Q4 2022 Sylvamo Corp Earnings Call

Okay.

Yeah.

Good morning, Thank you for standing by welcome to <unk> fourth quarter 2022 earnings call I'll.

All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the Speakers' remarks, you will have the opportunity to ask questions to ask please.

Please press one then zero on your telephone keypad to withdraw your question press one zero again.

As a reminder, your call is being recorded I would now like to turn the call over to Hans Bjorkman, Vice President Investor Relations, Sir the floor is yours.

Thanks Amy.

And thank you for joining our call today.

Our speakers. This morning are John Michel Crevier, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer, and John <unk>, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Slides, two and three contain important information, including certain legal disclaimers.

For example, during this call we will make forward looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

We will also present certain non U S GAAP financial information.

Filiation that those figures to U S. GAAP financial measures are available in the appendix.

Our website also contains copies of the fourth quarter 2022 earnings press release as well as todays presentation.

With that let's hear from Jim Michelle.

Thanks, Dennis Good morning, and thank you for joining our call.

I'll begin my comments on slide cool.

In 2022 would you like to leave it significant accomplishment as we executive our three pronged strategy commercial excellence operational excellence and financial discipline.

We worked hard to be the uncoated appreciates your pie charts, which resulted in a row outperforming industrial shipments in all three regions.

We improved our safety performance and defined our idea of tier two which would help us become the company in which employees yeah.

Trust and grew and succeed together.

We delivered strong earnings and free cash flow, despite goodbye supply chain challenges and unprecedented input cost inflation.

We reduced our geopolitical risk and uncertainty.

Divesting of our restaurant business and agreeing to acquire the numerator in Sweden.

We achieved a 30% return on invested capital.

Trying to extend our balance sheet by repaying more than 370 million in debt and returned 19 million in cash to share owners.

I'm proud of our team and their accomplishments over the last year.

Okay.

Slide five highlights I would think 22 food keep performance metrics.

We increased net sales by 28% to $3 6 billion.

We achieved an adjusted EBITDA of 721 million, a 62% increase over 2021.

Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 20%.

We generated 269 million in free cash flow, which was more than $6 per share.

I would like to point out that our 'twenty to 'twenty, one free cash flow only included one quarter worth of cash taxes and interest.

Our adjusted operating earnings increased by 72% to $7 84 per share.

As we enter 2023.

You know our ability to continue to create value for our customers and share owners.

Yeah.

Okay.

Okay.

Slide six highlights our key performance metrics for the fourth quarter.

Net sales were 927 million, a 19% increase versus the fourth quarter of 2021.

Adjusted EBITDA was $70 million.

The 8% versus expense in 'twenty, one with a margin of 18%.

We generated 84 million in free cash flow and adjusted operating earnings of $1 97 per share, which was more than double that adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter of <unk>.

These strong performances demonstrate our ability to continue to de lever no investment phases now.

Now John will discuss our fourth quarter performance in more detail John .

Thank you Michel and good morning, everyone, let's turn to slide seven.

Let's review, our fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA versus the third quarter.

In the fourth quarter price and mix improved by $31 million as.

As we realized power price increases in all regions.

This improvement was in line with our outlook.

Volume decreased by $20 million.

In addition to the unusual seasonal flu.

In addition to the usual seasonal slowdowns in Europe , and North America volume in North America was also impacted by channel Destocking in the commercial printing segment, which I will discuss in more detail later.

Operations and costs increased by $42 million.

Which was near the high end of our outlook.

25% of this was in operations and this was largely due to seasonally higher cost in Europe and North America.

The remaining 75%, but then other costs. These included an incremental incentive compensation accruals unfavorable Brazilian foreign exchange.

An unfavorable year on LIFO.

As expected, we spent 21 million more unplanned maintenance outages as this was our highest out each quarter in 2022.

Input and transportation costs improved by $6 million with favorable energy and distribution costs.

Even after unfavorable impact of $5 million due to the winter storms in the southeast U S. In December .

Okay.

Okay.

Let's look at the 2022 uncoated free sheet industry fundamentals on slide eight.

Demand in Latin America, and North America continued to rebound from pandemic levels, while demand in Western Europe declined slightly.

In the first half of 2022 customers in Europe , and North America cannot get enough paper from domestic suppliers.

They turned to importers, primarily Indonesia mills.

The deliveries of these end points again to show up in the third quarter and during the fourth quarter.

It caused channel inventories to build especially in the North America commercial printing segment.

At this point commercial printers began to reduce their paper orders to rebalance inventories.

It is important to note that the underlying demand for commercial printing in North America has declined slightly.

In line with the slowdown of the economic activity.

With the reopening of the Chinese economy, we expect increasing paper demand in China, which did absorb some of the Indonesia Mills production.

They had been imported into all regions.

Importantly, uncoated freesheet industry capacity in our region is down 10% to 20% relative to pre pandemic levels.

What we will continue to help the supply and demand balance.

In summary demand is up in our largest regions.

Capacity is down in all regions and we are confident in our positions with key customers.

I will turn it back there's all Michele to talk more about our newly acquired <unk> mill.

Thanks, John I'm on slide nine at.

At the beginning of January we welcome Nomura colleagues to <unk>.

These photos from our day one celebration.

The Nomura mill fits well with our three pronged strategy of commercial and operational excellence and financial discipline.

One of Europes largest integrated uncoated freesheet facilities and generates 85% of his energy from carbon neutral renewable biomass procedures.

And the majority of its purchase energy is produced with with that posted a fuse.

The mill has a strong customer focused culture and chess Minneapolis values.

The Newmar team maintained strategic channel partnership.

Complementary geographic mix.

It also has an excellent environmental position and these are aligned who's our environmental stewardship and social responsibility strategies.

Okay.

On slide 10, you can see numerous new oxygen Delaney vacation plant.

Which was part of the 40 million mill modernization project that was completed and started.

Prior to our acquisition.

The project included a new softwood digesta, increasing softwood pulp capacity by 15%, which will allow us to reduce the use of more expensive hardwood.

The movie is on its way to realizing the expected annual earnings benefit of $8 million.

We are thrilled to have the numerous mirrors and their talented team that's product suite bathroom, and integrating <unk> into our commercial and operational processes.

Okay, Let's turn to slide 11, and hear from John on our first quarter outlook.

Okay. Thank you Michelle.

In the first quarter, we expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA of 200 $215 million.

This table shows the quarter over quarter changes without the impact of new mellow and.

And we provide a $15 million to $20 million outlook, but a new modem mill contribution.

Price and mix are projected to decrease by $15 million to $20 million, primarily reflecting a seasonal mix shift in Latin America.

We expect volume to decrease slightly by $5 million to $10 million.

Reflecting seasonally weaker volume in Latin America, and continued inventory corrections.

Europe and North America.

Okay.

Operations and costs are projected to improve by $10 million to $15 million.

As the unfavorable fourth quarter items will not repeat.

We also expect input and transportation costs improved by $5 million to $10 million.

Largely on favorable trends in cost for natural gas and transportation.

Maintenance outage expenses are projected to decrease by $29 million.

As we will not conduct any maintenance outages in the first quarter.

Okay.

This will be a good time to point out that while Saar, Michelle will provide our full year outlook for free cash flow.

We expect the 2023 feet free class cash flow to be weighted more heavily to the second and third quarters of the year.

Well, we are confident in our full year free cash flow forecast.

Hmm.

Yeah.

Please turn to slide 12.

Here, you'll see the three prongs of our capital allocation framework.

This depicts how we think about allocating cash to drive shareowner value.

At the time of the spin off we prioritize using cash to reduce debt.

We also began to return non discretionary capital spending to the appropriate level to maintain our low cost assets.

Now that we have achieved a much stronger financial position with less than 1 billion of gross debt.

We're putting greater emphasis on returning cash to shareowners and reinvesting in our business to grow our earnings and generate cash.

We remain a cash flow story, we will leverage our strength to drive high returns on invested capital and generate free cash flow.

And we'll use that cash increase shareowner value.

Maintaining a strong financial position.

Returning more cash to share owners.

And reinvesting our business.

So let's move to slide 13 to review our fortified financial positions.

Okay.

Yeah.

Since the spin off we have reduced our debt by more than $500 million.

At the end of January our gross debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was one four times and our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was one two times.

Pension funds remain well funded at or above 95%.

We do not have any significant debt payments due until 2027.

Let's move to slide 14.

Yeah.

We will continue to reinvest in our business and maintain our low cost assets.

And we will fund high return projects to increase our earnings and cash flow.

Our 2023 capital spending outlook includes 175 to 190 million for non discretionary spending and $35 million to $45 million for high return projects and to integrate new Miller and Chi the synergies there.

Our maintenance and regulatory spending plan includes 18 million for a new Moa Mil.

As well as spending plan for 2022 that was delayed due to supply chain challenges.

Our maintenance and regulatory plan also includes an incremental $10 million due to inflation.

We will also invest $30 million to $35 million in Brazil, our history about a 10% year over year increase to ensure long term availability of sufficient volumes of low cost wood.

A critical component of our competitive advantage in Latin America.

Yes.

I'm now on slide 15.

We have created substantial shareholder value in the 16 months since the spin off.

We fortified our financial position reduce debt by more than 35%.

<unk> 1 billion gross debt target.

Returning cash to shareowners as a core component of our investment thesis.

We have returned $111 million in cash to shareowners with $21 million in dividends.

And $90 million of share repurchases.

Since the spin off we have repurchased one 8 million shares.

Also we more than doubled our quarterly dividend of <unk> 25 cents per share effective this quarter.

Yeah.

We will continue to reinvest in our business, we remain a supplier of choice to maintain our assets and competitive cost position and to increase cash flow.

I'll turn it back to us so.

Thanks, John .

Turn to slide 16 to review, our 'twenty to 'twenty three full year outlook.

In 2022, we expect to generate 762 $840 million in adjusted EBITDA and.

And 302 strata and $30 million in free cash flow.

Adjusted EBITDA outlook assumes slightly favorable price and mix against input cost.

And relatively stable volume.

Since we expect channel inventory correction to be resolved in the first outflow this year.

Our planned maintenance outage expense would be about $20 million higher this year than last with allergies inside App and Nomura, we're expecting favorable trends in energy and food and transportation costs.

Free cash flow outlook reflects an increase in earnings.

Reducing theorists expenses and the elimination of foreign tax credits on our Latin American earnings.

It also reflects the increase in capital spending that John reviewed.

Lets wrap up our comments on slide 17.

Okay.

We remain committed to our investment thesis.

We strive to remain the employer supplier and investment of choice.

We are grateful for our talented and engaged colleagues and their dedication to working safely.

Delivering on customer commitments and creating value for our shareowners.

We're also grateful for our customers without their continued support and partnership we could not succeed.

Executing our three pronged strategy of commercial excellence operational excellence and financial discipline will enable us to continue to create long term value for shareowners.

We will continue to leverage our strengths to drive our returns on invested capital and generate cash.

And we will allocate capital to maximize shareholder value.

Increasing cash returns to shareowners is one of our key objectives.

With that in mind, we are considering as Tennessee is regarding the current limit on our restricted payments.

We remain committed to creating value for all of our stakeholders as we build our desire culture.

One in which we care, we trust, we grow and succeed together with <unk>.

That I will turn the call back over to ads.

Thanks, John Michelle and thank you John Okay, Amy we're now ready to take questions.

Thank you if you'd like to ask a question. Please press one then zero on your telephone keypad.

To withdraw a question. Please press one zero again.

We do ask that you limit yourself to one question and one follow up question. Thank you. Our first question comes from George Staphos with B O. A securities you may begin.

Thank you hi, everyone. Good morning can you hear me okay.

Yes, John Hi, How're, you doing doing well thanks for all the details and congratulations on the progress in the year. My first two questions we'll be around volume.

And so Joe Michele I think you said in your prepared remarks at the end that you expect stable volumes and I'm, just trying to determine whether that.

Underlying demand that you are referring to or your own shipments.

Considering the fact that.

I think you said channel Destocking is still going to be occurring through the first half.

And my second question.

So you talked about the impact of imports and what triggered that and that was very helpful.

Recognizing there's a lag on this data the imports continue to rise.

At least in North America.

Do you attribute that to to the extent that you can comment and what is embedded in your forecast.

23 about the impact of imports in North America, but certainly anywhere else you care to discuss thank you.

Thanks, John .

Two two separate question I'll start with the volume I'm talking about our volume.

I think.

When we look at the full year and what we are winning with customers.

I feel comfortable we would have a great year.

Even if you take ground know despite the inventory correction.

In Latin America, it's a little less in North America, and in Europe , but it really depends of segments already if you take the commercial printing segment.

It is weak and that's probably where the inventories are highest if you take the cut size segment. Its quite good concerning demand, we're still seeing strong demand growth in Brazil.

Brazil in cut size either back to above pre COVID-19.

Demand in North America.

It's difficult to forecast, but I.

I would say maybe not as strong as last year, where imports impacted but still good.

Europe , we have the trending a slight decrease which is normal.

Your question on inventory.

Yes, my understanding on inventory and it comes mostly from the input and even got sorry, Oh women men import sorry about that.

The question on imports and it comes from a lot of discussion recently activity I personally had with customers.

In first half last year.

If you remember there was a.

A little bit of a panic I will call. It in the markets and this is true in.

North America and in Europe .

Well our customers have had a lot of work and from a supply standpoint, we're still tight because of the demand and also we were still getting out of the COVID-19 and probably not efficient.

In a normal timing. So this is wayne.

None of this import was older.

And it didn't come on the first half of the year as it would have been expected by these customer it mostly came in third quarter and fourth quarter, which by the way. If you look at the statistics in North America, you can see the increase in the import is mostly juice third and fourth quarter.

I think that was.

The pipeline defect thats because supply chain was very difficult in first half.

So and cost of sending paper from Asia to North America, Europe , whereas 10 times, where it is today. So it was extremely high so that has created clearly an issue in the inventory.

Even our customers were not expecting to be so strong so I.

I think that's.

One ton big impact, we will see them imports in Europe or in the U S. I expect it to be like the trends, we've had up to know between 10% to 15% maximum.

But not between 15, and 20%, which we had on fourth quarter. So I think this is once the destocking would have happened we went back to more traditional long term trends.

Josh I'll turn it over but that those ratios you mean as a percentage of consumption or year on year growth just one point of clarification there.

Vantage of demand.

Right.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC capital markets you may begin.

Oh.

Yeah. Thanks, very much good morning, guys just a question on <unk>.

I understand the Capex is up this year because it looks like you missed about $30 million of spend last year, but.

If you could give us some examples of where you're spending the $30 million to $35 million on high return projects and whether you expect this higher level of capex to stay up.

And at this level in 'twenty four.

Yeah, Paul It's John Sims.

So our capital spending.

For this year is higher than last year and as you say some of that is attributed to care of you. It's the things that we had planned to execute in two.

<unk> 2022.

Because the supply chain got pushed into 2023.

The additional spending also is due to the new MELA mill, which we highlighted here. So the 18 million I think we gave a guidance for the maintenance and regulatory somewhere between 130 to 150 is what we would be spending for maintenance regulatory and reforestation that numbers now.

Queen $1 80.

175, and 190 I think is.

A good number to go forward and what that does include the additional new Malone spending probably around $15 million to $20 million and also we have the impact of inflation.

We kind of highlighted that but inflation impacted not just the input cost, but labor as well as capital and we're expecting that to go forward.

So I think the second part of your questions around the <unk>.

High return cost reduction capital, where do we expect to spend that so that's a planning number right now we do have a pipeline of projects there.

We're gonna be approved and what we do is we make sure that we're spending.

That money to get high return projects and our most competitive mills. So we can get long term benefit from that and we'll be sharing that as those projects get approved going forward.

Okay, and then if I could just switch over to a free cash flow pretty robust guide at 300 to 330.

Your restrictions Jay if you could remind us your restrictions on share buybacks and what youre doing to try to.

Alleviate some of the spending.

The limits on it on returning that cash.

Sure.

In the fourth quarter, we were able to increase the restricted payment covenants that we had.

75% to $90 million and that's what you know as you know we fully utilize that and returned 90 million back to shareholders in either a form of a dividend and also in terms of share buybacks, which we did last year.

$10 million in dividend and $80 million in share buybacks were still limited.

To the $90 million.

Right now as we speak and this is one of the things that John Michel alluded to it is a priority for us as you rightly say you know our free cash flow.

We're projecting we feel very confident about there is expected to increase this year versus next year and so we're working.

On different options that we will be reviewing with the board and we're gonna be our intent is to get flexibility. So that we can increase.

Incur.

Increased what we can return back to shareowners above the 90 million.

It's one of our priority, we do want to return more cash to shareholders. This is a key objective.

Well, that's great to hear.

Best of luck.

Thank you Paul.

Thank you. Our next question is from Ed Brucker with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Hey, Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the good quarter.

My first one was just on some of your comments.

Right to start on what seems like some outperformance in shipments.

In the quarter versus peers just wondering.

Your thoughts on it.

Is that is that taking share within the market or I guess, just more details on what you're doing to kind of be the go to uncoated freesheet.

Provider.

Yeah, Hi, Ed Thanks for joining the call.

You know we've been a long term partner in this business and silvana, especially with his focus to uncoated freesheet.

Very well aligned with the key winning customers worldwide. This is true in North America, but this is true in Europe and Latin America also so as a result, we usually grew more than the market our volume.

And this is not new it's been happening for multiple years, but we can see very well today, where.

It's a very good fit because our customers are very aligned with us.

And we're growing them.

And we're growing on long term partnership and with our brands with complete offering with the best partners in the channels and that makes a difference. So we want to continue to win in this market and we think we have the right.

We can play here.

Okay.

Got it and my next question.

Just on.

M&A This Swedish mill no it sounds like a pretty good acquisition. It seems like just in the space that consolidation could be a way to.

Control.

What seems to be declining.

Coated freesheet market just in general Oh.

And in control capacity there. So just wanted to get your thoughts on more M&A. If you are looking at other.

Looking at other acquisitions in the size you'd be willing to do that.

Primarily in the context of.

Ah you're restrictions that you do have on share repurchases and the excess cash will likely have an.

In 2023, with the $300 million free cash flow.

So Ed M&A is not our priority.

We are satisfied with our call meals and what we have today.

It would be purely opportunistic, but returning more to cash is clearly our priority. So this is more what we're going to spend our time than <unk>.

Looking at M&A Nomura was a unique very opportunity to see great opportunity.

And are.

We're going to continue and are allocating our capital mall to a strong financial position.

Return as I say to cash to shareholders and great invest reinvestment in our business that is going to be a priority.

Got it and then I'll just this is John I'll, just add that the <unk> was well it was a great opportunity for US is core to our strategy is a focus on uncoated freesheet, which also was one of the reasons why because we tend to outperform the market because customers know that were.

We're in it for the long run we want assets that are low cost debt.

Have a competitive advantage in the marketplace. So that we can continue to serve the uncoated free sheet, possibly generate a lot of cash for a long time and that's.

The new more mill, just really fit.

Right into the wheelhouse that we were looking for there's not a lot of.

The opportunities for that but that's what we mean by opportunistic has got to fit with our strategy. It's got to be a low cost strong asset.

And that's that's what newmont mirrors.

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question. Please press one zero on your telephone keypad.

To withdraw your question. Please press one zero again.

We have another question from George <unk>.

<unk>.

F with D O a securities please begin.

Thanks, everybody.

Again, two more questions more on volume, although I've got other stuff I do want to get too as well so I'll come back but.

Michelle.

And John So if if you assume that imports are going to drop from 15 to 20 per cent of consumption.

10% to 15% of consumption.

And you know the market consumption, probably is gonna be.

Down because that's the normal trend.

And that would suggest a fairly sizable drop in imports for this year and 23 versus 22.

Am I missing something there in terms of how you're evaluating it and anything.

That's giving you comfort any sort of green shoots commentary from D CS or your customers that that's happening.

So that's question number one question number two again.

On volume and trade flow.

Yes, China was locked down last year, but one of the things that that also did this is more on the freight side.

Is it prevented.

Exports from China, and from South East Asia.

Maybe we're now seeing with the reopening those imports coming into North America coming into Europe , but could there be further problems. If you will.

And really relay what your customers are saying from the opening of supply chains and what it might mean for supply that comes into markets that where as you pointed out really tight last year in Europe , and North America, which was a good thing for you.

Yes, George I'm going to start off and then I know Joe Mazzoli play went away in but when you look at the U a.

For the full year for 'twenty, two inputs into North America represented 13% of demand, but most of that was the increase has talked about in the second half of that year.

So when we look at our projections.

And there's a lot of moving parts on this I mean, when we're talking about somewhere between the 10% to 15%, we're still seeing and projecting a potential increase.

Of employees a year over year into <unk>.

Into North America.

Being mindful that us it is true that the cost of shipping from Asia into the U S. S. Absolutely back down to you know.

Pre pandemic levels, but there is still extensive duties.

Yes.

Alright that applied to both Indonesia and the Chinese.

Suppliers.

And as the open it backs up the Chinese market opens back up.

When you look at it from.

Our pricing perspective, net pricing perspective, its still probably more advantageous for them to ship.

Into China. The other thing we didn't talk about a little bit but some of the imports also came in from Europe European freight costs continued to be extremely high.

So I think when we.

And when we look at our outlook and how we're thinking about it.

We do feel see and we're projecting that we're going to see some increase.

Yes imports into into the U S. But I think were trying to allude to it it's going to it's not going to be added to norm than what we've seen before and it's been it's manageable okay.

If I could sneak one more in just in terms of your guidance. So the first quarter.

Well over $200 million in terms of EBITDA.

Look recognizing theres lots of seasonality and certainly maintenance outages.

Are lumpy.

If I just annualize that I would wind up with an EBITDA outlook, that's probably above your full year range. So.

Are you just trying to create or give yourself some cushion against the unknowable occur in any year or are there. Some specific things that you want us to remember in terms of the cadence of your EBITDA.

You know the rest of the year.

Thank you guys I think there's.

There's two things on that George one is theres no outages in the first quarter. So I do.

Page in the appendix that shows a outage and the two highest audi's quarters as the second and.

The fourth quarter.

Got it so that you got to factor that into it.

Well, we I will say that you know.

There is a lot of economic uncertainty.

Our outlook, we've taken into account as well we do have the range, we're confident in it given that our what we're projecting.

<unk>, both the good and the bad I mean, there are some things that we think and we just talked about it potentially imports.

North America could be Oh, and in Western Europe , but then there's the positives were.

An example would be China opening up.

That could have a positive impact on us the other thing that we didn't mention is but.

Im Michelle alluded to it is yeah, we're really seeing really strong demand.

And in Brazil in fact, Brazil, uncoated freesheet demand is now above pandemic levels and.

I think there you are.

You increased almost 19, 19%, we're seeing cuts ought to be very strong as has offices, we're starting to see reports to the U S.

Turning to the office now at 50% as that continues to increase that supportive.

Outlook is both.

Both the positives and the more challenging scenarios and incorporate into it.

Thank you John .

Okay.

Our next question comes from Paul Quinn with RBC capital markets. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Thanks, I just wanted to follow up on this in your priority is returning cash to shareholders.

And just to talk about somebody alternatives.

God I'm trying to remove some of the restrictions from your payment basket to shareholders.

Yes.

Well Paul.

Love to be able to do this year that with you, but I think on.

Because some of these options could involve.

I'm confident both mentioned, we really can't discuss it right now and we do also we need to make sure we've got the.

Our board is.

Approved.

But some nice.

We're looking at all options Yeah, we're looking at a high.

Level.

And I would say that we also are confident that we're going to be able to do something about an increase of 90, the $90 million this year.

Yes.

Alright, that's all I had.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Adam Ritzer private Investor. Please go ahead.

Hi, Thanks for taking my call I just had most of the questions I had were covered but in terms of your debt stack right now you're about one times levered roughly.

Is there any reason why you would need to go below that or would want to in terms of cash deployment.

No I think the short answer to your question Adam is that we're really comfortable with where we are I mean, we've set a target of $1 billion and that's gross debt.

Because we wanted to be able to have the financial flexibility through the cycle to invest in our business either in high return projects.

Or.

Or whatnot.

And so that's that's where we are now.

So could we reduce our debt, we may but not because of the payment restrictions that we have but that.

That's not the plan right now.

Alright, if unless you until you get the payment restrictions lifted the cash is going to build but ultimately right. You don't want to have you know you don't want to have too little debt got it.

Other question I had yes.

We relates to euro.

No in the past you said about I think it was 25% of Europe's capacity is not fully integrated.

Hum.

I'm not that close to the market that you guys are what are there any other mills in Europe , where capacity reductions or potential consolidations that you guys have heard about rumored to.

To further consolidate the European markets.

I think we cannot really answer that question, we don't comment on rumors so but your numbers in terms of non integrated capacity and which mean less competitive for Europe up about 25% is correct.

Okay. Appreciate it thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bofa Securities you may begin.

Hi, Thanks for taking my question be my last one guys I promise. So you know when we look at the Capex this year.

And you've done a good job of outlining.

Why.

An increase nonetheless, when we look back over time.

Certainly priorities have changed the markets change your relative positioning.

Has changed probably for four and a good way.

You know, it's still a pretty sizeable jump up in Capex.

Could you remind us you know what you think.

More.

Normalized which suggests that maybe 23 isn't normalize so maybe it is but you know what you think a normalized level of capex could be for the company incorporating return projects.

You know, making sure everything is functioning at the level you want.

And you know when you do your indexing do you think your spending.

At least as much if not more than what you see overall within the industry because my view would be you're probably spending at a very healthy level when it.

It's working out your performance has been very good you know what do you think normalized is and do you think you are at least spending as much if not more for per Mil.

Or per ton.

Versus averages in the entry thanks, guys and good luck in the quarter.

Yeah, Thank you George and.

I think when we are you know our focus is it's we keep saying is to generate cash and so we wanted to be very judicious in the capital that we spend but also the engine of our cash.

<unk> is our low cost assets as well as our customer relationships and our people of course, but this is a key focus now if you look at the average of our capital when we do this.

We can really go back to 2016, because it was 16.

After that 17 18, 19 capital was pulled back and we would we would say that we that it was underinvested in the paper business and our business during that time period, but within the Florida, we saw it down in Brazil and also.

And our.

All of these but if you look at the period prior to 2016, what were spending essentially.

Pretty much on average what we've spent.

Back then on a profit per facility basis with the exception of inflation.

You have to you know in $2016 you you have to inflate it and it was quite a bit of inflation in the last two years that we've seen in the maintenance spending.

So then I guess the short answer to your question is yes, I think the the range that we talked about earlier and the 175 to 190 million for maintenance regulatory and Florida history.

Is.

Is probably what we feel is the appropriate number going forward. Yeah. We didn't mention this but I'm, sorry, I'm gonna George and they take a little extra time, but.

I think it's good to point out why we are increasing spending in Florida to be down in Brazil. So we are increasing by 10% and it's really because of what I said earlier back in 2019.

2020 one.

We underinvested in our forestry in Brazil, and then we also which means that we typically have 80% of our wood that we consume is.

Our own forest and 20% we have to go out and much more expensive outside market to get the wood.

Cause we underinvested not only that but we also.

Forest fires there were some insect damage.

We are now probably approaching 70%.

And that actually 10% is a big deal from a cost perspective for us.

And so we're going to be investing more in our forestry to replant.

Land that we have that we own or do our partnerships that we've been.

We hadn't been adequately.

Adequately sustaining and so we're spending that to go forward, but again because of the limitations of the wood six to seven years, we really won't see the benefit of that until now.

Out in the future, but that's the only reason why we are increasing.

Spending.

Yeah that makes sense and certainly is consistent with a lot of the things that the Latam folks.

Talk about.

And it's a low cost source of wood. So you are saying investing in and conversion of that fiber as well so you've got to keep your base.

Thank you John .

Thank you.

I'll now turn the call back over to Hans Jackman for closing comments.

Thank you for joining us today, we appreciate your interest in survival I'm going to ask John Michel to give a quick summary of the call today. So thanks to all of you for joining first of all I just wanted to remember.

Maybe what's our key message is in 2023, we expect to increase our earnings and free cash flow versus 2022.

We expect and it's a clear objective of us to return more cash to shareholders.

And in terms of capital allocation, we want to keep a strong financial position and return cash to shareowners and reinvest in our business.

I'm sure 23 is a lot of uncertainty, but we've got the right strategy and the right people to execute it. So we feel confident in this outlook.

Thank you very much.

Yeah.

Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in silver Atmos fourth quarter 2022 earnings call you may now disconnect.

We're sorry your conferences ending now please hang up.

Q4 2022 Sylvamo Corp Earnings Call

Demo

Sylvamo

Earnings

Q4 2022 Sylvamo Corp Earnings Call

SLVM

Friday, February 10th, 2023 at 3:00 PM

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