Q2 2022 Open Lending Corp Earnings Call
[music].
Good afternoon, and welcome to open lending second quarter 2022 earnings call. During the presentation. All participants will be in a listen only mode. Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session at that time.
Please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.
Time during the conference you need to reach an operator, Please press star zero.
As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.
On the call today are John <unk>, Chairman, and CEO , Ross, Jesup, President and COO and Chuck Joe CFO Earl.
Earlier today the company posted its second quarter 2022 earnings release to its Investor Relations website.
In the release, you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call before.
Before we begin I'd like to remind you that this call may contain estimates and other forward looking statements that represent the company's view as of today August four 2022 open lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances. Please refer to today's earnings release, and our filings with the SEC for more information.
Certain factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements and now I'll pass the call over to Mr. Flynn. Please go ahead.
Thank you operator, and good afternoon, everyone.
Thanks again for joining us today for open lending second quarter 2022 earnings conference call.
I will briefly discuss the highlights of our results for the quarter.
How we are performing given the current industry and economic condition.
Ross will then discuss current industry trends and open lendings relative performance and prior cycles.
And then lastly, Chuck will go over the financial and thoughts for the remainder of the year.
For the second quarter, our results were in line with our expectations. Despite continued challenging economic and industry headwinds to our business with our results modestly growing quarter over quarter.
The industry is still facing low levels of dealer inventory due to the continued global semiconductor chip shortages and the supply chain challenges and.
In addition, and equally significant are inflated used car values impact on affordability to the near and non prime consumers.
We began the second quarter of 2022, there were indications that fundamentals, we're beginning to stabilize and then expectation that the second half of the year would lead to higher auto transaction volume.
<unk> to the first half of the year.
Instead continued lockdowns in Asia, and the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, collectively dampened the supply to fuel recovery.
Even more notable has been the impact of a 40 year high record of inflationary condition.
And the impact on consumers budgets and the federal Reserve's monetary tightening response of 75 basis point hike.
June and July .
The results of high inflation and higher borrowing costs.
Consumer sentiment at the lowest level seen in our company's history.
Despite these industry headwinds our businesses performed well our current expectations for full year 2022 auto originations that open lending are projected to be in line with full year 2021.
While the current run rates that many of the universal banks implies auto lending originations will be down over 20% year over year. So.
We remain focused on what we can control.
<unk> investing in our go to market sales strategy to capture more of our significant and growing Tam.
In the first half of the year, we increased our sales and account management teams by 23%.
The individuals we've hired have been to have deep experience in the auto loan origination space.
Particular with credit unions and banks.
While some players in our ecosystem are holding flat or even reducing their employee base. During this period of economic uncertainty.
We are actively hiring high quality talent and positioning ourselves to take market share.
Although early we have seen good traction on these investments.
It is worth noting that during the second quarter, our non OEM business, primarily credit Union.
Proves certified was 27% year over year.
During the quarter, we signed 18, new customers and had 10 lenders certify their first loan in the quarter.
We also further grew our existing customer base with our top 10, non OEM customers, increasing their certification volume by 33% in the second quarter of 'twenty, two as compared to Q2 'twenty one.
Another area of focus has been on enhancing lenders protection by continuing to invest in the platform and the infrastructure to support our growth as well as improving lender onboarding reporting and claims administration capabilities and investing in development resources.
Early indications support improved Onboarding and cycle times from contract signing to our first certified loan and revenue.
These initiatives and associated investments are all to support our large growing Tam.
According to a recent assessment prepared for us by a third party now totals approximately $270 billion for auto loan originations, which is up 8% from the study prepared prior to our public listing.
In addition, there is approximately $40 billion Tam related to the auto refinance opportunity.
This represents 32% of our search this quarter and is expected to continue to perform well even with the current macroeconomic backdrop.
Based on the recent Tam analysis, we have penetrated less than 2% market share, leaving a significant room for growth.
As you know we bring together the various players in the auto retail ecosystem offering a very compelling value proposition to each.
We enable lenders to make loans to consumers.
Otherwise not make deepening their relationships with other existing customers and helping forge relationships with new customers.
The loans made through our lenders protection program provides yields that are often exceed that of our customers prime portfolio with lower risk to the lender.
The ultimate beneficiary is the underserved near and non prime consumer who receives access to credit a larger range of lenders with higher loan amounts better rates at appropriate down payments, which is even more important in today's environment, where consumers affordability is being squeezed.
The benefits we offer are needed now more than ever.
In addition to the massive underserved and growing Tam and our mission to help both lenders and consumers.
We have considerable moat around our business with over 20 years of proprietary data.
<unk> underwriting decision and our exclusive relationships with for a range of insurance partners.
This moat continues to widen as we make strategic investments in new data technology and talent.
We believe our value proposition to the various players in the auto retail ecosystem supports our confidence in the resiliency of our business through any cycle and gets us even more excited about our long term opportunities.
A few reminders about our business as we head into potentially slower economic growth.
First and foremost we will maintain our discipline and rigor at all times in our underwriting process. During this economic <unk>.
Contractions.
In the second quarter, we adjusted our underwriting models.
Optimized for the health of our portfolio from a risk perspective.
As you are all aware, we do not take balance sheet risk and we will continue to prudently manage our balance sheet to ensure we maintain financial flexibility.
In the end, we will continue to target growth rates in excess of industry growth rates.
It never at the expense of our commitment to managing risks.
Our business fundamentals and our long term outlook are strong.
I would now like to turn the call over to Ross, who will provide more details on what we are currently seeing in the auto lending industry.
Well as a comparison to how the industry performed during the recession of 2008 to 2009.
Ross.
Thanks, John .
As John stated I would like to focus on two topics today.
First let me turn to auto industry trends.
Manheim used vehicle value index prices in June decreased one 3% from May 2022.
But we're still noticed sleep.
Nine 7% compared to June 2021, and for the year remain at historical 25 year highs.
Wholesale used vehicle prices continued to increase in the first half of the year.
Average used car prices now 28000 versus 19000, prepaid debit and increase of 47%.
New vehicle inventory is building at a more measured rate compared to expectations. We began this year.
2022, new vehicle Saar industry estimates have been revised downward three times and by 1.6 million units. This year clearly an indication of continued supply side challenges.
Average instead of dollars per vehicle, a leading indicator of inventory availability.
Noticeably below historical levels.
In June 'twenty, 'twenty, one Oems, we're offering $2700 per vehicle incentives.
As compared to approximately 1200 who'd vehicle in June of 2022.
While these are headwinds currently facing our industry. The number of new vehicle sales is forecasted to grow 5.2% per annum over the next five years, but could clearly grow more quickly considering the new vehicle Saar has been running at two to 3 million units below historical levels and.
Finally, the average age of a vehicle on the road is as high as it's ever been at over 12 years old further adding to the number of units of pent up demand and the opportunity for us ahead.
Now to move on to my second topic, we continue to compare and contrast current economic conditions against prior recessions, specifically 2008 2009.
During that time credit unions grew deposits and loan volumes each year in the last recession, suggesting that volumes can continue to grow through a downturn.
While the value of used vehicles declined and used auto sales decreased in the last recession, both returned to pre crisis levels within a year.
Given the tight supply our current belief is that price levels will not decline as precipitously as it did during the great financial crisis.
90% of the lenders using lenders protection reach their targeted goals.
Lessons learned from the remaining 10% have enabled the company to improve its risk based pricing model.
Nick versus stand versus normal and L. P score.
So some prime customers will fall into the near prime market due to the economic conditions, creating growth in our total addressable market.
We expect the carrier appetite and capacity will not be an issue as the bulks need to increased two times the levels in the great financial crisis to greater net economic loss for insurers.
Auto lending has definitely performed better than other consumer asset classes as cars and car payments are prioritized over other consumer discretionary spending.
There's an industry adage that you can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house to work.
Accordingly, we are optimistic about our core competencies in the auto lending space.
With that I would like to turn the call over to Chuck to review Q2's in further detail as well as to provide updated thoughts on the full year 2022 outlook Jud.
Thanks, Ross during the second quarter of 2022, we facilitated 44531 certified loans compared to 46408 certified loans in Q2 of 'twenty one.
43944 certified loans in Q1 of 'twenty two.
In addition, as John stated earlier, we executed contracts with 18, new customers during the quarter and had 10, new lenders certify their first loan in the quarter.
Total revenue for the second quarter of 2022 was $52 million as compared to $61 1 million in the second quarter of 2021.
I would like to point out that if you exclude the ASC 606 change in estimated revenues associated with profit share from each quarter Q2 of 'twenty. Two revenue is flat year over year on a lower number of certified loans as a result of our focus on higher average unit economics and quality of credit in our portfolio.
To break down total revenues in the second quarter 2022 profit share revenue represented $29 2 million.
Program fees were $20 7 million in claims administration fees and other were approximately $2 2 million.
Now to further break down the $29 $2 million in profit share revenue in Q2.
Profit share associated with new originations in the second quarter of 2022 was $26 3 million or $591 per certified loan.
As compared to $27 million or $582 per certified loan in the second quarter of 2021.
Also included in profit share revenue in Q2 of 'twenty two was $2 8 million change in estimated future revenues from certified loans originated in previous periods, primarily as a result of positive realized portfolio performance due to lower claims and lower severity of losses, which was partially offset by higher.
Prepaid and increasing in severity of losses as expected in future periods.
Change in estimated future revenues was $11 8 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Gross profit was $47 million and gross margin was 90% in the second quarter of 2022 as.
As compared to $57 million and gross margin of 93% in the second quarter of 2021.
Selling general and administrative expenses were $14 1 million in the second quarter of 2022 compared to $12 1 million in the previous year quarter.
The increase was primarily due to additional employees to support our growth with a focus on our go to market sales strategy and investment in our technology with both both of which John mentioned earlier.
Operating income was $32 8 million in the second quarter of 2022 compared to $44 9 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Net income for the second quarter of 2022 was $23 1 million compared to $76 million in the second quarter of 2021.
As a reminder, second quarter of 2021, we recognized a one time gain on the extinguishment extinguishment of the tax receivable agreement of $55.
$4 million.
Basic and diluted earnings per share was <unk> 18 cents.
In the second quarter of 2022 as compared to <unk> 60 in the previous year quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2022 was $34 million as compared to $46 1 million in the second quarter of 2021.
There's a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.
Adjusted operating cash flow for the quarter was $34 6 million as compared to $30 5 million in the second quarter of 2021, a 13% increase year over year.
We exited the quarter with $366 8 million and total assets of which $167 7 million was an unrestricted cash of $106 7 million was in contract assets.
And $66 5 million in net deferred tax assets.
We had $159 3 million and total liabilities of which $144 9 million was in outstanding debt.
Now moving to our guidance for 2022.
Based on the first half of 2022 results and trends into the third quarter.
We are revising our guidance ranges for full year 2022 as follows.
Total certified loans to be between 155000 and 185000.
Total revenue to be between $175 million and $205 million.
Adjusted EBITDA to be between $110 million and $135 million.
And adjusted operating cash flow to be between $115 million and $145 million.
Despite the industry headwinds, we remain confident in the resiliency of our business and our ability to navigate through the supply and affordability constraints.
However, these industry and economic challenges have impacted our growth outlook in the near term.
In our guidance, we took the following factors into consideration.
We adjusted our program underwriting with a focus on optimizing the health and quality of our portfolio from a credit perspective.
Continued disruption in transportation networks and raw material shortages.
The globe global semiconductor chip shortages.
Low levels of dealer inventory and dealer sentiment.
The investments we are making in the business.
Continued strength of our refinance program and the value proposition it offers consumers.
The rate of growth, where an index of public auto lender financial institutions, which peaked in the second quarter of 2021 at 21% and contracted to negative 2% in the second quarter of 2022.
The affordability index of our target credit score due to continue inflated used car values, and finally inflation and rising interest rates and overall consumer sentiment, which perhaps has had the most significant waiting on our guidance considerations.
While we model and analyze the industry supply chain and end market build conditions the visibility on federal reserve policy can be less clear.
As the Fed's guidance has changed from our view that inflation would be transitory to tighter monetary policy consumer and dealer sentiment dropped considerably.
With consumer spending slowing dramatically as the fed noted that it will likely become appropriate to slow the pace of increases as they assess how cumulative policy adjustments affect the economy and inflation.
We will continue to keep a watchful eye on the air for most of the policy. In addition to the fundamentals that matter most of our sales outlook.
Now in closing I'd like to note that the midpoint of our revised guidance is in line with last year as it relates to certified loans, which grew 82% and revenue which grew nearly 70% in full year 2021, excluding any impact from ASC 606 change an estimate of revenues.
We provide a true value proposition to our customers, we have limited near term capital investment requirements and no near term maturities on our debt.
We will continue to maintain financial flexibility with a strong balance sheet and cash position and an overall conservative financial policy, while investing in our business during challenging economic times, when we stand ready to capitalize on the pent up demand.
We want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we will now take your questions.
All right and ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to register for a question you can do so by dialing one or that's one followed by the four on your telephone keypad right now and you're going to hear three towns to acknowledge your request and if a question has been answered you'd like to withdraw you can dial one.
Three okay. So once they get to queue up for questions. Today, It's one for one followed by the four on your telephone keypad right now.
All right. Our first question comes from the line of Napoli from William Blair You May now proceed.
Thank you Hey, good afternoon, John and Chuck.
Appreciate the question, Hey, Bob I guess alright.
Hope you're doing well.
So I guess, just I mean, obviously it.
Nichols environment.
In the auto space right now so I know Heath.
He was surprised I think on the guidance.
Estimates, but what are your thoughts on how youre doing from a market share perspective, and as we lap tougher year. If you look into 2023 and ongoing what is your feel for what the right growth rate should be.
For your company.
Yes, yes.
This is Jeff go ahead John .
No I was just going to say you can answer the percentage chocolate.
I think we kind of.
If I had to point out.
Sorry, we are about.
Not yet.
The growth ahead of us.
But the numbers that we're heading given.
First of all these other lenders.
The credit unions are continuing to be excited about.
What we have to offer.
We offer it.
Funding rates are always going to be way below everybody else.
Given the new Tam that we had gone.
Gone out and asked to get done.
From the same company that did it why we took the company public I was thrilled to see that attacks the ground.
That's up 270 billion just on the.
Purchase side and.
<unk> 40 billion on the refinance side.
Yes.
Two numbers combined.
Makes it about $60 million.
60 billion greater than what the Tam was when we started this.
Public.
Path here, so I think that there's a huge runway ahead of us.
And again that was primarily the credit union space the bags the refinance space.
I think with the.
Cars, starting to come back out I think we're going to see a lot of growth.
Yes.
Credit.
Go ahead Bob.
Yes.
Well, what we believe and we have been forecasting is that.
If you track used car values and how we see them declining slowly, but we see them.
Not not being into this.
We think we're pretty conservative on our forecast and realistic as well that is going to be late 'twenty. Three early 'twenty four before they were down to a level that will result in.
The change in the affordability, making.
Any of these are loans a lot more attractive I believe the near and non prime folks who are on the sidelines.
They are.
There's going to be a pent up demand.
And it's because it's going to be as soon as supply increases we are going to be taking advantage of that I think in the meantime, we have the ability to pivot and keep going after our lenders.
Helped refinance to put these consumers at a better state.
Yes.
Quality side I'm sorry.
Alright, no problem.
Yes.
Our average our average score of our portfolio is about 60 about 640, <unk> alright, so with that in mind I don't consider SBA.
In the subprime and the non prime.
When we're looking at we're seeing.
First of all on the on the default and delinquency side, we are seeing an uptick but it's in line with our expectations and.
And steel is even.
Our.
Just this past month and quarter or expected defaults.
Are actually higher than we actually are seeing so.
It is shoring up.
On the claim side, we're still at record lows.
And that's just because people are still.
Yielding.
You know much more.
At the auction then than we have forecasted so.
It was kind of have a head.
Well on that.
Just real quick on your on your on your growth rate you know all the things you've done enough said.
The production the Saar, obviously has been a big impact in the prepared comments and on the inventory and restocking, but as things normalize and we get back to as Ross said, the affordability comes down a bit you use price values come down a bit as well as inventory restocking I mean, this business has performed well through the <unk>.
LNG in times and as things normalize we feel historically its been if you look past three year for the pandemic, a 30% revenue CAGR business and we feel like we can get back to significant growth rates as things normalize.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Sure.
Alright. Our next question comes from the line of David Scharf from JMP Securities.
May now proceed.
Great. Thanks, Thanks for taking my question.
<unk>.
You actually.
Chuck I believe when you went through the guidance.
I think you answered what I was prepared to ask which was.
Is the updated outlook on affordability is this more a function of elevated used car prices, which have been so stubbornly high or is it a function of consumer sentiment and.
It sounded like it was the latter I just wanted to confirm.
As we think about.
Wow, it looks like $29000 because it was the average size loan this quarter.
Which is much higher than I think any of us are used to seeing for 640 average funko.
Is it as we think about sort of you know.
Yeah.
Your comfort level and visibility in how you're thinking internally about trends over over the next few quarters.
Is it more inflation broader consumer credit.
Trends in fed actions that we should be thinking about more than used with it than just supply chain issues, because there seem to be a lot of you know.
Inputs here.
Yeah there are.
Thanks for the question, David but definitely a lot of inputs urine as we worked through it from a bottoms up perspective.
Just kind of like to point to maybe just three rule.
Big drivers that went into our input as the geopolitical environment change notably.
Since we were last on the phone and the war in Ukraine has disrupted the energy sector.
Oil prices are at highs and gas prices.
As you mentioned inflation at 40 years Hi.
Consumer price index it at 9%.
A big impact and then Asia was locked down and containment and in.
And the chips. So that is definitely still a macro chip issue, there and getting the auto dynamic back in good order. So on the auto sector. It really hasnt improved like what we thought.
When we were last on the phone so it's the industry chipset supply its affordability.
Sorry, it's just many inputs and much of outside of our control. So we're really focused on is executing running the business through this in <unk>.
And generating a lot of cash flow.
Shareholders the company in and continue.
Continued focus for the pent up demand when it when it comes back and it's ready, but but yes, it's really a blend of all of it in.
Probably the biggest factor on the range of the guidance is is really the fed's action and what's the fed going to do over the next several months here.
As is.
He's on the rate.
Rate increases in sentiment from the consumer is going to get better and affordability could come is going to come down as prices normalize on on the manheim.
Really the biggest factors I think in the range of that so yeah just supply in general just has to improve in the auto space. So I know, it's a long winded answer, but it's a lot of a lot of inputs to to what we thought about here.
No no no that's very helpful.
Maybe just as a follow up.
Sort of a structural.
The structural question.
Within the profit sharing arrangements with the carriers.
Does does their portion.
The profit share that they keep does that change at all based on any absolute levels.
<unk> profit share pursuit.
As we think about potentially a.
You know not just credit normalization, which we're seeing now to pre pandemic levels, but if we were to actually fall into a true unemployment driven recession, and so our loss rates become.
Significantly elevated in the lower profit share per loan maybe under $500 does that trigger any changes in terms of how the splits are calculated.
No no it does not.
Okay terrific. Thank you.
Thank you David.
Alright next question comes from the line of Joe <unk> from Canaccord Genuity you May now proceed.
Hey, guys good afternoon.
You mentioned that.
You may tweak your underwriting model a bit in the quarter be interest to get a little more detail on that and then it does sound like you know.
The credit unions and basically the non OEM.
Kind of still grew in the quarter and I just wanted to confirm if thats a lot of refi activity there.
Kind of keeping things really high and I guess.
You know to finish that equation of I guess, it does sound like probably the OEM channel is the one that clearly.
Down the most at this point and then maybe one quick follow up.
Yes, Joe.
As far as underwriting.
When we were.
Just trying to address things we can control.
We launched 84 months, we expanded our loan amounts for indirect.
I was just looking in the uptick has been.
That's definitely in line with our expectation is growing.
We're actually seeing improved capture rates, which was our overall in tier as well so instead of countering and basically are not not getting that.
That opportunity.
Our capture rate continues to improve and we expect that to continue to improve from here on out because it takes it takes a while for some of our institutions to adopt our larger underwriting box.
And so yeah, we are excited about it and when we continue to look at other.
Because as you are underwriting changes that we can help navigate through this.
As far as the refi and then John can speak to it as.
<unk>.
As we have new accounts that are coming on that are we are expanding our kind of wallet share with how we serve in.
And new refi opportunities we have accounts. They just have signed up and launched doing repo only initially before they look at other channels. So.
And I think that's just what's great about our business model is the ability to pivot when originations that because the supply is limited we're able to still help the consumer out bye.
But by getting them in a place that fits their credit quality, yes.
Yes, and Joel jump in on the on the refi was 32% of our quarter. So about 14000 search of the 44500, we generated so so still strong performance there and then the core credit Union business was actually are actually was up about 27% or only back up the non OEM business. So.
Your point about the Oems being being down the other they're download the most as you look at the customers.
To be expected with supply in and where things are with incentives.
And inventories so so that's where that's where kind of round it out but the core business performed very well.
Yes.
Okay.
When you look at some of our funding sources.
May be running out of a little bit liquidity.
We've got some new funding sources lined up.
That are totally interested in the refi channel.
And the fact that they are sitting there waiting to get some of the volume.
I think is awesome I don't think we're going to see a huge down downtick and refinance at all I think if anything some of that.
Applications are going to continue to come in stronger than they even did in the past.
Because of what's going on with the economy.
And.
I think it was David asked the previous question.
<unk>.
I forget how it was worded.
Economy, and the things, we're thinking about with unemployment and things like that yes, if you look at it.
We recognize some of those things are happening at the unemployment rates all these different things like Quincy, but.
But we have over 2 million unique risk profile that we look at.
And as these consumer scores fall, whereas.
As the performance gets a little worse.
All we're going to do with fall into a higher priced bucket, if you will premium standpoint.
Still going to be able to help them get alone.
Yes, it might perform a little differently, but we're collecting enough premium to make sure that the profit share stays where it needs to go even though the.
Outside factors are happening we're pricing for that in every category.
Yes.
Yes that makes a lot of sense. Thanks, John and then just do we have an update on new Oems at this point and has this macro.
Change their kind of.
View on the timeline here on adopting the lender protection program. Thanks, guys.
Hey, Joe we're still we still have a lot of activity going on discussions.
Going on there is.
Really not a lot of change from the last quarter except.
Just trying to what we are we are seeing is some folks are starting to see some losses.
Which actually ironically is a good thing.
As far as the.
Showing the value prop of ours and so.
I think with a used car index, where he is now in the new originations that are out there. They have a lot more risk because of the decline that's going to happen compared to the timing of when losses are going to happen and.
So we look forward we continue.
Two two.
Pursue the ones, we've been talking to and there's still a level of interest and we're trying to get on the radar.
But we're kind of we're pleased where we are at this point.
Hey, Joe I'll add one more thing just kind of your comment about guidance and maybe David's comment.
If you think about the most significant impacts to the outlook and guidance outlook incentives raw state and the Oems have bottomed the SAR has bottomed.
We believe prices prices peaked.
Sector dynamics are improving and Theres 5 million pent up demand units that as we said in the script that we stand ready to capitalize on because our business fundamentals are we believe are very strong and ready for that win when things normalize but things are improving.
Yeah.
Thanks, guys.
Thank you Joe.
Alright. Our next question comes from the line of Pete Heckmann from Davidson monopoly.
Good afternoon, gentlemen, thanks for taking the question just looking at it.
The implied revenue per loan and your updated guidance. It certainly seems to imply that you expected the profit share for loans that continue to run.
Pretty solid.
$5 70 to $5 90 or something like that.
Obviously that.
Per the origination fee is also going up as the average price of the car goes up.
Is that the right way to think about how youre thinking about the uptick.
Uptick in default rates.
Well, Yeah on unit economics, as you relate to the program fees and profit share, yes, we feel good that $5 50 to 600 Theres.
Theres mix at times not at all risk is created equal on the premiums, but yes that $5 50 to 600 feels good from a modeling perspective, and then program because as you pointed out or are up a bit year over year over year due loan amount increases and also a mix of business. So we feel good about those numbers.
Okay, Okay, and then just.
Just thinking about refi and sorry, if someone already asked this but I think the absolute number of refinance loans was down about 18% sequentially.
Was that.
Does that correspond with like.
Mailing program or maybe a major mailing program in this in the first quarter was not in the second quarter or is that a remnant of perhaps.
Just concern over rates.
Any way to think about that.
I think it's all driven by a little bit of liquidity issues.
Not concerned over rates not concern over.
Hey, kind of mailing or anything its simply one of our largest credit union funding source.
That's taking a two month pause.
Finding excess cash to be able to lend out there over 100% lent out.
So it's just a matter of.
Fine tuning their balance sheet and getting back into it.
I see alright. So John this is Chuck you would you would agree I mean, yes, we were a little under 40% in Q1, but obviously still strong at almost 32, 5%.
For Q2, so still still a strong piece of our opportunity as John said.
Oh sure yes.
Yes, definitely I appreciate it.
Yeah.
Okay.
Alright, well move onto our next question comes from the line of James <unk> from Morgan Stanley You May now proceed.
Hi, Yeah. This is sandy BD on for James.
Just a conceptual question here and maybe you had conversations with the credit unions that can help in terms of <unk>.
Color.
Our credit unions, more or less interested or do they use the product more or less into periods like this where lets just say expectations for defaults are increasing.
Framed differently, how does product demand and usage react just on a cyclical basis, and then even factoring in interest rates and pricing into the equation as well any color that you can offer there would be great.
Yeah, I don't think they use any more I think.
Have all adopted the program if you look back in history credit unions traditionally.
Our prime lenders.
Very few of them led to below <unk> 90.
And when they started to adopt our program.
They became.
More in line with.
Realizing that they could safely lend to the near Prime consumer.
With the safety net of our insurance piece tied to every loan.
In the event of default there, we're still going to get there.
Yield they want it.
The majority of them, even some of the largest one simply didn't have the data to be able to underwrite these loans appropriately so they simply.
<unk> are conditioned to the point, where they support consumer was set out.
And subjected to the exit of the Santander.
Yes, I do think that as you start to see delinquencies rise a little bit out there I think we're going to see some of the shops that we've been targeting.
Haven't even gotten into yet.
More prone to want to sign up for our program.
And again I'll come back to that.
Yes here from <unk>.
Earlier about.
And Ralph made the point a few minutes ago as they start to see more losses.
More delinquency would become a lot more appealing in.
And the beauty for us is.
It's priced appropriately from a current standpoint for us the benefit.
I think.
They try not to be cyclical they tried to stay in the game.
One of the things dealers hate.
And we've seen with the likes of some of the big banks.
One day, they're buying six one is the next day they are not.
Well, we get the credit unions, the ability to do that.
Stay in the game with the dealers and become their lead source for our getting those loans funded.
Got it that's helpful. Yeah.
Because I do want to.
James I wanted to add something to John's comments and basically win.
John and I can talk about back in 2007 and eight.
Our capture rate we are.
But credit union clients than our capture rate than was double what it is today so during those times.
The demand for our product definitely in.
Increased and we were able to see a very very positive results from that I think Chuck when I asked something yeah, and then just one more thing.
Delinquencies for a second our FICO $5 75 and above.
2% delinquencies and defaults 575 or above are less than 5%.
Our FICO score as FICO scores of $6 40 range as John and Ross said, so so that's in line with the 10 year trailing performance.
Got it helpful.
Maybe a little bit more of a high level question.
<unk> landscape.
How has this evolved past three to six months, obviously, the environment changing pretty rapidly, particularly with respect to interest rates.
Refi, obviously, an impact there as well.
Anything that youre seeing competitors pulling back or pushing obviously, you've called out market share in the press release.
Any color there would be great.
When you say competitors.
I'm not sure we've identified any other funding sources.
Some of the likes us.
Yes, the larger banks, we see their numbers their loans are way down.
I don't know if thats because they are overpriced Timur.
I'll take that.
Cost of funds I am sure is rising.
Yeah from a competitive standpoint, we have yet to identify a competitor that does what we do the way we do it.
Yeah.
Perfect. That's good to know thank you.
Thank you.
Alright next question coming from the line of John Hecht from Jefferies. You May now proceed.
Hey, guys afternoon, and thanks for taking my question.
And this is just I guess, an extension of some of the other discussions we've had here, but you mentioned that the refi market.
It's pretty.
Resilient right now.
But you would expect that rising rates might have some influence on that over time I guess the question is considering rates considering the direction of used car prices and some of I guess youre just economic judgment what happened and then I guess also on the other side is that some normalization of production from the Oems what happens.
In your guidance, what do you think happens to mix over the next several quarters.
You mean to make yes.
Purchase.
Refi, just didn't even channels OEM versus credit unions and banks and so forth.
Chuck.
Yes, I can start.
John I think the way to think about it as the Oems and there is more inventory in the dealer is.
As floors increase Oems that we wanted to be a bigger piece of our business going forward as that normalizes and we think the absolute percent of refi.
The percent of re Fi may sustain or go down slightly but we believe the absolute number of search could could continue to rise even though.
Rising rate environment.
John if you want to add anything to that.
Now, let's add just exactly that I think.
In addition to that regardless of where the loans are coming from them and that Ross alluded to it a little bit.
Prepared remarks, yes, the economy is going to drive.
A lot of consumers scores lower.
A lot of people just can't afford to make their payments or they're using credit card, which is a big factor in your FICO score and I think what youre going to find us.
With the economy getting squeezed.
People that are making a 500 dollar a month parkman today.
Considering our refi in the past.
I'll work on that.
Increased gas prices food prices are up now they're going to be looking for ways to reduce their monthly outflow.
I think there is going to drive.
A lot of these 18 and 17% interest rate.
We're still coming back with 11 and 12 using credit Union funds.
I think just kind.
I don't see it going away or getting smaller.
Great that's very helpful. Thanks.
Thanks, John .
Yeah.
Okay.
Our next question comes from the line of Faiza All way from Deutsche Bank You May now proceed.
Yes, hi, thank you.
So I wanted to just ask about the EBITDA outlook, because you mentioned some investments in data et cetera. So I'm curious if most of the change in EBITDA outlook because of revenue impacts or is here.
You're embedding some.
Investment spending there too.
Yes.
This is Chuck.
Obviously as we've talked about we're investing in our go to market sales strategy as well as technology this year and.
Really the change there that you've seen from the previous guidance to this is really just more revenue topline.
We're going to maintain our guidance.
63% to 65% EBIT margin and that's net of the investments we're making in the year for 2022. So that's all baked in so so that's the margin profile in the guidance.
Okay understood and then you mentioned you mentioned several times that of maintaining financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet cash position like how are you thinking about using that to our benefit during this time.
Well I think I'll tag on to.
The investments, we're making right now first and foremost in the business and in the go to market sales and being ready to capitalize on that pent up demand as things recover.
First and foremost and we're going to and when you say maintain financial flexibility.
Having a strong cash position is in the uncertain times is definitely something that we're very focused on and just maintaining that flexibility through these challenging times.
We will look at other opportunities as the business matures and we look at opportunities from time to time on the M&A front, but obviously just investing back in the business right now is the primary focus.
Great. Thank you.
Okay.
Our next question coming from the line of Vincent <unk> from Stephens you May now proceed.
Hey, Thanks, Good afternoon first one.
Wanted to talk about if you could discuss the conversations youre having.
With your lending partners and with the lending partners that you've signed up I guess with the.
Even at the midpoint of the guidance the implied second half you do have non OEM volume is shrinking so I'm sort of wondering if you could discuss like what.
Broadly what these banks and credit Union lenders are thinking and I know you mentioned one one credit Union maybe reached their limits. They were taking two month pause, but are you seeing maybe other lenders.
Maybe requiring high returns from wanting to reduce your exposure or how do they how are they thinking about.
This current environment.
Your partnership thank you.
Yes, I don't think theyre trying to reduce their exposure or yes.
Even though our cost of funds I don't think it's that big of an issue because even if a credit unions cost of funds comes up a half a point they are still going to be the lowest.
Interest rate in town relative to.
The refinance market that we're going after I truly believe that it's a situation where those that have been really successful in our program and we've seen this over the years even gone back.
Kevin Ali.
Where they get some successful with our program that they just need to find additional cast a lab.
What they are trying to do is just kind of reorganize their balance sheet.
If you look at where mortgage rates are going in all of these other asset classes.
With the rates climbing on that.
They don't want to hold on to these long term.
Loans, not knowing where rates are going to go.
Perfect asset liability mix for credit Union is an auto loan that's got an average life of two and a half to three years.
Our yield.
Four times that of a prime loan.
It's just a matter of prioritizing where to get the cash from and where to deploy it.
I want to add something.
John It is even though we do have a couple of our partners.
Situation.
Primarily we are actively trying to reallocate that to other partners.
Having.
Having calls and meetings regarding that so where everybody's at work trying to still take take those applications those sources and place them at one of our other participating customers out there.
And then but.
OEM volume.
Actually Q2 was a little up from Q1.
So I think I think for the balance of the year. It's it should be in line with where it's trading right now.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Just wanted to kind of a follow up on the bounce back.
Balance sheet question earlier, but yes, your cash position is $168 million kind of builds very nicely I know you talked about investment investing in the business and M&A, but.
Your balance sheet is very capital light and just wondering if you've thought about capital return like share repurchases. Since you have bought stock in the past at higher prices than where the stock is now or are there any any limitations to doing share buybacks. Thank you.
Yes, Thanks, Vanessa no no there's no no limitation to doing share buybacks.
We don't have a current board authorization to buy stock back.
We evaluate that thoughtful decisions at the board level for us to just think through in <unk>.
But again building cash and maintaining that financial flexibility is what we're focused on and investing back in the business right now.
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Yes.
Just a quick reminder, for everybody. If you would like to register for a question you can do so by dialing one four on your telephone keypad.
We have one more question in queue, it's coming from the line of Mike Grondahl from Northland capital markets.
Hi, This is Michael Q, John from Mike Grondahl, Thanks for taking the questions.
Hey, Mike.
And just a reminder, on I think last year early second quarter, you dropped the vehicle.
Value discount was that an impact year over year comparison, unlike the profit share.
Average there.
Yes.
Last I believe last April of 'twenty, one, we actually got rid of the 5% discount.
Our capture rates did increase.
From that but because it because basically we would drop if we did that that reduced premium and reuss the contract rate.
Place.
Yes.
But I'd just point out that power.
Our loan amounts.
Howard premium and higher profit share as well and the addition of 84 months came out at higher premium Brian .
Liam rates as well.
Yeah.
Got it and then maybe just on.
Slide three has there been any vintage to call out on the realized versus.
Perspective performance announced.
Matt.
Can you repeat that Michael I didn't follow your question.
Sure just on the.
The contract asset and property revenue has there been any Brian interest segment to call out there or has that been pretty.
<unk> base as far as the realized coming in ahead of.
Expectation.
Yes, I think I think the realized was just lower lower claims and severity of loss than we had originally modeled in that $6 4 million component and then the negative $3. Six was really just us putting more stress in the forward looking periods for higher severity of loss with prices used car values coming down to increase.
And then increased prepayments as well as increased.
False forward looking so that's what all of that is.
Yes.
Alright, thank you.
Thank you.
Yeah.
Alright, we have no further questions queued up I will turn the call back over to our presenters for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thanks to everybody for your continued interest and support the company.
I think we've got.
Great growth ahead of us here to continue to grow.
We're looking forward to doing that.
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Yeah.
All right, ladies and gentlemen that will conclude the conference call for today. We thank you very much for your participation and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
Sure.
Okay.
Okay.
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Good afternoon, and welcome to open lending second quarter 2022 earnings call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode.
Afterwards, we will conduct a question and answer session at that time. If you have a question. Please press the one followed by the four on your telephone.
Any time during the conference you need to reach an operator, Please press star zero.
As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded on.
On the call today are John <unk>, Chairman and CEO , Ross, Joseph President and COO and Chuck Joe CFO earlier today, the company posted its second quarter 2022 earnings release to its Investor Relations website in the release you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP.
Financial measures discussed on this call.
Before we begin I'd like to remind you that this call may contain estimates and other forward looking statements that represent the company's view as of today August four 2022 open lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances. Please refer to today's earnings release, and our filings with the SEC for more information.
Concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements and now I'll pass the call over to Mr. Flynn. Please go ahead.
Thank you operator, and good afternoon, everyone.
Thanks again for joining us today for open lending second quarter 2022 earnings conference call.
I will briefly discuss the highlights of our results for the quarter and how we are performing given the current industry and economic condition.
Ross will then discuss current auto industry trends and open lending relative performance and prior cycles.
And then lastly, Chuck will go over the financial and thoughts for the remainder of the year.
For the second quarter, our results were in line with our expectations. Despite continued challenging economic and industry headwinds to our business with our results modestly growing quarter over quarter.
The industry is still facing low levels of dealer inventory due to the continued global semiconductor chip shortages and the supply chain challenges and.
In addition, and equally significant are inflated used car values impact on affordability to the near and non prime consumers.
We began the second quarter of 2022, there were indications that fundamentals, we're beginning to stabilize and then expectation that the second half of the year would lead to higher auto transaction volume.
<unk> to the first half of the year.
Instead continued lockdowns in Asia, and the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, collectively dampened the supply to fuel our recovery.
Even more notable has been the impact of a 40 year high record inflationary condition.
And the impact on consumers budgets and the federal Reserve's monetary tightening response of 75 basis point hike.
June and July .
The results of high inflation and higher borrowing costs.
Consumer sentiment at the lowest level seen in our company's history.
Despite these industry headwinds our businesses performed well our current expectations for full year 2022 auto originations that open lending are projected to be in line with full year 2021, while the current run rates that many of the universal banks implies auto lending.
Nations will be down over 20% year over year.
We remain focused on what we can control, including investing in our go to market sales strategy to capture more of our significant and growing Tam.
In the first half of the year, we increased our sales and account management teams by 23%.
The individuals we've hired have been to have deep experience in the auto loan origination space in particular with credit unions and banks.
While some players in our ecosystem are holding flat or even.
Reducing their employee base during this period of economic uncertainty.
We are actively hiring high quality talent and positioning ourselves to take market share.
Although early we have seen good traction on these investments.
It is worth noting that during the second quarter, our non OEM business, primarily credit Union.
<unk> certified loans, 27% year over year.
During the quarter, we signed 18, new customers and had 10 lenders certify their first loan in the quarter.
We also further grew our existing customer base.
Our top 10, non OEM customers, increasing their certification volume.
33% in the second quarter of 2002 as compared to Q2 'twenty one.
Another area of focus has been on enhancing lenders protection by continuing to invest in the platform and the infrastructure to support our growth as well as improving lender onboarding.
Porting and claims administration capabilities and investing in development resources.
Early indications support improved Onboarding and cycle times from contract signing to our first certified loan and revenue.
These initiatives and associated investments are.
All to support our large growing Tam, which according to a recent assessment prepared for us by a third party now totals approximately $270 billion for auto loan originations, which is up 8% from the study prepared prior to our public listing.
In addition, there is approximately 40 billion Tam related to the auto refinance opportunity.
This represents 32% of our search this quarter and is expected to continue to perform well even with the current macroeconomic backdrop.
Based on the recent Tam analysis, we have penetrated less than 2% market share, leaving a significant room for growth.
As you know we bring together the various players in the auto retail ecosystem.
We enable lenders to make loans to consumers.
The loans made through our lenders protection program provide yields that are often exceed that of our customers prime portfolio with lower risk to the lender.
The ultimate beneficiary is the underserved near and non prime consumer who receives access to credit a larger range of lenders with higher loan amounts better rates at appropriate down payments, which is even more important in today's environment, where consumers affordability is being squeezed.
The benefits we offer are needed now more than ever.
In addition to the massive underserved and growing Tam and our mission to help both lenders and consumers we have considerable moat around our business with over 20 years of proprietary data.
<unk> underwriting decision and our exclusive relationships with for a rate of insurance partners.
This moat continues to widen as we make strategic investments in new data technology and talent.
We believe our value proposition to the various players in the auto retail ecosystem supports our confidence in the resiliency of our business through any cycle and gets us even more excited about our long term opportunities.
A few reminders about our business as we head into potentially slower economic growth.
First and foremost we will maintain our discipline and rigor at all times in our underwriting process. During this economic.
Traction and then the second quarter, we adjusted our underwriting models to optimize for the health of our portfolio from a risk perspective.
As you are all aware, we do not take balance sheet risk.
We will continue to prudently manage our balance sheet to ensure we maintain financial flexibility.
In the end, we will continue to target growth rate in excess of industry growth rates, but never at the expense of our commitment to managing risk our business fundamentals and our long term outlook are strong.
I would now like to turn the call over to Ross, who will provide more details on what we're currently seeing in the auto lending industry as well as a comparison to how the industry performed during the recession of 2008 to 2009.
Ross.
Thanks, John .
As John stated I would like to focus on two topics today.
First let me turn to auto industry trends.
Manheim used vehicle value index prices in June decreased one 3% from May 2022.
But we're still notice fleet book.
Nine 7% compared to June 2021.
And for the year remain at historical 25 year highs.
Wholesale used vehicle prices continued to increase in the first half of the year.
Average used car prices now 28000 versus 19000, prepaid debit and increase of 47%.
New vehicle inventory is building at a more measured rate compared to expectations. We began this year.
The 2022, new vehicle Saar industry estimates have been revised downward three times and Bob One 6 million units. This year clearly a indication of continued supply side challenges.
Average instead of dollars per vehicle, a leading indicator of inventory availability.
Noticeably below historical levels.
In June 2021, Oems, we're offering $2700 per vehicle incentives.
As compared to approximately 1200 who'd vehicle in June of 2022.
While these are headwinds currently facing our industry. The number of new vehicle sales is forecasted to grow 5.2% per annum over the next five years, but could clearly grow more quickly considering the new vehicle Saar has been running at two to 3 million units below historical levels.
Finally, the average age of a vehicle on the road is as high as it's ever been at over 12 years old further adding to the number of units of pent up demand and the opportunity for us ahead.
Now to move on to my second topic, we continue to compare and contrast current economic conditions against prior recessions, specifically 2008 2009.
During that time credit units grew deposits and loan volumes each year in the last recession, suggesting that volumes can continue to grow through a downturn.
And while the value of used vehicles declined and used auto sales decreased in the last recession.
<unk> returned to pre crisis levels within a year.
Given the tight supply our current belief is that price levels will not decline as precipitously as it did during the great financial crisis.
90% of the lenders using lenders protection reach their targeted goals.
Lessons learned from the remaining 10% have enabled the company to improve its risk based pricing model.
Vic versus stand versus normal and LP score.
So some prime customers will fall into the near prime market due to the economic conditions, creating growth in our total addressable market.
We expect the carrier appetite and capacity will not be an issue as the bulks need to increased two times the levels in the great financial crisis to greater net economic loss for insurers.
Auto lending has typically perform better than other consumer asset classes as cars and car payments are prioritized over other consumer discretionary spending.
There's an industry adage that you can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house to work.
Accordingly, we are optimistic about our core competencies in the auto lending space.
With that I would like to turn the call over to Chuck to review Q2, and further detail as well as to provide updated thoughts on the full year 2022 outlook Jeff.
Thanks, Ross during the second quarter of 2022, we facilitated 44531 certified loans compared to 46408 certified loans in Q2 of 'twenty one.
43944 certified loans in Q1 of 'twenty two.
In addition, as John stated earlier, we executed contracts with 18, new customers during the quarter and had 10, new lenders certify their first loan in the quarter.
Total revenue for the second quarter of 2022 was $52 million as compared to $61 1 million in the second quarter of 2021.
I would like to point out that if you exclude the ASC 606 change in estimated revenues associated with profit share from each quarter Q2 of 'twenty. Two revenue is flat year over year on a lower number of certified loans as a result of our focus on higher average unit economics and quality of credit in our portfolio.
To break down total revenues in the second quarter 2022 profit share revenue represented $29 2 million.
Program fees were $27 million in claims administration fees and other were approximately $2 2 million.
Now to further break down the $29 $2 million in profit share revenue in Q2.
Profit share associated with new originations in the second quarter of 2022 was $26 3 million or $591 per certified loan.
As compared to $27 million or $582 per certified loan in the second quarter of 2021.
Also included in profit share revenue in Q2 of 'twenty two was $2 8 million change in estimated future revenues from certified loans originated in previous periods, primarily as a result of positive realized portfolio performance due to lower claims and lower severity of losses, which was partially offset by higher.
Prepaid and increasing in severity of losses expected in future periods change in.
Estimated future revenues was $11 8 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Gross profit was $47 million and gross margin was 90% in the second quarter of 2022 as.
As compared to $57 million and gross margin of 93% in the second quarter of 2021.
Selling general and administrative expenses were $14 1 million in the second quarter of 2022 compared to $12 1 million in the previous year quarter.
The increase was primarily due to additional employees to support our growth with a focus on our go to market sales strategy and investment in our technology with both both of which John mentioned earlier.
Operating income was $32 8 million in the second quarter of 2022 compared to $44 9 million in the second quarter of 2021.
Net income for the second quarter of 2022 was $23 1 million compared to $76 million in the second quarter of 2021.
As a reminder, second quarter of 2021, we recognized a onetime gain on the extinguishment extinguishment of the tax receivable agreement of $55 4 million.
Basic and diluted earnings per share was <unk> 18 in.
In the second quarter of 2022 as compared to <unk> 60 in the previous year quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2022 was $34 million as compared to $46 1 million in the second quarter of 2021.
There is a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.
Adjusted operating cash flow for the quarter was $34 6 million as compared to $30 5 million in the second quarter of 2021, a 13% increase year over year.
We exited the quarter with $366 8 million and total assets of which $167 7 million was an unrestricted cash of $106 7 million was in contract assets.
And $66 5 million in net deferred tax assets.
We had $159 3 million and total liabilities of which $144 9 million was in outstanding debt.
Now moving to our guidance for 2022.
Based on the first half of 2022 results and trends into the third quarter.
We are revising our guidance ranges for full year 2022 as follows.
Total certified loans to be between 155000 and 185000.
Total revenue to be between $175 million and $205 million.
Adjusted EBITDA to be between $110 million and $135 million.
And adjusted operating cash flow to be between $115 million and $145 million.
Despite the industry headwinds, we remain confident in the resiliency of our business and our ability to navigate through the supply and affordability constraints.
However, these industry and economic challenges have impacted our growth outlook in the near term.
In our guidance, we took the following factors into consideration.
We adjusted our program underwriting with a focus on optimizing the health and quality of our portfolio from a credit perspective.
Continued disruption in transportation networks and raw material shortages.
The globe global semiconductor chip shortages.
Low levels of dealer inventory and dealer sentiment.
The investments we are making in the business.
Continued strength of our refinance program and the value proposition it offers consumers.
The rate of growth, where an index of public auto lender financial institutions, which peaked in the second quarter of 2021 at 21% and contracted to a negative 2% in the second quarter of 2022.
The affordability index of our target credit score due to continue inflated used car values, and finally inflation and rising interest rates and overall consumer sentiment, which perhaps has had the most significant waiting on our guidance considerations.
While we model and analyze the industry supply chain and end market field conditions, the visibility on federal reserve policy can be less clear.
As the Fed's guidance has changed from our view that inflation would be transitory to tighter monetary policy consumer and dealer sentiment dropped considerably.
With consumer spending slowing dramatically the fed noted that it will likely become appropriate to slow the pace of increases as they assess how cumulative policy adjustments affect the economy and inflation.
We will continue to keep a watchful eye on the <unk> policy. In addition to the fundamentals that matter most of our sales outlook.
Now in closing I'd like to note that the midpoint of our revised guidance is in line with last year as it relates to certified loans, which grew 82% and revenue which grew nearly 70% in full year 2021, excluding any impact from ASC 606 change an estimate of revenues.
We provide a true value proposition to our customers, we have limited near term capital investment requirements and no near term maturities on our debt.
We will continue to maintain financial flexibility with a strong balance sheet and cash position and an overall conservative financial policy, while investing in our business during challenging economic times, when we stand ready to capitalize on the pent up demand.
We want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we will now take your questions.
All right and ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to register for a question you can do so by dialing one or that's one followed by the four on your telephone keypad right now and you're going to hear three towns to acknowledging requests and if your question has been answered you'd like to withdraw you can dial one.
Three okay. So once they get to queue up for questions. Today, It's one for one followed by the four on your telephone keypad right now.
All right. Our first question comes from the line of Napoli from William Blair You May now proceed.
Thank you Hey, good afternoon, John and Chuck.
Appreciate the question, Hey, Bob I guess alright.
Hope you're doing well.
So I guess, just I mean, obviously, it's a difficult environment.
In the auto space right now so no huge.
He was surprised I think on the guidance.
Estimates, but what are your thoughts on how youre doing from a market share perspective, and as we lap tougher year. If you look into 2023 and ongoing what is your feel for what the right growth rate should be.
For your company.
Yeah. Bob This is Jeff go ahead John .
I was just going to say you can answer the percentage chocolate.
I think we kind of.
Tried to point out.
We are about.
Not yet.
The growth ahead of us.
But the numbers that we're heading given.
First of all these other lenders.
And then credit unions are continuing to be excited about.
What we have to offer.
We offer upstairs.
Funding rate.
We're always going to be way below everybody out.
And I think given the the new Tam that we had.
Gone out and asked to get done.
From the same company that did it why we took the company public I was thrilled to see that attacks the ground.
That's up 270 billion just on the.
Purchase side and 40 billion on the refinance side.
Yes.
Two numbers combined.
It takes it about $60 million.
Billion greater than what the Tam was when we started this.
Public.
Passenger side I think that there's a huge runway ahead of us.
And again that was primarily the.
Union space the bags, the refinance space I think with the.
Cars, starting to come back out I think we're going to see a lot of growth.
Yes.
Sure you'll go ahead Bob.
I was going to say.
Well, what we what we believe and we have been forecasting is that.
If you track used car values and how we see them declining slowly, but we see them now.
Not being a into this too.
We think we're pretty conservative on our forecast and realistic as well that is going to be late 'twenty. Three early 'twenty four before they were down to a level that will result in.
The change in the affordability, making.
These are loans.
Lot more attractive I believe the near and non prime folks who are on the sidelines.
They are.
There's going to be a pent up demand and it's because it's going to be as soon as supply increases we are going to be taking advantage of that I think in the meantime, we have the ability to pivot and keep going after our lenders to help refinance to put these consumers at a better state.
Yes.
Okay quality side I'm sorry.
Alright, no problem yeah, yeah.
Our average our average score of our portfolio is about 60 about $640 alright, so with that in mind I don't consider SBA.
In the subprime and the non prime.
When we're looking at we're seeing.
First of all on the on the default delinquency side, we are seeing an uptick but it's in line with our expectations and.
And steel is even.
Our.
Just this past month and quarter or expected defaults.
Are actually higher than we actually are seeing so.
It is shoring up.
On the claims side, we're still at record lows.
And that's just because people are still.
Yielding.
You know much more.
At the auction then than we have forecasted so.
It was kind of have a head.
Headwind on that.
Just real quick on your on your on your growth rate you know all the things you've done are up both said.
The production the Saar, obviously has been a big impact in the prepared comments and on the inventory and restocking, but as things normalize and we get back to as Ross said, the affordability comes down a bit you use price values come down a bit as well as inventory restocking I mean, this business has performed well through the <unk>.
<unk> times and as things normalize we feel historically its been if you look past three years for the pandemic, a 30% revenue CAGR business in.
We feel like we can get back to significant growth rates as things normalize.
Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Alright. Our next question comes from the line of David Scharf from JMP Securities.
May now proceed.
Great. Thanks, Thanks for taking my question.
<unk>.
You actually.
Chuck I believe when you went through the guidance.
Thank you answered what I was prepared to ask which was.
Is the updated outlook and affordability is this more a function of elevated used car prices, which have been so stubbornly high or is it a function of consumer sentiment and.
It sounded like it was the latter I just wanted to confirm you know.
As we think about.
Wow, it looks like $29000 because it was the average size loan this quarter.
Which is much higher than I think any of us are used to seeing for 640 average FICO.
Is it as we think about sort of you know.
Yeah.
Your comfort level and visibility and how youre thinking internally about trends over over the next few quarters.
Is it more inflation broader consumer credit.
Trends in fed actions that we should be thinking about more than us than just supply chain issues, because there seem to be a lot of you know.
Inputs here.
Yeah, I know that there are.
Thanks for the question, David but definitely a lot of inputs urine as we worked through it from a bottoms up perspective.
Just kind of like to point to maybe just three rule.
Big drivers that went into our input as the geopolitical environment change notably.
Since we were last on the phone and the war in Ukraine has disrupted the energy sector.
Oil prices are at highs and gas prices.
As you mentioned inflation at 40 years Hi.
Consumer price index it at 9%.
Big impact and then Asia was locked down and containment and in.
And the chips. So that is definitely still a macro chip issue, there and getting the auto dynamic back in good order. So on the auto sector. It really hasnt improved like what we thought.
When we were last on the phone so it's the industry chipset supply its affordability.
Sorry, it's just many inputs and much of outside of our control so.
We're really focused on is executing running the business through this.
And generating a lot of cash flow.
Shareholders the company in.
Continued focus for the pent up demand when it when it comes back and it's ready, but but yes, it's really a blend of all of it in but probably the biggest factor on the range of the guidance is is really the fed's action and what's the fed going to do over the next several months here.
As is.
He's on the rate.
Rate increases in sentiment from the consumer is going to get better and affordability could come is going to come down as prices normalize on on the manheim.
Really the biggest factors I think in the range of that so yeah just supply in general just has to improve in the auto space. So I know, it's a long winded answer, but it's a lot of a lot of inputs to to what we thought about here.
No no no that's very helpful.
Maybe just as a follow up.
Sort of the structural.
The structural question.
Within the profit sharing arrangements with the carriers.
Does does their portion.
Of the profit share that they keep.
Does that change at all based on any absolute levels.
Of profit share per search.
As we think about potentially.
You know not just credit normalization, which we're seeing now to pre pandemic levels, but if we were to actually fall into a true unemployment driven recession, and so our loss rates become significantly elevated in the lower profit share per loan maybe under $500 does that trigger any changes in terms of how the splits are calculated.
No no it does not.
Okay terrific. Thank you.
Thank you David.
Alright next question comes from the line of Joe <unk> from Canaccord Genuity you May now proceed.
Hey, guys good afternoon.
You mentioned that you made tweak your underwriting model a bit in the quarter be interest to get a little more detail on that and then it does sound like.
The credit unions and basically the non OEM.
Kind of still grew in the quarter and I just wanted to confirm if thats a lot of refi activity there.
Kind of keeping things really high and I guess.
To finish that equation off if it does sound like probably the OEM channel is the one that clearly.
Down the most at this point and then maybe one quick follow up.
Yes, Joe.
As far as the underwriting.
When we.
Just trying to address things we can control.
We launched 84 months, we expanded our loan amounts for indirect.
I was just looking in the uptick has been.
That's definitely in line with our expectation is growing.
We're actually seeing improved capture rates, which was our overall in tier as well so instead of countering and they basically are not getting that.
That opportunity.
Our capture rate continues to improve and we expect that to continue to improve from here on out because it takes it takes a while for some of our institutions to adopt our larger underwriting box.
And so yes, we are excited about it and when we continue to look at other.
Because as you are underwriting changes that we can help navigate through this.
As far as the refi and then John can speak to it is it still.
As we have new accounts that are coming on that are we are expanding our kind of wallet share with how we serve in and new refi opportunities. We have accounts that have signed up and launched doing repo only initially before they look at other channel. So.
And I think that's just what's great about our business model is the ability to pivot when originations that because the supply is limited.
Still help the consumer out Bob.
By getting over and if it fits their credit quality.
Yes, and Joel jump in on the on the refi was 32% of our quarter. So about 14000 search of the 44500, we generated so so still strong performance there and then the core credit Union business was actually are actually was up about 27% or orderly back up the non OEM business. So.
Your point about the Oems being being down the other they're down the most.
As you look at the customers.
To be expected with supply in and where things are with incentives.
And inventories so so that's where that's where kind of round it out but the core business performed very well.
The cost of capital.
Good.
When you look at some of our funding sources.
May be running out of a little bit liquidity.
We've got some new funding sources lined up.
That are totally interested in the refi channel.
And the fact that they are sitting there waiting to get some of the volume.
I think is awesome I don't think we're going to see a huge down downtick and refinance at all I think if anything those applications are going to continue to come in stronger.
They even did in the past.
Kind of what's going on with the economy.
Yes, I think it was David asked the previous question.
How about the App.
I forget how it was worded.
With the economy and the things, we're thinking about with unemployment and things like that if you look at it.
We recognize some of those things are happening at the unemployment rates all these different things like Quincy.
But we have over 2 million unique risk profile that we look at and then as these consumer scores fall, whereas their performance gets a little worse.
If we're going to do with fall into a higher priced bucket if you will.
Premium standpoint, they are still going to be able to help them along.
But it's kind of yes, it might perform a little differently, what we're collecting enough premium to make sure that the profit share stays where it needs to go even though the.
Outside factors are happening we're pricing for that in every category.
Yes that makes a lot of sense. Thanks, John and then just do we have an update on new Oems at this point.
Has this macro.
Change their kind of.
Our view on the timeline here on adopting the lender protection program. Thanks, guys.
Hey, Joe we're still we still have a lot of activity going on discussions.
Going on theirs.
Really not a lot of change from last quarter, except.
Just trying to what we are we are seeing is some folks are starting to see some losses.
Which actually ironically is a good thing.
As far as the <unk>.
Showing the value prop of ours and so.
With a used car index, where he is now in the new originations that are out there. They have a lot more risk because of the decline that's going to happen compared to the timing of when losses are going to happen and so.
We look forward we continue.
Two two.
Pursue the ones, we've been talking to and there's still a level of interest that we've tried to get on the radar.
But we're kind of we're pleased where we are at this point.
Hey, Joe I'll add one more thing just kind of your comment about guidance and maybe David's comment and kind of think about the most significant impacts to the outlook and guidance outlook.
Ross said and the Oems have bottomed.
<unk> has bottomed we believe prices prices peaked.
Sector dynamics are improving and Theres 5 million pent up demand units that as we said in the script that we stand ready to capitalize on because our business fundamentals are we believe are very strong and ready for that win when things normalize but things are improving.
Thanks, guys.
Okay. Thank you Joe.
Alright. Our next question comes from the line of Pete Heckmann from Davidson that proceed.
Good afternoon, gentlemen, thanks for taking the question just looking at the VA.
The implied revenue per loan and your updated guidance. It. It certainly seems to imply that you expected the profit share per loan that continue to run.
Pretty solid.
$5 70 to $5 90 or something like that.
Obviously the debt.
Per the origination fee is also going up as the average price of the cargoes out of it.
Is that the right way to think about how youre thinking about.
Uptick in default rates.
Well, Yeah on unit economics, as you relate to the program fees and profit share, yes, we feel good that $5 50 to 600 Theres.
Theres mix at times not at all risk is created equal on the premiums, but yes that $5 50 to 600 feels good from a modeling perspective, and then program because as you pointed out or are up a bit year over year over year loan amount increases and also a mix of business. So we feel good about those numbers.
Okay, Okay, and then just.
Thinking about refi and sorry, if someone already asked this but I think that the absolute number of refinance loans was down about 18% sequentially.
Was that.
Does that correspond with like.
Mailing program or maybe a major mailing cargo in this in the first quarter was not in the second quarter or is that a remnant of perhaps.
Yeah, just a concern over rates.
Any way to think about that.
I think it's all driven by a little bit of liquidity issues.
Not concern over rates not concern over.
Hey, kind of mailing or anything its simply one of our largest credit union funding source.
A two month pause.
Finding excess cash to be able to lend out there over 100% lent out.
So it's just a matter of.
Fine tuning their balance sheet and getting back into it.
I see alright, so John this is Chuck.
We would agree I mean, yes, we were a little under 40% in Q1, but obviously still strong at almost 32, 5%.
For Q2, so still still a strong piece of our opportunity as John said.
Sure.
Definitely I appreciate it.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Alright, well move onto our next question comes from the line of James <unk> from Morgan Stanley You May now proceed.
Hi, Yeah. This is sandy BD on for James.
Just a conceptual question here and maybe you had conversations with the credit unions that can help in terms of.
Color.
Credit unions, more or less interested or do they use the product more or less.
<unk> periods like this where lets just say expectations for defaults are increasing.
Framed differently, how does product demand and usage react.
Just on a cyclical basis, and then even factoring in interest rates and pricing into the equation as well any color that you can offer there would be great.
Yes, I don't think that use of any more I think they.
They have all adopted the program if you look back in history credit unions traditionally.
We're prime lenders.
No.
A few of them led to below <unk> 90.
And when they started to adopt our program.
They became.
More in line with.
Realizing that they could safely lend to the near Prime consumer.
With the safety net of our insurance piece tied to every loan.
In the event of default there, we're still going to get there.
Yield they want it.
The majority of them, even some of the largest one simply didn't have the data to be able to underwrite. These loans appropriately. So they simply denied or condition that to the point, where they support consumer was set out.
And subjected to the exit of the Santander.
Yes, I do think that as you start to see delinquencies rise a little bit out there I think we're going to see some of the shops that we've been targeting.
So we haven't even gotten into yet be more prone to want to sign up for our program.
And again I'll come back to that.
He asked here earlier about.
And Ralph made the point a few minutes ago as they start to see more losses.
More delinquency, we'd become a lot more appealing in.
And the beauty for us is.
It's priced appropriately from a current standpoint for us the benefit.
I think.
They try not to be cyclical they tried to stay in the game.
One of the things dealers hate.
And we've seen with the likes of some of the big banks.
One day, they're buying six one is the next day they are not.
Well, we get the credit unions, the ability to do that.
Stay in the game with the dealers and <unk>.
Come there.
Lead source for our getting those loans funded.
Got it that's helpful. Yeah, I do want to.
James I wanted to add something to John's comments and basically win.
John and I can talk about back in 2007 and eight.
Our capture rate we are.
But credit Union clients in our capture rate than was double what it is today so during those times.
The demand for our product definitely in.
Increased and we were able to see very very positive results from that I think Chuck when I add something and then just one more thing.
Delinquencies for a second our FICO $5 75, and above is only 2% delinquencies and defaults 575 or above are less than 5%.
Our FICO score as FICO scores of $6 40 range as John and Ross said, so so that's in line with the 10 year trailing performance.
Got it helpful.
Maybe a little bit more of a high level question.
<unk> landscape.
How has this evolved past three to six months, obviously, the environment changing pretty rapidly, particularly with respect to interest rates.
Refi, obviously, an impact there as well.
Anything that youre seeing competitors pulling back or pushing obviously, you've called out market share in the press release.
Any color there would be great.
What did you say competitors.
I'm not sure we've identified any other funding sources.
Some of the likes us.
Yes, the larger banks, we see their numbers their loans are way down.
I don't know if thats, because they are overpriced Tim or.
Take the cost of funds I'm sure is rising.
But yes from a competitive standpoint.
To identify a competitor that does what we do the way we do it.
Perfect. That's good to know thank you.
Thank you.
Alright next question coming from the line of John Hecht from Jefferies. You May now proceed.
Hey, guys afternoon, and thanks for taking my question.
And this is just I guess, an extension of some of the other discussions we've had here, but you mentioned that the refi market.
It's pretty resilient right now.
But you would expect that rising rates might have some influence on that over time I guess the question is yes.
Lending rates and considering the direction of used car prices and some of I guess your economic judgment what happened and then I guess also on the other side is that some normalization of production from the Oems what happens.
In your guidance, what do you think happens to mix over the next several quarters.
You mean, the refi purchase.
Refi, just didn't even channels OEM versus credit unions and banks and so forth.
Chuck.
Yes, I can start John .
John I think the way to think about it as the Oems and there is more inventory in the dealer has.
As floors increase Oems that we wanted to be a bigger piece of our business going forward as that normalizes and we think the absolute percent of refi.
The percent of re Fi may sustain or go down slightly but we believe the absolute number of search could could continue to rise even though.
Rising rate environment.
John if you want to add anything to that.
Now, let's add just exactly that I think.
In addition to that regardless of where the loans are coming from them on that.
Ross alluded to it a little bit in the prepared remarks, yes, the economy is going to drive.
A lot of consumers scores lower.
Yes, a lot of people just can't afford.
To make their payments or they're using credit cards.
Which is a big factor in your FICO score and I think what youre going to find us.
With the economy getting squeezed.
People that are making a 500 dollar a month card payments today.
Considering our refi in the past.
We're now looking at.
<unk> gas prices food prices are up now they're going to be looking for ways to reduce their monthly outflow.
There is going to drive.
A lot of these 18 and 17% interest rate.
We're still coming back with 11 and 12 using credit Union funds.
So I think it's just going to.
I don't see it going away or getting smaller.
Great guys, that's very helpful. Thanks.
Thanks, John .
Okay.
Our next question comes from the line of Faiza All way from Deutsche Bank You May now proceed.
Yes, hi, thank you.
I wanted to just ask about the EBITDA outlook, because you mentioned some investments in data et cetera. So I'm curious if most of the change in EBITDA outlook is because of a revenue impact or if you're if you're embedding some.
Investment spending there.
<unk>.
Yes.
Doing this Chuck yes.
Obviously as we've talked about we're investing in our go to market sales strategy as well as technology this year and the <unk>.
Really the change there that you've seen from the previous guidance to this is really just more revenue topline.
We're going to maintain our guidance.
Proximately, 63% to 65% EBIT margin and that's net of the investments we're making in the year for 2022. So that's all baked in so so that's the margin profile in the guidance.
Okay understood and then you mentioned you mentioned several times that of maintaining financial flexibility and a strong balance sheet cash position like how are you thinking about using that to our benefit during this time.
Well I think I'll tag on to.
The investments, we're making right now first and foremost in the business and in the go to market sales.
And being ready to capitalize on that pent up demand.
As things recover that's first and foremost and we're going to and when you say maintain financial flexibility.
Our strong cash position is in the us.
Certain times is definitely something that we're very focused on and just maintaining that flexibility through these challenging times.
We will look at other opportunities.
As the business matures and we look at opportunities from time to time on the M&A front, but obviously just investing back in the business right now is the primary focus.
Great. Thank you.
Yeah.
Okay.
Our next question coming from the line of Vincent <unk> from Stephens you May now proceed.
Hey, Thanks, good afternoon.
First.
Wanted to talk about.
If you could discuss the conversations youre having.
With your lending partners and with the lending partners that you've signed up I guess with the.
Even at the midpoint of the guidance the implied second half you do have non OEM volume is shrinking so I'm sort of wondering if you could discuss like what.
Broadly what these banks and credit Union lenders are thinking and I know you mentioned one when credit Union maybe reached their limits. They were taking two month pause, but are you seeing maybe other lenders.
Maybe requiring high returns from wanting to reduce exposure or how do they how are they thinking about.
This current environment.
Partnership Thank you.
Yes, I don't think theyre trying to reduce their exposure or.
Even though our cost of funds that are seconds that big of an issue because you.
Even if a credit unions cost of funds comes up a half a point they are still going to be the lowest.
Interest rate in town relative to.
The refinance market that we're going after.
Truly just believes that it's a situation where those that have been really successful in our program and we've seen this over the years, even gone back Kevin Ali where they get some successful with our program that they just need to find additional cast a lab.
What they are trying to do is just kind of reorganize their balance sheet.
If you look at where mortgage rates are going and all these other asset classes.
The rates climbing on that there is still not I don't want to hold on to these long term.
Loans, not knowing where rates are going to go.
Perfect asset liability mix for credit Union is an auto loan that's got an average life of two and a half to three years.
Our yield.
Four times that of a prime loan.
It's just a matter of prioritizing where to get the cash from and where to deploy it.
I wanted to ask John It is even though we do have a couple of our partners.
Situation.
Operationally, we are actively trying to reallocate that to other partners.
And having.
Having calls and meetings regarding that so where everybody's at work trying to still take take those applications those.
Sources and place them at one of our other participating customers out there.
And then but.
OEM volume.
Actually Q2 was a little up from Q1.
So I think I think for the balance of the year. It's it should be in line with where it's trading right now.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Just one kind of a follow up on the bounce back.
Balance sheet question earlier, but yes, your cash position is $168 million kind of builds very nicely I know you talked about investment investing in the business and M&A, but.
Your balance sheet is very capital light and just wondering if you've thought about capital return like share repurchases. Since you have bought stock in the past at higher prices than where the stock is now or are there any any limitations to doing share buybacks. Thank you.
Yes, Thanks, Vincent Yes, no no there's no no limitation to doing share buybacks.
We don't have a current board authorization to buy stock back.
We evaluate that thoughtful decisions at the board level for us to think through and.
But again building cash and maintaining that financial flexibility is what we're focused on and investing back in the business right now.
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Yes.
Just a quick reminder, for everybody. If you would like to register for a question you can do so by dialing one four on your telephone keypad.
We have one more question in queue, it's coming from the line of Mike Grondahl from Northland Capital markets. You May now proceed.
Hi, This is Michael Q, John from Mike Grondahl, Thanks for taking the questions.
Hey, Mike.
Okay. Just a reminder, and I think last year early second quarter, you dropped the vehicle.
Value discount was that an impact year over year comparison, unlike the profit share.
Average there.
Yes.
Last I believe last April of 'twenty, one, we actually got rid of the 5% discount.
Our capture rates did increase.
From that but because it goes basically we would drop if we did that that reduced premium and reuss the contract rate.
Place.
Yes.
But I'd just point out.
Our loan amounts.
Howard premium and higher profit share as well and the addition of 84 months came out at higher premium Brian .
Liam rates as well.
Yeah.
Got it and then maybe just on.
Slide three has there been any vintage to call out on the realized versus.
Perspective performance announced.
That.
Can you repeat that Michael I didn't follow your question.
Sure just on the.
The contract asset estimates and profit share revenue has there been any Brian did you segment that I call out there or has that been pretty.
Base as far as the realized coming in ahead of.
Expectation.
Yes, I think I think the realized was just lower lower claims and severity of loss than we had originally modeled in that $6 4 million component and then the negative $3. Six was really just us putting more stress in the forward looking periods for higher severity of loss with prices used car values coming down and increase.
And then increased prepayments.
As well as increased.
Defaults forward looking so that's what all that is.
Alright, thank you.
Thank you.
Okay.
We have no further questions queued up I will turn the call back over to our presenters for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thanks, everybody for your continued interest and support the company.
I think we've got.
Great growth ahead of us here to continue to grow.
We're looking forward to doing that again.
Okay. Thank you.
All right, ladies and gentlemen that will conclude the conference call for today. We thank you very much for your participation and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.