Q2 2019 Earnings Call
Greetings and welcome to the Freshpets second quarter 2019 earnings Conference call.
At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance. During the conference. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad.
As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference over to our host Katie Turner for opening remarks. Thank you you may begin.
Thank you good afternoon and welcome to Freshpets.
Second quarter 2019 earnings conference call and webcast.
On todays call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer, and discuss our Chief Financial Officer, Scott Morris Chief Operating Officer will also be available for Q and <unk>.
Before we begin please remember that during the course of this call management may make forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal Securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward looking statements.
Please refer to the Companys annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward looking statements made today.
Please note on today's call management will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA among others.
Although the company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
Finally, the company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call.
That presentation can be found on the Companys investor website.
Managements commentary will not specifically were I refer to the presentation rather it shows the summary of the results they will discuss today.
Now I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.
Thank you Katie and good afternoon, everyone.
To begin I will provide an overview of our financial highlights and recent business performance and then <expletive> will provide greater detail on our financial results.
Finally, <expletive> Scott and I will be available to answer your questions.
We are very pleased with the sales growth and the scale benefits that our feed the growth plan delivered in the second quarter. We also delivered record growth in household penetration in our largest increase any TV distribution in several years, creating a strong foundation for sustained growth based on these results and our outlook for the balance of the year, we are raising our 2019 guidance, which <expletive> will discuss in more detail.
It is clear that our strategies are working.
At Freshpet, we are attracting a significant number of new consumers and spying inspiring retailers to expand the amount of space, they dedicate to fresh pad and driving significant cost benefits from added scale.
That virtuous cycle is the essence of our feed the growth strategy and we are very pleased with the results thus far.
Our strategy is enabling us to feed more pets and changed the lives of many families that have invited dogs and cats and fresh back into their homes. We firmly believe that we are just scratching the surface of the opportunity to change the pet food category, enabling pet parents to feed their pets in a way that is similar to the way they feed the other members of their family.
As a result of the planned advertising investments outstanding retail presence and meaningful innovation. We've delivered our net sales grew 26% to $60.1 million in Q2 and that puts us on track to exceed our original guidance of 24% growth for the year.
The growth was broad based with Mega channel Nielsen measured consumption up 27% behind 35% growth in grocery 27% growth in mass and 13% growth in big box Pat.
Same store sales velocity grew 17% and accounted for more than 60% of the year over year growth.
Our core dog business, which is the sum of our dog roles roasted meals and fresh from the kitchen menial items and accounts for more than 90% of our business was up 28% in the quarter.
Our small but rapidly growing e-commerce business, which includes curbside programs with our key customers home delivery via services like Instacart and shipped and fresh ecommerce like Amazon fresh in fresh direct was up 101% for the quarter and accounts for 2.2% of our business.
More than 80% of that business went through our in store Fridge network.
Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $1.2 million down $1.3 million versus year ago, largely due to a $4.8 million increase in our advertising investment in part behind a second advertising campaign that positions Freshpet as the next generation of pet food when that is consistent with the values you have for the food you feed the other members of your family.
This advertising began airing at the end of May and is driven very strong interest in freshpet.
This media spend increase is not incremental to our total advertising investment for the year, it's simply increases the amount of spending we placed in the first half to about 80% of our total anticipated spend for the year versus about 70% last year.
We continue to expect to get a return for this investment in the second half of the year as we have experienced historically.
You will recall that we set five strategic objectives for 2019.
Overall, we made good progress against our goals, but we did experience some transitory operational challenges that impacted our financial results for the quarter.
Fortunately we are pleased these challenges are largely behind us and they will not prevent us from exceeding our goals for the year.
Our specific progress against our goals includes first expand the Freshpet consumer franchise.
As a result of our significant marketing investments and distribution gains we drove the largest year over year increase on record in the size of our Freshpet consumer franchise and those consumers bought more than they did a year ago.
Total household penetration was up 18% versus year ago, and the buying rate increased 9%.
Our core dog household penetration was up 27% versus year ago as expected the rapid influx of new buyers limited the core dog buying rate growth, but it was still up 4% versus year ago.
This data shows the effectiveness of our advertising at building, a bigger and more loyal consumer franchise, even in the face of the price increases we took in February .
And there are many more consumers, who look very similar to the consumers, whom we've already attracted so the future growth potential is very robust.
Second strengthen freshpets retail presence.
The strong first quarter momentum with retailers continued into the second quarter driving the largest increase in A. CBD is distribution and several years behind another strong quarter of new stores upgrades and second fridges. We added 361 net new stores in Q2, bringing our year to date increase to 915, I heard 15, net new stores and our total store count to 20414.
We upgraded another 160 stores from small or medium fridges too large bridges in the quarter, bringing our total upgrades year to date to 363.
And we added a second fridge to another 376 stores, bringing our total number of stores with two or more fridges to 747 stores.
HCV distribution grew 3.7 points, our biggest increase in years to 48.2% and Pdps grew 8%.
TDV growth was constrained a bit by some out of stocks, we encountered late in the quarter due to certain supply issues.
It is very clear that retailers are responding to our two years of strong growth and their freshpet is now achieving a level of scale, where it can have a meaningful impact on their total category growth.
This is also evidence that our feed the growth productivity loop, where increased advertising investment drives increased velocity and that drives increased distribution is working as intended.
That is driving our strongest distribution gains in several years in the near term that will dilute our velocity gains temporarily as it takes new stores, some time to become as productive as existing stores.
The longer term it produces strong sustained net sales growth and supports a broader consumer franchise.
We expect to see the strong distribution gains continue throughout the year and deliver our annual targets of 1500 1600 more stores.
An incremental 500 bridge upgrades on top of the 1000, we delivered as part of the plan, we announced last year and 800 stores with two or more fridges. This should result in ACB gains in excess of our long term average ACB distribution growth rate of 7% and TDP growth in excess of 10% during 2019.
Third strengthen adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin.
Adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 48.5% down 290 basis points versus the year ago period.
In combination with our strong Q1, adjusted gross margin our year to date adjusted gross margin is now 49.4% and in line with where we had expected to be at this point, although the sequence was reversed relative to our expectations.
While we continued to execute our adjusted gross margin improvement plan in the quarter and realized most of the benefits. We did experience. Some production challenges later in the quarter.
Recall, we converted our fourth line to a 24 hour three and a half day production in mid May.
In combination with that conversion, we also experienced some quality issues on inbound raw materials that resulted in both short shipments on a few specific SK use and higher scrapping costs related to product that did did not meet our quality standards.
Plus we incurred incremental processing costs and other products that in total hurt our adjusted gross margin in the quarter by approximately 170 basis points and resulted in constrained supply late in the quarter.
That constrain supply resulted in higher out of stocks with our customers for a few weeks in late June and part of July .
Those issues are now largely resolved and we are now shipping to our customers demand.
These issues remind us that producing fresh all natural food is not easy and further reinforces the value of our continued investments in training and building out our technical back bench strength, we believe that our manufacturing expertise is a critical advantage, we have and we fully intend to continue to develop and expand that advantage.
We strive to make it very difficult for a competitor to match our level of mastery of fresh pet food manufacturing.
While some of the higher cost we experienced flowed into July and with us impact a portion of Q3.
We believe we resolved the issues and do not expect them to impact our ability to achieve our target of 50% adjusted gross margin for the year and the 51% adjusted gross margin at the end of Q4 that is because we are continuing to benefit from the margin improvement plan. We put in place this year, which calls for three drivers of margin improvement first price increases second higher margin innovations and third full utilization of our labor in the third and fourth quarter.
Recall, we started our fourth line on a 24 hour schedule in the second quarter.
The price increases are delivering improved margins and we continue to see very little price sensitivity.
Our higher margin innovations are performing well in the market and all the training cost for labor have now been fully absorbed behind our increased production schedule.
We also expect to see a significant gain in SG nay absorption this year.
Increasing absorption by 240 basis points, and a cumulative 500 basis points versus where we ended 2016.
Due to our heavy advertising investment and the Lumpiness of SGN a spending.
We expect to see more of that benefit in the second half of the year.
As a result, SG nay was basically flat versus year ago, and Q2, but when you exclude our heavier media investment in <unk> in the quarter versus year ago, We gained significant leverage in SDMA, improving by 420 basis points.
Year to date, we have gained 370 basis points versus year ago on SGN, a absorption excluding media spending.
We are confident that our plans are on track to deliver our projected goal for both this year and the cumulative total of 700 basis points by 2020.
We also believe that there are additional scale benefits, we can accrue beyond 2020.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.0% down 330 basis points versus year ago.
This can be entirely attributed to the planned increase in media spending which was up 290 basis points versus year ago.
Yes, gene a reduction versus year ago, offset the adjusted gross margin issues in the quarter.
The good news is that the adjusted SGN a improvements are structural and we will continue.
And to reiterate the adjusted gross margin issues are temporary and largely resolved.
Finally, we call our adjusted EBITDA will skew towards the back half of the year inline with our plan and as it has for the past two years due to our significant media investment in the first half of the year.
Number four continue measured development in Canada, and the UK.
Our UK and Canadian businesses made steady progress, we front loaded our advertising investment in each market and have seen growth behind those investments that are consistent with the growth rates that we see behind media investments in the U.S.
We expect that this will encourage retailers to expand their distribution of Freshpet later, this year and next year and thus enable us to invest again next year to drive further drive velocity and encourage additional distribution.
That is the same virtuous cycle that has worked for freshpet in the U.S. and it seems to be working elsewhere.
It will take several laps around that productivity loop to achieve the scale and presence that we have in the U.S., but when it is done we will have created a strong foundation for a highly profitable business in each of those markets and everything we've experienced thus far suggests that both of these markets have the potential to be major contributors to our success. Once we have both the production capacity and distribution to support the development of a larger consumer franchise.
Beth.
Build capability to support accelerated longer term capacity expansion.
And as we have said many times the single biggest limit or to our growth is our ability to add capacity fast enough to keep up with the consumer demand that we know exist for freshpet.
We also believe that our scale and expertise and making fresh pet food is a real competitive advantage and we plan to invest to continually expand that advantage.
That is why we are investing in both facilities and technical talent this year.
In late June we broke ground for our Freshpet kitchens 2.0 on our Bethlehem campus and that project is on track to start up in Q3 of 2020 as planned and within the budgeted cost of plus or minus $100 million.
Additionally, we are making good progress in our search for the site of our next production facility and expect to acquire the necessary land this year and higher site leader in the near future.
If we continue to grow at our current rates that facility would need to be up and running sometime in 2022.
We're also making good progress at adding technical bench strength to support improvements in our existing operations and to support further capacity expansions.
We expect to announce a key addition to our team within the next few weeks Fortunately the rapid growth of Freshpet.
Clear and appealing mission and the career growth potential we offer mixed freshpet, a very attractive place to work.
Even in this tight labor market, we are not having trouble attracting the kinds of talented and motivated team members, who can help us achieve our mission.
So our challenge is not one of attracting talent, but rather one of training in integrating enough employees to keep up with our growth that is where we are focusing our time and energy.
In summary, 2019 is shaping up to be another strong year for Freshpet. Our strong growth is continuing and we are on track to exceed our net sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2019 and meet our longer term 2020 goals.
At the same time, we are fulfilling our mission of providing more pads with fresh all natural foods that enrich their lives and their relationships with their pet parents and doing so in ways that are good for our pets for people and for our planet.
I will now turn it over to <expletive> to discuss our Q2 financials in more detail and our outlook for 2019.
Thank you Billy and good afternoon, everyone as Bill indicated coda to net sales were 60.1 million up 26% versus the year ago period.
As a result, we are raising our net sales guidance from greater than $240 million to greater than 244 million.
This represents net sales growth of 26% for the year and puts us within striking distance of our $300 million go in 2020.
If we delivered 244 million and net sales in 2019, we would have to deliver 23% growth in 2020 to achieve our $300 million go.
We believe that this is very achievable.
Our continued strong growth as a result of the increase investment we made in advertising this year.
Strong improvement in our retail presence and the continued strength of our product innovations.
In particular advertising is the single best biggest driver outgrowth it consistent with last year's plan.
We have committed to invest 11, plus percentage of net sales this year in advertising in the U.S. to continue the strong growth rates, we have generated over the past two years.
This year, we have added a second message to our advertising program that began at the end of May as Bill you mentioned.
One of the benefits benefit so the increased scale. We are generating is that our media budget can now support a second meshes that is equally compelling and they adapt to the Freshpet story.
Our new advertising message, which is run in conjunction with our existing letters campaign is a powerful reminder, to pet parents that as they embrace more natural and fresh food for their families. They need to consider changing the food they feel they feed their pets as well.
The pre marketing test on this advertising campaign was very strong and is powerful complement to our <unk>.
More emotional letters campaign.
As a result of the heavier Q2 spending behind these two messages and the Frontloading all of our media spending in Canada. The UK in order to drive distribution gains. We've now invested 80% of our total media budget for the year.
We believe we have gotten an exceptional return for that investment as evidenced by the record increase in household penetration and related growth and distribution are we expected to drive net sales growth over the balance of the year and into 2020.
In fact, we believe the return we have gotten on our advertising has improved each year since we began our feed the growth strategy.
The price increases we took in quarter. One are now fully in place and could contribute to the expected 200 basis points of net sales growth in the quarter and were seeing very little price sensitivity on the items, where we increased the prices.
We believe this further demonstrates the power of the Freshpet proposition.
It's also important to note that our fastest growing portion of our business is close our highest price per pound item, how fresh from the kitchen line.
Further while it's difficult to quantify the loss of sales precisely from the out of stocks that Billy mentioned is likely the they hurt our sales growth by one to three percentage points in the quarter, but will not impact our ability to exceed our current projected net sales for the year.
Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was 48.5% down 290 basis points from the year ago period.
All three elements of adjusted gross margin improvement plan contributed positively in the quarter, but those actions are more than offset by some production challenges we experienced late in the quarter.
Billy described those challenges and their impact on our adjusted gross margin as well as how they contributed to our out of stocks.
As we continue on our path to this fully developing our technical bench strength, we remain committed to ensuring our pet parents and pets have the best experience possible, which at times will create bumpiness on our way to our 52% adjusted gross margin.
As Bill indicated the production issues lingered into July but are largely behind us. So we are now able to meet customer demand remain confident will average 50% adjusted gross margin for this year and deliver a 51% adjusted gross margin.
In quarter four on our way.
252% of adjusted gross margin in 2020.
Our confidence is supported by the fact that our pricing has delivered the intended merger benefit with very little indication of loss volume our product innovations are performing well and contributing to margin improvements the combination of pricing and mix contributed 60 basis points to adjusted gross margin in the quarter versus quarter, one, bringing the total improvement from pricing and mix this year.
The 140 basis points versus quarter four 2018.
In addition, our growth will better allow us to absorb fixed costs at all of our new labor is now trained and productive.
Adjusted as she ended the quarter was $27.9 million.
46.4% of net sales.
Flat versus the year ago period that includes an increase of more than $4.1 million versus last year's media investment.
Excluding <unk>, excluding media spending, which we will hold roughly constant as a percentage of sales this year versus a year ago as gene a improved by 420 basis points versus year ago.
Recall, our goal is to deliver another 240 basis points divesting a improvement this year, taking us to a total of 500 basis points. Since we began the feed the growth plan at the end of 2016.
Please note that although we have already exceeded our goal of 230 40 basis points during the quarter. The leverage will decrease during the second half due to the timing of variable compensation.
Hey, what the expected decrease we believe we are on track to deliver this year's goal that will position us well to deliver the final 200 basis points improvements, we will need next year.
To deliver a total of 700 basis points divesting a proven by 2020.
This meaningful benefit from scale is an essential part of the virtuous cycles embedded in our feed the growth plan.
Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $1.2 million down 1.3 from the year ago period, driven by the increase in media investment.
Based on our strong net sales growth to date and our current net sales guidance, we are raising our adjusted EBITDA guidance from greater than $28 million greater than $29 million to partially reflect the increased flow through of the higher net sales.
That means we expect to increase adjusted EBITDA this year by 43% versus year ago.
A rate of bottom line growth in excess of our strong topline growth.
Another sign we are beginning to capture the benefits our increasing scale.
Our ability to do this should also be an indicator that incremental sales begin flowing to the bottom line as we approach 2020.
Provide support for the 60 million adjusted EBITDA Bridge, we outlined at the end of quarter one.
So to summarize we are increasing our net sales guidance from greater than $240 million to greater than 244 million and our adjusted EBITDA guidance from greater than $28 million to greater than 29 million.
We drew 28, and a half million on our credit facility year to date to cover the normal seasonal variations to our cash flow funding of working capital and investments in our kitchen 2.0.
We invested 11 million of capital against 2.0, this year and our total spending on that project today, just 13 million.
We continue to expect to produce positive annual cash flow from operations.
We finalized our new credit agreement early in the quarter, the new credit agreement results in lower cost and has a capacity of the base agreement and its accordion feature to meet all of our capital needs through 2024.
In conclusion, we expect 2019 to be another strong year for Freshpet. Our continued growth is delivering numerous strategic and financial benefits they'll help us realize our financial goals and will also enable us to fill out in the mission of changing the way people feed their pets.
To grow a company and change in industry is a once in a lifetime opportunity that our team relishes.
And we got to do that while helping people feed their pets fresh and natural food.
That concludes our overview, we will now be glad to take your questions.
Operator.
Thank you.
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Our first question comes from.
Bill Chappell with Suntrust Robinson Humphrey Please state your question.
Thanks, Good afternoon.
Hey, Bill.
The.
Couple well I guess, one housekeeping what was the percentage of marketing spend in the first half of last year versus the 80% spent this year.
Yeah last year, we spent 16 of 22 <unk>, Yeah, We said 70 and 70% yeah, Josh so.
And.
The.
Trying to understand on the gross margin hit in the quarter, and then kind of coupling that with your raised EBITDA guidance for the year.
Yeah, I mean, I understand it was out of stocks, but do you expect to make up those sales or you just had more cushion to the full year EBITDA number that now you know that you're not be able to layer through all of that cushion as we go to the back half.
So there are a couple of pieces and what you just described so let me first start with the the out of stocks at the end of the at the end of the quarter as <expletive> said, we launched we believe we lost somewhere between one to three points of sale. We did have a very strong July so we feel very good about the factory our ability to recoup what we might have lost on the topline and that's part of getting to the top line guidance in terms of the I think the adjusted gross margin as we said in the script we had a.
Probably a little bit better expect than expected first first quarter and not quite as strong.
Second quarter, but on balance we are about where we thought we would be at the halfway point of the year and so and as we said we think we pretty much have these issues behind this will be a little bit of a tail into July is we've seen a little bit of that but we believe that we have more than enough room. Then to then deliver on the raised guidance.
That goes with the higher net sales target.
So does that help.
I I mean, just to understand them and it seems like the out of stocks are kind of lost profit, but can somebody.
Pet owner bought something else or somewhere else I mean, I'm, just trying understand how it pops back in the next quarter.
Well so first of all the out of stocks is a it starts at the you know we short shipped a little bit. So we're capturing some of that back obviously, if the consumer had any pantry inventory. They drew it down or had to go somewhere else to go buy the product that's where they were very loyal to it it's hard to say exactly how that how big that was that's why we gave a range of 1% to 3%. We can tell you is we had a very strong July .
So we feel like we got back and we feel very comfortable with where the run rate is today getting to the 244 and sales. If we hadn't had the out of stocks will be higher than that I can't tell you its not that precise but we feel very good about the 244 that we gave guidance on.
Got it and then just my other question is help me is the first time, we really heard about out of stocks and so as I look with your growth.
<unk> going to accelerate and the increased capacity just coming online I mean, how do I get comfortable that you have a a soft landing that we don't have the growth or demand doesn't outstrip supply over the next couple of quarters.
Yeah. So first of all you need to know that we are shipping to demand today with customer service, it's in a high nineties.
So we see that the issues that we had at the end of the quarter in the very beginning in the second and the third quarter.
We're now back to the customer service levels that our customers have come to expect from us and we tend to have a very high standard for that the second piece is that we did say that we will be taking our final line at 24, seven from 24, three and a half at the end of this year. So between now and the time that we bring on our new facility in the third quarter next year, we have that one more incremental capacity that becomes available to us. We also are working pretty diligently to restore our previous turnaround time on our line fundamentally the more up time that you have on your equipment. The faster you turn around the more productivity you have and we have to get about 5%.
Back that we had lost and we feel very good about our ability to get there. If we do those things that gets us back in I guess has the capacity to meet our needs before kitchens 2.0 come on next year in the third quarter, but you should also know that we don't ever live would just plan a we're working on a plan being case, we have demand that outstrips, our capacity and we will not be caught short.
Got it thanks, so much.
Yes, Thank you well thanks Bill.
Our next question comes from Brian Holland with D.A. Davidson. Please state your question.
Yes, thanks, good afternoon.
Starting with just going back to the EBITDA outlook here for a second.
Is it fair to say just quick quick quick back of the envelope math, which is admittedly dangerous for me I sort of get to maybe like 4 million more that you spent above plan, maybe or the mix shift into Q2 is that is that fair or is that too high.
Yes, it's about 2.9 million.
That shifted to the back half of the from the front half of the year from front to back the front.
From the from the from the back half of the it.
In EBITDA. It went it goes going into the back half of the year another $2.9 million right. We had a 20 $929 million plan. We spent 80% of it early on before we had this new media plan, we were thinking of spending.
70% of it but the the new media was kind of exciting and we decided to spend an additional $2.9 million in the quarter.
Okay. So <unk> at $2.9 million a pull forward right. So if I looked at the EBITDA relative to consensus shortfall you missed EBITDA by about 2 million you raised it by a million, but 3 million moved into the second quarter and you got the fastest household penetration bump that you you've had on record so you're going to have confidence going in the backup in the top line and then the media spend it is just a $3 billion shift and that's why that's where we get the EBITDA bump so.
That's the first part the second part is just to make sure that we're clear because it obviously optically as bill implied it looks strange that you would miss on gross margin to the magnitude that you didnt still take it up really this is as much about you're comfortable with the gross margin, but really what it is as you've had a a mix shift in EBITDA and you've got a big revenue bump on it therefore that theres the confidence is that fair to frame it that way.
Sure that's absolutely right, Yeah, and I would say going back to your first point Brian .
The fact that we are exiting the second quarter with an incredibly large consumer franchise, which as you know as that the high repurchase rate and then they go through the process of becoming loyal users that gives us a lot of encouragement about the topline part of the equation and so the Miss on the EBITDA is a there is a marketing spending mess.
More than anything else and as I said to bill the gross margin, we're about where we thought we'd be at the midpoint of the year just came in the reverse order that we thought it would come.
Okay. Thanks, that's helpful. Just curious on the distribution front, obviously continued nice gains, but you look at some of the you look at the landscape even just the conventional grocery which is where is the strongest growth outside of E. Commerce is coming from.
A lot of the sort of legacy core dry kibble brands really struggling obviously blue Buffalo moving into Walmart has been a catalyst as well, but what are retailers, telling you about their ability to maybe further accelerate.
Your pace of distribution growth as as you kind of shift the real estate in that aisle towards faster growing sub segments. Certainly you being one of them. I mean is that something that can accelerate even faster as we look out I know obviously there is a capacity constraint on your answer to some extent, but as we look out over the next two or three years can you continue to like the 2019 pace of distribution gains or accelerate that going forward do you have any line of sight, just kind of a conversational it.
Hey, Brian Scott, So so pretty much what we're seeing and what we're planning is to kind of continue that cadence of 15 600 stores a year from a new distribution standpoint.
And every conversation that we continue to have with retailers.
Demonstrates that their interest in the proposition in the concept and I think every quarter that goes by when they see the growth and then now start to see a little bit of scale behind it.
I think it positively predisposed to them to doing more and so there is there is obviously the new store piece, which gives us HCV, but the second chiller piece and the upgrades are really an important component of that and we think over time, that's going to be a significant amount of kind of our HCV or revenue growth component overtime that will kind of continue continue to contribute more and more obviously the advertising is the anchor tenant on our growth the advertising communications media.
But that that piece from an HCV standpoint, and depth of distribution as I like to refer to it with retailers will continue to kind of climb up and contribute more over time. So I think that we're we're seeing a lot of people that are really interested in growing up there the fresh cut business.
Thanks, Scott last one from me.
Yeah, just curious what you heard from your customer as consumers.
About some of the recent press around Green free diets and links to heart disease I as a not only an analyst as you know I'm also a client.
Our vet knows what we feed our dog.
And as you know made the same comment today similar to what we heard so even though you weren't mentioned in the New York Times article I'm, just curious sort of what you're hearing from consumers as far as any blow back any concern and sort of what your view is about some of that that research that's but surface in the past couple of months.
So obviously, it's always secretly concerning from an industry standpoint, I mean, the fortunate thing is we've done internal testing.
Prior to the F.D.A. his most recent release.
We were mentioned once and 560 complaints and it was a very tertiary comment passing comment and it wasn't even a grain free product.
So really no mention at all a freshpet. There were 16 brands that were mentioned it tends to be from a consumer standpoint, they are focusing a little bit more on the brands that were mentioned. This is just my kind of take from what's going on the industry.
Secondarily, there thinking grain free because it's not all green free and I think what vets are kind of telling their clients slowly over time is we're not exactly sure and to be safe maybe step away from grain free. So that's really what's happened we've seen no impact whatsoever that we've been able to track, we've actually even kind of diagnosed and really looked at our grain free items, we have not seen any kind of skipped whatsoever. The only skip that we've seen.
Has been when we actually shorted some of those products in that kind of June issue period.
That where we had some shorts on some of the grain free products, but from a retail takeaway, we really have not seen any impact whatsoever.
You know, it's always unfortunately, but we feel really good about our nutritional approach I think the testing that weve done has validated that they're not really being any at all consumer complaints around it we've gotten very very low numbers of calls compared to what I've heard from some other companies.
I think if I don't even know if we had a double digit number of calls around DCM concerns with Freshpet. So I think we're in really good position.
And it's obviously unfortunate to hear and caused a lot of consumer concern, but I think we've been able to really bypass and not be part of that fray.
Thanks appreciate the color best of luck gentlemen.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please state your question.
Hey, good afternoon folks.
Hey, Jason how are you.
Excellent. Thank you.
You get through earnings season, and enjoy a little bit of summer well, there's still some left.
Congrats on the continued sales momentum obviously great to see.
It's the sales strength can a year after year has come on the back of.
Pretty aggressive not only distribution expansion, but marketing effort.
As we think about going forward.
How do you balance the risk of pulling back on their media spend in keeping the sales momentum because quick back of the envelope math, we take 30% of last year's spend and put it over 20% of planned spend this year. It looks like media spend will be down modestly in the back half of the year and I know that 9% ratio that your fiscal 20 guidance is predicated on suggest pretty modest if any sort or media growth next year. So it looks like we're going to run through a period over the next six quarters, where we've got little to no media spend growth.
But anticipation of continued sales momentum how do we put those two.
So let me just start with the sort of the broad overview.
The way, we think about the media investment in the role that it plays in our business is that the advertising is now prospecting for new users and then the product converts those folks into repeat customers and build out the buying rate. This supports the business, we don't need or we don't expect that advertising investment supports the existing business. The product carries that in the end market result support that we go off the air as we have from time to time throughout the last several years, we don't see an erosion in the business. So when we put advertising on they are purely out prospecting for new users and it converts the advertising spend converts to new users at an incredibly reliable and predictable rate and so what we see is that the dollars are going to spend over the back half of this year, whether it's more than or less than last year were the same as last year and the same for next year whatever it is it's all in the business of bringing in new users to our franchise and building on the existing base of consumers that we have and we've.
As you might imagine have modeled it out and say if we spend this much in bringing this many users and existing users are moving out through the product acquisition curve will we be on track to deliver our goals and the answer we feel very comfortable is yes. In fact as <expletive> said in the in the prepared remarks.
We're growing 26% this year, we only need to grow 23 next year to hit the $300 million number. So we feel that it's very achievable, especially if we exit this year with a run rate on the business. It's in the call it $260 million run rate range. The number of new users that we need to add is very easily doable with the media investment that we're talking about making.
Okay.
And second question from me and then I'll pass it on with only two.
The operational challenges that you experienced this quarter I heard kind of a lot of puts and takes some on the incoming raw material.
Well those are those some more transitory, but can you help me understand what went wrong with the processing cost side, because I've I've kind of thought about operational risk is low right now.
Until we get into sort of ramping up the new facility. So I was caught a little bit flat footed by having some operational issues and that's what I would consider still a low risk period for you.
Yeah, So let me start with.
Our freshpet is a phenomenally good product, but it's also the way in which we make it is a technology that is still I would say relatively immature technology. That's one of the reasons why we continue invest in bench strength there in capability and as I said in the prepared remarks, we will announce a meaningful new hire in the in the next couple of weeks that will help further develop our strengthen our capability.
There to advance that technology, because long term, we want to have not only the best product, we want to have it and be very difficult for anybody to keep up with US now what what happened in this quarter you referenced a couple of things first of them was some inbound raw materials you write very transitory we solve that we've moved on we learned a little bit in the process things that we need to tighten up our specs on but we now feel much better.
The other part of the issue is that as you are growing as quickly as we are and you're having to go from a five day shift operation to the seven day operation into a round the clock operation and then do that on multiple lines you start pushing the limits of just about every one of your systems and you also we saw a little bit of erosion in our efficiency in our effectiveness that we need to get back and that's really what what was the issue. The issue is that we just weren't turning around our lines from one days production to the next days production as effectively or as efficiently as we needed to and as a result, we didn't have quite the throughput or the quality that we needed to have but it's not like we have to go to a new higher level, we need to get to a level that weve been asked before and Thats. What we are working to do.
Great. Thanks, a lot.
Great. Thank you Jason.
Our next question comes from Mark Astrachan with Stifel. Please state your question.
Thanks, Good afternoon everybody.
Hi, Mark I wanted to go back to that last question kind of ask it a different way so but by my math.
It seems like you're actually getting incremental leverage on media dollars spent in terms of what it what the cost is to acquire and incremental households, I guess, yes, 80, you kind of agree with that and B what is driving.
The leverage that you get in kind of purchasing additional households, so to speak in.
How do you think about that opportunity over.
A longer period of time as you think about the media spend meaning that.
I know next year is supposed to be a year, we are not spending more youre going to kind of get into lower levels of growth because capacity constraints, but as you go into kind of the out years.
How do you think about the ability to leverage the media spend and what is the kind of the right rate and how does that fit into the household penetration longer term.
Hey, Mark I think you're exactly right we've added consumers over the past six months faster than we've ever added them before.
And actually more cost effectively we think part of that has to do with the way, we're planning and buying our media, but also some of the messages that we're communicating out.
In addition, what's very helpful is when we have great visibility bigger fridges and more fridges at retail are a big contributor to that so that all of those components have gotten us to a kind of a lower consumer acquisition costs. If you want to think about it that way, which is really where the advertising is directed and as Billy mentioned earlier.
Once people come into the franchise. The thing we love is that when people come in our repeat rates continue to be at these incredibly high level. So once people experience the product and are using it we get these great repeat rates, which encourages people to buy it again. So the advertising is constantly in hunt to contribute to two more and more people over time in quarter by quarter. So we're really happy with the first six months results.
I don't want to harp on it but quite honestly, if we had had and actually it's in the script to <expletive> talks about it in his section, but if we had had slightly better in stock rates and that those in stocks go all the way to retail we would have actually seen some even better growth during the period. The good news is we've gotten a lot of people into the franchise and they'll continue to repeat and and continue to grow our business I would add to that one of the things that several of you have asked us about.
Is the sort of what is the long term beyond 2020, since we havent provide explicit guidance beyond 2020, and sort of how big can this can this business or this fresh pet food market be and we're out doing a very good piece of research that will help us define that for our investors sometime early next year, but one of the questions that we've asked the research firms that Weve talked to in this process is no telling about other brands that have gone through this curve what did that look like what kind of what kind of dynamics do you see in the consumer acquisition and what we hear over and over again. If you look at that if you look at categories, where theres been really rapid growth and really rapid and acquisition of new users you find this phenomenon of it getting quicker and more efficient because you get the benefit of higher visibility higher availability you get a word of mouth benefit. So somebody else's use the brand now you feel like it's a more trusted brand or you can treat to try it because somebody else you know has had a positive.
Grant, but there is this snowball effect that occurs and so whether you're talking about the adoption of bottled water or the increased frequency of use of labor or any of a variety of other things that where you saw this sort of early in its life people didn't know about it and didn't really adopt it. The later on people adopted a much more rapid rate than you could account for based on the marketing investment that was made you can see a very significant growth rate and we think that that's still ahead of us we think that opportunity exists for us over the next five years and will significantly expand the opportunity and we'll media will be a big driver it won't be the only driver.
And I'll build one more thing on top of that because I think it's really is important if you have to remember kind of where we are so we're excited that we've added a lot of consumers our penetration is now at 2.2%.
So we have.
Fairly low aided awareness, we have very low unaided and we have very low penetration.
So, we're making great progress, but there is incredible opportunity.
Behind us or in front of I'm, sorry in front of Us I mean.
And I think that the new advertising and the work that we've done is it's going to allow us to tap a much greater and larger group of consumers.
Yes. Thanks.
Thats helpful. It's actually a good lead into another follow up I have so.
Correct me, if I'm hearing something strangely is strange, but yeah. So.
You had.
Gold previously of something like 500 million and it was an unofficial sales goal by 2023, but didn't you say in the script too that you're talking about needing to open a new facility by 2022 to hit your longer term.
$500 million targets.
We said, we said that we could be the new facility as soon as that are in 2022, you have to remember that our capacity. It comes on rolls and on bags and so this new facility and start up next year as are all line in the bag line, we could be out of the capacity for the bag line in 2022 and need to add incremental bank capacity in that year.
Would we be at 500 million, we may be a 500 million maybe a more depends on the mix of our business.
But we don't think Thats, a stopping point, we frankly think the growth potential is significantly beyond that.
Got it okay. Thank you.
Yes.
Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh with.
Oppenheimer and company. Please state your question.
Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. So for your topics I wanted to cover the first on double Fridges I was hoping to get an update in terms of what you guys are seeing from a lift perspective and whether your performance is consistent across different channels.
So we're it's a it's in some of the data were 747 second fridges, we have an 800.
Target 800 store double fridge target for the year. So we're on track for that.
What we continue to see is that these are paying back within a three year period. That's the that's been how we've been talking about it I'm I think we're at this point, we're seeing very good increases I think it's well below the potential of what the second for just can do so if you go back in history, six or eight years eight years ago. All we made were roles. So we took an entire freighted with rolls because that's what we had so the plan for the second fridge is to continue to fill out the portfolio and really optimize the products that are in that bridge at that point, we will get much much more productivity out of that fridge into the future. So.
We're seeing nice returns the retailers that have done it typically have been very happy with the results. We continue to talk to more and more retailers about expanding second fridges and were seeing uptake on that conversation and we anticipate to continue to get more and more of those but I think we won't really know exactly what the potential is until we see kind of the full portfolio filled out into that second bridge.
Can I add a point to that too which is part of what Scott is emphasizing is the value. The second fridge is the product portfolio expansion. If you think about building barriers to entry over the long haul having a broader portfolio multiple fridges in store insulate, our consumer franchise from a potential competitor even more strongly than the existing.
Opportunity does because if somebody wants to compete with US we have to make a multitude of product forms they're going to have to get a multitude of fridge is put in a store and we become much much less.
Less of a target or it's harder to target our users. If somebody comes along I mean, the second fridge becomes kind of the minor league for Freshpet in a way too in addition to filling out the portfolio and expanding brand. It allows us to take things and test them in the second fridge that potentially can graduate up into the first fridge into 20000 stores instead of it being in 1000 stores at some point in the not terribly distant future. It can go from 1000 to 20000. So we can have the most productive first fridges too, which will basically give us the opportunity to have even more second fridges also.
Okay, great. Thanks for the color and if I can sneak in one more question. So blue Buffalo's, obviously gone to more and more locations. I was just curious if you guys are seeing any impact on your business as Weve added Walmart These days and some other retailers as well.
Yes, it's it's interesting I know a lot of people have seen major major impact.
I think first it's because of distribution losses, and secondarily, because they've actually had an impact on the consumer franchise, especially in the beginning we earn and versus an ore purchase so as blue Buffalo comes into more and more retailers, where we have distribution, we've actually seen some acceleration because of bringing more consumers potentially on a more frequent basis into some of the retailer. So it's actually been a slight help to us in many cases, we have really not lost that I'm aware of any distribution whatsoever anywhere.
And I think like I said, I think it's an and purchase I think the retailers think about it that way and then overtime when people do start buying freshpet as you know.
Overtime, they buy more and more every single year, that's what we continue to see and so we have more consumers coming in and more consumers every year buying more freshpet that puts us in a good good spot.
I think it helps demonstrate the numbers that we see from penetration increases, but also the buying rate piece that we can see it continue to see year after year, even when new consumers are coming in we see buying rate increases of six 810%.
Overtime and Rupesh I I drew a chart that had the Walmart weekly sales that weekly sales at Walmart for the last year and put it down in front of people without dates on it and asked them can you tell me, where the inflection point is that blue Buffalo entered into Walmart and nobody could find it you can't see the line change the silver line the trajectory of our line news that at the same pace.
Okay, great. Thank you for all the color.
Yes.
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please state your question.
Hi, Thanks, Rob.
Hey.
Billy I was wondering have you asked consumers what percent of them say that the advertising was what introduce them to the brand or brought them to the brand and the reason I ask is you know in the Grand scheme of things. The dollars you spend are not very big I'm very impressed that they are breaking through I haven't seen an AD and I have a couple of dogs. So <unk> I'm wondering if it is it like the majority of people see the displays and that's what brings them to the franchise and then <unk> then the advertising is kinda complimentary on top of it.
And and then how do you make that how do you think about that as you think about your longer term advertising strategy.
Well, Rob I am really glad to know that you don't watch jeopardy, [laughter] property [laughter] when they were real fortunate how's that.
Just getting do <unk>, we actually have done kind of a what what's made people aware of the product and how people come in.
So part of it said that's self reported so it's a it's a it's a little bit challenging, but we do see about half the people come in and specifically reporting that they've seen the advertising and the other half through not only seeing the refrigerators, but word of mouth and you know other types of social marketing et cetera. Some of the other things that we do.
But but we what we can see and we have a very very direct correlation is when we run the advertising during certain periods.
Even on really tight periods, we can actually see not only the revenue growth, but also the consumer growth during those period no revenue growth you can say, oh, well, you're encouraging some people to buy more but we've actually seen really consistent for like five years now when we run advertising, we know basically with the correlation is between the advertising spend the GRP is that it represents and the actual number of consumers and then the actual cost per consumer that comes into the business. So.
The reality is you are right. It is an incredibly small marketing budget compared to what spent on the total category. Our share of voice is a little bit above average. So you can make a pretty strong argument that we should be spending maybe even a lot more and I think what we're doing is we know we can grow this business well beyond what it is and the the major governor on the entire business is the capacity that we have we can sell more than we can make at this point. So we're going to continue to kind of have a really kind of consistent cadence on the marketing spend bringing new consumers and but also working really hard on the retail presence piece, which I think is what you are referencing and that gets into the upgraded fridges and also the second front strategy.
Got it.
And then one little follow up are you still on track to spend that 2 million dollar investment internationally for this year.
Yes, yes, we are what we spent in the first half of the year.
It's already done Okay, all right great. Thank you.
And it was very it was a very good investment too yeah. We're we're seeing a response rate that we had anticipated that we had seen here in the us.
And it gives us encouragement that as we spend some type of media dollars into the both those markets, mostly its Canada and UK at this point that will get really strong return and it creates incremental distribution opportunities over time, and really kind of completes the entire model in those markets.
And if you said what your sales are internationally.
No.
There there I mean, they are quite small very small at this point.
Growing, but it's I mean theres a significant we demonstrated there is significant potential in both those markets, where they can be a growth accelerator for the business.
Okay, all right. Thanks.
Thank you. Our next question comes from James Allen with JP Morgan. Please state your question.
Hello.
Just thinking about the pros.
Preliminary results field longer time study, if you've seen them.
I'm wondering if they still endorse expectations for a ramp in media spend up to.
12% of sales for a longer time or if the sort of more effective customer acquisition rates that you had this quarter like might temper that school.
So and again, we don't want to get into what we're going to share because we're in the very preliminary phases, we'll have that at the beginning of next year, but what I can tell you is that we believe fundamentally that we are in the business of.
Changing the way people feed their pets that there is a significant tailwind behind us.
Between the Humanization of pets and people putting feet are.
Feeding themselves in their fan other family members fresher food and we think the opportunity is much bigger than the $300 million. We gave as guidance for 2020 and I as I said, we think we're going to need capacity beyond 2022, and we told folks that it is in our best interest to fill capacity as fast as we have it available to us and we will do that as you take a look at this quarter. What you would take away from it is that if you do it a little bit too fast you kind of can.
Shrinks, a little bit of growing pains. So we've got to be very careful about managing that rate.
But beyond 2020, I would expect us to be spending in the 12% range because we've proven that that run rate that we can both grow at as well as there's significant opportunity for us to expand freshpet infill fill capacity as it's available.
Great and then just on commodity costs.
TLX until this morning about high meat prices kind of across the spectrum.
On the NSF consulting fees related exports are already starting to materialize.
So just curious on your exposure to timing of your contract resets, how long the lost margin sensitivity and as I was a big.
Cost increase what you what your pricing strategy will be.
Yeah, So first of all.
The bulk of our single biggest costs and proteins as chicken and we priced chicken once a year. So we're protected for this year.
And we would price that again at the end of the year for 2020.
Obviously, we in the world the chicken supply can expand very very quickly to to replace any export production. It's also true though that what is next actually export it may not be the part of the chicken that we use and so there's a possibility that as much a cancer grown for the export opportunities that it actually creates an increase in supply of the pot parts that we use and it may help give us some favorability.
So it's hard to say exactly where its going end up is a lot of our merch units and in the markets.
But as it relates to pricing if we have a need to take pricing in the industry as a whole is taking pricing, we certainly would consider it but we saw from the pricing that we took this year as we saw there was very little if any price sensitivity and we also know that our fastest growing I don't know lines, all our highest price per pound item. So it indicates that we have a little headroom above us.
But having said that we really don't want to take pricing, if we don't need to because we think that we like the position that we're in and we would like to not let price be a barrier to consumer adoption. So we look at it very carefully and make a decision on it but at this point the picture is a little bit to marquee.
Thank you very much.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time I'll turn it back to management for closing remarks.
Yes.
The advice columnists Ann Landers, one said don't accept your dogs admiration as conclusive evidence that you are wonderful to which I would add but if you feed your Dod freshpet youve a much better chance of getting close. Thank you for your interest and we look forward to talk to you at the end of next quarter.
Thank you. This concludes today's conference all parties may disconnect have a great day.