Q1 2022 Ovintiv Inc Earnings Call
At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session.
At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session.
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Members of the investment community will have the opportunity to ask questions and can join the queue at any time by pressing star one.
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Please be advised that this conference call may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of Aventis.
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I would now like to turn the conference call.
I would now like to turn the conference call.
To Mr. Jason for Hayes from Investor Relations. Please go ahead Mr. Hayes.
To Mr. Jason for Hayes from Investor Relations. Please go ahead Mr. Hayes.
Thank you operator, and welcome to our first quarter 'twenty two conference call.
Thank you operator, and welcome to our first quarter 'twenty two conference call.
This call is being webcast and the slides are available on our website at <unk> Dot Com. Please take note of the advisory regarding forward looking statements at the end of our slides and in our disclosure documents filed on SEDAR and Edgar.
This call is being webcast and the slides are available on our website at <unk> Dot Com. Please take note of the advisory regarding forward looking statements at the end of our slides and in our disclosure documents filed on SEDAR and Edgar.
Following prepared remarks will be available to take your specific questions. Please limit your time to one question and one follow up.
Following prepared remarks will be available to take your specific questions. Please limit your time to one question and one follow up.
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Boardwalk Real estate investment Trust first quarter 2022 earnings Conference call.
I will now turn the call over to our CEO Brendan Mccracken.
I will now turn the call over to our CEO Brendan Mccracken.
At this time.
Good morning, Thank you for joining us.
Good morning, Thank you for joining us.
<unk> are on listen only mode.
Quite a lot has happened since we reported our year end results commodity prices have increased significantly due to unfortunate geopolitical events and continued supply chain disruptions across the globe.
Quite a lot has happened since we reported our year end results commodity prices have increased significantly due to unfortunate geopolitical events and continued supply chain disruptions across the globe.
Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session.
If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance. Please press star zero for the operator.
This call is being recorded on May 10, 2022.
We're just heartened by these events and hope that they resolve as quickly as possible.
We're just heartened by these events and hope that they resolve as quickly as possible.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Powers. Please go ahead.
<unk> is dedicated to responsibly, producing our barrels and b to us to provide the world the energy needs.
<unk> is dedicated to responsibly, producing our barrels and b to us to provide the world the energy it needs.
Thank you Miranda and welcome to the Boardwalk reached 2020 to first quarter results Conference call.
I'd like to kick off by covering some of today's key highlights.
I'd like to kick off by covering some of today's key highlights.
With me here today are Sam Coleus, Chief Executive Officer, Lisa <unk>, Chief Financial Officer, James Hall, President and Rick and head of acquisitions. Please note that this call is being broadly disseminated by way of webcast. If you have not already done so please visit <unk>.
Our strategy is continuing to lead to strong returns on both the capital we are investing and the cash we are returning to our shareholders were.
Our strategy is continuing to lead to strong returns on both the capital we are investing and the cash we are returning to our shareholders were.
We're delivering those returns while continuing to strengthen the balance sheet drive ESG progress and generate leading capital efficiency.
We're delivering those returns while continuing to strengthen the balance sheet drive ESG progress and generate leading capital efficiency.
We are once again, raising our base dividend this 25% increase marks the third raise in the last 12 months and reflects the structural cost reductions and efficiency gains we've made in our business to drive our breakeven price lower and unlock a higher sustainable dividend.
We are once again, raising our base dividend this 25% increase marks the third raise in the last 12 months and reflects the structural cost reductions and efficiency gains we've made in our business to drive our breakeven price lower and unlock a higher sustainable dividend.
<unk> Dot com slash investors, where you will find the link to today's presentation as well as PDF files of the Trust's financial statements MD&A and supplemental information package star.
Starting on slide two we would like to remind our listeners that certain statements in this call and presentation may be considered forward looking statements.
We are also confirming the doubling of our shareholder return starting October one.
We are also confirming the doubling of our shareholder return starting October one.
We are making tremendous progress on reducing debt and want to solidify the timing of our cash return inflection.
We are making tremendous progress on reducing debt and want to solidify the timing of our cash return inflection.
Although the expectations set forth in such statements are based on reasonable assumptions boardwalks future operations and its actual performance may differ materially from those in any forward looking statements.
This plan sets us up to deliver $1 billion of cash returned to our shareholders. This year.
This plan sets us up to deliver $1 billion of cash returned to our shareholders. This year.
With that said debt reduction still continues to be a key priority and we have line of sight to achieving $3 billion of net debt in the third quarter.
With that said debt reduction still continues to be a key priority and we have line of sight to achieving $3 billion of net debt in the third quarter.
Additional information that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are detailed in boardwalks publicly filed documents I would like to now turn the call over to Sam <unk>.
We're also making progress on our absolute debt and issued notice to redeem the entire principal amount of our outstanding 2024 notes roughly $1 billion in total.
We're also making progress on our absolute debt and issued notice to redeem the entire principal amount of our outstanding 2024 notes roughly $1 billion in total.
Thank you Eric and welcome everyone to our Q1 2022 conference call starting on slide four our strategy continues to deliver solid results with our GAAP and non-GAAP measures that Boe per unit profit per unit net asset value and unit holder equity and fair value of investment prop.
In addition to financial and operational excellence, we're proud to continue to demonstrate leading ESG performance yesterday, we published our 2022 sustainability report, which highlights strong year over year progress across a wide range of key performance metrics and marks our 18th consecutive year of transparent ESG.
In addition to financial and operational excellence, we're proud to continue to demonstrate leading ESG performance yesterday, we published our 2022 sustainability report, which highlights strong year over year progress across a wide range of key performance metrics and marks our 18th consecutive year of transparent ESG rich.
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Finally, we are maintaining and maintaining an intense focus on capital efficiency. Our 2022 outlook is robust and the team is continuing to drive innovation to offset inflationary pressures seen across the industry in the broader market today.
Slide five.
Finally, we are maintaining and maintaining an intense focus on capital efficiency. Our 2022 outlook is robust and the team is continuing to drive innovation to offset inflationary pressures seen across the industry in the broader market today.
Our Q1 2022 <unk> per unit growth is at four 6% from the same quarter last year, despite inflationary pressures.
Our strategy to create value for our stakeholders begins with our people.
Our 'twenty two plan is set to deliver about $5 billion of cash flow at a price deck of a $100 <unk> and $6 Nymex gas we're.
Our 'twenty two plan is set to deliver about $5 billion of cash flow at a price deck of $100 <unk> and $6 Nymex gas.
We are positioned and are so grateful for our extraordinary team who continues to innovate and deliver our places homes for our resident members in turn this leads to leading earnings performance, which we believe will continue to result in strong total returns for all our stakeholders.
We're committed to capital discipline, we're reinvesting less than 35% of this cash flow, allowing us to utilize the remaining 65% plus for dividends buybacks and debt reduction.
We're committed to capital discipline, we're reinvesting less than 35% of this cash flow, allowing us to utilize the remaining 65% plus for dividends buybacks and debt reduction.
And while we've increased our capital guidance to align with our current expectations for cost inflation and to keep our high spec equipment in preferred crews running for the remainder of the year. Our 'twenty two plan still ranks among the top of our peer group and capital efficiency, Greg will speak more to this later in the call.
And while we've increased our capital guidance to align with our current expectations for cost inflation and to keep our high spec equipment in preferred crews running for the remainder of the year. Our 'twenty two plan still ranks among the top of our peer group and capital efficiency, Greg will speak more to this later in the call.
Our strategic focus is our.
Significant organic growth from utilizing our proven platform that focuses on operational excellence to optimize NOI growth. When we pair this with the current improvement in apartment rental market fundamentals, we are well positioned to accelerate on our organic growth trend.
Given our significant 2022 cash flow profile, we want to provide clear and transparent timing for our upcoming shareholder return increase we.
Given our significant 2022 cash flow profile, we want to provide clear and transparent timing for upcoming shareholder return increase we.
Accretive capital recycling focuses on opportunistic investment into acquisitions development and investment into our own high quality existing portfolio with tactical unit buyback. These.
We will double our returns to 50% of after based dividend free cash flow starting on October one.
We will double our returns to 50% of after based dividend free cash flow starting on October one.
Overtime. This return profile has upside potential as we continue to deleverage and take costs out of the business today, our actual second quarter annualized cash return yield is approximately 6%.
Over time. This return profile has upside potential as we continue to deleverage and take costs out of the business today, our actual second quarter annualized cash return yield is approximately 6%.
These opportunistic investments combined with our operational optimization.
<unk> boardwalk for increasing asset values within boardwalks diversified and high quality multifamily portfolio.
Doing this well we continue to rapidly reduce net debt.
Doing this well we continue to rapidly reduce net debt.
This metric almost doubled to 10% as we move to our 50% shareholder return distribution and jumped to 18%. If you remove the impact of hedges I'm excited to highlight that this 18% cash return yield is attainable in the near term as our hedges roll off and this return outpaces both IND.
This metric almost doubled to 10% as we move to our 50% shareholder return distribution and jumped to 18%. If you remove the impact of hedges I'm excited to highlight that this 18% cash return yield is attainable in the near term as our hedges roll off and this return outpaces both the <unk>.
Our solid financial foundation provide flexibility on our balance sheet with our growing free cash flow and with CMA Sea insurance on 95% of our financings, which provides access to low cost mortgage capital with reduced renewal risk.
Excuse me.
Slide seven we are in the right place at the right time with a positive outlook on value and multifamily fundamentals.
<unk> and broader market offerings.
<unk> and broader market offerings.
A strong driver of our go forward cash return offering is a refreshed hedge profile today. Our first half 2023 hedge book is complete and equates to about $20 to 25% of production, while also providing upside participation north of $110 <unk> and $7 nine.
A strong driver of our go forward cash return offering is a refreshed hedge profile today. Our first half 2023 hedge book is complete and equates to about $20 to 25% of production, while also providing upside participation north of $110 <unk> and $7 90.
<unk> walks existing exposure to strong rental demand unregulated markets with increased immigration significant organic growth as Alberta, and Saskatchewan, if some of the most affordable rental rates in the country with limited new supply versus demand in both international and.
Ex gas.
Next gas.
This revised approach is set to deliver significant cash flow expansion in 2023 and allow us to return significantly more cash to shareholders on a go forward basis.
This revised approach is set to deliver significant cash flow expansion in 2023 and allow us to return significantly more cash to shareholders on a go forward basis.
Interprovincial migration.
Boardwalk has compelling value currently trading well below our intrinsic value of $68 per trust unit declining.
Despite a few headwinds in the quarter, we delivered solid results generated significant free cash flow and directed a substantial amount of cash to shareholder returns, we generated more than $1 billion of cash flow along with free cash flow of $592 million.
Despite a few headwinds in the quarter, we delivered solid results generated significant free cash flow and directed a substantial amount of cash to shareholder returns, we generated more than $1 billion of cash flow along with free cash flow of $592 million.
Inventories of homes.
<unk> home prices and rising construction costs are all widening the gap between our replacement cost of our assets and our current valuation.
We returned approximately $123 million to our shareholders or 38% of our fourth quarter 21 free cash flow through the combination of share buybacks and our base dividend.
We returned approximately $123 million to our shareholders or 38% of our fourth quarter 21 free cash flow through the combination of share buybacks and our base dividend.
Construction levels remain low relative to historical levels with a stronger demand for housing.
Positive leasing momentum in our core markets is increasing revenues and asset values with increasing operating income.
During the quarter, we largely offset growing inflationary pressure on capital. This is something we've been intensely focused on mitigating through the better part of last year.
During the quarter, we largely offset growing inflationary pressure on capital. This is something we've been intensely focused on mitigating for the better part of last year.
In our largest market Edmonton the factors that have led to lower occupancy in the past are reversing now and helping to contribute to our overall occupancy gains. These factors are.
On the production front, we produced 500000 Boe's per day above the midpoint of guidance. When we came in above our guidance range for natural gas and we were within the range on total liquids. We also saw very strong realized pricing across each of our products.
On the production front, we produced 500000 Boe per day above the midpoint of guidance when we can.
Came in above our guidance range for natural gas and we were within the range on total liquids. We also saw very strong realized pricing across each of our products.
Omnicom, Rick Omnicom wave restrictions have now been lifted the cold weather spring and summer is now here University students are now returning blue collar jobs, which can't work from home are now being filled again and international migration is now returning.
On oil and condensate production, our oil and condensate production was slightly below our guidance for the quarter. We lost roughly 3500 barrels per day from a combination of higher Canadian royalty rates, which are directly correlated to higher commodity prices operational delays and weather disruptions with that said our.
On oil and condensate production, our oil and condensate production was slightly below our guidance for the quarter. We lost roughly 3500 barrels per day from a combination of higher Canadian royalty rates, which are directly correlated to higher commodity prices operational delays and weather disruptions with that said our.
Travel restrictions easing and the oversupply in Edmonton is being absorbed by an increase in demand and a flattening of new supply as many builders have moved to D. C to build where there is a need for more supply.
<unk> 'twenty two plan remains strong and we expect our production profile in the second half of the year to match our original plan.
<unk> 'twenty two plan remains strong and we expect our production profile in the second half of the year to match our original plan.
Our substantial free cash flow generation declining leverage profile and near term inflection to higher shareholder returns continuing to differentiate you differentiate us as an investment opportunity.
Our substantial free cash flow generation declining leverage profile and near term inflection to higher shareholder returns continuing to differentiation differentiate us as an investment opportunity.
Overall, new supply in Edmonton remains flat as condo construction has declined sharply offsetting the sharp increase in rental construction.
With the apartment rental fundamentals balancing market vacancy has dropped resulting in stabilized pricing. The current trend reflects demand will soon outpaced supplying that meets and similar to our southern Alberta market by summer with upward inflationary pressure on prices.
I will now turn the call over to Greg to talk about our operational highlights.
I will now turn the call over to Greg to talk about our operational highlights.
Thanks Brendan.
Thanks Brendan.
I'd like to discuss our thinking on our capital guidance, while many of our peers increase their stay flat capital budgets by 15% to 20% last quarter, we were alone in maintaining our original 2022 guide.
I'd like to discuss our thinking on our capital guidance, while many of our peers increase their stay flat capital budgets by 15% to 20% last quarter, we were alone in maintaining our original 2022 guide.
Slide eight the economy and labor market in Alberta has significant significantly improved with our jobs minister expecting our economy to bounce back to 2014 levels real time statistics published by the Calgary Real estate Board reflect home sales in Calgary continue.
We came into 2022 anticipating over 10% inflation, but we have line of sight to ongoing efficiency gains that would fully offset that.
We came into 2022 anticipating over 10% inflation, but we had line of sight to ongoing efficiency gains that would fully offset that.
Our team did a great job delivering on those efficiency gains and we were largest largely successful in Q1, it offsetting inflation too.
Our team did a great job delivering on those efficiency gains and we were largest largely successful in Q1, it offsetting inflation.
Towards the end of Q1 and into Q2, we've seen inflation step up past our original expectations.
Towards the end of Q1 and into Q2, we've seen inflation step up past our original expectations.
To be strong with total sales and average prices up so far in may reflecting continued strong demand for affordability and.
This incremental inflation has been largely driven by higher commodity prices global geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions.
This incremental inflation has been largely driven by higher commodity prices global geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions.
In addition to the positive impact that higher commodity prices are providing for our western Canadian markets with Alberta.
This has led us to update our full year capital guidance to one 7% to $1 8 billion.
This has led us to update our full year capital guidance to one 7% to $1 8 billion with.
<unk> about budget now balanced there has been a steady stream of investment and job, creating announcements from the emerging technology and clean energy sectors.
With a large part of this additional capital directly tied to inflationary pressure on commodity based items, such as steel related cost diesel and labor.
With a large part of this additional capital directly tied to inflationary pressure on commodity based items, such as steel related cost diesel and labor.
Additionally, we are adding a modest amount of capital to this year's plan exclusively dedicated to keeping our highest spec equipment and simulcast spreads running through the end of the year and into 2023.
Additionally, we are adding a modest amount of capital to this year's plan exclusively dedicated to keeping our high spec equipment and simulcast spreads running through the end of the year and into 2023.
As at the most recent data over 88000 jobs are now vacant and available in Alberta, which is approximately 30% growth in job vacancies since April last year.
Operating faster and more efficiently has never been more important.
Operating faster and more efficiently has never been more important.
<unk> nine shows our large presence and affordable and self regulated markets with Alberta, and Saskatchewan, representing 62, 4% and 10, 4% of our portfolio boardwalks current mark to market, which includes the reduction of incentives averages $145 per month in <unk>.
Therefore in order to take care in order to maintain our industry, leading operational edge. We are taking a proactive approach to retaining the high quality equipment and crews necessary to generate our leading efficiencies.
Therefore in order to take care in order to maintain our industry, leading operational edge. We are taking a proactive approach to retain our high quality equipment and crews necessary to generate our leading efficiencies.
Just like our original budget the capital spend is weighted to the first half of the year.
Just like our original budget the capital spend is weighted to the first half of the year.
<unk>, two a significant $55 million revenue opportunity.
We will spend approximately 60% of our capital in the first two quarters on high working interest long lateral development.
We will spend approximately 60% of our capital in the first two quarters on high working interest long lateral development.
Slide 10, our market and portfolio provides some of the most affordable rents in Canada when comparing to average income. In addition average projected population growth in our markets are outpacing new supply leading to strong apartment rental housing market fundamentals.
These wells will come online later in the second quarter and early in the third quarter, increasing our production in the back half of the year.
These wells will come online later in the second quarter and early in the third quarter, increasing our production in the back half of the year.
In the second half, we will shift to lower working interest developments, including the BC montney to spend the remaining 40%.
In the second half, we will shift to lower working interest developments, including the BC montney to spend the remaining 40%.
Think about our program of 60% of the capital in the first half with 60% of the wells coming online in the second half.
Think about our program of 60% of the capital in the first half with 60% of the wells coming online in the second half.
Our available supply and affordability are a great opportunity for new and existing Canadians looking for a new affordable place to call home.
This capital and production profile is unchanged from our original budget.
This capital and production profile is unchanged from our original budget.
At the end of the day. This revised plan still represents an industry, leading capital program and reflects approximately 12% of incremental inflation compared to last year's results.
At the end of the day. This revised plan still represents an industry, leading capital program and reflects approximately 12% of incremental inflation compared to last year's results.
CTV National News on Sunday also reported that Alberta now has the most affordable gasoline prices at $1 61, the leader as of last Sunday.
We have also updated our full year oil and condensate production guidance to 180 to 185000 barrels per day.
We have also updated our full year oil and condensate production guidance to 180 to 185000 barrels per day.
Slide 11 shows our retention continues to increase with our lower move outs and stronger move ins leading to occupancy gains.
A modest 1% lower at the midpoint than our original guide.
A modest 1% lower at the midpoint than our original guide.
This is the result of a combination of higher royalty rates in Canada tied to higher commodity prices.
This is the result of a combination of higher royalty rates in Canada tied to higher commodity prices.
With decreasing turnovers and a rising occupancy of approximately 96, 6%.
Weather impacts in the first half of the year and some minor sand logistics delays that pushed back first quarter turned in lines timing in the Permian.
Weather impacts in the first half of the year and some minor sand logistics delays that pushed back first quarter turned in lines timing in the Permian.
As per our appendix slide 32.
We are seeing more move ins from out of town has more existing and new Canadians move to Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Our 2022 program continues to rank top tier amongst peers, whether you look at it on a dollar per Boe basis or on a dollar per barrel of crude and condensate.
Our 2022 program continues to rank top tier amongst peers, whether you look at it on a dollar per Boe basis or on a dollar per barrel of crude and condensate.
Slide 12 shows our key operational metrics with actual occupancy of approximately 96, 6% incentives continued to drop occupied rent continues to increase with vacancy loss increasing slightly in the slower winter season still resulting.
Our proven track record of industry, leading efficiencies and strong culture of innovation are differentiating in today's volatile commodity and macroeconomic environment.
Our proven track record of industry, leading efficiencies and strong culture of innovation are differentiating in today's volatile commodity and macroeconomic environment.
The implementation of our new Permian onsite wet sand storage system last quarter is a perfect example of our innovation in action to quickly adapt to today's supply chain and logistics volatility.
The implementation of our new Permian onsite wet sand storage system last quarter is a perfect example of our innovation in action to quickly adapt to today's supply chain and logistics volatility.
And an increase in revenue this quarter versus last year.
Slide 13 shows continual improvement and net rental rates new lease over lease rates are now positive our total portfolio of new and renewal leases are climbing higher year over year, we have seen a significant improvement with restrictions easing and favorable.
In order to overcome sand hauling delays that we're experiencing we applied a new approach to San storage on site.
In order to overcome sand hauling delays that we're experiencing we applied a new approach to San storage on site.
This resulted in a new completion efficiency pace setter for the company.
This resulted in a new completion efficiency pace setter for the company.
By combining the use of Sangamo Frac operations are local sand mine sourcing and this new system.
By combining the use of Sangamo Frac operations are local sand mine sourcing and this new system.
We completed over 5400 feet of lateral and pumped over 16 million pounds of sand in a single day.
We completed over 5400 feet of lateral and pumped over 16 million pounds of sand in a single day.
<unk> fundamentals, we are seeing growing strength in our apartment rental fundamentals positioning us to capture a significant mark to market opportunity.
This new approach effectively reduces sand hauling is the critical path for efficient completion operations.
This new approach effectively reduces sand hauling is the critical path for efficient completion operations.
In the Anadarko, we successfully delivered a very high completion efficiency as well and brought on line for $10 excuse me 415000 foot laterals, which are some of the longest laterals drilled to date in Oklahoma.
In the Anadarko, we successfully delivered a very high completion efficiency as well and brought on line four turns out excuse me 415000 foot laterals, which are some of the longest laterals drilled to date in Oklahoma.
We would like to now pass the call on to Lisa manage who will provide us with an overview of our portfolio performance operating margins balance sheet and repositioning results Lisa.
Finally, we continue to set records in the Montney this past quarter, we drilled our fastest pipestone well ever with an average drilling speed of over 20 150 feet per day. We've also started receiving some of our permits from British Columbia, and resume drilling and completion operations.
Finally, we continue to set records in the Montney this past quarter, we drilled our fastest pipe stonewall ever with an average drilling speed of over 20 150 feet per day. We've also started receiving some of our permits from British Columbia, and resume drilling and completion operations.
Thank you Sam moving to slide 14, as compared to Q4 2021 revenue growth for Q1 2022 was flat.
Similar to Q4 Q1 is a historical slower season.
In addition, Q1 2022 was impacted by a colder than usual winter and the omicron variance.
Although reducing well cost in today's environment will be difficult our mentality of never being satisfied with today's operational execution and continuing to achieve pacesetter performance will be foundational for achieving lower costs in the future.
Although reducing well cost in today's environment will be difficult our mentality of never being satisfied with today's operational execution and continuing to achieve pacesetter performance will be foundational for achieving lower costs in the future.
As compared to Q1 2021 same property revenue grew by two 1% looking at future quarters. The trust expect positive sequential revenue growth driven by increased occupancy and increasing net rental rates as previously highlighted by Sam.
Okay.
Okay.
I also want to provide you an update on our successful transition to longer laterals across our portfolio and especially in the Permian.
I also want to provide you an update on our successful transition to longer laterals across our portfolio and especially in the Permian.
For Q1 2022 same property net operating income increased by one 2% as compared to the same period in the prior year.
Longer laterals, we're one of the keys to our capital efficiency.
Longer laterals, we're one of the keys to our capital efficiency.
Our first quarter Permian wells averaged just over 14300 feet a new record.
Our first quarter Permian wells averaged just over 14300 feet a new record.
Positive revenue growth was offset by an increase in operating expenses largely the result of increased utility costs.
In addition to drilling and completion operational execution, we've been successful in enhancing our production in artificial lift techniques to effectively produce these longer lateral wells.
In addition to drilling and completion operational execution, we've been successful at enhancing our production in artificial lift techniques to effectively produce these longer lateral wells.
Just use as fixed price contracts to balanced commodity price volatility. However is not 100% hedged and also experienced increased utility consumption in Q1 2022 as compared to the prior year.
This has resulted in consistent normalized production rates across our acreage position.
This has resulted in consistent normalized production rates across our acreage position.
I'll now turn the call over to Corey.
I'll now turn the call over to Corey.
During Q1 2022 with the province of Saskatchewan received a large credit from favorable restructuring of its cable and Internet program with the Saskatchewan provider. This led to a decrease in operating expenses when compared to Q1 2021.
Thanks, Greg.
Thanks, Greg.
Greg's team is doing to combat cost inflation across the board and the outstanding efforts of our marketing team to secure market access and diversity for our products is translating into significant margin expansion.
Greg's team is doing to combat cost inflation across the board and the outstanding efforts of our marketing team to secure market access and diversity for our products is translating into significant margin expansion.
Year over year, we saw about 90%, so higher commodity prices preserved as margin expansion before hedges.
Year over year, we saw about 90% for higher commodity prices preserved as margin expansion before hedges.
On slide 15, consistent with prior years. The trust remained disciplined and focused on managing controllable expenses. Despite increases in non controllable costs, resulting in margin improvement of 50 basis points in 2021.
Our first quarter average unhedged realized price for the for oil and condensate was 99% of <unk>, while our unhedged realized natural gas price was 94% of the Nymex benchmark a realizable margin has also increased to 70% from 61%. This time last year. This margin includes our G&A and opera.
Our first quarter average unhedged realized price for the for oil and condensate was 99% of <unk>, while our unhedged realized natural gas price was 94% of the Nymex benchmark a realizable margin has also increased to 70% from 61% at this time last year. This margin includes our G&A and opera.
Trust remains focused on managing controllable expenses and when coupled with our revenue growth potential will allow margins to continue to improve.
Slide 16 illustrates boardwalks mortgage maturity schedule, our mortgages are well staggered with approximately 95% of our mortgage balance carrying any insurance through the Canada mortgage and housing Corporation.
<unk> costs and underpins the efforts, we've been making to not only capture but increased margins in our business the blocking and tackling we're doing across the business to drive margins and cash flows increasing our financial strength and accelerating our pace of debt reduction these structural enhancements deliver growing shareholder value in the form of a sustainable and increasing.
Getting costs and underpins the efforts, we've been making to not only capture but increased margins in our business the blocking and tackling we're doing across the business to drive margins and cash flows increasing our financial strength and accelerating our pace of debt reduction these structural enhancements deliver growing shareholder value in the form of a sustainable and increasing.
This insurance remains in effect for the full amortization of the mortgage and in addition to carrying the government of Canada backing provides access to financing at rates lower than conventional mortgages with the current estimated five year <unk> rate of three 7%.
Base dividend and a doubling of shareholder returns later this year.
Base dividend and a doubling of shareholder returns later this year.
As I mentioned, our financial strength continues to improve at a rapid pace since the end of the quarter. We've seen the reversal of some working capital items and as of the end of April we had a cash balance of approximately 680 million, taking net debt down by about 400 million to $4 1 billion. This.
As I mentioned, our financial strength continues to improve at a rapid pace since the end of the quarter. We've seen the reversal of some working capital items and as of the end of April we had a cash balance of approximately 680 million, taking net debt down by about 400 million to $4 1 billion. This.
During the months of March and April and continuing to today bond yields have increased resulting in current interest rates above the trust maturing rates. However, the trust maturity curve remains staggered reducing the renewal amount in any particular year. Despite increases in interest rates mortgage financing continues to be a low cost of capital available to the trial.
This represents a reduction of more than $3 billion or more than 40% from the second quarter of 2020 the rate of change has been impressive.
This represents a reduction of more than $3 billion or more than 40% from the second quarter of 2020 the rate of change has been impressive.
Slide 17 summarizes our 2022 mortgage maturities to date, we have renewed or forward locked approximately 16% over 2022 mortgage maturities as well as secured $147 9 million in new financing, which included converting our construction loan on breo to assume EMC insured mortgage.
We are investment grade rated by all four rating agencies, we recently renewed and extended our credit facilities out to July of 2026, and with the redemption of our 2024 nodes our debt maturity ladder is very attractively positioned.
We are investment grade rated by all four rating agencies, we recently renewed and extended our credit facilities out to July of 2026, and with the redemption of our 2024 nodes our debt maturity ladder is very attractively positioned.
While we expect to reach our $3 billion net debt target in the third quarter of the year, we don't see this as a stopping point for debt reduction where.
While we expect to reach our $3 billion net debt target in the third quarter of the year, we don't see this as a stopping point for debt reduction.
As well as new financing related to our acquisitions.
<unk> underwriting criteria and our most recent submission to CNBC and our lenders has remained in line with our historically conservative estimates.
We are taking a prudent approach to managing our balance sheet and we see continued benefit to the organization from further deleveraging.
We are taking a prudent approach to managing our balance sheet and we see continued benefit to the organization from further deleveraging.
Moving to the right of the slide we provide a summary of boardwalks available liquidity. The trust is well positioned with approximately $56 million in cash and subsequently funded financing as well as an undrawn $199 million operating lines.
Highly cognizant of the ongoing need for resiliency in our business and we are committed to preserving our financial strength over the long term.
Highly cognizant of the ongoing need for resiliency in our business and we are committed to preserving our financial strength over the long term.
I'll now turn the call back to Brendan Thanks Corey.
I'll now turn the call back to Brendan.
Thanks Corey.
We believe we have a responsibility to reduce our environmental impact, while we produce safe reliable and secure supply of the products that make modern life possible.
We believe we have a responsibility to reduce our environmental impact, while we produce safe reliable and secure supply of the products that make modern life possible yes.
This approximate $256 million in liquidity provides the trust with the flexible financial position.
Slide 18, the trust debt metrics continue to improve with an interest coverage of $2 99 in the current quarter. This continuous improvement is the result of strong financial performance led by cash flow growth.
Yesterday, we published our 18th consecutive sustainability report, which showcases how the efforts of our team are delivering strong results across our key performance metrics I'll take a moment to cover a few of the highlights we dropped our DHT emissions by 24%.
Yesterday, we published our 18th consecutive sustainability report, which showcases how the efforts of our team are delivering strong results across our key performance metrics I'll take a moment to cover a few of the highlights we dropped our DHT emissions by 24%.
Slide 19 illustrates the trusts estimated fair value of its investment properties, excluding adjustments for <unk> 16, which totaled $6 6 billion as at March 31, 2022, as compared to $6 4 billion as at December 31, 2021.
We have now lowered our methane emissions by 50%.
We have now lowered our methane emissions by 50% and we.
And we fully eliminated routine flaring and we reduced total flaring and venting by 43% our spill intensity is down by 25% and we are very proud to have recorded our eighth safest year ever.
We fully eliminated routine flaring and we reduced total flaring and venting by 43% our spill intensity is down by 25% and we are very proud to have recorded our eighth safest year ever.
The slight increase in overall fair value is the result of increases in market rents at select sites and communities as market fundamentals improve current estimated fair value of approximately 193000 per door remains well below replacement cost.
We believe that everyday presents an opportunity to innovate and make improvements our high standards for ESG performance have been embraced by our teams and are a key element of our commitment to operational excellence.
We believe that everyday presents an opportunity to innovate and make improvements our high standards for ESG performance have been embraced by our teams and are a key element of our commitment to operational excellence.
Slide 20 provides a summary of the recycling of cash flow towards value add improvements to date, we have completed approximately 28% of total suite improvements, we're aiming to complete 53% of our total portfolio common areas and amenity spaces by the end of fiscal 2022.
We're delivering on every aspect of our strategy, we continue to reduce net debt drive efficiency gains generate significant free cash flow deliver superior returns on our capital invested and return significant cash to our shareholders, all while making meaningful ESG progress.
We're delivering on every aspect of our strategy, we continue to reduce net debt drive efficiency gains generate significant free cash flow deliver superior returns on our capital invested and returned significant cash to our shareholders, all while making meaningful ESG progress the.
Our focus is to continue to deliver the best products optimizing our capital allocation for our value add program to our targeted resident member demographic. So we can continue to provide the most exceptional elevated experience at an affordable price.
The competitiveness of our multi basin multi product portfolio and the agility of our operations offer offer multiple pathways to deliver the best corporate outcomes and drive those superior returns.
The competitiveness of our multi basin multi product portfolio and the agility of our operations offer offer multiple pathways to deliver the best corporate outcomes and drive those superior returns.
<unk> increased market demands exceptional value and appealing returns with sustainable market rent adjustments.
One of the most efficient operators and we are intensely focused on making sure that this capability translates into value for our shareholders.
One of the most efficient operators and we are intensely focused on making sure that this capability translates into value for our shareholders.
Slide 21 illustrates our stabilized renovation return for Beddington court located in Calgary, Alberta, with a return of 13%, which exceeded our internal hurdle rate of 8%. In addition, this asset was awarded the 2021 building of the year for under 100 units, but the Calgary residential rental Association.
With the latest increase to our base dividend and the upcoming doubling of direct shareholder returns. We are set to return $1 billion of cash directly to our shareholders. This year. This.
With the latest increase to our base dividend and the upcoming doubling of direct shareholder returns. We are set to return $1 billion of cash directly to our shareholders. This year. This.
This represents a compelling cash return yield for our investors and we see this growing substantially as we look into 2023 or.
This represents a compelling cash return yield for our investors and we see this growing substantially as we look into 'twenty to 'twenty three.
Our renovations continue to garner positive resident member testimonials, driving referrals and higher occupancy I would now like to turn the call to <unk> to discuss our acquisitions and development Rick.
Our performance is the result of a world class team of high quality portfolio of assets.
Our performance is the result of a world class team of high quality portfolio of assets.
<unk> culture of innovation teamwork and discipline.
Thank you Lisa year to date Boardwalk has opportunistically invested $117 5 million to acquire two communities highlighted on slide 22.
<unk> culture of innovation teamwork and discipline.
This concludes our prepared remarks, operator, we're now prepared to take questions.
This concludes our prepared remarks, operator, we're now prepared to take questions.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a <unk>.
The peak as states and can more an art Glenn place in Brampton, where acquired in Q1 2022 and are performing in line with our expectations Kenmore located in Alberta is a very tight rental market and as unregulated similar to our nearby bounce properties are again places.
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One moment for your first question.
Located near our forty-five railroad property and will help us improve our operating efficiencies in advance of the lease up of our new property user.
Your first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Your first question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning team and thanks for the update here I wanted to start on the inflation point.
Good morning team and thanks for the update here I wanted to start on the inflation point.
These acquisitions were financed with $79 4 million in debt at 3% interest rate.
Can you just breakdown how much of that is due to materials versus equipment versus labor and as you think about 'twenty three recognizing we're still over six months away, but how much of the inflationary forces that we're seeing this year.
Can you just breakdown how much of that is due.
<unk> materials versus equipment versus labor and as you think about 'twenty, three recognizing which there's still over six months away, but how much of that inflationary forces that we're seeing this year carry intake to forward years in your view of normalized.
The trust continue continues to be active in sourcing accretive and opportunistic opportunities to expand.
Slide 23 provides a brief update on our active development pipeline.
Gary intake to forward years, and you'll be normalized.
Our Brampton development continues to progress on time and on budget with anticipated delivery of the first hour of the 365 unit Marquis community in Q4 2022.
Yes. Thanks, Neil So obviously this is a space where we've done a lot of work recently.
Yes. Thanks, Neil So obviously this is a space where we've done a lot of work recently.
Really the majority of the inflation that we're pointing to today is in the categories that you just mentioned there so steel fuel trucking and labor those are the pieces that are showing up and resulting in the increased capital guidance that you see today.
Really the majority of the inflation that we're pointing to today is in the categories that you just mentioned there so steel fuel trucking and labor those are the pieces that are showing up and resulting in the increased capital guidance that you see today.
Our aspire development.
Is directly adjacent to our Aurora acquisition in Victoria, and now has an approved development permit we continue to progress on entitlement at our second development in the Victoria area named the Marin our expected expectations for yield and cap rate remained unchanged.
No.
We came into the year with high confidence that we can offset over 10%.
We came into the year with high confidence that we can offset over 10%.
Inflation with the efficiency gains that we saw occurring in the business.
Inflation with the efficiency gains that we saw occurring in the business.
We have removed conditions on another development site in Victoria, which will provide an opportunity to develop another estimated 250 units.
As a result, we were the only E&P that didnt Bacon and increase year over year in capital and we successfully offset that inflation in the first quarter here and really what we're seeing is the higher commodity prices.
As a result, we were the only E&P that didnt Bacon and increase year over year in capital and we've successfully offset that inflation in the first quarter here and really what we're seeing is the higher commodity prices.
I would like to now turn the call over to James Hall.
Thank you Rick.
Slide 24 provides our stakeholders with our current and relative view on sources and uses of capital from a source standpoint, we believe that our growing internally generated cash flow property mortgage financing as well as equity from noncore asset dispositions currently represent the most attractive sources of capital for opportunities that arise.
Than our original guidance and the global impacts and the supply chain.
Than our original guidance and the global impacts and the supply chain.
Or just setting inflationary pressure higher in those categories steel fuel trucking and labor than we had anticipated and so that's been the big driver I think as you look out through the rest of the year into 2023, it's obviously a bit early to make any sort of call on 2023, but clearly what we've tried to do is get out ahead of it and be very.
Or just setting inflationary pressure higher in those categories steel fuel trucking and labor than we had anticipated and so that's been the big driver I think as you look out through the rest of the year into 2023, it's obviously a bit early to make any sort of call on 2023, but clearly what we've tried to do is get out ahead of it and be very.
These capital sources can be used to fund accretive opportunities such as our continued focus on platform innovation, our value add capital improvement program, New development opportunistic acquisitions and the investment in our own high quality portfolio at a discount to intrinsic value through our normal course issuer bid in.
Apparent with the market on how we see it unfolding over the rest of the year.
Apparent with the market on how we see it unfolding over the rest of the year.
Okay. That's good perspective.
Okay. That's good perspective.
Second is a little bit related to the catalyst path for the stock.
Second is a little bit related to the catalyst path for the stock.
In the last five days, we've seen quite a drawdown in the share price.
In the last five days, we've seen it quite a drawdown in the share price.
In the first quarter Boardwalk purchased and canceled 137500 trust units at a volume weighted average price of $55 25.
If basis, that's been a very good last couple of years. So just talk about when you see yourself in a position to get more aggressive around share repurchases at the great Valley.
To date that that's been a very good last couple of years. So just talk about when you see yourself in a position to get more aggressive around share repurchases at Green Valley.
Since the reintroduction of our N CIB in November of 2021, Boardwalk has invested $31 6 million in buybacks and view this investment as an attractive use of proceeds from recent noncore asset sales.
Uhm dislocation I think it's when you get to that $3 billion of net debt and then also any update around that.
Uhm dislocation I think it's when you get to that $3 billion of net debt and then also any update around that.
Key inclusion that could increase generalist interest in the story okay. Thanks again.
Key inclusion that could.
Our team will continue to update our view of capital sources and uses on a regular basis and as market conditions change.
<unk> generally interested in the story okay. Thanks again.
Yes, thanks Neil.
Yes, thanks Neil.
Slide 25 provides detail on the exceptional value that boardwalks current trust units represent.
So so clearly we don't control the valuation directly but what we do control of course is our strategy capital allocation and our execution.
So so clearly we don't control the valuation directly but what we do control of course is our strategy capital allocation and our execution.
Our current trading price implies a value of approximately 164000 per apartment door and compares favorably to recent apartment market transactions.
And so that's why we've taken a fair bit of time today to outline the value proposition that is firmly intact here, we're delivering more free cash flow more cash returns than what we guided to in February .
And so that's why we've taken a fair bit of time today to outline the value proposition that is firmly intact here, we're delivering more free cash flow more cash returns than what we guided to in February .
Our <unk> of over $68 per trust unit equating to 193000 per apartment door represents an exceptional opportunity relative to market pricing and remains well below the increasing cost of replacement.
Some 80% of the price increases flowing directly through to our free cash flow into shareholder returns.
Some 80% of the price increases flowing directly through to our free cash flow into shareholder returns.
Utilizing trailing 12 month property NOI on slide 26, boardwalks current trading price equates to an attractive five 1% cap rate on trailing NOI and is a significant spread to the current cost of available mortgage capitals as well as recent capitalization rates seen in transactions in our markets.
That's a metric we keep a close eye on.
And that's a metric we keep a close eye on.
I think the $1 billion of cash return that we've outlined this year as you look out into 2023 is set to be.
I think the $1 billion of cash return that we've outlined this year as you look out into 2023 is set to be.
Well in excess of $2 billion as we look out into 2023, if prices hold and so we're pretty excited about that and we're excited about what that means for the value proposition for shareholders and the valuation of the equity.
Well in excess of $2 billion as we look out into 2023, if prices hold and so we're pretty excited about that and we're excited about what that means for the value proposition for shareholders and the valuation of the equity.
With a strong outlook to our leasing trends into the spring and summer months and NOI growth in our portfolio through inflationary expenses. This cap rate represents an attractive option and the potential for the trust to continue to invest in our own high quality portfolio.
Just quickly on the S&P.
Just quickly on the S&P.
<unk> continues to be one that we're keeping an eye on we don't control inclusion.
This continues to be one that we're keeping an eye on we don't control inclusion.
Slide 27 provides a review of our 2022 expectations and guidance.
At all directly but.
It all directly but.
But obviously.
But obviously.
We'll need another quarter under our belts to get positive earnings back after the Mark to Mark loss impact in the current quarter.
We'll need another quarter under our belt to get a positive earnings back after the mark to Mark loss impact in the current quarter.
Since the introduction of our 2022 guidance in February we have seen a significant increase in both interest cost and utility prices and have adjusted our estimates for the balance of the year to reflect these increased non controllable costs.
Your next question comes from Neal Dingmann with <unk> Securities. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Neal Dingmann with <unk> Securities. Please go ahead.
Good morning, maybe just a follow on maybe a question for Greg on what that's in place and logistics.
Good morning, maybe just a.
Summarize the trust is anticipating same property NOI growth of between two and 5% in <unk> per unit performance of between $2 95, and $3 15 per Trust unit.
A follow on maybe a question for Greg on what that's in place and logistics.
A little bit with Neil it's just that.
Little bit with Neil it's worth asking Greg.
Can you speak to your future contracts I know you guys.
I'll speak to your future contracts I know you guys.
When we met you guys continued a great job there and I guess my main question is maybe not just on the in place, but more on logistics given you all are running that type of program.
When we met you guys continued a great job there and I guess my main question is maybe not just on the in place, but more on logistics given you are running that type of program.
This tweak an increased range and our estimate for <unk> growth is being is being utilized given the volatility we've seen in interest rates.
Our boardwalk team is committed to leading in transparency and we will continue to update our stakeholders in the event of any change in conditions that may materially impact our forecast.
Permian and two rigs in the other three areas.
Permian and two rigs in the other three areas.
It's obviously always more challenging logistics, when you're trying to time completions and different things. So I'm. Just wondering is it just longer term contract give you about.
It's obviously always more challenging logistics, when you're trying to time completions in <unk>.
<unk>. So I'm just wondering is it just longer term contract.
On slide 28, and following our previously announced 8% increase in our distribution our monthly cash distribution of $1 eight per trust unit on an annualized basis has been declared for the next three months as shown on this slide.
And you both.
Again, either rigs and Frac. It gives you the confidence of that or.
Again, either rigs and Frac that gives you the confidence of that or what are you all able to do to ensure more on the timing that these things get <unk>.
What are you all able to do to ensure more on the timing that these things get completed.
The trust continues to have an industry low payout ratio, providing significant cash flow reinvestment positioning boardwalk with ample capital for growth.
<unk>.
Thanks, Don.
Thanks.
Road.
Road.
Neil Thanks for your question and that is something we spend a lot of time working on and that's why one of the reasons. We updated our guidance. This quarter was we find to be very important to secure the high quality equipment and crews that we need to execute on our programs. We do think our ability to execute as one of our differentiating.
Neil Thanks for your question and that is something we spend a lot of time working on and that's why one of the reasons. We updated our guidance. This quarter was we find it to be very important to secure the high quality equipment and crews that we need to execute on our programs. We do think our ability to execute as one of our differentiating.
As we continue to grow our free cash flow our distributions will continue continue to grow alongside.
Lastly on slide 29, we have published our third annual ESG report that highlights and celebrates our team our residents and our community contributions to our collective environmental sustainable and govern in schools.
Characteristics and so we have long standing relationships with our suppliers of both steel and of the rigs and the crews that we use and we enter into a variety of different types of contracts to ensure we have access to to those crews.
Characteristics and so we have long standing relationships with our suppliers of both steel and of the rigs and the crews that we use and we enter into a variety of different types of contracts to ensure we have access to those crews.
Our ESG report along with all our financial reports can be found on our website at <unk> Dot com slash investors.
This concludes the formal portion of our presentation and would now like to open up the phone line for questions Miranda.
As we've talked previously we've worked real hard to take the white space out of the schedule.
We've talked previously we've worked real hard to take the white space out of the schedule.
Yes.
But what that means in a year like this where we are continuing to get more and more efficient we create a little bit of white space towards the end of the year and that's why we make sure that we have got the activity in the contracts in place to secure that equipment for next year.
What that means in a year like this where we are continuing to get more and more efficient we create a little bit of white space towards the end of the year and that's why we make sure that we have got the activity in the contracts in place to secure that equipment for next year.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now be.
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So we feel like we have the crews we need the equipment we need.
So we feel like we have the crews we need the equipment, we need and we're working to ensure that all of that is working together to deliver this year's program and set us up well for 'twenty three.
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We're working to ensure that all of that is working together to deliver this year's program and set us up well for 'twenty three.
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Neil just before you go to your follow up to that point I'd just add to Greg. There is in addition to being well positioned with the equipment crews and materials, we need for the year that it gives us the confidence I just wanted to pick up another point, Greg made in the prepared remarks that you don't want.
Neil just before you go to the your follow up to that.
One moment for your first question.
Point I'd just add to Greg There is in addition to being well positioned with the equipment crews and materials, we need for the year that it gives us the confidence I just wanted to pick up another point, Greg made in the prepared remarks that you know.
Your first question is going to be coming from Jonathan culture with TD Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks.
Thanks, Good morning.
On a percentage basis, we've got 60% of our turn in lines coming in the second half of the year, which is really what's going to drive that higher production profile in the back half of the year and so that's really what's giving us the high confidence on that delivery.
On a percentage basis, we've got 60% of our turn in lines coming in the second half of the year, which is really what's going to drive that higher production profile in the back half of the year and so that's really what's giving us the high confidence on that delivery.
First first question just on Edmonton, Sam you spend a little bit of time in your prepared remarks talking about it.
What how can we sort of think about the sort of progression of occupancy.
Yeah, that's a great add on and then maybe just my follow up maybe for you.
Yes, right Ed.
In that market over the next couple of quarters.
And then maybe just my follow up maybe for Europe .
So Jonathan last month, our vacancy started out at seven ended up at five.
Mostly I'm just wondering on natural gas opportunities specifically can you speak to I was looking at your slide 23 that shows some of the details on the Permian and Montney ERP and then you. Obviously also have great opportunities with Anadarko gas I'm just wondering if you could talk about.
I'm just wondering on natural gas opportunities.
Can you speak to I was looking at your slide 23 that shows some of the details on the Permian and Montney ERP and then you obviously.
2% this month.
Our rentals over move outs are on track to drop another 2%.
Also have great opportunities with the Anadarko gas. So I'm just wondering if you could talk about potential future opportunities around where you can go with wet gas given.
And June is just as strong as a month as may so that will get us to one or 2% vacancy by the end of June on availability.
Future just opportunities around where you can go with wet gas given your.
Our portfolio.
Portfolio.
Yeah, absolutely so as we see.
Yeah, absolutely so as we sit here today, we are a very large gas producer at a b and a half a day and the good news is we're seeing high prices across all our products gas NGL and oil.
Sit here today, we are a very large gas producer at a b and a half a day and the good news is we're seeing high prices across all our products gas NGL and oil.
It takes a month for residents to move in so rentals that we are making right now typically move in at the end of the month and next month and so we will have a very high occupancy.
In 2022, our allocation between the assets is not changing so we're maintaining production.
In 2022, our allocation between the assets is not changing so we're maintaining production year over year in each of the products but.
Year over year in each of the products.
But we do have to your to your point a huge inventory of very high return gas.
But we do have to your to your point a huge inventory of very high return gas.
We haven't seen in a while.
Our entire portfolio because the only real vacancy we have lapped it.
And we think that's going to be very valuable in the future. We're quite encouraged by the long term gas fundamentals.
And we think thats going to be very valuable in the future. We're quite encouraged by the long term gas fundamentals.
Edmonton.
And that will that will get us up above the 97 to the 98%.
It's a bit early to set any expectations for 2023, but.
It's a bit early to set any expectations for 2023, but really when we when we set that allocation will be optimizing for for what program maximizes our cash flow and our free cash flow generation. So it's great to have that gas option within the portfolio.
Total occupancy.
Really when we when we set that allocation will be optimizing for for what program maximizes our cash flow and our free cash flow generation. So it's great to have that gas option within the portfolio.
Okay.
That sounds good and then I guess the sort of related question is what is that once you do get up there.
You can start to push a little bit on on renewals and you are getting good traction now.
No.
No.
Interesting to see thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
But how how high.
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Doug Leggate with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Do you think they can go do you think you can get six 7% and in Alberta.
We are getting data already in southern Alberta, we're getting higher actually on new leases in southern Alberta, and Saskatchewan, where getting inflationary increases.
Thanks, Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.
Thanks, Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions.
Good morning so.
Good morning so.
Guys I wonder if I could start with the sustaining capital question, obviously the inflation.
Guys I wonder if I could start with the sustaining capital question, obviously the inflation.
Between 7% to 9%.
I think you've probably been more.
I think.
<unk> been more.
On new leases on our existing renewals.
How can I say realistic or at least candid about what youre seeing in your and your.
How can I say realistic or at least candid about what youre seeing in your.
We are seeing a slight move up from 4% to 6% to <unk>.
Numbers going forward, but I guess to pick up in the earlier question.
Numbers going forward, but I guess to pick up and the other question.
Is this should we think of this as a new level of sustaining capital or would you expect some relief as you all saw that model. Some other additional changes as you look into 2023.
Is this should we think of this as a new level of sustaining capital or would you expect some relief as you all know that model. Some other additional changes as you look into 2023.
Five 7% and so we're.
Yes, we are seeing.
More inflationary reflected increases of about.
7% seven 8%.
And I guess my follow up is related.
And I guess my follow up is related.
Your exit rate in the second half of the year. The range suggests youre going to be in the 190 piece. It looks like what does that look like going into.
Your exit rate in the second half of the year. The range suggests youre going to be in the 190 is it looks like well what does that look like going into.
Okay.
That's helpful I'll turn it back thanks.
Thank you.
Your next question will be coming from JD mall with BMO. Please go ahead.
2023 does not rule over again back into your 180 185 range or does it maintain it I cannot level I'm just trying to understand what's in the plan and I'll leave it there. Thanks.
2023 does not rule over again back into your 180 185 range or does it maintain at that kind of level I'm just trying to understand what's in the plan and I'll leave it there. Thanks.
Okay.
Wondering if you could talk a little bit about that.
Yes, Thanks, Doug appreciate the question first.
Yeah. Thanks, Doug appreciate the question first on the sustaining capital I think.
Gration to Alberta, and what it's driving improved rental demand.
First on the sustaining capital I think really what we're seeing is of course, it's going to depend a little bit on the commodity price environment and the activity level that we're seeing in 2023 and beyond is to set that sustaining capital I think if prices stay where they are today.
Really what we're seeing is of course, it's going to depend a little bit on the commodity price environment and the activity level that we're seeing in 2023 and beyond is to set that sustaining capital I think if prices stay where they are today.
Different natures pool and cowboy versus Edwin.
Lot of people.
People from Ontario, and BC moving into Alberta offer a lower cost of living and.
How much of it is from international integration, how much of it is sort of natural increases in demand in the local market.
Our 2022 capital guide as a good jumping off point for that sustaining capital in 'twenty, three and obviously if prices pull back into the mid cycle range. Then we would fully expect the sustaining capital would pull back down to that one 5 billion level. So.
Our 2022 capital guide as a good jumping off point for that sustaining capital in 'twenty, three and obviously if prices pull back into the mid cycle range. Then we would fully expect the sustaining capital would pull back down to that one 5 billion level. So.
Thank you Jenny.
Seeing.
A lot of folks from Toronto as published by our local Calgary Herald newspaper.
That is in discussion with Realtors and builders.
I think that's how we're thinking about it Doug and I think thats.
I think that's how we're thinking about it Doug and I think thats.
At our that are seeing more folks move from Toronto to Calgary and Edmonton and.
A good place to jump off of for 2023.
A good place to jump off of for 2023.
On your question around production trajectory into next year.
On your question around production trajectory into next year.
So we continue to see strong.
I think really what we would think about is if we wanted to be in maintenance mode again in 2023.
I think really what we think about is if we wanted to be in maintenance mode. Again in 2023, we'd look to be flat year over year on production, so not necessarily hang on to that high exit rate, but.
Sales in the multiple listing that's current and daily in Calgary and monthly in Edmonton in Edmonton very similar to Calgary.
Look to be flat year over year on production, so not necessarily hanging on to that high exit rate, but.
And we're also now seeing a lot more international migraine migrants.
Really what we do is think about what the best capital allocation and return option is once we get there.
Really what we do is think about what the best capital allocation and return option is once we get there.
We are receiving our Ukrainian refugees.
Okay I appreciate the answers guys. Thank you.
Okay I appreciate the answers guys. Thank you.
Yes. Thank you.
Thank you.
And that.
Your next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Jeanine Wai with Barclays. Please go ahead.
That's starting to increase in pick up because of the international travel restrictions and the.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.
Hi, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions.
The first question. Good morning. My first question is on cash returns one of our favorite subject.
The application process is improving it still still needs to be improved and the speed of processing international migrants.
Our next question. Good morning. My first question is on cash returns one of our favorite subject youre, increasing to the 50% payout in October which is great and.
Increasing to the 50% payout in October which is great and maybe just.
On our numbers or is there is definitely upside from there. Thank you.
On our numbers there is definitely upside from there. Thank you.
It's still challenging.
On the slower side, and so as that picks up and improves we will see a continued increase throughout the summer up international migrants as well.
Alrighty, calling that 24 notes earlier your next maturity isn't until 2006.
Already calling that 24 notes early your next maturity isn't until 2006.
Building a lot of cash in the meantime, so can you just discuss the parameters for how you decide on what the appropriate percent payout is every quarter.
Building a lot of cash in the meantime, so can you just discuss the parameters for how you decide on what the appropriate percent payout is every quarter.
And words out Edmonton is the only real significant city with vacant apartment units.
Yes, Jeanine, yes.
Yes Jeanine.
Thanks for the question I think.
For the question I think.
They won't be for long.
We like your perspective, because you are stacking upside on top of upside I mean, if you look at the trajectory.
We like your perspective, because you are stacking upside on top of upside I mean, if you look at the trajectory.
Couple of months Bacon.
They can see will essentially disappear and we will start renting turnover apartments like we are in the rest of our markets.
Overall, we're set to double that cash return from 25 to 50, but really if you think about it in the first quarter, we returned $123 million.
Overall, we're set to double that cash return from 25 to 50, but really if you think about it in the first quarter, we returned $123 million and Thats going to.
So I had mentioned is basically the new Calgary.
It is and there's a reason Edmonton is the blue collar.
And that's going to quadruple or quintuple as we look out into the fourth quarter. So actually the rate of change on cash return is really high probably accelerating as fast as anybody.
Quadruple or quintuple as we look out into the fourth quarter. So actually the rate of change on cash return is really high probably accelerating as fast as anybody.
City and and.
Hiring and activities starts in the head office and then spending then flows into the field and the workforce and so there's a lot of hiring in the workforce or discussions with with our friends and family that are in the energy sector.
And to a yield that would be leading in.
And to a yield that would be leading in.
In the peer group and obviously leading across the broader market. So we like that trajectory I think on the.
In the peer group and obviously leading across the broader market. So we like that trajectory I think on the.
The sort of process for deciding where to land on that cash return what we've steered the market to today is we're going to start at the 50.
The sort of process for deciding where to land on that cash return what we've steered the market to today is we're going to start at the 50.
<unk> a quote are hiring like crazy unquote, but the problem is it's really really difficult to find.
Corey mentioned this in his prepared remarks, we do want to see that come down below the $3 billion.
Corey mentioned this in his prepared remarks, we do want to see that come down below the $3 billion.
Find people because there is.
<unk> of workers in and so that's really the difficulty it's not jobs everybody.
But obviously, we have the opportunity and the flexibility within the framework to go higher than that 50 with time, but but we're not making that commitment today.
But obviously, we have the opportunity and the flexibility within the framework to go higher than that 50 with time, but but we're not making that.
Is creating jobs now and we're seeing that in our energy <unk>.
Commitment today.
Okay. Great. Thank you second question is maybe we can hit on scale a little bit.
Okay, great. Thank you.
<unk> as well and so there is a lot of jobs.
Second question is.
Maybe we can hit on scale a little bit.
There is some apartments still left in Edmonton not that this is a sales call or anything but.
The 25% of the 22 Capex increase that's due to maintaining the high spec rigs and the preferred frac crews eliminating the white space in a program essentially.
25% of the 22 Capex increase that's due to maintaining the high spec rigs and the preferred frac crews eliminating the white space in the program essentially.
Last that's for sure it's not lost other sat their journey. It's James in addition in Edmonton Edmonton has as we know significant postsecondary institutions as well right. So you have universe yield from Alberta, Mcewen University, we've got needs.
<unk> clearly has scale from an overall company perspective, but what you see in the current operating environment does that make you rethink.
<unk> clearly has scale from an overall company perspective, but what you see in the current operating environment does that make you rethink.
I, just think differently about scale in Utica basin. Thank you.
Think differently about scale in each of our basins. Thank you.
We've got three cohorts of students that should be coming back this summer as well and you know to Sam's point, we are anticipating a busy summer leasing season for all these students and these migrant workers and a new immigrants that are coming into the city. We also saw and welcomed a new unicorn Neo financial broke.
Yes, Thanks, Jeanine no I think when we've talked about this before I think there is a minimum level level of scale to be able to do what we do but a lot of it is what I kind of call sophistication. So once you've hit that minimum level of scale, where we where you can be in.
Yes, Thanks, Jeanine no I think when we've talked about this before I think there is a minimum level level of scale to be able to do what we do but a lot of it is what I kind of call sophistication. So once you've hit that minimum level of scale, where you can be in.
Large pad developments drill long laterals.
Large pad developments drill long laterals, and Simon Frac and use wet sand those types of real key differentiator is that we're able to do that a number of our peers arent able to do once you've hit that level of scale. It really comes down to a sophistication piece and that's why you hear us talk.
<unk> billion dollars Mark here in Calgary, and and the province of Alberta adjust released a study recommending an increase of education Institute and expansion into the empty office, which would increase the supply of educated and smart workers.
And Simon Frac and use wet sand those types of real key differentiators that we're able to do that a number of our peers arent able to do once you've hit that level of scale. It really comes down to a sophistication piece and Thats why you hear us talk a lot about focusing on this culture of innovation to be able to constant.
A lot about focusing on this culture of innovation to be able to constantly drive new and creative ways to.
Which is desperately needed by all companies, we've got a big shortage of tech workers and that really will.
We drive new and creative ways to.
Further accelerate.
Either lower costs or add to the type curves that were producing so so I think we're comfortable with the scale that we've got both as a company and across each of the each of the basins.
Either lower costs or add to the type curves that were producing so so I think we're comfortable with the scale that we've got both as a company and across each of the each of the basins.
The growth in tech that we are seeing in Alberta, and so this empty office is becoming a great opportunity.
To increase the supply of educated folks that that will naturally increase the demand.
Your next question comes from <unk> Kumar with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from <unk> Kumar with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Companies coming here to higher educated workers, a higher supply of educated workers. So.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking our questions.
Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking our questions.
I'm going to pick up on that.
I'm going to pick up on that.
Thread that Neil was talking about you have a lot of optionality within your portfolio.
Thread that Neil was talking about you have a lot of optionality within your portfolio.
Yes, we're seeing we're firing on all cylinders.
Commodity.
Commodity.
That's great.
Wanted to dig a little bit deeper because Sam you mentioned that Calgary and Edmonton are similar and certainly similar in size. But then you also alluded to Edmonton being more of a blue collar market. So would you say that for some of the I guess I would've province demand are our people.
Could you talk a little bit about whether there are opportunities for <unk> to participate in the U S. LNG market, given the 100% transportation to the Gulf Coast.
Could you talk a little bit about whether there are opportunities for <unk> to participate in the U S. LNG market, given the 100% transportation to the Gulf Coast.
Maybe.
Maybe.
Some color on the Canadian LNG market, we're seeing a lot of extended LNG prices I don't see if you can participate.
Some thoughts around the Canadian LNG market, we're seeing a lot of spend in LNG prices and I want to see if you can participate.
Choosing Edmonton over Calgary, because of a widening cost differential like they're kind of cutting to Alberta, a bit agnostic on where they go or would you say that the typical migrants to what Calgary and Edmonton.
Yes, no I appreciate the question and this is a space that we're doing a lot of work in today.
Yes, no I appreciate the question and this is a space that we're doing a lot of work in today.
Our strategy for a long time with our gas production has been to get price diversification.
Our strategy for a long time with our gas production has been to get price diversification.
Somewhat different in that Edmonton has unique drivers or was it really spillover from Calgary getting fuller and more expensive.
And you can see that today with over 80% of our Permian gas priced outside of Wahaha and about 50% of our Canadian gas priced outside of <unk>.
And you can see that today with over 80% of our Permian gas priced outside of Wahaha and about 50% of our Canadian gas priced outside of <unk>.
Debbie.
Graphic in the workforce in Edmonton, absolutely attracts more trades.
So today, we are considering options for getting that pricing exposure to LNG as part of that strategy.
So today, we are considering options for getting that pricing exposure to LNG as part of that strategy.
And labor.
Labor Force workforce.
Population demographic, where Calgary with the head office.
I would tell you probably the one thing that we would rule out would be an equity interest in an LNG project, but but certainly looking at some of the evolving commercial opportunities and to your point that could be on the west coast of Canada or off the U S Gulf coast or a combination of both and so that is something where act.
I would tell you probably the one thing that we would rule out would be an equity interest in an LNG project, but but certainly looking at some of the evolving commercial opportunities and to your point that could be on the west coast of Canada or off the U S Gulf coast or a combination of both and so that is something we're <unk>.
And in the more white collar demographic.
Attracts.
That demographic.
And yet that.
That is a result of that and also the student population is is much bigger.
Educational.
We're looking at today.
Looking at today.
Facilities and Edmonton are much bigger you have a bigger than then UFC and grant Macewan College Nate.
Okay, Great I appreciate the answer.
Okay, Great I appreciate the answer.
And I guess.
And I guess.
Maybe just to touch on cash returns as well I assume it at current levels.
Maybe just to touch on cash returns as well I assume it at current levels.
The secondary education in Edmonton is a larger.
The buyback is probably the focus but I did notice in your slides you talked about a variable dividend.
The buyback is probably the focus but I did notice in your slides you talked about a variable dividend.
Population than it is in Calgary as well joining extremes here just to add to Sams comments affordability is exceptional right in Edmonton bolt ons family home side on the rental rate side and again for those looking for that affordability looking for a little more purchasing power for that incremental dollar.
Could you talk about the thought process around how the cash return might evolve in terms of the balance between buybacks and variable dividends.
Could you talk about the thought process around how the cash return might evolve in terms of the balance between buybacks and variable dividends.
Yeah, absolutely so.
Yeah, absolutely so.
We believe like all capital allocation decisions that has to be driven by returns and value and so the board looks at this every quarter.
We believe like all capital allocation decisions it has to be driven by returns and value and so the board looks at this every quarter.
And in Calgary are quite attractive cities amongst other cities in Canada for sure.
Okay, and then looking at your debt stack.
And really we're still using the same four four criteria that we talked about from the outset. So we want to look at how the equities trading today versus our view of intrinsic at mid cycle pricing.
And really we're still using the same four four criteria that we talked about from the outset. So we want to look at how the equities trading today versus our view of intrinsic at mid cycle pricing.
Boardwalk traditionally kept a lower weighted average term on the mortgages, but we've seen rates move obviously with the spread narrowing between five year and 10 years P. M H C and giving given the outlook for interest rates are you more inclined to be longer term focused on.
We take a look at relative valuation, we study with our free cash flow yield is implying and then.
We take a look at relative valuation we study what our free cash flow yield is implying and then.
Finally, we look at the macro.
Finally, we look at the macro.
See where we're trading relative to mid cycle on just commodity prices and so today, we obviously have very high commodity prices, but we still see our equity valuation is well below intrinsic at mid cycle and so we today, we continue to see the best way to return cash is with a combination of our base dividend and buybacks.
See where we're trading relative to mid cycle on just commodity prices and so today. We obviously are very high commodity prices, but we still see our equity valuation is well below intrinsic at mid cycle and so today, we continue to see the best way to return cash is with a combination of our base dividend and buybacks.
On mortgage renewals or you like to kind of stick to your five year renewal.
So that's like a mid to low to mid single digit weighted average term.
Hey, Jamie its James as always priority number one is going to be to try to ladder that maturity curve that we have you all of that said with the volatility that we've experienced in the market over the last seven weeks Youll five year seems to be the bread and butter in terms of where volumes are and where the most attractive credit spreads are you all of that said.
But again under the allocation framework will make the most value accretive decision as we go quarter by quarter, and we think that flexibility is valuable over time.
But again under the allocation framework will make the most value accretive decision as we go quarter by quarter, and we think that flexibility is valuable over time.
To your point with the flatness of the current yield curve, there is attractive pricing a little bit longer whether that's 6789 10, I think you'll find us balance balance that depending on what's available in that market. As you know we're in the market every single month.
Your next question comes from Ron Jairam with J P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Ron Jeremy with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning Brendan.
Hey, good morning Brendan.
I wanted to talk a little bit about the full year Capex number.
I wanted to talk a little bit about the full year Capex number.
Your updated guidance guide calls for about $1 billion, a little less than that of Capex in the first half.
Your updated guys guide calls for about $1 billion, a little less than that of Capex in the first half.
But given this current maturity curve, you'll you'll likely see us do something fairly diverse for the for the balance of the year somewhere between five and 10, depending on attractiveness any given in any given month.
We're roughly a $500 million per quarter run rate.
We're roughly a $500 million per quarter run rate.
And you downshift to $3 75 per quarter in the second half I know you are running a more level loaded program with four frac crews. So just trying to understand.
And you downshift to $3 75 per quarter in the second half I know you are running a more level loaded program with four frac crews. So just trying to understand.
Okay, Great. That's it for me then I'll turn it back thanks.
Thanks James.
Your next question will come from Matt Cornett with National Bank. Please go ahead.
The capex trajectory in the second half it sounds like working interest as maybe a driver, but help us get comfortable with that second half downshift in capex.
The capex trajectory in the second half it sounds like working interest as maybe a driver, but how help us get comfortable with that second half downshift in capex.
Hi, guys.
Just wanted to follow up on Sam's commentary about the southern Alberta markets and just.
Yes, so erinn.
Yeah. So.
The activity level on a gross basis is essentially unchanged through the year and really it's just that working interest effect and the largest driver of that is the.
The activity level on a gross basis is essentially unchanged through the year and really it's just that working interest effect and the largest driver of that is the.
In the context of I guess, it's slide 13, the difference between renewal and new leasing spreads in Alberta.
What would those comments with regards to southern Alberta be indicative of the April trends or is that what you're expecting in <unk>.
The lower activity in the BC side of the Montney in the front half of the year and we're now receiving permits.
The lower activity in the BC side of the Montney in the front half of the year and we're now receiving permits for.
Sure that BC Montney area, and so we're well positioned to be back into that area in the second half of the year, which we had signaled the last call. So thats now happening and moving ahead. So that's really the factor thats driving that.
Sure that BC Montney area, and so we're well positioned to be back into that area in the second half of the year, which we had signaled the last call. So thats now happening and moving ahead. So that's really the factor thats driving that.
Further into the spring and then I guess at what point given those comments should we expect kind of.
Market rents to catch up with the incentive reductions youre getting on renewals.
Hey, Matt it's James here in southern Alberta, as yet to Sam's point, I mean, new leasing spreads are quite positive in southern Alberta and in fact, they've exceeded our renewal spreads in the month of April .
Sure.
Sure.
Great great.
Great great.
And just maybe.
Just maybe.
A follow up on the the <unk> contracting strategy last quarter you'd message that you've locked in.
Follow up on the the Oss contracting kind of strategy last quarter you'd message that you've locked in.
So we're talking kind of mid to high single digits on actually high single digits on new leasing spreads and on renewal spreads as you see reflected on slide 13 that as the Alberta average, Alberta averages very very close to 5% right. So southern Alberta in Northern Alberta are actually very similar on renewal what we're seeing in southern Alberta is really strong.
And the 100% of your Frac.
And the 100% of your Frac and you had contracted your Oc <unk> supply in some of your service capacity for D&C.
<unk> contracted your Oc <unk> supply in some of your service capacity for D&C having.
Have you shifted any of the contracting in terms of pricing.
Have you shifted any of the contracting in terms of pricing.
Before it sounded like Youre contracted on the Frac side, but maybe not so on steel and other services, but maybe give us an update on how that <unk>.
Before it sounded like Youre contracted on the Frac side, but maybe not so on steel and other services, but maybe give us an update on how that.
<unk> on the new leasing front.
And then I guess with regards to Edmonton, given given the occupancy gains that you've noted.
Contracting strategy is evolving given the tight services environment.
Contracting strategy is evolving given the tight services environment.
Obviously theres a lag in terms of rental should we expect the new leasing environment. There I guess, maybe that's a 2023 item in terms of.
Yes.
Yes.
You've got it nailed there so we had priced in a lot of our.
You've got it nailed there so we had priced in a lot of our D&C.
D&C activity, particularly on the Frac side and a portion of our pipe for the year, we had secured all of our pipe for the year, but some of it we had left unpriced.
D&C activity, particularly on the Frac side and a portion of our pipe for the year, we had secured all of our pipe for the year, but some of it we had left unpriced.
I'm getting there and are you using incentives at this point and new leases in and Edmonton.
Matt It's James here on new leasing spreads again, we're very close to seeing that inflection in fact on new leasing spreads.
And those CTG if you remember back in February was actually trending down and of course the events that have unfolded. Since then have flipped that over so.
And <unk> if you remember back in February was actually trending down and of course the events that have unfolded. Since then have flipped that over so we're certainly glad we locked in as much as we did on pricing. However.
In our most recent month, we were very close to flat.
We're certainly glad we locked in as much as we did on pricing.
To Sam's earlier point, we're picking up occupancy every single day.
However, clearly that still leaves some exposure to increase prices on the fuel and labor and steel side and that's what we've reflected in the updated guide. So we are continuing to lock in prices through the year to make sure we've got.
However, clearly that still leaves some exposure to increase prices on the fuel and labor and steel side and that's what we've reflected in the updated guide. So we are continuing to lock in prices through the year to make sure we've got the.
Northern Alberta, and this is in advance of a really busy summer leasing season in advance of those three cohorts of students that are coming back in advance of a huge population growth from.
Our federal immigration policies, and so we would actually anticipate new leasing spreads in Edmonton to turn positive as we continue to build occupancy that is a 2022 summer 2022 event.
The certainty we need and that's really what you see reflected in the updated capital today.
The certainty we need and that's what really what you see reflected in the updated capital today.
Your next question comes from mono.
Your next question comes from mono.
Okay.
With TD. Please go ahead.
With TD. Please go ahead.
And then bringing all of that together, there's still a bit of a wide range in same property NOI growth outlook.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, just have one question on the hedging.
Just have one question on hedging.
Is that mostly costs related or is that just a question around just how strong.
One is a fairly short list of companies that are put on new oil hedges for the first half of 2023.
One is a fairly short list of companies that are put on new oil hedges for the first half of 2023.
The spring and summer leasing is going to be in these markets.
If we look across the industry, we've actually seen a few companies who spend their hedging programs entirely. So my question is what can we expect the hedging strategy to look like beyond the middle.
If we look across the industry, we've actually seen a few companies who spend their hedging programs entirely. So my question is what can we expect the hedging strategy to look like beyond the middle.
Hi, Matt It's Lisa why don't we why don't we dig down a little bit into our expense expectations I guess as we're looking at that same store guidance range just to provide more color and then and then we can elaborate on the revenue side. So overall from an operating expense bucket, which would include wages and salaries repairs and maintenance advertising insurance those costs, we were anticipating.
Of next year and why hedge at all with me with the balance sheet back in good shape and potentially no growth into into 2023.
Of next year and why hedge at all with the with the balance sheet back in good shape and essentially no growth into into 2023.
Yes. Thanks for the question and this is this is a key piece for us because we've we have significantly adjusted the hedging practice.
Yes. Thanks for the question and this is this is a key piece for us because we have significantly adjusted the hedging.
3% to 4% growth in those operating expense lines.
The utilities as evidenced by what we saw in Q1 with the higher gas prices that we're seeing on that curve, we have forecasted those utilities to increase with a year over year growth of call. It 7% to 9% and then property taxes, we're forecasting around 3%. So overall I mean, we are expecting some cost pressures most definitely but do you.
Practice going forward as of the latest announcement and so really our strategy here is we want to be able to protect the business from an environment of very low prices, which.
<unk> going forward as of the latest announcement and so.
Our strategy here is we want to be able to protect the business from an environment of very low prices, which.
Unfortunately is still a real <unk>.
Unfortunately is still a real <unk>.
Possibility over time in the commodity business that we're in and so really what we're doing is we're making sure that in a period of low prices. We can maintain scale in the business and be free cash flow neutral or better after the base dividend and we think that's a prudent approach to managing risk with our hedge book.
<unk> ability over time in the commodity business that we're in and so.
Especially in this world of inflation, we are we are.
As much as we can in a pretty good job. We think are still managing those controllable expenses and then on the revenue side, maybe James can add some color yeah. So matti I can just add to leases points are.
Really what we're doing is we're making sure that in a period of low prices. We can maintain scale in the business and be free cash flow neutral or better after the base dividend and we think that's a prudent approach to managing risk with our hedge book.
Our same property NOI guidance range, we've actually tightened from what we had originally had I mean, there's the remains.
So with that is translating through is.
So with us translating through is.
Some some gap for that more volatile expense environment that Lisa was referring to but.
As a hedge book, that's something like 20% to 25% of production and today using three ways that give us a lot of upside price exposure and so to your question about why hedge at all we like the trade of having that protection in place and in the event that something happens.
As a hedge book, that's something like 20% to 25% of production and today using three ways that give us a lot of upside price exposure and so to your question about why hedge at all we like the trade of having that protection in place and in the event that something happens.
We look at on the revenue side, you can see it in the trajectory and we disclosed that in our press release, you can see what's happening with leasing spreads you can see what's happening with occupancy there was a significant pickup in my radar preliminary occupancy for me is very close to 97% and again as Sam pointed out the trajectory on that occupancy continues to be very positive.
But also making sure that we've got quite a lot of upside. So for example, if you look at the position for Q1 and Q2 of next year.
But also making sure that we've got quite a lot of upside. So for example, if you look at the position for Q1 and Q2 of next year.
Okay, and I guess, one one more on guidance and then one more after that but.
<unk> participation up over $110, a barrel and gas up over $7. An M. So we think thats a good trade off in terms of managing that commodity price risk.
Participation up over $110, a barrel and gas up over $7 an M. So we think thats a good trade off in terms of managing that commodity price risk.
In terms of the adjustment to guidance was that mostly a Q1 item in your outlook for the remainder of the years is pretty much as it was.
Or is there anything else.
It kind of gave you caution other than the expenses that you've noted.
Your next question comes from Jeffrey Lane, John with Tudor Pickering Holt. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Jeffrey Lane, John with Tudor Pickering Holt. Please go ahead.
At this point.
On same property NOI, it's really just the utility expenses, we have Q1 reflected again, if we look at the leasing momentum that we have it's quite strong on the F. A full front I mean, it's so.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions first one just a follow up or a few follow ups to the discussion on returns and free cash flow allocation overall.
Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions first one just a follow up or a few follow ups to the discussion on returns and free cash flow allocation overall.
To us that just given your debt maturity window, and how youll be able to drop to sub 3 billion in debt by the end of Q3 that you can easily continue to strengthen the balance sheet towards the $2 billion level by the end of next year. If you wanted to even while still returning in excess of $2 5 billion of cash to shareholders on our numbers. So I guess first is that a reasonable way to think.
Toss that just given your debt maturity window, and how youll be able to drop to sub $3 billion in debt by the end of Q3 that you can easily continue to strengthen the balance sheet towards the $2 billion level by the end of next year. If you wanted to even while still returning in excess of $2 5 billion of cash to shareholders on our numbers. So I guess first is that a reasonable way to think.
Interest costs right interest cost have moved 100 basis points on us since we reported our results in February I was a significant impact.
Frankly for for the entire industry in the entire sector and were not excluded.
Yeah Fair enough, we've we've captured that in our numbers.
Hum.
Just on the buyback I think it was tied to asset sales.
With 2023, you can look like its trip and then second to somewhere near that $2 billion level and that makes sense just looking at leverage metrics under mid cycle pricing and then lastly, once you get there absent M&A and we've seen the vast majority of free cash flow towards shareholder returns.
With 2023 can look like in strip and then second to somewhere near that $2 billion level and that makes sense just looking at leverage metrics under mid cycle pricing and then lastly, once you get there absent M&A and we've seen the vast majority of free cash flow towards shareholder returns.
But given where the share price has gone and what you think the value of your units or is there the potential now to do more on that front.
And maybe diving into that just investor.
Yeah.
Sentiment around Alberta, given that it is a.
Yes, Jeff I appreciate the appreciate the numbers there, yes, I mean, absolutely directionally, you've got that you've got it nailed it I think the way I characterize it was well over $2 billion of of shareholder cash return next year on todays prices. So so I think that was consistent with your two and a half number.
Yes, Jeff I appreciate the I appreciate the numbers there, yes, I mean, absolutely directionally, you've got that you've got it nailed it I think the way I characterize it was well over $2 billion of.
A market you can capture inflation.
As we said Matt in our prepared remarks, I think R R and CIB or an investment in our own.
Shareholder cash return next year on todays prices. So so I think that was consistent with your two and a half number.
Our own portfolio at a five 1% cap rate.
You just can't find departments at those at those price levels, it's a $160000 a door I mean again transactions that we're seeing are well above that.
So really on the on where are we headed on the data we believe that continuing to reduce that as important to create resilience and we think that's going to have a lot of value going forward. So maybe I'll just ask Cory to comment on that trajectory.
So really on the on the where are we headed on the data we believe that continuing to reduce debt is as important to create resilience and we think thats going to have a lot of value going forward. So.
We will continue to evaluate our allocation opportunities each and every single day, but.
Maybe I'll just ask Cory to comment on that trajectory.
Reiterate that that we believe that especially at these price levels of investment in our own portfolio was a great use of our capital.
Yes, Brendan I think when we look at the overall capital structure, it's important to remember when you're this far above mid cycle prices, putting some OE and improving that credit ratings important. So right now we said that we would call low triple B.
Yes, Brendan I think when we look at the overall capital structure, it's important to remember when you're this far above mid cycle prices, putting some OE and improving that credit ratings important so right now we sit in what we call low triple B.
We all think.
Matt We also plan more dispositions towards the end of the year.
To recharge the.
Capital the equity capital.
Ideally we'd be in a mid triple B space, which you can debate, whether that's 2 billion or a little bit less than that but somewhere in that direction, probably gets us closer to mid triple B is an ideal capital structure.
Ideally we'd be in a mid triple B space, which you can debate, whether that's 2 billion or a little bit less than that but somewhere in that direction, probably gets us closer to mid triple B is an ideal capital structure.
Purchase.
Less.
Less expensive.
Equity.
Capital.
Our more extensive equity capital.
We still are seeing.
And then Jeff maybe the last thing I think was your question on where does the the percent of free cash flow trend to with time and I think what you see.
And then Jeff maybe the last thing I think was your question on where does the the percent of free cash flow trend to with time and I think what you see across the sector here is that as companies have have reduced their debt down to.
Pretty steady cap rate.
And.
The private markets so.
So we believe there is.
Across the sector here is that as companies have have reduced their debt down to.
Opportunity to continue selling some of our non core assets and using that equity to purchase our <unk>.
Two our optimal level that that cash return starts to inflect upwards and so I think thats a pattern that it makes sense for us as well.
Optimal level that that cash return starts to inflect upwards and so I think that's a pattern that makes sense for us as well.
Less expensive.
Equity capital.
Fair enough makes sense and I appreciate all the color.
Perfect. Thanks, and then my second one is just on portfolio rationalization just wanted an update on how you view the opportunity at this point to sell down assets like the Uinta and how do you think about utilizing proceeds for any divestments.
Perfect. Thanks, and then my second one is just on portfolio rationalization just wanted an update on how you view the opportunity at this point to sell down assets like the Uinta and how you think about utilizing proceeds for any divestments, if they'd be utilized towards bolt ons. If you can talk about how you'd approach those opportunities at all or.
Thanks, Brian .
Yes.
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Your next question will be coming from Mike Mark.
<unk> utilized towards bolt ons, if you can talk about how you'd approach those opportunities at all or if that could be earmarked earmarked to further accelerate the buyback program.
With <unk>. Please go ahead.
It could be earmarked earmarked to further accelerate the buyback program.
Hi, there thanks, everybody.
Yes, maybe just.
Hello.
Yes, I mean, maybe just.
Pretty bullish comments that you guys had I mean.
I'll start with the bolt on piece and then come to your question on the A&D market overall I think.
I'll start with the bolt on piece and then come to your question on the A&D market overall I think.
Rent spreads pardon me catching up in northern Alberta to where they are in southern Alberta, and I guess.
We just think it's a good business to just be continuously looking in the market for value accretive bolt on opportunities and you can see us making.
We just think it's a good business to just be continuously looking in the market for value accretive bolt on opportunities and you can see is making.
If things continue on the track with their pet there.
That they're on currently would it be safe to say that barring unexpected.
Quite a bit of progress even though it is a more challenging environment from a bid ask spread in today's market.
Quite a bit of progress even though it is a more challenging environment from a bid ask spread in today's market.
Yes.
Stabilized annual revenue growth for Alberta in excess of 5% is realistic to think about for 2023.
So we're committed to staying disciplined on this we evaluate the deals through our mid cycle lens.
So we're committed to staying disciplined on this we evaluate the deals through our mid cycle lens.
We're comfortable today with our over 10 years of premium inventory, but we like the ability to be just adding to that and extending that as we go.
We're comfortable today with our over 10 years of premium inventory, but we like the ability to be just adding to that and extending that as we go.
Well, that's what the rentals and occupancy gains and net lease over lease on new leases and existing leases.
On progress there we've added something like 140 net locations since we started towards the end of last year.
On progress there we've added something like 140 net locations since we started towards the end of last year.
Reflecting actually higher than that right now and our.
The market with.
For very low amount of capital.
For very low amount of capital.
Around one or 2% vacancy the only market that that's higher as Edmonton and we are seeing as we discussed rentals about move outs that will get us to that one or 2% vacancy market in Edmonton by the end of June So, we'll have one or 2% vacancy in all.
And by the way about half of those is in the Permian. So we kind of like the progress that we're making chipping away there I.
And by the way about half of those is in the Permian. So we kind of like the progress that we're making chipping away there.
I think on your broader A&D question clear.
I think on your broader A&D question clear.
Clearly this is a seller's market.
Clearly this is a seller's market.
Prices are very strong and expectations are high for from sellers. So we look at the whole portfolio all the time to try and figure out what's the best way to get more value out of it and how do we translate that through to shareholder value. So nothing specific to point to there, but that's something we're always scanning for.
Prices are very strong and expectations are high for from sellers. So we look at the whole portfolio all the time to try and figure out what's the best way to get more value out of it and how do we translate that through to shareholder value. So nothing specific to point to there, but that's something we're always scanning for.
Our core markets.
At this current.
Right of rentals and at that point in time, what we're seeing in our other markets Southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
New lease.
Uh huh.
Of about 8% as of April a little bit higher.
Your next question comes from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
Your next question comes from Nicholas Pope with Seaport Research. Please go ahead.
A little bit higher this month currently.
And so we are yes.
Yes.
That that is about it's a high single digit reflecting more inflationary.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
Good morning.
I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit.
I was hoping you guys could talk a little bit.
Inflationary amounts current inflationary models.
About the market opportunity optimization piece and kind of where that flows through for the company. It looks like you guys had a really strong kind of realized pricing.
About the market opportunity the optimization piece and kind of where that flows through for the company. It looks like you guys had a really strong kind of realized pricing.
Okay. Thanks.
Quick one for Lisa your G&A expense here administration expense.
Number for the quarter.
Number for the quarter.
Obviously, it's a big charge that you guys have a big marketing organization. So just kind of maybe you could talk through a little bit about where that where the benefit of that kind of shows up elsewhere on the.
Obviously, it's a big charge that you guys have a big marketing organization. So just kind of maybe you could talk through a little bit about where that where the benefit of that kind of shows up elsewhere on the.
I look at year over year, or just average or.
Quarterly numbers for 2021, it was down pretty substantially what should we be was there anything delayed.
Delayed and there are I guess.
Kind of the income statement realized pricing or is that or is it more just seasonality wise, where the pricing was so strong.
Kind of the income statement realized pricing or is that or is it more just seasonality wise, where the pricing was so strong.
Differently, where should we be thinking about in terms of a run rate for the rest of this year.
Yes that Q1 run rate is probably as likely.
For the quarter, Yeah ill, just ask Corey to take that one on there.
For the quarter, Yeah ill, just ask Corey to take that one on Nick Thanks.
That you could use going forward for the remainder of the year. We do we are really managing those administrative costs as much as we can and so we do anticipate that G&A will be a little bit lower this year.
Hey, Nick Yes, fairness of the market optimization segment, that's got a few different pieces in there. So if there is any.
Hey, Nick Yes, fairness of the market optimization segment, that's got a few different pieces in there. So if there is any.
Commitments that we have are obligations that don't relate to the operating assets things like our Rex contracts kind of roll through there as well as that's where the.
Commitments that we have are obligations that don't relate to the operating assets things like our Rex contracts kind of roll through there as well as that's where the.
Okay, perfect and last one for me before I turn it back just on the topic you guys highlighted.
Favorable benefit of the <unk>.
Restructuring.
Buying and selling in around different sales points show up so when the marketing team Optimizes the revenue by.
Buying and selling in around different sales points show up so when the marketing team optimizes the revenue by buying.
Cable and internet provider in Saskatchewan.
Is that something that is included in the leases or has that recovered.
From your tenants.
Buying and selling within basins, that's kind of where it shows up so margin enhancement will appear there as well as some of our legacy cost, which we've talked about things.
Buying and selling within basins, that's kind of where it shows up so margin enhancement will appear there as well as some of our legacy cost, which we've talked about things.
Hey, Mike in Saskatchewan, we have we have different programs across our various provinces in Saskatchewan. It is something that we have provided our residents were working with our partner there.
Things like racks rolling off.
Things like racks rolling off.
In 2024, so a combination of those to show up in that segment.
In 2024, so a combination of those to show up in that segment.
To move towards something similar to what we have in Alberta, which is one where we're not.
Got it Thats helpful.
Got it that's helpful.
The community provider, providing that on behalf of our residents, but in the meantime in between time, we did have a very favorable.
And just switching gears a little bit.
And just switching gears a little bit.
When you look at the Anadarko asset right now.
When you look at the Anadarko asset right now.
It seems like the first quarter was a little weak.
It seems like the first quarter was a little weak.
Restructuring of our contractor that saw a significant decline in the cost of that service for our residents.
And trying to understand how you kind of talked about weather and kind of operational delays I was curious how much of that kind of was in the Anadarko.
And trying to understand how you kind of talked about weather and kind of operational delays I was curious how much of that kind of was in the Anadarko.
Alright, and my memory is a little foggy because.
Because were initiated I think from a couple of years ago, you remember what the change was in terms of what you did in Alberta, and how that might be rolled over in Saskatchewan.
And.
And.
I guess, what what the longer term goal is right now with that with that asset.
I guess, what what the longer term goal is right now with that with that asset.
Yes, so in Alberta are really we have a partnership with our telco providers.
Kind of going.
Kind of going.
Yes, thanks, Nick.
Yeah. Thanks, Nick you may have.
Really in the Anadarko. The story there is the 60 40 piece that we talked about overall in the portfolio, where 60% of our turn in lines are going to come in the second half of the year, So youre going to see.
Really in the Anadarko. The story there is the 60 40 piece that we talked about overall in the portfolio, where 60% of our turn in lines are going to come in the second half of the year, So youre going to see.
With which we provide very unique pricing to our residents here in Alberta, and we benefit from that.
Again from a revenue share with our partner there in Saskatchewan you know it is a structure where we are.
Some of that show up there and strength in production through the back half of the year, but really across the portfolio were broadly flat year over year.
Some of that show up there and strength in production through the back half of the year, but really across the portfolio were broadly flat year over year.
Procuring.
Our net services and providing that to our residents and again the price of that or the cost of that has changed with this most recent contract.
And each of the assets.
In each of the assets.
There is a little bit of shape in the Bakken in the Montney because of deferring some of that first half 2022 activity in the BC side of the money and putting that into the Bakken, but but outside of that in this maintenance mode. We are largely maintaining scale in each of the each of the assets.
There is a little bit of shape in the Bakken in the Montney because of deferring some of that first half 2022 activity in the BC side of the money and putting that into the Bakken, but but outside of that in this maintenance mode. We are largely maintaining scale in each of the each of the assets.
And do you think there is an opportunity to transition Saskatchewan onto our model similar to Alberta in the market.
The future or is it still.
Further further away.
Likely in the next two to three years again, we're working with our with our partner there in Saskatchewan to move towards that but again in the meantime move between time Theres a significant savings versus what we had previously.
There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.
There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.
Got it okay. Thanks very much.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. This call is now complete.
Thank you everyone for joining us today. This call is now complete.
Thanks, Mike.
There are no further questions at this time you can please go ahead.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today, we thank you for participating and ask that you. Please disconnect your lines have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today, we thank you for participating and ask that you. Please disconnect your lines have a great day.
Thank you operator as always if there are any questions or comments. Please do not hesitate to contact us we would like to say a very special. Thank you to our retiring trustee of 15 years, Mr Art, <unk> and a warm welcome to our new trustee Mandy Abramson.
Gratitude, we would like to thank our extraordinary team loyal residents CMA <unk> lenders, our unit holders and all our stakeholders. It really is all about our people.
<unk> huge shoulders, we stand and as leaders we continue to do everything we can to support continued growth and extraordinary we really can't thank our extraordinary team and great leaders enough. We are pleased with our improving results on a foundation of exceptional value. We continue to provide a resident members our investors.
And all our stakeholders our home, it's much more than a place or location or future family, where love always lifts what can be more important when choosing where to call home. Thank you again, everyone for joining us This morning, God bless us granted haul piece.
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