Q2 2026 Boston Beer Co Inc Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Greetings. Welcome to the Boston Beer Company Q2 2026 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation.
Speaker #1: If anyone would like to request operator assistance, please press *0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary.
Speaker #1: Please go ahead.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome. This is Mike Andrews, Associate General Counsel and Corporate Secretary of the Boston Beer Company. I'm pleased to kick off our Q2 2026 earnings call.
Speaker #2: Joining the call from Boston Beer are Jim Koch, founder, CEO, and chairman; and Diego Reynoso, our CFO. Before we discuss our business, I'll start with our disclaimer.
Speaker #2: As we state in our earnings release, some of the information we discuss and that may come up on this call reflects the company's or management's expectations or predictions of the future.
Speaker #2: Such predictions are forward-looking statements. It is important to note that the company's actual results could differ materially from those projected in these forward-looking statements.
Speaker #2: Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's most recent 10-Q and 10-K.
Speaker #2: The company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I will now pass it over to Jim for an introductory comment.
Speaker #3: remarks this afternoon with an overview of our strategy and operating results before turning the call over to Diego to discuss our Q2 financial results and our financial outlook for the remainder of 2026.
Speaker #3: Immediately following Diego's comments, we will open the line for questions. In the first half, the overall beer market improved modestly, although demand was uneven throughout the period.
Speaker #3: The category was nearly flat in the first quarter before softening in the second quarter, with May proving particularly challenging. Trends improved in June, as consumer demand benefited from increased drinking occasions around the World Cup and America's 250th anniversary celebrations.
Speaker #3: We estimate the combined total beer and beyond beer market was down 2% in volume in the first half, compared to a decline of 4% for the full year of 2025.
Speaker #3: Beyond beer continues to outperform traditional beer in volume in measured off-premise channels, decreasing 1% for the first half compared to traditional beer which declined 4%.
Speaker #3: We anticipate industry volume headwinds for the remainder of 2026, as consumers remain under pressure from the cumulative effects of inflation and a significant increase in gas prices.
Speaker #3: With respect to Boston Beer portfolio volume trends, our performance continues to lag the pace of improvement in the broader category. In the second quarter, we delivered triple-digit depletion growth in Sun Cruiser, continued growth in Angry Orchard, and strong on-premise results across the portfolio, as major events helped drive incremental drinking occasions.
Speaker #3: However, twisted tea and truly, continue to face declines and market share challenges. Our second quarter depletions were down 6% in shipments were down 4.5%.
Speaker #3: First-half shipments were down 5.6%, modestly trailing depletions, which were down 5%. For the full year, we expect shipments and depletion trends to be broadly aligned.
Speaker #3: Improvements in our supply chain that we activated in the second half of last year have enabled us to reduce wholesaler inventory levels consistently to approximately 4 to 4.5 weeks, while reducing quarter-to-quarter variability.
Speaker #3: These improvements will affect the timing of shipments compared to the prior year across the third and fourth quarters. Diego will provide additional detail on these shipment timing dynamics in his remarks.
Speaker #3: We continue to make strong progress on our margin enhancement initiatives, delivering a 50.4% Q2 gross margin despite higher aluminum, energy, and tariff costs. We are on track to achieve our planned full-year 2026 savings.
Speaker #3: The business is generating strong cash flow, and we have purchased over $55 million in shares year to date. Our priorities for 2026 remain focused on strengthening our category-leading brands to improve market share trends, launching strong innovation, and driving continued gross margin expansion.
Speaker #3: With a significant number of key summer selling season weeks still ahead, we are focused on executing our plans with urgency to improve our share performance.
Speaker #3: We have maintained our earnings guidance while navigating a dynamic demand environment and cost inflation headwinds. Based on our evaluation of the category environment and the return on our brand investments year to date, we have decided to reduce our planned incremental advertising investment range by $20 million by eliminating some lower-performing advertising.
Speaker #3: Even with this adjustment, we continue to invest in our brands at levels well above historical averages, reflecting the meaningful step-up in support we made last year, while continuing to take a disciplined approach to additional investment.
Speaker #3: We remain focused on delivering our marketing plans through strong partnerships, compelling programs, and effective local market activation, in partnership with our wholesalers. At retail, we have slightly gained shelf space this year, but lost display space.
Speaker #3: I'll now provide an overview of our brand performance and plans. As I mentioned on our last call, a key priority for 2026 is to improve share trends and grow volume in the hard tea category through progress in twisted tea and the continued expansion of Sun Cruiser.
Speaker #3: On a combined basis, Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser volume is very slightly positive, and revenue is growing. Year to date, through 29 weeks, Sun Cruiser is revenue and margin accretive for us, and the brand continues to expand distribution and recruit new drinkers.
Speaker #3: Twisted tea continues to dominate the malt-based hard tea market with an over 85% share and no single competitor, having more than a 5% share.
Speaker #3: However, Twisted Tea is facing volume and share pressures, with lower velocities reflecting broader F&B category headwinds and reduced feature and display activity, primarily due to the expansion of RTD spirits and interaction with spirits-based hard teas.
Speaker #3: The largest volume headwind continues to be concentrated in 12-packs, which have been impacted by reduced displays in the F&B category, together with consumer purchasing behavior away from larger pack sizes.
Speaker #3: Across the Twisted Tea portfolio, Twisted Tea Singles, Twisted Tea Light, and Twisted Tea Extreme all grew share in the F&B category. So far this year, we've increased advertising investment, added new partnerships, launched new pack sizes, and expanded Twisted Tea Extreme offerings and distribution.
Speaker #3: We are also taking a disciplined test-and-learn approach to revenue management on the brand, including targeting pricing adjustments and smaller pack size offerings. These initiatives are still in the early stages, and we will continue to assess their impact as we gather additional data.
Speaker #3: Recent promotional activity included sponsorships of Pardon My Take’s Tahoe Week. Pardon My Take is Barstool's number one sports podcast, and Twisted Tea was front and center across all content during Tahoe Week, including custom merchandise and advertising.
Speaker #3: Late in the second quarter, we launched a Hispanic summer retail program across key markets that includes Spanish-language sweepstakes and point-of-sale, complementing our Hispanic summer media campaign, and focused on growing household penetration, awareness, and relevance with Hispanic drinkers.
Speaker #3: Later this quarter, we'll be running our high-performing tea drop national college football-themed ads, complemented by our game day variety packs, college football team-specific packaging, in-store display programs, and always-on media for twisted tea extreme and twisted tea light.
Speaker #3: Also beginning this fall, we are expanding our partnership with Real Tree Camo, and we'll be launching twisted tea Real Tree Camo-themed national packaging and promotion.
Speaker #3: Sun Cruiser has quickly grown to a top-five spirit RTD and is among the fastest-growing brands by volume in the category, across combined measured on- and off-premise channels.
Speaker #3: Built-in bars and restaurants, Sun Cruiser is the leading RTD spirits tea and lemonade brand in the measured on-premise channel, where we are continuing to invest.
Speaker #3: The brand is also seeing strong growth as it further expands in off-premise, with the highest growth in velocity in comparison to leading RTD spirits, tea, and lemonade brands.
Speaker #3: We expect strong distribution gains for Sun Cruiser in 2026, but continue to expect measured channel off-premise data coverage to be lower versus our other brands, due to Sun Cruiser's strong presence in on-premise and off-premise independence.
Speaker #3: Advertising support for Sun Cruiser includes content around the Let the Good Times Cruise media campaign, which includes TV, paid social, and digital advertising, and key influencers and creators.
Speaker #3: Our key influencers' content includes our summer-long partnership with creator, TV personality, and outdoor enthusiast Dylan Efron, with events and promotions built around the simple idea of enjoying getting outside with friends and drinking Sun Cruiser.
Speaker #3: Sun Cruiser continues to have a growing media presence in sports this summer, including the PGA, the MLB, the world champion New York Knicks, and sponsorship of numerous music concert series.
Speaker #3: Our multi-year partnership with the USGA made Sun Cruiser the official ready-to-drink canned cocktail of two of golf's most notable championships, the U.S. Open and the U.S. Women's Open.
Speaker #3: We continue to see strong demand for Sun Cruiser, and we're committed to keeping a disciplined level of tea and lemonade styles as we continue to grow our volume.
Speaker #3: We expect the brand will continue to grow for the remainder of 2026, with further runway for long-term expansion. Turning to hard seltzer, Truly maintained its number two share position in the hard seltzer category.
Speaker #3: However, volume and share trends remain challenged. Within the Truly portfolio, high ABV Truly Unruly and the Wildberry flavor continue to significantly outperform our other styles.
Speaker #3: The investments we made in new brand creative and soccer-related promotions have improved our marketplace presence, particularly in display activity. However, the impact on consumer demand has not yet met our expectations.
Speaker #3: We are adjusting the level and timing of our investments in Truly as we reassess the most effective approach to accelerating brand performance. We maintain our focus on strengthening the brand and will continue to refine our marketplace approach while taking a disciplined approach to investment.
Speaker #3: Insider Angry Orchard grew for the fifth consecutive quarter behind our lead styles, Angry Orchard Crisp and Crisp Imperial. Crisp Imperial volume has increased more than 60% in the second quarter in measured off-premise channels.
Speaker #3: Angry Orchard growth is supported by its brand positioning around "don't get angry, get Orchard," our refreshed creative, and strong retail programming. Angry Orchard will continue to focus on building the momentum behind its successful Halloween programming and its recently announced partnership with the iconic Scream horror movie series.
Speaker #3: For our Samuel Adams brand, to support and help celebrate America's 250th anniversary, we launched limited-edition retro packaging and 'Drink Like It's 1776' retail programming and promotions.
Speaker #3: In our home market of Boston, we had record sales at our tap rooms this summer, as soccer fans from Scotland and all over the world celebrated and discovered Samuel Adams Boston Lager, and our Samuel Adams Summer Ale.
Speaker #3: For our Dogfish Head brand, in the second quarter, we slightly lost share and had our first quarter of decline after four consecutive quarters of growth.
Speaker #3: We continue to expand dogfish heads, Grateful Dead beer collaboration, and invest behind the Minute Series IPAs, while bolstering our connection to music by introducing a new partnership with Rolling Stone Magazine, that was activated earlier this quarter and includes event activation and co-branded packaging for 2027.
Speaker #3: Turning to innovation, we continue to prioritize high-growth, margin-accretive opportunities that complement our core brand portfolio. Seamless Vodka Cocktails have launched in over 30 states, and are a full-flavored, liquor-based cocktail with zero sugar, zero carbs, and 100 calories per can.
Speaker #3: Also, we have launched a new RTD cocktail brand, named Lit Electric Coolers, in over five states. Lit is 15% ABV, malt-based, and offered in six flavors in a distinctive, resealable 6.8-ounce single-serve package.
Speaker #3: Both Seamless vodka cocktails and Lit are in the early stages of launch. Thus far, we're encouraged by the positive response from wholesalers, retailers, and drinkers but Seamless and Lit are not expected to contribute meaningfully to our 2026 volumes.
Speaker #3: In closing, while the operating environment remains challenging, we are seeing some signs of improvement in the category and remain focused on building momentum through the balance of the year.
Speaker #3: We are managing the business with discipline, investing behind our category-leading brands, advancing our innovation agenda, and working closely with our distributor partners to drive long-term value creation.
Speaker #3: I'd like to thank our Boston Beer Company team, as well as our distributors and retailers, for their continued support. I'll now pass the call to Diego for a detailed review of the second quarter and our 2026 guidance.
Speaker #1: Thank you, Jim. Good afternoon, everyone. Depletions in the second quarter decreased 6%, and shipments decreased 4.5% compared to the second quarter of last year.
Speaker #1: Primarily driven by decreases in our Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Hard Mountain Dew, and Dogfish Head brands, that were only partially offset by increases in our Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard brands.
Speaker #1: As Jim noted earlier, at down 5.6%, shipments declined at a slightly higher rate than depletions in the first half. Distributor inventory at the end of the quarter was 4.5 weeks on hand and was consistent with the weeks on hand at the end of the second quarter last year.
Speaker #1: Revenue for the quarter decreased 3.3% due to lower volume, partially offset by price increases and a favorable product mix. Pricing was below our full-year guidance range in the second quarter.
Speaker #1: List price realization was moderated by the timing of distributor incentives related to the World Cup programming. Positive product mix was driven by strong growth in Sun Cruiser.
Speaker #1: Partially offset by inflationary commodity and tariff costs. Advertising, promotional, and selling expenses increased $26.2 million, or 16.4% year on year, resulting from increased local brand marketing and point-of-sale investments of $17.5 million.
Speaker #1: And a slightly higher than planned freight cost increase of 8.6 million dollars, with higher rates partially offset by lower volumes. General and administrative expenses increased 3.1 million dollars, primarily due to increased legal fees and salaries and benefit costs.
Speaker #1: These increases included $1.4 million of legal fees related to the previously discussed supplier dispute litigation. Operating profit reflected strong gross margin performance, offset by significant advertising investment and freight rate inflation.
Speaker #1: Which increased more than 35% year over year. The supplier dispute litigation expense adjustment of 19.3 million consists of a favorable adjustment to pre-judgment interest of 21 million, and a post-judgment interest expense of 1.7 million.
Speaker #1: Year-to-date pre-tax litigation expenses plus related fees total $198.1 million. As previously announced, we continue to intend to pursue all post-trial motions and appellate remedies that are available to us on the supplier dispute litigation.
Speaker #1: We cannot estimate when or if damages or interest will ultimately be paid, but we do not expect this issue to have a material impact on our operating plans.
Speaker #1: The impact of these litigation expenses and related legal fees represent a $1.31 favorable impact to our second quarter gap $14.27 unfavorable impact to our year-to-date gap EPS.
Speaker #1: Excluding the litigation-related expenses, second quarter non-GAAP EPS was $3.65. Now, I'd like to provide an update on our ongoing productivity initiative. We continue to make progress and are on track to deliver our 2026 savings target across the four buckets that I've discussed previously.
Speaker #1: I'll now provide some highlights on our initiatives in each bucket. In brewery performance, we continue to see improvements in OEEs driven by process improvement, which helped to increase our internal production capacity.
Speaker #1: In the second quarter, we produced 84% of our domestic volume internally compared to 76% in the second quarter of last year. For the full year, 2026, we continue to estimate domestic internal production will be over 90% compared to 86% last year.
Speaker #1: In procurement savings, our second quarter results benefited from lower negotiated pricing on certain packaging and ingredients. As discussed previously, procurement savings have been a significant contributor to our gross margin improvement over the last two years.
Speaker #1: While we expect some continuous benefit in 2026, the impact is expected to be more moderate versus 2025. In waste and network optimization, we are continuing to enhance our customer ordering and inventory management system.
Speaker #1: These efforts helped us achieve high customer service levels, lower inventories, and improve our cash flow. In addition, we've reduced obsolete inventories 42% in the first half of this year.
Speaker #1: Revenue management capabilities were added this year as part of our margin agenda. These efforts are in early stages in 2026, with a more meaningful contribution expected in 2027.
Speaker #1: Turning to our 2026 guidance, we are maintaining our full-year volume guidance range of down low single digits to down mid-single digits. Fiscal week depletion trends for the first 29 weeks of 2026 have declined 5% year over year.
Speaker #1: Our volume range reflects varying assumptions for the pace of improvement in the second half. Based on our current total company trends, we would expect full-year performance toward the lower end of the range.
Speaker #1: We believe our operating plans can drive improvement from current trend levels, however, the high end of the full-year range would require stronger category and market share trends.
Speaker #1: In the second half, we expect continued strong growth from Sun Cruiser. Additionally, adjustments to the timing of our Samuel Adams seasonal transition, as well as slightly more contribution from our innovation and international brands, are expected to be volume tailwinds in the second half.
Speaker #1: We continue to expect price increases of between 1% and 2%, with some additional benefits from mix. While managing through a dynamic volume and commodity environment, we are raising the low end of our full-year gross margin guidance and maintaining our non-GAAP EPS guidance.
Speaker #1: Driven by strong cost savings delivery and disciplined adjustments to our planned advertising investments. We do not hedge commodities and have updated our cost assumptions for freight and aluminum to reflect the current pricing environment.
Speaker #1: We are closely watching market cost changes and will update our EPS outlook as we move through the year, if commodity inflation continues to increase. Our updated gross margin guidance of 48.5% to 50% reflects tailwinds from positive pricing, favorable product mix, productivity savings, and lower shortfall fees.
Speaker #1: With headwinds from tariffs and commodity inflation. As a reminder, the majority of our freight expense is booked in advertising, promotional, and selling expenses. Our 2026 guidance continues to reflect the full-year tariff cost estimate of $20 to $30 million, versus a partial year in 2025 of $11 million.
Speaker #1: These tariff cost estimates are based on the tariffs that we are currently being charged by our suppliers and that we expect to continue going forward.
Speaker #1: As Jim noted, we've updated our outlook for advertising, promotional, and selling expenses, and now expect them to be flat to up $20 million versus the prior year.
Speaker #1: Compared to our previous expectation of an increase of $20 million and $40 million. This amount does not include any changes in freight costs for the shipment of products to our distributors.
Speaker #1: We may choose to spend at the lower end of our range depending on the commodities and energy cost environment, and the returns we are seeing on our investments.
Speaker #1: We estimate our four-year 2026 non-GAAP effective tax rate to be approximately 29% to 30%, with non-GAAP EPS of $8.50 to $10.50. As you model out the year, please keep in mind the following factors.
Speaker #1: In 2025, we implemented supply chain improvements that enabled more consistent distributor inventory levels. The impact of this change on prior-year quarterly shipment flows, combined with our expected timing of shipments to meet our customer demands in 2026, will affect the quarterly phasing of shipments in the second half of the year.
Speaker #1: We currently expect shipments in the third quarter (Q3) to decline low to mid-single digits, followed by modest shipment growth in the fourth quarter (Q4).
Speaker #1: Due to the typical seasonality of our business, we expect the fourth quarter to have the lowest absolute gross margin of the year. However, year-over-year gross margin rate improvements are expected to be the most meaningful in the fourth quarter.
Speaker #1: Driven by lower shortfall fees and volume performance. We typically expense the majority of our shortfall fees in the fourth quarter. The timing of this benefit, together with the fact that the fourth quarter is a smaller dollar quarter, has an outsized favorable impact on the gross margin rate.
Speaker #1: Advertising investment levels are expected to decline year over year in the fourth quarter, as we've reduced investment levels in Truly and we are lapping high investment levels in the fourth quarter of 2025, which included meaningful production costs associated with preparation for the 2026 program.
Speaker #1: Turning to capital allocation, we ended the quarter with a cash balance of $266 million and $150 million of availability in our credit line. These balances, together with our projected future operating cash flows, enable us to maintain operating investments in our business and cash returns to shareholders, as well as potential litigation-related payments.
Speaker #1: We expect capital expenditures of between $60 million and $80 million in 2026, a reduction from our previous estimate of between $70 million and $90 million.
Speaker #1: These investments will be primarily related to our own breweries to build capabilities, improve efficiencies, and support innovations. We will continue to be disciplined in our capital spending as we monitor the dynamic industry environment over the long term.
Speaker #1: During the 26-week period ended June 27, 2026, and in the period from June 29, 2026, through July 17, 2026, we repurchased shares in the amounts of $48.5 million and $5.6 million, respectively.
Speaker #1: As of July 18, 2026, we had approximately $174 million remaining on the $1.6 billion share repurchase authorization. This concludes our prepared remarks.
Speaker #1: And now we'll open the line for questions.
Speaker #2: Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star-one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.
Speaker #2: You may press star two to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.
Speaker #2: And due to the interest of time, we ask that each analyst limit themselves to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. And our first question comes from the line of Filippo Falloni with Citi.
Speaker #2: Please proceed.
Speaker #3: Hi, good afternoon everyone. So Jim, maybe to start—hi. So maybe, Jim, to start, I'd love to get your perspective on the volatility that we've seen in the industry. Obviously, gas prices had an impact in May.
Speaker #3: You've seen a bit of an improvement in June, but you mentioned also some of the events. Just at a big-picture level, what are your expectations as you think about the balance of the summer and the balance of the year?
Speaker #3: Any signs of underlying improvement in July that give you some more optimism at the industry level? Just love to hear your thoughts on the broader environment.
Speaker #1: Sure. To me, all alcoholic beverages are under some pressure. Beer is certainly in that category. We’re seeing so far this year, basically, traditional beer being down to maybe 3%, depending on which data you’re looking at.
Speaker #1: Beyond beer, doing better—again, depending on the data, maybe down 1%, maybe flat. And then, with the bright spot, which is especially relevant to us, of RTD spirits like Sun Cruiser. So, I think the big picture is we've seen some improvement in things that drove the category down 4% last year.
Speaker #1: So I don't think that will be repeated this year. We've seen less pressure on the Hispanic community. The sort of drumbeat of health issues—'beer causes cancer'—that's been a little bit lessened.
Speaker #1: With the new dietary guidelines, hemp is still there. And depending on what happens legislatively, it may go away. I think most people are betting that's going to happen.
Speaker #1: In the middle of November, though, there were some kind of rescue efforts, and it's a very volatile environment. So the fundamental pressures are less, but they're still there.
Speaker #1: And what we've seen, starting maybe late in the first quarter, early in the second quarter this year, is just the economic pressure resulting from events in the Middle East and the loss of discretionary income.
Speaker #1: People’s wages this year have not kept up with inflation, which means it has an amplified impact on discretionary income, and that has offset some of the macro trends.
Speaker #1: How long those economic pressures are going to be around, we don't know. I think a lot of people are kind of assuming that they'll lessen before Election Day, but that's just anybody's guess.
Speaker #1: So, bottom line, there may be one or two percent chronic, long-term downward pressure on per capita consumption, somewhat offset by continuing premiumization. Does that help?
Speaker #3: Right. That's helpful, that's helpful. And then maybe one follow-up for Diego. You mentioned that on shipments and depletions, you're tracking towards the lower end of the range, causes of the mid-single.
Speaker #3: For the year, does that imply also towards the lower end on EPS, or should we think margin—there's an opportunity to offset some of the pressure on the top line?
Speaker #1: Yeah, thank you for the question. Just to clarify, I think my comment is if current trends continue, yes, our top line will be on the lower end.
Speaker #1: Not necessarily the same thing on EPS. And that's why we took our guidance slightly up on gross margin. I think we continue to deliver our savings.
Speaker #1: And we have the ability to flex some of the things like our investments in the back end of the year. So I would say those are a little bit—yes, they're related, but they're a little bit independent guidances.
Speaker #3: Got it. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.
Speaker #2: And the next question comes from the line of Peter Graham with UBS. Please proceed.
Speaker #4: Great, thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. I'd maybe just add some perspective on the World Cup, the 250th anniversary of the United States. Just heading into the year, there was a lot of optimism from the industry around the uptick in beer volume that these events could provide.
Speaker #4: So just maybe love some perspective, maybe how it all played out relative to your expectations—at least in the track data. It doesn't seem like there was a big uptick. Maybe just a perspective in terms of what you saw on-premise, which you kind of alluded to.
Speaker #4: So maybe I'll just start there. And then the second question would just be—it's more of a housekeeping item—just kind of the cadence of the shipments and depletions versus the back half of the year.
Speaker #4: Maybe, what are you assuming from a category perspective? And is the fourth quarter improvement simply just kind of the cadence of shipments and what you're kind of lapping?
Speaker #4: Thanks.
Speaker #1: Sure. I'll take the first half of that, Peter, and then hand it off to Diego. In terms of the big events of the summer—World Cup and America 250—I think there was a fair bit of optimism.
Speaker #1: And that was justified in the piece of the business that was affected by those events. Let me take the World Cup. And in Boston, on-premise, we saw tremendous numbers.
Speaker #1: Like, a 30% increase. So that's very exciting. But when you step back, you have to remember for us, on-premise is 12% of our business.
Speaker #1: So that's exciting, but it doesn't really affect the other 88% of our business. And in terms of the World Cup, it was affected, I think, 11 major metros in the US that were, order of magnitude, maybe 30% of the US volume.
Speaker #1: So it was a really significant event for on-premise in the 11 host cities. Now that piece is what—12% of 30%. So you've got 3.6%.
Speaker #1: And let's say that happened over, I don't know, six weeks—so one-eighth of the year. So, when you do the arithmetic on it, you are looking at less than half a percent of the annual business.
Speaker #1: And if that's up 30%, that's exciting and nice for a while. But it's not global across the whole beer business. And, in fact, the off-premise numbers for those six weeks were not particularly exciting.
Speaker #1: They were down, so I think it had a big impact in a small part of the year and a small part of the total business.
Speaker #1: And I think that was roughly true for America 250. It was a big weekend. For us, it fell more in Q3 than Q2, so it's not in the Q2 numbers.
Speaker #1: Our Sam Adams trends were better during the last four weeks, so it did have a significant impact on a small part of the business.
Speaker #1: And second part, I'll take the second part of the question. So within that, your first question is what are we assuming? As I mentioned before, if we keep our current trends, we'll be in our lower end of our guidance.
Speaker #1: So, we don't want to be at the lower end of our guidance—we want to improve. So, we are expecting our relative performance to improve, as well as some improvement in the category.
Speaker #1: But that is not the key driver of the shipment component. The key driver of the shipment component between Q3 and Q4 and the reason Q4 is a little better is we're lapping the shipments from prior year when we were installing our automated replenishment system.
Speaker #1: We have easier Twist and Key comps in the second half. We also have innovation that we're launching this year that will help on the back end, which is seamless and lit.
Speaker #1: And a little bit more international volume in H2. So yes, there's a little bit of a correlation—the better the depletions do, obviously, the better the shipments do.
Speaker #1: But between Q3 and Q4, it's more those items that are driving the Q4 uptick in shipments.
Speaker #4: Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.
Speaker #2: The next question comes from the line of Eric Serrada with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
Speaker #5: Great. Thanks for taking the question. Jim, can you talk a bit about how you're thinking about Sun Cruiser growth in the second half as you cycle the national distribution expansion?
Speaker #5: Which, I guess, went in place largely before the summer of last year. And then can you talk a bit about sort of the initiatives that you're thinking that you're that you have on tap for next year for Sun Cruiser to sort of keep the growth going in year three or year two and a half?
Speaker #1: Yeah, it's a good question. So far this year, for Sun Cruiser, it's up triple digits. With that rate deteriorating slowly over the course of the year, it's still up—not that far off of triple digits—for the last 13 weeks.
Speaker #1: It's basically at triple digits, but we do expect that will come down. Sun Cruiser is something that's not captured in the syndicated data, so it's much bigger than the syndicated data indicates.
Speaker #1: It's very strong on premise, which we think indicates fundamental brand strength. And the majority of it is sold in independent accounts many of whom are not tracked.
Speaker #1: So we see continued upside for it. We will continue to invest. Against Sun Cruiser, it has both what's got linear TV behind it, it's got digital, social, YouTube.
Speaker #1: Advertising behind it. And we will continue to invest at a high level. The reductions that we made, which we mentioned in the earnings release, are not particularly affecting Sun Cruiser.
Speaker #1: We are continuing to feed the growth. I think in 2027, there will be some downshifting because this year we got into a lot of chains.
Speaker #1: In 2025, we really came to the—we had to get the distribution sold in the summer and fall of 2024, and we just weren't in a position to do that.
Speaker #1: So, distribution from the chains, based on 2025 presentations. And that manifested itself from, like, February till May with the resets. We don't see such a big opportunity in 2027.
Speaker #1: I would certainly anticipate well into the double digits next year. And one of the ways I look at it is: what is our volume between Twisted Tea and Sun Cruiser?
Speaker #1: And essentially, the volume this year that we've lost with Twisted Tea we have slightly more than offset with Sun Cruiser. And Sun Cruiser is a little over 25, maybe closer to 30 percent higher revenue per case than Twisted Tea.
Speaker #1: So, it is revenue accretive as well as margin accretive.
Speaker #5: And then, just in terms of a follow-up, you've tried a lot of different things on Twisted over the past 18 months, from marketing to some extensions on the Light and the Extreme side.
Speaker #5: Some of the pricing and price pack architecture initiatives you've been pursuing don't really seem to be moving the needle, especially given the current environment with so many pressures outside of your control.
Speaker #5: So I guess, what are you thinking about, or how are you thinking about, the playbook for improving Twisted from here? Pricing doesn't seem to be doing a lot in terms of stimulating volumes on the margins.
Speaker #5: So, I guess, what are some of the things on tap for the second half there?
Speaker #1: Yeah. One big element here is we believe that a lot of the loss of volume out of Twisted Tea went into the RTD spirits-based hard tea, particularly Sun Cruiser and Surfside.
Speaker #1: So, as those slow down, we anticipate that means a slowing of the loss of drinkers of Twisted Tea that has gone into the spirits-based hard teas like Sun Cruiser and Surfside.
Speaker #1: So as that slows down, I think it will relieve some of the pressure on Twisted Tea. We have had some success with getting the pricing fixed, particularly in the markets where it really just got way higher than it should have—where markets where a 12-pack of Twisted Tea was more expensive than a 12-pack of Stella, for example.
Speaker #1: So, in those markets—and there haven't been that many of them—we have seen trends turn from negative to positive, particularly on the 12-packs.
Speaker #1: Our singles business, which is our second-biggest package, is pretty strong. And the volume that we're getting—we're growing with the Twisted Tea Extreme and Twisted Tea Light.
Speaker #1: Those are actually growth. So we have some significant pockets of growth within Twisted Tea, which indicates to me that the brand health is pretty good.
Speaker #1: The singles volume is pretty close to flat. And next year, again, we probably will be very modest in price increases on the 12-pack. So, try to stabilize that and reduce the times where we just got out, where the pricing just got way above what the brand has historically commanded.
Speaker #1: So those are the things I would see for 2026—the back half of the year. We do believe our advertising is good. We haven't changed the ad campaign.
Speaker #1: And we're still continuing to advertise at the higher levels that we put in place in 2025.
Speaker #5: Great. Thanks. I'll pass it on.
Speaker #3: The next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Speaker #6: All right, thank you. And hi, everyone. I just maybe had a quick question on your guidance. You talked about, I guess, pointing to the low end of your depletion and shipment guidance for the full year.
Speaker #6: And then your depletions were down 5% year-to-date through last week. So, I guess I'd love to hear from you—how big of a risk do you see for your depletions to possibly decrease further in the next several months, especially considering the incremental $18 million in advertising spend during Q2?
Speaker #6: I'm not sure it necessarily drove the improvements you were looking for. So, and then now you're planning on, I guess, pulling back on spend, or don't expect any incremental spend in the back half.
Speaker #6: So, just trying to reconcile that. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Yeah. So, look, we can't control what the market will do. We've seen some improvements in the last couple of weeks that we think will help the market, and that, in turn, will also help the company.
Speaker #1: Sun Cruiser continues to drive very strong performance. We've seen some improvement in reaction to our Twisted Tea promotions and price adjustments. We have strong partnerships coming up in the back end of the year.
Speaker #1: So all of those pieces tell us that there is an opportunity for improvement. Now, that being said, if the current trend continues, we are on the low end.
Speaker #1: And that's why we've kind of laid out that piece. But we also have two big innovations that we're really happy with, with LIT and SIDMOS coming in the back end of the year.
Speaker #1: There are a couple of other things we haven't announced that we're working on. So if you put all those pieces together, I think we feel comfortable with where we are today.
Speaker #1: Now, if the market were to improve significantly or deteriorate significantly, we would have to make that correction. But at this point, I think we're comfortable with where we are, which is, this is our guidance.
Speaker #1: And yes, we can improve, but we don't believe there's, right now, a big risk of that deteriorating.
Speaker #6: Okay. And for—we now have better...
Speaker #7: Metrics on the return on our advertising investment by brand and by media channel, if you will. So, the cuts that we made were to the low-performing media—the ones where we just weren't seeing any significant sales response, which were primarily, truly, to be direct about it.
Speaker #7: So it was almost $20 million we cut, but it was almost all from basically non-performing advertising.
Speaker #1: Yeah. And finally, I would add, in the back end of the year, our APNS is still planned to be up year on year. We might not take all the investment that we thought it to be at the end of the year.
Speaker #1: But by the back end of the year, we'll still see an increase versus the previous year in spending on marketing and sales.
Speaker #6: Okay, thanks. And Jim, thanks for that call. I was actually just going to ask about that, so that's helpful to understand. I'll pass it on.
Speaker #6: Thank you.
Speaker #1: Thank you.
Speaker #3: Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The next question will come from the line of Bill Kirk with Roth Partners.
Speaker #3: Please proceed.
Speaker #8: Hey, good evening everyone. Jim, you mentioned, when you were outlining the innovation pipeline, you obviously mentioned Sinless and you mentioned LIT. I guess, first, what do you need to see in those products to decide to take them into more markets?
Speaker #8: And then in the call-it BACA AIDS segment, I believe you have some plans and some labels out there for a product to play in that space.
Speaker #8: Is there anything you're willing to share on the innovation pipeline in that subsegment?
Speaker #1: Sure. I'll start with Sinless. We're in about 30 states, and in most of those states, it is a whole new category. We are the first mover in those states.
Speaker #1: Carbless has been in the upper Midwest for many years. We're not focusing Sinless on those states. Carbless is established, I think, in a very nice market position, but we think we'll get more volume from opening new territory.
Speaker #1: But it is a new category, and almost all of those 30 states. So we believe it will take some development. But so far, we've seen enough traction to be happy with opening 30 states on it.
Speaker #1: We don't—we're not going to expand it until we see more, so that wouldn't be until next year to add to those 30 states, and it might not be until the second half of next year.
Speaker #1: With Lit, it's just way too early to tell. Launching something in June or July—as you know, in this business, the distributors have already set their programs.
Speaker #1: And they are just busy capitalizing on the summer volume. So, I think in August, September, and October, we will begin to see more attention from our wholesalers.
Speaker #1: We view Lit as a hand-sell type of product. It's not a chain product, so you can't merchandise it the way you merchandise pretty much everything else in a liquor store.
Speaker #1: It needs special racks, it needs inserts into the coolers so that you can hang the bottles. You can't just feed them down the gravity racks.
Speaker #1: So it's a lot of sort of hand-to-hand combat. To get it in is easy, but you've got to make it easy for a consumer to buy it.
Speaker #1: So it needs to be in the cooler, and then you need to have some sort of shock displays in two or three places in the store.
Speaker #1: The retailers are supportive of that because the profit is really high, so—and we're getting wholesaler support. The margins are two or three times what you'd get even from a higher-end beer.
Speaker #1: So I think that's, again, a slow burn. And we'll know more—we won't, it'll be early next year before I think we're going to see a reliable read on either Sinless or LIT.
Speaker #8: Excellent. And if I could follow up on one other thing you said—you mentioned the intoxicating hemp bans, or the looming ban there.
Speaker #8: You have experience in Canada with cannabis, so how do you think about the opportunity in the US for similar products? And would you want intoxicating hemp beverages to see a carve-out from the looming ban?
Speaker #1: I'll give you the first part of it, which is, we have had a THC business in Canada for maybe five or six years. It's small because beverages are only, I don't know, maybe 5% of the THC delivery in Canada.
Speaker #1: But we've got a strong position in that 5% with Teapot. And so we have a product, a brand, and experience in Canada where we've been reasonably successful within this small niche in the Canadian THC business.
Speaker #1: So, we are kind of locked and loaded, and we are waiting for the federal government to tell us: is this stuff legal or not?
Speaker #1: And if it's legal, we will—to the extent wholesalers and retailers want a product from us and are willing to support it. And I think we can probably check those boxes.
Speaker #1: We do see some opportunity with Teapot in the US. In terms of support it, don't support it, I mean, we just make beer. I'm not here to set federal policy on THC.
Speaker #1: We will wait to see what the government tells us is legal or not legal to do, and respond accordingly.
Speaker #8: Got it. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jim Cook for closing remarks.
Speaker #1: Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us on what I hope is a beautiful summer day wherever you are. So, one thing we did learn from the World Cup is that there's a lot of joy in going out and drinking some alcohol, and having the social lubricant effect.
Speaker #1: So, I will remind you, in this America 250 year, to paraphrase Samuel Adams' drinking buddy, Benjamin Franklin: Beer is the best proof we have that God loves us and wants us to be happy.
Speaker #1: Cheers.
