Q1 2021 Cedar Fair LP Earnings Call

Good day and thank you for standing by welcome to Cedar Fair Entertainment Company plenty plenty line of first quarter earnings call.

At this time all participants are in a listen only mode.

The speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

Ask a question during this session you will need to pass star one on your telephone line if you.

Western with yourself from the queue. Please press the pound key.

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

You require any further assistance. Please press star zero. Thank you I would now like to hand, the conference over to your host Mr. Michael Russell Corporate director of Investor Relations, Sir the floor is yours.

Thank you.

Good morning, and welcome to our 2021 first quarter earnings Conference call.

Earlier. This morning, we distributed via wire service our earnings press release, a copy of which is available under the news tab of our investors website.

<unk> Dot Cedar fair Dot com.

On the call with me. This morning are Richard Zimmerman, Cedar Fair, President and CEO, and Brian Witherow, Our executive Vice President and CFO.

Before we begin I need to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal Securities laws. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those described in such statements for a more detailed discussion of these rescue may refer to the company's filings with the SEC.

In compliance with the SEC's regulation FD. This webcast is being made available to the media and the general public.

As well as analysts and investors.

Because the webcast is open to all constituents and prior notification has been widely in unselected disseminated all content on this call will be considered totally disclose.

With that I would like to introduce our CEO Richard Zimmerman Richard.

Thank you Michael and thanks to everyone for joining us on the call. This morning.

We trust that you're well.

Hope that springtime has brought us sense of renewal and optimism to your businesses colleagues families and friends.

On today's earnings call. We will cover two main topics as usual, we will discuss our quarterly results and near term financial outlook as well as update you on park operations. Additionally, we want to start today's call with a discussion of the key components of our business optimization program, which is already well underway.

As I mentioned on our last earnings call. We've used the past year as an opportunity to take a step back and reassess nearly every aspect of our company.

Something I've been referring to internally as the great reset.

The pandemic, while enormously challenging to our business has allowed us to rethink our long term strategy with the ultimate goal of driving profitable and sustainable growth in our business.

The outcome of our efforts was the development of our business optimization program, which was designed to streamline our business processes.

Realized efficiencies that improve our financial performance and bring new ways of thinking to how we entertain our guests Ulf.

Ultimately the initiatives within the business optimization program will ensure that we can not only meet but exceed the expectations of our guests and associates now and for many years to come.

To ensure the success of our optimization efforts and maximize returns we engaged outside consultants to assist with design and implementation and to provide added bandwidth and a fresh perspective.

It's a dynamic process that we expect will evolve over time.

But it currently consists of multiple initiatives focused on high value areas to produce a better guest experience and improve profitability.

Implementation of these initiatives will occur over the next six to 12 months, while maximum returns may take two to three years to fully realize.

Brian will provide details on the financial implications of our business optimization program in a moment, but for now let me provide some color on the key aspects of the plan.

Strategically we have broken our efforts into two core components revenue enhancements and cost efficiencies on.

On the revenue front, we are focused on continuing much of the work started pre pandemic to enhance the guest experience and meet changing consumer behaviors and preferences.

On the cost front, we are focused on ensuring we are operating as efficiently as possible at both the corporate and park levels and that we have the appropriate organizational structure in place to maximize results.

Looking more closely at the cost side.

Our efforts can be broken down into three productivity areas organizational redesign.

<unk> non head count operating cost and optimize park level labor.

On the Org design work, our outside consultants are assisting us with a comprehensive review of organizational structures throughout the company.

The main objectives are to identify cost efficiencies expand our capabilities and improve our decision making.

The first step in the process will be consolidating certain administrative functions and work streams into a more centralized shared service center.

This will create operational efficiencies and allow park leadership teams the opportunity to focus on what is most important delivering the best possible experience to both our guests and our associates.

The efforts to expand the shared services centers are underway and will continue over the next 12 months as we take a deliberate but disciplined approach to ensure a smooth and seamless transition.

Next centralized resources will be added to support robust business intelligence and financial planning and analysis functions with a focus on improving capabilities to help our teams make better data driven decisions and drive greater returns.

The build out of our business intelligence and <unk> teams is well underway and I believe both groups will make a meaningful contribution to our performance.

The second productivity initiative is the reduction of non head count operating cost, which incorporate spending in nearly every aspect of our business.

Everything from how much we pay for maintenance materials and office supplies to the contracts we negotiate on major ride purchases is in scope and the upside is meaningful.

Capitalizing fully on this initiative won't happen overnight, but based on what I've seen thus far it promises to produce meaningful cost savings and systematic improvements in other words.

I am confident that this is a high return initiatives that will create substantial value.

We are also focused on reviewing our strategic approach for each key cost area, including big dollar items like advertising.

With our parks reopening shortly our marketing teams have implemented more cost efficient and flexible advertising programs for 2021 season actions that will result in significant savings without sacrificing the impact and effectiveness of the overall program.

The third and final productivity initiative is the optimization of park level labor.

As we have noted.

Seasonal labor represents close to 30% of our total operating costs and is an area that has seen significant pressure in both availability and affordability.

To address these challenges several years ago, we established a workforce optimization committee tasked with tightening up our labor models. We also began a gradual implementation of a new Kronos based workforce management solution, which will be operational on opening day at all but our two schlitterbahn water parks.

Both of which will be up and running on the new system at the start of the 2022 season.

The Kronos platform provides our park teams with better tools for managing their labor force in real time as well as improved data analytics that will help us better align staffing with guest demand.

Optimizing seasonal labor will be even more important going forward as we confront the growing challenges with labor availability.

We believe maximizing labor hour efficiencies will be key to offsetting some portion of the pressures we're seeing on seasonal wage rates.

Moving to the revenue side many of the near term initiatives within our business optimization program can be summed up under one key strategy, providing guests with compelling experiences and conveniences and an evolving consumer landscape.

To that end, we are ramping up our efforts around the introduction of new consumer facing technologies aimed at eliminating pain points for our guests and improving customer satisfaction ultimately leading to higher demand for what we offer.

Our efforts will feature a continued rollout and use of guests convenient technologies, such as advanced reservation systems mobile food ordering expanded online retail and contactless payment options, including a move by several of our parks to full cashless operations later this year.

We have also kicked off a complete strategic review of our park mobile apps with a goal of adding enhanced functionality better park information and other general improvements that simplify the park visit and provide more opportunities for our guests to have fun.

Over the last several years, we have also seen how optimizing pricing and promotions can drive attendance and admissions revenue growth and the revenue management team. We built to address this has done an outstanding job.

The expansion of these resources, coupled with advanced business intelligence capabilities will enable us to dynamically price more broadly across the business and drive real revenue growth through increased transaction counts and better pricing decisions throughout the season.

While it will take time to fully implement and mature all of these initiatives. We are confident that they will have a meaningful impact on our operating results. We look forward to updating you on our continued progress over the coming quarters.

I'll pause here to allow Brian to review, our first quarter results and the impact of our business optimization efforts Brian.

Thanks, Richard and good morning to everyone on the call I'll start with a recap of our first quarter results and our outlook around liquidity before discussing the expected financial impact of the business optimization program Richard outlined the fair.

First I need to remind you that due to the business disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic financial results for the 2021 first quarter are not comparable to results from prior years.

And responsive spread of the Corona virus and in compliance with California mandates full park operations at Knott's Berry farm, our only year round Park remains suspended in the first quarter and we were limited to hosting our culinary festival.

Results for such festivals or not or are included in non park revenues are not included in the company's attendance or in park per capita spending data as.

As we announced last quarter. Our 2021 operating strategy is designed to maximize the results for our seasonally weighted second half by scheduling park openings beginning in May taking advantage of what we anticipated would be a broad rollout of vaccines. During the first half of the year and optimizing cash burn and liquidity when operating restrictions remain the tightest.

As expected during the first quarter of 2021, and we had zero operating days compared with 90 operating days in the same period last year.

For the quarter ended March 28, 2021, net revenues totaled $10 million versus 54 million for the first quarter of 2020 <unk>.

Approximately 75% of first quarter net revenues were generated from the sale of food merchandise and gains associated with the culinary event hosted by Knott's Berry farm and amateur sports tournaments hosted at the Cedar Point Sports Center the.

The decrease in net revenues was the result of a 936000 visit decrease in attendance and a $2 million decrease in out of park revenues.

Both due to COVID-19 related park closures and operating calendar changes offset in part by proceeds generated from Knott's Berry farm Cedar point.

On the cost side operating costs and expenses in the first quarter of 2021 total $99 million a decrease of $39 million from $138 million in the first quarter last year.

The overall decrease in operating costs and expenses included a 64% or $4 million decrease in cost of goods sold and a 38% or $40 million decrease in operating expenses, both variances reflective of having no parks opened in the period as well as our cost containment efforts.

Partially offsetting the declines in cost of goods sold and operating expenses was a 5 million dollar increase in SG&A expense. This increase was primarily due to higher equity compensation in the quarter as well as an increase in non recurring consulting fees related to our business optimization program.

Looking at the balance sheet for a moment at the end of the first quarter deferred revenues totaled 206 million, representing an increase of $12 million or 6% compared with deferred revenues at the end of 2020 the.

The increase was driven in large part by the ongoing sale of season passes and related all season products during the quarter as well as improving trends in our reservations at our resort properties.

We're pleased to report we now have $1 9 million valid season passes outstanding which should provide solid momentum for our tenants as our parks begin to reopen this month.

Turning to liquidity, we continue to closely manage our cash burn rate, while appropriately maintaining our properties at the end of the quarter. We had total liquidity of $631 million inclusive of $359 million of Undrawn capacity under the company's revolving credit facility.

Cash on hand at the end of the first quarter was $272 million compared with a cash balance of $377 million at the end of 2020, representing a cash burn of approximately $105 million or $35 million per month during the first quarter.

The average cash burn of $35 million per month was better than our prior guidance of $40 million to $50 million per month due in large part to improving season pass sales higher than expected revenues from the Knott's Berry farm Culinary festival, and the Cedar point sports complex and better than projected cost savings during the period.

Based on our level of liquidity at the end of the first quarter, we have sufficient liquidity to satisfy our cash obligations and remain in compliance with debt covenants at least through the second quarter of 2022.

Regarding capital expenditures as we stated on our last call with nearly half our parks unable to fully operating last year, many new rides and attractions plan for the 2020 season have yet to be introduced to our guests.

Using our capital investment needs for new attractions in the current year.

To address other capital needs, we expect to invest approximately $100 million and capital expenditures during 2021.

Approximately one third of these investments will be focused on completion of select unfinished 2020 projects, including the renovation of some of our resort properties Enel.

Another third directed at essential compliance and infrastructure requirements for the current season and the last third earmarked for the start of new attractions for 2022 season work on which will likely begin in the fourth quarter of this year.

Depending on the strength of our results and operating conditions and this year's second half as well as our outlook for the recovery of the business, we may choose to invest in additional capital projects with compelling returns above and beyond those currently planned.

As we've noted in the past over the longer term our strategy is to return to annual capital expenditures expenditures within the core that are in line with historical investment levels of 9% to 10% of revenues.

Regarding cash burn based on our scheduled park openings and current trends, we expect cash burn during the second quarter to be approximately $60 million per month compared to the 35 million per month spent during the first quarter and.

Included in the higher second quarter cash burn estimates.

Our projected higher capital investments and incremental operating costs associated with preparing the parks to open in may as well as interest payments on four of our five outstanding note issuances.

As we've as we mentioned on the last earnings call. Our interest payments on outstanding notes are highest in the second and fourth quarters, excluding interest payments our cash burn in the first quarter was $30 million per month.

Compared to a projected cash burn of approximately $35 million per month in the second quarter.

Before I turn the call back over to Richard I'd like to discuss the projected financial impact of our business optimization efforts.

As Richard mentioned implementation of various initiatives.

Are underway and in most cases will take six to 12 months to complete Meanwhile, fully realizing the anticipated returns could take as long as two to three years in some cases as the business recovers to historical tenants levels and as each initiative matures.

Fully executed we project the optimization efforts will unlock $50 million of incremental annual run rate benefit. Once we are able to operate under normal business conditions and attendance returns to historical levels of the $50 million left roughly a third or approximately $15 million is expected to come from incremental revenue.

<unk> largely dependent on attendance.

While the other two thirds are $35 million is expected to come from cost efficiencies.

Of the cost efficiencies roughly half is projected to be realized through a reduction in fixed costs that are totally independent of attendance and fully within our control.

Of the reduction in fixed costs, we anticipate delivering $5 million to $10 million of improvement in 2021 with the balance anticipated to be realized in 2022 independent of attendance levels.

The other half of cost efficiencies is projected to be realized through lower variable cost.

Altogether approximately $30 million of the total benefit is projected to be realized realized over the next two to three years from variable cost savings and incremental revenue opportunities both largely dependent on attendance trends.

Going forward as our business optimization program takes hold in the business recovers our capital allocation strategy will be focused on paying down debt to return our net leverage ratio to between three to four times adjusted EBITDA at the same time, we will continue to appropriately reinvest behind our strategic plans to grow the core business.

Reinvestment of the district reinstatement of the distribution to unitholders remains a priority however, our ability to get back to a meaningful and sustainable distribution hinges on the pace of the business recovery.

And our disciplined execution of reducing net leverage back to that historical range. The.

The board will continue to regularly reassess the potential re initiation of the quarterly distributions.

And finally, given how dynamic the current operating environment remains we will continue to withhold current year, our long term financial guidance, while we remain very encouraged by the progress improvements. We are seeing our performance in 2021 will be highly dependent on the speed of the recovery and several other factors not directly in our control.

Alluding restrictions around park openings imposed capacity limitations and broad consumer sentiment around the pandemic as we noted on last call. In spite of the improvement we've seen 2021 and will not be a normal operating year and external limitations on park.

Operations May delay achievement of full potential of our parks until later in the year or beyond with that I'll turn the call back over to Richard.

Thanks, Brian.

For our parks and our thousands of associates. It's now go time.

Tremendous excitement is building among our associates guests and communities as our parks prepare for their opening days to put things in perspective for several of our parks, including Great America, Michigan's adventure and Valley Fair opening day will Mark the first time since 2019 that the rides and attractions will be operating.

Both of our California Parks will debut long awaited major attractions, including Knott's Berry tails return to the fair a 40 interactive dark ride and South Bay shores, Waterpark, specifically designed for Great America to be the bay area's coolest place to slide Splash Chill and dine.

These and similar attractions at our other parks such as the 150th anniversary celebration Cedar point and the 100th anniversary celebration at Knott's Berry farm strengthen our legacy of connecting with guests in a meaningful and memorable way.

We kick things off this Saturday with the opening of both Schlitterbahn water parks in Texas and within one month.

All of our U S properties are scheduled to be fully opened.

As of today only the opening of Canada's Wonderland will be delayed as COVID-19 restrictions remain in place that directly affect our Toronto Park until restrictions are lifted we will minimize park operating costs and maintain Canada's Wonderland and a state of readiness.

While we are happy and excited to be reopening the health and safety of our guests and our associates remains our highest priority.

Therefore, our parks will continue to observe state and local guidelines, which pertain primarily to capacity limitations mask wearing and social distancing protocols.

As the season progresses, we will continue we will closely monitor state and local requirements as well as CDC guidance, and we will adjust our parks safety protocols accordingly.

In addition to dealing with the lingering impacts of the pandemic. We are actively addressing the challenges of staffing our parks this season.

As we are seeing across a wide range of industries. The availability of labor is a significant headwind and based on our staffing needs. The regional park industry is right in the middle of it all well.

We've had to deal with tight labor markets in the past. This is by far the most challenging labor environment I've seen in my more than 30 years in this business to address.

These challenges our team is ramping up recruiting efforts and getting very creative we've aggressively but strategically increased hourly wages hourly wages and more challenged markets and around the more difficult to fill positions. We've introduced signing bonuses for certain jobs and we've expanded our use of retention bonuses for.

Our employees that stay on through the length of their contracts.

In addition, we are seeing the benefits from the decision we made several years ago to add to our employee housing facilities at several of the parks within our portfolio.

Having these assets available allows us to market our jobs to individuals' well outside the park's core markets, improving our odds of filling our staffing needs most effectively.

Looking ahead, our goal is to strike the appropriate balance between our operating calendars and the availability of seasonal labor and the anticipated demand from our consumers.

Ensuring we can deliver the kind of experience our guests have come to expect from a Cedar Fair Park is critical to maximizing profit both in the near term and the long term.

With that said, we are very encouraged by the strong industry demand being reported in the early weeks of the season.

Nowhere was that felt more acutely than at Knott's Berry Farm's annual Boysenberry Festival, which last Sunday concluded its six week run with multiple weekend sellouts.

Our robust pent up demand is further supported by our customer surveys, which have indicated a strong desire to visit our parks in 2021.

We also recently experienced a trend of growing in increasing season pass sales.

Which we fully expect this time of year is opening dates draw near anticipated strong demand coupled with an already large and active season pass base means a guest reservations will initially be required at all of our parks, particularly on weekends and our historically busiest days. This will ensure attendance remains within.

Our capacity limitations, which we hope will be relaxed or removed as the environment around COVID-19 improves it.

It will also ensure our guests enjoy our best day experience from check in to departure most.

Most importantly, we can get back to the business of making people happy I can assure you that our park teams are focused on that goal by delivering an entertainment experience that makes our guests want to come back again and again.

Laura at this point could you. Please open up the call for questions.

Absolutely fair. Thank you at this time I would like to remind everyone in our day to ask a question. Please press Star then the number one on your telephone keypad.

Then the number one on your telephone keypad, if you would like to withdraw your question.

The parking.

Your first question will come from the line of Brad Armstrong from Keybanc. Your line is now line go ahead. Please.

Hey, good morning, guys.

So I may be confusing myself here, but I just wanted to make sure I understand some of the language in the business Optum.

Optimization plan this quarter compared to last quarter. So last quarter. There was 200 to 300 basis points of margin.

Seem predicated on a return to 2019 attendance today, it's $50 million over the next two to three years. So you gave us some of the moving parts in the prepared remarks, but like if we get back to 2019 attendance over the next 12 to 18 months does that two to 300 basis points still hold.

Hey, Brett good morning, it's Brian So I think stepping back just for a second as we said on the last call.

We were earlier in the process as it related to.

And the development of that of the program the business optimization program. We still do believe the 200 to 300 basis point margin expansion that we talked about previously is very executable the timeline as we've gotten deeper into this certainly some aspects of the program on the cost side may take.

A little longer to develop and as I noted in my prepared remarks, there are some big components in here that are highly dependent on that attend that returned to historical attendance level. So it does depend on your view of the recovery too.

Back up to that $28 million or more in attendance as you know thats the big driver behind <unk>.

Margin, but as we've gotten deeper into our <unk>.

Into the process and building out the program, we've identified more cost and the potential longer term for that margin expansion to maybe be even be up above and beyond that earlier range. We've provided may exist as well.

Got it okay.

And then you are removing the outdoor masked mandate at a few of your parts, which I think puts you at the non leading edge compared to your peers.

I guess, maybe what what drove that decision and those parks. What's the initial initial customer feedback or response been to that.

Are you looking to do that at other parks this season.

Yes, Brett good morning from on first of all as we always say and as everybody on this call knows the health and safety of our guests associates top priority as we as we looked at it last year going into the pandemic. We thought it was an appropriate step to both insist on appropriate safety social distancing protocols mask wearing.

Things that would ensure in the environment, we had last year, what would keep everybody safe I'll go back to what we said on the last earnings call I would reiterate today all of the protocols that we put in place.

There wasn't a single case contact trace back to us and then the <unk>.

Most 3 million visitors, we had to all of our parks last year.

We felt really good about debt as we now see the the landscape change this year conditions on the ground are very different region to region state to state we've always.

Tried to rely on the most recent regional information and work with both our infectious disease team that we can sell it with outside doctors, but also very closely with state and local regulators who have their fingers on the pulse of what's happening throughout the region. So we're encouraged by the improving trends and I think that the.

Protocols, we've come out with will react to what we're seeing on the ground and what we think.

Is appropriate given all those conversations both with outside medical experts, but also our state and local partners. So we're monitoring everything as we go forward, but as things improve I think we're encouraged that we're seeing relaxation in the restrictions throughout throughout certainly the U S. We're watching Canada closely as I said in my remarks.

The initial reaction has been positive I think there is going to be pent up demand and I think there is a desire to get back to not just normal but get out and really enjoy this summer.

When you look back at last summer everybody was impacted and didn't have quite the experience they wanted to but closer to home outdoor entertainment. The regional the key tenant of the regional theme Park business I think rings really true right now.

Alright, thank you.

Thank you Sir your next question will come from the line of Steve Scala from Stifel. Your line is now line go ahead. Please.

Hey, guys good morning.

So I want to start on the labor side of things you mentioned now availability and the cost of Labor has moved against you guys and I'm wondering.

From here, how do you balance the labor side of things from an availability perspective relative to the guest experience meeting.

How do you balance trying to lower the amount of labor in your parks versus not impacting the eventual customer experience.

Yeah, Steve Good morning, It's Richard I'll start and then Brian can weigh in when we go back to what we've seen in terms of cost pressures in the past several years go back to 16 and 17.

We were seeing high high single digit kind of pressure on the wage rate and true.

Efficiencies and the focus of the park teams were able to bring that down to mid single digits. So within our business model. We've always had the ability to find a way to both maintain the quality of the guest experience when I go back to those years, we saw improving guest satisfaction scores. So I think that's part of having one of the most.

<unk> teams in the business, that's part of what I certainly work with the teams in the field to make sure that we are accomplishing that high quality guest experience everybody has come to come to see.

And come to expect but in terms of the actual numbers and the pressure Brian anything you want to add.

Yeah, Steve I would just say similar to what we are.

We approached us any given year, while as Richard noted in his prepared remarks. This this environment labor environment, maybe unlike any we've ever seen in terms of the scale or magnitude. There are still some similarity Australia. It's always said low more challenging to find labor in the shoulder seasons spring before schools are out of session fall schools are going.

Back in session.

What we've done in the past is manage our operating calendars are hours with that in mind because as you noted we always want to provide the best guest experience and so we've made those those are the kinds of adjustments that you have to make in the near term longer term as we noted in the call.

And in previous calls and puts more and more pressure on.

Automation within the system using more advanced technology like our new.

Workforce management system to more actively and dynamically manage our staffing.

Share in staffing around jobs in the park adjusting staffing levels based on attendance levels et cetera. So there's things that we need to do and are working on in the near term, but there are also things that we need to be focused on and are focused on more longer term because we don't see this as just a 2021 issue. We think that this is a longer.

Term issue that needs to be addressed.

Okay got you and then second question would be around the Capex side of things you talked about how.

If conditions permit you guys might.

Just an additional capital projects with with compelling returns. So I'm wondering if you could help me think about that a little bit more in terms of what those conditions.

What conditions you are looking for and then what kind of return profile you guys are targeting at this point.

Yes, I'd say in terms of the broad conditions.

At a high level right now what we're focused on is the projects within that 100 million that we that we spoke about in our prepared remarks to the extent debt as we as we start getting towards the second half of this season and demand is.

Strong and we're seeing better pacing in our fall sales around 22 passes are solid and we feel better and better about liquidity there may be an opportunity to start leaning into projects.

That have compelling returns as we've always done in the past right, we've never been shy to spend money on projects that.

Have compelling long term returns for us that's usually projects.

We are approaching that 10 plus percent ROI mid teens, maybe on the bigger more marketable rides and attractions something on a lower double digits.

If it's a ancillary revenue and EBITDA stream like the hotels and the incremental revenues adjacent development type projects, we've added in the past but.

We're probably a little bit away from that at this point Steve.

I think it really there's a lot to still be seen on how the 'twenty one season develops but we feel very confident and comfortable with the level of spend that we do have plan for calendar year 2021 at this point.

Okay, great. Thanks, guys appreciate it.

Thank you Sir your next question will be coming from the line of Tycho.

Your line is now line sort of helpful.

Hey, How's it going.

I mentioned pent up demand a few times in the release just any color you can provide on spring pass sales trends in April or may that may not be reflected in that.

One 8 million number and then kind of how are you handling spring pass sales selling period.

With those parks closed and then I have another 10 day.

Ben Good morning, it's Richard as we look at season pass sales I'll start first with the one point almost one nine we've got.

With us and I'll go back to what we said last time on our earnings call and I would reiterate again today, we've seen less than one half of 1% request for refunds. So we've got we've engaged with our customers I think our marketing teams have done an excellent job staying engaged with our customers and we've kept that loyalty fab.

Actor going into this season. So you start with that foundation as I said in our prepared remarks, we have seen increasing sales week over week.

Our customer surveys point towards the high intent to visit but also I'll go back to you know early last week, we opened up both ticket sales and reservations and at one point on the first day, we opened all of that up there was over an hour wait to either purchase a ticket or get a reservation. So we had a virtual queue on our E. Commerce site. So tremendous response from and I think.

It just goes back to that debt really deep customer loyalty, we've seen throughout all of our parks and our regions.

Got you. Okay. That's helpful. And then one more on the path and I think that you had articulated before that 75% to 80% of pass revenue ballpark was going to be allocated to 2021.

From patents that you sold the previous year now that we didn't have a <unk> because of COVID-19 essentially is at pretty close to apples to apples at this point because normally you would you would have released them pass revenue into <unk> I guess, what im getting at is.

Is there a drag from the for the remainder of the season.

Allocate past Rev per visitation or does that normalize because of the lack of <unk> essentially debt didn't makes sense I can try to get differently.

Yes.

Yes, but let me, let me try and answer it this way from what we had commented on previously we had coming into Q1 non anticipated releasing any meaningful deferred revenue based on our outlook for the operating calendar. So the situation is still applies it is still pretty dynamic.

Right something like Canada's Wonderland as Richard noted on the call. We're still in a state of flux. There in terms of getting reopened in and that's a bigger season pass base part for us. So we're that sorts out could ultimately impact and potentially create a little bit of a drag.

But we don't know what we don't know at this point in time I'm not sure if that answers what you were looking for but.

Hopefully it does.

Okay cool. Thank you that's helpful.

Thank you Sir.

Next question will come from the line of Mike Swartz from tourists. Your line is now line go ahead. Please.

Hey, good morning, guys.

Just wondering wanted to follow up on the earlier question on Labor inflation I think you said back in the.

The 16, 17 timeframe that kind of the gross rate of inflation with something in the high single digit range, maybe give us a sense of a little bit of context, what maybe youre seeing right now or how are you thinking about labor inflation going forward.

Yes, sure Mike It's Brian So as Richard noted.

And in answer to the previous question.

We had gotten aggressive.

And taking market adjustments and we had some statutory requirements in some markets, but in that sort of that 16 17 timeframe we were seeing.

Rates in.

In the high single digit in terms of that pressure eight nine even maybe even 10% and certainly some some markets.

That began to subside a little bit because of the more aggressive.

Increases that we took in that timeframe back into the mid single digits. The last couple of years and that sort of 5% to 6% that was where our seasonal labor rates were in 2020 over 19, we came into 'twenty one.

Expecting and planning for something in that same range that 5% to 6% range in terms of wage rate inflation I will tell you based on some of the adjustments that Richard noted.

The strategic increases in hourly rates in certain markets and uncertain more difficult to fill jobs the retention bonuses and the sign on bonuses. When you factor all of those pieces in that rate pressure inflation is now approaching something closer to 10%.

And so our focus is on on managing hours again aggressively trying to find those efficiencies on the OE side of the equation to help some take some of that pressure off the overall cost.

Increase we might be facing based on the on the higher inflation than originally planned.

Yes, so Mike I'd also add one of the benefits we saw a increase in our wage rates back in <unk>.

Last few years is of higher quality.

Applicant in a higher quality employee associates, so as we as I sort through that that's allowed us to be far more productive as Brian said, we've got we've always seen whenever theres more money in the pockets of our core customers. So as wage rates go up on our key demographic.

That team young adult.

We've been able to pass along price increases and that's been one of the unique things about our.

About our business model not just the customer loyalty, but the high guest satisfaction, you'll hear me talk all the time about price value, let's focus on the value. So we continue to take price all of those factors over time I think we know the levers to play and we know how we can use those.

To both mitigate but leverage.

This issue around wages.

Okay, great. Thanks for all the color and then just a second question, maybe a little different when the optimization plan I'm just wondering from an organizational buy in standpoint.

I guess, how does the compensation structure for park managers and corporate employees change at all.

Based on some of the targets that you've now outlined.

With cost savings and some of the revenue pick up opportunities.

Really good question, Mike Let me just tell you that it's our firm belief and I know, it's our board's belief that.

Compensation structure and incentives need to follow strategy. So as we think about the strategy going forward right now everything that we've got in place really focuses on the recovery, but longer term as we as we think about what incentive is appropriate we're going to make sure that it lines up behind the strategies, we've laid forward at all levels.

Okay, great. Thank you.

Thank you Sir your next question will come from the line of James Hardiman from Wedbush Securities. Your line is now likely go ahead. Please.

Hey, good morning.

I apologize if you've already clarified this but but the $50 million.

I just want to understand if that is a gross or a net benefit I guess, particularly given the labor headwinds that we keep talking about here.

Net of the labor should we still expect an EBITDA number that $50 million better once were through all of these initiatives.

Yeah, James it's Brian Good morning.

Based on what we know right now, yes, the target that we're aiming at that $50 million.

Is reflective of headwinds within within the labor category.

Okay.

It should be obviously remember that he was going to be perfect, but if I just look at 2019 revenues.

And adjusted EBITDA.

Once we get back to those levels of attendance, we should be thinking about revenues that are $15 million higher and EBITDA that $50 million higher correct.

Based on the way you just summarize that the I would say that's a fair a fair way to look at it.

Yes, I would say that you know.

As we continue to see the this labor market in the labor environment globally evolve our views around labor may change.

But as of right now.

That's where we stand.

Got it Okay, and then lastly.

Maybe there is no answer here.

But.

Obviously, you didn't have any traditional park operations in the fourth quarter and.

For the most part in April.

You are starting to open up.

Last weekend or two.

Thank you.

Last we spoke we were talking about attendance that was maybe 40%.

The prior year.

I'm sure you know six flags reported last week and they saw a pretty significant ramp over the past few months.

Is there any reason to think that once your parks open back up again, but you will also benefit from a from a really significant up tick in.

Attendance versus 2019.

And if not what else do you look at I guess given that given that we don't have actual park operations as a barometer how should we think about sort of where this is headed.

Yeah, James Good question and part of the challenge of <unk>.

This particular point in time is we haven't had significant operations I need to go back and lean back into all of the leading indicators. We typically would follow so I look at the season pass channel seen increasing sales there across all the all the parks.

For the most part I look at our reservations on the resort side, particularly.

They're in Ohio, and elsewhere, and we're seeing those start to pick up nicely. So we're seeing what we would expect to see and then lastly, I think keeping to your point I think everybody where the restrictions have been starting to be.

Be relaxed there has been great demand. So I think part of the challenge in our portfolio in answering your question is yes.

Where is each park, whereas that region in terms of relaxing the restrictions we've said from the beginning what will impact us. The most is how quickly restrictions lapse. How quickly you get youre able to get back to what would be a fully operating model 100% of capacity, we're not there in a lot of places.

So I think the answer to your question lies how quickly do things improve I don't have a FERC crystal ball on that but I will say, what we see from from our side. The things we can watch on the things we can't control are very encouraging.

Got it that's helpful.

And.

Good luck next critical month or so thanks James.

Thank you Sir.

And at this time just to remind everyone in our day to ask a question. Please press Star then the number one or no telephone line of coupon.

Our next question will come from the line of Paul Golding from Macquarie Capital. Your line is now line Super helpful.

Great. Thanks, so much for taking my question I just wanted to clarify on the labor.

Supply.

Commentary.

You have labor in place to meet anticipated demand for the U S re openings over the next month is that correct.

Yeah, when I look at where we are.

For the calendar, we've put out there we've got sufficient labor to meet that demand, but typically as we've seen in the past our early season needs and I put particularly the month of May early June and with the early season.

Different than prime season, but what we've also seen which we've seen in past years as you get closer to opening and the noise around the park being open.

It tends to help applicant flow as we get into it again. This is a really unique time because of the pandemic and its impact.

And all the programs around.

Labor and supporting those on unemployment.

It's a unique time, where theres a lot of cross currents in the labor market particular in the leisure and hospitality space, but right now.

I look at what we're doing I think we have what we need to provide the high quality guest experience our guests have come to expect and as we build out and we see the improvement in our labor availability to US then we'll react accordingly on the operating calendar operating hours.

Great and then.

My follow up is around the <unk>.

Chris commentary, you mentioned the $25 million per per month.

And cash interest expense.

Good for <unk>.

Second quarter Howard.

Thinking about pay down versus refinancing opportunities any commentary around timeline and access there and how you're weighing those options given the given the substantial.

Interest cash outflow of component that you're flagging for for <unk> in future periods.

Yes, Paul it's Brian what I would say.

First.

Is that and we're very comfortable with where we're at from a liquidity perspective as noted that said, we as Richard said on the call paying down debt deleveraging remains our top priority at this point in time, we have a lot of flexibility in the cap.

<unk> structure right now there aren't any near term maturities.

And so as we see how 'twenty one develops the second half of the year, we'd like to see a little bit of a more return to normal where some of the restrictions in the macro.

Factors.

Capacity limitations as an example of things that are outside of our control as those start to be relaxed in fall off when we can feel a lot more comfortable about going into the 'twenty two season, and getting back to what I would characterize as normal cash flow generation for Cedar fair.

<unk> second third fourth quarter.

We will be in a better position I think as we get into 'twenty two to start thinking about actually paying down debt right now I think maintaining that liquidity and having that flexibility is probably more important than paying down debt at least.

Over the balance of this year.

Thanks for that.

Thank you Sir.

Our next question will come from the line of Eric Wold from B Riley Securities. Your line is now line per head.

Thank you good morning zone.

Couple of questions I guess one.

Is it fair.

So as you reopen.

Obviously, the reservation system in place can you talk about the initial mix that you're seeing almost reservations between.

Single day tickets and season pass holders and.

How does that compare maybe to 19 and kind of what is your goal for.

That mix evolving as this kind of business optimization kicks in.

Eric Good morning, It's Richard we're seeing the same thing that we saw last year and our approach is similar to last year. So if you go back to.

What we how we started the reopening is last year, we reserve some days and some time slots for season pass holders. We're doing that again. This year, we sold as we said we've got almost $1 9 million.

Season passes hold out there who have stayed with us. So for instance, starting this weekend season pass holders will get into Knott's Berry farm.

And there's been strong response to that and then we'll open up to the public a couple of weeks from now you'll see early days reserved for season pass holders. So if you go back to 2019, we were at 53% of our tenants with season pass holders last year, we settled out around 62, 62% or so for all of 2020. So when you look.

Look at those types of numbers I think youll see similar impact this year with a heavier weighting early and then the longer we're open and fully the more we can get fully open I think youll start to settle into whatever the the normal trend will be but it will look closer to what we've seen in the past.

Got it and then final question.

You think that's an important kind of reopening and moving into the stronger back half of the year.

See pent up demand as you go with your question or comment around with six flags reported.

What do you anticipate the.

The actual headwinds from any kind of quote unquote official.

Capacity limits actually being in the back half of the year vs.

Kind of your your realistic ability to get people into a park.

I'll, let Brian weigh in here in a second but you go back to how we've talked about it in the past we've always had 20 or 25 per cent of the days that we call peak attendance broadly throughout the system. Many of those happen in the back half of the year. So.

I think the difficult part about answering your question. So we just don't know how they how the restrictions will lapse and in all of our markets and again, we've got we're monitoring closely Canada.

And seeing how those restrictions lapse, so as I think about where the impact of any capacity restrictions really reside it's in those peak day. So to the extent that the peak days have no restrictions then we'll be able to realize more of that did that historical attendance on those days.

And certainly those days have a meaningful impact.

On our both profitability and our ability to drive revenues Brian.

Yes, I think.

Eric that's that's the key point.

Richard just made is that the.

We look at our normal operating season, and if we narrow it down in the second half of the year, while there may be more of those those peak days in the second half thing Saturdays in July and August.

The fall season, they ever popular Halloween events, there are still.

More days, where we set below that 50.

Percentile of their theoretical capacity, so theres more upside.

But those key days are critical so certainly at some of our parks. Those are some of the biggest margin our highest margin biggest revenue biggest EBITDA days and so seeing a relaxation of the restrictions the capacity limitations et cetera.

As our ultimate end game.

But we're just going to have to wait and see how that develops in 2021.

Got it thank you.

Thank you Sir your next question will come from the line of Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live go ahead. Please.

Hi, Thanks.

The opening remarks, you mentioned more efficient.

And flexible advertising programs can you just go into a little bit more detail on how the programs have changed and then potentially related question on the per cap side. How are you thinking about potential flow through if per caps actually hold improvements versus 2019 levels as we've heard from some of your peers. In other words are your optimization strategy is going to impact flow through.

On per caps versus history.

Steven It's Richard I'll take the first one I'll, let Brian answer the second.

As we look back on 2021 of the learnings we had was that we could dive into digital on the advertising front really more effectively use digital and social media.

Which is far more cost effective and far more targeted so as.

As we built the plan this year, we leaned a lot heavier into that that was really we said this so many times about the pandemic accelerates the underlying trends that were already there we are.

We've seen an increase in terms of our percentage of advertising dedicated to digital and social over the last several years, but it really accelerated the trend and it's building out that flexibility.

Building out that flexibility and be able to target.

Different consumers different groups, but also go in and out of the market and pulse through we were really pleased with what we saw in 2020 and that's why we built a plan that is much heavier digital and social going into 2021, and obviously, we will monitor that and make sure that it's as effective as we want it to be but.

When I look at the engagement of our customer tells me our both our CRM platform, but also our our media message is resonating so Brian on the second part.

Yes, Stephen in terms of per caps, a couple layers I guess for that question.

Just stepping back and looking at last year.

And albeit a challenging year in an abbreviated season, we as we said on our year end earnings call very pleased with what we saw out of this the guest spending trends within the park guest spending on food and beverage Merchandizing games.

Trending up in the in the low to mid teens now if I step back and try and put that in the context of 19.

Probably.

The attendance number moves higher it's likely that that normalizes, a little bit, but it's still reflective of I think what others. As you noted are seeing and what we have been seeing for several years.

Just.

As a reminder.

An area like food and beverage, where we spent a lot of time on.

Upgrading or adding new facilities at our parks, adding new technologies better programs better quality product with executive chefs or food and beverage revenues.

2012 to 19 were up more than $125 million, which was a 5% CAGR over that period of time and it's been better in the in the later years as those as those programs and those facilities have continued to to drive strong results. We continue to believe there's more opportunity and we'll continue to lean.

And of that and the business optimization fronts I think represents a more tailwind is around the in park spend one of the key focuses for us as transaction counts.

We're looking at optimizing the in park guest experience to speed up transactions to provide more convenience is so that we can give our guests more opportunities to spend.

And in spend in a way that they want to spend now there are problems and that then will definitely help flow through.

To your question I think there are potential headwinds.

That we have to acknowledge though that could could hurt flow through a little bit and that is on the labor side right as we're having to pay more for our labor that is a potential headwind now we're not going to just take that without trying to offset it with as I said before efficiencies in an hour's efficiencies and in technology.

It allowed us to automate mobile ordering is a big area you've heard us talk about in the past. So there are things that work both ways on that but we're very encouraged by where we've been on per cap spending in the park and think theres more opportunity in front of us.

Awesome. Thanks, so much.

Thanks, David Thanks. Thank.

Thank you, Sir and that will be our last question I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Richard Zimmerman for any closing remarks.

Thanks, Laura and thanks to everybody for joining us on today's call and for your ongoing support of our company hopefully you'll have a chance to visit one of our parks very soon with friends and families for a whole lot of fun.

We will keep you updated on our progress and perhaps see you either virtually or in person at an upcoming investor conference or non deal Roadshow in the meantime, please take care and everybody stay safe and healthy. Thank you again Michael.

Thanks, Richard and thanks to everyone. Please feel free to contact our Investor Relations Department with any further questions at 4196 to 72233, and we look forward to speaking with you again in <unk>.

<unk>.

Releasing our 2021 second quarter report Clara that ends our call today. Thanks, everyone.

Thank you Sir thank you so much Brian and again. Thank you everyone for participating. This concludes today's conference you may now disconnect.

And have a lovely day.

Okay.

[music].

Sure.

[music].

Yes.

Sure.

[music].

Sure.

[music].

Okay.

[music].

Yes.

Sure.

Yes.

[music].