Q4 2021 Otter Tail Corp Earnings Call

February 15, 2022

Good morning, and welcome to Otter tail Corporation's 2021 earnings Conference call today's call is being recorded.

<unk> and answer session. After the prepared remarks, I will now turn the call over to the company for their opening comments.

Good morning, everyone and welcome to our call. My name is Tyler increments, and I manage otter Tail's Investor Relations area.

Last night, we announced our Q4 and full year 2021 earnings results.

Our complete earnings release and slides accompanying this call are available on our website at otter tail Dot com.

A recording of the call will be available on our website later today.

With me on the call today are Chuck Macfarlane Otter tail corporations, President and CEO and Kevin <unk> Otter tail corporations, senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin I want to remind you that we will be making forward looking statements. During this call as noted on slide two these statements represent our current views and expectations of future events. They are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ from those presented today.

So please be advised about placing undue reliance on any of these statements are forward looking statements are described in more detail in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

We encourage you to review.

Otter tail corporations disclaims any duty to update or revise our forward looking statements due to new information future events developments or otherwise.

For opening remarks, I will now turn the call over to Otter tail Corporation's President and CEO , Mr. Chuck Macfarlane.

Thank you Tyler and good morning, everyone and welcome to our 2021 year end earnings call.

Thanks to the efforts of our employees Otter tail Corporation achieved record financial results in 2021.

Please refer to slide four as I begin my comments on our results.

We achieved earnings per share of $4 23, which is an increase of 80% over 2020.

The increase was led by our plastics segment, which had an outstanding year driven by continued strong PVC price pipe demand in PVC resin supply constraints.

Kevin will provide more detailed discussion of our financial performance in his comments, but a brief overview of 2021 is as follows.

Our electric segment increased earnings by $5 7 million or eight 5% over 2020.

This was primarily driven by rate base growth from our <unk> wind and a story of station projects.

Our manufacturing segment increased earnings by $6 1 million or 56% over 2020.

With <unk> earnings up four point.

$4 million and T O plastics up one seven.

This was mostly due to strong end markets for both <unk> and T O plastics as well as favorable scrap metal pricing at Ptv.

Our plastics segment had a record breaking year with earnings of $97 8 million, which is approximately 250% higher.

And then 2020.

This was driven.

By higher prices and improved operating results.

Resulting from unique market conditions.

These increased margins started with the unusual and infrequent impact, resulting from the extreme cold weather in February that caused resin suppliers to temporarily close petrochemical plants in the Gulf Coast region.

And it was exacerbated in the third quarter from disruptions caused by Hurricane Ida.

The first quarter of 2022 is expected to be strong as market conditions from the fourth quarter of 2021 continue in the 2022.

Now I'll share some of the highlights from last year.

Otter tail power filed its integrated resource plan in September .

The plan identifies key projects in the energy transition, which is underway at otter tail power.

The main request in the five year action plan includes the addition of fuel oil backup capability at our storage station natural gas plant.

The addition of 150 megawatts of solar generation in the 2025 time frame.

And the commencement of the process to withdraw from our 35% ownership in Coyote station.

By year end 2028.

After incorporating the request from the integrated resource plan, we now anticipate capital expenditures in our electric segment of nearly $1 billion over the next five years.

Which will result in a compounded annual growth rate in rate base of five 9% from the end of 2020 to the end of 2026 as shown on slide 17.

Otter tail powers Hoot Lake Solar project continues to move forward and is on scheduled to be completed in 2023.

The 49 megawatt solar project will be constructed on and near the retired Hoot Lake coal plant property.

Location of Hoot Lake Solar offers us a unique opportunity to utilize our existing hoot lake transmission rates substation and land.

Minnesota customers will be allocated 100% of the cost and benefits of the project.

<unk> has received renewable rider eligibility approval in Minnesota.

We continue to experience supply chain challenges and some inflationary cost facilities created with the project.

We have contracts in place for thin film panels, which will avoid the heightened supply chain risk related to alleged human.

Abuses in China.

The U S ban on goods from that region.

Our investment in who'd like solar and those identified in our integrated resource plan and other capital expenditures will allow us to improve our customers' experience.

Reduce operating and maintenance expenses reduce emissions and improve reliability.

As shown on slide seven we are targeting a carbon reduction emissions from our own generation resources, approximately 50% lower than 2005 levels by 2025 and 97% by 2050.

Otter tail power announced in the third quarter of 2021. The addition of a new load with a business focused on the delivery of high performance crypto mining and related infrastructure solutions.

This load start coming online during the first quarter of 2022 and plans to be fully operational in the second quarter of 2022.

Demand from the customers facility could approach 100 megawatts with a high load factor and the ability to be curtailed.

Otter tail power received a written order on its rate case in February important takeaways from the written order are the approved return on equity of 948% on a 52, 5% equity layer.

And our revenue would be kept decoupling mechanism as shown on slide 14.

Recognizing the economic impact to customers of the ongoing pandemic and with input from the Commission staff, we agreed to reduce our interim rate request by approximately half to $6 9 million or three 2%.

This was done in conjunction with approval of our annual depreciation filing which extended our wind asset lives from 25% to 35 years.

We expect final rates to be implemented by mid year 2022, with interim rates remaining in effect until that.

Now turning to our manufacturing segment.

<unk> our contract metal fabricator was challenged by labor and recruiting costs as we focused on hiring to meet customer demand.

During the year, we have made progress on hiring new employees after increasing starting wages.

Offshore premiums and hiring incentives <unk> year end employee count was at its highest level of all time.

We are focusing on training and increasing productivity of these new employees.

Steel prices peaked in the fourth quarter at historically high levels and prices have begun to moderate and lead times have improved.

Although steel prices have been high <unk> experienced increased customer demand driven by Oems improved sales and the desire to rebuild depleted inventories.

T O plastics had solid performance driven by strong horticulture end market sales offset by lower sales to contract market customers.

Culture sales backlog is at an all time high.

Our plastics segment continues to deliver extraordinary results, while managing through raw material supply challenges.

Demand for PVC pipe remains strong, causing sales prices to continue to rise above raw material price increases.

Which led to the.

Record fourth quarter earnings.

I would like to thank all of the Otter tail team members for their resiliency and continued commitment while navigating the economic swings and safety concerns presented with Covid.

Now I'll turn it over to Kevin to provide additional detail on our financial performance in 2021.

Thanks, Chuck and good morning, everyone.

Our 2021 operating revenues were 196 billion compared with $890 million in 2020.

This revenue growth occurred across all of our reporting segments.

Our 2021 earnings per share of $4 23.

Greece from our 2020 earnings per share of.

With $2 34.

These results were primarily driven by the unique market conditions, we experienced in our plastics segment during 2021.

However, it is important to note all of our operating segments contributed to our year over year earnings increase.

And our 2021 return on equity was 19, 2% on an equity ratio of 53, 7%.

Slide 27 provides an overview of our three year financial performance. These results are reflective of our strategy of having the electric manufacturing and plastics segments.

Our electric segment is a well run fully integrated electric utility with a growing rate base is expected to provide continued earnings growth with supportive regulatory environments and a demonstrated ability to successfully execute on large scale capital projects.

Our manufacturing and plastics segments provide additional earnings growth and are well positioned for the future.

The additional earnings and cash flows generated by the plastic segment in 2021.

Provide additional strength to our already strong credit metrics liquidity and capital structure.

2021 resulted in a record year of cash flows generated from operating activities.

$231 million of operating cash flows was generated in large part.

By increases in year over year, net income and depreciation expense.

As a part of this our accounts receivable increased $61 million.

And our inventories increased $54 million.

And we fully expect these working capital items will be converted to cash in 2022.

Contributing to another strong year of operating cash flows.

These operating cash flows and the liquidity available under our credit facilities.

Allow us to look at additional organic investment opportunities.

Specifically we.

We will be making a discretionary contribution of $20 million.

So our pension plan in February of 2022.

And as previously mentioned, we have acquired land in Phoenix adjacent to our biotech property.

That will allow us to execute on a potential facility expansion to improve plant operations.

Logistics and increase plant capacity.

The capital for this project is included in our five year capital expenditure plans.

Our five year financing plans call for issuance of long term debt to primarily support the electric segments rate base growth.

There is no need for any external equity in the financing plan.

The board of directors increased our 2022 indicated annual dividend rate of five 8% to $1 65 a share.

This increase reflects our strong 2021 financial performance and our 2022 outlook the company's strong balance sheet liquidity.

Cash generation profile, and our commitment to enhancing shareholder returns.

We expect future dividend increases to be in line with our long term earnings growth goal of 5% to 7% off our 2020 earnings per share of $2 34.

In 2022 will be the 84th year, we paid dividends on our common stock.

Please refer to slides 28, and 29% as I provide an overview of 2021 earnings by segment.

The electric segment net earnings increased $5 7 million or eight 5% over 2020.

The increase in earnings was primarily driven by rate base growth, resulting from the completion of the <unk> wind farm in the story at station.

Increased retail revenues from the interim rates related to our Minnesota rate case net of production tax credits.

And increases in transmission service revenues.

These items were offset by higher O&M costs related to increase in operating costs from placing mirror court historians station in service in 2021.

The increase in Big Stone plant maintenance costs as a result of our planned facility outage.

Increases in other O&M costs, such as transmission tariff costs insurance costs and higher vegetative maintenance costs.

Depreciation and amortization expense also increased due to recent capital additions.

Interest costs were higher due to higher levels of long term debt compared with the previous year.

And income taxes were favorably impacted mainly due to the production tax credits earned on mirror Court in 2021.

Net earnings for the manufacturing segment increased $6 $1 million over 2020.

This growth in earnings resulted from it.

Increased sales volumes of six 8% at DTD from improved end market demand across most markets served.

We also experienced an increase in operating revenues related to the increase in material costs during 2021.

These costs are passed through to our customers.

There were higher scrap metal prices and the continued throughout 2021, which contributed to a growth in operating revenues of $7 3 million.

This increase in operating revenues at <unk> were largely offset by lower gross profit margins.

This was a result of more labor related.

The time required for new employees to be trained.

This in turn caused lower productivity levels during the year.

Operating expenses expanded in 2021 to support our higher business volumes.

T O plastics also contributed to the growth in segment operating revenues and net income.

This was primarily due to improved product pricing and sales volumes.

These items also contributed to an increase in gross profit margins at T O plastics.

Plastics revenues and net earnings increased driven by higher sales prices.

Due to the combination of PVC resin supply constraints.

Which led to limited PVC pipe inventory and strong demand for PVC pipe products.

Resin supply in 2021 was negatively impacted during the year by production disruptions caused by the extreme weather events in the first and third quarters in the Gulf Coast region.

Pounds of pipe sold in 2021 increased one 7% from 2020.

As resin supply constraints limited our production.

Our corporate cost grew $1 1 million, primarily due to increased labor and benefit costs, including higher health insurance.

Costs related to our self funded health insurance plan.

As well as a half a million dollars year over year increase in the contribution commitment to otter tail Corporation's charitable foundation.

Moving onto our business outlook on slide 31.

This reflects an earnings per share range of $3 78 to $4 eight for.

For 2022.

This guidance equates to a return on equity range of 15, 3% to 16, 3%.

The guidance is reflective of an electric utility with a five 9% compounded annual growth rate in rate base off of 2021 over the next five years and supportive regulatory jurisdictions.

And strong levels of earnings in 2022 from our manufacturing and plastics segments.

The earnings contribution expected in 2022 is different from our anticipated, 70% electric 30% manufacturing plastics long term earnings mix.

We are expecting another strong financial performance year in our plastics segment.

This performance is expected to result in our manufacturing and plastics segment.

<unk>.

3% of 22022 earnings and a 47% contribution from the electric segment.

We are planning on capital expenditures of $182 million in 2022 compared to $172 million in 2021 and.

In our electric segment accounts for 82% of our planned 2022 expenditures.

Our strategic objectives to grow our business and achieve operational excellence continues to position us to achieve a 5% to 7% compounded annual growth rate in earnings per share using $2022 34 a share.

We expect our electric segment net income to increase 7% over 2021 based on the following items.

Year over year increase in rate base, along with increased load growth from new and existing commercial and industrial customers.

Our ending rate base in 2021 grew by 13, 7% to $1 6 billion.

Lower expected planned outage costs in 2022.

As the Big Stone plant outage in 2021 had higher costs than what is expected related to the planned Coyote plant outage in 2022.

The discount rate for our pension plan for 2022 is three 3% compared with the $2 78% in 2021.

For each 25 basis point increase in the discount rate pension expense decreased approximately $1 $3 million.

The assumed long term rate of return for 2020, 263% compared with the $6 five 1% in 2021.

Each 25 basis point decrease in this rate equates to approximately $900000 in increased pension expense.

There are lower expected contributions to the Otter tail power Company Foundation in 2022.

Lower interest expense as the $140 million notes issued in November of 2021.

Have a lower interest rate compared to the $140 million that was refinanced.

These items are partially offset by higher depreciation and property tax expense driven by the increased rate base.

Labor costs are expected to be higher in 2022 is open positions were filled in the first half of 2021 and are expected to be employed for all of 2022.

And continued increasing insurance costs related to the increase in insured values and increase in insurance rates due to competitive market conditions.

We expect net income from our manufacturing segment increased seven 6% compared with 2021.

This was based on an increase in sales at BTT driven by end market demand as our customers continue to build inventory to fill shortages created by simply its supply chain challenges.

And while we have been generally able to meet our customers on time delivery requirements.

Our customers have other supply chain challenges, which impacted our ability to consistently take our product in line with their production timelines.

Steel lead times have improved back to pre pandemic timeframes.

And steel costs remain elevated as mill prices and supply chain costs are expected to remain historically high during 2022.

These costs could put additional pressure on our profitability. If we are unable to pass cost increases on.

To our customers on a timely basis.

Scrap metal revenues are expected to be lower in 2022, given currently declining market prices for scrap metal.

And we continue to work on improving labor efficiencies in order to enhance our gross margins.

An increase in earnings from T. O plastics is driven in large part by a full year of increases in product prices that occurred throughout 2021 and improved manufacturing productivity.

Our backlog for the manufacturing segment is approximately $391 million for 2022.

Impaired with 204 million one year ago.

We expect 2022 net income from our plastics segments to decline from the record earnings year in 2021.

Even with the expected decline in earnings 2022 is expected to generate significant earnings and cash flows in this segment.

The first quarter of 2022 is expected to be strong as.

As market conditions from the fourth quarter of 2021 continue into 2022.

We then expect to see a return to more normal business conditions as raw material supply improves.

Causing sales prices resin prices and related spreads to decline.

Specific reasons for the expected year over year decline in net income.

Lower volume of pounds of pipe sold in 2022, driven by extremely low levels of finished good inventories to start the year.

PVC resin production is forecasted to be strong beginning in the first quarter, which is expected to put downward pressure on prices.

PVC demand has decreased globally, causing PVC supply to increase which is also expected to result in declining PVC resin prices.

And increases in freight costs due to the inflationary nature of the logistics environment across the country.

We.

Our corporate costs will be in line with 2021.

We are not planning for a contribution to our foundation in 2022.

This savings is largely offset by lower budgeted gains on our investments in 2022 than what was recognized in 2021.

Anticipated costs related to further expected safety measures related to COVID-19.

To be incurred in 2022.

We expect to deliver total shareholder return of 8% to 10% over the long term consisting of our expected 5% to 7% compounded annual growth rate in earnings per share.

Using 2020.

As the base year, along with our current dividend yield.

Looking forward, we would expect to grow the dividend consistent with our long term earnings per share growth rate of 5% to 7%.

Our business model continues to serve us well and we remain positioned to fund our rate base growth opportunities at the utility with our strong balance sheet.

Liquidity to support our businesses and strong investment grade corporate credit ratings.

We're now ready to take your questions.

Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question. Please press Star then one on your Touchstone telephone. If your question has been answered or you wish to move yourself from the queue. Please press the pound key.

After the Q&A softwood side with a few closing remarks.

Again to ask a question Thats Star then one.

Our first question comes from Brian Russo with Sidoti Your line is open.

Yes, hi, good morning.

Hey, Brian .

Just to start with.

Utility.

200 megawatts.

Currency customer I believe it's under a specific tariff rate and any detail you can.

For us on that.

How does that compare versus some of your other usual maybe your average C&I type rate.

Hey, Brian This is Chuck.

We filed a rate approximately five years ago in North Dakota.

We have a large general service rate and we came up with a new rate for customers that are over 25 megawatts.

Called Super large general service rate I don't always spent a lot of time on the naming but.

That rate is each individual customer has to have the rate approved by the commission, which we have done in this case.

It tends to be because this customer is interruptible.

Our curtailed bowl.

And.

It was really only in energy.

Using customer rates are fairly attractive from that standpoint, so it's a filed rate with our commission and but they need to approve each customer that goes on it.

Okay. So the rate is fairly attractive to the customer.

Yes, yes.

Not a large margin rate for us because there is no very little demand.

<unk> component on it.

Understood, but I guess.

You have quite a bit of capex. So as you were just able to spread cost overrun.

Larger.

Megawatt customer base.

As it reduces our.

Our fixed costs across all customers because it's it's low it is.

Covering our fixed costs on those energy the energy component.

Okay, and then just on the plastics.

It looks like your operating margins in the fourth quarter of 'twenty one.

Approximately 44%.

That compares to.

35% for the full year of 'twenty, one I'm wondering just based on your comments earlier is are the are the margins that you that you captured in the fourth quarter can we extrapolate that into the first quarter of 2022 to kind of figure out.

Kind of quarterly.

Dispersion and then do you think by the fourth quarter of 2022, you'll be back to historical margins.

Hey, Brian This is Kevin Thanks for the question.

Your comment is what we're seeing happen is that.

The results in the fourth quarter were stronger than what we expected when we were with you at the third quarter earnings call.

And so what happened is as demand continues to outpace supply we continue to see.

Upward movement in sales prices that then caused higher operating margins in the fourth quarter.

What occurred.

Throughout the year as you noted.

And what we're seeing is those conditions have continued into the first quarter.

And so to say can we extrapolate that I think thats a fair assumption based on what we're currently seeing as these conditions.

You said transitioned into the first quarter of two.

<unk> 2022.

So then as we go throughout the year of course things can change, but as we sit here today based on the reasons.

<unk> talked about in my comments.

Further included in the press release, we are expecting through the rest of the year than a return back to these more normal.

Conditions and what are those more normal conditions, but can we look on slide 25 of the earnings call presentation, we have that graphic that shows what's happened too.

The relationship of spreads.

Pricing.

And so we expect here over time that we're going to return back to those.

Call it those conditions.

18 to 'twenty early 'twenty, one time frame.

Yes.

Okay. So have you seen.

PVC prices.

Already moderating for the back half of the year or.

You have companies like yourself still raising prices.

In the first quarter, we're still seeing our first quarter and the first month and a half of the first quarter we have seen.

A rise in sales prices, we've seen competitors take sales prices up.

And.

We are seeing.

Expected.

Little bit of conflicting information, we've seen some announcements that says resin prices are going to come down.

And we've also seen some announcements where resin prices could stay where they're at or potentially increase. So we continue to monitor that I think the general view based on the PVC resin supply is has improved.

That prices will certainly remain flat to start to decline through the rest of the year, which would then we expect to see sales prices decline and.

Ultimately those return to more normalized margins.

The things that happened in the late fourth quarter was there was a <unk>.

The supply constraint with 10 stabilizer, that's used in the making of PVC pipe that caused a number of competitors.

Pipe converters, I should say to not take as much PVC resin because they were constrained with 10 stabilizer issues.

So that helped increase PVC resin supply towards the end of the year.

A lot of the tin stabilizer issues looks to have corrected themselves here.

Is there was an alternate product that converters, we're able to go back to to help with.

Kind of ramping back up their production, but that.

We start the year with low inventory levels.

Expect PVC resin production to improve as we go through the year and that will be a key driver on where spreads will shake out as we go through the rest of the year.

Okay.

Okay. Thank you that's helpful. And then just real quickly on BTG it.

It looked like you saw some margin compression.

To the low single digits versus the full year of mid to high single digits on an operating margin perspective.

It's the driver of that the reasons you cited supply chain issues from.

From the Oems.

And where do we see normalized operating margins as we move through 2022 as these Oems look to replenish their dealer inventories.

Sure.

Yes.

Move forward in the 2022, Brian I mean, the answer to the margin compression is certainly that the supply chain challenges that were talking about the fact that our productivity was.

Was it wasn't where we wanted to be because of the ramp up and new employees that we brought on it needed to continue to get them trained.

Continued to see some of the through the fourth quarter of those productivity challenges, we continue to work to improve those into into Q4 or I'm sorry.

Into 2022 and.

And as we look forward.

Certainly our.

We're expecting to see some strengthening in margins.

Will be somewhat offset by the fact that we will see lower scrap metal revenues.

In 2022, 2021 and highest scrap metal prices.

A pullback in scrap metal revenues, which.

Based on current scrap metal prices as they are currently declining.

Okay.

We're looking to offset some of that with improved productivity, but I think the other challenge Thats there is.

While we are certainly able to meet our.

Delivery requirements to our customers were being pushed off by them because of their other supply chain challenges.

So we're building to their forecast in terms of what they are telling us, but then they are taking the product.

As quickly as well.

We were as planned and so that has potential pressure on us in 'twenty two as well.

Okay got it and then just real quickly the backlog that you cited.

Manufacturing I understand sometimes it's not an apples to apples comparison.

A lot of.

Steel prices that might be higher versus a year ago.

Basically margin neutral for you, Brian because you pass it through so I was just curious what.

What's embedded in that like 300 plus million of backlog.

That's that's really not incremental.

Order related margins, but it's just inflationary pressure on the steel side.

Yes, I mean, I think our backlog in <unk> is mostly around that steel prices around that $800 a ton.

Yes.

Okay.

Okay got it.

Okay.

As a reminder to ask a question. Please press Star then one.

I'm not showing any additional questions at this time.

I would like to turn the call back over to Jack for any closing remarks.

Thank you for your questions and your interest in Otter tail Corporation.

Our outstanding 2020 results reflect the resiliency and hard work from the employees of Otter tail Corporation and unique market conditions.

With our utility growth strategy and predictable earnings stream complemented by our strategic manufacturing platform companies, we are well positioned to deliver 2022 earnings per share in the range of $3 78 to $4.08.

You for joining our call. We appreciate your interest in Otter tail Corporation, and we look forward to speaking with you next quarter.

This concludes the program you may now disconnect everyone have a great day.

[music].

Good morning, and welcome to Otter tail Corporation's 2021 earnings conference call.

Today's call is being recorded and we will hold a question answer session. After the prepared remarks, I will now turn the call over to the company for the opening comments.

Good morning, everyone and welcome to our call. My name is Tyler increments, and I manage otter Tail's Investor Relations area.

Last night, we announced our Q4 and full year 2021 earnings results are.

Our complete earnings release and slides accompanying this call are available on our website at otter tail Dot com.

A recording of the call will be available on our website later today.

With me on the call today are Chuck Macfarlane.

Higher tail Corporation's President and CEO , and Kevin <unk> Otter tail corporations, senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.