Q2 2026 MTN Nigeria Communications PLC Earnings Call

July 31, 2026

Chima Nwaokoma: Participants are currently in listen only mode. During the Q&A section, kindly use the raise hand function to speak or submit your questions through chat. Finally, this call is scheduled for an hour, with that, I'll hand over to Kol.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Participants are currently in listen-only mode. During the Q&A section, kindly use the raise hand function to speak or submit your questions through chat. Finally, this call is scheduled for an hour, with that, I'll hand over to Karl.

Speaker #1: Participants are currently in listen-only mode. During the Q&A section, kindly use the raise-hand function to speak or submit your questions through the chat. The duration of this call is scheduled for an hour, and with that, I'll hand over to Carl.

Speaker #2: Okay, good afternoon everyone. Interesting to see there are already five hands raised. I'm happy to engage with all of you, and thank you for joining us.

Karl Toriola: Okay. Good afternoon, everyone. Interesting to see there are already five hands raised. Good to engage with all of you and thank you for joining us. We appreciate your continued engagement and the opportunity to take you through our H1 performance. As Chima has indicated, our format today is quite straightforward. I'll begin with the operating context and commercial operations. Modupe will walk you through the financial performance, as always, and I'll return at the end to cover our priorities and guidance, then take your questions. With that said, let me get straight to it and begin with the key messages. I'd summarize the key messages as follows. The operating environment has become more stable, supporting stronger execution across the business.

Karl Toriola: Okay. Good afternoon everyone? Interesting to see there are already five hands raised. Good to engage with all of you and thank you for joining us. We appreciate your continued engagement and the opportunity to take you through our H1 performance. As Chima has indicated, our format today is quite straightforward. I'll begin with the operating context and commercial operations. Modupe will walk you through the financial performance, as always, and I'll return at the end to cover our priorities and guidance, then take your questions. With that said, let me get straight to it and begin with the key messages. I'd summarize the key messages as follows. The operating environment has become more stable, supporting stronger execution across the business.

Speaker #2: We appreciate your continued engagement and the opportunity to take you through our H1 performance. As team has indicated, our format today is quite straightforward.

Speaker #2: I'll begin with the operating context and commercial operations. Modu will walk you through the financial performance, as always, and I'll return at the end to cover our priorities and guidance, and we'll take your questions.

Speaker #2: So, with that said, let me get straight to it and begin with the key messages. As to right summarize, the key message is as follows: the operating environment has become more stable, supporting stronger execution across the business.

Speaker #2: The execution is showing up most clearly in data, which means our core growth engine is supported by rising usage intensity, increasing smartphone adoption, and sustained customer demand.

Karl Toriola: The execution is showing up most clearly in data, which means we made that core group engine supported by rising usage intensity, rising smartphone adoption, and sustained customer demand. As data-led growth scales, we are converting it into stronger margins, stronger cash generation, and shareholder returns through operating leverage and disciplined cost management. Our cash generation gives us the capacity to invest for growth, particularly in the home broadband area, with a lot of focus on fiber, extending our long-term runway. Underpinning all of this is a materially stronger balance sheet with zero, and I mean zero foreign currency loans, improving our resilience and financial flexibility. Taken together, the investment case is clear. The business is structurally stronger, more cash generative, more diversified, and in a better position to create sustained value over the medium term. With that, let me now walk you through the operating context.

Speaker #2: As data like growth scales, we're converting it into stronger margins, stronger cash generation, and shareholder returns through operating leverage and disciplined cost management. Our cash generation gives us the capacity to invest for growth, particularly in the home broadband area, with a lot of focus on fiber, extending our long-term runway.

Speaker #2: Underpinning all of this is the materially stronger balance sheet, which is zero, and it means zero foreign currency loans, improving our resilience and financial flexibility.

Speaker #2: So, taken together, the investment case is clear: the business is structurally stronger, more cash generative, more diversified, and in a better position to create sustained value over the medium term.

Speaker #2: With that, let me now walk you through the operating context. The operating environment became more supportive in the first half, particularly with a stronger and more stable Naira, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and higher external reserves.

Karl Toriola: The operating environment became more supportive in the H1, particularly with a stronger and more stable naira, improved foreign exchange liquidity, and higher external reserves. That gave us better visibility and helped us moderate some of our cost pressures. Inflation remained a pressure point, especially from food and energy costs. Overall, the macro backdrop improved compared to the prior period. Economic activity remains resilient and telecoms continues to be an important contributor to growth. While the operating environment is dynamic and probably will always remain dynamic, the improved FX backdrop and more stable conditions support stronger execution, giving us confidence in our medium-term framework. In terms of those key financial highlights, H1 performance remains strong and aligned with our medium-term framework. Service revenue growth moderated in Q2, this should be seen in context.

Speaker #2: that gave us better visibility and helped us moderate some of our cost pressures, inflation remained a pressure point, especially from food and energy costs, but overall the macro backdrop improved compared to the prior period.

Speaker #2: Economic activity remains resilient, and telecoms continues to be an to be an important contributor to growth. So, while the operating environment is dynamic and probably will always remain dynamic, the improved ethics backdrop and more stable conditions support stronger execution, giving us confidence in our medium-term framework.

Speaker #2: In terms of the key financial highlights, H1 performance remains strong, and aligned with our medium-term framework. Service revenue growth moderated in Q2, but this should be seen in context.

Speaker #2: Q2 last year was an exceptionally strong quarter, following the full implementation of the price adjustment, creating a higher base. So, let me just reflect on that.

Karl Toriola: Q2 last year was an exceptionally strong quarter following the full implementation of the price adjustments, creating a higher base. Let me just reflect on that. We'd expressed in Q1, and for those who attended the Capital Markets Day, that Q2 trends will be different due to a very high base of growth in Q2 2025. In Q2 last year, we implemented the full 50% increases that we got and grew much higher than the market. With voice, again, I'm repeating Q2 2025 growing at 53% and data growing at 85.6%, and a total growth of 68%. This was much higher than the overall market growth, and this created a higher base in Q2 2025 to which we're comparing this Q2. This tapered for the rest of the year as we moderated our pricing due to competition.

Speaker #2: We expressed in Q1, and for those who attended the Capital Markets Day, that the Q2 trend will be different due to a very high base of growth in Q2 2025.

Speaker #2: In Q2 last year, we implemented the full 50% increases that we got, and grew much higher than the market. And with voice, again, I'm repeating: Q2 2025, growing at 53%, and data growing at 85.6%, with total growth of 68%.

Speaker #2: This was much higher than the overall market growth, and this created a higher base in Q2 2025 to which we're comparing this Q2.

Speaker #2: This tapered for the rest of the year as we moderated our pricing due to competition. We expect H2 returns to relatively normal competitive situation as the effects of Q2 2025 have flushed out.

Karl Toriola: We expect H2 return to relatively normal competitive situation as the effects of Q2 2025 have flushed out. Growth was also affected to a much lesser extent by the temporary suspension of airtime and data credit services. Importantly, these factors do not change the underlying demand story. Usage continues to grow, smartphone adoption is rising, and our active database is expanding, and we continue to invest in the network to support that demand. We also continue to convert growth into stronger earnings and cash flow generation while maintaining disciplined investment in network and growth platforms. Overall, the results demonstrate a resilient cash generative business. On the back of this, the board has approved an interim dividend of NGN 26 per share, up 73% versus the 2025 final dividend, underscoring our confidence in the business and confidence to shareholder returns. Moving on to connectivity.

Speaker #2: growth was also affected, to a much lesser extent, by the temporary suspension of the airtime and data credit services. Importantly, these factors do not change the underlying demand story.

Speaker #2: Usage continues to grow, smartphone adoption is rising, and our active database is expanding. We continue to invest in the network to support that demand.

Speaker #2: We also continue to convert growth into stronger earnings and cash flow generation, while maintaining disciplined investment in network and growth platforms. Overall, the results demonstrate a resilient, cash-generative business.

Speaker #2: On the back of this, the Board has approved an interim dividend of ₦26 per share, up 73% versus the 2025 final dividend, underscoring our confidence in the business. Moving on to connectivity, connectivity continues to show strong momentum in H1, underpinned by usage and user base growth, with data as the core growth engine.

Karl Toriola: Connectivity continued to show strong momentum in H1, underpinned by the usage and user base growth with data as the core growth engine. We're also seeing better monetization of usage reflected in our stronger blended ARPU, supported by value-led propositions. Voice usage continues to migrate to data charges. Excuse me. Voice remains resilient and a cash generative contributor to our business. Importantly, we continue to invest in network to support traffic, strengthen capacity, and improve customer experience. Overall, our connectivity business remains well-positioned to sustain the data-led growth and support our medium-term revenue ambitions. Focusing on data on the next slide. With connectivity, as I've said, the TNG remains data where demand continues to deepen across our customer base. Data continues to be the driver. It continues to be driven by higher smartphone adoption, rising usage intensity, and deeper digital engagement.

Speaker #2: We're also seeing better monetization of usage, reflected in our stronger blended output, supported by value-led propositions. Voice usage continues to migrate to data channels, excuse me, but voice remains resilient and cash generative, and the cash generative contributor to our business.

Speaker #2: Importantly, we continue to invest in network growth to support traffic, strengthen capacity, and improve customer experience. Overall, our connectivity business remains well positioned to sustain the data-led growth and support our medium-term revenue ambitions.

Speaker #2: Focusing on data, on the next slide, with connectivity as I've said, the key engine remains data, where demand continues to deepen across our customer base.

Speaker #2: Data continues to be the drive, driver, which continues to be driven by higher smartphone adoption, rising usage intensity, and deeper digital engagement. These trends reinforce the long-term data opportunity and support continued data monetization.

Karl Toriola: These trends reinforce the long-term data opportunity and support continued data monetization. As data demand expands, our home broadband represents a natural next growth opportunity for us, which I'll cover in the next slide. Home broadband is a compelling growth opportunity supported by low fixed broadband penetration and rising demand for high speed, reliable connectivity. We are capturing the largest share of the market, with MTN representing around 90% of the fiber connections based on our regulated NCC data. Our approach remains disciplined. FTTH targets high-value locations as well as high home spots to homes connected locations, while 5G-fixed wireless access helps us to expand service ability at scale. The focus is on converting stable households into active connections through faster rollout, better installation, a very disciplined and aggressive sales team, and improved customer experience. We're also leveraging our dedicated sales engines to scale faster and improve penetration.

Speaker #2: As data demand expands, our home broadband represents a natural next growth opportunity for us, which I'll cover in the next slide. Home broadband is a compelling growth opportunity, supported by low fixed broadband penetration and rising demand for high-speed, reliable connectivity.

Speaker #2: We're capturing the largest share of the market with MTN representing around 90% of the fiber connections based on our regulator's MTS data. Our post remains disciplined, FTTH targets high value, locations, as well as high homes passed to homes connected locations, while 5G fixed wireless access helps us to expand serviceability at scale.

Speaker #2: The focus is on converting stable households into active connections through faster rollout, better installation, a very disciplined and aggressive sales team, and improved customer sales engine to scale faster and improve penetration.

Speaker #2: Our focus is on homes connected to homes passed as we expand rapidly. This extends our data growth runway and strengthens our position in Nigeria's fixed connectivity market.

Karl Toriola: Our focus is on homes connected to homespots as we expand rapidly. This extends our data growth runway and strengthens our position in the Nigeria fixed connectivity market. Moving on to FinTech. FinTech continues to build underlying momentum with a strong growth in our core FinTech revenue, solid growth in our active mobile wallets, and customer deposits. This reflects growing customer adoption, a deeper ecosystem engagement, and increasing trust in the platform. Our priorities remain focused on wallet adoption, expanding our rural reach, improving platform reliability, and strengthening customer experience. We also continue to advance licensing and structural separation objectives to support our long-term value creation.

Speaker #2: Moving on to fintech, fintech continues to build underlying momentum with a strong growth in our core fintech revenue, solid growth in our active mobile wallet, and customer deposits.

Speaker #2: This reflects growing customer adoption, a deeper ecosystem engagement, and increasing trust in the platform. Our priorities remain focused on wallet adoption, expanding our rural reach, improving platform reliability, and strengthening customer experience.

Speaker #2: We're also continuing to advance licensing and structural separation objectives to support our long-term value creation. The temporary suspension of airtime and data credit services affected the commission income in Q2.

Karl Toriola: The temporary suspension of airtime and data credit services affected the commission income in Q2, but this service has recommenced and is expected to ramp up progressively through H2, supporting a stronger contribution from our FinTech business over the remainder of the year. With that, I'll hand over to the best CFO, Modupe, for the financial review.

Speaker #2: But this service has recommenced and is expected to ramp up progressively through H2, supporting a stronger contribution from our fintech business over the remainder of the year.

Speaker #2: With that, I'll hand over to the best CFO, Modukwe, for the financial review.

Speaker #1: Yeah, thank you, Kellan. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us. As Kellan highlighted, revenue growth remains strong, and importantly, we contained expense growth below inflation, despite energy-related cost pressures.

Modupe Kadri: Thank you, Karl, and good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us. As Karl highlighted, revenue growth remains strong and importantly, we contained expense growth below inflation, despite energy-related cost pressures. This was supported by a stronger Naira VAT input claims and continued execution of our expense efficiency program. This operating leverage translated into strong EBITDA growth and margin expansion, reinforcing the improved earnings quality of the business. Energy costs remain a key watch item for H2. As disclosed in Q1, assuming an average Lagos ex-depot diesel price of NGN 2,000 in H2, the impact on full-year EBITDA margin could be around 1.8 to 2 percentage points. For context, applicable H1 diesel costs averaged around NGN 1,100 per liter, while the higher Q2 diesel price will flow through to Q3 costs. Current prices are below those peak levels, which should help moderate the impact thereafter.

Speaker #1: This was despite being supported by stronger Naira VAT input claims and continued execution of our expense efficiency program. This operating leverage translated into strong EBITDA growth and margin expansion, reinforcing the improved earnings quality of the business.

Speaker #1: Energy costs remain a key watch item for H2, as disclosed in Q1. Assuming an average legal ex-depot diesel price of $2,000 in H2, the impact on full-year EBITDA margin could be around 1.8 to 2 percentage points.

Speaker #1: For context, applicable H1 diesel costs averaged around $1,100 per liter, while the higher Q2 diesel price will flow through to Q3 costs. Current prices are below those peak levels.

Speaker #1: We should help moderate the impact thereafter. We continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely, and we'll mitigate potential energy cost pressures through efficiency initiatives and disciplined cost control.

Modupe Kadri: We continue to monitor geopolitical developments closely and will mitigate potential energy cost pressures through efficiency initiatives and disciplined cost control. On CapEx, we invested approximately NGN 621 billion, excluding business, to strengthen our network and support growth opportunities in line with our disciplined capital allocation priorities. Our network investment decisions remain driven by traffic growth, capacity utilization, quality of service opportunities, quality of service metrics, and home broadband expansion. We also retain the flexibility to step up investment to capture growth opportunities while sustaining market leadership. The standout feature of the period was strong cash conversion, with free cash flow leveraging by 74%. This demonstrates our ability to convert earnings into cash, strengthening our financial flexibility to fund growth and sustain shareholders' returns. In terms of our capital structure, our balance sheet strengthened further in H1.

Speaker #1: On Capex, we invested approximately ₦621 billion, excluding leases, to strengthen our network and support growth opportunities in line with our disciplined capital allocation priorities.

Speaker #1: Our network investment decisions remain driven by traffic growth, capacity utilization, quality of service opportunity quality of service opportunities, quality of service metrics, and home band broad home broadband expansion.

Speaker #1: We also retain the flexibility to step up investment to capture growth opportunities while sustaining market leadership. The standards feature of the period was strong cash conversion, with free cash flow leveraging by 74%.

Speaker #1: This demonstrates our ability to convert earnings into cash, strengthen our financial flexibility to fund growth, and sustain shareholders' returns. In terms of our capital structure, our balance sheet strengthened further in H1.

Speaker #1: We ended the period in the net cash position with net debt to EBITDA at negative $0.04 times, and interest cover well above our covenant levels.

Modupe Kadri: We ended the period in a net cash position with net debt to EBITDA at -0.04x and interest cover well above our covenant levels. Importantly, we now have no foreign currency loans outstanding, which materially reduces FX-related balance sheet risks and earnings volatility. Our debt profile is also stronger with 100% fixed-rate borrowings, for context, less than 14%, and a larger long-term tenor mix supporting better funding flexibility. This improved financial profile has been recognized as external with Agusto upgrading our long-term rating to triple A and GCR maintaining triple A, both with a stable outlook. Just to recap, we have a stronger de-risked balance sheet that gives us the flexibility to fund growth, manage volatility, and support shareholder returns. With that, I hand back to Karl to discuss our priorities and outlook.

Speaker #1: Importantly, we now have no foreign currency loans outstanding, which materially reduces FX-related balance sheet risks and earnings volatility. Our debt profile is also stronger, with 100% fixed rate borrowings for context, less than 14%, and a larger long-term tenure mix supporting better funding flexibility.

Speaker #1: This improved financial profile has been recognized as external with Agusto, upgrading our long-term rating to AAA and GCR, maintaining AAA both with a stable outlook.

Speaker #1: Just to recap, we have a stronger, de-risked balance sheet that gives us the flexibility to fund growth, manage volatility, and support shareholder returns. With that, I'll hand back to Kell.

Speaker #1: To discuss our priorities and outlook.

Speaker #2: Thank you very much, Modukwe. So looking ahead, our ambition 2030 priorities are focused on growth platforms that will shape the next phase of rising trade sharks.

Karl Toriola: Thank you very much, Modupe. Looking ahead, our Ambition 2025 priorities are focused on growth platforms that will shape the next phase of value creation. Connectivity will remain the foundation, and our focus is to deliver strong data growth to rapidly scale our home broadband and strengthen our enterprise solutions. Across these areas, customer experience is central. We're investing significantly to improve service quality, simplify digital interactions, and deliver a more seamless and intuitive heaven experience, that's what we call it, for our customers. We also see significant opportunities from artificial intelligence, both to improve customer experience and to enhance productivity, personalize offers, and optimize costs and unlock new revenue opportunities. In FinTech, our focus continues to be scaling adoption, improving our platform reliability, and deepening the ecosystem participation while pursuing our structural separation objectives.

Speaker #2: Connectivity will remain the foundation, and our focus is to deliver strong data growth to rapidly scale our home broadband and strengthen our enterprise solutions.

Speaker #2: Across these areas, customer experience is central. We're investing significantly to improve service quality, simplify digital interactions, and deliver a more seamless and intuitive experience.

Speaker #2: That's what we call it for our customers. We also see significant opportunities from artificial intelligence—both to improve customer experience and to enhance productivity, personalize offers, optimize costs, and unlock new revenue opportunities.

Speaker #2: In fintech, our focus continues to be on scaling adoption, improving our platform reliability, and deepening ecosystem participation while pursuing our structural separation objectives.

Speaker #2: Across all priorities, the common theme remains continued disciplined execution. Investing where we see clear demand and strong returns and long-term value creation. Finally, I'll move on to our medium-term guidance guidance.

Karl Toriola: Across all priorities, the common theme remains continued disciplined execution, investing where we see clear demand and strong returns and long-term value creation. Finally, our move to our medium-term guidance. Our medium-term guidance remains unchanged. It is supported by sustained demand, disciplined execution, and a much stronger financial profile. H1 performance gives us the confidence that we're tracking well against all of these targets. We remain focused on sustaining at least low 20% service revenue growth, keeping margins in the mid to high 50s range, and investing with discipline ahead of growth. We remain confident in the long-term opportunity ahead. Nigeria's favorable demographics, rising digital adoption, the growing demand for connectivity and financial services provide a runway for growth. The economy is stable now, and we believe MTN Nigeria is uniquely positioned to capture that opportunity for the benefit of our shareholders.

Speaker #2: Our medium-term guidance remains unchanged. It is supported by sustained demand, disciplined execution, and a much stronger financial profile. H1 performance gives us the confidence that we're tracking well against all of these targets.

Speaker #2: We remain focused on sustaining at least low 20% service revenue growth, keeping margins in the mid- to high-50s range, and investing with discipline ahead of growth.

Speaker #2: We remain confident in the long-term opportunity ahead. Nigeria's favorable demographics, rising digital adoption, and growing demand for connectivity and financial services provide a runway for growth.

Speaker #2: The economy is stable now, and we believe Nigeria is in a—MTN Nigeria is uniquely positioned to capture that opportunity for the benefit of our shareholders.

Speaker #2: With that, thank you for your attention and continued support. Nice to see all the familiar faces. We look forward to the usual Q&A. Sima, I'll hand over to you to orchestrate the Q&A.

Karl Toriola: With that, thank you for the attention and continued support. Nice to see all the familiar faces. We look forward to the usual Q&A. Imma, I'll hand over you to orchestrate the Q&A. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thank you, Kell and Modukwe for taking us through this highlight. We'll move on to Q&A, starting with we'll take the questions in two, starting with Madvendra and Madi.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay, thank you, Karl and Modupe, for taking us through those highlights. We will move on to Q&A. We will take the questions in twos, starting with Mavendra and Modi. Mavendra, over to you.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay, thank you, Karl and Modupe, for taking us through those highlights. We will move on to Q&A. We will take the questions in twos, starting with Mavendra and Modi. Mavendra, over to you.

Speaker #1: So Madvendra, go over to you.

Speaker #3: Yes, hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Can you hear me okay?

[Analyst]: Yes. Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. Can you hear me okay?

[Analyst 1]: Yes. Hi. Thanks a lot for taking my questions. Can you hear me okay?

Speaker #1: Sure.

Chima Nwaokoma: Sure.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Sure.

Karl Toriola: We can hear you.

[Analyst]: Great. Thank you. Three questions from my side. The first is on the Q2 voice and data revenue performance. Can you tell us if that also got impacted because of the XtraTime suspension? Can you quantify that impact, if possible, for Q2? I remember you said at the Q1 call that about 20% of your airtime distribution happens through XtraTime. That's why this question, for context. The second question is on the XtraTime, how it is going now. It is good to know that you have onboarded more vendors for XtraTime.

[Analyst 1]: Great. Thank you. Three questions from my side. The first is on the Q2 voice and data revenue performance. Can you tell us if that also got impacted because of the XtraTime suspension? Can you quantify that impact, if possible, for Q2? I remember you said at the Q1 call that about 20% of your airtime distribution happens through XtraTime. That's why this question, for context. The second question is on the XtraTime, how it is going now. It is good to know that you have onboarded more vendors for XtraTime.

Speaker #3: few questions from my side. The first is on the second quarter voice and data revenue performance. Can you tell us if that also got impacted because of the extra time suspension?

Speaker #3: Can you quantify that impact if possible for second quarter? And I remember you said at the Q1 call that about 20% of your airtime distribution happens through extra time.

Speaker #3: So that's why this question for the context. Then the second question is on the extra time how it's going now. It is good to know that your you have onboarded more vendors for extra time.

Speaker #3: So, if you could talk about the trends in July, and if you could also talk about any changes in the policy around how extra time eligibility is for customers, payment terms, and if that change in policy is also likely to impact the recovery of the extra time-related revenues going forward?

[Analyst]: If you could talk about the trends in July, if you could also talk about any changes in the policy around how XtraTime eligibility is for customers, payment terms, and is that change in policy also likely to impact the recovery of the XtraTime-related revenues going forward? That is the second one. The final one is a clarification on the guidance. You say that guidance is for medium-term, but you are comparing the guidance with the H1's actual numbers. What I wonder is whether we should look at your guidance on a forward-looking basis, medium-term basis, or we compare that with the FY26 numbers basis. Because if the guidance is for FY26, that would imply a significant deceleration in the H2. This is why this clarification will be very helpful. Thank you. These three questions.

[Analyst 1]: If you could talk about the trends in July, if you could also talk about any changes in the policy around how XtraTime eligibility is for customers, payment terms, and is that change in policy also likely to impact the recovery of the XtraTime-related revenues going forward? That is the second one. The final one is a clarification on the guidance. You say that guidance is for medium-term, but you are comparing the guidance with the H1's actual numbers. What I wonder is whether we should look at your guidance on a forward-looking basis, medium-term basis, or we compare that with the FY26 numbers basis. Because if the guidance is for FY26, that would imply a significant deceleration in the H2. This is why this clarification will be very helpful. Thank you. These three questions.

Speaker #3: So that's the second one. And then the final one is a clarification on the guidance. You say that guidance is for medium term, but then you're comparing the guidance with the first half actual numbers.

Speaker #3: What I'm wondering is whether we should look at your guidance on a forward-looking basis, a medium-term basis, or compare that with the full-year 2026 numbers.

Speaker #3: So I want to because if the guidance is for 2026 full year, that would imply a significant deceleration in the second half. So this is why this clarification will be very helpful.

Speaker #3: Thank you. These three questions, yeah.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks. Next is Madi.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks. Next is Modi.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks. Next is Modi.

Speaker #4: Hi, thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. Slightly along the lines of what Madi asked about the guidance, and the target run rate for the service revenue growth.

[Analyst]: Hi. Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. Slightly on lines what Mari asked about the guidance, the target run rate for the service revenue growth, in the H2, given if you are guiding mid-20% and the 13%, what you had in for Q2 is kind of normalized run rate, what would change in the H2 that you move back to mid-20s? I understand there is a bit of XtraTime impact, if you can give more color there. Second question is on the margins. Exiting Q2 with 56.5%, given the oil prices now and diesel prices now, is that the kind of run rate you expect for the H2, or you see there is more room to grow on the margins in the H2? The last one is on the CapEx intensity.

[Analyst 2]: Hi. Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. Slightly on lines what Mari asked about the guidance, the target run rate for the service revenue growth, in the H2, given if you are guiding mid-20% and the 13%, what you had in for Q2 is kind of normalized run rate, what would change in the H2 that you move back to mid-20s? I understand there is a bit of XtraTime impact, if you can give more color there. Second question is on the margins. Exiting Q2 with 56.5%, given the oil prices now and diesel prices now, is that the kind of run rate you expect for the H2, or you see there is more room to grow on the margins in the H2? The last one is on the CapEx intensity.

Speaker #4: In the second half, given if you're guiding mid-20%, then, and of the 13% what you had in for the second quarter is kind of a normalized run rate.

Speaker #4: Then what would change in the second half that you move back to mid-20s? Understand there's a bit of extra time impact, but then again, if you can give more color there.

Speaker #4: Second question is on the margins. Existing Q2 with 56.5%. Given the oil prices now and diesel prices now, is that the kind of run rate you expect for the second half, or do you see there's more room to grow on the margins in the second half?

Speaker #4: And the last one is on the capex intensity. And do you expect that you're going to step up on your capex for the second half, given the performance in the second quarter?

[Analyst]: Do you expect that you are going to step up on your CapEx for the H2, given the performance in the Q2? Thank you.

[Analyst 2]: Do you expect that you are going to step up on your CapEx for the H2, given the performance in the Q2? Thank you.

Speaker #4: Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thank you, Kell. You can take the questions now.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thank you. Karl, you can take these questions now.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thank you. Karl, you can take these questions now.

Speaker #2: Okay, so Madvendra, I guess the first question was Q2 voice and data performance. As I said, the voice and data performance, the comparatives and the optical appearance of a relatively low Q2 in 2026 was as a result of a very high Q2 2025.

Karl Toriola: Okay. Mavendra, I think the first question was Q2 voice and data performance. As I said, the voice and data performance, the comparatives and the optical appearance of a relatively low Q2 in 2026 was as a result of a very high Q2 2025. We actually expanded our value share in that quarter because we implemented a full 50% tariff increases in Q2 2025. The base was very high in Q2. We expect a normal value share distribution to normalize through H2. You mentioned that 20% of airtime distribution came through XtraTime. Yes, that was correct historically. That doesn't mean 20% of our distribution disappeared. It moved to non-lending channels. People actually coughed up cash and probably found other sources to lend, to fund it. I want to emphasize this.

Speaker #2: We actually expanded our value share in that quarter because we implemented a full 50% type increases in quarter 2 2020. So the base was very high in quarter 2.

Speaker #2: We expect the normal share, normal value share distribution, to normalize to H2. You mentioned that 20% of airtime distribution came through extra time. Yes, that was correct historically.

Speaker #2: Now, that doesn't mean 20% of our distribution disappeared. It moved to non-lending channels. People actually coughed up cash and probably found other sources to lend to fund it.

Speaker #2: So I want to emphasize this. The material, optical slowdown of the growth rate in Q2 2026 was because of a very, very high Q2 2025.

Karl Toriola: The material optical slowdown of the growth rate in Q2 2026 was because of a very high Q2 2025. There is some impact of XtraTime, but it is not that significant. You'll see that flush out in Q3, Q4 going forward. You asked about the trends in July. We don't communicate any trends, and you'll get the trends at the end of Q3. You asked if there's a change in policy in terms of lending, et cetera. No, there's none. We're just affected by the suspension of our Airtime Advance services, which we are progressively reinstating. The guidance on the medium term 2026 remains unchanged. That is the blended impact of the entire year in 2026, our guidance. Q1 was high because we only had a small part of the tariff increases.

Speaker #2: There is some impact of extra time, but it is not that significant. And you'll see that flush out in quarter 3, quarter 4 going forward.

Speaker #2: You asked about the trends in July. We don't communicate any trends, and you'll get the trends at the end of quarter three. You asked if there's a change in policy in terms of lending, etc.

Speaker #2: No, there's none. We're just affected by the suspension of our airtime advanced services, which we are progressively reinstating. The guidance on the medium-term 2026 remains unchanged.

Speaker #2: Now, that is the blended impact for the entire year, in 2026 style guidance. Q1 was high because we only had a small part of the type increases.

Speaker #2: Q1 2026 was high because we only had a small part of the type increases implemented in Q1. Q2 saw, as I see now, the flush out of a very high Q2 2025, and we expect normalcy to return to our growth rate. We stick with our guidance.

Karl Toriola: Q1 2026 was high because we only had a small part of the tariff increases implemented in Q1. Q2 saw, like you see now, the flush out of a very high Q2 2025. We expect normalcy to return to our growth rate, and we stick with our guidance. Onwards to Rohit's question, what changes in H2 2026? The basic thing is you don't have this very high base of comparison for 2025 Q2. We get to a normal growth rate, and it is all built in within the guidance. In terms of the margins and CapEx, Modupe will be pleased to answer this question, please.

Speaker #2: Onwards to we'll hit question. What changes in the second half of 2022? The basic thing is you don't have this very high base of comparison for 2025 Q2.

Speaker #2: So we get to a normal growth rate, and it is all built within the guidance. In terms of the margins and capex are hand over multiple to answer this question, please.

Speaker #3: Right, so in terms of the margins, so basically the one of the things that would swing that is diesel costs, which we know. We already know what the price is for Q3R based on the average for Q2.

Modupe Kadri: Right. In terms of the margins, one of the things that would swing that is diesel costs, which we know. We already know what the prices for Q3 are based on the average for Q2. Much heightened, higher than what we experienced in H1. However, if you do recall the guidance we gave in terms of what a NGN 2,000 swing would give in H2, we remain on that. Because the prices are much lesser than that, probably 300 less than those levels in that estimate. I think from now on point, we'll continue to optimize and grow, the efficiencies will continue to look for areas to improve on our efficiencies, and that would continue for the rest of H2. In terms of CapEx, yes, we expect to ramp up our CapEx in H2. Thank you.

Speaker #3: Much heightened, higher than what we experienced in H1. However, if you do recall the guidance we gave in terms of what a 2,000 era swing would give in H2, we remain on that, but because the prices are much less than that—probably 300 less than those levels in that estimate.

Speaker #3: So I think, from my own point, we'll continue to optimize and grow. The efficiencies will continue; we'll look for areas to improve our efficiencies.

Speaker #3: And that would continue for the rest of H2. In terms of capex, yes, we expect to ramp up our capex in H2. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks. Next, Samuel and Bricendra. Samuel, over to you.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks, Modupe and Karl. Next, Samuel and Priscendia. Samuel, over to you.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks, Modupe and Karl. Next, Samuel and Priscendia. Samuel, over to you.

Speaker #4: Thank you very much, Sima. Congratulations to you guys for quite a very interesting number you guys put out there. This was not originally part of my questions.

[Analyst]: Thank you very much, Chima. Congratulations to you guys for quite a very interesting number you guys put out there. This was not originally part of my questions. I'll just try and squeeze it in as much as I can. Piggybacking off what Modupe said about CapEx. Is it implying that there's a possibility you go beyond the guidance you gave us for 2026, or it's still going to remain status quo? Because at the moment, what you've done for CapEx, excluding leases, is around 52% of what we are already expecting in-house. Just trying to get a sense of if we're still on track or we are not. 2, the questions I'm really keen on is, to a large extent, everybody expected that this base effect was going to play out, maybe not to the extent that we did see it.

[Analyst 3]: Thank you very much, Chima. Congratulations to you guys for quite a very interesting number you guys put out there. This was not originally part of my questions. I'll just try and squeeze it in as much as I can. Piggybacking off what Modupe said about CapEx. Is it implying that there's a possibility you go beyond the guidance you gave us for 2026, or it's still going to remain status quo? Because at the moment, what you've done for CapEx, excluding leases, is around 52% of what we are already expecting in-house. Just trying to get a sense of if we're still on track or we are not. 2, the questions I'm really keen on is, to a large extent, everybody expected that this base effect was going to play out, maybe not to the extent that we did see it.

Speaker #4: I was just transcribing as much as I can. So, piggybacking off what Modukwe said about capex—does that imply there's a possibility you could go beyond the guidance you gave us for 2026, or is it going to remain status quo?

Speaker #4: Because at the moment, what you've done for CapEx, excluding leases, is around 52% of what we're already expecting in-house. So we're just trying to get a sense of whether we're still on track or not.

Speaker #4: To the questions I'm really, really keen on is we fill out the extent. I mean, everybody expected that this base effect was going to play out, maybe not to the extent that we did see it, but the thing I noticed was that the net additions for data subscribers in Q2 were quite lower relative to Q1.

[Analyst]: The thing I noticed was that the net additions for data subscribers in Q2 were quite lower relative to Q1, right? I just want you to just explain what that is. To put into perspective, the net additions for Q2 came around 700 as opposed to the 1.8 that was recorded in Q1. Other question is, do you see input claims that contributed to why OpEx growth came behind revenue? Is this going to be a new development going forward or just a one-off? Can you just let us understand the size of this so we understand how this is supposed to support margins going forward. 1 other one, if you guys allow me to squeeze it in again, is the medium-term guidance that you stuck with, is that the new trend?

[Analyst 3]: The thing I noticed was that the net additions for data subscribers in Q2 were quite lower relative to Q1, right? I just want you to just explain what that is. To put into perspective, the net additions for Q2 came around 700 as opposed to the 1.8 that was recorded in Q1. Other question is, do you see input claims that contributed to why OpEx growth came behind revenue? Is this going to be a new development going forward or just a one-off? Can you just let us understand the size of this so we understand how this is supposed to support margins going forward. 1 other one, if you guys allow me to squeeze it in again, is the medium-term guidance that you stuck with, is that the new trend?

Speaker #4: Right? And I just want you to explain what that is, and to put this in perspective, the net additions for Q2 came around 700 as opposed to the 1.8 that was recorded in Q1.

Speaker #4: Other question is, do VAT input claims that contributed to why Opus growth came behind revenue? Is this going to be a new development going forward or just a one-off?

Speaker #4: And can you just let us understand the size of this so we understand how this is supposed to support margins going forward? And then one other one, if you guys allow me to squeeze it in again, is the medium-term guidance that you stuck with.

Speaker #4: Is that the new trend? Because typically we always have that side by side with what single-year guidance would be, but most of what we've had this year so far is the medium-term guidance.

[Analyst]: Typically we always have that side by side with what single-year guidance would be. Most of what we've had this year so far is the medium-term guidance. Is that what we should be using now, or is there's a reason why you're not giving us a single-year guidance? Is there something you guys are seeing that you might just maybe want to give us a hint? That would be all for me for now. Still going to be reaching out to Chima for other ones.

[Analyst 3]: Typically we always have that side by side with what single-year guidance would be. Most of what we've had this year so far is the medium-term guidance. Is that what we should be using now, or is there's a reason why you're not giving us a single-year guidance? Is there something you guys are seeing that you might just maybe want to give us a hint? That would be all for me for now. Still going to be reaching out to Chima for other ones.

Speaker #4: So is that what we should be using now, or is there a reason why you're not giving us the single-year guidance? Is there something you guys have seen that you might just maybe want to give us a hint about?

Speaker #4: Yeah, that would be all for me for now. Still going to be tuned out to Chima for other ones.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks. Odaya, you can go ahead.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks. Udaya, you can go ahead.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks. Udaya, you can go ahead.

Speaker #5: Thanks, Chima. Thanks, Carl. Thanks, Madhubi. Yeah, just one bolt-on question to Samuel's question about the net additions: if you could just talk about the market share dynamics in the second quarter.

[Analyst]: Thanks, Chima. Thanks, Karl. Thanks, Modupe. Just one bolt-on question to Samuel's question about the net additions. If you could just talk about the market share dynamics in the Q2, given that I know Karl has highlighted that it's base effects, but your competitor grew top line more than double what you grew in the quarter. Just if you can tell us if the market share dynamics has changed. The two questions I had from my side was, I just want to understand, is XtraTime now up and running again back how it was before the suspension? I know you mentioned it's a gradual reintroduction, but if you can just give us a little bit of color of how is that now tracking post or when is that now active? The last

[Analyst 4]: Thanks, Chima. Thanks, Karl. Thanks, Modupe. Just one bolt-on question to Samuel's question about the net additions. If you could just talk about the market share dynamics in the Q2, given that I know Karl has highlighted that it's base effects, but your competitor grew top line more than double what you grew in the quarter. Just if you can tell us if the market share dynamics has changed. The two questions I had from my side was, I just want to understand, is XtraTime now up and running again back how it was before the suspension? I know you mentioned it's a gradual reintroduction, but if you can just give us a little bit of color of how is that now tracking post or when is that now active? The last

Speaker #5: Given that you're—I know Carl has highlighted that it's base effects—but your competitor grew top line more than double what you grew in the quarter.

Speaker #5: So just if you can tell us if the market share dynamics has changed. Then the two questions I had from my side was, I just want to understand, is extra time now up and running again, back how it was before the suspension?

Speaker #5: I know you mentioned it's a gradual reintroduction, but if you can just give us a little bit of color on how that is now tracking post, or when is that now active?

Speaker #5: Because the last article I saw was that it was active again from end of June, but I'm not sure if it is fully inactive or fully enacted or if it's just gradual.

[Analyst]: The last article I saw was that it was active again from end of June, but I'm not sure if it is fully enacted or if it's just gradual. I think that's the main questions. I'll leave it for that now. Thanks.

[Analyst 4]: The last article I saw was that it was active again from end of June, but I'm not sure if it is fully enacted or if it's just gradual. I think that's the main questions. I'll leave it for that now. Thanks.

Speaker #5: And then, yeah, I think that's the main questions. I'll leave it at that for now. Thanks.

Speaker #1: Okay. Carl?

Speaker #2: Okay, so there are a few questions there that are really for the capex questions, VAT input claims, and are really for Modukwewe and Iyam.

Modupe Kadri: Okay. Karl.

Karl Toriola: Okay. There's a few questions there that are really for, the CapEx question on the VAT input claims, are really for Modupe and Ayang. Let me first answer the questions. Medium term guidance is the norm, Samuel. We moved to single year guidance because of the volatility of the macro at that point in time, and we didn't know where that was going. Now we've normalized, it's going to remain as medium term guidance. Net additions, I'll allow Ayang to speak to net additions in specific and the data for subscriber net additions. If you want to look at the market dynamics, I really would advise you to look at the full H1 versus the full H2 effect, and then in your mind, maybe normalize a little bit for XtraTime, which is not as big as some of you might think the impact would be.

Speaker #2: But let me first answer the questions. Medium-term guidance is the norm. Samuel, we moved to single-year guidance because of the volatility of the macro at that point in time, and we didn't know where that was going.

Speaker #2: Now we've normalized. It's going to remain as medium-term guidance. Net additions—I mean, if you want to, I'll allow Iyam to speak to net additions specifically and the data.

Speaker #2: Subscribers net additions. But if you want to look at the market dynamics, I really would advise you to look at the full H1 versus the full H2 effect.

Speaker #2: And then, in your mind, maybe normalize a little bit for extra time, which is not as big as some of you might think the impact would be.

Speaker #2: Extra time, we have partially reimplemented, and we're going to face the reimplementation. Of the full base on the extra time over the course of H2.

Karl Toriola: XtraTime, we have partially re-implemented, and we're going to phase the re-implementation of the full base on the XtraTime over the course of H2. To answer your question clearly, it is a gradual reactivation of XtraTime. Modupe over to you, and then maybe Ayang can talk on the net additions that's going on around the ecosystem.

Speaker #2: So to answer your question fairly, it is a gradual reactivation of extra time. So Modukwe, over to you, and then maybe Iyam can talk a little on the net additions that are going on around data.

Speaker #3: Okay, so let me just go before Iyam comes. So, I think in terms of the capex, don't forget that the capex intensity itself is driven by your full-year revenue divided by your capex.

Modupe Kadri: Okay. Let me just go before Ayang. I think in terms of the CapEx, look, don't forget that the CapEx intensity itself is driven by your full year revenue divided by your CapEx. To the extent that we've done the NGN 600 plus that we did in H1, that's piggybacking on the H1 revenue. Now H2's CapEx, the balance of what has been approved by the boards would happen in H2 on a larger revenue base. The expectation is not to go beyond the guidance, but that would, like we always say, not at the expense of opportunities where if that makes economic sense, that's what will have to be pursued. In terms of the VAT inputs, the easiest way to look at it is that this year you would have the base effect, if you wish.

Speaker #3: So, to the extent that we've done the 600-plus that we did in H1, then that's piggybacking on the H1 revenue. Now, H2's capex—the balance of what has been approved by the board—would happen in H2, on a larger revenue base.

Speaker #3: So the expectation is not to go beyond the guidance. But as we have said, we will not pass up opportunities where, if it makes economic sense, then that is what will have to be pursued.

Speaker #3: In terms of the VAT inputs, the easiest way to look at it is that this year you'll have the base effect, if you wish.

Speaker #3: In other words, all expenses or all expenditure that used to attract VAT in 2025 will not attract VAT in 2026. So, once that flushes out and 2026 becomes your benchmark or your floor, then that's how you look at it going forward.

Modupe Kadri: In other words, all expenses or all expenditure that used to have attract VAT in 2025, they will not attract VAT in 2026. Once that flushes out and 2026 becomes your benchmark or your floor, then that's how you look at it going forward. On average, like I said, 7.5% of FY25 expenses, excluding a few items like diesel and VAT exempt, is what flows into that. That's the way you should look at that. I think, Karl, as I answered the question of why no single year guidance, because there's really no outlier. The norm is the medium term guidance, that's why we're sticking with that.

Speaker #3: But on average, like you said, 7.5% of FY26X, FY25 expenses—excluding a few items like diesel, which was VAT-exempt—is what flows into that.

Speaker #3: So that's the way you should look at that. I think Carl has already answered the question of why no single-year guidance, because there's really no outlier or any activity that you should really note. So the norm is the medium-term guidance, and that's what we're sticking with.

Speaker #3: And just for context, with inflation at mid-10s, 15%, 13%, 15%, 14%, 15%, so service revenue at low 10s is still above inflation, and that's the way we are looking at it realistically for the medium term.

Modupe Kadri: Just for context, with inflation at mid-teens, 13%, 14%, 15%, I saw service revenue at low teens is still above inflation. That's the way we are looking at it realistically for the medium term. I think that is about it. Ayham?

Speaker #3: I think that is about it, Iyam.

Speaker #2: Yes, thank you. Thank you, Madhubwe. Look, on the net addition on data, basically what the question is—normally, we give guidance, we forecast, we budget, we put in the efforts and the operations, whether around acquisition or around CVM operations.

Ayham Moussa: Yes. Thank you, Modupe. On the net addition on data, basically what the question is. Normally, we give guidance, we forecast, we budget, we put down the efforts and the operations, whether around acquisition or around CVM operations. Sometimes you might push more for yield, sometimes you might push for number of users. This is why sometimes you can see a quarter difference than the quarter. In general, if you look at the revenue shaping well, take into consideration what Karl said, how much we did last year, passing the full price increase, and how much again we have done this year in Q2 on data subscribers and revenue. We're still committed to the growth we gave and the guidance that we have provided. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Sometimes you might push more for yield, sometimes you might push for number of users. So this is why sometimes you can see a quarter-to-quarter difference.

Speaker #2: But in general, if you look at the revenue shaping well, taking into consideration what Carl said, how much we did last year passing the full price increase, and how much again we have done this year in Q2 on data subscribers and revenue.

Speaker #2: So that's why we are still committed to the growth we gave and the guidance that we have provided. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks. Next is Jonah and Cesar. Please, I would appreciate it if you can keep your questions short. We still have about eight hands up.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks. Next is Jono and Cesar. Please, I will appreciate if we can keep our questions short. We still have about eight hands up, so we'll be able to cover all the questions. Jono, Cesar. Jono first.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay, thanks. Next is Jono and Cesar. Please, I will appreciate if we can keep our questions short. We still have about eight hands up, so we'll be able to cover all the questions. Jono, Cesar. Jono first.

Speaker #1: So, we'll be able to cover all the questions. So, Jonah, Cesar—Jonah first.

Speaker #4: Yeah, thanks. Very much for the opportunity to ask questions. Two for me, please. Could you just maybe talk about the competitive dynamics in during the quarter specifically around pricing and if you've sort of seen any changes, material changes from the competition on pricing, whether you guys have sort of adjusted any pricing across data and voice offers?

[Analyst]: Yeah. Thanks very much for the opportunity to ask questions. Two from me, please. Could you just maybe talk about the competitive dynamics during the quarter, specifically around pricing and if you've sort of seen any material changes from the competition on pricing, whether you guys have sort of adjusted any pricing across data and voice offers? The second question, I just wanted to confirm, Modupe, I think you might have mentioned it, but could you tell me what the actual fuel price was for your Q2 cost base? And then what the Q3 cost in sort of naira per liter would be? Thanks very much.

[Analyst 5]: Yeah. Thanks very much for the opportunity to ask questions. Two from me, please. Could you just maybe talk about the competitive dynamics during the quarter, specifically around pricing and if you've sort of seen any material changes from the competition on pricing, whether you guys have sort of adjusted any pricing across data and voice offers? The second question, I just wanted to confirm, Modupe, I think you might have mentioned it, but could you tell me what the actual fuel price was for your Q2 cost base? And then what the Q3 cost in sort of naira per liter would be? Thanks very much.

Speaker #4: And then the second question, I just wanted to confirm—Madhubwe, I think you might have mentioned it—could you tell me what the actual fuel price was for your Q2 cost base, and then what the Q3 cost in sort of naira per liter would be?

Speaker #4: Thanks very much.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks, Cesar.

Modupe Kadri: Okay, thanks. Cesar.

Speaker #5: Hi, good afternoon. Can you hear me?

[Analyst]: Hi. Good afternoon. Can you hear me?

[Analyst 6]: Hi. Good afternoon. Can you hear me?

Speaker #2: I don't care.

Speaker #5: Thank you so much. I'm going to try my luck one more time. Roughly, gross has fallen off a cliff between Q1 and Q2. The deceleration has been significantly steeper than what we've seen at Airtel Africa.

Modupe Kadri: Loud and clear.

Chima Nwaokoma: Thank you so much. I'm going to try my luck one more time. I think growth has fallen off a cliff between Q1 and Q2. The deceleration has been significantly steeper than what we've seen at Airtel Africa

[Analyst 6]: Thank you so much. I'm going to try my luck one more time. I think growth has fallen off a cliff between Q1 and Q2. The deceleration has been significantly steeper than what we've seen at Airtel Africa

Speaker #5: Can you please help us understand why it happened? I don't think it can be driven by the price increases of 2025. It must have had an impact with the extra time.

[Analyst]: Can you please help us understand why it happened? I don't think it can be driven by the price increases of 2025. It must have had an impact with the XtraTime. Can you please try to help us understand this better? The stock is down 9%, not MTN Nigeria, but MTN Group. It looks to me that the market is looking at the Q2 growth and extrapolating that this will be the growth driven by MTN Nigeria in the next couple of quarters. If you're driving the business with 13% or 15% growth in the next quarters, why are you confident that your midterm revenue growth is going to re-accelerate to low or mid-20s? Usually you've been very conservative on the top-line guidance that you provided to us. It seems now that there's a bit of a misunderstanding with the Q2 numbers.

[Analyst 6]: Can you please help us understand why it happened? I don't think it can be driven by the price increases of 2025. It must have had an impact with the XtraTime. Can you please try to help us understand this better? The stock is down 9%, not MTN Nigeria, but MTN Group. It looks to me that the market is looking at the Q2 growth and extrapolating that this will be the growth driven by MTN Nigeria in the next couple of quarters. If you're driving the business with 13% or 15% growth in the next quarters, why are you confident that your midterm revenue growth is going to re-accelerate to low or mid-20s? Usually you've been very conservative on the top-line guidance that you provided to us. It seems now that there's a bit of a misunderstanding with the Q2 numbers.

Speaker #5: Can you please try to help us understand this better? I mean, the stock is down 9%, not MTN Nigeria, but MTN Group. So it looks to me that the market is looking at the two Q1 and extrapolating that this will be the gross-driven by MTN Nigeria in the next couple of quarters.

Speaker #5: And if you're driving the business with 13 or 15 percent gross in the next quarters, why are you confident that your mid-term revenue gross is going to re-accelerate to lower mid-20s?

Speaker #5: Because usually, you've been very conservative on the top-line guidance that you provided to us, but it seems now that there's a bit of a misunderstanding with the Q2 numbers.

Speaker #5: So any light you can shed on that, I think, would be greatly appreciated by market participants.

[Analyst]: Any light you can shed on that, I think, would be greatly appreciated by market participants.

[Analyst 6]: Any light you can shed on that, I think, would be greatly appreciated by market participants.

Speaker #3: Okay, Carl?

Speaker #2: Okay, I'll first allow Iyam to speak to the competitive dynamics—the question from Bradley on competitive advice around pricing changes. Then, Madhubwe on the fuel prices.

Ayham Moussa: Yes.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Yes.

Karl Toriola: Okay. I'll first allow Ayham to speak to the competitive dynamics, the question from Badi on competitive environment around pricing changes, then Modupe on the fuel prices, and then I will take Cesar's questions.

Speaker #2: And then I will take Cesar's questions.

Speaker #6: Okay, thanks, Carl. On the competitive dynamic on pricing that we saw in Q2, actually, we have hinted before and given many observations in the past period.

Ayham Moussa: Okay. Thanks, Karl. On the competitive dynamic on pricing that we saw in Q2, actually, we have hinted before and give many observations in the past periods. If you simply go to the published results in the market, wherever you see published results in the market by the players, you can look into the average prices and you can measure starting Q4 2024 through Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 in the year 2025 until now. You see that there is push in the market towards offering more value to the customers and highly on data. You see that in the market by players in the market. That's the dynamic that we see today. Our strategy around that is first, we work on optimizing our prices, offering more value to our customers as well. Okay.

Speaker #6: If you simply go to the published results in the market, wherever you see published results in the market by the players, you can look into the average prices, and you can measure starting Q4 2024 through Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 in the year '25.

Speaker #6: And till now, you see that there is a push in the market toward offering more value to the customers, and heavily on data. You see that in the market by players in the market.

Speaker #6: That's the dynamic that we see today. Our strategy around that is, first, we work on optimizing our prices and offering more value to our customers as well.

Speaker #6: Okay, and we also prefer to strike a balance between optimizing and maintaining the best yield we can get, while also offering value to our customers.

Ayham Moussa: We prefer as well to do that balance between optimizing, maintaining the best yield we can get, and also offering the value to customers. That's how we see dynamics in Q2 around pricing and value. Karl, over to you on fuel price and on fuel pricing.

Speaker #6: That's how we see dynamics in Q2 around pricing and value. Carl, over to you.

Speaker #3: Okay, so let me address the question on fuel pricing. The way the fuel pricing works for tower contracts is that they lag one quarter behind.

Karl Toriola: Okay. Let me take the question on fuel pricing. The way the fuel pricing works for our tower contracts is that they lag one quarter behind. Q4 prices govern Q1 prices govern Q2, and Q2 prices governs Q3. When you look at the H1 combined, the average diesel price for H1 was less, it was about 1,100. The Q2 prices that is going to govern Q3 is in the range of less than 1,800. Basically you have a nine months pricing more or less as you can. What happens in Q4 depends on what happens in Q3. Now at the moment, prices are stable, but we don't know what's going to happen in the Gulf for the mid year end time. For now, at least you have those nine months to fix into your models. Thank you.

Modupe Kadri: Okay. Let me take the question on fuel pricing. The way the fuel pricing works for our tower contracts is that they lag one quarter behind. Q4 prices govern Q1 prices govern Q2, and Q2 prices governs Q3. When you look at the H1 combined, the average diesel price for H1 was less, it was about 1,100. The Q2 prices that is going to govern Q3 is in the range of less than 1,800. Basically you have a nine months pricing more or less as you can. What happens in Q4 depends on what happens in Q3. Now at the moment, prices are stable, but we don't know what's going to happen in the Gulf for the mid year end time. For now, at least you have those nine months to fix into your models. Thank you.

Speaker #3: So Q4 prices governed Q1. Q1 prices governed Q2, and Q2 prices govern Q3. So when you look at the H1 combined, the average diesel price for H1 was less, but 1,100, 1,100.

Speaker #3: Q3, Q2 pricing that is going to govern Q3 is in the range of less than 1,800. So that's—so basically, you have a nine-month pricing, more or less, as you can.

Speaker #3: So, what happens in Q4 depends on what happens in Q3. At the moment, prices are stable, but we don't know what's going to happen with the government or the MTN timeline. For now, at least, you have those nine months.

Speaker #3: So fix into your models. Thank you.

Speaker #2: Okay, Cesar, I'll try and answer this question in three ways. First, we maintain our service revenue guidance. We've not changed it. And we always knew there were questions around, "Aren't you being—I don't know if the right word is timid?" But we always knew that this Q2 effect was going to come up because of the base.

Karl Toriola: Okay, Cesar, I'll try and answer this question in three ways. First, we maintain our service revenue guidance. We've not changed it, we always knew, there were questions around aren't you being, I don't know if the right word is timid, we always knew that this Q2 effect was going to come up because of the base. I'll talk to that a little bit later. That's one. Second, in Q2, the first thing that happened, this is not 100% I cannot be 100% factual, of our knowledge in the market, we are always the most compliant. When we receive a written instruction, we implement it within 24 hours. We suspended XtraTime a lot earlier than competition, we started to reinstate later as well. We are still in the process of reinstating.

Speaker #2: And I'll talk to that a little bit later. That's one. Second, in Q2, the first thing that happened—and this is not 100%, I mean, I cannot be 100% factual—but to our knowledge in the market, we are always the most compliant.

Speaker #2: When we receive a written instruction, we implement it within 24 hours. So, we suspended extra time much earlier than the competition, and we also started to reinstate it later as well.

Speaker #2: We are still in the process of reinstating. So, yes, that did have an impact in Q2 on our numbers. Now, I don't want to come across as sounding cheeky, but it's all in the mathematics and the numbers.

Karl Toriola: Yes, that did have an impact in Q2 in our numbers. I don't want to come across as sounding cheeky, but it's all in the mathematics and the numbers. If you look at the Q2 growth, Q1 to Q2 growth of ourselves and look at that of competitors, you get a sense for what is happening there. If you look at H1 growth, 2026 versus us, you also get a sense of what is happening there. Again, I'm not sure you guys on the call, everyone has read what we are saying and the history of Q2 as well as I'm trying to explain it in that we implemented a very aggressive airtime increase which led to extremely high growth in Q2. We're always going to see a much lower effect in this year's Q2.

Speaker #2: If you look at the Q2 growth, Q1 to Q2 growth of ourselves, and look at that of competitors, you get a sense for what is happening there.

Speaker #2: If you look at H1 growth, 2026 versus us, you also get a sense of what is happening there. So, again, I'm not sure everyone on the call has read what we are saying and the history of Q2.

Speaker #2: As well as I'm trying to explain it, in that we implemented a very, very aggressive entire increase, which led to extremely high growth in Q2.

Speaker #2: So we're always going to see a much lower effect in this year's Q2. But we expect that to normalize because as we get to Q3, we are the historical pricing for 2025 has now normalized.

Karl Toriola: We expect that to normalize because as we get to Q3, the historical pricing for 2025 has now normalized and we expect the same growth trajectory to continue as we've seen historically. Some of it, yes, we do definitely had a higher impact of XtraTime because we are more cautious in terms of compliance. One, we are slower to reinstate. That's going to happen in the course of H2. We do think that by and large, consumer behavior has recovered solidly in terms of the consumption of voice and data post the XtraTime effect. We are reinstating, as I've said. A lot of this is really around the noise that is created by an exceptional Q2 last year.

Speaker #2: And we expect the same growth trajectory to continue as we've seen historically. So some of it, yes, we do definitely had a higher impact of extra time because we're more cautious in terms of compliance, one.

Speaker #2: We are slower to reinstate. That's going to happen in the course of H2. We do think that, by and large, consumer behavior has recovered solidly in terms of the consumption of voice and data, post the extra time effect.

Speaker #2: We are reinstating, as I've said. And then, a lot of this is really around the noise that was created by an exceptional Q2 last year.

Speaker #2: And if you look at the quarter one to quarter two growth for 2026, you will see maybe a view of what the normalized situation, or get a sense of what the normalized situation is.

Karl Toriola: If you look at the Q1 to Q2 growth of 2026, you will see maybe a view of what the normalized situation or get a sense of what normalized situation is. Again, we say we maintain our guidance. Thank you.

Speaker #2: And again, we say we maintain our guidance. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Yeah, thanks, Carl. Next is Nadim; after Nadim, we'll take Ebuka. Nadim, over to you.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks, Karl. Next is Nadeem. After Nadeem, we'll take Ebuka. Nadeem, over to you.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks, Karl. Next is Nadeem. After Nadeem, we'll take Ebuka. Nadeem, over to you.

Speaker #4: Good afternoon. Thank you for the opportunity to ask questions. My first question is, I would just like you to expand on the rationale for only partially reimplementing extra time.

[Analyst]: Good afternoon. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. First question from me, just like you to expand on the rationale for only partially reimplementing XtraTime. Do you think it will revert back to the same level it was previously? Because we get the sense that other OTTs in markets have been trying to get into that space. Just if I think about your data growth, just at a high level, it seems like your sub growth is around 9%, and your usage per subscriber is about 15% year-on-year. That gets you to about mid-20s growth. Is that the right way to think about your potential for data growth going forward, or do you expect to get more elasticity out of it? If I may just throw in a very quick one for Modupe.

[Analyst 7]: Good afternoon. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. First question from me, just like you to expand on the rationale for only partially reimplementing XtraTime. Do you think it will revert back to the same level it was previously? Because we get the sense that other OTTs in markets have been trying to get into that space. Just if I think about your data growth, just at a high level, it seems like your sub growth is around 9%, and your usage per subscriber is about 15% year-on-year. That gets you to about mid-20s growth. Is that the right way to think about your potential for data growth going forward, or do you expect to get more elasticity out of it? If I may just throw in a very quick one for Modupe.

Speaker #4: And do you think it will revert back to the same level it was previously? Because we get the sense that other OTTs in markets have been trying to get into that space.

Speaker #4: And then, just if I think about your data growth—just at a high level—it seems like your sub growth is around 9%, and your usage per subscriber is about 15% year-on-year.

Speaker #4: So that gets you to about mid-20s growth. Is that the right way to think about your potential for data growth going forward, or do you expect to get more elasticity out of it?

Speaker #4: If I may just throw in a very quick one from Udupi, it just looks like your BTS lease costs were actually down 3% quarter-on-quarter, if I look at BTS lease costs within direct network costs.

[Analyst]: It just looks like your BTS lease costs were actually down 3% QOQ if I look at BTS lease costs with indirect network costs. We were expecting that to increase a bit because the oil price did go up, or the diesel price did go up rather. Could you explain why that went down, please?

[Analyst 7]: It just looks like your BTS lease costs were actually down 3% QOQ if I look at BTS lease costs with indirect network costs. We were expecting that to increase a bit because the oil price did go up, or the diesel price did go up rather. Could you explain why that went down, please?

Speaker #4: We would have expected that to increase a bit, because oil price did go up—or the diesel price did go up, rather. Could you explain why that went down, please?

Speaker #1: Yeah, thanks. Ebuka.

Modupe Kadri: Yeah, thanks, Ebuka.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Yeah, thanks, Ebuka.

Speaker #5: Good afternoon, gentlemen. Please confirm if you can hear me.

[Analyst]: Good afternoon, gentlemen. Please confirm if you can hear me.

[Analyst 1]: Good afternoon, gentlemen. Please confirm if you can hear me.

Speaker #2: All the time.

Speaker #1: Yes, we can.

Speaker #5: Okay, thank you very much for your time. I have just two questions. So, the first question—just going back to Samuel's question—is on the growth in subscribers.

Modupe Kadri: Yes, we can.

[Analyst]: Okay. Thank you very much for your time. I have just two questions. The first question, just piggying back from Samuel's question, is on the growth in subscriber. If I look at the number of subscribers you've added in the last three months, it's talking about 2.7 million subscribers. If I also compare that to the data subscribers, it's just 700,000 subscribers. That's like 25%. Can you provide what sort of subscriber did you gain mostly in the last three months? If you can also give a directional split on how those subscribers, most of them were gotten, either share taking from other operators or are they people that are returning back to the network and sort of that? That's the first question.

[Analyst 8]: Okay. Thank you very much for your time. I have just two questions. The first question, just piggying back from Samuel's question, is on the growth in subscriber. If I look at the number of subscribers you've added in the last three months, it's talking about 2.7 million subscribers. If I also compare that to the data subscribers, it's just 700,000 subscribers. That's like 25%. Can you provide what sort of subscriber did you gain mostly in the last three months? If you can also give a directional split on how those subscribers, most of them were gotten, either share taking from other operators or are they people that are returning back to the network and sort of that? That's the first question.

Speaker #5: So if I look at the number of subscribers you've added in the last three months, it's talking about 2.7 million subscribers. If I also look and compare that to the data subscribers, it's just about 700,000 subscribers.

Speaker #5: That's like 25%. So, can you provide what sort of subscribers did you get mostly in the last three months? And, if you can, also give a directional aspect on how those subscribers—most of them—were gotten: taken from other operators, or is it people that are returning back to the network, and sort of that?

Speaker #5: So that's the first question. The second question I have is, I would like to get your insight on how you think about AI's impact on your business.

[Analyst]: The second question I have is I would like to get your insight on how you think about AI impact on your business. I don't know if there has been some internal trends you've seen from the AI usage and how that likely impacts your data usage and how you just think about that generally. I'm just trying to go in this direction. I'm just trying to think, is MTN a pickaxe seller in a gold rush of AI? Those are my questions. Thank you.

[Analyst 8]: The second question I have is I would like to get your insight on how you think about AI impact on your business. I don't know if there has been some internal trends you've seen from the AI usage and how that likely impacts your data usage and how you just think about that generally. I'm just trying to go in this direction. I'm just trying to think, is MTN a pickaxe seller in a gold rush of AI? Those are my questions. Thank you.

Speaker #5: So if so I don't know if there has been some internal trend you've seen from the AI usage and how that likely impact your data usage and how you just think about that generally.

Speaker #5: So I'm just trying to go in this direction. I'm just trying to think, is MTN a big pick-and-shovel seller in the gold rush of AI?

Speaker #5: So those are my questions. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks, Carl.

Speaker #2: Thank you. So, let me just look through the questions here. I mean, broadly speaking, the first question from Nadim—nice to hear from you, Nadim.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks, Ebuka.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks, Ebuka.

Karl Toriola: Thank you. Let me just look through the questions here. Broadly speaking, the first question from Nadeem, nice to hear from you, Nadeem. Nice having seen you at the CMD. Will XtraTime return to the same levels? I think on a short to medium-term basis, it will. The financial services industry is changing drastically and radically. On a long-term basis, it's very hard to say where we'll end, but on a short to medium-term basis, it will. We are also intending to participate in whatever the financial services evolution is through our MoMo platform. You guys know we're doing a lot of stuff in that space, including introduction of new technology and ramping up rural acquisition. We think those are good opportunities to participate in the long-term outlook of whatever form of micro lending exists and how that is utilized.

Speaker #2: Nice having seen you at the CMD. Well, extra time returns to the same levels. I think, on a short- to medium-term basis, it will.

Speaker #2: The financial services industry is changing drastically and radically on a long-term basis. It's very hard to say where it will end. But on a short- to medium-term basis, it will.

Speaker #2: But we are also intending to participate in whatever the financial services evolution is for our MoMo platform. You guys know we're doing a lot of stuff in that space, including introduction of new technology.

Speaker #2: And ramping up rural acquisition. So, we think those are good opportunities to participate in the long-term outlook of whatever form of microlending exists and how that is utilized.

Speaker #2: In terms of the I think maybe Modukwe, if you can answer on the lease cost and then we hand over finally to Ayam to answer on the subs versus usage.

Karl Toriola: I think maybe Modupe, if you can answer on the lease cost, and then we hand over finally to Ayham to answer on the subs versus usage, how the subs were acquired, and the AI impact on business.

Speaker #2: How the subs were acquired, and the AI impact on business.

Speaker #1: Okay, so on the BTS cost, for simple reasons: year on year it will be down because of the VAT impact, and then it will also be down quarter on quarter.

Modupe Kadri: Okay. On the BTS cost, simple reasons. Year-on-year, it will be down because of the VAT impact, and then it will also be down quarter on quarter and year-on-year also because of the lag in diesel prices. If you followed my revision, it does even throw out some more information there. In Q1, the average diesel prices were in the region of less than about 1,000, and in Q2, about 1,100 or thereabout. That lag helps in terms of bringing the BTS cost down. Ayham.

Speaker #1: Year on year also because of the lag in diesel prices. So if you followed my I remember she does even throw out some more information there.

Speaker #1: So in Q1, the average diesel prices were in the region of less than about ₦1,000. And then in Q2, about ₦1,100 or thereabouts.

Speaker #1: So that lag helped in terms of bringing the BTS cost down. I am.

Speaker #3: Yeah, thanks, Modukwe. Okay, look, on data—yes, that's true. You have a 9% increase in customers and a 15% increase in users. That's the correct reading. Now, how you look at it—look, demand, if you see in our release, we are confident about the demand.

Ayham Moussa: Yeah. Thanks, Modupe. Okay, look, on data, yes, true. You have 9% increase in customers and 16% users. That's correct reading. How we look at it, look, demand, if you've seen our release, we are confident about the demand. Digital engagement in Nigeria is extremely high, and demand is very strong. As I mentioned, from quarter to quarter, our strategies can change operationally how they execute. Sometimes we can favor more yield

Speaker #3: Digital engagement in Nigeria is extremely high, and demand is very strong. And as I mentioned, from quarter to quarter, our strategies can change operationally in how they execute.

Speaker #3: Sometimes we can favor more yield depending on the season. If the season is a high consumption season—it's not a low season in terms of affordability—we can favor yield. In our season, we can favor acquisition.

Ayham Moussa: To depend on the season. If the season is a high consumption season, it's not low season in terms of affordability, we can favor yield. Our season, we can favor acquisition, we can push more CVM to increase number of users. That varies from season to season. The high level picture you want to maintain is that we are confident about the users' growth, demand growth, and smartphone growth. I just want to touch upon what Karl mentioned at one point. The growth, if you see it, that we did in 2 quarters, if you look at it around from price increase till now, exceed 100%, 110%, that's on data. This is strong if you look at it from where we came before price increase. We are confident about meeting our guidelines and that we have shared. Thank you.

Speaker #3: We can push more CVM to increase the number of users. So that's very different from season to season. The high-level picture you want to maintain is that we are confident about user growth, demand growth, and smartphone growth.

Speaker #3: I just want to touch upon what Carl mentioned, just one point. The growth, if you see it, that we did in two quarters—if you look at it, from the price increase till now—exceeds 100%, 110%. That's on data.

Speaker #3: So this is strong, if you look at it from where we came before the price increase. And we are confident about meeting our guidelines that we have shared.

Speaker #3: Thank you.

Speaker #2: I mean, there was a question around the tweak of artificial, or the impact.

Karl Toriola: There was a question around the trigger of AI or the impact-

Speaker #3: Yeah, sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Speaker #2: So, first of all, now on business, and then on the raw data collection. Maybe you want to address that question last.

Ayham Moussa: Yeah, sorry. Yeah

Karl Toriola: on first on our business and then on the raw data channel. Maybe you want to talk to that.

Speaker #3: Yeah, sorry, sorry, Carl. Yeah. Look, if you remember, for those who attended CMD, there have been large presentations we have done around our strategy on AI, which is we have use cases—internal use cases, external.

Ayham Moussa: Sorry. Very kind. If you recall, for those who attended CMD, there have been large presentations we have done around our strategy on AI, which is we have use cases internal, use cases external. Those two continue on our side. It's still the first, let me say one year since we started those cases. We see promising outcome in terms of the use cases we are looking for or the result expected. If I look at it in the market, AI is part of what drives digital day in the market in terms of the people using digital tools and going on the internet to use the large language model, ChatGPT and the likes, and the content they can generate on AI.

Speaker #3: Those two continue on our side. It's still the first, let me say, one year since we started those cases. We see a promising outcome in terms of the use cases we are looking for or the results expected.

Speaker #3: If I look at it in the market, AI is part of what drives digital day in the market, in terms of people using digital tools.

Speaker #3: I'm going on the internet, you know, to use the large language model ChatGPT and the like, and the content they can generate on AI.

Speaker #2: I mean, there are some studies that say artificial intelligence can multiply data usage by as much as 15-fold, and that's not going to happen overnight.

Karl Toriola: There's some studies that say that artificial intelligence can multiply data usage by as much as 15-fold. That's not going to happen overnight. As adoption increases, I think that is where it's very important our fiber to the home and of course our fixed wireless 5G data strategy to absorb this kind of growth on long-term basis. Yes, it will help the data consumption patterns across the world. We are investing in the most resilient and expandable capacity in our FTTH, and those are the people that will naturally adopt the use of AI. We'll see how the real world versus speculations play out. Thank you.

Speaker #2: But as adoption increases, I think that is where it's very important. Our drivers to performance, of course, are our fixed wireless 5G data strategy. So we can absorb this kind of growth on a long-term basis.

Speaker #2: So yes, it will help. Given the data consumption patterns across the world, we are investing in the most resilient and expandable capacity in our SDTH.

Speaker #2: And those are the people that will naturally adopt the use of AI. We'll see how the real-world versus speculations play out. Thank you.

Speaker #1: Okay, thanks. We'll move on to—oh, we still have Wulan and Odaya again.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks. We'll move on to, we have Mulan and Odaya again.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thanks. We'll move on to, we have Mulan and Odaya again.

Speaker #2: Presenter came back.

Speaker #1: Okay.

Speaker #4: Thank you, guys. Nice seeing you again since the Capital Markets Day. I've got questions only on the fiber side of things. Let's talk a little bit about that, maybe.

Karl Toriola: Prekender came back.

[Analyst]: Okay. Thank you, guys. Nice seeing you again since the Capital Markets Day. I've got questions only on the fiber side of things. Let's talk a little bit about that baby. Last time I think we met, if I remember correctly, you said you winning almost all the market share from the published stats. Is that continuing, firstly? Secondly, are you rolling out fiber mainly in this, what we would call suburbs and gated communities? Or is it also being rolled out in the lower, poorer areas, if I can put it that way? Last question is anyone rolling out any fiber to the poorer areas in Nigeria, in Lagos and various other places? Thank you.

[Analyst 9]: Okay. Thank you, guys. Nice seeing you again since the Capital Markets Day. I've got questions only on the fiber side of things. Let's talk a little bit about that baby. Last time I think we met, if I remember correctly, you said you winning almost all the market share from the published stats. Is that continuing, firstly? Secondly, are you rolling out fiber mainly in this, what we would call suburbs and gated communities? Or is it also being rolled out in the lower, poorer areas, if I can put it that way? Last question is anyone rolling out any fiber to the poorer areas in Nigeria, in Lagos and various other places? Thank you.

Speaker #4: Last time we met, if I remember correctly, you said you're winning almost all the market share from the published stats. Is that continuing, firstly?

Speaker #4: And secondly, are you rolling out fiber mainly in what we would call suburbs and gated communities, or is it also being rolled out in the lower, poorer areas, if I can put it that way?

Speaker #4: And last question is, is anyone rolling out any fiber to the poorer areas in Nigeria—in Lagos and various other places? Thank you.

Speaker #2: We'll give the presenter another shot at it, since we still have time.

Karl Toriola: We'll give Prekender another shot at it.

Speaker #4: Yeah, yeah, sorry, Carl. I think—I don't know if you guys answered my first one on the market share dynamics, considering your competitor growth in Q2.

[Analyst]: Yeah. Sorry, Karl. I don't know if you guys answered my first one on the market share dynamics considering your competitor growth in the quarter Q2. I don't know if you guys did actually answer that question, so I'm just re-asking that one. Just to add on to Cesar's type of question is, the share is down quite a lot, and I think it's because maybe the messaging or the guidance wasn't well understood by the market. Maybe the market missed that Q2 2025 was a high base. Let's look like going forward now. We've come into Q3, and Q3 is going to have Sorry, I'm getting an echo.

[Analyst 10]: Yeah. Sorry, Karl. I don't know if you guys answered my first one on the market share dynamics considering your competitor growth in the quarter Q2. I don't know if you guys did actually answer that question, so I'm just re-asking that one. Just to add on to Cesar's type of question is, the share is down quite a lot, and I think it's because maybe the messaging or the guidance wasn't well understood by the market. Maybe the market missed that Q2 2025 was a high base. Let's look like going forward now. We've come into Q3, and Q3 is going to have Sorry, I'm getting an echo.

Speaker #4: So I don't know if you guys did actually answer that question. So I'm just re-asking that one. And then, you know, just to add on to Cezar's type of question is, I mean, the share is down quite a lot.

Speaker #4: And I think it's because maybe the messaging or the guidance wasn't well understood by the market. And maybe the market missed that Q2 2025 was a high base.

Speaker #4: So, let's look at going forward now. We're coming to Q3, and Q3 is going to have—sorry, I'm hearing an echo.

Speaker #2: Who is in the background there? Let go long. I think you're the one that committed. Can you mute onto this? Your turn, please. Thank you.

Karl Toriola: Who is in the background there, Lebogang, I think you're the one that's on mute there. Can you mute until it's your turn, please? Thank you.

Speaker #4: Okay, cool. Sorry about that. Yeah, so I just wanted to clarify—we're going into Q3. And Q3 has a lot of moving parts, right?

[Analyst]: Okay, cool. Sorry about that. Karl, I just wanted to clarify. We're going into Q3, and Q3 has a lot of moving parts, right? For one, I'm just looking, the base doesn't look that high, and you've had the price increases. That shouldn't be a determining factor. What you do have is you have a much higher diesel cost that's going to be put through because of what happened in Q2. You're going to see that in Q3. That's going to be an impact. You've got the impact of your XtraTime not being fully operational, if I could use that, but more a case of you gradually bringing that in. That might be a bit of a drag.

[Analyst 10]: Okay, cool. Sorry about that. Karl, I just wanted to clarify. We're going into Q3, and Q3 has a lot of moving parts, right? For one, I'm just looking, the base doesn't look that high, and you've had the price increases. That shouldn't be a determining factor. What you do have is you have a much higher diesel cost that's going to be put through because of what happened in Q2. You're going to see that in Q3. That's going to be an impact. You've got the impact of your XtraTime not being fully operational, if I could use that, but more a case of you gradually bringing that in. That might be a bit of a drag.

Speaker #4: For one, I mean, I'm just looking—the base doesn't look that high. And you've had the price increases, so that shouldn't be a determining factor.

Speaker #4: But what you do have is a much higher diesel cost that's going to be passed through because of what happened in Q2.

Speaker #4: You're going to see that in Q3; that's going to be an impact. Then you've got the impact of your extra time not being fully operational, if I could use that phrase, but more a case of you gradually bringing that in.

Speaker #4: So, that might be a bit of a drag. And then the third thing is you've got inflation quite high, and with higher oil prices, consumer inflation is going to spike.

[Analyst]: The third thing is you've got inflation quite high, and with higher oil prices, consumer inflation is going to spike, and you're going to have the consumer being under demand to actually allocate some of their wallet to telco spend. My question with all of that, Karl, is are we going to be in for another shocker when we chat after Q3 and you're going to have sub 20 service revenue growth? Is this quarter as bad as it's going to get for the year? That's what I'm trying to get to because the share price reaction is clear that folks really didn't see this coming.

[Analyst 10]: The third thing is you've got inflation quite high, and with higher oil prices, consumer inflation is going to spike, and you're going to have the consumer being under demand to actually allocate some of their wallet to telco spend. My question with all of that, Karl, is are we going to be in for another shocker when we chat after Q3 and you're going to have sub 20 service revenue growth? Is this quarter as bad as it's going to get for the year? That's what I'm trying to get to because the share price reaction is clear that folks really didn't see this coming.

Speaker #4: And then you're going to have the consumer being under demand to actually allocate some of their wallet to telco spend. My question with all of that, Carl, is, you know, are we going to be in for another shocker when we chat after Q3 and you're going to have sub-20% service revenue growth?

Speaker #4: Or is this quarter as bad as it's going to get for the year? That's what I'm trying to get to, because, I mean, the share price reaction is clear that folks really didn't see this coming.

Speaker #1: We don't have any more hands up.

Speaker #2: Let me speak to Marianne's question. Look, the nature of what telecoms rollout is, you try and implement your rollout where you get the highest uptake.

Chima Nwaokoma: Okay. Thank you. We don't have any more hands up.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Okay. Thank you. We don't have any more hands up.

Karl Toriola: Let me speak to Lorian's question. Look, the nature of all telecoms rollout is you try and implement your rollout in where you get the highest uptick, and we do the same in fiber. It's uptick. When you put down the infrastructure, you want as high an uptick as possible. In as much as we will eventually, just as we did in the wireless technology, get to the low-value areas, it's not the starting point. Now, even within the high and medium-value areas, we focus on two things. One, where we'll get the highest uptick, so preferably there's no competition in that neighborhood. Two, where is it easiest? Easiest means a lot of things to roll out and lowest cost to roll out and execute, which means, is there infrastructure, or do we get right of way to those locations, et cetera.

Speaker #2: And we do the same in fiber—and it's optic. When you put down the infrastructure, you want as high an optic as possible. And as much as we will eventually, just as we did in the wireless technologies, get to the low-value areas, it's not the starting point.

Speaker #2: Now, even within the higher medium-value areas, we focus on two things. One, where we'll get the highest optics—so, preferably, there's no competition in that neighborhood.

Speaker #2: And two, where is it easiest? The easiest means a lot of things—to roll out, lowest cost to roll out and execute, which means: Is the infrastructure there, or do we get right of ways in those locations, et cetera?

Speaker #2: Gated communities are always very interesting because generally, if we are putting in a gated community, there's nobody there. And then we get a very high optics because gated communities are generally high-value, medium to high-value people.

Karl Toriola: Gated communities are always very interesting, because generally, if we are putting a gated community, there's nobody there. Then we get a very high uptick because gated communities are generally medium to high-value people. I hope that answers the question. I will leave Ayham to talk to the market share dynamics last, but let me encourage you to do this once again. Look at what we gained in value share in Q2. Value share. Look at the market, look at what we gained in value share in Q2 2025. That was an anomaly. I can't remember the exact quantum. I know Ayham knows it. He's told me before. It was an anomaly that normalized now. I keep reemphasizing it. Q2 2025 was an absolute anomaly, and we anticipated this strongly, and this change in dynamics completely.

Speaker #2: So I hope that answers the question. I will leave. I am to talk to the market share dynamics last. But let me encourage you to do this once again.

Speaker #2: Look at what we gained in value share in Q2—value share. Look at the market. Look at what we gained in value share in Q2 2025.

Speaker #2: That was an anomaly. I can't remember the exact quantum. I know Amin knows it. He's told me before. It was an anomaly that's normalized now.

Speaker #2: I keep re-emphasizing it: Q2 2025 was an absolute anomaly. We anticipated this run rate and this change in dynamics completely. Plus, on top of that, there's an impact of extra time on it.

Karl Toriola: Plus, on top of that, there's an impact of XtraTime on it, on what has happened there. To answer your question, we don't expect, in a manner of speaking, we maintain our guidance, but Q2 was the shocker, and we always knew this was going to come. It wasn't a shocker for us. We actually said it at the last investor call. We gave subtle indications to this at the last investor call before we saw any numbers of Q2. There's nothing for us in MTN Nigeria's management side that is surprising here. We expect a normalization. If you ask me broadly speaking, if you look at Q4 2025 was a normalized value share shape. Broadly speaking, that's what we broadly speaking returned to. Yes, XtraTime is not fully operational, but we're implementing that in the course of H2.

Speaker #2: On what has happened there. So, to answer your question, we don't expect— in a manner of speaking, we maintain our guidance, but Q2 was the shocker.

Speaker #2: And we always knew this was going to come. It wasn't a shocker for us. We actually said it at the last investor call. We gave thoughtful indications to this at the last investor call before we saw any numbers of Q2.

Speaker #2: So there's nothing for us in MTN Nigeria's management side that is surprising here. We expect normalization. If you ask me, broadly speaking—broadly speaking, if you look at Q4 2025, it was a normalized value share shape.

Speaker #2: Broadly speaking, that's what we returned to. And yes, extra time is not fully operational, but we're implementing that in the course of H2.

Speaker #2: And we're also doing it in a very responsible manner that doesn't expose us to any regulatory or compliance risks. And I'm sure you guys don't want any surprises happening to MTN Nigeria as a result of that.

Karl Toriola: We're also doing it in a very responsible manner that doesn't expose us to any regulatory or compliance risks. I'm sure you guys don't want any shockers happening to MTN Nigeria as a result of the work of that. There's two questions outstanding here. Market share dynamics for Ayham, and then there's a question for Modupe around inflation costs. I mean, look, sorry, around diesel costs, Q3, Q4. Sorry, before I hand over to them, inflation has tapered from previously basing 30% down now to 15%. If you guys remember my rice seller story, the prioritization of telecom spend is such because it makes you more efficient in everything that you do, that we don't expect inflation pressures to impact Nigerian consumer significantly.

Speaker #2: So, there are two questions outstanding here: market share dynamics for IAM, and then there's a question for Modukwe around inflation costs—sorry, around diesel costs for Q3 and Q4.

Speaker #2: Sorry, before I hand over to them. Inflation has tapered from, pre the rebase, 30% down now to 15%. We've always—if you guys remember my rice story, rice seller story—the prioritization of telecom spend is such because it makes you more efficient in everything that you do, that we don't expect inflation pressures to impact Nigerian consumers significantly.

Speaker #2: And you can see that because we implemented a 50% tariff increase and 50% inflation in our pricing, without any moderation in the consumption patterns.

Karl Toriola: You can see that because we implemented a 50% tariff increase, that's 50% inflation in our pricing, without any moderation in the consumption patterns. We're not worried about that. Ayham first, and then Modupe on diesel costs, please.

Speaker #2: So, we are not worried about that. So, IAM first, and then Modukwe on the diesel costs.

Speaker #4: Yeah, thanks, Carl. Okay, look, on the dynamics of the market share, a few points—I will summarize them all together. I mean, they came scattered through the answers.

Ayham Moussa: Yeah. Thanks, Karl. Okay, look, on the dynamics of the market share, few points, I will summarize them all together. They came scattered through the answers. The first one you need to look at is where we are coming from. That's the point we try to repeat always. Just I would like you to get it this way. In around 18 to 19 months, we have grew 110% data and around 57% on voice. That's very big number coming today. That's there. We discussed a bit the dynamics of the value and the pricing in the market, where we are always the highest to increase in the beginning and then the wisest and the more protective of the market value when it comes to when we respond, how we respond. That's second point.

Speaker #4: The first one you need to look at is where we are coming from. That's the point we try to repeat always. I would just like you to get it this way.

Speaker #4: In around 18 to 19 months, we have grown 110% in data and around 57% in voice. Those are very big numbers coming in today. That's fair. Second, we discussed a bit the dynamics of the value and the pricing in the market.

Speaker #4: We were always the highest, who increased in the beginning, and then the wisest and more protective of the market value when it comes to when we respond, how we respond.

Speaker #4: That's the second point. Third point, as Carl mentioned as well, you know, that we were the most aggressive and the first to stop extra time. And actually, the last two—I'll come back to it.

Ayham Moussa: Karl mentioned as well, that we were the most aggressive and the first to stop XtraTime, and actually the last to come back on it. Knowing our market leadership position, so basically you would understand that we have the biggest part of the market. That can be also something you need to think of. In general, those are the governing or the forces that are impacting dynamics of the market share. Going forward, as we said, we continue, we have multiple operational interventions we can do around acquisition, around the value management in the market, CVM operations, and we are still always positive about the demand and the outlook of the guidance that we have given for the rest. Yeah. Thank you.

Speaker #4: And you know, knowing our market leadership position, you would understand that we have the biggest part of the market. So, that can also be something you need to think of.

Speaker #4: So, in general, those are the governing forces or the forces that are impacting the dynamics of the market share. But going forward, as we said, we continue—we have multiple operational interventions we can do around acquisition and around value management in the market, CVM operations.

Speaker #4: And we are still always positive about the demand and the, you know, outlook of the guidance that we have given for the revenue. Yeah, thank you.

Speaker #1: I think that I've already answered the diesel question anyway, but just let me reiterate from a management point of view. This will also flow nicely into the previous questions.

Modupe Kadri: I think I've already answered the diesel question anyway, just let me reiterate from a management point of view, and this also will flow nicely into the previous questions. If we felt strongly about our medium-term guidance, we're not doing a single-year guidance. I'm still saying that, look, as all the explanations have been given, this is exactly what has been modeled in our outlook, as we know. We don't necessarily see the deceleration that you might Is foreseen. In terms of the mix of costs, I've already explained the dynamics on that. Even your diesel costs are worse, slightly above the trends compared to the actual market prices that you see. I think we'll just leave it at that. The jury's out. Then in Q3, we'll see how it plays out.

Speaker #1: If we felt strongly about our medium-term guidance, we'll argue any single-year guidance. So, and I'm still saying that, look, as all the explanations have been given, this is exactly what has been modeled in our outlook as we know.

Speaker #1: So, we don't necessarily see the deceleration that you might be foreseeing. In terms of the mix of costs, I've already explained the dynamics on that.

Speaker #1: So even your diesel costs are worse, slightly above the trends compared to the actual product market prices that you see. So I think we'll just leave it at that.

Speaker #1: Did you raise out? And then in Q3, we'll see how it plays out. But I mean, just from a management point of view, that's the big view of things.

Modupe Kadri: From a management point of view, that's our own upbeat view of things. Anyway, Chima, I don't know what you want to do. Four minutes to go, three hands up.

Speaker #1: Anyway, Shima, I don't know what you want to do. Four minutes to go, three hands up.

Speaker #2: Yeah, I'm sorry, but I think we're out of time. We never shy away from answering all the questions. We're always available for transparent discussions on an equal basis to all shareholders.

Karl Toriola: Yeah.

Modupe Kadri: You're good.

Karl Toriola: I'm sorry, I think we're out of time. We never shy from answering all the questions. We're always available for transparent discussions on an equal basis to all shareholders. I think what this indicates Chima, let me let you decide. Find out, I don't think we can do three more calls.

Speaker #2: But I think what this—2026. Shima, let me let you decide. Final. I don't think we can do three for sure. And—

Speaker #1: Yeah, I think I'm okay, thank you, Carl. So, I'm available to take all the questions. Since we have come to the end of the time, probably we'll give you a closeout speech.

Modupe Kadri: I think so. Thank you, Karl. I'm available to take all the questions. We have come to the end of the time, probably give your closeout speech.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: I think so. Thank you, Karl. I'm available to take all the questions. We have come to the end of the time, probably give your closeout speech.

Speaker #1: And.

Speaker #3: Shima, let me overrule you. Let me overrule.

Karl Toriola: Chima, let me overrule you.

Modupe Kadri: Chima, let me overrule you.

Speaker #1: Shima, Shima, let me overrule you. So, let's take eyes down. I don't think we've heard from him. We'll allow, because we heard from Iran before, so I think it's only fair.

Modupe Kadri: they can send their questions to me via email.

Karl Toriola: Chima, let me overrule you. Let's take Aizan. I don't think we've heard from him. We'll allow, because we heard from Iran before, so I think it's only fair. Let's take Aizan, we won't take Sakara.

Modupe Kadri: Chima, let me overrule you. Let's take Aizan. I don't think we've heard from him. We'll allow, because we heard from Iran before, so I think it's only fair. Let's take Aizan, we won't take Sakara.

Speaker #1: Let's take eyes on what we won't take a second.

Speaker #2: Okay, I agree. I agree. So, last one—can you hear me? Yes, we can.

Modupe Kadri: I agree.

Karl Toriola: I agree.

Karl Toriola: Okay.

Modupe Kadri: I agree. The last one.

Karl Toriola: I agree. The last one.

[Analyst]: Hello. Sorry, can you hear me?

[Analyst 11]: Hello. Sorry, can you hear me?

Speaker #5: Thanks so much for the opportunity to ask a question. I'll be quite brief. I've posted in the chat, I think, the key points that Season Push have pointed out that need clarification. The question is as to whether the Q2 '26 growth is going to be below 20%.

Karl Toriola: Aizan? Yes, we can.

[Analyst]: Thanks so much for the opportunity to ask a question. I'll be quite brief. I've posted in the chat, I think the key point that Caesar and Prash have pointed out that needs clarification is the question as to whether 2H26 growth is going to be below 20%. I've fully taken your comment that 2Q25 was an exceptionally high base. Given that mathematically you could still achieve a full year growth of 20% for revenue, I just want to clarify that since you're maintaining medium-term guidance of revenue of at least 20%, we should expect recovery in Q3 and Q4, i.e. not teens.

[Analyst 11]: Thanks so much for the opportunity to ask a question. I'll be quite brief. I've posted in the chat, I think the key point that Caesar and Prash have pointed out that needs clarification is the question as to whether 2H26 growth is going to be below 20%. I've fully taken your comment that 2Q25 was an exceptionally high base. Given that mathematically you could still achieve a full year growth of 20% for revenue, I just want to clarify that since you're maintaining medium-term guidance of revenue of at least 20%, we should expect recovery in Q3 and Q4, i.e. not teens.

Speaker #5: I've fully taken your comments that Q2 '25 was an exceptionally high base. But given that, mathematically, you could still achieve full-year growth of 20% for revenue, I just want to clarify that since you're maintaining medium-term guidance of revenue of at least 20%, we should expect recovery in Q3 and Q4, i.e., not teens.

Speaker #2: Thank you. You've answered the question yourself. It's really lovely to hear a lady's voice. So, Tracy and the other usual ladies, we haven't seen.

Karl Toriola: Thank you. You've answered the question yourself.

[Analyst]: Okay, great.

[Analyst 11]: Okay, great.

Karl Toriola: It's really lovely to hear a lady's voice. Tracy and the other usual ladies we haven't seen. Thank you for showing up for us. No, you're right. The fact that we've maintained our guidance tells you what we think H2 is going to be. Now, I'll use that opportunity to close out what I've been trying to say. I want to reiterate this, if you have a pen, I'm sure you all do. Please look at 2024 versus 2025 value share growth for MTN Nigeria in Q2. You will see we jumped hugely, and I've created this fact that gives you a base to understand what happened in the prior year. We captured a whole huge amount of the market in Q2 2025, grew value share hugely, and then we moderated as we introduced more competitive pricing.

Speaker #2: So, thank you for showing up for us. No, you're right. And the fact that we've maintained our guidance tells you what we think H2 is going to be.

Speaker #2: Now, I'll use that opportunity to close out what I've been trying to say. And I want to reiterate this: If you have a pen—I'm sure you all do—

Speaker #2: Please look at 2024 versus 2025 value share growth for MTN Nigeria in Q2. You will see we jumped hugely, and I've related this fact.

Speaker #2: That gives you a base to understand what happened in the prior year. So we captured a whole, huge amount of the market in Q2 2025, grew value share hugely, and then we moderated as we introduced more competitive pricing.

Speaker #2: So the rest of the year is now moderated to what I would call the normal practice. That's one. Second thing I would say to you is, look at Q1.

Karl Toriola: The rest of the year now moderated to what I would call the normal practice. That's one. Second thing I would say to you is look at Q1, this is now in this year, 2026, versus Q2 performance. Yes, we didn't do as well as the rest of the market. There was an XtraTime impact. Okay. That we're fixing as we go along. Also take into consideration what has just been said by Russo. We remain confident in our at least 20s guidance going forward. Final thing, which I'd love for you guys to interrogate a bit more, but unfortunately, you didn't, but I'm going to point it out. Please look at our profit after tax margins and compare to the rest of the market. Ultimately, we are trying to create value by increasing our cash flow, increasing our dividends, and protecting and growing our market position.

Speaker #2: This is now in this year, 2026, versus Q2 performance. Yes, we didn't do as well as the rest of the market. There was an extra time impact.

Speaker #2: Okay, but that's something we're fixing as we go along. Also, take into consideration what has just been said by Russo. We remain confident in our at least '20s guidance going forward.

Speaker #2: One final thing, which I'd love for you guys to interrogate a bit more—but unfortunately you didn't, so I'll point it out—is to please look at our profit after tax margins and compare them to the rest of the market.

Speaker #2: Ultimately, we're trying to create value by increasing our cash flow, increasing our dividends, and protecting and growing our market position. I really encourage, and allow Mutua, as I say very well, to tell us what our profit after tax margin was for H1.

Karl Toriola: I really encourage and allow Modupe, as I say farewell, to tell us what our profit after tax margins was for each one. We don't speak to competition, but have a look at that. Thank you very much. Giving Modupe the very last word. Thank you all, and we'll catch up again in Q3, all of these discussions will be behind us.

Speaker #2: We don't speak to competition, but have a look at that. So, thank you very much. Giving Mutua the very last word. Thank you all.

Speaker #2: And we'll catch up again in Q3, and all of these discussions will be behind us.

Speaker #1: Well, thanks, Carl. I think, look, the numbers have been published. At the end of the day, it's all about creating returns to shareholders, free cash flows, and, you know, efficient working capital management.

Modupe Kadri: Well, thanks, Karl. I think, look, the numbers have been published. At the end of the day, it's all about creating return to shareholders, free cash flows, and efficient working capital management. Yes, we're Q2 had its challenges because of the reasons we've given. At the end of the day, everything translates to your PAT margins, and which you could also compare with the competition in the market. I think, like I said, the jury's out. We would, as management, remain upbeat in terms of our medium-term guidance. We can only wish you all a happy evening in terms of enjoying the rest of the evening. No, that's just in case they missed it. The PAT margin was 24%, so I think that's a good number to have. Thank you.

Speaker #1: So yes, Q2, you know, has its challenges because of the reasons we've given. But at the end of the day, everything translates to your PAT margins, which you could also compare with the competition in the market.

Speaker #1: So I think, like I said, the jury is out. We would, as management, we may not beat in terms of medium-term guidance. And we can only wish you all a happy evening.

Speaker #1: In terms of enjoying the rest of the evening, that's just in case. To meet the PAT margin was 24%. So, I think that's a good number to have.

Speaker #1: Thank you.

Speaker #2: Thank you everyone.

Speaker #1: Thanks. Thanks everyone who has joined this call. And for those who were not able to take their questions, we apologize for that. Please feel free to reach me via email.

Chima Nwaokoma: Thank you, everyone.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Thank you, everyone.

Chima Nwaokoma: Thanks, Modupe and Karl. I am. Thanks everyone who has joined this call. For those who were unable to take their questions, we apologize for that. Please feel free to reach me via email with your questions, and we'll get answers back to you. We look forward to seeing you at the next call. Thanks much again. Bye.

Chimaobi Nwaokoma: Thanks, Modupe and Karl, Ayham. Thanks everyone who has joined this call. For those who were unable to take their questions, we apologize for that. Please feel free to reach me via email with your questions, and we'll get answers back to you. We look forward to seeing you at the next call. Thanks much again. Bye.

Speaker #1: With your questions, and we'll get answers back to you. So we look forward to seeing you at the next call. Thanks once again. Bye.

Karl Toriola: Bye. Good evening. Thank you for joining us. Bye.

Modupe Kadri: Bye. Good evening. Thank you for joining us. Bye.

Q2 2026 MTN Nigeria Communications PLC Earnings Call

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