Q4 2022 Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc Earnings Call

October 24, 2022

The conference will begin shortly to raise your hand during Q1.

Good day and welcome to the Schnitzer Steel's Conference call.

Fourth quarter 2022 earnings release call and webcast at this time all participants are in a listen only mode.

After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session.

To ask a question during the session you will need to press star one one on your telephone you will.

Then youre an automated message advising that your hand is right.

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded I would now like to hand, the conference over to your Speaker, Mr. Michael Bennett Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you Sherry and good morning, I am Michael Bennett, the company's Vice President of Investor Relations.

I'm happy to welcome you to Schnitzer Steel's earnings presentation for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022.

In addition to today's audio comments, we have issued our press release and posted a set of slides both of which you can access on our website at <unk> Dot com.

Before we start let me call your attention to the detailed safe Harbor statement on slide two which is also included in our press release and in the company's Form 10-K, which will be filed later today.

As we note on slide two we may make forward looking statements on our call today, such as our statements about our targets volume growth and margins.

Our actual results may differ materially from those projected in our forward looking statements additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward looking statement is contained in slide two as well as our press release of today and our Form 10-K.

Please note that we will be discussing some non-GAAP measures during our presentation. Today. We've included a reconciliation of those metrics to GAAP in the appendix to our slide presentation.

Now, let me turn the call over to Tamara Lundgren, our chairman and Chief Executive Officer, She will host the call today with <unk>, our Chief Financial Officer.

Thank you Michael.

Everyone and welcome to our fiscal 'twenty two for the quarter earnings call. We appreciate your interest in our company and we look forward to sharing our results with you. This morning.

Our fiscal 'twenty two results represent the second best in our company's 116 year history.

They would not have been possible without all of our employees living our core values of safety sustainability and integrity and operating with agility and resilience on today's call you'll hear about how our company is navigating the current market environment, where macroeconomic factors are challenging and how we are.

Physician for what we believe is a very bright future for recycled metals.

Before we begin I'd lie.

Like to take a moment to formally welcome Stefano to the CFO earnings call seat today.

As we previously announced Stefano was promoted to the CFO role on September one.

After serving as our deputy CFO and Chief Accounting Officer for the last four years welcome Stefano and congratulations.

I also want to take a moment to thank our former CFO Richard Peach for his excellent leadership of the finance organization.

As many of you are aware for the last several years Richard had been responsible for both the finance and strategy functions.

In light of the importance of our strategic growth initiatives, we asked Richard to dedicated his time to leading our strategy organization as Chief strategy Officer, Richard We look forward to your continued success in this role and to your joining us from time to time on this call.

Today on our call I'll review, our full year and Q4 financial results the trends affecting our business and progress on our strategic activities and stuff.

Stefano will then provide more detail on our financial performance, our capital structure and our capital investments I'll wrap up and then we'll take your questions.

So, let's turn now to slide four to get started.

We expect to publish our ninth annual sustainability report in the coming weeks in advance of its publication I'd like to highlight a few examples of the significant progress. We made this year against our sustainability goals, which are centered on our framework of people planet and profit.

On people.

For fiscal 'twenty, two like our financial results our team delivered the second best safety performance in our company's history with 90% of our facilities free of any lost time injuries.

We've made excellent progress in identifying and addressing potential hazards before they become injuries. While we still have work to do to keep achieving year over year improvement in our safety performance our team's commitment to safety continues to be reflected in these results.

In addition, I'd like to highlight that in fiscal 'twenty. Two we were certified for the second consecutive year as a great place to work and the Ethisphere Institute named US one of the 2022 world's most ethical companies for the eighth consecutive year.

We believe employee engagement and initiatives focused on diversity equity inclusion community service and job satisfaction contribute significantly to our operational performance the achievement of our strategic goals and the growth and development of our employees.

Moving to our planet goals.

We're also well on our way to achieving our commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at our recycling operations by 25% by fiscal 'twenty five against our 2019 baseline.

And maintaining 100% net carbon free electricity use across our company for the second consecutive year.

We're meeting these goals primarily through significant investments in state of the art emissions control systems for our metal shredding operations.

And more efficient operating equipment.

And earlier this year, we introduced Green steel our line of net zero carbon emissions steel products from our Cascade Steel mill.

The launch of our Greensville product line provides our customers with net zero steel solutions as they build tomorrow's essential infrastructure.

Now, let's turn to slide five.

I am very proud of the results our team achieved in fiscal 'twenty two.

Our adjusted EBITDA of over $300 million was 8% higher than in fiscal 'twenty one our.

Our year over year ferrous sales volumes were 5% higher and our nonferrous sales volumes were 16% higher.

Our full year operating cash flow of almost $240 million reflects the continued profitability of our business as well as strong working capital management.

It's our highest annual operating cash flow since fiscal 12.

Our fiscal 'twenty two performance was also well above our three and five year average trends.

Underpinned by higher sales volumes progress on our strategic initiatives productivity improvements and the benefits from the rollout of our one schnitzer organizational structure.

During fiscal 'twenty, two we invested in capital projects to upgrade our equipment and infrastructure.

And for investments in environmental and safety related assets and.

In advanced metal recovery technologies systems.

We returned capital to our shareholders through our quarterly dividend and we repurchased 3.5% of our outstanding shares.

Our fiscal 'twenty two adjusted R. O C E was over 16% significantly higher than our cost of capital.

Let's turn now to slide six to review our Q4 results.

Earlier this morning, we announced our fiscal 'twenty two fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of 50 cents.

Our fourth quarter results were adversely impacted by a significant decline in ferrous and nonferrous sales prices and demand tighter.

Tighter supply flows, resulting from the drop in prices and the weaker economic environment.

And disruptions due to the extended outage at our Everett, Massachusetts, shredding operations to replace damaged equipment.

We generated strong operating cash flow reduced our debt repurchased almost 2% of our outstanding shares and paid 114th consecutive quarterly dividend.

Let's turn to slide five sorry, let's turn to slide seven to review price trends and supply flows.

The ferrous and nonferrous price changes during the quarter were significant.

And recessionary fears and economic growth concerns remain at the forefront of global markets.

Metal price declines have been heavily influenced by macro concerns globally, including slower growth the impact of China's COVID-19 lockdowns inflationary pressures.

<unk> the U S dollar the war in Ukraine, and steel inventory Destocking.

Ferrous export prices declined rapidly and steeply at the beginning of the quarter by over $250 per ton from the peak in Q3.

And were quite volatile during July and August since the end of the quarter reported prices had been more stable higher than the five year average and trading in the range of 375 to $400 per tonne delivered depending on the region.

High energy cost in Turkey, and slow demand in Europe have been offset in part by demand in South Asia, where energy problems are not as severe.

In the U S domestic market ferrous prices have fallen for six consecutive months, although absolute prices remain higher than the 10 year average.

Prime grades experienced the largest decreases due to an overhang at many mills.

<unk> is now trading below shredded for the first time since 2016 impacted by lower manufacturing activity and lower steel demand.

The average U S steel mill utilization rate has been below 80% for 15 consecutive weeks.

Turning to nonferrous as you can see in the upper right chart on this slide base metal index prices for copper and aluminum have dropped 33% and 45% respectively from their peaks in Q3.

Since the end of the quarter prices have stabilized at these levels due to concerns about availability at these lower prices.

These concerns are valid as the significant drops in ferrous and nonferrous prices have led to considerably tighter supply flows across all regions and channels.

Exacerbated by inflationary pressures, which have increased collection costs and reduced consumer scrap generation.

Turning to finished steel metal spreads reached record highs as falling scrap prices outpaced the decline in finished steel prices, while the construction markets are softening a bit due to interest rates and inflationary pressures on construction costs.

The architectural billings index and the Dodge momentum index are both signaling strong growth in the non res commercial and industrial sectors.

In addition increased demand related to the U S infrastructure Bill inflation reduction Act and the block buy clean directive is expected to materialize in 2020, three and beyond with the higher focus on low carbon steel or steel mill is very well positioned to meet this increased longer term demand.

Near term conditions, however appear weaker than what we've experienced for the last two years at Schnitzer, we focus on the things we can control and we have a long history of successfully navigating through challenging times.

As we look at the first quarter, we expect a softer environment than we saw in Q4.

Prices fell in both September and October along with steel mill utilization.

The outage at our Everett facility, which impacted our supply flows. During Q4 has continued into Q1, while we expect to be able to restart the shredder very shortly our first quarter results will be adversely impacted by this extended shutdown in.

In addition changes in regulatory requirements impacting our shredder facility in Oakland resulted in certain operational limitations for disposal of our auto shred residue. These issues have recently been resolved however, the resulting costs and adverse impacts on volumes will also be reflected in our Q1 results.

Looking beyond the current macro uncertainty and the Q1 disruptions.

We expect the positive structural trends of increased demand for ferrous and nonferrous recycled metals to remain firmly intact.

Low carbon economy, and many low carbon technologies are widely acknowledged to be more metal intensive the use of recycled metals is now an important strategic solution for companies industries and governments that are focused on carbon reduction.

And it is a critical part of every community's commitment to supporting a circular economy.

So, let's turn to slide eight to discuss these longer term demand trends in more detail.

De carbonization is a powerful structural demand driver of demand for recycled metals, Inc.

Increasing the use of recycled metals and low carbon technologies and infrastructure investments as a great example of how old economy tools will lead the way to decarbonization of the new economy. We can see how some of these trends have translated into higher ferrous scrap metal usage in the U S and globally by looking at the charts on the slot.

Good.

Yeah, Yeah, steelmaking capacity, which uses scrap as its primary raw material has been expanding in the U S and globally and is projected to increase even further and scrap usage in China is still making is expected to increase by up to 50% driven by a F replacement capacity as well as by the increase.

Use of scrap in their B O S.

Let's turn now to slide nine to review the strategic actions, we have underway aligned with these long cycle trends.

We are focused on four strategic priorities first technology investments in advanced metal recovery systems at our major recycling operations.

To enable us to extract more nonferrous metals from our shredding activities.

Lower operating costs and improve our margins.

Expand our product offerings and customer base and reduce materials going to landfills.

Second volume growth.

Our multi year focus on increasing our ferrous and nonferrous volumes has led to an annual.

6% volume growth rate since fiscal 2016, we've achieved this through a combination of organic growth acquisitions and improved recovery of nonferrous materials through our shredding process.

Third expansion of our products and services to meet the evolving demand for recycled metals such as the launch of our net zero Green steel products and the reverse logistics services, we provide to manufacturers and retailers and fourth.

Productivity initiatives that we undertake as part of our continuous improvement culture, where our focus is on efficiencies and processing procurement and pricing in.

In the face of significant inflationary pressure, we're targeting new productivity initiatives or $40 million in physical twenty-three nearly double the annual benefits we have achieved in each of the preceding two years.

So now let me turn it over to Stefano for a more detailed review of our financial and operating performance Stefano.

Thank you Tamara and good morning all.

I'll start with a review of our consolidated results and provide an update on our ferrous sales and the market dynamics.

For the full year fiscal 'twenty, two our adjusted EBITDA was $313 million.

Adjusted EBITDA per ferrous ton increase year over year and reached 68 builders.

Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $40 million or $32 per ferrous ton.

While our metal margin benefited from for water sales made up a higher prices early in the fourth or the majority of the sequential decline in quarterly results was attributable to the sharp drop in ferrous and nonferrous selling prices, which led to a compression in metal spread.

The sharpness of the price decline older generic at a significant adverse impact from average inventory costing method of approximately $23 for parents done which compares to a benefit of $4 per ton has done in the third quarter. However.

However, the contribution from our steel mill operations were strong during the fourth quarter supported by near record finished steel prices.

Our SG&A expense decreased $8 million sequentially, primarily as a result of lower incentive compensation accruals, which together we'd benefit from productivity initiatives helped partially offset the impact of environmental compliance and inflation on our operating costs, primarily for labor and energy.

Logistics and waste disposal.

In addition, we had a detrimental impact from the extended shredding operation out the gene Everett to replace damaged equipment net of recognition of insurance recoveries of $6 million.

Average net selling prices went down by 28% sequentially and by 14% year over year.

Our ferrous sales volumes were up sequentially by 12%, primarily reflecting four bulk cargoes delayed at the end of the third quarter.

Fourth quarter sales volumes also include contributions that came from the first full quarter of ownership of Hong Kong recycling.

Refresh, reflecting the increased size of our domestic business, we shipped 38% of our ferrous volumes to the U S market up from 27% in the prior to get a quarter.

Our largest sales destination for ferrous export in the quarter, where Bangladesh, Turkey and India.

Now, let's move to slide 11 for an update on nonferrous sales and the market dynamics.

We sold our nonferrous products to 17 countries.

Major export destinations being India, Malaysia and China.

The share of domestic sales of nonferrous increased 45% in the fourth quarter compared to 38% in the prior year, reflecting more attractive economics, better logistics and the contribution of our acquisitions.

Our product mix was highly diversified with sales of zorba, representing 30% of our nonferrous volumes aluminum, 27% copper, 14% reached 10% and stainless Zurich and other nonferrous metals, making up the balance.

As Dominic mentioned, while market selling prices decrease in the range of 30% to 45% from their highs.

Average net selling prices for nonferrous declined only 7% sequentially as we benefited from forward sales made a higher prices prior to the steep decline in nonferrous market.

Nonferrous sales volumes declined sequentially by 8%, primarily due to tighter flows resulting from the drop in prices.

Every year nonferrous volumes were up 13%, including the contributions from both Columbus recycling and uncle recycling.

Now, let's move to slide 12 to provide an update on our advanced metal recovery technologies investments.

We continue to progress our technology deployment focus on increasing metal recovery and the volume of nonferrous materials from shredding operations.

Once fully operational we expect nonferrous volumes recovered from shredding to increase in the range of 20%.

The benefits of that come from our ability to generate more furnace ready higher valued products and creating product optionality.

We are targeting completion of construction of our technology initiatives by the summer of 2023.

As you can see in the slide our program is comprised of seven primary nonferrous recovery systems at our major shredder facilities. It will be the main drivers of the projected increase in recovered volumes.

These systems three a major aluminum and for our major copper recovery systems of which one is operational to date.

Our initiatives also include an aluminum separation system on each coast, one of which is operational and for supplemental copper separation systems of which three are operational.

We are now targeting substantial achievement of the estimated full run rate benefits of $10 EBITDA per ferrous ton by the end of calendar year 2023.

While the contribution from the fully operational system was not yet material in the fourth quarter as our major systems become fully operational we expect the quarterly benefit profile to gradually increase during fiscal 'twenty three beginning with the first quarter and to reach approximately two third of the full targeted run rate by the end of fiscal 'twenty three.

Subject of course to construction and permitting timelines.

We expect the overall capital investment to be in the range of $130 million.

Which $113 million have been spent to date, leaving just over $15 million to complete the projects in fiscal 'twenty three.

Now, let's move to slide 13 to discuss our steel mill performance and West Coast markets.

Reflecting healthy demand in the quarter in our West coast markets average selling prices for finished steel were up year over year by 22% and up only 1% from the highest ever levels reached in the third quarter supporting robust metal spreads that are meal fin.

Finished steel sales volumes of 125000 tons were down 7% sequentially.

Our average rolling mill utilization for the quarter was 93%, which was significantly higher than the U S average of less than 80%.

Now, let's move to slide 14, and discuss cash flow capital structure and our outlook for the first quarter.

Operating cash flow in the fourth quarter was strongly positive at $180 million driven by profitability and a significant reduction in working capital, including from the lower price environment and the reduction in inventories using the four bulk shipments delayed from the prior quarter.

For the full year, our operating cash flow was $238 million driven by strong profitability and effective working capital management.

Benefiting from the strong cash flow generation, our net debt was $205 million a reduction of more than $100 million sequentially.

We amended our credit facility agreement during the quarter, which provides for more favorable pricing extended its maturity to August 2027, and upsize, the borrowing capacity by $100 million to $800 million.

We have a healthy balance sheet with net leverage of 18% at quarter end, primarily reflecting our investments and acquisitions during the fiscal year.

And our ratio of net debt to adjusted EBITDA is 0.7 X.

As part of our balanced capital allocation strategy, we returned capital to shareholders through our quarterly dividend and the repurchase of 500000 shares of our class a common stock for $16 million.

Capex in the fourth quarter totaled $52 million.

Fiscal 'twenty two as a whole capex was $150 million.

Third of which was for investments in growth driven primarily by our non ferrous recovery technology projects.

Looking ahead to fiscal 'twenty three we currently expect our capex to be in the range of $120 million to $140 million.

Around the third will be for growth projects, including the completion of our technology initiatives investments to support recycling services expansion and planned post acquisition Capex at Columbus, and uncle recycling the.

The remaining capex will be for maintaining the business environmental related capital projects.

Our quarterly run rate of depreciation and amortization approximating $20 million during the fourth quarter of fiscal 'twenty two.

As major capital projects are completed we would expect this quarterly run rate to gradually increase to $25 million by the end of fiscal 'twenty three.

Our effective tax rate was an expense of 11% on our fourth quarter results.

Clearly the benefits of approximately $2 million associated with certain discrete tax items.

For fiscal 'twenty, three we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 23% subject to financial performance.

While we're just over halfway through the quarter I'll now turn to our outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 'twenty, three which is based on market conditions and information we have today.

We expect our ferrous volumes to be down 15% year over year due to tighter supply flows and the impact on volumes from the shredder outage at our Everett facility and the regulatory issue in California.

Nonferrous sales volumes are expected to be higher year over year by approximately 10%.

Finished steel sales volumes are expected to be down about 10% sequentially due to normal seasonality and a softening in the west coast demand for wire Rod products.

<unk> utilization is expected to be in the range of 80% due to a planned maintenance outage.

We expect the disruptions in evident in Oakland to lead to an adverse impact in the first quarter estimated at $15 per ferrous ton from a combination of lower intake and sales volumes and higher costs.

Excluding this impact we expect our consolidated adjusted EBITDA per ferrous ton to approximate the $32 achieved in the fourth quarter.

Looking at some of the underlying sequential dynamics.

Recycling metal spreads in the first quarter will not have a similar benefit of forward sales at higher prices that we saw in the fourth quarter.

We also expect the contribution from our steel mill could be reduced due to the impact of lower finished steel prices and sales volumes.

We anticipate the compression of margin, resulting from these two items together with the impact of tighter scrap flows will substantially offset the sequential improvement from average inventory accounting, which is projected to be a detriment of approximately $5 preferred starting in the first quarter compared to a detriment of $23.

There is some in the prior quarter and up.

Partial benefits from productivity initiatives.

We expect our net debt to increase sequentially driven by a detriment from working capital on operating cash flow, including from payment of incentive compensation previously accrued for fiscal 'twenty to performance.

Looking beyond beyond our first quarter operational disruptions.

Even in an environment of tight supply and low mill industry utilization, we expect the benefits of our nonferrous recovery initiatives and realization of the full run rate contribution from our new productivity initiatives to provide a path to an expansion of margin.

We expect to generate operating leverage from volume growth once flows improve.

And with that I'll turn the call back over to Tamara.

Thank you Stefano.

As we move forward in fiscal 'twenty, three our strategic growth investments and our productivity initiatives are expected to deliver additional material benefits. We have a strong balance sheet with low leverage and interest expense a track record of delivering positive operating cash flow and ability to invest in the growth and productivity of our.

Company and an uninterrupted record of returning capital to our shareholders through our dividend, we are well positioned to benefit from the global focus on decarbonization, the increased metal intensity of low carbon technologies and the continued growth in U S and global E S steelmaking capacity.

In closing I'd like to thank our employees for their dedication to serving our customers and communities supporting our suppliers and demonstrating the critical and essential role of our business and industry and the economy.

You have demonstrated once again why we have continued to be a leader in the recycling industry for over a century.

And now Shree, let's open up the call for questions. Thank you as a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one one on your telephone please.

Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.

Right.

Okay.

And our first question will come from Emily Chang with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Good morning, Tamara and Stephane. Thank you for taking the time this morning.

I wanted to ask around the new $40 million of productivity initiatives in FY 'twenty three could you. Please outline some of the actions that will be taken to drive that $40 million sort of uplift there and how should we see the cadence of these benefits materialize throughout the year.

Sure Stephen why don't you take that.

Sure. So good morning, and many thanks for the question so our productivity initiatives.

Okay aimed to help offset inflationary pressure on operating costs and really are looking at things like achieving production efficiencies.

Creasing yields generating savings from procurement initiatives optimizing logistics and the like.

Have a process do you want to track these initiatives based on Kpis and other data points to support and ensure achievement, who we feel comfortable about our ability to achieve those and from a timing perspective.

Most of the initiatives are being implemented during Q1, our first quarter. So we expect partial benefit in Q1, I would say about half the run rate of the benefits are in our fourth quarter first quarter results and then I would expect substantially all of the full run rate benefits to be achieved.

During our second quarter.

And Emily I would add to that that we have a track record of doing this even.

And even in market environments that are positive so as as I mentioned in my remarks in each of the preceding two years. For example, we have delivered productivity benefits.

In the range of $20 million or so each year. So this is something that that we do as part of our continuous improvement culture and as Stefano said, it's something that we track on a line by line basis.

Great. Thank you.

And just a quick follow up if I may around the <unk> 'twenty three outlook. Stephanie you mentioned I think that consolidated EBITDA per ton.

Wanted to approximately $32, we saw in the fourth quarter I just wanted to confirm that had also included the inventory account detriment of I think it was $5 a ton that.

Thanks Emily.

So our outlook for the first quarter of $32 per ton includes the $5 from the from the average inventory accounting, which is a detriment.

And just to reiterate the outlook.

The $32 basically exclude the impact of these disruptions associated with the average shredder outage and the Oakland.

What kind of regulatory change so we view those.

Kind of a unique item and so we are looking beyond that.

And we're excited.

$32 per ton.

Based.

Great. Thank you.

And as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question. Please press star one one on your telephone.

And speakers I'm showing no further questions in the queue. At this time I would now like to turn the call back over to MS. Tamara Lundgren for any closing remarks.

Thank you Sri and thank you everyone for your time today, we look forward to speaking with you again in January and over the course of the next few weeks during investor meetings. When we report our first quarter results in January and can review, the Q4 and full year results and outlook that we discussed today in <unk>.

The interim stay safe and stay well thank you.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.

Okay.

The conference will begin shortly to raise your hand during Q&A you can dial star one one.

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Q4 2022 Schnitzer Steel Industries Inc Earnings Call

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