Q1 2023 Cemex SAB de CV Earnings Call
Speaker 1: Good morning. Welcome to the CEMEX first quarter 2023 conference call and webcast. My name is Bethany and I will be your operator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode.
Speaker 1: Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time you require operator assistance, please press star followed by zero and we will be happy to assist you. And now I will turn the conference over to Lucy Rodriguez, Chief Communications Officer. Please proceed. dunno
Speaker 2: Good morning. Thank you for joining us today for our first quarter 2023 conference call and webcast. We hope this call finds you in good health. I am joined today by Fernando Gonzalez, our CEO and Machir Al-Hafar, our CFO .
Speaker 2: As always, we will spend a few minutes reviewing the business and then we will be happy to take your questions. And now I will hand it over to Bernanda.
Speaker 3: Thanks, Lucie, and good day to everyone. I'm quite pleased with our first quarter growth achieved against a backdrop of difficult winter weather conditions in the U.S. and a strong priority here comparing some bays.
Speaker 3: Sales grew at a high single digit growth rate. Importantly, our largest regions accounting for 90% of sales are showing good momentum, growing at a high single or double digit rate. In terms of costs, for the first time since early 2021.
Speaker 3: there was evidence that inflationary pressure is easing.
Speaker 3: Cost of wood sold as a percent of sales was 1.1 percentage points lower than the prior year.
Speaker 3: Evida growth and the significant recovery margin was driven by pricing, easing cost headwinds, as well as incremental contributions from our growth investment and urbanization solution business.
Speaker 3: I believe this quarter marks an important inflection point in our mission to recover 2021 margins and compensate for the steep cost inflation we have experienced over the last two years.
Speaker 3: With our growth investment strategy paying off, we continue to pursue additional bolt-on margin enhancement projects primarily in developed markets.
Speaker 3: We close one aggregate transaction which will substantially boost our aggregate reserves for supply constrained markets.
Speaker 3: In climate action, we continue to achieve record CO2 reduction levels with a 3% decline versus first quarter of 2022. Data ratio stands now at 2.62 times, a sequential reduction of 0.22 times, and a 2.2 times reduction
Speaker 3: Finally, our return on capital remains in the double-digit area well above our cost of capital.
Speaker 3: Net sales rose high single digit due to our pricing strategy. EBITDA grew by 6% against a difficult prior year comp as inflation escalated in our business after the onset of the Ukraine war in late February , 2022. EBITDA growth largely reflects success of our pricing strategy, decelerating cost inflation as well as the incremental contribution of approximately.
Speaker 3: $40 million from our growth investment portfolio and expanding urbanization solutions business.
Speaker 3: While every dam margin is slightly lower than the prior year, it has shown significant improvement on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.
Speaker 3: Free cash flow after maintenance capex rose due primarily to higher fixed asset sales, increasing EBITDA as well as lower working capital and maintenance capex. The decline in consolidated cement volumes results from difficult weather conditions in the US, continued week-back cement demand in Mexico, and increased
Speaker 3: In the US, Europe , and Mexico, we expect recovery in volumes aligned to our guidance as we move through the rest of the year.
Speaker 3: Consolidated prices accelerated in the quarter with growth of between 18 and 20 percent.
Speaker 3: The pricing momentum was driven by all regions with Europe showing significant progress in recovering inflationary costs. Mid-single digit sequential price growth speaks to the strength of our first quarter pricing actions.
Speaker 3: We remain focused on managing costs with our energy diversification, supply chain, and climate action strategies. EBITDA growth is largely explained by the contribution of pricing over incremental costs, our growth investments, and growing urbanization solutions.
Speaker 3: This quarter shows considerable improvement versus prior quarters with pricing covering 132% of cost increases.
Speaker 3: allowing us for the first time to begin recuperating margins. Importantly, the cost inflation, while still elevated, is easing. I believe this quarter marks an important inflection point in our margin recovery efforts.
Speaker 3: Margin performance over the last two quarters have confirmed that we have turned the corner in our mission to recover 2021 margins after the unprecedented cost inflation of the last two years. We have seen margin improvements sequentially as well as year over year.
Speaker 3: This improvement is driven not only by pricing but also by easing inflationary cost headwinds.
Speaker 3: While we still have work in front of us, we strongly believe we will continue to see margin improvements over the next few quarters.
Speaker 3: In March,
Speaker 3: We published our seventh annual integrated report covering 2022, which details how our strategy, governance, ESG, and financial performance intersect to create value for all our stakeholders. 2022
Speaker 3: was a pivotal year in our sustainability journey.
Speaker 3: Our Virtua lower carbon concrete, launched less than 3 years ago, now accounts for 33% of concrete sales.
Speaker 3: We achieve our second consecutive year of record CO2 reduction driven by peak alternative fuel usage and a record low clinker factor.
Speaker 3: Our carbon reduction over the last 2 years was equivalent to what used to take us more than a decade to achieve. This performance convinced me that we could push our decarbonization targets using existing tools even further. As a result, we upgraded our 2030
Speaker 3: to society but that industry decarbonization is possible and transition will be profitable.
Speaker 3: I encourage you to access our integrated report on our website.
Speaker 3: EBITDA rose 34% with important growth in all four verticals. I would like to highlight our admixture business, the largest business within the performance materials vertical. Admixers are specialized chemicals used to enhance specific properties of construction materials such as water reduction, strength, setting time, carbon footprint, among others. They are important drivers of innovation and sustainability in the construction industry. The admixtures business has been experiencing outstanding growth.
Speaker 3: and in first quarter grew more than 60%. As a key contributor to our future in action agenda, we plan to continue expanding this highly-accurate business.
Speaker 2: EBITDA rose from the second consecutive quarter. EBITDA margin rose sequentially, 4.7 percentage points, the first sequential margin expansion in four quarters, and showed year-over-year improvement. The alternative fuel substitution rate reached a record in Mexico of approximately 42%, with some plants reaching levels of up to 77% in the quarter. Industry demand is improving, as bulk cement growth more than offset the decline in bagged product in the quarter.
Speaker 2: We estimate that industry cement volumes rose low single digit in a quarter. Our low single digit decline reflects market share loss in bagged cement as a consequence of our pricing strategy.
Speaker 2: We intend to recover this market share over the following quarters. Our bulk cement and ready-mix volumes continued to grow double-digit, while aggregate volumes rose mid-single-digit, reflecting the dynamism of formal construction in the country.
Speaker 2: The formal sector continues to benefit from near-shoring investments in border states and the Bajío region, tourism construction, and infrastructure projects.
Speaker 2: For 2023, we expect flat cement volumes with high single digit growth in readymix and head Glass Coll systemic
Speaker 2: In the US, despite significant weather challenges in most of our markets, as well as a strong first quarter 2022 comparison pace.
Speaker 2: EBITDA rose 15% to a record first quarter result.
Speaker 2: Volumes declined double digits primarily due to severe winter weather in much of our portfolio that significantly affected construction activity. We estimate the impact of weather conditions on cement volumes to explain approximately 60% of the decline. EBITDA on margins expanded, benefiting from higher prices and a lower level of imports. However, we still have more work to do to recover margins lost to substantial inflation.
Speaker 2: On the cost side, raw materials and energy continue to be the biggest headwind to margin. We should start to see the benefit of lower fuel prices, but do expect a continued headwind in the cost of electricity over the next few quarters. We closed the Atlantic Minerals Limited acquisition in late April , expanding our U.S. reserves by 20 percent and further strengthening our position in aggregate constrained markets such as Florida and along with southeastern seaboard.
Speaker 2: On the pricing side, first quarter price increases were successful, and additional price increases have been announced for the third quarter in most of our markets.
Speaker 2: Going forward, we remain optimistic that the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the CHIPS Act will be supportive of volumes. We are seeing an important boost in highway contract awards and have also seen the start of projects for onshoring and the redefinition of supply chain.
Speaker 2: According to the Financial Times, companies have announced roughly $204 billion in large-scale projects to boost U.S. semiconductor and clean tech production.
Speaker 2: This amount is almost double the announced spending commitments made in the same sectors in 2021 and nearly 20 times the amount of 2019.
Speaker 2: AMIA delivered strong financial results despite a tough comparative base and a challenging volume backdrop.
Speaker 2: Sales and EBITDA grew double digit, reflecting a successful pricing and carbon strategy, as well as a large contribution from our growth investment portfolio and urbanization solutions business.
Speaker 2: EBITDA margin declined slightly. As a result of first quarter price announcements, pricing momentum continued, with regional sequential increases of between 8 and 10% for all products.
Speaker 2: and in Europe with sequential increases of between 9 and 14 percent.
Speaker 2: Despite the weak demand environment, Europe continued to show strong cement pricing traction with prices up 35% year over year.
Speaker 2: EBITDA in Europe grew 46% while margin rose 2.5 percentage points.
Speaker 2: reflecting not only our pricing efforts and carbon strategy, but also the strong contribution from our growth investments.
Speaker 2: Europe has been very active in executing our growth strategy, particularly in the areas of decarbonization, urbanization solutions, and expanding aggregate reserves.
Speaker 2: Our European operations continue to lead the way on climate action and are well on the way to achieving EU emissions reduction targets of at least a 55% decline by 2030. These efforts paid off in 2022 with the decline in our carbon emissions reduction targets.
Speaker 2: market in the world.
Speaker 2: For 2023, based on better than expected first quarter cement volume performance, we are now expecting a mid-single digit decline for cement. We continue to be optimistic over Europe's medium-term outlook, supported by public and
Speaker 2: private projects worth more than 2 trillion euros related to transportation, climate adaptation, and energy reconfiguration, as well as onshoring investment opportunities.
Speaker 2: In the Philippines, cement volumes declined due to continued macro challenges and bad weather, as well as the tough comparison base.
Speaker 2: EBITDA margin was impacted primarily by higher energy costs, which we are expecting to gradually ease in coming quarters.
Speaker 2: For this year, we now expect cement volumes to decline low single digits.
Speaker 2: For more information, please see our CHP Quarterly Earnings, which will be available this evening.
Speaker 2: In Middle East and Africa, EBITDA grew double digit, mainly driven by Egypt, which showed strong pricing and margin performance.
Speaker 2: Net sales in the South Central America and Caribbean region grew 4% driven by a disciplined pricing strategy.
Speaker 2: Cement volumes remained pressured by weak bag cement demand, while bulk cement continued to grow, supported by the formal sector, mainly in the infrastructure and tourism segments.
Speaker 2: The decline in EBITDA and EBITDA margin resulted primarily from higher energy and maintenance costs and lower cement volumes.
Speaker 2: We expect energy costs in the region to ease in the following quarters.
Speaker 2: In Columbia, cement volumes decline mid-single digit, largely attributable to a slow start of the year in formal construction activity and weak bagged cement demand.
Speaker 2: Cement pricing increases picked up some momentum with a double-digit sequential increase.
Speaker 2: In the Dominican Republic, cement volumes declined due to a drop in retail cement demand, while Ready Mix volumes posted a double-digit growth.
Speaker 2: mainly related to a recovery in the formal sector.
Speaker 2: In April , CLH shares were delisted from the Columbian Stock Exchange. Further information on CLH can be found on CLH's website.
Speaker 2: And now I will pass the call to Machir to review our financial developments.
Speaker 4: Thank you, Lucy, and good day to everyone.
Speaker 4: As Fernando mentioned, we are very pleased with our first quarter performance showing growth in revenues, operating results, and free cash flow generation.
Speaker 4: The increase in EBITDA speaks to the success of our pricing strategy, coupled with decelerating cost inflation and contributions from our growth strategy and urbanization solutions.
Speaker 4: Our sequential margin expanded by almost 2 percentage points, while our slight year-over-year margin decline was the smallest in five quarters. We expect improving margins going forward.
Speaker 4: As Fernando mentioned, we have seen two consecutive quarters of decline in cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales. The decline has been driven by easing energy cost inflation, lower imports, and pricing traction.
Speaker 4: Energy costs remained high with fuel increasing 32% and electricity up 16% on a per ton of cement basis.
Speaker 4: Recent market prices for PETCO, still our largest fuel source, are the lowest level since August 2021, and it bodes well for fuel costs in the back half of the year. In Europe , one of the hardest hit electricity markets last year, we delayed locking in contracts and have been able to take advantage of...
Speaker 4: coupled with a lower investment in working capital and maintenance capex, delivered incremental free cash flow of $120 million dollars versus the prior year.
Speaker 4: As regards working capital, working capital days increased by 8 versus the prior year.
Speaker 4: This increase is due primarily to the inflationary impact on inventories.
Speaker 4: The credit quality and turnover of our receivables remains at a healthy level.
Speaker 4: Net income was $225 million, 14% higher than the prior year.
The increase was driven primarily by better operational results and a positive foreign exchange effect mainly due to the appreciation of the Mexican peso.
We executed a series of transactions that strengthened and simplified our capital structure, further aligned our financial strategy with our sustainability agenda, and accelerated our path to investment grade.
In order to support our Future in Action program in March, we updated our green financing framework to reflect our alignment to SPTI's 1.5 degree scenario and subsequently issued $1 billion in green subordinated perpetual notes.
As part of the Green Framework commitments, CEMEX will invest an amount equal to the net proceeds in eligible Green projects between 2021 and 2027.
These notes, similar to those issued in 2021, are considered equity under IFRS and benefit from a temporary 50% equity treatment from rating agencies, resulting in a reduction of leverage of approximately 0.4 times in the quarter.
Through this issuance, we are able to invest in ROI positive projects that lower our carbon footprint.
at a cash cost equivalent to our senior debt, while at the same time immediately improving our capital structure and bringing us closer to an investment grade rating.
With this transaction on a performa basis, 50% of our debt is now linked to Sustainability KPIs, essentially reaching our 2025 target two years ahead of time.
To better position our debt maturity profile for the medium term, two weeks ago we called our $1 billion 7-3 8's bond due in 2027.
To better position our debt maturity profile for the medium term, two weeks ago we called our $1 billion 7 and 3 eighths bond due in 2027. The full redemption should take place on June 5th.
This leaves a two-year window in 2027 and 2028 with virtually no debt maturities.
We completed the tender offer and delisting process for Cemex flat dam holdings, increasing our ownership to approximately 99.5%, and a tender offer for shares of Cemex Holdings Philippines, increasing our ownership to approximately 90%.
We continue with the firm commitment towards strengthening our balance sheet with the goal of achieving investment grade in the short term.
As you know, we are just one notch away from our goal. And now back to you Fernando. We are pleased with the momentum of first quarter.
We have made some minor adjustments in regional volume guidance, which you can find in the appendix. Given that the quarter represents the smallest EBITDA contribution in the year, we will revisit our EBITDA and free cash flow element guidance after our second quarter results.
However, we acknowledge that cost, effects, and pricing movements to date provide upside support to our EBITDA guidance given in February .
And now back to you Lucy. Before we go into our Q&A session I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements we make today are based on our current knowledge of the markets in which we operate and could change in the future due to a variety of factors beyond our control.
In addition, unless the context indicates otherwise, all references to pricing initiatives, price increases or decreases refer to prices for our products.
And now we will be happy to take your questions. In the interest of time and to give other people an opportunity to participate, we kindly ask that you limit yourself to only one question.
If you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your touch tone telephone.
If your question has been answered or you wish to withdraw your question, press star followed by 2.
If your question has been answered or you wish to withdraw your question, press star followed by two. Press star one to begin.
And the first question comes from Gordon Lee from BTG-Paxwell. Gordon?
Hi, good morning everybody. Thank you very much for the call and for the opportunity to ask questions. I have just one simple question Fernando, which is, you know, it's obviously impressive how you, and I would say the industry in general, but I think to a large degree led by you, has been able to implement your pricing strategy successfully in what are pretty difficult conditions.
I was wondering how you feel about that going forward given the combination of sluggish volumes in many of your markets. The fact that it looks like cost headwinds maybe are declining as you've said or those headwinds are less of a complication. And finally that you have managed to recover so much profitability. How
How do you feel about that sort of conversation with clients and that dynamic going forward in terms of being able to pursue further price increases? Thank you.
Sure, thanks Gordon. Let me start by commenting again that our objective is to gain back 2021 margins.
Margins in terms of price minus cost, meaning to be sure that we are going to be fully recovering the impact of this period of very high inflation. I'm referring to the very high inflation in our cost structure.
And we have done progress. We started by recovering
input cost inflation in dollar terms and now we have already started as you saw, we saw an inflection point moving from there to recover margins and we will continue that path. Now, you know that pricing strategies are mid to long term strategies and of course we have to...
permanently evaluate the implications of our market position because of the strategies we put in place. Now, how confident are we in the success of this strategy? I think after the results we've seen, we are very confident that we will continue the process.
again to gain our 2021 margins. We have seen and you can see examples of radio last year and this first quarter. For instance.
the impact of weather in the US didn't derail our pricing strategy in the US. So we think that will continue happening. And if you remember, Lazier, in Mexico, there was also a decline in the market and we managed to...
put in place, again, the piece of the pricing strategy needed last year to recover input cost in our margins. So I think we will continue with the same objective. It is taking time. Our products, ready-mix, cement aggregates, historically, when there are periods of high inflation, it takes...
in March, if we take that level of pricing, and even if we don't get any pricing increases further throughout the year, although we believe we will, we have pricing increases in several of our markets, but that in itself is a 15% tailwind going forward, which is very important. And you know,
If you take a look at that tailwind in Mexico or EMEA or the US, that's close to a double-digit pricing increase tailwind that we're experiencing. And the markets continue to be tight. In the US, we reacted very quickly by reducing imports as you have seen.
We reduced imports by almost 45%. We have a very tight logistics operation there and I think they've done a terrific job in managing that situation. And so you know close to 90% of our volumes repriced in the first quarter which speaks very you know very well to our ability to continue with that momentum during the rest of the year as Fernando mentioned.
Okay, thank you Gordon. And the next question comes from Adrian Huerta from JP Morgan. Adrian.
Hi, thank you. Lucio, hi, Marjor, Fernando. My question is related to the US outlook. We are now guiding for a mid-single digit decline in volumes for all products.
versus low single digits before. So my question is if this is mainly related to the first quarter that was pretty much weather related or if you are seeing larger weakness versus previous views that you had. Can you say what do you expect on demand from each one of the segments and which stage should be?
performing better and which states should be performing weaker during this year? Yeah. Fernando, would you like me to go ahead and take that question? Please go ahead.
So at the end, I mean, we're actually quite constructive about the US business. And yes, the adjustment in volume outlook was primarily predicated on the weather that we have seen in California, Arizona, Texas and parts of Colorado. We had terrific weather, as you know, snow, wet weather and all of that.
The interesting thing is when we take a look at the recovery in volumes in April , we see quite a positive recovery. It's not 100% there, of course, because the ground is still wet and there's still some weather patterns, but we are definitely seeing some recovery from that perspective.
I mean, in terms of the drivers of demand in the US, clearly the strongest driver is the industrial sector. I think that there we are seeing definitely a lot of benefits from the CHIPS Act, from the Inflation Reduction Act, from the just-
beginning of spending, meaningful spending under the highway bill that we have in place. So I think that on the infrastructure side, which represents 50% of our business, you know, we're quite constructive looking forward with the rest of the year. The industrial side is extremely positive and it's benefiting also from a lot of the spending that we take a look at.
It's semiconductor, it's green tech, it's battery manufacturing, it's electronic, you know, electric vehicles. The area that we're seeing weakness is residential. But again, I think that we need to be very careful when we take a look at residential on a national level. I think it's very important to take a look at it.
residential in our markets, California, Arizona, Texas, Florida. There, the household formation is, I can't remember exactly, but it's an X factor higher than the rest of the national household formation. And because people are moving into those states.croft
or very attractive are not willing to sell their houses and put them on the market. So what we're seeing is a very, very tight inventory in existing homes for sale, and that's forcing more demand.
mostly multifamily construction in the markets that we're in. So, and then when we take a look at, you know, our customers, our, you know, contractors, developers, builders, you know, we hear from them that their order books are quite healthy going forward. So we're quite.
We're quite constructive and we think that while we did adjust our expectations for volumes because of the weather factor, I think the pricing looks like it should continue with very good momentum in the US.
I don't know if that answers your question. If there's a follow up, I'll be more than happy to address it. If maybe I could just add one point, Mahir. The guidance that we're giving is not assuming that in this year we can actually recover those lost volumes to weather up the first quarter. And the major reason for that is because of tightness still in the construction markets. It's the ability of home builders to be able to find workers.
There's still shortages out there in the industry, which I think continues to speak to the resilience of residential in particular.
I'm sorry, Adrian. I don't know if you have anything else. Thank you, Michael. Okay. Thank you. The next question comes from the webcast from Paul Roger from Exane BMP Paraivat. I'd rather I say that again first, because I never got sick on my myve vote.
The IRA includes provisions to help states tighten building regulations and the federal government test new green products. To what extent could this boost demand for ranges like Virtua and give Cemex a competitive advantage?
Yeah, well, if I take this one.
I think what we have seen during last year and this year is that
the different levels of authorities are exploring, thinking, and already changing the way products, cementitious products, or ready-mixed are...
use in the market. So we've been transforming several of our cement plants to the products that are already permitted in the market in the U.S. limestone cement, pool for lunch, lac cement, composite cement.
And definitely this flexibility or this strength to, for the U.S. to move forward into composite cement.
very positive, it is the
the critical way or the most powerful way to being able to produce lower carbon products in the States because these products do require...
proportionally less quantities of clinker. Now how can that impact
the demand for our virtual family of products, it is impacting it already. By now, about...
50% of the cement we sell do have EPDs, meaning certificates that our customers get evaluated or certified by third parties.
and that is increasing the demand of these products. We do believe that this is a trend that will continue evolving. It will be very positive for us, for the industry, and for the consumer. By the way, by the end of the year, we are already prepared.
but by the end of the year, 100% of our virtual cement sold in the market will have these certificates or EPDs certified by a third party and in the case of ReadyMix, about 75% of those volumes will be already certified. So in summary, this is a very positive...
year, 100% of our virtual cement sold in the market will have these certificates or EPDs certified by a third party and in the case of ReadyMix about 75% of those bonus will be already certified. So in summary this is a very positive trend.
The US is moving towards the practices known already for some time in regions like Europe or other parts of the world in this type of cement.
Thank you, Fernanda. The next one question comes from Vanessa Turoga from Credit Suisse. Vanessa? Right.
Hi Lucy, hi President behind my care. Hi Vanessa. Thank you for taking my question. Hi. I was wondering if you can tell us a bit of where you see the main risks for keeping the paid sequential expansion of margins that we saw.
So just anything that you could highlight in terms of the risk. Thanks.
Thanks Vanessa. Let me start, maybe Margot or Lucy.
cannot come to the question, but let me start by saying that
The pricing dynamics are very local. They have to do with the
with competitive dynamics. They have to do in this case and in the last few years
All pricing strategies have to do with the impulse cost inflation. I mean, why increase in prices 20%, 25% if your inflation is not at that level? So I think what you can expect is...
for prices, I say it in the previous question, for prices to increase as much as needed to recover our 2021 margins.
I said in the previous question, for prices to increase as much as needed to recover our 2021 margins. We are getting close to it.
And now we see that when we define, when we establish this objective, we should have been more precise because now it is clearer that we are referring mainly to the difference of price, meaning the spread, price minus cost impact.
In the last year and a half or so, the main contributor to inflation recuperation, margin recuperation has been pricing. And now you saw because of the...
inflation point in our cost base, I think from now on or starting in 2023 to pricing strategy will have the positive contribution of a decline in inflation increases. We are not still in a deflationary type of...
context but definitely the pace of inflation is materially decreasing. So we have to continue evaluating our pricing strategy considering the recovery of our margins as we mentioned.
the impact of the price increases that we have done recently and last year. As Mahir said, even if we don't increase prices today, prices of 23 will be 15% higher than 22. We also have to consider the, you know,
The level of inflation, again, we see a lower impact because of inflation. We hope and we expect that to be a trend for the rest of the year, but nothing is completely sure, but we do hope that will be the case. And also, very important, a very different market per market.
to recover them, margins of 21 and we will try to recover them. We are close to it, the trends are positive so hopefully in the next few carats we will be updating achievements in that regard.
Yeah and if I can add Fernando, I mean, as Fernando said, the North Star for us is recovering 21 margins, right? If you take a look at where we are as of the first quarter, we continue to lag.
you know, 21 margins, even if you adjust for the volume effect, right? I mean, because there is a huge, you know, there's a very important volume effect that has taken place. And, you know, we're still probably a good, you know, point in a fraction below where we'd like to be just for the quarter. So I think there's a lot more work to be done there.
Now, what could, you know, the question is, you know, is there something that could risk that? And I mean, frankly, when we take a look at the input costs, you know, we're seeing, obviously, still rising fuels, whether it's, you know, fuels or electricity, but everything is decelerating. If we take a look at petco, which is our largest, you know, by percentage of fuel that we use.
It's almost half of what it used to be at its peak, for instance, and we see that declining a little bit more during the course of the year. So we are reasonably confident that that gap between total cost against the price effect should continue to improve, again, barring any kind of material adverse change from the market there. Now, in terms of...
In terms of maintenance, I mean, yes, we do have some, you know, incremental maintenance in the year, but that's because, you know, we have more operating assets. I mean, as you know, CPN, we have the Tepeyaca expansion, we have additional expansions in the Dominican Republic.
The US has a very important operating efficiency program in place. You know most of our plants are running at very high capacity utilization, and of course there's a little bit of inflation, right? I mean that is taking place so so but but that's totally expected in in our operating results. We are not expecting at least again today
We don't think there's anything extraordinary that should change the dynamics of profitability going into the next three quarters of the year and our expectations that things should get better. And I don't know if I missed anything. Lucy, if you want to add anything to that.
No, I think you got it. Thank you very much. Thank you both. And thank you, Vanessa. The next question comes from the webcast from Anne Milne from Bank of America.
Could you please walk us through the changes in the composition of Cemex's debt structure between year end 2022 and first quarter 23? Also, how are you thinking about this going forward? It looks like you used some of the proceeds of the perpetual and you also reduced bond and bank debt agreements. Did you buy back any bonds during first quarter? No percentage change going forward.
ahead of the, you know, putting out the call. And then of course, we put out the call a couple of weeks ago. And that should be done by June 5, as I mentioned in my remarks. Now, in terms of the, you know, the debt stack structure, you know, as we speak, giving pro forma effect to the call of the 7 and 3 aides.
gives us a breakdown of about, you know, a third of our debt being bank debt 35%. As of the first quarter, again, pro forma the call of the seven and three eighths. The high yield notes, another third, about 32%. Leases are about 12%.
And then of course we have the subnotes, which are, again, I'm talking about the whole debt stack, including the subnotes, which of course, under IFRS is considered to be equity. But if you include that in there, that represents 20% of the debt stack. I don't expect this...
allocation to change that much. We do have a very interesting, with the call of the bond, we will have a very nice window in 27, 28 and beyond to do some liability management, pushing out maturities. Whether we will make major changes between how much we take from banks versus the...
frankly and pricing has been very attractive and as you know our spreads have dropped as a result of the deleveraging process.
So we're going to wait and see and take a look. We're not in a hurry. Fortunately, we've got tons of liquidity that we're sitting on. And so we're going to be, you know, taking a look at the markets and see. But I don't expect major changes in the structure of our debt stack.
Thank you, Maher. And the next question also comes from the webcast from Francisco Chavez from BBVA.
Can you explain your margin improvement in Mexico? How sustainable is it to maintain that level or continue improving it? Is this margin level already incorporating the impact on electricity due to the expiration of some contract? Can you explain your margin improvement in Mexico?
Fernando, would you like me to take that?
Yeah, I think the impact of the re-pricing of our electricity sources is being partially reflected as we speak and has been. So that's definitely there.
I think the issue that is likely to more positively impact us going forward is the volume situation, right? I mean, we have to wait and see what happens in the first quarter as Lucy mentioned in her remarks that, you know, our volumes are down by 3% primarily because of a tactical view.
or position that we took on the bagged cement business. But very important to highlight is the whole market was actually, if we estimate, up about 3%. So the supply demand dynamics in Mexico should be fairly good going through the rest of the year.
and driven by industrial, very importantly, followed by infrastructure and then housing. As you saw, the volumes in readymix have been way outstripping the volumes of cement, which is an indicator of what's happening to the underlying economy and where the construction activity is taking place.
So I really don't see, you know, pricing should continue to be fairly good. The tailwind in Mexico's pricing is quite positive. It's in the double digits. So, you know, I don't see the margin situation kind of deteriorating as we go through the rest of the year.
Thanks, Maher. And the next question comes from Carlos Parilong from Bank of America. Thank you, Lucy. Congratulations on the results. My question was answered on the cost side, but I just wanted to take the opportunity.
I did not hear well the announced price increases for the second half. If there is any specific number in the US that you could comment?
In the US, we are expecting in terms of pricing, a, let me see.
Do you want me to do it, Maher? Yeah, would you please? Yeah, I'm trying to have you. Sure. Okay. We have announced high single digit price increase in all states with the exception of California and Arizona. So, you know, this would be about 65% or so of our total volumes. And this is for July . So it's the beginning of July .
The January pricing increase was delayed, so it happened depending on customers and region. It happened somewhere from March to April in general, but it did take place. So this would be a second pricing increase. Well, for all the other markets, it's a second. We are not raising prices in California a second time in July .
The pricing increase was delayed. So it happened depending on customers and region, it happened somewhere from March to April in general, but it did take place. So this would be a second pricing increase. Well, for all the other markets, it's a second. We are not raising prices in California a second time in July . Okay? All right.
Thank you, and obviously some of that reflects the weather issues that have taken place in first quarter, and California was obviously the hardest hit, the state, from a weather perspective. Okay, great. And I think we have time for one last question, which is coming from Nick Lippman from Morgan Stanley . Nick, please go ahead. Nick, this question is being being asked for your own Communities sensitisation answer. Sorry, Nick.
Thank you very much. Congrats on the numbers. I have one question pertaining to maintenance and import in relationship to the US market. Clearly an area where you guys have asymmetric information. So we saw a lot of that. Yes, last year in 2022. Can you talk a little bit about how we should think about
Sort of extraordinary maintenance in the US market and the levels of imports that we could expect in this year for the rest of the year. And Mark had a comment about a 45% decline in imports. Was that a year on year first quarter comment or quarter on quarter? Or was it a forward-looking 23 or 22 kind of comment? Thank you very much.
Yeah, I mean, and help me out, Lucy here, if I miss out on any, I mean, the drop in import volumes was a year-over-year drop first quarter. And of course, that's a very, I mean, you know, very important contributor also to improvement in margins in the US business because.
You're essentially dropping away volumes that are less profitable, but profitable nevertheless. And I think that was a very good reaction from our operators there to redirect and or try to change the timing of receipt of those shipments to coincide with what's happening, particularly in California, I would say, because of the weather patterns that we've already seen.
talked about there. And how is that likely to evolve during the rest of the year? I mean, frankly, we need to take a wait and see attitude to see what happens to weather patterns and how demand is going to... But we have a very robust logistics and supply chain management process and we don't expect that.
I mean, this was managed by us. This drop was a managed drop. It was not something that happened because of exogenous factors. So our expectation is that we will continue to positively manage that situation and to the extent that we need to modulate imports either upwards or downwards based on supply-demand dynamics, we will do that during the rest of the year. It should not be an issue. Now the other question you had was – I'm sorry.
Can you remind me again? Yeah, I think it's just very linked. If you're thinking about doing any extraordinary maintenance in any of your plants this year, and have lower domestic U.S. production, and import more for that reason. I mean, I don't know if I would go ahead Lucy, go ahead.
You know, our expectation is that we will have increases in overall maintenance costs, nothing exceptional this year, but I would remind you that the timing of it on a quarterly basis is going to be important because second quarter of last year we had quite a bit of maintenance that was consolidated in that quarter.
Very different quarter to quarter, nothing exceptional, about a 10% increase, which is kind of in line with the consolidated level in terms of incremental maintenance. Now, of course, you can't control for outages that may occur, but I think it's a good indication of where we expect the year to be. And also, I mean, I would say, you know, in the maintenance side.
for the whole for all of the company. I mean, again, nothing extraordinary in the US. I mean, inflation. I mean, there is definitely inflation in spare parts. There's inflation in labor. I mean, there's I mean, so so if you see a slight uptick in maintenance, it's not because there's anything extraordinary. It's just part of the inflation effect. I mean, you know.
Okay, Nick. I think we're done with that. So we appreciate you joining us today for our first quarter webcast and conference call. If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact Investor Relations. And we look forward to seeing you again on our second quarter webcast that will take place on July 27th. Many thanks. Thank you.