Q2 2022 Lamb Weston Holdings Inc Earnings Call
Ladies and gentlemen, you're currently on hold for today's Lamb Weston second quarter 2022 earnings conference call at this time, Mr. Meaning additional participants who do plan to be underway momentarily. We appreciate your patience with that so you. Please remain on the line.
[music].
Please standby we're about to begin.
Good day and welcome to the Lamb Weston second quarter 2022 earnings Conference call. Today's conference is being recorded at this time I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dextra Conboy VP Investor Relations of Lamb Weston. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Lamb Weston second quarter 2022 earnings call.
This morning, we issued our earnings press release, which is available on our website Lamb Weston Dot com.
Please note that during our remarks, we'll make some forward looking statements about the Companys expected performance.
These statements are based on how we see things today.
Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.
Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our SEC filings for more details on our forward looking statements.
Some of today's remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for that should be read together with GAAP results.
The GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations in our earnings release.
With me today are Tom Werner, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Bernadette Andre <unk>, our Chief Financial Officer.
Tom will provide some comments on our performance as well as an overview of the current operating environment.
Brian will then provide details on our second quarter results and updated fiscal 2022.
With that let me now turn the call over to Tom. Thank you Victor Good morning, and thank you for joining our call today, we're pleased with the improvement in our manufacturing and supply chain operations as well as the progress in our financial performance in the quarter and I'm proud of how Lamb Weston team has been able to navigate through this difficult macro environment.
We generated strong sales and solid demand across our food away from home channels drove volume growth and the initial benefits of our recent pricing actions began to offset inflationary pressures.
In addition, our efforts to stabilize our manufacturing operations are on track, including increasing staffing in our processing plants improved production run rates and throughput.
Together, our sales and operating momentum drove sequential gross margin improvement in the quarter and have us well positioned to better manage the upcoming cost pressures from this year's exceptionally poor potato crop in the Pacific northwest.
While our operations or financial results are not yet where we want them to be we're on track to deliver our financial targets for the year and our investments in capacity and productivity will get us well positioned to deliver higher margins and sustainable growth over the long term.
Before her that gets into some of the specifics of our second quarter results and outlook, Let's briefly review the current operating environment starting with demand.
In the U S. Overall fry demand in restaurant traffic in the quarter remained solid especially of quick service restaurants, where demand has continued to be strong and above pre pandemic levels.
Traffic at full service restaurants during the quarter was also solid but remain below pre pandemic levels restaurant traffic, though has softened recently as the spread of Covid Barry in September consumer demand for on premise dining.
And as restaurants closed temporarily due to staff shortages.
We expect the Covid wave will continue to temper demand for on premise dining in the near term, we do not anticipate that it will have a meaningful effect on traffic or demand at usr's.
Demand at noncommercial outlets also improved during the quarter, but continued to be below pre pandemic levels as with off premise dining we expect the spread of COVID-19 variance will affect near term demand.
The French adjuvant rate in the U S, which is the rate at which consumers order fries, when visiting our restaurants or other foodservice outlets continue to be above pre pandemic levels.
This served to support our out of home Friday man in the quarter.
Increasingly it Brian attachment rate has been fairly consistent since the beginning of the pandemic, we do not see that changing in the near term.
Friday man in U S retail channels in the quarter was up mid teens from pre pandemic levels and we anticipate it will remain strong in the near term as the pandemic continues to affect demand in out of home channels.
Now outside the U S.
Demand in Asia, and Oceana has been solid although the lack of shipping containers and disruptions to ocean freight networks continues to hinder our ability to fully serve our customers in these markets.
Demand in Europe, which is served by our Lamb Weston Meyer joint venture has also been solid although a consumer reaction and the effect of recently imposed government Lockdowns may reverse some of the recovery in restaurant traffic and Friday man in the near term.
So overall, we're encouraged by the resiliency of demand in the long term trends for the category, but expect that there will be some near term softness with another COVID-19 wave in the U S and our key international markets.
With respect to pricing, we're making good progress in implementing recent pricing actions to manage input cost inflation.
In the second quarter, we began to see the initial benefits of the price increases that took effect in the summer in our foodservice and retail segments as well as in some of our international businesses.
We expect the benefit of these prices will continue to build as the year progresses.
In December we began implementing another round of pricing actions in our foodservice and retail segments. While these actions did not affect our second quarter results, we will see a gradual benefit from them over the next six months.
In our global segment, we saw some benefit of pricing actions in the second quarter, but expect to see a greater impact during the back half of the year. This reflects price increases related to contact contract renewals as well as the benefit of price escalators for most of the global contracts that are up for renewal this year.
We expect these price increases across our business segments will in aggregate mitigate much but not all of our cost inflation pressures.
We'll continue to assess the pace and scope of further cost inflation and we may take further price actions as the year progresses.
With respect to cost input cost inflation remains the primary driver to the increase in our cost per pound in the quarter.
Commodity and transportation costs were each up double digits, and we expect that trend will continue through physical 2022, especially as a raw potato costs significantly increase in the second half of the year.
Outside of cost inflation, we're making good progress to stabilize our supply chain in order to improve cost production run rates and throughput.
We've taken actions to simplify our manufacturing processes and drive savings through a series of productivity initiatives, eliminating underperforming skus and increasing potato utilization rates.
Importantly, after making changes to how we staff production crews compensation and other incentives we steadily reduced our staffing shortfall.
We're working to continue this positive trend, but realize it's difficult in a very challenging labor environment.
The pending implementation of government mandated COVID-19 testing and vaccine regulations may also slower progress than that of our suppliers and attracting and retaining workers in the near term.
Now turning to the crop.
The yields and quality of the potato crops that are primary growing regions in the Columbia Basin, Idaho in Alberta are well below average due to the extreme heat over the summer Sim.
Similar to prior years, we had contracted with farmers to purchase potatoes to meet our production needs assuming an average crop year.
But because of the extreme heat in contracted acres yielded pure potatoes, and the quality is also poor.
As a result, we're purchasing our remaining potato needs in the open market to meet our production forecast, we were able to reduce the number of potatoes, we would otherwise have been required to purchase in the open market by successfully partnering with our customers to secure changes to product specifications.
Given that raw potato supply is tight and that Fry demand has largely recovered we've been purchasing open potatoes at a premium to contracted potato prices when possible we've been securing them from our nearby growing regions, but we are also transport of potatoes for the Midwest and Eastern North America, which.
Results and increased transportation costs. We included an estimate of these additional costs in our updated earnings outlook.
We will begin to see more of the financial impact of this year's poor crop, including the high cost of open market potatoes in our third quarter results.
So in summary, we feel good about our financial and operating progress in the quarter.
The overall demand environment is solid but may soften in the near term due to another COVID-19 wave.
We're pulling the right pricing and operating levers to manage through this challenging environment.
Let me now turn the call over to borrow that to review the details of our second quarter results and updated physical 2022 outlook.
Thanks, Tom and good morning, everyone.
As Tom discussed we are pleased with our progress in the quarter, we generated strong sale as solid demand across our restaurant and foodservice channels in North America drove volume growth and we implemented pricing actions.
We believe our pricing and cost mitigation actions have us positioned to navigate through this difficult operating environment and to support sustainable profitable growth over the long term.
Specifically in the quarter sales increased 12% to a little over $1 billion.
This is only the fourth time in Lamb Weston history that we topped $1 billion of sales in a quarter.
Sales volumes were up 6%.
Growth was driven by our foodservice segment, which reflects the continued year over year recovery in on premise dining and by strong shipments to our large chain restaurant customers in North America that are served by our global segment.
Sales volumes of branded products in our retail segment were also up in the quarter, but the segment's overall volume decline due primarily to lower shipments of private label products.
While our overall volume growth in the quarter was strong it was tempered by industry wide upstream and downstream supply chain constraints, including delays in the availability of spare parts edible oils and other key materials to our factories as well as labor shortages, which impacted production run rate.
And to put at our processing plants.
In our global segment volume growth was also tempered by the limited availability of shipping containers and disruptions at port and an ocean freight networks.
We expect these production and logistic challenges as well as the near term impact of Covid variance to limit our volume growth through at least the end of fiscal 2022.
Price mix was up 6% as we realized benefits from our previously announced pricing actions in each of our core segments.
As a reminder, we began implementing product pricing actions in the first quarter as the primary lever to offset inflationary cost pressures and it generally takes a couple of quarters before these actions are fully realized in the marketplace.
We've also taken actions to more frequently change the freight rates that we charge to customers. So they better reflect market rates historically, we only adjusted these rates once or twice a year.
Most of the increase in price mix in the quarter reflects these product and freight pricing actions with favorable mix, providing only a modest benefit.
Gross profit in the quarter declined $18 million.
The benefit of increased sale was more than offset by higher manufacturing and transportation costs on a per pound basis.
Double digit inflation for commodities and transportation costs accounted for almost 90% of the increase in cost per pound.
The two commodities played a bigger role and were again led by edible oils, including canola oil, which nearly doubled versus the prior year quarter.
Ingredients, such as wheat, starches used to make batter and other coding.
And containerboard and plastic film for packaging.
Great costs rose, especially for Ocean freight and trucking as global logistics network continued to struggle.
Our costs also increased due to an unfavorable mix of higher cost trucking versus rail in order to meet service obligations for certain for certain customers.
As Tom mentioned, we also incurred higher cost per pound versus the prior year due to incremental costs and inefficiencies driven by lower production run rate and throughput at our factories, which resulted in fewer pounds to cover fixed overhead.
Lost production days and unplanned downtime were primarily due to labor shortages across our manufacturing network, including Covid related absenteeism.
While the cost drivers in the first two quarters of the year have been largely consistent in the second quarter. We began to realize the initial benefits of the pricing and cost mitigation actions that we death discussed during our last earnings call.
As a result of these efforts gross margin increased sequentially versus the first quarter by 500 basis points to more than 20%.
Well pricing actions provided the larger lift to the sequential improvement to gross margin our production run rates and throughput improved sequentially, primarily due to our efforts to stabilize factory labor.
While it's still lower than average labor retention rates improved modestly versus the first quarter and the number of new applicants has been steady.
With more stability, we in turn drove more factory throughput.
Finally, our actions to optimize our portfolio are also providing benefit.
We've eliminated underperforming skus to simplify our portfolio and increased throughput in our factories.
We've also successfully partnered with our large customers to secure changes to product specification to mitigate a portion of the operating impact of the poor quality of this year's potato crop.
In short, while our run rates and cost structure are not yet where we want them to be we look forward to building on the notable sequential progress that we made in the quarter.
And believe that we've positioned ourselves to manage through this challenging near term increased cost and poor potato crop environment.
Moving on from cost of sales are.
Our SG&A increased $7 million in the quarter largely due to a couple of factors.
It reflects higher labor and benefit costs and higher sales commissions associated with increased sales volumes.
Second it includes a two and a half million dollar increase in advertising and promotional expenses as we stepped up support for our retail products.
While these expenses are up compared with the prior year they are still below pre pandemic level.
The increase in SG&A was partially offset by a reduction in consulting expenses associated with improving our commercial and supply chain operation as those consulting projects ended as well as fewer expenses in the current quarter related to the design of a new enterprise resource planning system. We.
We had approximately $2 million of ERP related expenses in the quarter, which consisted primarily of consulting expenses, that's down from about $5 million of similar type expenses in the prior year quarter.
We are resuming our efforts in the second half of fiscal 2022 to design. The next phase of our new ERP system.
Diluted earnings per share in the quarter was 22 down 44 cents.
About 28 cents of the decline was related to costs associated with the redemption and write off of previously unamortized debt issuance costs related to the senior notes that were originally issued in connection with our spin off from Conagra in November 2016.
We identified these costs as items impacting comparability in our non-GAAP results.
Excluding the impact of these items adjusted diluted EPS was 50.
Which is down 16% due to lower income from operations and equity method earnings.
Moving to our segments.
Sales for our global segment were up 9% in the quarter.
Price mix was up 5%, reflecting a balance of higher prices charged for freight pricing actions associated with customer contract renewals and inflation driven price escalators.
Volume was up 4% higher shipments to large chain restaurant customers in North America drove the volume increase while logistics constraints temper our international shipments.
Overall, the global segment's total shipments continued to trend above pre pandemic level.
Global's product contribution margin, which is gross profit less A&P expenses declined 13% to $81 million.
Higher manufacturing and distribution cost per pound more than offset the benefit of favorable price mix and higher sales volumes.
Moving to our foodservice segment.
Sales increased 30% with volume up 22% and price mix up 8%.
The ongoing recovery in demand from small and regional restaurant chain and independently owned restaurants.
As well as from noncommercial customers drove the increase in sales volumes.
The initial benefits of product and freight pricing actions that we began implementing earlier this fiscal year as well as favorable mix drove the increase in price mix.
Food services product contribution margin rose, 19% to $104 million as favorable price mix and higher sales volumes more than offset higher manufacturing and distribution costs per pound.
Moving to our retail segment.
<unk> increased 1%.
Price mix increased 5%, reflecting the initial benefits of pricing actions in our branded portfolio higher prices charged for freight and improved mix.
Sales volume declined 4% as an increase in branded product volume was more than offset by lower shipments of private label products, resulting from incremental losses of certain low margin business.
Retail shipments in the quarter were also tempered by the industry wide supply chain constraints and production disruption that I discussed earlier.
Retail's product contribution margin declined 29% to $21 million.
Higher manufacturing and distribution cost per pound of $2 million increase in A&P expenses and lower sales volumes drove the decline.
Moving to our liquidity position and cash flow.
Our liquidity position remains strong we ended the first half of fiscal 2022 with almost $625 million of cash and $1 billion of availability on our undrawn revolver.
In the first half we generated more than $205 million of cash from operations.
That's down about $110 million versus the first half of the prior year due primarily to lower earnings.
During the first half of the year, we spent nearly $150 million in capital expenditures as we continued construction of our chopped and formed expansion and American falls, Idaho, and our new processing lines and American falls in China.
We continue to put significant effort into managing certain material equipment and labor availability issues to keep our capital projects on track.
In the first half of the year, we returned $145 million to shareholders, including nearly $70 million in dividends and $76 million of share repurchases.
This includes $50 million of share repurchases in the second quarter alone.
Last month, we announced a 4% increase in our quarterly dividend rate, which equates to approximately $144 million annually.
And a $250 million increase to our current share repurchase plan.
<unk> our confidence in the long term potential of our business.
As a result, we have about $344 million authorized for share repurchases under the updated plan.
As I referenced earlier during the quarter, we redeemed and issued nearly one $7 billion of senior notes and.
In doing so our average debt maturity increased from four years to more than seven years, and we reduced our annual interest expense by approximately eight and a half million dollars.
We remain committed to our capital allocation priorities first to reinvest in our business, both organically and with M&A and then to return free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases over time.
Now turning to our updated outlook.
We continue to expect our full year sales growth in fiscal 2022 to be above our long term target of low to mid single digits.
In the third quarter, we anticipate price mix will be up sequentially versus the 6% increase that we delivered in the second quarter as the benefit of previously announced product pricing actions in each of our core segments continues to build.
We expect volume growth in the third quarter will decelerate sequentially versus the 6% we delivered in second quarter.
As a result of the near term impact of Covid variance on restaurant traffic and demand.
The macro industry supply chain constraints and labor challenges that will continue to affect production run rates and throughput in our factory.
And global logistics disruptions and container shortages.
That affect both domestic and export shipments.
We expect further deceleration in the fourth quarter as we begin to lap some of the higher volume comparison from the prior year.
With respect to earnings we continue to expect net income and adjusted EBITDA, including joint ventures will be pressured to fiscal 2022, reflecting significantly higher potato costs in the second half of the year, resulting from the poor crop double digit inflation for key production inputs.
In freight and higher SG&A expenses.
For the full year, we expect our gross margin will be 600 to 700 basis points below our pre pandemic margin rate of 25% to 26%, implying a target range of 18% to 20%.
That's a change from the 17% to 21% range that we provided in our previous outlook.
We narrowed the range for a number of reasons.
We're confident about the pace and execution of the product and freight price increases that we are implementing in the market.
Second we expect to build upon the incremental progress that we made in the second quarter to stabilize our supply chain operations and drive savings behind our cost mitigation initiatives. However.
However, we expect that the improvement in our run rate throughput and cost will continue to be gradual reflecting the broader macro challenges facing the labor market that will likely persist through fiscal 2022.
And third we have greater clarity on the net cost impact from this year's exceptionally poor potato crop.
As a reminder, we'll begin to realize the full financial impact of this year's poor potato crop in the third quarter and will continue to realize its effect through most of the second quarter of fiscal 2023.
Below gross margin, we expect our SG&A expenses to step up to $100 million to $110 million in the third and fourth quarters as we begin design the second phase of our new ERP project.
Equity earnings will likely remain pressured due to input cost inflation and higher manufacturing costs, both in Europe and the U S.
We expect our interest expense to be approximately $110 million, excluding the $53 million of costs associated with the redemption of the senior notes in the second quarter.
We previously estimated interest expense to be approximately $115 million.
Our estimates for total depreciation and amortization expense of approximately $190 million and.
An effective tax rate of approximately 22% and capital expenditures of approximately $450 million remains unchanged.
So in sum, we're seeing the benefit of our pricing actions, which drove the sequential improvement in our top line and gross margin in the quarter.
Along with our pricing actions were on track with our other cost mitigation initiatives positioning us to manage through the impact of the very poor crop and finally for fiscal 2022. We continue to expect net sales growth will be above our long term target of low to mid single digits and we have enough clarity in our sales and.
Cost outlook to narrow our previous target gross margin right now.
Now here's Tom for some closing comments. Thanks, Bernadette, let me just quickly reiterate our thoughts on the quarter by saying, we're pleased with our progress in the quarter and we're taking the right steps on pricing actions and in our supply chain operations to navigate through this difficult operating environment.
We are on track to deliver on our targets for the year and we believe we're on a path to get back to pre pandemic profit levels. After we get past the impact of the poor crop in the first half of physical 2023, and remain committed to investing to support growth and create value for our stakeholders over the long term.
Thank you for joining us today and were now ready to take your questions.
Thank you.
I'd like to ask a question. Please signal pressing star one on your telephone keypad, if youre using a speakerphone. Please do make sure that your mute function is turned off to lay your signal to reach our equipment. Once again that is star one if you'd like to ask a question.
We'll take our first question from Chris Growe with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning, Chris Congrats.
This quarter there are for the second quarter here I had two questions for you first one to ask in relation to pricing you mentioned, Tom that pricing will mitigate much of the input cost pressure, but not all of it and that's not surprising as pricing picks up here I know you also have some product spec changes, probably some productivity savings coming through.
Perhaps even some lower COVID-19 costs year over year I, just want to get a sense if I if I bundle all that together and I look ahead, whether it's third quarter fourth quarter, you know in the second half will be a point, where you are able to offset the majority or all of the inflation or are those other factors beyond pricing and helping offset some of the inflation.
Yes, it's a combination of everything you just said, Chris and we expect as we progress through the back half of the year as we said, we'll start seeing more price realization based on the actions we have taken to this point and you know also as we continue.
Continue to you know.
Evaluate our input cost Inflations and you know what's going on with the you know the crop in the open potatoes, all those factors.
The commercial team, we're constantly evaluating you know when I'm worried.
Introduced new pricing in the market. So it's multiple factors as you indicated.
We're managing it real time, and we're gonna have to continue to do that because of the inflationary environment right now is pretty volatile.
Okay.
And then I had another question in there a couple of items you noted in the press release around production run rates, which are down and raw potato utilization and then not to get too deep in the weeds, but those are items that are hard for us to model in and or things that are that are unique to your business I just want to get a sense of like from a production run rate standpoint, how much is it down.
You could even say that in and raw potato utilization how much are you able to utilize the potatoes.
From what it was in the past.
Yeah, you know broad strokes historically, we talked about running our factories.
Add capacity I'd say, we're down around 10 points to that right now and some weeks a little below that a couple of points even down further the team is making great progress.
You know as part of that is stated our staffing is improving.
Although gradually and we expect you know.
Hopefully by the spring ish.
We'll have our staffing situations squared away, but the labor market's tough.
And you know in terms of potato.
Potato utilization.
It is.
Historically I'll just give you that hours broad strokes, we utilized about 62% of the potato to make fries.
You know with the poor crop right now it's you know that's down.
Five to seven points and that's something we're really watching closely it's going to be pretty volatile in the back half of the year as we start queuing up the new crop potatoes, Bacon fries. So hopefully that gives you some.
Something to range.
It does yeah. Thank you for the color and then I'll look I appreciate it.
Thank you we'll hear next from Peter Galbo with Bank of America.
Good morning, Peter Hey, guys. Good morning, Thanks for taking my questions.
Tal.
Tom I was wondering.
You spent a bit of time talking about some of the manufacturing initiatives.
If you could expand you know some of the detailed there on just what exactly youre doing to set yourself up in a position.
You know once we get beyond this core crop, what's really going to kind of help you regain some of that profitability and I you know I know Dexter isn't around kind of some of the some of the videos.
Put out on.
Automating more of the plants, but just what youre doing in the plants to improve there and then also just as you start thinking about you know planting for this next crop right that the 2022 crop.
What are the conversations you're having with farmers are you starting earlier in the warranty group being planted anything you can do to help us kind of thinking about the go forward.
Yeah, just in terms of the productivity we have a win is one initiative, which is a I'll call. It a pretty systematic savings program that.
We kicked off in the summer of 2020, and we're making progress against that and as we.
Become more stable in our operating environment. My expectation is that's going to that's going to drive.
<unk> savings that will be a parent.
As we get through a more stabilized cost environment going forward and you know we're rolling it out systematically across our network, we're not all the way to bright rolling it out to all of our plants, it's taken a bit more time because of the current operating environment and the focus on ensuring we get our our throughput rates up in <unk>.
Wrapping it all that so I expect it to.
Be more visible in our margins are most of the operating environment stabilizes and you know with respect to the 20th wanted to drop.
It's early on I'm, not going to get into specifics on discussions with growers.
And you know there'll be some some news come out and I'll talk more about the third quarter.
Right.
Okay.
That's helpful. I appreciate that.
I guess the other just broader question you spent a bit of time in your prepared remarks talking about bright attachment rate running at a pretty healthy level EBIT, even from pre pandemic and just.
In the Salesforce conversations with restaurant customers.
Is it really a structural change that you're seeing at this point, we've heard a lot about you know menu restaurant operators, you're routing their menus and do you feel like that's just temporary until we get through all the supply chain noise across everything or do you really feel like it's structural.
You know, it's it's really hard to say.
You know across a the entire menu of our restaurant what I will tell you is from our side option standpoint.
Obviously, French fries are really good category and you know the the they are an important part of the operator's menu item because of profitability. So.
You know while.
There has been a lot of simplification and we've done the same thing within our portfolio with our SKU rationalization project.
I think I think the simplification of menus is going to be around for a while and you know a lot of it.
It is going to have to do with the overall supply chain worldwide in food in and have an availability.
Love the products the menu at a normalized regular basis. So I think this has gotta be around for a while the good news is our categories is more or less.
Back to pre pandemic levels.
And it remains an important menu driver and a profit driver for our customers.
Yeah.
Thanks, very much guys.
Thank you we'll take our next question from Tom Palmer with Jpmorgan.
Good morning, and thanks for the question.
I wanted to ask on the the price mix side. So you indicated in prepared remarks price mix should continue to ramp as the year progresses.
Based on what you have secured thus far how should we think about the pace of that step up is the biggest sequential step up as we go quarter by quarter going to be what we just saw from the first quarter to the second quarter or should we look for even more substantial increases.
It can hold as we see pricing flow through more clearly in our global segment.
Yeah. Thanks, Tom This is Bernie that you know, we do expect price mix to.
Go up sequentially in Q3 from the plus 6% that we reported in Q2 again, that's just broad based pricing actions, becoming more fully implemented.
Sorry, maybe just to clarify the step up that we saw from <unk> to <unk> should we see something similar to that.
No.
No I wouldn't expect that large of an increase.
Okay. Thank you.
And then just wanted to ask on the freight surcharge have you seen that have much impact from a competitive standpoint are you seeing competitors take similar actions and that is just kind of a broader industry change.
Yeah, I can't speak to what competitors are doing but I can say from our standpoint, we arent seeing a lot of them are customers switching freight lanes or that sort of thing so.
We continue to remain competitive.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you we'll take our next question from and Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Yes, thanks, good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Adam.
So my first question is really trying to take a step back and you've updated kind of the margin framework for this year to 18% to 20%.
Maybe just as we think about those longer term aspirations to get back the margins back to prepay debt back level of 'twenty five 'twenty, 6% can you help us think about kind of the key buckets of that bridge in the 5% to 700 basis points that you still would have to get.
Whether it is just much more just much more aggressive pricing.
Recapturing kind of that that 10 points of capacity utilization and the benefits that would have on your on your unit cost I'm just trying to think about the productivity actions. You are taking this I'm trying to think about how we walk back up to 25 and kind of some of the key milestones to think about getting that.
Yeah. So as we think about our tactics to getting back to those levels, it's going to be important that we have an average crop year first of all and then we're going to have to have sufficient pricing to offset input and transportation inflation.
Our supply chain will have had to have stabilized and no significant impact on demand, which we're not anticipating so those are going to be the key things that are going to be important to return to that pre pandemic margin level.
We think that you know that's absolutely there and that supported by the solid health in the long term growth of the frozen potato category that we continue to see.
Okay and the clarity other thing the other thing I'll add on that is you know the productivity initiatives that we're rolling out and the cost saving projects were introducing into some of our factories are also going to.
Help us hopefully bridge back to that and then some.
Okay, and just to clarify on the point on a normal potato crop.
Does the normal potato crop.
Not just yields is because I'm thinking about kind of what youre contracted for sale prices are going to look like in calendar 'twenty two and they are probably going to be up a lot. So I'm just trying to think about.
Yeah normal yield yeah, it's a combination of a couple of different things.
Its yield per acre.
And it's recovery as we're Prost.
Processing them in the plan on kind of the range a number as I said earlier, but and you know it's you know.
Size and quality and all those kind of things that there's kind of three or four factors there.
Okay and then just separate question you talked Tom about your capacity utilization, maybe you're running about 10 points below kind of your normal for you.
You also talk about underlying demand in the category of returning to pre pandemic levels pre pandemic youre running base.
Basically add capacity.
Do you think.
Have you exceeded some business in some areas or just areas. You think there is competitors have gained market share in areas of the market that you want to keep or is it more just the low end retail areas that you've kind of walked away from.
Yeah, I mean, we're we're we're managing our customer portfolio at them and there's areas where.
We made some tough decisions not to serve some customers you know, but it's.
You know, it's it's pretty.
We have to be very nimble and flexible in this environment to have that and the team's doing a good job, but we've made some tough calls and you know in terms of the market share in all of those kinds of things.
You know I haven't seen the latest data, but the the category share.
Pie so to speak really hasn't changed that much.
And you know so I think everybody's battle on the current operating environment and you know working through it as best they can.
Okay that color is really helpful. I'll pass it on thanks.
Okay.
Thank you we'll take our next question from Robert Dickerson with Jefferies.
Great. Thanks, so much.
Just first question just to clarify on the guidance.
Range narrowed 18% to 20%.
Which is great and helpful.
But you also know we have a half a year relative to the full year. So just ask you Tom I'm curious kind of given that range.
What that could imply the low end or the high end in the back half is still fairly wide. So maybe if you could just kind of comment on.
What could be some of the drivers that would get you to the lower end and then what could be some of the drivers that could actually get you to the hybrid.
And then I have a quick follow up.
Yeah. So you know talk about couple of things as it relates to our guidance in the first half, we're already plus 13% and.
As it relates to growth and in the second half, we do expect prices to accelerate from the plus 6% that we recorded a reported in Q2. So on the second half volume is going to continue to grow although below the 6% that we delivered in the second quarter and we.
You talked about all the reasons for that.
We looked at the range of guidance that we provided we wanted to provide prudent guidance as the operating environment does still remain really challenging them and we've got volatility in our near put near term input costs and ongoing production disruptions and things and that's what's going to.
<unk> results and whether or not we end up at the bottom or the top of the range. The other key piece.
That's gonna effects, where we land in that range is going to be the storage performance of these potatoes, we talked about it being a very poor crop and we don't know how it's going to the store and that's going to affect our potato utilization and then the other piece is.
While we feel good about our cost estimates related to our open market purchases.
And we procured most of those we still are out and procuring those potatoes, and so that's what's going to tend.
<unk> tend to coalesce from one end to the other of our gross margin range that we provided.
Okay very helpful.
And then I guess, Tom just quickly I heard you briefly before comment that.
Hope to have some of the labor situation kind of self corrected sometime in the spring.
Which sounds like you're what would imply that.
As we look forward into 'twenty, three hopefully you're sitting in a good position on the labor front I kind of asked because obviously that flows through into <unk>.
Incremental cost and throughput, but what have you.
Any additional commentary on that would be helpful. That's it thanks.
Yeah sure. So you know like I said, we've made really good progress with our.
Staffing up in our factories in particular based on some of the actions we've taken.
And they are sticky too so.
You know.
And that gives me confidence based on the last couple of 60 90 day trends just in terms of of labor or filling jobs those kind of things that if that continues then we should be in really good shape in the next 60 90 days.
Okay Super Thanks, so much.
Thank you.
We'll take a next question from William Reuter with Bank of America.
Good morning.
My question it sounds like the context of the December increase versus the one which was pushed through earlier. This year that it was relatively small I guess is that the case and two I guess I'm just wondering how much ability do you think you have for further price increases should they be needed next year.
Yeah. Thanks for the question as it relates to the price increases.
As a reminder, it does take on.
Either one to two quarters for that price increase to see.
So it's a result in the quarter.
So I think take a look for that and then as it relates to any future price increases you know we don't comment on those other than to say we are.
We're expecting to see higher potato costs next year, just given the higher cost to grow fertilizer et cetera, and so there could potentially.
These future price announcements.
Okay and then just the second one for me on capital allocation you accelerated the share repurchases in the second quarter also increased the dividends well what are your thoughts on uses of capital given that you do have such high such large capex projects over the next several years in terms of share repurchases.
Yes.
Yeah. So we have announced many expansion that we believe have attractive returns and so we will continue to have our same capital allocation policy, where were going to invest first in the business.
Certainly as we've demonstrated in the second quarter, if there are attractive returns.
Repurchasing more stock, we will do that and we just take a look at where those returns are and could potentially opportunistically take advantage of that but.
But our capital allocation priorities remain the same in terms of investing in the business first followed by share repurchases and dividends.
Okay I'll pass to others. Thank you.
Thank you we'll take our next question from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.
Okay.
Thank you good morning, happy new year everybody.
Andrew Good morning, Alright.
I missed a little bit in the prepared remarks, so I apologize if some of this was covered but.
It's good to see that some of the more you know the efforts around trying to make the pricing model around transportation and freight more dynamic and to see some of that coming through.
A big effort.
Over the last quarter or two I think you had mentioned at one point that maybe over time that you could start to make some of these.
These multi year contracts with larger customers as they reprice or come up for renewal a little bit more dynamic as well when you're building in.
Some some aspects that if there is such significant volatility going forward that you'd be able to sort of maybe account for that a little bit more effectively and quickly than maybe the contracts allowed for this.
This past go around.
And I know you don't operate in a vacuum. So this is not something that you would necessarily be able to do if others didn't.
I don't know how many of these contracts that these larger contracts have yet really sort of repriced in any big way or come up for renewal I know more of that I think happens more later in the spring, but is there any evidence yet that any of that has happened or could happen or are you at least certain having maybe some of those discussions or is the.
The environment right now just having those sorts of discussions just a lot tougher to have yet another three months.
Curious about.
Yeah, Andrew that's a great question and you know it's early on.
And the contract cycle this year, we get more into it.
Typically mid late spring through summer Ah, obviously internally, we're having the conversations on with AR.
With the inflation, we've experienced which.
It's been a long time that that business have experienced this type of input cost increases and.
Potentially raw increases that's something where we're talking about and you know we're gonna certainly.
Adjust to our customers, but it's something that that they're experiencing too and I think it's prudent for all of us to sit out and make sure when we get an environment like this that we have the proper.
No agreements on how.
To navigate through this a lot better.
That's helpful and then one last one would be.
Think after the first quarter.
You know I think you were.
We're pretty hopeful and feel pretty confident that that margin performance in fiscal <unk>, hopefully would kind of represent sort of a bottom. If you will and you can start to make some sequential.
Progress moving forward through the year, albeit maybe not not totally in a linear fashion.
It came through right in a bigger way than most expected in this fiscal second quarter.
And if you covered this already I'm sorry.
The margin would you be able to say that the margin structure of this quarter. Similarly, maybe represents a base from which you can sequentially improve.
Improved too.
Move forward or is it.
I wouldn't necessarily expect that in a lot of it depends on some of the three factors Bernadette that you just mentioned, which would determine where are you falling for the for the full year in terms of that 18% to 20% range.
Yeah, No great question Andrew.
We talked a bit about in the prepared remarks that we do expect to see margins sequentially increased in the third quarter, and then just seasonally they'll come down a bit in the fourth quarter, but.
The pattern that we're expecting to see in the last half of the year.
Great. Thanks, so much.
Beth.
Thank you that does conclude today's question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any additional or closing remarks.
Thanks for everybody for joining us today, if you would like to schedule a follow up call of course. Please send me an email we can schedule. One then.
And then that happy new year and look forward to speaking later thank you.
Thank you that does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect.
Okay.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Yeah.
[music].
Sure.
Yeah.
[music].