant chlorine sales improved seasonally, supported by stronger water treatment, refrigerant, and other derivative demands. During Q3, several planned chlorine customer shutdowns will reduce volumes, but chlorine pricing remains stable. Finally, we continue to make very good progress on our Beyond 250 structural cost savings initiatives, and we're on track to deliver on our commitments. Turning to slide six, let's review our epoxy results. During Q2, our epoxy business posted its best results in more than three years. As the Iran conflict unfolded, our epoxy team implemented price increases to offset rising raw material and transportation costs. Security of supply became paramount to customers, supporting Olin's strategy to grow our epoxy participation in both the US and Europe.
Speaker #3: Second quarter merchant chlorine sales improved seasonally, supported by stronger water treatment, refrigerant, and other derivative demand. During the third quarter, several planned chlorine customer shutdowns will reduce volumes, but chlorine pricing remains stable.
Speaker #3: Finally, we continue to make very good progress on our beyond 250 structural cost savings initiatives. And we're on track to deliver on our commitments.
Speaker #3: Turning to slide 6, let's review our epoxy results. During the second quarter, our epoxy business posted its best results in more than three years.
Speaker #3: As the Iran conflict unfolded, our Epoxy team implemented price increases to offset rising raw material and transportation costs. Security of supply became paramount to customers, supporting Olin's strategy to grow our Epoxy participation in both the US and Europe.
Speaker #3: During the second quarter, U.S. epoxy resin demand experienced moderate seasonal improvements, while European demand remained flat. Our epoxy cost initiatives continue to pay off.
Ken Lane: During Q2, US epoxy resin demand experienced moderate seasonal improvements, while European demand remained flat. Our epoxy cost initiatives continue to pay off. Between our new Stade, Germany supply agreements and our Guarulhos, Brazil plant closure, we've reduced epoxy structural costs by more than $50 million per year. These actions, in combination with our commercial strategy for increased participation, have returned this business to positive earnings. Now let's take a look at Winchester on slide number seven. Monthly out the door commercial ammunition sales have improved year over year as consumer demand strengthens. Winchester continues to increase prices to offset rising raw material costs, particularly copper and brass. Both of these have resulted in year-over-year improvement to adjusted EBITDA. Winchester is continuing its disciplined approach to working capital and inventory management as we see our commercial backlog grow.
Ken Lane: During Q2, US epoxy resin demand experienced moderate seasonal improvements, while European demand remained flat. Our epoxy cost initiatives continue to pay off. Between our new Stade, Germany supply agreements and our Guarulhos, Brazil plant closure, we've reduced epoxy structural costs by more than $50 million per year. These actions, in combination with our commercial strategy for increased participation, have returned this business to positive earnings. Now let's take a look at Winchester on slide number seven. Monthly out the door commercial ammunition sales have improved year-over-year as consumer demand strengthens. Winchester continues to increase prices to offset rising raw material costs, particularly copper and brass. Both of these have resulted in year-over-year improvement to adjusted EBITDA. Winchester is continuing its disciplined approach to working capital and inventory management as we see our commercial backlog grow.
Speaker #3: Between our new Stada Germany supply agreements and our Guaruja, Brazil plant closure, we've reduced epoxy structural costs by more than $50 million per year.
Speaker #3: These actions in combination with our commercial strategy for increased participation have returned this business to positive earnings. Now let's take a look at Winchester on slide number 7.
Speaker #3: Monthly out-the-door commercial ammunition sales have improved year over year, as consumer demand strengthens. Winchester continues to increase prices to offset rising raw material costs.
Speaker #3: Particularly copper and brass. Both of these have resulted in year-over-year improvement to adjusted EBITDA. Winchester is continuing its disciplined approach to working capital and inventory management as we see our commercial backlog grow.
Speaker #3: The third quarter is typically our strongest for commercial ammunition demand due to the fall hunting season, and we expect that to drive sequential earnings improvement.
Ken Lane: The Q3 is typically our strongest for commercial ammunition demand due to the fall hunting season, and we expect that to drive sequential earnings improvement. Domestic and international military ammunition and project sales continue to be strong. I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.
Ken Lane: The Q3 is typically our strongest for commercial ammunition demand due to the fall hunting season, and we expect that to drive sequential earnings improvement. Domestic and international military ammunition and project sales continue to be strong. I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.
Speaker #3: Domestic and international military ammunition and project sales continue to be strong. I'll now turn the call over to Todd for a look at our financial highlights.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Ken. I'll now walk through our cash flow liquidity position and overall financial foundation. Our top priority remains generating strong cash flow preserving liquidity and maintaining flexibility through the cycle.
Todd Slater: Thanks, Ken. I'll now walk through our cash flow liquidity position and overall financial foundation. Our top priority remains generating strong cash flow, preserving liquidity, and maintaining flexibility through the cycle. We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion of available liquidity, including the undrawn capacity under our revolving credit facility. Our debt profile remains well-structured, with no bond maturities before 2029. During H1 2026, working capital increased by $183 million, reflecting our normal seasonal build, which we expect to liquidate in H2 of the year. The increase also included $93 million of payments against previously accrued reserves related to the resolution of the legacy Shintech litigation matters. We expect to pay the remaining $100 million during H2 2026.
Todd Slater: Thanks, Ken. I'll now walk through our cash flow liquidity position and overall financial foundation. Our top priority remains generating strong cash flow, preserving liquidity, and maintaining flexibility through the cycle. We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion of available liquidity, including the undrawn capacity under our revolving credit facility. Our debt profile remains well-structured, with no bond maturities before 2029. During H1 2026, working capital increased by $183 million, reflecting our normal seasonal build, which we expect to liquidate in H2 of the year. The increase also included $93 million of payments against previously accrued reserves related to the resolution of the legacy Shintech litigation matters. We expect to pay the remaining $100 million during H2 2026.
Speaker #2: We ended the quarter with $1.2 billion of available liquidity, including the undrawn capacity under our revolving credit facility. Our debt profile remains well structured, with no bond maturities before 2029.
Speaker #2: During the first half of 2026, working capital increased by $183 million. Reflecting our normal seasonal build, which we expect to liquidate in the second half of the year.
Speaker #2: The increase also included $93 million of payments against previously accrued reserves, related to the resolution of the legacy Shintech litigation matters. We expect to pay the remaining $100 million during the second half of 2026.
Speaker #2: As a result of these litigation-related cash payments, we expect to end the year with year-over-year increase in outstanding debt. And a leverage ratio of approximately 4.5 times.
Todd Slater: As a result of these litigation-related cash payments, we expect to end the year with year-over-year increase in outstanding debt and a leverage ratio of approximately 4.5 times. As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any excess cash flow will be used to reduce our outstanding debt. Our capital allocation priorities also remain consistent and disciplined. First, we continue to target 2026 capital spending of approximately $200 million, with investments focused on the safe, reliable, and efficient operation of our assets. Second, we expect to continue our long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. Third, excluding approximately $195 million of cash payments to resolve legacy litigation matters I just discussed, we expect working capital to be essentially flat for the full year 2026. Finally, we continue to expect 2026 to be a cash-free tax year, ±$20 million.
Todd Slater: As a result of these litigation-related cash payments, we expect to end the year with year-over-year increase in outstanding debt and a leverage ratio of approximately 4.5 times. As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any excess cash flow will be used to reduce our outstanding debt. Our capital allocation priorities also remain consistent and disciplined. First, we continue to target 2026 capital spending of approximately $200 million, with investments focused on the safe, reliable, and efficient operation of our assets. Second, we expect to continue our long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. Third, excluding approximately $195 million of cash payments to resolve legacy litigation matters I just discussed, we expect working capital to be essentially flat for the full year 2026. Finally, we continue to expect 2026 to be a cash-free tax year, ±$20 million.
Speaker #2: As we further strengthen our financial resilience, any excess cash flow will be used to reduce our outstanding debt. Our capital allocation priorities also remain consistent and disciplined.
Speaker #2: First, we continue to target 2026 capital spending of approximately $200 million, with investments focused on the safe, reliable, and efficient operation of our assets.
Speaker #2: Second, we expect to continue our long history of uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments. Third, excluding approximately $195 million of cash payments to resolve legacy litigation matters I just discussed.
Speaker #2: We expect working capital to be essentially flat for the full year 2026. And finally, we continue to expect 2026 to be a cash-free tax year, plus or minus approximately $20 million.
Speaker #2: Within beyond 250, we are expanding our focus on people and process improvements and remain on track to deliver more than $100 million of incremental structural cost savings in 2026.
Todd Slater: Within Beyond 250, we are expanding our focus on people and process improvements and remain on track to deliver more than $100 million of incremental structural cost savings in 2026. In addition, based on the progress we are seeing across the organization, we are increasingly confident we will exceed our $250 million target by 2028. In summary, our teams remain focused on cash generation, cost discipline, and execution of Beyond 250. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our Value First commercial approach while maintaining disciplined capital allocation, a prudent capital structure, and resilient cash flows. With that, Ken, I'll turn the call back to you.
Todd Slater: Within Beyond 250, we are expanding our focus on people and process improvements and remain on track to deliver more than $100 million of incremental structural cost savings in 2026. In addition, based on the progress we are seeing across the organization, we are increasingly confident we will exceed our $250 million target by 2028. In summary, our teams remain focused on cash generation, cost discipline, and execution of Beyond 250. Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our Value First commercial approach while maintaining disciplined capital allocation, a prudent capital structure, and resilient cash flows. With that, Ken, I'll turn the call back to you.
Speaker #2: In addition, based on the progress we're seeing across the organization, we are increasingly confident we will exceed our $250 million target by 2028. In summary, our team's remain focused on cash generation, cost discipline, and execution of beyond 250.
Speaker #2: Our strong financial foundation enables Olin to continue executing our value-first commercial approach, while maintaining disciplined capital allocation, a prudent capital structure, and resilient cash flows.
Speaker #2: With that, Ken, I'll turn the call back to you.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Todd. I'll finish up with slide 9 and our outlook for the third quarter. We expect stronger domestic cost excedent pricing. Export volumes for both cost excedent and EDC should improve, but will largely be offset by lower export pricing.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Todd. I'll finish up with slide 9 and our outlook for Q3. We expect stronger domestic caustic soda pricing. Export volumes for both caustic soda and EDC should improve, but will largely be offset by lower export pricing. In epoxy, stable volumes and an improved mix are expected to benefit Q3 results. However, this will be more than offset by higher European FIFO costs. Winchester Q3 results are expected to improve, driven by higher commercial volumes and pricing, partially offset by higher metals costs. We'll continue to remain focused on working capital discipline. Against the backdrop of continued global uncertainty, we expect chemicals adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat in Q3. We do expect a modest earnings improvement at Winchester, although corporate costs are expected to be a sequential headwind.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Todd. I'll finish up with slide 9 and our outlook for Q3. We expect stronger domestic caustic soda pricing. Export volumes for both caustic soda and EDC should improve, but will largely be offset by lower export pricing. In epoxy, stable volumes and an improved mix are expected to benefit Q3 results. However, this will be more than offset by higher European FIFO costs. Winchester Q3 results are expected to improve, driven by higher commercial volumes and pricing, partially offset by higher metals costs. We'll continue to remain focused on working capital discipline. Against the backdrop of continued global uncertainty, we expect chemicals adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat in Q3. We do expect a modest earnings improvement at Winchester, although corporate costs are expected to be a sequential headwind.
Speaker #3: In epoxy, stable volumes and an improved mix are expected to benefit third quarter results. However, this will be more than offset by higher European FIFO costs.
Speaker #3: Winchester third quarter results are expected to improve, driven by higher commercial volumes and pricing. Partially offset by higher metals costs. We'll continue to remain focused on working capital discipline.
Speaker #3: Against a backdrop of continued global uncertainty, we expect chemicals adjusted EBITDA to be relatively flat in the third quarter. We do expect a modest earnings improvement at Winchester, although corporate costs are expected to be a sequential headwind.
Speaker #3: Overall, adjusted EBITDA should again be in the range of $160 million to $200 million. Stepping back, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for our business.
Ken Lane: Overall, adjusted EBITDA should again be in the range of $160 to $200 million. Stepping back, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for our business. Chlor Alkali continues to benefit from an attractive supply-demand outlook relative to other commodity chemical value chains, supported by recent industry capacity closures and limited new capacity additions globally. As the industry leader in Chlor Alkali, we are very well positioned to benefit from these favorable dynamics. Our Epoxy business has returned to profitability and continues to improve. At Winchester, self-help actions taken in late 2025, disciplined cost and working capital management, and a recovering commercial ammunition market continue to support improved performance. Across Olin, we're making good progress on our priorities: delivering record safety performance in 2026, streamlining work processes, creating new reliability roadmaps, and adding resources to support execution.
Ken Lane: Overall, adjusted EBITDA should again be in the range of $160 to $200 million. Stepping back, we remain confident in the long-term outlook for our business. Chlor Alkali continues to benefit from an attractive supply-demand outlook relative to other commodity chemical value chains, supported by recent industry capacity closures and limited new capacity additions globally. As the industry leader in Chlor Alkali, we are very well positioned to benefit from these favorable dynamics. Our Epoxy business has returned to profitability and continues to improve. At Winchester, self-help actions taken in late 2025, disciplined cost and working capital management, and a recovering commercial ammunition market continue to support improved performance. Across Olin, we're making good progress on our priorities: delivering record safety performance in 2026, streamlining work processes, creating new reliability roadmaps, and adding resources to support execution.
Speaker #3: More alkaline continues to benefit from an attractive supply-demand outlook relative to other commodity chemical value chains, supported by recent industry capacity closures and limited new capacity additions globally.
Speaker #3: As the industry leader in chloralkali we're very well positioned to benefit from these favorable dynamics. Our epoxy business has returned to profitability, and continues to improve.
Speaker #3: At Winchester, self-help actions taken in late 2025, disciplined cost and working capital management, and a recovering commercial ammunition market continue to support improved performance.
Speaker #3: Across OLIN, we're making good progress on our priorities. Delivering record safety performance in 2026. Streamlining work processes. Creating new reliability roadmaps and adding resources to support execution.
Speaker #3: Leveraging digital tools and AI across our plants to quickly identify inefficiencies. Reduce costs and improve asset reliability. Finally, we're reinforcing accountability by aligning our short-term incentive program with site-level safety, reliability, and cost performance targets.
Ken Lane: Leveraging digital tools and AI across our plants to quickly identify inefficiencies, reduce costs, and improve asset reliability. Finally, we're reinforcing accountability by aligning our short-term incentive program with site-level safety, reliability, and cost performance targets, further strengthening our performance-driven culture. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.
Ken Lane: Leveraging digital tools and AI across our plants to quickly identify inefficiencies, reduce costs, and improve asset reliability. Finally, we're reinforcing accountability by aligning our short-term incentive program with site-level safety, reliability, and cost performance targets, further strengthening our performance-driven culture. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.
Speaker #3: Further strengthening our performance-driven culture. Operator, we're now ready to begin Q&A.
Speaker #1: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then 1 on your touchstone phone.
Nick: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. The first question will come from Frank Mitch with Fermium Research. Please go ahead.
Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. The first question will come from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star and then 2.
Speaker #1: Please limit yourself to one question. At this time, we'll pause momentarily to assemble the roster. The first question will come from Frank Mitch with Fermium Research.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Hi, guys. Good morning. This is Iza on for Frank. My first question was around the Iran war and where would you say this has been the biggest impact within OLIN, and if the war were to drag on for a few more months, what are the implications for the company?
[Company Representative] (Fermium Research): Hi, guys. Good morning. It's Aziza on for Frank. My first question was around the Iran war, where would you say this has been the biggest impact within Olin? If the war were to drag on for a few more months, what are the implications for the company?
[Analyst] (Fermium Research): Hi, guys. Good morning. It's Aziza on for Frank. My first question was around the Iran war, where would you say this has been the biggest impact within Olin? If the war were to drag on for a few more months, what are the implications for the company?
Speaker #3: Good morning, Zita. Good to hear your voice. Well, listen, the biggest impact really we felt in the second quarter—that's when we saw prices and concern around supply disruptions really ramp up early in the quarter.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Aziza. Well, listen, the biggest impact, really, we felt in Q2, that's when we saw prices and concern around supply disruptions really ramp up early in the quarter. As we've said in the prepared comments, we saw that abate as we went through the quarter. Going forward, as markets have rebalanced, what we do expect is just globally costs have risen, for folks especially producing outside of the US. That is going to put maybe a higher floor under prices as we go forward. We recognize that there is some softness in some of the export pricing for EDC and Caustic today.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Aziza. Well, listen, the biggest impact, really, we felt in Q2, that's when we saw prices and concern around supply disruptions really ramp up early in the quarter. As we've said in the prepared comments, we saw that abate as we went through the quarter. Going forward, as markets have rebalanced, what we do expect is just globally costs have risen, for folks especially producing outside of the US. That is going to put maybe a higher floor under prices as we go forward. We recognize that there is some softness in some of the export pricing for EDC and Caustic today.
Speaker #3: But as we said in the prepared comments, we saw that abate as we went through the quarter. Going forward, as markets have rebalanced, what we do expect is just, globally, costs have risen.
Speaker #3: For folks, especially producing outside of the US, that is going to put maybe a higher floor under prices as we go forward. We recognize that there is some softness in some of the export pricing for EDC and cost today.
Speaker #3: A lot of that is just digesting the volume that was produced when everybody saw that peak in pricing all of a sudden, even the producers that were not making any money, some that were even cash negative before prices ran up, saw an opportunity to be able to produce and move some product.
Ken Lane: A lot of that is just digesting the volume that was produced when everybody saw that peak in pricing, all of a sudden, even the producers that were not making any money, some that were even cash negative before prices ran up, saw an opportunity to be able to produce and move some product. That's going to be digested here in Q3, and then as I said, I think things will start to tighten up more in Q4. There's a lot of capacity that's going to be down. Demand continues to be stable. We're not seeing any erosion in demand. I think we saw the run-up in Q2. We're going to see things kind of normalize in Q3 at a higher cost level and that should benefit us in Q4.
Ken Lane: A lot of that is just digesting the volume that was produced when everybody saw that peak in pricing, all of a sudden, even the producers that were not making any money, some that were even cash negative before prices ran up, saw an opportunity to be able to produce and move some product. That's going to be digested here in Q3, and then as I said, I think things will start to tighten up more in Q4. There's a lot of capacity that's going to be down. Demand continues to be stable. We're not seeing any erosion in demand. I think we saw the run-up in Q2. We're going to see things kind of normalize in Q3 at a higher cost level and that should benefit us in Q4.
Speaker #3: That's going to be digested here in the third quarter, and then as I said, I think things will start to tighten up more in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #3: There's a lot of capacity that's going to be down. Demand continues to be stable. We're not seeing any erosion in demand. So I think we saw the run-up in Q2.
Speaker #3: We're going to see things kind of normalize in Q3 at a higher cost level. And that should benefit us in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Morning, Ken and Todd. Wanted to sort of revisit the same question a little differently. Trying to get a clearer view on narrative and supply-demand dynamics.
Hassan Ahmed: Morning, Ken and Todd. Wanted to sort of revisit the same question a little differently. Trying to get a clearer view on near-term supply-demand dynamics for chlorovinyls. First of all, would love to hear your views about the return of capacity across the Middle East, as and when the conflict does end. Above and beyond that, obviously we've seen a re-escalation in the price of natural gas in Europe, so would love to hear your views around rationalization out there. On the demand side of it, across a variety of chemical chains, it seems that particularly in Asia, we saw a fair amount of inventory destocking. Could we potentially, over the next couple of quarters, expect on the demand side of things, a restocking cycle as well?
Hassan Ahmed: Morning, Ken and Todd. Wanted to sort of revisit the same question a little differently. Trying to get a clearer view on near-term supply-demand dynamics for chlorovinyls. First of all, would love to hear your views about the return of capacity across the Middle East, as and when the conflict does end. Above and beyond that, obviously we've seen a re-escalation in the price of natural gas in Europe, so would love to hear your views around rationalization out there. On the demand side of it, across a variety of chemical chains, it seems that particularly in Asia, we saw a fair amount of inventory destocking. Could we potentially, over the next couple of quarters, expect on the demand side of things, a restocking cycle as well?
Speaker #5: For chlorovinals, first of all, would love to hear your views about the return of capacity across the Middle East as in when the conflict does end.
Speaker #5: And then, above and beyond that, obviously, we've seen a re-escalation in the price of natural gas in Europe. So, I would love to hear your views around rationalization out there.
Speaker #5: And then on the demand side of it, across a variety of chemical chains, it seems that particularly in Asia, we saw a fair amount of inventory destocking.
Speaker #5: So, could we potentially, over the next couple of quarters, expect, on the demand side of things, a restocking cycle as well?
Speaker #3: Good morning, Hassan. While that's a lot of questions you've put in there, I tried to take some notes, and I will try to get to all of them.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Hassan. Wow, that's a lot of questions you put in there. I tried to take some notes, and I will try to get to all of them. Listen, again, in terms of short-term supply-demand implications, we saw a run-up in Q2. Looking backwards, we did see a run-up in Chlor Alkali and PVC operating rates in Q2. Yes, you did see a lot of the Asian ethylene-based producers cut back. Carbide ramped up, even Europe ramped up and had a spike in operating rates in Q2. We have seen those reverse. Like I said, we had this lump in Q2 of production. Now people have cut back on operating rates, and that's going to start to filter through into the market as we go through Q3 and Q4.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Hassan. Wow, that's a lot of questions you put in there. I tried to take some notes, and I will try to get to all of them. Listen, again, in terms of short-term supply-demand implications, we saw a run-up in Q2. Looking backwards, we did see a run-up in Chlor Alkali and PVC operating rates in Q2. Yes, you did see a lot of the Asian ethylene-based producers cut back. Carbide ramped up, even Europe ramped up and had a spike in operating rates in Q2. We have seen those reverse. Like I said, we had this lump in Q2 of production. Now people have cut back on operating rates, and that's going to start to filter through into the market as we go through Q3 and Q4.
Speaker #3: So listen, again, in terms of short-term, supply-demand implications we saw a run-up in Q2. So looking backwards, we did see a run-up in chloralkali and PVC operating rates in Q2.
Speaker #3: Yes, you did see a lot of the Asian ethylene-based producers cut back. Carbide ramped up. Even Europe ramped up and had a spike in operating rates in Q2.
Speaker #3: But we have seen those reverse. So like I said, there's a bit of a we had this lump in Q2 of production. Now people have cut back on operating rates and that's going to start to filter through into the market as we go through the third and the fourth quarter.
Speaker #3: I'm not as much worried about what's happening in terms of the return of capacity in the Middle East. That is much less of a concern for me.
Ken Lane: I'm not as much worried about what's happening in terms of the return of capacity in the Middle East. That is much less of a concern for me. I think the reality of it is, it is hard to put this genie back in the bottle, and I'm not sure exactly when things are going to settle down there. That's less of a concern. I think the thing that we're going to watch is going to continue to be around what's happening primarily in China, and what are they doing with their assets. We have seen operating rates in China already reduce in Q3. Again, it takes a little bit of time for that to filter through into the supply-demand balances, but it will.
Ken Lane: I'm not as much worried about what's happening in terms of the return of capacity in the Middle East. That is much less of a concern for me. I think the reality of it is, it is hard to put this genie back in the bottle, and I'm not sure exactly when things are going to settle down there. That's less of a concern. I think the thing that we're going to watch is going to continue to be around what's happening primarily in China, and what are they doing with their assets. We have seen operating rates in China already reduce in Q3. Again, it takes a little bit of time for that to filter through into the supply-demand balances, but it will.
Speaker #3: I think the reality of it is, it is hard to put this genie back in the bottle, and I'm not sure exactly when things are going to settle down there.
Speaker #3: So that's less of a concern. I think the thing that we're going to watch is going to continue to be around what's happening, primarily in China.
Speaker #3: And what are they doing with their assets? We have seen operating rates in China already reduce in the third quarter. And again, it takes a little bit of time for that to filter through into the supply-demand balances, but it will.
Speaker #3: And that, combined with some outages that we see—particularly coming up here in North America—should be constructive for supply and demand as we finish out the year.
Ken Lane: That, combined with some outages that we see particularly coming up here in North America, should be constructive for supply-demand as we finish out the year. Going back to Europe. Europe, again, we did see a run-up in operating rates there. You saw that come back as prices began to normalize and the fear of not being able to get product sort of waned, I would say. Your final point there around destocking is one that's going to be really important to watch, because I do think the buying pattern that we have seen from customers is initially, yes, they were trying to buy to be ahead of any disruptions. Now I think what you see is the behavior is they're going to consume their inventory, because they're hoping that prices or costs will come down in the future.
Ken Lane: That, combined with some outages that we see particularly coming up here in North America, should be constructive for supply-demand as we finish out the year. Going back to Europe. Europe, again, we did see a run-up in operating rates there. You saw that come back as prices began to normalize and the fear of not being able to get product sort of waned, I would say. Your final point there around destocking is one that's going to be really important to watch, because I do think the buying pattern that we have seen from customers is initially, yes, they were trying to buy to be ahead of any disruptions. Now I think what you see is the behavior is they're going to consume their inventory, because they're hoping that prices or costs will come down in the future.
Speaker #3: Going back to Europe, again, we did see a run-up in operating rates there, but you saw that come back as prices began to normalize and the fear of not being able to get product sort of waned, I would say.
Speaker #3: And your final point there around destocking is one that's going to be really important to watch. Because I do think the buying pattern that we have seen from customers is initially, yes, they were trying to buy to be ahead of any disruptions.
Speaker #3: But now I think what you see is the behavior is they're going to consume their inventory. Because they're hoping that prices or costs will come down in the future.
Speaker #3: So yes, that is certainly a situation that could change here that all of a sudden people do need to restock and demand the apparent demand may improve.
Ken Lane: Yes, that is certainly a situation that could change here, that all of a sudden people do need to restock, and the apparent demand may improve. I just want to reiterate, underlying housing, underlying automotive demand is still stable, but it is not recovering yet. All of these dynamics are very volatile. They're hard to predict. Frankly, that's why we gave a pretty wide range for the Q3 outlook that we did.
Ken Lane: Yes, that is certainly a situation that could change here, that all of a sudden people do need to restock, and the apparent demand may improve. I just want to reiterate, underlying housing, underlying automotive demand is still stable, but it is not recovering yet. All of these dynamics are very volatile. They're hard to predict. Frankly, that's why we gave a pretty wide range for the Q3 outlook that we did.
Speaker #3: But I just want to reiterate, underlying housing, underlying automotive demand is still it's stable. But it is not recovering yet. So all of these dynamics are very volatile.
Speaker #3: They're hard to predict. And frankly, that's why we gave a pretty wide range for the third quarter outlook that we did.
Nick: The next question will come from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Gabe Hajed with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Speaker #6: Good morning, Ken. Steve, Todd. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about kind of the four and a half times leverage target at the end of the year.
Gabe Hajde: Good morning, Ken. Steve, Todd, thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about kind of the 4.5x leverage target at the end of the year. You kind of given us some building blocks, Todd, I think about the normal, when I look at the model, $200 million, give or take, on working capital release, and $100 million payment. I'm kind of getting net debt maybe at $2,750 by the end of the year, which would kind of imply a full-year EBITDA of $610. Then I'm trying to kind of juxtapose that, I guess, with some comments that you're making, Ken, about improved dynamics in the Q4 for the Chlor Alkali business. Thank you.
Gabe Hajde: Good morning, Ken. Steve, Todd, thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about kind of the 4.5x leverage target at the end of the year. You kind of given us some building blocks, Todd, I think about the normal, when I look at the model, $200 million, give or take, on working capital release, and $100 million payment. I'm kind of getting net debt maybe at $2,750 by the end of the year, which would kind of imply a full-year EBITDA of $610. Then I'm trying to kind of juxtapose that, I guess, with some comments that you're making, Ken, about improved dynamics in the Q4 for the Chlor Alkali business. Thank you.
Speaker #6: And you kind of given us some building blocks, Todd. I think about the normal when I look at the model, 200 million dollars, give or take, on working capital release.
Speaker #6: And $100 million payment. So I'm kind of getting net debt maybe at $2.75 billion by the end of the year, which would kind of imply a full year EBITDA of $610 million.
Speaker #6: And then I'm trying to kind of juxtapose that, I guess, with some comments that you're making, Ken, about improved dynamics in the fourth quarter for the chloroalkali business.
Speaker #6: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Good morning, Gabe. Thanks for joining. I'll start, then I'll let Todd add to it. First, I just want to emphasize that as we have been saying, over the course of the second quarter and as we talked about our merger with Huntsman, even for OLIN deleveraging is going to be a priority.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Gabe. Thanks for joining. I'll start, then I'll let Todd add to it. First, I just want to emphasize that as we have been saying over the course of the Q2, and as we talked about our merger with Huntsman, even for Olin, deleveraging is going to be a priority. That is something that we'll be very focused on. The teams here are extremely focused on cash generation and reducing working capital and managing that very carefully. I think you've got to realize that there is a lot of volatility in the world around things that are going on with the geopolitical environment that we're in. That is not going to change anytime soon, as I just mentioned. We saw the run-up in Q2, which was very beneficial for us. You saw that in our results.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Gabe. Thanks for joining. I'll start, then I'll let Todd add to it. First, I just want to emphasize that as we have been saying over the course of the Q2, and as we talked about our merger with Huntsman, even for Olin, deleveraging is going to be a priority. That is something that we'll be very focused on. The teams here are extremely focused on cash generation and reducing working capital and managing that very carefully. I think you've got to realize that there is a lot of volatility in the world around things that are going on with the geopolitical environment that we're in. That is not going to change anytime soon, as I just mentioned. We saw the run-up in Q2, which was very beneficial for us. You saw that in our results.
Speaker #3: And that is something that will be very focused on the teams here are extremely focused on cash generation and reducing working capital and managing that very carefully.
Speaker #3: I think you've got to realize that there is a lot of volatility in the world around things that are going on with the geopolitical environment, and that is not going to change.
Speaker #3: Anytime soon, as I just mentioned. So we saw the run-up in Q2, which was very beneficial for us. You saw that in our results.
Speaker #3: We're going to see a little bit of give back here in the third quarter as prices, especially in the export markets, reflect some of the pullback in terms of the cost and the results of customers, again, maybe trying to buy ahead a little bit of a lot of uncertainty.
Ken Lane: We're going to see a little bit of giveback here in the Q3 as prices, especially in the export markets, reflect some of the pullback in terms of the costs and the results of customers, again, maybe trying to buy ahead a little bit of a lot of uncertainty. I think people are getting more comfortable living in an uncertain world, for what that's worth. What won't change is that there is going to be outages that are occurring. If you think back to the end of last year, we were already in an environment where industry rationalization of capacity, relatively good demand. Yes, it's not growing right now, but it is stable. In the face of all of that, we were seeing things begin to improve already.
Ken Lane: We're going to see a little bit of giveback here in the Q3 as prices, especially in the export markets, reflect some of the pullback in terms of the costs and the results of customers, again, maybe trying to buy ahead a little bit of a lot of uncertainty. I think people are getting more comfortable living in an uncertain world, for what that's worth. What won't change is that there is going to be outages that are occurring. If you think back to the end of last year, we were already in an environment where industry rationalization of capacity, relatively good demand. Yes, it's not growing right now, but it is stable. In the face of all of that, we were seeing things begin to improve already.
Speaker #3: I think people are getting more comfortable living in an uncertain world. But what that's worth. But what won't change is that there is going to be outages that are occurring.
Speaker #3: And if you think back to the end of last year, we were already in an environment where industry rationalization of capacity, relatively good demand—yes, it's not growing right now, but it is stable.
Speaker #3: So, in the face of all of that, we were seeing things begin to improve already. And I think that's what I'm saying—you’re going to get back to a more stable environment that reflects what we saw kind of late Q1 and even in the latter part of Q2.
Ken Lane: I think that's what I'm saying is you're going to get back to a more stable environment that reflects what we saw kind of late Q1, and even in the latter part of Q2. That spike that we saw in Q2 is going to be an anomaly here as things try to find a more balanced way forward in a very uncertain world. Todd, I'll let you talk to the balance sheet.
Ken Lane: I think that's what I'm saying is you're going to get back to a more stable environment that reflects what we saw kind of late Q1, and even in the latter part of Q2. That spike that we saw in Q2 is going to be an anomaly here as things try to find a more balanced way forward in a very uncertain world. Todd, I'll let you talk to the balance sheet.
Speaker #3: But that spike that we saw in Q2 is going to be an anomaly here, as things try to find a more balanced way forward in a very uncertain world.
Speaker #3: But Todd, I'll let you talk to the balance sheet.
Speaker #6: Yeah, no problem. Gabe, thanks for the question. As we we obviously do not provide annual EBITDA outlook, but we do expect net debt to increase year over year, from year-end 25 to year-end 26.
Todd Slater: Yeah. No problem. Gabe, thanks for the question. As we obviously do not provide annual EBITDA outlook, but we do expect net debt to increase year-over-year from year-end 2025 to year-end 2026. As I said, driven by the roughly $195 million of legacy litigation payments that we're going to be obligated to make year-end 2026. We would expect to end the year in that 4.5 times range on leverage. I just want to remind everyone on the call about cash flow. When you think about our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, here in the end of June is roughly $570 million. When you look at that number, Olin generated roughly $100 million of levered free cash flow in the last trailing 4 quarters, even at those levels of adjusted EBITDA. That cash flow has really been utilized to repay legacy litigation matters.
Todd Slater: Yeah. No problem. Gabe, thanks for the question. As we obviously do not provide annual EBITDA outlook, but we do expect net debt to increase year-over-year from year-end 2025 to year-end 2026. As I said, driven by the roughly $195 million of legacy litigation payments that we're going to be obligated to make year-end 2026. We would expect to end the year in that 4.5 times range on leverage. I just want to remind everyone on the call about cash flow. When you think about our trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA, here in the end of June is roughly $570 million. When you look at that number, Olin generated roughly $100 million of levered free cash flow in the last trailing 4 quarters, even at those levels of adjusted EBITDA. That cash flow has really been utilized to repay legacy litigation matters.
Speaker #6: As I said, driven by the roughly 195 million dollars of legacy litigation payments that were going to be obligated to make during 2026. And so we would expect end of year in that four and a half times range on leverage.
Speaker #6: I just want to remind everyone on the call, about cash flow. When you think about our trailing 12 month adjusted EBITDA, here in the end of June is roughly 570.
Speaker #6: And when you look at that number, Olin generated roughly $100 million of levered free cash flow in the last trailing four quarters, even at those levels of adjusted EBITDA.
Speaker #6: That cash flow has really been utilized to repay legacy litigation matters. And when I talk about levered free cash flow, that's after paying the dividend, funding all of our capital spending, paying all our interest—covering all our capital allocation priorities.
Todd Slater: When I talk about levered free cash flow, that's after paying the dividend, that's funding all of our capital spending, paying all our interest, all our capital allocation priorities. Olin does generate cash flow at very low levels of earnings, which is, I think, a distinction among many of our commodity chemical peers.
Todd Slater: When I talk about levered free cash flow, that's after paying the dividend, that's funding all of our capital spending, paying all our interest, all our capital allocation priorities. Olin does generate cash flow at very low levels of earnings, which is, I think, a distinction among many of our commodity chemical peers.
Speaker #6: So OLIN does generate cash flow at very low levels of earnings. Which is, I think, a distinction among many of our commodity chemical peers.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Josh Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.
Speaker #7: Good morning. It's Chris Perellon for Josh. Ken, for the CAV business, with the VCM fix in place, do you expect to get that 20 million back in the fourth quarter?
Chris Perrella: Good morning. It's Chris Perrella for Josh Spector. Ken, for the CAV business, with the VCM fix in place, do you expect to get that $20 million back in Q4? For Epoxy, how large is that FIFO headwind in Q3? Is pricing elevated enough to offset increasing raw materials, or do you need another round to kind of keep things where they are?
Chris Perrella: Good morning. It's Chris Perrella for Josh Spector. Ken, for the CAV business, with the VCM fix in place, do you expect to get that $20 million back in Q4? For Epoxy, how large is that FIFO headwind in Q3? Is pricing elevated enough to offset increasing raw materials, or do you need another round to kind of keep things where they are?
Speaker #7: And then for epoxy, do you know how large that FIFO headwind is in the third quarter? And is pricing elevated enough to offset increasing raw materials?
Speaker #7: Or do you need another round to kind of keep things where they are?
Speaker #3: Hi, good morning, Chris. Yes. So listen, as we get the VCM asset back to full capacity at the end of the quarter here, we do expect to see recovery of that in the fourth quarter.
Ken Lane: Hi, good morning, Chris. Yeah, listen, as we get the VCM asset back to full capacity at the end of the quarter here, we do expect to see recovery of that in Q4. All that is going well at this point. Todd, do you want to take the second part of that question?
Ken Lane: Hi, good morning, Chris. Yeah, listen, as we get the VCM asset back to full capacity at the end of the quarter here, we do expect to see recovery of that in Q4. All that is going well at this point. Todd, do you want to take the second part of that question?
Speaker #3: All that is going well at this point. So Todd, you want to take the second part of that question?
Speaker #6: Yeah, sure. No problem. Epoxy has announced price increases here in the third quarter, commencing with increased hydrocarbon and raw material costs that they've seen most recently by the most recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Todd Slater: Yeah, sure. No problem. Epoxy has announced price increases here in Q3, commensurate with increased hydrocarbon and raw material costs that they've seen most recently by the most recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. We would expect it net to be a headwind on FIFO between Q2 and Q3. We clearly expect Epoxy to continue to generate positive EBITDA for Q3.
Todd Slater: Yeah, sure. No problem. Epoxy has announced price increases here in Q3, commensurate with increased hydrocarbon and raw material costs that they've seen most recently by the most recent escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. We would expect it net to be a headwind on FIFO between Q2 and Q3. We clearly expect Epoxy to continue to generate positive EBITDA for Q3.
Speaker #6: And we would expect it not to be a headwind on FIFO between Q2 and Q3. But we clearly expect Epoxy to continue to generate positive EBITDA for the third quarter.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Matthew Deo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Matthew DeYoe with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Speaker #7: Good morning, guys. This is Hakeem Safwan for Matthew Deo. You guys mentioned that U.S. epoxy resin demand experienced seasonal improvement. What was the main driver, and do you expect it to continue into Q3?
Hakeem Sealfon: Good morning, guys. This is Hakeem Sealfon for Matthew DeYoe. You guys mentioned that US Epoxy resin demand experienced seasonal improvement. What was the main driver? Do you expect it to continue into Q3? In Europe, what needs to happen for demand to improve? Is it just more construction and industrial demand? Thank you.
Hakim Sanfo: Good morning, guys. This is Hakeem Sealfon for Matthew DeYoe. You guys mentioned that US Epoxy resin demand experienced seasonal improvement. What was the main driver? Do you expect it to continue into Q3? In Europe, what needs to happen for demand to improve? Is it just more construction and industrial demand? Thank you.
Speaker #7: And then in Europe, what needs to happen for demand to improve? Is it just more construction and industrial demand? Thank you.
Speaker #3: Hi, Hakeem. Good morning. Yeah, listen, we did see some, and I would say 'moderate' was purposeful because we didn't see the normal level of seasonal improvement, even in the US.
Ken Lane: Hi, Hakeem. Good morning. Yeah, listen, we did see some, and I would say moderate was purposeful, because we didn't see the normal level of seasonal improvement even in the US. You still do have a construction season in the US that drives things like coatings and that sort of thing. In Europe, we have not seen that improvement. We've seen really a flattish market in Q2, and normally you would see some seasonal improvement. Yes, you're going to need to see some improvement in housing and industrial demand in Europe before you see that, I think you're going to continue to see headwinds there because you've got higher energy costs that are now starting to impact not just the cost of our production, but the cost of everyone else that are producing things in Europe.
Ken Lane: Hi, Hakeem. Good morning. Yeah, listen, we did see some, and I would say moderate was purposeful, because we didn't see the normal level of seasonal improvement even in the US. You still do have a construction season in the US that drives things like coatings and that sort of thing. In Europe, we have not seen that improvement. We've seen really a flattish market in Q2, and normally you would see some seasonal improvement. Yes, you're going to need to see some improvement in housing and industrial demand in Europe before you see that, I think you're going to continue to see headwinds there because you've got higher energy costs that are now starting to impact not just the cost of our production, but the cost of everyone else that are producing things in Europe.
Speaker #3: But you still do have a construction season in the U.S. that drives things like coatings and that sort of thing. In Europe, we have not seen that improvement.
Speaker #3: We've seen really a flattish market in Q2. And normally, you would see some seasonal improvement. Yes, you're going to need to see some improvement in housing and industrial demand in Europe before you see that.
Speaker #3: But I think you're going to continue to see headwinds there, because you've got higher energy costs that are now starting to impact not just the cost of our production, but the cost for everyone else that is producing things in Europe.
Speaker #3: And I don't see anything in the short term that is going to sort that out. Their policies in Europe continue to be ones that are going to constrain economic growth and expansion.
Ken Lane: I don't see anything in the short term that is going to sort that out. Their policies in Europe continue to be ones that are going to constrain economic growth and expansion. The things that we are doing, like reducing our cost structure, is going to continue to be extremely important. We're not counting on the market to help us in Europe anytime soon.
Ken Lane: I don't see anything in the short term that is going to sort that out. Their policies in Europe continue to be ones that are going to constrain economic growth and expansion. The things that we are doing, like reducing our cost structure, is going to continue to be extremely important. We're not counting on the market to help us in Europe anytime soon.
Speaker #3: And so, the things that we are doing, like reducing our cost structure, are going to continue to be extremely important. We're not counting on the market to help us in Europe anytime soon.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Arun Vithwanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Speaker #5: Hi, this is Adam on for Arun. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Have you guys broken out how much the FIFO benefit was that you called out for epoxy?
Arun Viswanathan: Hi, this is Arun. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Have you guys broken out how much the FIFO benefit was that you called out for Epoxy? I know it's improving, but given that kind of reversal of that benefit next quarter, do you expect overall segment earnings to improve, or should they kind of be more in line with where they were this quarter?
Arun Viswanathan: Hi, this is Arun. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Have you guys broken out how much the FIFO benefit was that you called out for Epoxy? I know it's improving, but given that kind of reversal of that benefit next quarter, do you expect overall segment earnings to improve, or should they kind of be more in line with where they were this quarter?
Speaker #5: I know it's improving, but given that kind of reversal of that benefit next quarter, do you expect overall segment earnings to improve, or should they be more in line with where they were this quarter?
Speaker #6: Yep. Yeah, great. Thanks. I appreciate the question. We, as maybe I'll start with the second part, is we think about chemicals earnings, we would expect chemicals earnings to be sequentially similar between Q3 and Q2.
Todd Slater: Yeah, great. Thanks. I appreciate the question. Maybe I'll start with the second part. As we think about chemicals earnings, we would expect chemicals earnings to be sequentially similar between Q3 and Q2. We would expect Epoxy to be slightly lower in Q3 compared to Q2, with Chlor Alkali better. As we think about that, Epoxy being slightly lower will be driven by the lower benefit from FIFO, and in effect, the higher raw material costs running through the Epoxy P&L. We've not quantified a specific number associated with that, but that's how you should think about sequentially Q3 versus Q2.
Todd Slater: Yeah, great. Thanks. I appreciate the question. Maybe I'll start with the second part. As we think about chemicals earnings, we would expect chemicals earnings to be sequentially similar between Q3 and Q2. We would expect Epoxy to be slightly lower in Q3 compared to Q2, with Chlor Alkali better. As we think about that, Epoxy being slightly lower will be driven by the lower benefit from FIFO, and in effect, the higher raw material costs running through the Epoxy P&L. We've not quantified a specific number associated with that, but that's how you should think about sequentially Q3 versus Q2.
Speaker #6: We would expect epoxy to be slightly lower in the third quarter compared to Q2 with chlorocolide better. Because obviously, the so as we think about that, epoxy being slightly lower will be driven by a lower the lower benefit from FIFO.
Speaker #6: And, in effect, a higher raw material cost is running through the epoxy P&L. We've not quantified a specific number associated with that, but that's how you should think about sequentially, Q3 versus Q2.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH&Co. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Matthew Blair with TPH. Please go ahead.
Speaker #7: Thanks, and good morning. Slide 15 shows that chlorine prices fell in Q2, even though most of the chlorine derivatives moved up in price—things like PVC and EDC. I think you also mentioned that your merchant chlorine sales were pretty strong in Q2.
Matthew Blair: Thanks, good morning. Slide 15 shows that chlorine prices fell in Q2, even though most of the chlorine derivatives moved up in price, things like PVC and EDC. I think you also mentioned that your merchant chlorine sales were pretty strong in Q2. Could you just help us understand this dynamic and what caused chlorine to come down? Was it, I guess, mostly a supply-driven response? Finally, I just wanted to confirm, I think you said you expect chlorine prices to be relatively stable, relatively flat in Q3. Thank you.
Matthew Blair: Thanks, good morning. Slide 15 shows that chlorine prices fell in Q2, even though most of the chlorine derivatives moved up in price, things like PVC and EDC. I think you also mentioned that your merchant chlorine sales were pretty strong in Q2. Could you just help us understand this dynamic and what caused chlorine to come down? Was it, I guess, mostly a supply-driven response? Finally, I just wanted to confirm, I think you said you expect chlorine prices to be relatively stable, relatively flat in Q3. Thank you.
Speaker #7: So could you just help us understand this dynamic and what caused chlorine to come down? Was it, I guess, mostly a supply-driven response? And then finally, I just wanted to confirm, I think you said you expect chlorine prices to be relatively stable, relatively flat in the third quarter.
Speaker #7: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Good morning, Matthew. Yes, you're correct. We do expect that to be the case. And you realize that for the chlorine pricing, you're talking about very small movements in an illiquid market.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Matthew. Yes, you're correct. We do expect that to be the case. You realize that for the chlorine pricing, you're talking about very small movements on an illiquid market. It is frankly not very material to look just at the chlorine price by itself. That's why we published that PCI. It's more important to look at what the ECU with the derivatives is doing across the portfolio. I'll just be honest with you, the chlorine price by itself is not something to look at and pay a whole lot of attention to. It is just a reflection of what you see printed in the publications, which don't have a lot of transparency with them. Going forward, we expect to see that stable.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Matthew. Yes, you're correct. We do expect that to be the case. You realize that for the chlorine pricing, you're talking about very small movements on an illiquid market. It is frankly not very material to look just at the chlorine price by itself. That's why we published that PCI. It's more important to look at what the ECU with the derivatives is doing across the portfolio. I'll just be honest with you, the chlorine price by itself is not something to look at and pay a whole lot of attention to. It is just a reflection of what you see printed in the publications, which don't have a lot of transparency with them. Going forward, we expect to see that stable.
Speaker #3: So it is frankly not very material to look just at the chlorine price by itself. That's why we published that PCI. It's more important to look at what the ECU with the derivatives is doing across the portfolio.
Speaker #3: I'll just be honest with you, the chlorine price by itself is not something to look at. And pay a whole lot of attention to.
Speaker #3: It is just a reflection of what you see printed in the publications, which have got a lot of, I would say, don't have a lot of transparency with them.
Speaker #3: So but going forward, we expect to see that stable.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from John Roberts with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Speaker #8: Hi, good morning. This is Saurabh Dear on for John Roberts. Thanks for taking my question. I think just want to start with the Winchester.
Saurabh Dhir: Hi, good morning. This is Saurabh Dhir on for John Roberts. Thanks for taking my question. I think just want to start with the Winchester. You said there's less import competition on the commercial side. Is that related to the wars outside the US or metal costs, or is something else that is reducing the competition?
Saurabh Dhir: Hi, good morning. This is Saurabh Dhir on for John Roberts. Thanks for taking my question. I think just want to start with the Winchester. You said there's less import competition on the commercial side. Is that related to the wars outside the US or metal costs, or is something else that is reducing the competition?
Speaker #8: You said there's less input competition on the commercial side. Is that related to the wars outside the US? Or metal costs? Or is something else that is reducing the competition?
Speaker #3: Thanks for your question. Good morning. Yeah, so the lower imports are related to tariffs. If you look at the tariffs that have been placed on imported ammunition, they've fluctuated a little bit, but it's now 20%.
Ken Lane: Thanks for your question. Good morning. The lower imports are related to tariffs. If you look at the tariffs that have been placed on imported ammunition, it has fluctuated a little bit, but it's now 20%. In some cases, a little bit higher than that. We continue to see that being a tailwind for the commercial business for Winchester. We have faced a lot of headwinds related to the tariffs around copper and brass. We've been having to fight that with our price increases. It's now good to see that the imports are getting tariffs that are going to help give us a little bit of support here.
Ken Lane: Thanks for your question. Good morning. The lower imports are related to tariffs. If you look at the tariffs that have been placed on imported ammunition, it has fluctuated a little bit, but it's now 20%. In some cases, a little bit higher than that. We continue to see that being a tailwind for the commercial business for Winchester. We have faced a lot of headwinds related to the tariffs around copper and brass. We've been having to fight that with our price increases. It's now good to see that the imports are getting tariffs that are going to help give us a little bit of support here.
Speaker #3: In some cases, a little bit higher than that. So, we continue to see that being a tailwind for the commercial business for Winchester. We have faced a lot of headwinds related to the tariffs around copper and brass.
Speaker #3: And so we've been having to fight that with our price increases. But it's now good to see that the imports are getting tariffs that are going to help give us a little bit of support here.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Pete Osterland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Nick: The next question will come from Peter Osterland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Peter Osterland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker #9: Hi, this is Alec on for Pete. Going forward, what have you guys achieved so far regarding the 30 million of cost outs in Winchester?
Alec: Hi, this is Alec on for Pete. Going forward, what have you guys achieved so far regarding the $30 million of cost outs in Winchester, and what remaining buckets are you targeting? If military and commercial are improving, does the cost outlook change?
[Analyst] (Truist Securities): Hi, this is Alec on for Pete. Going forward, what have you guys achieved so far regarding the $30 million of cost outs in Winchester, and what remaining buckets are you targeting? If military and commercial are improving, does the cost outlook change?
Speaker #9: And what remaining buckets are you targeting? If military and commercial are improving, does the cost outlook change?
Speaker #3: Good morning, Alec. We are doing very well in Winchester with our cost-outs. We've already recognized a pretty significant part of that $30 million that we've committed to through efficiency improvements.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Alec. We are doing very well in Winchester with our cost outs. We've already recognized a pretty significant part of that $30 million that we've committed to through efficiency improvements. You heard us talk about in Q4 of last year, we were doing things to rightsize our shifts and make sure that we were operating as efficiently as we could at all of our sites. We've made a lot of very good progress there. We've also just kicked off here in Q3 our Beyond 250 efforts, where we're bringing in some outside expertise to help us further improve the efficiencies, particularly at the Lake City facility in Missouri. We're confident in the $30 million that we have out there.
Ken Lane: Good morning, Alec. We are doing very well in Winchester with our cost outs. We've already recognized a pretty significant part of that $30 million that we've committed to through efficiency improvements. You heard us talk about in Q4 of last year, we were doing things to rightsize our shifts and make sure that we were operating as efficiently as we could at all of our sites. We've made a lot of very good progress there. We've also just kicked off here in Q3 our Beyond 250 efforts, where we're bringing in some outside expertise to help us further improve the efficiencies, particularly at the Lake City facility in Missouri. We're confident in the $30 million that we have out there.
Speaker #3: You heard us talk about in the fourth quarter of last year, we were doing things to rightsize our shifts and make sure that we were make sure that we were operating as efficiently as we could at all of our sites.
Speaker #3: And we've made a lot of very good progress there. We've also just kicked off here in the third quarter our Beyond 250 efforts, where we're bringing in some outside expertise to help us further improve the efficiencies, particularly at the Lake City facility in Missouri.
Speaker #3: And we're confident in the 30 million dollars that we have out there. In fact, I would even say that for Winchester, we're likely to exceed that number once we get a little bit further down the road with assessing where we're at in Lake City.
Ken Lane: In fact, I would even say that for Winchester, we're likely to exceed that number once we get a little bit further down the road with assessing where we're at in Lake City.
Ken Lane: In fact, I would even say that for Winchester, we're likely to exceed that number once we get a little bit further down the road with assessing where we're at in Lake City.
Nick: The next question will come from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Operator: The next question will come from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Speaker #1: The next question will come from Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Roger Spitz: Thanks very much. The Shintech's $100 million payment, is that on that slide 14 or is that addition? I just wasn't clear on that.
Roger Spitz: Thanks very much. The Shintech's $100 million payment, is that on that slide 14 or is that addition? I just wasn't clear on that.
Speaker #10: Hi. Thanks very much. The Shintech 100 million payment, is that on that slide 14? Or is that addition? I just wasn't clear on that.
Speaker #3: Good morning, Roger. Todd, you want to take that?
Ken Lane: Good morning, Roger. Todd, you want to take that?
Ken Lane: Good morning, Roger. Todd, you want to take that?
Speaker #11: Yeah. Roger, the $100 million payment on slide 14—we have—the $100 million isn't on slide 14. Slide 14 is your full-year modeling assumptions.
Todd Slater: Yeah. Roger, the $100 million payment on slide 14, we have the $100 million isn't on slide 14. Slide 14 is your full year modeling assumptions. However, in our outlook expectations for net debt to increase for the full year over year, that does include a $100 million payment in the back half of 2026.
Todd Slater: Yeah. Roger, the $100 million payment on slide 14, we have the $100 million isn't on slide 14. Slide 14 is your full year modeling assumptions. However, in our outlook expectations for net debt to increase for the full year-over-year, that does include a $100 million payment in the back half of 2026.
Speaker #11: However, in our outlook, expectations for net debt to increase for the full year, year over year, do include a $100 million payment in the back half of 2026.
Speaker #1: As there are no further questions, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.
Nick: As there are no further questions, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.
Operator: As there are no further questions, this concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Ken Lane for closing comments.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Nick. I just want to thank everyone for joining us today, and thank you for your interest in Olin. I wish you all a very safe and relaxing weekend.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Nick. I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. Thank you for your interest in Olin. I wish you all a very safe and relaxing weekend.
Ken Lane: Thank you, Nick. I just want to thank everyone for joining us today. Thank you for your interest in Olin. I wish you all a very safe and relaxing weekend.
Nick: Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
Operator: Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.