Q3 2021 Idacorp Inc Earnings Call
Okay.
Welcome to Ita Corp, third quarter 2021 earnings conference call today's call is being recorded and a webcast is life a complete replay will be available later today and for the next 12 months on the Ida Corp website.
If you need assistance at any time during the presentation. Please press star zero on your phone.
I will now turn the call over to Justin Forsberg director of Investor Relations and Treasury. Sir. Please go ahead.
Yeah.
Thank you and good afternoon, everyone. This morning, we issued and posted on <unk> website, our third quarter 2021 earnings release and Form 10-Q.
The slides that accompany today's call are also available on our website, we will refer to those slides by number throughout the call today.
As noted on slide two our discussion includes forward looking statements, including earnings guidance and spending forecast, which reflect our current views on what the future holds but are subject to several risks and uncertainties.
This cautionary note is also included in more detail for your review in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These.
These risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today and we caution against placing undue reliance on any forward looking statements.
As shown on slide three on today's call, we have Lisa grow either Corp's, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Steve Keen <unk> Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
We also have other company representatives available for Q&A session after Liza and Steve provide updates.
Slide four shows our quarterly financial results <unk> 2021 third quarter earnings per diluted share were $1 93.
The decrease of <unk> <unk> per share from last year's third quarter.
Earnings per diluted share over the first nine months of 2021 were $4 20.
Which were 25 above the same period last year.
The year to date earnings are the highest in the history of the company over the first nine months of the year.
Today, we also tightened our full year 2021, either Corp earnings guidance estimate upward to be in the range of $4 80 to $4 90 per diluted share with our expectation that Idaho power will not need to utilize in 2021 any of the additional tax credits that are available to support earnings under its Idaho regulatory.
<unk> settlement stipulation.
These are estimates as of today and they assume normal weather conditions and a continued returned to more normal economic conditions over the balance of 2021.
I will now turn the call over to Lisa.
Thank you Justin and thanks to everyone for joining us on today's call.
I will begin by addressing the robust economic growth, we continue to experience in Idaho power service area.
You'll see on slide five net customer growth has increased two 9% since September 2020, we.
We believe the quality of life.
Business friendly environment, and reliable affordable energy from Idaho power continued to attract a steady influx of business and residential customers to the benefit of both our company and the local economy.
While the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic linger, we continue to see a return on a return to normal operations for most of our commercial and industrial customers.
As at the end of September unemployment in our service area was two 6% compared to the current rate of four 8% nationally.
Total employment in our service area has increased three 3% over the past 12 months.
Moody's forecasted GDP now calls for economic growth of six 1% in 2021 and four 2% in 2022.
We are encouraged by this growth trend and forecast, especially considering the challenges we've all faced over the past 18 months.
At the local level, we are grateful to see businesses continued to bounce back from the various impacts of the pandemic.
Idaho power continues to experience a strong volume of potential customers interested in expanding in our service area.
Many prospective projects are expressing a need for rapid speed to market and are seeking existing buildings versus greenfield construction.
This demand is fueling significant industrial spec development to construct shell buildings, ranging from 50000 to 250000 square feet.
While the number of local developers are building out industrial parks. Several nationally recognized developers are making large investments in anticipation of ongoing growth in Idaho is industrial sector.
Yeah.
As you May know, Idaho power serves a large dairy industry and the state of Idaho ranks as the third largest dairy producing state in the U S.
We've recently received a number of inquiries for dairy waste to energy projects that use electricity as part of the process to produce renewable natural gas that is placed into pipeline.
One such project announced this month by shell oil products U S.
Will construct a waste to energy natural natural gas facility at a large dairy operation in southern Idaho.
The plan is for the gas to be shipped by pipeline from Idaho to California.
Youll recall that this summer brought extreme high temperatures to a region, which combined with customer growth led to record energy demand.
Idaho power hit a new all time peak load at 3751 megawatts on June 30th and exceeded the previous peak load more than 60 separate hours during June and July as the weather remained hot and dry over most of the summer.
This led to strong sales across most customer classes. The benefits of those sales were offset somewhat by Idaho Power's portion of the associated higher power supply cost in part because energy was at a premium across much of the west due to the persistent hot dry conditions.
Once again I'd like to thank our employees for helping us meet that record energy demand. It was a challenging summer and we learned some valuable lessons and I am so pleased to see that both our people and our grid, we're up to the task.
We anticipate sustained growth in the demand for electricity a challenge that is amplified by constraints in the transmission system impacting our ability to import energy into Idaho power system, especially during peak load period.
As a result, we will need new resources to serve customers and maintain system reliability.
Last quarter, I mentioned, Idaho power had issued a request for proposal to add 80 megawatts of new resources by summer 2023.
<unk> expects to issue an additional RSP in late 'twenty, one or early 'twenty two to meet anticipated needs beyond 2013.
Based on our efforts to address the 2023 projected low deficits youll see on slide six that we know could potentially add approximately $100 million in additional capital expenditures related to the 80 megawatt project during the current five year forecast window.
These new resources will be in addition to the 120 megawatt solar projects scheduled to come online at the end of next year and subordinate to Hemingway 500 kv transmission line.
And that will enable an increased import of energy from across the Pacific northwest as soon as 2026.
Our 2021 integrated resource planning efforts are focused on ensuring we continue to deliver reliable affordable clean energy for our growing customer base from diverse resources.
On the regulatory front I would like to provide an update on our recent request to accelerate depreciation for the Jim Bridger coal fired power plant.
Last quarter I mentioned, our filing with the Idaho Commission to increase rates $38 million in December of this year.
In September Pacific core, our co owner and operator at the Jim Bridger plant submitted an ERP to the Idaho Commission that contemplates ceasing coal fired generation units, one and two in 2023 and.
And converting those units to natural gas generation by 2024.
At a public meeting this week, the Idaho Commission approved a joint motion to suspend Idaho Power's rate request.
While the parties assess this option and environmental compliance requirements for the plant.
We expect to resolve the uncertainties in this case before the end of 2021.
I'd also like to share a brief update on the Boardman to Hemingway transmission line project.
In July Idaho power awarded contracts for detailed design Geotechnical investigation land surveying and right of way option acquisition for B to H network commenced during the third quarter.
Given the status of ongoing permitting activities and the construction period, Idaho power expects the in service date for the transmission line will be no earlier than 2026.
I have also mentioned on previous calls that Idaho power and our co participants are exploring several scenarios of ownership asset and service arrangements aimed at maximizing the value of the project for each of the co participants customers.
In July the co participants entered into an agreement and acknowledged that BPA does not intend to participate in the construction or become a co owner of the project and the BPA intends to sell its interest in the project to either Idaho power or a third party.
Any changes regarding the ownership structure would be addressed through amended or new agreements for future phases of the project we.
We hope to be able to share more detailed updates in the near term.
Given the expected increase in capital spending along with the current growth projection and other factors, Idaho power could file a general rate case in Idaho, and Oregon within the next couple of years.
Steady customer growth constructive regulatory outcomes and effective cost management and economic conditions. All played significant roles as we refine the need and timing of a future general rate case.
Slide seven shows the recent outlook of precipitation in whether from the national Oceanic and atmospheric administration.
Current weather projections for November through January show, a 33% to 40% chance for bolt above normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in much of Idaho power service area.
If these mild and wet conditions materialize. It can provide a needed boost to our regional snow pack as well as our forecast for the clean low hydro or low cost hydro generation that has traditionally been our single largest generation resource.
We will be praying for snow certainly and with the storms that this week, we are off to a great start.
And with that I will turn the call over to Steve.
Thanks Lisa.
Let's now move to slide eight.
Where you'll see our third quarter 2021 financial results as compared to the same period in 2020.
While this year's third quarter was a bit lower than last years related to the timing of irrigation sales in both years <unk> achieved the highest first nine months of earnings every quarter.
You had a very good quarter.
And with continued benefits from higher sales to new customers and higher sales in most customer classes as well as positive impacts from transmission revenues. We also saw lower sales to irrigation customers after strong irrigation loads in the second quarter.
And a return to more typical operating and maintenance expenses compared to the same periods last year.
On the table a quarter over quarter changes youll see our continuing customer growth added $5 $1 million to operating income.
Increased usage per customer drove operating income higher by $22 $9 million.
Cooling degree days were 14% higher than last year's third quarter.
Hot and dry conditions led to 3% higher residential per customer usage, while more normal operating conditions led to a respected 3% and 1% higher usage per commercial and industrial customers.
The timing of precipitation, which was higher than last year's third quarter and the early start in irrigation season that was reflected.
And our second quarter's results along with some limitations on water in the third quarter, all led to a 4% decline in irrigation per customer usage.
You'll note on the table that the combined usage changes led to a $2 million increase to operating income.
A higher usage for residential and small general service customers was partially offset by $1 $4 million of lower revenues from the FCA mechanism next on the table.
Further down you'll see a decrease in operating income of $3 million that relates to the change in the per megawatt hour revenue net power supply cost and power cost adjustment impacts quarter to quarter.
The primary driver of this decrease relates to the decrease in annual customer rates, reflecting the full depreciation of all boardman.
Power plant investments after ceasing coal fired operations at that plant last year and.
In addition, the balance of the decrease relates to the amount of net power supply expenses that were not deferred to Idaho Power's power cost adjustment mechanisms.
Recall that Idaho customers generally bear 95% for power supply cost fluctuations and those costs were higher as the summer heat wave impacted wholesale energy prices at a time of increased energy usage by our customers.
The heat wave also affected transmission Wheeling related revenues, which increased operating income by $4 7 million.
Wheeling volumes increased as utilities work to serve high demand by moving energy across our system.
The region during the quarter.
Combined with two new long term really Wheeling agreements that also increased transmission Wheeling related revenues this quarter.
And run through March of 2024.
Wieland customers also pay 10% more for Idaho Power's out rate that increased in October of 2020 to reflect higher transmission costs.
That out rate increased an additional 4% on October one 2021 to further reflect higher costs going forward.
Next on the table other operating and maintenance expenses increased by $4 9 million, primarily due to a return to more normal levels of purchase services and maintenance costs compared with the previous year's third quarter.
Which was more negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
While some economic effects of the pandemic continue much business activity has returned to more normal levels.
You'll note that we continue to expect our full year O&M to be within our previously guided range.
Finally income tax expense increased $3 $4 million this quarter due mostly to plant related income tax return adjustments, which were positive last year and slightly negative in 2021.
These are generally recorded during the third quarter each year upon completion of the prior year tax return.
The changes collectively resulted in a net decrease to Ida Corp's net income of $4 1 million or <unk> <unk> per share.
Earnings per diluted share over the first nine months of 2021 are well above the same period last year by 25.
<unk> and Idaho power continue to maintain strong balance sheets, including investment grade credit ratings at sound liquidity, which enable us to fund ongoing capital expenditures and distribute dividends to shareowners.
<unk> operating cash flows along with our liquidity positions as of the end of September 2021 are included on slide nine.
Cash flows from operations were about $19 million higher than the first nine months of last year.
The increase was mostly related to the timing of net collections of regulatory assets and liabilities and working capital fluctuations, partially offset by changes in deferred taxes and taxes accrued.
The liquidity available under <unk>, and Idaho Power's credit facilities is shown on the middle of slide nine.
At this time, we still do not anticipate raising any equity capital in 2021 or 2022.
Our combined liquidity along with expected regulatory support from our annual adjustment mechanisms is a substantial backstop to our expected capital and operating needs.
Slide 10 shows this year's revised full year earnings guidance and our key current key financial and operating metrics estimates given results year to date, we have lifted the bottom end of our range and now expect either Corp's 2021 earnings to be in the range of $4 82.
To $4 90 per diluted share.
This guidance assumes normal weather and operating conditions for the balance of the year.
Our guidance still assumes Idaho power will use no additional tax credits in 2021, and while we do not currently expect to record sharing of excess revenues with Idaho customers. This year.
The upper end of our range is near that level.
Recall that above a 10% return on equity in the Idaho jurisdiction, Idaho customers would receive 80% of any excess earnings.
Our expected full year O&M expense guidance remains in the range of $345 million to $355 million.
It's fair to say this goal to keep O&M relatively flat for the ninth straight year continues to be challenged by the level of customers and load growth we're experiencing.
We also reaffirm our capex forecast for this year in the range of $320 million to $330 million.
Our expectation for hydro generation was tightened within the range of five 4% to $5 7 million megawatt hours.
With that Lisa and I and others on the call will be happy to answer your questions.
We are now ready to begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question. Please do so by pressing star one on your phone we remind you to ensure your mute function is turned off before you ask your question.
We will take as many questions as time permits on a first come basis. Once again that is star one on your phone to ask a question now.
Okay.
Your first question comes from the line of Chris selling House from Siebert Williams. Please proceed with your question.
Hi, Chris.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Christina <unk> you may be muted.
<unk>.
We're still not hearing you Chris if you are talking.
Okay.
Seems chris' line has been disconnected, let's proceed with the next question.
Next question comes from the line of Ryan Greenwald from Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.
Good afternoon, everyone can you hear me.
Yes Hello.
Thanks for taking our questions.
Maybe first as you guys worked through initial modeling for the upcoming AARP here any initial thoughts around quantifying the magnitude of further potential generation opportunities.
Adam do you want yes, absolutely yes.
Don't kind of the modeling stages that you mentioned.
That should be done here in November and December.
At least mentioned the 80 megawatts that we're seeing in 'twenty three it's preliminary but we are seeing several hundred megawatts potentially in 'twenty four 'twenty five as well and then a decent amount of resources needed throughout the next couple of decades actually so it's all early stage modeling, we're going to be refining that.
And again it should be completed near November December but yes. The early indication is there is going to be some infrastructure needs moving forward.
Got it and then it seems like you guys have been doing a pretty decent job of navigating the supply chain challenges here, but any concerns around that shifting the dynamic here in terms of the opportunities.
Certainly I mean.
All of US are concerned about it but I will say that our team has done a really good job at trying to anticipate and get ahead of.
What we can see coming so we're hopeful that that the supply chain issues will work itself out over time, but but we are being very proactive Adam I don't necessary, yes, no I agree we're monitoring the market, we're increasing our inventory levels were purchasing larger quantities.
<unk> using new vendors so.
Trying to get ahead of it and so far so good.
Great and then maybe just lastly in terms of the new transmission long term contracts, how should we kind of think about the step up into next year.
Okay.
Each contract or are you talking about.
The one Steve was referring to I think those wielding contracts Lisa.
Do you want to take that yes, im happy to take that too.
Lisa mentioned, it and then part.
Part of the good news is we have seen increases in the rates, they're bolt in 2021 and 2022 will be in 2022, 4%.
Wheeling rates have been great. The volumes have been great. This year six out of the nine months, so far in our IL six months ever.
And so we continue to be bullish on transmission and it continues to be used as people.
Entities move.
Clean energy throughout our system and through other systems.
Yeah.
Great I'll leave it there and looking forward to seeing you guys.
Yes, looking forward to it.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Brian Russo from Sidoti. Your line is open.
Hi, Brian Hi, Good evening, Hi, good afternoon.
Hey, just on.
Boardman to Hemingway, which.
I assume will be a preferred.
Part of the preferred plan in the upcoming IOP.
The most recent estimated $1 1 billion, but when was that estimate and projection set.
I suppose that in this upcoming IOP it will reflect updated estimates on the given the generic environment.
Currency.
Yes.
They get refreshed on a fairly regular basis and Adam I'll have you or Mitch add some other color yes.
The 1% to $1 two has existed for a while at least every year every year and a half we've refreshed that obviously when we go out to bid, which we'll plan to do here.
In the future, we will be able to refine those but we've really tried to keep a handle on those costs and were checking them periodically to make sure its still in that range and it is.
Okay, and when can we see outcome.
The 80 megawatt RFP.
We're looking to this is Adam again, we're looking to.
Those negotiations over the next month or so so.
We're cautiously optimistic that it'll be by the end of the year.
Yeah.
Okay, and just to clarify the $100 million of incremental Capex is that.
Is that kind of euro Mark if you were to win the 80 megawatt RFP.
Or is that incremental or separate.
Yes, it kind of depends on how it is structured but right now we're looking at a build the transfer model and so yes that would be.
Capital costs that we would expand.
Okay got it.
And obviously you guys have done a great job of.
Controlling O&M over the last 10 years can you talk about the base O&M break it down maybe between labor and other type of expenses and where you are seeing.
The most inflationary pressures that we should look at when we look forward to 2022.
Well I'll start.
We're seeing sort of all across the board certainly we've talked about supply chain and the cost increases on just materials.
That drives cost of service.
Purchase services as well and then labor.
We're seeing that across the board.
In all industries there is significant.
The battle for talent and the cost of living increases.
Increases that we're watching carefully so I would say, it's we're seeing pressures just about every place in O&M.
Okay.
Got it.
Okay. That's it from me thank you very much.
Thank you Brian.
And our final opportunity Crestar one the signal for a question again, just press star one on your telephone keypad.
Yeah.
Okay.
Yeah.
That concludes the question and answer session for today, Mr. <unk> I will turn the conference back to you.
Thank you all for your continued interest in <unk>, we look forward to seeing many of you in person in at the EI Financial conference in a couple of weeks and I continue to wish you all good health and hope you have a wonderful evening. Thank you.
That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.
Okay.
Okay.
Thanks.
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