Q4 2022 Portland General Electric Co Earnings Call

February 16, 2023

The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.

[music].

Yeah.

Good morning, everyone and welcome to Portland General Electric company's fourth quarter 2022 earnings results Conference call.

Today is Thursday February 16 2023.

This call is being recorded and such as all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the Speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period.

If you would like to ask a question. During this time simply press star one one on your telephone keypad.

If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press star one again.

If you do intend to ask a question. Please avoid the use of speaker phone.

For opening remarks, I will turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric Senior director of Finance Investor Relations and risk management.

John .

Adult meal. Please go ahead Sir.

Thank you to Rhonda good morning, everyone I'm happy you can join US today before we begin this morning, I would like to remind you that we have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussion, which we'll be referencing throughout the call.

Slides are available on our website at investors <unk>, Portland General Dot com.

Turning to slide two some of our remarks. This morning will constitute forward looking statements.

We caution you that such statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from our expectations for a description of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our earnings press release that our most recent periodic reports on forms 10-K, and 10-Q, which are available on our website.

Leading our discussion today are Maria Pope President and CEO , and Jim Ajello Senior Vice President of Finance, CFO Treasurer and CFO .

Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions.

Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Maria.

Great. Thank you Gerard and good morning, Thank you all for joining us today.

Beginning with slide four ill start by discussing our 2022 full year and fourth quarter results as well as touch on a few key drivers.

Overall, we delivered solid results for the year despite significant challenges.

We reported GAAP net income of $233 million or $2 60 per share for the full year 2022.

After adjusting for the first quarter 2014 impact of the 'twenty 'twenty wildfire in Cobot earnings test write off.

non-GAAP net income was $245 million or $2 74 per diluted share. This.

This compares with $244 million or $2 72 per share in 2021.

For the fourth quarter, GAAP net income of $60 million or <unk> 56 cents per share.

This compares with $66 million or <unk> 73 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021.

As we were specifically impacted by severe late December storms, and extraordinary natural gas and energy market volatility.

In December natural gas prices at regional hubs peaked at over $55 per <unk>.

On average mid C power prices rose to $265 per megawatt hour.

Over five times, what we experienced in 2021.

The risks and impacts of market volatility are squarely in our focus.

We made improvements to procurement.

Modeling and have entered into additional hedges there.

We're also more actively using natural gas storage at the north mist facility to mitigate market volatility.

Over the last year, our hedging program was effective.

And it's also being improved upon.

While 2022 prices at the mid sea increased by nearly 60%.

Price for our customers paid for power only increased by 14%.

As hedges roll off further energy market related price increases include seven 7% in 2023.

A forecast of four 5% in 2024.

Load growth continues at a rapid pace, increasing 2% over last year.

Hi Tech and digital customers.

Driving this increase with industrial is growing at 10, 6%.

Offsetting this impact is the customer mix shifts with a return to lower residential pre COVID-19 usage.

From an operating perspective.

I could not be prouder of our hard work and dedication of our team this year.

And driving operational efficiencies and navigating extraordinary weather conditions.

Excluding the impacts of increased wildfire mitigation expenses and deferral items year over year generation transmission distribution O&M was up less than 1%.

And administrative and other O&M was up one 2%.

As we are laser focused on cost management.

Offset the impacts of inflation and other cost.

Moving to slide five.

Our commitment to affordability remains steadfast.

And we'll continue to manage costs aggressively.

We are streamlining our work processes, simplifying leveraging technology and improving productivity.

We have upped our game with regards to ageing infrastructure and compliance.

Placing and installing critical assets to strengthen our reliability.

On the technology front, we've deployed digital tools to enable operational efficiencies and visibility.

Better resource deployment and improved customer service.

We've decreased the average duration of business impacting events by over 13%.

Thousands of person hours through automation of repeatable tasks.

We're also using machine learning to improve restoration forecasting, giving our customers greater clarity, while we reduce $1 3 million outage minutes in 2022.

We are cognizant as well of our broader social impact and responsibility.

Our spending with diverse suppliers increased significantly helping to sustain and strengthen our communities.

Jim will go into more detail on our O&M as we are again planning to be largely flat in 2023 excluding.

Excluding the impacts of increased wildfire mitigation expenses and deferral items.

Today.

We filed our 2024 rate case, I should actually say yesterday, we filed our 2024 rate case with.

With the <unk>, which includes a 14% price increase.

40% of our request is related to reliability resiliency and customer acquired capital investment.

30% is driven by higher natural gas at purchase LNG prices with the last 30% reflective of higher compliance costs and inflation.

As well as operating and financing costs.

In addition, we're seeking an authorization or important work to protect and mitigate against climate and significant event risks.

Such as wildfires.

An important aspect of our general rate case is addressing our power cost adjustment mechanism or <unk>.

We have proposed modifications to the power costs regulatory framework to facilitate bergener, Oregon de carbonization goals.

And better reflect current and future operating conditions.

This is not a risk transfer.

Rather our proposal will create a more durable framework that supports customers.

By fairly balancing benefits and cost and improving the overall mechanism.

As in the past, we look forward to collaborative discussions with the OTC and stakeholders.

Especially during this period of enormous transformation and significant capital investment.

Last quarter as you know, we announced the Clearwater wind project.

One of our benchmark generation bids.

We are optimistic about the potential ownership opportunities as we continue to negotiate the remaining not admitting dispatch of our capacity RFP.

We expect to procure 375 megawatts the needs that was identified in the 2021 RFP.

This includes PGE benchmark projects, a potential ppas that will be critical tools, and supporting reliability and helping us manage power cost volatility given the additional wind and solar and variable resources coming onto our system.

We expect these negotiations to conclude in the first half of this year.

In March.

We will file our combined clean energy plan, an integrated resource plan.

We shared previously these plans will incorporate oregon's overall de carbonization goals and Pge's associated actions.

In the second half of the year, we expect to launch additional rfps for renewable generation and not admitting capacity and alignment with those plans.

As we continue to lead the way to a clean energy future reliability and affordability have been and will always be key to this transformation.

With the passage of the infrastructure investment and jobs Act and the inflation reduction Act, we look forward to working in partnership with local communities private entities technology companies and others to secure federal funding for climate and infrastructure investments.

To reduce customer bill impacts.

In 2022, we submitted a $180 million in federal grant applications and concept papers.

And in just the first six weeks of 2023, we have submitted an additional 300 million a concept papers.

This nearly $480 million in grant applications and concept papers arent supportive projects totaling approximately $945 million targeted towards projects, which will range from new technologies that integrate ever increasing amounts of renewable energy to large scale transmission.

For the full year 2023, we expect earnings to be in the range of $2 60.

To $2 75 per share.

2023 represents an investment year.

The equity issuance to reset our balance sheet and regulatory lag are temporary headwinds and.

In our 2020 for Trc in RFP investment opportunities established a clear path to strong performance.

Looking beyond 2023, we are confident in our long term earnings growth of 5% to 7% driven by strong load and customer growth and attractive capital investment profile and improved operational performance that enabled exceptional customer service.

In summary.

Our performance in 2022 latest strong foundation for long term growth.

We advanced critical de Carbonization projects navigated historic power market volatility and executed well and face a severe weather.

As we look ahead, we are confident that by remaining focused on providing safe.

Liable affordable.

Clean energy to all customers, we will deliver strong financial results.

Now I'll turn it over to Jim Thank.

Thank you Maria and good morning, everyone. Our 2022 results reflect both the upside of our service territory, but also the challenges we face as a region undertakes the energy transformation journey strong load growth continued but we also face difficult power market volatility and severe weather that impacted our performance.

First some context for operating conditions, we witnessed continued demand growth as well as changing load patterns and habits have shifted from the height of the pandemic in 2021 to more normalized usage in 2022 overall 2022 loads increased 2% whether it.

Justin compared to 2021 on a non weather adjusted basis total load increased three 4% year over year, driven by cold periods in the spring and winter in a historically warm summer in 2022, Portland saw the hottest July and August temperatures on record and extreme.

Temperatures in December caused a new winter peak for the.

The first time since 1998.

Usage increased one 4% on a non weather adjusted basis, but decreased.

One 4% weather adjusted.

As COVID-19, and related usage trends moderated from the elevated 2021 levels residential customer counts increased one 2%.

Here.

Commercial usage increased.

1% non weather adjusted but decreased 0.5% weather adjusted as commercial growth has slowed slightly in the aftermath of the pandemic compared to the high growth levels in this segment in 2021.

The industrial class continued on its rapid growth trajectory with industrial loads, increasing 10, 9% on a weather adjusted basis or 10, 6% weather adjusted as high Tech sectors steady expansion in our region continued.

Similar to much of the country, we have seen some signals a moderation in our regional economy.

I'm confident in the fundamentals of our service territory.

A healthy pipeline of construction and interconnections gives us line of sight to load expectations in 2023 and beyond as such we are reaffirming our long term load growth guidance of 2% through 2027.

As Maria noted our quarterly EPS decreased from 73 per share in the fourth quarter of 21 to <unk> 56 per share in the fourth quarter of 2002, we relied on all available strategies to mitigate the impact of historic volatility in the Pacific Northwest in the closing weeks of 2020.

Two but demand during cold weather stretches and sustained high prices created financial impacts that could not be entirely overcome during this volatile time. Despite these conditions our financial liquidity remains strong and we closed 2022, having served 39% of retail customer load.

From specified non carbon emitting energy sources during the year.

You will also remember that in the fourth quarter 2021, we had already surpassed the $30 million upper dead band.

And the pks, creating a unique quarter over quarter cost comparison.

Given this context I'll turn to slide six.

Our financial performance year over year.

We experienced a 40% increase in total revenues compared to 21.

Including a 63% increase in EPS due to the three 4% increase in deliveries.

Led by growing demand from our high Tech and digital industrial customers.

Partially offset by a <unk> <unk> decrease in EPS.

Changes due to changes in customer price composition with industrial load growth outweighing residential and commercial load.

Power costs increased and net <unk> compared to 2021 made up of 2007 <unk>.

Increase attributed to the headwinds in 2021 net of the 2021 P. Chem deferral that we normalize for this comparison.

Higher market prices, driven by resource scarcity and peak periods, primarily driven by serving load during periods of severe weather and market volatility.

Drove a 19 EPS decrease.

<unk> decreased due to higher purchase volumes to serve load in 'twenty, two and two cent decrease due to the change.

Third as part of the 2021 PJM deferral settlement.

There was a 6% decrease to EPS attributed to higher operating expenses net of storm restoration of regulatory program costs that are offset in revenue driven primarily by increased wildfire mitigation.

Depreciation management and grid hardening efforts that increased in 2022.

It was a five cent impact from depreciation and amortization expense driven by higher plant asset balances in 2022 compared to 2021, mostly for transmission distribution and intangible technology assets. There was a <unk> <unk> decrease due to higher property and payroll taxes.

<unk> decreased due to higher interest expense driven by increased long term debt balances throughout 2022 with higher interest rates, including our Q3 2021 in Q4 2022 debt issuances.

A 9% decrease driven by the local flowed through tax adjustment recognized in 'twenty, one which did not recur in 2022.

We had a net <unk> decreased reflecting offsetting impacts from a handful of items as follows a 7% decrease due to lower returns on the nonqualified benefit trust compared to 2021 <unk>.

<unk> decreased due to lower <unk>, driven by lower quick balances in 2022, 9% decrease due to the settlement gain the buyout proportion of Pge's post retirement medical plan and finally at <unk> decreased due to other miscellaneous items.

Lastly, we experienced a 14% decrease to GAAP EPS as a result of the application of the earnings test on major 2020 deferrals established in the final 2022, GIC order, which brings us to our GAAP EPS.

So a $1 60 per diluted share after adjusting for the <unk> impact of the 2022 GSE earnings test it for a reduction we reach our 2022 non-GAAP EPS of $2 74.

Our diluted share.

Moving to slide seven as noted earlier yesterday, we filed a general rate case with the Oregon Public utility Commission to review our cost of providing service and approve new prices to take effect in January 2020 for the Trc filing requests recovery of essential capital investments of nearly.

$859 million and upgrading the grid to improve reliability resiliency and capability to deliver safe reliable and clean electricity to customers. This includes the further de hydro project, which was placed into service in January of 2023.

Requested price increase increase reflects a rate base of $6 3 billion.

An increase of $859 million or 16%.

A return on equity of nine 8% a capital structure of 50% debt, 50% equity a cost of debt of $4, three 2% and our cost of capital of seven 6%.

As Mario discussed the filing also includes a proposed modification of the <unk> the <unk>.

<unk> provides a 90 10 sharing of power cost variances without a dead band mechanism. Additionally.

Additionally, the proposal provides for full recovery of costs prudently incurred during specific reliability contingency events.

Finally recovery or refund over multiple years as each year's recovery is subject to a rolling customer price impact cap, which limits the annual price changes for the mechanism recovery or credit to two 5%, meaning any variance, causing price changes above two 5%.

Is carried to the following year or continued collection or credit.

Basel is a fair and balanced one and aligns the interests of our customers with the company.

We look forward to engaging with stakeholders during the rate case process, which would take about 10 months with a procedural schedule publication expected.

The coming weeks.

On to slide eight for an update of our 2021 RFP Clearwater project announced in the fourth quarter is now under construction with project completion is still estimated by the end of 2023.

Where we had touched on the ongoing negotiations relating to the remaining non emitting.

<unk> capacity and I'll reiterate that this includes pge's benchmark projects negotiations are going well and we continue to be optimistic about our ownership opportunities for battery storage resources.

We are hopeful to share the outcome of these negotiations in the first half of 2023.

We are also continuing negotiations for an incremental renewable generation projects as part of the 2021 RFP if contracts for additional generation projects are not achieved in the 'twenty. One RFP. We would include in our next RFP.

With the conclusion of the 2021 RFP on the Horizon. We are now beginning to turn attention to the 2023 resource planning and procurement processes. We recently filed notice with <unk> that an RFP in 2023 is needed.

Pure resources to be forecasted capacity needs to make continued progress towards Oregon's de carbonization targets, we will file Pge's first clean energy plan by the end of March outlining PGE strategy to meet decarbonization targets under the Oregon law, along with the 2023 integrated.

Resource plan.

We will recommend the initiation of the 2023 RFP process by the third quarter of 2023, and hope to select the final shortlist and submit a request for acknowledgment to the PUC by the end of 2023.

Okay.

Turning to slide nine which shows our refreshed capital forecast through 2027 as a reminder figures for 2023 through 2027 do not include any potential expenditures related to possible ownership from the remainder of the current RFP or future RFP cycles.

Slide 10 includes a visual illustration of investment opportunities through the end of the decade to meet our 2000 22030 emission standards for additional context, our 2022 capital expenditures were $811 million, including accruals exceeding the previous guidance of 700.

$50 million as we.

Our efforts to modernize and optimize the grid deployed technology to drive efficiencies and invest in critical infrastructure.

Turning to slide 11, you can see that our rate base trajectory through 2027, considering both rate base capital expenditures in the Clearwater project and when considering RFP opportunities additional RFP opportunities at an assumed 25% ownership.

<unk>, which could be conservative.

The illustrative capital investment trajectory plus additional opportunities stemming from the current and future RFP cycles will enable us to achieve our 5% to 7% long term earnings growth guidance. This is an opportunity outlook and not reflective of earnings growth as the plan requires equity and debt capital to consummate.

Turning to slide 12, our balance sheet remains strong and we continue to maintain our investment grade credit ratings a company by a stable credit outlook total available liquidity at December 31, 2022 is $938 million and I'll note. This does not include counting.

Any of the equity forward that is now in place.

As we look ahead to 2023, we anticipate a debt issuance of up to $250 million later in the year. In addition to the $100 million funded earlier this year we.

We will continue to issue debt under our green financing framework whenever possible to continue our practice of tying debt financings to our sustainability strategy through capital investments.

We also anticipate issuing common equity in 2023 under the existing equity forward sale agreement executed in 2022, beginning with approximately $300 million in the first quarter remaining draws against the equity forward will be completed by the end of the agreements 24 months.

The term.

Turning to slide 13, we are initiating full year 2023, adjusted earnings guidance of $2 60 to.

To $2 75 per diluted share.

I'd like to walk through a few key drivers that will help us achieve this target in 2023 as I mentioned previously we remain confident in the fundamentals of the service territory and anticipate continued growth in demand led by our high Tech and digital customers with more modest increases in residential and commercial load.

Bind we assumed two 5% to 3% weather adjusted retail load growth in 2023.

While our total 2023 O&M guidance midpoint stands at 705. This includes approximately $45 million.

Deferral amortization that will be offset in other income statement lines.

Net of December <unk> $655 million of O&M is roughly flat with the normalized 2022, O&M of $659 million, which excludes the impact of the 2022, <unk> deferral of reduction and storm costs offset in revenue.

2022, O&M included significant efforts to streamline our workforce improve.

Improved productivity through the organization.

To provide the highest quality service to customers. This hard work and our lessons learned will yield efficiency in 2023 and will help our cost management strategy.

Examples.

Trim 3300 line miles.

<unk>.

Vegetation to reduce wildfire risk, we replaced and installed over 8200 power Poles, we launched an outage priority authorization automation program aligning crew scheduling with restoration priorities.

The decrease the average duration of business impacting events by over 13%.

Savings thousands of person hours through automation, a repeatable or we achieved a reduction of $1 3 million.

Customer outage minutes.

We accomplished a time to complete customer design projects from 80 to 60 days and our line ups productivity increased 40%.

Looking back since 2019, our core O&M. After deferrals has grown in line with inflation during the same timeframe. We've absorbed a significant set of increases in wildfire mitigation expenses, while increasing our customer footprint by 5%.

Deliveries went up in that time period by 10%.

Two energy retail customers and the rate base increased 24% since 2019 and.

The accelerating how we serve customers and reaching scale of the business all while keeping heads head count flat.

2023 represents critical investment year that will strengthen PGE for sustained long term growth in years to come we remain confident in our growth trajectory and to reiterate our long term earnings growth of 5% to 7% based off of 2023 adjusted actual.

Our results to be clear our outlook for the.

Our long term growth prospects is unchanged using our actual 2022 result, as a starting point provides clarity for the calculation is how and how we believe we are able to move more meaningful more meaningfully into the range by 2025.

We are also reaffirming our long term dividend growth guidance of 5% to 7% for 2023.

We expect to be near or slightly above the top of our 60% to 70% payout ratio.

Regarding dividends our board recently declared a dividend of 40 525 per share our 2022 full year declared dividend was $1 79.

Which completed our 16th consecutive year of dividend growth with the last five years at a 5% five 8% compounded annual growth rate.

Due to dilution expected in 2023, the dividend payout ratio may be higher than historical ratios, but we expect this to be a temporary phenomenon.

As we turn our undivided attention to the year ahead, we remain committed to our core mission of providing clean reliable and affordable energy and executing our long term financial goals, while delivering value to our customers our communities and our shareholders.

Now operator, we're ready for questions.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

Withdraw your question. Please press star one again.

Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.

Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thank you. Thank you hey, good morning, thanks for the opportunity.

And I just wanted to come back to the extension here in the reaffirmation of 5% to seven kudos there I just want to clarify this.

Really really press a little bit obviously, 'twenty two youre rolling forward on actuals as the baseline here, but clearly it was towards the lower end.

The overall range here again, I just wanted to hear.

You say for instance came in towards the midpoint of 22 and that would've been the baseline here to reset the actuals would you still feel comfortable with the outlook in the five to seven I know theres, a little bit of a what if type question. So hopefully it's fair but.

With that said I just want to make sure we're crystal clear about any potential signaling.

Moving to 'twenty, two actual given where you came against the actual range with respect to the input of cascading implications on the 5% to seven.

Yeah, Julian it's Jim.

I don't consider this a rebase thing I would say that.

The context here is when we released it.

New earnings guidance in the third quarter, we didn't have.

<unk> 22.

Numbers right and so I think it's quite fair for people to take the mid point.

Of the range and start to extrapolate from there, but I hope we were always clear on basing it off the 22 actual results and as you are implying we had a rough ended the year given weather and volatility.

But the bottom line is I would.

Still be comfortable.

In achieving the 5% to 7% range, even if earnings were a little bit higher adjusted earnings were a little bit higher in 2022, the opportunity that we have to grow the business is still significant we feel that we'd be very comfortable inside the 5% to 7% range and so while it's a hypothetical question.

And we're not using the hypothetical to base the forward look.

So pretty comfortable comfortable and pretty confident in the five to seven range, even if you did.

So Julien underlining the 5% to 7% long term is really our fundamental service territory growth.

In terms of customer usage.

A 2% and we're very fortunate to have a strong technology sector in our area and we also have up to serve that we see growing need for renewable energy wind solar battery storage longer term, even some pumped hydro storage.

In addition, the growth that we're seeing is putting pressure on our distribution infrastructure and we're also seeing replacement of aging assets.

Belting out of bi directional smart grid power plant and then we're also seeing increasing needs for transmission. So all of those projects combined with a strong load growth makes us confident in the 5% to 7% long term.

And actually just sort of talking about the 2% load growth here I mean, just could you elaborate a little bit is it shaped differently considering some of the headlines we've seen here in early 'twenty three.

Typically what that does to the tech sector et cetera, or is that reading too much into the outlook here.

No. That's a really good question and it's something that we've looked a lot at ourselves near term, we feel very confident in the growth rate because much of the capacity is already built out by the semiconductor as well as digital customers. So.

It's really it's really filling out cap.

Capital investment to date has already spent.

They're continuing to contact with their customers.

We have not seen it.

Turn down in the semiconductor area I would note that most of the semiconductor.

Work that we do here for our customers relates to R&D and other cutting edge developments. So if you think of having a Lam research in our service territory as well as much of the R&D areas for Intel and others, it's not quite the same commodity semiconductor manufacturing that you see another.

States, we're very fortunate and as we look at the investments from the chipset and the support the state of Oregon has given to this sector were fairly bullish.

Got it excellent and then just the cadence of development I mean, obviously you guys are quite constructive on the setup.

On some of the renewable developments here, but in terms of the procurements themselves and data points from a near term perspective to kind of give you information.

John .

U S specific ability to own some of these opportunities.

That was in Jim's comments can you review that brief here, just where we stand and what should be the expectation here on those data points here in the next few months.

Yes, sure Julien so so we're working towards the.

The capacity.

Out of resets right now we have been working.

Towards that for a number of months now I would say that given this chat.

Challenging macro environment that we're in.

It just takes it is taking a little longer but we are literally.

Call it.

So way by the end of the first half of the year.

So still have a lot of confidence there that will still be a very substantial capital investment.

Stay tuned for for that but.

As we get closer to announcing that we will also provide updates on how we're going to finance that as well but.

I think that that's an opportunity that.

We'll be there there may even be some generation opportunity in this first set but even if it's not there.

Roll into the next RFP, which will begin very soon after the midyear point as well so as we've discussed in the past we're going to be an almost constant procurement cycle for the next four or five years as we get towards the end of the deck.

A decade to achieve the D card goals so.

We've added a couple of slides here for you.

Slides 10, and 11 in particular, which show you the the opportunity set that's there these are numbers that.

Our embedded in our in our working group in our clean energy plan that you're about to see.

And we've also provided illustrative rate base growth and I made the point in the commentary that.

Thats the eight 5% CAGR does that include financing so it's not a surrogate for earnings call, but it just goes to show you the.

Capital investment needed here.

In addition to Clearwater that we have in front of us So we're really optimistic.

And this is really at a 25% ownership.

Right, So I think.

A lot of folks, including yourself, we're asking for a bit of a a.

A bit of an illustration on how we looked at that and I think.

This could be conservative.

Excellent well. Thank you Jim Murray I appreciate the time today, and we'll speak to you soon alright.

Sure. Thank you.

Okay, great. Thank you please standby for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Sophie Karp with Keybanc. Your line is open.

Hi, Good morning, Thank you for taking my question.

Two I wanted to ask you about the.

Slide 11 here in particular, which you just referenced.

Very helpful in terms of showing.

Upside scenario.

And so you guys outlined the potential for eight 5% CAGR for the rate base here with certain assumptions, but that sort of translating that into potential.

Yes.

CAGR upside in.

Just curious how you think about.

Potential puts and takes here in this upside scenario and financing equity needs and how they think.

Thats very lag under various scenarios, how would that translate into the <unk>.

<unk> CAGR and when would we have some more clarity on that.

Yes, Sophie Thanks for the question I think we're going to be providing incremental clarity as we win.

Actual projects right and so since we have two more procurement cycles plus the wrap up of the current one.

I don't want to be presumptuous about that and presented earnings model based on.

This growth rate, but you can assume a couple of things I believe which is fair.

Is that a 25% alcohol and handicapping.

The total opportunity taking into account.

The generation that's owned by others.

<unk> and other other needs that are taken care of it will assume accretive projects that will assume that we finance that a 50 50 debt equity structure.

And you could assume too that as we enter 2023, the balance sheet repair will be almost done.

Will be will be a long way into into into adding to the equity ratio. So it's a bit of a clean start for growth in terms of the balance sheet. We've asked for a 50 50 ratio in this new rate case so.

I am not providing an earnings.

Model against this.

If I were to.

Look at this from that eight 5% illustration that we have that's what we called illustration that guidance you would have to you'd have to assume.

50% equity and 50% debt, but this at least gives you the numbers upon which to do that modeling.

Alright, thank you.

So fair to say that you would go about issuing equity in a similar fashion as your missile boats have gone about it so far.

And then maybe not hedge evolutions.

Maybe not.

I think <unk>.

Given the nature of these projects, which are mostly build own transfer I think that will continue that means that we won't want to over <unk>. The projects on day, one because they haven't been built yet.

So what we will do more than likely is use forward equity and private placed bonds.

With also delayed draws so both features both markets have delayed draw opportunities. So we can actually fund the progress payments with equity and debt as we go that will be the best and most efficient structure to fund the projects. So we have no negative arbitrage if you get my drift.

So.

I certainly like I, certainly like the at the market program.

As a technique as we go into the latter part of the year. So that's what I'm thinking right now.

Thank you.

Thank you my other question is more.

I guess philosophical question.

So pretty significant power alright, any of your questions about acuity in power and gas that you guys have seen.

As you highlight it as you look.

The build out plans in the region, particularly for electric generation right.

Would you say that the way the generation stack is poised to evolve here is likely to reduce or increase this volatility in the future.

Yes, that's a great question and I think what we're going to see is.

The significant increase in distributed energy resources.

Rooftop solar in particular, but also more locational based battery storage will not necessarily.

Help the seasonal changes.

Particularly those that can be caused by multiyear drought, but will certainly reduce the fluctuations on a 24 hour basis, as we have solar periods versus wind periods versus hydro periods.

And I think youll see overall less volatility, but we could see more longer term seasonal issues, particularly with multiyear drought periods of our multi year high precipitation high wind periods.

So as we look looking forward youre asking the million dollar question that we're all trying to figure out.

What we take is so what I'd say is in all of our set of solutions.

Looking at every alternative because as we move forward, particularly with the growth we have we're going to need the diversity of all of those resources.

And the ability to respond and maintain reliability at the lowest cost for customers.

Most expensive way to handle the transition would be a great a great shock for customers and we need to be prudent here, particularly as we're seeing higher and higher reliability issues.

I would also say we're working much more closely across the entire last in terms of integrated markets in terms of partnerships.

<unk> between high Tech companies large and small.

Two regional and global hydro players out of debt.

<unk>.

Again, it all above set of solutions.

Thank you I appreciate the color.

Thank you.

Please standby for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Alex <unk> with Mizuho Group. Your line is open.

Good morning, Hi, Thank you very much good morning.

So we've seen high natural gas prices kind of across the Pacific northwest, even as we've seen decreases in other areas from other hubs in the country.

Is there any ability you have to diversify from your hub.

Yes, there is actually one of the things Thats really interesting is.

What happened this last December .

Whenever things spike as they did at the confluence of multiple events.

Clearly you had very hot weather.

Turning very cold quickly without the period that many of the storage facilities across the west Greater Tobey refill.

Also had pretty dry December <unk> as many hydro participants had actually sold forward energy and needed to fulfill those contracts putting unusual pressure on the market.

Then you had as Jim mentioned.

Super Cold weather and usage spiked so I think as we look going forward, how we create.

Stronger hedging strategies more diversity and resources.

Additional partnerships again for more diversity is all part of our strategy as we move forward and we'll have an incremental benefit. The other is as we looked at last year.

We had forecast very strong industrial demand driven by semiconductor industry cloud computing and other digital capabilities.

But it has exceeded even our expectations and so as we go into 2023, we've really re rack the way, we think about our customer load and.

Different customer segments, and so that will give us that's much more aligned to our hedging strategies throughout the entire year that is already in place.

So yes, we're doing more than we already have done much of that.

Perfect. Thanks for that color and then just in terms of guidance. Both in 2023, and then kind of over the long term with the five to seven.

Basically what gets you either to the higher low end, both near and long term and then is there any bias with how things stand at the moment within that range.

I would say that there is no particular bias.

At this moment.

Our leverage to the RFP opportunities that we have really those those those are where we're going to.

<unk>.

Reach the upper limits of that guidance range, but I would say increasingly even since.

Last October when we first talked about increasing this guidance range that we are more confident now that we could be comfortably inside that range with what's in front of us I'll leave it more qualitative at the moment.

Just.

I'll tell you that I think that our confidence level has actually increased in the last five or six months.

Also would add that we are really well poised.

To bring to Oregon and to our customers.

Significant federal funding, whether it be for reliability, and resiliency and let's say brick grants from FEMA.

Whether it be in infrastructure grants and partnerships.

With transportation organizations across the state of Oregon, and the Iga, whether it be in terms of clean energy through the IRB we.

We are focused and being successful in these areas. We've already started with a number of applications and are really working hard to make a difference as we go through a significant transition to <unk>.

Do seek otherwise customer price impact.

Clean energy transition and I think I would add two things to marry his commentary number one.

Is that of course, given that the treasury rules on the.

Inflation reduction act or not yet promulgated we think theres upside, we're just not sure how to calculate that yet where the market is going to monetize the credit. So that's point number one and point number two I am really pleased.

About how we've attacked the federal programs that are available.

Our concept papers in our grant applications.

So far put against $945 million in total project opportunity.

And we haven't had one concept paper.

But rejected in the way. It works is you submit a concept paper if youre concept paper has accepted you are invited to make a bid.

Had no.

Ah rejections of the concept papers.

Concept paper rejects are at 50% right now so all of our applications and concept papers. So far we're moving forward. So I think that's a good sign.

Okay.

Okay. Thank you very much and then just finally, we've seen headwinds obviously across the industry, whether it be natural gas interest rates inflation etcetera.

I was just hoping you could provide any sort of color on your assumptions on when some of these headwinds may abate going forward.

Just given the reaffirmation of the five to 700 today.

Well your guess is as good as ours, we are expecting to see continued inflation.

<unk> 2023, hoping that it will moderate but literally particularly when it comes to electrical equipment in particular transformers and other.

The capital investment, we're continuing to see.

Deep demand.

Robust prices and working very hard to improve our processes, our systems and our efficient deployment of all of that equipment to.

To mitigate the impact of all of those external factors on our customer base I, just can't guess right. It's too hard, but we can just do what we've been doing we've grown deliveries, 10% customer count five.

Kept our head count flat.

And we've grown the rate base pretty significantly right. So we're getting scale in the business.

So that's that.

The continued focus that we have against a difficult macro environment.

Excellent. Thank you I'll leave it there and good luck with the year.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.

Please standby for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Your line is open.

Good morning, Thank you.

Thank you.

Just on the 20 <unk> following up on that 2023 year, rather 2021, RFP the projects to come.

When you break out that $3 75, and then the remaining.

Are there technology differences that.

Youre looking at.

And that $3 75, and then that remaining up to 200.

Yes, yes, Travis there are right so.

In addition to the wind and possibly more wind.

Solar of course.

There is an opportunity for substantial battery.

And there we're working on some right now.

We hope to announce by the end of the first half there is one pump storage project in the acknowledgment list that's there.

And when we turn the crank on the next RFP and in.

The middle of this year call. It I'll call. It July one for.

For pointers.

We'll see additional technologies, where we're technology agnostic right. It's all about pricing for the consumers managing the load on the grid and integrating them efficiently. So we expect to see bore.

Our diversity as we go.

Okay, but all of those would be.

I guess for lack of a better term traditional renewable hydrogen we're not load management or anything like that though right.

Yes.

I think theres a lot of D are going on but not necessarily as part of this procurement process I also think.

We will we will see additional players come in so the dynamics could evolve competitive dynamics could evolve here.

This decade.

Kohl's so.

Stay tuned for that and we will keep you updated.

Okay, perfect and then one longer term that the range you provided.

Through 2000 32.2 to $3 one.

What are the underlying assumptions as item I'm thinking you probably have that same type load growth, but are there retirements and that assumption or are there other.

Load shaping assumption within.

That number.

What's embedded in that number for.

Or that range Hey, Travis.

It's a great question and there are a number of assumptions that's probably.

As we look forward there is more variability than we've ever seen in our industry. We do not have any retirements included in any of those assumptions of any of our assets with the exception.

We are planning on getting out of our colstrip investments and not having that energy delivered to our customers here in Oregon.

We also have and this relates a little bit here earlier question to Jim we are fairly advanced when it comes to <unk> power plant. So we're incorporating distributed energy resources, some of which we own many of which are customers out and will increasingly owned in the future. We also have a number of load management programs, which help with some of our <unk>.

Hedging.

And we're also looking at.

The adoption of rapidly in this area of electric vehicles as you know, Oregon in our service territory is one of the top five liter is the EV penetration in the country and so there is a number of items that are impacting our load forecast at our asset growth forecast over time.

Okay perfect I appreciate it.

Yes.

Thank you.

Please standby for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Good morning, everybody it's Nate.

It's Nathan Richardson on for Nick Thank.

Thank you for taking my question.

I just wanted to ask what's assumed for the P. Chem in 'twenty three if you haven't covered that already is.

Is it the baseline or is it still a headwind there.

Okay as we look at our as we look at our Tam and we forecast basically.

The annual update tariff so theres no forecast I do think that as you look at our power cost and you look at the entire region. It's important to note.

Where you are with hydro condition is 55% of the energetic energy generated across the northwest Hydro based and we're roughly you can see it in the 10-K and our.

Disclosures are roughly a little bit over 80% and that's low but its in particular low in comparison to last year, where you saw mid <unk> at 110% and so we have we have forecast that was lower hydro levels into our energy prices.

For this coming year.

And I think thats, an important sort of calibration in terms of the risk balancing up 2023, So one way to short handed as we entered the year flat based on the.

<unk>, which is the baseline if you want to call it that of the PJM.

Obviously things change we saw that last year, but essentially are reset at the beginning of every January one.

Great. Thank you very much.

Youre welcome.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of James Kennedy with Guggenheim Guggenheim Partners.

Moment.

Your line is open hey.

Hey, guys good morning.

Thanks.

I apologize if I missed this a little earlier, but the slippage of the 2021 items in the.

RFP process, what what is actually driving that is it.

The.

The bids that were rebid is it.

The deadline for the RFP itself I guess, just what would drive that scheduled for this.

Just normal commercial negotiations in a time of extraordinary supply chain challenges.

We've had a number of.

Our solar projects recently that have been laid as they have been laid across the country and we want to make certain that we are negotiating that way all of these projects will be delivered as expected.

And in a challenging environment out there, but nothing unusual.

It's a question of a few months James.

A lot of our business.

Point of view of projects.

I am not concerned at all and also batteries are unusual in the sense that they are modular right. So we're always looking at the grid and what kind of storage and capacity is needed around the grid.

We're able to work with the vendors to size those projects appropriately based on the latest information we have so as you go further in time, you'll have more information about the grid and you can actually design around that but we're talking about very modest differences and timeframe.

Okay perfect.

And then just one kind of nuanced question.

I really like slide 11, but I'm just curious.

One of the footnotes you assumed about 25% ownership of <unk>.

The midpoint I guess, how did you kind of arrive at that number.

Yeah. So.

So we stepped back.

We wanted to provide this sort of illustration to help you understand what the opportunity is.

Wanted to be somewhat conservative, but also take into account what we saw happening in the rest of the market the ppas.

Third party agreements community solar, but they are I mean, you name. It right. So we tried to have a holistic look at what we would need to do to Descartes Kohl's.

Possible and so I think over time I would say that we won a higher percentage and I'll, let Maria add onto this because of her history here in terms of utility scale generation, we've been much more successful on that but this 25% is more of a piece of the pie of the <unk>.

Holistic energy mix.

That we have.

We are sometimes surprised ourselves with the number.

Sales builds our ownership opportunities we've had through rfps.

And I think it's because we take very seriously the.

They need to be cost competitive and least cost least risk.

And we work very hard to make sure that our bids are setup.

The customer price.

Impacts first and foremost as.

As well as the overall functionality with the portfolio so.

So hopefully we will be as successful as we have been in the past, but it's a highly competitive which is important in terms of driving cost to their lowest levels.

As a challenge thrilled with significant energy transition, that's something we need to always say constantly vigilant.

Makes sense thanks, guys.

Thank you.

Im showing no further questions in the queue.

I would now like to turn the call back to Maria Pope for closing remarks.

Thank you very much for joining us today, we appreciate your interest in Portland General and we look forward to seeing you all soon and I very much appreciate the robust questions. Thank you.

Okay makes sense.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now.

Correct.

Two reasons lower Johan during Q&A, you can down.

The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A you can dial one one.

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Good morning, everyone and welcome to Portland General Electric company's fourth quarter 2022 earnings results Conference call.

Today is Thursday February 16 2023.

This call is being recorded and such as all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the Speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer period.

If you would like to ask a question. During this time simply press star one one on your telephone keypad.

If you would like to withdraw your question. Please press star one again.

If you do intend to ask a question. Please avoid the use of speaker phones.

For opening remarks, I will turn the conference call over to Portland General Electric Senior director of Finance Investor Relations and risk management.

Don.

<unk>. Please go ahead Sir.

Referring to slide two some of our remarks. This morning will constitute forward looking statements. We caution you that such statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially from our expectations for a description of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our earnings press release.

Our most recent periodic reports on forms 10-K, and 10-Q, which are available on our website.

Leading our discussion today are Maria Pope President and CEO , and Jim Ajello Senior Vice President of Finance, CFO Treasurer and CCL.

Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions.

Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Maria.

Thank you Jerry and good morning, Thank you all for joining us today.

With slide four ill start by discussing our 2022 full year and fourth quarter results as well as touch on a few key drivers.

Overall, we delivered solid results for the year despite significant challenges.

We reported GAAP net income of $233 million or $2 60 per share for the full year of 2022.

After adjusting for the first quarter 2014 impact of the 'twenty 'twenty wildfire and Covid earnings test write off now.

non-GAAP net income was $245 million or $2 74 per diluted share.

This compares with $244 million or $2 72 per share in 2021.

For the fourth quarter, GAAP net income of $60 million or <unk> 56 cents per share.

This compares with $66 million or <unk> 73 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021.

As we were specifically impacted by severe late December storms, and extraordinary natural gas and energy market volatility.

In December natural gas prices at regional hubs peaked at over $55 per ml Btu.

An average mid C power prices rose to $265 per megawatt hour.

Over five times, what we experienced in 2021.

The risks and impacts of market volatility are squarely in our focus.

We've made improvements to procurement.

Bottling and have entered into additional hedges there.

We're also more actively using natural gas storage at the north mist facility to mitigate market volatility.

Over the last year, our hedging program was effective.

And is also being improved upon.

While 2022 prices at the mid sea increased by nearly 60%.

Price for our customers paid.

Sure.

Only increased by 14%.

As hedges roll off further energy market related price increases includes seven 7% in 2023.

On a forecast of four 5% in 2024.

Load growth continues at a rapid pace, increasing 2% over last year.

Hi Tech and digital customers.

Driving this increase with industrialized growing at 10, 6%.

Offsetting this impact is the customer mix shifts with a return to lower residential pre COVID-19 usage.

From an operating perspective I.

I could not be proud of the hard work and dedication of our team this year.

And driving operational efficiencies and navigating extraordinary weather conditions.

Excluding the impacts of increased wildfire mitigation expenses and deferral items year over year generation transmission distribution O&M was up less than 1%.

And administrative and other O&M was up one 2%.

As we are laser focused on cost management.

I'll set the impacts of inflation and other cost.

Moving to slide five.

Our commitment to affordability remains steadfast and.

And we will continue to manage costs aggressively.

We are streamlining our work processes simplifying.

Leveraging technology and improving productivity.

We have upped our game with regards to ageing infrastructure and compliance.

Placing and installing critical assets to strengthen our reliability.

On the technology front, we've deployed digital tools to enable operational efficiencies and visibility.

Better resource deployment and improved customer service.

We've decreased the average duration of business impacting events by over 13%.

Thousands of person hours through automation of repeatable tasks.

We're also using machine learning to improve restoration forecasting, giving our customers greater clarity, while we reduce $1 3 million outage minutes in 2022.

We are cognizant as well of our broader social impact and responsibility.

Our spending with diverse suppliers increased significantly helping to sustain and strengthen our communities.

Jim will go into more detail on our O&M as we are again planning to be largely flat in 2023 excluding.

Excluding the impacts of increased wildfire mitigation expenses and deferral items.

Today.

We filed our 2024 rate case, I should actually say yesterday, we filed our 2024 rate case with.

With the PUC, which includes a 14% price increase.

40% of our request is related to reliability resiliency and customer required capital investment.

30% is driven by higher natural gas and purchase LNG prices.

The last 30% reflective of higher compliance costs and inflation.

As well as operating and financing costs.

In addition, we're seeking an authorization for important work to protect and mitigate against climate and significant event risks.

Such as wildfires.

An important aspect of our general rate case is addressing our power cost adjustment mechanism for pecan.

We have proposed modifications to the power costs regulatory framework to facilitate organized Oregon de carbonization goals.

And better reflect current and future operating conditions.

This is not a risk transfer.

Rather our proposal will create a more durable framework that sandbox customers buy fairly balancing benefits and costs and improving the overall mechanism.

As in the past, we look forward to collaborative discussions with the OTC and stakeholders.

Especially during this period of enormous transformation and significant capital investment.

Last quarter as you know, we announced the Clearwater wind project.

One of our benchmark generation bids.

We are optimistic about the potential ownership opportunities as we continue to negotiate the remaining non admitted dispatch of our capacity RFP.

So you expect to procure 375 megawatts and needs that was identified in the 2021 RFP.

We expect these negotiations to conclude in the first half of this year.

In March we.

We will file our combined clean energy plan, an integrated resource plan.

As we've shared previously these plans will incorporate markets overall de carbonization goals and Pge's associated actions.

In the second half of the year, we expect to launch additional rfps for renewable generation and not admitting capacity.

Linemen with those plans.

As we continue to lead the way to a clean energy future.

Reliability and affordability have been and will always be key to this transformation.

With the passage of the infrastructure investment and jobs Act and the inflation reduction Act, we look forward to working in partnership with local communities tribal entities technology companies and others to secure federal funding for climate and infrastructure investments.

Helping to reduce customer bill impacts.

In 2022, we submitted a $180 million in federal grant applications and concept papers and.

And then just the first six weeks of 2023, we have submitted an additional 300 million of concept papers.

This nearly $480 million in grant applications and concept papers are in support of projects totaling approximately $945 million targeted towards projects that will range from new technologies that integrate ever increasing amounts of renewable energy to large scale transmission.

For the full year 2023.

We expect earnings to be in the range of $2 60.

The $2 75 per share.

2023 represents an investment year.

The equity issuance to reset our balance sheet and regulatory lag are temporary headwinds and.

And our 2020 for Trc in RFP investment opportunities established a clear path to strong performance.

Looking beyond 2023, we are confident in our long term earnings growth of 5% to 7% driven by strong loan and customer growth and attractive capital investment profile and improved operational performance that enabled exceptional customer service.

In summary.

Our performance in 2022 latest strong foundation for long term growth.

We advanced critical de Carbonization projects navigated historic power market volatility and executed well and face a severe weather.

As we look ahead, we are confident that by remaining focused on providing safe.

Liable affordable.

Clean energy to all customers, we will deliver strong financial results.

Now I'll turn it over to Jim. Thank you Maria and good morning, everyone. Our 2022 results reflect both the upside of our service territory, but also the challenges we face as a region undertakes the energy transformation journey strong load growth continued but we also faced difficult power market volatility and severe weather.

That impacted our performance.

First some context for operating conditions, we witnessed continued demand growth as well as changing load patterns as habits have shifted from the height of the pandemic in 2021 to more normalized usage in 2022 overall 2022 loads increased 2% weather adjusted.

Compared to 2021 on a non weather adjusted basis total load increased three 4% year over year, driven by cold periods in the spring and winter in a historically warm summer in 2022, Portland saw the hottest July and August temperatures on record and extreme winter temperatures.

In December caused a new winter peak for the first time since $19 98.

Residential usage increased one 4% on a non weather adjusted basis, but decreased one.

One 4% weather adjusted.

COVID-19 and related usage trends moderated from the elevated 2021 levels residential customer counts increased one 2% during the year.

Commercial usage increased <unk>, 1% non weather adjusted but decreased.

0.5% weather adjusted as commercial growth has slowed slightly in the aftermath of the pandemic compared to the high growth levels in this segment in 2021.

Industrial class continued on its rapid growth trajectory with industrial loads, increasing 10, 9% on a weather adjusted basis or 10, 6% weather adjusted.

Hi Tech sectors steady expansion in our region continued.

Similar to much of the country, we have seen some signals a moderation in our regional economy.

We remain confident in the fundamentals of our service territory.

But demand during cold weather stretches and sustained high prices created financial impacts that could not be entirely overcome during this volatile time.

Despite these conditions, our financial liquidity remains strong and we closed 2022, having served 39% of retail customer load from specified non carbon emitting energy sources during the year.

You will also remember that in fourth quarter 2021, we had already surpassed the $30 million upper dead band in the PJM, creating a unique quarter over quarter cost comparison.

Given this context, I'll turn to slide six and cover our financial performance year over year.

We experienced a 40 <unk>.

Increase in total revenues compared to 21 <unk>.

Including a 63%.

Increase in EPS due to the three 4% increase in deliveries.

Led by growing demand from our high Tech and digital industrial customers, partially offset by a <unk> <unk> decrease in EPS.

Changes due to changes in customer price composition with industrial load growth outweighing residential and commercial load.

Power costs increased and net <unk> compared to 2021 made up of 27% increase.

Attributed to the headwinds in 2021 net of the 2021 P. Chem deferral that we normalize for this comparison.

Higher market prices, driven by resource scarcity and peak periods, primarily driven by serving load during periods of severe weather.

Market volatility drove a 19 EPS decrease.

And <unk> decreased due to higher purchase volumes to serve load in 'twenty, two and two cent decrease due to the change incurred as part of the 2021 PJM referral settlement.

Education management and grid hardening efforts that increased in 2022.

<unk> decreased due to higher interest expense driven by increased long term debt balances throughout 2022 with higher interest rates, including our Q3 2021 in Q4 2022 debt issuances.

A 9% decrease driven by the local flowed through tax adjustment recognized in 'twenty, one which did not recur in 2022.

We had a net <unk> decrease reflecting offsetting impacts from a handful of items as follows a 7% decrease due to lower returns on the non qualified benefit trust compared to 2021, a <unk> <unk> decrease due to lower <unk>.

Driven by lower equip balances in 2022.

<unk> decreased due to the settlement gain the buyout proportion of Pge's post retirement medical plan and finally, <unk> <unk> decrease due to other miscellaneous items.

Lastly, we experienced a 14% decrease to GAAP EPS as a result of the application of the earnings test on major 2020 deferrals.

Stablish and the final 2022, GIC order, which brings us to our GAAP EPS of $1 60 per diluted share after adjusting for the 14th impact of the 2022 GSE earnings test deferral reduction we reach our 2022 non-GAAP EPS.

$2 74 per diluted share.

Moving to slide seven as noted earlier yesterday, we filed a general rate case with the Oregon Public utility Commission to review our cost of providing service.

If approved new prices to take effect in January 2024.

<unk> filing requests.

Recovery of essential capital investments of nearly $859 million and upgrading the grid to improve reliability resiliency and capability to deliver safe reliable and clean electricity to customers. This includes the further de hydro project, which was placed into service in January of 2023.

Hi.

The requested price increase increase reflects a rate base of $6 3 billion.

An increase of $859 million or 16%.

A return on equity of nine 8% a capital structure of 50% debt, 50% equity a cost of debt of $4, three 2% and our cost of capital of seven 6%.

As Mario discussed the filing also includes a proposed modification of the <unk> the <unk>.

<unk> provides a 90 10 sharing of power cost variances without a dead band mechanism. Additionally.

Additionally, the proposal provides for full recovery of costs prudently incurred during specific reliability contingency events.

Is carried to the following year or continued collection or credit.

Kozol is a fair and balanced one and aligns the interests of our customers with the company we.

We look forward to engaging with stakeholders during the rate case process, which would take about 10 months with a procedural schedule publication expected through the coming weeks.

On to slide eight for an update of our 2021 RFP Clearwater project announced in the fourth quarter is now under construction with project completion is still estimated by the end of 2023.

You had touched on the ongoing negotiations relating to the remaining non emitting sketchable capacity and I'll reiterate that this includes pge's benchmark projects negotiations are going well and we continue to be optimistic about our ownership opportunities for battery storage resources.

We are hopeful to share the outcome of these negotiations in the first half of 2023.

With the conclusion of the 2021 RFP on the Horizon. We are now beginning to turn attention to the 2023 resource planning and procurement processes. We recently filed notice with <unk> that at all.

RFP in 2023 is needed to procure resources to be forecasted capacity needs to make continued progress towards Oregon's de carbonization targets, we will file Pge's first clean energy plan by the end of March outlining PGE strategy to meet decarbonization targets under the Oregon law.

Along with the 2023 integrated resource plan.

We will recommend the initiation of the 2023 RFP process by the third quarter of 2023, and hope to select the final shortlist and submit a request for acknowledgment to the PUC by the end of 2023.

Okay.

<unk> 50 million as we continued our efforts to modernize and optimize the grid deploy technology to drive efficiencies and <unk>.

Best in critical infrastructure.

Rate, which could be conservative.

Turning to slide 12, our balance sheet remains strong.

We continue to maintain our investment grade credit ratings, accompanied by a stable credit outlook total available liquidity at December 31, 2022 is $938 million and I'll. Note. This does not include counting any of the equity forward that is now in place.

As we look ahead to 2023, we anticipate a debt issuance of up to $250 million later in the year. In addition to the $100 million funded earlier this year we.

We will continue to issue debt under our green financing framework whenever possible to continue our practice of tying debt financings to our sustainability strategy through capital investments.

The term.

Turning to slide 13, we are initiating full year 2023, adjusted earnings guidance of $2 60 to.

To $2 75 per diluted share.

5% to 3% weather adjusted retail load growth in 2023.

While our total 2023 O&M guidance midpoint stands at 705. This includes approximately $45 million.

Deferral amortization that will be offset in other income statement lines.

Net of December <unk> $655 million of O&M is roughly flat with the normalized 2022, O&M up $659 million, which excludes the impact of the 2022, <unk> deferral of reduction and storm costs offset in revenue.

2022, O&M included significant efforts to streamline our workforce.

<unk> productivity through the organization.

To provide the highest quality service to customers. This hard work and our lessons learned will yield efficiency in 2023 and will help our cost management strategy just a few examples.

Trim 3300 line miles.

Okay.

The decrease the average duration of business impacting events by over 13%.

Savings thousands of person hours through automation, a repeatable or we achieved a reduction of $1 3 million.

Customer outage minutes.

We accomplished a time to complete customer design projects from 80 to 60 days and our line ops productivity increased 40%.

Deliveries went up in that time period by 10%.

Two energy retail customers and the rate base increased 24% since 2019 and.

The accelerating how we serve customers and reaching scale of the business all while keeping head head count flat.

Our results to be clear our outlook for the long term growth prospects is unchanged using our actual 2022 result, as a starting point provides clarity for the calculation is how and how we believe we are able to move more meaningful more meaningfully into the range by <unk> <unk>.

Thousand 25.

We are also reaffirming our long term dividend growth guidance of 5% to 7% for 2023.

We expect to be near or slightly above the top of our 60% to 70% payout ratio.

Regarding dividends our board recently declared a dividend of 40 525 per share our 2022 full year declared dividend was $1 79.

Which completed our 16th consecutive year of dividend growth with the last five years at a 5% five 8% compounded annual growth rate.

Due to dilution expected in 2023, the dividend payout ratio may be higher than historical ratios, but we expect this to be a temporary phenomenon.

Now operator, we're ready for questions.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.

Withdraw your question. Please press star one again.

Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.

Our first question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin Smith with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Thank you thank you Keith.

Morning, Thanks for the opportunity.

And I just wanted to come back to the extent cheniere in the reaffirmation of 5% to seven kudos there I just want to clarify this.

Really really perhaps a little bit obviously 'twenty two youre rolling forward on actuals as the baseline here, but clearly it was towards the lower end.

The overall range here again I just wanted to hear if you say for instance came in towards the midpoint of 22 and that would've been the baseline here to reset the actuals would you still feel comfortable with the outlook in the five to seven I know theres, a little bit of a what if type question. So hopefully it's fair but.

With that said I just want to make sure we're crystal clear about any potential signaling.

Moving to 'twenty, two actual given where you came against the actual range with respect to the input of the cascading implications on the 5% to seven.

Yeah, Julian it's Jim.

I don't consider this a rebase thing I would say that.

The context here is when we released.

New earnings guidance in the third quarter, we didn't have <unk>.

<unk> 22.

Numbers right and so I think it's quite fair for people to take the mid point.

So, but the bottom line is.

Still be comfortable.

<unk> is achieving the 5% to 7% range, even if earnings were a little bit higher adjusted earnings were a little bit higher in 2022, the opportunity that we have to grow the business is still significant we feel that we'd be very comfortable inside the 5% to 7% range and so while it's a hypothetical question.

And we're not using the hypothetical to base the forward look.

Still pretty comfortable comfortable and very confident in the five to seven range, even if you did.

So Julien underlining the 5% to 7% long term is really our fundamental service territory growth.

Seeing as far as customer usage.

In addition, the growth that we're seeing is putting pressure on our distribution infrastructure and we're also seeing replacement of aging assets.

<unk> out of bi directional smart Hertzel power plant and then we're also seeing increasing needs for transmission. So all of those projects combined with a strong load growth makes us confident in the 5% to 7% long term.

And actually just sort of talk about the 2% load growth here I mean, just could you elaborate a little bit is it shaped differently considering some of the headlines we've seen here in early 'twenty three.

Typically what that does to the thanks, Victor et cetera, or is that reading too much into the outlook here.

It's really it's really filling out cap.

Capital investment that they have already spent.

They're continuing to contact with their customers.

We have not seen it.

Turn down in the semiconductor area I would note that most of the semiconductor.

Work that we do here for our customers will lead to R&D and other cutting edge developments. So if you think of having a Lam research in our service territory as well as much of the R&D areas for Intel and others, it's not quite the same commodity semiconductor manufacturing that you see another.

States, we're very fortunate and as we look at the investments from the chipset and the support the state of Oregon has given to this sector were fairly bullish.

Got it excellent and then just the cadence of developments I mean, obviously you guys are quite constructive on the setup.

On some of the renewable developments here, but in terms of the procurements themselves and data points from a near term perspective to kind of give you information.

John .

U S specific ability to own some of these opportunities.

That was in Jim's comments can you review that brief here, just where we stand and what should be the expectation here on those data points here in the next few months.

Yes, sure Julien so so we're working towards the.

The capacity.

Out of resets right now we have been working.

Towards that for a number of months now I would say that given this chat.

<unk> macro environment that we're in.

It just takes it is taking a little longer but we're literally.

Call. It a number of months away by the end of the first half of the year. So still have a lot of confidence there that will still be a very substantial capital investment.

Hey tuned for for that but.

As we get closer to announcing that we will also provide updates on how we're going to finance that as well but.

I think that that's an opportunity that.

We'll be there there may even be some generation opportunity in this first set but even if it's not there it will roll into the next RFP, which will begin very soon after the midyear point as well so as we've discussed in the past we're going to be in a almost constant procurement cycle for the next four or five years.

As we get towards the end of the decade to achieve the Descartes goals.

<unk> <unk>.

We've added a couple of slides here for you.

Slides 10, and 11 in particular, which show you the the opportunity set that's there these are numbers that.

Our embedded in our in our working group in our clean energy plan that you're about to see.

We've also provided illustrative rate base growth and I made the point in the commentary that.

The eight 5% CAGR does not include financing so it's not a surrogate for the earnings call, but it just goes to show you the working.

Capital investment needed here.

In addition to Clearwater that we have in front of us So we're really optimistic.

And this is really at a 25% ownership.

Right, So I think.

A lot of folks, including yourself, we're asking for a bit of a a.

A bit of an illustration on how we looked at that and I think.

This could be conservative.

Excellent well. Thank you Jim Murray I appreciate the time today, and we'll speak to you soon alright.

Sure. Thank you.

Okay, great. Thank you please standby for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Sophie Karp with Keybanc. Your line is open.

Hi, Good morning, Thank you for taking my questions.

Two I wanted to ask you about the.

Slide 11 here in particular, which you just referenced.

Helpful.

Terms of showing the upside scenario.

And so you guys outlined the potential for eight 5% CAGR for the rate base here with some assumptions, but that sort of translating that into the potential EPS.

AGR upside.

<unk>.

I'm just curious how you think about Patel.

Potential puts and takes here in this upside scenario on financing equity needs and how.

Thats very lag under various scenarios, how would that translate into the <unk>.

EPS CAGR and when would we have some more clarity on that.

Yes, Sophie Thanks for the question I think we're going to be providing incremental clarity as we win.

Actual projects right and so since we have two more procurement cycles plus the wrap up of the current one.

I don't want to be presumptuous about that and presented earnings model based on.

This growth rate, but you can assume a couple of things I believe which is fair.

Is that a 25% alcohol and handicapping.

The total opportunity taking into account.

The generation that's owned by others.

DDR and other other needs that are taken care of it will assume accretive projects that will assume that we finance that a 50 50 debt equity structure.

And you could assume too that as we enter 2023, the balance sheet repair will be almost done.

Will be will be a long way into into into adding to the equity ratio. So it's a bit of a clean start for growth in terms of the balance sheet. We've asked for a 50 50 ratio in this new rate case so.

I am not providing an earnings.

Model against this.

If I were to.

Look at this from that eight 5% illustration that we have that's why we called illustration that guidance you would have to you'd have to assume.

50% equity and 50% debt, but this at least gives you the numbers on which to do that modeling.

Alright, thank you.

Fair to say that you would go about issuing equity in a similar fashion of your must have gone about it so far.

And then maybe no hedge evolution.

Maybe not.

I think <unk>.

So what we will do more than likely is use forward equity and private placed bonds.

With also delayed draws so both features both markets have delayed draw opportunities. So we can actually fund the progress payments with equity is that as we go that will be the best and most efficient structure to fund the projects. So we have no negative arbitrage if you get my drift.

So I certainly like I, certainly like the at the market program.

As a technique as we go into the latter part of the year. So that's what I'm thinking right now.

Thank you.

Thank you my other question is more.

I guess philosophical question.

So a pretty significant.

Alright, and your questions are all acuity and power and the gas that you guys have seen.

As you highlighted.

Look.

The build out plans in the region, particularly for electric generation right. What do you say that the way the generation stack is poised to evolve here is likely to reduce or increase this volatility in the future.

Yes, that's a great question and I think what we're going to see is.

The significant increase in distributed energy resources.

Top solar in particular, but also more locational based battery storage, which will not necessarily.

Help the seasonal changes.

Particularly those that could be caused by multiyear drought.

It will certainly reduce the fluctuations on a 24 hour basis, as we have solar periods versus wind periods versus hydro periods.

And I think youll see overall less volatility, but we could see more longer term seasonal issues, particularly with multiyear drought periods of our multiyear high precipitation high wind periods.

So as we looked like forward Youre asking the question that we're all trying to figure out.

And what we think is so what I'd say is in all of our set of solutions.

We're looking at every alternative because as we move forward, particularly with the growth we have we're going to need the diversity of all of those resources.

And the ability to respond and maintain reliability at the lowest cost for our customers.

Expensive way to handle a transition would be a great a great shock for customers and we need to be prudent here, particularly as we are seeing higher and higher reliability issues.

I would also say we're working much more closely across the entire last in terms of integrated markets in terms of partnerships between putting high tech companies large and small.

Two regional and global Hydro players out of that were.

Again, it all above set of solutions.

Thank you I appreciate the color.

Thank you.

Thank you Lee.

Please standby for our next question.

Okay.

Our next question comes from the line of Alex <unk> with Mizuho Group. Your line is open.

Good morning, Hi, Thank you very much good morning.

So we've seen high natural gas prices kind of across the Pacific northwest, even as we've seen decreases in other areas from other hubs in the country.

Is there any ability you have to diversify from your hub.

Yes, there is and actually one of the things that's really interesting is.

What happened this last December Alistair.

Everything spike as they did at the confluence of multiple events.

Clearly you had very hot weather.

Turning very cold quickly without the period that many of the storage facilities across the west Greater Tobey refill.

You also had pretty dry December <unk> as many hydro.

Participants who had actually sold forward.

Energy and needed to fulfill those contracts putting unusual pressure on the market and then you had as Jim mentioned.

Super Cold weather and usage spiked so I think as we look.

Going forward, how we create stronger.

Stronger hedging strategies more diversity and resources.

Additional partnerships again for more diversity is all part of our strategy as we move forward and we will have an incremental benefit. The other is as we looked at last year.

We had a forecast very strong industrial demand driven by semiconductor industry cloud computing and other digital capabilities.

It has exceeded even our expectations and so as we go into 2023, we've really re rack the way we think about.

Our customer load and.

Different customer segments, and so that will give us much more aligned to our hedging strategies throughout the entire year that is already in place.

So yes, we're doing more than we already have done much of that.

Perfect. Thanks for that color and then just in terms of guidance. Both in 2023, and then kind of over the long term with the 5% to seven.

Basically what gets you either to the higher low end, both near and long term and then is there any bias with how things stand at the moment within that range.

I would say that there is no particular bias.

At this moment.

We are leveraged to the RFP opportunities that we have really those those those are where we're going to.

<unk>.

Reached the upper limits of that guidance range, but I would say increasingly even since.

And just.

I'll tell you that I think that our confidence level has actually increased in the last five or six months.

I also would add that we are really well poised.

To bring to Oregon and to our customers.

Significant federal funding, whether it be for reliability, and resiliency and let's say brick grants from FEMA.

Whether it be in infrastructure grant in partnerships.

With transportation organizations across the state of Oregon, and the Iga, whether it be in terms of clean energy through the IRI we.

Clean energy transition.

I think I would add two things to Murray as commentary number one.

Is that of course, given that the treasury rules on the.

Inflation reduction act or not yet promulgated we think theres upside, we're just not sure how to calculate that yet where the market is going to monetize the credits Thats point number one point number two I am really pleased.

About how we've attacked.

Federal programs that are available.

Our concept papers in our grant applications are so far put against $945 million in total project opportunity.

And we haven't had one concept paper.

But rejected in the way. It works is you submit a concept paper if youre concept paper has accepted you are invited to make a bid.

<unk> had no.

Rejections of the concept papers.

Concept paper rejects are at 50% right now so all of our applications and concept papers. So far we're moving forward. So I think that's a good sign.

Okay.

Okay. Thank you very much and then just finally, we've seen headwinds obviously across the industry, whether it would be natural gas interest rates inflation etcetera. I was just hoping you could provide any sort of color on your assumptions on when some of these headwinds may abate going forward.

Just given the reaffirmation of the five to seven today.

Well your guess is as good as ours, we are expecting to see continued inflation.

$3 2023, hoping that it will moderate but literally particularly when it comes to electrical equipment in particular transformers and other.

The capital investment, we're continuing to see.

Deep demand.

Robust prices and working very hard to improve our processes, our systems and our efficient deployment of all of that equipment to.

To mitigate the impact of all of those external factors on our customer base I, just can't guess right. It's too hard, but we can just do what we've been doing alright, we've grown deliveries, 10% customer count five.

Our head count flat.

And we've grown the rate base pretty significantly right. So we're getting scale in the business.

So that's the that's the continued focus that we have against a difficult macro environment.

Yes.

Excellent. Thank you I'll leave it there and good luck with the year.

Thank you. Thank you.

Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone.

Please standby for our next question.

Okay.

Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller with Morningstar. Your line is open.

Good morning, Thank you.

Thank you.

Just on the 20 <unk> following up on that 2023 year or rather 2021 RFP projects to come.

When you break out that $3 75, and then the remaining.

Are there technology differences that youre looking at.

That $3 75, and then that remaining up to 200.

Yes, yes, Travis there are right so.

In addition to the wind and possibly more wind.

Solar of course.

There is an opportunity for substantial battery.

And there we're working on some right now.

We hope to announce by the end of the first half.

Is one pump storage project in the acknowledgment list that's there.

And when we turn the crank on the next RFP and in the Middle of this year call. It I'll call. It July one for.

For pointers.

Our diversity as we go.

Okay, but all of those would be.

I guess for lack of a better term traditional renewable hydrogen we're not load management or anything like that though right.

Thanks, guys.

I think theres, a lot going on but not necessarily as.

As part of this procurement process I also think.

We will we will see additional players come in so the dynamics could evolve competitive dynamics could evolve here.

This decade.

Charles So.

Stay tuned for that and we'll keep you updated.

Okay, perfect and then one longer term that the range you provided.

2000, 32.2 to $3 one.

What are the underlying assumptions item I'm thinking you probably have that same type load growth, but are there retirements and that assumption or are there other.

Load shaping assumption within.

That number.

What's embedded in that number for.

Or that range to Travis.

It's a great question and there are a number of assumptions that's probably.

As we look forward there is more variability than we've ever seen in our industry. We do not have any retirements included in any of those assumptions of any of our assets with the exception.

We are planning on getting out of our call strip investments and not having that energy delivered to our customers here in Oregon.

We also have and this relates a little bit to your earlier question to Jim We are fairly advanced when it comes to a virtual power plant. So we're incorporating distributed energy resources, some of which we own but many of which are customers out and will increasingly own in the future. We also have a number of load management programs, which help with some of our.

Hedging.

And we're also looking at.

Okay perfect I appreciate it.

Yes.

Thank you.

Please standby for our next question.

Okay.

Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

Good morning, everybody it's Nate.

It's Nathan Richardson on for Nick.

Thank you for taking my question.

I just wanted to ask what's assumed for the PJM in 'twenty three if you haven't covered that already is.

Is it the baseline or is it still a headwind there.

Okay as we look at our as we look at our Tam.

Forecast basically.

The annual update tariff so theres no forecast I do think that as you look at our power costs and you look at the entire region. It's important to note.

Where you are with hydro condition is 55% of the energetic energy generated across the northwest is hydro based and we're roughly you can see it in the 10-K and our.

Disclosures are roughly a little bit over 80% and that's low but its in particular low in comparison to last year, where you saw mid <unk> at 110% and so we have we have forecast.

As lower hydro levels into our energy prices.

For this coming year.

And I think that's an important.

Sort of calibration and chairman's of IRT, the risk balancing of 2023.

So one way to short handed as we entered the year flat based on the.

<unk>, which is the baseline if you want to call it that of the PGM.

Obviously things change we saw that last year, but essentially are reset at the beginning of every January one.

Great. Thank you very much.

Youre welcome.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of James Kennedy with Guggenheim <unk> Guggenheim partners.

Amit.

Your line is open.

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks.

Thanks.

I apologize if I missed this a little earlier, but the slippage of the 2021 items in the.

RFP process, what what is actually driving that is it the.

The bids that were rebid is it.

The deadline for the RFP itself I guess, just what would drive that scheduled for.

It's just normal commercial negotiation in a time of extraordinary supply chain challenges.

Okay.

We've had a number of us.

Our solar projects recently that have been laid as they have been laid across the country and we want to make certain that as we are negotiating that way all of these projects will be delivered as expected.

And it's a challenging environment out there, but nothing unusual yes. It's a question of a few months James.

A lot of our business.

Yes.

<unk>.

I'm not concerned at all and also batteries are unusual in the sense that they are modular right. So we're always looking at the grid and what kind of storage and capacity is needed around the grid and we're able to work with the vendors to size those projects appropriately based on the latest information we have so.

As you go further in time, you have more information about the grid and you can actually design around that but we're talking about very modest differences timeframe.

Okay perfect.

And then just one kind of nuanced question.

I really like slide 11, but I'm just curious.

One of the footnotes you assumed about 25% ownership of <unk>.

The mid point I guess, how did you kind of arrive at that number.

Yeah. So.

So we stepped back in.

We wanted to provide this sort of illustration to help you understand what the opportunity is.

Wanted to be somewhat conservative, but also take into account what we saw happening in the rest of the market the ppas.

Third party agreements community solar, but they are I mean, you name. It right. So we tried to have a holistic look at what we would need to do to Descartes goals.

Possible and so I think overtime I would say that we won a higher percentage and I'll, let Maria add onto this because of her history here in terms of utility scale generation, we've been much more successful on that but at this 25% is more of a piece of the pie of the <unk>.

Holistic energy mix.

That we have.

We are sometimes surprised ourselves with the number.

Self builds our ownership opportunities we pass through Rfps.

And I think it's because we take very seriously.

The need to be cost competitive and lease cost least risk.

And we work very hard to make sure that our bids are set up.

The customer price.

Impacts first and foremost as well as the overall functionality with our portfolio.

So hopefully we will be as successful as we have been in the past, but it's a highly competitive which is important in terms of driving cost to their lowest levels, which is a challenge through significant energy transition and something we need to always stay constantly vigilant.

Makes sense thanks, guys.

Thank you.

I am showing no further questions in the queue.

I would now like to turn the call back to Maria Pope for closing remarks.

Thank you very much for joining us today, we appreciate your interest in Portland General and we look forward to seeing you all soon and I very much appreciate the robust questions. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen.

This conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.

Q4 2022 Portland General Electric Co Earnings Call

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