Q4 2022 Golar LNG Ltd Earnings Call
The conference will begin shortly.
Lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
[music].
Welcome to the Golar LNG limited Q4, 2022 results presentation. After the slide presentation by C. I call for a drink stop by and see Us Eduardo Madden Yeah. There will be a question and answer session information on how to ask.
Good question will be provided then.
At this time, all participants are in listen only mode.
Now pass you over to Carl Fredric Stahl Day call. Please go ahead.
Thank you operator, and welcome to Golar Lng's Q4 earnings results presentation.
My name is Karl Fredrik Sabo CEO of Golar LNG.
Company today by our CFO , Mr. Eduardo Miron Y'all, 2% this quarter's results.
Before we get into the presentation. Please note the forward looking statements on slide two.
Turning to slide three this morning, we sold our remaining shareholding in coal company limited for net proceeds of about $56 million.
Since our last earnings call. We've also exited our shareholding in Newport presented it and bought back their stake in RF R&D.
Our only current shareholding is avenir LNG with a book value of around $42 million.
Our core business is owning our own these hidden operating for Perenco in Cameroon.
Indeed generates significant operating cash flows due to commodities and tariffs.
The unit is coming up for re contracting in July 2026, and we're very optimistic to increased utilization and improved commercial terms for the unit upon re contracting.
Demand is expected this targets 20 year contract for BP on this <unk> seen outside Mauritania and Senegal later this year.
She will then start to engage cash flow over more than $1 2 billion invested in the project today.
We are also actively pursuing ordering of our markets U S. LNG with an annual liquefaction capacity of three and a half million tons per annum and will get back to that later in the presentation.
Turning to slide four and the Q4 highlights.
Golar reports a 2022 net income of 788 million in the record book value of $2 9 billion equivalent to about $27 per share.
Our cash position stands at approximately $1 billion or nine $3 a share.
In total we have monetized $572 million in cash during Q4, <unk> and Q1 year to date.
By exiting new fortress energy and coal company.
We also used our remaining $4 1 million shares in MLP as part settlement to acquire NFS taken hilli.
During Q4, we repurchased 141 million or 47% of the outstanding amount of our unsecured bonds.
We also utilized our remaining buyback basket to repurchase and cancel 2 million shares.
And we currently have around 172 million shares outstanding.
The board and management are now exploring alternatives to commence a dividend and or a new share buyback program.
We had an accident quarter for helix the unit generated $86 million in EBITDA.
We unwound, our 2023 and 2024 Tcf hedges securing approximately $140 million in ETF linked earnings and increased our exposure to ETF prices.
We also agreed to acquire entities. They can hit net effective from January one this year and we expect that transaction to close during the first quarter of this year.
Demand is now 92% complete and on schedule for sail away during first half.
As mentioned, we significantly progressed, our LNG growth ambitions by securing a donor vessel for mark to epilepsy conversion.
As well as progress yard and financing discussions for that unit.
We continue to favor the economics of integration of the LNG project and are actively working with upstream partners to develop attractive integrated projects.
I'll now hand, the call over to borrow 2% our Q4 results.
Thanks, Carol good morning, everyone.
Very pleased to provide an update on our group results for the fourth quarter of 2022.
Turning over to slide number six.
I wanted to show some of the financial highlights of this quarter.
<unk> was a record year for Golar, our net income in Q4 was $71 million.
Leading to a record net income of $788 million for the full 2022 calendar year.
This was our highest net income to date and represented an increase of 90% when compared to 2021.
We now have a record total book equity of $2 9 billion.
We had a debt free balance sheet and strong cash reserves of more than $1 billion.
To support further LNG growth.
This quarter, we recorded an adjusted EBITDA of $87 million.
An increase of 2% when compared to the previous quarter.
On a year on year basis, our total adjusted EBITDA in 2020 Chu has grown to $363 million.
An increase of 16% compared to 2021.
It's important to highlight that even after the disposal of our shipping business. We have continued to grow our cash generation due to a strong performance from our LNG business, where we almost doubled our EBITDA to $306 million to $7 million compared to $191 million in 2021.
To provide some further details regarding these in the next few slides.
Total <unk> tariffs in Q4 were $129 million.
Up 18% compared to the previous quarter.
<unk> is comprised of total revenues from liquefaction services and realized gains on oil and gas derivative instruments.
Due to a combination of upstream technical issues in Q4, and Healy maintenance 2022, LNG production was three 5% below the annual contracted volume in a non cash accrual of $36 million liability was recognized.
Because of that our stated operating revenues from S. LNG were lower in Q4, when compared to the previous quarter.
The issues that resulted in the reduced production where it was.
Over the last year and Healy has been producing to schedule since then.
We expect that this production shortfall will be compensated through over production in 2023, where we expect to recognize an additional EBITDA of $36 million.
Offsetting the <unk> 22 under utilization liability with no expected net cash impact to Golar.
As pointed out by Carl we have bought back $141 million of unsecured bonds.
Thus far in Q4, which brought our share of contractual debt at the end of the quarter to $844 million.
Our total cash position at the end of the year stood at just shy of $1 billion at $991 million.
So moving on to slide seven.
We continue to strengthen our balance sheet to allow the company to pursue new LNG growth projects. Our cash position currently stands at more than $1 billion, even when considering the acquisition of NFC is interesting helium, which will require a $100 million cash payments as part of the total consideration and is expected to close in Q.
Juan.
The acquisition of Hilli is expected to increase our run rate adjusted EBITDA by $70 million annually and we will also add a further $323 million in debt. Despite that this incremental debt, we expect to remain debt free due to cash receivables of $140 million, which were locked team within <unk>.
Many of the CTF hedges earlier this year.
As you can see on the right hand side of this slide we have significantly deleveraged, our balance sheet from approximately $2 billion of net debt just two years ago at the end of 2020 to a debt free position we have today.
Moreover, we almost doubled our EBITDA to $363 million.
Which we saw in 2022, we expect this to continue to increase post acquisition of the remaining interest in Healy and once <unk> commences operation.
Moving on to slide eight.
I would like to provide some further insight into our earnings from Hilli. So.
The Healy tariff is comprised of three main components.
Fixed tolling tariffs are Brent linked fee and a TGF linked fee that started the first of January of last year.
We have managed to hedge our CTF linked fees at very attractive levels and as a result of that we saw a very strong increase in heelys EBITDA generating $86 million net to us in the last quarter, which is almost three times greater than what we saw in the same quarter of 2021.
Moving on to slide number nine I wanted to provide some further details regarding the deal we did with in a fee to increase our exposure on hilli.
On February six we agreed to acquire <unk> interestingly LNG Healy by paying $100 million in cash plus our remaining $4 1 million inefficiencies.
And also we assumed $323 billion of contractual debt.
The deal is expected to close in Q1 and after that we will control 94, 6% of common units that received tolling fees from trains one and two plus 5% of the TTS fish.
We will also own 89, 1% of series, a and B units, which benefit from further upside with hi, Brent and TTS prices.
The deal brings immediate cash flow to golar contributing an additional $70 million of EBITDA per year until the end of the current liquefaction agreement in July 26, we believe on significant earnings upside potential with higher utilization and improved commercial terms upon re contracting at the end of the current.
<unk> fair.
Other upsides could be achieved in the next months with a potential refinancing of the existing debt.
Moving on to slide 10, let's take a closer look on the expected earnings from Hilli.
On the back of our increased shareholding of 94, 6% of Healy common units the <unk>.
<unk> tolling fees are expected to double in 2023 to around $138 million.
Following the unwinding of our CTF swaps will remain open for the period between March to December of this year and we remain 100% open between 'twenty 'twenty four and through the end of the contract in 2006.
We also remain exposed to Brent prices and for every dollar increase in oil prices that would result in an incremental EBITDA of $2 $7 million net to us.
Based on forward Cts and Brent curves. This will bring our expected EBITDA from healing in 'twenty, two 'twenty three alone of up to $335 million.
And around $283 million and 24.
Our share of debt service is expected at around $119 million this year.
<unk> free cash flow to equity of close to $216 million just from Chile.
I will now hand over the call to call, who can talk a bit more about some business updates.
Thank you Eduardo.
Turning to slide 12, and <unk> construction of that.
You may now, 92% complete and on track for sail away during first half of 2003.
All heavy lift our onboard and commissioning are underway.
We currently have an average daily workforce of 4300 workers with $74 seven activities and more than 30 million man hours worked today.
We expect the unit to say the way towards the end of Q2 and they arrived onsite revenue horsepower pump during Q3.
Turning to slide 13.
We have now secured a vessel for mark through commercial.
The vessel is a Japanese built 2004 vintage most defined carrier with the storage capacity of 148000 cubes.
We have agreed to pay $5 million and a reservation fee that will be deducted from the total acquisition price of $77 5 million.
Since the acquisition option if the carriage.
We continue to order long lead equipment and are currently committed $320 million of long lead items and have more than 200 engineers between the shipyard topside provider and Golar actively working on the project.
We've made significant progress during the quarter with the conversion shipyard.
Firmed delivery within 2025 based on the current schedule.
We believe that securing an attractive delivery for this unit increases our ability to drive value with prospective <unk> clients.
We've also been through China and received strong interest from lending banks for our construction and long term financing for Mark two units.
We're actively working on several chartering opportune Pittsburgh project, including an attractive integrated opportunities together with an upstream partner.
Turning to slide 14.
Following the acquisition of NFC is taken Humira Golar now controls a postal liquefaction capacity of about $4 1 million tonnes per annum.
With no net debt our market cap and enterprise value is currently.
I am still the same number.
Good morning.
Overall liquefaction capacity and price that golar trades at $590 per ton of liquefaction capacity.
The latest public transactions of liquefaction capacity, including <unk> acquisition of <unk>, Congo, and Kinder Morgan.
Part of it Alba facility.
Suggest market pricing for liquefaction in excess of $1 billion per ton.
If you project that billion dollars per common of liquefaction capacity to golar that would equate to around $38 per share.
That is also the best performing <unk> technology in the world with the lowest.
<unk> footprint.
It's currently available in the market space.
Turning to slide 15.
Slide 15 is well known throughout our latest earnings report the test of the business model for epilepsy.
Subject to the area of operation, we can feed gas into <unk>.
Between one and $3 per <unk>.
And to that Opex in fuel cost of around 6% per MB Btu, and we can deliver F&B, yes.
And $4.
Or we can ship to end users in Europe or Asia for another.
<unk> per <unk>.
Hence ethylene <unk> technology enables monetization of stranded or associated gas.
Landed into Europe , or Asia at between three to $5 brand them with you.
This compares to a forward market between 10 and $15 for them and with you between now and 2030.
Hence the total margin front ethylene <unk> project is between five and $10 per Btu.
And the key discrepancy when comparing <unk> project is how that margin is divided between the resource owner <unk>.
Stream company and the <unk> provider.
A typical tolling fee project charges of tariff anywhere between two and three and half dollars primary midyear.
Giving the chalk were of the ethylene the unit the vast majority of the upside in the project.
And in most cases, the <unk> technology.
Makes the project monetize symbols.
This is why we mainly focus on integrated projects, where we together with an upstream partner enabled the monetization of stranded or associated gas reserves and take out the full spread between the cash breakeven of the liquefaction project and prevailing market prices.
Based on current gas prices in cigarettes and projects have a payback in less than two years in using both the <unk> and upstream capex.
Turning to summary on slide 17.
This further builds on the slide that Eduardo showed on his name, but adding into effect the start of operation of <unk> with full run rate from 2024.
Hence, we expect to see continued earnings and free cash flow to equity growth on the back of increased ownership in <unk>.
Increased commodity linked earnings.
And the startup of demand for <unk> 'twenty, our contract with BP.
We see further upside and increased capacity utilization of Hilli upon contract renewal in July 26, and.
Im through incremental Mark to <unk> that we can be funded by the existing balance sheet flexibility.
We also see potential to improve free cash flow effect with it by optimizing the debt facilities on our existing assets.
The board of management are therefore, exploring alternatives to start to return value to shareholders through dividends or stock repurchases.
To summarize today's call, we will turn to slide 18.
Golar reports 2020 annual net income of $788 million and a record book value of $2 9 billion.
We have a cash balance of around $1 billion low leverage and operating cash flow growth that allow for both ethylene expansion.
And the engagement of shareholder returns.
We see strong client interaction with focus on integrated contract opportunities for the reasons that we have explained and the full project payback in less than two years and current gas price environments.
We believe Golar is very attractively priced both on <unk>.
Cash flow multiples.
And dollar per ton of liquefaction capacity, especially in light of recent transactions.
This concludes our Q4 earnings presentation. Thank you for listening and I will now hand over to the operator for any questions.
Thank you to ask a question you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced.
To withdraw your question. Please press star one and one again, there will be a limit of two questions per person on today's call. Please standby, while we compile the Q&A queue.
Our first question comes from the line of Ben Nolan from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you and.
Good morning, Carl and Eduardo or afternoon, I guess.
And let's see how am I going to do my two questions, we'll start with the.
The potential for a return of capital to shareholders.
Either through dividends or.
Our share repurchases as I recall, there was some some covenant issues that prevented you guys from being able to do that.
As part of your credit facilities could you maybe talk through what those are if they have been resolved. If there is anything in the way of.
Potentially.
That <unk>.
Directionally capital allocation.
So the only restriction. We currently have is under the unsecured bonds.
Where.
We are currently not allowed us to start the dividend until.
March April 2024 at which point, we can start.
So okay.
The question is then if its anywhere we could make that earlier.
Right.
And I suppose the answer is you are working on it is that that's.
The read through there.
Okay Alright.
I suppose we will stay tuned.
For my next question I'm curious.
There was some updates about the potential expansion of the tour to field, where the give me is growing.
It looks as though that project is going.
To a different design, just curious where you guys stand on that.
And if it is not sort of.
Replicating.
Your your.
Your design your F LNG design.
What.
How you approach that particular opportunity.
So first and foremost we involved we're obviously involved in the project through phase one and the startup of EMEA.
Obviously, no VPN cosmos without yesterday.
With a pre feed study for a potential revenue based solution.
We note that this is a pre feed study that would take some time to develop.
It would be a <unk>.
Less proven technology for the area. We also note that they were considering to use electrical drive liquefaction technology.
Which would be a mobile application in a region without the bump.
Renewable energy.
Sourcing so you can source the electricity from land.
In land is still fueled by gas or oil. So we don't see the benefit of doing that shore based.
At the end of the day, it's up to the charters to decide what direction they want to take that.
As we've tried to highlight a few times during this call withdraw their focus our efforts on integrated projects as opposed to expanding further fixed totaling based contracts for majors.
Especially in this inflationary environment with it.
That's interesting thanks Ben.
Very big Capex in the next three years on construction only to be repaid on a fixed tariff or <unk>.
Okay, all right well I have more but I'll respect the two limit and if there's time at the end I'll jump back in I appreciate it. Thank you.
<unk>.
Okay.
Thank you, we'll now move on to our next question.
Please standby.
Our next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, Brian This is Chris Robertson on for Matt Thanks for taking our questions.
Hi, Chris.
Just to kind of piggyback off of Ben's questions regarding the dividend versus share repurchase I mean, you kind of laid out a scenario for a much higher share price earlier in the presentation.
Do you think is the current thinking maybe around share repurchases, given where the shares trade at today.
And with regards to dividend I know, it's pretty early to maybe think about this given that you are having some ongoing discussions there.
Can you talk about.
Apologies.
Is that going.
Direction of.
Steady state dividend policy or how should we think about that.
You broke up a bit but I think I captured most of what you referred to a repurchase and the dividend would fall under the same restriction.
And the current unsecured bonds so.
In the event that were to engage we would currently be able to do it until March April .
24.
When it comes to the balance between dividends and repurchase this is Daryl.
Exploration between Martin management, no firm decisions have been made either way, but we're working at alternatives to identify.
As you highlight.
We believe that both compared to book value of equity cash flow multiples and.
Dollar per ton comparisons to recent transactions we see.
Significant value.
In the stock today.
Got it and then can you talk about the potential for future projects as it relates to kind of holding some cash back on the balance sheet going forward.
Not just the mark.
You've kind of laid out here by flat further projects.
I think as <unk>.
The free cash flow through equity just from operations from Hilli and <unk>.
Would be sufficient to pay.
I'll just start returning very healthy amounts of cash flow to shareholders than you can do all of that even without touching $1 billion of cash and $1 billion of cash.
More than sufficient to fund.
Mark two growth projects so.
We have plenty of capacity to both grow and return cash flow to equity and they're not.
<unk> excuse me.
Yes got it yes, it's certainly a lot of liquidity here alright. Thank you for taking the questions. Thanks, Chris.
Thank you, we'll now move onto our next question.
Please standby.
Our next question comes from the line of Chris Chung from whether research. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, Good afternoon, Carl how are you.
Yes.
Hi, Chris.
Okay. Thank you.
Just looking at your presentation it looks like the cost for March increased level.
7% right I think you guys said 300 million last quarter.
I wanted to ask is that higher price.
From like the higher cost environment or does it.
Adding more equipment.
Just lumping, taking part of this is it does that change your guidance on what the dollar per ton cost for nickel LNG.
Alright.
Referring to slide 50, and the balance.
What we used for illustrative purposes, which slide 15 is meant to be is that we use a dollar per ton that you derive out on slide 14. So we just setup you by Golar today of 592 used <unk> hundred nine just the same basis walk without the quake.
And in product care fraction earnings are cost versus EBITDA.
Yes.
We do believe that we can create the <unk>.
To.
Somewhat cheaper than that failure.
Okay, Yes, because I think in the prior earnings you guys guided to around like 500 executive time.
Linear content up guidance.
Okay, you maintain that now.
Okay, great Thanks, and my second.
Question I think you've touched on this before as well how much liquidity could you unlock if you refinance to gilead.
In auto you want to tackle that one yes sure. So I think we discussed that on the previous call we.
<unk> assessed a different number of alternatives to potentially extract.
Further value from Hebei and gaming.
Depending on which one we would pursue we could see the potential to unlock just on give me alone.
The values of in excess of one two to one 3 billion.
That would require a further refinancing of the existing facility and we could be doing that either in the capital markets or pursuing a new commercial bank facility.
We still believe that we would be better off.
Eliminating completely the construction risk.
So we don't expect to take any sort of a refinancing.
Activities before the commencement of operations of gaming I think with the current cash position that we have and as discussed in the appointed outside Karl as well.
Further enhanced by the cash flow generation from helix, we have more than enough to sustain both.
Further growth for <unk>, but also to commence.
Payments in the near future.
I think we will try to be optimistic when it comes to refinancing.
Okay, Great. That's it for me Thank you guys.
Thank you.
Thank you as a reminder to ask a question you will need to press star one and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw. Your question. Please press star one and one again.
Our next question comes from the line of Liam Burke from B Riley Financial. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, Carl how are you.
Harlan.
Carl are you seeing any competing LNG players in the market.
Looking for potential projects that you would think would be more in line with golar.
I think the biggest.
That's the tourists such as.
Major stock control fields building the assets for our own balance sheet.
Unlike what VPN Cosmos is planning on.
The expansion of torture.
Okay, but you don't see any players like <unk>.
Stepping in and competing.
For your business.
As we've said on numerous occasions when it comes through and if we think that the <unk> technology that they are pursuing is complementary to that.
Golar they are mainly targeting smaller resources in shallower waters.
And seem to focus mainly on U.
U S Gulf of Mexico.
And we think Thats complementary.
Those projects, we are pursuing and we.
We like their technology.
I think they have again complementary.
Technology, two hours and don't see them as a direct competitor for any of the projects. We are currently developing.
Okay, great. Thanks Carl.
Thank you.
Thank you we will now move on to our next question.
Okay.
Our next question comes from the line of Ben Nolan from Stifel. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Yes.
Vivek.
I wanted to just cover a little bit more on the mark to in the presentation. You said that you are confirmed.
You have a shipyard slot confirm for 2025 delivery I'm curious.
When you would need to.
Have the vessel in the yard in the first place or when you would actually start spending other than for the acquisition of the ship and long lead time items, but actual construction.
Of that and could you remind us what you're thinking in terms of what that total capex cost for Mark two would be.
Sure.
<unk>.
Okay, Mark II is slightly different.
Concept than that of Mark once if you go for example on slide 13.
You can see that the liquefaction plant itself is planned to be built from scratch on the new shift mid section.
Then you bring the ship then you basically chop the shift in the middle of new wells on.
The shift to either side of the liquefaction cost.
Hence two.
Keep that schedule, we will start to construct the mid section where the vast majority of the long limbs is intended for.
And then we would need the shift to be in the shipyard to start preparation work on the ship itself. This time next year.
So for us it's more important to get going on the mid section to get shipped in Finnish shipyard.
During this year.
So thats how this unit has built which means that it is less sticky building into an existing.
Unit Youre basically liquefaction plant in the Middle and then.
The storage.
In terms of Capex, it's slightly dependent on mooring system that we will end up using that we believe around somewhere between one eight and.
<unk> should be feasible.
Okay perfect.
That is good color.
And I suppose that in the interim period. After you take delivery of the ship before it goes in the shipyard you would just traded in the spot market or something like that.
Fair assumption I think the way we've tried to structure the whole Marc two project is that we commit them secure.
But we tried to limit the cash drag.
Until we actually need.
So when it comes to the ship itself Thats why were also a restructured it as an option, where we paid $5 million to reserve the shift with them.
Hey.
Somewhat more money, but not the full amount upon declaration of the option and then the final installment is paid upon delivery.
It's likely to be around this time next year, a few of them. Okay, alright, very clear I appreciate it. Thank you.
Thank you Bob.
Yeah.
Thank you there are no further questions at this time, so I'll hand, the call back to call for closing remarks.
Thank you all for listening into our quarterly presentation. We're very excited about the developments of the project during 2022.
Both hope and plan to keep the same pace of progress during 2023.
And thank you for your continued interest and support in the company.
We wish you all a good day bye bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating you may now disconnect speakers. Please standby.
Okay.
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A, you can dial star one one.
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Tom.
Yes.
Sure.
Yes.
Okay.
Yes.
[music].
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
[music].