Q4 2021 Accel Entertainment Inc Earnings Call

March 10, 2022

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Yes.

Thank you for your patience, we will begin in a few minutes time.

Please standby.

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Hello, and welcome to the OXXO Entertainment Q4, and full year 2021 earnings cool.

My name is Katie and I'll be coordinating your call today.

If you'd like to ask a question during the presentation you may do so by pressing star one on your telephone keypad.

I'll now hand over to your host Matthew Ellis SVP of corporate strategy. Each begin Matthew. Please go ahead.

Welcome to Accel Entertainment's fourth quarter and full year 2021 earnings call participating on the call today are Andy Rubenstein, <unk>, Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Carroll <unk> Chief Financial Officer.

Please refer to our website for the press release and supplemental information that will be discussed on this call. Today's call is being recorded and will be available on our website under events and presentations within the Investor Relations section of our website.

Some of the comments in today's call may constitute forward looking statements within the meaning of the private Securities Reform Act of 1095. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those relating to COVID-19, and its variant strains.

Actual results may differ materially from those discussed today and the company undertakes no obligation to update these statements unless required by law.

For a more detailed discussion of these and other risk factors investors should review the forward looking statements section of the earnings press release available on our website as well as other risk factor disclosures in our filings with the SEC.

During the call we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures as well as other information regarding these measures. Please refer to our earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of our website.

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Andy Rubenstein.

Thanks, Matt Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for <unk> fourth quarter and 2021 full year earnings call I'm pleased to report we had another strong quarter, which led to a record 2021, even though we weren't open for the full year adjusting for the days, we were closed in 2020 and 2020.

One year over year same store sales grew by 38%.

As we've highlighted throughout the year.

Primary drivers of the growth was the higher bet limits software upgrades and six <unk> installations.

Towards the end of 2021 and into 'twenty 'twenty. Two we saw a small decline in expected revenue and increased operating expenses related to the omicron Varian.

And Illinois overcome cases began to decline in mid November It peaked in late January while the mandatory mass mandate was already in place from August 2021 through February 2022.

However, as you would expect by the end of February .

Cases dramatically declined and play has begun to return to seasonal norms. Despite the small drop in revenue in early Q1.

The current momentum in our business, there's a lot of our guidance for 2022 remain unchanged.

Fortunately, we foresee no long term negative impact on.

On the expense side in addition to the higher than expected costs from overtime and other <unk> related impact in Q4, we strategically elected to increase our advertising expenditures during the fourth quarter to build deeper awareness for our AE player rewards as it is.

Target future location owners.

While we saw minimal immediate impact when the advertising we believe the investment will continue to drive more players to excel and help us win a larger share of new locations in 2022.

Without these additional expenses and even with reduced play our adjusted EBITDA would have been within the range. We've previously guided to.

I would now like to discuss our equity interest in gold rush.

We made convertible equity investments in July and October of 2019 in.

In July of 2021, we exercised our right to convert our convertible notes in the common stock of gold Rush. Unfortunately gold rush objected to the conversion and requested that the Illinois Gaming Board denied the transfer of equity interests to excel, which the <unk> debt.

We strongly disagree with the Icb's position on this and are pursuing all legal and administrative remedies to the fullest extent possible.

Accordingly, we recently filed a lawsuit against gold rush in the Circuit Court of Cook County, with respect to the denied conversion.

We are claiming damages for breach of contract and the applied covenant of good faith and fair dealing as well as unjust enrichment. As this is an ongoing legal matter, we cannot answer any questions, but the complaint as a matter of public record turning to century based on.

Current license application status is with the various regulators, we believe centrally will close by the end of May.

We are already licensed in South Dakota, and West, Virginia, and we expect to be licensed in Nevada.

Tanner and Louisiana by the end of May century continues to significantly outperform our original estimates and we're looking forward to adding them to the <unk> family.

Sticking with M&A. We also entered the Iowa market at the end of 2021 with our acquisition of rich in journeys.

Similar to Georgia, I allows for electronic amusement devices, where williams can be redeemed in the form of merchant credit.

While this was a relatively small acquisition. We believe it serves as a platform for future growth and remain excited about the potential opportunities in the Io market.

On the organic front, our sales team continues to sign additional competitor in organic locations.

Last year <unk> was awarded 281, new licenses or 35% of the total new licenses awarded.

As the first <unk> meeting of 2022, <unk> awarded 44, new licenses or 39% of the total licenses awarded our ability to continually win more licenses than our current market share is a strong testament to our sales capabilities brand awareness and location of our owners.

Believing in the excel difference.

When we look at the number of eligible businesses without gaming or the number of <unk> per capita we believe Illinois still has a significant amount of highly visible growth and.

Georgia.

We ended the year with nearly 100 locations and our pipeline continues to grow we're monitoring the house and Senate bills, which we would legalize a prepaid debit card redemption options and remain excited about the long term prospects for us in that market looking at other states, we remain cautiously optimistic.

States will consider distributing gaming in the future.

This year for bills were filed in Missouri that are currently awaiting committee hearings and the North Carolina video gaming legislation is expected to be introduced in the upcoming short session.

We continue to work with the various stakeholders to educate them about the benefits of the distributed gaming and the incremental revenues it generates for state and local governments and small businesses alike. We are confident the growth playbook, we built at Illinois can be replicated in any future market and our leadership position nationally.

Create advantages for us.

Overall <unk> is in a very strong position to capitalize on the future our hyper local business model low capital requirements and highly visible growth others, one of the best returns and gaming.

With that I'd like to turn it over to Brian to walk you through the numbers in more detail.

Thanks, Andy and good morning, everyone.

For the fourth quarter, we had total revenue of $192 million and adjusted EBITDA of $33 million for.

For the full year, we set a new <unk> record with total revenue of $735 million and adjusted EBITDA of $140 million.

Year over year increases of 132% and 312% respectively.

As compared to 2019 revenue was 71% higher and adjusted EBITDA was 75% higher.

Vocation hold per day for the fourth quarter was $782 a year over year increase of 34%.

Location hold per day for 2021 was $806 a year over year increase of 38%.

The primary drivers of the increase were the higher bet limits software and our sixth PTT initiative.

Capex for the fourth quarter was $11 billion cash spend in Capex for the full year was $30 million cash spend.

As of December 31, we.

We had 13639 <unk> and 2584 locations.

Year over year increases of 11% and 6% respectively.

Location attrition continues to remain low and mirror the pre COVID-19 historical averages at the end of December our average residual contract length was approximately six eight years, our ability to maintain this figure is a true testament to the strong and long lasting relationships, we built with our location partners.

Yes.

As you May know towards the end of November 2021, we announced a 200 million dollar share repurchase program as we find the opportunity to return capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks and attractive use of our significant free cash flow.

We purchased $9 million of <unk> stock at an average purchase price of $12 79 per share.

In January and February of 2022, we purchased an additional $11 million of <unk> stock at an average purchase price of $12 73.

Given our relatively under Levered balance sheet and strong free cash flow, we are in position to make exciting investments like century, and thoughtfully returning capital to shareholders at the end of the fourth quarter, we had approximately $143 million of net debt and $749 million of liquidity consisting of $191 million of cash on our balance sheet.

And $550 million of availability.

For 2022, and as Andy mentioned earlier, given the current momentum we are reiterating our guidance we saw a small impact from the omicron variant, but 2022 is still tracking towards the guidance released last November .

Similar to our last call I am going to share guidance without century, and then include century pro forma on a full year basis.

2022 guidance also assumes Georgia will no longer be an emerging market in the second half of 2022. Since we will have operated in Georgia for more than 24 months, we expect to end 2022 with $14560 to 14750 <unk> in 2760 to 2000 and 785 location.

Including century, we expect to end 2022, with 23000 to 25000, Ptt's and 3700 to 3800 locations.

2022 revenue is estimated to be $820 million to $870 million, assuming the full year benefit from century revenue is estimated to be 1.17 to $1 $1 8 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be $160 million to $170 million.

Assuming a full year of century, adjusted EBITDA is estimated to be wondering $82 million to $198 million.

Capex is estimated to be 20% to $25 million cash spend.

Assuming a full year century, capex is estimated to be 25% to $35 million cash spend.

Back to you Andy.

Thanks, Brian .

We are extremely pleased with our record performance. This past year and are even more excited for what the future holds.

2021 was a year of record monthly revenues. Despite the slow start due to COVID-19 related closures.

Recent results have solidified our view that these elevated revenues are sustainable going forward.

It is important to remember that our product and gaming experience today is substantially better than it was in 2019 and that is reflected in our results and outlook.

We have more machines per location newer cabinets, better software higher jackpots and higher Max bets.

In addition, our locations continue to invest in nature of gaming areas, given the strength and importance of the incremental revenues, we help them generate.

We remain confident that our asset light hyper local business model creates a platform to outperform in difficult times and really thrive under normal circumstances as demonstrated by our continued performance. We aim to leverage our proven business model and extremely strong financial position.

To continue our expansion and return capital to shareholders. We've gone from one state to soon to be nine states and we see that continuing to expand.

Our success would not be possible without our dedicated employees and loyal customers. They are the true competitive advantages of our business that make it sell the preferred choice and distributed gaming we will now take your questions.

If you would like to ask a question. Please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now.

If you would like to remove your question. Please press star followed by Chi.

When preparing to ask a question. Please and you show your phone is muted locally.

We take our first question from Steve <unk> from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hey, Thanks, guys can you just talk a little bit more about the recent trends you are seeing that gives you the confidence to reiterate the guidance.

Spice and negative impact from <unk> in January are you back to pre <unk> levels.

Yes, Thank you Steve.

We we've seen a building strength since <unk> kind of worn off its effect on the overall economy and.

As the early numbers had.

Indicated in March it's building upon what we saw late February and I believe as people are kind of.

Re engaging with kind of society and.

Going out more.

That has impacted us in a positive way.

Most recently the mass mandate in Illinois was.

Revoked and therefore people are able to go out mask lists.

And in Cook County.

The requirement of vaccination has also been removed so more and more people are feeling comfortable.

<unk> out.

And.

Engaging with our machines.

Okay, great. Thank you and just how are you approaching share repurchases is it all opportunistic.

How are you weighing share repurchases versus other uses of capital such as M&A.

Yes, so we filed a <unk> and so therefore, there is a program that is purchasing based on.

The.

The price in the market and there is different thresholds.

We.

We will continue to look at share repurchasing as.

An opportunity to return value to our investors.

Currently we see the pricing such that we will continue down that path as far as.

Relative to the M&A.

We plan to continue to do both.

There is capacity for.

US continue down both paths, we have considerable cash flow to be able to sustain both.

Programs for the foreseeable future.

Okay, great. Thank you I appreciate it.

The next question comes from Jordan Bender from Macquarie Capital. Please go ahead Jordan.

Thanks, Thanks for taking my question.

You've talked about the strength in the higher bet limits over the last couple of quarters.

When you think about the average size prior to the upgrades and where it stands now I was just wondering if you have a sense of how much more.

The average bet size has to move up.

Yeah, I mean, it has trended upwards and we see our funds and increasing.

The ability for the consumer to continue to increase their bad is there.

We really don't know what their individual capacity or as a group will be in a lot of that.

It is related to.

Obviously wage inflation and the cost of alternative.

Entertainment.

Okay and then for my follow up you just talked about the elevated advertising spend kind of towards the end of the year should we expect that to creep into the first and maybe second quarter of 2022 as well.

No that was I would say that was an opportunistic.

Situation, where we.

We were having a lot of strength that we were introducing.

A lot of newer players the AE rewards program and we will continue.

With our previous program of <unk> rewards and.

Use the jackpots and other types of rewards to entice the players.

Okay.

Thanks, Andy next quarter.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Stephen Grambling from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, This is now on a par psalm for Stephen Thanks for taking the question as it relates to the guide and emerging markets can you remind us what else Besides <unk>.

Georgia, no longer being in that category will be in emerging markets. So for example, Iowa and whether any of country dates would be in the number.

Okay.

Yeah, I would say for this year, we'd be looking at.

Iowa, and Pennsylvania as emerging markets for us.

<unk>, obviously is a mature market as well as in.

In both Nevada, and Montana, so as.

If you think about it just those two.

Other states.

Thanks, and one more from me have you seen any impact so far at your locations from higher gas prices or any of the macro uncertainty impacting the consumer potentially.

Yes, I think it's really premature for us to see any of that and.

Our numbers have been strong.

As expected.

So far.

And do we expect.

The fact that our offering of entertainment is static and price that we will continue to see that strength.

That makes sense that's all for me. Thank you.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Greg <unk> from Northland Securities. Please go ahead.

Hey, good morning, guys Wonder.

I'm wondering if you could talk about the degree to which century is outperforming your original estimates.

Yeah.

Thanks, Greg.

Essentially has seen strength similar to.

The rest of the country in terms of as we've rebounded around gaming.

Across the board with additional stim.

Stimulus that we saw in <unk>.

In 2020 one.

We underwrote the deal at $20 million of EBITDA.

We've guided somewhere between 20 to 25.

And we think that.

Their performance that what we've seen in the last.

Call It six months.

<unk> indicated that that's very achievable.

And.

Similar to Illinois they.

Have their.

Establishments are close to where people live so the impacts of of having to drive to a more destination gaming experience.

<unk>.

Affect them like it will regional casinos.

Got it that's helpful and if we could touch on the Io market.

How sizable that opportunity I know, it's amusement and ATM.

Versus easy to use but.

I'm wondering if you could maybe discuss the market opportunity in Iowa, and if youre seeing maybe other attractive opportunities there.

Yes, I mean today, it's not material.

But we see it growing quite a bit.

Significantly over the next couple of years.

It's an ancillary market to us.

We had a previous service agreement with the company.

And when they were looking to exit their market.

It was a good fit so we have.

We have reasonable expectations for growth there.

But.

At this point it will not be material to the overall performance of the company.

Okay understood last one for me.

Just given your very close with your locations or your establishment have you seen any impacts relating to locations struggling to find employment regular.

Regular open hours.

Yeah, I mean that was that was definitely impactful.

In February I mean, I'm, sorry in December and January a lot of it related to <unk> where people were.

Reluctant to go back to work.

Due to the proximity to all the customers end.

Working in an environment, where they thought were less safe than their homes.

February has.

Indicated that's kind of loosened up and we've seen their ability to.

Operate and more.

Total operating hours and find additional.

Employees that would allow them to do so, but it's definitely impacted hours of operation.

In both December and January and just like it affected our overall performance in those in those months.

Okay. Thank you.

Thanks.

As a reminder to ask a question. Please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now.

We take our next question from Amazon from Jpmorgan. Please go ahead.

Hey, Andy Brian Matt Thanks for taking my question.

Just one how are you thinking about the bridge of new locations added both from the Gaming Commission and then conversions this year and the potential impact of any attrition.

Yeah.

Okay.

So.

We expect to kind of continue the pace that we have.

Maintained over the last few years in terms of adding new locations, we see 'twenty two is a.

Very good year as we know what our pipeline is.

Obviously, they need to be converted to.

Live locations.

The attrition.

Which was greater in 2020 one is.

Businesses failed due to almost two basically the COVID-19 .

Pandemic.

We're starting to see some of those businesses with new ownership reopened so I would say the attrition will be lower.

A relative basis than previous years.

And growth.

Four new locations should should pick up towards the back end of 'twenty two into 'twenty three.

Great. Thank you.

Thank you Omar.

I can confirm we have no further questions I'll hand, it back to Andy for any closing remarks.

Yeah. Thank you everyone for joining us today.

And like I said that we have begun a very strong 2022 and.

We are very optimistic that this strength will continue.

There are a lot of indicators that we.

We are in the B and the begin the beginnings of one of the best <unk> has ever had and so we look forward to speaking with you guys again in a few months. Thank you and have a good day.

Thank you all for joining this now concludes today's call. Please disconnect your lines.

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Q4 2021 Accel Entertainment Inc Earnings Call

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