Q4 2022 Herbalife Nutrition Ltd Earnings Call
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
[music].
Okay.
Okay.
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call for her will like Nutrition Ltd.
On the call today is Michael Johnson, the company's chairman and C E O.
Miskito, the company's Chief Financial Officer.
John Desimone, the company's Chief strategy Officer.
Mark Scheffel, our company's Chief operating officer, and Eric Monroe, The company's senior director Investor Relations.
I would now like to turn the call over to Eric Monroe to read the company's Safe Harbor language you may begin.
Good afternoon on today's call, we will be making some forward looking statements and while were making those statements in good faith, we do not have any guarantee about the results we will achieve.
Descriptions of our risk factors are included in the documents, we filed with the SEC.
We will also be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP and adjusted numbers refer to measures that exclude items management believes impact the comparability for the period referenced.
Please see the earnings release for additional information on our comparability items.
These GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations can be found in the earnings press release and the slides we will be reviewing on today's call both of which can be found on the investor Relations section of our website.
I'll now turn the call over to chairman and CEO , Michael Johnson, Thanks, Eric and welcome everyone and I find it a little bit ironic that I'm talking to you on Valentine's Day, My first day back with Herbalife after two and a half years was on Halloween. So I'm coming to you on two American holidays, and now I'm going to give you a.
Report and my first 100 days.
I started on October 31, and immediately jumped on a plane to Cairo, Egypt in November and we met with our distributor leaders, our Chairman's club and founders Circle, We did a follow up meeting with them in Los Angeles in the first part of December to take action in the lip sales in to formulate a strategic plan for growth.
Listen we learned we've made decisions we put a plan in place to modernize and relaunched herbalife, we presented it to our up and coming distributor leaders in Lisbon, Portugal, and in Dallas, Texas to inspire to listen to them to energize and represent the foundation of our relaunch of Herbalife, which we call herbalife to point out.
This is was and is to our next level leaders. We have launched new promotions are in person events. In 2023 alone have totaled 170, we've reached 175000 distributors face to face that's a big change from our pandemic times, we've set up a digital tab.
Ask force made up of select distributors in our internal team to speed the time to market for Herbalife, one our digital transformation, we have setup to internal committees or volume, creating to drive growth in our margin committee to manage cost.
With all that said there is no way to get around that we are disappointed.
And our performance for fiscal 2022, and our last quarter, our fourth quarter net sales of $1 2 billion were down 10% from the prior year on a constant currency basis sales were down 4%. Our full year net sales of $5 2 billion were also down 10% on a constant currency basis down 5%.
The strength of the dollar has obviously impacted our EPS as well our full year adjusted EPS of $3.40 was impacted by a 60 currency headwind, we generated significant cash flow in 2022, our FY operating cash flow was over $350 million.
Through our cost management efforts in the fourth quarter, we maintained adjusted EBITDA flat to the fourth quarter in 2021.
Now onto the future.
Here's my promise, our sales will grow and our results will improve I'm fully aligned with our board our investors our distributors and our employees to usher in a new era of growth for Herbalife, Here's our vision on how we're going to deliver our business is built on two major platforms our content.
In our distribution our content is our product we're going to grow our product portfolio to position herbalife as the premier public health and wellness company.
We started in 1980 as a weight loss company, we evolved in the two thousands to nutrition company.
Today, we are launching ourselves.
Into the future to be a public health and wellness company, new products, New services coaching wellness evaluations available through our distributor platform for our customers. We shall see this company grow we have enormous opportunity to grow our company through enhancing our daily nutrition products with expanded lines such as vegan.
And choices and proteins, we are expanding herbalife 24 to include new product enhancing our current ingredient profile.
We've actually brought back the founder the creative Herbalife 24, our product that expanded our distributor base to our consumers and to our distributors. We are exploring opportunities for sleep products and coaching we will continue to build upon our weight management platform. We have other categories were exploring regionally in India, which is a <unk>.
Growth market for us our product line is unique to that market. We are unleashing products regionally in Europe , and Asia, and China, and we will look for synergies and opportunities to globalize some of our regional product offerings. Our plan is to reach more consumers with more offerings through our distributors than ever before.
Our next platform is distribution.
Our distributors that give a voice and a passion if you will to our product our distributor base. Its global 95 markets are entrepreneurial distributors have a unique relationship with their consumers today, we're modernizing our compensation structure, including new promotions to energize and incentivize our distributors to make.
It easier to earn early in their journey through our digital platform will accelerate the transference of data to better understand our consumers and our preferred customers to work alongside our distributors to enhance their sales.
Which brings me to our digital platform Herbalife Juan.
This is our largest investment ever our digital platform herbal iPhone is transformational it will accelerate data actions herbalife, one will be our first ever unified data powered global digital platform that will enable growth by delivering best in class digital experience for distributors and consumers around the globe from simplify.
Sign ups to providing a best in class e-commerce experience with enhanced data analytics to suggested and targeted selling features.
<unk> will modernize differentiate and strengthen our leadership in the marketplace.
Data visibility is improving in herbalife, but we want to do it better we need better data utilization and we know it.
Where else are brand we are refreshing our brand we're relaunching it which allows us to operate in a variety of verticals, we will roll it out in our leadership event in one month from today our vision. It's both short term and long term our plan to return to growth in the near term is made up of a well defined plan.
Growth for the short term, that's recruit and retain customers and distributors pretty simple expand nutrition clubs high opportunity by analyzing metrics and giving more information and data to distributors entering this highly profitable area growth preferred customer programs. We are on we are enhancing data analyst.
Thanks to take action on the data we are collecting in order to drive growth and we need to better maximize the usage of our data for visibility and opportunity distributor contribution or compensation enhancement. There as I mentioned before we are creating economic incentives and promotions to motivate drive and reward distributor activity.
I've said it before I'll say it again, we need to improve visibility improve our data and analytics high Tech high touch in this company Herbalife, one will be the underpinning of our operations going forward. Today, we are saying we have no guidance and are forecasting because we just launched new initiatives need time to analyze and digest before we can accurately.
Forecast into the future on margin enhancement, we have $70 million of ongoing efficiencies identified through our transformation program, we are making difficult and frankly unpopular decisions, 7% reduction in our global workforce price increases in 2023 zero based budgeting every expense to be analyzed.
<unk> are professional fees.
We are still investing for growth as you've seen in herbalife one.
Personally I'm focused on getting herbalife rolling again, it's the only herbalife our know how to grow volume build content enhance our distribution and create better margin opportunities. We have a shared vision with our distributors and management for building customers and building distributors business is stronger. This is our herbalife are today, it's arbor LIFO.
Tomorrow, and it's our promise to you so let's take it over Alex and show them, what we got.
Thank you Michael.
Michael left you with a vision of where we are headed in the plan that will return herbalife the growth I'll begin my section with the key takeaways for today's call.
First fourth quarter net sales of $1 2 billion were down 10, 4% compared to the prior year.
Although currency pressure eased toward the end of the quarter. The U S. Dollar remains significantly elevated over the prior year driving a 620 basis point currency headwind to net sales.
Second despite the net sales decline focused cost management efforts during the fourth quarter contributed to adjusted EBITDA that was approximately flat with the prior year.
Third over the past 90 days through Michaels leadership, we are aligned in a well defined plan that will focus the company's efforts to improve distributor metrics and ultimately return herbalife to growth.
Fourth while we are optimistic about revitalizing the top line, we are actively controlling expenses to manage margins and maximize profitability.
We've expanded and accelerated our previously announced transformation program, which is now expected to deliver annual savings of at least $70 million with approximately half of these savings being realized in 2023, and the remainder being realized in 2024 and thereafter.
Fifth during the fourth quarter, we took steps to secure our balance sheet in December we issued a new convertible note due in 2028, using all proceeds of the transaction to repurchase a portion of convertible notes due in 2024.
In addition to the refinancing the company strategically paydown of revolver and with scheduled amortization amortization payments, we reduced our nominal debt by approximately $60 million.
And six.
We will not be providing guidance for 2023 on today's call. While we anticipate the trends we observed in the third third and fourth quarter to continue into the first quarter. There are also growth initiatives being put into place that will need to observe traction before incorporating into our forecast.
The macro economic conditions continue to create a backdrop of consumer behavior that is challenging to predict.
Reported net sales for the fourth quarter declined 10, 4% compared to the prior year and down four 2% on a constant currency basis.
Net income of approximately $54 million resulted in adjusted EBITDA of approximately $131 million, which was in line with the prior year adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter was 11, 1% an improvement of 110 basis points compared to the fourth quarter 2021.
Reported EPS of <unk> 55 resulted in adjusted earnings per diluted share of <unk> 53.
Adjusted EPS was negatively impacted by year over year currency headwind of approximately <unk> 25.
During the fourth quarter as previously communicated the company strategically reduced approximately $60 million of our outstanding debt. We ended the quarter at 347 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA, which is above our target target leverage ratio of three <unk> times.
The company plans to use free cash.
Free cash flow generation in 2023 to reduce our overall debt as we continue to work towards our long term target leverage.
For the full year net sales declined 10, 3% compared to the prior year.
We experienced a year over year net sales headwind in all four quarters. This year with a full year impact of 490 basis points local currency net sales declined five 4% in 2022.
Reported net income of approximately $321 million resulted in full year adjusted EBITDA of approximately $694 million adjusted EBITDA margin for the year was 13, 3%.
Reported EPS of $3 23 resulted in adjusted earnings per diluted share of $3 40.
Adjusted EPS was negatively impacted by year over year currency headwind of approximately <unk> 60.
The company generated over $350 million of operating cash flow in 2020 to the.
The impact of our working capital accounts improved in 2022 over 2021, and we will continue to focus on working capital initiatives to improve cash flow generation as we move into 2023.
Drilling into fourth quarter net sales, where we benefited from 12 seven percentage points of pricing from prices increases influences throughout the year.
Unfavorable country mix, primarily driven by significant outperformance in India resulted in a net sales headwind of approximately 270 basis points.
Local currency net sales for the fourth quarter was down four 2% compared to the prior year.
The U S dollar weakened towards the end of the quarter against most major currencies, but were still materially elevated compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
For the full year volume declined 10, 1% unfavorable country mix resulted in a net sales headwind of approximately 320 basis points.
The full year average of the price increases taken over the course of the year resulted in a net sales benefit of seven nine percentage points.
The U S dollar strengthened significantly over the course of the year before a modest pull back towards the end. This resulted in an FX headwind to net sales of 490 basis points for the full year.
Moving to EBITDA margins, where adjusted EBITDA of $131 million resulted in adjusted EBITDA margin of 11, 1%, which was in line with the prior year. Despite a 937.
Despite a $137 million reduction in net sales.
EBITDA benefited approximately 400 basis points from our price increases.
Despite the pricing benefit gross profit of 77, 5% was flat with the prior year as we continue to be impacted by elevated input costs in our supply chain.
These cost increases to raw materials manufacturing overhead and freight drove an EBITA margin headwind versus prior year of approximately 170 basis points.
Consistent with the third quarter within SG&A, we experienced an approximate 120 basis headwind related to our promotional spend this headwind was largely due to the return of in person events in most regions as well as the return of more normalized promotional spend.
We continue to see the positive impact of our cost saving initiatives and labor and benefits during the fourth quarter. We benefited by approximately 80 basis points of EBITDA margin expansion due to efficiencies and targeted strategic improvements leading to favorable margin impact even after absorbing the impact of annual wage increases.
<unk>.
As mentioned earlier currency had a significant impact and led to an additional approximately 170 basis points headwind on EBITDA margins.
Full year adjusted EBITDA of $694 million resulted in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13, 3%, which was approximately 170 basis points lower than fiscal year 'twenty one.
Full year gross profit of 77, 4% was approximately 120 basis points unfavorable from the prior year as approximately 210 basis points of price benefit was offset by elevated input costs in our supply chain, which negatively impacted EBITDA by approximately 130 basis points. In addition to FX and other.
Impacts such as country mix.
Within SG&A, we experienced an approximately 110 basis points headwind related to events and promotional spend.
And benefit cost savings initiatives, which were largely executed in the back half of 'twenty two contributed to approximately 30 basis points of EBITDA expansion for the full year.
Currency had a significant impact across the P&L and led to an approximately 70 basis.
70 basis points headwind on overall EBITDA margins.
For the quarter average active sales leaders of approximately 480000.
With 6% under last year, and slightly reduced from second and third quarter levels.
<unk> was supported by the continued outperformance of India.
While the Q4 metric followed our usual seasonality compared to second quarter, and third quarter, new distributor and preferred customers joining the business declined 1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2021.
New distributor and preferred customer growth is a key focus area as we move into 2023, we have implemented new global initiatives. In addition to market specific action plans aimed towards improving this metric with several strategies underway.
Turning to our regional results for the quarter, where the Asia Pacific region was flat compared to the prior year.
The region was led by India, which grew 22% and Vietnam, which was up 9%.
The EMEA region saw a 3% decline in local currency net sales, which was materially amplified by 12 points of currency pressure in the quarter, resulting in reported net sales are down 15%.
Within the Latam region, Mexico returned to growth, increasing 8% compared to the prior year, but was offset with declines in Chile, Colombia and Brazil.
Beginning in 2021, we initiated a transformation program to optimize global processes for future growth. The transformation program involves the realignment of infrastructure and the locations of certain functions to better support distributors and customers in the back half of 2022, we.
To see the benefits of these initiatives.
We have expanded the scope and accelerated the program, which is now expected to deliver annual savings of at least $70 million with approximately half of these savings being realized in 2023.
And the other half being realized in 2024 and thereafter.
We also expect to incur total pre tax expenses of <unk> 60 million to realize these run rate savings we have already incurred total pre tax expenses of approximately $25 million through the end of 'twenty two.
Turning to cash flow.
And while our cash generation ability remains strong free cash flow in 2022 was below historical run rates for 2023, we will continue to execute execute on the initiatives to optimize working capital that began in late 2022.
Despite a higher level of expected capital expenditures in 2023 versus 2022 through margin initiatives and working capital management, we expect to generate a higher level of free cash flow in 'twenty three versus 22.
Turning to capital allocation.
Our long term use of cash prioritization as a company remains unchanged as always our number one priority is to service our debt and as I've previously mentioned during the fourth quarter, we strategically reduced our debt by approximately $60 million as we remain prudent with cash given the difficult macro backdrop.
We plan to use free cash flow generated in 2023 to continue to reduce our nominal debt levels.
This concludes our prepared remarks, operator, please open up the line for questions.
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen to ask a question.
Please press star one laundry your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
So withdraw your question. Please press star one again.
Please standby, while we compile the Q&A roster.
Okay.
Our first question comes from the line of Jason Bender with Citi. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks, Operator, hi, everyone. Good afternoon. Thanks for thanks for taking the question.
I would like to start is on the herbalife to point out, though it sounds really exciting with all the new products and offerings and tools and branding what have you, but I was hoping maybe you could wrap some additional commentary around that.
In terms, specifically of kind of timeline and rollout and how you plan to manage the execution of all of those moving pieces without being too disruptive and then also specifically in terms of any extra investment.
For this initiative on top of what it was the $400 million that you called out related to Herbalife one.
Okay. John This is Michael John Desimone, and I will tag team you on the answer here one is.
It's going to be additive and not disrupted our distributors have wanted and needed a better platform in which to operate their business. We will lay out for them in March at our event here, where we have the worldwide leadership Forum here in Los Angeles, we will rollout for them what opportunities are available when and we will have a timeline.
As we launched Herbalife, one which is the digital transformation in the company product wise, we are consistently and continually launching new products in regional markets as well on a global footprint.
Bringing back the creator of Herbalife 24 was a huge boon to us that created new distributors had created new consumers that created new opportunities for distributor methods of operation inside our company and we're looking to do the same with some of what we call the vertical rollouts by exploring new areas, some which will be success.
Some may be less successful, but we're going to look at a variety of opportunities along that line. So let me turn it over to John to talk about public some of the enhancements around the marketing and the <unk>.
Insatiable plan, yes, I'll take I'll take it on some of the initiatives that were discussed in Michael's opening so.
I think the key takeaways of lot of the actions are aimed at.
Either staged in a way that they are manageable.
Yes.
We're making some changes internally to handle the incremental work that's needed. So I'll see if I can hit them all at once so we talked about growing nutrition clubs, that's really data analysis on our side and providing that data to our distributors providing.
Best practice to our distributors and the work is on their end to opening so we provide the information, but thats. The efforts are much more in that camp. When we look at preferred customer program and the enhancement of the preferred customer program in a way that generates more sales for our distributors. That's data analytics that comes in two phases is an annual phase that we're doing now and then.
The AI phase and Thats going to happen as Herbalife one comes on board. So that's going to be staged with <unk> as that gets implemented.
When we talk about product content.
There is going to be a lot of work on product content and launch new products one of the initiatives we've.
Initiated with the help of our distributors as a SKU rationalization program to free up resources to be able to do that the SKU rat program.
We will have a minimal impact on sales.
Plenty of Skus that I think we can roll off in a planned way without impacting our distributor sales.
And then it goes to the marketing plan, which is the one that we call a marketing plan to the distributor compensation plan.
I think that's maybe a better.
Better choice of words, and it's it's what our distributors get rewarded in one of the things that we've done.
As we've made our bonus plan part of the distributor compensation plan is a bonus and we made that bonus more accessible to more distributors.
And we think that that's something we can do immediately that was in programming that's already been done.
That's the beginning of trying to optimize the compensation plan.
Regionally and maybe even at a country level.
But a lot of that work has been done and thats something that was be able that we can do immediately and we think it's going to drive.
Activity and engagement the distributor level and so is all done in a very planned phased in approach with mostly current resources.
Got it Super helpful color. Thank you for that and then maybe one for you Alex <unk>.
Just in terms of not providing guidance, obviously I get that youre launching all these new initiatives in time to digest them, but when I think back in when you pulled guidance last quarter. One of the reasons you highlighted was essentially kpis changing at the same rates or simultaneously and sale.
The press release, you called out seeing.
<unk> seen some stabilization on a global basis in terms of Kpis business trends. So the question is how do I balance those two ideas and maybe is it something in key geographies, where you're still seeing that rate of change you happy at the same time, and then kind of to ultimately what does it take for you to get to a place where.
There you can issue guidance.
Well I'll start I'll start with the end right. So theres been long periods of times, where we have been able to provide guidance and our business has been predictable enough that we largely we're able to meet those those guidance those guys.
The guidance that we provided.
Over the past couple of years, whether it be the pandemic environment coming out of the pandemic environment or going into the sort of global situation that we are going now from an economic standpoint, it's created.
An environment, where that long history of predictive predictive ability is not present in a moment you couple that with all of the initiatives that we're launching from a growth perspective, and you just create a situation where right now providing guidance isn't something that we're able to do we don't have the traction of the <unk>.
Variable attraction of how those initiatives are going to take place in the marketplace.
We have a lot of confidence that they will be additive and they will help return us to growth, but the timing.
The rate of change all of these types of behaviors. In this backdrop, we don't have a lot of models to be able to to go to it and say. This is we're confident enough to give you investor <unk> analyst guidance that this is our path. We're confident in our strategy, we're confident that we'll get to the endpoint, but the tie.
<unk> of that right now we need some time to see how thats going to progress.
Got it appreciate the color I'll pause there.
Sure.
Thank you.
Please standby for our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Van <unk> with B Riley Your line is open.
Yes, hi, everyone Multipart question for Michael If you can bear with me.
Now that you've had some time to SaaS Michael.
Analyze formulate a plan to reinvigorate the business what do you believe where the primary mistakes that were made under the prior regime and given that you've laid out some high level initiatives here how much of the turnaround plan is around product content I know you mentioned SKU rationalization, but.
How do new products plan to the plan, whereas the emphasis there and then additionally, how much of the turnaround.
Elements are around distribution.
Maybe you can kind of wait that for us.
So on the first part of your question I had a metro say to me a long time ago, Youre never going to get anywhere looking in the rearview mirror for too long look out the windshield see where you're going so.
Everybody in this company has worked incredibly hard our distributors have worked incredibly hard.
Through a very tough time macroeconomic headwinds those are the favorite words of everybody I tend to look forward.
So to answer the second part of your question is our product is vital to us since our content and it is the underpinning of the success in our marketplace with distributors and consumers, what we need to do now and be better with our content is there are a couple of things we have to look at our ingredient profile and be more in.
Tuned with the times, we have a great product to our product today is one of the best meal replacement. There is out there we want to shift people from a fat salt and sugar diet to a healthy diet of proteins and carbohydrates.
Branched chain amino acids, and I could get going with all of the molecular structure of nutrition on you, but I'm going to spare you that discussion right now, but we have to get more in tune with what's going on out there in the sleep horizon and the anxiety horizon, how can we as a company better address the needs of consumers across the platform.
I said in my little opening there that we start with a weight loss company, we shifted to a higher performance nutrition company now, we're going to even take it further and deeper and wider with our verticals and we will use the digital platform to enhance all of that and get tools of selling to our distributors and give an opportunity to our consumers to have a general wellness in there.
I see.
Sure that sounds like a sales pitch, but ultimately I'm, a salesman and I'm here to see this company grow through its content I'm here to see it grow through its distributor opportunity and its consumer uptake of our products into the future. So we will expand those content lines, we will expand those product lines, we will figure out better opportunities for distributor <unk>.
Princes and consumer preferences and find the way that our distributors' best sell to our customers and enhance that with content that delivers on that promise.
Okay.
Okay, and then just sort of as a follow up to that the new product content fair to assume that that will be all internally developed.
That's not fair.
Statement right now.
So I think we need to widen our approach a little bit and here our distribution was global.
I'm sure there's people out there that would love to have their product on a global platform. So we're not going to shy away from talking to other people Herbalife 24 was actually a <unk>.
<unk> acquisition on our part it was a small company called prolong headed up by the gentleman, who is coming back to join US now I actually met him at a bike event and saw him selling the product for sampling the product out of the back of his cards, an amazing story with OCA Young Mark Hughes, there and when we started to get <unk>.
To them, we tested this product through our science and our laboratories here too our MRI machine and we realized it was a very strong product. We purchased the company brought him in that was an acquisition.
And then grew that to be I don't know, what an $800 million product line Alex.
$20 locally sold product, we're going to open the door to attract more people like that into our company and say, we can give you a global platform on your product and work with our distributors to best figure out the compensation model to enhance their business and then use our digital platform to reach out to more consumers for suggestive selling.
This is <unk> for the future. This is the one we're excited about.
Okay and then Michael since you came on have you evolve the Herbalife one initiative.
I don't think ive above there that may have sped it up a little bit.
Much to the <unk> <unk>.
Folks the one thing we did do is we took a we had a very large distributor groups involved almost 40 people involved in <unk>. The company, we struck that down to six <unk> six we shrunk that down to six distributors, who have really super mindsets in the area of data social media how to do best.
Use the opportunity of the digital platform to sign up distributors in and build out opportunity.
Throughout their framework of their business and so we're speeding it up.
And we're going to be launching and testing it out.
Market's very soon we'll have that data for you on the next earnings call.
It will be we're pretty excited about it.
Alright, Thanks for taking my questions and best of luck. Thank.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Please standby for our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Carlo <unk> with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Good afternoon.
It was nice to see the trends stabilize here in the fourth quarter and getting some traction.
It seems from what the turmoil in the first half of the year. When you say that those have continued into the first quarter.
Should we be looking at the first quarter similar to.
The fourth quarter results or how should we think about the cadence of that going forward.
Yes. So thanks, Peter Thanks for the question I think we're just making a general comment that we have a lot of initiatives in our plan, where we're suggesting returning to growth.
We just don't want there to be confusion that hey, we're returning to growth in the first quarter, we still see some of the trends that we're seeing in the third and fourth fourth quarter, which obviously is topline decline generally speaking with distributor metrics that we still want to improve off of where they are so what we're what we're suggesting is that the first quarter.
Probably has.
Seeds planted for that return to growth, but probably financial results that are more consistent with the second half.
Okay.
And then when we look at the.
Cash flow generation.
For the year.
There will be we kind of applying that is that still kind of revolver pay down or should we be addressing those 24 converts that are remaining how do you feel about the 20 fives that are outstanding.
What's the big picture there for you guys.
Yes, so cash flow generation as I mentioned, we'll be going towards either nominally paying down our debt or will be parking it for the 2024.
That piece of the 2024 converts that are due in the beginning of next year, it will be going to things to improve our overall.
Gross leverage ratio, so whether that be whether that would be top line reduction and nominal debt.
Or or parking for future optimization of our of our debt capital structure, that's what cash flow generation in 2023 will be going to.
Okay, and just lastly from a long term picture here when you implemented <unk>, one and <unk>, two and you've put in the new compensation structures and the new product.
And executed on the on the cost saves here do.
Do you think that long term growth gross margin should be there.
Oracle levels or is there a new kind of level that we should be thinking about from a long term perspective for you guys.
Yes, I mean fundamentally the.
Our current gross profit level, where we ended 2022.
It's probably a three three points away from our run rate that's away from where we want to get this company back to now with even though that input costs. The rise of that whether that be through ingredients freight or factory floor wages.
While there has been some modest improvement versus where we were in 2021 and I really a meaningful improvement in the rate of change or the rate of increase is still is at levels that is sort of commensurate to where CPI is today. So as we move into 2023, even with pricing.
Action.
That the near term is largely we're going to be treading water on a gross profit line.
There still needs to be things that happen structurally in the supply chain and things that are happening structurally for us to be able to take price and and and and above where our input costs are before we start making progress on the gross profit line.
So long long answer to simply say.
We're doing what we can to improve the gross profit line, but there are structural limitations and consumer demand limitations right now that are not necessarily allowing us to recover all of that in the near term, but our long term plan is to recover that gross profit margin loss.
Thank you very much guys I appreciate it.
Thank you.
Please standby for our next question.
Okay.
Our next question comes from the line of Anna Missoula with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Hi, good afternoon, and thanks very much for the question.
I understand that youre, not providing guidance for 2023 currently.
Was wondering if you can comment on just how the business is performing so far this year in the various geographic markets. We also looked like there was some continued weakness in China and in the fourth quarter. If you can touch on the volume and sales trends that youre seeing there. So far this year. Thank you.
Thanks, Dan and thanks for the question. So we're not providing guidance for this year, we normally don't read out.
<unk> that are sort of post the reporting period right now reporting for the fourth quarter in 2022, So we'll leave our comments to what we're reporting today as for the performance in China in the fourth quarter clearly that was still impacted by zero Covid, China has come out of that zero Covid policy.
Near the end of 2022 and as we move into 2023, we're looking to see some of the business transformation initiatives that we began probably at the end of 2021, which was really sort of hamstrung by zero Covid policy of 2022, we're looking to see some of those transformation initiatives.
<unk> take place and take hold.
In 2023, so more to come on that as 2023 opens up and we see sort of how the market receptivity to that.
Those <unk>.
Strategic initiatives.
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Thank you.
Please standby for our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Good afternoon.
So my first question when you were discussing the new bonus program. It sounds you mentioned, it's more accessible to more distributors.
So I guess I would assume that that implies that if we don't see sales growth based upon this if it doesn't encourage greater numbers of distributors to perform better EBITDA margins will come under pressure with the new compensation program.
Sir.
No no this is John .
It is an allocation of the dollars that we already spend on the bonus program. It is how our distributors' access those dollars. So it doesn't impact margins as sales go up or down.
Okay, Okay good to hear.
And then I think your price increase in the third quarter was 13% on a year over year basis are we at a point now where future or further price increases are not needed or do you expect additional ones to be implemented in 2013.
So.
This sort of dovetails on my commentary that I was giving a moment again on where our gross profit margin is we still haven't been able to recover.
The full input crossed.
That we have been receiving in our cost of manufacturer. So we're trying to be very mindful of how to recover that loss profit margin.
But we're also trying to be mindful of the impact that those price increases are having in the market with respect to consumers and distributors. So it's really.
We do anticipate continuing to execute on price increases into 2023, but we're trying to do that in a very mindful way.
As we move through the year.
Okay that makes that makes sense I understand and then lastly.
With regard to the capital allocation you spoke to the fact that this year youre going to allocate all cash towards debt.
That reduction in one form or another.
Is there some sort of target that you're hoping to achieve in terms of.
Your leverage target had been three times on a total gross basis I guess I'm wondering at what point will you look to change your capital allocation policy to a more balanced one.
Whether it has to do with the outlook for the 24% 25, whether it has to do with leverage how are you guys thinking about that.
Right. So so the target leverage of three times is obviously our target. So when will we change out of sort of this current mode, which is really excess cash to reduce our nominal debt level. A couple of things will likely have to happen and it's not necessarily a crystal ball and it certainly is in guidance for 2023, but what are the.
<unk> that would have to be in place. While first we would have to be at or near our target leverage and secondly, I think we would have to be comfortable at that point that we have clear line of sight that we are returning to growth that our topline and our EBITDA ultimately our EBITDA is on an upward trajectory, where we have a denominator growth issue.
And our leverage ratio. So I think those conditions need to be present before we would think of changing sort of our current.
Current strategy and our capital allocation plan.
Got it very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Please standby for our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Hale Holden with Barclays. Your line is open.
Thanks, I had two questions. The first one on China, China is to come.
Much smaller part of the business over the last couple of years, there's been a lot of reasons for that.
But I was wondering as you talked about stabilizing and potentially growing from here if you can grow it.
Without margin dilution or if you have to add cost or people back to get back to a growth profile.
I'm not sure a linear margin opportunity and interest.
Yes, I mean, you raised a good point.
China now is obviously a much less significant part of our overall net sales profile from a profitability standpoint, as we think of the transformation program China is.
One of them.
The components of that transformation program and so.
We think that we can.
Execute on margin initiatives in that market, specifically, while still maintaining the opportunity that we see in China, China is one of the largest consumer markets in the world. We are a global company and we still see tremendous opportunity in that market. So while we're going to be prudent from a margin perspective and get that market right size for the top line.
It now represents I don't think we're giving up on the opportunity in terms of what we think we can do on the top line.
My second one for I guess for Michael.
The number of.
In person meetings, you guys have held and people you've touched since the beginning of the year was pretty startling and.
Hi, I was wondering if you could give us some examples of.
How people leave those meetings and then get fired up to solid because hopefully that's the goal but.
Any sort of tangible on the <unk>.
On the ground feel you can get.
Can you get back from the distributors post that would be helpful.
The Best example, I can give you.
<unk>.
Is that when we met with our leadership in Cairo, and then brought them back here in Los Angeles.
<unk> been a group of distributors leaders with pretty sizable businesses, who what I call head kind of retired.
If they are successful.
<unk> homes in the mountains, along the oceans.
Stepping away from the business and basics.
Basically they have got a promise from them to come back all in and to rebuild their organizations. The meetings that are taking place inside of their businesses are just amazing.
And it is.
Really something to take the whole of it's hard to explain and metrics.
Alex and probably have a hard time, explaining it until we get the numbers back up to where we want them to get the top line up but they are sending me.
Videos.
Instantly appears a meeting in Tennessee, Here's one in Texas here as one in France, Heres, one taking place in Asia, and we've got a rallying cry for the company called LDH. So, let's go herbalife and they have all embraced it and it's under sweatshirts, it's in their programs within their scenery behind their zoom calls and sometimes it takes a.
Little spark to get a fire going and if I'm, providing that sparked fantastic, but I really think it through distributors, who are providing that sparked a re energized they're excited about where they are and we've got a promotion it's called I'm all in with Michael I don't want to use my ego here, but.
It's got a pretty good uptake on it we're going to have all of those distributors here in March to reward them for their efforts with our with our bonus program, but I think.
Don't know if you are here for that but youll see an excited and energetic distributor leadership that is going to translate into a more revitalized field sales force and that's what we need to do I mean, I'm a sales guy and.
So building the sales in this company and getting us up and building distributor opportunity. That's the name of the game right now all the other things for content that <unk>.
Digitalization, we feel can build sales without dose not without content, obviously, but they will enhance and they will grow our business and grow our consumer opportunity. Our data management all of these things and kind of give you my closing right now, but you asked me to it's hard to put a finger on you can see the smiles on the faces you can read the text.
That are coming in you can feel the energy in the field now it's got to translate to top line.
Thank you I appreciate it sounds great.
Thank you.
Im showing no further questions in the queue I would now like to turn the call back to chairman and CEO , Michael Johnson for closing remarks.
Thank you very much and thanks, everyone for being on the call I know, we have some new voices on the call today and we hope you take the time to understand our company and depth.
Visitors come spend time with us understand the metrics of our distributors the emotion of our marketplace the opportunity of our digitalization as we go forward as I said in my last answer and thank you for that question our distributors are energized.
Embarking on a new and exciting herbalife, it's time at sea.
We're out of this pandemic malaise and we're onto a brighter bigger future our customer base is expanding our opportunity for those customers is only going to grow bigger our distributor distribution methodologies methodologies will gets more exciting than any time in the company's history.
And kind of finally.
It came back because I'm passionate about herbalife I didn't come back.
For the salary because I think you are pretty aware that my compensation is tied to the success of herbalife. The success of our employees our customers our distributors our investors our shareholders and our board are fully aligned with all of you and I can't wait for us to get stronger bigger better and report.
Back to you on those that may not be in the next quarter, but we're going to get there youll see alright. Thank you very much for being with US today deeply appreciated let's go herbalife.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation you may now disconnect.
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
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