Q4 2019 Earnings Call

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you ever standing by welcome to Exalt This fourth quarter and full year 2019 earnings call. All participants will be in listen only mode. It question answer session will follow.

The comments by management today's call is being recorded and replays will be available through February six those listening. After today's call should please note that the information provided in this recording will not be update and therefore may no longer be Korea.

I'll now turn the call over to Chris Mecray. Please go ahead Sir.

Thank you and good morning. This is Chris Mecray VP of Investor Relations. We appreciate your continued interest in adult walking you through our fourth quarter and full year 2019 financial results Conference call joining me today, or Robert Bryant, CEO and Sean when CFO .

We released our quarterly financial results and posted a slide presentation to the Investor Relations section of our website <unk> dot com, which will be referencing during this call. Both our prepared remarks. It discussion today may contain forward looking statements, reflecting the company's current view a future events that'll affect on adult is operating and financial performance. These statements involve and.

Certainty than risk and actual results may differ materially and those forward looking statements. Please note. The company is under no obligation to provide updates to these forward looking statements.

And I should also contain non-GAAP financial measures in the appendix. We've included reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures. The most directly comparable GAAP financial measures for additional information regarding forward looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our filings with the FCC.

Separately the Gulf is reviewing strategic alternatives is ongoing we do not have news on that front to share with you, but we will provide updates as warranted.

Well not be addressing the strategic review process any further during this call. Thank you for your ongoing patients.

I'll now turn the call over to Robert.

Thank you, Chris and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us on our call to review, our fourth quarter and for your 2019 results as well as our 2020 gardens.

It's also delivered a strong fourth quarter, our adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS were both in line with our expectations and our free cash flow well exceeded our targets also producing a record annual cash flow result.

Despite fundamental demand headwinds in some end markets linked to an uneven global industrial economy, I'm proud to say that the axalta team executed very well closing out the year by meeting or exceeding key aspects of our financial goals.

The Gulf his vision as a reminder, for our investors and shareholders is to be the preferred coatings partner for customers seeking the most innovative products and services delivered by the most talented team in the industry.

I'm proud to note that the results. We saw this year fully reflect that commitment and hard work by the people of Axalta that our vision lays out.

I want to think our team for the passion for performance they exhibit everyday that enables our innovation and fosters the industry's leading coatings technologies.

Turning to slide three let's take a look at some of our 2019 highlights in more detail.

What do you 19 was not an easy year with demand pressure and global vehicle markets and weakening global manufacturing activity, resulting in volume pressure for the coatings industry.

Fight that exalted net sales held very stable decreasing just 0.5% in the aggregate compared to 2018 before negative foreign currency and divestiture related impacts.

For its also growth engines and performance coatings continue to offset other more cyclical Lee impacted end markets.

Fourth quarter net sales decreased 2.5% year over year, excluding the impacts of foreign exchange and the China joint venture sale.

Net sales continued to benefit from strong price mix tailwinds for the ninth consecutive quarter, which increased 2.5% in the period, while volume reflected slower demand conditions across global industrial markets.

Performance coatings net sales increased 0.3% before FX impact from the China, JV sale, including the benefit of improved price mix in the period.

Volume remained subdued with pressure in industrial coatings, while refinish was stable with essentially flat volume.

But strong growth in North America.

Transportation coatings net sales decreased 7.7% ex FX due to lower volumes broadly, but price mix recapture was a positive offset for the fifth straight quarter in light vehicle.

Enabling higher margins for the segment, even with the volume drag.

Adjusted EBIT of $174 million increased 1.6% year over year, driven by the combined benefits of positive price mix moderate variable cost tailwinds and reduced overall operating expense, notably fourth quarter results also included a headwind of approximately $10 million year over year.

Sure from incentive compensation expense, which was driven principally by our exceptional free cash flow results.

We elevated free cash flow is one of the primary metrics in our global incentive compensation plan for 2019.

We're very pleased that we increased operating margins in a quarter, where volumes were pressured decreasing 5% in the aggregate adjusted EBIT margins for the fourth quarter increased 110 basis points to 15.8% with notable improvement in performance coatings and ongoing recover.

Sorry in transportation coatings.

This was accomplished first through operating discipline and continued axalta way productivity improvement, but also through focused attention on pricing actions across our end markets globally as we seek to recapture lost margin associated with significant cost inflation in the last several years.

For the full year 2019, net sales of 4.5 billion decreased 4.6% from the prior year, but were down only 0.5% before foreign exchange and the China JV sale impact.

Lower volumes from select end markets were largely offset by positive price mix traction oriented to cover cumulative variable cost inflation incurred in the last several years.

Adjusted EBIT of $706 million for the full year 2019 increased 4.7% from 2018.

Significant benefit from price mix, coupled with lower operating expenses were the main positive drivers in the year.

Offset partly by foreign exchange and variable cost headwinds from earlier in the year.

Operating expense included a benefit from lower stock based compensation expense of approximately $21 million, which was largely offset by an increase in global incentive compensation expense previously mentioned for a moderate net benefit for the full year.

We also increased our adjusted EBIT margins by 140 basis points, an impressive achievement in the period of lower volumes from the contraction in global manufacturing activity.

Turning to slide four refinish net sales growth in the fourth quarter of 3.5% ex FX remained strong driven principally by positive price mix in all regions with strong growth contribution from both North America and EMEA.

We continue to displace competitors and key customers, especially within the MISO space in North America.

Refinished demand appears to remain stable globally, and we showed ongoing success in offsetting inflation with price actions during 2019.

We also continue to focus on innovation focused growth.

Including the continued launch new value focused clears and primers in North America, and the extended launch of our new waterborne sealer technology do use with our premium Basecoat systems.

Industrial coatings exhibited weakening demand during the fourth quarter in line with broader industrial economy weakness with net sales decreasing 4.5% ex FX and before the China JV sale impact.

We saw more notable negative inflection in North America, and EMEA, while China showed some more encouraging signs of stability in the fourth quarter price mix continued to display positive trajectory, increasing low single digits in the quarter.

Full year results were also strong.

And we held the end market sales nearly flat down around 1% before foreign currency and the JV sale impact against the challenging macro environment in many geographies.

Deltas outperformance versus the market rates benefited from new product introductions in the fourth quarter. This included launching new vehicle wheel related products to expand our presence in that market and the launch of a new high performance Cop code for the agriculture and construction market.

In our powder business, we developed a new robust anti gassing product for galvanized steel applications and expanded our metallic bonded powder product portfolio.

Light vehicle net sales were down 6.7% for the quarter ex FX.

Volumes were down high single digits with decreases seen in all regions generally in sync with global OEM production patterns.

For the quarter Global light vehicle production declined 5.4%, including a 1% increase in China against an easier comparison from the prior year and an 8% decrease in North America inclusive of the impact from a customer strike in the period.

And transportation coatings, we continue to drive innovation to support long term growth for the sector.

In the fourth quarter, we focused on advanced modeling techniques color development and measurement of coatings for radar treatment facility and light our reflectivity.

This aligns the business with increased sensor usage related to both driver assisted as well as economists vehicle adoption.

Commercial vehicle net sales decreased 11.2% ex FX in the fourth quarter.

Global truck markets have experienced the downturn beginning in the second half of 2019, while North America production was also impacted by a customer strike in the period.

Price mix was down slightly in the period inclusive of negative mix impact from Europe .

Regarding our balance sheet and cash flows fourth quarter free cash flow of nearly 250 million improved markedly versus the prior year quarter and we exceeded the upper end of our full year range with 475 million in free cash flow.

We reprioritized free cash flow at the start of 2019, and we're very pleased by the strong result delivered by our teams.

The strong cash flow result.

Resulted in our finishing the year with total cash on the balance sheet of over $1 billion for the first time and our operating history and with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.0 times, which is a significant step down since the end of 2018.

Turning now to a few manufacturing highlights we made significant progress during 2019 on our Belgium site closure and are on track to complete the project in the first quarter of 2020.

The Belgian plant was closed during the fourth quarter and the resin production transfer will be completed around the end of the first quarter.

We are now starting to see some of the productivity benefits of this project after a tremendous effort from our teams to execute on this major initiatives.

Which is designed to broadly lower our cost structure in the region with benefit accruing to most of our business segments in EMEA.

We continued our sustainability efforts focused on environmental protection, social performance human rights and good governance in the fourth quarter, we completed the rollout of our new safety commitment, which we call driving perfect performance to all remaining axalta sites.

Our 2019 global total recordable incident rate was 0.27, a top decile result, within the us paint and coatings industry.

We thank all our employees for the great attention placed on safe work practices.

We also continue to collaborate with our customers suppliers and industry groups to advance responsible sourcing practices throughout our supply chain.

Finally, we are proud to have been recognized at the top 50, SG company by Investor's business Daily in November .

During the fourth quarter, we reassessed plans that we had begun executing to expand our China operations footprint.

We are adjusting these expansion plans and we will now focus on shifting production largely within our current site footprint, which is expected to result in improved returns relative to our prior plans.

As a result, we took charges of 17.7 million in the fourth quarter, primarily associated with this decision, which underscores our commitment to ensuring that return on capital remains front and center in all of our decision making.

With that I will now turn the call over to Sean who will share some further detail on our financial results.

Thanks, Robert and good morning, turning to slide five fourth quarter net sales before FX impacts decreased 4.5% year over year, including a 2.8% decrease from performance coatings and 7.7% from transportation coatings.

These results included the 2% impact from the sale, but China joint venture interest in the second quarter, meaning that organic net sales decreased 2.5% overall for the quarter.

The 5% lower volume for the quarter was driven heavily by transportation coatings, while the positive price mix contribution came principally from the from the performance coatings segment.

So we saw continued strong progress on price and light vehicle in the quarter, which is now the fifth quarter in a row.

FX translation impact continue to moderate somewhat with a 1.3% headwinds reflected in the fourth quarter, given ongoing euro weakness coupled with impact from the Brazilian real the Chinese renminbi and the Argentine peso.

Q4, adjusted EBIT of 174 million was a 1.6% increase versus the prior year adjusted EBIT margins increased a 110 basis points to 15.8% in the fourth quarter.

The higher income result reflects strong drop through a price and mix benefits as well as positive contribution from lower variable on operating expenses, partially offset by the impact lower volumes in the period, most notably in transportation coatings.

As Robert mentioned, we also saw headwinds in the quarter of approximately $10 million from annual incentive compensation expense, primarily associated with our outperformance on delivering a strong free cash flow results.

Turning to slide six performance coatings Q4, net sales decreased 2.8% year over year, excluding a 1.2% FX headwinds and increased 2.3%, excluding the impact of the China JV sale.

The net sales result was driven by 3% increase in average price mix benefits offset in large part by lower volumes.

We finished reported 3.5% net sales growth ex FX driven by improved price mix in the period with product mix being a positive contributor to the results. In addition to improved average selling prices.

Refinished solve renewed volume growth in North America, offset by slightly lower volume from the other regions in the period.

Industrial net sales ex FX decreased 12.2% year over year with a 4.5% decrease excluding the loss of sales associated with the Chinese JV.

Industrial topline pressure increased in the period with notable impacts in both Europe and North America.

We believe this correlates with broader macro softening in the period for industrial production gauges.

By end business, all saw some volume pressure, except coil coatings and okay. There are also appeared to be broader stabilization of liquid industrial coatings in China.

Performance coatings reported Q4, adjusted EBIT of $118 million at 6.8% year over year increase with ongoing solid price mix benefits offset to an extent by lower volume and slight FX headwind effects.

Q4 segment adjusted EBIT margins of 16.2% increased from 14.5% year over year benefiting from price actions mix improvement and companywide productivity actions as we have worked to offset raw material inflation over the last several years.

Turning to slide seven transportation coatings, net sales decreased 7.7% year over year in the quarter before 1.5% currency headwinds.

Segment volume saw more notable pressure in the period decreasing 9.2%, including impacts from both light vehicle and commercial vehicle offset partly by continued progress in price recapture.

Light vehicle Q4, net sales decreased 6.7% before a 1.6% FX headwinds.

Volume decreased high single digits due to global production cutbacks and including the strike impact from in North America customer earlier in the fourth quarter.

Average price mix increased low single digits in the quarter as we continue to focus on offsetting prior variable cost inflation index, which are still not fully recovered.

Commercial vehicle Q4, net sales decreased 11.2% before FX headwinds of 1.1%.

This reduction was driven by lower global truck production, which accelerated in the quarter as well as by slower production in certain non truck vehicle markets overall truck production decreased 9.6% in the quarter and current global forecast for class four through eight truck production continue to point to incremental pressure in 2020 with Orion.

Option expected to be down, 8.5%, mostly driven by an expected decrease in class eight truck truck production of 11.5%.

Price mix was relatively neutral in the period inclusive of mix headwinds and the math.

Despite net sales headwinds in the quarter transportation coatings generate a Q4 adjusted EBIT of 26 million equal to the result in Q4 2018 with associated margins of 6.9% compared with 6.4% in the prior year driven by the drop through a price and mix benefits as well as modest variable cost benefits in the period.

On slide eight looking at consolidated 2019 exalted results year was a mixture of very strong new product growth progress across the business as well some fundamental demand headwinds that masks otherwise strong execution.

We showed strong realization of price mix recapture with a 3.2% average increase among the best of the sector.

We also continued to expand margins and closed the gap that opened the beginning in 2017 with the variable cost inflation cycle.

Adjusted EBIT margins of Exalt expanded 140 basis points to 15.8% for the full year.

On the other side of the ledger volume headwinds exceeded earlier expectations as the pace of industrial recession in various regions accelerated as the year progressed, while automotive remain to volume headwinds for the second year in a row.

Finally, we saw continued FX pressure and did not see any material M&A benefit with the most meaningful impact transaction during the year from the Chinese JV interest sale, which eliminated low margin volumes in China.

So despite some persistent global industrial headwinds at higher than expected FX headwinds, which caused us to Miss our original sales growth targets. We produced operating profit in earnings which both met expectations communicated last April when we began to report on the current basis.

Adjusted EBIT of $706 million compared with April guidance of $675 million to $725 million and adjusted EPS of $1.80 compared with guidance of $1.68 to $1.88 given at the same time.

The adjusted EBITDA result was reported close to the low end of the beginning guidance range attributable to previously mentioned volume FX and incentive compensation expense headwinds.

Turning to slide nine cash and cash equivalents totaled 1.02 billion at year end, our first close over 1 billion.

Total reported debt was 3.8 billion, resulting in a net debt balance of $2.8 billion versus 3 billion at September Thirtyth.

Our net leverage ratio was 3.0 times down from 3.2 times, a third quarter ends and 3.4 times at year end 2018.

Free cash flow in the fourth quarter totaled 248 million a significant increase compared to 220 million in the fourth quarter 2018, driven by increased adjusted EBIT as well as by improved net working capital outcomes.

For the full year free cash flow of 475 million was a significant improvement versus 362 million. In 2018. We would also note two other somewhat offsetting items within free cash flows results, which included the cash outflow of approximately $26 million in the fourth quarter for retention awards and advisory costs associated with.

The strategic review.

But offset by lower than previously guided Capex, which ended the year to 113 million versus the latest guide of 130 million.

Our working capital to full year net sales ratio at year end was 8.8% compared with 10.1% a year ago, which is an improvement versus our previously targeted levels of 10% to 11%.

Subsequent to year end, we utilized our excess liquidity to prepay $300 million of our US dollar term loan to lower our cash interest expense for 2020.

Turning to slide 10, we've provided financial guidance for 2020.

Our 2020, guys construct assumes relatively stable market conditions similar to those seen in the fourth quarter of 2019.

We assume global industrial production will be roughly 1.4%.

Global auto builds down about 0.5% and global commercial vehicle builds down approximately 8.5%.

We also assume a relatively stable macroeconomic and political environment, including no year over year inflation in raw material inputs.

Like everyone. We are still assessing the impact of the current a virus outbreak on our businesses inside and outside of China. Therefore, our guidance excludes any impacts from this element, which we can't quantify as of yet.

Net sales ex FX and M&A is expected to be 1% to 2%. We expect to see about 30 million of remaining comparison impacts from the second quarter 2019, China JV interest sale until we have fully lapped that transaction.

In 2020 core growth is largely anticipated from refinish, while other end markets are expected to remain other some cyclical pressure given slower global macro trends for industrial production currently.

And transportation, we expect some that sales pressure from commercial vehicle due to slower global truck production, though the segment should see stability relative to 2019 steep headwinds in light vehicle.

We expect price mix to be a positive contributor to net sales were committed to offsetting inflation impacts and end markets, where we have not fully recaptured the loss margin from 2017 through 2019 inflation.

Adjusted EBIT is anticipated in a range of 710 $750 million.

Which implies margins of 15.8% to 16.6% compared to 15.8% in 2019.

Margins could further benefit from volume leverage in select markets, coupled with anticipated drop through a price mix realization.

We also expect flat to modest benefits from variable costs, we enter 2020 with modest embedded deflation given input pricing during the fall, but we face continued inflation headwinds from some elements of our input baskets.

And we expect full year feedstock pricing at fairly stable levels year over year.

The consolidated adjusted EBIT Guide includes the add back of step up depreciation and amortization of 105 million versus $120 million in 2019 due to the roll off of aspects of purchase accounting that had been established back in 2013.

Accelerated depreciation and amortization of 7 million associated with the Belgian plant closure is also added back and this compares with 24 million in 2019 as the site is expected to end production in the first quarter at 2020.

Overall, DNA guidance is $330 million down from 353 million in 2019, reflecting these differences.

Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $1.85 and $2 incorporating an assumed tax rate of around 22% and assumes no incremental share repurchases for our normal guidance practice.

Adjusted EBIT and adjusted EPS include headwinds from stock based compensation.

Which we anticipate at 28 million in 2020 versus $16 million in 2019.

Capex is assumed to increase to 160 million in 2020. This incorporates spending associated with core operations, including productivity projects. The Belgian plant move completion, and substantives ERP system conversion costs.

We launched a global S&P upgrade project and late fourth quarter 2019.

This is going to be a three to four year initiative with associated investment of around $170 million over the period.

This program will ultimately enable substantial future savings, which we believe will more than offset the upfront investment by Catalyzing business process productivity at a foundational level on the company, we expect to provide incremental updates as we progress through this project.

Free cash flow is expected to be between 450 and $490 million. This is inclusive of our range of operating earnings and broadly stable assumed core business working capital ratios.

We also assume approximately $75 million and severance outflows embedded in the free cash flow range or about 20 million incremental into 2019, actuals dictated largely by the timing of our Belgium closure employee departures.

Regarding phasing of earnings in 2020, we expect the first quarter to reflect approximately 22% of total adjusted EBIT again before any quantified the impact from the current a virus outbreak.

We expect the second half of 2020 broader net sales performance to exceed the first half given normal first quarter seasonality as well as anticipated demand improvement as the year progresses.

I'll now turn the call back over to Robert for concluding comments.

Thank you Sean.

In summary, we're very pleased with our financial and operational performance for the fourth quarter and the full year 2019, Despite volume softness we were able to achieve our profitability targets through cost management and price increases we executed on several key projects to competitively positioned exalt for the future including footprint.

Segments in Europe .

And China as well as the launch of our S&P Esfour hundred upgrade.

We continue to innovate in our products services and go to market strategies, including ongoing R&D and technology investments of approximately 4% of net sales the highest in the coatings industry.

Our innovation success was well recognized by our customers and the industry at large as evidenced by several key innovation quality and sustainability Awards, we received in 2019.

As we look forward to 2020, we will remain focused on pursuing sales growth opportunities offsetting past inflation with appropriate actions to recover value adjusting our cost structure to market conditions with additional exult way efforts.

Leveraging innovation to create value for our customers generating significant free cash flow and achieving the highest return possible on our asset base.

Finally, I'd like to note that none of our existing progress in growth would be possible without the hard work and dedication of our global team.

The exalted team collectively delivered in 2019 and I'd like to express my sincere appreciation for the hard work of our teams around the globe to make this possible.

This concludes our prepared remarks, we now be pleased to answer any questions. So operator would you. Please open up the lines for USA.

Yes. Thank you.

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Our first question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

David long here for David I guess first question just on price versus draw in terms of your four segments, where are you still see a gap and when do you expect that cap to close.

Okay.

As far as all the segments as Weve I think previously stated as far out performance coatings, we are fully caught up in as far as the price.

Cost gap.

Light vehicle still lagging a bit I think we've made a lot of progress in 2019, we got about 2.2% in price over the course of the full year about 1.9 in the fourth quarter. We are still lagging there and that continues to be a focus for the company.

And then just in terms of the cost saving program, how much still left index out away program and I guess do need additional cost saving programs in 20.

We achieved target.

Yes, so when we announced axalta way to back in 2018.

We said about $200 million that was going to come and ratably, so about $100 million into the overall project. So we would anticipate another $50 million coming through for 2020.

Yes.

Our next question is from Robert Kessler with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Hi, guys. This is Anthony on for Bob You guys mentioned, an expectation for improvement in the second half of 2020 relative to the first half can you just talk through what gives you confidence and our recovery into agent to what businesses or geography, as you might be seeing some green shoots sir.

So I mean lot of our guidance is falling industrial production trends as well as we're seeing recovery as far as I.

I just data on light vehicle.

Yes, certainly there are elements around stability of refinish.

Our business performed extremely well for 2019 and the refinish end market, we continue to see buying stability for 2020, and we continue to see and expect pricing in that business.

But thats by and large kind of how we're seeing in 2020.

Okay and.

And then just as a follow ups.

How should we think about your ability to recapture price and transportation in light of the volume headwinds you're expecting.

And can you segment year or price expectations between light vehicle and commercial just given they and a half percent decline to term out you're expecting for there. Thanks.

As we.

Look at the light vehicle end market. Our goal of course always is to lower our cost structure.

Continually in that in that line of and that line of business internally to maintain to maintain margin. However, an increased margin.

However, with the light vehicle customer customer base. They do recognize the value that we are creating from them from a new product innovation as well as from a service component.

Have a number of products that will continue to roll through in that business that just by virtue of the new product.

Reductions as well as additional business, we've picked up that are at more current.

Overall material pricing baselines.

We should see some some natural pickup there that would offset.

We believe any any softness so overall as we think about as we think about it we're looking for a.

Fairly flattish to low single digit year.

In terms of pricing.

In that end market.

Our next question is from my thesis with Barclays. Please proceed.

Thanks, Good morning, guys.

Good morning.

I guess first question on the China footprint decision I think in the release you pointed to evolving market conditions driving your decision. So I guess from when you. Initially started the engineering work to today as demand in the region just not developed as you anticipated because I guess I'm, assuming the capital cost control wasn't the issue.

Correct as we've looked at forecast in that region, we had what were overall.

Optimistic on China, and the growth that will occur there over the over the long term. However in the in the shorter term projected bills have pulled back half pull back quite a bit and therefore, we have adjusted our cat our capex planning their accordingly to essentially put in and build out.

Additional capacity at our at our existing facilities in order to meet market demand so our commitment.

To China, our commitment to our light vehicle customers in that market is an unwavering.

We've been present in China for more than 30 years, and I expect we'll be a major player in China 30 years from now as well however in the short term we did consider it prudent.

To put in some of the required capacity expansion to meet the market demand that will still grow in a more modular fashion just given the development of projected builds in the country.

Got it that makes a lot of sense and then bigger picture question just on refinish, I guess, where I think about that business I've always thought of refinish being this steady eddy 3% to 4% annual grower, but if I look at your revenue the past few years. It seems refinish as kind of stuck in this one seven to 1.8 billion.

$1 range. So I guess can you maybe just talk about the underlying profit growth.

You've seen in this business over the past few years versus the flat top line and just how you think about structural growth going forward there.

We continue to believe that the refinish market.

Over the medium in the long term will grow and isn't and is an attractive is an attractive market.

I actually saw in the fourth quarter, some more favorable trends than we saw for example in in the third quarter and that's not uncommon that you see quarter to quarter variation in India business is we've highlighted previously, though the global market shift from solvent borne two waterborne products does create structural volume.

Production since the waterborne products do require less product to apply and there's also a mix effect from the growth of MSR, those who are more efficient with paint usage and who mostly use waterborne products now that being said, we did see refinish volumes, a little bit more subdued globally.

Despite the growth that we saw in the period in North America that we highlighted and we believe that that relates mostly to economic conditions, which had been a little bit more challenged globally.

Thank you.

Our next question is from hundred.

Fifth Swanson with RBC capital markets. Please proceed.

Hi, sorry, excuse me.

Just curious.

Has any of the reason developments in China as far as that krona virus and everything entered into your thoughts.

And if so what do you assess is potentially the impact.

And then secondly, as far as the price cost relationship goes I understand that year.

Largely caught up.

Just curious about potential for further price initiatives in case inflation does crop up thanks.

So here's what we know so far as you know as of this morning. There are approximately I think 7700 confirmed cases and about 170 170 deaths.

[music].

We were expecting most business in China to resume around January 30 Onest.

Before the Corona virus outbreak as of yesterday. The government has pushed out the resumption of business activities to February 3rd for a large number of provinces in cities and that includes our northern China plant.

In February 10 for a smaller group of provinces in cities that includes our Shanghai plan.

Now we have seen many of our light vehicle customers that have pushed out their production schedules by between one and three weeks at this point.

And we've also heard that some car dealerships are expected to remain closed until well after.

The Chinese new year ends we've also seen some of our customers in refinish and industrial in the light vehicle.

Notify us of their intention to delay or push out there their order somewhat.

I'd say at this point, perhaps the biggest unknown is the impact on logistics.

Roads in and out of some of the major cities are closed.

And the impact on product movement shipping and in doubt raw materials is not yet clear.

However, above all our primary goals, our employee safety and taking care of our customers and we've taken a multitude of steps to ensure that we're doing the best both of them.

Like others, we will continue to monitor the situation closely.

And be in a position to provide a better update on any potential impact on the business as we know more.

Your second question I'll, let Sean answer that one yes. So currently the construct topline assumes we're going to get price in refinish and modest price in light vehicle.

Thats, assuming that now it's relatively flat raw material backdrop.

I think if things were to change on us and where to see oil spike and some of the slide that demand dynamics to change and we quickly have to react and look at our industrial business for pushing price like we've done in past years.

Great I'll turn it over thanks.

Our next question is from Josh Spector with MBS. Please proceed.

Yes, Hey, guys just a question on refinish.

Wondering if you could provide some more context about what you're seeing maybe specifically within Europe , and maybe how far down that was in the quarter and if they see anything changing over the next couple of quarters here.

Refinish in in Europe remains.

Relatively stable, we did see some softness.

Some softness.

In some markets in indicative of the overall global.

Overall economic conditions.

In that in that market, but overall it remained fairly stable for us.

So then if North America was up where was the major offset or is North America only slightly.

So North America was only slightly up.

Volume, where it was down slightly in Europe , but it was a relatively flat performance I mean, we weren't we're not talking big numbers here and that's why you're ending up with a net result.

About down 0.3% globally.

Okay. Thanks, that's helpful and just on your Capex guidance for 2020.

Was wondering if you could just kind of put that into some larger buckets just from the standpoint on what you would consider kind of base maintenance gross the ERP spend I know timing was an impact on your 2019 number but just wondering kind of whats the flex within that 160 as you look at 2020.

Okay.

Yes, so certainly the biggest aspect is the S&P S. Four Hannah about $40 million maintenance typically runs $40 million to $50 million, and then growth and productivity at the difference.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Christopher Parkinson with Credit Suisse. Please proceed.

Hi is higher sign on for Chris Thanks for taking my question.

On on Refinish can you discuss what you're seeing in terms of.

Pace of MISO consolidation, and maybe how you're framing the share gain opportunity.

And maybe any differences you're seeing between Europe and the U.S.

MISO consolidation as you know in terms of act the number of body shops that were that that were acquired.

By major OEM Assos, we've seen that really excuse me peak in terms of the activity of all the major msos.

In the into 2016 2017 time period in terms of just pure pure acquisition activity. What we're seeing now more as there are still acquisitions, but we're seeing more brownfield.

In Greenfield investment by many of the of the MISO players in in North America, We do expect that MISO players will continue to grow and represent a larger portion of the market overtime. We did see of course more recently the merger.

Have a couple of the largest msos in the North America space, which of course was a major consolidation event.

But in terms of each one of vmosos the sheer number of individual body shops that they're acquiring that has slowed down from the pace. It was a few years ago.

In terms of in terms of Europe , I'd characterize it as overall market conditions, and then more axalta specific opportunities from an overall market perspective, as we highlighted the market has been relatively flat.

We believe that heavily linked.

To just the global economic.

Activity that that we're seeing in the region and also impacted somewhat by some of the more country specific situations in Europe , such as such as Brexit.

For exalt, we have our very strong market position in several of the of the larger markets within the region.

However, we have a lower market share in some of the periphery countries in the region and also eastern Europe , and Russia, So thats, a nice growth opportunity for us and our global refinish team in EMEA Refinish team are both very focused on that growth opportunity.

Our next question is from Stephen names with Morgan Stanley . Please proceed.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question I.

I guess a quick one on the S&P project I know, it's an early innings, but any idea of I guess, maybe how to quantify the future savings and you're seeing in excess of the investment but.

Any early learnings and how we should be thinking about how to quantify the benefits. Thanks.

Yes. So we're extremely early into the project just kicking it off in December formally we are going to provide incremental updates as we progressed through the project.

We can help you with exactly how to quantify but when we think about the underlying productivity. It's it's going to be extending from all the way around pricing practices to back office support all the way through working capital improvement and we would expect onetime benefits as far as working capital and then sustainable savings as it relates to back office and productivity across a number of.

The functional areas.

I would just add to what the what Sean said.

Many ERP upgrades do not generate the benefits that they are projected to.

However, I would remind you that in exult. This case, we're using an instance of S&P that's more than 20 years old and that was highly customized by Dupont. So we believe the benefits that we will achieve are actually very real.

Our next question is from Stephen Byrne with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.

Hi, This is loop washer on for Steve I wanted to ask did you see any market share shifts in refinish.

In the fourth quarter or kind of throughout 2019, and if so did any kind of technological advances propel that either from yourself for competitors.

Theres not a a regularly updated reliable refinish market share study.

Essentially to have a keen view on that you have to commission a market study and go out in.

Conduct surveys and pull together a statistically reasonable enough sample to really have a keen a keen view on that however, we do.

Through our shop management software as well as other tools that we have have a pretty good view on the number of shops that that we service in any ads and drops and so from a net shop count we have seen a shop count increase.

As we highlighted in North America, we have increased our penetration of some of our largest existing MSO customers. So I think we feel fairly confident that in North America. We have we have continued to gain share. We also look at shops and body body shop activity in other.

Regions of the of the World and that also indicates that were that we're performing quite well I would highlight from a product technology perspective that our species hecker.

Solve waterborne product is the most productive.

In the industry and that continues to enable us to to win market share, especially with customers who value high degrees of productivity in their operation.

Our next question is from Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Hey, guys nice ended the year.

But in terms of your guidance for Q1, I think you said, 22% as either earnings or EBIT would be in Q1, and if I just did that off EBIT. It does seem like you'll be able to generate double digit growth kind of 160 versus 144, it's pretty good grow. So can you maybe walk through.

Why Q1 starts off pretty pretty strong.

One of the bigger biggest developments is purely raw materials. So if you recall at the end of 18, we are sitting on three months of high dollar inventory, which all turned back in the first quarter.

Thats, probably the biggest element from a lot perspective, and then we'll continue to see price realization coming through.

As it relates to the rigs refinish side of the business.

Got it and.

Our next question is from Grand Jim Punjabi with Baird. Please proceed.

Hey, guys good morning.

I guess I'm, sorry, if I missed this but can you touch on how you're thinking about the weighting of EBITDA or earnings or whatever metric you want to use for 2020 on a quarterly basis, and then specific to for Q, what was cost inflation year over year run central cost inflation during the quarter and how are we thinking about the next at the first half of 2020. Thanks.

Let me take the second part of your question and I'll, let Sean take the first part of your question Ghansham.

In terms of raw material inflation.

We did see some tailwinds as we came into the as we came into the end of the year and on a full year basis out of Cogs level.

It was.

Less than than 1% than 1% benefit.

What we expect to see is some benefit in the in the first quarter from a raw material perspective. However.

Given the most recent projections that we have we expect those prices to go up during the course of the year, but perhaps not dramatically, hence our our projection that raw material inflation will be flat to relatively down for the full year 2020 at least in terms of how we're thinking about our guidance cut stroke.

Yeah.

Yes, and as it relates to sequential EBIT and EBITDA contributions for the first quarter, we're estimating at 22%.

And then the next three quarters, essentially pro rata with a slightly heavier weighting towards the second half of 2020.

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with Jpmorgan. Please proceed.

Good morning itself could for Jeff how are you.

Good morning, silky how're you.

Good.

I wondered if you could quantify how much of.

From a tale of benefit you didnt realize in the fourth quarter and how much of restructuring benefit that you realized in the fourth quarter in dollar terms.

Yes, so we historically have not quantified all those elements certainly productivity on this partially offsetting inflation that we saw and 29 team.

The fourth quarter as it relates to raw materials, we did see an inflection point so from a quarter over quarter that was the first quarter that we actually saw a benefit it was fairly modest.

But it's giving us some comfort as we head into 2020.

Looking at more of a flat environment for the year.

Our next question is from P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please proceed.

Hi, Good morning, this is Eric Petri down for Pizza.

Good morning, Eric.

And then a subdued volume environment, how do you view M&A or bolt ons versus continuing to improve your net leverage ratio target of two and a half times.

Yes.

COVID-19 was a little bit of a pause year for us in terms of completing acquisitions, which we believe is partly due to obviously focused on other matters, including our our strategic review.

And the slower M&A environment in 2019 for larger coatings assets, which is where we are trying to focus more.

That being said, we havent seen any transactions come come to market recently that we really viewed as critical targets for exalted now we continue to believe that the long term consolidation trend is here to see is here to stay and we have many identifiable targets.

Of interest and we will continue to to pursue those.

As we think about capital capital allocation.

Our goal is to continue to pay down to pay down debt to opportunistically.

Repurchase shares and then to destin, an appropriate amount of capital to M&A and as I mentioned, we've been focused more on medium size to larger size M&A targets that can really move the needle.

For the for the company during the course of this year and as we come into 2020.

Our next question is from Mike Harrison with Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed.

Hi, good morning.

Was wondering morning, but.

The 250, new products that you introduced in 2019 can you talk about the topline contribution.

Those.

And maybe help us understand what portion of those would break out in refinish industrial and light vehicle and then also.

Give a sense of the selling cycle, how long would we typically expected to take from the time, you introduce or product the time that sees more widespread customer adoption. Thank you.

And that's always a difficult question to ask because you get into the are difficult, but my question to answer I should say because you get into the question of what exactly is a isn't new products. So you may have an existing product, but if there's a new color development do you actually count that as a new product and there's not really from what we've seen.

In our industry, a consistent a consistent definition of that.

We we think about targeting more than 250, new products, new product innovations, which we consider is more significant variations are modifications to our products as our as our definition and new product development occurs in all for all four of our end markets.

Perhaps in terms of actual number of new product developments industrial is the end market, where we have the greatest number of new product introductions because of the sheer number of end markets that the industrial business.

Actually serves.

In terms of how long how long it takes us a product to to get up to speed and really contribute that that varies but you can think about time horizon of about six to 12 months.

In most cases, depending upon whether the product is going direct to a particular customer or whether it's going through distribution initially.

Our next question is from Laura.

With Exane. Please proceed.

Yes, good morning, guys.

Just one more question.

I was wondering I mean last time, we had couple of years of.

Disinflation deflationary pressure, we ended that we've given the lack of pricing discipline, especially in autos OEM.

I guess back in 2017 I was wondering if you could talk about the risk of that's happening again DC.

In particular thinking about some of you all key competitors, who may not be as disciplined and focused on pricing and margins as you all.

With regard to the raw materials cycle.

And that happens in coatings and how different companies different companies react to that I think all of us.

As key players in the coatings industry focus on creating the most value possible.

The most value possible for our customers and when there is inflation, we're trying to offset that inflation with cost cutting internally. So that we can I don't have to pass on.

Too much of that to our customers, but there are incidences, where the inflation inflationary cycle is so quick or so large in total and total magnitude where coatings players have no choice, but to but to pass on price to the end to the end customers.

So I think thats, how most players in the industry think about it.

This concludes our question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

Hi, it's Chris Mecray. Thank you all for joining us this morning.

We we appreciate your interest and our available.

Through the day and going forward. If you have any questions. Thanks again have a good day.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference you may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

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