WIHLY Q3 2025 Earnings Call

Ulrika Hallengren: Welcome to the presentation of Wihlborgs' 9-Month Report 2025. There's an old saying when you think you can see the light at the end of the tunnel, beware, it could be an oncoming train. We never know what will happen ahead, and we try to be prepared for whatever we can think of. But let us be clear, we see some glimmer here and there, maybe not the full ray of light yet, but nice glitters in the horizon. It's a very busy report week for all of you, so I will try to be short and precise. That means standard procedure about the last results of our continued growth and some new records, but also some figures regarding loyalty among our customers, how we can calculate retention rates and not at least our view on future occupancy. We start with a summary of the quarter, July to September. Rental income up 6%, a new record at SEK 1.101 billion; income from property management, plus 11%; net letting positive at SEK 6 million; net EBIT to EBITDA at 10.3x, good access to financing. And as said many times before, but this still stands, demand remains for good quality in good location, and we are proud to be able to continue with the project investment that gives continued good potential for growth. Looking at the whole period, first 9 months, rental income up to SEK 3.243 billion, plus 4%. The operating surplus increased to SEK 2.334 billion and income from property management increased by 12% to SEK 1.482 billion. The result for the period amounts to SEK 1.370 billion, corresponding to SEK 4.46 per share and EPRA NRV has increased by 10% to SEK 96.23 per share adjusted for paid dividend. A comparison of the rental income first 9 months '24 and first 9 months '25. Indexation gives plus SEK 30 million; acquisition, plus SEK 90 million; currency effect, minus SEK 21 million; additional charges, plus SEK 21 million; and completed projects, new leases and renegotiation plus SEK 8 million. And here is also a new higher property tax of approximately SEK 15 million included. So higher vacancy today than a year ago, but small improvement since last report and during 2026, the improvement from new leases will show. And the streak of positive net letting continues, plus SEK 6 million in the quarter, plus SEK 65 million for the period and in total, new leases at a yearly value of SEK 300 million signed in the period. For the third quarter, the volume of new leases of SEK 66 million is good. And maybe I expected the net letting to be a bit better than SEK 6 million, but we got a late termination of SEK 16 million from a tenant who I'm not sure if they really want to move or just renegotiate. Discussions are ongoing, but the total termination is registered. So a possible upside ahead, 42 quarters in a row with positive net letting. Here are some of the tenants that we have signed during Q3, a combination of expanding tenants and new tenants from many industries, health care, insurance, biomaterials and a company that manufactures equipment for land-based fish farms as examples. And here, we have the net letting in a historical perspective, lettings in green, termination in light blue and dark blue stacks are the net letting. And as mentioned, quite high volume of new leases for being a third quarter. And the list of our 10 largest tenants in alphabetic order, strong customers, and they contribute with 20% of our rental income. 7 out of 10 are governmental tenants and the public sector contributes with 23% of total rental income. Rental value as of 1st of October is SEK 4.889 billion per year, plus 7.2% and rental income, SEK 4.379 billion, plus 4.6%. Effects from acquisition, indexation and higher willingness to pay for the right quality. Looking at like-for-like figures, all the properties we owned a year ago, excluding projects compared with updated figures, we can see that rental value is up 2.4% and rental income is down 0.8%. The growth in the rental market is supported by indexation of 1.6% in Sweden and approximately 1% in Denmark last year. Indexation ahead in Denmark expects to be a bit higher, and that will be reflected in the rental levels for 2026. I think the September number was 2.3% or something. Lower rental income in like-for-like is an effect of higher vacancy than a year ago. And at least, it's encouraging to see that vacancy appears to have bottomed out in several areas. More on that topic later. Changes in the market value of our properties. We started the year with SEK 59.168 billion in accordance with the external valuation of 100% of our portfolio. We have made acquisition, which adds on SEK 2.552 billion; in investment, SEK 1.911 billion; divestment, minus SEK 114 million; changes in valuation, plus SEK 450 million. And together with currency translations of minus SEK 500 million, that summarizes to a value of SEK 63.457 billion. The valuation this quarter have no changes in valuation yields, indexation or other underlying parameters. Expectation ahead is more likely to be positive, if I may guess. These figures, the running yield show how we actually perform in relation to the valuation, so not the valuation yield. For the whole portfolio, the occupancy rate is 90%, excluding projects and land and with an operating surplus of SEK 3.326 billion, that gives a running yield of 5.6%. Fully let, the portfolio would give a running yield of 6.4%. Good earnings capacity in relation to the value of the portfolio and good cash flow generation is the foundation also ahead. Occupancy is slightly up looking at the decimals since the last quarter and at least that is in the right direction. In the office portfolio, the market value is SEK 50.394 billion with an occupancy rate of 91%, 92% in Malmö, improved to 90% in Helsingborg, 90% in Lund and 92% in Copenhagen. The improvement has started and will be clearer during 2026. Operating surplus from offices summarized to SEK 2.755 billion and running yield of 5.5%, 6.2% fully let. The demand for logistics and production continues to be good in Malmö with an occupancy of 93%, lower occupancy in Helsingborg at 83%, 91% in Lund with a small portfolio and 96% in Copenhagen. 87% occupancy rate as a whole with a running yield of 6.4%, 7.5% fully let at a total value of SEK 8.988 billion. As mentioned before, we continue to see harder competition in the third-party Logistics segment with very quick changes in needs. That also means that occupancy can improve quickly when the market changes. But I assume that vacancy in the southern parts of Helsingborg will be a bit sticky since the area will go through a makeover that would take a number of years. But as mentioned before, still a decent running yield of 6.4% even with the high vacancy and the market as such continues to be interesting. The development of our total portfolio running yield, 5.6% brings stability, not least since the portfolio overall has a high quality and good location. As noticed before, a high increase of the running yield since 2021. Some sustainability highlights from Q3. We have been appointed as Global Sector Leader by GRESB, completed a battery storage in Lund and actually one in Helsingborg as well. We have signed more sustainable -- sustainability-linked loans, also including Scope 3 carbon dioxide performance, and we continue to reduce our energy consumption. As a new example, we have reduced the electricity used for heating and cooling by 50% at Ideon Gateway in Lund, including both offices and hotel. New cooling technology and of course, the Janne solution is the answer. And something about what our customers think about us. Our latest customer satisfaction index from now in September shows an index of 79 and a loyalty score of 82, very high numbers. Tenants are especially happy with our personal service with 88% satisfaction, our competence scoring 86 and accessibility score 85. Let me just say that I totally agree with our customers. I'm also very satisfied with my competent and service-minded colleagues. I give them 100 out of 100. A catalog of our value and properties in our 4 cities in Q3, 39% of the value in Malmö, 23% in Helsingborg, 17% in Lund and 20% in Copenhagen. The region and especially these 4 cities continues to be of high interest for future growth, both in population growth forecast, which will otherwise be a challenge in many places and in a number of new workplaces. And time for financials. Over to you, Arvid.

Arvid Liepe: Thank you very much, Ulrika. Looking at the income statement for the third quarter isolated. Are we on the right slide? There we are. Thanks. Rental income grew by 6% to SEK 1.101 billion, and operating surplus increased by 4% to SEK 790 million. There are a couple of things to bear in mind looking at those 2 numbers. First of all, we've been through a new property taxation, and we got the new taxation values this summer. The taxation values are higher, which means that the property tax also is higher. The property tax -- the new property tax is applicable from 1st of January. So we have, you could say, a catch-up effect. So we -- the changes for all 3 quarters are accounted for in the third quarter numbers. That means that on the rental income line, as Ulrika mentioned, that has been affected with plus SEK 15 million from increased property tax, and on the operating cost side, our operating surplus has been affected with minus SEK 20 million from the increased property tax for the first 3 quarters during this year. So the ongoing -- or the future effect of the increased property tax will be smaller on a quarterly basis than you can see in the Q3 numbers. It's also important to bear in mind that on the rental income line, we've had a negative effect from currencies of minus SEK 7 million, and that same currency effect on the operating surplus line has been minus SEK 5 million. The income from property management amounted to SEK 495 million. We've had a small positive impact there from FX since we borrow a lot in Danish kroner as well. Income from property management up 11% versus the same quarter in 2024. We had positive value changes in the quarter of SEK 103 million. And all in all, a profit for the period of SEK 487 million. Looking at the balance sheet. The value of our property portfolio is now SEK 63.5 billion, up SEK 5.6 billion versus 12 months previously. Equity stands at SEK 23.5 billion, up SEK 1.2 billion versus 12 months previously. And during that time, we have, as you know, also paid approximately SEK 1 billion in dividends to our shareholders. And our borrowings are SEK 33.2 billion, SEK 3.5 billion higher than 12 months previously. Translating that into key numbers, our equity assets ratio now stands at 36.2%. The LTV has gone down from the last quarter to 52.3% and the interest cover ratio for the period stands at 2.8x. Looking at some per share numbers, I'd just like to highlight the EPRA NRV value at SEK 96.23 per share, which is up 10% adjusted for dividends versus 12 months previously. On the next slide, you can see the historic development of EPRA NRV, a stable growth over many years and the average annual growth adjusted for dividend is actually 15%. Moving on to the historical development of our financial ratios. The equity assets ratio at 36.2%, as you can see, is well above the 30% that we have set as the minimum level for ourselves and also on decent levels in a long-term historical perspective. The loan-to-value in the perspective of approximately 10 years has come down from around 60% now to 52.3%. And the interest cover ratio, as we've talked about before, has been very variable, especially during the special period when we had almost 0 interest rates when we had an extremely strong interest cover ratio. The rate is now stabilized and 2.8x is a quite decent level to be at. On the next slide, you see the net debt in relation to EBITDA, also that's in a long-term historical perspective. The ratio stands at 10.3x. It varies with a couple of decimals up and down, but being at 10.3x is a comfortable level for us. Looking at our sources of financing, we still have approximately half of our loans from bilateral bank agreements with Nordic banks, about 1/3 from the Danish rail mortgage system and 17% from the bond market. I would say that the banks are definitely more proactive in their lending efforts than they have been for many years actually. And we do see bank margins gradually moving downwards. The bond market has also -- as we noted already in the Q2 report, the bond market is a lot stronger than it was a year ago, and we can issue unsecured bonds at quite attractive levels in this market. The structure of our interest rate portfolio, you can see on this slide. The average interest rate is 3.29%, 3.33% if you include costs for unutilized credit facilities. We have both in the past quarter, but also if you look over the coming couple of years, we will have some effects of attractive interest rate swaps expiring, but we also see an effect of the margins that we pay to banks and in the bond market coming down somewhat. So overall, over the coming few quarters, I would expect the average interest rate to be reasonably flat. And yes, we can move to the next slide and see the development of the fixed interest period, which has gone up a touch in the quarter. It's now 2.7 years. And the average loan maturity in the loan portfolio is 4.8 years. And lastly, from my side, looking at available funds, we have unutilized credit facilities plus liquid funds of SEK 2.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, which gives us, in our view, enough financial flexibility to manage operations and seize opportunities in a good way. With that, I hand the word back to you, Ulrika.

Ulrika Hallengren: Thank you. And an update on our investment in progress and a quick overview of our largest project. During the period, we have invested SEK 1.911 billion, and it remains SEK 2.730 billion to invest in approved projects, good volume in all our cities, a reasonable yield on cost with 6% or a bit above 6% for new build offices and 7% or a bit above that for industrial and a good mix of refurbishment and new build in the portfolio. Let's start in Copenhagen with our project at Ejby Industrivej 41 in the beginning, planned as and decided for a multi-tenant transformation, but with a 15-year lease with Per Aarsleff turned into a single-tenant building. 24,000 square meters, investment SEK 231 million and yield on cost a bit above 6%. Completion is planned to February 2026. The large project at Amphitrite 1 in Malmö has started off really well, a bit about 20,000 square meters for Malmö University at a 10-year lease. We have started at site with deconstruction. And during September, we got the building permission from the municipality. Completion is planned to Q4 '27 and procurement will be completed shortly. In Malmö and Hyllie, we continue with Bläckhornet 1 VISTA, an SEK 884 million investment. The mobility hub has already been completed and the office will be completed in Q1 '26 and during '26. Yield on cost, 6.2% and today, approximately 40% pre-let. The best possible product and low competition from new build in the area, but we still need more activity and more decisiveness from our customers before we are satisfied. An example of top-level refurbishment in Malmö is Börshuset 1. This is an almost iconic building right beside the train station, 6,000 square meters, offices, restaurant and co-working and absolutely top rents in a Malmö perspective. Completion in Q1 '26 and moving in will continue during '26. Pre-let, 95%. At Kranen 7 in Malmö, we will invest approximately SEK 136 million in a preschool for the municipality, 2,900 square meter zoning plan approved and completion is expected to Q3 '27. Public procurement act starts now. And at Sunnanå 12:54, 17,000 square meter logistics, 100% pre-let in a 15-year lease will be completed 1st of December '25, SEK 280 million investment and yield on cost close to 7%. In Lund, we are building a new modern office right beside the Central Station, Posthornet, phase 2, 10,100 square meter, yield on cost, 6.5% and completion Q2 '26. Pre-let, a bit above 40% today. But together with ongoing discussions, I believe we can reach approximately 70% before year-end, keep our fingers crossed, and very attractive product. And at Vätet 1, also in Lund, we continue with refurbishment and adding on areas for our new tenant, Arm, 5,700 square meters and a 7-year lease, investment SEK 145 million, excluding value of the land, and yield on cost a bit above 10% and over 6.6% yield on cost, including ingoing property value. In the southern part of Lund, we continue to develop of Tomaten. This product for BPC, completion Q2 '26 and investment SEK 79 million, 3,600 square meters and yield on cost 7%. Next to that, at former Stora Råby 32:22, now named as Surkålen 1, we have been able to improve since the project started. Tenants will be both Note and Lund University. So well-used land area and long leases. In total, 14,500 square meter completion in Q2 for Note and Q4 '26 for Lund University. Investment, SEK 260 million and yield on cost 9.2%. In Hörsholm, Copenhagen, we invest in a new school for NGG, 25-year lease, 11,600 square meter and investment SEK 390 million. Completion in Q1 '26. And at Giroströget in Höje Taastrup, the refurbishment for Novo continues, 62,000 square meters. Our investment is limited to SEK 423 million and completion is expected in Q1 '26, but Novo also pays rent during the refurbishment period. That was some of the ongoing project and just to touch on future possibilities as a repetition. 4 possible projects in Lund and Helsingborg, where we can develop some 70,000 square meters in the future. Zoning plans are approved for the first few projects and ongoing at Västerbro in Lund and some of the office possibilities in Malmö in the area of Nyhamnen and Dockan. High interest for the future, of course. If you should ask me which projects of these will be the next one, my best guess today is that will be none of these. The Ideon site in Lund is developing very well, and we have building rights there that might be of high interest for the growing defense and tech industries. Early volume studies have started, but nothing I can show yet. And the summary of Q3 again. Rental income up 6%; income from property management, plus 11%; net letting positive, net debt to EBITDA at 10.3x and good access to financing. And we will continue with a focus on cash earnings and future growth. We have been able to grow every year during different economic environment since 2005. We know how to adapt, find new ways and we will continue with this knowledge and ambition. Growth and cash flow is our passion and the compound interest effect of stable growth is hard to beat from SEK 7 billion to SEK 63.5 billion without any new equity from our shareholders. We have been able to grow, thanks to continued investments. They contribute to upgraded attractiveness and new demands and what comes first, higher rents or investments, have no answer, but these factors have a relation. Here is a graph showing the market rents for prime offices in Malmö and our quarterly investments during the same period from 2010 to present. The green bars represent our investment and the green line represent rent levels. And finally, a market outlook. Employment growth in our region continues. Office rents show long-term growth. Wihlborgs' project investment increase over time. Tenants on average, stay in the premises for 14 years, which support the strong customer satisfaction score. And if we just take the largest leases we have signed, we have a volume of some SEK 320 million moving in from now until end '27 and during the same period, terminations of some SEK 190 million, a good gap. So possibilities for growth is in sight. And with that, we are open for questions.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Oscar Lindquist from ABG Sundal Collier.

Oscar Lindquist: So firstly, on projects. The 2 projects completed in the quarter, Galoppen and Kranen, how much did they contribute in the quarter? And how much should we expect into Q4?

Ulrika Hallengren: They didn't contribute in the quarter, but will contribute for the full Q4.

Oscar Lindquist: And then on the Sunnanå project, from when should we expect contribution from that project?

Ulrika Hallengren: Also from 1st of October. No, 1st of December, sorry.

Oscar Lindquist: 1st of December. Okay. And then the Börshuset project was moved to Q1. What's the reasoning?

Ulrika Hallengren: The tenant will start moving in there. So there's no delay in the project, but it's a difference between when the building is completed and when tenants moving in. So I think the -- we will have a ceremony there in February, but the rent will be started to pay in Q1.

Arvid Liepe: However, everybody does not move in Q1 of the signed leases.

Ulrika Hallengren: Correct. we have moving in during the whole '26.

Oscar Lindquist: Yes. And then if we move over to net letting, you mentioned a late termination of SEK 16 million in the quarter. When do you think you will know if they terminate or extend their contract?

Ulrika Hallengren: We have calculated as terminated and discussions are ongoing. So I guess now during Q4, there will be a decision if they stay or...

Oscar Lindquist: Yes. And if they terminate the impact would be in 9 to 12 months or what's fair to expect there?

Ulrika Hallengren: Just a minute. 2027, from 1st of January 2027.

Oscar Lindquist: Okay. And then -- so if we adjust for that termination, net letting was positive SEK 22 million. What's the mix here between projects and existing properties?

Ulrika Hallengren: In the quarter, I don't have that figure right away. But I think actually that the existing portfolio contributed very well this year and also in the quarter and also good contribution from all our cities, at least for the 9-month period. So I would say that we see positive signals in all our 4 cities.

Oscar Lindquist: Okay. So effectively [indiscernible]

Arvid Liepe: It's -- in the quarter, I would say, without -- I don't have the exact figure either, but I would say that more existing properties than projects during this quarter in the net lettings.

Oscar Lindquist: Okay. Perfect. And then if we look on the Bläckhornet project and the Posthornet project, how is discussions going there? You improved the occupancy slightly in Bläckhornet now in the quarter. What's your sort of ambitions closing in on completion?

Ulrika Hallengren: Our ambition is to improve, of course. It's a very good product. And -- but the volume is quite large. So something tends to take longer time when you can choose of good things in many levels, so to speak. So I can't give a figure when I think it's -- but I think we will continue with the work for letting also during 2026. That's reasonable to think that. But let me also mention that we see a good -- we have signed new leases in [indiscernible] in the same area. And also, actually, we -- the portfolio we bought 1st of April, there was some vacancy at [indiscernible], for example. And that is now, I think, 20%, 30% vacancy, and that is now fully let. So there is definitely activity out there.

Oscar Lindquist: And would you say sort of the outlook or discussions with the tenants has improved in the quarter and going into Q4 or...

Ulrika Hallengren: Yes, I think so. But it depends. One day, you think it's slow and one day you think it's very active. So -- but overall, I would say that there's more positivism out there.

Oscar Lindquist: Yes. And then on occupancy, it's essentially flat Q-on-Q, and you sort of alluded or guided to improving occupancy in the second half. Could you quantify what you expect in -- or what we could expect in Q4?

Ulrika Hallengren: I especially guided on occupancy in offices in Helsingborg, and that have improved 2% during the year. And otherwise, I think that we will continue to have some improvements, but not quick improvements since we also have -- I mean, for example, SAAB will move out the 1st of January '26, and that will take some time before we have entering new tenants there. But a very good example of that is that we have already signed new leases for that building with new tenant moving in a year. So only 9 months for refurbishment. And I...

Arvid Liepe: For part of the building.

Ulrika Hallengren: Yes, for part of the building. So they take -- yes, [ they'll likely ] take one part of the building, and we also have good discussions for more areas there which might also end up in moving in, yes, I mean, October next year or so. So quite quick period between moving out and new tenants moving in. And not for the total volume, but at a good part of it. So...

Operator: The next question comes from Eleanor Frew from Barclays.

Eleanor Frew: Just one question from me. So on rental growth, your chart clearly shows there's prime rental growth, but can you comment on the more secondary assets? What's the rental growth you're seeing there? And is there any negative re-leasing on those poorer-quality assets?

Ulrika Hallengren: I mean, of course, when you look into the absolutely best location and top rent levels, that is one area. If you just take a small step from that and still good location and good quality, the rent levels continue to develop well. If you go to more poorer area, we have not a large amount of equity there. So I can't really give a good guidance. But of course, it's harder to find higher levels of rents in poorer area. There will be a larger difference there in the market as it is today.

Operator: The next question comes from Lars Norrby from SEB.

Lars Norrby: I'm a bit late into the call. So cut me off if I ask a question that somebody else has already asked. But I have a follow-up on a question I heard, and that was about the occupancy rate, once again, flat in the quarter. Just to be clear, I mean, you have some 6 projects or so being completed in the first quarter of '26 and then you talked about that SAAB moving out. But based on what you know today, has the occupancy rate bottomed out? And at what point in time do you expect it to improve, at what stage in '26?

Ulrika Hallengren: I would say that for the whole portfolio, I think the vacancy has bottomed out, but we can see for a shorter time or period, higher vacancy in some areas, for example, when SAAB moves out and before we have new tenants in place. But we meet that well with new rental agreements. So yes, I think we have bottomed out and will improve, but the improvement isn't a quick shift. It will take some time. And especially during 2026 and end of 2026, as mentioned before, we have a quite large volume coming in. But also now in Q4, we have good volumes coming in from Galoppen and Sunnanå, for example. So yes. Of course, we want the occupancy to be even higher, but still, it's good to see that we have flattened out and are on the up-going way on the occupancy again.

Lars Norrby: Second and final question. 2025 has been a year where you're growing through projects, but also through a quite substantial acquisition. Looking ahead, '26, '27, is it very much all about projects? Or are you considering adding additional size of any magnitude through acquisition as well?

Ulrika Hallengren: I expect that we will see a combination. It's good with the project volume because you can manage that and plan for that. And acquisition is harder to plan for. But we continue to be active and trying to find the best premises for us. And of course, it's an interesting period we're in.

Lars Norrby: And just a quick follow-up on that. In what geographic area? Are we talking primarily about Copenhagen then? Or is it more likely to be in Sweden?

Ulrika Hallengren: I think there is interesting things going on both in Sweden and Denmark. So we try to be active on both places, both countries. And as mentioned, I mean, you can't plan for transaction if you want them to be the best things for you. So of course, you can be aggressive and try to buy whatever, but we will continue to be picky on what we want to go into, of course.

Lars Norrby: Sounds good. I hope you don't buy whatever.

Ulrika Hallengren: We will not.

Operator: The next question comes from Oscar Lindquist from ABG Sundal Collier.

Oscar Lindquist: So I just had a follow-up question on the property tax you mentioned weighing on the NOI margin. So the effect in this quarter was SEK 5 million, as I understand it. Is that correct?

Arvid Liepe: On the operating surplus line, yes. A negative effect of SEK 5 million.

Oscar Lindquist: Yes. But going forward, will you be able to sort of pass on the full increase in property tax to tenants?

Arvid Liepe: Not 100%, but the very largest part. I mean, we do have some vacancies, for example, and we have a very small proportion, but still a few inclusive contracts, so to speak.

Oscar Lindquist: But then significantly lower than the SEK 5 million we saw this quarter?

Arvid Liepe: Yes.

Operator: [Operator Instructions] There are no more phone questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any written questions and closing comments.

Ulrika Hallengren: Perfect. Thank you. Have we got any written questions as you can...

Arvid Liepe: Let me double check. Not that I can find. No.

Ulrika Hallengren: No? okay. So of course, you're welcome to come back to us whenever with whatever asked questions. Thank you for this.

Arvid Liepe: Maybe we should conclude. This may actually have been a record quick presentation.

Ulrika Hallengren: Definitely, 42 minutes. It's our quickest [ version ] , I think. We try to be precise and quick, but that was part of it.

Arvid Liepe: Thank you, everyone, for listening in.

Ulrika Hallengren: Thank you.