Q3 2022 PHX Minerals Inc Earnings Call
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Hello and welcome to the PHX Minerals Inc. third quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Ralph D'Amico, Vice President and CFO . Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you for joining us today to discuss our 2022 third fiscal quarter results. With me on the call today for prepared remarks are Chad Stevens, President and Chief Executive Officer and Danielle Mezzo, Vice President of Engineering. After prepared remarks, we will open up the call to a Q&A session. The earnings press release that was issued yesterday is also posted on the investor relations website. Before I turn the call over to Chad, I'd like to remind everyone.
that during today's call, including the Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements regarding expected revenue, earnings, future plans, opportunities, and other expectations of the company, these estimates and plans, and other forward-looking estimates.
involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied on the call. These risks are detailed in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K , as such may be amended or supplemented by subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q , or other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The statements made during the conference call are based upon information known to PHX as of the date and time of this call. PHX assumes no obligation to update the information presented in today's call. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Chad Stevens, PHX's Chief Executive Officer.
Thanks Ralph, and thanks to everyone on the line for participating in PHX's 2022 third quarter conference call. We sincerely appreciate your time and continued interest in the company.
PHX has a rather simple business model. It is to allocate 100% of our free operating cash flow after dividends to acquire minerals in our core areas of concentration, being Haynesville, mainly Louisiana, and the scoop in southern Oklahoma. Just while the vesting of our more mature producing non-op working interest assets.
How would the old and in with the new? You'll have it.
This is basically a constant high grading of our asset base.
You will note that since implementing our mineral acquisition strategy, our non-op working interest producing volumes year over year have decreased by 35% and our royalty interest volumes have increased by 32%. Currently royalties represent two-thirds of our volumes and over 75% of our cash flow given higher margins from royalty relative to working interest.
We are acquiring minerals in our core areas of concentration in areas of known excellent rock quality under active, well-capitalized operators with a clear line-of-sight development, this we refer to as staying out in front of the drill bit. This strategy provides us high confidence that we will realize annual growing royalty volumes over the next several years as the minerals we acquire are developed. Thanks for watching.
With annual growing royalty volumes, we will see our expected EBITDA and net income grow proportionately.
As we grow our net income, we will see our return on capital employed improve as well.
If you annualize this fiscal third quarter 2022, our return on capital employed is approximately 18% and will continue to improve as more of these acquired minerals are developed. In this fiscal third quarter 2022 and as of August 4, 2022, we have closed on approximately 18 million of mineral acquisitions.
mainly in Haynesville and Louisiana. Pardon me.
In fiscal year 2022 year to date, a total of 45 million.
Since inception of our strategy in early fiscal year 2021, we have acquired 75 million of minerals in the Haynesville end scoop.
Also, as of yesterday, August 8, we announced the execution of a purchase and sale agreement to divest of the company's remaining non-op working interest assets in the Fayetteville Shale for $6 million, subject to customary closing adjustments, with closing expected by late September . For more information on whyatical
With our successful mineral acquisition program, we now have on our reserve books an inventory of approximately 2,000 undeveloped drilling locations.
These locations have been identified with a thorough geologic and engineering study to determine each individual location's productive capabilities.
expected timing of development, and the net value to PHx's mineral interest.
Based on recent operator rig activity over the last 12 months, we estimate approximately 200 of these locations will be drilled and converted to producing each year, and we expect that estimate is rather conservative.
This represents the foundation of our growing royalty volumes, EBITDA, and improving return on capital employed that I mentioned earlier.
you can review our most current IR slide deck posted on our website.
In that corporate presentation, you will find materials that discuss this development pace and the estimated annual EBITDA outlook of between $40 to $50 million by the 2024 to 2025 fiscal year timeframe.
To summarize, we have and will continue to build a mineral asset portfolio that provides annual growing royalty volumes, increasing annual EBITDA, and improving annual return on capital employed. This will in turn drive shareholder value.
I will now turn the call over to Danielle for her update on the drilling activity.
Thanks Chad, and good morning to everyone participating on the call. During the third quarter, third party operators active on our minerals converted 96 gross or 0.25 net wells to producing compared to 108 gross or 0.48 net wells converted to PDP in the second quarter, with the majority of the new wells located in the scoop and Haynesville du hundred Marshall listen and Brett
Additionally, our inventory of gross wells in progress was 155 gross, or 0.79 net, wells at the end of the third quarter compared to 134 gross, or 0.6 net, wells as reported in our prior earnings call. The majority of these wells are also located in the scoop in Haynesville Place.
The sustained high conversion rates of wells to PDP quarter over quarter are a direct result of successfully executing on our mineral acquisition strategy, paired with the elevated commodity prices and overall industry activity. Additionally, we continue to replace all the net wells converted to producing with new wells in progress. This continued replenishment of drilling inventory measured by WIPs is what will drive our increasing royalty volumes and free cash flow in the coming quarters.
In addition to well inventory, we regularly monitor third-party operator rig activity in our focus areas. We have 25 rigs present on PHX minerals and 96 rigs active within 2.5 miles of our ownership as of June 30th, compared to 18 rigs on PHX minerals and 86 rigs within 2.5 miles that we reported in the second quarter. The heightened activity present on and near our acreage is encouraging and indicates that we will continue to see a strong WIP inventory as wells are converted to PDP.
Now I will turn the call back to Ralph to discuss financials.
Thanks, Danielle, and thanks to everyone for being on the call today. For our fiscal third quarter and the June 30th, 2022, total hydrocarbon production volumes decreased 1% from the prior sequential quarter to 2.43 BCFE. This was comprised of a 3% increase in royalty volumes, primarily attributable to newly drilled and completed wells, and the hangs, rail, and scoop plays.
and a 9% decline in our working interest volumes, primarily attributable to wells being temporarily shut in in the Eagleford shale play in order to work over an adjacent set of wells. The operator in the Eagleford has indicated to us that these wells are projected to be back online in the next three months.
Royalty volumes are another quarterly record of 1.59 BCFE or 66% of total production volumes. Natural gas represented 78% of our total hydrocarbon stream.
As I have indicated in the last two earnings calls, we anticipate year-over-year royalty volumes for fiscal 2022 to be approximately 35% higher than fiscal 2021. We also believe that fiscal 2023 will be a year-over-year royalty volume for fiscal 2021.
will show similar growth compared to fiscal 2022.
Natural gas, oil, and NGL sales revenues increased 32 percent on a sequential quarter basis to a total of 19.5 million. Royalty sales accounted for 64 percent of total sales. We anticipate this percentage of total corporate sales to continue increasing in the coming quarters as our acquired minerals are developed and our legacy mature, non-operated working interest volumes decline or are monetized.
average realized prices.
Excluding the effective hedging received for natural gas, oil, and NGLs in the quarter, we're up 34% on an MCFE basis from the prior sequential quarter to $8.05, driven by higher oil and natural gas prices, and slightly offset by lower volumes.
Realized hedge losses for the quarter were $7 million. For the quarter, approximately 63% of our natural gas.
72% of our oil and 0% of our NGL production volumes were hedged at average prices of $3.16 and $44.25 respectively.
The majority of these hedged volumes were layered in during COVID in mid to late 2020. The remaining contracts entered into during that time continued to have less impact every quarter and will completely roll off by February of 2023. In future quarters, you will see higher realized pricing as we took advantage of the improved macro environment over the last six plus months and added new hedge contracts and much better pricing levels.
unrealized mark-to-market gains totaled 3.3 million during the quarter. The mark-to-market adjustments represent changes in the valuation of hedge contracts caused by the differences in June 30, 2022 oil and gas prices relative to the strike price. As hedge contracts settle in the future,
we will receive revenues for the prevailing price in that period which will offset the value of these mark-to-mark hedge settlements.
The company's LOE decreased 3% to $900,000 on an absolute basis, but increased 6% to $1.08 per MCFE based on working interest volumes only.
We expect to continue to see this metric fluctuate as we divest our remaining working interest assets, but they are also a less significant portion of the business as we grow our royalty volumes.
Total transportation, gathering, and marketing decreased 4% on an absolute basis to $1.43 million or $0.59 per MCFE on a sequential quarter basis as we continue to see a larger share of our overall production shift to lower cost basins such as the Haynesville.
Production taxes increased 33% on a sequential quarter basis due to higher realized commodity prices. Our production tax rate remained flat from the prior sequential quarter.
Cash G&A was flat at 2.3 million compared to the prior sequential quarter.
adjusted EBITDA was $7.2 million in our 2022 fiscal third quarter as compared to $5.8 million in the 2022 fiscal second quarter.
Net income for this quarter was $8.6 million compared to a loss of $4 million during the prior sequential quarter. Our total debt increased to $28.3 million as of June 30, 2022 from $24 million on March 31, 2022. This increase is associated with the previously announced mineral acquisitions.
with line of sight development in the Haynesville and Scoop. Our debt to trailing 12 month EBITDA stands at 1.31 times. We are pleased with our leverage and liquidity metrics and believe they are on solid footing to help us execute in our growth strategy. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Chad for some final remarks.
Thanks, Ralph.
We continue to see positive macro fundamentals in the energy space, particularly in the natural gas sector.
We are confident of our ability to continue to execute on our mineral acquisition strategy.
As we build on the acquisition success we have already demonstrated, this will translate into annual increasing royalty volumes.
associated cash flow, and improving shareholder value.
I am proud of the PHX employees who have worked very hard and embraced our strategy with enthusiasm and dedication. I would also like to express my appreciation to our Board of Directors for their dedication. They provide invaluable wisdom and advice toward our success. We look forward to keeping you updated on our progress. Thanks again for joining us today. This concludes the prepared remarks portion of the call. Operator, let's please open up the queue for questions.
Certainly. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue.
You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing star 1. One moment please while we poll for questions.
Our first question today is coming from Jeffrey Campbell from Alliance Global Partners. The merger line is now live.
Good morning and congratulations on a strong quarter.
I noticed the PSA to divest the working interest in the Fayetteville event. I just wonder, are you targeting a regional approach to other working interest divestments or was this an unusual opportunity?
Yeah, for the most part, Jeff, the legacy, these mature legacy non-operating interest assets were spread all over the place.
There was only a few assets that we owned in our portfolio that were very concentrated. One was this set of assets in the Fayetteville. We sold a portion of them last year to a non-op company that was very well-known for its
operator and then this is the second set that clears us completely out of the Fayetteville from a non-op working interest standpoint. We will retain our mineral loyalty interest in the Fayetteville but it gets rid of our non-op working interest. The only other concentrated asset is the Eagleford. The rest is small interest spread all over Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle.
I appreciate that, Colin. Thank you.
in these remarks.
Just wondering how much of that is expected to come from currently owned Assets as opposed to perhaps future production or assets to be acquired
That's a great question. A disproportionate large amount is from assets we already own.
Danielle or Ralph, you want to add color to that?
Yeah, thanks Chad. So Jeff, if you remember, when we make acquisitions, we're not really buying PDP heavy assets, right? So what we tend to buy has a significant proportion of permits or wells in progress, as we call them, that have already been spud or are waiting on completion, and then high quality pud locations as well. So what ends up happening is...
there is usually a, let's call it a three to nine month lag for a significant portion of the volumes from those wells to come online, right, and for us to book them. So if you look forward for the next 12 to 24 months, the vast majority of those volumes are gonna come from acquisitions that we have completed over the last 12 months or so. So new acquisitions I would say are probably.
In terms of those future volumes, you know, let's say 10 percent, somewhere around there, it's a very small percentage relative to the total.
Finally, I thought it was interesting that you see...
corporate headquarters in Fort Worth is an advantage considering that the bulk of your welling appears to be in Oklahoma and Texas or I'm not arguing deploying I just wanted it one to know if you could expand on your expectation
based on the location.
Yeah, a couple of, probably a couple of reasons. One,
We're not necessarily looking to locate our corporate offices where our assets are.
We're looking to locate our corporate offices where the deal flow and the overall activity of the industry is. The other guys and companies and small boutique outfits that are located in the Dallas-Fort Worth area that are in the mineral deal flow. So it's important to us. We're still relatively small and we want to grow as many people as we can.
as quickly as we can in a...
in an NAV accreted way. And so just to brand the company and put us out in the middle of the fairway to be involved.
and not miss out on potential deals is important to us. So we felt like it is important being located somewhere in the Dallas-Fort Worth area to be involved in that deal flow, deal activity, make sure we assure ourselves the highest chance of success in executing our strategy. I'm from Fort Worth.
I was commuting to Oklahoma City. It was a poor use of my time.
It was a poor use of my time.
And with computers and ability to work remotely, we don't really lose any efficiencies if I'm located, whether I'm located in Oklahoma City or Fort Worth.
Similar with our CFO Ralph. So he and I will be located in the fourth office with a couple of other support staff.
The rest of the team will remain in Oklahoma City and will meet on computer screens or in person as required. But I'm excited about being able to locate in Fort Worth and be out there in the deal flow and in the middle of the fairway to watch for deals.
along the way.
Okay, well, that makes perfect sense. So, thanks for the answer.
Thanks for all the answers as well.
Thank you. As a reminder, that's star one to be placed in the question queue. Our next question is coming from Derek Whitfield from Steveville. Your line is now live. I always want you to tell us that you didLynx.
Good morning, all, and congrats on your recent A&D progress.
Thanks Terry.
With my first question, I wanted to focus on your near-term WIPs.
Can you comment on any sizable well packages you're expecting over the next six months? It certainly appears from the presentation you have some higher average NRI coming up in the Angel.
Any comments you can share would be greatly appreciated.
Yeah, I'm going to let Ralph or Danielle.
Comment on that.
Yeah, let me take a crack and then I'll chime in. But I think this is just the nature of, if you look at this quarter, you saw production growth in each of the prior two quarters that was substantially higher than this quarter. And that's because we had some very high NRI pads or sets of wells that were brought online.
in each of the prior two quarters in the Haynesville. This quarter, it was more of an average NRI in terms of the gross wells that came online. We do have several additional well pads also in the Haynesville where the wells are being drilled and completed as we speak, right? So they should be on within the next three months and there's always a lag in terms of when we can book that revenue, but.
I would suspect that over the, you know, either in the current quarter or the next quarter, you know, you'll see some of these higher NRI pads coming online. And in future quarters, it's just the nature of the mineral business, right? Depending on which particular well comes online and how much of an interest we have, you see a little bit of that quarter to quarter volatility in terms of production growth. But if you look at it on a rolling 12-month basis, we're right on target with...
what I said in each of the last two quarters, which was that 35% year-over-year royalty volume growth.
Yes, I'll agree with Ralph. We have for our acquisition strategy, we've focused quite a bit on highly concentrated acres. We like larger concentrations in sections, so we get a really good NRI on some of those near-term wells and our focus on width and permit so we get that near-term line of sight development.
And as a follow-up to Jeff's question earlier, could you speak to your confidence in the royalty growth outlook as noted on page 20 of your presentation?
and your expected top-line production views for both royalty and working interest volumes adjusted for the recent working interest sales.
Yeah, I'm going to let Ralph answer the second part of that question. The first part we see, continue to see,
real robust deal flow. The deal activity out there is what we're excited about. We got more deals than we can say grace over, more deals than we can afford. We're still pretty small, but we're gonna continue to pedal as hard as we can to find the right deals at the right price and continue to grow the company. But we're excited about the opportunity set before us. Ralph, you wanna talk about top line growth he was asking about? Sure, so pro forma, so as Chad talked about in his comments.
from this sale with other minerals that we have in the pipeline that we're acquiring. Right? So if you try, if you pro forma all of that in, what I expect to see is roughly, you know, call it close to 75% of volumes coming from royalties, and, you know, north of 80, 85% of operating cash flow. So net of all, you know, expenses proportionally allocated to working interest in royalties.
coming from royalty volumes. So we're getting pretty close to, if you remember, you know, about a year or two ago, Chad stated that within, you know, let's say three years, we should be well north of 70, well north of 90% of our operating cashflow coming from royalty volumes. I think we're right on target to meet that, you know, that prediction that he made, you know, almost two years ago at this point.
So the business plan, in our opinion, is working very well.
Ralph, to add to that, I think one of the questions Derek was asking is...
the estimated volume projections that Ralph's talking about is pro forma.
for the Fayetteville sale.
Correct. Yeah. What's on page 20 includes the net out the volumes of the Fayetteville that we are that are currently under PSA to be divested. That's right.
Terrific. And as one final follow up for you guys, I wanted to touch on your recent stock performance and your share of purchases as well. While PHX has experienced some performance in the recent up cycle, I know you guys expect more. Given your valuation, what are the one or two items you're targeting this year to drive relative performance?
Yeah.
I say it often, I think Derek, you and I talked about it up in the chat.
Boston.
All CEOs feel like their company is undervalued, but when you just look at the facts...
We're trading at probably half on a total enterprise value, debt to total enterprise value basis. We're trading at about half a multiple of what our peer group is, maybe three and a half times to what peer groups may be, what Ralph, six, six and a half times. So we are clearly coming up from behind and is probably more our size.
overall size and float, the amount of shares traded each day and the value of those shares. We're trading about maybe $1.5 million worth of shares.
stock a day, but I think overall, given the quality of the assets that we've acquired and knowing what we know about...
the overall natural gas macro, what the active operators in the Haynesville are going to be doing. We have some pretty decent information about our springboard 3 asset in the scoop and what's going to be going on there over the next couple of years. I'm really excited about the Royalty volumes and...
and net income that are going to be generated from those assets. And that's why I bought some more recently, just kind of more out of frustration. I just don't understand why the market doesn't...
doesn't watch us a little bit more closely. But we're just going to continue to pedal hard. We think we're trading well under value based on what our peer group's trading for. And as we show our return on capital employed, what that number is, and it'll speak to the high quality of the assets we're acquiring. And if we do deliver on that return on capital employed, we should at some point get multiple expansion of some sort. I don't know whether it gets us to four or five times, but we'll do it and continue.
But that speaks to the stock price. Ralph, do you want to add to that?
No, I echo your sentiment. I mean, I think to anybody that's heard, you know, Chad and I on these earnings calls over the last two years that, you know, we've done exactly what we said we were going to do. I think the business plan is being executed well. We're happy with where the company is going. The stock price is a mystery to us. We don't get it, but, you know, look, you know, we see value there and both of us just...
you know, almost every quarter keep buying stocks. So, you know, I think, you know, I think that says a lot about how we feel about it, right? We keep putting, you know, we keep buying more shares, right? So...
To me that means that there's more upside
Well, thanks for your time, guys.
Thanks, Derek.
Thank you. Next question is coming from Donovan Shafer from Northern Capital Markets. Tim joined the company today aboutoles starting a project with someposting ofPD CBI that has now returned to the market.
Hi guys, thanks for taking my call. I wanted to ask you about the official audited reserves report that I think you'll be closing out.
in your fiscal year this next quarter.
So, you know, you'll be coming out with your updated reserves report.
Probably a couple months after that, during fourth quarter for calendar quarter.
So my first question is if historically with you guys having kind of an off-cycle reserves reporting kind of timing.
Do you get – have you historically seen…
much kind of investor reaction.
Of course, you don't want to necessarily be saying, oh, our stock price will do this or will do that. But, you know, sometimes...
the stock price will tend to vary of course with commodity prices over the course of a year but that doesn't always line up exactly with where and things end up kind of landing at the end of the year with reserves and there's kind of this true up where you know the auditor sits down says well you know some of these wells may be economic for an extra couple years based on this pricing and then of course there's the PV 10 value and the standardized measure and all of that
And so then finally those actual sort of official numbers come out. Have you seen historically where there is some disconnect there and so there is more of an investor reaction to those official numbers versus again, the sort of wiggles up and wiggles down over the preceding 12 months? In another way it's sort of just asking is that the type of thing that has been a catalyst in any way historically either to the upside or the downside.
That's a good question and I know Danielle, since our fiscal year ends this coming September 30th, so just six and weeks.
from now she's already started the year-end process.
Over the last two years since I've been doing this, this will be my third, I guess.
I've never seen when we release our year-end reserve report.
I've never seen any sort of
material reaction in the market where our stock price moves up or down because of any sort of...
fluctuation in our reserve book. I do believe when you look at our IR slide deck, slide six.
shows our reserve value based on SEC strip and kind of a...
pie in the sky up $100 $6
price as well and kind of what the share price is, but I think your reserve book more or less supports
multiple of cash flow type values. And I think that's what most, these days, most energy stocks, whether upstream E&P or mineral companies trade more on a multiple.
cash flow and kind of a enterprise value than they do on a reserve book but I think the reserve book okay help support that
Okay, well that makes a lot of sense. I think, sorry go ahead.
Yeah, I was gonna say Donovan the other challenge for for phx and and this is actually true of all mineral companies Right is if you look at the SEC reserve reserves, right an SEC pud, right? You need to know that it's going to be drilled within the next five years Well, no mineral company out there has the ability to predict that because they're not the operator, right? So what you end up seeing is And this is particularly true for us is that we have
significant amount of drilling locations, for example in the springboard 3, that I'll bet you the vast majority of them are puds on the operators books.
But for us, when you look at that corporate presentation, we have to classify it as a probable, and the reason is, as a mineral company, again, this is true of all mineral companies, we don't have any insight in terms of any formal insight that we can tell the SEC this well will be drilled within this period of time to meet their five-year guideline. So it ends up being booked from a SEC standpoint as a probable. We look at those as high-quality PUDs.
And if you look at even this year, there's been a significant number of probable reserves that never even made it as a proved undeveloped onto our books. They went straight to PDP because they were PUDs on the operators books. They get drilled, they get put on production and we start getting paid, right? So to us, those probables from a technical engineering and geology standpoint, they meet all the qualifications or the requirements for being approved and developed.
a resource. We just don't have the insight to be able to show the FCC that they will be drilled within five years. So there's a bit of a disconnect and that's something else that when you look at...
you know, the SEC year-end reserves, right, that's something that you really have to look carefully at all mineral companies and us included, right, to be able to see where do you shake out relative to the prior quarter because of that little nuance.
Sure, okay. Well, and then, so and I also appreciate Chad's comments, you know, about valuation on cash flow, the reserve sort of undergirding that.
But, well, and so I guess.
For my own shortcomings, I suppose I may be overly, you know, there's the old saying to a hammer everything looks like a nail and As someone who used to be a reserves, you know a reservoir engineer doing some of these types of forecasts. I can't help but you know
Kind of I made maybe I give them more attention than it
deserve. But so in the spirit of that, I am just curious, you know, because you have had a couple acquisitions, you know, you got the more recent couple acquisitions, you have the recent divestiture, there may be there may have been some additional acquisitions or divestitures over the, you know, trailing nine months or so that I may not be remembering. And so, you know, those are going to have some changes and it could even be, you know, maybe with the PDP.
Versus you know pod dynamic. I mean, maybe that could even be an optically Misleading you know decline in reserves or something hypothetically if the faya, you know if the faya bill Had more reserves you could book but then you're selling that to move into acreage where you're ahead of the bit But you know you can't book those reserves So I'm curious are there things you know heading into that? where Even though you know there hasn't been a material stock price response for
people like myself looking at those results. Is there anything you see there on the face of it, I would think that the standardized measure and all that would increase.
quite significantly because of the pricing, but the number of barrels and cubic feet of gas, you know.
I could see it increasing significantly because of extended tight curves, but...
You know sometimes you've got so many kind of fragmented wells and reserve engineers are sometimes hesitant to do that
So just curious if you can kind of talk to if you have any idea of what to expect when that happens if we'll see the real volume numbers go up or if it's more just going to be the economic value and And this kind of puts and takes on the acquisitions and divestitures
Yes, so from the top, and we can have Danielle add some color to it, but if you'll recall when I took over as full-time CEO in January of 2020, I was in the office of the CEO of
We changed our strategy to be a mineral-only company. And at that point, we completely wrote off all of our...
PUD and probable drilling locations that were associated with a non-op working interest. We wrote them off because we were no longer going to be participating in the drilling of wells. So from that point forward, all of our PUDs were wells that were in progress being drilled in that year. And the other, when you look at our reserve book, our Probables and Possibles are all associated with a non-op working interest.
value we've created since 2020 with all these new drilling locations we've acquired in buying these minerals.
So you look at our probability, as Ralph said, those are PUDs on operator's books, but we don't know when they're going to be developed, so we just call them probables.
So as the probables are developed, they convert to PDPs, but we're buying more and piling on more into the probable. So my guess is overall we've spent $45 million this year.
buying new minerals. My guess is, and I'll let Danielle correct me if I'm wrong, there should be an increase in reserves.
because of all the minerals that we've acquired and we're booking.
from those purchases.
Danielle, is that an accurate statement?
Yes, and particularly when you take into account our probs, which as Ralph said, are on a technical merit are as good as our PUDs. The only difference is PUDs are wells in progress or permits at this point. And I will say, as we divest these lower value working interest wells and we make these highly concentrated mineral acquisitions, we are really exchanging.
wells and reserves that are lower in value per MCFE, so much higher quality, much higher value assets, you know, as Chad said, out with the old and in with the new, just a higher quality asset base overall.
All we're selling in the Fayetteville is old non-op working interest PDP reserves. That's it.
Okay, okay. That's really helpful though. That is good to know, just again, from kind of calibrating my own perspective. So awesome. Thank you. Thank you so much guys. Very helpful. I'll leave it with that.
That's really helpful though. That is good to know. Just again, from kind of calibrating my own perspective. So awesome, thank you. Thank you so much guys, very helpful. I'll leave it with that. Okay, thanks.
Thank you. We reach the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for any further closing comments.
Yeah, we are really excited about the opportunity set before us.
We appreciate your interest and look forward to keeping you up to date on our activity. Thanks and we'll talk to you next quarter. Have a good day.
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.