Q4 2022 PNM Resources Inc Earnings Call
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Good morning, and welcome to the T N M resources fourth quarter 2022 conference call.
All participants will be in a listen only mode.
Should you need any assistance. Please send my conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero.
After today's presentation there'll be an opportunity to ask questions.
To ask a question you May press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
To withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
Please note that this event is being recorded.
I would now like to turn the conference or at least your Goodman Executive director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you Joe and thank you everyone for joining us this morning for the PNM resources fourth quarter 2022 earnings call.
Please note that the presentation for this conference call and other supporting documents are available on our website at PNM resources dotcom joining.
Joining me today are PNM resources, Chairman and CEO , Pat Vincent <unk>.
President and Chief operating Officer, John Terry.
And senior Vice President Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer, Lisa Eaton.
Before I turn the call over to Pat I need to remind you that some of the information provided this morning should be considered forward looking statements pursuant to the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
We caution you that all of the forward looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates.
PNM resources assumes no obligation to update this information.
For a detailed discussion of factors affecting PNM resources results. Please refer to our current and future annual reports on Form 10-K quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, as well as reports on form 8-K filed with the U T C.
With that I will turn the call over to Todd. Thank.
Thank you Lisa good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today on this beautiful Sunny New Mexico Friday morning.
Today is the day, we celebrate some of our favorite people.
It is world bar tender day, and I'm, just going to leave it at that.
2022 was a year full of successes as we stayed committed to moving forward and executing on our business plan or as one might say taking care of business.
We will cover our year end results for 2020 to provide an update on our pending merger with oven grid review operational highlights and share more detail on our earnings guidance for 2023.
On slide four I'll start with our financial results.
We finished the year with ongoing earnings of $2.69 just above our expectations for the year for 2023, we are narrowing our guidance range to $2 65 to $2 75.
In December our board increased the common dividend to $1 47 per share on an annual basis.
Lisa will walk through each of these numbers in more detail.
Next an update on our pending merger the case remains on appeal with the New Mexico Supreme Court.
The last months, we have been pleased to see the commission posts notice of three closed sessions with the case on the agenda, we do not yet have any information available.
In new Mexico, the newly appointed Commission took their seats in January it were confirmed by the New Mexico Senate earlier this month.
We have already seen their experience and expertise on display.
Looking forward to working together to achieve new Mexico's carbon free energy future.
In December PNM filed its 2024 rate change as planned.
Our last case was filed in 2016 with a 2018 test year.
We deferred our plans to file earlier, because it was not the right thing to do during the pandemic and we remain committed to the stay out agreement, we made with our parties during the merger negotiations.
We moved forward with funding needed infrastructure projects and now in an environment of rising costs, we're able to propose a 'twenty 'twenty four bill impact of less than 1%, partially because of our exit from the San Juan generating station.
Don will talk about more details of the case and the schedule leading up to an expected decision before the end of the year.
In Texas, we made our first transmission cost of service filing for 2023 in January reflecting another strong year of investments in Texas to support growing customer demand.
In a year of supply chain and labor challenges. Our teams planned ahead and remained agile, while expanding our system and interconnecting energy storage systems chemical plants, crypto mines and data centers.
Before I turn it over to Don I will cover our ESG highlights for the year on slide five.
The retirement of the San Juan generating station is our top environmental achievement in 2022.
More than half of our resource portfolio is now carbon free with additional renewable and storage resources slated for 2023.
However, our accomplishments stretch far beyond this plant.
We continue to add more electric vehicles to our fleet.
We continue to work to expand customer energy efficiency programs collab.
Collaborate with industry experts to address physical climate risks and partner with stakeholders to bring awareness to environmental concerns impacting our communities.
We developed a greenhouse gas emissions inventory for scope, one two and three admissions to address the evolving disclosure needs of investors and other stakeholders.
We also implemented an environmental justice geographic mapping and screening tool to better identify and prioritize communities most in need of investment.
We continue to work towards fostering a diverse workforce representative of the communities we serve.
In 2022, our percentage of minorities and women increased to 53% and 28% respectively.
Equity and inclusion are key to building a sustaining diversity at all levels of the organization and we are continuously monitoring our approach for our desired results.
One of the biggest priorities for our teams was to support the employees at San Juan through the plant closure and to ensure these team members left with dignity pride and resources for their future we.
We provided career counseling and transition training.
Benefit reviews and retirement planning.
We are happy that approximately 20% of these plant employees are still working for the company in various roles.
Ultimately have the employees in the last years of the plant received severance payment.
Around 75% of those were also retirement eligible.
Through the energy transition Act, we also funded severance and job trading for employees of the associated coal mine.
It was a challenging year, the labor market and we took extra steps to take care of our team members and to ensure that our teams have the necessary resources to continue supporting customers.
We also turned our eyes towards the future and created a statewide business coalition to expand internship programs offered through our local colleges.
We already have some of these in turns joining the company full time or continuing their internships in 2023.
These are students who recognize the challenges and opportunities created by the transition to clean energy in new Mexico, and they want to be a part of our solution.
At the same time, we continue to expand upon our educational support for the Native American population in the state funding and endowment specific to Pueblo students looking to continue their education at the next level.
Both of these programs serve to strengthen new Mexico's future workforce.
And they also provide a fresh perspective and contribute to the diversity of thought.
We know that the future challenges in our industry will require new ways of thinking and look forward to what these students can contribute with that I will turn it over to Don Thank.
Thank you Pat and good morning, everyone I'll start on slide seven with our load growth by service area with PNM first.
Drew is two 9% in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year with growth coming from all customer classes.
For most of 2022, we saw residential and commercial load growth above our expectations, while industrial customer expansions were delayed by supply chain and related market issues. We.
We expect the growth we saw in the fourth quarter to continue into 2023 between two and 3%.
We're still seeing the results of new Mexico's economic development efforts through our customer expansions. We also seek government and tribal projects that are less impacted by market wide economics.
At TNMP.
Hello growth in 2022 exceeded expectations for both volumetric and debate the band base load plus the added growth from crypto mining customers entering the market. These customers are mostly in our West Texas service territory for <unk>.
Biding, some economic diversity to the regions.
Our operations in North Central Texas.
And the Gulf Coast provide strong geographic and economic diversity to TNMP and each of those areas support our mix of business operations and growing residential and commercial communities surrounding the nearby larger cities for 2023 volumetric growth as expected at 2% to 3%.
Consistent with our full year results of 2022 demand based growth as expected at three 5% to four 5%.
The 2022 levels now.
Now turning to slide eight I'll cover the ways, we've been taking care of business at PNM, and making progress on our strategic objectives.
Information of our generation portfolio has been front and center, we have plans to exit coal and reach carbon free electricity by 2045 years ahead of the new Mexico mandate.
The closure of San Juan generating station. This year was a significant step in achieving these goals, reducing the amount of coal in our portfolio and advancing us to 55% carbon free capacity.
Our next big step is exit of our ownership stake in four corners power plant and completely eliminate coal generation from our portfolio, which we are still pursuing for the end of 2024.
As you can see in the pie charts, we are replacing these resources with renewables and battery storage after working through the 2022 delays firm PPA developers, we expect 350 megawatts of solar and 170 megawatts of battery storage coming on line in 2023 at that point over.
Half of our resource portfolio will be renewables and storage.
With our continued ownership at Palo Verde, we will have 61% carbon free capacity. These changes provide significant benefits for the environment and our communities and also financial benefits for customers, which I'll cover in a minute.
Another key to successful transition towards a carbon free portfolio is T&D infrastructure investments in our grid provide the foundation for serving the growing demand on PNM system and maintaining reliability. The peak demand on our system has been growing at a faster rate than our total load and we hit a new system peak in two.
22, our first since 2013.
Our focus has been on strengthening the infrastructure that directly serves customers substations and lines are being reconfigured to accommodate new customers along with customer owned resources.
We're building the system to be more resilient and reduce outage restoration times.
Other T&D investments at PNM relate to grid modernization projects, we filed our comprehensive grid modernization plan to implement smart meters and the other projects that will lay the groundwork for future improvements and provide our customers with more resilient grid.
When we look ahead, we see the need for expansion of our system or change in generation resources means the transmission capacity tied to existing plants can be used for the replacement options.
But as the resource needs grow beyond these replacement new transmission capacity will be needed to facilitate additional resources across the state.
Now turning to slide nine I'll walk you through the key regulatory proceedings tied to these investments as Pat mentioned in December we filed our first PNM rate review in six years.
Nm customers already benefit from having lower bills and much of the country and we work to balance the need for investments in our system with the impacts on customers.
Energy transition Act was designed to facilitate the transition to clean energy, while reducing cost to customers and this rate volume shows that it is working as intended.
Filling in the filing is a 2020 for future test year. So it rolls forward our rate base for the full six years and incorporates current cost trends.
The retirement of San Juan and the return of the Palo Verde leases reduces the requested recovery in base rates and also reduces the cost recovered through our fuel clause as replacement resources come online.
<unk> provides for lower financing costs as we make this transition all in the proposed bill impact in 2024 is limited to 0.9% or <unk> 75 per month for the average residential customer.
The procedural schedule in this case calls for intervenor testimony.
So our settlement filing by May 12, and hearing scheduled in June .
The schedule for our grid modernization filing includes hearing scheduled in March.
Remember that we have asked for approval of our project plan by July one of this year, but we delayed our requested implementation date of the rate rider until September one so that it would not be added to summer bills. This summer.
When usage is typically higher.
We also prioritized low income customers and communities in our filing.
These are the customers most in need of tools to manage their usage and bills.
Also makes sense to bring improvements to these areas first.
Also in March the New Mexico Supreme Court has scheduled oral arguments and our proposed exit from four corners power plant in December of 2021. The commission rejected our filing to exit our ownership share of the play out and securitize, our underappreciated investments the briefing schedule was completed in 2022.
And we are looking forward to the oral arguments for a further opportunities to present our case.
Now turning our attention to TNMP on slide 10, our focus has been to maintain investment levels to keep up with the pace of growth the rate base doubled over the course of five years with another strong year of investments planned for 2023, the needs range from serving new residential subdivisions.
Two connecting new chemical plants, the regulatory environment in Texas continues to support these investment levels.
We have made use of semi annual transmission recovery filings, along with annual distribution recovery filings.
In January we made our first transmission filing for 2023 requesting over $150 million of project cleared by December of last year.
We would expect to recover to be approved and implemented by March of this year with that I'll turn it over to Lisa to cover the numbers in more depth.
Thank you Don and good morning, everyone I'll start on slide 12.
The summary of the changes in 2022 earnings compared to 2021.
Earnings per share from $2 45, and 2021 to $2 69 in 2022 as we have also been taking care of business on the financial side.
The key drivers are consistent with the items, we've discussed throughout the year.
Usage was up at both PNM and TNMP due to both load growth and weather, particularly at TNMP as cryptocurrency mining entered the market in West Texas.
Recovery of investments through the T cost and deep cause mechanism was also a significant increase to EPS at TNMP.
At PNM higher transmission demand and market prices increased earnings along with the addition of the weapon experienced contract.
Increases served to offset expenses at the utility for depreciation property tax and interest associated with our rate base investments along with increasing to our planned O&M spending.
Market losses on our decommissioning trust dampened the earnings at earnings growth at PNM, We took actions in 2022 with fund managers to ensure alignment with our portfolio objectives.
To be clear the decommissioning trust along with our pension plans remain well funded despite the challenging market conditions in 2022, and we don't anticipate making any cash contributions to deep trust in the near future.
Earnings at our corporate segment are driven by the whole by holding company debt and in 2020 to higher interest rates reduced EPS.
Turning to slide 13, I'll cover our expectations and key drivers for 2023 guidance.
As Pat mentioned, we have narrowed our guidance range to $2 65.
$2.75 per share.
Given the growth we've seen in Texas, and New Mexico in 2022, we brought up the bottom end of the range to $2 65.
In terms of our load our guidance assumes a return to more normal weather conditions, which is partially offset by load growth at both PNM and TNMP.
At PNM cost reductions from the retirement of the San Juan generating station and return of the Palo Verde leases net of replacement power cost offsets depreciation property tax and interest.
Associated with new investments.
At TNMP rate recovery through the T cost and D cost writers cover cost increases associated with new investments.
We continue to expand our system for increasing demand and economic growth.
At PNM, we don't expect the realized market losses on our decommissioning and reclamation trusts to repeat in 2023.
And that corporate we haven't assumed higher interest expense to reflect the current interest rate environment, including $850 million of swaps, we entered into last year to mitigate our exposure until we reduce our variable debt levels either through a successful merger or putting more.
Permanent financing in place.
We continue to assume the add up to $200 million of equity in 2023, which would have a dilution impact on EPS at each of our segments shown in the appendix slides.
Our our full guidance range accounts for various timing assumptions with a potential impact of up to eight for the year tranche.
Translating into a four cent impact to the guidance midpoint.
Slide 14 shows our continued plans for capital spending through 2025 and associated rate base growth.
This investment plan continues to be focused on T&D infrastructure and meeting the growing needs of customers across new Mexico and Texas.
And includes our proposed grid modernization plan at PNM.
Rate base growth at 8% from 2020 to 2025 with strong growth coming from both PNM FERC and TNMP.
At PNM investments in infrastructure support retail customer growth and to replace the rate base that is removed as we transition out of coal.
We've been able to defer a rate increases for our customers, while continuing to earn our authorized return.
FERC investments have grown rapidly with the addition of the Western Spirit project at the end of 2021.
Our other transmission investments are with timely through the annual formula rate update.
TNMP gross at 17% over the period.
Infrastructure is added to support reliability in our growing service territory.
The transmission and distribution riders provide timely recovery of these investments without a general rate case.
The details of our spending beyond 2025 will be provided later this year, but we're comfortable we can continue our growth target of 5%.
Slide 15 shows our growth targets and historical achievement.
The midpoint of our 2023 guidance achieved our previous targets for growth.
Breaches.
On your growth rate of six 7%.
We are on track to meet our current target of 5% growth for 2008 through 2025.
Growth isn't linear every year, because the factors like weather timing of regulatory filings or market conditions, but we remain focused on the long term view.
Our 8% rate base growth over the period is partially offset by the assumed equity in 2020.
This maintains our investment grade credit metrics.
Places us in good position moving forward and we are confident in our ability to continue targeting 5% growth.
I'll wrap up on slide 16, with our dividend.
We look to growth dividend consistent with earnings targeting the midpoint of 50% to 60% payout ratio.
In December .
The board of directors raised our annual dividend to $1 47.
The 5% five 8% increase with a payout ratio of 54% of our 2023 guidance midpoint.
Our board typically addresses the annual dividend.
Dividend in December when finalizing our financial plans for the following year mainly.
Meanwhile, we will continue to pay dividends until the close of our merger with that I'll turn it back over to Pat.
Thank you Lisa before I open it up for questions I would like to thank our team members in new Mexico, and Texas for the Great work. They did in 2022 and continue to do in 2023 to take care of each other our customers our communities and the environment with that Joe Let's open it up for questions.
Yeah.
Yeah.
We will now begin the question and answer session.
To ask a question you May press Star then one on your telephone keypad.
If youre using a speakerphone please pick up your handset before.
Pressing the keys.
To withdraw your question. Please press Star then two.
At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster.
Yes.
And our first question here will come from Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, Tim.
I am Paul Good morning, Paul Good morning.
Alright, Thank you all.
The first one I saw the comment about the additional equity potentially in the second half of 'twenty three.
Could you give what was the 2022 <unk> to debt and just expectations there for 2023.
Yes, Paul So we always are.
Target.
Between 13 and 16%.
And.
Absolutely.
Hum.
<unk> thousand 22 was just around the 14th.
Okay great.
And then secondarily. Thank you for the background on the Trust performance I know you mentioned some actions you took with the fund managers in 2022.
Could you explain what are the assumptions that you're embedding for <unk>.
Format for 2023, I think it's like a 15 to 19 cents.
<unk> I don't know if thats just kind of.
Reversal or you assume higher returns or some sort of mix.
Yeah, Paul So we just at 2022 it was really a bad year, where 75% fixed.
Income and 25% equity in that MTT Trust and so we don't expect the same market conditions in 2022 going into 2023.
Okay.
And correct me if I'm wrong I think if it's just kind of flat market conditions wouldn't that just be like an.
Unchanged year over year.
I was just confused about the improvement.
Yeah. So if you remember regarding our MDT. So when we have realized gains or losses, and the <unk> T trial, it will flow through the income statement and on.
Unrealized will oh.
The ongoing so as a result last year, we had a library.
Losses, because the fixed income manager in particular.
Yes.
Their portfolio and so they realized losses during the year and we don't anticipate that next year.
Okay. No. That's very helpful. Thank you and then last quickly if I may do you have any additional interest rate hedges for 2024.
No we don't but we do.
Uh-huh plan to issue like we said before.
Up to $200 million of equity. We're also looking to do securitization at the end of the year. So our variable rate debt X folks you will be a lot different in 2024.
Yes, great. Thank you all very much and have a nice weekend. Thank you.
Our next question will come from Ryan Levine with Citi. Please go ahead.
Good morning.
Good morning, Ryan.
Everyone.
The general question in terms of the pending merger application.
Wonder what scenarios would you have to re file the application entirely.
Yeah.
Orion.
Right now its with the Supreme Court.
Note that the commission has had some.
Hearings.
In private confidential hearings that we've noticed we don't know the details of those at this point.
Not sure exactly what would trigger a re filing so.
Okay.
And any color around.
Dividend policy in the interim.
Pending.
Pending the potential application being.
<unk> executed on is there any ongoing conversations around any dividends.
<unk>.
No I think as Richard said the board.
Does the dividend in December they just increased it last December so they would not be.
Doing that again until December and so we anticipate the merger would close before then so.
It wouldn't deal with it in this December .
Okay, all right. Thanks for the clarification, okay. Thanks.
Thanks Ryan.
And our next question will come from Jonathan Reeder with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, if you could just expand a little maybe on the last question. Mike can you just discuss your latest thoughts in terms of.
The merger approval process potentially gets going again on what the Prc's timeline to reach a final order might be I know, you're just kind of indicated certainly expected before.
December .
And then do you need to first pool the appeal of the Prc's decision. That's currently pending at the Supreme Court and if so do you have plans to do that.
You know Jonathan right now we need to wait to see what the commission.
Has done and they're set.
Sessions, if anything and so right now we're in a holding pattern looking forward to hearing about their.
Their deliberations and any outcomes.
We will determine what next steps are.
So in what form are we going to hear.
That from the PRC like I mean.
Are they required are scheduled.
Give us some sort of update.
No I mean they have.
Listen the up in meetings. They have reported on the fact that they have had closed sessions and delivering one of the following math on matters and in particular on the merger case that Commissioner excuse me Chairman O'connell has recused himself and they have deliberated on that so.
So that is all we have heard I would assume at some point in time, They would report out on an open meeting.
But it is there is no timetable for them to do that.
Okay.
And then I guess, how do you guys handle it from year end with the merger agreement expiring here.
In April yes.
You haven't heard anything from the commission.
You haven't pulled your appeal like what.
What should we expect in terms of that.
Yeah.
The board's going to consider all the merger potential merger extension items in due course and not going to speculate now on what what happens in that April timeframe.
Okay, and then I guess, just given the passage of time and everything.
Are there additional concessions that might need to be made do you think you know all the prior signatories to the settlement are still onboard with the deal.
Should we expect you to file like a.
New settlement agreement that at least.
Encapsulate.
The commitment that Havent grid made after the last settlement was filed.
You know I think it's a couple of things we have not heard of any of the interveners are not onboard we have not been actively talking to them about talking about the rate case in grid Mod.
With them and.
I'm going to speculate on the new application until we hear what the commission has to say I mean, that's really.
What we need to hear from them or what we need to hear before we decide next steps.
Okay, and then I guess from the Standalone growth perspective, I guess I was a little confused on slide 15 is a 5% long term growth target is that off the midpoint of the 23 guidance.
70.
Five year targets.
Or are you just kind of reiterating the 5% through 2025 off the 20 base.
So Jonathan we were very pleased with this slide you can see six 7% CAGR from 2013 to 2023 and what we have said is that we're comfortable with him and our growth target of 5%.
We've set out the growth target of 2020 to 2025 and.
We will provide details on later in the year, but at this point, we're comfortable with a 5% growth.
Okay.
But just the 5% growth through 2025.
Or extending beyond there.
We are comfortable with the 2020% to 2025% and then as we look forward. The 5% is we're comfortable with that growth targets.
And we have and if you look at our capital Slide we haven't updated our capital past 2025. So when we do that if we end up doing that then we would we would go further on those numbers, but right now 2025 as a part of this we have for our projections.
Okay, and then last for me.
Expanding on the already to discuss financing needs and a non merger scenario.
Can you talk a little more about how you would address the 1 billion outstanding under the term loan.
It just long term debt a combination of.
<unk> and <unk>.
Equity beyond the $200 million already contemplated in guidance or perhaps do you take this strategy that seems to be popular right now an issue.
Convertible.
Yeah, Jonathan So what we've said is that we will put permanent financing in place we have talked.
<unk> talked about our equity needs for this year, but beyond 2023, we haven't exactly define what that is going to look like but of course that will be something that we will do later in the year.
Okay, Alright, great. Thank you for taking my questions.
Thank you and have a great weekend.
Yeah.
Our next question will come from Anthony crowded with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Thanks for the update on National Bart and today I really appreciate it.
Youre welcome just tip well Anthony I know you will.
Absolutely I just have one quick one and I apologize if you've already addressed this on slide 13 kind of weird Jonathan was headed.
You mentioned non merger scenario potentially for $20 billion of equity.
What is it.
And then maybe just splitting too many hairs here, but what if the mergers.
Approval process is still going on by the time, we get to end of 'twenty three.
The company is still do the equity or debt.
We needed to only.
The deal was voted down and therefore and I also appreciate it if you don't want to discuss it because the deal is still pending.
So we really can't answer that one right now because it requires a whole bunch of discussions with the board and oven grid and whether the appeal is still going on so well.
We will update you on that one next time, when we have some more clarity.
Perfect. Thanks, so much I'll I'll go to the bartender now thanks, Okay.
Again, if you have a question you May press Star then one to join the queue.
Yes.
Our next question here will come from Tim Winter with Gabelli funds. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and congrats on a good year.
Good morning, I was just hoping for some more clarification on the interplay of the merger application between the Supreme Court and the commission. So so you need that what I understand is you need to you would need to pull the appeal with the Supreme Court to get the commission.
Commission moving on on your merger application and then the second part of that would be what does the commission remanded to the Supreme Court remanded it back to the commission, let's just say today, what would be the next process and then and then finally with one commissioner Recuse himself do you need.
Both of them to approve it or how does that work.
Start with the last yes, you need with one commissioner Recusing himself you need to have the two if you get one and one at the tie in and it fails. So that's one thing.
And next question is the Supreme Court remanded it back today, they haven't held arguments they haven't breached we haven't done anything so that the odds of that happening are counsel is looking at me none.
So I.
I shouldn't say non slim to none.
But what we would need to do is before the commission can consider it again its now in the Supreme Court.
We would have to ask with the commission for it to come back in the Supreme Court.
Would have to consider.
That case, so we would need both parties or I should say all parties to ask for it back from the court.
Okay. So that wouldn't just be your decision is.
It's more than that.
Yeah, you're correct it is more than that.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Sure.
Do you have any you know any thoughts on.
Extending the merger agreement or how long this is going to play out.
Yeah, No Tam, we're just going to wait and like I said, the board will consider everything and in due course and Theres really no.
No reason for them to think about it now because it's only in February .
So we will see what happens between now and then and they will.
They'll decide then.
Okay. Thank you.
Youre welcome.
This concludes our question and answer session I would like to turn the conference back over to Pat Vincent <unk> for any closing remarks.
Thank you Joe and again, thank you all for joining US. This morning, as I've said multiple times tip, your bartender well and please take a taxi home stay safe.
Uh huh.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you very much for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.