Q4 2021 Gap Inc Earnings Call

March 3, 2022

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Jenny and I will be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Gap Inc fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

For those analysts who wish to participate in the question and answer session after the presentation. You may now press star one to enter the queue.

As a reminder, please limit your questions to one per participant. If anyone should require assistance during the call please press the star key followed by the zero key on your touchtone phone.

I would now like to introduce your host Joe Scheeline.

Head of corporate finance and Investor Relations.

Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Gap, Inc.'s fourth-quarter 2021 earnings conference call.

Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the information made available on this webcast and conference call contains forward-looking statements. For information on factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements as well as a description and reconciliation of any financial measures not consistent with generally accepted accounting principles.

Please refer to page two of the slides shown on the investors' section of our website, gapinc.com, which supplement today's remarks as well as today's earnings release. The company's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 16, 2021, and any subsequent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

All of which are available on gapinc.com.

These forward-looking statements are based on information as of today March 3rd, 2022, and we assume no obligation to publicly update or revise our forward-looking statements.

Joining me on the call today are Chief Executive Officer, Sonia Syngal and Chief Financial Officer Katrina O'Connell.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Sonia.

Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us.

I'd like to start by reflecting on where we are in executing our planned strategy and then I'll address how we are set up to compete in 2022.

Looking back on 2021, I'm proud of the progress we've made on our long term strategies to drive profitable growth.

Navigating another year of volatility, we delivered record sales of $16.7 billion. This is a 21% revenue growth versus last year and up 2% versus 2019.

<unk> set of shedding an estimated $1 1 billion of unprofitable sales through store closures and divestitures and we achieved a reported operating margin of four 9% and adjusted operating margin of five 5%, while absorbing approximately two points four points estimated unexpected.

ERCOT as we navigated the supply chain disruptions in the second half.

Over the last two years, we have undertaken significant restructuring necessary to become a more nimble and focused company with that we've completed over 70% of our North American fleet rationalization with 250 store closures transitioned our European business through capital efficient partnerships and divested smaller non.

Strategic brands.

While we learned leaned into a digital first mindset.

This has resulted in reductions in fixed costs in both rod and store expenses.

Importantly, our four brands have healthy core businesses.

With old Navy crossing $9 billion in sales for the year.

Our revived and relevant GAAP North America, delivering 12 percentage comp sales growth versus 2019.

Banana Republic's new elevated brand positioning taking hold and the flatter demonstrating standout comparable sales growth of 48% versus 2019, well on its way to $2 billion in revenue.

Collectively our brand improved AUR to last year, lower discount rate driven by relevant product and marketing and enabled by the customer health we saw in 2021.

Okay.

I'm, particularly pleased with the partnerships, we've watched such as GAAP home with Walmart and easy gap, Simone Biles, and Alicia Keys, Athleta and next joint venture in Europe . We expect these partnerships to drive brand awareness attract new customers to our brands enable asset light category and market expansion and ultimately.

We grow our revenue. It's also important to note that we have intentionally leaned into demand generating investments in marketing and technology might redeploy much of the fixed cost reductions.

These investments have driven grant helps customer acquisition and revenue growth.

Especially in our important $6 4 billion online business, which contributed 39% of sales in 2021 versus 25% in 2019.

In 2021, and we grew our active customer file up to $64 million.

And in Q4, our loyalty customers accounted for roughly 80% of our U S sales setting us up to deepen customer relationships and drive long term value.

Customers returning to pre Covid purchasing behaviors, we are pivoting to a more versatile fashion offering on trend product across a range of used occasion, while playing to our market leadership in denim active and kids and baby we.

We saw these trends play out and the rise of old Navy's classic workhorse people, the Pixie Pant and that's let us best selling elation tight bulk now in flare leg shapes at gap and Banana Republic, we're seeing return to fashion essentials with sales of gaps modern khaki pant climbed 33% over 2019 in January alone.

And while Banana Republic women's believes there's outperformed expectations, specifically and novelty and high emotion colors and as kids return to in person School sports, we expect our kids and baby business with a market share of 9% to perform well.

In the face of a dynamic consumer landscape. Our teams continue to drive deeper connections with our customers and the communities. We are proud to serve.

Our employees have navigated two years of pandemic related disruption with ingenuity and an unwavering focus on doing what's right all while advancing our ESG goals I look forward to sharing our progress on that front and next months sustainability report.

Today, we are a company positioned for balanced growth through our four purpose led brands that reach a wide range of customers across all ages sizes use occasions and price points from value to premium.

In 2021, we also faced headwinds with supply chain issues weighing heavily on our performance, especially in the back half.

In the face of longer transit times from the West Coast Port delays and the sudden and prolonged closure of factories in Vietnam, We experienced eight to 10 week delays in seasonal categories in order to meet demand we utilized significant airfreight.

Liver as much of holiday product is because as a result sales were muted in profits pressured.

We have studied the levers we have more profitably improved on time delivery in 2022, and I'd like to share a few of those strategies with you.

First we accelerated booking deadlines for a portion of our spring 2022 product and book Summer even earlier as we saw delays worsen we accounted for elongated transit times and believe we have built in enough buffer for the current full delays.

Second we are diversifying important exposure.

Beginning with our summer assortment, we are moving the vast majority of our product through eastern and southern ports, where delays are materially better than on the west coast.

Third we are beginning to optimize manufacturing, including proximate sourcing to enable flexibility and increase speed specifically, we are growing our Mexico and Central America sourcing in 2022.

And fourth we accelerated the adoption of digital product creation capabilities at old Navy and doing so our teams are able to innovate more rapidly with suppliers and significantly reduced product design and development timelines.

For our fall 2022 season old Navy led the way in creating its assortment with a 75% year over year reduction in total development samples and a 40% reduction in total development time versus fall 2021 .

We will continue to build on this both at old Navy and across our brands.

While Q1 will have moderate product delays that necessitated air freight as a result of the upper mass merch as actions are summer and go forward deliveries are expected to be more on time and require only modest more normalized air by the end of the first half we expect the transitory air costs will have mostly flowed through the P&L.

Looking forward Katrina will share more on our outlook for the year and what we're seeing in the first quarter as we are keenly watching the dynamics of the macro environment let.

Let me speak to our strategies for 2022 across our portfolio.

Old Navy is expecting tougher first half compares as we look to anniversary the brand's disproportionate benefit from last year's stimulus and the fact that the consumer has quickly pivoted to fashion, such as dresses and tops, which are underrepresented in old Navy's women's product mix.

Teams are chased into more versatile categories are better balanced showing up in Q2 I remain confident in the overall health of old Navy and in its position as a value brand.

Frame the democracy of style for the whole family of jaw dropping prices.

GAAP is building on its momentum fueled by great products and strong pricing authority on the base of a healthier core and right sized fleet. The brand is leaning into its GAAP home easy gap and now easy get GAAP engineered by both yoga partnerships to further extend its reach and relevance around the globe.

Now the gap is landed these big partnerships. The year ahead will be about scaling them to drive sales. The brand is commencing the year with new channels for growth, adding 125 points of distribution in 2022, two partnerships licensing and franchise.

Banana Republic, new premium positioning now, claiming a stake in the accessible luxury space is enabling significant Lee higher AUR and basket size and price authority. The rebrand is giving us confidence that we can capture a resilient premium customers, while attracting new ones by entering adjacent categories like VR baby.

<unk>, which was announced earlier this week.

And that's led to is on track to hit $2 billion in sales by 2023 led by its digital dominance, including growth in the wellness space now six months into the launch.

The brands World class partnerships and inspiring marketing are helping reach new customers take for example, its announcement of its Simone Biles partnership last summer supported by television, which generated a significant pickup in traffic in stores and online from that investment.

This helped drive a five point increase in brand awareness breath letter in fiscal year 'twenty, one Q3 alone and for the full 20 year of 'twenty. One athletic grew its customer file in the double digits with nearly half of new customers driven by marketing investments.

After significant investments in marketing and technology, while we restructured we are focus on extracting maximum value in 2022 from those investments as well as optimizing the core specifically, we're looking at three key areas first growing our loyalty program and using first party data to better monetize our customer.

Relationships.

We are rigorously focused on increasing the lifetime value of our over 50 million loyalty members, particularly growing our team members who spend on average more than two times that of our core level members in Q4.

We will do this through greater personalization at scale enabled by the Rich first party data we acquired from marketing investments, we made last year, coupled with the customer insights. We've gained from our fully integrated loyalty program. This is particularly.

Important where the change is happening across the media landscape and then customers media consumption.

Second end to end supply chain transformation, where we're improving processes to drive efficiency and eliminate waste. This.

This includes digital product creation that trends time from the development cycle and save on overhead and sample costs.

Optimize shipping logic that reduces split shipments and implementing automated returns and our distribution centers that get product back to inventory in under an hour.

We are working on Derisking, our supply chain by rebalancing, our sourcing to rely less on single countries of origin and building deeper relationships with near shore vendors.

And third we're building inventory management capabilities. In addition to balancing category mix.

Which we believe will improve our ability to hold on to average unit retail even in the face of potentially higher promotional environment.

New digital tool are unlocking inventory allocation accuracy, using predictive analytics and data to better forecast and <unk>.

US more agile and precise about where we place product across our 2800 company operated stores and creating assortments by location to meet customer demand.

In turn reducing markdowns and helping maintain AUR.

The category mix perspective, we're leaning into higher AUR products, such as banana Republic, new silk leather cashmere and swayed style and that old Navy fashion essentials like dresses and woven tops.

As I look ahead to an environment, where style price and quality are top of mind for consumers, we're leaning into the power of our portfolio.

Versatility in our ability to offer a range from value to premium, particularly of some customers tightened budgets, while others seek out luxury statement pieces is our competitive advantage.

The 2022 outlook. We provided today represents a continued step forward of our strategy with profitable sales growth and a path to get through Q1 disruption and deliver on our priorities for the year.

While we are entering the your focus on executing against our strategy building on our progress and with a firm grasp of our levers we have to compete I would be remiss to not acknowledge the fluidity of the macro challenges impacting the speed with which we can unlock value in the portfolio.

As always we remain balanced taking a comprehensive view of all strategic options that account for and address the evolving macro environment and ultimately deliver the best outcomes for our customers our employees and our shareholders with that I'll hand, it to Katrina.

Thank you Sonya and good afternoon, everyone I'll begin with some highlights from the year, then cover Q4 and fiscal year 2021 annual results before moving on to our 2022 outlook.

Fiscal year 2021, net sales reached $16 7 billion and grew 21% versus last year, and 2% versus 2019 comparable sales improved 6% versus last year and 8% on a two year basis. We achieved these strong sales results, we're making significant progress towards our North America fleet restructure.

<unk> divestitures in international partnerships walking away from approximately $1 1 billion or seven percentage points of unproductive sales since 2019.

We generated considerable gross margin expansion through rod leverage as well as better product margins with average unit retail growth driven by less discounting offsetting higher airfreight costs.

Finally, we returned over $400 million to shareholders during the year through our dividend program and share repurchase plan.

We're able to reduce and restructure our long term debt saving approximately $140 million annually in interest expense beginning in 2022.

A note before moving to Q4 and full year results. Our adjusted fiscal year 2021 results exclude pre tax charges of $59 million related to divestitures $41 million in charges related to the transition of our European business to a partnership model and $325 million in fees associated with the REIT.

Structuring of our long term debt.

Moving onto Q4 results net sales of $4 5 billion were down 3% versus 2019, which included about nine percentage points of impact from divestitures permanent store closures in our European partnership transition.

Two year comparable sales were up 3% two year comparable sales by brand were as follows old Navy flat GAAP global up 3% Banana Republic down, 2% and athletic up 42%.

We continue to be pleased with the strength of the core a gap with GAAP North America, two year comparable sales of plus 12% the turnaround at Banana Republic and the momentum at Athleta old Navy results were disproportionately impacted by supply disruption in the quarter.

Moving to gross margin for the quarter reported gross margin of 33, 7% Deleveraged 210 basis points versus 2019 reported gross margin.

On an adjusted basis gross margin Deleveraged 260 basis points versus 2019 due to nearly 600 basis points in the estimated Eric costs, Excluding air gross margin expanded as we realized continued rod leverage in product margin expansion from higher average unit retails through lower discounting.

Reported SG&A of 33, 5% leveraged 760 basis points versus 2019 on an adjusted basis SG&A at 33, 3% of sales Deleveraged 300 basis points versus 2019, adjusted SG&A due to higher marketing technology and incentive compensation.

Station.

Spence.

The reported fourth quarter loss per share was <unk> <unk>.

With operating margin of <unk>, 2% on an adjusted basis operating margin was <unk>, 4% with a loss per share of <unk> <unk>.

Fourth quarter, ending inventory was up 23% versus 2020 about 15 points of the increase was driven by longer in transit times as port delays and longer air and Ocean schedules continued.

The remaining increase is driven by higher AUC, resulting from air cost that we expect to sell through as we move through the first half and from product mix shift into higher cost items like brs, new elevated product multipack offerings and the shift out of mass.

<unk> ended down single digits versus Earl Y in line with the trends seen throughout the year.

Moving to full year 2021 results for the full year earnings per share was <unk> 67 on a reported basis adjusted EPS for fiscal year 'twenty. One was $1 44 with sales of $16 7 billion growing 2% versus 2019 copper.

Comparable sales for full year 'twenty, one were up 8% on a two year basis.

Two year comparable sales by brand are as follows old Navy, plus 12% gap global plus 2% with North America plus 12%.

We are down, 9%, but up 24% year over year and Athleta up 39%.

Gross margin was 39, 8% for the year improved 220 basis points versus 2019 adjusted gross margin.

Rod accounted for 320 basis points of the improvement.

Merchandise margin Deleveraged 100 basis points versus 2019 on an adjusted basis with an estimated 240 basis points of higher airfreight, offsetting higher AUR and lower discounting.

Reported SG&A was 35% of sales for the full year.

Adjusted SG&A of $5 7 billion was 34, 3% up 310 basis points versus 2019, adjusted SG&A, reflecting investments in growth, primarily through marketing and technology as well as higher incentive compensation costs.

Operating margin was four 9% on a reported basis adjusted operating margin ended at five 5% inclusive of an estimated 240 basis points of incremental Eric expense due to.

Why chain constraints.

Regarding store counts, we opened 32 old Navy in 28 Athleta stores in the year net of closures in line with the expectations as part of our power plant strategy to expand the footprint of our growth brands.

The North America store closure plan for gap and Banana Republic progressed, well during the year with our 350 store closure plan now over 70% complete.

We ended the year with nearly $900 million in cash and cash equivalents during the year, we returned over $400 million in cash to shareholders repurchasing $201 million and shares to offset dilution and through our reinstated dividend program.

As we transition to 2022, we are focused on delivering value to shareholders through our economic model presented as part of our 2020 Investor day at.

At the time, we noted that navigating the uncertainty of the pandemic was the priority for 2020 and that we had a goal of returning to profitable growth in 2021, which we have achieved that.

The ongoing long term economic model, which will take hold in 2022 is centered on delivering total shareholder return through low single digit sales growth and the operating margin leverage yielding low double digit EPS growth combined with a competitive dividend.

The progress we've made against our strategy, especially our repositioning unprofitable areas of the portfolio and building relevance across all our brands is enabling the economic model to come to fruition in 2022.

Moving to our 2022 financial outlook, we expect full year reported EPS to be in the range of $1 95 to $2 15.

With adjusted EPS in the range of $1 85 to $2 in <unk>.

Of note our reported guidance metrics include a net benefit of approximately $100 million from the planned sale of our UK D. C. Now that our European partnership model transition is complete.

In addition, we expect approximately $50 million in charges related to our old Navy, Mexico business, where we have successfully reached a partnership agreement and are proceeding through rig required regulatory approvals.

Here are a few other thoughts about 2022 financial expectations.

We expect sales growth for the year to be in the low single digit range. We are planning for gross margins to be relatively flat on a year over year basis with a slight decline in merchandize margins to be offset by continued improvement in rod.

Within merchandise margin, we are expecting mid single digit commodity price increases to be largely offset by favorability in airfreight.

While we spent an estimated $430 million in airfreight in fiscal 2021, we plan to spend about 20% to 25% less in 2022.

A little more than half of the full year of 2022 are expense is expected to be realized in Q1 as we sell through product, we expedited for fourth and first quarter flows.

Improvements, we've made to our planning cycle, which we expect to fully come to bear in summer should reduce air usage, beginning in Q2 and through the back half of the year.

We aspire to maintain average unit retails to be roughly in line with 2021 levels as we manage through the current macroeconomic uncertainty regarding inflation in consumer spending we are planning to experience some discount rate reversion, but we'll be able to keep AUR is about flat with shifts into higher AUR product mix.

As well as by leveraging efficiencies, resulting from our ongoing inventory management transformation work.

Over the last two years, we've been transforming the company and making investments in service of our growth strategy.

Moving into 2022, and the next phase of the strategy, we plan to leverage SG&A. We are pleased with the spend levels. We have set in demand generating areas, specifically in marketing and our focus on driving the effectiveness of that spend while we also drive efficiencies within our operations.

Operating margin is expected to improve to six three to six 8% on a reported basis and 6% to six 5% on an adjusted basis.

Q1, ending inventory is expected to be up in the mid 20% range versus last year due to early bookings to offset longer transit times.

For the full year, we anticipate net interest expense of approximately $70 million as a reminder, we restructured our long term debt in 2021, bringing down our overall debt balance and realizing significant interest savings.

A note on cash Q1 is usually a quarter, where natural seasonality. It leads to a low point in cash balances for the year. This year, we have a unique dynamic where higher merchandise payments in Q4 related to airfreight and expected earlier payment timing in Q1 related to early bookings to navigate longer transit times have impacted near term.

Working capital.

And in early Q1, 2022, we drew $350 million from our ABL to bridge, our normal mid cap quarter to cash trough.

We expect material cash inflows in the first half of the year related to full year 'twenty tax refunds from the cares Act legislation.

We expect our full year effective tax rate of about 27%.

Regarding store count we're planning approximately 25 net closures during the year.

Our principles related to capital remain intact. Our first priority is to invest in the business to the degree we feel we can drive strong returns on our invested capital.

Next we believe an important part of total shareholder return is paying a competitive dividend that we look to grow annually as we've seen growth in net income.

And last we plan to return cash to shareholders with share buybacks intended to offset dilution.

With these principles in mind, we are planning full year capex investments of approximately $700 million in.

Investments will be largely slated against supply chain and technology projects focused on driving automation speed and efficiency within our fulfillment network, along with enhanced digital loyalty and personalization capabilities across the portfolio.

In fiscal 2022, we expect to repurchase approximately $200 million of shares to offset dilution.

Dividends remain a key component in our strategy to maximize total shareholder return and we were pleased to announce a 25% increase to our Q1 2022 dividend versus Q4 2021.

Before I close out the call I'd like to provide some additional color on the cadence for sales with particular focus in Q1, that's contemplated in our sales guide for 2022.

Year over year sales growth comparisons will likely be uneven throughout the year with some headwinds as we lap the stimulus benefit with continued supply disruption in the first half, particularly in Q1, and then <unk> as we lap supply challenges that constrained demand in the second half of fiscal year 2021.

We expect total company sales in Q1 to be down mid to high single digit negative versus 2021 with an estimated five points of the decline coming from lapping last year's strong sales generated by the benefit of stimulus two points from lapping divestitures store closures and R E.

<unk> partnership.

And the balance largely related to short term softness at old Navy related to category imbalances.

As Tony described old Navy is adjusting their category mix, beginning in Q2 and beyond to be more balanced between cozy and fashion old Navy has built strong responsive capabilities that allow the brand to chase into fashion trends, but the ability to chase has been adversely impacted by supply chain bottlenecks.

In closing the progress we've made this year against our strategy sets us up to deliver our long term ongoing economic model, we still have a firm conviction in our ability to grow our core brands and achieve a 10% operating margin over time.

This goal is still very much on our minds as we look forward in light of recent headwinds. It is possible that this timeline may extend modestly beyond the original timeline. Our primary focus is on the long term health of the business and delivering value to shareholders through consistent profitable growth year. After year, we are clear on our 2022 priorities.

And are acutely focused on realizing increased operational efficiency and most importantly, driving sustainable profitable growth.

With that I'll turn the call back over to the operator to begin Q&A.

Thank you.

As a reminder, you May press star one on your telephone keypad to enter the Q&A queue.

And please limit your questions to one per participant.

We will go to our first question from Matthew boss of Jpmorgan.

Great. Thanks, and thanks for all the color.

[laughter] Sonya so how do you see inventory levels positioned at old Navy today, how best to think about the opportunity across categories as the year progresses, and then Katrina with the outlook for 'twenty two guided six to six 5% operating margin I think it would be really helpful is just any way to split the.

The opportunity that you see remaining between gross margin and SG&A from here.

Hi, Matt. Thank you. So you know the inventory composition at old Navy is changing dramatically along with customer preferences are leaning into.

The categories like dresses or new silhouettes and paths for back to work.

That are working for them as well as denim with with new leg shapes.

It's a pretty radical change from last year, which was driven by cozy and active in fleet and so the team is working to chase that trend and rebalanced the composition of the inventory and we're confident that as that as we progress in the first half.

We will see that balance and talk and as you know the old Navy has dominance in kids.

Kids and baby with market share.

As number one in the kids space as well as denim.

High market share as well as in dresses. So they have the authority and were working on shifting the balance and then the inventory amount I'll, let katrina, perhaps comment on the actual overall level, but it really is a composition shift as well as an opportunity to chase into you know a very dynamic consumer preference.

Yeah and that as it relates to the operating margin are you talking about beyond 2022, how that splits out.

Yeah, exactly I was thinking.

6% to six and a half where do we go from here and how best to split it between gross and SG&A.

Yeah. So as we look forward I think there's.

<unk> opportunity in the margin expansion that will come from finally being able to shed the last of the airfreight. So in 2022, we talked about how we are getting some benefit from having about 20, 25% less air than the prior year, but really starting in 2023 and beyond we should not.

Need that airfreight, and so I think that's a meaningful benefit that we should see and we talked about how airfreight overall has been about 240 basis points of drag on the operating margin.

So some of that comes into play this year, but the majority in the out years. So that's a big portion of the opportunity and then beyond that I think it's gonna be split between margin and SG&A, but when I talk about margin, it's really more about getting after the big cost in margin like returns.

Or split shipments or are the places, where we actually have costs that flow through cost of sales spread combined with really figuring out new ways of operating an example of that is this digital product creation.

Breakthrough ways of using.

Digital tools to be able to work really differently and finally get a lot of the fixed cost out of the business. So we have lots of opportunities to really be refining the way we operate in I think beginning this year you heard US say, we've made a lot of investments now it's time to really start getting leverage off of those investments and then begin to really lean into how do we pull.

We'll out more cost in the business through digital capabilities and new ways of working.

Thanks for all the color best of luck.

Thank you.

And we'll move to our next question from Mark All Schwaiger of Baird.

Hi, good afternoon, Thanks for taking my question.

I wanted to dig into the gross margin just a little bit more lots of moving pieces there for the year. It sounds like merch margin overall down slightly.

But you'll be seeing some of the incremental here in Q1 in the first half maybe some promotional reversion.

Zinc concentrated in the first half as well, but then youre starting to lap some of the pressures in the back half. So I think I have that right, but just any more color you can provide on the quarterly cadence to get to the flat overall for the year would be very helpful. Thank you.

Yeah sure Mark I mean, it is complicated and as you noted there's a lot of puts and takes I think if I start with the year Simplistically, you're exactly right. We were hoping to keep margin overall flat.

Really with continued benefit in rent and occupancy. So we continue to get real benefit from the restructuring we've been doing and then when it comes to merchandise margins as you say, we're trying to take a prudent outlook for the year that while we saw great average unit retail improvements last year through much lower discounting there is.

The possibility that the consumer could revert and we would need to be more promotional. So we are proactively planning for that of course, we're going to do everything we can to hold on to the gains we got but for the purposes of guidance. We are not assuming that we have to hold onto all of that.

And instead, we are using.

The tools that we have at our disposal like the inventory management optimization.

Combined with some of the inventory mix changes that we're making to try and buoy. The AUR, even if discount were to to revert and then in addition to that we know that we have a commodity increases primarily in the in the face of cotton prices escalating and yet really matching off against that.

Some benefit we have from airfreight, so it's complicated but all of that to say that we do think we can still hold gross margins relatively flat now Q1 in particular and potentially the first half a little bit of a different story and as you say tale of two halves, where we did still have to use air freight.

Coming into Q1 in order to navigate what was still fairly acute we do plan to sell through that airfreight, mostly in the first quarter and then as Sonya said, we've used a lot of new levers to really get back to navigating the supply challenges, which we think will remain a long but with other two.

Rules that don't necessitate airfreight, so that should make for a more normalized margins in Q2, and then a real benefit in the back half as we lap the significant error that we experience. So hopefully that's helpful. But I know, it's a lot to digest and we'll keep talking to you guys about it as we learn more.

That is helpful. Thank you and if I could just follow up with maybe an SG&A focus question, but curious on your takeaways from the marketing initiatives over holiday and.

How youre planning overall marketing spend into 2022, thanks again.

Yeah, I think we're pleased with the investments we've made it in Q4, we saw really good SG&A discipline in many lines and the marketing investments helped us build sale.

<unk> growth Q4 over Q3 for three of our core brands. So our share of voice and the investments. We're making we think are paying off we don't expect to increase the rate of investment this year, its really as Katrina said earlier.

Tracking the maximum value of the marketing effectiveness right and one of the big benefits. We have is all of the rich first party data. We have we are in direct communication with our customers. We know lots about them and we're increasingly personalize our communication with them based on understanding their shopping patterns for category of patterns.

Their brand preferences, and we think that that's going to continue to give us advantage coupled with our sustained marketing investment that's more effective so no no growth expected more effectiveness.

Yeah, and I think to just put a point on that we did say that we had historically as a company really underspent in the demand generation of the company and that has resulted in our brands being sort of lackluster in their relevance and performance.

And so we really purposely invested even while we were restructuring the company because we didn't want to lose the opportunity to build the relevance of our brands to Tony's point I think we've done that successfully and now we really are focused on getting leverage out of those investments we've made on <unk>.

As we grow sales so it's definitely a year of pivoting to leveraging SG&A and getting more optimal in our spend.

Great Best of luck this year.

Thank you.

Yeah.

And well move on to our next question from Adrienne <unk> of Barclays.

Yes. Thank you very much good afternoon.

Sonya I wanted to focus on the inventory optimization.

Processes that are being implemented this year, what exactly can you give us some more details is it you know distribution at the edge that we've heard from other on other retailers.

And what is the sort of net benefit that is in the P&L. So how did that in basis points impact. The overall merchandise margins. So I'll start there. Thank you very much.

Yeah, No that's great listen we.

We buy a lot of units to distribute to 2800 stores and so what we're doing is buying more and more advanced analytics and AI to optimize our distribution from our Dcs to our stores. So we get better more even sell through less markdowns, you know, whether the size optimization or assortment optimization.

For seasonality.

Or whether it's just replenishing sell throughs and and so that we're expecting some nice benefits on that front as well as on a forecast that's fashion forecasting and so so we have a multiyear plan on inventory met a transformation on the big wins this year will be around allocation.

Okay, and then Katrina just to finish up on the inventory so units are down low single digits.

XD and transit the inventories up 8%, so it sounds like inflation to that 10%, but you're talking about AUR flat.

So I'm just wondering.

What what's the impact that would sort of imply pressure on merchandize margin throughout the year and they get that being offset by leverage just trying to understand.

Without price increases that were hearing from many others.

It doesn't sound like you're taking broad scale price initial retail price increases is that a correct assumption. Thank you.

Yes, so Adrian I think when you think about the inventory heading into Q1, what is sitting in that AUC is not just the product cost inflation, which we did say it was mid single digits. But also there are costs that we said we were carrying in and that are cost if you do the math.

Is about $150 million to $200 million and that is in the AUC. So that will potentially pressure. The gross margin in Q1, I'm not to vote not quite to the level. We saw in Q4, but certainly will have an impact on the first quarter margin as we sell through the air cost.

Now since we don't expect that to continue that's where we should see that margin pressure get alleviated and then we will get back to what I described for the year, which is a benefit and are offsetting commodities and then potentially a reversion on discount being offset by some of these inventory management capability.

Is that we're using to get better yield.

Okay any any early color that you want to provide you with given all those pieces what the G. M rates should be in the first quarter. It sounds like flat for the year, but a lot of pressure in Q1. So how should you. How do you think we should model kind of all those moving pieces for Q1 in the gross margin line.

I mean, there's a lot of different outcomes for gross margin depending on the range of sales, but what I can tell you is if you do the math on the air impact, it's about 400 basis points of air impact in the quarter and so hopefully that's helpful that subsides and I'll, let you guys do the math.

On what you think the sales outcome is and what would play through on the rest of it.

Okay. Thank you very much and best of luck.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, please limit your questions to one per participant. Your next question comes from the line of Kimberly Greenberger of Morgan Stanley .

Great. Thank you so much I wanted to ask about just the cost inflation that you're seeing it sounds like it's primarily product cost inflation Katrina.

I'm wondering and I understand that the mix between air and Ocean Ah got really out of whack because of this.

Vietnam.

Factory closures and just trying to expedite product in but if you.

And if you set aside that mix shift between Ocean and air are you seeing inflation costs in your freight expense in general outside of the next shift and are you I'm just asking about.

Inflation in your general cost, whether if you could help us understand what you are seeing in product costs.

Freight costs and wage costs. Thank you.

Sure Yeah, there's so many vectors of inflation that we're all navigating right now right. So there is this air Ocean mix that we talked about I think we've talked about that dynamic.

We are also seeing.

Cost increases in the mid single digits I think that's what we said to you and that's primarily the cotton price escalation that we had seen.

And then as you say there are freight costs that are higher and then wage costs that are higher.

All of that is contemplated in the guidance that we just gave I think we've talked a lot about the use of of our various AUR levers to be able to navigate the product cost mix and then on the freight side of things look we're watching it carefully and certainly the Russia, Ukraine thing doesn't help things, but so far.

<unk>, we've been able to navigate that relatively well with long term contracts, we have with our suppliers.

And then on the wage side of things, we've been working hard to find ways to overall makes the employee value proposition better by working on scheduling and a bunch of other tools that we have to make all of that work out as.

As we can and we're finding efficiencies and other places to pay for that so not an easy time to navigate but those have all been on our radar and contemplated in the outlook. We just provided today.

Thank you yeah, I'll, just add I think to this point.

While we arent seeing those mid single digit product cost increases.

And we are planning to pull that you ours, we do see some areas, where we have opportunity to increase select ticket prices in categories, such as athletic stretching into premium or the elasticity, we are seeing in gap.

Banana Republic, new premium positioning and so that that helps the select areas that being said, we're not planning on it.

It at a holistic level, but we do have those levers in addition to the yield management levers around inventory transformation that we spoke of so we'll use all the levers at our disposal to manage the margins to the outlook that could treat will provide it.

Thank you Sonya.

And we'll go next to Lorraine Hutchinson of Bank of America.

Thanks, Good afternoon Katrina, you've made a lot of progress on the rod leverage with the fleet transformation as you think through the path to your long term targets as the bulk of that behind us and the rest of the gross margin opportunity on the merch margin line or are there further gains to be had from here.

Yeah no. Thank you Lorraine, it's a great question as I think about the bridge that we gave at the Investor day, and where the value creation would come from.

We are really definitely getting the value we expected to from the Rod line, both through the store closures in North America as well as the Europe partnership.

We'll see if there's more opportunity there in some of our other international markets as we assess but for the most part I think that value is largely done the second piece that we had talked about was being able to invest in demand generation to grow our average unit retail and to let that gross margin expansion.

Helped offset the digital shift that we expected in the business and again I think that's largely played out as we expected in fact, we've probably made more progress on the gross margin side than we expected through average unit retails.

Offsetting digital and really before the supply chain pressures that was largely offsetting if not adding value.

And then the last leg was very much this operating efficiency.

At the time I think we thought it was just SG&A leverage now we see it more as you know.

Really digitizing operations in going after these big value creation levers.

And honestly, what we hadn't contemplated was this significant disruption and macroeconomic changes so all to say.

The rod leverage, it's probably mostly behind us but.

But with sales growth, we should continue to leverage that line modestly, but the material benefits behind us most likely.

And then I will add as you know I think we have a renewed emphasis and focus on SG&A.

With the leverage that we're expecting this coming year that focus on fixed cost coming out of the business stronger transformation and cooperations like inventory management like returns like our split et cetera, we are really leaning into that and we saw good progress in discipline in Q4 benefited.

And we expect to lean to lean into that as a very important lever and dynamic times in 2012.

Okay.

Thank you.

And well move to our next question from Paul that's way of Citi.

Hey, Thanks, guys.

I'll share a guidance for the year overall I'm curious if you could talk about which brands you expect to grow.

In 'twenty to assume further but curious if you are looking for growth with the other brands in the sector.

Can you just talk about the competitive landscape at old Navy any any signs of increased promotions amongst the competitive set there. Thanks.

Yeah listen it's a great question I was hoping someone would ask the question because as I said in my speech Paul.

This is a year of balanced growth, we are expecting all four of our brands to contribute to the sales growth as well as to the profit of the company and that's been years coming in were.

Were expecting and really that's the value of the portfolio. So.

I think different brands will have different proportionality, we're expecting good growth from athleta, continuing with their trend et cetera.

But all of our brands will be contributing to top line growth.

Did you Wanna, Oh, and your second question I'm, sorry, it was around the competitive pressures and margins for <unk>.

Old Navy is that what your question was.

Just curious what are you seeing a man on the competitive landscape front the signs of increasing promotions.

For competitive shot yeah, I mean, we are expecting.

They're at it to be more promotional environment than last year right last year was a big stimulus.

I think a very happy consumer predict in the first half so as we lap that.

And as the consumers are becoming more price conscious a lot of pressures with inflation.

The retailers will benefit to drive conversion and we are seeing some of that in our own business as well that being said I think it is manageable and we will continue to see different levers to compensate for that in the value space really important to hold on to the value equation and compete there and you know in times like this of inflation.

A brand like old Navy can compete very well because the overall apparel contribution to value typically grows so.

We're expecting that the value proposition of past essentials, the jaw dropping prices with family to continue and we're expecting that we'll see trade down customers that will benefit old Navy as well.

For this year so well.

We will see how the how it all plays out but it should be a good environment, and particularly our kids and baby business, where we have.

It almost 10% market share across our brands quite.

Quite resilient in this kind of environment.

Do you plan to take a leadership role and going after market share maybe investing in probably a little bit to do that.

So is there any market share is really really important and our investments have been in the Arab marketing to drive brand health and conversion as well as in technology to have more profitable sales flow through so we're happy with those areas and we think our prices are very competitive benchmark.

All of our brands against their competitive sets.

And that's.

Feel good about where our price position.

Thank you good luck.

Thank you.

And we'll go to our next question from Brooke Roach of Goldman Sachs.

Good afternoon, and thank you so much for taking our question.

Sonya I'd be curious to hear what you're seeing across the consumer landscape today, how is demand trending across each consumer income cohort across your portfolio of brands and I think you mentioned a potential benefits of trade down in old Navy banner in a prior question are you already seeing the benefits of that trade down today.

Or is that something that you're anticipating to happen over the course of the next few quarters.

So I'll start on the premium sector, we're seeing a lot of resiliency.

In the premium space in Athleta and Banana Republic are both.

I think achieving strong price realization.

And customer opportunity their income levels are high and for Banana Republic are growing.

Terms of the percentage of their customers and higher income bracket. So that is good.

GAAP.

Working through their their comp growth, they're seeing really strong average unit retail growth. So attracting you know I think a balanced customers value through premium and well babies as many shoppers values basis, they do making over $75000 a year. So they spent quite a range of customers because of their kids and baby business.

You know what I will say is we think there's all kind of win across all those segments, it's really about having the right assortment and the right audible brand management and that's where we're focused so certainly the the headwind of Anniversarying. The stimulus is a factor as between the third and the first.

And so we do think the consumer.

In the.

Most income bracket is hardest inflationary prices, but we'll be watching that carefully and we do expect some headwinds.

The short term.

Thank you and then for Katrina and the prepared remarks, you talked about several initiatives in the organization to increase the speed and agility of merchandise planning and sourcing and that's one of the big opportunities for margin. As you go forward can you talk to the timeline of this process and maybe the quantitative impact of at that aspect of the <unk>.

<unk> has in the long term plan. Thank you.

Sure I think that the main value creation that we see happening. This year is very much in those inventory management capabilities, but sonya spoke to primarily the allocation.

The data science that we're putting in.

Also with the purchase of <unk> for the first deployment that we have is leveraging the math that they have to better inform our stores on where they're performing in product versus other stores and giving them more data on how to better sell the product. They have so I would say that's the first leg.

And then in addition, the value creation this year.

In our guide is coming from the operating leverage coming from sales growth in the SG&A line. So those are those are those the future really is getting after the data science that gets to what Sonya talked about the returns optimization the split shipments.

And many of those other levers that are big cost items I would say broke those are we're going to lay those foundations. This year, we're going to work as fast as we can to get valued this year. If we can but most likely those will be big value creators for 2023 and beyond so that's how I would think about it.

The logistics lead times will be longer this year that has impacted the industry and so the way we were looking to compensate for it is by driving digital product creation as we've mentioned, which is taking weeks out of the product development cycle as well as moving into more proximate manufacturing and so we're expanding.

Our manufacturing in Latin America and Mexico.

This year and so that will start to balance some of those longer lead times and.

Create some sort of speed as we build.

Some responsive capabilities back into our supply chain this year as well.

And our last question will come from the line of Ike <unk> with Wells Fargo.

Hey, Thanks, good morning.

Two questions.

Katrina first on the margin.

Great.

<unk> kind of suggested over 200 basis points getting back next year. So that's kind of a gig.

Margin are you still comfortable with the 10% margin goal for next year or given all the cost pressures in the business as that becomes too much of a stretch at this point and then just a second follow up for I guess both of you.

Another quarter.

40% two year comp really strong growth.

I guess anything you could tell us where the margins in the business.

So the good news.

I guess my point is the market is clearly not giving you full value for that asset right now.

Okay.

Conversation you guys have internally when you're thinking about trying to extract value for your shareholders.

Hey, Ike so yeah. So I I know I said in my prepared remarks, there's no reason why we don't still have the 10% operating margin fully in our sites.

As you say, we achieved the operating margin we achieved in 2021, even with 240 basis points of headwinds from Air. We think we can get to six or six and a half this year with significant disruptions in the business.

And while we're not pleased with the speed with which we're getting there given the new macro headwinds we.

We are navigating them as best we can while still pushing forward on the plan, which we think can make sense, we still have the 10% operating margin in our goals.

As I said it might be modestly delayed from 2023, a little bit maybe more into 2024.

If the current macro environment stays challenging given that the new headwinds are just material that we're navigating but it doesn't mean, we have given up on that call. We actually still fundamentally believe and we'll challenge ourselves to get there if not in 2023, then but definitely by 2020 for maybe Sonya you want to speak to Athleta.

I think that we've been pleased.

Pleased with us let us growth rate it has seen the growth within the portfolio and we believe in our strategy. We believe we're doing the right work to grow our operating margins and to enable our growth.

They have healthy margins and they're also enabled by the power of the company whether it was March into Canada, the leverage of the E Com site.

The first party customer data et cetera. So you know, we're we're happy with our strategy, we're focused on executing it and growing all of our brands that being said Katrina and my job is always in parallel to be looking at options around value creation.

Your points, well taken and well understood and well as we do always continue to look at options.

Thank you.

And thank you that ends today's question and answer session.

And that does conclude the gap Inc earnings call.

You may now disconnect.

Goodbye.

[music].

Q4 2021 Gap Inc Earnings Call

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