Q4 2022 DT Midstream Inc Earnings Call
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by my name is Brent and I will be your.
Conference operator today.
At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the D. T Midstream fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call.
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After.
The speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session.
I'd like to ask a question at that time simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question Press Star one thank you.
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Lohrmann director of Investor Relations. Sir. Please go ahead.
Good morning, and welcome everyone.
Before we get started I would like to remind you to read the safe Harbor statement on page two of the presentation.
Including the reference to forward looking statements.
Our presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures.
Please refer to the reconciliations to GAAP.
And we have time.
Joining me this morning are.
David Slater, President and CEO .
Jeff Jewell Executive Vice President and CFO .
Now I'll turn it over to Kevin.
To start the call.
Thanks, Todd and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your interest in <unk> midstream.
During today's call I'll recap, our major accomplishments in 2022.
Highlighting our new disclosures to provide an update on our major development projects. We are currently executing on.
Close with some remarks on the macro fundamentals and then turn it over to Jeff to review, our financial results and new disclosure details.
So with that we had a very successful year in 2022.
And I'd like to thank all our employees for their exceptional performance throughout the year, we delivered full year adjusted EBITDA of $830 million, which exceeded our revised guidance range and represents 14% growth from our 2021 original guidance.
Commercially we executed numerous organic growth opportunities that will deliver long term growth and value creation.
Foremost among these are expanding our lead asset in the haynesville by 90%. So one nine Bcf per day.
Expanding our Appalachia gathering system by 20%.
Jeremy our contracts on Nexus and or Washington tenant store complex at attractive rates.
And finally, our plastics well permit for our Louisiana Ccs project.
We also closed on the Millennium pipeline acquisition, which makes US a majority owner in the asset.
On the construction front, we successfully executed our stonewall in Appalachia gathering expansions.
Michigan gathering conversion project.
A portion of our Blue Union expansion.
Finally, we published our inaugural sustainability report.
We're recognized for our exceptional customer service received the top ranking in the mass channel customer service study for midstream companies.
Looking ahead to 2023 and beyond I'm highly confident in our future growth and financial strength.
Jeff will provide the details on our new financial disclosures, including our increased 2023, adjusted EBITDA guidance and a strong early outlook for 2020 for our increased quarterly dividend and our updated five year capital outlook.
Before I pass it off I'd like to quickly address the natural gas fundamentals given the recent pullback in natural gas prices.
Firstly, we remain highly confident in our plan our portfolio is well contracted with long term take or pay agreements, our gathering assets or tier one resource areas that are well positioned on the drilling cost curve and we have no direct commodity exposure.
Our assets provide capacity to premium demand markets, which are expected to grow significantly between now and the end of the decade, our customers continue high levels of activity across both of our regions and are looking forward to the completion of our expansion projects.
Over our 20 plus year history, we have a proven track record of strong performance and downward price cycles.
And are highly confident in the durability of our business even in this lower commodity price environment.
I'll now turn it over to Jeff to walk through our financials and our new disclosure details.
Thanks, David and good morning, everyone in the fourth quarter of 2022, we delivered adjusted EBITDA of $227 million, which is a $20 million increase from the third quarter.
Pipeline segment results were driven by the fourth quarter benefit of the millennium pipeline acquisition.
Higher short term revenues at the pipeline joint ventures, and Washington, 10 storage.
And continued high levels of short term optimization at leap.
In total the pipeline segment results included approximately $7 million favorable optimization in short term revenues that resulted from the wide basis differentials across many of our assets.
Gathering segment results were driven by higher revenue at Appalachia gathering system offset by lower revenues at Susquehanna gathering and the impact of a planned maintenance outage at one of our Blue Union treating facilities.
Operationally, we hit an all time high this quarter and total gathered volumes.
Which averaged approximately $3 1 billion cubic feet a day driven.
Driven by the in service of expansion projects in both regions.
And partially offset by lower volumes at Susquehanna.
Now onto our new disclosures.
We are increasing our 2023, adjusted EBIT guidance to $880 million to $920 million, which reflects the strength and durability in our base business.
As well as the expected contribution from our organic growth projects.
The midpoint of our revised range represents 14% growth from our 2020 to original guidance.
Similar to 2022, our plan for 2023 is built on the expectation that volumes and EBITDA will be stronger in the back half of the year as we execute on our expansion projects.
We will also continue to seek opportunities to optimize the small amount of contracted capacity on our assets.
Due to our confidence in our portfolio. We are also providing an early outlook for 2024, adjusted EBITDA of $920 million to $970 million.
Which represents a 9% annual growth rate from our 2020 to original guidance.
Our growth plan is underpinned by fully contracted expansion with high levels of take or pay and no direct commodity exposure.
We remain committed to a growing and durable dividend.
Declared a quarterly dividend increase to 69 per share, which represents an 8% increase from our prior quarterly dividend. Our 2023 capital investment guidance of 605 to 690 million reflects a heavier construction period as we execute on our contracted growth.
Projects. The team is off to a great start this year with all projects on budget and on schedule.
We are also providing our new five year capital outlook of one seven to $2 2 billion.
This new outlook is supported by strong contracted cash flow and a backlog of attractive organic projects.
Our updated five year capital outlook can be fully self funded with no incremental debt or equity issuances, and we expect to naturally delever as the business grows which will provide.
Additional balance sheet capacity and further value creation optionality.
Preserving our balance sheet strength and financial flexibility continues to be our top priority.
With the ultimate goal of achieving an investment grade rating.
We remain committed to our long term leverage ratio ceiling of four times and.
And possess strategic options to Delever further.
<unk> financing at our pipeline joint ventures.
Which are currently under leveraged.
As of year end, we had nearly $700 million of available liquidity and no debt maturities until 2027.
Our decision framework for deploying distributable cash flow is designed to maximize shareholder value with our options, including deploying capital to accretive organic growth projects that fit our investment criteria.
Return of capital to shareholders through dividends or buybacks or paying down debt.
I'll now pass it back over to David for more details on our growth opportunities Ted and closing remarks.
Thanks, Jeff.
Continue to see significant growth opportunities across our existing asset footprint.
Discussions continue for further expansions of lead.
And we recently executed a five year term extension on 500 million per day of existing capacity.
This contract extension demonstrates the strong market support for this wellhead to water pathway and its connectivity to growing LNG markets.
We also continue to see momentum for expansions across our Appalachia assets as demand for pathways strong end user markets remains high.
We expect that our energy transition platform will become a meaningful contributor to the business towards the end of our five year plan.
With the near term priority of advancing our Ccs project towards a final investment decision.
And participation in hydrogen have opportunities in Appalachia.
So in summary, we had an exceptional year in 2022.
We have an exciting year in front of us as we execute on our growth projects, which will enable strong EBITDA growth through 2024 and beyond.
Our entire team looks forward to continuing our track record of performance for our customers and shareholders.
We can now open up the line for questions.
At this time I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad.
Your first question comes from the line of Michael Blum with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Thanks, Good morning, everyone.
I wanted to start on the Capex.
Budget. So you mentioned the heavier construction period.
I wanted to just provide a little more detail I'm, assuming slide 14 is kind of what captures the projects, but I'm just wondering if there's anything more to that and then can you also just remind us on what youre targeting for returns.
Sure Michael Good morning, This is David.
Yes.
This year will be a heavy capex year as many of our projects are executing sort of at the same time. This year just as you may recall, we reduced our organic capital.
Guidance in previous years and this is overall around the timing of when we're actually spending the capital for the construction of these new assets.
So this year is going to be a lumpy year for us.
You can sort of see it if you look at the five year Capex.
The revised.
The revised guidance at $800 million committed contracted organic investments and you can see that this year. The bulk of that 800 is being deployed.
That system the background around the Capex disclosure here for 2023.
In terms of looking forward.
We continue to focus on organic opportunities as we look to sanction any of those projects.
We're always looking for.
Accretive multiples and accretive to the equity holders, when we sanction and deploy that capital for organic opportunities.
Well aware that we have two primary businesses here the pipeline and gathering in each one of those segments.
I have a different value.
Thresholds around the capital deployment.
So we're constantly looking at that make sure that we maintain a disciplined.
Capital allocation regime here.
Great.
I appreciate it second question I wanted to ask was just on M&A, Obviously, you did the millennium deal.
Wondering just seems like there could be more assets in your backyard for sale in the near future just curious for your appetite.
For M&A.
Yeah, maybe I'll just leave it there.
Yes.
Sure.
I think our first.
Our first focus for capital deployment is organic.
Opportunities.
And we have been blessed over the last couple of years with an abundance of opportunities that the team has executed on.
Many more early stage opportunities that we're pursuing.
So that'll be our number one priority for capital allocation the way I think of M&A M&A is option value for us.
To compete with organic.
Capital allocation and we have to ensure accretion shareholder per unit accretion for any M&A transactions.
So thats, how I'd think about it I think about it as option value.
The market.
<unk> opportunities from time to time, and you can't really predict when theyre going to come.
For us, it's really just maintain that discipline of capital allocation, if it makes sense and it fits strategically is it's consistent with our investment thesis.
And it creates.
Clear line of sight to shareholder value accretion.
We will consider it but the plan that we're laying out here today in our guidance does not require any M&A activity.
Okay.
Got it thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Sollecito with Barclays. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, maybe just to start on the Haynesville outlook Wonder if you could give us any color on your expectations for base and growth here over the next couple of years and then you had a helpful. Slide there where you show the break evens on your gathering acreage and then obviously you have the indirect contractual support a leap, but curious if you could maybe just elaborate on the visibility whether it be NBC is there other factors.
As in the embedded assumptions you haven't seen the expected volume ramp up Blue Union over the next couple of years.
Sure Mark and good morning, Thanks for the question.
Yes.
Step back a second and may be address just the high level fundamentals with sort of the current commodity price environment that we're seeing.
So I'll say it this way our guidance reflects the most current.
Information that we have from all of our customers. So it's very fresh and very current.
What we are observing in the basin is continued discipline by the producers.
We're very disciplined in the $8 price environment. They continue to be very disciplined in the $3 price environment.
That being said just the resource quality in the Haynesville is tier one North America.
There is tremendous amount of resources that is highly economic.
Sub $2 price levels. So.
When I look at.
Sort of the current rig activity, which is still sitting around that eight rig level.
You've heard what some of the public producers have said recently.
They are being disciplined.
Following down the growth rate, but still growing I would reference some of the Comstock disclosures and I'm sure everyone's following.
Even though that producer is lowering rigs they are still projecting healthy growth volume growth in the basin.
We were seeing volume growth across our assets.
And what are pre the higher price.
Environment that we have for the last 12 months, we were seeing growth from our core shippers.
Even when the basin was running 50 ish rigs so I'm highly confident in the quality of the resource.
And that resource that we serve.
Expect to see growth.
Mark you alluded to the lead contracts and as most investors know our gathering expansions that we're in flight on marry into our Lima expansions that we're in flight on.
As we said previously our lease contracts are all demand base contracts. So there is there is a significant economic incentive for our shippers to fill those contracts.
And Thats exactly what we expect and that's all reflected in our 2000 and 324 guidance.
Great. That's helpful. And then if you look at the gathering segment volumes were up in <unk> EBITDA was down a little and you referenced some planned trading capacity made into <unk> could you talk about how much of the sequential decline in EBITDA was on the opex side versus margin dilution from the treating maintenance and I'm curious if you have the treating capacity expansion on Blue Union coming on later this year in <unk>.
Really what that does for the margin profile on your gathering growth on glue you need here.
Yes, so I'll take that in two parts Mark So first.
You said that the way you said it was accurate in terms of Q4.
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One of the reasons why I think we won that.
Number one midstream company in North America is because of the reliability of our assets.
That's very important to us and very important to our customers.
Planned maintenance at our largest treater in the Haynesville in Q4.
So yes, youre exactly right. There is a cost component to that planned maintenance and there is a revenue impact of that planned maintenance, but it is very important for us to do that or retain reliability for our customers.
In terms of looking forward.
Yes, we will be bringing gathering and treating facilities on in 'twenty, three and 'twenty four.
Volumes will ramp as those facilities come online.
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And I'll just I'll just leave it at that.
Got it I appreciate the time.
Thank you Mark.
Your next question is from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Hey, good morning, Thanks for the time I wanted to just go back to the spending guidance and how it kind of factors into this new five year outlook.
Like if we're looking at at 23.
Thinking about kind of free cash flow and then the dividend on top of that it's a it's a fair amount of outspend. This year. So I guess is the.
Is the message that we will see a fair amount of outspend this year, but for 24, plus that should reverse pretty materially I'm, just trying to think of kind of.
That outspend versus your comments on no incremental growth no incremental debt or equity.
Yes.
Thanks, John .
I'll start and then I'm going to pass it over to Jeff to maybe provide a little more color, but John I think the best way to understand this is just the lumpiness of the way the business and the timing of the Capex spend.
No more than that and I think in previous years, we back down our capex guidance as we were shifting spend and actually delaying spend too.
To help it actually improves the returns of the projects when we do that this year is a heavy here we have the big bump here in the Capex related to all the contracted.
Organic opportunities that were in flight executing on it.
If you look at our deck and I'm going to refer you to slide 13 and slide.
Actually it's slide 12, and slide 13, you can see that $800 million.
Existing committed organic investment the vast majority of that is getting spent this year.
So when you look at the difference between those two numbers, that's what's contractually committed for future years, So you're exactly right.
Committed today.
We will be much less next year than what we're executing on this year. So truly this is a timing issue I'll pass it over to Jeff to talk about the the ins and outs of the balance sheet as it relates to this.
Yes, and good morning, John This is Jeff Yes. So again this is in line with just following what David says you know this is in line with our plan that our ceiling is four times on our leverage and we're very comfortable.
With that and then as we move into 2000.
Four and beyond we continue to see as we've been communicating before that deleveraging down into the mid to low three.
As you get into the later part of 2024 also things that we have available to us on those are very strong contracted cash flow and the like but we've also got under leverage at our Jv's and so thats something that again, we're looking at all the various tools that we have available to us because again those are.
We'd be investment grade sort of potential vehicles that we could also utilize.
As we think about our balance sheet and maintaining a strong posture that we have so that's kind of how we're how we're viewing it.
Okay I appreciate that thanks for the color, maybe just one I'd love to hear an update on Nexus just how re contracting is going and whether or not you've made any progress on some of the kind of smaller scale whats call kind of expansion opportunities, particularly with MVP seeming to continuing to lag.
Yes, great question John .
Yes, we continue to see that.
NTP lag in the market and my sense is the market has sort of moved on from there.
Nexis had a phenomenal year in 2022.
Sure as you guys pour through all the details of the financial details youll see that as well.
So we're very happy with.
How that asset has been sort of.
How we have positioned and how we've repositioned it contractually.
In this new market structure, that's in front of US right now so as I said in my opening remarks, we continue to see this as very strong desire for pathways out of Appalachia.
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Two the strong market centers that all of our assets serve.
To that pathway.
So a lot of activity in 2022, we expect more.
Going forward in 'twenty, three and 'twenty four.
I'm going to ask for a little more time before I provide more color around some of the.
Some of the work that we're doing around Nexus, but I'll just say this John what we've talked about in the past we are continuing to work on and execute around which is how can we.
Creates more capacity on nexus without going through the FERC process.
And.
The team is working intensely on that right now and very optimistic that we're going to have.
Some positive results from those efforts.
Alright, Thats great I appreciate it.
Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with Jpmorgan. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning.
Good morning, Jeremy.
I just wanted to pivot to the Capex, a little bit if I could and just wanted to know if you could give us any sense for a little bit more detail as far as what buckets, so where the capex is going be a gathering versus interstate versus.
Energy transition, our haynesville versus Appalachia, or even specific project kind of scoping size, just trying to dig in a little bit more.
Jeremy I'll try to break that into two.
Two answers one is the committed capital so what we've contractually have committed today and in the vast majority of that is currently focused on the haynesville. So it's leaked.
And it's.
The gathering expansions that we're in flight on that are going to feed Lee.
And I'd say, probably the waiting is heavier towards the pipeline segment than it is towards the gathering segment in terms of the capital deployment.
And I'll leave it at that if we look at that that five year forward look so the call. It the 2 billion the midpoint there of the guidance.
In terms of how I think about where that will get deployed.
I fully expect a chunk of that is going to go into the energy transition.
Hi.
In the opening comments, we we sort of.
We're putting that towards the back end of our five year plan.
But the Ccs project is maturing.
In Louisiana.
We filed the classics well application last year.
Were in deep consultation with the agencies right now as we progress that project. So we expect that that project progressed to a point where overlap idea when we will.
We'll provide the investors more color around the capex and some more of the details but.
Feeling very good about that project very optimistic.
There's lots of interesting things happening in our northern region, especially in and around Appalachian with various hydrogen hub applications that we're participating in.
So we're feeling really optimistic there it's very much in line with our core competencies.
And a lot of.
Tangential.
Correlation to our existing asset footprint and customer base.
So again I think those are still early cycle projects, but I do expect a chunk of that will deploy into that segment.
Got it that's helpful maybe picking up with the Ccs side. There I. Appreciate this is a later dated in the decade, but just wanted to see thoughts you had at this point with regards to the total addressable market.
We're even more specifically as it relates to the Haynesville seems like economies of scale could really help economics here and so theres a number of other.
Treaters in the Haynesville. So how do you see this kind of unfolding.
It seems like you'd be focused on your own emissions first but then if there's others in proximity of would you would you look to to work with them would they be JV partners or do you think you can provide just provide the service for them just trying to get.
Any sense that you might be able to share with how that could develop over time.
Yes, that's a great question.
So youre right our focus to date has been on our own emissions and cleaning up our own emissions.
And we've provided some color around this project that we are targeting 1 million metric tons a year.
In terms of the.
What I'll call it the storage or the sequestration.
Passage of the formation.
We are very much thinking too.
Design and develop a project that has an extended runway that would go beyond our own internal needs.
And Youre right there are other neighbors in our neighborhood that half.
Similar plans, but they may not have the concentration that we have of Sidoti.
And you're very accurate in your statement that scale is important here you have to have scale for.
For the economics to box out with the 40 <unk> tax credit so.
I view that as an opportunity that will come that will be like a phase two opportunity for us is once we take care of our own needs look at potentially off to third parties I think its premature too.
Foresee how that third party business would evolve whether it would be a fee for service, whether it would be potential JV partner.
I think I think the market's still need to evolve a little bit around that.
But the other exciting part around Ccs that we see is it's.
It's transportable to other geographic areas.
Our footprint, particularly out here in the northern part of our footprint.
Hey opportunities for Ccs.
We have lots of early stage conversations going with clients, where this would be probably the most economical way for them to mitigate their carbon emissions.
So so again.
Our goal of establish the beachhead get this project need to take care of our own needs and then replicate in export that to other jurisdictions, where you have high concentrations.
Customers, where this is an economic solution for them to Decarbonize and you have the right geology.
The region to accommodated so very excited about this quite frankly I think this is going to be an emerging area for us and others that.
Will really help the country as we navigate the pathway to a lower carbon future.
Got it if I could just pick up on the last part there or what's your northern footprint Tcs customer outreach. There is that is this internal or is this within the oil and gas industry or is this outside the oil and gas industry as far as customer conversations are concerned.
It's all of the above Jeremy it's.
Both internal.
In terms of sector, but.
There's a lot of heavy industry up here that.
And it's a lot of Sidoti.
And again when you look at the current tax regime.
And the capital investments that some of these industries have.
This is a very viable and economical pathway for them to materially decarbonize their operations.
So.
There's there's lots of conversations in all sectors of the economy, the power sector of the industrial sector.
The account sector the AG sector.
This is very applicable so.
Yes, that's what makes me so excited about Jeremy.
And just.
Sorry no.
Go ahead.
And just to clarify when you say up here are you seeing Michigan or Appalachia northeast.
Yes, my apologies I am sitting in Detroit, So when I say up here I'm, referring to the northern footprint, So what I'll call.
From New York right through to the Midwest, where all of our assets are.
Got it very helpful. Thank you.
Your final question comes from Alex Kania with Wolfe Research Your line is open.
Thanks, Good morning.
You mentioned, just the active discussions still going on with the incremental leap expansion.
Are you be able to have any kind of color thinking about.
What the opportunity is maybe even with respect to timing do you think that it's fair to assume that would be something that may be coincides with the LNG capacity coming into play in the back half of the decade.
Or is there a chance that could happen earlier and then maybe if you could just talk a little bit just about what youre hearing with respect to LNG.
Terminal development right now.
Okay.
Thanks for the question Alex or.
Maybe I'll just start with just kind of going back to what I said on the earlier remarks.
For one of our anchor shippers, we extended half a bcf a day of their contract for five additional years.
And.
That makes that contract being a 15 year term contracts.
So I think that really spoke volumes to us of the importance of this asset is connectivity.
Whereas connecting the basin to the LNG corridor.
And the.
Just the strength in the LNG market here in North America period debt.
That that customer wanted to do that with us. So we're very encouraged by that.
In terms of the next wave of expansion on leap.
As I said in my opening remarks, we're in active conversations with a number of clients around that.
Yes.
We're.
Making a lot of headway over the last year in terms of.
Incrementally expanding.
As you would expect these are big commitments with customers that typically match up with commitments downstream of our assets.
They're long term contracts that have to be put together and.
And I always liken ourselves too.
In there we're at the high school dance and everyone's finding their dance partners and we're facilitating it.
By connecting the two counterparties together with the asset.
So it takes time.
So I don't want to I don't want to predict the time here.
I think we didn't give that at the time that it takes for good rational business to transact and we are confident that theres going to be more to come.
Our asset is well positioned.
And the way were doing the expansion we have a runway out to three Bcf a day with this asset.
And we can continue to expand in bite sized increments.
I think is very distinctive in the basin versus some of the other projects that are out there they require large scale commitments before they can.
So we're really encouraged about our position we're in the ground, we're flowing gas today and we're incrementally expanding this year and next year. So it's really really good about where we're sitting with leaf right now and.
And like I said I do expect more.
It's just.
We'll let the market decide the timing so.
Great. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time I will now turn the call back over to Mr. David Slater.
Well, thank you everybody and we truly appreciate your time and attention and interest in <unk> midstream.
Have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call you may now disconnect.
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Okay.
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