Q4 2021 Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC Earnings Call

February 16, 2022

These comments should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in today's release as well as the detailed cautionary statements found in reports filed with the U K U S stocks just financial authorities a copy of this information is available on our website at Www Dot Coca Cola AP Dot com.

<unk> remarks will be made by Damian and Nik and accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions.

Unless otherwise stated metrics presented today will be on a comparable and FX neutral basis throughout they will also be presented on a pro forma basis, thus, reflecting the results of CCP and Australia and Pacific in Indonesian business unit API is if the Coca Cola Amatil transaction had occurred at the beginning of this year rather than in May when the acquisition completed.

Following the call a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website I will now turn the call over to our CEO Damian.

Yeah.

Thank you Sarah and many thanks to everyone joining us today so.

So first I would like to begin with a few of our key messages I'd like to start by thanking all of our highly engaged colleagues at TCP.

Their continued hard work and commitment to our business.

Most importantly to our customers and to each other as we continue to navigate through the effects of COVID-19.

2020, what wasn't even an extraordinary year for CCP.

Solid top line recovery.

The largest FMC G by the greater.

Value share gains.

Operating margin expansion.

And the remarkable free cash flow generation speak towards strong performance in 2021.

Our results also reflect the successful integration of Coca Cola Amatil.

That's fantastic business acquisition at the right time.

I am basing our dividend on the large business. We're very pleased we paid our largest ever dividend in 2021.

So we are well placed as we look to 2022 and beyond.

In the near term, we expect to see refer to volume and mix recovery, whilst managing our key levers of pricing promotional spend and on driving inefficiencies with the aim of mitigating inflationary pressures on protecting our margins.

Alright, but CCP is to be smart unsustainable.

Through our people centric data driven digitally enabled approach disciplined.

Disciplined investment in these areas as well as in our portfolio will support our long term growth ambitions.

All supported by an even stronger relationship with the Coca Cola company and all of our other valued brand partners.

<unk>, we have a simple, but vital purpose to refresh Europe now API.

Critically to make a difference for all our communities and our stakeholders.

Well, we have a simple focus around great people, great service and great beverages, all of them sustainably for a better shared future.

So now I'd like to touch on each of these areas as we look back on 2021.

As you know the wellbeing and safety of our colleagues is our number one priority.

<unk>, we continue to break down barriers to inclusion.

Our colleagues celebrated pride black history month, and international disability day across many of our sites. In fact, we were named as one of the GBS most admired companies and accolade acknowledging our DNI credentials.

In New Zealand, we were thrilled to be named employer of choice. The only company to receive the Gold award and three consecutive years in France. We were recognized by the top employers Institute and across <unk>. We were recognized as a great place to work in our first global engagement and culture survey.

Great service has always been a critical element for our customer growth story and engagement.

Supporting our customers through the reopening of <unk> has been a key priority.

New Zealand, where Crown Candler Cup champions, the annual Global Coca Cola system Butler competition.

And despite the ongoing challenges, we maintained high levels of customer service and behind Us and continue to invest in capacity to support our growth.

Our crucial revenue growth management initiatives.

This includes a placing around 130000 cold drink equipment units, increasing our cutting capacity and efficiency and accelerating our in sourcing plans.

Our focused and creative Euro football Halloween and Christmas activation <unk>.

Great excitement for our customers our colleagues and their consumers.

And on digital.

We hit record revenues would be to be platform.

Several new platforms via our ventures arm.

Yeah.

We were also extremely privileged to make move and sell the best beverages in the world.

Both Coca Cola zero sugar amongst our continues to outperform across all of our markets.

Our new taste, new look a new campaign for Coca Cola Zero Sugar in Europe , and Australia has been a great success with full year value share gains of 80.

Basis points in Europe , and 260 basis points in Australia.

What's the factor created great excitement for the brand with value share up 70 basis points.

Amongst renovations have supported impressive growth driven by solid distribution and innovation.

Overall versus 2019, we've delivered value share gains of nearly 200 basis points.

Our energy portfolio volume has grown by a really impressive 36%.

We are very excited about Costa coffee, we are readily expanding this great brand outside of Great Britain on top of Chico's continues to be an exciting opportunity now launched in six of our European markets already with the number two baidu position.

Now to sustainability, which remains a huge priority for all of us at <unk> and.

In 2020, we committed too ambitiously, reducing our absolute greenhouse gas emissions across our entire value chain by 2030.

A target that is embedded in our long term incentive plans.

With the aim to reach net zero emissions by 2040.

We achieved carbon neutral status of two of our manufacturing sites.

Of course, we are working closely with our suppliers to further reduce their emissions.

We continued to challenge our commitments bringing them.

Bringing them forward where possible.

Evidenced by us achieving our 50% recycled P C commitment a full two years early.

In Australia, and Indonesia, we are investing in new pizza recycling facility.

These collaborations are a step forward towards creating a circular economy for P. T O will contribute further accelerating our journey towards the ultimate goal of using 100% recycled.

Renewable plastic.

Now turning to our performance highlights we continue to win with our customers haven't created more absolute value sales growth compared to any of our peers.

The RTD category continues to be robust.

Growing in value terms by approximately 3% in Europe .

And over 10% and API.

We have grown our value share both online and in store and double their in store growth and back to 2019 and.

And critically in sparkling we grew both volume and value share last year.

So a very solid top line performance the four 5% increase in comparable volume, obviously reflects the reopening of away from home.

Increase consumer mobility, given the easing of restrictions.

The soft prior year comparable.

I am, particularly pleased that our continued focus on revenue growth management has driven growth in revenue per case above pre pandemic levels.

A really impressive result, given the mixed headwinds we have continued to face.

We are moving at pace to accelerate their digital transformation, which I'll come back to shortly.

We remain focused on efficiency and are on track to deliver the programs in combination benefits that we shared with you last year.

And we remain committed to.

Not returning to our pre pandemic cost base.

And as I mentioned earlier.

I'm very pleased that the integration of API.

Very well advanced.

In the digital space.

Our transformation journey continues.

And online grocery we continue to see share gains as I've mentioned.

<unk> portal My C. C. P dot com had a record of delivering $1 1 billion euros in revenue.

Round, 20% of our away from home business.

Our direct to consumer platform you Coca Cola.

Celebrated its first birthday, extending its personalized comes the Christmas.

Onetime state.

Start stop launched an online marketplace in GB.

Why be a b to b ecosystem platform in Portugal in partnership with the Coca Cola Company as we continue to explore progress new models that make it easier for our customers to do business with us.

We are delivering efficiencies in supply chain, and we are making it easier for our colleagues to work flexibly.

Inefficiently with many digital tools.

So a great year of progress with a lot more to come and on that note I'd now like to hand over to Nick to talk in more detail to the financial results over to you Nick.

Thank you Damian and thank you all for joining US today, let me start by walking you through with our financial summary.

We delivered total revenue of $14 8 billion euros and increase of seven 5% on a full year pro forma comparable basis.

Our Cogs per unit case increased by one 5% and NGL with typically around 85% of our total Cogs is variable.

This includes our concentrate purchases and finished goods, which have naturally increased in line with our incidence model.

Electing the improvement in revenue per unit case.

Commodities have been adverse driven by higher aluminum prices.

Prices, but remember we went into the with more solid hedge coverage.

And finally, approximately 15% relates to manufacturing and DNA, both of which are largely fixed as expected. We saw a positive impact from the favorable recovery of fixed manufacturing costs given higher volumes.

We delivered operating profit of $1 9 billion euros up 23.5%, reflecting our solid topline growth.

Benefits of ongoing efficiency programs and our efforts on managing discretionary spend.

On a comparable basis accounting for the timing of the API acquisition, we delivered operating profit of $1 8 billion euros up 46%.

We're pleased that both our revenues and pro forma operating margins in the second half of the approach the pro forma second half performance metrics of 2019.

This not only demonstrates the resilience of our business, but also puts us in a solid position as we enter 2022.

Our comparable effective tax rate declined to just under 21% from 24% last year.

The reduction is driven by a reassessment of our uncertain tax positions and release of tax reserves that are no longer required.

As I referred to at the half year, we indicated our future expectation of an upward move on our effective tax rate.

Given mainly by anticipated increases in corporate income tax rates.

I'll touch on this in a bit more detail shortly.

Our performance resulted in a comparable diluted earnings per share of two euros in 83 cents accounting for the timing of the API acquisition up 54, 5%.

Free cash flow generation continues to be a core priority and once again, we delivered an impressive performance of approximately $1 4 billion euros and I will share more details on that in a few moments.

And finally on shareholder returns, we paid a full year dividend of one euro and 40 cents a share in December maintaining our dividend payout ratio of circa 50% in line with our policy.

In absolute terms. This is the largest dividend we have paid reflecting the earnings defined large business, but also importantly, our cause.

<unk> and being able to continue to navigate our business effectively.

Now if you move to revenue highlights where I will focus on the full year given that Q4 drivers are quite similar.

The revenue increase was driven by both an increase in volume as David referred to earlier and importantly, our revenue per unit case growth.

Revenue per unit case grew by 3% versus 2020, reflecting positive pack and channel mix. Following the reopening in the away from home channel positive brand mix and favorable underlying rate increases.

And encouragingly up one 5% versus 2019.

Solid trading in the home channel continued benefiting from increased at home occasion, as well as continued growth in online grocery with volumes up 2% versus 2019.

Revenue by segment is also referred to here you can see more detailed commentary by geography in the release, but at the headline level fully our performance has been similar across Europe , and API with Great Britain, and New Zealand being the standouts with revenues ahead of 2019.

Now moving to our efficiency program as a reminder, we announced 200 to 225 million euros of efficiency savings in Europe , and 145 million Aussie dollars and 19 million euros for API.

We also communicated combination benefits of 60 to 80 million euros weighted towards 2022 and beyond.

These pre admissions to see savings in combination benefits equate to 350 to 395 million euros in total and we remain on track.

In line with the indicative dates on the slide we have so far delivered approximately 65% of these commitments.

This includes the permanent savings from the 2020 mitigation programs in Europe , and API, such as less travel and meetings and more efficient trade marketing spend as well as the most structural efficiencies from Europe , 6% rate competitiveness and API is fighting fit programs.

These included structural head count changes across field sales central supply chain and support functions and the closure of three plants in Europe . During 2020 to address duplication increased efficiency and scale and simplify how we work.

As we move into 2022. The next wave of these programs will take effect. We will also start to unlock more of the combination benefits from areas such as procurement and supply chain.

These ongoing program along with our continuous efforts on discretionary spend optimization.

Helping us to protect profits and margins in the short term, while ensuring that we would be fit and competitive for the longer term now as we communicated last year, we committed to re basing our cost base versus pre pandemic levels and you can see that here as a percentage of revenue opex as low and now not only compared to last.

But more importantly, compared to 2019.

Going forward, we will continue to manage very tightly, but we do anticipate some volume related increases in opex given that roughly a third of our opex is variable in nature.

And as that recovery continued focused investment in <unk> will be needed to support that recovery and we are naturally seeing upward inflationary pressures in areas like labor and haulage.

So let me now turn to free cash flow in a bit more detail the hugely important metric for us.

Despite the challenging backdrop, we generated nearly $1 4 billion euros of free cash flow in 2021.

Based on full year 2022 boom, a consensus estimate for free cash flow.

Free cash flow yield equates to around 7%.

On this slide you can see the key components of the full year 2021 free cash flow and I'll call out a few items in particular.

As you might recall when the pandemic first hit our markets. We moved at speed to review all sources and uses of cash to preserve maximum flexibility.

As we said this time last year, we expected to maintain capex in 2021 at 2020 levels given the continued uncertainty.

Recognizing the importance of targeted investment and now including API since knee. We spent nearly 420 million euros, excluding leases on supply chain digital and other technologies as well as cold drink equipment.

And despite the backdrop, we delivered an impressive reported working capital inflow of 217 million euros in 2021, driven by Europe , taking our cumulative improvements to well over $1 billion since 2017.

Strong performance and importantly, more to come.

And that's where our leverage and balance sheet. As you know we entered this crisis from a position of strength, having deleverage quickly post merger driven by our strong free cash flow generation.

We ended 2019 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of two seven times in line with our target leverage range of two and half to three times.

Leverage peaked at approximately five times upon closing the <unk> transaction in May.

But given our strong focus on cash and working capital improvements. We are confident that we will return to our target leverage range by full year 2024, while remaining fully committed to a strong investment grade ratings.

As you will see here, we closed fully a 'twenty one at four three times net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

Our deleveraging will be through a combination of using the highest combined cash flows to fund now in large business and a continued strong focus on being disciplined around our investments and of course working capital improvements that I mentioned earlier.

There's not only more opportunity for driving working capital improvements in Europe that have having also align Apis annual incentives to Europe to incorporate free cash flow work is underway to apply the best practices to API as well.

So looking now to full year 2022, our guidance today reflects current market conditions, which do remain uncertain.

Thus the revenue from a volume perspective, although we saw a solid recovery in 2021 volumes do still remain below 2019 levels, mainly driven by our away from home channel performed.

So we expect to see continued momentum in this channel supporting volume and mix recovery.

<unk>.

Optimize our recommended pricing and work with our customers to optimize our range and pack architecture.

And we continue to leverage data analytics customer and consumer insights to drive smart RG <unk> initiatives to expand the category and continue to create value for our customers.

Given the inflationary backdrop pricing will need to take a bigger role in 2022 compared to previous years.

As you know we have been able to achieve price increases in previous years typically representing at some points at least half of our revenue per unit case growth across headline price and optimizing our promotional spend.

To date, we are executing our pricing strategies successfully across many of our markets.

For example, France, where the negotiation is currently ongoing.

This all translates into revenue growth guidance on a comparable and currency neutral basis of between six and 8% with about half coming from volume.

Other half coming from price and mix.

Not to Cogs chart, you've all seen before and the moving parts, which I spoke to earlier when referring to 2021 still very much intact as we look at 'twenty two.

So for 'twenty, two I don't think we're immune to the dynamic macro and uncertain inflationary environment as we have seen that today, we expect elevated commodity inflation, reflecting our latest hedging position of approximately 57% up from approximately 45% in October .

This is weighted meaning we are almost fully hedged for the first quarter about 60% for the second quarter with the remainder coverage in the second half.

So we will continue to closely monitor the appropriate trigger levels to lock in more of our unhedged exposures depending on market conditions.

We currently expect commodity inflation to be in the high single digit range for 2022.

This translates with other factors as I mentioned earlier to our latest view on Cogs per unit case for the full year.

An increase of around 5%.

Clearly this guidance is based on what we know today given the level of uncertainty we will continue to update you more as the year progresses.

Continuing with the remaining guidance on operating profit, we are guiding to a range of 6% to 9% growth versus 2021, again on a comparable and currency neutral basis.

This will be delivered through a combination of expected volume and mix recovery, while managing our key levers of pricing promotional and discretionary spend inefficiencies.

Given the uncertainty inflationary backdrop, we are not discounting a second round of pricing and further promotional spend optimization while of course, ensuring that we remain competitive in order to protect the health and affordability, but also our strong position within DNA RTD category.

And lastly, the effective comparable effective tax rate for full year 2022 would be 22% to 23%, which is based on enacted tax legislation and assumes no significant change in our assessment of uncertain tax positions at this stage.

We will of course continue to update you as the year progresses.

And then finally, a reminder, on our key objectives based on the medium term, which all remain very much intact. We.

We will continue to maintain a competitive and progressive dividend payout ratio at around 50%.

This year, we will revert to two interim dividend as was on a standard cadence pre the pandemic.

As detailed in the release, we're simplifying the mechanism across the two payments. The first will be calculated as 40% of the prior year full year dividend with a second being paid with restaurants to the current tier annualized total dividend payout ratio.

And with that I'm going to hand back to Damian Damian. Thank you Nick.

I just wanted to now touch on DM until transactions.

An exciting transaction that firmly underpins those medium term objectives.

Giving us even greater confidence in our revenue and operating growth ambitions.

Simply a great move at the right time.

Since closing the deal in May we've made excellent progress on the integration of API.

Our key talent in place, we are bringing our people systems and processes together to allow us to collaborate and operate as one.

We are already and continue to share learnings and best practices across all of our markets.

The investments and solutions that we've been making in our European It infrastructure are now being leveraged in scale at API.

And we are bringing excellent segment, the cello profitability analysis, and API back to Europe to identify further headroom for growth opportunities in our business.

Close to our Hearts, we are of course working on aligning our sustainability commitments across Cc EP and finally, and very importantly, we're already driving system value creation with the Coca Cola company to better align our portfolio and focus more on our core brands.

We continue to remain externally focused throughout this process as we know the success of this integration will be determined in the market with our customers.

So with that in mind, we recently reached an agreement with the Coca Cola company to transfer the ownership of our <unk> brands in Australia.

And Fiji subject overseas investments also office approval in New Zealand This will drive better alignment with our franchise partner to maximize value creation for our customers and for the system.

Alongside this we continue to progress our previously announced plans to exit beer and Apple cider in Australia.

From a timing perspective, we anticipate these changes will complete substantially by the end of the first half.

And any RTD to provide a sense of scale.

Five Australian brands.

Wait to roughly 13% of Australia in volume and a five museum brands about 9%, obviously the volume there will not be any impact to the associated volumes or revenues. However, they will transition to the broadly 50 50 internet space concentrate model.

This will equate to an approximate EBIT impact of 25.

Australian dollars per annum, so roughly half of that given the expected timing this year.

Will receive 275 million Australian dollars on completion.

And given the scale of our beer and cider portfolio in Australia. The overall impact to the API segment of these moves is relatively small.

These are however important changes to enable us to give greater focus on any RTD.

And our ready to drink alcohol on spirits business.

Indonesia is undoubtedly one of the most important opportunities for the Coca Cola company globally, we see a clear pathway to the long term transformation opportunity.

The key to unlocking this is having great people in place led by Jorge Our New General manager, who joined US from one of the Mexican Coca Cola bottlers beyond Jorge we have hoped so progressing well with a wider leadership team, including Trumpf Ferring talent from some of our European markets.

Pivotal to Indonesia success is to develop the sparkling category, it's where we have differentiation distinctiveness and a right to win.

Alongside this we will continue to build our solid foundations with with the ready to drink tea categories.

We need to simplify the business by focusing on the core supported by the appropriate pack and price architecture to drive consumer relevance and we also see opportunities to improve our route to market and supply chain capabilities to support our in market execution.

As Ramadan is only around the corner, we already have exciting plans in place. This is a key location of the calendar representing about a third of our annual spark in sales.

Great that our consumers enjoy drinks are drinks with their friends and family during this period.

Converting more of the seasonal penetration into year around performance has to be a clear opportunity for us we will share more on our plans in due course.

And finally talking of wider excitement we've got plenty to look forward to we will continue to invest in Coca Cola zero sugar with a great new gaming promotion and marketing campaign real thrilled real magic other examples across our portfolio extend two exciting new flavor variations mystery with our next what the front of the campaign.

The continued rollout of Costa two new markets as well as many new package packs.

For example in France, we are launching one refillable glass bottle across many of our core brands.

This move will simplify bottle management for our hearth customers on wholesalers, while reducing our carbon footprint.

So 2021 really wasn't extraordinary year.

And we are well placed for 2022 and beyond alongside the Coca Cola company on our other brand partners.

And as I started by tightening are engaged and committed colleagues I wish to win on the same note as we look to the future. Thank.

Thank you for your time today, Nick and I will now be happy to take your questions and I'll hand back to you operator. Thank you.

Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, we kindly request only one question per analyst.

She would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name.

If you wish to come to your request please press the husky.

Again, Please press star one if you wish to ask a question.

Please standby, while we compile the Q&A queue. So let me take a few moments.

And your first question comes from the line of Charlie Higgs from Redburn. Please ask your question.

Good morning, Damian Cope Youre well I've got a question on the pricing environment. I was just wondering if you could comment on what youre seeing across your markets, whether youre seeing branded competitors in private label behaving rationally.

Please could you just clarify the point on pricing in France. When you say the negotiations are still ongoing I think in previous years, we've had quite extended negotiations in France, and a bit of disruption.

If you could just clarify that point please.

Yes. Thank you John good morning.

I think what we're seeing is kind of what we talked about.

As we close the 'twenty one is that we're seeing certainly pricing.

Head of the kind of normal cadence that we've seen in previous years and I think that's.

Clearly on the back of the inflationary pressures that makeup line I suppose.

They're across.

All industries and all categories. So we are seeing higher than normal pricing coming into the market.

And what do you define that as rational or not but.

That's what we're seeing clearly from our perspective and I'll, let Nick talk about France. In particular, we are quite pleased with where we are coming into 'twenty two.

As we've called out before we are managing the challenges on inflation.

I think with a view both the protect 'twenty two but most importantly to protect our franchise for the mid to long term.

So I think we've got a lot of levers to play with the CCP I think we've built some really strong capability in <unk>. So.

So as we look at our.

Strategy. This year Youll see obviously above average pricing youll see more mix coming through particularly as away from home.

Continues to reopen across all of our markets and obviously, we're benefiting from volume coming back into our business.

The pandemic eases so.

We've probably got a few more tools to play with.

Obviously, we've got a very diverse channel mix compared to a lot of other FMC G who are really retail focus. So I think all of that plays out well for us at TCP and I'll just hand over to Nick now to just share a bit more color on France.

Hey, Charlie.

I think as we've continued to say we've created a lot of value for all our retail customers.

Since our formation back in 2016 as European and as we continue in Europe Pacific.

Which includes France as well, so and I think quite honestly, we're very focused on making sure that continues so.

In France, the legal deadline.

The customer negotiations is the first of March March so nothing new there.

Yes, Youre right, we havent counted disruptions in France, and other markets in the past, but I think our teams continue to have very production productive.

Discussions with the retailers. So I think we look forward to a positive outcome I think France has just been one of the more challenging markets from a pricing perspective.

But.

With today's reality of really exceptional inflationary pressures I don't think Francis immune so I don't think its an option to really hold.

Headline price.

I think our brand equities are strong so our consumer.

Kind of acceptance should be there and thats, what our retailers and us should be focused in on in terms of that joint value creation going forward as well.

Perfect. Thank you.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Simon Hales from Citi. Please ask your question.

Hi, David.

Im just.

Just sort of.

Further on your hedging position on coax between two a little bit more than perhaps where you own some of the specific raw materials I know you've said in the past.

Perhaps where you're hedged and relates to things like our opinion.

The way you all know on that.

To clarify we grew well in terms of the 5% Coke's per case expectation that you've got to assume that is based on current spot prices just holding from here on the unhedged cost.

Yeah, Hey, great Great question, Simon So I think if you look as I said, our average hedge coverage is just under 60%.

And over 90.

For Q1 and about 60 for Q2.

So.

A much better position for.

One when you look across the commodities again, if you looked at.

Again, where we're seeing the most volatility which is around Ali we're probably in those same ratios for Q1 and Q2. So clearly second half more open as we continue to believe there should be some triggers that look at that price coming down.

When you asked the question around that 5% that 5% would normally assume months.

Getting to about that.

80% hedge level that we would normally go into the year at right. So if you remember policy typically we try and go in and are currently at 80% and typically keep about 20% open as we go through.

That's what that would be based on so if you actually went to 100% covering its spot which is not normally what we would do you'd see a slightly higher impact, but we'll update you as we go through the year on that.

Got it very clear thanks, Nick.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of.

Ryan from Jpmorgan. Please ask your question.

Okay.

Good afternoon, Daniel Thanks for the question.

<unk>.

Just in terms of your free cash generation for 2021, as we think around 2022 could you give us a sense of the bridge, particularly with regards to Capex and working capital are you still confident of delivering.

This 125 billion free cash for 2022 and beyond.

Yeah, well listen.

I think hunter.

And as you've probably seen her for the last several years, we've had a very strong focus on free cash flow and you've seen our delivery at the numbers and I think 2021 was no exception so.

Midterm objective of at least the $1 25 billion as a flaw still remains very much intact I would say to you. If you look at 2022 I think the key drivers that would be clearly a positive impact from EBITDA growth.

<unk>.

On the top line.

And then you've got obviously.

<unk>.

Investments in Capex, I think Damian life continued to stay very focused and disciplined around that clearly.

That will be an area that we will continue to one invest in for growth.

But then we will also continue to see working capital improvements coming through so if I actually look at it yes that flow of the $1. Two 5 billion is there, but there is no reason why we actually wouldn't be growing relative to our 2021 delivery as well.

Obviously as we go through the year, we'll provide more updates on that.

And just in terms of just a follow up in terms of the capex requirements.

Requirements I think you've mentioned during the year that you had some supply chain issues with amongst our energy.

In Q or their groceries just 11%.

Deliveries for the year is that most of our energy.

As we look to in source those capex months.

Absolutely. So we're very focused with both our supply chain team and with our partners at monster to make the right investments to be able to really support a lot more.

In house manufacturing to support that growth that's coming so that's that's probably a multi year plan.

That's very much baked into how we think about 2022 in particular.

No.

Guidance range typically have that set the 4% to 5% of Capex of MSR still stays very much intact, and we'll manage that tightly.

Thank you very much.

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Please ask your question.

After payment of the neck.

Just a question on the revenue guidance of six to eight which you hopefully have split roughly three to four volume, 3% full price. If you unpick that first of all the volume side.

I guess, what we've seen is the home channel has been incredibly resilient despite the reopening.

In the away from home still 16% down from pre pandemic levels.

If you think about 2022 being another year of.

Pretty decent recovery why shouldn't we see growth closer to the four 5%.

Delivered this year on the volume side and then on the revenue per case plus mix side, you've just delivered five and a half I think in Q4, which seems more pack mix and primary optimization oriented rather than headline pricing why shouldn't we see more than 3% to 4% as we go into 2022, especially at some of the pricing gets realized.

Thanks, Ed.

Good question.

As always.

Clearly.

As we look at that that guidance, we've taken a view that we see.

Recovery coming in away from home.

Still some degree of hesitation.

Hurricane in particular.

We're taking a view also around summer tourism still a bit away in terms of.

What the behavior of consumers is really going to be so we've kind of reflected that when we looked at our our volume Youre right I think what we're seeing is.

Our solid performance in retail that's continued.

Solid performance in online.

'twenty two.

Moves forward, we are seeing good recovery, particularly in northern Europe as restrictions kind of close out in markets like Belgium, The Netherlands. If you look at our <unk> numbers in Q4, and we don't think they stand out and I think GB.

Those living in the U K no.

The restrictions came down earlier, there its kind of given a pathway for auto markets in Europe , what we can expect.

That's what we're seeing in Q1 so.

We'll obviously monitor that as we go through the year and update.

On the price mix.

Again, we're taking a.

Our view on really our headline pricing will be ahead of previous years for sure in 'twenty two.

There will be a mixed benefit but again it goes back to have quick we see hurricane away from home getting back to pre pandemic levels, we havent seen a full year 22, yet.

And thats reflected in those assumptions.

That's how we're looking at it.

Yeah.

Got it I appreciate it's still early on the type of thing.

Okay.

Your next question comes from the line of Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please ask your question.

Great. Thanks, good morning.

I actually wanted to follow up on that point on <unk> recovery.

Supply I guess.

Assuming that <unk> is still.

Not yet at 2019 levels this year.

How would you maybe break that down between.

Outlet openings or outlet closures I guess, maybe another way to say it.

Versus foot traffic.

My thought had been that you've been gaining share within a record by some of your efforts with customers.

Our enhanced data and service capabilities.

So I'm just I'm surprised.

To gauge how conservative it may or may not need to be thinking about correct that it's still subdued versus 2019.

It's very strategic in that you didn't make one I'll turn it off.

Yes, Thanks Laura.

Certainly extremely well positioned for the recovery in America, and we've had some.

Nice customer wins actually throughout the threat.

'twenty, one so I think youre absolutely spot on that.

In a good position from a share perspective.

Going into 'twenty two.

What we're seeing.

From Australia, New Zealand right across to Europe is that.

The outlet re openings.

Our stronger than we originally anticipated so I think.

Obviously differs by market, but we're seeing a lot of outlets reopen.

In some markets you might have single digit closures that they just haven't come back for a variety of reasons.

So what we are seeing is footfall being the biggest challenge so, particularly in cities no surprised with.

We're still in most of our markets in Europe , and Australia, New Zealand.

Not quite work from home, but come back to the office, but it's obviously quite slow so.

So we are seeing particularly in the bigger cities outlets reopening footfall a bit lower than pre pandemic levels and I think as we go through the year.

I think a lot of companies are now talking about being more proactive about getting our people back to the office.

Three days, a week and that would certainly bring back.

To the city center is a lot more life and energy, but that will take a bit of time and I suppose that's why we're probably slightly conservative because that journey is starting now.

Certainly the UK is leading and we see auto markets following but obviously as we get through the first half of 'twenty. Two we'll have a better line of sight in the second half of the year in terms of where will that haruka away from home footfall land.

I suppose from that perspective.

Taking a slightly conservative view, but we can update you as we go through the first half of the year.

Okay great.

Then I was just curious.

On the supply constraints that you called out in in Australia.

Anything more specific you could share on that front and in particular package sizes and do you think about some of the strategic imperatives, you've got in that market in terms of pursuing pack.

Package diversity.

Is.

Is supply going to be an impediment to that this year or is there a progress.

On that front to help them to the outlook.

No I mean.

Australian business had a great great year last year I mean, if you look at the full year.

Peter and the team have done on supply.

Arctic job and certainly that business comes into 'twenty, two and a lot of momentum.

One of the challenges were driven by the success actually so primarily in Q4 across all categories in Australia. There was some practical issues around shortages pilots believe it or not.

Logistics.

But they were very short term lowering them so.

And we've I think.

When I look at what the team did I think we navigated those challenges a lot better.

Some of our competitors in the peer companies.

But that was an industry wide challenge in Australia that we've we've now.

Got through and obviously, that's peak season right its somewhere down there so that added to that kind of bottleneck.

It wasn't that material in our business and certainly not something that we will see in 'twenty two.

Okay, Great and then final thing if I can squeeze it in just on the pricing price mix outlook.

Just want to clarify thank you said.

The guidance does not assume second rounds of pricing.

And I was curious if France pricing is in the guidance at all.

Or not yet.

So.

Current assumptions that we've laid out does not include a second round of pricing, but we have not discounted that or put that on the backburner, yet we'll continue to evaluate the need for that.

Particularly also as we continue to think about optimizing our.

From a spend which I think we've managed that leave us quite well.

During 'twenty, one as well.

France, obviously in terms of what we're planning as I discussed earlier is in our numbers.

And as I said, we expect that we want to continue driving a joint value creation focus with retailers in France.

Going forward as well so.

In the current year.

And just on that Laurence.

Like every company in this environment were doing a lot of scenario planning.

With or without <unk>.

<unk> looking at us.

Second price increases where and when could they come.

So we've been going through that really since last year as we look into the some of the deflationary headwinds. So we'll continue to model that.

What obviously, we manage the.

The business.

It's a great category its resilient category.

We want to make sure that we keep our consumers with us as well.

So we'll take we'll take that view as we go through the year.

And we are fortunate as Nick called out that we have quite a.

Sizable amount of promotional investment that we can look at before we get to the second price increase so we look at both of those.

But I would say with the with a pragmatic view on the health of the business and the health of the category and our momentum so more to come on that as we as we go through the year.

Yeah, Okay that sounds great and add it all seems very very measured and balanced in a volatile environment. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Olson.

Hudson selling from Evercore ISI. Please ask your question.

Great. Thank you very much and congratulations on navigating through a really tough environment.

So I'm wondering if just kind of building on some of the other questions around pricing.

And taking the other side of the equation can.

Can you talk a little bit about that.

The state of the consumer in a number of markets.

We read about really pretty punishing increases and the cost of fuel and home heating in the UK.

So I'd like to get a sense of what sort of.

Elasticities Youre thinking about.

Revenue management strategies that you may have now that you didn't have in the past.

To help recover.

The input costs, given what is happening with the consumer and maybe give us a little bit of a sense of what wage growth looks like in your in your key markets. Thank you.

Thanks Robert.

I think a year like this.

And certainly a year, where consumers and customers will remember how we treat them.

Think thats the right mindset to have and I think we've got a <unk>.

Taking into account that a lot of our consumers.

Our suffering from.

Inflation pressures across a range of different <unk>.

<unk>, but also <unk>.

Essentials like as you said fuel energy.

So we're very mindful that we want to keep our consumers with us for the long term.

And I think we're looking that we've created a number of.

Opportunities through our <unk> strategies to navigate our cost pressures without penalizing our consumers. So I think that's critical for our customers.

And I think that's why we've laid out a combination of pricing for sure mix and volume.

Im kind of wrapping around that some smart or GM strategies around promo spend in pack sizes et cetera. So we want to make sure that we keep our consumer franchise.

Healthy and growing and it's been growing through the pandemic, particularly in the whole market.

And it's been growing for a number of years and I think that's what makes this business great at the region and category, but you've got to make sure.

As we are with the Coke company that we maintain affordability in the category for our consumers.

And relevance and that's our main priority, while being very conscious of protecting our P&L. So.

We will manage both of those dynamics clearly.

Through 'twenty two.

We are very mindful of that.

Just about the price of Coke in Europe , there's a lot of other things that are going up under a central right. So I think we've got to be and we are very mindful of being pragmatic around our pricing strategy and keeping our consumer franchise.

It's pretty much standard across all the markets Robert I mean, we see it.

Slight variance of above inflationary pressure, particularly driven by energy.

Fuel is pretty consistent across all of our businesses. We are seeing the category continued to perform it's a great category great.

'twenty one we gained share in a growing category, we see it growing again this year.

And I suppose what hurt us in the 2020 one.

Particularly the buffer with the biggest share in away from home.

Across the system.

Thats something that will come back in 2022, and it's both that helps us on the mix side as we as we kind of look at that balance between price mix and volume.

So that's that's how we're looking at I suppose I'd characterize that it's a year to take care of our consumers and our customers, but also take care of our P&L.

That's what we're focused on and just maybe can you talk a little bit about what's going on with the brands and private label and whether you guys are generally the premium player in all your markets, whether you feel that you are better positioned today.

To deal with any kind of customer down trading than maybe you were in the past.

Yes, I mean, obviously the.

The inflationary pressures.

Applied to private label.

To all of our competitors so.

Obviously, we're keeping a close eye as we always do.

What's happening in the market on pricing across all the ranges from.

<unk> brand right the way through the private label. So we do anticipate.

In line with the overall pressures that they will flow through the private label as well so.

And I think that.

That maintains I suppose a premium but again at a level that we believe our brands observe on the consumers will support and I think like in any year. If we saw a drifting we would take actions to look at that but we haven't seen that yes.

But it's early in the year.

We will see as these cost pressures come through whats happening, but overall we are seeing.

Prices going up across all of our markets and we that's what we're seeing from private label too.

Other competitors.

But let's let's say, but that's what we're seeing at the moment.

Terrific. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Mitch <unk> from Deutsche Bank. Please ask your question.

Hi, Joe Hi, Nick.

My question is.

And GP in New Zealand you have said that revenue is already tracking ahead.

2019 can you maybe comment on what's driving your success in those two markets.

Given both will probably have still in away from home headwind would you expect to build on that and those two markets in 'twenty two.

As away from home comes back.

There are an opportunity to take what you've done in those markets successfully and move into some of your other geographies. Thanks. Thanks.

Thanks, Nick.

It sounds like you've been listening into one of my management meetings.

And to put New Zealand in GB out there I mean, Chris and the team in New Zealand.

I have done a phenomenal job over multiple years, I mean, I think thats a business that we've talked about the amatil transaction.

We'll be super successful if it helps us transform Europe , and I think putting new Zealand out there as a benchmark is something that we're doing them.

New Zealand has been.

Obviously in lockdown from a visitors perspective.

It had a very good year last year overall in terms of the domestic business.

The team down there did a good job managing reopening away from home and retail and that brought the business back ahead of 2019.

I think GB is another success and I think that.

The team in GB.

We did very well in retail and <unk>.

Online.

We did well with our big customers and I think Thats certainly supported.

And then on top of that we've seen in GB as I said lead the way in Europe in terms of reopening.

And.

As GB goes we see auto markets following to be honest, so maybe a quarter behind because they were a quarter later.

Lifting restrictions.

But obviously box was a bit more bullish.

We benefited from that in the second half of last year, you can see that in our numbers and particularly in Q4. So we would expect other markets to follow suit as we go through 'twenty, two we haven't seen restrictions being lifted in Belgium, the Netherlands recently.

We see that in our sales already.

We see Germany coming.

Out of some restrictions.

And then obviously as we get into Easter key trading periods.

We've got Ramadan coming open Indonesia, So we're well set for that and obviously, that's our biggest selling periods of the year. So.

So, yes, definitely New Zealand GB or the stand out.

Some of the dynamics that have driven our performance our rapid but in other markets I'm curious if that's what we're looking to accelerate.

Yes, Mitch just to give you some numbers if you look at it from an angle of 'twenty, one performance relative to 19.

Away from home was down about mid teens right.

As Damian said, if you look at both GB and.

Specific JV was down about 4% relative to that mid teens and then.

The Pacific, including New Zealand was down about 1%. So clearly a great dynamic of what is to come depending on the speed of that reopening and recovery.

So.

Clearly that should have a positive impact as that happens, but we'll update you as David rightly said as the progresses and we see how that moves.

That's really helpful. Thank you I do have one unrelated follow up if that's okay, which is I think you gave the percentage of cost savings you've achieved in 'twenty. One are you.

We're able to enrolment on what percentage you would have baked into the 6% to 9% operating profit guidance for 'twenty two.

I knew you were going to add to that.

So yes, we achieved just under 65% to date and I would say, we're probably looking at being able to achieve somewhere between 15% to 18%.

In 2022, which is baked in.

We're going to update you again through.

For the year.

Sure.

Your next question comes from the line of sung <unk> or <unk> from Credit Suisse. Please ask your question.

Hey, Damian.

Just a follow up on the hedging comment Nick I think you said in your remarks, one of the questions that you think that could be.

Potentially a more favorable window.

To lock in.

Great. The hedging profile can you just talk a little bit about what those.

I guess it might be.

And is the potential second price increase entirely conditional on.

The eschar.

Escalation in input costs.

Or is there something else that potentially strikes that thanks.

Well. Thank you maybe I'll just take the second one and then back to making the hedging.

Yes, I think the second price increase is something that we'll review based on.

The cost pressures that we see coming through the year I think that would be the primary trigger for that so as we as we looked at our hedging position.

As we look out towards the end of the year I mean, thats, primarily what would trigger that action.

We've got great momentum.

We're in a great place for our customers with a great brand plans with the Coke company with Monster. So clearly that's a priority as we look at Q1 Q2.

But we keep an eye on that cost pressure.

Mandates that we need to go back for a second price increase we always have that option.

Okay and back to your question on hedging as I said, we're well positioned.

Q1, probably.

Good into Q2, but we've set.

Triggers based on it.

Intelligence from our banking partners from CPG in terms of what those trends could be for the second half of the year.

We've put in those triggers in terms of orders. So that we know they can be fulfilled quickly if we move in that direction.

We will continue to monitor that right to be able to lock in at favorable prices.

Versus locking in at current spot.

Today.

Understood.

Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Alright, Thank you hi, Damian and Nik.

And maybe a couple of follow up questions to some previous ones I guess.

First curious to hear if you guys see upside on your top line either from stronger than expected volume and price mix as the year progresses.

Would you let this broadly flow through to your bottom line or would you plan to reinvest any.

So upside into your business and then maybe a quick one for you Nick on Cogs guidance and visibility we've touched on this a lot but I.

Its interesting you Didnt give a range, which does suggest your visibility at this point must be pretty good. Although it is quite early in the year. So I guess my.

I just wanted to understand that point and then maybe how conservative your guide on Cod, Michael Thank you.

US Conservative I don't think Thats the case.

So.

On your first.

Comment.

We're.

Fully.

Let's put it that way as we look from the capital side is Nicole from a capacity technology and digital.

People. So we've got we've got a great investment time for 'twenty two.

So I don't really see the need for more coming in 2002, I mean, clearly we look as we go through the year.

What we look at 'twenty three.

But I think at the moment, we feel pretty good about our investment lineup, both with our brand partners with Kols and with Monster in particular.

From our perspective against the revenue guidance that we've given today so.

During the year, but.

That's something that we see happening in 2022 buildings.

So definitely dropped to the bottom at that top line continues to recover which we.

We remain very mindful of on the hedging question, Yes, I could have provided a range, but as I indicated.

When you're looking at it from an angle of where we're sitting today and where we would have typically gone in around that circa 80% coverage then we'd be at kind of that rate that top end of that 5% closer to 45 that we provided.

So clearly if spot prices do not abate and continue to be where they are today. Then you are seeing an impact for that.

720%, which could add probably somewhere between a half a point to 70 bps in terms of that guidance, but we will update you as we go along its probably too early to give you a clear indication on that.

Okay.

Helpful.

To the point that also SMG thats, probably something that would trigger what we need to do in terms of as we look at.

Promo spend optimization.

Pricing et cetera et cetera.

Definitely makes sense. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Wilmer from ABN <unk>. Please ask your question.

Good afternoon, everyone.

I was wondering if the prospects of a rising interest rates could have consequences for your bond refinancing strategy and agenda.

Especially in a scenario where interest rates reach a certain level.

That they may start to materially impact your EPS for example through.

Early refinancings of our strategy focused on different maturities et cetera. So I guess I'm wondering how should we look at your strategy.

Protect EPS from our bond refinancing perspective, thank you.

Yes, great question, Eric So.

We continue to assess various opportunities both from an angle of.

Fixed versus floating portfolio as well as opportunities that we see.

A <unk>.

Window to look at extending our maturity profile I think we're in a great position right now from an angle of.

Debt maturities, we actually don't have to go out to market really until at the earliest.

Mid to late 2023, and that also would be more around refinancing given the fact that we actually are looking to continue to deleverage and cash flows are strong so.

Both of those are very much on our agenda from an angle of is there an opportunity in the shorter term to move towards some floating as well as.

<unk>.

And the maturity, but I think right now as we look at that outlook.

I would actually say, you'll continue to see with the deleveraging and our current portfolio that interest line continuing to come down and actually help us on the EPS.

Got it.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Our last question for today comes from the line of Carlos Laboy from HSBC. Please ask your question.

Yes. Thank you.

Damian and Nik.

<unk>.

I'm going to take the hook.

I think Mike mentioned that.

Regarding revenue growth management and dealing with inflation you probably have a few more tools to play with.

I was hoping you could expand on that and.

It may be related to that question or maybe not.

But can you.

Link for Us revenue growth management two <unk>.

Youre viewing package evolution and ESG.

And the reason I'm asking is given coke's, new new global renewable targets.

How's your focus may be changing or evolving.

Regarding how you use a refillable package sets.

To supplement what Youre doing on revenue growth management.

Thanks Carlos.

Yes.

On revenue growth management broadly I think what you've seen in our numbers.

On a net revenue per case over over 19 gives us confidence that we serve.

In the right path in terms of leveraging a number of tools, but.

We've talked to before around pack size premium realization of some of our brands.

Better promo.

Analytics, so we can spend our promo investment smarter with our customers. So we're getting much better at this understanding.

What really works on promo what drives penetration share value for us and our customers. So all of those tools.

We will become even more relevant as we get into 'twenty two given some of the headwinds we have that we've talked about today. So I think we are well placed and it's evolving.

We're nowhere near where I think we will be by the end of 'twenty two into 'twenty three.

Supporting our business and we've seen that in the MSR per case.

So more to come on that.

We're also looking at the refillable opportunity when we have our refillable big.

Big part of our business is we still are already across a CDP.

So youre looking at the high teens. So when you look at the targets that the Coca Cola company laid out clearly.

We very much support that and we see it as an opportunity.

Obviously meet our ESG goals, particularly carbon reduction so it's going to play a big role in our portfolio to achieve that goal.

What we also see it as a way to create value. So I think as you know in a lot of markets.

Refillable is being used as an affordability strategy.

In Europe , it tends to be more premium and orca glass positioning. So it can also support your ESG annual net revenue goals and I think that's what we're looking at is.

How do we really play.

Refillable in that space and then also in Indonesia, clearly, we will look at it from an affordability perspective in Canada.

Drive more brand.

Relevance by getting to some price points potentially that consumers are happier to pay in Indonesia. So indeed Asia is probably a more traditional view of refillable.

Certainly Europe , we see a play a role in a more.

<unk>, let's put it that way.

Anything that we're exploring we're working with suppliers around refillable technology, I think one of the big benefits of putting a target I would like to Coca Cola Company did.

I think it will allow us to engage even more with suppliers on getting to what I call.

For two point Ole Refillable technology.

For those of a pain in the system of water in the industry, while the refillable technology Hasnt really moved on compared to the rest of the supply chain.

And I see that as a big opportunity and I think putting out that target gives suppliers confidence that we feel is going to be part of the system's future and should encourage them to work with us to develop better technology in that space, which over time will help the carbon footprint, but also should help margins. So.

A lot going on in that space Carlos.

Thank you very much.

Yeah.

Thank you I would now like to turn the conference back over to Damian Gammell for his closing remarks Damien. Please go ahead.

Thank you again big Thank you to everybody joining us.

This morning this afternoon.

Just to recap our really strong performance in 2021 and I just wanted to.

Reiterate.

My thanks to our customers, but also clarity to all of my colleagues at CCP for.

Terrific year, 'twenty, one and their ongoing commitment and passion for our business.

So that gives us a great platform to build off and we're very well placed for 2022.

As we've talked about today, we are dealing with the near term inflationary pressures, we've got lots of strategies and tools in place to allow us to to navigate that and the clarity. We will continue to update you as we go through 2022 funding.

Fundamentally it is a great category, it's a great business. It is.

Growing its resilience its creating a lot of value for our customers and for our shareholders and we see that continuing through 'twenty two.

Beyond unclear to really get the benefit of a stronger away from home business in 'twenty, two and we're really excited about that after the last couple of years.

It is all about our consumers and our customers. So we've got a really exciting portfolio of brown plans, particularly with the Coca Cola company amongst our so a lot of innovation a lot of excitement.

Coming through our business and clearly we will continue our journey to be a smarter Butler and the most sustainable Butler. So Nick laid out we'll continue to invest in our business.

It'd be focused around our people our digital journey.

Our brands and obviously, our sustainability agenda, which remains core to everything we do.

CCP. So thank you and again I look forward to talking to you later in 2022 and have a great day everybody. Thank you.

That concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating you may all disconnect.

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Q4 2021 Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC Earnings Call

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