Q4 2022 Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC Earnings Call
Hello, and thank you for standing by while can see today's Coca Cola.
Fig Partners Q4, I'm, that's why 2022 results conference call.
Time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After the Speakers' remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
Good question during the session you will need to press star one one on your telephone.
Suppose you that this conference call is being recorded.
I would now like to hand, the conference over to Vice President of Investor Relations and corporate strategy sever with it. Please go ahead server.
Thank you for joining us today I'm here with Damian Gammell.
And then John Kiani of CSI.
Before we begin with remarks on our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022.
<unk> of our cautionary statement.
This call will contain forward looking management comments and other statements, reflecting our outlook. These comments should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary language contained in today's release.
As well as the detailed cautionary statements found in reports filed with the UK U S Dutch and Spanish authorities.
Copies of this information is available on our website at Www Dot dot.
Dot com.
Prepared remarks will be made my Damian and Nik and accompanied by a slide deck. We will then turn the call over to your questions.
Unless otherwise stated metrics presented today will be on a comparable and FX neutral basis throughout any gross rate will be also presented on a pro forma basis with the full year financial year as Coca Cola European partners behind US. Please note.
The pro forma growth rates will no longer be relevant when talking about FY2023 and beyond.
Following the call a full transcript will be made available as soon as possible on our website and finally before I turn over the call to our CEO Damian if you live in GB. Please don't worry about the recent news coverage about much loved brand in one of my personal favorites.
She's not disappearing, but being rebranded as fantasy partner Grapefruit.
<unk> not looked at night over to you Damian.
Thank you Sarah and many thanks to everyone joining us today.
Before we start with our key messages I'd, particularly like to thank all of my colleagues at TCP for their incredible commitment and hard work throughout what was our first full year as Coca Cola Europe Pacific Partners.
And indeed, what a great year. It has been I am delighted with our financial performance.
<unk> strong top and bottom line growth with revenue and profit. Both ahead of 2019 levels value share gains on the.
Very impressive free cash flow generation.
This has allowed us to pay a record dividend to our shareholders.
Other diverse unsustainable Butler, we firmly believe we are well placed for growth in 2023 and beyond.
We also operate within our resilient and growing category with great brands that our consumers continue to load.
We will continue to invest and innovate in these brands under packaging supporting a solid growth platform for all our customers.
We are confident in the future and are fully committed to the higher mid term objectives announced other capital markets day in November .
Finally.
We are very proud of our strong relationship in alignment with the Coca Cola company and all of our other brand partners.
Okay.
So this slide and graphic will be familiar we have a clear, but vital purpose to refresh your and API and critically to make a difference for all our communities and our stakeholders.
And we have a clear focus around great people, great service, great beverages, all done sustainably for a better shared future.
So now I'd like to touch on each of these areas as we look back at 2022.
Ccp's ambition for growth and sustainability depend on our great people.
And the well being and safety of our colleagues remains our number one priority as a company.
We finished 2022 with a world class safety performance.
We are committed to encouraging all of our employees to live happy healthy lives. So that they're engaged at work unable to perform at their best.
I am pleased many of you got to see this for yourselves during the market and planters.
Part of our recent capital markets event in London.
We now offer a new employee assistance program, our EAP in all markets.
Providing all of our employees will exit the counseling advice our specialist information.
We accelerated our diversity and inclusion progress and this continues to be recognized externally too.
Im pleased that were recently included on.
The 2023, Bloomberg gender equality index for the third year running.
This demonstrates our commitment to gender diversity and the quality and fostering an inclusive culture for everyone of CCP.
We continue to encourage a culture of innovation.
And improve our digital tools in the workplace.
We were awarded gold at the UK employee experience awards and recognition of our progress.
Great service remains a key priority and is a critical driver of our performance.
Once again, we were the largest greater value in the retail channel for our customers within FMC Jay in Europe .
And then any RTD and API according to Nielsen and.
And in Australia, we were the largest value creator within the alcohol category to gaining over 250 basis points of value share in the RTD space.
I'm extremely proud of the way, we successfully navigated supply chain challenges throughout the year.
Unimportant and continue to invest ensuring our products were available on shelf and online.
Maintaining our high levels of customer service.
This year, we installed four new lines and upgraded to existing lines, helping us to meet the growing consumer demand for our beverages, whilst also delivering a range of sustainability benefit.
For example, our new state of the art can line in <unk>, Victoria is able to make up to 1700 tons per minute in a variety of formats, including mini cans, while also using less water and less energy that our existing loans.
In recognition of World class customer service execution, the Netherlands, where the runner up in the annual global Coca Cola Bottler competition.
<unk>.
And we've seen some great activation, particularly around the World Cup and the really important first to periods of Ramadan on Christmas.
On digital we continue to accelerate our <unk> platforms hitting record revenues of 2 billion euros in 2022.
That was up 50% versus 2021.
Finally through our ventures program. We recently partnered with two universities, who will be undertaking academic research into direct air capture at our sites to help us reduce carbon emissions.
On our journey to net zero.
We are extremely privileged to make.
Move and sell the best beverages in the world.
And we continue to recruit new shoppers across our portfolio.
In fact in Europe over 75% of households purchased from our <unk> portfolio in 2022.
The 70 basis points versus last year.
You will recall that we rolled out a new taste, new look and a new campaign for Coca Cola zero sugar across our markets throughout 2021.
This has been a great success driving volume growth of 10% in 2022.
Or an impressive 23, 5% when you compare to 2019.
Coca Cola creations were also great success in 2022.
With more excitement and new flavors to come this year.
Within flavors, new fan to flavor launches and the latest was to fund the campaign continues to drive excitement for our consumers, particularly over Halloween.
We also launched <unk> plus without caffeine in Australia with really promising early results.
Monster continues to gain share through innovation with more flavors launched introduced an ultra ranges.
During 2022 and.
In coffee.
We launched a new cost of property range and in Australia Centuri is minus 196% to 11, a brand has proved really popular in Japan continued to deliver solid growth.
And all of this will continue to be done more sustainably.
Our this is forward commitments were extended to our API markets in 2022, resulting in a unified action plan for CCP.
We continue to make great progress against our commitments undertaken action, where it matters most.
In Europe , we launched center closures on our PDT bubbles in seven markets with more to follow in 2023.
This new design, which includes a lighter weight Nick is estimated to save at least one gram of plastic per bottle.
Equating to approximately 15000 tons of Cotwo and over 9000 tonnes of plastic a year by 2024.
In Australia, and Indonesia, we invested in new PT recycling facilities.
These collaborations are a step forward towards creating a circular economy for PT and will continue to further accelerating our journey towards yield goal of using 100%.
Recycled or renewable plastics.
For more of our production facilities became carbon neutral in 2022.
Totaling six to date across different markets.
Our progress continues to be recognized and we are proud to have retained our coveted CDP and.
And MSCI ratings for the seventh consecutive year.
CCP was also recognized for our sustainability leadership within the Coca Cola system.
By winning the prestigious 2021 J, Paul Austin Award.
Finally.
I have the pleasure in sharing that CCP recently became a member of the Ellen Macarthur Foundation, an important partnership as we continue our efforts to transition to a circular economy.
So all in all a great year of progress.
Turning now to our 2022 performance highlights.
We're really pleased with our top line performance.
The continued recovery of away from home and further growth in the home channel helped drive a nine 5% increase in comparable volumes.
Our continued focus on revenue growth management and in particular, our efforts to actively manage headline pricing.
And optimize promotions across a broad back offering drove solid revenue per unit case growth of 6%.
This is ahead of pre pandemic levels.
But below realized cost inflation.
As reflected in our margins as we continue to prioritize relevance and affordability of our brands for the consumer.
We continue to win with our customers and this momentum as evidenced by our RTD value share gains and value creation.
Our continued focus on driving efficiencies, which Nick will cover in more detail. Shortly helped drive solid operating profit growth of 12, 5%.
This all resulted in an impressive adjusted free cash flow generation of $1 8 billion.
Enabling us to pay a record dividend to our shareholders and as mentioned earlier, we've made great progress on sustainability initiatives and.
And I would now like to hand over to Nick to talk in more details of the financials.
Nick.
Thank you Damian and thank you all for joining US today, let me start by taking you through our financial summary.
We delivered total revenue of $17 3 billion euros, an increase of 15, 5% and our Cogs per unit case increased by 9%.
Both of which I'll come back to shortly.
We delivered comparable operating profit of $2 1 billion euros up 12, 5%, reflecting our solid topline growth the benefit of our ongoing efficiency programs and our efforts on managing discretionary spend.
In line with our guidance, our comparable effective tax rate increased to approximately 22% from 21% in 2021.
This is largely due to differences in the mix of taxable profits across our different territories and the reassessment of our uncertain tax positions.
This resulted in comparable diluted earnings per share of three euros and 39.
Up 14%.
Free cash generation continues to be a core priority and we delivered an impressive $1 8 billion euros on an adjusted basis during 2022 and I'll cover that in more detail in a few moments.
And finally on shareholder return, we paid a total of 2022 dividend per share of one year or <unk> 68 up 20% versus 2021 in absolute terms. This equates to total dividends paid of approximately 760 million euros, which as Damian mentioned is the largest.
<unk> in our company's history.
So now if I turn to our revenue highlights the strong growth in our revenue was driven by both an increase in volume and importantly, our revenue per case.
Unsurprisingly the most significant improvement has been in our away from home volumes given last year's base was still impacted by lockdown restrictions.
That said, we are pleased that our away from home volumes have broadly return to 2019 levels with traction in immediate consumption and the rebound in tourism.
<unk> has been the standout here with away from home volume in double digit growth versus 2019, and Iberia with strong recovery to slightly above 2019 levels as well.
Strong trading in the home channel continued benefiting from the increased at home occasions, as well as continued growth in online grocery with volumes up 4% versus 2021 are up six 5% versus 2019.
So volumes were slightly softer than the fourth quarter up one 5% impacted by some customer disruption in Germany, as well as tougher prior year comps.
Excluding this customer disruption volume growth in the home channel would have been positive in the fourth quarter versus the minus 1% detailed in the release.
Im pleased that we were able to resolve this customer negotiation during the quarter and as Damian referenced earlier, our priority is and will continue to be to lead the category for sustainable value creation for all our customers.
Moving now to revenue per unit case, which grew by 6% for the full year, reflecting the strong growth in away from home, but also a testament to our revenue growth management initiatives with positive headline price pack and brand mix.
Unsurprisingly pricing took a bigger role in 2022 compared to previous years, given the inflationary environment and we successfully implemented both our first and second round headline pricing strategies across all market and I'll update on 2023 shortly.
Revenue by segment is also referred to here you can see more detailed commentary by geography in the release.
But at a headline level, Great Britain, and Iberia, where the standout but with both Europe and API ahead of 2019 levels on a revenue basis.
So moving now to Cogs per unit case, which increased by 9% slightly ahead of our eight 5% guidance.
This difference was primarily driven by higher concentrate costs as a result of our incidence pricing model. This is as you know directly linked to our revenue per unit case growth, which was stronger than anticipated as a result of our successful our GM and second round pricing initiatives.
As expected we saw commodity inflation in the low twenties in line with our guidance, reflecting higher aluminium and our pet pricing as well as the impact of higher gas and power pricing on our conversion costs. This past being more second half weighted.
Now moving to Opex and our efficiency programs, we have now delivered over 90% of our full year 'twenty one to 'twenty three program, which ultimately will amount to approximately 375 million euros of benefit in total.
We will deliver the final 30 million euros during 2023.
And in November we announced a new efficiency program aiming to deliver 350 to 400 million euros of incremental savings by full year 2028.
As a reminder, these benefits will be weighted towards 2024 and beyond.
You can now see on this slide that as a percentage of revenue Opex continued to decline in 2022, reflecting our extremely disciplined focus on driving efficiencies throughout the cost base more than offsetting our underlying cost inflation as well as the increase in our volume related costs and of course, PMA, which is natural.
The increase to support our topline growth.
Importantly, our Opex has declined not only compared to last year, but more importantly around 200 basis points lower as a percentage of revenue compared to 2019.
Going forward, we will continue to manage costs very tightly, but do anticipate further inflationary pressures in areas like labor and haulage as well at a certain element linked to volume growth this year.
So turning to free cash flow in more detail a hugely important metric for us and for you as well we generated $1 8 billion euros of adjusted free cash flow in full year 2022, and this slide lays out the key components.
Recognizing the importance of targeted investment we spent approximately $600 million in capex, excluding leases on supply chain digital and other technologies as well as cold drink equipment.
And as you know working capital remains a core focus for us and I'm really pleased that we delivered yet another year of significant benefits.
This included a notable improvement in API as we rolled out a proven and working capital initiatives in that region.
For example, we have now aligned Ati's annual incentives to Europe . So that incorporates free cash flow at targeted measure, which has naturally encouraged more focus on delivering improvement.
This has helped drive approximately 120 million euros of working capital improvements and API since the acquisition, taking the cumulative amounts, including Europe to approximately $1 2 billion euros since 2017, a remarkable performance.
Finally, you will see our reported free cash flow.
Also includes the benefit of a tax refund in Spain amounting to approximately 250 million euros, we have excluded that from the adjusted free cash flow to allow for better comparability given the unusual nature of this item.
And now to our leverage and balance sheet. We ended 2022 with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of three five times demonstrating the pace of deleveraging since we closed the <unk> transaction in May 2021.
Given our strong focus on driving cash and working capital improvements we remain confident that we will reach the top end of our target leverage range of two and a half to three times by the end of 2023, while remaining fully committed to our strong investment grade ratings.
We have a strong and flexible balance sheet and as a reminder, we won't need to refinance any of our existing debt for another two plus years, which is certainly helpful. In the current volatile rate environment.
Moving now to API and an update on some of our portfolio initiatives. We have now exited band side in Australia as planned and the majority of the proceeds have been received from the sale of our CCP owned any RTD brands as well.
And we have a more streamlined portfolio in Indonesia focus on our core sparkling and tea categories, which has allowed us to manage our supply chain more efficiently and deliver even better service to our customers across key calendar events like Ramadan and the Chinese new year.
Indonesia is a hugely exciting and attractive market for us and so we're really pleased to announce the purchase of the Coca Cola Company's 29, 4% minority stake in our Indonesia business, increasing ccp's ownership to 100%.
This was for a total consideration of 282 million euros and please note that this price includes a significant amount of cash on the local balance sheet and represents kols fair share of that cash.
While this transaction will be EPS accretive it will have a minimal impact at a group level for full year 2023.
This now simplifies our ownership structure, while demonstrating our commitment to the future of this exciting market in fact, the more time, Damian and I spend in Indonesia. The more excited we get about the opportunities ahead.
This is a market with a fantastic growth opportunity in the RTD category of over 10% a year.
We've already seen promising results from some of our portfolio initiatives evidenced by a 7% increase in revenue per unit case versus 2019, and so we're looking forward to the longer term value creation opportunities that this market offers as we continued to reshape our route to market to be fit for purpose.
So let me move on to guidance for full year 2023, which now reflects our view of the current market conditions.
We expect revenue growth of 6% to 8% and Cogs per unit case growth of approximately 8% both of which I'll talk to more on the following slide.
With our continued focus on Opex management, we will look to deliver operating profit growth of 6% to 7%.
From a phasing perspective, we anticipate low single digit operating profit growth in the first half.
Afflicting, the Cogs per unit case com.
Please note that these growth rates are all provided on an FX neutral basis, and while it's too early to.
To provide specific FX guidance for modeling purposes, we do expect to see a translational FX headwind for the year at current rates. We will of course continue to update you as the progresses.
On interest we do expect a small increase versus 2022, given the impact of higher rates on our floating note exposure at around 10% of our debt.
As well as the loss of interest income associated with the net cash outflow from the Indonesia minority buyouts.
As I referred to last year, we do anticipate an upward trend on our effective tax rate driven by known tax rate increases.
We therefore expect our ETR to increase to around 23%. This year with the UK tax rate increase from 19% to 25% effective from April this year being the main driver.
We will continue to update you on our expected ETR, including our assessment of any uncertain tax positions as the year progresses.
We will continue to maintain a progressive dividend payout ratio of approximately 50% and finally, we expect to deliver free cash flow of at least $1 6 billion. After capital expenditures, which this year are expected to be in the range of 4% to 5% of revenue excluding lease payments.
So let me now provide a bit more color on our revenue and Cogs guidance first two revenue intend to shape revenue growth will be mainly price mix led driven by anticipated headline price increases in 2023 combined with the annualized impact of last year's second round of pricing.
We will also continue to focus on driving promotional efficiency, all of which will help us to offset some of the inflationary pressures that we are still seeing across the industry.
Our main priority is to remain affordable and relevant to the consumer and as such we continue to manage the business for the longer term with overall realized pricing tracking below inflation today.
We have great brands, which are consumers love and on the back of ongoing investment in innovation and brands products and packaging.
Category and brands continued to support a solid growth platform for all our customers.
The RTD category remains resilient to date ultimately we believe we can at least maintain or grow our share of the category led by our great brands and best in class capabilities and execution, all underpinning our guidance of 6% to 8% revenue growth this year and our customers will continue to share in our <unk>.
Two.
We've made structural changes to our business in recent years, which has positioned us more favorably from a volatile macroeconomic environment as.
As you know approximately 40% of our volumes come from more inelastic away from home channel, which is naturally somewhat more resilient and challenging times.
And in the home channel, we've made bold strategic decisions in recent years targeting value over volume and improving the underlying profitability of the channel.
We've step changed our recommended price pack architecture to address different consumer needs and now confidently play across a spectrum of package formats and recommended price points.
We also continue to actively manage our headline pricing and optimize our promotions through smart RG M. <unk>.
So we feel good about our category and our leadership position within it and despite what we see is a very dynamic external environment.
<unk> trading has not indicated any significant changes in the underlying consumer demand.
Moving now to Cogs and clearly these comments are based on what we know today, we expect Cogs per unit case to increase by approximately 8% weighted more to the first half given the comps from last year as previously disclosed.
This reflects higher concentrate costs tied to our revenue per unit case growth, which as we mentioned earlier will be the main driver of revenue growth this year.
You'll notice on this chart that concentrate now accounts for approximately 45% of our total Cogs versus the 50% previously indicated given the inflationary pressures we saw in 2022 through the commodities line.
We now anticipate commodity inflation of approximately 10% versus mid teens previously communicated as we've seen some respect in spot prices for certain raw materials, such as element in that.
That said, our indirect exposure to the higher energy and transport costs continued to drive inflation through our conversion cost line accounting for approximately half of our total commodities exposure.
From a hedging perspective I am pleased to say that we are now approximately 85% hedged for 2023 and approximately 45% for 2024.
Of course, we will continue to see other inflationary pressures within Cogs, such as labor gas <unk> power, mainly through the manufacturing line.
Clearly all this guidance is based on what we know today given that there is still some volatility, particularly in our indirect non hedged commodity exposure. We will continue to update you as the year progresses.
And on that note I'll pass back to Damien who will share a bit more on what you can expect from our portfolio This year Damian.
Thank you Nick and indeed, we have plenty to look forward to with some great plans in place with all our brand partners.
We will continue to invest in Coca Cola zero sugar.
With some fantastic activation planned around the FIFA Women's World Cup in Australia, and New Zealand.
In flavors will continue the excitement with what the fanta.
Loans Kirk's Orange in Australia.
And refresh right across Europe , with a new irresistible taste and.
They are smoothed campaign will drive consumers to try a great tasting costa ready to drink range innovation.
We will continue to be a core driver of our growth in energy, we will launch even more flavor extensions on our first ever energy coffee offering in Australia, amongst our Java, Loca Moca and <unk>.
And of course, we're extremely excited to be launching our Jack and Coke assortment in GB and Spain, and the Netherlands, hopefully many of you were able to sample. This at our recent capital markets event.
If not it will be here soon.
Before we close I wanted to take this opportunity to recap the new objectives, we set as part of our capital markets event in November .
We have a lot to do.
As we build on our current momentum I am confident that we have the right strategy to deliver on these ambitious targets.
So finally to recap our key messages.
2022 was another successful year for CCP with strong revenue growth share gains and further value creation FERC customers.
This alongside our continued focus on driving efficiencies drove solid bottom line growth and free cash flow.
Enabling us to pay a regular dividend to our shareholders.
Certainly we continue to accelerate our sustainability investments and invest in our ongoing digital transformation.
We are operating in a dynamic environment for.
But as the leader in what is a resilient and growing category. We are confident in our plans for 2023 and are firmly committed to our ambitious midterm objectives.
And of course, the foundation of success is great alignment and partnership we have with the Coca Cola Company and our other brand partners.
So to close I'd.
I'd like to once again, thank all of my colleagues at CCP Couldnt.
Can rightly be very proud of what we all achieved in 2022.
So thank you very much Nick and I will now be happy to take your questions.
Over to you all.
Thank you we will now begin the question and answer session. As a reminder, we kindly request only one question per analyst.
If you would like to ask a question. Please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced if you wish to cancel your request. Please press.
So one one again.
Once again, please press star one if you wish to ask a question.
Please standby, while we compile the Q&A.
So let me take a few moments.
Sure.
Our first question comes from the line of Edward Mundy from Jefferies. Please ask your question.
Jamie I'll tell you Nick.
So one question then.
So some pretty strong revenue per case in Q4 could you talk about progress on pricing so far year to date on the cadence of pricing through 2023, given your joint value creation model with key customers.
Thanks, Ed good morning.
Afternoon.
<unk>.
Yes, so we've been really pleased I suppose going back a number of years of CCP at our focus around revenue growth management on our MSR per case realization and I.
I think even during COVID-19. It was one of the highlights.
Of being able to deliver strong NSO per case growth on top of that we've seen our customers also expand their margins as well, which I think is great for our business and for their so so clearly we're in the middle of.
Negotiating pricing for 2023, we've successfully landed in a number of our markets. So we're very pleased with that.
Got to flow through of our pricing from the second half of 'twenty two.
It was unusual for us to go back to the market for a second price increase and Thats something that will remain an option as we look at 2023 again as well so as we.
You'll see how the year turns out clearly, it's something that we look at again.
Overall I'm quite pleased with where we are today as we were in February .
Some of our markets Iberia Nordics in Australia are already done.
France is clearly under negotiation at the moment, where we had a great 22 in France, and clearly we looked at being the best value creator for our customers within FMC G.
In France with a good balance between price mix and volume.
But we also know that those cost headwinds that make that line at the beginning remain in 'twenty three and so it's critical for us to kind of price against that going forward.
But again I come back I suppose what's good is we've seen our volume hold up well.
We've recruited more households.
We've gained market share on our customers in most cases have expanded their margins and I think that's a pretty good formula for long term value creation for us and our customers. So more to come on pricing as we go through 'twenty three obviously, it's something we'll update as we get through the first quarter.
Thanks Damian.
Part of it's the same question as opposed to taking a second question.
In the opening remarks, you indicated that we should trading is not really indicating any significant changes in underlying consumer demand and our volumes are holding up well why do you think consumption for your production is holding up so well.
I can answer that tastes great Ed.
First reason.
And.
I think it's a robust category and I think.
We've invested.
As have our partners, particularly the Coca Cola company amongst our sustainably over a number of years and I think that.
But solidifies that consumer preference I think on top of that I think amongst the Coke company continue to improve their marketing and product innovation.
So if you look at our brands on shelf now in Europe , Australia, and Indonesia, I think they look fresh they look young they.
They taste, great. We've innovated a lot around sugar free I think that continues to open up the category to new users. We've broadened our portfolio. So if you look at where we're now planning we're participating in more categories. So.
On top of it all I would say as a bottling business, we've continued to drive better execution and customer service. So it's hard to pick one single element.
Also think that we.
Did a good job of 'twenty, two managing price realization with affordability.
I remember on some of our calls last year. There was a question around where we're taking enough price.
So I think we were pretty consistent saying that we wanted to balance the midterm with the short term cost headwinds.
We took the right level of pricing, which allowed us to continue to promote our brands.
Keep them accessible for our consumers so.
Yes, I suppose what I feel good about is it's not one standout action I think it is.
<unk> of good decisions over a number of years.
The category that people continue to enjoying a daily basis, and I think thats part of its resilience.
You also see that we're looking to connect much more on the digital platforms on social media I think some of the new assets, particularly around Brian Coke and Coke zero.
On the gaming side or a music continue to kind of build out our preference so bit of a long answer Ed.
Theres a lot in there and I think it's.
It's <unk>.
<unk> for our investors, but thats over multiple years, it's not just one thing we did in 'twenty two.
Great. Thank you.
Okay.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Eric <unk> from Morgan Stanley . Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you. So just a quick housekeeping item and then a question in terms of the customer dispute and I apologize if you answered this already.
But whats the state of that has that been resolved and if so what was the timing on that and then.
The main question I had was looking at cash flow neck, you've spoken about the further opportunity in the past and you.
Gabe some some pretty healthy.
Mid term guidance can you talk a bit about where API is in working capital metrics versus the rest of the portfolio.
And.
The scope for both the API and the rest of the portfolio too.
Free up additional cash over the next few years.
So Eric.
Eric I might take the first question. Thank you good morning.
So thats the customer <unk>.
Situation was resolved in Q4, so we've come into 2023 and a good place was mainly in Germany.
But that's now resolved.
And it really impacted Q4 early December but as you saw in our results. We still had a very very strong Q4 on the back of that so I'll hand over to Nick to talk about free cash flow yes.
And we did call out actually when you exclude the impact of that disruption actually.
Q4 was in a nice level of growth. So as Damian said it had a quite a short term impact of about five to six weeks.
On free cash flow listen I think we've.
Hopefully demonstrated our commitment on that key metric.
And as I highlighted we have delivered.
Over $1 2 billion in benefits from working capital and only since the acquisition of API, which we hope to.
To forget was only about a year and a half ago, we were able to deliver about $120 million of benefits by taking some of the actions that we took here in in Europe .
So from an angle of where are we I think.
There is some more opportunity both in Europe and API differences.
In terms of where we would get that.
On Europe , I would say our focus is going to be over the next couple of years as we rollout our collaborative demand and supply planning how do we look at the optimal inventory levels and how that might then translate into some unlocking of cash benefit.
And ATI I think it's a continuation of some of the work that we've done in Europe around all three elements of receivables payables.
Payables and inventory and some of it is some of the housekeeping some of it is around tons renegotiation and looking at whats fit for purpose relative to competition in those markets as well and I think thats factored in as we said into a midterm guidance of at least $1 7 billion.
Clearly you will see we guided towards at least $1 6 billion for 2023, and I think Thats just a couple of drivers as we step back up to normalized levels of Capex clearly the type of benefits that we've seen in the earlier years on working capital will probably not be as.
Our strong given what we've delivered.
And then obviously as we also look at the elements around.
How we deliver on new targets for efficiency programs, there will be some restructuring cash as well, but we feel really good about that number as well and we'll continue to update you. During the course of the both for 'twenty three and beyond.
Okay.
Great. Thank you I'll pass it on.
Okay.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Lauren <unk> from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Great. Thanks, good morning, everyone.
Good morning.
About API.
A lot of pricing volume did come in a bit light I mean down so would just love some color on <unk>.
Volumes, there and kind of the outlook.
And how that changes from here. Thanks.
Sorry, Lora and good morning.
On the API was that the question just yes.
High volume.
Yes so.
We're pretty happy with the full year volumes coming out of API. If youre looking at Q4 in particular I think deals again, a strong quarter for Australia, and New Zealand and Indonesia exclude some of the SKU rationalization work that we've been working on so as you recall as part of the strategic review.
New post the acquisition, we've been working with the Coke company to be.
Much more choice for minimum what categories, we want to participate and in Indonesia, We really landed on two no surprise sparkling being our number one priority.
Secondly, and beyond that we've exited a number of.
Higher volume categories, but very very low or negative margin categories predominantly water costs.
Some skus and other categories that really were not generating value. So that certainly was the right decision. When we look at our business for the medium term, but obviously impacted volumes, but <unk>.
Beyond that I think there were some comps.
In Q4, if you go back to Europe from December 21, where we really started to see.
Bigger reopening we had the issue we talked about but I think if you just look at the full year, we are pretty happy with the volume momentum that we've seen coming into 'twenty three.
If you look at the market metrics for January in Europe in particular, we see quite a healthy start to the year in 'twenty three as well so.
Im pretty happy with our volume performance overall.
Okay.
So just I guess, a clarifying on API fourth quarter.
Ex the SKU rationalization give a sense for what volumes would have looked like.
And then in terms of looking forward.
Definitely so the great comment in the press release about current trading conditions.
There is a view that.
Europe escaped the worst because it was a warm weather warm weather winter so less pressure on European consumers broadly in terms of what their wallet needed to cover but a concern that the realities.
Ladies of inflation or still kind of yet.
Still yet to really materialize in terms of consumer behavior. So.
How are you thinking about that I know right now things in climate I'm, just curious on your view of that European consumers need.
Forward.
Yes, so back to your question on API I think if you. If you if you looked at the average of the year would've been pretty much where Q4 would have come in but we're not going to give specifics around the value of the SKU rationalization, but I think.
If you look at our Australia, New Zealand businesses maintained single digit growth in those periods. So.
Nothing beyond <unk>, what happens in our Indonesian SKU decision.
On the European consumer.
<unk>.
We continue to be mindful of the challenges they're facing so I think you've outlined quite nicely. What we are continuously looking at in terms of the impact of inflation.
Inflation under spending.
We haven't seen that impact our category yet we've clearly it's something we're mindful of it's reflected in our pricing strategy for 'twenty three as reflected in our promo strategy.
We continue to earn the right to price I think is our is our model.
Whether it's through innovation or marketing.
But we've got to justify to all of our consumers if they need to pay more for our brands. So we're very mindful level, we haven't seen it yet we've clearly seen some retailers.
Reposition and focus on their own brands.
That's clearly something that we've seen in the second half of 'twenty two I believe that will continue into 'twenty three.
Yes.
On the back of those challenges that you've outlined but so far.
We see a very solid consumer we recruited a lot of new households last year.
But I suppose we're still mindful that some of those challenges haven't gone away.
We're making sure that when we do take decisions around price and promo that we do so with that context.
And then we'll see where we go as you come into the summer it's been a good winter relatively speaking.
Obviously spring it's on its way in Europe , So, let's see what that brings.
Okay, great. Thanks, so much.
Okay.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Sanjay <unk> from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hey, Nick Damian.
Just coming back to the 6% organic revenue guide I think at the capital markets Day, you outlined an expectation for the category to grow a high single digit in value.
Mainly driven by pricing so just against that context are you.
Embedding in any volume declines in Europe .
6% outlook for 423.
No we're not I mean again, we've given you a range that for a specific reason it's early in the year, but we actually do expect volume to grow and I think as I also highlighted we want to at least maintain if not grow our share as well.
So.
Our focus is on getting that right balance between the two elements that might be a little different in terms of shape versus what you saw in 2023 and part of that goes back to some of those pricing comments that Damian made earlier in terms of what we did in 2022 that has the carry on impact what we've already landed and then <unk>.
Obviously, what's to come during 2023 as well so.
That's the way we've looked at it so just to be clear we are looking at volume growth as well on the back of obviously very strong 9% volume growth in 2022.
Got it that's very clear just a quick quick follow up on commodities when you look at commodities today.
Are they below where you've hedged for 'twenty three.
Or any color you can give us there would be really helpful.
So it will vary obviously, depending on the commodity and those those move up and down.
So for instance, we were well covered on something like sugar and I don't think that pricing has actually moved against us it's been well.
Well positioned aluminum we will obviously narrowing on so if you look at an average price.
It's probably there or thereabouts, we will continue to see how the rest of the year plays out.
Where we still have an opportunity because we've kept about 20% open depending on the commodity type right was of about 85% hedged I think we've done a good job locking in on gas and power on the direct spend side, which was obviously the biggest concern now the element. That's residual is really around that conversion cost element in the <unk>.
Supplier pass through so when you really look at the Cogs unit case, and I'm, just giving you literally a broad perspective right now we have guided to that circa 8% overall on on Cogs per case, you could be looking at a point up or down depending on how things trend and will continue to update you on those.
But more importantly to your question I think we're looking beyond 'twenty, three as well and what do we do for $24 25, and Thats why I think you will start seeing some of that bigger benefits starting to come through.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Yeah.
Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Collett from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hey.
Damian Wille I'd also like to ask about <unk>.
Hedge coverage to 23, 84% above.
Above where you were this time last year when I think.
57% covered and I think you will see that.
The coverage for 'twenty for US is 45%. So I guess can you just comment on why the coverage is hall I appreciate we would be through a period.
Unprecedented volatility and although I know, it's early to talk about 'twenty four given that youll, 44%.
I wonder if you'd be able to make any comment at all.
On the likely headwind or tailwind to 'twenty four from commodities.
Yes, I mean to your question around why we covered more I think we saw leaving things open.
For as long as it was and the fact that it was rising and there continues to be uncertainty, where we saw opportunities and we've always talked about the fact that we've put in triggers in place.
Just try and take on number up from let's say, a 42 and <unk> 80 in one go.
So I feel good about our approach its been measured.
It's been looked at carefully across each of the commodity types looking at is the backwardation as their contango effect should be locked in some now should we wait.
And I think it puts us in a much better position in terms of what we control.
To be able to understand then how we need to be thinking about obviously pricing and back to Damian point over a multiyear period again right. So and that also helps us as we look at 'twenty fall with the coverage that we have and we're just under 50% covered that which gives us the opportunity to.
<unk> look at the market.
Based on what I see today.
And if those trends continue clearly you would expect that to be a tailwind in 'twenty four.
Content hard to quantify right now.
Understood if I can follow up.
I expect <unk> to have a tailwind how would you expect pricing primarily I guess revenue gross margin will tend to lead to behave if you start to get the tailwind from input.
Well I think it comes back to a point that Damian made earlier right. We've had a very disciplined approach to how we think about revenue growth management initiatives, and we want to balance and get that spectrum from affordability to mainstream to premium migration and thats back to again.
Pack diversification through the various channels. So I think we always have that promotional mechanics to to play with.
As we look at what might be happening, but keep in mind, you'll keep it youre looking at one element, which is commodities that other elements that drive inflation as well that we need to be looking at across the levels of our P&L. So it's not like suddenly everything turns into a deflationary environment, we haven't seen that.
In terms of wage inflation.
<unk> logistics et cetera. So you got to look at it holistically as opposed to just the commodity space.
Yes, I think just to build on <unk> comments, I mean, where we are.
Sure.
We're also looking at most of our market circa 40% of our revenues coming from outside of the retail of I suppose that's quite a different dynamic than most CPG businesses. So we do enjoy diversification not just on the private side, which we've been really focused on over a number of years to make sure if <unk>.
A supermarket or convenience store, most most of our markets youre going to see a lot of different pack sizes.
For many years all the way of providing facts that allows us to play a lot better with pricing in that affordability mindset, but also in premium amortization, which we haven't walked away from so despite some of those consumer challenges. There are a lot of consumers who are still happy to trade off.
So we want to make sure we capture that so you'll soon see glass packaging premium many codes of smart promo pricing for example in Australia. Our promo percentages discovers go from 50 to 40, we've actually gone billowed up in some periods not seen a drop off so that's encouraging and then on the other side, we've got our away from home business, which was our.
Our challenge during Covid for all the reasons, we know, but clearly having 40% of your revenues coming from outside retail gives us.
Lot more levers and tools.
To deal with some of those commodity headwinds and other inflationary points, including labor.
We can't forget that.
Clearly, we're seeing labor inflation also increase in Europe , and that's something that we're mindful of keeping our employees engaged and committed to our business. So we have a lot of tools and I think we've demonstrated to Nick said, a disciplined approach to using them.
But they are well in place, though after a number of years of really focusing on it.
Got it thank you.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Yeah.
Our next question comes from the line of Tony <unk> from Redburn. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hey, Damian cookbooks, well a good question on Indonesia. Please.
Clearly quite a big impact on the Q4 volumes, but could you maybe just give an update on Indonesia.
Has the reception been to the whole.
Product SKU trim, how you're spending ahead of Ramadan This year, where you normally see that akshay.
How is the route to market development going and then maybe you could just maybe talk a bit more about the let's say that the stake.
The Coca Cola company does it confirm any other benefits other than just simplifying the ownership structure and the reduced minority charge. Thank you.
Hi, Charlie.
I was in Indonesia early January is my first market visit after the new year.
I continue to feel great about that business.
So I think the changes that you called out in Q4 on a relative scale are quite minor for.
For the group.
I think we've made the right choices.
Around people so we've got a team.
Led by Jorge there <unk>.
Continues to.
Look at that business for the medium to long term strategically so we're very happy with what we've done on that side. We've made some good decisions around portfolio management with the Coca Cola company and as I mentioned earlier being <unk>.
Much more choice for around where we believe we can create the right to win.
In sparkling and in <unk>, we havent done that yet so thats work in progress.
We have.
Made some good decisions.
That really allow us to run our supply chain better so ultimately putting less through our supply chain is helping us improve customer service, it's helping us be more productive on our lines.
Which overtime helps us manage capital better so I'm very happy with that.
Clearly, we're well set up for Ramadan.
And this week actually we have a big MIP across Indonesia.
To continue to get everybody into the market for that period. So I think again, we're set up for a great revenue.
And then obviously beyond that we are looking at what choices, we can make on our route to market and that's probably something that.
We will be able to come back to in the second half of this year. So we've been running some tests, we've been doing some modeling around what changes we could make.
But as you can appreciate those type of changes are.
Our significant we believe there are moves that we can do to create better value for us and indeed for our customers and Thats something we will probably finalize.
<unk> finalized in the first half of this year and talk a bit more in the second half.
And Charlie on your question around that.
Round ownership I mean, I think it was.
Two fold I mean, one I think it comes back to Damian point around we feel really great about that business.
And that minority stake was something we had always looked at as an opportunity to take 100% at the right time. So for US. This was a great time in terms of some of the changes we've been able to make and what we're looking at going forward, but I think it also comes back to probably the Coca Cola company feeling good around.
Our ability to run this operation well and hence.
Their own view of being able to sell that balanced state to us. So I think it works for both sides.
Great. Thank you very much.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Rob that often starting from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you very much.
Two questions. Please one I'd like to follow up on.
On your comment that retailers are putting maybe a little bit more focus.
On on their own brands can you please remind us.
What the.
Whether first of all whether whether that is.
A general comment our comment in terms of beverages.
Roughly what the kind of private label.
Your private label exposure is in key markets and a little bit more detail in terms of what you mean by focus.
Thank you.
Hi, Robert.
As a general comment across multiple categories.
I think it's not just in beverages and snacks and beverages.
The private label share is lower than it is in most of our categories. So I think over a number of years.
In Europe , and in Australia, and New Zealand, we've demonstrated the value creation of brands and beverages.
So typically what you will see across all of our markets is that the private retailer brand share within beverages is lower than it is in other categories. So I think that's a good starting point for us.
It is obviously part of our proposition to offer value and therefore, they do it across all categories. So beverages is one of many many categories that they've.
But they have always been around so this is nothing new so I think we should also understand that retailer brands in Europe in particular have been part of the landscape for many many years.
And typically in terms of value share.
It differs by market, but obviously significantly lower than where we sit.
And so far we've gained share. So I think this is not a new phenomenon. So.
Really kicked off.
Over a number of years, we saw kicking up a bit in the second half of last year of some of those inflationary pressures came into our markets and retailers responded, but despite that we gained share in the second half of the year. So I think our value creation story that smart or GM.
Good customer service.
And the continued investments the margin story on our brands is very very strong for our retailers. So I think ultimately that's what drives growth and Thats what were focused on fully.
Fully recognizing that they will continue to have to manage some of their value propositions.
For their business and that's something that we've seen but again, it's nothing really new.
But it does kind of peak and trough, particularly when you get some of the more macro headwinds for consumers.
But so far we feel pretty good about where we are but obviously, it's something we keep a close oil.
And Robert just to add one point to Damian.
Comments is around when you do look at NAR TD, there's certain subcategories that have much more private label penetration. So if you take a look at juices or water. They already have a high share, but keep in mind thats not typically where we're playing in in fact, we've exited some of those so the category.
It is from a value perspective, there were a lot more focused in on we're not necessarily seeing the same level of <unk>.
Pressures, but as Damian said, we're constantly monitoring that to ensure that we remain relevant to a broad consumer base.
Sure can you I mean.
You guys have been doing this for a long time just in terms of historical perspective.
What happened.
In prior downturns.
And let's just say for sparkling did private label go for maybe 5% of the market to turn.
Can you just kind of some rough ballpark king of of sort of worst case scenarios or what you've seen and what which markets are most.
Just exposed.
Yes.
It's not that extreme historically, so I think what youll see is typically.
And again as you said it does differ by market. So you may see private label on a volume side picking up a point to share.
Which overall on the value side, it will be a lot lower given the pricing.
Clearly they also face some of the same commodity headwinds that we face.
So we're also seeing private label pricing move as well because of all of the commodity.
Some markets.
But if I look back and we have looked back and we've seen what's happened in previous years, where consumer.
Spending is being challenged youre looking at a small share move Robert nothing nothing too dramatic.
And again, just on that pricing keep in mind that as a relative level that cogs impact of significantly higher for them. So that absolute pricing is have to move a lot more.
So just keep that in mind as well and obviously.
It doesn't impact that 40% plus revenues that I talked about earlier in outside of retail so again compared to other CPG souped up 80, 90% of the revenue locked in retail.
Now were well balanced so I think that also gives us confidence.
To deal with that going forward.
No. Thank you that's great perspective, and then just my last question could you. Please give us an update on your digital initiatives.
And to what extent you're implementing.
Real micro targeting of coolers and displays.
And are there sort of ways that that's improved your execution.
Yes, I think we outlined some of those initiatives at our capital markets event in November we continue.
To invest behind digital analytics, it's driving a lot of a good decision, making I suppose a couple of areas that I get excited about what the team in particular is promo efficiency.
We're being much more targeted around promos.
Works, what drives value for us for our customers what drives household penetration we've added a lot of households last year. So I think thats working.
We've taken on board some of the learnings from our Australian business bikes into Europe around looking at some post code analytics to understand really where we're doing really well and potentially where we see share opportunities and then tailor, making our proposition to those particular assets, whether that's displays as you called out coolers merchandising frequency.
C.
Promo frequency.
R&D advertising in and around the stores. So there's a lot of different initiatives. We're also continuing to drive over $2 billion of revenue through our online b to B portal, which I think is one of the biggest globally now.
We're adding more services for us for our retailers. So they can continue to.
<unk> used up for a number of initiatives beyond ordering so a lot happening across the board Robert and its something that we will continue to invest in and honestly, we've made great progress, but in many ways, we're still at the beginning.
I think every conversation I have with the team.
There is a new idea coming up there is a new initiative. So it's a very exciting part of our business.
And I think we're leading I think honestly, we still have a long way that we could go.
Thank you very much.
Thank you we will take our next question.
Our next question comes from the line of Brett Cooper from consumer edge. Please ask your question.
Yes.
Thank you I wanted to ask a question more holistically on whats pressured the business as it relates to margins. So 2022 gross margins are down roughly 300 basis points from pro forma 2019 level. It seems like we have ongoing pressure into 2023 and I appreciate the rationale for not fully covering inflation, but on the 17 billion euro revenue businesses grow.
<unk> recovery of that margin significant profit and cash flow. So was hoping you could scope the drivers of that decline and then your thoughts on the ability to recover those those drivers over time and then just finally.
Clarification as to whether the recovery of those margins are embedded in your long term targets. Thanks.
Yes, Great question, Brian and I think.
As we've highlighted a couple of times, we want to do this in the right way looking at both what we need to do in the short term, but also what is that midterm objective.
The first piece of data that I would give you that there's nothing that structurally different in our markets our environment that would not allow us to get to those margin percentages right for US right now it's been about very much growing absolute.
Cash margins and I think we've demonstrated hopefully very strong results of that.
So we definitely plan to get back.
We will do that in a balanced way is that built into our long term algorithm was part of it is built in when you just think about what we want to continue to drive on an efficiency basis.
And part of it is back to the point that Damian made earlier that we have been disciplined since we formed Coca Cola European partners, and now Europe Pacific around Smart RG and looking at opportunities of optimizing promo looking at pack diversification.
Away from home channels coming back nicely.
We're now back at about flat levels from a volume angle.
In that channel a couple of markets still have an opportunity to get back to 19 levels. So.
Yeah, we are focusing on that but I think we've got to look at it.
In stages and right now we want to continue ensuring that we are relevant play across the spectrum in terms of the affordability and the <unk>.
And continue to grow more at home locations and at the same time look at what we can do to.
Get more growth in the away from home channel and improved our profitability in those channels as well.
Great. Thanks.
Thank you.
We will take our next question.
Our last question comes from the line of Matthew <unk> from Exane BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Thank you Damian and Nik.
My question is just on the the away from home volume performance in Q4.
In the release I think you mentioned that.
Are you from high volumes in Q4 were $4, 5% below 2019 levels.
A little bit of a slowdown from I think 2% above.
In Q3.
Similar in Q2. So I was just wondering what was the what was the drivers of that kind of a sequential slowdown.
Are you seeing those trends continue.
First one on all fronts.
Juan.
Hi, Mike.
Well.
So short answer no we don't see them.
As you call. It we don't see a slowdown actually I mean I think.
Some of the comps obviously in the quarter things will move around but what we've seen consistently over the full year is strong.
Opening.
Of away from home across all of our markets that I think from an outlet level.
We're above 90% outlets that have reopened post COVID-19.
So that's good we're now seeing traffic.
Continue to.
Improved tourism has come back so.
So people are flying again, so a lot of the drivers, particularly in markets like Spain with tourism et cetera.
Have come back very strong so we see that as a positive going into 'twenty three.
So.
We see that.
Growing ahead of where we were.
So nothing that we've seen on away from home to cause any concern at the moment.
And just just disaggregate that a little bit I mean, essentially you're looking at flat in Q4, but if you actually look at some of the markets like Iberia GB France. Those have continued to see good growth right. So I think we'll continue to monitor annual number again youre looking at numbers that are quite different in terms of the.
Base when Youre looking at Q4, because it's a smaller away from one quarter to begin with right.
Relative to Q2 and Q3.
And to Daniel's point, we have nothing that we're seeing in Q1 to date that would indicate a continuation of that trend.
Alright, thank you.
Okay.
Okay.
Thank you I would now like to stay.
Damian Gammell for his closing remarks Damien. Please go ahead.
Thank you operator and again, thank you everybody for joining us today, so hopefully you've.
We've shared with you our full year 2022.
Great set of results and again I want to take this opportunity to thank everybody, who works with us with CCP.
And what they do everyday to make this business, great and continue to grow.
Nick highlighted we are in a dynamic environment that we saw.
Up to that quite a bit today to Q&A, but we do operate in a very resilient.
I am very much a growing category.
I think over a number of years, we've made the right decisions of CCP to build a great platform provided durations for our shareholders and our customers.
This has been clearly bolstered by the acquisition of API as Nick called out was our first full year.
With API.
And indeed, we're traveling out there to Sydney to have a board meeting, Denmark. So we're looking forward to getting back into that market again.
So we are confident about the future.
Delivering on those midterm objectives, we laid out with you in November .
Finally, we remain very committed to delivering great service and value creation for our customers and that remains our priority in 2023.
So again, thank you look forward to speaking to you again at the Q.
Q1 and.
Have a great rest of day everybody. Thank you very much.
That concludes our conference for today. Thank you for participating you may all disconnect.
The conference will begin shortly to raise and lower Johan during Q&A you can dial one one.
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