Q1 2022 LyondellBasell Industries NV Earnings Call
Hello, and welcome to the Lyondellbasell teleconference at the request of behind all this all this conference is being recorded for instant replay purposes.
Following today's presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Kinney head of Investor Relations, Sir you may begin.
Thank you Alex before we begin the discussion I would like to point out that a slide presentation accompanies today's call and is available on our website at www Dot Lyondellbasell Dot com Slash Investor Relations stay we won't be discussing our business results, while making references to some forward looking statements and non-GAAP financial measures.
We believe the forward looking statements are based upon reasonable assumptions and the alternative measures are useful to investors. Nonetheless, the forward looking statements are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. We encourage you to learn more about the factors that could lead our actual results to differ by reviewing the cautionary statements in the presentation slides and our regulatory filings, which are also available at our.
<unk> Investor Relations website.
Additional documents on our Investor website provide reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP financial measures together with other disclosures, including the earnings release and our business results discussion.
A recording of this call will be available by telephone beginning at one P. M. Eastern time today until May 29 by calling 870 76606853 in the United States and 20161 to 7415 outside the United States. The access code for both numbers is 13727006.
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During today's call, we will focus on first quarter results, the current market and our near term outlook.
Before turning the call over to Ken I would like to call your attention to the noncash lower of cost or market inventory adjustments or LCM and the impairments that we have discussed on past calls LCM adjustments are related to our use of last in first out or LIFO accounting and the volatility in prices for our raw materials and finished goods inventories.
Impairment charges were recognized to write down assets to their estimated fair value impair.
Impairments include the noncash impairment of $624 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 that reflects our evaluation of strategic options for the Houston refinery.
Comments made on this call will be in regard to our underlying business results, excluding the impacts of impairments and LCM inventory adjustments, but that being said I know and now I would like to turn the call over to Ken.
Thank you, Dave and welcome to all of you. We appreciate you joining us today as we discuss our first quarter 2022 results.
Today's teleconference March My second earnings call as the interim CEO of Lyondellbasell and I would like to thank our board of directors for the opportunity to lead the company over the past few months.
Incoming CEO Peter Vanacker joined our board on February 25th and we're looking forward to him assuming his role as Chief Executive Officer on May 23rd.
Peter and I have been talking over the past several months to ensure a smooth transition and a successful start to his leadership of our company.
I know that Peter is very eager to engage with our employees customers investors and suppliers to help us build upon the momentum we have underway in lyondellbasell.
Before we get into the results I would like to take a moment to address the tragic and unprovoked attacks unfolding in your frame.
My Heartbreak thing so many people devastated and the resulting humanitarian crisis.
At Lyondellbasell, we are working to address the impacts of this crisis through our global corporate citizenship program advancing good.
The company and our employees have collectively donated more than $600000 to the United Nations High Commissioner for refugees and the International Medical Corps.
Lyondellbasell presence in Russia, and Ukraine is fairly limited less than 3% of our 2021 revenue came from Russia, and a negligible amount from your frame.
In March we announced that Lyondellbasell will not enter into any new business transactions or relationships with Russian state owned entities.
We also intend to discontinue business relationships with those companies to the extent legally possible.
Of course, we're also complying with all U S and international sanctions.
While we have no manufacturing sites in Russia, or your Crane, we do have about 30 employees working in offices in Russia.
Last week, we made the difficult decision to cease operations at our Moscow and totally all the offices.
We have a local team in place to support our employees during this transition period.
At Lyondellbasell, we believe in the power of many and we hope many of you find ways to support the Ukrainian people and influence peace and stability across Europe .
Now, let's review, our first quarter results, starting with slide three.
Lyondellbasell businesses are continuing and continuing to benefit from solid global demand and improving markets for products from our intermediates and derivatives segment.
During the first quarter Lyondellbasell generated $4 per share of earnings $2 billion of EBITDA and $1 $5 billion of cash from operating activities. The.
The start of the year is typically a seasonally slow period for the petrochemical industry.
2022 marks the first time since 2015 were Lyondellbasell earned $2 billion of EBITDA during the first quarter and our income of $4 per share establishes a new first quarter earnings per share a record for the company.
Despite a turbulent backdrop of geopolitical uncertainties ongoing supply chain challenges and volatile prices for energy and feedstocks Lyondellbasell is off to a great start in 2022.
Let's turn to slide four and review our safety performance.
Lyondellbasell commitment to safety leadership remains a consistent and unwavering component of our company's culture.
In 2022, our year to date total recordable incident rate for employees and contractors has improved by more than 40% to 0.1 too.
This year, we are emphasizing the importance of instilling safety related touch points during interactions that occur naturally throughout the workday at our facilities.
Whether its planned or spontaneous these daily touch points provide powerful opportunities to convey authentic and impactful leadership related to safety performance.
This personalized approach to safety improvement is yielding results.
March we had only one recordable injury across our global workforce of more than 19000 employees.
This represents substantial progress toward our ultimate goal of zero injuries and I want to thank all of our employees for their commitment to our goal zero journey.
On slide five we highlight the recent publication of the fifth edition of our annual sustainability report.
This year's report updates our progress toward goals that help in addressing climate change ending plastic waste and supporting a thriving society.
The cover graphics from the report highlights our focus on 2030 interim targets to track our progress toward longer term goals.
Last September we accelerated these targets and set a goal to achieve net zero scope, one and scope two greenhouse gas emissions from our global operations by 2050.
Our interim 2030 target is to reduce absolute emissions from our global operations by 30% relative to a 2020 baseline.
In the area of circular plastics are 2030 goal is to produce a meaningful share of our polymer production 2 million tonnes per year from recycled and renewable base feedstocks.
And this year, we announced new targets supporting our diversity equity and inclusion initiatives.
Our goals are to achieve gender parity across our global senior leadership and increase the number of underrepresented groups at our U S. Senior leadership to reflect the general population within 10 years.
Please turn to slide six where we highlight some of our recent collaborations to develop more sustainable products.
First we've collaborated with Nippon paint to produce packaging for the Chinese market using lyondellbasell mechanically recycled circulin recover polypropylene.
Paint containers reuse post consumer plastic waste and reduce reliance on fossil based feedstocks.
Next we show an example of the polyethylene tubes that we developed with our customer Albania for looks at tonne showers for up.
The cats and tubes are designed to be fully recyclable and made with Lyondellbasell circulin revive polymers that are produced from an advanced molecular recycling process using plastic waste.
The redesigned tubes retain the iconic brand look and feel while providing a new life of plastic waste and reducing consumption of fossil based feedstocks.
Finally, we collaborated with several customers to develop clear polypropylene drink cups for Mcdonald's from our circuit and renewable polymers using renewable feedstocks produced by next day from Biobased sources, such as Mcdonald's used cooking oil.
We also have a similar collaboration underway with Circulin revive to make cups for Wendy's restaurants.
When these estimates that there are couple of the verb 10 billion pounds of plastic waste from landfills over the first two years.
Lyondellbasell collaborations on sustainability extent, both up and down the supply chain in Houston, We helped form the Houston recycling collaboration to increase recycling rates and improve the availability of feedstock from plastic waste.
And through our investment with close the partners, we have invested in material recovery facilities that support post consumer plastic waste recycling, and New York, New Jersey and Florida.
Also we are making good progress and decarbonising, our electrical power consumption by eliminating cold or a vessel in Germany facility and establishing the renewable power purchase agreements with partners.
In addition, we are collaborating with several peers on the development of large scale carbon capture and storage facilities for the Houston region that would help decarbonize our industry.
Notably we want to acknowledge our decision to exit the refining business by the end of 2023.
This was a difficult decision, but we determined that an exit is likely to provide the best outcome for the company.
We will talk more about this decision later in this call Nonetheless on the sustainability front the shutdown of the refinery is expected to reduce lyondellbasell scope, one and two greenhouse gas emissions by nearly 15%.
Our strategy is to both leverage Lyondellbasell has proprietary technology and collaborate with capable partners to advance our progress on circular plastics and de carbonization initiatives.
Please turn to slide seven to review our quarterly profitability.
During the first quarter, our business portfolio delivered over $2 billion of EBITDA similar to fourth quarter results.
Spike volatile prices for energy and feedstocks solid product demand supported margins for our products across most markets in Europe and the Americas <unk>.
Supply disruptions triggered by the war in Ukraine, and the Covid pandemic created headwinds during the quarter while.
While we remain watchful for signs of demand destruction from inflation, we've been largely successful in passing through higher energy and feedstock costs and the prices of our products.
We expect the strict zero COVID-19 policies in China will continue to hinder growth and profitability in Asia during the second quarter.
At Lyondellbasell, our oxy fuels and refining businesses are benefiting from increased demand for transportation fuels is in person activities resume and global travel recovers.
We expect that favorable markets for transportation fuels will continue through next year.
Slide eight fixed lyondellbasell historical profitability.
Over the course of the first complete business cycle for our company, we delivered an average of $6 $7 billion of EBITDA and.
In today's strong market it with lyondell, the Zelles larger asset base, we delivered nine $7 billion of EBITDA over the last 12 months nearly 45% above the prior cycle average.
Lyondellbasell as earnings performance is clearly stepping up from prior business cycles.
We are well positioned with a diversified portfolio and larger asset base with propylene oxide and oxy fuels growth underway to extend this performance into the next cycle.
With that I'll turn the call over to Michael who will describe our financial and segment results in more detail.
Thank you Ken and good morning, everyone.
Please turn to slide nine and let me begin by extending the stepping up theme to the substantial cash generation from our businesses.
In the first quarter Lyondellbasell generated $1 $5 billion of cash from operating activities that contributed toward a new record of $8 $6 billion in cash from operations over the last 12 months.
During the past four quarters, our team efficiently converted 88% of our EBITDA into cash.
After accounting for sustaining capital reinvested in the business, we achieved a free operating cash flow yield of 23% relative to our market capitalization over the last 12 months.
The Lyondellbasell team is highly focused on extending our proven track record of efficient cash generation to provide prudent reinvestment in our company and generous returns for our shareholders.
Let's continue with slide 10, and review the details of our cash generation and allocation during the first quarter.
With $1 $5 billion of cash from operating activities, we funded our dividends and capital investments for the first quarter, while continuing to repurchase shares and building some cash on the balance sheet.
During the first quarter returned nearly $600 million to shareholders through our dividend and repurchase of approximately $2 1 million shares we continue to invest in maintenance and growth projects with more than $400 million in capital expenditures. This includes our new world scale P O TBA plant starting.
Later this year.
We ended the quarter with $1 $8 billion of cash and short term investments and $5 $9 billion of cash and available liquidity.
With our total debt at one two times trailing EBITDA, our leverage ratios are below our targeted range of one five to two five and.
And we see no need for further deleveraging at this time.
Now I'd like to provide an overview of the results for each of our segments on slide 11.
As Ken mentioned Lyondellbasell business portfolio delivered over $2 billion of EBITDA during the first quarter.
Our results reflect solid demand for our products and improving market conditions benefiting our <unk> and <unk> segments offset by higher feedstock costs that compressed margins and our <unk> Americas segment.
Let's begin the individuals' segment discussions on slide 12, with the performance of our olefins and Polyolefin Americas segment.
First quarter, 2022, EBITDA was $911 million $351 million lower than the fourth quarter 2021.
Olefin results decreased approximately $170 million compared to the fourth quarter with lower margins due to higher feedstock costs and lower pricing for propylene and butadiene co products.
We completed planned cracker maintenance at our La Porte, Texas site that contributed to lower volumes and resulted in our North America crackers operating at a rate of 82% during the quarter.
Polyolefin results decreased approximately $185 million during the first quarter due to compressed margins driven by lower product prices and higher mining costs.
Stable demand led to relatively comparable volumes, despite ongoing logistics and raw material challenges.
In March we achieved an increase in polyethylene contract prices to reverse fourth quarter trends of declining prices.
We continue to see strong demand for our polymers as we head into the second quarter, we expect margin recovery as product prices rise reflect higher energy and feedstock cost and stronger summer demand tightens markets.
Now please turn to slide 13 to review the performance of our Olefins and Polyolefin Europe Asia International segment.
Higher product prices and volumes offset rising costs, and Eas markets, resulting in first quarter EBITDA of $188 million $33 million higher than the fourth quarter.
Prior quarter results were impacted by LIFO inventory valuation charges of approximately $30 million.
Olefins results increased about $25 million as margins improved driven by increased monitor prices that offset higher feedstock and energy cost.
We operated our European crackers at a rate of 74% of capacity due to planned maintenance in feedstock supply disruptions, resulting from the war in Ukraine.
Combined polyolefin results increased approximately $35 million compared to the prior quarter stable demand drove increased polyolefin price spreads and volumes, despite higher energy and monitor cost.
Historically, low Asian, polyolefin spreads and weaker volumes driven by Covid related Lockdowns in China caused our joint venture equity income to decline by about $50 million.
During the second quarter, we expect that volumes and integrated margins for the segment will be comparable to the first quarter as steady demand should support price increases and keep pace with increasing costs.
On April 13th we reached an agreement to sell our Australia and polypropylene business to Viva energy, we expect a second quarter noncash asset impairment charge of approximately $70 million in the ODP segment related to the sale of this business.
Last quarter, we provided guidance related to planned maintenance at our cracker in Bayer France due to additional work. We now think this turnaround will impact second quarter EBITDA by about $50 million.
As high inflation begins to trigger concerns about the potential for recession. It is instructive to review the resilience of polyethylene demand growth over the past 30 years.
On Slide 14, the chart depicts the strength of polyethylene demand relative to other markets through the last four U S recessions.
As indicated by the turquoise line P demand is remarkably resilient and compounds at a fairly consistent rates of about 4%.
Meaningfully higher than typical GDP.
Unlike U S housing and vehicle markets P demand is relatively inelastic and embedded in our central products for our modern lives.
Polyethylene is a foundational building block for consumer staples with ride ranging applications, such as food packaging daily hygiene supplies and health care products.
And with a cost advantage from shale feedstocks U S. Polyethylene production increasingly serves a global market.
We expect these resilient growth trends will continue as more people in emerging markets gained purchasing power and increase consumption of these essential products for modern life.
Please turn to slide 15, as we take a look at our intermediates and derivatives segment.
Robust margin expansion in most businesses resulted in record first quarter EBITDA of $546 million $294 million above the prior quarter.
Prior quarter results were impacted by LIFO inventory valuation charges of approximately $95 million.
First quarter propylene oxide and derivative results increased $50 million as butane dial in other derivative margins expanded.
Daryl durable goods demand remained solid resulting in comparable volumes for the quarter.
Intermediate chemicals results increased more than $30 million margins increased in most businesses, primarily styrene and asset yields driven by tight market supply.
Volumes increased as a result of improved first quarter operations.
Oxy fuels and related products results increased more than $125 million as margins improved on higher gasoline prices and moderation in the ratio with butane feedstock prices relative to crude oil.
Prior to the pandemic, our oxy fuels business was a fairly reliable contributor to the profitability of our intermediates and derivatives segment with gasoline demand approaching pre pandemic levels. We expect a return to typical performance for the oxy fuels business in 2022.
In the second quarter, we expect volumes to increase with seasonal strength in demand for durable goods from building and construction markets margins for oxy fuels and related products are expected to expand with typical seasonal reductions in butane feedstock costs and increased gasoline demand associated with summer travel.
Planned maintenance at our butane dialed facility and one of our two propylene oxide units located at our channel view, Texas site is expected to impact second quarter EBITDA for intermediates and derivatives segment by approximately $80 million.
Over the past two weeks, we declared force majeure for several asset tool products due to equipment failure at our La Porte, Texas site.
If we are successful in restarting asset hills production. During May we are currently estimating a second quarter EBITDA impact for the fourth of downtime of approximately $50 million.
Now, let's move forward and review the results of our advanced polymer solutions segment on slide 16.
Improving volumes from automotive production and higher margins resulted in first quarter EBITDA of $125 million or $101 million higher than the fourth quarter. Prior quarter results were impacted by LIFO inventory valuation charges of approximately $55 million.
Compounding <unk> solutions results increased $40 million volumes increased due to improved demand from automotive parts manufacturers relative to the fourth quarter.
Margins increased through stronger product pricing and improving asset utilization, partially offset by higher raw material and energy costs.
Advanced polymers results increased $10 million driven by increased seasonal roofing demand for catalog and higher product prices.
We expect results will be similar in the second quarter as automotive recovery continues to drive volumes, while rising costs impact margins.
The latest IHS production forecast predicts a 4% rise in 2022 global automotive built and a 9% increase in 2023.
Unfortunately, these reduced forecast delay our return to prior peak production levels until 2025.
Now please turn to slide 17, and discuss the results of our refining segment.
First quarter EBITDA was $148 million.
A decrease of $2 million prior quarter results benefited from LIFO inventory valuation changes of approximately $50 million.
In the first quarter, the Maya 211 benchmark expanded significantly to $30 82 per barrel, a seven dollar and 24 <unk> increase due to higher demand for gasoline and diesel partially offset by lower byproduct value. We operated the refinery at 95% of nameplate capacity with an app.
Average crude throughput of 255000 barrels per day in.
In April refining margins continued to expand with increasing demand for transportation fuels, we expect refining markets will remain favorable during the summer months.
Please turn to slide 18, as we review the results for our technology segment.
First quarter, EBITDA was $103 million $70 million lower than the prior quarter's record level.
The results were driven by lower licensing revenue and higher catalyst volumes and margins.
We expect that second quarter profitability for our technology business will be slightly higher than the first quarter based on the anticipated timing of licensing revenue milestones with that I will turn the call over to Ken Ken.
Thank you Michael.
As I mentioned earlier last week, we announced our decision to exit the crude oil refining business no later than the end of 2023.
While these decisions are never easy operation of the refinery beyond next year would require significant capital investment.
After thoroughly analyzing our options we determined that exiting the business was the best path forward.
Our intention is to safely operate the refinery at full range through the end of next year to meet strong market demand for transportation fuels.
During that time, we will continue to consider potential transactions and alternatives for the site.
As mentioned earlier by exiting refining Lyondellbasell will make substantial progress in reducing the company's greenhouse gas emissions.
In addition, the refinery is located on 700 acres into center of one of the world's leading integrated petrochemical hubs.
<unk> unique location provides lyondellbasell with valuable options for future growth, including further development of our circular businesses.
We recognize that this decision affects our employees their families and the community.
Our employees and contractors at the refinery have delivered outstanding performance in safety reliability cost improvement in profitability over the past several years.
We sincerely thank them for their contributions and we are committed to supporting our people through this transition.
Now, let me summarize the first quarter and our outlook with slide 19.
With all of the turbulence in the global economy, Lyondellbasell first quarter results illustrate the benefits of our global business portfolio and how demand for our products is highly resilient.
While Asia suffering from weak markets and historically low margins demand in Europe , and the Americas remains remarkably strong and consistent.
Improving margins in our intermediates and derivatives segment offset first quarter margin compression in our O N P Americas business.
We expect p/e chain margins to improve with higher seasonal demand supporting polymer price increases.
Also increased demand for transportation fuels is driving a recovery from pandemic related weakness in our oxy fuels and refining businesses.
As a result, we expect cash generation will remain strong at Lyondellbasell.
Just like our earnings we are stepping up and our progress on sustainability today, we talked about a few of our collaborations with customers develop circular and renewable products for meaningful applications.
We are exiting refining and entering into agreements for the supply of renewable power that will drive significant progress on our path toward de carbonization.
And we are raising our targets and expanding on our disclosures and our latest sustainability report.
We remain committed to prudent capital allocation.
With robust cash generation, we plan to continue rewarding shareholders through a growing dividend and share repurchases.
We are consistent in our commitment to an investment grade balance sheet and remain highly disciplined in our consideration of organic and inorganic growth investments.
The coming months are exciting times for Lyondellbasell, our businesses are generating resilient results. Despite volatile economic conditions, we are laying the groundwork for new more sustainable business models that are likely to reshape value change across our industry and later this year, we will be starting up our new propylene oxide and <unk>.
Oxy fuels assets during a period of robust margins and strong market demand.
Finally on May 23rd I look forward to welcoming our next CEO , Peter Vanacker to lead Lyondellbasell.
I Hope you share my enthusiasm about the future of our company under his leadership, we're now pleased to take your questions.
Thank you Sir.
Ladies and gentlemen at this time, we'll begin the question and answer session.
As a reminder, if you have a question. Please press the star followed by the one on your Touchtone phone.
If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press the star followed by the Q1.
We do ask you to please limit to one question.
Our first question comes from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please proceed with your question.
Good morning, this is kieran on for Chris.
I was wondering if you could just touch a little bit more in terms of what operating rates youre expecting an own T. Americas in Q2 and throughout the year and maybe how you see that supporting.
I have been announced price increases throughout the second quarter and throughout the rest of the year. Thank you.
Yes.
Thank you for your question.
We are as we said during the remarks, we are still very bullish on the demand outlook, especially in the Americas. So we we see demand being very strong we we had a record.
Sales month in the month of March for polyethylene in the Americas.
And we see equal actually looking to to improve on that so.
Our outlook is that we will continue to see operating rates effective rates, probably in the 90% or higher range. So that's going to be very supportive for the price increases that are in the market today.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Jessica <unk> with D.
P. Morgan. Please proceed.
Thanks very much.
Polyethylene prices.
China continue to fall, maybe if you look at that.
Months forward prices, maybe theyre down.
$100 a ton.
$13 30, something like that.
What do you make of that and that.
Would've thought that profitability was pretty poor even at higher prices and there has been a movement upward in the other regions.
And maybe you could also comment on the changing profitability of your Bora cracker.
Good morning, Jeff. Thank you for your question I hope you're doing well.
Yes, so China definitely we've been seeing headwinds near a lot of that related still to the Covid lockdowns as you can imagine.
The demand profile in China is quite challenging today with with the amount of Lockdowns that we see also.
To have an impact on some of the supply chain.
Situation that we've seen.
So prices today have basically been moving pretty much with feedstock in China, and when you look across the industry there.
You do see all of the crackers all the operators of crackers. They are cutting back on rates. So even even for us at the board of joint venture, we've reduced rates and we've got a first quartile asset. So we do expect that.
The coming months, what's going to happen is you're going to see a reset around inventory inventories are not high in China by any means and youre going to see the inventory come down and then I expect youre going to see demand come back.
That reopening impact is still to come in China.
And so while yes in the short term, we're seeing some challenges around profitability would be.
Cracker assets in China as I look out in the next few months I expect that that's going to reverse and youre going to see.
Snapback in demand.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please proceed.
Yes. Thank you I have a couple of questions about your Youre circulin products.
And perhaps about the renew which is.
Derived from the renewable naphtha that you'll get from that Steve.
Do you do you see that as challenged longer term because that that feedstock can.
Can you go into renewable diesel and jet.
Lots of credits.
And.
Why not pursue kind of a carbohydrate path for that Keith talks such as ethanol sourced ethylene.
Oh.
Thank you Steve for your question.
Yeah. So we're very proud of the product portfolio that we're developing as we've said before we're looking forward to being a leader in the area of circularity in.
And launch of our circular and brought brand globally last year Youre beginning to see the fruits of that effort in the products that we've been developing together with customers today.
And in our portfolio as we look forward the circular and renew part of our portfolio will probably be the smaller segment for us we're much more bullish on our ability to develop the advanced recycling and mechanical recycling parts of our parts of our business those really fit very well with.
Our technical capabilities around developing new processes, but also the application development that we do together with our together with our customers. So we will continue to look for opportunities to develop the circular and renewable portfolio, where we see that in where customers are demanding lower.
Oh, two footprint products, which is primarily why you want those circular in renewable products, but remember when youre doing recycling people are driving recycled content. So theres, a little bit of a different value proposition for those for those two products in the marketplace.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of John Mcnulty with BMO capital markets. Please proceed.
Hi, Good morning, this is John .
So in the IMT segment, clearly very impressive results, especially in the first quarter not now but in the first quarter.
Seen in March despite <unk>, so could you describe.
We break out the earnings in March versus the rest of the quarter.
And then you mentioned that you expect.
Earnings to return to a more of a normalized earnings level. This year, what would that number.
Thanks, a lot for the question.
Yes look the intermediates and derivatives really had a very strong quarter record record first quarter for for that segment.
We did see as the quarter progressed, especially even relative to the fourth quarter margins recovered strong demand pretty much across the portfolio.
We got a little bit of relief on butane in the feedstock and the feed slate. There. So all of those things are going to be very constructive as we go into the second quarter.
<unk> for all of the product lines that we have.
We are continuing to look very good and margins are going to continue to be above average so.
As Michael said in the prepared comments, we do believe that we're going to get those those businesses back to a more normal level.
I would expect that theyre going to be above mid cycle for for the foreseeable future just because we have very strong demand and even in some of those some of those businesses, we're seeing pretty.
Pretty supportive.
Supply side impacts as well some of our some of our competitors. In these markets are also having issues with production. So all of that is going to lead to I think a very strong performance for <unk> in the second quarter and Ken what I would also add specifically around oxy fuels. If you look at the decade kind of before the pandemic the oxy.
Fuels business kind of consistently delivered $400 million plus of EBITDA. So a very consistent generator of earnings.
Thanks, Michael.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.
Thank you I'm just curious about the decision in the quarter to build cash you know it looks like $300 million of cash build versus $200 million of stock buybacks is there any particular thought behind that.
Well listen thanks for your question Vincent we are absolutely committed to continuing.
To be very disciplined around our capital allocation and of course, returning excess cash to our shareholders is going to be a priority. Michael maybe you can just comment a little bit on that yes, I mean listen I'd say a couple of things I.
I mean one.
We've established a track record and a reputation of that converting EBITDA into free cash flow.
No need to further no need to further de lever the balance sheets in great shape, our growth investments are paying dividends working capital this year should be flattish versus last year consumed almost $600 million.
Capex year on year is going to be flat, we will grow the dividend and then we're going to return a meaningful amount of cash to our shareholders. There's no message in the first quarter that we built a little bit of cash on sheet.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Hassan Ahmed with Alembic Global. Please proceed.
Good morning, Ken.
Ken a question around natural gas and ethane supply and the current sort of pricing moves that we've seen I mean, it just seems that there are bunch of crosscurrents right.
Production levels seem to be rising.
Be it this year and beyond.
But we're obviously also seeing a lot of LNG export opportunities popping up right. I mean, if my number serves me right I mean, we have a.
Approximately 14 LNG export terminal approved so.
So how should we think about the extreme near term as well as the longer term natural gas and ethane side of things.
Good morning Hassan Thanks for the question, Yeah listen a lot of there's been a lot of talk about what's happening, especially around natural gas and of course ethane is going to be following that.
It's there.
There are very much short term impacts that are driving natural gas higher if you look at just the energy complex. The alternative with coal is very high so you don't see the switching.
Although production for natural gas is coming up so normally this time of year, we would see a bigger drop off in natural gas pricing I think that's delayed just a little bit because of a couple of things.
Got colder weather in the north.
In the northern part of the United States. So demand is continuing to be high at the higher coal prices of course, we still are.
<unk> out on LNG exports.
Until until the inventories get refilled in Europe and in the U S, which I think will be sometime in mid to late summer I think you're going to see a lot of volatility and elevated prices for natural gas, but I do expect it to come back into a more normal level sometime in the back end of the summer now longer term. These these export facilities take a long time.
To develop and build so.
While those things are being constructed I think what youre going to see and we're seeing it even even currently is at the production rates are going to accelerate so youre going to see more production of natural gas coming on more production of oil coming on.
Both of those I think production.
About 10% for both oil and gas since since a year ago all of that is going to be supportive by generating more ngls in the marketplace. So we still believe that longer term.
I would say sort of the American position around.
Ethane advantage, it's going to continue to be very durable.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of P. J <unk> with Citi. Please proceed.
Yes, hi.
Ken.
Some people believe that integrated polyethylene margins in the U S. At a depressed somewhat because we can't export as much.
And given that these logistical issues do you agree with that assessment, how does China co will play into that and have you seen any export sort of improving over the last few months.
Hi, P. J. Thanks for your question.
Look no doubt we've talked about the headwinds around the supply chain and of course, there have been some constraints in rail movements in the U S and being able to move volume offshore even since the fourth quarter, that's not anything new.
I think I may have commented on this as early as the fourth quarter earnings call that volume is already sold so it's really not weighing on.
It's not like we can sell that twice.
We're really focused on watching the demand trends and demand continues to be very supportive we have been successful in being able to manage our shipments of products offshore to really minimize any impact to our sales.
And I mentioned, just a few minutes ago that we had a record sales.
Sales month in the month of March and we continue to see that being very very robust. So.
What I expect to see is priced.
Pricing in polyethylene in the U S started to turn back up an increase in the first quarter, that's going to continue as we go into the second quarter with higher demand in <unk> and I expect that we'll see some chain.
Some chain margin recovery in Q2.
And P. J. This is Dave I would just chime.
Chime in that in March we did see an increase in exports is up to nearly 40% of production in the month of March and so we think that trend will continue into April once we get the numbers back.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Mike Sison with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning, guys nice start to the year.
Yes, Theres a lot of.
New new capacity in China, and China is supposed to come on stream for polyethylene given what you've mentioned in terms of pricing and sort of the profitability of that do you think that the.
Those projects will come on stream be delayed maybe somebody is getting cancelled any thoughts there.
Good morning, Mike Yeah, we talked about this before I do believe that that is going to slow down some of these startups and it's also going to slow down some of the decisions, especially when you look at the whole energy policy. This developing in China all of those things are going to work to sue.
Slow the development of the new capacity coming online there.
Let's not forget China is still a very big importer of polyethylene and for US what we're really focused on is watching the demand development and as that demand returns and growth in China returns. It is going to absorb that new capacity, it's just a matter of when.
It's not enough and so we're watching those those trends in.
Really focused on the demand side of the equation today.
Yeah.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed.
Yes, hi, good morning wondering if you could talk a little bit about your view on polypropylene supply demand and I mean, our view is the spreads in that chain remain pretty elevated. So curious how you think about the sustainability of that over the coming quarter years et cetera, and with the refinery shut down in the future how do you think about.
Your internal propylene balance after that is that something that needs to be managed or do you have options to deal with that thanks.
Thank you Josh listen via a polypropylene, we're actually we're actually very bullish on.
The supply demand fundamentals there are very good and that's even in the absence of a of a strong.
<unk> strong automotive market.
We expect to see spreads increasing coming into the second quarter, we've already announced.
The spread increased four four may the market continues to be very tight inventories have been coming down and I do think that there.
There's room to go up and polypropylene. So we're feeling very good about our position with polypropylene.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alexia <unk> with Keybanc capital markets. Please proceed.
Thanks, and good morning, everyone can you talk about your Apio business what percent of those businesses on spot versus long term contracts was pass through.
Mark.
Semi fixed margins.
Do you expect those margins to trend.
Next year, given the startup of your P O projects in the U S.
Thanks for the question I'll actually listened.
Propylene oxide as a core business for us and it's one where we have a very strong position in.
Margins have been improving in that business, especially in the Americas and I expect now with some of the recent announcements around the supply side issues that we see in the industry, that's going to continue to be the case.
<unk> continues to be good and it's perfect timing frankly for us to be starting up our P. O. TBA plant later this year, where we're extremely excited about getting that asset online and ramping up production and sales in the first half of next year. So overall.
So overall I don't think we could have really timed it any better.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Kevin Mccarthy with vertical Research partners. Please proceed.
Yes. Good morning can you talk about the alternative uses that you're exploring for the refinery in terms of what those are and what might drive those decisions.
Hi, Kevin. Thank you for your question, Yes, listen like we said the refinery site is located in a very good position geographically on the ship channel and it's got a great pipeline connections with our with our Cracker in channel view. So you know there's a lot of shift there that we can look at.
That could be valuable in terms of if you think about circularity and some of the feedstocks that we would be using a lot of those pyrolysis oil do need some hydro treating and things like that so they are fairly straightforward, but could be very synergistic with our with our circular ambition. So.
We're going to we're going to take the next several years to really study, where we think that can go in and we think we can find some good value for that site in the mid to long term to support our strategy.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Thank you Ken can you talk about the Hypersound and how is that plan progressing in the selling and what type of premiums if any you're getting on the hypersound product.
Hi, David Thanks for the question. So we had mentioned before that we had taken a shutdown in the fourth quarter to be able to make some repairs that add up to that asset and we've been continuing to work through that in the first quarter. So we are we're still not in a position yet to be I would say ratably.
Selling the premium products from that asset that's that's something that's going to build over the next 12 to 18 months. Both the successful side of the equation. There is that we've demonstrated the ability to make differential products that have differential product characteristics and we have been able to get a premium.
On some of those but it's frankly been very small volumes until now so we view that as some of the upside that we're looking at when we talk about stepping up that's part of the upside that we're continuing to see in the next 12 to 18 months for the company.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Steve Richardson with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.
Oh, Hi, this is Shawn on for Steve.
Just a quick check in.
In terms of the refinery or what might be the repurposing costs with facility. If you choose to go in a different direction and then also with.
Great estimated $200 million in repurchases for this quarter, what might be some of the cadence moving forward for repurchases in light of the strong cash flow generation. Thank you.
Yes.
Thank you Shawn I'll take the first question and then I'll, let Michael take the second.
So listen it's way too early for us to be talking about it kind of repurposing costs around the refinery site.
<unk>.
The focus for now is that we're going to operate that that assets safely and reliably of course, we're going to keep a separate team that is going to be looking at some of the options for the future, but our priority right now is going to be really to stay focused on taking.
Taking advantage of what we see in the marketplace today, and and really achieving a great result, there and operating the assets safely. So.
Michael do you want to take the next yes sure. Thanks, Ken.
Well, while I probably won't give.
Guidance on the level of share repurchase activity that we intend to execute the balance of the year.
I can say is we expect to generate a lot of free cash flow, it's not our intention to build.
Any any meaningful cash balances on sheet.
Therefore, the expectation is that you can expect that we're going to return copious amounts of free cash flow to our investors.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC capital markets. Please proceed.
Great. Thanks for taking my questions.
So, yes, I guess I have a lot of questions have been asked around polyethylene, so maybe I'll ask Scott.
A question on <unk> and one on EPS. So.
You know I think peak earnings in the past EBITDA had been around $2. One it looks like you're headed to maybe the one six level or so and I think you mentioned that as mid cycle in the past so.
Is that is that still what you're thinking with the recovery and oxy fuels and then similarly with Aps, what's it going to take.
To get maybe to $800 million EBITDA levels that are more serious recovery in the automotive area Opex.
Thank you Arun.
So yes for IMD I mentioned before we are expecting to be above mid cycle for for that business. So I would say.
I would expect to be above the numbers that youre thinking about would be would be where we're at for sure. We've got very strong tailwind and I had mentioned we had a record first quarter, so coming into the second quarter with demand even improving we're very optimistic.
Heading into the second half of the year or the second quarter and going even into the second half of the year.
Now for Aps, one of the biggest things that we need to see there we've been able to successfully maintain margins and continue to.
To improve our margins.
The volume equation is what's really going to be impactful for that business. So.
As automotive comes back and we're able to really refill that pipeline and get the demand side up that's going to be what's going to drive our results.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair with Tudor Pickering, Holt and company. Please proceed.
Hey, good morning.
I know you are selling or Youre kogan, our refinery at the end of 'twenty three but you know right now refining margins are pretty phenomenal looking at $30 Gulf coast cracks $70.
Diesel cracks.
How should we think about your margin capture potential in Q2.
Or are you going to be able to capture these pretty phenomenal numbers or is there a reason to be cautious on just overall margin capture.
Thanks, Matthew for the question listen for refining.
Yes, we're seeing very strong margins from Maya 211 today is over $60.
Strong diesel cracks.
Gasoline crack strongest since 2015 inventories are low so we're operating the asset very well very high utilization rates. So to answer. Your question just very shortly yes, we expect to be able to capture that margin uplift.
Thank you.
Im showing that there are no further questions I would want it back to Mr. Laney for closing comments.
Thank you Alex and thanks again, everyone for your questions and interest in our company.
Before we close the call I want to emphasize the excitement that's building here at Lyondellbasell around our future.
Generating resilient results and we're going to be welcoming our new CEO Peter Vanacker in May and we have a world class P. O TBA assets starting up later this year.
There is a lot to look forward to and were excited about what lies ahead.
We hope you'll join us in July as we update you on our second quarter results and I wish you all a great weekend, please stay safe.
This concludes today's conference and you may disconnect. Your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.
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