Q1 2021 Exterran Corp Earnings Call
One of my presentation, if anyone should require operator assistance during the conference. Please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded I would now like to turn this conference over to your host Mr. Blake Hancock, Vice President Investor Relations. Thank you. Sir you may begin good morning, and welcome to Exterran Corporation.
First quarter of 2021 conference call.
With me today are experienced president and Chief Executive Officer, Andrew way, and David BARDA, Exterran Chief Financial Officer.
During this conference call, we may make statements regarding future expectations about the company's business.
And its plans for future operations.
Similar matters. These statements are considered forward looking statements within the meaning of the U S Securities law and speak only as of the date of this call.
The company's actual results could differ materially due to several important factors, including the risk factors and other trends and uncertainties described and the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Management may refer to non-GAAP financial measures during this call and.
In accordance with regulation G. The company provides a reconciliation of these measures and its earnings press release issued earlier today and our presentation located on the Investor Relations portion of the Companys website with that I will now turn the call over to Andrew.
Thanks, Blake and good morning, everyone Exterran performed well and the first quarter as we remained focused on employee safety and operational efficiency and strong execution of our global backlog and positioning the company to capitalize on a robust bid activity pipeline.
The first quarter with a strong commercial start to the company and 2021 as we won and have begun execution of our first multiyear contract operations award for Exterran and water solutions with approximately $200 million.
While the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit soft globally. The rollout of the vaccination is starting to have positive ramifications that said part of the eastern Hemisphere I'll still have an outbreak for the virus that could create additional timing challenges as we work with our vendors and suppliers to advance the project.
Yes.
Looking at our growing pipeline of opportunities we remain bullish on the commercial outlook for international markets. The.
The recovery and oil prices on our customer needs and continue to improve the natural gas production, which is paid and the way from strong local demand for our traditional products and services.
And as I look at the addressable market opportunity over the next several years, we see over $2 billion for gas project on over $1 5 billion of project award opportunities for water.
As we've said before we believe that natural gas demand will continue to growth and being an integral part of the energy ecosystem and the years to come and clearly the pipeline of opportunities. We see demonstrates this thesis.
We're excited to help advance the ongoing ongoing global energy transition.
Even more important to our own transition is our exterran water solutions business.
So when we had and the first quarter really underpins the confidence we have and this product line and its bright prospects for continued growth and value creation on <unk>.
Wanted to spend a little more time today on our water business covering what we do and outline and our total addressable market across multiple industries and I also wanted to provide and update on how we see the business progressing.
Our technology was initially developed and the municipal water segment for removal of iron and bacterial growth through mass transfer and using a microbubble reactor and the.
And the concept was then translated for environmental applications for aviation and Pond management.
The technology was further refined to address the half water conditions and the oil sands, where extensive water treatment of large volumes of water was required.
The growth of the oil and gas industry and the inherently high volumes of produced water for example, a large market opportunity innovating.
Innovating with and application focus we have now build a family of product lines that provide our customers a complete solution covering primary and secondary and tertiary treatment, which is scalable across different ranges of volume we.
We're proud to now be a leader in this space with a commercially proven and fully integrated solution.
With over 70 patents are core technology translate well into high flow and challenging fluids, and we are developing applications that extend into mining utility wastewater treatment and produced water desalination.
For the oil and gas industry, although all production has been forecasted to be flat until 2030 natural gas production is still expected to growth country to the flat production of oil produced water volumes are rapidly, increasing which is attributable to the increase and the water to oil ratio as well as mature.
And certain parts of the world, where we operate water cuts larger than 90% on now the norm.
Industry saw this expect to see 30% growth and produced water by 2025, and then potentially another 20% growth by 2030.
It is a significant and meaningful opportunities for our company.
Translated all of this to the addressable markets. We serve we see the produced water oil and gas industry is presented and the $30 billion opportunity with our Microbubble flotation technology being applicable to roughly $5 billion of this total market but.
And as I stated earlier, we see our technology has had and applications across many industries, including petroleum and mining where this technology originated and municipal water way to name. A few we are confident that our water business is poised for rapid growth that will drive enhanced financial performance on a compare.
And value creation.
To wrap up this discussion on water I want to provide some insight to how we see the business developing and growing over the next several years.
Clearly coming into 2020, AWS was a small part of our revenue and margin, but as we look out over the next several years and assess the pipeline of opportunities. We are confident that our annual and revenue contribution from water could exceed 150 million on.
Similarly, given the tremendous market opportunity and we're targeting water could drive more than 30% of the company's total adjusted EBITDA by 2023 and with that I'll now turn it over to Dave. Thanks, Andrew We have issued a press release, the investor deck and later today, we will file the 10-Q, so I'm not going to go through the <unk>.
Fuel recap of the financials, rather and I'll talk about our outlook for 2021 and the next couple of years, while there is still uncertainties around global and industry business activities, our backlog the relative stability of the eco business and a strong commercial pipeline gives us confidence and providing the outlook from the next several years as we see.
And on the earnings press release, we see at least 15% compounded growth rate for EBITDA as adjusted over the next two years with our updated guidance for this year of $150 million to $160 million.
And this view incorporates the water business outlook and Andrew provided along with US. We also expect cash product bookings to begin to improve later this year and into 2022 with revenue recognition beginning in 2022 and 2023 to help drive increased EBITDA as adjusted and cash flow with outlook also incorporates the impact of the productivity improvements.
And cost savings, we have realized over the past several years, we will have meaningful operating leverage as we can handle increasing volume with only small changes for the cost structure.
With regard to our cash flow outlook, our guidance for 2021 free cash flow is negative $60 million to $70 million and as a reminder, this was driven by the working capital uses deferred revenue and Capex.
Turning to 2022, we expect deferred revenue to be similar to 2021 with higher Capex given the current backlog and an expectation for at least one more sizeable FICO win.
Working capital usage for the Middle East project will be meaningful higher next year as we get further into the construction phase of this project.
We have chosen to invest and these high return and high margin projects with further transition for more sustainable energy focused company and I'll.
So it requires capital over the next several years will generate significant cash flow and 2023 and beyond as.
As we move to 2023, we expect strong positive free cash flow as deferred revenue is expected to decline to a more normalized level EBITDA as adjusted is expected to be above $200 million and working capital will start to contribute with the conclusion of the middle East project. However, the full offset to the working capital build will be realized over several years.
Yes.
We will also not assumed any company funded additional growth capex.
All could result in free cash flow and 2023 of over $100 million.
Thinking about this forecast in terms of leverage for 2022, we expect to maintain a similar leverage ratio level to 2021 with leveraged significantly decreasing and 2023.
Even with us and improving outlook, we've commenced a review of our capital structure strategy to ensure both near term and long term success as we've talked about.
Before our longer term strategy included and this process and external project financing.
We have developed a structure that we believe works for the relative stakeholders and are discussing this with several potential capital providers.
All options are on the table consistent with our commitment to driving improved financial performance and shareholder value creation and with that I'll turn the call back to Andrew for his closing remarks.
Thanks, Dave So as we progress and our transformation and and important for us to make sure. Our leadership is aligned with many of the important metrics that we believe will create long term value included managing our balance sheet and cash flow by improving EBITDA improve and the margins and our backlog, which should result and improve improve longer term.
And also tie and part of our total compensation to total shareholder return, which is a direct alignment with our shareholders.
We've also added ESG into our leadership goals and objective again tied to compensation to further our strategy and a sustainable energy world, where incentivize and our teams to make the right choices for all stakeholders.
And helped drive both near term and long term value.
As you hear today, we're accelerating our company's transformation underpinned by our growing commercial pipeline.
Really excited about the potential opportunities, we see and our water business.
And believe that upon conclusion of the strategic review of our capital structure, we can come away with a solution all solutions to support growth, both near term and longer term needs.
And I want to take a moment to thank our employees, our customers and vendors for their commitment to exterran over this time and to all our stakeholders, we are committed to driving longest and value and with that I'll now turn the call back to the operator.
At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session.
And I would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone keypad and confirmation tone will indicate your line is and the question queue. You May press star two share and move your question from Mchugh from participants using speaker equipment and may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key one moment, while we poll for questions.
Our first question comes from the line of Kyle May with capital One Securities. You May proceed with your question.
Hi, good morning, everyone.
Pretty impressive to see.
Pretty impressive to see the 2023, EBITDA number and the outlook.
Just wondering if you can provide any additional color around the business and its segments to help us frame up how you see things improving and changing over the next couple of years.
Yes, I think.
And again those outlooks were really based on as we said.
The water project, we won another assumption for another significant eco project and them.
Gradually improving product sales.
Environment.
So again.
Go through all the details today by segment, but that one eco project will contribute obviously the water deal, we signed and the first quarter and we began executing will start contributing.
And the 2023, probably the back half of 2023, so the product sale and then the outlook Andrew provided for water will certainly be a big contributor in terms of product sales. In addition to the CECO project.
Got it okay.
Was also wondering if you could talk more about the capital structure strategy review.
Maybe what options are on the table and what timeframe you have in mind.
Yes, I think Andrew obviously, you talked about a pretty significant pipeline of opportunities and I think on the gas product side very consistent we've continued to see a multibillion dollar pipeline and those are projects that we have.
Customers the project.
All of that lined out these arent speculative type things.
And these are real things that our teams are engaged with customers on and then for the first time provided a water pipeline.
And total and same story, we've got those wind out by project by customer and those are things that our guys are engaged and some capacity. So we have a significant pipeline in front of us that we're currently working on and I think shorter term want to make sure. We're doing the right things in terms of leverage.
As we kind of grow into the <unk>.
Leverage better leverage position.
And then certainly from a long term and to make sure that we're balancing and both at short term opportunity to engage on these products and a longer term view of maintaining that type of success going forward in terms of options and im not going to go into lots of detail, but I would say.
And we don't have biases, nor does our board, we're going to consider any option that makes sense.
To create value and to serve all of our stakeholders. So.
And I would just say, we're looking at a range of opportunities and at this point and not going to probably predictor timeline other than to say this is a priority for our company and our board is too.
Resolve.
How we get to this pipeline and engage with our customers actively.
Got it understood. Thanks for taking the questions. This morning.
Income.
Our next question comes from the line of Doug Becker with Northland Capital markets. You May proceed with your question.
Thanks.
Was wondering if you could give a little more context around the timeframe and win percentage you expect out of that pipeline to $2 billion of gas, one and $5 billion of water projects just over the longer term.
Yes, so I think the guidance that we gave today.
Handicapped Sydney over the next couple of years, the timing of the projects.
Very and projects in different countries and different locations at different stages. So some early feed and we.
Our design and equipment and the specifications on the actual application. Some of these projects would be a second train where we already have the first train some of these projects replication.
Replication of what we've already designed.
Build and we currently operate and we currently own and so its a question of local timing and others perspective.
And as much we.
<unk> into our plan the designs that we are currently working through with our customers and the various applications, but it still has to pass sit and local test. So it's a real difficult task as I've said every quarter really trying to predict the absolute order bookings and certain countries and city locations has been tough, but we're very confident with this.
Size of the pipeline that we have and our win rate within the applications and the product lines and we're confident with the guidance that we've provided so our teams globally have.
Been working hard over the past six to nine months.
Interacting with a lot of customers and a lot of and a lot of places and as we look at the pipeline we tend to build that into our overall resource allocation from starting off with application all the way through to engineering and then ultimately how we're going to manufacture the product or how we're going to indirect from an overall global.
Hi chain. So we constantly run what we call our <unk> plant and process that takes into consideration near and medium and longer term planning and we will build and the applications into that into that pipeline. So.
But over the course of the next couple of months, we'll continue to keep you posted on both the size and scope of the pipeline and on hopefully here in the next few months some of the wins that come through that allows us to start putting that into backlog to realize the.
And the forecast that we just provided.
And then maybe I would add that that pipeline includes both eco type opportunities and product sales type opportunities and so Andrew provided some view on the water business and then the debt.
Horizon, It would be like a <unk> 10, and 15% type win rate, but again theres projects and there could be 10 year eco there's some projects that could be 20 year.
And then probably 20% to 30% kind of win rate on the rest of it with the horizon. We provided against some of these projects go out for quite a number of years.
That makes sense.
It seems like the U S infrastructure Bill might include a sizable portion for upgrading aging water infrastructure and the U S.
Is this something that X turns going to be targeting.
And we thought and we started.
Actually pre buy and I would say started working with state level and certain customers on various regulations and potential implications of what the technology that we have can provide in terms of some solutions and so I'd say those discussions are progressing and I wouldn't say they have accelerated they certainly progressing.
We feel.
Pretty good at the pace and the level of intensity that we're seeing here in North America clearly the larger projects, we see for our water business is overseas and so we're certainly seeing a.
A correlation here with new find new production additional gas output equal some of the water cuts that we talked about and my prepared remarks, which drives a real need for additional volume and quantity of water. We use that we see and in parts of the middle East, but in North America.
We're certainly seeing early signs of various legislations not just on the water side, but I would say also on the gas side and I think that can only help and play into the strength of what exterran dose.
We're very comfortably working in that environment and uncertainty the technologies and solutions, we have both on the gas side and on the water side plays into the overall narrative that we're seeing.
Come forward.
Got it and.
There was a press release that the crew more force mature had been lifted and.
And Iraq.
Any context about the implication.
For for Exterran.
So important project one that we've been working for some time I'd say internally, we've made incredible progress on.
And that we can control with regards to all of the design and the engineered reviews, the supply chain and logistics aspect of planning and this is a project that will be managed and is being managed out of our middle East team.
And with support from headquarters.
Headquarters team here in Houston.
The force Majeure that we also have we also read with in relation to our customer with the and use it and we've been working hand in hand with with the three parties over the last couple of months and really we've built that into our guidance today and I and build that into the overall outlook that we see.
It's an important project I will say cautiously as I made a remark in my opening comments that.
We're still not seeing a perfect world as it relates to COVID-19 and the global company with a global need for for both people parts logistics supply chain that comes from various parts of the world.
We're continuing to monitor the challenges that we see in countries and.
COVID-19 implications of what could happen in various parts and will lead and them and we're reading about that and the C&I on the news daily So.
And whilst the force majeure is being lifted we feel confident that the project and.
And a good place and we've made a ton of progress really in line with what we anticipated at this stage with everything that we can control internally and and I think it comes back to some of the things I talked about in previous calls, where we've invested technology and infrastructure and allow us to have seamless engineering and.
And on our visibility on the projects globally. So really our engineering teams have been able to remotely manage this project and an incredible way. So we're excited about the project and.
And we hope.
But there are many more to come.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Ken Monticello with ABTS and May proceed with your question.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question here.
And just to do with the outlook for 15% EBIT growth over the next couple of years, you get to over $200 million by 2023, which is definitely encouraging and thanks for providing that.
Curious within that outlook, how much growth capital, which you need to allocate and 2022 to get there.
We've got the one project that we announced and the first quarter.
It has a consumption for capital spending this year and next and then we made the assumption I think we said as we said one more eco project and that so there is not a way.
We don't give.
Specifics on by project, what the capital is going to be but that's it. So there is no other assumptions beyond that in terms of other FICO.
And we will self fund so.
Okay.
And it sounded like Youre alluding to and your commentary Dave.
The 2022 free cash flow could also be negative.
I would assume some sort of improvement from the 2021 levels, but do you have and.
Any commentary around where 2022 free cash could fall out based on your <unk>.
<unk> for EBITDA.
Yes, so the.
I think some of the variables and we didn't go through all the details but.
And again this eco projects that we won on the first quarter on the water side, we will have more of its capital spending next year and then the big change.
Versus this year will actually be and increase the use of working capital for the project, we just discussed with.
And with Doug So that project just based on on the schedule and is still a little bit fluid as Andrew mentioned will actually be.
The larger use of working capital and deferred revenue will be at a similar level to this year cash.
Cash taxes similar level to this year.
Just again will depend on that balance that calculate that so it actually it would be and increase use of.
Working capital.
Capital next year versus this year, and and probably a similar type capex number so it will actually be.
On the larger use of cash next year than this year on higher earnings.
Okay got it.
<unk>.
Okay. That's helpful for sure and then just in terms of the capital structure review.
And you said you are not ruling out anything.
Do you think the board would be supportive of.
Issuing equity at these prices.
Yes, again on back of the answer for our board and I would just say that our board is to absolutely 100% committed to serving all of our stakeholders and you think about a comment like capital structure review, it's not just investors, but are obviously, an important stakeholder group its customers as well when you've got a pipeline like.
This our customers look to us and.
Want to know that the project will be executed flawlessly and behind US things. So I would say our board is very.
Very open and would consider any type of option.
And that makes sense for that stakeholder group.
We're not ruling out anything and thats that would be true.
And I'll turn it back thanks for the commentary and impressive growth outlook.
Our next question should be from the line of Samantha Hoh with Evercore ISI. You May proceed with your question.
Okay.
Hey, Thanks, guys.
And just to stay on that line of questioning.
And I have Scott and you guys talk with net lifetime.
Yes, a lot of what's going on.
Hi, just share momentum.
Maybe creatively for financing.
And it sounds like you're talking about a more holistic.
That's fair.
Okay.
Moving to be a hindrance and term loans.
Booking this preemptive second eco water project.
And we'll have some sort of structural and cultural that share.
Yeah.
Good luck.
No.
We said and the remarks that and assumes one more eco project and we would we would fund ourselves so whether thats a water project or a gas related project that's already contemplated.
And the guidance, we gave so not going to be a hindrance to that current.
Ongoing.
Tender process of the water deal.
And in terms of the project financing is certainly.
Sure.
Potentially and important longer term solution.
To resolve for two.
US extra capital.
And our priority.
And $3.
Thanks.
Okay and and maybe.
So maybe just to go back to the outlook and.
Yes.
In terms of.
And it's.
It definitely sounds like you guys are expanding on the.
Hum.
The market opportunity with different customers.
If you could sort of rank in terms of where that.
And he is coming from.
Thanks, Greg.
Alright.
And.
And and opportunities from oil and gas, but I'm kind of curious what other end markets you guys are targeting or how.
And market strength.
And within characterized our opportunities.
Yes, Samantha it's very hot I think thats and background noise on your end so maybe if you book.
And I will try to answer what I think you asked.
We're seeing a number of opportunities arise in various market and as I mentioned in my prepared remarks.
This technology was originally developed and.
Segment growth going back to clean.
Water municipalities.
And we're looking at areas that have <unk>.
Different applications and markets and mining and.
And so as we've been developing the technology for the oil and gas industry. We've also been talking to people and customers in that space and we're very we're very excited about the the productivity benefits that we can bring to that industry that started with the original technology, but really have just left it play out.
And so the benefits that we've seen from our customers Thats already used and the technology predominantly in the middle East, but also here in North America, the productivity benefits that we see we're able to reapply back to those spaces and so I wanted to give a little bit of a color today because.
As I have talked for a number of quarters about the transformation that we're on we started off back in 2016 sold multiple product lines exited a lot of the low margin commodity business and really started to focus on water as a as a product line and what we see going forward is on.
And I mentioned in my prepared remarks water is going to be a significant part of the company going forward and with the initial success. We've had at least with the discussions underway with customers. It's too early today to say what that will look like from an absolute industry segment perspective, but we're very confident that over the course of the.
Next.
Few quarters, we'll get some success put and this technology and the application and back into other segments, So make and exterran, even less reliant in the space that were predominantly and today, which is oil and gas and so very excited by.
The work that's taking place by the team it's multi region, we have opportunities that we're working on Latin America, we have some applications that we're working currently in Asia.
And on obviously, the middle East has been a big market for us and we will continue to be and.
And the future as well and over the course of the last 18 months as we build our capabilities in the regions both commercially and technically we're very confident that those applications will come to fruition and excited about the prospects that we see.
Okay, and just one last one on about the middle East It looks like from you had a nice step up sequentially. This quarter is there anything operating on a non normal basis out there now.
I didn't catch the first part of your question.
And just the middle East, Rob and you kind of nice sequential improvement there I was just wondering if that.
And all of that work and actually is operating normally now everything's recovery from COVID-19.
No I think as Andrew said, maybe in response to Doug's question.
COVID-19 challenge is still arent over the good news is our facility and our manufacturing facility engineering facility and the UAE.
Has recovered well and we're performing well, but I would say we continue to face some challenges.
And frankly coming from places like India, where we have engineering resources and supply base that ultimately reaches and that areas like that so I would say it feels a little better but I think the caution that Andrew provided is I think the world is far from past this and as we've all seen India has become a real.
Challenged and we're seeing regionally across the middle East there are some countries that are still kind of under the radar in terms of U S news, but are still dealing with some pretty <unk>.
Challenging situations, but I would say where.
We're getting through those it's not affecting our operations and it hasnt affected the large projects there at this point and Thats been predominantly engineering and manufacturing and get it ready things and our control, but far from being something that.
And that's over and it's part of our past we are going to probably continue to have to work through challenges for some time yet.
Okay and that does it for me and thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Brian <unk> with Baird. You May proceed with your question.
Good morning.
A couple of cleanup questions, what's the what's the current availability on your revolver.
Alright, and I don't know if I have that in front of me and it's over $100 million.
Yeah, I think a 110 approximately.
Okay, and we're going to see increased availability as EBITDA recovers correct right. So nice thing is with the outlook. We gave for the second quarter year over year. That's a nice improvement. So that's going to continue on and that was part of that is our outlook is for growing EBITDA and thats certainly going to help I mentioned some of our <unk>.
Average levels next year, this year, which would imply higher debt level on higher EBITDA, but.
We're certainly now and at a point where.
Growing EBIT is going on certainly help in terms of availability.
Okay.
Helps.
So as I'm looking at it right now and have approximately.
Give or take.
About $152 million totaled.
Total liquidity youre going to burn about $60 million to $70 million this year.
And then when you got that so the challenge really tons in 2022.
As you sort of hinted multiple tons about your.
And the strategic review of the capital structure.
Yes.
I said similar leverage levels next year. This year. So it's not a situation that we consider at all dire extreme but I think we'd have to be prudent as a company looking forward to make sure that we're.
Trying to anticipate.
And any challenges, but also the bigger motivation is the opportunities we see having a pipeline of.
Over $3 $5 billion just on things we're currently working.
It's really as much would be and prepared for that if not more but again growing EBIT, obviously solves some of those challenges.
Nope.
And I guess as you think about the.
This review.
Are you going to look to address the mismatch that you have in terms of where you are generating.
EBITDA and <unk>.
Full year interest expense here in the U S mail EBITDA outside of the U S youre going to try to resolve.
Some of that mismatch.
I mean, I would say again very encompassing review so.
Everything's on the table.
Thoughtful working with our book.
Bank partners.
And thinking through all the options.
Just will solidify the foundation on the company so.
Again, there is quite a range as you can imagine and then if things that we'll consider and look at and.
And see if it fits into the part of the solution.
Okay that goes from me. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of today's question and answer session I would like to turn this call back over to Mr. Andrew way for closing remarks.
Thank you operator, and thanks, everyone for dialing in today, we look forward to updating you at the end of the quarter and be safe out there. Thank you.
Thank you for joining US today. This concludes today's conference you may disconnect your lines at this time.
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