Q2 2023 TJX Companies Inc Earnings Call

August 17, 2022

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by welcome to the Gtx companies second quarter fiscal 2023 financial results Conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session at that time. If you have a question you will need.

Press Star one.

This conference call is being recorded August 17 2022.

I'd like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of the <unk> companies Inc. Please go ahead Sir.

Thanks, Sheila before we begin Deb has some opening comments.

Thank you Ernie and good morning, the forward looking statements, we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially.

These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including without limitation. The Form 10-K filed March 32022.

These comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the <unk> companies, Inc. Any.

A recording retransmission reproduction or other use of the same for profit or otherwise without prior consent of T. J X is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other laws. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party, we take no responsibility for inaccuracy.

That may appear in that transcript.

We have detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international divisions in today's press release in the investors section of our website <unk> dot com reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures. We discussed today to GAAP measures are posted on our web site T. J X dot com in the investors section.

Thank you and now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

Good morning.

Joining me and Deb on the call is Scott Goldenberg.

I'll start today by once again thanking each of our global associates for their hard work.

I truly appreciate their commitment to bringing our customers excellent value every day.

Now to our results I am very pleased with our second quarter pre tax profit margin, which was above our plan and our earnings per share which were at the high end of our plan.

This is despite U S comp sales coming in lighter than we expected as.

As we believe historically high inflation impacted consumer discretionary spending.

We achieved the strong profitability through better than expected merchandise margin and disciplined expense management.

I can't emphasize enough how this quarter is a testament to how great our business model is.

Our teams executed our off price fundamentals extremely well and our merchants did an excellent job buying the right merchandise and the right categories.

Across the company our talented associates all played a part in delivering great value to our customers every day and helped our company drive strong profitability in the quarter.

As we enter the second half of the year, we see the flexibility of our business and our value proposition as key advantages in the current retail landscape.

While we're not immune to macro factors over our 46 year history, the flexibility of our off price model and our commitment to value have served us very well and different kinds of macro environments.

We attract a wide range of customers, which we believe is a key advantage in today's environment.

Long term, we remain very confident in our plans to capture market share and improve the profitability profile of T. J X.

I'll talk more about our opportunities for the remainder of 2022 and beyond in a moment.

Before I continue I'll turn the call over to Scott to cover our second quarter financial results in more detail.

Thanks, Ernie and good morning, everyone I'd like to Echo <unk> comments and thank all of our global associates for their continued dedication to T. G X.

I'll start with some additional details on the second quarter second quarter consolidated pre tax margin of nine 2% was above our plan. We are very pleased with our strong flow through despite our softer sales our pre tax margin outperformance was primarily driven by <unk>.

<unk> margin and effective expense management, which were both better than we planned pre.

Pre tax margin was down 150 basis points versus last year's adjusted 10, 7% merchandise margin had a significant benefit from a combination of strong mark on and our pricing initiatives.

Was down due to 240 basis points of incremental freight pressure <unk>.

Incremental wage costs were 80 basis points.

Second quarter U S comp door sales decreased 5% over an outsized, 21% open only comp increase last year versus fiscal 'twenty, which when some together would be a 16% comp increase on a <unk>.

Three year stack basis moves.

Moving on we are very pleased that our comp sales.

Our overall apparel business at <unk> were slightly positive every month of the quarter U S home comp sales were down low teens versus a 37% U S home open only comp increase last year and were the primary driver of the U S softer.

The softer U S sales trends, we saw for the second quarter U S. Average basket was up driven by a higher average ticket and U S customer traffic was down lastly earnings per share of <unk> 69.

We're at the high end of our plan.

Now to our divisional results at <unk> second quarter segment profit was 12, 9%.

Comp store sales decreased 2% versus an 18% opened only comp increase last year again, it was great to see their overall apparel comps slightly positive.

While customer traffic was down and we saw an increase in <unk> average basket driven by a higher average ticket.

At Homegoods second quarter segment profit of two 7% was hurt by nearly 800 basis points of incremental freight costs comp store sales decreased 13% versus a 36% opened only comp increase last year, when we saw outsized spending and home related categories home goods.

Average basket increased significantly driven by a higher average ticket and customer traffic decreased.

We were very pleased with the improvement in profitability, we saw that our international divisions at <unk>, Canada second quarter segment profit margin of 15, 8% exceeded their pre Covid Q2 fiscal 'twenty level overall sales increased 22% and benefited from having stores open.

All quarter this year.

On a constant currency basis, <unk>, Canada sales were up 28% in the second quarter.

At <unk> International second quarter segment margin of 7% was significantly higher than the first quarter and also exceeded their pre COVID-19 Q2 fiscal 'twenty level overall sales decreased 7%. This sales decline is entirely due to the impact of foreign exchange on a constant currency basis.

<unk> International sales were up 6% in the second quarter.

As to e-commerce. It remains a very small percentage of our overall sales we continue to add new brands and categories to our sites. So shoppers can see something every.

Something new every time they visit.

Moving to inventory balance sheet inventory was up 39% versus the second quarter last year on a per store basis inventory is up 35% on a constant currency basis, we are very comfortable with our balance sheet in store inventory levels. Importantly, overall store inventory turns are better than our pre pandemic.

Levels.

I'll finish with our liquidity and shareholder distributions during the second quarter, we generated $641 million of operating cash flow and ended the quarter with $3 5 billion in cash in the second quarter, we returned over $1 billion to shareholders through our buyback and dividend programs now I will turn it back to Ernie.

Thanks, Scott I'd like to start by sharing the key traffic.

Sales and profitability opportunities, we see for the remainder of the year.

Starting with the top line.

First we are excited about our merchandising plans for the fall and holiday season.

Again this year, we will be flowing our collective assortments to our stores and online multiple times a week. This is a strategy that has worked well for many years and sets us apart from other retailers during the busy holiday season as shoppers can can see something new every time they visit us.

We are confident that we can execute on our merchandising initiatives and manage our supply chain to keep our shelves fully stocked.

Second available availability of merchandise across good better and best brands is exceptional.

We have plenty of open to buy and I have great confidence that our buying team of more than 1200 buyers will bring the right brand fashion and value to our consumers throughout the years.

Next we are laser focused on driving traffic and sales with our marketing initiatives. Each year, we have sharpened our messaging to reinforce our value leadership position.

Each of our banners are communicating that we offer shoppers more for their money and at the same time deliver great brands and quality.

In an environment, where consumer wallets are stretched we believe it is as important as ever to amplify our value messaging across TV digital and social media platforms.

I also want to highlight that our customer satisfaction scores remain very strong.

Further we continue to attract a significant number of millennial and Gen Z shoppers, which we believe bodes well for the future.

Moving to profitability. We are extremely pleased that we are able to increase our full year pre tax margin guidance in this environment.

Giving us confidence on the merchandize margin opportunities we see.

The buying environment is very attractive and we believe we can continue to benefit from buying better.

Further our pricing initiative is working very well our teams have done an outstanding job in implementing this initiative over the past year and we are very pleased that our value perception scores remain very strong.

Again, we are seeing extraordinary off price buying opportunities in the marketplace and have no issues with overall availability.

We are in a terrific inventory position and we have plenty of open to buy to take advantage of the current environment.

This allows us to offer even more exciting merchandise and value to our shoppers, which is our top priority every day.

Lastly, we remain focused on managing expenses and continue to look at ways to operate our business more efficiently.

Now I'd like to remind you of the characteristics of our business that we believe strongly position us to continue our successful growth around the world over the medium and long term.

First and foremost is the strong appeal of our great values outstanding merchandise and differentiated treasure Hunt shopping experience.

Further we believe the ability to touch and feel merchandise and take it home. The same day is very important to consumers.

Second we see an excellent opportunity to grow our global store base by at least another one.

500 stores in our current geographies.

We are extremely confident that there will be more than enough real estate locations and merchandise available to support our store growth plans.

Again being one of the most flexible retailers in the world is a tremendous advantage and the flexibility of our opportunistic buying supply chain and store formats enable us to change up our floor space to expand hot categories and trends that shoppers are looking for.

That's our profitability beyond this year, we remain committed to returning to our pre COVID-19 pre tax margin level of 10, 6% within three years.

We expect that across all of our divisions, our merchandise margin opportunities the moderation of expense headwinds, particularly freight and our focus on expense management will contribute to our improved profitability.

As always we believe driving outsized sales is our best opportunity to improve pretax margin over the long term.

Turning to corporate responsibility I'd like to update you on our commitment to building a more inclusive and diverse workplace.

Last year, we completed our global associate inclusion and diversity survey this.

This was an important step and we use the findings to help define <unk> global inclusion and diversity priorities for the company.

Increase the representation of diverse associates throughout all levels of our talent pipeline.

Equip leaders with the tools to support the difference with awareness clearness sensitivity and transparency.

And empower our associates to integrate inclusive behaviors language and practices and how we work together and understand our role and responsibility and inclusion.

We have a number of initiatives underway to help support. These priorities. For example, we have introduced a new leadership competency and cultural factor focused on inclusion.

In addition associated resource groups similar to those we have in the U S have launched and are now active in both Canada and Europe .

Also teams throughout the organization I've set up committees to better incorporate inclusion diversity into our everyday work.

And our communities, we continue to support a number of organizations that work with black communities and other communities of color.

In addition, we have deepened relationships with some nonprofit partners in the U S to expand our reach to diverse students for recruitment efforts.

We appreciate that this is a work in progress and we remain committed to our global priorities and to helping associates Bill welcome valued and engaged.

In closing I want to emphasize my confidence in the future of T. J X. We have a long track record of successfully operating to our many different types of economic and retail environments.

We believe value is as important as ever to consumers and delivering great value has been our mission for over 45 years.

We are very confident in the power of our off price buying and pricing initiatives, while maintaining our value gap with other retailers as always.

We continue to invest in our stores and shopping experience, which we believe positions us strongly and we remain committed to returning cash to shareholders.

Further we have a management team with decades of off price expertise at T. J Maxx, and a very deep bench of talent, who have successfully navigated through the unprecedented COVID-19 environment.

I am convinced that we are set up well to grow our top and bottom lines over the medium and long term and I'm confident in our plans to grow <unk> into an increasingly profitable $60 billion plus revenue company.

Now I'll turn the call back to Scott for some additional comments and then we'll open it up for questions Scott.

Thanks, again, Ernie I'll start with the <unk>.

Full year, we now expect full year U S comp sales to be down 2% to 3% versus an outsized 17% U S opened only comp increase last year. This guidance now reflects the flow through of our second quarter U S comp sales and our expectations for the second half of the year.

Which assumes our three year stacked U S comp continues at levels similar to recent trends for the full year. We are now planning total <unk> sales in the range of 49 six to $49 9 billion. The lower sales guidance includes our lower than planned second quarter sale.

<unk> and our updated sales expectation for the second half of the year. Despite the.

The reduction in our sales plan, we are pleased to be raising our guidance for the full year adjusted pre tax margin to nine seven to nine 9%.

This is 10 basis points higher than our previous guidance due to our assumption for even stronger flow through for the back half of the year.

Our improved profitability outlook versus our prior guidance lines is due to stronger merchandise margin better expense management and less incremental freight and wage.

Wage pressure expected in the second half of the year for.

For modeling purposes, we are now assuming a 140 basis points of incremental freight expense and 70 basis points of incremental wage costs.

For full year adjusted earnings per share. We are now planning a range of three five to $3 13.

Which is up 7% to 10% over last year's adjusted $2 85. This guidance now includes a <unk> <unk> negative impact from FX that was not contemplated in our original full year plan. Excluding this impact the high end of our earnings per share guidance would be the same as our original plan.

For modeling purposes for the full year were currently anticipating an adjusted tax rate of 25, 5% net interest expense of approximately $20 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 1.1 dollars 7 billion.

We remain committed to returning cash to our shareholders through our dividend and stock repurchase programs in fiscal 'twenty. Three we continue to expect to buyback 225 to $2 5 billion of T. J X stock.

Now to our third quarter guidance for the third quarter, we're planning pre tax margin in the range of $10. One to 10, 4%. This guidance assumes approximately a 100 basis points of incremental freight expense and about 80 basis points of incremental wage costs in the third quarter, We're planning U S comp source.

Sales to be down 3% to 5% over an outsized 16% U S opened only comp store increase last year.

Next we are planning third quarter <unk> sales in the range of $12 one to $12 3 billion for modeling purposes in the third quarter. We're currently anticipating a tax rate of 25, 8% net interest expense of approximately $2 million and a weighted average share count of one $1 7 billion.

As a result of these assumptions were planning third quarter EPS was <unk> 77 to 81 per share.

Our third quarter and full year guidance implies for the fourth quarter pre tax margin will be in the range of 10, one to 10, 4% U S comp stores will be in the range of flat to down 1% and earnings per share will be in the range of 92 to 96.

In closing I want to reiterate that we are confident with our medium and long term growth and profitability plans. Further we have a strong balance sheet and are in excellent financial position to navigate the current environment, while simultaneously investing in the growth of our business and returning significant cash to our shareholders now we are happy to <unk>.

Take your questions and as we do every quarter, we're going to ask that you. Please limit your questions to one per person in one part to each question to keep the goal on schedule and so that we can answer questions from as many analysts as we can.

And now we will open it up to questions.

Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question. Please press <unk>.

Darwin on mute your phones and record your name clearly if you need to withdraw your question Press Star Q again to ask a question. Please press star one our first question will come from Lorraine Hutchinson. Your line is open.

Thank you good morning.

Can you just talk a little bit about your view of the U S consumer.

That changed over the course of the quarter are you seeing any pushback to the price increases you've taken and are you seeing that trade down customer shop your store a little bit more thank you.

Thanks, Lorraine first of all our U S customer trend in the quarter.

It's moved around a bit I think.

What happened in this quarter is when a little bit of that.

Fuel Spike if you remember back in the middle of a quarter. That's when we had a big ramp up on that in addition to really food. Those are the two inflationary categories that really we feel can impact our consumer the most.

The fuel has obviously come down more recently so.

I'm thinking there we might have a bit of a lag in terms of the benefit of that have been coming down and that could that could work out better prices. This quarter moves on there was no. Let me be clear on your question about pushback on the pricing.

We have zero, we not only do we do qualitative stuff.

Studies on it we are actually able to measure all of down to the SKU level turns how we're selling an item with where the retail has been adjusted but even entire categories departments and the store in fact.

We're measuring our turns and all of these things relative to pre COVID-19 physical.

Fiscal 'twenty.

<unk> 19, and in most cases, we are actually turning our inventories faster than them and that as you know was a very very good year for us and a real.

Actually model of business that we're very happy with them in an inventory turn and sales perspective. So we are.

Zero concern overall, we've had a couple of items here that we have found and we react quickly if it hasnt worked but I would say we're in the our batting record is in the probably 95% zone. So great question by the way because of course, we monitor that every week.

So that has been a non issue again, we felt lorena was prudent to.

When we went to this more conservative sales for the back half I would tell you we did that and knowing that we wanted to be conservative it's been a little ball, it's moved around a bit we tend to look at the three year stacks, how do our sales compared to FY 'twenty and that's kind of where we.

Looked at the recent trend at the end of the second quarter and Thats, where we just kind of apply that going forward. Our intention is always as you know two to beat that the management team and every division is on.

In a mode to beat that I have to tell you that I think and it's too far out for us.

Two.

Changes the numbers writing up when we have Q4 is where we feel like theres a lot of opportunity for us.

And I would say if you look at that I know you're aware of this we kind of ran out of some steam there in some categories and businesses last year and I'm sure I'll get into a more on other questions. During the call, but we have I feel like a great opportunity.

To driving some more incremental sales in Q4, specifically thanks for the question.

Yes.

Thank you.

Our next question will come from Matthew Boss Your line is open.

Great. Thanks, So it's kind of a perfect setup for my question Ernie So on the overall product availability are there any inventory constraints by category that you still see remaining or on the very attractive buying environment and maybe some of the category opportunity you left on the table last year.

<unk> do you see this translating now to an optimal fall and holiday assortment across apparel and home and maybe just last could you elaborate on the excitement you cited in the release for some of the back half initiatives to drive traffic.

Sure No great question, Matt and it does piggyback on what we started to talk about with Lorraine.

Wow.

And strengths I would tell you there are no the only constraint that would apply in this discussions as the constraints and us having a whole back all the merchants from buying too much too soon so.

We have this is self inflicted constraints, we're putting on because the teams right now and I know.

My senior team right now one of the prime responsibilities has been too.

This really gets at the meat of what's been going on has been to get at holding the merchants back from buying too much too soon as you know we mentioned in the release and I think even ahead of this many of you were aware of the amount of.

<unk> in the market.

Hesitate to use the word unprecedented but it is at a different level I would say that we've seen and it's across our good better and best zones.

And so I'm going to give you. An example that speaks to a place where we've been challenged but I would tell you gives us.

A level of optimism as you would say getting to that optimal mix and an excitement level for the back half. So we've been struggling in.

In our home area has other retailers has and you can see what the Homegoods sales. However, they have done as has mom acts specifically both have gone in and kept their inventory is very clean and taken aggressive markdowns to ensure that we go into the back half with no liabilities and mix.

So we can deliver as much fresh excitement.

Based on what's working and chase the hotter trends and vendors. So homegoods, specifically again, where we've been a little soft around the on the three year stack than we would've liked.

Is in a terrific inventory position now they put in a lot of work to get there.

But what they've done is created significant open to buy to the point of and normally we don't give.

Number is like I'm about to give you, but I would tell you at this point in time that we are going to buy 4 million units and home goods over the next few weeks all to be what we call later planned and shipped into September for selling in September and because of the market situation with the availability there we're able.

To go after the categories that are happening the healthy ones on home and buy them even better.

So we've been buying goods really better than ever and Homegoods recently and I think it is.

To help us drive sales because we are going to be so fresh we're going to be taking some of the best goods, we're going to be able to pick and choose.

Out of the market because there's so much availability and Thats again 4 million units that will be bought in the next couple of weeks and shipped to the stores and to sell by ship and sell.

And the next month of.

September so <unk> larger scale, great inventory position.

I think what's happening in the brands and this is Mike.

Preempt some of the other questions, but with your excitement for fourth quarter to get to the optimal mix when we get the fourth quarter.

Brands means so much for gift, giving and so what I'm very happy about what I'm starting to see on the on order again significant open to buy significant availability across better and best and good out there as I think we're going to have a mix that has even more brands and some new vendors that we didn't even have <unk>.

Last year in some of our hottest categories I actually get an update on key vendor buys every week in the last two weeks have yielded some vendors. It's a meaningful quantities that I know we did not have last year. So it's all tough to measure and put into the <unk>.

Sales forecast right now it just it just gets me excited that I think we have some upside there so sorry for the long winded answer, but youre touching on some of the most exciting part of the model and the part of the secret sauce that really I think is is going to set us apart from everyone else. So.

Thanks.

Great color. Thanks Ernie.

Welcome.

Our next question will come from Kimberly Greenberger Your line is open.

Great. Thanks, so much for taking the question.

Ernie and Scott you guys have been talking about getting back to this to the 10% plus pre tax margin in the back half.

I mean any year when so many retailers are struggling with margin visibility you guys look to be sort of solidly on track.

Hit those targets.

I wanted to know if you can sort of step back and talk about.

Margin not specific targets necessarily for 2023 or 2024.

Just what are the puts and takes as we head into next year and the following what are the puts and takes on margin and do you see opportunity.

<unk>.

Claw back even more.

The margin here over the next couple of years.

<unk>.

We saw under some pressure through Covid.

Yes, Kimberly I'll, let Scott jump in on some of the big pieces of this but I'd like to highlight one thing I mentioned.

In the script as well first of all.

I'm thrilled with we and we called this out back at really at the beginning of the year that we thought we could approach getting.

Coach at 10% and we're getting there was we're talking I think at 97 to 99 this year, but even over the three year Scott I think we will talk to this.

We're feeling good about getting back to that pre Covid 10, 6% for T. J X, which is right I think what you're getting at and he is going to give you. Some of the some of the puts and takes but let me give you another piece on that.

I think is really.

One thing is a moderation obviously of.

Some of the other expenses around us freight for example.

We realized where wages coming thats been something we haven't talked.

On this call about but we kind of have a good feel for where that's going.

The Big game changer right now in this environment.

In addition to what Scott is going to talk about is our merchandise margin.

Not that I'm, leaving him a lot to talk about.

Is the.

Merchandise margin.

Opportunities, we see really from two things we've been talking more in the last two calls about retailing.

Right retailing.

<unk> <unk> and <unk>.

The way, we are changing retail, but the buying better as one of the things right now we're seeing as we're able to really because of the availability out there in our lower our costs on.

Unlike goods and so we're kind of over the next couple of years, what I'm envisioning as we're going to win on both sides of it on the retail and on the cost of the goods because our buyers are doing a terrific job.

And the market and again the market right now across all the different categories and vendors is really yielding.

Some amazing opportunity and this will not be short term based on what's happening in the industry as far as <unk>.

Store closures and market shift in online Pat online shifting patterns.

We think we get market share, but we get margin opportunity on that.

Scott I don't know view.

Yeah.

I needed to put some my mouth got a little dry last few minutes.

A few things.

The first I'd say that we're starting as Ernie said I mean, when we started the year. We thought we were going to be similar to last year in that 95% 96 range. So the fact that we have dropped.

Effectively ex FX and almost $2 billion in sales from our original guidance and our margins are going up I think just speaks as Ernie I think said several different times to the model and our ability to.

In a sluggish environment, we've never said, we're immune from sales we've been able to take advantage of those other aspects of the business Im good gross margin and the.

And expense management that we do when we flex down.

Again, Ernie I think touched on it but we.

We've managed our markdowns quite well, maybe a little more due to some of the home sales, but our markdowns have.

Have been slightly higher but in line.

<unk>.

With what we would've expected.

And our as we move through the freight starts to moderate a lot of this.

Has to do with the freight we did say if the environment was such that the freight would moderate.

We would we would be able to improve our margin and Thats certainly is what happening in the back half and we still would expect our freight rates to be to be to be better next year. Some of that has to do a lot with them.

What our teams are doing the logistics folks and others in terms of a lot of the mitigation strategies getting longer term contract rates more using.

Much more contract rate contract rates on the spot market than the spot market for ocean freight.

We are taking advantage of where we're moving our goods into what ports and I think a lot.

Sort of other strategies and we think some of the demurrage costs and other things, where we believe we're going to be going down next year. So some of that is reflected in our back half and some of that we think will continue into next year by starting at a higher base next year I mean.

We would hope that we're in a sluggish environment.

Worldwide up from an economic point of view homes.

Obviously, although we have changed the mix the apparel is up 5% more than what it used to be it's still more than what it was in the home than compared to what it was in 'twenty.

And I think we are.

Maintaining these margins we go into next year and get back to the level of comps, we would see pre COVID-19 I think that with a <unk>.

Some slight increases in retail and adding that to the level. We would see this year, we should be able to as we've spoken of over the last several quarters increase our profitability, assuming as Ernie said Theres no major changes to.

Two the headwinds so.

Also this hasnt been a.

Other retailers have talked to it.

Flow of both the merchandize into our distribution centers worldwide.

It has certainly not been optimal from an expense efficiency point of view and like what we call our output per hour. So I think those are things that next year, we would we would hope to get better once we flow a little better and I think get back to having less lead times in.

In buying so we're buying.

Closer to need so I think again, its all setting us up well for.

Our continued improvement on a.

A more normalized sales increase.

Great very clear thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Lajoie. Your line is open.

Hey, Thanks, guys curious if you can talk a little bit about what you saw.

Throughout the quarter on a monthly basis, maybe changes in traffic patterns and any detail you might be able to provide by by concept.

Usually you say something about the quarter to date period. So curious if youre seeing comp trends in line with that third quarter comp guidance.

Earlier, I think you made a comment about maybe there being a lag effect.

On the gas price reduction does that mean that you have not seen any sort of a pickup.

Gas prices have come down and you can say on <unk> quarter to date.

Yes, I'll, let Scott jump in but I'll talk about the quarter to date basically the guidance. We gave is based on how we're trending so.

That's.

We're right in line with with what we just gave for guidance.

To your point could.

I'm, hoping we get a little benefit as that fuel factor wears off a little and.

The other dynamic that we're not sure of that wasn't in the quarter. We havent talked about it is we had some weather noise I guess, a little during the quarter, where the weather was.

For apparel was a little.

And it was just extremely hot and certain areas of the country. So I don't know if that hit us by a little so this is where we say we wanted to be prudent on our go forward.

Comp estimates and stay conservative.

My goal and the team's goal is to.

Is to beat those and I think I think we just think we have upside if you look at some of those other issues as well as.

We.

Going into this quarter, so far I would tell you our LOE was a little less than probably we would have liked.

That is.

And that is getting into the stores as we speak and I think that could give us a little bump up at the end of August going into September .

Because we did run a little a little lighter than we would have liked at the end of July so that hit Q2, and it really hit us a little having said that again, we're trending right now where we're giving you the guidance.

So hopefully that gives a little a little color there yes.

Yes.

Yeah, just to add what Ernie said I think we've been.

We've done the sales I'll call it forecasting or what we put in our guidance.

Exactly the same way at the end of the when we started the year to the first quarter to now and that we've taken whether whatever we think the appropriate period, but it's generally been four to six weeks of the most recent trend and use that for the rest of the year.

Regardless of trying to.

Is there any said, we think we might be able to do better in the fourth quarter, but we've just held that trend because thats. What we are seeing because last year was such a volatile year on the upside where those comps as we've said many times.

Sure.

21% in the second quarter, 16% in the third quarter moderating in the fourth quarter of last year, but still.

Higher than in typical years so.

We just felt that with a more prudent way from a sales perspective within within the sales.

And then the adjustment it's more home goods adjustment then more Max adjustment as our home sales have.

No.

Home goods sales dropped a bit more than the <unk> sales from the prior trend and Thats reflected in our go forward trends.

Other than that addressing maybe the first question that was asked on the call.

We're.

Ernie alluded to whether it's inflation or gas prices.

In the first quarter for the first time in 567 years, we saw that are lower where our stores are in lower income.

Areas, where drop below the higher income areas that is still true.

Through the second quarter, although the change from the first quarter to the second.

Was equal.

Equal but.

The higher demographic stores are still doing better than the lower and again thats what pretty.

Pretty much of a big change versus the last five to seven year trend everything I think it just seem to at least for our spend stay similar type of impact across the different demographic levels.

And again not much change also from a geographic perspective within the United States as well pretty pretty equal the change from the first quarter to the second.

Yeah. Thanks, Thanks for the color Scott Ernie what drove that slow a slow.

Relative to what you would have liked.

Quarter there.

So what we do is we look at the way sales are trending.

And so when we were having that little bumps down in July .

<unk>.

We slowed the shipping a little bit and that's what we do it's a big ship and so.

We probably ended up with a little bit less shipping.

Then we would have liked however, we reacted a week or two later and we know it will be in good shape at the end here, we have an advantage.

Yes.

Paul in the way, we stage goods in our warehouse right because we've always talked about it we can use it to manage so if we see say this happens quite a bit by the way if we see sales slowing we're able to slow our shipping out of our Dcs, but sometimes you get caught off guard and this was one of those where we shipped to the sales, but the sales started nudging up a little.

We realized we probably could have shipped a little bit more and so it's just that's our own execution.

Yes, I would tell you there was nothing of impact of that other than us.

But the teams are great and they reacted quickly and so we ended up with is a couple of a couple of weeks, a blip, where we're probably given up a little business.

But then we'll be back on track really in about two weeks from now so yes. Good question.

That is part of it if it was if it was easy anyone would do it right but.

Yes.

It's a big ship when you have that many stores and I give the teams a lot of credit because they caught it.

Quickly and by the way I'm, giving you the time that we don't talk about the times when.

When.

Nine out of 10 times, if we slow the shipping or increase the shipping based on their trend that happens to be the right amount.

Which isn't always easy this just happened to be one of the times, we're a little on the wrong side of it.

Got it thanks, a lot good luck.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay.

Your line is open.

Great. Thank you so much.

Just curious about what's baked into the guidance in terms of what you see from competition from your from the other off price retailers, meaning whether it's nordstrom rack or Brian Tuna Ross.

Given that obviously inventory available it seems really strong for your company, but maybe it's not so great out there for everybody at large do you expect them to get more competitive and what impact you think that would have on the business. Thank you.

Yes, Jay.

So.

We're pretty simple with the teams here again, our buyers are excellent and our planning and allocation team and we.

The good news is we kind of keep them focused and I tell them not to worry too much about what the competitors are doing because.

Let's face it we're in a bit of a.

Fortunate position. This is not anything we're doing but we're so big and we have a lot of strong relationships with certain some of the strongest relationships with certain vendors.

And some of the vendors don't overlap as much.

With those competitors youre talking about and some do.

From what we've seen and what we hear there is plenty of goods honestly to go to everybody in the off price World right now and.

They typically is by the way, but right now we don't foresee that as being.

Any issue I don't I don't know, how they that's up to them as far as how they're running their open to buys and what theyre doing is as far as.

How far they want to buy out or whatever we right now if any.

Anything our strategy on the buying of goods is to get more liquid and it has been for the last month.

And two by less further out than we typically have because of that we're not worried about other competitors buying the goods, we think theres going to be more goods.

And unusual amount more goods across all of the branded areas, which by the way going back to what I mentioned before I think for Q4.

Gift, giving I think we're going to have some of the best branded content. We've had in a while again regardless of what competitors are doing in terms of how much they are buying or not.

Good.

Now let me say good question, we do talk about our merchants talk about in a category with a vendor.

Based on this amount of goods that we think that could go to one of the other competitors is important for us to have or were they weigh all of that out when theyre, making buys.

And again Thats why I give them all the credit on handling it all really really well in this environment.

I have to say, we like an environment like this where there's a lot of strangely enough a lot of volatility around.

That generally bodes well for us because in the end I, usually think theres a market share opportunity for us to keep getting additional brick and mortar market share from other brick and mortar out there because the model is so flexible and it will allow us to chase the hunter category trends more nimbly than most retailers.

<unk>.

But thanks for your question.

Got it thank you so much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brooke Roach. Your line is open.

Good morning, and thank you so much for taking our question.

You've made some comments about the strong buying environment and the opportunities that that are buying can drive some of the margin improvement that is.

Underpinning that improvement at 10, 6% pre tax margin can you discuss your view on the longevity of this benefit and perhaps the opportunity for this buying environment to persist even when we've heard about some order cuts into the second half of this year and also.

More promotional retail environment overall, thank you.

Sure Yes.

These are just these topics are things we talk about internally quite frequently first of all we think we have multiple years of longevity to this strategy.

From what we're seeing there is even probably more opportunity in the retailing or the buying of goods as we continue as well as by the way not just merchant driven some of the costs that Scott mentioned.

Yeah.

Could be a couple a few year trend because they.

Some of those freight costs went up so dramatically so fast.

It could be kind of a bit of a slow correction that we don't think it's going to happen fast so between buying goods retailing the way we're retailing.

Fact that we mean more to the market.

Than ever before and.

And to key vendors and as well as well and Youre talking about by the way the promotional environment. So we haven't seen the promotional environment, if anything because of what's happening with inflation.

Again, we look at the promotional environment is less promotional and a lot of these costs are baked in even going forward.

The promotional environment not.

Not getting any worse for a.

A few years I think we're good for a couple of years there and.

As I said back in the script our mission still is our out the door retails that we provide to the consumer has that maintain that gap.

Between the outdoor retailer that they have and what we sell it for our out the door retail, which is always our ticketed price.

I do if you if you are onto a whole we could spend a whole phone call on this but if you look at the promotions happen Theres still a you know a lot of retailers that are still doing the very high low game of sale all the time and its I always look at that where consumers today are looking for.

Anticipate.

They're looking for an exciting treasure hunt and entertaining shopping experience in stores.

And we continue along with that value equation, we continue to provide those two things in fact, one thing we haven't talked about today is we're very bullish on keeping our store experience right in line with the strong merchandise values and excitement that we're getting so where.

We're going back to our remodeling program aggressively we have a new prototype in our Marshalls business, specifically that we're excited about.

That we're starting to rollout because we want our.

We believe there is a market share gain not just on.

Number one by our merchandise values, yes, but number two by the shopping experience.

So that is a long thats a long term play as well just so you know.

But I know you were talking about about the buying and the retailing no reason to think this won't go on for a number of years.

And it was a good question Brooks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Omar Saad Your line is open.

Thank you and good morning, Ernie I was hoping maybe you could elaborate a little bit the comment you made earlier about the availability of brands and the excitement you have around especially for the fourth quarter around brands.

Designer brands, just kind of across categories is more specific to apparel or some of the fashion areas.

Maybe also talk about T. J Maxx, obviously tcs companies, obviously known for its flexibility at scale, maybe talk about broadly your ability to reassert away from home categories, if theyre going to be soft for a while as you.

Deal with it.

Consumers deal with inflation and you cycle those big gains from last year and towards some of those more reopening type categories, because the organization as a whole have the ability to kind of shifted some merchandising assortment.

No.

Now to our two year.

Two big things that where we're approaching I'll.

I'll start with the Rio.

We are short from home, we've been doing that consistently.

In <unk> and in the international divisions and in total T. J X, where we have moved funding out of home goods and into more Max and within Europe and in Canada. We do the same thing where we are.

We take open to buy.

And sometimes by the way we move the actual merchants out of those areas to the areas that are the more trending areas that we forecast over the next 12 to 18 months. So we have been doing that consistently.

Since we were watching the home trend and it's really one of the strengths of the business model because we can do it. So quickly again, we buy so much of the inventory so close and relative to traditional retailers, we don't get stock with this big liability of home product like many retailers would you.

You tend to read about some of the other retailers that are more bought in advance how they run into really a profit hit because there. They are stuck with a liability we are not.

To that degree we took our markdowns as I said earlier, and we were able to move more over.

On your first part Omar which is interesting.

The brands are across.

Yes, not just actually not just designer.

And not just the apparel so we're getting we're getting some up.

Brands I can't give you what they are but this is applies to accessories hard lines. If you if you walk in our store even in some of the.

Some of the hard lines, either the good into OLED, where home is or in.

And our <unk>.

Q line area Youre going to see some new vendors there.

But youre also going to see that we've gone after some of those categories more aggressively than before because we're getting new vendors at different levels of goods. So when we talk about.

Good better best sometimes it can be assumed I'm talking about on the best and is designed for apparel and it isn't always that way its actually I guess you would call it.

Better or design, our hard lines of merchandise that we have some of it which by the way is is we as we go to Chris Smith on gift, giving which I think you mentioned some of those hotline better vendors, which are special our great gifts.

And it's not just the apparel because as you know you probably personally our friends.

Today, we don't.

Consumers don't just give up parallel guests. It's also.

Other hard lines gifts somewhat some of it in the tech area, we have that tech carrier out there in the queue line and Thats often given those are great gifts, especially when we're able to buy some better brands on that and so that's all of the type that we're really excited about and I think is going to help us with that Q4 opportunity.

Thanks, Tony Great color good luck for three.

Walmart.

Thank you.

Final question of the day comes from John Kernan. Your line is open.

Alright, Thanks for squeezing me in congrats on a nice quarter.

Certainly not a believer the point, but just can you talk to the mark on opportunity you've talked about in prior calls it seems like youre getting more conviction in.

And the opportunity and the deals you are getting from vendors and then maybe just elaborate on what this means for merch margin and gross margin as we go forward.

Sure John well.

We spent more time, Scott and I, both really on the prior two calls because I guess it was more new news was talking about the retailing of the goods in terms of how that would create some mark on and the ability to offset cost.

With that whole strategy again that.

We are a byproduct of the fact that all the retailers around us for the most part have had to raise retails on certain categories or some as you know have done it more on a widespread raising of retail across the board. We didn't do that we did it very selective and surgically, but what's happened is.

For different reasons in this environment our teams and.

And we see this every week are also getting mark an improvement from the costs.

And that is the reason we're talking about that more in I think it's almost as though the two pronged as evened off because we were talking before about the retail was giving US you can see from these results that we're delivering and the outlook for the back half of the year.

That we're very bullish on our merchandise margin and Thats really because of both yes, just to echo what Ernie just said.

Given our call it whatever the better retailing strategy.

All of our improvement.

Versus our last guidance.

If I'm a margin merchandise margin perspective is all on the bi.

So our average retail is up whatever we had planned it to be up.

But it's all better buying in the across all of our divisions and it shortly.

Significant improvement in our Mark on.

Back half of the year so.

Yeah.

It's better buying.

Costs are going up but the retailers are going up but more more than the cost that right. Yes, that's the other way right and.

Part of that no. One asked part of why the inventory is up as you have a great.

In cost impact.

Alright.

In the overall inventory, but the costs are going up but the retailers are going up more than the.

It costs, but we had that baked into both original and last guidance John and the other thing John that goes hand in hand with this because that wouldn't that would all just be okay. If we thought all we were doing that but our sales, but we're hurting sales the opposite is happening because.

Proportionately our values on many of these things are even better value today than they were because retails have gone up even more than where we're going up and which is why I think it was in the <unk>.

First question or close to that where I was talking about our turns are actually faster than they were in FY 'twenty, which is an indication that.

Customers in the store that batteries are actually hitting them as stronger than than they have been for a few years. So so it's really nice to.

Really nice to see you need both right you can't just have the buy and then.

Retail move if youre not selling the goods at the right.

Because we are not seeing the fact that you are still providing and tie in many cases, we're providing because of what's happening around us more out the door value relative to the competition than ever before.

And with a slight modest with the moderation in freight.

Better buying.

The back half of the year, our merchandise margin, including all the freight pressure.

Is actually going to be up.

Right versus it was down in the first half of the year, it's kind of not to belabor the point, but it's really what we just experienced in Q2 and the way we're guiding yes.

With more conservative sales, but healthy profit Directionally is really it is a testament and a great example of textbook.

Utilization of this business model and you Couldnt do that if you didn't have the right teams and again, we have such great associates here that are executing of this whether from merchandise planning a marketing or.

And our distribution area logistics, it's all working in it.

This is just a great I think evidence of how we're able to flex and take advantage of the market.

Excellent thanks, guys.

Thank you John .

That was our last question. So thank you all for joining us today.

And we will be updating you again on our third quarter earnings call in November and we look forward to it. Thank you everybody.

Ladies and gentlemen that concludes your conference call for today you may all disconnect. Thank you for participating.

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If you have a question you will need to press star one.

This conference call is being recorded August 17 2022.

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Mr. Ernie Herrman, Chief Executive Officer, and President of the <unk> companies Inc. Please go ahead Sir.

Thanks, Sheila before we begin Deb has some opening comments.

You Ernie and good morning, the forward looking statements, we make today about the company's results and plans are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results and the implementation of the company's plans to vary materially easier.

These risks are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including without limitation. The Form 10-K filed March 13 2020.

These comments and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by the <unk> companies Inc.

Any recording retransmission reproduction or other use for profit or otherwise without prior consent as T. J is prohibited and a violation of United States copyright and other lot. Additionally, while we have approved the publishing of a transcript of this call by a third party.

We take no responsibility for inaccuracy that may appear in that transcript.

Detailed the impact of foreign exchange on our consolidated results and our international position in today's press release in the investors section of our website <unk> Dot com.

Conciliation of the non-GAAP measures discussed today to GAAP measures are posted on our website <unk> com in the investors section. Thank you and now I'll turn it back over to Ernie.

Good morning, joining.

Joining me and Deb on the call is Scott Goldenberg.

I'll start today by once again thanking each of our global associates for their hard work.

Truly appreciate their commitment to bringing our customers excellent value everyday.

Now to our results I am very pleased with our second quarter pre tax profit margin, which was above our plan and our earnings per share which were at the high end of our plan.

This is despite U S comp sales coming in lighter than we expected as.

As we believe historically high inflation impacted consumer discretionary spending.

We achieved a strong profitability through better than expected merchandise margin and.

Disciplined expense management.

I can't emphasize enough how this quarter is a testament to how great our business model is.

Our teams executed our off price fundamentals extremely well and our merchants did an excellent job buying the right merchandise and the right categories.

Across the company our talented associates all played a part in delivering great value to our customers every day and helped our company drive strong profitability in the quarter.

As we enter the second half of the year, we see the flexibility of our business and our value proposition as key advantages in the current retail landscape.

We attract a wide range of customers, which we believe is a key advantage in today's environment.

Long term, we remain very confident in our plans to capture market share and improve the profitability profile of T. J Maxx.

I'll talk more about our opportunities for the remainder of 2022 and beyond in a moment.

Before I continue I'll turn the call over to Scott to cover our second quarter financial results in more detail.

Thanks, Ernie and good morning, everyone I'd like to Echo <unk> comments and thank all of our global associates for their continued dedication to <unk>.

I'll start with some additional details on the second quarter.

<unk> quarter consolidated pre tax margin of nine 2% was above our plan. We are very pleased with our strong flow through despite our softer sales our pre tax margin outperformance was primarily driven by merchandise margin and effective expense management, which were both better than <unk>.

We planned pre.

Pretax margin was down 150 basis points versus last year's adjusted 10, 7% merchandise margin had a significant benefit from a combination of strong mark on and our pricing initiatives.

Was down due to 240 basis points of incremental freight pressure.

Incremental wage costs were 80 basis points second quarter U S comp door sales decreased 5% over an outsized 21% open only comp increase last year versus fiscal 'twenty, which when some together would be a 16% comp increase on a three year stack.

<unk> basis.

Moving on we are very pleased that our comp sales.

Our overall apparel business at <unk> were slightly positive every month of the quarter U S home comp sales were down low teens versus a 37% U S. Home opened only comp increase last year and were the primary driver of the U S softer.

The softer U S sales trends, we saw for the second quarter U S. Average basket was up driven by a higher average ticket and U S customer traffic was down lastly earnings per share of <unk> 69.

We're at the high end of our plan.

Okay.

Now to our divisional results at <unk> second quarter segment profit was 12, 9% comp store sales decreased 2% versus an 18% opened only comp increase last year again, it was great to see their overall apparel comped slightly positive.

While customer traffic was down and we saw an increase in <unk> average basket driven by a higher average ticket.

Average basket increased significantly driven by a higher average ticket and customer traffic decreased.

Quarter. This year on a constant currency basis, <unk>, Canada sales were up 28% in the second quarter.

<unk> International sales were up 6% in the second quarter.

As to e-commerce. It remains a very small percentage of our overall sales we continue to add new brands and categories to our sites. So shoppers can see something every something new every time they visit.

Levels.

Thanks Scott.

I'd like to start by sharing the key traffic sales and profitability opportunities, we see for the remainder of the year.

Starting with the topline.

First we are excited about our merchandising plans for the fall and holiday season.

Again this year, we will be flowing at collecting assortments to our stores and online multiple times a week. This is a strategy that has worked well for many years and sets us apart from other retailers during the busy holiday season as shoppers can can see something new every time they visit us.

We are confident that we can execute on our merchandising initiatives and manage our supply chain to keep our shelves fully stocked.

Second available availability of merchandise across good better and best brands is exceptional.

Have plenty of open to buy and I have great confidence that our buying team of more than 1200 buyers will bring the right brands fashion and values to our consumers throughout the years.

Next we are laser focused on driving traffic and sales with our marketing initiatives.

Each year, we have sharpened our messaging to reinforce our value leadership position.

Each of our banners are communicating that we offer shoppers more for their money and at the same time deliver great brands and quality.

And an environment, where consumer wallets are stretched we believe it is as important as ever to amplify our value messaging across TV digital and social media platforms.

I also want to highlight that our customer satisfaction scores remain very strong.

Further we continue to attract a significant number of millennial and Gen Z shoppers, which we believe bodes well for the future.

Moving to profitability.

We're extremely pleased that we are able to increase our full year pre tax margin guidance in this environment.

Giving us confidence are the merchandize margin opportunities we see.

The buying environment is very attractive and we believe we can continue to benefit from buying better.

Further our pricing initiative is working very well our teams have done an outstanding job.

<unk> This initiative over the past year, and we are very pleased that our value perception scores remain very strong.

Again, we are seeing extraordinary off price buying opportunities in the marketplace and have no issues with overall availability.

We are in a terrific inventory position and we have plenty of open to buy to take advantage of the current environment.

This allows us to offer even more exciting merchandise and value to our shoppers, which is our top priority every day.

Lastly, we remain focused on managing expenses and continue to look at ways to operate our business more efficiently.

Yeah.

Now I'd like to remind you of the characteristics of our business that we believe strongly position us to continue our successful growth around the world over the medium and long term.

First and foremost is the strong appeal of our great values outstanding merchandise and differentiated treasure Hunt shopping experience.

Further we believe the ability to touch and feel merchandise and take it home. The same day is very important to consumers.

Second we see an excellent opportunity to grow our global store base by at least another 1500 stores in our current geographies.

We are extremely confident that there will be more than enough real estate locations and merchandise available to support our store growth plans.

Yeah.

Again being one of the most flexible retailers in the world is a tremendous advantage.

The flexibility of our opportunistic buying supply chain and store formats enable us to change up our floor space to expand hot categories and trends that shoppers are looking for.

That's the profitability beyond this year, we remain committed to returning to our pre COVID-19 pre tax margin level of 10, 6% within three years.

We expect that across all of our divisions, our merchandize margin opportunities the moderation of expense headwinds, particularly freight and our focus on expense management will contribute to our improved profitability.

As always we believe driving outsized sales.

Our best opportunity to improve pre tax margin over the long term.

Turning to corporate responsibility I'd like to update you on our commitment to building a more inclusive and diverse workplace.

Last year, we completed our global associate inclusion and diversity survey.

This was an important step and we use the findings to help define three global inclusion and diversity priorities for the company.

Increase the representation of diverse associates throughout all levels of our talent pipeline.

Equip leaders with the tools to support the difference with awareness fairness sensitivity and transparency.

And empower our associates to integrate inclusive behaviors language and practices and how we work together and understand our role and responsibility and inclusion.

We have a number of initiatives underway to help support. These priorities. For example, we have introduced a new leadership competency and cultural factor focused on inclusion.

In addition associated resource groups similar to those we have in the U S have launched and are now active in both Canada and Europe .

Also teams throughout the organization have set up committees to better incorporate inclusion diversity into our everyday work.

And our communities, we continue to support a number of organizations that work with black communities and other communities of color.

In addition, we have deepened relationships with some nonprofit partners in the U S to expand our reach to diverse students for recruitment efforts.

We appreciate that this is a work in progress and we remain committed to a global priority and helping associates Bill welcome valued and engaged.

In closing I want to emphasize my confidence in the future of T. J X. We have a long track record of successfully operating two of many different types of economic and retail environments.

We believe value is as important as ever to consumers and delivering great value has been our mission for over 45 years.

We are very confident in the power of our off price buying and pricing initiatives, while maintaining our value gap with other retailers as always.

We continue to invest in our stores and shopping experience, which we believe positions us strongly and we remain committed to returning cash to shareholders.

Further we have a management team with decades of off price expertise at T. J Maxx, and a very deep bench of talent, who have successfully navigated through the unprecedented COVID-19 environment.

I am convinced that we are set up well to grow our top and bottom lines over the medium and long term and I'm confident in our plans to grow T. J X into an increasingly profitable $60 billion plus revenue company.

Now I'll turn the call back to Scott for some additional comments and then we'll open it up for questions Scott.

Thanks, again, Ernie I'll start with the full year, we now expect full year U S comp sales to be down 2% to 3% versus an outsized 17% U S opened only comp increase last year. This guidance now reflects the flow through of our second quarter U S comp sales.

And our expectations for the second half of the year, which assumes our three year stacked U S comp continues at levels similar to recent trends for the full year. We are now planning total <unk> sales in the range of 49, six to $49 9 billion the lower sales guidance.

This includes our lower than planned second quarter sales and our updated sales expectation for the second half of the year. Despite the.

The reduction in our sales plan, we are pleased to be raising our guidance for the full year adjusted pre tax margin to nine seven to nine 9%.

This is 10 basis points higher than our previous guidance due to our assumption for even stronger flow through for the back half of the year.

Our improved profitability outlook versus our prior guidance lines is due to stronger merchandise margin better expense management and less incremental freight and wage.

Wage pressure expected in the second half of the year for.

For modeling purposes, we are now assuming a 140 basis points of incremental freight expense and 70 basis points of incremental wage costs.

For full year adjusted earnings per share. We are now planning a range of three five to $3 13.

We remain committed to returning cash to our shareholders through our dividend and stock repurchase programs in fiscal 'twenty. Three we continue to expect to buyback $2 25 to $2 5 billion of T. J X stock.

Now to our third quarter guidance for the third quarter, we're planning pre tax margin in the range of $10. One to 10, 4%. This guidance assumes approximately 100 basis points of incremental freight expense and about 80 basis points of incremental wage costs in the third quarter, We're planning U S comp source.

Sales to be down 3% to 5% over an outsized, 16% U S open only comp store increase last year.

As a result of these assumptions were planning third quarter EPS was <unk> 77 to 81 per share.

Your questions and as we do every quarter, we're going to ask that you. Please limit your questions to one per person in one part to each question to keep the goal on schedule and so that we can answer questions from as many analysts as we can thanks and now we will open it up to questions.

Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session.

Ask a question. Please press star one on mute your phones and record your name clearly if you need to withdraw your question Press Star Q again to ask a question. Please press star one our first question will come from Lorraine Hutchinson. Your line is open.

Thank you good morning.

Can you just talk a little bit about your view of the U S consumer and how that changed over the course of the quarter are you seeing any pushback to the price increases you've taken and are you seeing that trade down customer shop your store a little bit more thank you.

Thanks, Lorraine first of all our U S customer trend in the quarter.

It's moved around a bit I think.

What happened in this quarter is when a little bit of that.

Fuel Spike if you remember back in the middle of the quarter. That's when we had a big ramp up on that in addition to really food. Those are the two inflationary categories that really we feel can impact our consumer the most.

But the fuel has obviously come down more recently so.

Zero, we not only do we do qualitative.

Studies on it we are actually able to measure down to the SKU level.

<unk>, how we're selling an item with where the retail has been adjusted but even entire categories departments and the store in fact.

We're measuring our turns and all of these things relative to pre COVID-19.

Gold.

Fiscal 'twenty.

COVID-19, and in most cases, we are actually turning our inventory faster than then and that as you know was a very very good year for us and a real.

Actually model of business that we're very happy with from an inventory turn and sales perspective, So we have.

Zero concern overall, we've had a couple of items here that we have found and we react quickly if it hasnt worked but I would say we are in the our batting record is in the probably 95% zone. So great question by the way because of course, we monitor that every week.

So that has been a non issue again, we felt lorena was prudent to.

When we went to this more conservative sales for the back half I would tell you we did that and knowing that we want to be conservative it's been a little ball, it's moved around a bit we tend to look at the three year stacks, how do our sales compared to FY 'twenty and that's kind of where we.

Looked at the recent trend at the end of the second quarter and Thats, where we just kind of applied that going forward. Our intention is always as you know two to beat that the management team and every division is on.

In a mode to be at that I have to tell you that I think and it's too far out for us.

To change the numbers right now, but when we have Q4 is where we feel like theres a lot of opportunity for us.

And I would say if you look at that you're aware of this we kind of ran out of some steam there in some categories and businesses last year and I am sure I will get into a more on other questions during the call, but we have a <unk>.

Feel like a great opportunity.

To driving some more incremental sales in Q4, specifically thanks for the question.

Thank you.

Our next question will come from Matthew Boss Your line is open.

Thank you highlighted do you see this translating now to an optimal fall and holiday assortment across apparel and home and maybe just last could you elaborate on the excitement you cited in the release for some of the back half initiatives to drive traffic.

Sure No great question, Matt and it does piggyback on what we started to talk about with Lorraine.

Wow.

And strengths I would tell you there are no the only constraint that would apply in this discussion is the constraints and us having a whole back all the merchants from buying too much too soon.

So we have this is self inflicted constraints, we're putting on because the teams right now and I know.

My senior team right now one of the prime responsibilities has been too.

This really gets at the meat of what's been going on has been to get at holding the merchants back on buying too much too soon as you know we mentioned in the release and I think even ahead of this many of you were aware of the amount of.

Goods in the market I hesitate to use the word unprecedented but it is at a different level I would say that we've seen and it's across our good better and best zones.

And so I'm going to give you. An example that speaks to a place where we've been challenged but I would tell you gives us.

A level of optimism as you would say getting to that optimal mix and an excitement level for the back half. So we've been struggling in.

Our column area has other retailers has and you can see what the Homegoods sales. However, they have done as has mom acts specifically both have gone in and kept their inventory is very clean and taken aggressive markdowns to ensure that we go into the back half with no liabilities and mix.

So we can deliver as much fresh excitement.

Based on what's working and changed the hotter trends and vendors. So homegoods, specifically again, where we've been a little soft around the on the three year stack than we would've liked.

Is in a terrific inventory position now they put in a lot of work to get there.

But what they've done is created significant open to buy to the point of and normally we don't give.

Numbers like I'm about to give you, but I would tell you at this point in time that we are going to buy 4 million units and home goods over the next few weeks all to be what we call later planned and shipped into September for selling in September and because of the market situation with the availability there we're able.

To go after the categories that are happening the healthy ones on home and buy them even better.

So we've been buying goods really better than ever and Homegoods recently and I think it is.

Going to help us drive sales because we are going to be so fresh we're going to taking some of the best goods, we're going to be able to pick and choose.

Out of the market because theres, so much availability and Thats again 4 million units that will be bought in the next couple of weeks and shipped to the stores and to sell by ship and sell.

And the next month.

September so <unk> larger scale, great inventory position.

I think what's happening in the brands and this is Mike.

Preempt some of the other questions, but could the excitement from fourth quarter to get to the optimal mix when we get the fourth quarter.

Last year in some of our hottest categories I actually get an update on key vendor buys every week and the last two weeks have yielded some vendors. It's a meaningful quantities that I know we did not have last year. So it is all tough to measure and put into the.

Sales forecast right now it just it just gets me excited that I think we have some upside there so sorry for the long winded answer, but youre touching on some of the most exciting part of of the model and the part of the secret sauce that really I think is is going to set us apart from everyone else. So.

Thanks.

Great color. Thanks Ernie.

All of them.

Our next question will come from Kimberly Greenberger Your line is open.

Oh, great. Thanks, so much for taking the question.

Ernie and Scott you guys have been talking about getting back to this to the 10% plus pre tax margin in the back half.

I mean in a year when so many retailers are struggling with margin visibility you guys look to be sort of solidly on track.

Hit those targets.

I wanted to know if you can sort of step back and talk about.

On margin not specific targets necessarily for 2023 or 2024.

But just what are the puts and takes as we head into next year and the following what are the puts and takes on margin.

Do you see opportunity.

<unk>.

Claw back even more of the margin here over the next couple of years.

Sure.

We saw under some pressure through Covid.

Yes, Kimberly I'll, let Scott jump in on some of the big pieces of this but what I would like to highlight one thing I mentioned.

In the script as well first of all.

Thrilled with we and we called this out back at really at the beginning of the year that we thought we could approach getting.

Approach at 10% and we're getting there we're talking I think at 97 to 99 this year, but even over the three year Scott I think we will talk to this.

We're feeling good about getting back to that pre Covid 10, 6%.

T J X, which is right I think what you're getting at and he's going to give you. Some of the some of the puts and takes but let me give you another piece on that.

But I think is really.

One thing is a moderation obviously of.

Some of the other expenses around us freight for example.

We realized where wages coming thats been something we haven't talked.

On this call about but we kind of have a good feel for where that's going.

The Big game changer right now in this environment.

In addition to what Scott's going to talk about is our merchandise margin.

Not that I'm, leaving him a lot to talk about.

Is the <unk>.

Merchandise margin.

The opportunities we see really from two things we've been talking more in the last two calls about retailing.

Right retailing.

Selectively better and the way, we are changing retail, but the buying better as one of the things.

Right now, we're seeing as we're able to really because of the availability out there.

Lower our costs on unlike.

And the market and again the market right now across all the different categories and vendors is really yielding.

Some amazing opportunity and this will not be short term based on what's happening in the industry as far as.

Store closures and market shift in online Pat online shipping patterns.

Where we think we get market share, but we get margin opportunity on that.

Scott I don't know if you.

Yeah.

I needed to put some my mouth got a little dry last few minutes.

A few things.

The first I'd say that we're starting as Ernie said I mean, when we started the year, we thought we're going to be similar to last year in that 95% 96 range. So the fact that we have dropped.

Effectively ex FX and almost $2 billion in sales.

Our original guidance and our margins are going up I think just speaks as Ernie I think said several different times to the model and our ability to.

In a sluggish environment, we've never said, we're immune from sales we've been able to take advantage of those other aspects of the business Im good gross margin and the.

And expense management that we do when we flex down.

Again, Ernie I think touched on it but.

We've managed our markdowns quite well, maybe a little more due to some of the home sales, but our markdowns have.

Have been.

Slightly higher but in line.

<unk>.

With what we would've expected.

And our as we move through the freight starts to moderate a lot of this.

Has to do with the freight we did say if the environment was such that the freight would moderate.

We would we would be able to improve our margins that certainly is what happening in the back half and we still would expect our freight rates to be to be to be better next year. Some of that has to do a lot with them.

What our teams are doing the logistics folks and others in terms of a lot of the mitigation strategies getting longer term contract rates more using.

Much more contract rig contract rates on the spot market than the spot market for ocean freight.

We are taking advantage of where we're moving our goods onto what ports and I think a lot and a lot of other strategies and we think some of the demurrage costs and other things, where we believe we are going to be going down next year. So some of that is reflected in our back half and some of that we think will continue into next year by starting at a higher base next year I mean.

We would hope that.

We're in a sluggish environment.

Worldwide up from an economic point of view homes.

Obviously, although we've changed the mix the apparel is up 5% more than what it used to be it's still more than what it was in the home than compared to what it was in 'twenty.

And I think we're maintaining these margins we go into next year and get back to the level of comps, we would see pre COVID-19 I think that with a <unk>.

Some slight increases in retail I'm, adding that to the level. We would see this year, we should be able to as we've spoken of over the last several quarters increase our profitability assuming as Ernie said there is no major changes.

Two the headwinds so also this hasnt been a.

Other retailers have talked to it.

Flow of both the merchandize into our distribution centers worldwide.

Buying so we're buying.

Closer to need so I think again, its all setting us up well for us.

Our continued improvement on a.

A more normalized sales increase.

Great very clear thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Paul Lajoie. Your line is open.

Hey, Thanks, guys curious if you can talk a little bit about what you saw.

Throughout the quarter on a monthly basis, maybe changes in traffic patterns and any detail you might be able to provide by by concept and hernia, usually you say something about the quarter to date period. So curious if youre seeing comp trends in line with that third quarter comp guidance.

Earlier, I think you made a comment about maybe there being a lag effect.

On the gas price reduction does that mean that you have not seen any sort of a pickup as gas prices have come down.

You could say on <unk> quarter to date.

Yes, I'll, let Scott jump in but I'll talk about the quarter to date basically that the guidance. We gave is based on how we're trending so.

Thats.

We're right in line with with what we just gave for guidance.

To your point could.

Hoping we get a little benefit as that fuel factor wears off a little and.

The other dynamic that we're not sure of that was in the quarter. We havent talked about it is we had some weather noise I guess, a little during the quarter, where the weather was.

For apparel was a little.

And it was just extremely hot in certain areas of the country. So I don't know if that hit us by a little so this is where we say we wanted to be prudent on our go forward.

Comp estimates and stay conservative.

My goal and the team's goal is to.

Is to beat those and I think I think we just think we have upside if you look at some of those other issues as well as.

We.

Going into this quarter, so far I would tell you our LOE was a little less than probably we would have liked.

That is.

And that is getting into the stores as we speak.

And I think that could give us a little bump up at the end of August going into September .

So hopefully that gives a little a little color there.

Yes, yes, it does.

To add what Ernie said I think we've been.

We've done the sales I'll call it forecasting or what we put in our guidance.

<unk> the same way at the end of <unk>.

When we started the year to the first quarter to now and that we've taken whether whatever we think the appropriate period, but it's generally been four to six weeks of the most recent trend and use that for the rest of the year.

Regardless of trying to.

As Randy said, we think we might be able to do better in the fourth quarter, but we've just held that trend because thats. What we are seeing because last year was such a volatile year on the upside where those comps as we have said many times.

Sure.

21% in the second quarter, 16% in the third quarter moderating in the fourth quarter of last year, but still.

Higher than typical year so.

We just felt that was a more prudent way from a sales perspective within within the sales.

And then the adjustment it's more home goods adjustment then more IMAX adjustment as our home sales have.

Home goods sales dropped a bit more than the <unk> sales from the prior trend and Thats reflected in our go forward trends.

Other than that addressing maybe the first question that was asked on the call.

We're good.

Ernie alluded to whether it's inflation or gas prices in the first quarter for the first time in 567 years, we saw that are lower.

Our stores are in lower income areas were dropped below the higher income areas that is still true through.

Through the second quarter, although the change from the first quarter to the second.

Does equal.

The equal but the.

The higher demographic stores are still doing better than the lower and again thats pretty.

Pretty much of a big change versus the last five to seven year trend everything I think it just seem to at least for our spend stay similar type of impact across the different demographic levels.

And again not much change also from a geographic perspective within the United States as well pretty pretty equal the change from the first quarter to the second.

Yeah. Thanks, Thanks for the color Scott what drove that slow a slow.

Relative to what you would have liked.

Quarter there.

And so what we do is we look at the way sales are trending.

And so when we were having that little bumps down in July .

<unk>.

We slowed the shipping a little bit and that's what we do it's a big ship and so we probably ended up with a little bit less shipping.

Than we would've liked however, we reacted a week or two later and we know it will be in good shape at the end here, we have an advantage.

Yes.

Paul in the way, we stage goods in our warehouse right because we've always talked about it we can use it to manage so if we see.

This happens quite a bit by the way if we see sales slowing we're able to slow our shipping out of our Dcs, but sometimes you get caught off guard and this was one of those where we shipped to the sales, but then the sales started nudging up a little and we realized we probably could have shipped a little bit more and so it's just that's our own execution.

Yes, I would tell you there was nothing of impact of that other than us.

But the teams are great and they reacted quickly and so we ended up with is a couple of a couple of weeks, a blip, where we're probably given up a little business.

But then we'll be back on track really in about two weeks from now so yes. Good question.

That is part of that if it was if it was easier anyone would do it right but.

Yes.

It's a big ship when you have that many stores and given it seems a lot of credit because they caught it.

Quickly and by the way I'm, giving you the time that we don't talk about the times when.

When.

Nine out of 10 times, if we slow the shipping or increase the shipping based on the trend that happens to be the right amount.

Which isn't always easy this just happened to be one of the times, we're a little on the wrong side of it.

Got it thanks, a lot good luck.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jay.

Your line is open.

Great. Thank you so much.

Just curious about what's baked into the guidance in terms of what you see from competition from your from the other off price retailers meeting, whether it's Nordstrom rack or Burlington and Ross.

Given that obviously inventory available it seems really strong for your company, but maybe it's not so great out there for everybody at large do you expect them to get more competitive and what impact do you think that would have on the business. Thank you.

Yes, Jay.

So.

We're pretty simple with the teams here again, our buyers are excellent and our planning and allocation team and we.

The good news is we kind of keep them focused on I'd tell them not to worry too much about what the competitors are doing because.

Let's face it we're in a bit of a fortunate position this isn't anything we're doing.

We're so big and we have a lot of strong relationships with certain some of the strongest relationships with certain vendors.

Some of the vendors don't overlap as much.

With those competitors youre talking about and some do.

From what we've seen and what we hear there is plenty of goods honestly to go to everybody in the off price World right now and.

They've typically is by the way, but right now we don't foresee that as being.

Any issue I don't I don't know, how they that's up to them as far as how they're running their their open to buys and what theyre doing is as far as.

How far they want to buy out or whatever we right now if anything our strategy on the buying of goods is to get more liquid and it has been for the last month.

And two by less further out than we typically have because of that we're not worried about other competitors buying the goods, we think theres going to be more goods.

And unusual amount more goods across all of the branded areas, which by the way going back to what I mentioned before I think for Q4.

Gift, giving I think we're going to have some of the best branded content. We've had in a while again regardless of what competitors are doing in terms of how much they are buying or not.

But good.

Now let me say good question, we do talk about our merchants talk about in a category with a vendor.

Based on this amount of goods that we think that could go to one of the other competitors is this important for us to have or whether they weigh all of that out when theyre, making buys and.

That's why we give them all the credit on handling at all.

Really really well in this environment, we I have to say, we like an environment like this where there's a lot of strangely enough a lot of volatility around.

The model is so flexible and it will allow us to chase the hunter category trends more nimbly than most retailers.

But thanks for your question.

Got it thank you so much.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Brooke Roach. Your line is open.

Good morning, and thank you so much for taking our question.

You've made some comments about the strong buying environment and the opportunity that that that are buying can drive some of the margin improvement.

And underpinning that improvement at 10, 6% pretax margins can you discuss your view on the longevity of this benefit and perhaps the opportunity for this buying environment to persist even when we've heard about some order cuts into the second half of this year and also.

A more promotional retail environment overall, thank you.

Sure Brooke.

These are just these topics are things we talk about internally quite frequently first of all we think we have multiple years of longevity to this strategy.

From what we're seeing there is even probably more opportunity in the retailing or the buying of goods as we can as well as by the way not just merchant driven some of the cost that Scott mentioned.

Could be a couple a few year trend because they somewhat some of those freight costs went up so dramatically so fast.

It could be kind of a bit of a slow correction that we don't think it's going to happen fast so between buying goods retailing the way we're retailing.

The fact that we mean more to the market.

Than ever before.

Again, we look at the promotional environment is less promotional and a lot of these costs are baked in even going forward I foresee the promotional environment.

Not getting any worse for a.

A few years I think we're good for a couple of years there and.

As I said back in the script our mission still is our out the door retail that we provide to the consumer has that maintain that gap.

Between the out the door retailer that they have and what we sell it for our out the door retail, which is always our ticketed price.

I do if you if you are onto a whole we could spend a whole a phone call on this but if you look at the promotions happen Theres still a you know a lot of retailers that are still dealing with a very high low game of sale all the time and its I always look at that where consumers today are looking for.

Anticipate.

They're looking for an exciting treasure hunt and entertaining shopping experience in stores.

We're going back to our remodeling program aggressively we have a new prototype in our Marshalls business, specifically that we're excited about.

That we're starting to rollout because we want our.

We believe there is a market share gain not just on.

Number one by our merchandise values, yes, but number two by the shopping experience.

So that is a long that's a long term play as well just so you know.

But I know you were talking about about the buying and the retailing no reason to think this won't go on for a number of years.

And it is good question Brooks.

Thank you. Our next question comes from Omar Saad Your line is open.

Thank you and good morning, Ernie I was hoping maybe you could elaborate a little bit the comment you made earlier about the availability of brands and the excitement we have around especially where the fourth quarter around brands.

Designer brands, just kind of across categories is more specific to apparel or or some of the fashion areas.

So maybe also talk about for T. J Maxx, obviously GTS companies, obviously known for its flexibility at scale, maybe talk about broadly your ability to reassert away from home categories, if theyre going to be soft for a while as you.

Deal with <unk>.

Consumers deal with inflation and you cycle those big gains from last year and towards some of those more reopening type categories through the organization as a whole have the ability to kind of shifted some merchandising assortment.

Yes no.

Two two.

<unk>.

Two big things that where we're approaching I'll.

I'll start with the Rio.

We are short from home, we've been doing that consistently.

In <unk> and in the international divisions and in total T. J X, where we have moved funding out of home goods and into more Max and within Europe and in Canada. We do the same thing where we are.

We take open to buy.

Retailers that are more bought in advance how they run into really a profit hit because there. They are stuck with a liability we are not to.

To that degree we took our markdowns as I said earlier, and we were able to move more over.

On your first part Ahmar, which is interesting.

The brands are across.

Not just this is actually not just designer.

And not just the apparel so we're getting we're getting some up.

Brands I can't give you what they are but this is applies to accessories hard lines. If you if you walk in our store even in some of the.

Some of the hard lines, either the good into OLED, where home is or in.

And our.

Q line area Youre going to see some new vendors there.

But youre also going to see that we've gone after some of those categories more aggressively than before because we're getting new vendors at different levels of goods. So when we talk about.

Good better best sometimes it can be assumed I'm talking about on the best and is designed for apparel and it isn't always that way its actually I guess you would call it.

Better or design, our hard lines of merchandise that we have which by the way is is we as we go to Chris Smith on gift, giving which I think you mentioned some of those hotline better vendors, which are special our great gifts and it's not just the apparel because as you know you probably personally our friends.

Today, we don't.

Consumers don't just give a parallel guests it's also.

Other hard line gifts somewhat some of it in the tech area, we have that tech area out there in the queue line and Thats often given those are great gifts, especially when we're able to buy some better brands on that and so that's all of the type that we're really excited about and I think is going to help us with that Q4 opportunity.

Thanks, Tony Great color good luck for three.

Walmart.

Thank you.

Final question of the day comes from John Kernan. Your line is open.

Alright, Thanks for squeezing me in and congrats on a nice quarter.

Certainly not a believer the point, but just can you talk to the mark on opportunity you've talked about in prior calls it seems like youre getting more conviction in.

And the opportunity and the deals you are getting from vendors and then maybe just elaborate on what this means for merch margin and gross margin as we go forward.

Sure John well.

With that whole strategy again, thats, where a byproduct.

By product of the fact that all the retailers around us for the most part have had to raise retails on certain categories or so.

As you know have done it more on a widespread raising of retail across the board. We didn't do that we did it very selective and surgically, but what's happened is.

For different reasons in this environment our teams.

And we see this every week are also getting mark an improvement from the costs.

That we're very bullish on our merchandise margin and it's really because of both yes, just to echo what Ernie just said.

Given our I'll call it whatever the better retailing strategy.

All of our improvement.

Versus our last guidance not at least if I'm a margin merchandise margin perspective is all on the bi.

So our average retail is up whatever we had planned it to be up.

But it's all about our buying in the across all of our divisions and it's shortly.

Significant improvement in our Mark on.

Back half of the year so.

Yeah.

It's better buying.

Costs are going up but the retailers are going up but more more than the cost that right. Yes, that's the other way right and.

Part of that no. One asked part of why the inventory is up as you have a great.

Cost impact.

That's buried in the.

In the overall inventory, but the costs are going up but the retailers are going up more than the.

The cost, but we have that baked into both original and last guidance John and the other thing John that goes hand in hand with us because that wouldn't that would all just be okay. If we thought all we were doing that but our sales, but we're hurting sales the opposite is happening because.

Proportionately our values on many of these things are even better value today than they were because retails have gone up even more than what were going up.

And which is why I think it was in the.

First question are close to that where I was talking about our turns are actually faster than they were in FY 'twenty, which is an indication that.

When the customers in the store that batteries are actually heading.

<unk> as <unk>.

Stronger than.

Then they have been.

A few years, so so it's really nice to.

Really nice to see you need both right you can't just have up by then.

Retail move if youre not selling the goods at the right.

We are not seeing the fact that you are still providing anti in many cases, we're providing because of what's happening around us more out the door value relative to the competition than ever before.

And with a slight modest with the moderation in freight and with <unk>.

Better buying.

The back half of the year, our merchandise margin, including all the freight pressure is actually going to be up.

Right versus it was down in the first half of the year, it's kind of not to belabor the point, but it's really what we just experienced in Q2 and the way we're guiding yes.

With more conservative sales, but healthy profit Directionally is really it is a testament and a great example of textbook.

Utilization of this business model and <unk>.

Wouldn't do that if you didn't have the right teams and again, we have such great associates here that are executing in this whether from merchandising planning a marketing or in our distribution.

The abuse in the area of logistics, it's all working.

This is just a great I think evidence of how we're able to flex and take advantage of the market.

Excellent thanks, guys.

Thank you John .

That was our last question. So thank you all for joining us today, and we will be updating you again on our third quarter earnings call in November and we look forward to it. Thank you everybody.

Ladies and gentlemen that concludes your conference call for today you may all disconnect. Thank you for participating.

Q2 2023 TJX Companies Inc Earnings Call

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