Q2 2022 Texas Instruments Inc Earnings Call

July 26, 2022

Welcome to Texas instruments second quarter 2022 earnings release Conference call.

Today's call is being recorded and Dave Pahl head of Investor Relations and I'm joined with our Chief Financial Officer Raphael Lusardi.

For any of you who missed the release you can find it on our website at <unk> Com Slash IR.

<unk> is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website a replay will be available through the web.

This call will include forward looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause ti's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We.

We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as Ti's. Most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

Today, we will provide the following updates.

First I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter next I'll provide insight into the second quarter revenue results with some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets and lastly, Raphael will cover the financial results and our guidance for the third quarter of 2022.

Starting with a quick overview of the quarter revenue in the quarter was $5 2 billion, an increase of 6% sequentially and 14% year over year driven by growth across markets.

Analog revenue grew 15% embedded processing grew 5% in our other segment grew 19% from the year ago quarter.

Now, let me comment on the environment in the second quarter to provide some context of what we saw with our customers and markets.

As we spoke about in our last earnings call April started out weak from COVID-19 restrictions in China.

As those restrictions began to ease towards the latter part of May and into June customers began to pull product generally consistent with their prior demand forecast at the start of the quarter.

Moving on I will provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by market from the year ago quarter.

First the industrial market was up high single digits in the automotive market was up more than 20%.

We saw weakness throughout the quarter and personal electronics, which grew low single digits.

Next communications equipment was up about 25% and finally enterprise systems was up mid teens.

Rafael will now review profitability capital management and our outlook.

Thanks, Dave and good afternoon, everyone as Dave mentioned second quarter revenue was $5 2 billion.

Up 14% from a year ago.

Profit in the quarter was $3 6 billion or 70% of revenue from a year ago gross profit margin increased to 140 basis points.

Operating expenses in the quarter were $836 million up 2% from a year ago and about as expected.

On a trailing 12 month basis operating expenses were $3 2 billion or 17% of revenue.

Restructuring charges were $66 million in the second quarter and are associated with the Alpha factory that we purchased in October of last year.

Operating profit was $2 7 billion in the quarter or 52% of revenue.

Profit was up 23% from the year ago quarter.

Net income in the second quarter was $2 3 billion or $2 45 per share.

I'll comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

Cash flow from operations was $1 8 billion in the quarter capital expenditures were $597 million in the quarter or.

Two $8 billion over the last 12 months.

Free cash flow on a trailing 12 month basis was $5 9 billion.

In the quarter, we paid $1 1 billion in dividends and repurchased $1 $2 billion of our stock in total we have returned $6 $2 billion in the past 12 months.

Our balance sheet remains strong with $8 4 billion of cash and short term investments at the end of the second quarter will retire half a billion dollars of debt in the quarter total debt outstanding was $7 3 billion with a weighted average coupon of two 7%.

Inventory dollars were up $139 million from the prior quarter to $2 $2 billion and days were 125 down two days sequentially and below desired levels.

Accounts receivable for this quarter ended at $2 2 billion.

Up from $1 $6 billion a year ago.

This increase primarily reflects the higher proportion of shipments made near the end of the quarter as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted in China and customers began pulling product.

For the third quarter, we expect Ti revenue in the range of $4 nine to $5 3 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $2 23 to $2.51.

This outlook comprehended, the weaker demand, we see particularly from customers in the personal electronics market.

We expect our 2020 through effective tax rate to be about 14%.

Lastly, we and our customers remain pleased with the progress of our expansion of manufacturing capacity, which was outlined in our February capital management goal and we will support the long term secular trend of increased semiconductor content per system.

We broke ground on the Sherman manufacturing complex in May and work continues at our fab, two and L fab to prepare for production output.

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, our broad product portfolio reach of our channels and diverse and long lived positions.

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

With that let me turn it back to Dave.

Thanks, Raphael operator, you can now open the lines for questions in order to provide as many of you as possible an opportunity to ask your question. Please limit yourself to a single question. After our response, we'll provide you an opportunity for an additional follow up operator.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question. Please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad using a speaker phone. Please make sure. Your mute function is turned off to let your signal to reach our equipment.

Again, Please press star one to ask a question, we'll pause for just a moment to give everyone an opportunity to signal for questions.

We will take our first question from Stacy <unk> with Bernstein Research. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one I guess I wanted to ask about gross margins. So they decline there were very strong objectively, but they declined sequentially from Q1 into Q2, even as revenue grow.

And then I know you don't guide gross margins for next quarter, but if I sort of like squint at the math.

Seem to be being guided down probably a little more than revenue. So I'm. Just wondering if something is going on whether on the cost line or on the pricing line in this environment.

There may be influencing gross margins at all.

Yes, I'm happy to address that so first as you pointed out our gross margin in the second quarter was about 70%. We're pleased with that performance as it falls through on a year on year basis was.

90%.

I would also point out that you can see this on our cash flow statement depreciation increased sequentially by about $30 million in.

Direct results of the investments in manufacturing capacity.

The second part of your question on that on a go forward basis.

As expected depreciation is going to increase we've talked about that in the February call.

To help you I would tell you that for 2022, we expect depreciation to be about $1 billion.

For the full year.

Sure.

I do thank you.

It sounds like you had a surge in demand at the end of Q2.

As everything opened up so I guess that leading into Q3 I'm just wondering if the shape.

Of the revenue linearity through Q3 kind of looks the reverse of what we saw in Q2, we had a we had a weak start and a strong finish in Q2 do you think we have a strong start and then maybe a weaker finish into Q3, just given that.

The demand surge that we've got going into it.

Yes.

This.

Last quarter, obviously it was unusual.

In.

Because of the Covid restrictions that we had talked about right. So.

Those shipments were.

Scheduled earlier in the quarter, so really reflective of the.

Restrictions lifting and our ability to.

And customers ability to be able to receive that product. So.

You have that noise going into it but.

But as we said.

In the prepared remarks that we did see weakness in.

In the personal electronics.

Market and that weakness.

Is comprehended in the guidance and third quarter.

So thank you Stacy we will go to the next caller. Please.

We will take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Thanks for taking my question.

First one I think you mentioned Q3 is below seasonal because of pressure on the consumer I am curious what about the other segments.

<unk> industrial comm equipment.

Enterprise and so forth do you see their demand is seasonal or different than that.

Yeah, Vivek I would say that as you know we don't forecast.

The out quarter by market.

With the exception when there is something significant.

It's an outlier and hence that's why we're.

Highlighting personal electronics so.

I would just leave it at that that's where we're seeing.

Really.

Most of the weakness.

Alright, and my thoughts, yes, thank you Dave.

Follow up is actually on free cash flow.

If I go back to calendar 'twenty.

Free cash flow was 38% of sales last year. It was 34% now on a trailing 12 month basis, it's just 30%.

And then you're guiding down Q2 below seasonal in Q4, and Q1 tend to be below that also and then you mentioned that youre committed to your Capex plans.

Is this fair representation of how you think about free cash flow margins that we should just expect free cash flow margins to be at the lower end of the target range for the near to medium term.

I'll take that question to a few angles first.

Tactically second quarter.

We pointed out was the revenue came in late in the quarter or a disproportionate amount of their revenue came in late so that means that a lot of.

The cash will start gain accounts receivables as I talked about in the prepared remarks, so thats going to distort some of your trends from cash from a cash flow standpoint, a little bit beyond that big picture. We are very excited about these investments in manufacturing and technology, they're going to.

Continue to position us well for the long term.

Given us the manufacturing.

That formula is needed to support our revenue growth and that we will have capex.

The increase as we have talked about in February in fact.

At that time, we talked about for the next four years from 2022 through 2025 and average Capex Thats, an average of $3 5 billion per year for this year. It looks like we're going to be coming in at about $2 5 billion about as expected it could come in a little higher than that and then obviously since they averaged $3.

You would expect the subsequent years to then come in higher than that number.

Okay. Thank you Vivek, we will go to the next caller. Please.

We'll take our next question from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi, guys I wanted to ask about the supply side of the equation you have a bunch of new facilities that are coming online you talked about breaking ground in Sherman, but before that you have our fab two and then you have <unk>.

So can you just talk to us about when does that capacity come online where it can be a tailwind to revenue and how should we think about the depreciation from those rolling in acknowledging of course that Rafael you just told US we're going to have a $1 billion for depreciation for this year as a whole.

Correct correct. So first.

As I talked about earlier, we're very excited about this investment our fab two and L. Fab.

We're going to have RFID to sometime in the second half this year supporting production and Alpha early 'twenty three.

And then we on Sherman, we just broke ground on that a couple of months ago, and we expect the Sherman facility. The first factory there support revenue in 2025. So that's the that's how you want to think about it from a depreciation standpoint I. Just gave you the $1 billion for this year beyond that and I have already given you.

February to expect about $2 5 billion of depreciation by 2025.

And then from 1 billion to $2 five you can roughly approximate that linearly between the end of 2022% to 25% to get.

The model, how the depreciation will likely come in.

To follow on Ross.

Yes, thanks for that color I guess the final topical side, the chips Act and the equivalent thereof in Europe .

All the numbers you just gave I assume are exclusive of those government policies. How should we think about ti taking advantage of those policies are not and maybe lowering some of those impacts financially on your company.

So correct the numbers that we have given you over the last six months. Prior did not include any benefit from any of those.

Built on.

On the <unk>, specifically is great to see strong bipartisan support of U S. Semiconductor manufacturing that will boost domestic chip production and improve the industry's ability to remain competitive these provisions will be meaningful and support our manufacturing and our roadmap that bill has been passed yet.

So assay when it passes we will be analyzing that.

And as we assess the benefit.

That will get from that and we should be.

Fisher from both of the grant portion and the investment tax rate portion, but as we assess that in more detail, we'll provide you updates as appropriate.

Alright, Thank you Ross.

Sure.

We'll take our next question from Joe Moore Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead.

Great. Thank you I guess going back to the guidance that you've given.

April when you talked about kind of maybe demand to support $5 billion in Q2, and then but you were taking it down to four five because of China locked down can you just give us some sense of how much of that $500 million did you end up capturing how much of this upside reflects upside in other regions just puts us in the context of that original adjustment.

Yes, I would say.

As we said in the prepared remarks, Joe that customers were generally pulling with their original.

Demand.

Forecast right so.

Meeting that.

As we looked at what was going on.

Started the quarter, we were tracking lower.

But as we talked about last quarter customers Werent canceling orders they werent rescheduling, they still wanted to have that product. So.

It's really what.

What made up the.

The majority of that.

Where we came in for the quarter.

Ill.

Yes that does and then if you could just characterize.

Your customers kind of mentality is around inventories at this point, obviously, we have been dealing with hotspots in tight conditions for a while.

Do you feel like your customers in industrial and automotive markets are are looking to build buffer stock inventory.

So this is kind of again, just kind of how are people thinking about that.

Yes.

I think.

Many have reported and we can see in the filings.

Our customers have had that there's clear signs of inventory being built over the last several quarters.

And.

There is discussions on on how much inventory do they hold more permanently.

And those types of things, we'll see how that behavior changes over time I think there are some places.

That probably will stick and probably some places where it won't but.

But I think the most important thing when we look at it because we won't manage our customers' inventory.

But we can manage what we do and we've long believed that owning and controlling our inventory is is really a strategic advantage.

So.

You've seen us take those actions over time, we finished the quarter with just a little over $2 billion of inventory so whenever things do weaken.

We will take that time to replenish inventories that will keep lead times.

Stable and low.

And those are the best things that we can control and what we will do.

As we move through the next few quarters.

So thank you Joe and we'll go to the next caller. Please.

We will take our next question from Chris Danley with Citi. Please go ahead.

Hey, Thanks, guys.

So with the.

The weakness in <unk>, but also the strength in auto and industrial.

Are you or can you take some of that capacity from the weaker parts and <unk>.

Allocated towards the stronger parts and if so how long does that take.

Hi.

Chris we do that constantly.

Tightest level, yes.

The capacity is relatively fungible theres always some.

Some nooks and crannies that are a little.

Different for each.

<unk> technology are each particular bard so.

But at the highest level, yes, we are.

We have been adjusting.

Our capacity over the last two months things have been tied to to deploy that to the best uses and support our long term strategic roadmap.

Okay great.

Yes for my follow up sort of going along with that line of questioning.

You guys have talked about shortages and extended lead times all year or are we seeing any improvement or do you anticipate any improvement there before the end of the year.

Yes, I'll comment in Rockdale, if you want to.

Jump in please do.

Our lead times haven't changed much from from from last quarter.

I think as we look in the out quarters. It really depends on how demand begins to shape up we will have capacity coming online as we've talked about but in any given quarter sequentially, that's not going to make a huge difference but.

We lap a year or several quarters and it really will make make significant.

Significant difference and the capacity that we've got available I agree it's all about.

And our supply that's what we can control right. So we'll be increasing that with RFS II coming online soon.

Alpha shortly after that and then in 'twenty to 'twenty five the first of the four factories in Sherman.

That will.

<unk> increased our ability to to supply the market and by the way as you can see just we just put out a $5 $2 billion of revenue and grew inventory again.

I believe the fourth consecutive quarter. So that gives you also a sense of.

The increased <unk>.

<unk> that we're developing to supply the market.

That's a good point, thank you, Chris and we'll go to the next caller. Thanks guys.

We will take our next question from <unk> Hari with.

With Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Hi, Thanks, so much I had two as well.

First on your pricing strategy going forward.

Just curious with RFS II ramping in <unk> fab ramping over the next.

12 to 18 months and your peers are much more supply constrained than you are and they are all sort of facing inflationary pressures from their foundry partners.

Is there an opportunity for you to be a little bit more aggressive than historical trends and for you to pursue market share or would you look to follow suit and raise pricing along with your peers going forward.

Yes. Thanks for that question I would say as you've seen us behave in.

In the past.

Our approach to pricing Hasnt changed.

As pricing decisions are made.

At the product line level, we've got about 65 different product lines, because they're close to customers close to the market.

Understand what with their peers in the industry are doing so and to your point many of our.

Appears in the market.

Our outsourced.

We do have to take action.

When they see pricing increases from from their suppliers. So I think thats just emphasizes the competitive advantage we have.

Manufacturing and technology and continues to highlight that part of the reason why we're continuing to invest to strengthen that competitive advantage.

One.

Thanks, Dave.

On Opex I think over the past 12 months. Your Opex budget is barely up I think it's up one 1%, 1% plus and what's been a very inflationary environment just curious what the offsets have been.

Over the past 12 months and how should we think about sustainability.

And your model Opex being up kind of low singles, while revenue growing strong double digits. Thank you.

Yes, and I'll happy to address that we are pleased with.

How we are allocating our investment to R&D and SG&A to the best opportunities and that is primarily industrial and automotive as we have talked about also initiatives such as <unk> dot com.

That ultimately strengthen our competitive advantages and maximize our ability to grow free cash flow per share over the long term on the last part of your question on an absolute basis I would expect to increase investments.

Over the next.

Several years as we continue to see strong market opportunities.

Thank you. Thank you.

We'll go to the next caller please.

Thank you. Our next question from Harlan sur with Jpmorgan. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, guys. Thank you for taking my question on finished goods inventory, which is what your direct customer consignment inventories resides there's still 30% below pre pandemic levels theyre down 3% versus last year.

Down slightly sequentially is it fair to assume that this is a reflection that your direct customers continue to pull at a very strong rate just given their demand profile and can you guys get to your target inventory days exiting this year, especially with our fab to grafting.

Yes.

What I would tell you.

Given our.

Factoring process the Bart Starr as web then they go to chip then they go to a finished good overall inventory has been growth I put it out over the last four quarters this last quarter $140 million.

As you said our finished goods is still it's still lean our goal is four four inventory to continue to grow.

We have talked about a target of 130 to 190 days and as I have said before.

I would not be uncomfortable to be at the high end of that range, because ultimately that inventory gives us just tremendous optionality.

Puts us in a really good position to support customers that just given our business model.

Lessons risk on that inventory is nil.

Because of that.

That inventory goes to support.

<unk> that sell to many many customers and have very long lives. So so we feel comfortable.

The increase in inventory.

For that reason, yes, and let me just add that.

Harlan part of your question was is that a reflection of direct customers. It just remind that we have.

70%, we exited last year around 70% of our revenues direct.

That includes.

Revenue going through Ti Dot com.

Which we still believe.

Is going to be a.

<unk> strategic asset for us as we as we move forward.

And what goes through distribution.

Prior comment.

Long believed that owning and controlling that inventory is important we're probably running two weeks or less than that inside of that so when.

When we ship revenue, because we're owning and controlling that inventory. It really is reflective of what customers want inside of that quarter. So you have a follow up.

Yes, thanks for the insights there so I know its ship to location, but wanted to know what the year over year profiles look like for the different geographies.

Yes.

Yes so.

Inside of the quarter compared with a year ago all of the regions were up.

That's the year on year and sequentially they were all up as well so.

We did see those trends in both.

Both the year on year and sequentially. So thank you Harlan we'll go to the next CLR. Please yes. Thank you.

We will take our next question from C. J Muse with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thank you for taking the question I guess first question revisiting and earlier and earlier question around.

The $560 million revenue beat versus the midpoint of your guide for June .

$500 million haircut that you took when you initially guided so I'm curious given that you're starting to see.

Calgary in May.

Is it safe to say that maybe you went above and beyond kind of the run rate and therefore, you recaptured all of that $500 million or was it just a portion of that and then as part of that where do you see upside relative to where you guided before was that isolated to industrial or auto or any particular end market.

Yes C. J can you help me with the first part of your question.

I'm not sure I.

Got it.

Could you just talk a look at that.

The midpoint of your guidance versus what you actually did it was about $560 million better.

And the initial guidance you told us a $500 million, China uncertainty haircut, so really trying to understand.

That 560 came in better was it all China or are there other drivers within that.

Yes, I would say that.

As we as we talked about right that the haircut was so.

So to speak using that that term was primarily due to the COVID-19 restrictions. So so.

Yes.

As they loosened up.

Again customers were pulling to those original forecast so.

We really didn't see anything different than what we would've expected at the beginning of the quarter with the exception of <unk>.

The weakness that we talked about inside of personal electronics.

You have follow up.

Yes. Please.

And the depreciation guide for the year, roughly up 35% half on half and considering for RFS, two youre going to start to depreciate the equipment. When you actually qualify the wafers and begin revenue ing.

Is that kind of.

A ballpark kind of estimate.

And maybe it comes in more like 925, 50, or just trying to understand the moving parts. There given that it's qualification of wafers revenue wafers, which sounds like its really going to be later Q4 that really starts.

Yes, it is an estimate and it could come in a little lower a little higher but right now I would say a $1 billion.

Fair estimate and as I said earlier just to go beyond that.

You can think about a roughly linear from that point.

<unk> 22 to $2 5 billion of depreciation in 2025, and then you can easily get.

A good model for 'twenty, three and 'twenty four.

Thank you.

And we've got time for one more caller please.

We will take our last question from Ambridge.

Robust however, with BMA Securities. Please go ahead.

Alright. Thank you very much Dave I had a question David I had a question on pricing.

Industry pricing has been up high single digit low double last couple of quarters.

The second quarter.

Benefits from pricing, Dave I know last quarter, you had acknowledged that you did see the benefit from pricing. So I was wondering.

What was the impact do you expect that to continue over the next couple of quarters.

Yes, we do.

We did see a benefit in second quarter operation.

And again, our pricing practices haven't changed so we'll continue to price aggressively.

<unk>.

To ensure that we're gaining share and.

So no changes from that standpoint, so we'll just see what happens in the marketplace.

Dave just to sorry, just a clarification as imperfect DSL your.

Data is at a reasonable proxy to use too.

Yesterday, and what pricing advantage <unk> got from from whatever the FAA data spits out.

Yes, so we're just cautious to give a specific number as we as we look at it we've got if you just took units.

Divided by revenue that would give you at an average price, which is what <unk> is doing.

We've got.

Customers that are buying through Ti dot com, they're enjoying the convenience of having product.

Immediately available.

And some regions were doing shipments more than once a day.

The docs are those customers. So there is a convenience.

That they are enjoying they pay a higher price for that.

But.

So you've got that mixing in.

There's other factors.

Is that there is mix and the types of products that we ship.

We have products that we.

For a couple of pennies in products that we sell for thousands of dollars each and depending on either end of that spectrum. It can it can move your ASP.

Your average selling price around so but that said.

<unk> like we've seen over the last.

Several quarters.

Just in price increases that customers for like unlike product that we have seen that that benefit as well.

I'm, sorry, I can't be static.

Got a follow up on that.

Okay.

Yeah.

Thanks, So let me wrap up let me wrap up by reiterating what we have said previously at our core we're engineers and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately our objective and the best metric to measure our progress and generate long term value for our owners is the growth of free cash flow per share.

While we strive to achieve our objective we will continue to pursue our three ambitions. We will act like owners, who will own the company for decades, we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing and we will be a company that we're personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbors when were successful our employees customers.

Communities and owners all benefit.

And have a good evening.

Ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation you may now disconnect.

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Q2 2022 Texas Instruments Inc Earnings Call

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