NXDT Q1 2026 Earnings Call
Operator (AI Assigned): Hello, welcome to the NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust Q1 2026 Investor Update Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristen Griffith, Investor Relations. You may begin.
Kristen Griffith (IR Operations Associate): Good day, everyone, welcome to NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Investor Update Call. On the call today are Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, Paul Richards, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, and John Good, Chief Executive Officer of NexPoint Storage Partners and Chief Executive Officer of Vinebrook Homes Trust Inc. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this update call and accompanying presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs. Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risks and other factors that could affect the forward-looking statements.
Kristen Griffith (IR Operations Associate): The statements made during this conference call speak as only as of today's date, and except as required by law, NXDT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I would now like to turn the call over to Matt. Please go ahead, Matt.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): Thank you, Kristen, thank you to everyone for joining the call this morning for updates on NXDT's progress. As Kristen said, I'm joined today by Paul Richards, our CFO of NXDT, and John Good, CEO of our storage and single-family rental businesses. This morning, we will discuss NXDT's real estate markets and provide updates on our top holdings. I'll begin by spending a few minutes discussing the residential market, the supply picture, and progress with our City Place project in Uptown Dallas. I'll turn the call over to John and Paul to discuss our storage, SFR, and credit vehicles. Finally, I'll close with progress on efforts to monetize assets and repurchase stock. On the residential front, we are now firmly in the supply trough that I've been describing on these calls for several quarters. The thesis is playing out.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): We are coming off a record national multifamily cycle, net deliveries peaked at approximately 695,000 units in the trailing 12 months ending Q4 2024. For context, that compares to roughly 282,000 units of average annual deliveries since 2001. CoStar now forecasts 2026 deliveries to fall approximately 49% from 2025 levels, with another 20% decline forecasted for 2027. 2027 and 2028 forecasts have been revised down meaningfully from prior estimates as well. On the supply side, multifamily construction starts are running approximately 70% below their 2022 peak. That is locking in a multi-year supply trough, particularly in Uptown Dallas. On the demand side, the structural backstop has not changed. The cost to own a home in our markets remains roughly three times the cost of rent. There is no reasonable mortgage rate scenario that closes that gap quickly.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): Our on-the-ground leasing data is consistent with the inflection thesis. Putting it all together, we believe H2 2026 and 2027 will be meaningfully better than 2025 for residential assets. While the longer-term effect of AI on white-collar employment remains an open debate, our demand thesis does not depend on the labor mix. With the cost to own a home running, again, three times the cost to rent in our markets and new supply collapsing, the structural case for rental demand holds across a wide range of employment outcomes. We would also note a supportive longer-term demographic tailwind as continued gains in health and longevity extend the renter age bands and broaden the demand base over time. Again, with respect to the CityPlace Uptown sub-market, the supply picture is almost non-existent, with just 232 units delivering in the CityPlace Uptown sub-market in 2027, and then nothing thereafter.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): We are nearing completion of design and capitalization of The Apron project as reflected in the recent state filings. In addition, we have executed construction financing term sheets at accretive levels, and our underwriting remains intact with pro forma yield on costs remaining in the mid-6% range. Integrating new housing on The Apron with existing office space, building amenities, and future retail and hospitality offerings will be a significant step in advancing the broader Cityplace redevelopment. On that front, progress on the tower residential design and programming continues to remain on schedule, with an intentional lag behind The Apron as we phase the development. We expect to turn our attention to financing the tower in H2 of the year and remain overall bullish on starting this residential project this year as the sub-market supply literally falls off of a cliff.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): Now I'd like to turn the call over to John.
John Good (CEO): Thanks, Matt, and welcome everyone. I'll start out by talking about results at NexPoint Storage Partners, then move on to VineBrook, then turn the call over to Paul. With respect to NexPoint Storage Partners' occupancy trends, at 31 March, our physical occupancy was 92.3%, which was up 60 basis points from 31 December 2025, which had an occupancy at that date of 91.7%. Our 92.3% is identical to the 92.3% that we reflected at 31 March 2025. Our occupancy levels are performing to normal seasonal expectations, and our physical occupancy continues to rank among the highest in the self-storage industry. As of yesterday, our physical occupancy was 93.9%, a 160 basis point gain since 31 March, and roughly the same as our occupancy the same time last year. As for rental rates, sector-wide rental rates continue to inch forward as we move through rental season.
John Good (CEO): Our portfolio's in-place rate on 31 March 2026 was $20.23 per foot, up 6.7% from the $18.96 that we reflected at 31 March 2025, and up 30 basis points from the $20.17 at the beginning of the year. Our average asking rate remained relatively flat year-over-year, rising $0.02 from $19.48 at 31 March 2025 to $19.50 at 31 March 2026. Growth in our average web rate, which is the rate charged to customers who find units and rent via the internet, which comprises the majority of our customers, was up 2.6% year-over-year from $13.30 at 31 March 2025 to $13.64 at 31 March 2026. Our properties continue to be subject to aggressive rate increase programs to existing customers.
John Good (CEO): With those rate increases generally kicking in 4 months after a new customer comes into the facility, those rent increases have been running north of 30% for the last several months. We expect these rate increases, along with stable occupancy, to support a 5% to 6% increase in same-store revenue for 2026. Moving to revenue and net operating income. Same-store revenue for the quarter ended 31 March 2026 was $23.1 million, or 6.4% higher than the $21.7 million recognized in Q1 2025. Net operating income for Q1 2026 was $14 million, or 10.2% higher than Q1 2025 NOI of $12.7 million. These results continue to lead the publicly traded self-storage REITs by a large margin. They reported Q1 same-store revenue growth of an average of less than 2% and negative same-store NOI growth.
John Good (CEO): Demand in the self-storage sector has typically been led by housing mobility and life events, the historically weak housing market experienced over the past 3 years has softened self-storage demand. Our publicly listed self-storage REIT peers continue to operate a large portion of their respective portfolios, subject to this slowness in demand, resulting in flat to negative revenue growth and negative NOI growth. However, our portfolio is the youngest portfolio of size in the storage sector, and our location in large, dense urban submarkets provides a consistent demand funnel made up of people who have to rent storage because they don't have enough space. This makes us somewhat immune from the continued slow housing market that is burdening the rest of the sector, and it has allowed us to substantially outperform our peers. Moving to supply.
John Good (CEO): Development remains limited in self-storage due to high borrowing costs, land scarcity, significant inflation in materials costs, permitting challenges, the continued weakness in the demand for self-storage caused by the weak housing market. The expected new supply for 2026 and 2027 is well below the 3% threshold needed for equilibrium and projected to fall even lower into 2027, likely renewing pricing power in the sector and allowing for stronger rate growth over the next couple of years. We continue to believe we have the preeminent urban storage portfolio in the United States that will continue to outperform our peers and command a premium valuation upon any liquidity event. Now moving to VineBrook.
John Good (CEO): We began a transformation of VineBrook Homes beginning in H2 2025 when we partnered with Evergreen Residential to manage our over 20,000 home portfolio and began to aggressively sell approximately 4,000 homes that comprise our lowest performing 20% and redeploy proceeds in the higher yielding built-to-rent communities. The externalization of management to Evergreen is expected to save us over $15 million per year in G&A expense. The repositioning of the bottom tier of our portfolio is expected to produce yields of 50 to 100 basis points ahead of our average yield for the entire portfolio, 75 to 150 basis points ahead of the yields on the disposed of homes.
John Good (CEO): The enhanced yields from replacing older, high maintenance housing stock with new, lower maintenance, easier to manage, and higher yielding built-to-rent homes should, over time, be highly accretive to VineBrook's net operating income and share value as those built-to-rent communities stabilize. To execute this strategy, during Q1, we removed 1,670 homes from the rented pool in order to make those homes ready for disposition. We sold 289 homes during Q1, and we acquired 181 built-to-rent homes during the quarter. As we execute this repositioning of our company, revenue will lag for a few quarters as existing homes are pulled out of the rental pool and sold, and as we acquire and lease up our built-to-rent homes. Once we complete this repositioning during 2027, revenue growth should be strong and the value of our company should be significantly enhanced. Our Q1 performance was solid.
John Good (CEO): Physical occupancy within our stabilized same home set actually ticked up to 95.3% from 94.9% at year-end 2025. Our stabilized home count was relatively flat during Q1 compared to Q1 2025, with count being 15,765 homes for Q1 2026, versus 15,747 homes for Q1 2025. An 18-home increase, or about one-tenth of 1%. Our net operating income margin on our same home portfolio was 63.9% for the quarter, a 60 basis point improvement over the same quarter in 2025, and consistent with our peers. In Q1, our rental rates on renewal leases increased 5.5%, and rental rates on new leases were essentially flat, resulting in a blended rental rate increase of 4.5% for Q1, more than double the blended growth rates reported by our larger publicly traded peers. Same home net operating income for Q1 increased 1.3% over Q1 2025.
John Good (CEO): Over the past two and a half years, we have fortified the VineBrook balance sheet, reducing leverage, decreasing our interest rate, and extending maturities until the end of the decade. As part of that fortification, we were able to procure a $500 million acquisition line of credit from JP Morgan to fund built-to-rent acquisitions. The intent is to pay down the acquisition line through the sale of homes to which I just referred, making our BTR strategy leverage neutral to leverage positive. To date, we have purchased three stabilized BTR communities and have funded a portion of two forward sale BTR communities, investing approximately $100 million in these built-to-rent communities. Built-to-rent homes are higher yielding assets in higher growth markets that are easier to manage.
John Good (CEO): We have invested in built-to-rent communities in two of our better performing legacy markets, Indianapolis and Kansas City, as well as in new markets such as Nashville and Raleigh. As many of you are probably aware, just from watching the news or reading the press, in early January of this year, the President challenged Congress to adopt legislation to make housing more affordable. Included in his challenge was a call for Congress to curb growth of what he called corporate ownership of single-family rental housing through a ban on additional purchases by institutional investors. After months of competing bills and negotiation between the House and the Senate, as of last night, both Houses have passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act.
John Good (CEO): We were deeply involved over the past six months lobbying for a bill that would not restrict capital flows into our sector and would allow us to do business as usual. While most of the bill is designed to provide incentives to the private sector and states and cities to increase supply and make home loans more available in smaller communities. Title 10, Section 1001 of the bill imposes on large institutional investors, which are defined as any entity or group of related entities that own more than 350 homes, a ban on future acquisitions of single family homes for rent. There are a number of important exceptions to the ban. Newly constructed homes, purpose-built to rent homes purchased and renovated to meet local occupancy codes, homes placed in a rent-to-own program, and purchases from institutional investors.
John Good (CEO): We believe the bill allows us to continue operating in our current manner and in accordance with our current business plan, and experts believe that the bill, as passed, will renew capital flow into the sector. Over the past two years, we have fortified VineBrook's balance sheet and created capital to allocate to build to rent opportunities. We have an active pipeline and ability to move very quickly to close on good opportunities, and now the legislation allows us to continue to do so. Finally, a few comments about net asset value and liquidity. Our net asset value at 31 March 2026 was $54.24, compared to $54.56 at 31 March 2025, a 60 basis point decline as the range of cap rates provided by Green Street Advisors, our third-party valuation firm, expanded.
John Good (CEO): This is the worst housing market in two decades, characterized by low inventory, low construction starts, and high mortgage tax and insurance rates, as well as political headwinds in Washington, DC. The shares of our publicly traded peers continue to trade at substantial discounts to their net asset values, reflecting these higher cap rates. Our NAV continues to be supported by our home sales, and we are pleased that the NAV has remained at a tight range over the past two years, despite a stubbornly weak housing market, rising costs, and volatility in the SFR REIT sector. We remain committed to providing some limited liquidity sometime in the H2 of the year, the amount of which continues to be discussed by management and the board as we continue to monitor the macro outlook and execute on our portfolio repositioning.
John Good (CEO): A listing during the next four quarters is still on the table, but our publicly traded peers continue to trade significantly below NAV, and we are mindful of conducting such listing in a manner where shareholder value is maximized to the extent possible. Management, the board, and NexPoint entities remain the largest shareholders in the company, and we continue to be absolutely aligned with all shareholders in terms of seeking to maximize value. With those remarks, I'll turn it over to Paul to comment on NREF.
Paul Richards (EVP and CFO): Thanks, John. As of today, NXDT holds shares of the OP units of NexPoint Real Estate Finance worth approximately $94 million of net asset value, or approximately $1.59 per NXDT share on a standalone basis. As a reminder, NREF is a publicly traded mortgage REIT focused on originating and or purchasing credit investments in our key operating verticals of residential, both SFR and multifamily, self-storage, and life science. NREF reported Q1 net income to common shareholders of $10 million or $0.42 per share. Cash available for distribution was $13.5 million or $0.58 per share. Moving to our portfolio and book value. Book value per share fell slightly to $18.96, reflecting sustained strong performance on our underlying assets. The portfolio totals approximately $1.1 billion across 90 investments diversified across multi, single-family rental, and life sciences.
Paul Richards (EVP and CFO): Importantly, NREF remains one of the lowest levered mortgage REITs in the space at just about 0.7x debt to equity, which provides us flexibility and downside protection. The stock is trading at a 30% discount to book value, creating an attractive entry point relative to intrinsic value. Next, a few comments on capital activity. On the most significant transaction of the quarter, we have successfully refinanced $180 million of our senior unsecured notes that were maturing 1 May. We replaced those 5.75% fixed rate notes with a new $242.5 million total return swap facility priced at SOFR plus 375 basis points with three-year term and a one-year extension option. Next, on the capital structuring positioning.
Paul Richards (EVP and CFO): Combined with the $21.1 million we raised in our Series C preferred and the Re-REMIC execution, we head back into H2 2026 with one of the cleanest, most flexible capital structures in the commercial mortgage REIT sector. On to the Re-REMIC execution. We sold our B-pieces to Mizuho at $92.7, having purchased it at $68.69 in 2021, and reinvested into an HRR tranche of the new structure at an 18.5% yield. That single transaction generated 46% share per book value appreciation, reduced REPO financing by $75 million, and is expected to drive approximately $0.34 per share of annual CAD accretion going forward. Next, dividend coverage. We paid a regular dividend of $0.50 per share in Q1, which is 1.16x covered by cash available for distribution. Lastly, our future outlook and guidance.
Paul Richards (EVP and CFO): Looking forward, we expect earnings available for distribution of $0.43 per share in Q2, with CAD at $0.54 per share. With a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.7x and a dividend coverage of 1.16x by CAD, we believe NREF is well positioned to sustain its distribution and create durable shareholder value. Our affiliates and long-term investors maintain significant skin in the game alongside our shareholders. Our structure review is a meaningful differentiator. Now I'd like to pass it back to Matt.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): All right. Thanks, Paul. As you can tell by John and Paul's updates, we continue to make operational progress across all of our platforms in spite of broader geopolitical and capital market noise. As I stated last quarter, certain monetization efforts continue to progress on several fronts. One example is MidWave Wireless, formerly TerreStar Corporation, which remains one of the largest independent wireless spectrum license holders in the United States. The company continues to explore strategic options as it seeks to monetize its investment. We continue to see activity in the sector with spectrum licenses actively trading in the market, which we believe is a positive indicator for potential value realization over the next 12 months. By way of reference, recent public transactions underscore the depth of this market.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): AT&T agreed to acquire roughly 50 MHz of EchoStar spectrum for approximately $23 billion, an implied value of about $1.40 per MHz-pop, while SpaceX acquired EchoStar spectrum across two transactions totaling nearly $20 billion, with Verizon and T-Mobile both reporting to be evaluating the remaining licenses. We view this level of large cap buyer demand as supportive of the value embedded in our holdings. This activity, coupled with our ongoing amortization of preferred stock holdings, will continue to fuel aggressive stock buybacks over the near term. As of the close of business yesterday, we had repurchased over 1.1 million shares of common stock at an average stock price of $3.83 per share. You should expect this buyback activity will continue over the near term.
Matt McGraner (EVP and Chief Investment Officer): In addition to stock buybacks, management and the board are keenly focused on improving disclosure and evaluating share issuances while we continue to make operational progress within our key operating verticals. That's all we have today for our prepared remarks. I'd like to thank everyone for joining today's call and look forward to providing further updates on our next progress next quarter. Thank you very much and good day.
Operator (AI Assigned): This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
