Q4 2022 Fair Isaac Corp Earnings Call
Greetings and thank you for standing by and welcome to the Fair Isaac Corporation quarterly earnings call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen only mode.
George will conduct a question and answer session at that time. If you have a question. Please press the one followed by the four and your telephone.
At any time during the conference in each reach an operator. Please press Star Zero. This conference is being recorded Wednesday November nine 2022, and now I'd like to turn the conference over to Steve Weber, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you good afternoon, and thank you for joining <unk> fourth quarter earnings call I'm, Steve Weber, Vice President of Investor Relations and I'm joined today by our CEO will Lansing and our CFO , Mike Mclaughlin today.
We issued a press release that describes financial results compared to the prior to year on this call management will also discuss <unk>.
In comparison to the prior quarter in order to facilitate understanding of the run rate of our business.
Certain statements made in this presentation may be characterized as forward looking under the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of $19 95.
Statements involve many uncertainties, including the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic conditions and the company's business operations and personnel that could cause actual results to differ materially.
Information concerning these uncertainties is contained in the Companys filings with the SEC in particular in the risk factors and forward looking statements portions of such filings.
Copies are available from the SEC.
<unk> web site or from our Investor Relations team.
Call will also include statements regarding certain non-GAAP financial measures.
Please refer to the company's earnings release, and the regulation G schedule issued today for a reconciliation of each of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measure.
The earnings release and regulation G schedule are available on the Investor Relations page of the company's website at <unk> dot com or on the SEC's website at SEC Gov.
A replay of this webcast will be available through November nine 2023, and now I will turn the call over to William.
Thanks, Steve and thank you everyone for joining us for our fourth quarter earnings call.
In the Investor Relations section of our website, we've posted some slides that we will be referencing during our presentation today.
I am pleased to report that we had a very good quarter, which completed an outstanding year with record revenues record earnings and record cash flows we easily exceeded our guidance in all areas, even after a mid year race.
Pages, two and three show some financial highlights from our fourth quarter, we reported revenues of $349 million in fourth quarter and $1 $38 billion of revenue for the fiscal year.
We delivered $91 million of GAAP net income in the quarter and GAAP earnings of $3 55 per share for.
For the full fiscal year, we delivered $374 million of GAAP net income $14 19 of earnings per share.
On a non-GAAP basis Q4, net income was $112 million and earnings per share were $4 40.
Full year non-GAAP net income was $454 million.
Up 19% over last year, and non-GAAP EPS of $17 22 was up 32% over the previous year.
We continued to deliver strong free cash flow growth as well Q.
Q4 free cash flow was $144 million, bringing the fiscal year total to $503 million up 21% from the previous year.
Our strong cash flow allowed us to be especially aggressive in returning capital to shareholders through our share buybacks in fiscal 2022, we repurchased nearly $2 7 million shares at an average price of $409 per share.
And our software segment, we delivered $175 million of revenue up 5% from last year, we continued to drive growth in this segment, particularly on our platform.
As shown on page seven total <unk> was up 9% and the platform <unk> grew 52%, we continued to deliver strong NR as well demonstrating our land and expand strategy as customers increased their total usage total <unk> for the quarter shown on page eight was 107% plus.
<unk> was 128%.
And we continue to see strong demand for our technology from new customers, our ACB bookings as shown on page nine were up 14% over last year.
We continue to focus on our state of the art FICO platform. It truly is nextgen decisioning technology. It allows customers to use advanced analytics to optimize interactions with our consumers.
In our scores segment, we're seeing a continuation of the trend for the last several quarters mortgage originations have continued to decline and in Q4 accounted for just 11% of our scores revenue and 5% of total company revenues.
<unk> originations revenues remained relatively stable with originations flat with last quarter and up 20% versus last year, primarily due to pricing.
In personal loan originations continued to perform well with originations revenues up 37% over last year.
Total scores revenues were up 3% in the quarter versus the prior year and up 8% for the full year as you can see on page six.
On the <unk> side side revenues were up 6% in both the quarter and for the full year. This is a strong result, considering the rapid and dramatic rise of interest rates and their impact on the mortgage market on the BDC side revenues were down 3% in the quarter due to a slowdown in new customer subscriptions on our Myfico platform.
And up 11% for the full year.
I will discuss next year's guidance in greater detail later, where we expect the scores business to grow about 7%. We also expect the special pricing initiatives for 2023 tab and additional impact beyond our guided numbers consistent with those of the last several years, although it is difficult to estimate the timing and magnitude of the impact.
Finally, as Youre aware, the federal housing Finance agency announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have completed their validation and approval of new credit scoring models I'm pleased the process has concluded and that the FICO score has again been approved for use in conforming mortgages by the enterprises. This decision means that FICO score 10 T will.
We required to be used when available as classic FICO is today for each conforming mortgage delivered to the enterprises.
The latest release of our flagship FICO score FICO score 10, T delivers increased predictive power, while preserving the trusted and proven FICO score minimums, scoring criteria. These improvements in predictive power can help mortgage lenders safely avoid unexpected credit risk.
And better control default rates.
The decision from the FHFA is the culmination of a multi year process set up by both congressional and administrative regulation.
We look forward to additional guidance from the FHFA and the enterprises on the timeline and implementation process. I'm also pleased to report that in our fourth quarter, we signed a multi year extension with the large bureau partner and the consumer scores space.
Some final comments and provide our fiscal 'twenty three guidance in a few minutes, but first let me turn the call over to Mike for further financial details.
Thanks will and good afternoon, everyone as well summarize we had another exceptional fiscal year and we are pleased with our momentum as we head into fiscal 2023 total revenue for the fourth quarter was $349 million, an increase of 4% over the prior year, our full year revenue of $1 38 billion was up 5% over last year and up eight.
Percent when adjusted for the divestitures, we completed in fiscal 2021 and.
In our scores segment revenues for the quarter were $174 million up 3% from the same period last year.
<unk> revenue was up 6% with growth in our auto scores and credit card and personal loan scores more than compensating for continued declines in mortgage score revenues are.
<unk> revenue was down 3% from the same period last year due primarily to the impact of fewer new subscribers on our Myfico Dot com platform a trend we highlighted on last quarter's earnings call.
For the full year scores revenues were $707 million up 8% from last year, despite sizable headwinds in the mortgage origination space.
Software segment revenues in the fourth quarter were $175 million up 5% versus the same period last year full year software revenues were $671 million up 1% from the previous year and up 9% after adjusting for our 2021 divestitures.
This quarter, 82% of total company revenues were derived from our Americas region, which includes both North America, and Latin America, our EMEA region generated 11% and 7% was from Asia Pacific.
Our software AAR are at the end of the fourth quarter was $569 million, a 9% increase over the prior year quarter. Our platform <unk> was $114 million, representing 20% of our total fourth quarter, IRR and a growth rate of 52% versus the prior year, our non platform <unk> was for <unk>.
<unk> hundred $55 million in the fourth quarter, which was 1% higher than the prior year.
Our dollar based net retention rate in the quarter was 107% overall, our non platform customers software usage continues to be mature and relatively stable with retention. This quarter at 100% are platform customers are showing very strong net expansion from land and expand follow on sales and increased usage of the <unk>.
Net retention rate for platform was 128% in the fourth quarter versus 143% in prior year.
Our software ACB bookings for the quarter were $30 million versus 26 million in the prior year.
<unk> bookings increased for the full year to $86 million versus $63 million in FY 'twenty. One as a reminder, ACD bookings include only the annual value of new software sales excluding professional services.
Turning now to our expenses for the quarter total operating expenses were $215 million this quarter versus $219 million in the prior year.
In fiscal 2022, our expenses benefited from a number of factors, including savings from divested businesses head count reduction actions taken at the end of FY 'twenty, one somewhat elevated employee attrition and significant operational efficiencies achieved in our software segment. While we will continue our focus on expense efficiency in fiscal 'twenty.
'twenty three we expect our total expenses to trend up modestly in the coming year.
Our non-GAAP operating margin as shown on our Reg G schedule was 47% for the quarter and 48% for the full year, we delivered non-GAAP margin expansion of 800 basis points for the full fiscal year.
GAAP net income this quarter was $91 million up 6% from the prior year quarter. Our non-GAAP net income was $112 million for the quarter and materially consistent with the same quarter last year for.
For the full year GAAP net income was $374 million compared with $392 million last year. As a reminder, last year's GAAP net income included a gain of $100 million on product line asset and business divestitures.
GAAP net income for fiscal 2022 was $454 million up 19% from the prior year.
The effective tax rate for the full year was 21%, including $9 million of reduced tax expense from excess tax benefits recognized upon the settlement or exercise of employee stock Awards, we expect our FY 2023 recurring tax rate to be approximately 25% to 26% that expected recurring tax rate is before any excess.
This tax benefit and other discrete items, the resulting net effect effective tax rate is estimated to be about 24% in FY 'twenty three.
Free cash flow for the quarter was $144 million for the full year free cash flow was $503 million up 21% from last year's $416 million.
At the end of the quarter, we had $159 million in cash and marketable investments.
Our total debt at quarter end was 185 billion with a weighted average interest rate of four 4% as you recall, we issued $550 million in senior notes last December locking in a fixed rate of 4%.
Currently about 70% of our total debt is fixed rate.
Our floating rate debt is pre payable at any time, and giving us the flexibility to use free cash flow to reduce outstanding floating rate debt balances. If it is financially advantageous for us to do so in future periods.
Turning to return of capital we bought back 120000 shares in the fourth quarter at an average price of $468 per share in fiscal 2022, we repurchased a total of $2 two.
$2 678000 shares at an average price of $4 nine per share for a total of $1 1 billion.
The board approved a new $500 million authorization in October and we continue to view share repurchases as an attractive use of cash with that I'll turn it back over to well for his thoughts on FY 'twenty three.
Thanks, Mike as we enter our fiscal 2023 Im excited about our prospects and the opportunities that lie ahead, we have an incredible set of assets and a business model that can produce predictable solid results even in a turbulent macro environment.
FICO platform continues to experience phenomenal growth as we find a receptive audience for best in class Decisioning that our analytics deliver.
Our scores business continues to deliver industry standard risk management products that are especially critical in uncertain economic times and the recent FHFA decision ensures that we will be a critical component in the mortgage process for many years to come.
The successful deal signings, we had in fiscal 'twenty, two as well as prudent planning and management gives us confidence we will have another successful year in fiscal 'twenty three.
We are providing full year guidance as shown on the presentation. We're guiding revenues of approximately $1 $475 million, an increase of 7% versus fiscal 'twenty two.
We are guiding GAAP net income of approximately $401 million, an increase of seven 5%.
GAAP earnings per share of approximately $16 an increase of 13%.
non-GAAP net income of $487 million.
And non-GAAP earnings per share of $19 42.
Increases of seven and a half and 13% respectively with that I'll turn it back over to Steve and we will take questions.
Thanks will.
This does conclude our prepared remarks, and we're now ready to take any questions. You may have operator, please open the lines.
Thank you if you'd like to register a question. Please press the one followed by the four on your telephone you will hear a three ton prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you would like to Australia Registrational. Please press. The one followed by the three if you are using a speaker phone. Please lift your handset before entering your request once again, it's one fourth retro for question. We do have a question from the line of Kyle Peterson.
With Needham <unk> Company. Please go ahead your line is open.
Hey, guys. This is actually.
Sam sell that bumped the trial today, thanks for taking the questions.
Nice results here I wanted to start out on the software side of the business. It seems like things are still going well here.
But wanted to get a sense, if you guys could talk a little bit more about.
Demand here, maybe specifically on the international side are you guys seeing any deals get pushed out or any deals being downsized given the current macro environment.
We are not seeing deals pushed out nor are we seeing deals downsized.
It's probably worth noting that we have a fairly long sales cycle.
Approximately a year long.
And so it's.
Long enough in our view.
But we have not seen softness no I think that the.
The current solutions and offerings, particularly around the platform are really strategic.
And the and our customers see them that way and it's a higher level decision and so whatever financial pressure our customers may be under.
Our deals with them seem not to be affected.
Got it okay.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.
And then just a quick follow up I was wondering if you guys could talk a little bit more about the volumes you guys have been seeing on the scores business.
Miss as far as the different segments.
Maybe maybe talk a little bit about how you guys are feeling.
About credit card and mortgage auto as we head into.
2023.
Thanks.
Hi, Sam it's Mike as in past quarters, we don't disclose volumes precisely, but also as in past quarters. I can tell you that the volumes. We saw are pretty consistent with what you have seen as <unk> been watching the third party data out there from either the MBA or J D power.
Our credit card issuers themselves mortgages declined for us in volume.
Quantity consistent with what you can see from some of those data points auto was more or less flat both on a quarter over quarter and year over year basis again, consistent with external reporting and on the credit card side growth continued to be strong on a year over year basis. It was.
More or less flat on a quarter over quarter basis, but consistent with the market in terms of how we feel going forward.
We don't make predictions about volumes in those sectors, we don't have an economy and don't necessarily consider ourselves experts in.
Forecasting that kind of.
Consumer behavior, but I think you can have some confidence that our volumes will pretty much track. The overall market is it hasnt task orders.
Yeah got it that's helpful.
Thanks, guys nice quarter again.
Next question is from Ashish <unk> with RBC capital markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, This is Josh filling in for Ashish, maybe just to follow up on the ACB bookings, 14% was very strong is there anything thats driving that strength or is this more of a seasonal element.
Well, we have a lot of quarter to quarter variability in the ACB bookings as you can see from our data.
Sure.
And our ACB bookings tend to be fourth quarter weighted this year was a little last fourth quarter weighted than last year. So I would encourage you to look at that at the year at the full year comparison, not so much the quarter over quarter, because one quarter doesn't make a trend our year over year growth in ACD bookings.
<unk> talked about over 30%.
And it reflects the underlying strength in a variety of areas of our business our platform business, our customer communications business.
As well.
And the guidance that we have for next year.
Is not heroic in terms of the amount of new ACD bookings, we need to deliver relative to.
Past year.
Great. Thank you and then maybe just quickly could you give us some more color on the slowdown in marketing and as well as the shift of freemium and how it's weighed on BTC and perhaps how we could think about BDC revenue growth going forward.
Now what do you mean by slowdown in marketing.
So based on our math it looks like we might have.
So all of this slowdown in marketing account management, but EBIT off there.
Is that the case.
Okay. So youre talking about the scores side of the business and the <unk>.
Sale of <unk>.
Our scores used for marketing or pre screening purposes is that correct.
Yes, slightly okay. Okay gotcha.
Yes.
With last quarter, we've seen a flattening of the growth and the sale of that type of score the prescreening of pre score.
Sale in fact, it was down a little bit this quarter on a quarter over quarter basis.
And we do think it's somewhat of a leading indicator as to how much credit, particularly credit card and personal loan credit lenders want to extend in future periods.
We've never analyzed precisely how predictive it is.
System with what we're seeing in the macro and the demand for that kind of a score was down a little bit on a quarter over quarter basis for us.
Got it great color. Thank you.
Our next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hey, this is brendan on for Manav.
Just wanted to ask on the guidance, 7% growth for score is obviously.
It didn't quite do that this quarter and there is some macro certainly a more macro concerns for for next year.
You talk about.
Flattening in marketing how that can be a leading indicator or does it seem like there are some negatives, but at the same time, it's pretty good.
Pretty good pretty good guidance and of course that doesn't include pricing so.
I guess, what gives you the confidence for that and then what are the what are the puts and takes driving that 7%.
Yes, good question.
So starting with the special pricing special pricing is in addition to our guidance its not in that 7% exactly it's really think of it as being consistent with past years and outside of our guidance because we can't really predict the timing and so on.
With respect to within the guidance of 7%.
We have a fairly significant CPI increase there which in years passed has been there as well, but it was always a much smaller number this year, we're talking about a reasonably significant number which is driving a fair bit of that and.
And also I would say that mortgages, it's a smaller piece of our business and and so we feel pretty good about the overall mix.
Okay and then just.
Kind of looking at how that translates down to the bottom line.
Yes.
Pretty good EPS number is there is it.
Can you comment any on margins or I guess you guys had commented on expenses, but is it just you expect a strong flow through in.
Or is there something else contemplate it seemed like the EPS was.
A good amount above net income and I don't know I don't know if I said.
The growth rate I don't know if thats just from the repurchases in the back half of this year or.
It's a bit of both I mean, so we're clearly holding the line on expenses, but it's also a smaller share count they are both contributors.
And just to add to that.
We expect to grow revenues faster than expenses thats kind of that simple.
We have reduced share count by such a degree that the EPS growth is going to be faster than net income growth.
Okay and there is no.
Is there are there any repurchases assumed in 'twenty three in that number.
Yes, we can.
Anticipate repurchasing shares at a.
It's more or less consistent with our free cash flow generation for the year.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question is from Surinder <unk> with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you Paul.
Hung up on the perhaps the first question is asked about the demand environment and software.
Can you provide any color in terms of the new conversations that you might be having with clients given that the sales cycle is long obviously.
There is an ability to kind of.
Take advantage of that length of period, but what about new conversations or are you able to kind of bring new clients to the table to start those conversations or how should we be thinking about that part of the.
The pipeline is yes, we absolutely are we absolutely are so.
We think of our target market.
As the top 200.
Financial institutions globally.
And our penetration there is around 15% a little over 30 customers signed for the platform.
And so our conversations take two forms one is let's let's talk to the other 85% of our target market that has not yet signed up for the platform as well as expansion opportunities with the ones, who already have and both of those kinds of conversations are going on and very successfully.
Got it that's helpful.
And then on the BDC piece.
Any additional color you can provide there in terms of it sounds like.
The weakness within the my FICO Dot com parts.
Any color on how the revenues.
Within your relationship partner.
So so consumer via C. Does have does move in sympathy with mortgage volumes because as you know consumers tend to sign up for that kind of subscription wouldn't.
We're not contemplating mortgages when they are wondering what their FICO scores.
B for them when they go out and get financing.
So as as the mortgage volumes go down so too with a little bit of a lag, but so too do our.
<unk> B.
C Myfico volumes.
Our volumes are they're good they're they're down a little bit they are good and the same with our partners our partners are.
They're doing okay.
Fair enough.
And then in terms of just.
When we kind of breakdown the.
The guidance on.
The scores and software for next year.
Looks like Youre looking for about roughly equal growth.
You've talked about the CPI component.
Is there also in anticipation of just volume growth here, how should we think about the mix at this point in terms of.
It seems like right now card remains quite strong and you can argue that auto was probably near trough. So maybe there's improvement there but.
How are you generally what kind of an environment is kind of baked into those assumptions is it just a little bit of a continuation of what we're currently seeing or how should we think about that.
The various macro factors that might influence the underlying assumptions there.
I think a fair way to think about it is a bit of a continuation of what we're currently seeing so.
Flattish modest very modest kind of growth.
And the balance may end up with price.
Okay.
The fact that we have a price lever makes a huge difference it's part of why we have the confidence that we have.
And at this point in time I assume.
Special pricing.
Term sheets all of that's been communicated.
Yes.
Although it hasnt taken effect.
Correct It will take effect on.
January one correct.
For most but not all customers yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Our next question is from George Tong with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Alright, thanks, good afternoon.
In your guidance for next year can you outline what youre assuming for <unk> growth.
And the scores business.
Yes.
I want to get into too much detail around that but.
Consistent with wells prior comment about more or less think about it as a continuation of the trends we're seeing we.
We've seen <unk> down a little bit sequentially over the last couple of quarters and that's consistent with how we are thinking about the full year for 'twenty three.
Great.
And then with respect to margins.
How much of the margin expansion that Youre forecasting for next year is going to come from scores versus software are you expecting more contribution from one part of the business over the other or is it relatively equal.
Benefits from both.
Sorry could you say that again I think I missed the first part of it.
Just trying to get a sense for how much of the margin expansion next year, it will be driven by software versus buy scores.
I see margin expansion.
As we've talked about extensively in the past on the software and the software business. Our focus is on the platform.
And driving growth there so we're not.
Focus on dramatic margin improvement in the software business, we might have a little bit, but we're mostly focused on growth of the platform in the scores business due to the gross margin nature of that business.
Relative to expense growth.
Most of the dollar growth you see there a lot of it falls to the bottom line. So in terms of contribution to operating margin expansion.
It's weighted towards the scores business for sure.
Great very helpful. Thank you.
Our next question is from Jeff Mueller with Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes. Thank you the multi year extension with the large bureau partner is that the E C partnership.
Sure.
What was that was that.
Something other than that.
No that is the BDC partnership, which which is I think we've shared in the past had a couple more years to run and what we've done is extended another few years beyond that and so we now have.
A lot of certainty around what that would be to see partnership looks like for many years to come.
Got it and then for us.
<unk> pricing and scores.
How is that implemented like is it formulaic tied to CPI or do you kind of dictate an amount that is influenced by CPI just want to understand how that takes a it's more of the latter because as you know.
As you know the CPI numbers are constantly moving and we can pick a number thats a point in time number that would be exactly the CPI, we could pick a rolling number we could do a historical number we could do a projection and so we'd never get it exactly right.
Our best guess and put down a number but its our interpretation.
Okay, and then for the non U S based clients and software how much of that is contracted in U S. Dollar.
To the extent to which it is is there any market reaction in some of the markets where their currencies have been particularly weak relative to the dollar recently.
It is mostly U S dollars and it is not a new thing for our customers prefer to operate in their own currency and its not a new thing for us to prefer to operate in U S dollars.
So we kind of are where we are and so yes, you can imagine that it's for them based on the strength of the dollar it's a little bit tougher, but we haven't changed our policies.
And that varies from geography to geography. So for example in Brazil.
Sure.
Hi.
For the most part in the U K likewise pretty much priced in balance in the euro it's mixed.
And sort of second and third world countries. Its dollar.
Got it and then just last since we have the K, we get the client pump disclosure just any comment on.
The number of large financial institution, so I guess in the U S went down from 96 to 92 are those software or scores clients or is there an impact from I don't remember the exact timing of the collections and recovery divestiture and then it looks like a good news story internationally I don't know how much this.
Is rounding but going from two thirds.
To three quarters.
Just any comment on those client count metrics.
I wouldn't read too much into that Jeff and the U S.
Consolidation is something that we can't control that often reduces just the number of logos we have.
And any change in the names the number of logos would primarily be a function of software.
Everybody uses the FICO score essentially among the large financial institutions. So that doesn't change, but there is not a trend that I would read into that.
Internationally.
We do see new logos, new logos, because theres a lot more greenfield internationally for us than than in the U S.
Got it thank you guys.
Yes.
I believe that's all the questions we have I'll turn the call back over to Steve.
Thank you. Thank you everyone for joining and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.
<unk> latest next quarter. Thank you.
That concludes the call for today, we thank you for your participation and ask you. Please disconnect your lines.
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<unk>.
Okay.
[music].
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Sure.
Great.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay.
[music].
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Sure.
Okay.
Okay.
[music].
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
[music] expands.
Sure.
Okay.
Yes.
[music].
<unk>.
Okay.
[music].
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Sure.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
[music].
Yes.
Thanks.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
[music].
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
Yes.
[music].
Okay.
Okay.
[music].
Okay.
Okay.
Yes.
Yeah.