Q4 2022 Avient Corp Earnings Call
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
[music].
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to AVX Corporation's webcast to discuss the company's 2022 fourth quarter and full year results. My name is Catherine and I will be your operator for today.
This time all participants are in a listen only mode. We will have a question and answer session. Following the company's prepared remarks. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes I would now like to turn the call over to Joe The Salvo, Vice President Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please proceed.
Thank you Catherine and good morning, and good morning to everyone joining us on the call today.
Before beginning we'd like to remind you that statements made during this webcast may be considered forward looking statements within the meaning of the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
Forward looking statements give current expectations or forecast of future events and are not guarantees of future performance. They.
They are based on management's expectation and involve a number of business risks and uncertainties.
Any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in or implied by forward looking statements.
Please refer to the industrial presentation for this webcast for a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ.
During the discussion today, the company will use both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.
Please refer to the presentation posted on <unk> website, where the company describes the non-GAAP financial measures and provides a reconciliation for historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.
Joining me today is our chairman President and Chief Executive Officer, Bob Patterson.
And senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Jimmy bags.
I'll hand, the call over to Bob.
Thanks, Joe and good morning today, we reported fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA of $107 million and adjusted EPS of 42 cents.
Orders were slightly better than expected in Europe , and Asia, and we saw an uptick in December orders for composites, including dynamic used in personal protection applications.
This in combination with better margins led to adjusted EPS.
$2 69 for the year, which exceeded our prior guidance of $2 60.
That being said the fourth quarter was certainly a challenging one as global demand conditions and inventory destocking.
Impacted nearly every industry and region, resulting in a year over year decline in EPS.
We focused on controlling costs and reducing working capital during the quarter, we generated $120 million of free cash flow ending the year with total free cash $290 million.
We put this extra cash to work by paying down an additional $200 million of variable rate debt.
That debt to EBITDA leverage ended at two nine times, which is below our previous expectations of ending the year at 3.1.
This is really important is the strength of our balance sheet will be an asset while we navigate through these uncertain times, we have no near term debt maturities and expect to deliver strong free cash flow in 2023.
And an objective to keep leverage below three times for the foreseeable future.
Despite the challenges in the second half of the year I'm incredibly proud of what we accomplished in 2022.
We completed two transformational deals with the acquisition of Dynamo and the sale of our distribution business.
These enabled us to significantly increase the size of our composites platform, which is a key growth driver for the company.
Allowed us to strengthen our balance sheet by paying down debt.
An improved total company EBITDA margins to 16% the highest in company history.
Growth in investment in composites has been a significant part of our transformation.
In the early years, we invested in promising technologies as well as commercial resources.
Span the potential of the next generation of wood glass and metal replacement.
Often for smaller niche and yet underserved markets and customers.
Our reach and applications expanded from outdoor high performance to electrical components and composites for five G fiber optic cables.
With <unk>, we certainly more than double down.
We're the world's strongest fiber, we added market, leading capabilities and personal protection marine and sustainable infrastructure and composites now makes up over half of the RCM segment.
This really has been a deliberate journey to acquire technologies that expand the breadth of our products.
<unk> flexible tapes and panels engineered fibers that provide design freedom and world class strength.
These applications offer our customers sustainable solutions.
By providing stronger lighter and more durable materials.
Benefits include increasing longevity, reducing energy use and lowering carbon emissions.
While also improving human health and safety.
The following slide highlights the performance of our composites platform over the last six years with dynamic showing pro forma in 2022.
Clearly a significant increase in contribution from these technologies.
Which has underpinned our broader transformation over the last 15 years.
That specialty journey began in 2006.
It involved the sale of more cyclical and commodity type businesses and.
And investing in specialty technologies that deliver greater value to our customers.
The result has been a substantial expansion of EBITDA margins and adjusted EPS.
Another important driver for us has been our increased investment in sustainable solutions.
Avian strives for leadership positions in each of our four PS of sustainability.
Measure ourselves against top tier standards centers, such as ACC responsible care and the UN global compact and we have set aggressive 2030 sustainability goals with action plans behind each.
The positive strides we have been making in this sense been recognized by leading institutions.
Rating agencies, and our third party organizations.
You can see some of our current scores listed here are placing us in the top tier of our industry.
We were proud to be named one of America's most responsible companies and Newsweek annual listing.
Out of 2000 companies avian ranked 22 lots.
To be clear at Avion, we don't just invest in sustainability, because it's the right thing to do for people and our planet, we investments sustainability, because it drives growth growth.
And we also invest in our culture by focusing on safety embracing diversity inclusion and developing our associates.
And actively engaging in the communities, where we live and work.
These attributes create a culture, where people are proud to work for ABB.
This is validated through our annual employee engagement surveys administered by the great place to work Institute.
In the fourth quarter, we conducted our latest.
I'm very proud that we were again certified as a great place to work achieving the highest employee engagement scores in the history of the company.
And this survey included our newest associates from the protective materials business, which is really just another point of validation that our integration efforts are going very well.
I'm sharing this with you today, because we shouldn't underestimate the importance of culture.
I believe culture is everything, especially in uncertain times like we face today.
Companies with a strongest cultures are better positioned to navigate a recession and come out on the other side, even better and Thats, what we plan to do.
Now I'll turn it over to Jamie to provide some additional details on our 2022 results.
And provide our initial outlook for 2023, and then I'll provide some closing comments.
Bob the strength of our culture has certainly been an asset, especially as we have grown through significant acquisitions. It's the foundation of how we execute our strategy and stay the course, even when the macro environment is challenging.
As Bob shared earlier the fourth quarter ended are slightly ahead of our projections.
That being said demand was down in just about every region.
<unk> in Ukraine, and concerns about energy availability negatively impacted consumer sentiment in Europe , China.
China was constrained by zero code of policy and while the government relax its policy during the fourth quarter the region has yet to recover.
Literally rising interest rates and inflation have further weakened demand.
The EBITDA bridge shown here highlights the negative impact of lower demand as well as higher energy costs and negative foreign exchange.
Were partially offset by the net benefit of our pricing actions a reduction in SG&A cost as well as synergies associated with the Clarient color acquisition.
Free cash flow generation has been an enabler for a company with this year being no exception.
Slide shows our historical free cash flow generation the bars on the chart represents free cash flow dollars, while the blue dots represents <unk> free cash flow conversion percentages.
For comparative purposes, we also added the free cash flow conversion percentage for the S&P 500, and the Green line.
The data illustrates that we consistently generate strong free cash flow in any macroeconomic environment and there continues to be an upward trend.
Looking specifically at 2022 disciplined working capital management resulted in a $120 million of free cash flow during the quarter and over $290 million for the full year. This has allowed us to quickly delever to below three times, providing us with a strong balance sheet to navigate the year ahead.
Our performance during the year was really a tale of two half we started the year with good momentum coming off a record 2021, but as we entered the second half the weakening global economy and headwinds from FX resulted in full year earnings of $3 <unk> slightly.
Slightly better than the prior year, excluding the negative impact of foreign exchange, we grew sales and EBITDA in the mid single digits and increased EPS by 9%.
Both segments contributed to the growth in sales and earnings year over year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange.
Topline growth was slightly less in SCM and that had a larger exposure to Europe and virtually all of our import sales into Russia that ceased in 2022 were color applications.
Color was able to increase EBITDA, 4% year over year, driven by pricing excellence as well as lower operating costs associated with the clearing color synergies.
<unk> EBITDA grew 2%, excluding foreign exchange as growth in composites, and improving mix was able to offset lower demand in consumer applications and higher energy costs in Europe .
This next slide puts into perspective for the full year EPS impacts of foreign exchange translation exiting import sales in Russia, and normalizing demand in outdoor high performance applications. As you can see each of these factors had a meaningful influence on the year.
Starting at the top of the list our foreign exchange exposure is primarily driven by the euro which traded at below a dollar for several months in the back half of the year.
Further our import sales into Russia of approximately $25 million annually essentially ceased as I mentioned previously.
The combination of these items plus the normalization of certain outdoor high performance applications were offset by solid underlying performance in the business segments.
Earlier, we showed you an EBITDA bridge from a Q4 perspective. This scheduled mirrors that format. So you can see those same factors on a full year basis.
Majority of the decline in demand occurred late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter.
What's most impressive about this bridge driver is the magnitude of the raw material inflation, we experienced during the year and the impact of significant wage and energy inflation.
What you'll find is that we more than cover these extraordinary cost with pricing initiatives that began early.
In fact, we have more than covered inflation since the start of 2021 and this focus on commercial excellence has enabled us to realize a net benefit which lessened the impact of lower demand. You will also see significant benefits from the synergies associated with the current color acquisition as well as cost control initiatives.
Let's now turn to 2023, we are assuming recent demand trends continue into the first half of this year, while energy costs have moderated in Europe , we believe longer term fears about the war in Ukraine, and the future energy availability will weigh on consumer sentiment for the foreseeable future.
We think it is a positive that China is in the process of reopening but that has brought complications of its own with respect to an increase in COVID-19 infections and uncertainty about how businesses will pick up after following the lunar new year.
It is also a positive that inflation in the U S is moderating and it appears that the fed is slowing the pace of interest rate hike.
The recent jobs report is also a reflection of the strength of the economy, but it is a lagging indicator, which doesn't reflect the myriad of recently off announcements made by many companies.
How certain customers in certain industries respond to these changing market dynamics remains to be seen and likely to be bumpy as the fed tries to talk lately in the economy.
All of the above factor into our first half modeling, which has sales and corresponding bottom line results below the prior year, we expect first quarter sales of $845 million and adjusted EPS of <unk> 55 per share.
Our second half modeling assumes modest growth such that our full year guidance is just under $3 5 billion of sales and EPS of $2.40 per share.
We expect to generate free cash flow of 200 million and in 2023 with net debt to adjusted EBITDA under three times.
This is inclusive of strategic investments that will allow us to further integrate our recent acquisitions.
And provide capex needed to streamline operations, particularly in Europe to lower operating costs.
Our efforts to generate cash and reduce leverage are rooted in how we're going to win in this downturn, we are focused on protecting and growing our market share optimizing our cost structure and investing strategically in areas that will create long term shareholder value.
I'll now turn it back over to Bob for some additional comments.
Jamie I'll offer a little more color on our projections for 2023 from a regional perspective, Europe seems to have flattened out and our team reports improving customer sentiment in the new year. So that's a good thing I think inflation and higher interest rates in the U S are impacting consumer demand.
In Q1 to a slightly greater degree than we saw in the fourth quarter.
And in Asia, China really is the main driver for us and it's unclear how the economy is going to respond to the relaxed COVID-19 restrictions.
We're certainly optimistic that local consumer demand will improve over the course of the year, which could accelerate with government stimulus.
In our model for the year I also think that we've been conservative with respect to margins.
As raw material deflation should be a positive and candidly we are just balancing that with the uncertain demand conditions, which I think is prudent at this time and I expect we'll have more clarity on that in the coming months from an end market perspective, our full year view is that defense energy and telecom will be positive.
Whereas we will likely see further weakness in consumer building and construction and industrial applications now.
While some end markets and regions are projected to be down this year.
That doesn't change our long term growth rate assumptions for sustainable solutions composites health care in Asia. These are the four key growth drivers that we outlined in our Investor day in December of 'twenty. One we discussed how they have contributed to our expansion over the years and how they will be a continued source of growth in the future.
Organically and with dynamic 2022, really does show the stability and resilience of the composite businesses.
Theres really a pressing almost urgent need for high performance characteristics made possible by composites, particularly for applications that improve human health and the safety and provide for more sustainable infrastructure.
I'm often asked how customers are thinking about sustainable solutions right now.
For us the real pull is from brand owners, who have made commitments to use more recycled content in their products and make them more easily recyclable I have seen no reduction in their interest for these solutions in fact customer engagements on these subjects told in 2022 over 2021.
As the world further aligns around the need for a more sustainable planet materials science formulation will be an enabler and that's exactly where we play.
So both composites and sustainable solutions are expected to grow in 2023.
From a healthcare perspective, what really remains to be seen this year is how inflation and higher living expenses impact discretionary spending including elective procedures. This maintenance may weigh on the market this year, but I don't view that negatively.
Impacting the long term key megatrends of longer life, expectancies, and aging population remote care yourself management, which all play into the long term growth rate assumptions. We have for this market is still there.
With respect to Asia I already commented on China, specifically.
And accordingly, our near term expectations are muted, but as everyone knows China can turn quickly and I really believe that this is just a matter of time.
The steps, we have taken to leverage these megatrends and strengthen our portfolio over the last decade really have us well positioned.
In the near term, we have taken actions to reduce cost streamline operations and strengthen the balance sheet, but at the same time, we are investing for the future and I believe we have much to look forward to with.
We've transformed our portfolio to be a premier specialty formulate or of sustainable solutions.
With leading positions in diversified and high growth industries.
We have over 140 phds on staff to solve our customers' greatest challenges and maintain an innovative product offering with over 35% of sales coming from products introduced in the last five years.
We are the number one color formulated in the world. We are the number one position for composite solutions used in outdoor high performance applications, the world's strongest fiber for personal protection and many other leading positions in niche industries like screen printing inks.
And last but not least we truly have a great place to work culture.
The last three years and likely the next will long be remembered for its list of challenges.
To be able to improve our employee engagement scores. During this time is an incredibly proud of accomplishment, but more importantly, and investment in our future.
In summary, I believe we are better positioned than ever to get through the near term challenges in front of us, but more importantly, when in the downturn and accelerate growth as we emerged.
It's been a while since we updated our peer comparison slides and they are included at the back of the slide deck that you can find on our website.
I feel these slides offer a good reminder of who we are at a value proposition we offer shareholders.
We're an asset light business with industry, leading free cash flow conversion, our EBITDA margin is among the highest in the formulated our peer set and we still have a long term goal to increase EBITDA margins to 20%.
Over the last decade, our EBITDA multiple has been expanding with upside to come when we look at where other formulated as trade.
Encourage all of our current and prospective investors listening to spend some time with these slides in the context of the broader messages, we shared with you today about avian.
That I will open it up for your questions.
Thank you as a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced towards draw. Your question Press Star One one again please.
Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.
Our first question comes from Frank Mitsch with Fermium Research Your line is open.
Thank you and good morning, and thank you for the recap.
I was curious about the.
The destock.
Packed in <unk>, and what Youre seeing in <unk>.
And.
Where does that stand within your portfolio.
I mean, I certainly don't think that.
Destocking has finished.
I think that's yet to play out here in the first quarter I feel like customers are very cautious with respect to their inventory levels and really don't want to add to their positions I think until they've got a better sense that the.
The growth is going to be there the economy is going to pick up.
I do feel like Europe is.
Flattened out to some extent, so and as I mentioned in my remarks, I'm, just encouraged by sort of the sentiment in the statements that I'm getting from my team and how they feel about conditions there.
Whereas I feel like the U S is maybe a little bit further to go here in Q1.
But over by the end of the first quarter.
We will see I mean, I think that even if destocking and that doesn't necessarily means that buying begins. So I think that's the dynamic that we just have to see play out likely in the first half.
I appreciate it Bob.
Looking at the 2023 guidance interestingly.
Similar to where the street is right now I was wondering how you frame.
Your expectations on the upside and the downside case relative to your to your point guidance.
I think like.
In my remarks are really commented that I think we're being conservative with respect to margins.
That there is upside potential with respect to.
Raw material deflation.
I've been here for a number of years and we've typically done very well in that type of an environment. We haven't obviously seen that for a few years. So we'll see how that plays out this year, but then.
With respect to the guidance and how we put that together I feel like that.
At this point, just sort of a prudent position to take with respect to where demand is so.
At this point, we're kind of modeling the demand is.
Down for the year as Jamie frame significantly in the first half, but picking back up in the second half so.
Probably the best way I can just frame that obviously, we've got second half growth assumptions based on the economy getting better at that time.
Thank you so much.
Thank you one moment our next question.
Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, guys.
In the fourth quarter, what was what was your volume.
Delta year over year.
Looks like it was down and was there a big difference between October November and December and then.
What's your outlook for the first and second quarter for volume growth or volume declines.
Yes, so it was about 14% in the fourth quarter.
There was if you recall from our announcement back then.
When we were looking at our sort of November you on orders that was going to be down even more December ended up being a little bit better than we expected, which really accounts for the change in.
EPS, we delivered versus what we said at that time.
When I look at the first quarter, Mike, It's actually pretty similar the only thing that I'd say is maybe a little different as the U S is down a little bit more.
But I view kind of Europe , and Asia was flat. If you just kind of think about how that is proceeding.
From Q4 to Q1.
Got it and then.
May be clearer by flat I mean similar sequence efforts.
Yes, yes.
And then you gave guidance of 125 EBITDA for the first quarter.
Implies you need a better second half and I guess, the second half improvement is really just driven by.
Better in volume versus anything else.
Meaning is there other things that can help drive that better second half besides.
Better demand.
Well I mean I do think that one is we have taken some actions too.
<unk> cost.
Which actually will start to kick in here in the second quarter.
So that will actually have a greater effect in the second half than in the first half.
I also think it just kind of remains to be seen how things play out from a raw material standpoint, but could see some some benefit from that as well, but yes. If you look at other quarters play out.
I'd say it follows really some normal level of seasonality to the extent it this year as normal in that regard, but we'll have to see.
With some additional cost actions that helped the back half of the year.
Got it thank you.
Yes.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
Yeah.
Alright.
Bob I had a question on the composites business.
The pro forma slide that you show.
It's about a 25% EBITDA margin business for 'twenty two.
Is the plan.
<unk> at that kind of mid <unk> EBITDA margin or should we think of there being some operating leverage or price cost opportunity to get margins higher over time, just kind of curious if you have an EBITDA margin target for composites longer term.
Longer term.
Should be higher than 25 per side.
Last year.
In particular, our business in Europe was negatively impacted by higher energy costs, including the.
The <unk> business and so that impacted margins in 2022.
As energy costs, abate here or at least flatten out or where that becomes a little bit.
A better comparable in 'twenty three.
But what.
What we presented before on a pro forma basis <unk> has historically operated above that and I really believe the same can be true for the balance of our composite businesses as well.
Alright.
Just curious with your leverage below three times congratulations on the strong free cash flow and working capital management by the way.
Can you give some thoughts on how youre thinking about capital allocation for 2023.
Are you going to continue focusing on getting that variable rate debt paid down.
You're going to be looking at share repurchases maybe.
Maybe comment on whether the M&A market is getting more attractive any thoughts there would be helpful. Thanks.
Yes, I mean first and foremost we have some important investments that we.
We want to make in the business to accommodate and capture some of the remaining clarient synergies as you know there were some that we had delayed as a result of Covid and plan to effectuate those in this year.
There is additional investments that we're planning to make to help actually drive growth for our composites.
In some cases, we're bumping into some capacity things that will solve this year.
And so as I kind of view operating the business, obviously is priority number one.
And candidly in terms of priorities thereafter, I think keeping that leverage below three times.
It takes priority over share repurchases or anything else.
We'd be looking to every year, we've been increasing the dividend for the last 11 or 12 years, we would hope that we can do that again.
Next year, but that would be something we would announce sometime in the fourth quarter.
Alright, Thank you very much.
Thank you and our next question comes from Angel Castello with Morgan Stanley . Your line is open.
Hi, Thanks for taking my question.
I was hoping you could give us a little bit more color just on the order trends kind of develop.
January February and just roughly what you are seeing kind of in terms of early orders for March.
Yes, I mean, right now I don't think theres anything unique or special to highlight about.
What we've seen so far it's in line with what we.
We're projecting.
As is typical for us, though March is typically a bigger month than the other two.
We head into the second quarter, so to some extent that that is actually baked into our analysis as well so nothing really else to report on January specifically.
Got it and then you talked about some potential upside from deflation or just margin and the conservatism baked in there can you just I guess give us or help us quantify maybe what are the assumptions underlying.
Your guidance in terms of raw materials, whether its energy prices or.
Yes, just basically what the assumptions are there and then also on the restructuring and savings.
What kind of.
The benefit of that is to us throughout the quarter.
Yes look from an energy standpoint, and I'm going to kind of give you a global view of this okay. So clearly it varies by region, but.
Total energy costs were up 35% that was actually about $20 million 22 versus 21. In fact, we've probably got a split that out on slide 17 of this deck that we had.
That's in the segments right now we have energy costs going up about 6% in total for 23 versus <unk> 22.
Obviously that has some level of skewing you're in the first half compared to last year.
And then we'll see how that plays out in the second half.
Obviously right now I would say Europe is feeling a lot better with respect to getting through the preponderance of this winter our energy storage are right now and hopefully that provides some relief.
In that region, and then look with respect to raw materials and.
We are obviously seeing some deflation.
As we go into this year, we've modeled a little bit of that I really couldnt put a quantification to it but would say that there is more opportunity there.
And as I said in my prepared remarks, we're just kind of balancing that with uncertainty around demand. So we'll see how that plays out in the next couple of months and hopefully can give.
Some more clarity on that on our first quarter call.
Got it and then on the cost savings but.
Oh, I'm, sorry, if I missed that latter part of that thing. So in total there is about.
But if I just look at.
Reductions in costs. There are some things that we have is inflationary costs. If I look at the net of cost reductions and some inflationary items.
About $24 million.
As I said that kind of really starts to play out here in the second quarter with respect to the timing of those and then through the balance of the year.
Very helpful. Thank you.
Gotcha.
Thank you and our next question comes from David Wang with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
23% what would the.
Carryover pricing.
From your prior price increase initiatives.
Yeah, we have I think in the front half it's about six if you look at Q1.
A little bit lower than that if you get to sort of the full year assumptions.
Okay and then.
And then also what's your expectation for working capital this year.
Really the expectation is that we kind of maintain a level of working capital can measure it with sales. So we look at that as a percentage of sales I don't really see that changing meaningfully as a percentage through the course of this year.
Obviously, we did generate a lot of cash here in the fourth quarter.
2022, I think our free cash flow number for the years 200.
Alright.
323.
So little bit of working capital and that most of it is EBITDA converted.
So with working capital.
Of cash or use of cash in 2003 I guess.
The modeling assumes basically flat working capital for the full year.
Okay. Thanks.
Yes.
One moment for our next question.
We have a question from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
Thank you good morning, everyone.
So really some nice.
Cost performance, all year and in particular in the fourth quarter and color.
Just two questions around what's working in the pricing playbook.
And we've talked a lot.
On the cost side of the equation in 2023, given some of the moving parts, how we should think about the spread between price and costs throughout 2023.
Yes, I guess.
Remind me if I don't get the second half of your question answered as I address the first so.
I think really one of the things that we did well was that we went early.
Often really going back to.
The end of 2020, the beginning of 'twenty one.
And just.
We're routinely.
Getting price and I think that was across the board in all regions and all businesses. So there wasn't any moment in time, where we just really raised prices in a particular quarter I think we just did that steadily over time.
In our prior quarter remarks, it really said that I think peaked in the third quarter, obviously with demand coming down and changes in supply dynamics.
And now Youre kind of seeing raw material deflation as a result so.
That just kind of I think puts things into perspective with respect to what we did over time that helped us to deliver the results that we did in 'twenty. Two so it wasn't necessarily just something in 'twenty, two but things that started even before that.
We do have a small.
Positive price mix number in the model right now and look as I said that if.
We do better from a raw material standpoint in 2003 that could be.
Better than what we modeled today, we're being conservative in that regard.
You touched on today.
Catherine This is Brad.
Sure.
I guess, if I could ask then just my follow up is.
Your ability to.
Dante.
As pricing capability in a deflationary environment.
On your own perspective, Youre going to manage what you can but just how you view that pricing.
In this type of environment.
Yeah, I mean look it's when demand is down I think thats when you see the most pressure on price.
I think that historically.
We have made accommodations, where we have needed to or felt like it was prudent to do.
We've also visited formulations with our customers to look at lower cost alternatives, if that is an option for them as well.
Which can sometimes maybe a lower price, but better mix or a change in mix anyway.
So look historically I think we've done very well in periods of deflation in terms of.
Maintaining and are lowering prices at a slower pace than what we see from a deflationary standpoint, it really does vary.
Very greatly by end market and application, that's kind of hard to paint a broad sweeping generalization around it but thats. The best thing I can probably say in that regard.
Okay helpful. Thank you so much.
Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Your line is open good morning.
Two questions first on the kind of longer term, 20% target do you think your current portfolio can get there.
Or do you need scale or a further shift in mix.
Can you give us a sense of kind of what you think is most likely available path.
And secondly.
To what degree have you screened your products for P fast content, particularly.
With respect to for example, the EU potential ban on P fast how much of your products would be.
Challenged to meet that.
In terms of the contamination from intermediate chemicals.
One of the things to put that 20% EBITDA target into perspective is if you went back to the initial modeling that we had in 'twenty one for what the business looks like pro forma with.
With dine EMA.
Added in with distribution out we were actually pretty close to 18%.
Come down of course in 2022 as demand decline in the second half of the year. So I think you can go back in time and actually see something.
Reasonably recent that actually has us about half of the way there. So growth is obviously an important part of that characteristic I think improving mix now that we have these businesses and they are the fastest growing being composites and sustainable solutions, which all have higher margins.
I believe that that 20% is something that we can get to for the company as a whole obviously managing cost in terms of the corporate side and everything else helps in that equation too and then.
Yes, I mean, we viewed our sort of <unk> exposure is minimal and specifically.
In Europe .
I don't view that as a significant risk of any kind, we review that as well as a number of other regulatory changes every quarter and that's been one of the things that we reviewed that.
I think categorized as minimal.
Thank you.
Yes.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Eric Petrie from Citi. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning, Bob.
Historical solutions sales increased roughly 50% year over year, how much of that was attributed to dine NEMA and then can you talk about kind of the main segment drivers and how they grew on an underlying basis.
Yes, so <unk> for.
For the most part we have.
If you look at the business recall that about half of that is human health and safety for personal protection than maybe 25% to 30% is in the sustainable infrastructure. So largely we're capturing that as part of our sustainability portfolio. Some of the consumer applications that are in.
Schumer products and as such May not.
Not be in there and then if you just look at 'twenty three over 22.
Sustainable solutions were up about three 5% on a constant dollar basis.
And really what that reflects.
As the decline in demand in the second half of the year for even things like food and beverage packaging, which I didn't read through is a direct pull through from consumers. So much as I think it was just destocking. So not a lack of interest in those particular applications, but just the overall level of I think inventory reduction that was.
Taking place at the time.
Helpful.
Master batch operations can you just give us an update in terms of how utilization fared, particularly in Europe for the quarter and what youre expecting in the first half.
Could you give me that timeframe or do you see for quarter.
During the quarter, how utilization declines and then what youre expecting for first half for master batch operating rates.
Yes, I mean look typically we don't sight utilization rates one of the reasons for that is that look if you were to visit our color facilities you would actually see that they are all relatively small we've got small lines largely for a myriad of niche batch processing applications.
Often which that have a fair amount of turnover time, so I don't really look at it so much per nameplate capacity in that respect obviously with demand being down as much as it was in the fourth quarter you can assume that we had more capacity as a result.
I do think that there is opportunity for some capacity reduction in Europe , that's not news to anybody that is part of what we had been.
And modeling all along with respect to some of the Clarient synergies.
Those are in process right now, but don't really expect to see.
Cost benefit from those until the second half of the year.
Thank you.
Yep.
Thank you and we have a question from Vincent Anderson from Stifel. Your line is open.
Yes, good morning.
So you mentioned strong personal protection demand dynamics out of the gate can you just refresh our memory on the order patterns for that business and so far as what you saw in <unk> might be helping you derisked 2023 outlook there.
Yeah.
I mean look some of our businesses do have a seasonal pattern to them and.
I don't.
And all of that necessarily applies to historically, what we've seen for personal protection.
Yes.
Yes.
Sort of demand agnostic, if you will across the quarters is probably not the right word but.
I don't know I think there is a seasonal element to that.
I do think that there are.
Trends that are resulting in higher levels of.
Personal protection gear for strictly with respect to the military and where our Ukraine for example, many countries.
<unk> been stepping up the level of investment that they're making in their own defense applications and we are really just starting to see that I think in the fourth quarter.
In fact, as we were discussing.
<unk> through the course of the year there was some potential that that might have started to happen earlier. It didn't but I think maybe Q4, we started to see a little bit of that.
Has got upside potential for us in 'twenty three.
Understood. Thank you that's helpful.
And then going back through your healthcare exposure, you think COVID-19 related demand although integrate.
Clarity on I know you mentioned elective care as a potential headwind this year, but can you step back and maybe break down your exposure to health care a bit more between what you would view as the more defensive parts of that portfolio and what specifically would be more exposed to household spending power.
Yeah.
I Couldnt actually break the portfolio down for you by elective versus non elective.
It really it's actually hard for us, Steve and determine where things go but for the most part we are in.
Medical devices drug delivery devices minimally invasive catheters.
And applications like that as well as some pharma in pharma related packaging right, which is respect to health care. So I do think that there is a fair amount of that that is exposed to.
Discretionary spending.
So not necessarily just elective procedures, but also the amount of money that people are willing to spend.
One related to health care, almost personal care type items, so right now I'm kind of viewing that.
As a potential challenge for 'twenty three that's what we've actually built into the model.
I don't think it looks like it did in 2020 when people just flat out didn't go anywhere, but I think its a possible challenge for 'twenty three.
Okay understood. Thank you.
Okay.
That was our last question, we appreciate everyone's time and attention.
This morning, and look forward to updating you on our next call. Following our first quarter. Thank you take care everyone.
Keith.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect.
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
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Okay.
Thank you.
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