Q3 2023 Guess? Inc Earnings Call

Good day, everyone and welcome to the guess third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call I would like to turn the call over to you for a brief span of rush, Vice President of finance and Investor Relations.

Speaker 1: Good day everyone and welcome to the guest third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call. I would like to turn the call over to Fabrice Benarouche, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Hi everyone and welcome to the guest third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call.

Thank you operator, good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us today.

On the call today with me are Carlos Javier any chief Executive Officer, and Dennis <unk> interim Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 2: Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. On the call today with me are Carlos Albireni, Chief Executive Officer, and Denis Sico, Interim Chief Financial Officer.

During today's call the company will be making forward looking statements, including comments regarding future plans strategic initiatives capital allocation and short and long term outlook, including potential impacts from the coronavirus pandemic.

Speaker 2: During today's call, the company will be making forward-looking statements, including comments regarding future plans, strategic initiatives, capital allocation and short- and long-term outlook, including potential impacts from the coronavirus pandemic.

The company's actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on we expect those included in todays press release, and the company's quarterly and annual reports filed with the SEC.

Speaker 2: The company's actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on risk factors included in today's press release and the company's quarterly and annual reports side with the SEC.

<unk> will also reference certain non-GAAP or adjusted measures.

<unk> and descriptions of these measures can be found in today's earnings release now ill turn it over to Carlos.

Speaker 2: Comments will also reference certain non-GAAP or adjusted measures.

Speaker 2: Gap reconciliation and descriptions of these measures can be found in today's earnings release.

Thank you for brief good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining US today I am very pleased to report our third quarter results, which exceeded our expectations for revenues adjusted operating profit and adjusted operating margin. Our performance continues to be impacted by the adverse currency.

Speaker 2: Now I will turn it over to Carlos.

Speaker 3: Thank you, Fabrice. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I am very pleased to report our third quarter results, which exceeded our expectations for revenues, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted operating margin.

And due to the strong U S. Dollar as a result, our revenue decreased by almost 2% in U S dollars during the period, while growing 10% in constant currency driven primarily by the strength of our business in Europe , we delivered a nine 1% adjusted operating margin and $58 million.

Speaker 3: Our performance continues to be impacted by the adverse currency environment due to the strong US dollar. As a result, our revenues decreased by almost 2% in US dollars during the period while growing 10% in constant currency, driven primarily by the strength of our business in Europe . We delivered a 9.1% adjusted operating margin and $58 million in adjusted operating profit. Once again, Paul and I are very proud of our teams around the world, who continue to manage the business very effectively, navigating through a challenging environment and growing market share in multiple markets.

In adjusted operating profit once again, Paul and I are very proud of our teams around the world who continue to manage the business very effectively navigating through a challenging environment and growing market share in multiple markets. Our approach has not changed we continue to focus on what we can control.

Paying close attention to inventories, which we continue to buy solely based on expected customer demand and managing cost tightly inspite of the current inflationary conditions.

Speaker 3: Our approach has not changed. We continue to focus on what we can control, paying close attention to inventories, which we continue to buy solely based on expected customer demand, and managing costs tightly in spite of the current inflationary conditions.

Our approach is working our company continues to perform well in spite of this non controllable factors. We currently estimate that the impact of FX alone. This year will contribute to a reduction of our operating profit of $60 million and two an EPS reduction of $1 15 for the.

Speaker 3: And our approach is working. Our company continues to perform well in spite of these non-controllable factors. We currently estimate that the impact of FX alone this year will contribute to a reduction of our operating profit of $60 million and to an EPS reduction of $1.15 for the year. We are very proud of the work being done by our team.

Year.

We are very proud of the work being done by our team I want to commend our associates for their great work and outstanding contributions. Thank you all for your dedication to our company.

Speaker 3: I want to commend our associates for their great work and outstanding contributions.

Starting with our performance by business, our Europe segment had a solid performance in the period reporting a 2% revenue decline in U S dollars and a strong 17% increase in constant currency driven by our wholesale and retail businesses, which continued to gain market share in a challenging environment.

Speaker 3: Thank you all for your dedication to our company.

Speaker 3: Starting with our performance by business, our Europe segment had a solid performance in the period, reporting a 2% revenue decline in US dollars and a strong 17% increase in constant currency, driven by our wholesale and retail businesses which continue to gain market share in a challenging environment.

Once again, the weaker euro had a significant impact on our quarterly results contributing to a 19% decrease in operating profit for the segment in the period.

Speaker 3: Once again, the weaker euro had a significant impact on our quarterly results, contributing to a 19% decrease in operating profit for the segment in the period.

Dennis will provide more color on this later in the call.

Our Americas retail segment reported a 2% revenue decline and a 53% decrease in operating profit due to gross margin contraction, coupled with an expense increase in the period. This performance was consistent with our expectations and reflected the comparison against strong results in last year's third.

Speaker 3: Dennis will provide more code on this later in the call.

Speaker 3: Our Americas retail segment reported a 2% revenue decline and a 53% decrease in operating profit due to gross margin contraction coupled with an expense increase in the period. This performance was consistent with our expectations and reflected the comparison against strong results in last year's third quarter.

Quarter due to unusually high levels of full price selling resulting from high demand and low inventory levels.

Speaker 3: due to unusually high levels of full price selling resulting from high demand and low inventory levels.

Our Americas wholesale segment reported a 10% decline in revenues and a 41% decrease in operating profit as we experienced the increase order cancellations and higher customer accommodations as retailers work through their overall higher inventory levels.

Speaker 3: Our Americas wholesale segment reported a 10% decline in revenues and a 41% decrease in operating profit as we experienced increased order cancellations and higher customer accommodations as retailers worked through their overall higher inventory levels.

Our Asia segment reported a 10% revenue increase in U S dollars and a 28% increase in constant currency as we experienced favorable comps in many of our markets in the region, given last year's store closures or reduced activity due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Speaker 3: Our Asia segment reported a 10% revenue increase in US dollars and a 28% increase in constant currency as we experienced favorable comes in many of our markets in the region given last year's store closures or reduced activity due to COVID restrictions.

During the period, we were able to breakeven in this segment as a result of the revenue increase coupled with the gross margin expansion and effective expense management.

Speaker 3: During the period, we were able to break even in this segment as a result of the revenue increase coupled with gross margin expansion and effective expense management.

Our licensing segment had another solid performance this quarter reporting a 4% revenue growth driven by strong performance of handbags.

Speaker 3: Our licensing segment had another solid performance this quarter, reporting a 4% revenue growth driven by strong performance of handbags.

Regarding product performance, we continued to benefit from our global line of products across all categories, where product performance is very consistent across most global markets. Since we launched the global line.

Speaker 3: Regarding product performance, we continue to benefit from our global line of products across all categories, where product performance is very consistent across most global markets since we launched the global line.

While our business has historically capitalized on sales of denim products during the back to school season. This year, we saw a deceleration in sales of casual products at leisure and a continued acceleration of sales of <unk> products as the customer is more focused on going out traveling and socializing versus.

Speaker 3: While our business has historically capitalized on sales of denim products during the back-to-school season, this year we saw a deceleration in sales of casual products and athleisure, and a continued acceleration of sales of dressy products, as the customer is more focused on going out, traveling and socializing versus staying home.

In home.

As a result, we delivered solid results with a dressy assortment within our collections, including dresses from both guests and marciano.

Speaker 3: As a result, we delivered solid results with the dressy assortment within our collections, including dresses from both Guess and Marciano.

While our collections of sweaters and outerwear very strong. This season, we believe that the warmer than usual temperatures in both North America and Europe have impacted demand temporarily we expect to see increased sales of these products during the upcoming months our sales of accessory products are growing faster than the rest of the business.

Speaker 3: While our collections of sweaters and outerwear are very strong this season, we believe that the warmer than usual temperatures in both North America and Europe have impacted demand temporarily.

Speaker 3: We expect to see increased sales of these products during the upcoming months.

And therefore, increasing in penetration.

Speaker 3: Our sales of accessory products are growing faster than the rest of the business and therefore increasing in penetration.

Product classifications here include handbags travel accessories, and small leather goods for women and men eyewear watches and fragrances as we approach the end of our fiscal year I want to spend a few minutes discussing how we're tracking against our strategic business plan.

Speaker 3: Strong product classifications here include handbags, travel accessories and small leather goods for women and men, eyewear, watches and fragrances.

Speaker 3: As we approach the end of our fiscal year, I want to spend a few minutes discussing how we are tracking against our strategic business plan.

Day, despite results of our efforts are being masked by the current macroeconomic environment, including unprecedented currency headwinds our company and business model have been transformed.

Speaker 3: Today, despite results of our efforts being masked by the current macroeconomic environment, including unprecedented currency hitwinds, our company and business model have been transformed.

At the center of this transformation is our critical brand elevation initiative.

Speaker 3: At the center of this transformation is our critical brand elevation initiative.

As you know Paul under product teams have done an incredible job transforming the product and have made significant progress over the last few years in elevating our brands.

Speaker 3: As you know, Paul and the product teams have done an incredible job transforming the product and have made significant progress over the last few years in elevating our brands.

This work remains ongoing as we continue to execute on our vision for the brands through our products our images, our marketing our stores and websites and most importantly, our ability to deliver an outstanding customer experience.

Speaker 3: This work remains ongoing as we continue to execute on our vision for the brands through our products, our images, our marketing, our stores and websites, and most importantly, our ability to deliver an outstanding customer experience.

Across the 25 product categories that we focus on this team has significantly improved quality, including fabrics trims, and make reduced SKU development and increase productivity significantly and this team has surgically priced every product based on its respective customer perceived value.

Speaker 3: Across the 25 product categories that we focus on, this team has significantly improved quality, including fabrics, trends, and make, reduced SKU development, and increased productivity significantly.

Speaker 3: And this team has surgically priced every product based on its respective customer perceived value, which has enabled us to raise prices thoughtfully and drive AUR increases in our business last year and this year.

Which has enabled us to raise prices thoughtfully and drive AUR increases in our business last year and this year.

We believe that the work that we have done also helps to differentiate our product and insulate us somewhat from that part of the market that may be overly reliant on heavy discounting to drive volume the work that Paul on the product and creative teams have done truly represents the greatest transformation that we haven't.

Speaker 3: We believe that the work that we have done also helps to differentiate our product and insulate us somewhat from that part of the market that may be overly reliant on heavy discounting to dry volume.

Speaker 3: The work that Paul and the product and creative teams have done truly represents the greatest transformation that we have embarked on at Guess in many years.

Barked on at guests in many years.

To support this product enhancements, we have also invested significantly in tools and infrastructure. During the last three years and have improved our capabilities meaningfully to optimize data collection and reporting customer engagement segmentation personalization frequency of shopping on conversion.

Speaker 3: To support these product enhancements, we have also invested significantly in tools and infrastructure during the last three years and have improved our capabilities meaningfully to optimize data collection and reporting, customer engagement, segmentation, personalization, frequency of shopping and conversion.

Regarding our digital transformation, we continue to make good progress on optimizing the new platform utilization and the implementation of our new CRM solution.

Speaker 3: Regarding our digital transformation, we continue to make good progress on optimizing the new platform in visualization and the implementation of our new CRM solution.

We remain on track with the rollout of this suite in Europe by the end of this year and now we expect its rollout in North America early next year.

Speaker 3: We remain on track with the rollout of this suite in Europe by the end of this year. And now we expect its rollout in North America early next year.

As planned we just completed the development of our new client, telling app and now launching it in Europe as we speak.

Speaker 3: As planned, we just completed the development of a new client selling app and are launching it in Europe as we speak.

And last but not least we have updated our store fleet around the world meaningfully remodeling, many stores and opening new locations, particularly in Europe and North America.

Speaker 3: And last but not least, we have updated our store fleet around the world meaningfully, remodeling many stores and opening new locations particularly in Europe and North America.

I will now touch on our supply chain initiatives.

As we have shared on previous calls our strategy. This year has been to order product earlier to mitigate the supply chain challenges that began last year.

Speaker 3: I will now touch on our supply chain initiative.

Speaker 3: As we have shared on previous calls, our strategy this year has been to order products earlier to mitigate the supply chain challenges that began last year.

This strategy has served us well as we have been able to meet our wholesale customers demands solidifying our relationship with them as a reliable partner we.

Speaker 3: This strategy has served us well, as we have been able to meet our wholesale customers' demands, solidifying our relationship with them as a reliable partner.

We delivered more products than we had anticipated in the quarter as there has been considerable interest for early shipments from our customer base in Europe .

Speaker 3: We delivered more products than we had anticipated in the quarter, as there has been considerable interest for early shipments from our customer base in Europe .

As we have said before we continue to order product based on anticipated customer demand, we have not been ordering more we have been ordering earlier.

Speaker 3: As we have said before, we continue to order product based on anticipated customer demand.

As we expected supply chains have recovering from last year's disruptions and the product can now travel faster and arrive at destinations more in line with the historical timelines, we ended the quarter with 19% higher inventory levels than a year ago, a deceleration from the second quarter and we expect that.

Speaker 3: We have not been ordering more, we have been ordering earlier.

Speaker 3: As we expected, supply chains are recovering from last year's disruptions, and the product can now travel faster and arrive at destinations more in line with the historical timeline.

Speaker 3: We ended the quarter with 19% higher inventory levels than a year ago, a deceleration from the second quarter, and we expect that gap to narrow further by the end of the year.

Gap to narrow further by the end of the year.

Roughly half of the increase was due to earlier receipts and the other half due to cost increases as a result of investments in quality and sustainability inflationary factors and the impact of currency. We are working on reducing production and transportation timelines for next year to tighten our.

Speaker 3: Roughly half of the increase was due to earlier receipts, and the other half due to cost increases as a result of investments in quality and sustainability, inflationary factors, and the impact of currency.

Speaker 3: We are working on reducing production and transportation timelines for next year to tighten our inventory investment and increase turnover.

Investments in increased turnover.

With respect to freight costs, we are continuing to manage our model carefully with an eye on cost optimization, we have significantly reduced our airfreight usage this year, resulting in meaningful cost reductions thus far and we are also seeing some relief in ocean cargo rates, which has and will provide.

Speaker 3: With respect to freight costs, we are continuing to manage our model carefully with an eye on cost optimization.

Speaker 3: We have significantly reduced our air freight usage this year, resulting in meaningful cost reductions thus far. We are also seeing some relief in ocean cargo rates, which has and will provide us with some modest benefits for the last quarter of this year.

US with some modest benefits for the last quarter of this year.

Finally, I want to touch on our sustainability efforts sustainability remains a key focus for our brands and we are committed to being part of the solution to climate change. In addition to other work that we're doing across the organization. We are pleased to have just completed our first new up cycle to collection.

Speaker 3: Finally, I want to touch on our sustainability efforts.

Speaker 3: Sustainability remains a key focus for our brand, and we are committed to being part of the solution to climate change.

Speaker 3: In addition to other work that we are doing across the organization, we are pleased to have just completed our first new upcycled collection.

This new line, which we expect will be available in the first half of next year will exclusively use materials from recycled products that we collected in our stores and give new life to all products returned by customers.

Speaker 3: This new line, which we expect will be available in the first half of next year, will exclusively use materials from recycled products that we collect in our stores and give new life to all products returned by customers.

Now turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, which remains largely unchanged from what we described during our last call. We expect softer consumer demand and inflationary forces to continue to impact our results. This year and into next year. We also sense that with a significant inventory levels being <unk>.

Speaker 3: Now, turning to our outlook for the fourth quarter, which remains largely unchanged from what we described during our last call. We expect softer consumer demand and inflationary forces to continue to impact our results this year and into next year.

Reported in this sector, we could see heightened promotional activity over the holidays as companies seek to right size their inventories absent a weakening of the U S. Dollar currencies will also remain a strong revenue and earnings headwind for us.

Speaker 3: We also sense that with the significant inventory levels being reported in the sector, we could see heightened promotional activity over the holidays as companies seek to right-size their inventories. Absent a weakening of the US dollar, currencies will also remain a strong revenue and earnings headwind for us. Installation andal delivery may not be the case in the unfold and near future with Utilitystimulating relevant economic participants or our elections or publications, however,

As we normally do we will focus on what we can control and we will adapt but always with an eye on doing what is right for our brand long term.

Speaker 3: As we normally do, we will focus on what we can control, and we will adapt, but always with an eye on doing what is right for our brand long term.

All in all we expect fourth quarter revenues to be down low to mid single digits in U S dollars and operating profit to exceed $100 million for the period.

Speaker 3: All in all, we expect fourth quarter revenues to be down low to mid single digits in US and operating profit to exceed $100 million for the period.

As it relates to fiscal year 2024, and beyond in line with our past practice, we expect to share our plans. When we report our Q4 results in March of next year.

Speaker 3: As it relates to fiscal year 2024 and beyond, in line with our past practice, we expect to share our plans when we report our Q4 results in March of next year.

In closing, while there will always be work to be done we are very happy with how we're positioned for the holiday period as well as our ability to capture long term growth opportunities.

Speaker 3: In closing, while there will always be work to be done, we are very happy with how we are positioned for the holiday period, as well as our ability to capture long-term growth opportunities.

The transformation that we have been affected during the last three years is clearly a game changer for our company.

Speaker 3: The transformation that we have been affected during the last three years is clearly a game changer for our company. We have two strong global brands, great products and a loyal customer base who love the Guess and Marciano brands.

Have two strong global brands, great products, and a loyal customer base, who loved the gas of Marciano brands, our powerful business model gives us a great platform to compete effectively all around the world and our robust capital structure gives us the opportunity to invest and drive strong returns for our shareholders.

Speaker 3: Our powerful business model gives us a great platform to compete effectively all around the world. And our robust capital structure gives us the opportunity to invest and drive strong returns for our shareholders.

We have a great team, who manages our business with discipline controls to the things that they can control and seeks and drives opportunities to gain market share and deliver profitable growth.

Speaker 3: We have a great team who manages our business with discipline, controls the things that they can control and seeks and drives opportunities to gain market share and deliver profitable growth.

Paul and I are so proud of this team.

Walter accomplishments and we couldnt be more excited about our future with that I will pass it to Dennis to review the third quarter in more detail and provide more color about our outlook Dennis.

Speaker 3: Paul and I are so proud of this team, of all their accomplishments, and we couldn't be more excited about our future.

Speaker 3: With that, I will pass it to Dennis to review the third quarter in more detail and provide more color about our outlook. Dennis?

Thank you Carlos and good afternoon, everyone.

As Carlos described our business and our teams performed well in the third quarter, even as significant global headwinds persist in.

Speaker 4: Thank you, Carlos, and good afternoon, everyone.

Speaker 4: As Carlos described, our business and our teams performed well in the third quarter, even as significant global headwinds persist.

In constant currency, we grew the topline by over 10%, though with the negative $76 million translation impact from the strong U S. Dollar our reported U S. Dollar revenues declined almost 2% to $633 million.

Speaker 4: In constant currency, we grew the top line by over 10%, though with the negative $76 million translation impact from the strong US dollar, our reported US dollar revenues declined almost 2% to $633 million.

Even against the backdrop of persistent global inflation and softening economic sentiment, we continue to benefit from our diversified business model with some regions continuing to post strong results while in other areas of the business. Our goal is to improve our performance.

Speaker 4: Even against the backdrop of persistent global inflation and softening economic sentiment,

Speaker 4: We continue to benefit from our diversified business model with some regions continuing to post strong results while in other areas of the business our goal is to improve our performance.

Especially satisfying to us that the substantial majority of our revenue growth is organic meaning it is high quality strong return levered growth driven by higher demand from our wholesale partners plus same store sales growth productivity gains from our existing retail store investments we.

Speaker 4: Especially satisfying too is that the substantial majority of our revenue growth is organic.

Speaker 4: Meaning it is high quality, strong return levered growth driven by higher demand from our wholesale partners, plus same store sales growth, productivity gains from our existing retail store investments.

Feel that reflects positively on the strength and momentum of the brand and many of our markets.

Speaker 4: We feel that reflects positively on the strength and momentum of the brand in many of our markets.

In Europe , we continued with strong momentum as the European consumer continues to reemerge after the pandemic.

Speaker 4: In Europe , we continued with strong momentum as the European consumer continues to re-emerge after the pandemic.

Demand from our European wholesale partners remained strong and in our retail stores theyre higher traffic and AUR increases helped deliver strong constant currency comps.

Speaker 4: Demand from our European wholesale partners remains strong, and in our retail stores there, higher traffic and AUR increases help deliver strong constant currency comps.

Our retail stores in Canada, and South Korea, followed a similar pattern to Europe , both delivering positive constant currency comps for the quarter.

Speaker 4: Our retail stores in Canada and South Korea followed a similar pattern to Europe , both delivering positive constant currency comps for the quarter.

These areas of regional strength helped mitigate some softening in the U S, where we're lapping last year's strong post pandemic demand.

Speaker 4: These areas of regional strength helped mitigate some softening in the U.S. where we're lapping last year's strong post-pandemic demand.

We have also experienced headwinds in global E com as consumers are shopping more intensely in stores and in China Covid restrictions are still affecting commercial activity.

Speaker 4: We've also experienced headwinds in global e-comm as consumers are shopping more intensely in stores and in China, COVID restrictions are still affecting commercial activity.

On top of all of this the U S. Dollar remained very strong against all major currencies and continued to be the most significant headwind for our margin performance 180 basis points equal to our total adjusted operating margin decline.

Speaker 4: On top of all this, the US dollar remained very strong against all major currencies and continued to be the most significant headwind for our margin performance. One hundred eighty basis points equal to our total adjusted operating margin decline.

So let me drill down into our performance.

In Europe , the underlying dynamics of our business in the region remain solid even as inflation energy shortages and negative economic sentiment affect consumers in the region.

Speaker 4: So let me drill down into our performance.

Speaker 4: In Europe , the underlying dynamics of our business in the region remain solid, even as inflation, energy shortages and negative economic sentiment affect consumers in the region.

Overall revenues in Europe grew 17% in constant currencies, though they declined 2% in U S dollars Rev.

Speaker 4: Overall, revenues in Europe grew 17% in constant currencies, though they declined 2% in US dollars.

Revenue growth for the segment was driven primarily by higher wholesale shipments.

Strong constant currency comp store sales increase and new stores that have been added in the region over the last 12 months.

Speaker 4: Revenue growth for the segment was driven primarily by higher wholesale shipments.

Speaker 4: a strong constant currency comp store sales increase, and new stores that have been added in the region over the last 12 months.

These growth drivers were more than offset by the negative impact of currency.

Just as with last quarter, we and our wholesale partners benefited again from our proactive management of inventory, where we've accelerated product deliveries to mitigate supply chain delays are.

Speaker 4: These growth drivers were more than offset by the negative impact of currency.

Speaker 4: Just as with last quarter, we and our wholesale partners benefited again from our proactive management of inventory where we've accelerated product deliveries to mitigate supply chain delays.

Our shipments this quarter include about $8 million and deliveries that we had expected would be shipped in Q4.

Speaker 4: Our shipments this quarter include about $8 million in deliveries that we had expected would be shipped in Q4.

In our European retail stores, we continued to see strong traffic into our stores.

Speaker 4: In our European retail stores, we continued to see strong traffic in door stores, though that growth rate moderated somewhat compared to our most recent quarters as we've now anniversaries some of the easing of COVID restrictions that took place last year.

That growth rate moderated somewhat compared to our most recent quarters as we've now anniversaried some of the easing of Covid restrictions that took place last year.

We continue to enjoy strong AUR growth given our price increases over the last year, while conversion was still negative.

Speaker 4: We continue to enjoy strong AUR growth given our price increases over the last year, while conversion was still negative, so eased from the second quarter.

<unk> from the second quarter.

This resulted in a 15% constant currency comp increase for the quarter.

One further note on comps relates to Turkey, where the economy is experiencing hyper inflation, that's creating an outsized impact on our constant currency comps, if we exclude Turkey, our European store constant currency comp increase would have been 7%.

Speaker 4: This resulted in a 15% constant currency comp increase for the quarter.

Speaker 4: One further note on comps relates to Turkey where the economy is experiencing hyperinflation. That's creating an outsized impact on our constant currency comps. If we exclude Turkey our European store constant currency comp increase would have been 7%.

European operating earnings decreased 19% and the operating margin declined by 230 basis points due to lower gross margins mainly caused by the strong U S dollar, partially offset by a lower expense rate due to leverage.

Speaker 4: European operating earnings decreased 19% and the operating margin declined by 230 basis points due to lower gross margins mainly caused by the strong US dollar, partially offset by a lower expense rate due to leverage.

In Americas retail revenues decreased 2% in U S dollars and 1% in constant currency.

Speaker 4: In America's retail, revenues decreased 2% in US dollars and 1% in constant currency.

Revenues benefited from the operation of new stores opened over the last year, which was more than offset by permanent store closures.

Speaker 4: Revenues benefited from the operation of new stores opened over the last year, which was more than offset by permanent store closures.

Comp store sales were flat in constant currency.

In the quarter, our comp performance was driven by increases in both AUR and traffic offset by lower conversion.

Speaker 4: Comp store sales were flat in constant currency.

Speaker 4: In the quarter, our comp performance was driven by increases in both AURs and traffic offset by lower conversion.

Again this quarter, our tourist locations outperformed the rest of our store fleet as the U S returns to a more normalized level of travel after the pandemic.

Speaker 4: Again, this quarter, our tourist locations outperform the rest of our store fleet as the US returns to a more normalized level of travel after the pandemic.

Americas retail operating profit declined 53% and operating margin declined 730 basis points.

Speaker 4: America's retail operating profit declined 53% and operating margin declined 730 basis points.

The change in margin was driven by a higher IMU more than offset by a lower mix of full price selling higher expenses, including store selling expenses given pressures on labor costs at a lower level of Covid relief this year.

Speaker 4: The change in margin was driven by a higher IMU, more than offset by a lower mix of full-price selling, higher expenses including store selling expenses given pressures on labor costs, and burn them However, we don't know whether we will a higher CIP in our That is not helping us in our

In Americas wholesale revenues declined by 10% in U S dollars and 9% in constant currency as some U S. Wholesale partners are managing their own inventory levels by limiting their receipts.

Speaker 4: at a lower level of COVID relief this year.

Speaker 4: In America's wholesale, revenues decline by 10% in US dollars and 9% in constant currency, as some US wholesale partners are managing their own inventory levels by limiting their receipts.

Operating profit declined 41% and operating margin declined 10, one points, mainly due to product margin declines from increased customer accommodations and higher expenses.

Speaker 4: Operating profit declined 41% and operating margin declined 10.1 points, mainly due to product margin declines from increased customer accommodations and higher expenses.

In Asia revenue grew 10% in U S dollars and 28% in constant currency.

Speaker 4: In Asia, revenue grew 10% in US dollars and 28% in constant currency.

The primary drivers for our sales growth included the direct operation of some of our South Korea retail stores, which we acquired from one of our wholesale partners.

Speaker 4: The primary drivers for our sales growth included the direct operation of some of our South Korea retail stores, which we acquired from one of our wholesale partners.

Sales growth from our e-commerce business, along with the constant currency comp increase of 11% from the regions retail stores.

Speaker 4: sales growth from our ecommerce business, along with a constant currency comp increase of 11% from the region's retail stores.

While traffic continued to be down compared to a year ago strong improvements in conversion and a higher AUR drove the comp growth.

Speaker 4: While traffic continued to be down compared to a year ago, strong improvements in conversion and a higher AUR drove the comp growth.

These increases were partially offset by permanent store closures in the region.

<unk> posted a breakeven operating result of $2 million improvement from last year.

Speaker 4: These increases were partially offset by permanent store closures in the region.

Speaker 4: The region posted a break-even operating result, a $2 million improvement from last year.

And finally in our licensing segment royalty revenues increased 4% driven mainly by a strong increase in global selling of handbags segment operating.

Speaker 4: And finally, in our licensing segment, royalty revenues increased 4%, driven mainly by a strong increase in global selling of handbags.

Operating profit was $25 million, a slight increase from last year.

Speaker 4: Segment operating profit was $25 million, a slight increase from last year.

In the quarter total company gross margin contracted 320 basis points to 42, 5% about half of which was driven by currency headwinds.

Speaker 4: In the quarter, total company gross margin contracted 320 basis points to 42.5%, about half of which was driven by currency headwinds.

Also affecting gross margin was a higher mix of markdowns this quarter compared to last year, given last year's inventory scarcity.

Speaker 4: Also affecting gross margin was a higher mix of markdowns this quarter compared to last year, given last year's inventory scarcity.

Adjusted SG&A for the third quarter declined 5% to $211 million, including a favorable currency impact of $23 million compared to last year's expense level.

Speaker 4: Adjusted SG&A for the third quarter declined 5% to $211 million, including a favorable currency impact of $23 million compared to last year's expense level.

In addition to that currency impact performance based compensation accruals were significantly lower this year given last year's extremely strong performance against operating goals.

Speaker 4: In addition to that currency impact, performance-based compensation accruals were significantly lower this year, given last year's extremely strong performance against operating goals.

Partially offsetting these expense reductions were higher store selling expenses, given net new store growth since last year as well as labor cost pressures.

Speaker 4: Partially offsetting these expense reductions were higher store selling expenses given net new store growth since last year as well as labor cost pressures.

We also invested an additional variable expenses to support our wholesale growth.

For the quarter, our adjusted SG&A rate improved 130 basis points to 33, 4%.

Our third quarter adjusted operating profit was $58 million, 18% lower than last year and our adjusted operating margin was nine 1%, a 180 basis points lower than last Q3.

In the quarter, we recorded non operating net charges of $15 million.

These charges relate to the revaluation of certain of our foreign subsidiaries net assets and liabilities into U S dollars and the net charges to Mark our deferred compensation plan and served plant assets to market.

Our third quarter adjusted tax rate was 30% up modestly from last Q3's rate of 27%.

Adjusted EPS in the quarter was <unk> 44 per share versus last Q3's 62.

Moving now to the balance sheet.

We ended the third quarter with $170 million in cash compared to $391 million a year ago.

Our year over year cash position was impacted significantly by the $238 million of share repurchases executed in the last 12 months.

We ended the quarter with a total of $270 million of borrowing availability on our various global facilities. We made no open market share repurchases during the quarter, leaving a remaining share repurchase authorization at $62 million.

Inventories were $575 million up 19% in U S dollars and 33% in constant currency versus last year.

As Carlos mentioned, our additional inventory investment primarily reflects our strategy to order earlier this year to protect our business and support our partners as well as higher average unit costs, reflecting our investments in quality and sustainability and inflationary pressures as a supply chain appear to be recovering we expect to return to a more.

More traditional receipt plan and that this growth rate will moderate over the next few quarters.

Our receivables were $319 million, a 1% decrease versus last year's $321 million on a constant currency basis receivables increased about 14%.

For the first three quarters of this year capital expenditures were $72 million up from $41 million in the prior year, mainly driven by investments in Remodels, new stores and technology.

And one post Q3 development this month, our Russian minority interest partner exercised has put option related to our 30% interest in our Russian entity, where our business is profitable and has been performing well.

We have reviewed the various economic sanctions on Russia and have concluded that our pre sanction obligation to purchase the interest is not prohibited by the sanctions there.

Therefore, we expect to be able to proceed with the transaction, which we currently expect to take place by the end of the first quarter of next year.

Free cash flow for the first three quarters of this year reflects a net investment of $98 million versus $41 million in the prior year the change being mainly driven by this year inventory acceleration lower net cash earnings and higher capital spending offset by last year's impact of the tax.

Payment made associated with our IP transfer to Europe .

Today, We also announced that our board approved our quarterly dividend of 22 and a half cent.

At recent stock prices represents an annual yield over four 5%.

So now, let's talk about our fourth quarter outlook and how it will impact our full year.

Overall, our operating expectations for the balance of the year remain largely unchanged.

We expect areas of momentum such as Europe , Canada, and South Korea to continue with demand for the brand has been strong with traffic to our stores, increasing and higher AUR.

In the U S. We expect that traffic patterns. There will also continue and that consumers will remain more price sensitive with the effects of inflation affecting their spending habits.

We are planning assuming that currencies remain at roughly prevailing levels, which will weigh even further on this year's results most of that further headwind materialize already in the third quarter, most significantly with the large nonoperating mark to market charge, but currencies also further negatively impacted.

Our third quarter operating margin.

For the full year, we are adjusting our adjusted EPS outlook downward by 30.

Most of which relates to currencies plus the Q3 mark to market charge, we recorded for our deferred comp <unk> served plants.

The modest reduction to our full year adjusted operating margin outlook reflects the impact of currencies and an expectation that other companies inventory levels may result in a more promotional environment.

Therefore for the full year, we are now expecting revenue growth of nearly 2% in U S dollars and about 10, 5% in constant currency.

We expect full year operating margin of about nine 7% and full year adjusted EPS of $2 35.

For the fourth quarter, we assume U S. Dollar sales will decline about three 5%, but increase three 5% in constant currency, we expect fourth quarter operating margin of about 13, 2% and adjusted EPS of $1 32.

Lastly, I wanted to again highlight the impact of currencies on this year's financial outlook.

Based on our assumptions currencies will consume almost nine points of revenue growth almost $230 million.

They will further consume about 130 basis points of adjusted operating margin and $60 million.

Adjusted operating profit if we were to eliminate all of that all other things being equal our full year outlook would have instead been for sales growth of 10, 5% to reach well over $2 8 billion adjusted operating margin of around 11% and adjusted operating.

<unk> growth.

To exceed last year's $310 million and combining this year's currency mark to market charges with a $60 million operating profit headwind. The total currency impact would approach a $1 15 per share.

To reinforce Carlos this point, we are proud that in this challenging macroeconomic environment. We are delivering outstanding results. Unfortunately, those results are being severely masked by so much currency noise.

With that I'll conclude the company's remarks, and let's open up the call for your questions.

Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question. Please press zero one on your touch.

<unk> phone if you are using a speakerphone you need to pick up your handset first before pressing any numbers.

Once again to ask a question. Please press zero one on your Touchtone phone.

Our first question comes from Cory <unk> from Jefferies <unk> Company. Your line is now open.

Hi, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. So Carlos.

Hi, Corey.

Hi.

Demand for the brand.

Has been really strong with apps.

Absent any FX issues.

Robust growth. So maybe could you just talk about how the consumer is responding to some of the newness that you're flowing into stores what some of the inventory turns are looking like.

And how the general sentiment is.

The brand now versus maybe where we were.

At the beginning of the year and then just to piggyback off of that how do you think about the promotional environment as well as we look to the fourth quarter.

Okay. Thank you Corey.

Yes, I think.

What you are saying.

The case, we feel that the demand for the brand continues to strengthen and I should say the brands because we are seeing also.

If he can.

Commitment to the marciano product as well.

Just want to get.

As you know we have a very strong business in wholesale.

Especially in Europe , and this is it's always a good.

Benchmark for how the different collections have been accepted and embraced by our customer base because.

That based of clients and customers is very diverse we have several thousand accounts.

Normally that is a very good indicator of how the product has been accepted and we have seen.

Consecutive growth season, after season and that business and.

The customers continue to want more of that product being shipped.

Earlier.

Possible.

That allowed us to really increase our shipments this quarter and we feel that that is all being driven by what they see.

In their sale, so it's not about ordering more product.

But how the product is selling to the ultimate customers in their points of distribution. So we feel very good and then of course, we have a major presence with our retail stores and this includes not only what we're seeing in Europe at.

All over the World, we have over 1000 doors as you know that we control directly.

About almost 700 that are in the hands of.

Franchisees licensees.

Partners of ours and in those cases.

Of course, the behavior of the customer now considering how the different territories have.

Evolved after the pandemic is somewhat different depending on where you are in the world.

We are seeing that the product is being very well accepted.

We have.

A big.

The difference in the performance of the type of product that we have in the collections as you know.

<unk> brands and we can go from casual to dressy.

Which is something that we think is a huge benefit and a big differentiator in this marketplace and what we're seeing is that the dressy product is selling significantly better on accelerating.

Versus what we're seeing with it more of a casual part of the assortment, but that said.

Since we are very pleased with how the overall collection is being accepted both for men and women and guests on Marciano and then just the one.

One area that has been very strong for us and continues to be very strong and accelerating also is accessories US you know accessories is a big part of our collection and and.

And we are seeing.

Phenomenal outstand.

Outstanding performance with accessories, especially driven by handbags, but many other accessories items as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. There are also doing very well the newness I think is right on.

We have some areas that have not performed best plans, yet, but we think that this is primarily on the cold part of the assortment.

Whether it's outerwear, which we think is the collection of this year's phenomenon, but but we in this case, we think that the weather being a lot warmer than what you would expect for the time of the year.

It's impacting our has impacted our sellout and we feel that it's just a matter of the temperatures to change a little bit for us to start experiencing acceleration in those sales as well.

And then your.

With respect to inventory turns.

We are carrying more inventory than we think we can carry for the business.

Yes.

This has been absolutely.

Absolutely Doug.

Done intentionally.

We order inventory earlier to mitigate the supply chain issues that we were experiencing and.

As a result of that we are carrying some extra inventory, but when you look at our turnover. If you exclude that excess that we plan to remove from our core business for next year and we are working on that pretty.

Actively.

We think that inventory turns are pretty much in line with what we would expect and that is if that should happen like that because we are buying and we are ordering based on what we expect the customer demand is going to be for full price selling and not just we are not planning to buy.

Additional product to sell.

Promotional level so overall.

System and the process that we are using is accomplishing what we expect.

Your last well next to the last question was about the sentiment I think.

The overall sentiment.

For what we are seeing is definitely there is a lot of inventory in the marketplace and.

And I think that the customer is looking for price.

But just.

We feel that we're very fortunate because we have.

A product that is very unique for the marketplace and as a result, we can command.

A price that is.

Representative of our ticket price.

The promotional environment, we think as is.

Very active.

We're only driven by the.

What we see in terms of inventory ownership.

And we are trying to stay our course with our strategy and so far this is working definitely as you saw our margins did.

Impacted by the promotional activity in the third quarter, we are expecting that the same thing is going to happen in the fourth quarter within our outlook, but but we feel that we can continue to drive.

Margins that are significantly better than what we had pre COVID-19. So everything that we have done to transform the business model and pricing and how we are pricing goods and how we are selling those goods more foot price is working for us.

Dennis you want.

Okay.

Great. Thank you very helpful. Thanks, so much best of luck.

Okay. Thank you thank.

Thank you once again, if you'd like to ask a question. Please press <unk> one on your Touchtone phone.

And our next question comes from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group. Your line is now open.

Hi, Carlos and Dennis can you talk a little bit and unpack. The obviously, we have the current the currency impact and one in one bucket as you think about cotton prices and supply chain, how does that flow into the operating margin and the outlook as we frame 2023, and what does this mean in terms.

Thank you.

Yeah, Let me let me just address the outlook Dana as we said during our prepared remarks.

We expect to really give you a few.

Paul.

Just view of what we're seeing for next fiscal year, when we release, our fourth quarter numbers and <unk>.

That is going to happen in March of 2023 so.

Just we are obviously working on our plans and we will come back to you with a pool.

Explanation of how we see the year and so forth like we always do.

Dennis do you want to address the currency.

The currency impact as we've been saying all year is pretty significant.

And if you think about it in terms of how it sort of paces through through the year.

Europe I use that as the best benchmark.

Last year had just started to decline.

In the third quarter and this year it actually reached below below parity I think it got as low as <unk> 97.

So the third quarter, where we said as we just said in our prepared remarks.

Overall margin impact was 180 basis points, which was the same as the total operating margin that should be the most severe in the third quarter, assuming currencies remain at roughly prevailing levels.

The currency started to drop with the dollar started to strengthen towards the backend of last year actually.

The dollar has weakened a little bit <unk> into where we sit right now so that starts to narrow so all other things being equal some of that currency pressure.

Should should start to abate.

As long as the currencies stay roughly where they are.

And then Dana you also asked about.

Pricing and cost of products and so forth.

We saw significant significant spikes last year.

There was a significant issues with finding the product on the raw materials and so forth.

With all the <unk>.

Inflationary forces everywhere, we are seeing a more normalized environment.

We have done a lot to planned ahead and.

Just we worked on our calendars and we're still working on revising our calendars to be pretty much on top line and being able to.

Really offer.

Whenever the demand is there for it.

We have done a lot in fabric platforming. So then we have access to fabric on raw materials and this is impacting all of our businesses and we are very pleased that we have done. This because we are very well prepared and we are we have contracts that go well into next year and and then we have done a lot about.

Data. This is something that I think I mentioned during our previous call that just having access to data and being able to have visibility on to see what are the priorities at all points. During the development is something that is has helped us to really anticipate and react more effectively too.

What we need to service the business well.

It's just it's difficult to know exactly what's going to happen with cotton prices.

That's because all of these markets have been very dynamic.

But we I think we have done a good job in anticipating and trying to really set contracts, where we considered it prudent and also we are negotiating with.

With our vendors, especially those that are somewhat favor by the fact that we are still paying in dollars. So just trying to really take that opportunity to split the benefit that they are.

Experiencing.

So then our cost becomes a law.

Lower number.

For those areas.

So we.

We have done that with reasonable success.

One other point I'd make on the cost structure is there another element that's been impactful has been freight.

Airfreight last year with product delays, we are created a significant amount of inventory just to mitigate the delays and that drove significant cost increases last year, that's not happening this year because of the strategy to get product in earlier, so thats working working for us. So this year's airfreight usage is down significantly.

And on Ocean rates versus last year, those had been increasing significantly and thats been impacting our inventory costs and margins. This year, but more recently those rates have been falling we've contemplated improvement on our outlook just keep in mind that doesn't necessarily result in a big tailwind in margin for this.

Year, because it's got to roll through the inventories.

So that might be more impactful.

Into next year.

Thank you.

Thank you Dana thank.

Thank you and at this time, we have run out of time for further questions I will now turn the call back over to Carlos for closing comments.

Thank you well. Thank you everyone for your participation today and we are very excited about the holiday season, and we are confident in our long term future for sure. We are managing the business well, we think that we are focusing on what we can control and we are adapting the lend to lesley to this dynamic environment.

And you know it has been Super dynamic we wish you a very nice Thanksgiving and happy holidays to all of you and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

Have a great day and thank you again.

Thank you ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.

Okay.

Yeah.

Q3 2023 Guess? Inc Earnings Call

Demo

Guess?

Earnings

Q3 2023 Guess? Inc Earnings Call

GES

Tuesday, November 22nd, 2022 at 9:45 PM

Transcript

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