Q2 2026 Evotec SE Earnings Call
Speaker #1: Good morning, good afternoon, and welcome to today's webcast and conference call. My name is Sarah Farky, and I'm the head of Global Communications and Investor Relations at EvoTech.
Speaker #1: Please allow me to introduce today's speakers. Joining me on the call are Christian Wojciechski, Chief Executive Officer of EvoTech, and Claire Hinchelwood, our Chief Financial Officer.
Speaker #1: Please note that this call is being webcast live and will be archived in the events calendar on our website. Before we begin, a few forward-looking statements.
Speaker #1: The discussion and responses to your questions on this call reflect management's views, as of today, Tuesday, July 14, 2026. During this call, we will make statements and provide responses that state our intentions, beliefs, expectations, or projections regarding the future.
Speaker #1: These statements constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.
Speaker #1: EvoTech disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. For further information regarding these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our public filings and disclosures.
Speaker #1: With this, let me hand over the call to Christian.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Sarah. Good morning and good afternoon to everyone. Thank you for joining today's call. Following our announcement last night, we are providing today an update based on preliminary unaudited financial results.
Speaker #2: For the second quarter and first half of 2026, as well as an updated outlook for the full year. As a reminder, publication of our full financial results is scheduled for August 13.
Speaker #2: During our full year 2025, results presentation in April, we guided for a challenging first half of 2026. This outlook primarily reflected our anticipated continuation of the softness in the discovering early drug discovery market seen in 2025, as well as the effect of the non-recurrence of the 25 million dollars and those licensing payment in the first quarter of the previous year.
Speaker #2: Our preliminary second quarter results extend the trends we saw in the first quarter. Group revenues in the first half of '26 are expected to amount to 300.1 million euros, while adjusted group EBITDA is expected to land at minus 42.7 million euros compared with the first half of 2025.
Speaker #2: Our expectation in April for a stronger second half of 2026 was based on two assumptions. A gradual recovery in market activity and increasing contributions from strategic partnership activities.
Speaker #2: Based on our current visibility for the second half, we're now revising the assumptions on strategic partnerships and, as a result, updating our full year guidance.
Speaker #2: The key drivers behind this revision are summarized on the right-hand side of the slide and can be grouped into three categories. The first category relates to phasing and milestone-related revenues from existing strategic partnerships, across both segments.
Speaker #2: These account for approximately 40% of the revenue difference between our original and updated outlook. Importantly, these revenues are delayed not lost, and are expected to be recognized in '27 rather than '26.
Speaker #2: The second category relates to potential new strategic partnerships in our DNPD segment. We now expect lower-than-anticipated revenue contributions in the second half of '26, as a result of longer timelines for reaching and finalizing new agreements.
Speaker #2: This category accounts for approximately 45% of the revenue difference, importantly, our underlying partnership pipeline remains healthy and active, with multiple opportunities at various stages of engagement, including advanced discussions with potential big pharma partners.
Speaker #2: While we are highly confident about establishing new partnerships, any agreements reached this year are unlikely to contribute meaningfully to revenue in '26. In addition, the timing and structures of individual deals may influence the balance of upfront cash payments revenue-generating activities and milestone contributions in '27 and beyond.
Speaker #2: The third category relates to sales to revenue conversion. Although commercial activity and customer engagement have clearly improved, conversion into revenue has occurred more slowly than anticipated.
Speaker #2: While a small portion of revenue conversion is expected to shift into '27, approximately 15% of the revenue difference is attributable to lower-than-expected revenue conversion in '26 relative to our previous guidance.
Speaker #2: This portion relates to an acceleration objective, we had set for ourselves, but which has not materialized to the extent originally assumed. As a result of these factors, we're updating our full year '26 guidance and Claire will speak about this in more detail later.
Speaker #2: While this revision is clearly disappointing, it is important to emphasize that it is primarily driven by the timing of partnership planning activities and ongoing partnership milestone revenues, rather than any fundamental change in these opportunities.
Speaker #2: The number and value of partnerships we are pursuing has not changed substantially, however, the conversion of these opportunities will take longer than expected. At the same time, leading commercial indicators in the first half of '26 document encouraging increased activity across our base DNPD business, including strengthening customer engagement and growing net sales.
Speaker #2: We're confirming the positive momentum highlighted over recent quarters, and expect those to pay off from late '26 onwards. In addition, any recovery in the discovery and early development market would provide a further tailwind to growth.
Speaker #2: I will return to these indicators later in the presentation, and discuss them in more detail, but first I would like to turn things over to Claire for a review of the preliminary and unaudited Q2 and first half '26 numbers.
Speaker #3: Thank you, Christian, and good morning and good afternoon to everyone. On slide 5, let me give you an overview of our preliminary and unaudited condensed income statement.
Speaker #3: Group revenues for the second quarter of 2026 are expected to decrease by approximately 16% to 143.5 million euros, and for the first half of 2026 to decrease by 19% to 300.1 million euros, compared to the same period in 2025.
Speaker #3: In DNPD, revenues are expected to decline by approximately 15% to 108.1 million euros in the second quarter, and by 16% to 227.9 million euros for the first six months, compared to the prior period.
Speaker #3: Within GED, revenues for the second quarter of 2026 are expected to decrease by 17% to 35.4 million euros, and in the first half we anticipate a decrease by 29% to 72.3 million euros, compared to the same period in 2025.
Speaker #3: Unfavorable foreign exchange movements are expected to represent an additional headwind to half one revenues of 13 million euros, driven by the US dollar and the British pound.
Speaker #3: Adjusted group EBITDA is expected to amount to minus 20.8 million euros in the second quarter, and to minus 42.7 million euros in the first six months of 2026, compared to the same period in 2025.
Speaker #3: Turning to liquidity and the balance sheet on slide 6, the total liquidity as of June 30, 2026, stood at 465.6 million euros, representing a quarterly increase of 20.8 million euros compared with 444.8 million euros at the end of the first quarter '26.
Speaker #3: The quarter-over-quarter increase was primarily driven by the gross proceeds we received of approximately 100 million dollars, related to Gilead's acquisition of our EVO O equity portfolio company Tubulus, as well as from our recent 116 million euro convertible bond placement.
Speaker #3: First half liquidity further reflects the scheduled debt repayment of approximately 65.8 million euros in line with our liability maturity profile. This planned repayment reduced liquidity during.
Speaker #3: The period, while contributing to a lower debt position. This liquidity position, combined with savings being realized from our successful implementation of the Horizon transformation, positions Evotech to absorb impacts such as the volatility and our strategic partnerships outlook that Christian has described earlier.
Speaker #3: With that, I'll hand back to Christian, who will discuss the progress we're making in our commercial activities and an accelerating revenue conversion across the various components of our business.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Claire. Before discussing the conversion dynamics, we're currently seeing in the business, let us take a step back and look at the three principal creators of revenue streams.
Speaker #2: Within our DNPD segment and their respective conversion cycles, shown on slide 7. In our standalone business, engagements are typically focused on specific scientific services, with straightforward commercial agreements and short delivery timelines.
Speaker #2: As a result, the sales cycle is fast, and the period from order intake to revenue recognition generally short, often around three to six months.
Speaker #2: In the second type of relationship, integrated programs customers engage Evotech across multiple capabilities within a broader research program. These engagements involve more complex contracting, longer delivery periods, and a wider scope of work.
Speaker #2: Consequently, revenue conversion typically occurs over a period of approximately 9 to 24 months. The third category is represent the most comprehensive and complex form of engagement.
Speaker #2: These partnerships are individually structured, often involve extensive negotiation and governance frameworks, and frequently include a combination of research services, milestone opportunities, and long-term collaboration elements.
Speaker #2: As a result, the time from initial commercial engagement to meaningful revenue contribution can range from approximately 12 to 24 months. Although revenue conversion takes longer in the context of strategic partnerships, these relationships create the potential for substantial long-term value, as they typically generate revenue streams over multiple years and can expand significantly over time as programs progress.
Speaker #2: Generally, as you move across these three creators of revenue streams, both the complexity and the time-to-revenue conversion increase. Looking at our sales-to-revenue conversion dynamics, we experiencing in '26, we entered the year expecting improvements in commercial activity to translate into stronger revenue growth, as the year progressed.
Speaker #2: As discussed earlier, approximately 15% of the difference to our previous revenue guidance relates to a conversion ambition that is no longer expected to materialize within '26.
Speaker #2: Also reflecting a more gradual pace of business expansion, while the organization remains focused on executing the Horizon transformation and building the foundation for sustainable long-term growth.
Speaker #2: At the same time. In the base business, including standalone and integrated programs, we have seen encouraging developments in key leading indicators, from customer engagement and proposal activities all the way through net sales.
Speaker #2: During the first half of the year, inbound inquiries increased by approximately 30%, number of proposals increased by more than 45%. In our standalone business, where both sales and revenue conversion cycles are relatively short, we are seeing these positive developments across virtually all leading indicators.
Speaker #2: Customer engagement has increased, proposal activity is growing, orders and net sales are up substantially during the first half of the year. Revenue, however, has not yet started to reflect this momentum.
Speaker #2: Given the relatively short conversion cycle of approximately three to six months, we believe this is largely a question of timing, and expect these trends to translate into revenues over the coming quarters.
Speaker #2: In our integrated program business, we see a similar pattern at the front end of the commercial funnel. Customer engagement remains strong, and proposal activity continues to grow.
Speaker #2: However, due to the greater complexity of these programs, orders and revenues, naturally, lack the trends we are seeing in customer demand. The same principle applies even more strongly in strategic partnerships.
Speaker #2: A highly customized nature of these arrangements mean that proposal activity orders and revenues naturally develop on a longer timeline. Taken together, these indicators provide encouraging evidence that underlying customer demand and commercial activity are strengthening across all three revenue streams.
Speaker #2: The challenge we face in '26 is one of conversion timing. As commercial complexity increases, the time required for these activity to translate into revenue increases as well.
Speaker #2: That said, in the first half of '26, we were already able to shorten the average sales cycle by more than 15%. To start moving opportunities through the pipeline, more efficiently, and supporting faster customer decision-making.
Speaker #2: The commercial indicators give us confidence that the underlying trajectory of the DNPD business is moving in the right direction, and that there is improved customer engagement and strengthening demand from our services.
Speaker #2: On slide 8, let us take a look on the underlying base business of our discovery and preclinical development segment. Including standalone services and integrated programs, excluding large strategic partnerships, to provide a clearer view of the business.
Speaker #2: We saw strong improvement throughout the first half of the year. Net sales increased approximately 28% for the first half, compared with the first half of '25.
Speaker #2: This figure reflects both positive and negative change orders given a realistic giving a realistic picture of customer demand and project activity. As these activities cycle on a shorter frequency compared with strategic partnerships, it is expected that we will begin to see the results of increased activity in these areas by late this year.
Speaker #2: Additionally, proposal value in the first half of '26 increased by more than 20%. Indicating a growing number of attractive value opportunities going forward. Similarly, we are seeing steady positive development of our just Evotech Biologics segment.
Speaker #2: As organizations ranging in size from small biotechs to global biopharma companies, continue to show strong interest in our innovative continuous bioprocessing offerings. Just Evotech Biologics continues to refine its business model to maximize the benefits that customers can accrue from a continuous manufacturing approach in terms of cost, flexibility, and speed of infrastructure development.
Speaker #2: At its base, the CDMO services business is at high capacity, extending its customer base as well as its range of offerings. With the official introduction of the JTRAIN offering in June, customers have the potential to deploy a proprietary continuous manufacturing technology directly within their own facilities on a turnkey basis.
Speaker #2: JTRAIN is designed to enable significantly faster and more cost-effective deployment than traditional manufacturing is functioned. Strongly supporting Evotech's mission of accelerating the path to market for the industry's most innovative products.
Speaker #2: As a key example of this principle, our licensing agreement with Sandoz is progressing well in the wake of the transfer of our Toulouse manufacturing plant to Sandoz, ownership last year.
Speaker #2: The relationship includes development revenues, success-based milestones, and royalties. For Evotech, on biosimilar products in technical and early-stage development. Shown on slide 10 and underlying Evotech's progress toward sustainable growth and profitability, is the horizon phase of our strategic transformation.
Speaker #2: Horizon was announced in March '26 and continues to progress as planned. As a result, we expect total run rate cost savings of about 75 million euros by the end of '27, with 20 to 30% of that amount expected to be realized in '26.
Speaker #2: As announced in March, we expect a savings accrued by Horizon to start becoming apparent in the second half of this year. These cost savings combined with the enhancements in commercial execution I discussed earlier, provide a strong foundation upon which we can erect some of the remaining elements of our strategy including the establishment of high-value strategic partnerships.
Speaker #2: Let me now hand over back to Claire.
Speaker #3: Thank you. On slide 11, I would like to take you through the building blocks of a revised revenue outlook for the remainder of 2026.
Speaker #3: For the full year 2026, we now guide for group revenues of approximately 570 to 610 million euros at incurred foreign exchange rates, and 595 to 635 million at constant exchange rates.
Speaker #3: Adjusted group EBITDA is expected to fall within the range of approximately minus 70 to minus 105 million euros at incurred foreign exchange rates, and minus 60 to minus 90 million euros at constant exchange rates.
Speaker #3: As Christian has said, while we see an improvement in our commercial indicators, and expect to be able to close strategic partnerships before the end of the year, both will contribute only marginally to revenue this year.
Speaker #3: Let me take you through the various movements that we see to help bridge the gap on revenue guidance. When we look at our base DNPD business, we see a decline versus original expectations.
Speaker #3: This is driven by the delayed effect of existing strategic deals as well as the conversion impacts that Christian earlier described which are driven by the construct of our sales portfolio as well as the delay in the achievement of our aspirational target that we had set ourselves.
Speaker #3: Of this decline versus guidance, we would expect around 65% of this to move into 2027, with the only net reduction being the delay in achieving the aspirational conversion target to overall no-loss business.
Speaker #3: If we move to the second bar, this is a significant bucket that we have previously discussed related to the expected new strategic partnerships. As we have previously outlined, the time to secure these deals is extremely long given their nature, and can be influenced by a number of external factors beyond our control within the potential partners operating environment.
Speaker #3: We have seen in recent weeks timeline stretch beyond what was previously anticipated, meaning that any associated revenue recognition will be minimal this year. We are, however, confident in the quality of our pipeline, and the current status of discussions, and as such, would see this bucket being delivered beyond 2026 with the final revenue impact being driven by the individual construct of each deal.
Speaker #3: Moving on to JEB, here we see the base JEB business continuing in line with previous guidance, reiterating the confidence in our technology offering. JEB's strategic partnerships are slightly delayed versus original guidance, but here again we would see that moving into 2027.
Speaker #3: As we are aware, it's not unusual for milestones to slightly shift, which can then result in a knock-on impact over the year-end revenue cutoff point.
Speaker #3: In terms of EBITDA impact, we see a high proportion of the revenue reduction flowing through to EBITDA due to our high fixed cost base, but where we have had the opportunity to impact our costs with an impact already in 2026, this has been reflected in the outlook.
Speaker #3: Let me now hand back over to Christian.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Claire. Let me turn now from our strategy to the team that will deliver it and how strongly it has evolved. Over the past few months, to bolster our commercial conversion, strengthen execution discipline, and continue to drive operational excellence across the company.
Speaker #2: Over the past several months, we have significantly enhanced our management, governance, and leadership team, to support the next phase of Evotech's transformation. We have been introduced to all of these newcomers as they have joined.
Speaker #2: On slide 12, we would like to briefly highlight the key appointments and the talented people we have selected to fill them. In April, we were joined by Ishiq Khan as EVP Global Head, Chief Commercial Officer, since joining Ishiq has made a strong contribution to building the accelerated business activity and enhancing our commercial engagement with customers I described earlier.
Speaker #2: He's working closely with our new Chief Operating Officer, Ingrid Müller, who joined in May this year and who brings more than 20 years of life science leadership experience across operations, strategy, supply, procurement, and R&D integration.
Speaker #2: During the second quarter, we also welcomed our CFO, Claire Hinchelwood, Claire brings a strong track record of reshaping corporate financial operations, and making progress against the backdrop of challenging market conditions.
Speaker #2: Turning to the supervisory board, we have a new chairman, Dieter Weinand, who officially assumes his position in conjunction with our annual general meeting on June 11th.
Speaker #2: This year, along with new supervisory board member Wolfgang Hoffmann. Together, they bring a wealth of international leadership experience spanning the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and healthcare sectors.
Speaker #2: Their deep expertise in commercial execution, innovation, capital markets, and transformation will provide valuable guidance and fresh perspectives as we continue to execute Horizon and to sharpen our focus on execution, strategic partnerships, and profitability.
Speaker #2: Before we move on to Q&A, I would like to summarize where Evotech is today and chart our course toward the sustainable growth and profitability we intend to realize over the next years.
Speaker #2: As we have said before, we expected a challenging first half of '26, and the second quarter and first half preliminary results we have just presented align with that expectation.
Speaker #2: Looking to the second half of the year, our expectations for revenue from strategic partnerships, in particular, the part of our business that is most complex and time-consuming to develop, have shifted recently and have led us to revise our full year '26 outlook.
Speaker #2: While the new outlook is not as robust as we had hoped, as I mentioned earlier, we do see positive leading indicators in the longer term, in spite of a difficult market, especially in the parts of our base CRO business outside strategic partnerships.
Speaker #2: With net sales up 28% year over year in the first half, we expect to see revenue from this increased activity beginning in the final quarter of the year.
Speaker #2: Combined with cost savings from the Horizon transformation that will begin to become apparent later this year, and will grow by the end of '27 to 75 million euros in annual run rate savings, we expect that the combination of high value scientific offerings, improved commercial execution, and disciplined financial management will keep us on track to meet our longer-term goals.
Speaker #2: To that end, in the last several months, we have created a number of new roles and filled them with experienced and accomplished individuals, who will continue to drive Evotech forward.
Speaker #2: Evotech today is in a later stages of a strategic transformation that has taken multiple years to implement. There is still a lot more to do, but I strongly believe we now have the correct mix of focused scientific excellence, streamlined operations, and strong commercial infrastructure to attract, secure, and execute on a robust and diverse stream of business across our DMPG and just Evotech Biologics segment.
Speaker #2: Thank you, and I welcome your questions.
Speaker #1: Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. And the first question comes from Brandon Smith from TD Coven. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Great. Thank you all for taking the questions. Maybe just two quick ones for me. I guess first, from where things stand today, I guess, do you have a goal for kind of the ratio or balance between JEB revenues and DMPD just over the next couple of years?
Speaker #4: Just trying to understand how we should think about kind of the growth of both segments relative to each other over the medium term. And then separately, I appreciate all the color on kind of the recent updates on the partnership pipeline.
Speaker #4: And I know you mentioned no new partnerships are now expected to contribute in the second half. But you said timing and deal structure should be more of a driver next year.
Speaker #4: So I guess, can you just speak a bit more to kind of the health of the partner portfolio? Maybe what gives you confidence that '27 will be better?
Speaker #4: And I guess, if there's anything, just about the nature of the current funnel, whether it's the type of assets or partners that you expect could actually inflect next year specifically, or if it's just kind of a timing consideration.
Speaker #4: Thank you.
Speaker #2: Thank you, Brand. On the first question, we don't have a fixed ratio for JEB and DMPD for the long run. I think it's fair to say that we see growth opportunities in both segments, also fair to say that over the last two, three years, the growth was clearly more on the JEB side.
Speaker #2: We expect this to actually going forward in the long run grow a bit faster than the DMPD segment. But there is no fixed ratio.
Speaker #2: On the health of the partner pipeline, yeah, I can give you a bit of a flavor of that, because we obviously have been in discussions with quite a healthy number of partners since quite a while.
Speaker #2: So the way that you should look about the strategic partner pipeline is that in terms of numbers, we're somewhere between 10 to 20 opportunities here, single opportunities, where we have individual either pharma or biotech companies, usually big pharma, on specific topics, so this could be for example, in the field of obesity, it can be in women's health, it can be quite a few actually in kidney and renal diseases.
Speaker #2: So it's across the larger therapeutic areas, and they all are based on our technology platforms. So for example, our capabilities in molecular glues, our capabilities in cell therapy, iPSC, omics, and so forth.
Speaker #2: When you think about where they are in the lifecycle I would say roughly, roughly maybe 15% are in a very late stage where we would still expect them to close towards the end of the year.
Speaker #2: And that's important, right? While they may close they will not have a material impact on revenues. Hence, we talk here today. Then there's a large chunk, roughly 60%, probably 60%, that is in the early to late stage term sheet discussions.
Speaker #2: So this is also a pretty real conversations. And then we've got the remainder 25% or so in early discussions or in due diligence phase.
Speaker #2: This is how you should think about the funnel.
Speaker #4: Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.
Speaker #1: Then the next question comes from Christian Ehmann from Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Speaker #3: Hello everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I would like to linger a little bit more on the existing partnerships. Obviously, I'm trying to ask about the current state of the partnership with BMS.
Speaker #3: It was very successful in the past, and maybe you can give us more detail on how this might look what's going to look in the future.
Speaker #3: In addition, if I look at the numbers correctly, it looks like a little bit that JEB is actually slowing down in growth. Maybe you can tell me if this is a correct assumption.
Speaker #3: If so, why do you think this might be the case? And attached to that, the question, is JTRAIN then a direct answer to this development?
Speaker #3: Thank you very much.
Speaker #2: Thanks, Christian. Claire will comment on the JEB question in a second. Let me first of all reconfirm our BMS collaboration is a very healthy it has been since '2016.
Speaker #2: I did mention in the last call that we see '26 for BMS for the collaboration as a transition year. We've been harvesting a healthy pipeline in the last years all the way to 2024.
Speaker #2: We have as I mentioned, the last time we've decided to refill the pipeline in '26, also based on investments into our technology platforms in the omics space.
Speaker #2: So here in particular, the proteomics and the transcriptomics screening platform. So there's investments have been made and they will lead to a improvement in or revitalization of the pipeline going forward.
Speaker #2: That's why we also said last time that we expect the BMS collaboration to get back to growth as of next year. And I can confirm this is still the case.
Speaker #2: And I also want to remind you that we've successfully together announced that there is one candidate actually moving into the or moved into the clinic in oncology.
Speaker #2: So all of that is pretty healthy and not of concern.
Speaker #5: Yeah. So maybe if I pick up on the JEB comment. So we still see on the full year if we were to look at the if we look at the JEB business and we exclude the Sandoz contribution to that, and we exclude the DOW contribution, in terms of the underlying growth of that base business, we continue to see growth year on year.
Speaker #5: So no concerns there in terms of the growth. If we look to the future, then JTRAIN that creates an additional opportunity for us. So I would not say it's to replace anything else.
Speaker #5: It's on top of. And in addition to utilizing the capacity that we have in-house, this creates a further revenue and profitability stream for us going forward.
Speaker #3: Thank you. If I may ask a follow-up to the BMS topic. Can we expect a model similar scope to what we've seen in the past?
Speaker #3: I believe at one point it was around 10 to 15 times of revenues.
Speaker #2: Can you further elaborate when you say 10 to 15 times of revenues?
Speaker #3: I mean, at one point, the release to us that the largest key account was around 12%. I assume that was BMS. And if that is true, if this is scope, you can or you expect to be in generated by this partnership in the future.
Speaker #2: I see. Okay. So I think it's certainly going to be in that range. Possibly a bit a notch up compared to that number.
Speaker #3: Okay. Thank you very much.
Speaker #1: Then the next question comes from Charles Weston from RBC. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. If I can kick off with two. The DNPD orders for the base business, you said, was up 28%.
Speaker #4: And various other metrics are up too. Presumably, this was off quite a low base. In the prior period. So could you give us a sense of where those orders are versus normal in inverted commas?
Speaker #2: Well, maybe one step back. If you I don't know whether we can go back to page seven, which gives you a little bit of a picture of the 2026 commercial indicators.
Speaker #2: If you yeah. So that page exactly.
Speaker #3: So I was just referring
Speaker #4: to the standalone business. That's okay. Okay.
Speaker #2: Exactly. So that's the upper part of that graph. But maybe one step back. If you and I just mentioned that we have a new CFO on board, and Claire, and the finance team has done a fantastic job unfolding the business and helping us to better understand the dynamics here.
Speaker #2: This is obviously not something we've been reporting in the past. So great job done by the team to help us understand the underlying dynamics here.
Speaker #2: But if you look at this or if you would look at the same picture let's say two years ago or a year ago, you would see over the three years that this picture three years ago, two years ago has been all red.
Speaker #2: Which means that we have seen a declining trend in prospects, proposals, orders, and revenues across all three levers. So when I go back 2024 in time, this was all red.
Speaker #2: And you start to see in '25 that the standalone is actually starting to turn green with prospects and proposals. Right? And then now you see the orders going up.
Speaker #2: And also the integrated program prospects and proposals. So that's a timing effect. And it also means that we've been consuming some of the backlog of previous years and actually backdates '23 probably when you think about the larger integrated programs and strategic partnerships.
Speaker #2: So the you're right. The 25 first half was certainly on a low level. That's why when I spoke about the commercial indicators, the last couple of quarters, I did mention that we've seen those leading indicators we're leaving them behind.
Speaker #2: We believe that they have been we've been through the trough and the fact that proposals and prospects are going up is just confirming that this seems to be a sustainable trend.
Speaker #5: Yeah. I mean, I think and as you look at the trend that you see in sales, and then as this chart outlines, trend that you see in sales and the trend that you see in revenue, I mean, the two, as we know, are the revenue is lagging the sales depending on the constructs.
Speaker #5: That we see here of the types of deal. There is we are coming off from a sales point of view a lower base in '25, but that didn't necessarily if you look, year on year, revenue '24 to '25, it didn't necessarily show up because of that phasing impact where we had some of the carry forward impact from the year before prior year sales.
Speaker #5: So in every and that's the work that Christian referred to that we've been doing is we've been trying to deconstruct our sales into what are the key elements of the sales?
Speaker #5: What are the drivers for each of those elements? What are the trends that we see? What are as we look forward, what are the leading indicators for each of them?
Speaker #5: And they all have quite they all have different leading indicators and they all have different dynamics. So all of this is the first time that we've been able to deconstruct that and then build it anchored around the indicators that we've shared with you today.
Speaker #5: And we'll continue to do that and we'll continue to refine that. That's something that's clearly it's important for us, but also as we have more transparency, then we'll be able to comment much deeper in terms of how those indicators play out in the future.
Speaker #4: Thanks. Can I move on to the guidance? So the new guidance is has been cut for this year. What is your level of certainty around this?
Speaker #4: What is the level of ambition that's built into it? What amount of wiggle room do you have in order to account for any further slippage over the remaining six months?
Speaker #2: I'm going to take it, Chair.
Speaker #5: Yeah. So I would say that we're confident as we look forward. In the year to go, as I talked about, these three different areas that we've shared today where we've broken down the individual sales drivers of each one, we've done really a deep analysis into each of them.
Speaker #5: We understand what the drivers are. We understand what the assumptions are and the level of likelihoods that those will occur. We've also really considered these cycle timelines that Christian's outlined here.
Speaker #5: So what will convert to revenue in the second half of the year? So I would say that we have a high level of confidence around these numbers.
Speaker #4: Thank you. So it doesn't assume any further material new revenue driving contracts to be signed. It's kind of it's existing it's I think it presumably must be mostly existing revenue existing contracts playing out through their revenue recognition.
Speaker #4: I don't want to put words in your mouth, but is that fair?
Speaker #2: No. And that's what we were the slide that we had the different timelines on. That was what we were trying to demonstrate through that slide.
Speaker #2: And those conversion timelines. So if you think about if you make a sale today, depending on which of those three. That sale falls into that will be an indicator of how much revenue would hit in 2026 and how much would then fall into the subsequent years.
Speaker #2: And that's what we've that's what we've used as we've looked then at the second half forecast. And that's why the middle of the year is an important anchor point because those timelines of conversion in the shortest bucket, that's really the bucket that could influence the remainder of the year for revenue in the back end of the year.
Speaker #4: Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Speaker #3: As a reminder, anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one at this time. The next question comes from Swayamampakula Ramakant from HCW.
Speaker #3: Please go ahead.
Speaker #6: Thank you. This is our cave from HCW, right? Thank you, Christian, and team for doing this call this morning. Just one question from me.
Speaker #6: What share of your profit, not revenue, has historically come from lumpy partner-controlled milestones? And at this point, are you re-resourcing towards recurring work so that you can manage that better?
Speaker #2: That's a tough one because the nature of it is pretty lumpy and it's not a flat line. So I'm checking here with Claire if we have some guidance on the milestone contribution.
Speaker #5: No. It can vary quite significantly over the years. I think there's there's obviously a difference in profile between if you have a milestone payment that drops 100% down to profitability as compared to other revenue streams that are being converted based on our fixed cost absorption levels.
Speaker #5: So I think to give you a number that would say it's X percent for a specific year, that can vary quite dramatically year on year.
Speaker #5: So it would probably it would be I'm not sure it would be particularly helpful. It would need to be on an individual year-by-year basis because of the variability.
Speaker #6: Thank you. Thanks.
Speaker #2: Maybe just one follow-up comment to that. That's also a reason why we're trying to unfold the business here. To give you better understanding that the base business is actually nicely coming around the corner with regard to top line.
Speaker #2: And the implications of the strategic deals. So we will continue to look into that also for future meetings to make sure that there is better visibility on these components.
Speaker #6: Thanks.
Speaker #3: And we have to we have one more follow-up question from Christian Ehman from Beldberg. Please go ahead.
Speaker #4: Hey again. Thank you again. I would like to go back to the JTRA and maybe you can give us some idea about when this might have material impact on your revenues and earnings, and how we should view our models at least, view pricing and potential capacity, for example, over the next years.
Speaker #4: If you're already willing to share this with us. Thank you.
Speaker #2: Yeah. Thanks, Christian, for the question. Consider JTRA from a customer perspective also as a strategic decision, right? It's not something that is basically purchased in a supermarket.
Speaker #2: So those things also take their time. We have an excellent technology. We've got great conversations. We've introduced it to the market recently, as you've seen.
Speaker #2: So the feedback is good, but I would not guide you to have any expectations this year that there's already a signed deal. We just spoke about the time it takes to land strategic partnerships.
Speaker #2: I would see this in a similar time dimension.
Speaker #4: Okay. Thank you.
Speaker #3: Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Sarah Farkey for any closing remarks.
Speaker #5: Thank you, Moritz. With this, we would like to conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation and please feel free to reach out to the investor relations team should you have any further questions.
