Q4 2022 Kennametal Inc Earnings Call
Good morning Oliver.
Welcome everyone to kind of metals fourth quarter fiscal 2022 earnings conference call.
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.
After the Speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
I would like to ask a question. During this time somebody about Star then the number one on your telephone keypad.
If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press Star then the number two please.
Please note this event is being recorded.
I'd now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Boyer Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead. Thank you operator welcome everyone and thank you for joining US trade you can't have met our fourth quarter and fiscal 2022 results yesterday.
Yesterday evening, we issued our earnings press release and posted our presentation slides on our website.
Referring to that slide deck on today's call.
William Blair Vice President of Investor Relations joining me on the call today are Chris Rossi, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Pat Watson, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, After Chris and perhaps prepared remarks, we will open the line for questions.
At this time I would like to direct your attention to our forward looking disclosure statement. Today's discussion contains comments that constitute forward looking statements and as such involve a number of assumptions risks and uncertainties that could cause the company's actual results performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by.
Such forward looking statements. These risk factors and uncertainties are detailed in kennametal SEC filings.
In addition, we will be discussing non-GAAP financial measures today.
Reconciliations to GAAP financial measures that we believe are most directly comparable can be found at the back of the slide deck and on our form 8-K on our website and with that I'll turn the call over to Chris. Thank.
Thank you Kelly.
Everyone and thanks for joining the call today before.
Before we get started I'd like to recognize Pat Watson.
This is his first call as our new Chief Financial Officer.
Of course, many of you already know Pat from his most recent role as VP and corporate controller.
And I've had the pleasure of working closely with him since I joined the company I know he'll do a fantastic job for us as CFO .
And his tenure at Kennametal. He has made significant contributions to the organization.
Held leadership roles that span from global finance and acquisitions to supply chain.
And most importantly has extensive knowledge of the company, we will continue to be instrumental in supporting our strategy to improve profitability.
Grow the company.
Welcome.
Thank you, Chris and good morning, everyone I'm excited to be named CFO at this pivotal time for kennametal.
We've had tremendous success transforming the company over the last several years and I believe that there is significant potential for growth and margin expansion in our future too.
I'm excited by our potential and I look forward to meeting many of you on the call today in person over the coming months.
Okay. Thanks, Pat for today's call I'm going to start with a review of the year.
Followed by an overview of the fourth quarter and our growth roadmap for fiscal year, 'twenty, three and beyond including some examples of recent customer wins.
From there Pat will review the quarterly financial results and our outlook.
Finally, I'll make some comments regarding our cash allocation strategy before opening the line for questions beginning.
Beginning on slide two.
Fiscal year 'twenty two it was a very good year as we continue to transform the company.
Sales were up 9% on organic growth of 11%, reflecting a recovery in our end markets pricing for value and to cover inflation and acceleration in our growth initiatives.
Infrastructure reported 14% organic sales growth in metal cutting 9%.
All regions had positive growth with the Americas, leading at 16%.
EMEA at 10% and Asia Pacific at 2%.
Operating leverage was particularly strong year over year, reflecting success achieved in both our commercial and operational excellence initiatives.
<unk> operating margin increased 340 basis points year over year.
A significant improvement, especially given the challenges, which included continuing supply chain issues COVID-19 related lockdowns and absenteeism.
Crane conflict high inflation and the effect of $25 million of temporary cost actions in the first half of fiscal year 'twenty one.
Free operating cash flow for the year was $85 million dampened by a higher cost of inventory and strategically holding additional safety stock to mitigate the effects of supply chain disruptions on our customers.
In summary, we feel very good about delivering a solid year, we nimbly manage through many challenges drove performance improvements and continued to advance our strategic initiatives.
Let's turn to slide three to review the Q4 results.
We ended the year with sales up 3% to $530 million in Q4.
Which was at the top of our outlook range. Despite the effects of the lockdown in China, and our exit from Russia.
Together these amounted to approximately $14 million in the quarter.
The underlying organic growth rate was 7% year over year offset by a 4% FX headwind from the strong U S dollar.
On a year over year basis, all regions and end markets grew.
With aerospace energy and earthworks posting double digit increases in general engineering and transportation in the mid single digits.
It is important to note that pricing represented a large amount of the sales increase in the quarter.
As we've been adjusting prices to mitigate the effects of higher inflation and based on the value delivered to customers.
As we've discussed on previous earnings calls the underlying operating leverage of the business is mast when price covering cost becomes a large portion of the year over year sales change.
As expected operating leverage in the fourth quarter was lower than the yearly average.
Accordingly, Q4, adjusted EBITDA margin was relatively flat this quarter compared to the prior year at 19, 1%.
With net price offsetting raw material costs, and operational excellence initiatives higher volume and lower incentive compensation, mostly mitigating higher manufacturing costs, including costs for depreciation.
COVID-19, absenteeism supply chain constraints and FX.
Free operating cash flow was $52 million for the quarter and adjusted EPS was flat year over year at 53.
Now I'd like to take a minute to reflect on our margin improvement over the last several years.
Slide four compares the EBITDA margin in fiscal year, 2016, which was before we embarked on our transformation journey.
Versus fiscal year 'twenty two.
The sales in these two years were approximately the same but margins now are 660 basis points higher.
Thanks to the structural cost savings achieved from simplification modernization and the additional benefits from our operational and commercial excellence initiatives in fiscal year 'twenty two.
This is a significant accomplishment for the company and our teams with more margin expansion potential to come as volumes increase.
As you know modernization streamlined a lot of factory processes. For example, consider a factory that had 12 presses run by 12 operators before modernizing.
Today that same factory has three presses run by just one operator.
Now in a lower volume environment, perhaps only two of the three presses are currently running but as volume increases third press will also be use and increase in productivity on higher volume without adding any capital or labor.
Beyond these volume related simplification modernization benefits, our operational excellence initiatives, such as Smart factory will also drive further margin expansion and continued improvements in customer service levels.
This improved operational performance combined with our commercial excellence initiatives is positioning us to win in our targeted end markets and applications.
At its core commercial excellence is about efficiently driving growth with new and existing customers.
We're focused on flawless execution using data to inform our commercial decisions and value based pricing to get paid for the value we deliver to our customers.
So our extensive work to simplify our products and structure modernize our factories in the early stage results from commercial and operational excellence are driving increased profitability and set us up well to deliver on our growth roadmap, which is shown on slide five.
This is a new slide that lays out the megatrends share gain initiatives and other growth areas that are positioning us for continued commercial success.
Kennametal has long held leadership position through innovative products and best in class customer support.
Now as I discussed thanks to our modernization investments and ongoing operational excellence initiatives, we're in an even stronger position to drive improved customer service and greater productivity.
And combined with our commercial excellence initiatives, we're driving a larger share of wallet with existing and new customers.
In addition to growing our current base business in this way there are several megatrends that are well aligned with our technical expertise and market exposure. For example, we're a leader in EV Aerospace wind energy and fossil fuel markets and we will continue to provide customers with products that provide productivity improvements in each of.
These growth areas.
And for our many ESG focused customers, we have solutions that will increase productivity, while decreasing energy and resource consumption.
We're also focused on segments of our end markets and application spaces.
That we've historically underserved here's an example.
We're cost effectively extending our reach especially with small to medium sized customers through digital customer targeting and our digital customer experience platform.
Also there are certain applications, including medical micro parts and fit for purpose that we're expanding our product portfolio to serve through our existing channels.
Similarly, we continue to gain share with aerospace customers, where we still have a relatively low share in an EV applications, where we've established an early leadership position.
Finally, we have the opportunity to supplement our organic growth initiatives through acquisitions.
Of course, we'll be disciplined and prudent in this pursuit staying within our core areas of expertise.
The targets will likely be bolt on size and in regions end markets or applications that were under serving.
So that's a high level view of our growth roadmap.
And now we can turn to slide six for some recent commercial wins that give us confidence in our ability to deliver this roadmap.
As I mentioned, we're a leader in innovative tooling in the electric vehicle space and this quarter, we secured our first major win with a supplier to an EV commercial band manufacturer in Europe .
This new win was driven by the success of our innovative products designed specifically for electric vehicles that we've already demonstrated with other customers.
Another success story this quarter was with a tool manufacturer that is diversifying into the semiconductor space.
I need a supplier with expertise and high metal renewable rates.
Tight tolerances and thin walled machining, which is a difficult operation.
This is a great example of how our technical and application engineering, knowhow benefits customers and positions us to win and challenging applications.
Another major win this quarter was with a large aerospace customer that was onshoring titanium parts manufacturing.
In this instance, we provided tooling that significantly improve their productivity by reducing cycle times, 40% and tooling cost 50%.
In the energy space, we continue to win with extrusion machining manufacturers applying our proprietary designs and consistent manufacturing techniques. These wins are opening doors for more opportunities globally.
And finally, you may have seen GE additives press release earlier this quarter announcing we've joined their beta partner program <unk>.
Leveraging our proprietary material expertise for serial production on Ges Binder jet system.
This partnership is further evidence of our leadership position in tungsten carbide additive manufacturing.
Again. These are specific examples of recent wins that align with our growth roadmap and serve to highlight our customer focused innovation capabilities.
And with that let me turn the call over to Pat who will discuss the quarterly results and outlook in more detail.
Thank you, Chris and good morning, again, everyone. Let me begin on slide seven with a review of our fourth quarter operating results on both a reported and an adjusted basis.
We continue to successfully execute our initiatives during the quarter in the face of headwinds from inflation Lockdowns in China and foreign exchange for the quarter sales of 530 million improved 3% year over year and 7% on an organic basis from 516 million in the fourth quarter of last year.
As a result of the strong U S dollar foreign currency had a significant negative effect of 4% on sales and there was no effect due to business days.
Adjusted operating expenses decreased year over year to $102 million or 19, 3% of sales.
Adjusted EBITDA margin was relatively flat at 19, 1% versus 19, 2% in the prior year quarter may.
Maintaining our margin in this inflationary environment is a reflection of our focus on pricing for value and tight cost control.
We're a bit of perspective prior to the completion of simplification modernization.
Last time EBITDA margin exceeded 19% was during the third and fourth quarters of FY 19, when quarterly sales exceeded $600 million.
This is another validation point of the structural cost improvements we have made over the last few years.
The adjusted effective tax rate in the quarter was 27, 6% a more normalized levels in the previous year due to higher pre tax income this quarter.
We reported GAAP earnings per share of <unk> 50 versus <unk> 41 in the prior year period.
On an adjusted basis EPS was <unk> 53.
The same as in the prior year quarter.
The main drivers of our adjusted EPS performance are highlighted on the bridge on slide eight.
Effective operations this quarter amounted to approximately <unk>.
This reflects price offsetting raw material cost increases operational excellence initiatives volume and lower incentive compensation, mostly mitigating higher manufacturing costs, including costs from depreciation COVID-19 related absenteeism and supply chain constraints.
Axis and currency both amounted to <unk> <unk> this quarter.
Detailed full year results and our full year EPS bridge can be found on pages 17, and 18 in the appendix.
Slides nine and 10 detailed a favorable performance and continuing progress we have achieved in our segments this quarter.
Metal cutting sales increased 7% organically.
FX affected sales by a negative 6% in the quarter and there was no effect from business days, the Americas and EMEA posted year over year sales increases with the Americas, increasing 12% and EMEA at 6%.
Asia Pacific declined by 1% due in large parts of the COVID-19, Lockdowns, which lasted approximately two thirds of the quarter.
From an end market perspective on a year over year basis strengthened demand is broad based.
Aerospace led again this quarter with strong double digit growth of 21% energy was up 9% followed by general engineering up 6% and transportation at 4% despite ongoing supply chain challenges.
Adjusted operating margin decreased slightly to 40 basis points year over year to 11, 3% compared to 11, 7% in the prior year quarter.
Price offsetting raw material cost increases operational excellence initiatives.
<unk> and lower incentive compensation, mostly mitigated higher manufacturing costs, including costs from depreciation COVID-19, absenteeism supply chain constraints and FX.
Turning to infrastructure on slide 10.
Organic sales increased 7% year over year in the quarter with FX and negative 2% effect and no effect due to business days.
All regions grew with the largest increase year over year in Asia Pacific at 9%, the Americas at 7% and EMEA at 5%.
All end markets were positive with energy and earthworks up double digits at 12% and 10%, respectively and general engineering up 1%.
Adjusted operating margin decreased slightly by 50 basis points to 14% from $14 five in the prior year quarter.
Reduced incentive compensation and the benefits from operational excellence initiatives.
Partially mitigated manufacturing performance challenges due mainly from supply chain constraints and inflation.
Price continues to cover raw material cost increases on a dollar basis.
Now turning to slide 11 to review, our balance sheet and free operating cash flow.
We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position healthy balance sheet and debt maturity profile during.
During the quarter, we amended and extended our $700 million revolver, pushing the maturity out five years and removing the interest coverage covenant.
At fiscal year end, we had combined cash and revolver availability of approximately $767 million.
Primary working capital increased year over year to $638 million due mainly to increases in inventory, partially offset by higher payables as Chris mentioned the increase in inventory was due mainly to higher raw material costs and a strategic decision to increase safety stocks of both raw materials and finished goods.
To meet customer needs in the current challenging supply chain environment.
On a percentage of sales basis primary working capital decreased to 31, 2%.
Our fourth quarter free operating cash flow was $52 million.
Down from $65 million in the prior year quarter, due mainly to higher inventory and higher capital spending.
Net capital expenditures for the quarter were $37 million, an increase of $7 million from the prior year, bringing the total net capital spending for the year to $96 million.
Capital was slightly lower than expected in the quarter, mainly due to supply chain constraints and the associated challenges with equipment delivery.
While we continue to invest in the business. We also continue to return cash to the shareholders. We paid a dividend of $17 million in the quarter and continued to execute our $200 million share repurchase program in the quarter $35 million of shares were repurchased bringing the total to $85 million for the year.
A full balance sheet can be found on slide 19 in the appendix.
Now, let's turn to slide 12 and review the outlook.
Starting with the first quarter, we expect sales to be in the range of $480 to $500 million.
At the midpoint. This implies a sequential decline of approximately seven 5% slightly better than the normal seasonality of negative 8% to 10%.
As a reminder, we normally see a sequential drop in Q4 to Q1 due to the seasonality of the construction business and infrastructure and the summer holiday season in EMEA.
FX is expected to be approximately a $30 million year over year revenue headwind in the quarter and a corresponding approximate $6 million operating income headwind.
At the mid point of this sales outlook, we have assumed there will be no significant change in the supply chain challenges in transportation.
We have assumed that demand will not be adversely affected and further lockdowns associated with COVID-19.
And lastly, we are planning for the typical in the first quarter extended vacation in summer shutdowns for our customers.
Assuming our current market outlook, we expect adjusted operating income to be a minimum of $45 million, reflecting the inflationary environment that we're in.
We expect our pricing actions of approximately $30 million to offset raw material salary and general inflation on a dollar basis.
Pension income remains positive. Unlike most companies, but is expected to decline approximately $4 million due.
Due to lower return assumptions for our primary U S pension portfolio. It is important to note that our primary U S. Pension plan remains overfunded with no cash contributions are expected to be needed.
The adjusted effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 26% to 28% and depreciation and amortization will increase $3 million to $4 million year over year.
Lastly, we expect free operating cash flow to be neutral.
Slightly better than the normal seasonal pattern.
For the full year outlook, let's turn to slide 13.
Visibility, particularly in the second half remains limited but.
Is our assumption that underlying demand will continue to improve albeit at a lower rate.
Energy Aerospace and earthworks are likely to lead our end markets and transportation is expected to continue to be challenged by supply chain constraints.
General engineering will be affected by transportation and the general economy.
With regard to the quarterly sequence, we expect our sales to approximate a normal sequential growth patterns throughout the year.
We have also assumed that the Ukraine conflict will continue to affect our customers mainly in Europe , but it's the availability and price of natural gas will not materially affect our business.
Also as Chris mentioned in this highly inflationary environment the underlying operating leverage of the business is masked by significant price increases that are offsetting cost inflation on a dollar basis.
Moving on to other variables for the full year, we expect an adjusted effective tax rate of 26% to 28%.
Depreciation and amortization is expected to increase 15% to $20 million year over year to a range of $140 million to $145 million.
Pension income for the full year is expected to drop by approximately $14 million due to the lower return assumptions on the portfolio.
Capital expenditures will be in the range of $100 million to $120 million since supply chain disruption and logistical constraints are expected to continue in the near term.
Over the long term, we still expect our capital investment needs will be approximately $120 million per year.
Primary working capital is expected to be between 31% to 33% this year, reflecting our higher inventory strategies to mitigate supply chain risk.
Together, these assumptions and forecasts or expected to translate to free operating cash flow generation of approximately 100% of adjusted net income in line with our long term target.
And with that I'll turn it back over to Chris. Thanks.
Thanks, Pat Please turn to slide 14 for a summary of our capital allocation approach.
On the left hand table, you can see the capital allocation for fiscal year 2016 through fiscal year 'twenty one.
Many of you know this allocation approach quite well.
Dividends have been a consistent method by which we return cash to shareholders and I should note that we maintain the dividend throughout the downturn, which many companies were unable to do.
But for the most part our capital allocation. During these years was focused on simplifying the company and modernizing our facilities.
And in fact, we invested an incremental $300 million in capex and $200 million in cash restructuring costs. During this timeframe.
As I mentioned earlier this capital allocation approach has served us well with margins, increasing 660 basis points on approximately the same revenue level.
Now that the simplification modernization capital investments and restructuring are behind us combined with our strong balance sheet and cash flow.
We are executing on the capital allocation strategy as shown in the right hand table.
There are three fundamental priorities here capital investments, returning cash to shareholders and acquisitions.
Capital investments will continue to focus on keeping our modernized facility state of the art.
Driving further productivity and customer service improvements and advancing our digital customer experience platform.
We will also remain committed to returning cash to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and continuation of our stock repurchase program.
Finally acquisitions.
Which we see as a strategic lever to accelerate growth in core areas of expertise and underserved regions end markets and applications.
Importantly, this capital allocation strategy works hand in hand, with our growth roadmap and taken together these reinforce our ability to invest in the company for growth now.
Now please turn to slide 15 for a brief summary, before we open the call for questions.
We had a great year in fiscal year, 'twenty, two and I'd like to take this opportunity to congratulate the entire kennametal team on the results.
Fiscal year 'twenty three we expect the end market recovery to continue but visibility remains limited.
<unk>, we've proven our ability to operate successfully in an uncertain macro environment.
We will continue to focus on the things we can control.
In executing our growth roadmap through our commercial and operational excellence initiatives and with that operator. Please open the line for questions.
Thank you.
I'll ask a question you'd like to ask a question. During this time simply one star then the number one on your telephone.
If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press Star then the number two today's first question comes from Stephen Volkmann of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking the question.
If we could just lead US Chris can you just talk a little bit about the supply chain issues that youre seeing and I'm curious if you can kind of delineate between what's impacting kennametal directly and what is more indirect with respect to kind of your customers.
Sure, Steve I would say that in general the.
Effects of the supply chain has been greater on our customers and also it manifests itself in a situation where they have they seem to have a lot of backlog.
And.
But they are constrained by how much they can produce so that's consequently holds back our revenue from what I think it would.
It would be higher if those supply chain constraints will go away that being said, we do especially in the infrastructure business, we have some for jeans and castings and those type of things, but so far Steve we've worked our way through those type of.
Supply chain constraints. So again, mostly the effects. Steve is on is on the customers and of course as you know in transportation. That's that's what's really holding transportation back seems to be plenty of demand, but there are highly constrained.
Because of the chip issue and then they had the Ukraine conflict with wiring harnesses and those type of things.
Okay, great. Thanks for that and then maybe just a quick follow up you guys have said numerous times that youre sort of covering inflation costs with price on a dollar basis, but I'm wondering how you look at that longer term because obviously, if we're in an inflationary environment. In this sort of continues then covering it on a dollar.
This is going to be kind of margin dilutive.
In perpetuity for perhaps wondering how this kind of plays out over time is there an opportunity to actually kind of recapture the margin as well as the dollars.
Well I think.
Steve first of all I hope this high inflation is not in perpetuity alright, So we'll see what happens with the globe, but I think in the mid term.
Our long term targets they were predicated on a typical inflationary environment. So.
The current inflationary environment as you correctly pointed out when you do the math will lower the margins with price just covering the inflationary effects, but that being said and what we try to to help you with this.
Especially in the first quarter in terms of your modeling is we can still be confident in saying that the underlying op relate operating leverage of the business that we would expect from the simplification modernization investments when theres actually a volume increase that equals piece volumes with plants, we still feel very good that.
That will lever at our typical.
Typical in the typical range that I think many of the analysts on the phone are using something around 50%.
So.
We're going to continue to try to provide you information. So you can sort through that.
But the underlying operating leverage still still is within the business now the other the other thing is on pricing. We always are we always are pricing for value.
And we're going to continue to do that and while we've been on that journey for a little while I think there's still some more opportunity there so that could help us that could have.
Eat into the the effect of the math, Steve, but that's the way I'm thinking about it.
Okay I appreciate it I'll pass it on.
And our next question today comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi, Thanks, Good morning, guys and.
Congratulations Pat.
On the new opportunity and look forward to working with you.
So can.
Can you maybe just kind of start by just you guys have given a lot of good details.
Some of the puts and takes for 2023 can you maybe just give us a little bit more on just like how you expect the cadence of the year to go and if you could provide any commentary, particularly around like.
Yes, tungsten pricing, how that's impacting the business today and how you would expect it to impact that going forward that'd be helpful.
Yes, I think the cadence in terms of revenue.
We expect it to follow the normal sequential pattern.
Joe.
And if you listen to the Pat in his opening remarks.
That's based on a view or an outlook of the year.
Sort of flat to maybe some maybe some growth right.
So we are assuming for example that transportation.
Flattish and we're not expecting any major improvement in their supply chain.
Constraints, but they are working on the problem and it is expected to get better so that could be an opportunity in terms of.
Doing something with revenue that's higher than the sequential <unk>.
We also we also know that energy continues to be strong and then and then same thing with aerospace that continues to recover.
The real question is general engineering and that certainly affected by transportation.
But we've kind of tried to assume thats linked it's linked to <unk>.
The general manufacturing indices, which are tied to GDP in those kind of things and so we're assuming.
But that is still kind of kind of flat. If you look at a lot of the manufacturing indices.
Have.
They have moderated but they are still in positive territory. So our feeling is that.
But if things get things could actually get better based on our underlying assumption that we're going to simply follow the normal seasonal trend alright.
And then your next question was what I am sorry could you repeat it.
Sure, Yes, no problem just since the impact of tungsten.
What impact that's having on your business today.
You tend to benefit in a rising environment, but then there is some margin pressure as is tompkins starts to come down.
If you would.
That's expected to impact 2023.
Yes.
Given our given our outlook, but what I basically said is that volumes will be sort of flat to maybe slightly increasing in an environment. We expect the tungsten prices to be stable.
But you are right.
Volume does dramatically reduced that's when especially in infrastructure where the.
Price comes down there is there is an adjustment in prices that we do we have to factor in but we're not we're not expecting that to be the case in FY 'twenty three but he's got the right modeling thought process in your head.
And then the other <unk> got it.
Frankly.
Frankly, it took a lot of.
A lot of the inventory increase was just purely on the paying for higher material cost was driven by the by the tons.
Yeah.
Got it that's helpful and if I could sneak one more in.
So kind of a flat volume environment clearly you guys have made a lot of.
A lot of improvement behind the scenes and you referenced some of those on the modernization initiatives.
How do you think about then like the I know there is no.
Not a perfect way to measure drop through in a flat environment.
How do you think of like the potential margin improvement that we could still see in a flat environment.
We head into next year.
Yes, I think I guess, what I would tell our investors is that were we.
We clearly based on our modernization investments will benefit us higher piece volume runs through the factory, but your question is in a scenario, where that's just kind of flat.
And so that's one of the reasons why we teed up this operational excellence initiative that we've been talking about is there.
Still are expecting our plans to drive productivity, even on even in flat volume.
Year over year.
Just what good companies do and and now that we've got a modernized footprint, we've got sort of a good baseline to build off of that.
So our expectations, we're still going to drive productivity improvement and as I mentioned, we will try to as we go through the year, we'll try to we'll try to highlight that but.
Given the high inflation in the price covering inflation that that tends to dampen the.
The math, so we're going to try it we'll try to sort that out for you Joe but there is an expectation that we drive improve margins even in a flat environment.
Okay, great. Thank you.
And our next question today comes from Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning.
We look forward to working more with you Pat.
In terms of I guess the.
My first question.
Really on that margin point, so in the current first fiscal quarter.
You've got sort of flat to slightly up volumes year on year operating margin down year on year, maybe 100 150 bps.
Just trying to understand.
Have you.
Previous comment around trying to sort of work.
Look to get margins up.
If we do see that sort of similar.
Very low single digit volume growth for the year as a whole like youre seeing in Q1. When do you think the margins might be able to turn up year on year based on current sort of price.
Initiatives on the cost outlook.
Yes, I think when we looked at that outlook.
Julian because theres, so many moving pieces here.
One of the big ones is obviously.
We've taken pricing actions and the timing of which those begin to flow through the P&L along with our assumptions on covering inflation, it's not an exact science as to how the how the costs are going to roll in we feel that pretty good on a on an annualized basis. The price will will cover the inflation on a dollar basis, but in any given quarter.
<unk>.
Where are we exactly are in that process is.
Has surpassed the risk to it and I think frankly that as we did the roll up from the various segments there might be a little conservatism in there in terms of where we're going to be on that curve that will just be natural.
And then I think the.
I think as I talked about the revenue I think we're being pretty conservative on where we are with revenue.
I think the strength of our our end markets are there, but there are some issues on a regional basis like just how quickly China will will recover from all their all of their Lockdowns and then of course, everyone is watching Europe to see what will happen there.
So I think Theres I think theres, some potential versus what the outlook would say in terms of driving higher margins just naturally Julien there are so many moving pieces that I think I think our guys frankly might be a little bit conservative.
Because some of the stuff. They just don't know we're in a little bit of a different environment than we've ever operated before.
That's fair, but I guess.
The point would be Chris.
When the margins are turning its sort of second half.
The fiscal year is when you're likely to see margins expand is that fair.
Yes, I think that Thats.
That would be a reasonable assumption because thats when volumes, that's what volumes will start to.
As we said, we sort of forecasted flat to increasing volumes and that would happen in the second half of the year assuming.
Just on the assumptions that Pat laid out.
That makes sense and then just a quick follow up.
On the sort of the price and the cost commentary. So I think you've talked about that price tailwind of $30 million in the.
The current quarter.
Just to understand so that I think you said, that's covering the raw material wage and general inflation.
Cost is is that right that that 30 million covers all those kind of three <unk>.
Cost buckets.
And just to understand is it apples to apples when you talk about the 22 million raw material cost increase in Q4.
That just rule mats, excluding wages and general inflation, just trying to understand those.
<unk> is a bit better.
Julien So yes, when we think about that $30 million in the first quarter, absolutely that is covering all at all three sources of inflation material wage in general yes, as we talked about <unk> 22 in the fourth quarter that is purely just raw material.
That's helpful. Thank you.
Thanks Julien.
And our next question today comes from Chris Dankert of Loop capital. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question.
I guess, Chris any explicit cost savings goals tied to kind of a smart factory and productivity initiatives for fiscal 'twenty three or is this really more aimed at offsetting wage and other manufacturing cost increases here.
Yes on the productivity.
Well as we talked about we believe it.
<unk>.
The environment and so far the competitors' reaction to.
The prices that we should be able to cover those three sources of inflation with price.
So on the productivity side, we kind of look at that as.
What is what is best in class sort of driving productivity and those are the expectations, we set for our factories. So.
It's more of a it's more of a goal based on what we think is operation what equals operational excellence versus we backed into a cost number and so you got to go for that productivity.
That makes sense.
Yes that does make sense.
Okay. Thanks for that and then I guess thinking about the the mid point of margin guidance well low end mid point. However, you guys want to frame it up on the margin guidance for fiscal <unk>.
Thats down meaningfully year over year, I assume tungsten and Brent price cost as the key headwinds there, but anything else you could kind of unpack in terms of the moving parts around the margin guidance.
Yes.
That the margin first quarter, a couple of drivers number one as we talk about the FX.
Planned or headwind from an operating income perspective.
Then on.
On the price piece basically just simply offsetting the cost inflation that we have in the business and as Chris commented a bit earlier.
Probably a little bit of conservatism in there as well as we think about where that number sits in from the outlook perspective.
Okay.
Just trying to understand that piece, though as we look at the full year in terms of what the application is for margin.
30 million in the first quarter for pricing what are you kind of assuming in terms of full year price at this point just based on what you've announced I suppose.
In terms of when we think about the full year, obviously, we've given some color here for the first quarter.
What we would expect over the course of the year is that it will still.
Still cover the raw material and so youre not going to see from a margin perspective.
Margins expanded based on price.
Alright fair enough.
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes the question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to Chris Rossi for closing remarks.
Thanks, operator, and thanks, everyone for joining the call today as I said we.
Feel very good about FY 'twenty two.
The challenging environment that we're operating in and I'm really looking forward to FY 'twenty three I'm confident that we're going to make great progress on our initiatives.
Which include executing and delivering on that growth math through our commercial and operational excellence initiatives.
I appreciate everyone's interest and support and reach out to Kelly. If you have any follow up questions. Thank you.
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